70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.

Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.

IAC-19-A3-1x50869

Global Prospects for Space Exploration: A Strategic and Economic Assessment

Natalia Larea Britoa*, Jan Clarence Deeb

a
Euroconsult, 465 McGill St, Montreal, Quebec H2Y 2H4, natalia.larrea.brito@euroconsult-na.com
b
Euroconsult, 465 McGill St, Montreal, Quebec H2Y 2H4, jcdee@euroconsult-na.com
* Corresponding Author

Abstract
Since the early beginnings of space exploration, the number of countries involved has expanded considerably. The
International Space Station (ISS) has been to date the largest international cooperation program. Up until now,
international partners have had difficulties establishing a common and sustained vision for the future of space
exploration beyond LEO orbit. This, however, is evolving as leading space agencies recognize the importance of
expanding a sustainable robotic and human presence on and around the Moon in the 2020s as a pathway to Mars in the
2030s. NASA and ISS partners have begun planning the design of a cislunar station (Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway)
as the next potential large international cooperation program. Concurrently, worldwide agencies plan future robotic
and manned missions to the Moon's surface. Governments also agree on the importance of maintaining a sustained
presence in LEO. NASA's future vision for LEO includes a sustainable U.S.-led commercial human spaceflight
marketplace. Meanwhile, China is developing its LEO space station. Robotic missions to Mars and other destinations
will also continue expanding our scientific knowledge and advancing technical capabilities in the next decade. In this
global context, world government investment in space exploration totalled $14.6 billion in 2017, a 6% increase
compared to 2016. Fifteen leading space programs worldwide are estimated to contribute to this global investment
with the U.S. accounting for 74% of the total. In a still constrained budgetary environment, global space budgets for
space exploration are expected to grow to over $20 billion by 2027. Growth factors include growing investments from
leading space programs to support Moon exploration and orbital infrastructure as the Moon become the next global
strategic priority, as well as increased funding in transportation programs to support future LEO and BLEO activities.
Space exploration, however, is attracting not only the interest of an increasing number of governments but also the
private sector; start-ups to large companies seek to exploit the commercial potential of exploration activities. Moving
forward, space agencies are increasingly seeking to leverage partnerships with the private sector to achieve their goals
more cost-effectively while fostering sustainable space exploration. This paper will provide an overview of
Euroconsult's market research report on the Prospects for Space Exploration. It will answer questions such as what are
the key trends in space exploration, who are the key commercial and government players, and government investment
by application, amongst others.

Keywords: Space exploration, Lunar Orbital Platform Gateway, Moon, Mars, International Space Station, economic
assessment
Acronyms/Abbreviations SLS Space Launch Systems
UAE United Arab Emirates
BLEO Beyond Low-Earth Orbit
CLPS Commercial Lunar Payload Services 1. Introduction
COTS Commercial Off-the-Shelf Space exploration has undergone a significant
CSA Canadian Space Agency transformation since the beginning of the space age.
ESA European Space Agency Recently, governments have turned their focus towards
ISECG International Space Exploration the moon on a coordinated effort to establish sustainable
Coordination Group robotic and human presence in the decade of the 2020s,
ISRO Indian Space Research Organization as a pathway to manned missions to Mars. This new
ISRU In-Situ Resource Utilization landscape is also characterized by new players from both
ISS International Space Station public and private entities as new frameworks are built
JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency around new international cooperation agreements and
LEO Low-Earth Orbit public-private partnerships (PPP).
LOP-G Lunar Orbital Platform – Gateway This paper provides an economic and strategic
NASA National Aeronautics and Space assessment of the space exploration sector. It includes an
Administration analysis and benchmark of government and commercial
PPP Public-Private Partnership space exploration programs worldwide. The paper also

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 70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.
Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.
identifies global trends related to space exploration, and
it analyzes collaborative undertakings for exploration,
including both international space agency partnerships as
well as public–private partnerships.
This paper provides a summary of Euroconsult’s
research report released in 2018 titled “Prospects for
Space Exploration” [1].
2. The Context of Space Exploration
Dictated initially by competition through the space
race and highlighted by a plethora of achievements
including the first manned spaceflight in 1961 and the
first Moon landing in 1969, space exploration continues
to evolve even today. Countries now involved in space
exploration include historical space players (the U.S.,
Russia), European countries, primarily through ESA,
China, Japan, Canada and India, and relatively newer
players such as the UAE and South Korea. To date, the
ISS has been the largest international cooperation
program, deemed as a significant milestone in human
presence in space. With the completion of the ISS,
international partners have been working to establish a
new common and sustained vision for the future of space
exploration beyond LEO orbit.
2.1 The Drivers of Space Exploration
The continuous desire of humankind to explore has
led to new discoveries, pushing the boundaries of society,
science and technology for centuries. It has largely
contributed to our understanding of the universe,
addressing the fundamental questions about the origins
or our planet, our solar system and ourselves. This desire,
initially driven by competition, has also been a source of
inspiration and national pride, spurring innovation and
knowledge creation, bringing additional indirect benefits
to other sectors on Earth. Space exploration is also
synonymous with prestige and a means of soft power for
governments, while fostering international collaboration
between nations and partnerships between governments
and industries.
Throughout the years, space has cemented its position
as the ultimate frontier for humankind with space
exploration increasingly considered to be the next natural
step in human evolution, attracting not only the interest
of governments but also more recently of the private
sector. Private entities see new commercial opportunities
as human and robotic presence expands across the solar
system.
2.2 A Vision for the Moon and the Future of LEO
The ISS has been to date the world’s largest
international cooperation program and the cornerstone
for human spaceflight. Looking forward, ISS funding is
secured by all international partners until 2024. Beyond
that date, the fate of the station has yet to be decided. This
is an on-going topic of discussion of international
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partners who, up to now, have had difficulties
establishing a common vision for the future of space
exploration. This, however, is evolving as space agencies
worldwide seem to converge on what the next priority
destination for human exploration beyond LEO should
be. As outlined in the 3rd Edition of the Global
Exploration Roadmap, leading space agencies recognize
the importance of expanding a sustainable robotic and
human presence on the Moon as a pathway to Mars.
NASA and ISS partners have begun planning the design
of a cislunar station (Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway
[LOP-G]). Concurrently, space agencies worldwide plan
for future robotic and manned missions to advance a
sustainable presence on the Moon.
At the same time, space agencies also coincide on the
importance of maintaining a sustainable human presence
in LEO. NASA’s future vision for LEO includes a
sustainable U.S.-led commercial human spaceflight
marketplace, where space agencies are among multiple
customers. Meanwhile, next-generation space stations in
LEO are planned on an independent basis by China and
commercial operators
Robotic missions to Mars and other destinations will
also continue expanding our scientific knowledge and
advancing technical capabilities in different areas, while
paving the path to potential future manned missions.
2.3 Towards an Era of Competition and Collaboration
In the last ten years, there has been a significant
increase in the number of private space exploration
activities. Companies from start-ups to large companies
seek to exploit the commercial potential of space
exploration, including through commercial space
stations, crew and cargo transportation, payload services
to the Moon or space resources utilization, among others.
Private funding is being raised at a level hardly seen
before, yet most commercial entities still seek support
from dedicated governmental initiatives. This rise of
commercial space exploration initiatives is having a
significant impact in the strategic planning of
governments, redistributing the cards between
government and industry in defining the agenda for space
exploration. Space agencies increasingly seek to leverage
partnerships with the private sector to achieve their goals
more cost-effectively while fostering sustainable space
exploration. This will open up new opportunities and
challenges, leading towards an increased collaboration
and competition in space exploration programs.
3. Government Programs in Space Exploration
Government involvement in space activities has dictated
the direction of space exploration since the dawn of
humankind’s presence in orbit. Up until today, space
exploration still is largely influenced by government
participation and now highlighted by international
collaboration.
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 70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.
Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.
3.1 The Importance of Cooperation
Space exploration provides a platform for
cooperation where the agencies can pool their resources
and expertise and share knowledge. As a global
endeavour, exploration is an opportunity to build new
relationships, including with newcomers that may
become important partners in the future. Cooperation is
becoming a key component of the stakeholders’
exploration strategy and roadmap:
• NASA’s Exploration Campaign seeks a sustained
return to the Moon as a pathway to Mars, in
collaboration with commercial and international
partners
• Establishing a global cooperative framework is an
objective of ESA’s exploration efforts
• Russia seeks international partnership for political
and financial reasons. Roscosmos is reinforcing ties
with ESA and is expanding to China.
• China is shifting toward cooperation to establish
leadership. Its space station will be open for the
international community.
• India has shown increasing interest in cooperation
with established space agencies as an accelerator for
its exploration program.
• The U.A.E. wants to expand collaboration for
knowledge transfer.
• Canada has a long-standing history of participation in
international missions, as it cannot afford to conduct
missions on its own.
• Luxembourg has signed several MoUs as part of its
new initiative to exploit space resources.
3.1.1 The Global Exploration Roadmap
In January 2018, the 15 space agencies participating
in the ISECG released the third edition of the Global
Exploration Roadmap, first published in September 2011
and subsequently updated in 2013. This non- binding
document details the current status of the coordinated
international efforts to prepare for space exploration
missions and expand human presence into the solar
system, including LEO orbit, the lunar vicinity and lunar
surface, and eventually Mars. The group of agencies,
which has grown over time, demonstrates the increasing
interest in space exploration and the fundamental need
for cooperation to realize individual and common goals
and objectives.
The 2018 Global Exploration Roadmap highlights the
shared importance of the Moon on the pathway to Mars.
It envisions, by the mid-2020s, a Lunar Orbital-Platform
Gateway (LOP-G) to be located in the lunar vicinity to
support manned and robotics missions on the Moon, as
well as future human exploration in the solar system. The
LOP-G is currently a NASA-led program together with
the ISS partners (ESA, CSA, JAXA and Roscosmos). It
is the next potential large international cooperation
program, post-ISS.
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3.2 Government Investments in Space Exploration
In 2017, global government investment in space
exploration totalled $14.6 billion, a 6% increase
compared to the 2016 figure, as can be seen on Figure 1.
Globally, fifteen leading space programs are primarily
estimated to contribute to this global investment (with the
U.S. accounting for 74% of the total). Global
expenditures have grown in the past five years, driven by
programs in leading countries and new countries
investing in space exploration. A brief summary of the
top five space exploration contributors is highlighted in
Table 1.
Future funding for space exploration is expected to
grow to support ambitious plans of the next decade, but
national investments will remain constrained by their
public finance environments that should dictate realistic
and pragmatic investment strategies. In a still constrained
budget environment, global space budgets are expected
to grow to $20.1 billion by 2027. Growth factors include
growing investments from leading space programs (U.S.,
China, Europe and Russia) to support Moon exploration
and orbital infrastructure as the Moon and cislunar space
become the next global strategic priority and increased
funding in transportation programs to support future LEO
and BLEO activities.
25 $US billion
PAST FORECAST
20
15
10
5
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Orbital infrastructure Moon exploration Other deep space
exploration
Transportation Mars exploration
Fig. 1. Government Funding Investment in Space
Exploration by Application (2013-2027)
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 70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.
Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.

Table 1. Sample of Leading Government Space Exploration Programs Strategic Priorities and Programs
Country Space Exploration Strategic Priorities Sample Programs/Mission
The Space Policy Directive-1, signed in 2017, directs NASA to work with • Lunar Orbital Platform –
international and commercial partners to refocus exploration efforts on the Gateway (LOP-G)
Moon, as a step toward manned missions to Mars and beyond. NASA’s • SLS/Orion
United space exploration strategic goals include: • Mars2020
States 1 - Transition U.S. human spaceflight in LEO to commercial operations;
2 - Extend long-duration U.S. human spaceflight operations to lunar orbit;
3 - Enable long-term robotic exploration of the Moon;
4 - Enable human exploration of the Moon as pathway to Mars.
As part of its willingness to develop an international leadership in space, • Chang’e
China has started a long-term manned space program through the • Shenzhou
development of its LEO space station, its Shenzhou/Tianzhou • Tianzhou
transportation programs, and its Moon exploration program, the last of
China which is a top priority. To this end, China’s long-term exploration lunar
strategy comprises a series of increasingly more capable robotic missions
under its Chag’e program. The next step, to be approved as part of the next
government Five-Year Plan 2021-2025, would establish a robotic research
station on the Moon for future manned missions in the 2030 timeframe.
ESA’s European Exploration Envelope Programme (E3P) consolidates • Contributions to LOP-G
ESA human and robotic exploration activities in three destinations (LEO, and Orion
the Moon and Mars). E3P covers the period 2017-2022 with four elements: • ExoMars
ESA 1 - Exploitation of LEO (including commercial partnerships); • BepiColombo
2 - Human missions beyond LEO (LOP-G and Orion programs); • JUICE
3 - Lunar exploration (international commercial partnerships);
4 - Robotic exploration of Mars (ExoMars program and others).
Japan has developed a space exploration roadmap focused on the Moon, • Contributions to LOP-G
levering the country’s technological capabilities for LEO and other deep • HTV-X
space projects. Its exploration program comprises three research areas • SLIM
Japan based on technological development: • MMX missions
1 - Exploration technology in a wide range of unexplored areas;
2 - Autonomous exploration technology to build on the Moon and Mars;
3 - ISRU technologies.
The government announced in 2015 a multi-decade space exploration • Luna program
program focusing on lunar exploration with a series of orbiters and landers. • Contributions to ExoMars
The program will count, along with the collaboration of ESA, as an • Soyuz
Russia extension of its current ExoMars partnership. Russian contribution to the
LOP-G program is being discussed. Roscosmos also seeks to develop the
next-generation Soyuz and Progress vehicles to support future LEO and
BLEO activities.

4. Public-Private Cooperation
As new visions for space exploration arise, an
evolving landscape for space exploration is emerging
characterized by greater collaboration between both
government and private stakeholders to conduct future
exploration activities.
4.1 Different Schemes for Public Private Cooperation
Space exploration missions have typically followed a
traditional “procurement scheme” where programs are
managed, owned and operated by governments who
procure technology from industry. This is still the case
for most countries and missions. However, as new
commercial models emerge and become mature, space
agencies (notably in the U.S. and Europe) are
increasingly looking to leverage partnerships with the
private sector for future exploration missions.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs)/ public-private
cooperation in space exploration, in a broad sense,
involves different framework schemes where the
government can adopt different roles:

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 70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.
Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.

• Government and private entities share costs, risks and
responsibilities, such as in the Commercial Orbital
Transportation Services (COTS) program.
• Partnerships where the government provides
technical support (expertise, access to facilities, etc.)
and/or acts as strategic partner with or without
exchange of funds (e.g., Lunar CATALYST Initiative
and ESA Commercial Partnerships Initiative).
• Full outsourcing to the private sector, the government
agency being a customer to a privately developed
solution (e.g., Commercial Resupply Services (CRS)
contracts following the COTS program).
A sample of programs in space exploration with different
public-private cooperation schemes is summarized in
Table 2.
Table 2. Examples of Programs in Space
Exploration with Different Public-Private
Cooperation Schemes
Agency Program Description
NASA Lunar Cargo NASA’s Lunar
Transportation CATALYST incentivises
and Landing the development of
by Soft commercial robotic lunar
Touchdown lander capabilities. In
(Lunar 2014, NASA entered into
CATALYST) three no-funds-exchange
SAAs with Astrobotic,
Masten Space Systems and
Moon Express.
Commercial NASA’s CLPS program
Lunar Payload seeks the procurement of
Services domestic end-to-end
(CLPS) commercial transportation
services for small payload
delivery to the Moon
through fixed priced
contract.
ESA ESA ESA’s role in these
Commercial commercial partnerships is
Partnership to act as a business partner
Initiative in developing new services
or capabilities on a non-
exchange of funds
principle. ESA provides
technical and strategic
support, as well as business
development support. It
can also co-fund
technology development
based on common interests
and be a customer of the
services/technologies
developed.
5. Commercial Activities in Space Exploration
The commercial ecosystem of space exploration
involves a wide range of established and emerging
players spanning from manufacturers (whether primes or
manufacturers of subsystems/components/software) to
service providers (cargo/crew transportation,
communication, exploitation space resources, etc.) in
different applications: from orbital infrastructure to
transportation to Moon, Mars and/or other deep space
exploration.
Historically, commercial organizations have engaged
as “manufacturers” of hardware/software for government
missions. New models are emerging (notably in the U.S.
and Europe) in which commercial organizations build,
own and operate their assets, and in which governments
(as well as other space and non-space commercial
entities) positions themselves as customers of services
and/or as strategic partners. This includes commercial
initiatives in LEO and beyond. For instance, the U.S.
commercial ISS resupply services are increasingly
becoming mature (Northrop Grumman, SpaceX and
Sierra Nevada are involved). SpaceX and Boeing will
soon start providing crew transport services. Companies
such as Bigelow and Axiom Space plan the operation of
commercial space stations and have used (or will use) the
ISS as a technology demonstration platform for their
commercial stations. Others such as NanoRacks,
MadeInSpace and SpaceApplications provide
commercial services on-board the ISS (microgravity
research, cubesat deployment, in-space manufacturing,
etc.). The number of companies targeting activities
beyond LEO have also grown significantly over the past
five years. This includes companies such as Moon
Express, Astrobotic and iSpace which target commercial
payload transportation services to the Moon or SpaceX,
with its Starship transportation system, amongst others.
Others such as Audacy, Atlas Ground and Goonhilly
Earth Station, aim to provide ground services on a
commercial basis to future space exploration missions.
These are only a few examples of the increasing number
of commercial organizations involved in space
exploration.
5.1 Potential Rise of Commercial Space Exploration
Missions in the Next Decade
A total of 19 planetary exploration missions were
launched over 2008-2017 by six countries (the U.S., ESA,
Russia, Japan, China, India), all government missions.
Over the next decade nearly 80 missions are expected to
be launched, of which 63% will correspond to
government missions. The next decade will also see the
rise of commercial exploration initiatives, with close to
30 potential commercial missions forecasted by 2027,
primarily driven by lunar initiatives. In terms of
applications, Moon exploration is expected to account for
the majority of missions (64% of the total) to be launched

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 70th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Washington D.C., United States, 21-25 October 2019.
Copyright ©2019 by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF). All rights reserved.
by 2027, as lunar exploration becomes the focus in the
strategy of private and public stakeholders. A total of 18
missions are anticipated to be launched for other deep
space exploration, while the remaining missions will be
dedicated to Mars exploration.
6. Conclusions
Space exploration has considerably evolved since the
beginnings of the space age. Since then, the number of
countries involved has expanded considerably.
The ISS continues to be a cornerstone program for
human spaceflight. Up until now, international partners
have had difficulties establishing a common and
sustained vision for the future of space exploration. This,
however, is evolving as space agencies worldwide seem
to agree on what the next priority destination for human
exploration beyond LEO should be. Leading space
agencies recognize the importance of expanding a
sustainable robotic and human presence on and around
the Moon in the 2020s as a pathway to Mars in the 2030s.
NASA and ISS partners have begun planning the
design of the LOP-G as the next international orbital
infrastructure program. Concurrently, worldwide space
agencies plan future robotic and manned missions to the
Moon’s surface. Governments also agree on the
importance of maintaining a sustained presence in LEO.
Meanwhile, China is developing its LEO space station.
Robotic missions to Mars and other destinations will also
continue expanding our scientific knowledge and
IAC-19-A3-1x50869
advancing technical capabilities, while paving the path to
potential future manned missions.
As a global endeavour, cooperation has become a key
component of public stakeholders’ exploration strategy
and roadmap moving forward, representing significant
opportunities but also challenges in the design of future
programs. Space exploration, moreover, is attracting not
only the interest of an increasing number of governments
but also the private sector. Start-ups to established private
organizations seek to exploit the commercial potential of
space as the human and robotic presence expands beyond
Earth. In a domain that has historically been fully
institutional, space agencies are increasingly seeking to
leverage partnerships with the private sector to achieve
their goals more cost effectively and to foster a
sustainable model for space exploration. The emergence
of such partnership schemes highlights the confidence of
international space organizations in the potential of a
thriving a LEO and lunar economy.
The next decade therefore, will be marked by the
emergence and consolidation of new government and
private players and programs. This will open up new
opportunities and challenges, leading toward an era of
both collaboration and competition in space exploration.
References
[1] S. Bochinger, N. Larrea Brito, Prospects for Space
Exploration, Euroconsult. 1st Edition (2018).
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