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Load and Price Forecasting based on Enhanced Logistic Regression in Smart

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 Load and Price Forecasting Based
on Enhanced Logistic Regression
in Smart Grid

Aroosa Tahir1 , Zahoor Ali Khan2 , Nadeem Javaid3(B) , Zeeshan Hussain2 ,

Aimen Rasool2 , and Syeda Aimal2
1
Sardar Bhadur Khan Women University Quetta, Quetta 87300, Pakistan
2
Computer Information Science, Higher Colleges of Technology, Fujairah 4114, UAE
3
COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
nadeemjavaidqau@gmail.com
http://www.njavaid.com/

Abstract. Smart Grid (SG) is a modern electricity grid that enhance

the efficiency and reliability of electricity generation, distribution and
consumption. It plays an important role in modern energy infrastruc-
ture. Energy consumption and generation have fluctuating behaviour
in SG. Load and price forecasting can decrease the variation between
energy generation and consumption. In this paper, we proposed a model
for forecasting, which consists of feature selection, extraction and classi-
fication. With the combination of Fast Correlation Based Filter (FCBF)
and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) is used to perform feature
selection to minimize the redundancy. Furthermore, Mutual Informa-
tion technique is used for feature extraction. To forecast electricity load
and price, we applied Naive Bayes (NB), Logistic Regression (LR) and
Enhanced Logistic Regression (ELR) techniques. Our proposed technique
ELR beats other techniques in term of forecasting accuracy of load and
price. The load forecasting accuracy of ELR, LR and NB techniques
are 80%, 82% and 85%, while price forecasting accuracy are 78%, 81%
and 84%. Locational Marginal Price of Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland
(LBM-PJM) market data used in our proposed model. Forecasting per-
formance is assessed by using RMSE, MAPE, MAE and MSE. Simu-
lation results show that our proposed technique ELR is perform better
than other techniques.

Keywords: Smart Grid · Naive Bayes · Logistic Regression ·

Fast Correlation Based Filter · Recursive Feature Elimination ·
Mutual Information

1 Introduction

Traditional Grid (TG) is an interconnection of many elements such as trans-

mission lines, distribution lines and different types of load. They are located far
from power consumption areas, so power consumption transmitted from long
c Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019
L. Barolli et al. (Eds.): EIDWT 2019, LNDECT 29, pp. 221–233, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-12839-5_21
222 A. Tahir et al.

transmission lines. Traditional power grid is old version of Smart Grid (SG).
SG precisely manage distribution, consumption and generation of energy which
introduce communication and control of technology in power grid [1]. Smart grid
helps the consumers to use electricity in secure manner. The new generation is
attached against the SG due to extensive shortage of energy during summer. It
suggest electricity consumers for load transferring and storage that can overcome
their power consumption cost [2]. SG creates connection between consumer and
utility. Customer consumes operation in SG for decreasing price by load shifting
and energy storage. Consumer can manage their demand of energy on Demand
Side Management (DSM) according to price variation [3]. Customer has choice
to minimize their electricity cost through energy control and shifting the load.
Consumer can switch the load and off depending on the electricity pricing. Com-
petitive market takes advantage from load and price forecasting. Many valuable
operational decisions are depends on load predication such as power reliability
analysis, maintenance planning and generation scheduling. Consumer takes part
in operation of SG that shifts the load from on-peak hours to off-eak hours.
In this paper, we highlight the electricity load and price problems, to solve
these problems we used many techniques. Machine learning methods works excel-
lent on data analytics, they categorize the data into training and testing step
by step. Feature selection is an important operation for classification and selects
important features. However, Feature selection have many common problems
in the process is that redundancy of selected feature is not minimizing. Fast
Correlation Based Filter (FCBF) and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) are
used as a solution of feature selection problem. Mutual Information (MI) feature
extraction method is used for feature reduction. We use two techniques Naive
Bayes (NB) and Logistic Regression (LR) classifiers that have better capability
of non-linear estimation and self learning. We proposed Enhance (ELR) classi-
fier that suitable for load and price forecasting. These methods are capable for
extract the complex data representation with better prediction. ELR has better
computation power when comparing it with LR. The objective of our paper is
to predict Load and price accurately using data analytics in the smart grid. For
this problem we use NB, LR and ELR to predict the best results of electricity
load and price forecasting.

1.1 Motivation
After reviewing papers [4,5], existing forecasting method have following motiva-
tions:
• Data analytics is not taken in the discussion of load and price forecasting
method. Performance Matrix is taken on the electricity price data which is
not enough large that minimize prediction.
• Intelligent methods such as ANN, SVM, DE and DWT have limited general-
ization capacity, they have fitting problem.
• Non-linear and other patterns of energy price is critical to predict with tra-
ditional data. The usage of data analytics make it feasible that generates the
pattern of data and predicts accuracy.
 Data Analytics Load and Price Forecasting in Smart Grid 223

• Automatically feature selection and extraction can efficiently extract and

select useful hidden patterns in the data (Table 1).

Table 1. List of abbreviations

Abbreviation Full form

ARMA Auto Regressive Moving Average
AI Artificial Intelligence
ANN Artificial Neural Network
DSM Demand Side Management
DE Differential Evaluation
DWT Discrete Wavelet Transformation
ELR Enhanced Logistic Regression
FCBF Fast Correlation based Filter
LR Logistic Regression
MI Mutual Information
MAPE Mean Average Percentage Error
MSE Mean Square Error
MAE Mean Absolute Error
MLR Multi Linear Regression
NB Naive Bayes
RFE Recursive Feature Elimination
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
SG Smart Grid
SVM Support Vector Machine
SNN Shallow Neural Network
SVR Support Vector Regression
TG Traditional Grid

1.2 Problem Statement

There is high variation between energy generation and consumption [6]. There is
no proper strategy of energy generation, which leads to extra energy generation.
To avoid spare energy generation, we perform forecasting. With the help of load
and price forecasting, generation of energy can be controlled with in the limits.

1.3 Contributions
This paper have major contributions such as:
• We implement a framework for achieving accurate load and price forecasting
by using the data analytics in SG.
224 A. Tahir et al.

• Feature selection, extraction and classification is proposed in our model to

solve the addressed problem.
• In feature selection, we combine FCBF and RFE which gives us importance
of feature selection. MI is used for feature extraction.
• Naive Bayes and LR classifiers are used for forecasting.
• However, we enhance LR to beat these two techniques.
• We have use the real world energy load and price data which performs better
simulation that have better results.

2 Related Work
In the paper [1] Data Analytics Demand response technique propose for res-
idential load. Data analytics scheme tested on PJM and Open Energy Infor-
mation and show that it minimizing the load. In this paper author forecast
day-ahead price forecasting, which contain six year long dataset and four auto
regressive expert model transformed price [2]. ANN present for price forecast-
ing, the focus is on the selection and preparation of fundamental data that has
effect on electricity price [4]. In this paper [5], author admit the effect of data
integrity attacks on the accuracy of four representative load forecasting model
such as Multiple Linear regression (MLR), Support Vector Regression (SVR),
ANN and Fuzzy Integration Regression (FIR). These models used to generate
one-year-ahead forecasting to provide the comparison of their forecast error. The
concepts of interaction for feature selection is introduce as Mutual Information
(MI) and Interaction Gain (IG). These techniques measure the feature relevancy
and redundancy, measures the load and price by merging them [6]. In [7] author
reduce the energy purchase from wholesale market at the high price with operat-
ing Behind The Meter Storage System (BESS). MI use for feature selection and
Intra Rolling Horizon (IRH) and Pre-Dispatch Price use for prediction. Forecast-
ing the electricity price, three models are used to merge the Random Forest (RF)
and Relief-F algorithm based on Gray Correlation Analysis (GCA) for feature
selection to eliminate the feature redundancy [8].
Kernel Function and Principle Component Analysis (KPCA) used for feature
extraction. Author use Differential Evaluation (DE) for price forecasting, which
based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Author hybrid the Discrete
Wavelet Transformation (DWT), Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and
Random Vector Functional Link Network (RVFL) Techniques to forecast the
short term load [9]. In paper [10], filter the feature by Stacked De-noising Auto-
Encoder (SDAs) from energy load to train the SVR for prediction. The day-
ahead load forecasting compare SVR and ANN, validates the performance for
improvement. Author combine the Kernel Extreme Learning Machine (KELM)
based on self-adapting (SAPSO) and (ARMA) [11]. Their experimental result
show that developed method has more accurate prediction. Multi variation MI
and SVR used for feature selection and price prediction [12].
These two methods also measure relation between price and load. Index
bad sample matrix (IBSM), Optimize Algorithm (OA) and Dynamic Choos-
ing (DCANN) are proposed for day-ahead price forecasting [13]. Proposed new
 Data Analytics Load and Price Forecasting in Smart Grid 225

feature strategy for short term load forecasting [17], uses for feature selection are
MI and Neural Network (NN) which remove unnecessary and redundant candi-
dates input. Data analysis is the way of predicting future value, if future stock
price will decreases or increases [18]. To predict the future price used prediction

Table 2. Summary of related work

Techniques used Objectives Dataset Achievement Limitation

DA [1] Peak load PJM and open Load forcasting Trading of user
Reduction by energy satisfaction in
analyzing the information response to the
consumption price for further
data of SH boost the saving
MAP, SVT [2] Price prediction EPEX, PJM, Electricity price Redundancy in
Nord Pool forecasting feature are not
describe
ANN [4] Develop ANN European Power Price forecasting Measured on
model for Exchange historical data
electricity (EPEX) and represented
forecasting from by connection
existing ANN weight
model
MLR, SVR, ANN [5] Retrive load Global electricity Load fecasting Data intergrated
forecasting forcasting attack in other
competition 2012 similer
forecasting feild
NN, SCA, MI [6] Short term Price PJM Price forecasting Redundant
prediction feature not
removed
IRH, MI [7] Efficient for price Ontario’s Price Redundant
forecasting electricity market feature not
removed
DWT, EMI, RVFL [8] Load prediction AEMO Load forecasted No good results
of time series for long term
data
RF, Relief-f, GCA, Price prediction HSEC Price forecasted KPCA cannot
KCPA, DE-SVM [9] model non-linear
data
SDAs, SVR, ANN [10] Compare SVR City or State of Load forecasting Feature reduction
and ANN and U.S do not remove
forecast load
SAPSO, ARMA, Price forecasting PJM Price forecasted Big data is not
KELM [11] used
IG, MI [12] Best Feature PJM Price forecasted More reduction
selection of features,
decreases the
accuracy score
Multi variate MI, Feature selection AEMO Measure relation Redundancy in
SVR [13] and price b/w price and features not
prediction load, Price eliminated
forecasted
IBSM, OA, DCANN Find the best PJM, AEM Price forecasting Limited for both
[14] parameter dataset
NB, ANN [17] Predict future Logs from yahoo Price forecasting This method can
Price using finance and store not be use for big
prediction in stock market data
concept
BR, NN, TB, GPR, Predict future WSHP Load forecasting Error arise
MLR [18] cooling load because of
weather change
226 A. Tahir et al.

concept. NB classifier use for prediction concept. Six performance indicators were
made for use to assess the prediction performance of 6 models [19]. In simulation
results display that precision of TB, GPR, NN, MLR and MAPE are compare
for load forecasting (Table 2).

3 System Model

Our proposed system consist of many steps such as: preprocessing of data and
splitting by training and testing, feature selection by RFE and FCBF, Feature
extraction by MI, and forecasting of load and price oerformed by three techniques
NB, LR and ELR shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. System model

3.1 Preprocessing

For electricity load and price forecasting, it is necessary to collect load and
price data that reflect the power usage of real world. In propose system model,
Locational Marginal Price Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland (LBMP PJM) 2015
to 2017 market dataset is used for load and price forecasting [20]. Three years
data is used and divided month wise, i.e. January 2015, January 2016, January
2017 etc. this dataset is a regional transmission organization, which is managed
by system operator, also responsible for whole sale energy market operations.
Data is categorized into three steps as training, validation, and testing. First
three weeks of month are used as training and last week for testing.

3.2 Methodology

We present two techniques RFE and FCBF method for feature selection. RFE
removes the weakest feature until the specific number of feature is reached. FCBF
works sequentially, where one feature is selected and then unusable features are
removed by the selected one. FCBF is not use as single algorithm, however
we combine other classifier with RFE for feature selection. MI that measure
the dependency between two variable train for each data, extract the selected
feature and remove the redundancy. After that Feature selection and extraction
have normalized data. The output of all features are combined and classified by
 Data Analytics Load and Price Forecasting in Smart Grid 227

NB and LR, when all weakest features are removed until the specified feature
is received and then formulate final prediction. We enhance LR to get better
result. Proposed model procedure can be concluded as:
• RFL and FCBF use for select the feature and MI to extract each feature into
several inputs.
• NB and LG used as classifier for each obtained sub-series.
• ELR used to comparison with these classifiers.
• The load data is split and normalized into categories as train, validation and
test.
• Training data is used for train the network and tested on validation data.
• Errors of prediction are calculated on data for validation.
• When network is tuned then update on new data.
• The network is tested on data, and predict the load and price. Prediction
performance is performed by RMSE, MAPE, MAE, and MSE.

4 Description of Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting the load and price many techniques use such as RFE, MI, FCBF,
NB and LR. Description of these techniques are as follows:

4.1 RFE
RFE is feature selection method that fits the model and remove the weakest fea-
ture until specific features are receive. RFE used to find best number of feature,
cross validation and calculate the different feature subset and select the best col-
lection of feature. Feature is selected in RFE by resourcefully considering smaller
set of feature. Firstly RFE model fits on data, after that we have many features
and its importance. We drop the feature with least importance, and then our
model fits on the remaining feature. Process is repeated many times until we get
best feature.

4.2 MI
MI used to detect the most applicable feature with less inessential information
and measure the quality between two random variables [14]. Two random vari-
able are a and b, which can be explained the information of b that we get by
studying a. a and b denoted by (a; b) as continuous variable. Defined as joint
probability distribution P (a; b) and individual probability distribution P(a) and
P(b).
SC = a1 , a2 , a3 ...an (1)
Where SC is set of conditional value and b is variable for forecasting. Appli-
cability of each input variable ai with target variable b, which is denoted by
Q(ai ).
Q(ai ) = |(ai ; b)| (2)
228 A. Tahir et al.

For example, if a and b are not dependent to each other, then b does not give
any information about a. so their mutual information can be zero.

4.3 FCBF

FCBF method is used for feature selection. Feature selection involves discrete
expression before calculating the feature. FCBF have two categories filter and
wrapper method. Filter method depend on the training data that select the fea-
tures without including the training data. The wrapper methods depend upon
the proposed algorithm in the feature selection and used to calculate and deter-
mine that which feature is selected. In filter method, use learning algorithm
from feature selection is RFE which work with SVM and use efficiently because
it show the dependency of them. In wrapped method, we use MI to guide the
search process to weight the feature.

4.4 NB

Naive Bayes is classification technique depend on bayes theorem. NB classifier

assume that the existence of specific feature in a class is separated to the exis-
tence of other feature. Bayes algorithm is used to calculate the posterior property.
NB easy to construct and useful for very large dataset. NB also perform well in
multi class forecasting. When assumption independent holds, NB perform better
than other model such as logistic regression.

4.5 LR

Logistic Regression used for evaluate the dataset in which there are many vari-
able that regulate an outcome. The outcome is measure with binary variable
in which there are only two dependent variables on outcome (true or false).

Algorithm 1. Algorithm of Naive Bayes.

Require: Input: [Training data P]
1: (F = (F1 , F2 , F3 ......Fn )) value of predict variation in the test data
2: Output: [Class of testing dataset]
3: Read the Training data P
4: Calculate the mean and Standard derivation
5: Predict the variable in each class
6: for i = 1 to P opulation do
7: Calculate the probability of Fi using distribution of each class;
8: Until the probability of all predictor variable;
9: (F1 , F2 , ...Fn ) has been calculated;
10: end for
11: end for
12: Calculated the probability of class
13: achieved the greatest result
 Data Analytics Load and Price Forecasting in Smart Grid 229

LR generates combination of formulas to predict the logit transformation of the

probability that being the characteristic of interest. LR algorithm use as perfor-
mance baseline because easy to implement many task.

Algorithm 2. Algorithm of Logistic Regression.

Require: Input: [Initialize the prediction as t = 0 to w = 0]
1:
2: for t = 1, 2, 3, ...n do
3: Compute the prediction gradient for (Xi );
4: For each example (Xi , Yi );
5: For each non Zero feature of Xi with index (Xj );
6: if j is not w, set w[j]=0 then
7: set w[j] = w[j] + ((Yi − Pi )Xj );
8: end if
9: end if
10: Update F
11: end for
12: end for
13: iterate to the next step until it is time to stop
14: Output: [of the feature is W.]

5 Results

Simulation results performed by python, daily electricity load data of LBM PJM
are taken of three year as input data for simulator. To achieve the accuracy of
load and price forecasting we are using three years electricity load and price data.
FCBF and RFE are used for feature selection. We apply these two techniques
which give us feature importance, control and grade of our feature. Every feature
in feature selection have sequence like vector. After feature selection we apply MI
for feature extraction. Mutual information measure the dependency between two
variables that used for training the data. To remove the redundancy of selected
feature we use MI. Feature that has effect on exact point are removed. After that
load and price data is normalized, Then we apply NB, LR and ELR classifier on

Fig. 2. Normalized load and price

230 A. Tahir et al.

load and price data. Data is divided into month wise and split into categories i.e.
train, validate and test. After that network is tuned and validated, then network
is tested the data. When we test the data then load and price is forecast.

5.1 Load Forecast

Firstly load data is used for training the forecast model. Data is splitting into
training and testing in which training is 225% and testing is 75%. Figure 2 shows
normalized load and price forecasting. Figure 3(a) Show one week prediction,
Fig. 3(b) Show one month prediction and Fig. 3(c) show all nine months (January
2015 to March 2015, January 2016 to March 2016 and January 2017 to March
2017) prediction. All the similar months data are trained in the same pattern. we
are comparing NB, LR with ELR for better prediction. Accuracy of NB is 80%,
LG 82% and ELR 85% shows that our proposed technique ELR beats other two
techniques.

5.2 Price Forecast

Price data is taken to forecast the price. Figure 4(a) Show one week prediction,
Fig. 4(b) Show one month prediction and Fig. 4(c) show all nine months (January
2015 to March 2015 etc.) prediction. All the similar months of the data are
trained in the same pattern. These graphs show that ELR performing better
than NB and LR. Accuracy of these techniques show that NB has 78%, LG 81%
and ELR 84%.

Fig. 3. Fig (a) shows one week prediction, fig (b) shows one month prediction, fig (c)
shows nine months prediction

Fig. 4. Fig (a) shows one week prediction, fig (b) shows one month prediction, fig (c)
shows nine month prediction
 Data Analytics Load and Price Forecasting in Smart Grid 231

6 Performance Evaluation
To measure the performance of load and price four indicators are used as: Root
Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean
Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Figure 5(a) shows the
comparison of load prediction and Fig. 5(b) shows the comparison of price pre-
diction. MSE has the lowest error value in ELR i.e., 0.784 in price forecasting
and 0.723 in load forecasting. Formulas of MAPE, RMSE MSE and MAE are
given in Eqs. 3, 4, 5 and 6.
T
1 
M AP E = |(s − Ys )| (3)
T n=1


 TM
1 
RM SE =  (Av − F v)2 (4)
T tm=1

TM
1 
M SE = (Av − F v)2 (5)
T tm=1

N
n=1 |(Fv − Av )|
M AE = (6)
N
Where AV is test value at time t and Fv is predicted value at time t. MSE has
less error than MSE, MAE and RMSE. Experimental results show that ELR
have better because it shows less error than other performance matrics.

Fig. 5. Error value comparison of load and price

7 Conclusion
In this paper, three year LBM-PJM 2015 to 2017 market data is taken for forecat-
ing the load and price. The proposed model comprises form data preprocessing,
selection, extraction and classification. We combine FCBF and RFE for feature
232 A. Tahir et al.

selection and MI for Extraction. After selection of our selected feature, we fore-
cast load and price with NB, LR and ELR techniques. We compare our proposed
technique ELR with NB and LR to get better result. Experimental results prove
the effectiveness of proposed ELG technique in forecasting. ELR beats other tech-
niques in term of forecasting accuracy. ELR, LR and NB techniques accuracy is
84%, 82% and 80%. Numerical results show that ELG based forecasting model
has lesser in MSE and MAPE than NB and LG. The feasibility of proposed ELR
model is confined by its performance that is well known in our data.

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