Isle Royale Research Paper

[Name of the Student]

[Name of the Insti tuti on]
[Date of Submission]
 Isle Royale Research Paper 2

Abstract
An experiment has been carried out in the SimBio Isle Royale Wolves simulation lab that
compared the health of moose with wolves present to the health of moose with wolves absent. A
small difference between the samples was observed. However, it does indicate that moose have
greater fat stores in presence of wolves. The difference could be due to the chance although
related to wolves. A healthy moose may have been selected accidentally at one time and an
unhealthy moose at the other. The two species considered in this study are moose and wolves.
The density of the two species strongly depends on the density of forage. To test the hypotheses,
statistics were considered to acquire a good estimate. To acquire significant answers, inferential
statistics were used. To decide whether or not the presence of wolves had a significant impact on
moose fat stores, a simple statistical test (t-test) was conducted. Moose and wolves are the
organisms that are being studied and they are residing in Isle Royale which is isolated by the
frigid waters of Lake Superior and a remote wilderness island. Moreover, the study site is Isle
Royale National Park that is made up of 400 islands. It is situated in the northwest portion of
Lake Superior. Lastly, in the future research study, the relationship between another prey and
predator besides (wolf and moose) can be studied. Some other prey and predator relationships
that can be considered are lead and grasshopper, lettuce and rabbit, and berry and rabbit, ants and
ant lions.
 Isle Royale Research Paper 3

Table of Contents
Abstract............................................................................................................................................2
1.0. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................4
Q. 1a) What is the subject area of interest for your paper?..........................................................4
Q. 1b) What are two examples in the literature of the topic?......................................................4
Q. 1c) What is your study system/species?..................................................................................5
Q. 1d) What are your hypothesis and prediction?........................................................................5
Q. 1e). In general terms, what measurements did you take to test the hypothesis?.....................5
2.0. MATERIALS & METHODS...................................................................................................6
Q. 2a). What organisms are you studying and where are they located?......................................6
Q. 2b) Describe the location and characteristics of the study site...............................................6
Q. 2c). What type of data did you record/collect from how many samples and in what different
“treatments”?................................................................................................................................7
Q. 2d). How did you analyze the data? (e.g. calculations, statistical tests, comparisons among
treatments)....................................................................................................................................7
RESULTS........................................................................................................................................7
Q. 3a). What is the mean fat store (kg) in moose when wolves are i) absent and ii) present?....7
Q. 3b) Create a bar chart in Excel that represents the mean fat content in the two different
treatments (wolves absent/present)..............................................................................................8
Q. 3c) Are the differences in fat stores significant based on the t-test?.......................................9
DISCUSSION..................................................................................................................................9
Q. 4a). State whether or not your results support your hypothesis?............................................9
Q. 4b). Describe whether or not your results agree with other studies. Include your reference
study within your response........................................................................................................10
Q. 4c). Suggest a possible next step in the research study.........................................................10
REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................11
 Isle Royale Research Paper 4

1.0. INTRODUCTION
Q. 1a) What is the subject area of interest for your paper?
Isle Royale is home to populations of moose and wolves, isolated by the frigid waters of
Lake Superior and a remote wilderness island (Isleroyalewolf.org, 2021). Their deaths and lives
are historic and timeless as prey and predatory. It is important to understand the ecology of
predation and what that knowledge can teach us about our relationship with nature. In 1958, the
study of wolves and moose started 1958 and is considered one of the longest-running studies of
its type. To study the prey-predator system, conditions for a unique natural experiment are
provided by the isolation of the island. Isle Royale is huge enough to support a wolf population,
however, it is small enough to allow scientists to maintain a track record of all of the moose and
wolves on the island (Peterson, 1999). Moose is the main diet of wolves apart from beaver. For
ecologists, the island has become a very useful study system due to the comparison between
relative lacks of complicating factors on Isle Royale to the mainland.
Q. 1b) What are two examples in the literature of the topic?
For example, the accuracy of predictions for Isle Royale moose and wolf populations is
comparable to those for long-term financial markets and weather. After 50 years of close
observation, it has been found that every 5-year period in the history of Isle Royale has been
different from every other five-year period (Nelson, Peterson and Vucetich, 2008). There were
major differences between the first 25 years of the chronology from the second 25 years.
Continuous observation is the only solution. In the history of Isle Royale moose and wolves,
some of the most important events have been unpredictable events like immigrant wolves, severe
winters, tick outbreaks, and disease.
Another example is of nature perceived as a system whose future is predictable. It makes
humans confident in their efforts of managing and controlling nature. Human’s relationship with
nature can be rooted strongly in striving to live within the boundaries of beautifully dynamic
variation of nature if humans are impressed by Nature’s unpredictable character (Nelson et al.,
2011). To fuel an obsession with controlling nature, humans can be proud of their knowledge
about nature. The moose and wolves of Isle Royale show it is not difficult to be proud of what
humans have learned about nature however they must accept they still have limited
understanding about them.
 Isle Royale Research Paper 5

Q. 1c) What is your study system/species?

The two species considered in this study are moose and wolves. In the 1970s there was a
steady increase in the population of wolves in the Isle Royal National Park. The population
reached a peak of 50 wolves by 1980. However, in 1980-1982 there was a population crash
followed by the stabilization of wolf numbers at 20-24. During the 1960s similar level was
witnessed. However, after a lag of two to three years, there was an increase in the numbers of
wolves due to the proliferation of reproducing packs. In the 1990s, both the moose and the
wolves first became established populations on Isle Royale. The populations of both wolves and
moose have shown repeated declines and spikes. The number of wolves has ranged from almost
50 whereas, the moose populations have ranged from 500 to 2500 (Page, 1990). In an attempt to
bring back the wolf population, wolves have been released in 2018 at Isle Royale. The density of
the two species strongly depends on the density of forage. Aspen trees and birch are preferred
mostly by moose. Whereas, Moose makes up 9/10ths of the diet of Isle Royale's wolf.
Q. 1d) What are your hypothesis and prediction?
An experiment has been carried out in the SimBio Isle Royale Wolves simulation lab that
compared the health of moose with wolves present to the health of moose with wolves absent. A
small difference between the samples was observed. However, it does indicate that moose have
greater fat stores in presence of wolves. The difference could be due to the chance although
related to wolves. A healthy moose may have been selected accidentally at one time and an
unhealthy moose at the other. It eventually gives rise to two main hypotheses.
The null hypothesis of the study is:
H01: There are no real differences in the mean fat scores of moose when wolves are absent
versus present.
The alternative hypothesis of the study is:
HA1: There is an effect of wolves on moose fat stores.
The difference in samples arises from chance under the null hypothesis.
Q. 1e). In general terms, what measurements did you take to test the hypothesis?
To test the hypotheses, statistics were considered to acquire a good estimate. To acquire
significant answers, inferential statistics were used. To decide whether or not the presence of
wolves had a significant impact on moose fat stores, a simple statistical test (t-test) was
conducted. Moreover, the core ideas underlying the t-test were also focused on such as alpha
 Isle Royale Research Paper 6

levels, standard errors, sampling distributions, and random variables. The difference in means
relative to the variability observed was also examined to know which hypothesis supports the
samples.

2.0. MATERIALS & METHODS

Q. 2a). What organisms are you studying and where are they located?
Moose and wolves are the organisms that are being studied and they are residing in Isle
Royale which is isolated by the frigid waters of Lake Superior and a remote wilderness island.
Intimate details of daily life experiences also have been revealed frequently by the moose and
wolves of Isle Royale. In the early 20th century, Moose first came to Isle Royale and their
numbers fluctuated with food abundance and weather conditions for 50 years. In 1940, wolves
first arrived by crossing an ice bridge from Canada (Hedrick et al., 2019). A spinal deformity has
been carried and the wolves have been subject to inbreeding. In 2015 there were only 9 wolves
on the island. Around 20 to 30 wolves were introduced to the island by the National Park Service
in 2016. One male and three females from Minnesota were transferred to the island system in
2018.
Q. 2b) Describe the location and characteristics of the study site.
The study site is Isle Royale National Park that is made up of 400 islands. It is situated in
the northwest portion of Lake Superior. From the Canadian shore, it is 19 km (12 miles) away
and from Michigan's shore, it is about 80 km (50 miles) away. With an area of 205 square miles
(530 km2), the main island is about 14 km (9 miles) wide and 72 km (45 miles) long at the
widest point. On the island, no motorized vehicles and no roads are allowed. The island is only
accessible by providing watercraft, seaplane, or ferry (Mlot, 2018). From September to May, the
park is closed during which the only human residents on the island are the wolf-moose study
personnel. In the state of Michigan, Isle Royale National Park is an American national park
comprising hundreds of surrounding waters of Lake Superior as well as adjacent islands. In
1940, the Isle Royale National Park was founded. In 1980, a UNESCO International Biosphere
Reserve was declared by it. With 685 squares miles of surrounding waters and with 209 square
miles of land, around 894 square miles are covered by the park. One can witness Isle Royale by
standing on the Lake Superior shore and looking towards the east or by traveling on Route 61 to
the farthest reaches of Minnesota. Just south of the border between the USA and Canada, this
forested and remote island sits uninhabited and isolated 15 miles off of the northern shore of
 Isle Royale Research Paper 7

Lake Superior. A small group of pioneering and hardy moose swimming from the mainland
across open water also have been witnessed if one would have been standing in a similar spot by
the lake in the early 1900s.
Q. 2c). What type of data did you record/collect from how many samples and in what
different “treatments”?
An experiment was carried out in the SimBio Isle Royale Wolves simulation lab to
compare the health of moose with wolves present or absent. A small difference between the
samples was observed. The sample may have varied due to the accident selection of an unhealthy
moose at one time or a very healthy moose at another. However, the difference in means between
the two samples cannot be known. In this study, the health of moose was the dependent factor
whereas the presence or absence of wolf is the independent factor.
Q. 2d). How did you analyze the data? (e.g. calculations, statistical tests, comparisons
among treatments).
The data was analyzed with the help of inferential statistics to help in answering the
research questions well and in better uncovering the truth. A simple statistical test is known as a
t-test also has been performed to decide whether nor not the presence of wolves made a
significant impact on the fat stores of moose. Further to find out which hypothesis is supported
by samples, the difference in the variability observed and in means, relative were examined. The
hypothetical graphs were considered. Support to the null hypothesis can be seen if there is a lot
of variability in the data sets that are being compared. However, the difference may be real if
there is a large difference in means compared to the amount of variability in the data. This
intuition is formalized by a statistic called ’t’. It is also calculated as a ratio of the difference in
means to the amount of variability. The 'a' and 'p' subscripts were also used to refer to the energy
of moose with wolves absent v. present.

RESULTS
Q. 3a). What is the mean fat store (kg) in moose when wolves are i) absent and ii) present?
The alternative hypothesis is that there is an effect of wolves on moose fat stores,
whereas, the null hypothesis is that there is no real difference in the mean moose fat stores when
wolves are absent versus present. Fat stores data for two groups of adult male moose is presented
by the below-provided table. Moose that forage in an area of Isle Royale with no predators or
wolves is presented on the left as the first sample. Moose that forage in an area where wolves
 Isle Royale Research Paper 8

prey on moose is presented on the right as the second sample. The fat stores for five moose can
be estimated with the labelling of Fat (x) that is estimated as fat stores in body weight and
kilograms.
Wolves Absent Wolves Present
Moose Fat (x) Moose Fat (x)
1 43 1 76
2 49 2 68
3 14 3 52
4 57 4 38
5 31 5 62
6 19 6 81
2 2
Xa 35.5 Xp 62.83
The difference in mean fat stores between moose with wolves absent and with wolves present
(Xp – Xa) = (62.83 – 35.5) = 27.33
Q. 3b) Create a bar chart in Excel that represents the mean fat content in the two different
treatments (wolves absent/present).

Wolves Absent

1
5%
10% 2
29% 3
14% 4
5
6

24% 19%
 Isle Royale Research Paper 9

Wolves Present

1
5%
10% 2
29% 3
14% 4
5
6

24% 19%

Q. 3c) Are the differences in fat stores significant based on the t-test?
Wolves Absent Wolves Present
Moose Fat (x) x-xa (x-xa)2 Moose Fat (x) x-xp (x-xp)2
1 43 7.5 56.25 1 76 13.1666667 173.3611111
182.2
2 49 13.5 5 2 68 5.16666667 26.69444444
462.2 -
3 14 -21.5 5 3 52 10.8333333 117.3611111
462.2 -
4 57 21.5 5 4 38 24.8333333 616.6944444
-
5 31 -4.5 20.25 5 62 0.83333333 0.694444444
272.2
6 19 -16.5 5 6 81 18.1666667 330.0277778
xa 35.5     xp 62.8333333    
the sum of square
differences 1455.5 the sum of square differences 1264.833333
      SE 9.52      
      t 2.87      
The null-hypothesis for your t-test is that there is no real difference in moose fat stores between
the moose population with wolves present and the moose population with wolves absent.
 Isle Royale Research Paper 10

DISCUSSION
Q. 4a). State whether or not your results support your hypothesis?
Since the t value is greater than 2 then the difference in means is large in comparison to
the amount of variability in the data. It supports the alternative hypothesis. There is an effect on
moose fat stores between the moose population with wolves present and the moose population
with wolves absent. A greater t-values also presents a higher p-value. In this case, the value of t
is higher which also shows that the differences did not result from any chain. A huge difference
presents between the two samples sets is also presented by higher values of the t-value. The
differences between the groups are also indicated by a huge t-score.
Q. 4b). Describe whether or not your results agree with other studies. Include your
reference study within your response.
Similar to moose and wolves, the prey and predator relationship between ant lions and
ants was studied by Hollis (2017). To study the role of co-evolution in behaviour, a useful model
was provided by common prey (ants) and pit-digging larval ant lions. Another example of how
selection pressures are imposed by species that are specific ecological niche and results in unique
behavioural adaptations is provided by the behavioural ecological approach to the relation
between ants and pit-digging larval ant lions. With a minimum expenditure of energy depending
on both learned behaviour and hard-wired, preys are captured by ant lions. In ant lions, the
learned predatory behaviour is adapted uniquely to their sedentary lifestyle. Ant lion pits can be
avoided by ants. The role played by learning in evolutionary arms races is revealed by the prey-
predator relationship in ant lions and ants.
Q. 4c). Suggest a possible next step in the research study
In the future research study, the relationship between another prey and predator besides
(wolf and moose) can be studied. Some other prey and predator relationships that can be
considered are lead and grasshopper, lettuce and rabbit, and berry and rabbit, ants and ant lions.
Secondly, some other sites of study can be considered. For example, the study can investigate the
relationship between a sloth and a jaguar in the tropical rainforest. Another example is of
considering the sea as the study side and exploring the relationship between terrestrial and
aquatic predators and marine mammals.
 Isle Royale Research Paper 11

REFERENCES
Hedrick, P.W., Robinson, J.A., Peterson, R.O. and Vucetich, J.A., 2019. Genetics and extinction
and the example of Isle Royale wolves. Animal conservation, 22(3), pp.302-309.
Hollis, K.L., 2017. Ants and antlions: The impact of ecology, coevolution and learning on an
insect predator-prey relationship. Behavioural processes, 139, pp.4-11.
Isleroyalewolf.org, 2021. About The Project: Overview | The Wolves and Moose of Isle Royale.
[online] Isleroyalewolf.org. Available at:
<https://isleroyalewolf.org/overview/overview/at_a_glance.html> [Accessed 29 March
2021].
Mlot, C., 2018. Classic wolf-moose study to be restarted on Isle Royale.
Nelson, M.P., Peterson, R.O. and Vucetich, J.A., 2008, January. The Isle Royale Wolf-Moose
project: fifty years of challenge and insight. In The George Wright Forum (Vol. 25, No.
2, pp. 98-113). George Wright Society.
Nelson, M.P., Vucetich, J.A., Peterson, R.O. and Vucetich, L.M., 2011. The Isle Royale Wolf–
Moose Project (1958-present) and the wonder of long-term ecological
research. Endeavour, 35(1), p.31.
Page, R.E., 1990. The inverted pyramid: ecosystem dynamics of wolves and moose on Isle
Royale.
Peterson, R.O., 1999. Wolf–moose interaction on Isle Royale: the end of natural
regulation?. Ecological Applications, 9(1), pp.10-16.