Chap-5-Project Schedulling Control Techniques

Chap-5-Project Scheduling and Control Techniques BBC – II – Day & Evening
CHAPTER – FIVE
PROJECT SCHEDULING APPROACH AND CONTROL TECHNIQUES
WHAT IS PROJECT SCHEDULING?
Project scheduling is a process of laying out the actual jobs (work components, activities,
tasks) of the project in a time-order in which they have to be performed, that is, the tasks needed to
get done and which organizational resources will be allocated to complete those tasks in what
timeframe and when the project is due.
THE SEVEN PROCESSES (STEPS) OF PROJECT SCHEDULING
The following are the seven steps needed to schedule a project:
STEP-1-PLAN SCHEDULE MANAGEMENT
The process of establishing the policies, procedures, and documentation for planning, developing,
managing, executing, and controlling the project schedule.
STEP-2-IDENTIFICATION AND DEFINITION OF ACTIVITIES
Activity is a task or set of tasks that are carried out in order to create a deliverable. An activity
or task is an element of work normally found on the work breakdown structure (WBS) that has
expected duration, cost, and resource requirements. Note: The term ‘activity’ is used as a collection
of tasks, although in casual use ‘task’ and ‘activity’ are often used interchangeably.
Activity Identification involves identifying the specific activities and actions that must
be perform to produce the project deliverables in enough detail to determine resource and schedule
estimates. The work breakdown structure (WBS) is used to identify required project components
that are in turn used to, define the activities, organize them by mapping out the tasks necessary to
complete each of these project components.
Activity Definition. Activity definition includes a listing out each of the tasks to be
performed, this will result in an activity list.
The activity list is a tabulation of activities to be included on a project schedule. This table
includes, the Activity attributes that provide more information such as the; activity
identifier (ID) or number, activity name, activity description, predecessors, successors, task
relationships, leads, lags, resource requirements, constraints, imposed dates, & assumptions related
to the activity as demonstrated below.
Activity ID Activity Name Description Pred Dur Task R/ship Leads/Lags
1.0 A Requirements Analysis -
2.0 B Systems Design A 4
3.0 C Programming A,B 5
4.0 D System Testing C 6
5.0 E System Installation C,D 3
6.0 F System Handover E 2
A milestone is a significant point or event in time representing a key or important intermediate
event in the life of a project. A “measuring point”. A task with “0” zero duration and no resource
assignments. They’re useful tools for setting schedule goals and monitoring progress. E.g.; obtaining
customer sign-off on key documents or completion of specific products such as software modules.
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Prepared By DAK ©2018
Department of Applied Computing and Information Technology
Faculty of Computing and Informatics
Makerere University Business School
STEP-3-IDENTIFICATION OF ACTIVITY DEPENDENCIES

After defining project activities, the next step is activity sequencing or determining their
dependencies. Tasks are not an island, and often one cannot be started until the other is completed.
That’s called a task dependency, and your schedule is going to have to reflect these linked tasks.
A dependency or relationship is the sequencing of project activities or tasks that involves

identifying, specifying and documenting the relationships between project activities (tasks). E.g.
does a certain activity have to be finished before another can start? Can the project team do several
activities in parallel? Can some overlap?
The key benefit of this process is that it defines the logical sequence (relationships, linkages and
dependencies) of work to obtain the greatest efficiency.
Task Dependency
Activity ID Activity Name
Predecessor Successor
1.0 A - -
2.0 B A A-B
3.0 C A,B A-C & C-B
4.0 D C C-D
The Four Types of Task Interdependencies

a) Mandatory Dependencies, also known as hard logic are those that are contractually
required or determined by the nature of the tasks themselves. The order in which they are
performed flows from the activities’ definitions. For example; when building a three-story
building, the foundation and first floor infrastructure must be built before the second and third
floors can be added. The activities dictate the order of implementation.
b) Discretionary Dependencies also known as, soft or preferential logic

are dependencies defined by the project manager or team. There could be different reasons for
the proffered sequence of the project team like best practices or lessons learned from prior
experiences. E.g. plumbing and electrification must be finished before painting is done, the
project team may do plumbing first and electrification later or concurrently before painting is
done. The team decides on the order.
c) External Dependencies describe those tasks dependent on outside influences such

as vendors, parties outside of the project such as internal departments supplying information or
parts necessary for the project work, etc. These dependencies are outside of the project team’s
control. They represent risk to the project schedule. External dependencies involve relationships
between project activities and non-project activities.
d) Internal Dependencies are defined between two project activities. The Project team,
usually, has complete control over project activities. These are performed by the project TEAM
members. There is no involvement of any external party. i.e. They are within project team’s
control, based on relationship between project activities. For example, developing a system and
testing a system represent internal project tasks and related to each other as seen from above.
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Task Relationships
The relationships among tasks specifies the order and associations in which the predecessor tasks
and successor tasks need to be performed, by defining their finish and start dates.
Types of Task Relationships

There are mainly four types of relationship between activities and these include;
a) Finish-to-Start (FS) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity can’t start
until a predecessor activity has finished. E.g. Land must be purchased before road building starts.
Land Purchase
Road Building
b) Start-to-Start (SS) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot start

until a predecessor activity has started. E.g. building a foundation can’t start until digging has
started.
Foundation Digging
Foundation Building
c) Finish-to-Finish (FF) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot

finish until a predecessor activity has finished. E.g. Laying Tarmac must be complete before line
painting can be completed.
Laying Tarmac
Line Painting
d) Start-to-Finish (SF) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot finish

until a predecessor activity has started. E.g. the first security guard shift (successor) cannot finish
until the second security guard shift (predecessor) starts.
First Security Guard
Second Security Guard
NB: The most common dependency relationship is a finish-to-start

relationship. While, the least common relationship is the start-to-finish relationship.
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STEP-4-ESTIMATION OF ACTIVITY RESOURCES

Activity resources estimation is the process of estimating the type and quantities of material, human
resources, equipment, or supplies required to perform each activity. E.g. what human resources,
equipment and supplies you need, plus the quantity you need of each.
The key benefit of this process is that it identifies the type, quantity, and characteristics of resources
required to complete the activity which allows more accurate cost and duration estimates.
The main outputs of this process are activity resource requirements, a resource breakdown structure,
activity duration estimates and the project documents updates.
Resource Breakdown Structure (RBS)

In project management, the resource breakdown structure (RBS) is a hierarchical list of resources
related by function and resource type that is used to facilitate planning and controlling of project
work.
STEP-5-ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATION

Activity duration estimation involves estimating the number of total work periods
(activity durations) and effort that are needed to complete individual activities. The key benefit of
this process is that it provides the amount of time each activity will take to complete, which is a
major input into the develop schedule process.
(a) Activity duration is the total actual number of work periods plus elapsed time that is
required to complete a task. Usually expressed as workdays. For example; the painting task
requires 6 working days, therefore, the duration is 48 work hours or 6 work days.
(b) Elapsed Time is the total calendar time needed to complete a task. Elapsed time includes
weekends, holidays, vacations and breaks.
(c) Effort is the total number of labour units required to complete a scheduled activity. Usually
expressed as staff hours or rate. For example; the painting task requires 6 working days with 2
painters, which is equivalent to 96 person hours or 12 person days.
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Techniques to Estimating Activity Duration

The three tools to estimate activity duration are as follows:
a) Analogous Estimating is based on the information of the past project of similar nature
to derive an idea of entire current project duration estimation. This information is obtained from
the Project management department or organizational process assets (OPA).
For example, let’s say you have to estimate the duration of a school building project with the
help of the analogous estimating. In this case, you will look into your organizational process
assets (OPA) for any earlier school building project completed by your organization and pick the
best project, which looks similar to your project. Once you find a completed similar project, you
will compare it with your project and use your expert judgment to find the approximate time
duration for your project.
With the analogous method of estimating, you can estimate the duration of a project very quickly.
This process is not very accurate; however, it is very useful when there is very little information
available for the project and you have to estimate the duration as quickly as possible.
b) Parametric Estimating is somewhat similar to the analogous estimation because it also

uses the past records to compute the duration estimate, however, it is based on a statistical
calculation of historical data and other variables. If project is of similar nature that we had
performed in the past, it can be a best process to get estimation on the duration. It is an estimation
based on some unitary calculation from the historical data from the past project.
E.g., if constructing a 10ft. wall took one day, then how long will it take to build a hundred foot
wall? You will multiply the time taken to build a ten foot wall in the old project by ten.
c) Three Points Estimates originated from PERT (Program Evaluation and Review
Technique) that uses three time estimates to determine an approximate average duration of an
activity. This estimating is based on considering various options like the assignment of the
resources, uncertainty, and the risk associated, such as best scenario based and worst scenario
based.
The 3-point estimate is a weighted average technique to determine the approximate duration of
an activity that considers three various time estimates required to execute an activity instead of
a single time estimate, and these time estimates include;
i). Most Likely (Tm) is the time taken by an activity to finish it in most cases.
ii). Optimistic (To) is the time taken by an activity to finish it in the most favorable case.
iii).Pessimistic (Tp) is the time taken by an activity to finish it in the worst-case scenario.
Once you get these three estimates, you can calculate the estimated time estimate by using the
below given formula: Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6
The duration estimate obtained by this method is more accurate than the rest. Using three points
estimate reduces the chances of risks, bias judgment, and uncertainty.
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STEP-6-ASSIGNMENT AND ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

The last step to finalizing your planned schedule is to decide on what resources you are going to
need to get those tasks done on time. You’re going to have to assemble a team, and their time will
need to be scheduled just like the tasks.
STEP-7-DEVELOP THE PROJECT SCHEDULE

This is the process of analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource requirements, and schedule
constraints to create the project schedule model.
The key benefit of this process is that by entering schedule activities, durations, resources, resource
availabilities, and logical relationships into the scheduling tool, it generates a schedule model with
planned dates for completing project activities.
Techniques to Project Schedule Development

The most commonly used tool for project scheduling are; Bar chart, CPM, PERT and leads
and lags. These are discussed below;
1. GANTT CHART/ BAR CHART
This is a scheduling technique that was developed by Henry Gantt in 1920’s. It graphically depicts
project activities shown in a time scaled bar line showing the links between an activities in a calendar
format.
On the left of the chart is a list of the activities and along the top is a suitable time scale. Each activity
is represented by a bar; the position and length of the bar reflects the start date, duration and end
date of the activity, as shown below
An Example Illustrating a Gantt chart
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2. LEADS AND LAGS

Lead and Lag are used to Modify Relationships. Lead and Lag can be used with any relationship
type (FS, FF, SF and SS).
A lead is the amount of time whereby a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a
predecessor activity. For example, on a project to build new software, the coding could be scheduled
to start two weeks prior to the scheduled system design completion. This would be shown as a finish-
to-start with a two-week lead.
System Design
Coding FS – 2 Weeks (Lead)
A lag is the amount of time whereby a successor activity will be delayed with respect to a
predecessor activity. E.g., a technical writing team may begin designing a system 15 days after they
begin coding it. This can be shown as a start-to-start relationship with a 15-day lag.
System Design
Coding SS – 15 Weeks (Lag)
3. CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

Critical path method (CPM), or critical path analysis (CPA), is a network diagramming technique
used to calculate the minimum amount of time required to complete the entire project activities. The
critical path can either be determined using either the; Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) or Activity-on-
Node (AON).
THE CPM USING AOA NETWORK DIAGRAMMING TECHNIQUE
Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) diagram, also known as the Arrow diagramming method (ADM), is a
network diagramming technique that;
 Graphically depicts project activities (tasks) by arrows and;
 Connects them (tasks) at nodes (events) identified by a number depicted as circles or rectangles;
 That shows the dependency logical relationships between tasks/ activities in a project.
Note the following about AON:
(a) The AON only supports only F-S relationship and outdated with current software.
(b) ADM sometimes require the use of “Dummy tasks”. A Dummy task is an imaginary activity
with no duration, used to show either an indirect relationship between 2 tasks or to clarify the
identities of the tasks.
In AOA, each activity must be uniquely defined by its beginning and ending point. When two
activities begin and end at the same time, a dummy activity (an activity which begins and ends
at the same time) is inserted into the model to distinguish the two activities.
Dummy Activities are inserted in the diagram as dashed lines, to show “Dummy
Relationships” that maintain all logical relationships correctly. They consume zero
resources.
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Example on CPM using AOA diagrams

Activity table showing the activity precedence relationships.
Activity Name Activity Description Predecessors Time (Weeks)
A Build internal components - 2
B Modify roof and floor - 3
C Construct collection stack A 2
D Pour concrete and install frame A,B 4
E Build high temperature burner C 4
F Install pollution control system C 3
G Install air pollution device D,E 5
H Inspect and test F,G 2
Total Time (25 Weeks)
Solution
Step – 1: Develop the AOA Diagram
Step – 2: Identify all the paths on the network diagram

Basing on the AOA diagram above, the project has 4 paths;
i). Path 1: A-C-F-H
ii). Path 2: A-C-E-G-H
iii). Path 3: A-D-G-H
iv). Path 4: B-D-G-H
Step – 3: Finally add up the duration of all those activities on each path to obtain the critical path.
For example; from the above AON network diagram indicates that the total time required to
complete all the project activities is 25 weeks. However since some activities can take place
simultaneously, it is clear that the total project completion time is less than 25 weeks.
i). Path 1: A-C-F-H: Length = 2+2+3+2 = 9 Weeks
ii). Path 2: A-C-E-G-H: Length = 2+2+4+5+2 = 15 Weeks
iii). Path 3: A-D-G-H: Length = 2+4+5+2 = 13 Weeks
iv). Path 4: B-D-G-H: Length = 3+4+5+2 = 14 Weeks
The Critical Path for the above project is: Path A-C-E-G-H whose Length is 15 Weeks.
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What is the Critical Path?

Critical path represents a sequence of scheduled activities through the project network diagram that
includes a set of activities which will take the longest time to complete.
Note on the Critical Path
i). Even though the critical is the longest path, it represents the shortest or earliest time required to
complete the entire project activities.
ii). Activities on the Critical Path are called “Critical Activities” while activities not on the
critical Path are called “Non Critical Activities”
iii).Critical activities have no float or slack, i.e. least amount of delays, i.e. if one or more of the
activities on the critical path takes longer than planned, the whole project schedule will slip
unless, i.e. any delays along the critical path requires additional time to complete the project.
iv). A project can have more than one critical paths and it can change as the project progresses.
v). To shorten the project duration, a scheduler must modify the critical path activities or
dependencies.
THE CPM USING AON NETWORK DIAGRAMMING TECHNIQUE

Activity-on-Node (AON) diagram, also Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) is a method of
constructing a project schedule network diagram that;
 Uses boxes or circles, referred to as nodes,
 Where each node is connected to its successors by an arrow indicating their mutual dependency
or relationship.
Note the following about AON:

(a) It is more popular than ADM method and used by project management software, because it is
better at showing certain all types of task relationships (FS, SS, SF, and SF) while AOA allows
only for the finish to start relationship.
(b) There’s no use of a dummy activity to represent a dummy relationship.
Example on CPM using AON diagrams

Activity table showing the activity precedence relationships.
Activity Name Activity Description Predecessors Time (Weeks)
A Build internal components - 2
B Modify roof and floor - 3
C Construct collection stack A 2
D Pour concrete and install frame A,B 4
E Build high temperature burner C 4
F Install pollution control system C 3
G Install air pollution device D,E 5
H Inspect and test F,G 2
Total Time (25 Weeks)
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Solution
Step – 1: Develop the AON/PDM Diagram
Note the following

1. In the above diagram, there two activities (A and B) that don’t have any predecessors, we shall
draw separate nodes for each of these activities.
2. Although not required, it is usually convenient to have a unique starting activity for the project,
we must therefore include a dummy activity, called start. Activity start is an immediate
predecessor for both activities (A and B) and for the entire project.
3. There is no need for the use of dummy activities in AON representation.
Step – 2: Make a Forward Pass

A forward pass is a technique to move forward through a diagram to calculate for the earliest-times
an activity can start (ES) and finish (ES). The forward path proceeds from the most left node in the
network and moves to the right, putting the calculations inside the shaded boxes to the left.
Certainly, the general rule is that, all successor activities can start only after the latest predecessor
is finished.
i). Earliest start (ES) is the earliest time at which a succeeding activity can start, assuming all
predecessors have been completed without any delays or changes.
Calculating the ES
ES is computed as the EF of the previous activity. If the activity has two immediate predecessors,
we take, then its ES is derived as largest of the EF times of two immediate predecessors
ii). Earliest finish (EF) is the earliest time at which an activity can be finished.
Calculating the EF
The EF = Predecessor ES time + Expected successor activity time.
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Step – 3: Make a Backward Pass

A backward pass is a technique to move backward through a diagram to calculate for the latest-time
an activity can start (LS) and finish (LF). The backward path proceeds from the end node to the
starting node of the AON network, putting the calculations inside the right side boxes adjacent to
the nodes.
i). Latest finish (LF) is the latest time by which an activity has to finish so as not to delay the
completion time of the entire project.
Calculating the LF
If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a just a single succeeding activity, its LF is the
LS of that activity that immediately follows it. If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more
than one activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all succeeding activities it.
ii). Latest start (LS) is latest time at which an activity can start so as not to delay the completion
time of the project.
Calculating the LS
LS is computed as the difference of that activity finish time and its activity time. LS = LF -
Activity time.
A graphical notation showing the activity node and all the task times (ES, EF, LS, and LF)
WBS Code Activity Name
ES EF
Activity Duration
LS LF
55Float
An example of a PDM (AON) Diagram showing the computation of ES, EF, LS, and LF
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Step – 4: Determine the free float (slack) for each activity

After computing the earliest and latest times for all activities, next is to find the amount of slack time
that each activity has.
i). Free Slack (Float) is the amount of time that a scheduled activity (or milestone) can be
delayed without delaying the next (succeeding) activity in the network.
Therefore, when you delay a given activity, it only reduces its slack time, but doesn’t affect the
slack of another activity on network.
Formula for Computing for the free Slack (Float) Time

This can be done by Slack = LS – ES, or Slack = LF – EF.
Generating a table detailing the ES, EF, LS, LF, float and activities on the critical path
Forward Pass Backward Pass Slack or Float
Activity On Critical Path
ES EF LS LF LS – ES or LF - EF
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
Note: Activity B, for example, has 1 week of slack time, this means that it can delayed by up to
1 week and the whole project can still be finished in 15 weeks
What is Total Float (Slack)?

The total slack (float) is the total amount of time that a scheduled activity (or milestone) may
be delayed or extended without delaying the project end date or violating a schedule constraint.
Determining the total slack

Consider activities B & D, which both have a slack of 1 week each, does it mean that we can
delay each activity by 1 week, and still complete the project in 15 weeks?
The answer is NO.

If B is delayed by 1 week, it will use up its slack of 1 week, hence, its EF will now become 4
from 3 weeks, this will affect D, the succeeding activity’s ES from 3 to 4 Weeks and EF of 8
weeks from 7 weeks. You will note that, these are its LS and LF values respectively, therefore
D has lost its slack time now.
That slack of 1 week B & D had on that path is shared and called total slack. Whose delay,
delays other tasks.
What is Negative Float (Slack)?

This is the amount of time that by which a critical activity (or milestone) misses a required date.
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Step – 5: Identify all the Critical Activities

The critical activities on a PDM diagram are those activities with zero slack or float time on the
network diagram. Therefore these activities must never be delayed.
So, from the above table, activity A, C, E, G and H have no slack. So this means none of them can
be delayed without delaying the entire project. Conversely, if the project manager decides to reduce
the length of the total project time, she will also have to reduce the length of one of these activities.
EXERCISE QUESTIONS
Question – One
For the project data in the following table, answer the following questions:
a) Draw an AOA and AON network of the project
b) Perform forward path and backward path calculations
c) What is the effect of delaying activity D by 3 days?
ACTIVITY DURATION IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR
A 2 -
B 6 A
C 3 A
D 1 B
E 6 B
F 3 C,D
G 2 E,F
Total 23
Question – Two
Perform PDM calculations for the small project below and determine activity times. Durations are
shown on the activities.
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4. PROGRAM EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a network diagramming technique or tool
used for planning and scheduling the many interrelated tasks in a large and complex project. It was
developed in the late 1950’s by Booz, Allen and Hamilton (management consultants) for the U.S.
Navy used for the planning and control of the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on
completing the program in the shortest possible time. This project was one of the most complex tasks
ever attempted at the time having thousands of contractors.
Nowadays PERT techniques are routinely used in project management for non-repetitive jobs and
large-scale projects such as software development, building construction, etc. where the time
estimates (multiple time estimates) tend to be quite uncertain (probabilistic activity time estimates).
Implementation of the PERT
Under the CPM technique, the project manager is able to determine (a single time value estimate)
exactly how long each activity would be executed, this is known as the ‘deterministic approach’,
because everything is completely under the decision maker’s control.
However, the distinguishing feature of the PERT is its ability to deal with uncertainty in activity
completion times, where for each activity, it relies on the input of three probability time estimates
required to compute the expected time for each task other than relying on a single time estimate.
The 3-time estimates include;

(a) Optimistic time (Ot) is an estimate of the minimum or shortest time required for an activity
if exceptionally good luck is experienced. This is the Best case-scenario.
(b) Most likely time (Mt) is the most reasonable completion time for each task that has the
highest probability. This is the Normal scenario.
(c) Pessimistic time (Pt) is the longest duration an activity might require. It occurs when
everything goes wrong or bad luck is experienced. This is the Worst-case scenario.
Deriving the formula that computes for the probability-based expected time (Et)
The expected time (Et) for each activity can be approximated using the following weighted
average formula;
Ot + 4*Mt + Pt
Expected Duration for each Task (Et) =
6
This formula as the sum of (optimistic + most likely x 4 + pessimistic) divided by 6. Complete
this calculation for all tasks.
Determine the Standard Deviation (SD) and Task Variance
Since the activity duration called the expected meantime (Et) is associated with uncertainty,
it is therefore expressed either as the standard deviation (SD) or the variance (V) of the
duration.
Standard deviation (SD) is the average deviation from the estimated time. It is given
by the following formula;
Pt – Ot
Standard Deviation for each Task (SD) = 6
NB: As a general rule states, the higher the standard deviation the greater the amount of
uncertainty
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Task Variance is the measure of certainty, that is, the spread of value over a normal
distribution
Task Variance is given by V=SD2 (Standard deviation squared)

2
PT – OT
Which is = .
6
STEPS IN THE PERT PLANNING PROCESS

1. Step – 1: Identify and define the specific activities (tasks) and milestones.
2. Step – 2: Determine the proper sequence of the activities.
3. Step – 3: Construct a network diagram (either AOA or AON).
4. Step – 4: Generate the time estimates required for each activity.
i). The optimistic, pessimistic, most likely, and expected time.
ii). The Standard deviation and variance.
5. Step – 5: Determine the critical path by determining the earliest and latest times.
6. Step – 6: Determine the probability of meeting the expected specified project scheduled date.
EXAMPLE ON USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

Use the following list of activities and answer questions that follow;
Activity Time Estimates
Activity Pred Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time
Ot) Mt Pt
A - 4 5 9
B - 3 6 15
C A 3 4 5
D A 2 7 9
E B,C 3 5 7
F D 6 8 13
G D,E 1 3 11
Total Time 22 38 69
Required:
(a) Calculate the total estimated time, standard deviation, task variance, and critical path.
(b) What is the probability of completing the project in 25 days?
(c) What is the scheduled completion date if it is desired to have probability of completion of 90%?
(d) How many days would you estimate that are required to complete the project in case the project
manager wanted a 90% chance of being right?
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SOLUTION TO THE ABOVE EXAMPLE ON USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

Step-1 and 2. Assuming steps 1 and 2 have been completed begin calculations use a table to organize
your calculations.
Step-3. Develop the AOA or AON diagram.
D
2 4
F
A
C dummy
1 6
B
E G
3 5
Step-4. Use the weighted average method and calculate the Estimated Time, Standard
Deviation and Variance for each task.
Time Estimates
Activity Pred Expected time SD Variance
Ot Mt Pt
A - 4 5 9 [4+(5*4)+9]/6 = 5.5 [(9-4)/6] = 0.83 [(9-4)/6] 2 = 0.694
B - 3 6 15 [3+(6*4)+15]/6 = 7.0 [(15-3)/6] = 2.00 [(15-3)/6] 2 = 4.000
C A 3 4 5 [3+(4*4)+5]/6 = 4.0 [(5-3)/6] = 0.33 [(5-3)/6] 2 = 0.111
D A 2 7 9 [2+(7*4)+9]/6 = 6.5 [(9-2)/6] = 1.17 [(9-2)/6] 2 = 1.361
E B,C 3 5 7 [3+(5*4)+7]/6 = 5.0 [(7-3)/6] = 0.67 [(7-3)/6] 2 = 0.444
F D 6 8 13 [6+(8*4)+13]/6 = 8.5 [(13-6)/6] = 1.17 [(13-6)/6] 2 = 1.361
G D,E 1 3 11 [1+(3*4)+11]/6 = 4.0 [(11-1)/6] = 1.67 [(11-1)/6] 2 = 2.778
Total Time 22 38 69 40.5 6.67 10.750
Note: When doing manual PERT Calculations it is helpful to construct a table to stay organized.
Step – 5: Determine the critical path by determining the earliest and latest times.
A table showing the earliest and latest times that are used to determine the critical path
Time Estimates Early Times Late Times Slack/
Activity Pred. Et SD Variance
Ot Mt Pt ES EF LS LF Float
A - 4 5 9 5.5 0 5.5 0 5.5 0 0.83 0.694
B - 3 6 15 7.0 0 7 4.5 11.5 4.5 2.00 4.000
C A 3 4 5 4.0 5.5 9.5 7.5 11.5 2 0.33 0.111
D A 2 7 9 6.5 5.5 12 5.5 12.0 0 1.17 1.361
E B,C 3 5 7 5.0 9.5 14.5 11.5 16.5 7 0.67 0.444
F D 6 8 13 8.5 12 20.5 12 20.5 0 1.17 1.361
G D,E 1 3 11 4.0 14.5 18.5 16.5 20.5 4 1.67 2.778
Total Time 22 38 69 40.5 6.67 10.750
Note the following:
Note – 1: The Slack or float is given by = LS – ES, or Slack = LF – EF.
Note – 2: Notice that the mean times can be above, below, or equal to the most likely times.
Note – 3: The total expected project completion time is 20.5 days, which is the total of expected
time for all critical activities (A-D-F).
Page 16 of 20
The PERT AOA network diagram depicting the expected time, ES, EF, LS and LF
The expected time for each activity is copied onto the network and used to calculate the ES, EF, LF, and
LS, as in:
Step – 6: Determine the probability of meeting the expected specified project scheduled date.
Since the project completion time is simply the sum of the expected activity times for the critical
path activities. Therefore, to determine the probability of meeting the desired completion date
(particular dead-line), we use the normal distribution table. This is because, the project completion
time is the mean of a normal distribution, and we can use the Normal Distribution Table.
Below is a picture of the normal distribution for the project, with the mean of 20.5.
Computing for the normal distribution requires two pieces of information or parameters. The first is
the mean, and the second is the variance or standard deviation and we have all that
already computed.
The formula for probability Computation is given by;
Due Date – Mean
Z=
Standard Deviation
Where:
Due date = (proposed) specified time or due date
Mean = project mean time for only the critical activities
Standard deviation = project standard mean time is the square-root of the total variance for only
the critical activities
Page 17 of 20
Solution
What is the probability of completing the project in 25 days?
The desired completion time which is 25 days
The project mean time which is 20.5 days
The project standard mean is the √𝟑. 𝟒𝟏𝟕 which is for 1.8484
25 – 20.5
Z= = 2.434
1.8484
Reading the Z values from the normal distribution table, so look up to the border of the table, we
find that the probability of being between the mean and 2.43 is = 0.9925, which means that we have
over 99% chance of being done by 25 days, which is pretty good.
The figure below indicates the Normal Distribution of Project time.
NB: From the figure above, we are looking for the area between the total expected completion date
and the desired date. The area marked by Z.
How many days would you estimate that are required to complete the project in case the project
Now, we are going to do everything in reverse. This time, the project manager wants to know a range
of due dates, so that there is a stated probability of being done within that range, for example, a 90%
probability.
From the probability computational formula;

Due Date – Mean
Z=
Standard Deviation
Basing on the table of pre-computed cumulative probabilities of normal distribution, we can see that for
a 98% chance, our Z = 2.00.
Therefore, the Due Date = Z * Standard Deviation + Mean

The due date at 90% probability = 2.00 * 1.8484 + 20.5 = 24 days
Page 18 of 20
Page 19 of 20
EXERCISE QUESTIONS
Question – One
Use the network diagram below and tabulate the list of tasks involved with their respective activity
duration and interdependencies. Develop a Gantt chart for this project based on the SF task
relationship.
Question – One
Time Estimates (Weeks)

Activity Description Pred
Ot Mt Pt
A Prepare initial design - 1 3 5
B Identify new potential clients - 4 5 12
C Develop prospectus for tenants A 2 3 10
D Prepare final design A 1 8 9
E Obtain planning permission D 1 2 3
F Obtain finance from bank E 1 3 5
G Select contractor D 2 4 6
H Construction G,F 10 17 18
I Finalize tenant contracts B,C,E 6 13 14
J Tenants move in I,H 1 2 3
Required:
(a) Schedule the project using the AOA and AON technique
(b) What is the probability of completing the project in 36, 34, 32, 30, 28 weeks? Perform a
sensitivity analysis to determine the probability estimates.
(c) How many weeks would you estimate that are required to complete the project in case the project
(d) What are the chances of reaching event 4 by 13th Week?
(e) The contract schedule allows 18 weeks in which to complete the entire project. What are the
chances that the Project WILL NOT be finished on time?
Page 20 of 20

Chap-5-Project Schedulling Control Techniques

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Chap-5-Project Scheduling and Control Techniques BBC – II – Day & Evening

STEP-3-IDENTIFICATION OF ACTIVITY DEPENDENCIES

A dependency or relationship is the sequencing of project activities or tasks that involves

The Four Types of Task Interdependencies

b) Discretionary Dependencies also known as, soft or preferential logic

c) External Dependencies describe those tasks dependent on outside influences such

Types of Task Relationships

b) Start-to-Start (SS) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot start

c) Finish-to-Finish (FF) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot

d) Start-to-Finish (SF) is a logical relationship in which a successor activity cannot finish

First Security Guard

Second Security Guard

NB: The most common dependency relationship is a finish-to-start

STEP-4-ESTIMATION OF ACTIVITY RESOURCES

Resource Breakdown Structure (RBS)

STEP-5-ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATION

Techniques to Estimating Activity Duration

b) Parametric Estimating is somewhat similar to the analogous estimation because it also

STEP-6-ASSIGNMENT AND ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

STEP-7-DEVELOP THE PROJECT SCHEDULE

Techniques to Project Schedule Development

2. LEADS AND LAGS

Coding FS – 2 Weeks (Lead)

Coding SS – 15 Weeks (Lag)

3. CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

Example on CPM using AOA diagrams

Step – 2: Identify all the paths on the network diagram

What is the Critical Path?

THE CPM USING AON NETWORK DIAGRAMMING TECHNIQUE

Note the following about AON:

Example on CPM using AON diagrams

Note the following

Step – 2: Make a Forward Pass

Step – 3: Make a Backward Pass

WBS Code Activity Name

Step – 4: Determine the free float (slack) for each activity

Formula for Computing for the free Slack (Float) Time

What is Total Float (Slack)?

Determining the total slack

The answer is NO.

What is Negative Float (Slack)?

Step – 5: Identify all the Critical Activities

4. PROGRAM EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)

The 3-time estimates include;

Task Variance is given by V=SD2 (Standard deviation squared)

STEPS IN THE PERT PLANNING PROCESS

EXAMPLE ON USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

SOLUTION TO THE ABOVE EXAMPLE ON USING THE PERT TECHNIQUE

The figure below indicates the Normal Distribution of Project time.

From the probability computational formula;

Therefore, the Due Date = Z * Standard Deviation + Mean

Time Estimates (Weeks)

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