RRC PROJ-1196 Project Risk Management Assignment 3

Quantitative Risk Analysis

This assignment incorporates course content from Week 8 & 9

Simulation Model for Project Risk Management

Project Model using MS Project

(10marks)
Assignment 3: (5 marks)

Given the project model above, and the simulation data table on the next page:
Calculate and identify the:
a) median duration days (1 mark)
b) mean duration days (1 mark)
c) probability of completing the project in less than 50 days % (2
(1 marks)
mark)
(4 mark)
d) critical index for each activity (1 marks)

activity a b c d e f g h
critical index
(2mark)
e) critical index for each path (1 marks)

path abcf abdf abdgh abeh

critical index

Note: The assignment must be submitted in a printer-friendly manner; formatted to

one-page for a), b), c), d) and e); include a page title, your name, and date submitted
on each page. Submit the assignment as a single PDF file.

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RRC PROJ-1196 Project Risk Management Assignment 3

path path path path

Iteration a b c d e f g h
abcf abdf abdgh abeh
1 10 12 19 6 14 10 17 8 51 38 53 44
2 16 11 7 6 20 10 5 11 44 43 49 58
3 16 12 7 6 14 10 10 11 45 44 55 53
4 10 12 12 6 14 10 17 8 44 38 53 44
5 16 14 7 6 14 10 17 8 47 46 61 52
6 16 12 12 6 14 10 10 8 50 44 52 50
7 10 14 12 6 20 6 17 4 42 36 51 48
8 10 14 19 6 14 6 10 11 49 36 51 49
9 10 14 12 6 10 10 10 11 46 40 51 45
10 10 12 12 6 14 10 5 11 44 38 44 47
11 16 12 12 6 14 10 17 4 50 44 55 46
12 10 12 19 6 14 10 10 8 51 38 46 44
13 16 14 12 6 14 10 10 11 52 46 57 55
14 16 12 12 6 14 10 5 4 50 44 43 46
15 10 12 19 6 20 10 10 4 51 38 42 46
16 8 11 19 6 20 10 10 11 48 35 46 50
17 10 14 7 6 20 10 10 8 41 40 48 52
18 16 11 12 6 20 10 5 8 49 43 46 55
19 8 12 12 6 20 10 10 4 42 36 40 44
20 10 12 19 6 10 10 17 11 51 38 56 43
21 8 11 19 6 10 6 10 11 44 31 46 40
22 8 14 19 6 10 10 10 11 51 38 49 43
23 16 14 12 6 14 10 17 8 52 46 61 52
24 10 14 19 6 14 6 17 8 49 36 55 46
25 10 12 12 6 20 10 17 11 44 38 56 53

Monte Carlo Simulation using @Risk

Assumptions include:
- data table expressed in days, and a 7 day work week; and
- you are doing a manual calculation from the table above

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