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School District of Pickens County, SC

Demographic Study Report: December 2021


85+

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59
50-54

45-49
40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

7,000 3,500 0 3,500 7,000


SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1
Introduction 2
Data 2
Assumptions 3
Methodology 4
References 5
Appendix A: Supplemental Tables 6
Appendix B: Population Forecasts 9
Appendix C: Population Pyramids 16
Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts 23
Appendix E: IRS Data 48
Appendix F: Live-Attend Analysis and Maps 50
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Executive Summary

1. The resident total fertility rate for the Pickens County Schools over the life of the forecasts is below replacement level. (1.79 vs.
the replacement level of 2.1)

2. Most non-college in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44-year-old age groups.

3. The local 18-to-24-year-old population continues to leave the district, going to college or moving to other urbanized areas. This
population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10
years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.

4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to increase over the next 10 years is the slowing of the increase in empty nest
households, the relatively high number of elderly housing units turning over coupled with a sustained rate of in migration of
young families.

5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next ten years will primarily be due to large cohorts entering and moving through
the school system in conjunction with smaller cohorts leaving the system.

6. The elementary enrollment will slowly increase over the next five school years.

7. The median age of the district’s population will increase from 36.7 in 2020 to 39.0 in 2030.

8. Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate,
magnitude, and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and
enrollment change.

9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 64 students, or 0.4%, between 2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment will
increase by 550 students, or 3.4%, from 2026-27 to 2031-32.

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INTRODUCTION future enrollment. It is quite possible to calculate special


“scenario” forecasts to measure the impact of school policy
By demographic principle, distinctions are made modifications as well as planned economic and financial
between projections and forecasts. A projection extrapolates the changes. However, in this case the results of these population
past (and present) into the future with little or no attempt to and enrollment forecast are meant to represent the most likely
consider any factors that may impact the extrapolation (e.g., scenario for changes over the next 10 years in the district and its
changes in fertility rates, housing patterns or migration attendance areas.
patterns) while a forecast results when a projection is modified The first part of the report will examine the
by reasoning to consider the aforementioned factors. assumptions made in calculating the population forecasts for
To maximize the use of this study as a planning tool, the School District of Pickens County. Since the results of the
the goal is not simply to project the past into the future, but population forecasts drive the subsequent enrollment forecasts,
rather to assess various factors’ impact on the future. The future the assumptions listed in this section are paramount to
population and enrollment change of each school district is understanding the area’s demographic dynamics. The
influenced by a variety of factors. Not all factors will influence remainder of the report is an explanation and analysis of the
the entire school district at the same level. Some may affect district's population forecasts and how they will shape the
different areas at dissimilar magnitudes and rates causing district's grade level enrollment forecasts.
changes at varying points of time within the same district. The
forecaster’s judgment, based on a thorough and intimate study DATA
of the district, has been used to modify the demographic trends
and factors to predict likely changes more accurately. The data used for the forecasts come from a variety of
Therefore, strictly speaking, this study is a forecast, not a sources. The School District of Pickens County provided
projection; and the amount of modification of the demographic enrollments by grade and attendance center for the school years
trends varies between different areas of the district as well as 2017-18 to 2021-22. The historic enrollment was geo-coded to
within the timeframe of the forecast. the student’s home address and then summed to establish the
To calculate population forecasts of any type, enrollment given the new elementary boundaries. Birth and
particularly for smaller populations such as a school district, death data for the years 2000 through 2018 were obtained from
realistic suppositions must be made as to what the future will the South Carolina Department of Health. The net migration
bring in terms of age specific fertility rates and residents’ values were calculated using Internal Revenue Service
demographic behavior at certain points of the life course. The migration reports for the years 2000 through 2018. The data
demographic history of the school district and its interplay with used for the calculation of migration models came from the
the social and economic history of the area is the starting point United States Bureau of the Census, 2005 to 2010, and the
and basis of most of these suppositions particularly on key models were designed using demographic and economic
factors such as the age structure of the area. The unique nature factors. The base age-sex population counts used are from the
of each district's and attendance area’s demographic results of the 2010 Census.
composition and rate of change over time must be assessed and Recently the Census Bureau began releasing annual
understood to be factors throughout the life of the forecast estimates of demographic variables at the block group and tract
series. Moreover, no two populations, particularly at the school level from the American Community Survey (ACS). There has
district and attendance area level, have the same characteristics. been wide scale reporting of these results in the national, state,
The manifest purpose of these forecasts is to ascertain and local media. However, due to the methodological problems
the demographic factors that will ultimately influence the the Census Bureau is experiencing with their estimates derived
enrollment levels in the district’s schools. There are of course, from ACS data, particularly in areas with a population of less
other non-demographic factors that affect enrollment levels than 60,000, the results of the ACS are not used in these
over time. These factors include, but are not limited to transfer forecasts. For example, given the sampling framework used by
policies within the district; student transfers to and from the Census Bureau, each year only 1,600 of the over 56,500
neighboring districts; placement of “special programs” within current households in the district would have been included.
school facilities that may serve students from outside the For comparison 7,000 households in the district were included
attendance area; state or federal mandates that dictate the in the sample for the long form questionnaire in the 2000
movement of students from one facility to another (No Child Census. As a result of this small sample size, the ACS survey
Left Behind was an excellent example of this factor); the result from the last 5 years must be aggregated to produce the
development of charter schools in the district; the prevalence of tract and block group estimates.
home schooling in the area; and the dynamics of local private To develop the population forecast models, past
schools. migration patterns, current age specific fertility patterns, the
Unless the district specifically requests the calculation magnitude and dynamics of the gross and net migration, the
of forecasts that reflect the effects of changes in these non- current age specific mortality trends, the distribution of the
demographic factors, their influences are held constant for the population by age and sex, the rate and type of existing housing
life of the forecasts. Again, the main function of these forecasts unit sales, and future housing unit construction are considered
is to determine what impact demographic changes will have on primary variables. In addition, the change in household size

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relative to the age structure of the forecast area was addressed. migration trend will remain unchanged into the future. This
While there was a slight drop in the average household size in pattern of migration shows most of the local out-migration
the School District of Pickens County as well as most other areas occurring in the 18-to-24-year-old age group as young adults
of the state during the previous 20 years, the rate of this decline leave the area to go to college or move to other urbanized areas.
has been forecasted to slow over the next ten years. The second group of out-migrants is those householders aged
70 and older who are downsizing their residences. Most of the
ASSUMPTIONS non-college in-migration occurs in the 0-to-9 and 25-44 age
groups (the bulk of which come from areas within 100 miles of
For these forecasts, the mortality probabilities are held constant the School District of Pickens County) primarily consisting of
at the levels calculated for the year 2010. While the number of younger adults and their children.
deaths in an area are impacted by and will change given the As the Pickens County area is not currently
proportion of the local population over age 65, in the absence of contemplating any major expansions or contractions, the
an extraordinary event such as a natural disaster or a forecasts also assume that the current economic, political, social,
breakthrough in the treatment of heart disease, death rates and environmental factors, as well as the transportation and
rarely move rapidly in any direction, particularly at the school public works infrastructure (with a few notable exceptions) of
district or attendance area level. Thus, significant changes are the School District of Pickens County and its attendance areas
not foreseen in district’s mortality rates between now and the will remain the same through the year 2031. Below is a list of
year 2031. (At this point in time, there is insufficient data of the assumptions and issues that are specific to the School District of
geographic and age level impacts of COVID-19 on mortality Pickens County These issues have been used to modify the
rates. We assume that most areas will return to their traditional population forecast models to predict the impact of these factors
mortality rate levels by 2022.) Any increases forecasted in the more accurately on each area’s population change.
number of deaths will be due primarily to the general aging of Specifically, the forecasts for the School District of Pickens
the district’s population and specifically to the increase in the County assume that throughout the study period:
number of residents aged 65 and older.
Similarly, fertility rates are assumed to stay constant a. The national, state, or regional economy does not go
for the life of the forecasts. Like mortality rates, age specific into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of
fertility rates rarely change quickly or dramatically, particularly the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four
in small areas. Even with the recently reported rise in the consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater
fertility rates of the United States, overall fertility rates have than 1% per quarter)
stayed within a 10% range for most of the last 40 years. In fact,
most of the year-to-year change in an area’s number of births is b. Interest rates have reached a historic low and will not
due to changes in the number of women in childbearing ages fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short
(particularly ages 20-29) rather than any fluctuation in an area’s term; the interest rate for a 30-year fixed home
fertility rate. mortgage stays below 4.5%;
The resident total fertility rate (TFR), the average
number of births a woman will have while living in the school c. The rate of mortgage approval stays at 2015-2020 levels
district during her lifetime, is estimated to be 1.79 for the and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage
total district for the ten years of the population forecasts. A practices;
TFR of 2.1 births per woman is considered the theoretical
“replacement level” of fertility necessary for a population to d. There are no additional restrictions placed on home
remain constant in the absence of in-migration. Therefore, mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major
in the absence of migration, fertility alone would be credit providers;
slightly below the level needed to maintain the current
level of population and enrollment within the School e. The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125%
District of Pickens County over the course of the forecast of the 2015-2020 average of Pickens County for any
period. At the current TFR and given the number of women in year in the forecasts;
prime childbearing age in the district (ages 20–34-year-old), the
district will consistently see the number of total resident f. All currently planned, platted, approved, and
births be on average over 40 lower than the average permitted housing developments are built out and
enrollment in grade one. completed by 2029. All new housing units constructed
A close examination of data for the School District are occupied by 2031. Speculative new home
of Pickens County has shown the age specific pattern of construction plans are not included.
net migration will be nearly constant throughout the life
of the forecasts. While the number of in and out migrants has g. The average annual unemployment rates for the
changed in past years for the School District of Pickens County Pickens County and the Greenville Metropolitan Area
(and will change again over the next 10 years), the basic age will remain below 7.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;
pattern of the migrants has stayed nearly the same over the
last 30 years. Based on the analysis of data it is safe to assume
this age specific

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h. The intra-district student transfer policy remains dramatic population changes that could not be foreseen at the
unchanged over the next 10 years; time the forecasts were calculated.
The high proportion of high school graduates from the
i. The rate of students transferring out of the School School District of Pickens County that attend college or move to
District of Pickens County will remain at the 2015-16 to urban areas outside of the district for employment is a
2020-21 average; significant demographic factor. Their departure is a major
reason for the extremely high out-migration in the 18-to-24-age
j. The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per group and was considered when calculating these forecasts.
year for the 10 years of the forecasts; The out-migration of graduating high school seniors is expected
to continue over the period of the forecasts and the rate of out-
k. The state of South Carolina does not change the current migration has been forecasted to remain the same over the life
policy on open enrollment or school vouchers anytime of the forecast series.
in the next 10 years; Finally, all demographic trends (i.e., births, deaths, and
migration) are assumed to be linear in nature and annualized
l. There will be no building moratorium within the over the forecast period. For example, if 1,000 births are
district; forecasted for a 5-year period, an equal number, or proportion
of the births are assumed to occur every year, 200 per year.
m. Businesses within the district and the School District of Actual year-to-year variations do and will occur, but overall
Pickens County area will remain viable; year to year trends are expected to be constant.

n. There are no charter schools opened in the district METHODOLOGY


anytime over the next 10 years;
The population forecasts presented in this report are
o. The number of existing home sales in the district that the result of using the Cohort-Component Method of
are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than population forecasting (Siegel, and Swanson, 2004: 561-601)
the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of (Smith et. al. 2004). As stated in the INTRODUCTION, the
total homes sales in the district for any given year; difference between a projection and a forecast is in the use of
explicit judgment based upon the unique features of the area
p. Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the under study. Strictly speaking, a cohort projection refers to the
district) will remain at their current levels. The future population that would result if a mathematical
majority of existing home sales are made by extrapolation of historical trends. Conversely, a cohort-
homeowners over the age of 60; component forecast refers to the future population that is
expected because of a studied and purposeful selection of the
q. The district will have at least an average of 2,300 components of change (i.e., births, deaths, and migration) and
existing home sales per year for the next 10 years; forecast models are developed to measure the impact of these
changes in each specific geographic area.
r. The district will have at least an average of 350 new Five sets of data are required to generate population
single-family housing units constructed per year over and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are:
the next 10 years;
1. a base-year population (here, the 2010 Census
s. Private school and home school attendance rates will population for the School District of Pickens County
remain constant; and its attendance areas);

t. The rate of foreclosures for commercial property 2. a set of age-specific fertility rates for the district to be
remains at the 2015-2020 average for Pickens County. used over the forecast period and its attendance areas;

If a major employer in the district or in the Pickens 3. a set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for the
County or the Greater Greenville Metropolitan Area district and its attendance areas;
(particularly in western part of the metropolitan area) closes,
reduces or expands its operations, the population forecasts 4. a set of age-specific migration rates for the district and
would need to be adjusted to reflect the changes brought about its attendance areas; and;
by the change in economic and employment conditions. The
same holds true for any type of natural disaster, major change 5. the historical enrollment figures by grade.
in the local infrastructure (e.g., highway construction, water and
sewer expansion, changes in zoning regulations etc.), a further The most significant and difficult aspect of producing
economic downturn, any additional weakness in the housing enrollment forecasts is the generation of the population
market or any instance or situation that causes rapid and forecasts in which the school age population (and enrollment) is

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embedded. In turn, the most challenging aspect of generating school district level is estimated to be +2.0% for the life of the
the population forecasts is found in deriving the rates of change forecasts.
in fertility, mortality, and migration. From the standpoint of
demographic analysis, the School District of Pickens County is REFERENCES
classified as a “small area” population (as compared to the
population of the state of South Carolina or to that of the United McKibben, J.
States). Small area population forecasts are more complicated The Impact of Policy Changes on Forecasting for
to calculate because local variations in fertility, mortality, and School District. Population Research and Policy
migration may be more irregular than those at the regional, Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, December 1996
state, or national scale. Especially challenging is the forecast of
the migration rates for local areas, because changes in the area's McKibben, J., M. Gann, and K. Faust.
socioeconomic characteristics can quickly change from past and The Baby Boomlet's Role in Future College Enrollment.
current patterns (Peters and Larkin, 2002.) American Demographics, June 1999.
The population forecasts for School District of Pickens
County were calculated using a cohort-component method with Peters, G. and R. Larkin
the populations divided into male and female groups by five- Population Geography. 7th Edition. Dubuque, IA:
year age cohorts that range from 0-to-4 years of age to 85 years Kendall Hunt Publishing. 2002.
of age and older (85+). Age- and sex-specific fertility, mortality,
and migration models were constructed to specifically reflect
the unique demographic characteristics of each of the Siegel, J. and D. Swanson
attendance areas in the School District of Pickens County. The Methods and Materials of Demography: Second
The enrollment forecasts were calculated using a Edition, Academic Press: New York, New York. 2004.
modified average survivorship method. Average survivor rates
(i.e., the proportion of students who progress from one grade Smith, S., J. Tayman and D. Swanson
level to the next given the average amount of net migration for State and Local Population Projections, Academic
that grade level) over the previous five years of year-to-year Press, New York, New York. 2001.
enrollment data were calculated for grades two through twelve.
This procedure is used to identify specific grades where there
are large numbers of students changing facilities for non-
demographic factors, such as private school transfers or
enrollment in special programs.
The survivorship rates were modified or adjusted to
reflect the average rate of forecasted in and out migration of 5-
to-9, 10-to-14 and 15-to-17-year-old cohorts to each of the
attendance centers in School District of Pickens County for the
period 2010 to 2015. These survivorship rates then were
adjusted to reflect the forecasted changes in age-specific
migration the district should experience over the next five years.
These modified survivorship rates were used to project the
enrollment of grades 2 through 12 for the period 2015 to 2020.
The survivorship rates were adjusted again for the period 2020
to 2025 to reflect the predicted changes in the amount of age-
specific migration in the district for the period.
The forecasted enrollments for kindergarten and first
grade are derived from the 5-to-9-year-old population of the
age-sex population forecast at the elementary attendance center
district level. This procedure allows the changes in the
incoming grade sizes to be factors of forecasted population
change and not an extrapolation of previous class sizes. Given
the potentially large amount of variation in kindergarten
enrollment due to parental choice, changes in the state's
minimum age requirement, and differing district policies on
allowing children to start Kindergarten early, first grade
enrollment is deemed to be a more accurate and reliable starting
point for the forecasts. (McKibben, 1996) The level of the
accuracy for both the population and enrollment forecasts at the

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Appendix A: Supplemental Tables

Table 1: Forecasted District Total Population Change, 2020 to 2030


2020-2025 2025-2030 2020-2030
2020 2025 Change 2025 Change Change
AMBLER 6,330 6,470 2.2% 6,420 -0.8% 1.4%
CENTRAL 11,500 12,120 5.4% 12,640 4.3% 9.9%
CLEMSON 23,800 25,970 9.1% 28,010 7.9% 17.7%
CROSSWELL 8,920 9,270 3.9% 9,510 2.6% 6.6%
DACUSVILLE 8,960 9,000 0.4% 8,990 -0.1% 0.3%
EAST END 6,610 7,030 6.4% 7,410 5.4% 12.1%
FOREST ACRES 10,590 10,640 0.5% 10,720 0.8% 1.2%
HAGOOD 10,400 10,520 1.2% 10,480 -0.4% 0.8%
LIBERTY 14,990 15,340 2.3% 15,450 0.7% 3.1%
McKISSICK 5,610 5,740 2.3% 5,890 2.6% 5.0%
PICKENS 6,570 6,600 0.5% 6,520 -1.2% -0.8%
SIX MILE 7,350 7,600 3.4% 7,730 1.7% 5.2%
WEST END 9,800 10,170 3.8% 10,470 2.9% 6.8%
DISTRICT TOTAL 131,430 136,470 3.8% 140,240 2.8% 6.7%

Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census


HH w/ Pop % HH w/ Pop Total Household Persons Per
Under 18 Under 18 Households Population Household
AMBLER 690 28.7% 2,401 5,849 2.44
CENTRAL 793 19.1% 4,159 9,793 2.35
CLEMSON 1,063 18.9% 5,617 13,336 2.37
CROSSWELL 1,108 36.0% 3,080 8,042 2.61
DACUSVILLE 1,157 35.4% 3,269 8,634 2.64
EAST END 747 31.5% 2,368 5,678 2.40
FOREST ACRES 1,331 31.9% 4,175 10,177 2.44
HAGOOD 1,188 29.3% 4,053 9,820 2.42
LIBERTY 1,919 34.9% 5,497 21,296 2.56
McKISSICK 661 30.6% 2,160 5,167 2.39
PICKENS 844 34.6% 2,438 6,171 2.53
SIX MILE 841 32.9% 2,558 6,616 2.59
WEST END 1,197 34.7% 3,453 8,821 2.55
DISTRICT TOTAL 13,539 29.9% 45,228 119,400 2.48

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Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census


Percentage of Percentage of
Percentage of
Householders aged Householders Who
Householders aged 65+
35-54 Own Homes
AMBLER 37.7% 28.5% 86.8%
CENTRAL 23.4% 14.1% 34.5%
CLEMSON 21.9% 18.9% 46.3%
CROSSWELL 42.8% 20.2% 80.1%
DACUSVILLE 42.8% 20.9% 83.3%
EAST END 38.0% 25.1% 67.0%
FOREST ACRES 39.0% 27.2% 74.5%
HAGOOD 36.2% 28.7% 77.8%
LIBERTY 56.5% 15.7% 89.7%
McKISSICK 33.9% 30.3% 61.8%
PICKENS 40.8% 26.3% 76.4%
SIX MILE 40.6% 25.7% 85.0%
WEST END 37.5% 24.8% 66.5%
DISTRICT TOTAL 35.7% 23.3% 76.4%

Table 4: : Percentage of Households that are Single Person


Households and Single Person Households that are over age
65 by Elementary Area, 2010 Census
Percentage of Single Percentage of Single Person
Person Households Households and are 65+
AMBLER 24.2% 10.1%
CENTRAL 31.7% 6.9%
CLEMSON 26.3% 7.9%
CROSSWELL 21.5% 6.8%
DACUSVILLE 19.2% 6.7%
EAST END 29.3% 11.6%
FOREST ACRES 25.3% 11.4%
HAGOOD 25.7% 10.7%
LIBERTY 24.7% 11.7%
McKISSICK 30.6% 15.0%
PICKENS 21.7% 9.3%
SIX MILE 21.3% 9.2%
WEST END 25.6% 10.7%
DISTRICT TOTAL 25.2% 9.4%

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Table 5: Elementary Enrollment (K-5), 2021, 2026, 2031


2021-2026 2026-2031 2021-2031
2021 2026 Change 2031 Change Change
AMBLER 366 398 8.7% 387 -2.8% 5.7%
CENTRAL 420 529 26.0% 501 -5.3% 19.3%
CLEMSON 741 776 4.7% 794 2.3% 7.2%
CROSSWELL 461 469 1.7% 493 5.1% 6.9%
DACUSVILLE 502 531 5.8% 550 3.6% 9.6%
EAST END 529 526 -0.6% 540 2.7% 2.1%
FOREST ACRES 677 698 3.1% 657 -5.9% -3.0%
HAGOOD 494 585 18.4% 586 0.2% 18.6%
LIBERTY 939 997 6.2% 965 -3.2% 2.8%
McKISSICK 419 460 9.8% 495 7.6% 18.1%
PICKENS 483 455 -5.8% 439 -3.5% -9.1%
SIX MILE 477 550 15.3% 555 0.9% 16.4%
WEST END 577 549 -4.9% 547 -0.4% -5.2%
DISTRICT TOTAL 7,085 7,523 6.2% 7,509 -0.2% 6.0%

Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by
Elementary Area: 2010 Census
Under 1
1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years
year
AMBLER 57 56 59 57 48 66 75 68 72 77 70
CENTRAL 89 76 84 86 85 77 50 78 70 84 75
CLEMSON 104 106 93 120 99 120 113 102 105 103 101
CROSSWELL 92 111 110 117 112 106 97 102 127 104 105
DACUSVILLE 91 109 107 87 103 101 104 107 115 129 125
EAST END 61 66 89 65 65 79 72 67 87 77 74
FOREST ACRES 110 101 139 138 128 138 151 119 131 149 131
HAGOOD 97 98 108 112 115 120 87 126 128 124 122
LIBERTY 170 186 209 205 190 180 169 173 193 188 212
McKISSICK 66 76 94 68 59 75 60 58 61 63 43
PICKENS 65 71 80 69 74 65 80 87 86 87 80
SIX MILE 76 80 80 69 80 96 69 81 81 88 78
WEST END 123 130 154 132 138 135 107 124 140 123 132
DISTRICT TOTAL 1,200 1,266 1,406 1,324 1,296 1,358 1,234 1,293 1,395 1,396 1,349

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Appendix B: Population Forecasts

School District of Pickens County Ambler Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 6,429 6,210 6,480 6,380 6,010 0-4 274 300 320 300 210
5-9 6,658 6,900 6,730 7,040 7,020 5-9 351 350 350 390 380
10-14 6,972 6,730 6,970 6,790 7,100 10-14 379 370 370 370 410
15-19 11,466 11,450 11,160 11,220 10,910 15-19 383 360 350 350 350
20-24 14,757 15,080 15,010 14,610 14,470 20-24 265 290 260 260 250
25-29 7,056 7,990 8,380 8,530 8,320 25-29 253 280 320 280 280
30-34 6,421 7,230 8,200 8,540 8,690 30-34 292 300 340 360 320
35-39 6,759 7,330 8,090 8,990 9,390 35-39 358 340 350 380 400
40-44 7,172 7,400 7,910 8,710 9,540 40-44 424 400 380 390 410
45-49 8,049 7,450 7,580 8,100 8,860 45-49 460 460 440 420 420
50-54 7,786 8,160 7,580 7,730 8,200 50-54 476 460 460 440 420
55-59 7,127 7,630 7,990 7,430 7,540 55-59 461 470 440 450 430
60-64 6,579 6,930 7,400 7,720 7,190 60-64 512 450 450 430 430
65-69 5,268 5,980 6,340 6,740 7,070 65-69 398 480 420 420 390
70-74 3,840 4,790 5,470 5,850 6,190 70-74 256 370 450 390 390
75-79 2,874 3,440 4,320 4,920 5,290 75-79 156 230 320 400 340
80-84 2,104 2,570 3,050 3,820 4,370 80-84 128 130 180 260 330
85+ 1,907 2,300 2,770 3,350 4,080 85+ 68 120 130 180 260
Total 119,224 125,570 131,430 136,470 140,240 Total 5,896 6,160 6,330 6,470 6,420
Median Age 34.9 35.8 36.7 37.9 39.0 Median Age 44.6 46.0 46.4 46.8 47.4

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 5,800 5,970 5,890 5,580 Births 250 250 260 170
Deaths 3,890 4,510 5,170 5,910 Deaths 250 290 350 410
Natural Increase 1,910 1,460 720 -330 Natural Increase 0 -40 -90 -240
Net Migration 4,450 4,460 4,260 4,120 Net Migration 230 240 220 210
Change 6,360 5,920 4,980 3,790 Change 230 200 130 -30

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

9 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Central Elementary Clemson Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 419 410 470 450 420 0-4 494 570 590 620 650
5-9 364 420 370 470 460 5-9 556 620 730 710 730
10-14 391 370 420 370 470 10-14 538 600 660 770 750
15-19 887 1,080 1,050 1,090 1,030 15-19 4,754 4,820 4,840 4,720 4,690
20-24 3,513 3,580 3,760 3,690 3,670 20-24 6,317 6,350 6,390 6,350 6,180
25-29 889 1,050 1,120 1,350 1,320 25-29 1,087 1,580 1,660 1,910 2,020
30-34 479 440 600 670 920 30-34 576 970 1,470 1,550 1,800
35-39 410 480 440 600 670 35-39 543 790 1,180 1,660 1,740
40-44 417 400 470 440 590 40-44 502 750 990 1,380 1,850
45-49 458 410 400 470 430 45-49 590 710 950 1,190 1,560
50-54 395 450 410 400 470 50-54 592 800 920 1,150 1,360
55-59 395 390 440 400 390 55-59 544 580 780 890 1,120
60-64 336 380 370 420 380 60-64 509 530 570 770 880
65-69 276 310 370 350 390 65-69 412 490 520 550 740
70-74 186 260 300 340 320 70-74 330 410 490 510 550
75-79 148 170 230 260 300 75-79 293 320 400 480 510
80-84 105 120 130 190 210 80-84 253 290 310 390 460
85+ 111 120 150 160 200 85+ 345 340 350 370 420
Total 10,179 10,840 11,500 12,120 12,640 Total 19,234 21,520 23,800 25,970 28,010
Median Age 24.3 24.4 24.6 25.0 26.0 Median Age 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.9 27.5

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 420 420 430 420 Births 530 590 580 610
Deaths 230 270 300 350 Deaths 380 410 450 530
Natural Increase 190 150 130 70 Natural Increase 150 180 130 80
Net Migration 490 490 480 470 Net Migration 2,140 2,120 2,030 1,960
Change 680 640 610 540 Change 2,290 2,300 2,160 2,040

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

10 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Crosswell Elementary Dacusville Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 543 460 490 510 510 0-4 510 450 470 470 450
5-9 541 550 470 500 510 5-9 532 540 480 510 520
10-14 560 550 550 480 510 10-14 613 530 540 470 510
15-19 539 530 530 530 450 15-19 585 600 510 510 450
20-24 432 480 480 470 480 20-24 459 510 520 410 410
25-29 466 480 540 520 510 25-29 437 470 520 540 430
30-34 463 580 590 640 620 30-34 484 470 510 560 570
35-39 546 560 650 670 700 35-39 532 510 490 540 600
40-44 622 600 610 690 710 40-44 608 560 530 530 570
45-49 665 620 590 600 690 45-49 751 600 560 520 530
50-54 582 660 600 580 590 50-54 748 740 590 550 520
55-59 572 570 640 600 570 55-59 663 730 720 590 530
60-64 558 550 550 620 570 60-64 627 640 710 700 560
65-69 374 530 530 520 580 65-69 412 570 600 650 640
70-74 241 350 490 490 490 70-74 307 370 520 530 590
75-79 167 210 300 430 430 75-79 180 270 320 450 470
80-84 103 130 170 240 350 80-84 114 150 220 260 370
85+ 68 100 140 180 240 85+ 72 110 150 210 270
Total 8,042 8,510 8,920 9,270 9,510 Total 8,636 8,820 8,960 9,000 8,990
Median Age 39.4 40.5 41.3 42.3 43.3 Median Age 41.4 42.9 44.2 44.6 44.9

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 430 460 480 470 Births 430 430 440 420
Deaths 250 310 380 450 Deaths 280 350 420 490
Natural Increase 180 150 100 20 Natural Increase 150 80 20 -70
Net Migration 280 270 250 230 Net Migration 40 40 50 50
Change 460 420 350 250 Change 190 120 70 -20

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

11 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

East End Elementary Forest Acres Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 351 370 350 370 390 0-4 605 600 590 570 590
5-9 377 470 550 470 470 5-9 675 620 610 590 570
10-14 369 380 470 550 470 10-14 694 680 620 610 590
15-19 339 250 260 350 450 15-19 565 640 620 570 570
20-24 364 430 340 340 430 20-24 510 520 580 580 530
25-29 411 450 510 420 420 25-29 557 540 560 610 610
30-34 351 530 570 630 530 30-34 589 590 570 580 630
35-39 373 410 580 620 670 35-39 708 630 630 610 640
40-44 393 430 460 640 660 40-44 729 740 660 650 650
45-49 438 390 420 460 620 45-49 779 720 720 650 650
50-54 388 430 390 420 450 50-54 743 770 710 720 650
55-59 355 380 430 370 410 55-59 692 730 750 700 700
60-64 322 350 370 410 370 60-64 649 670 700 720 670
65-69 280 240 270 290 340 65-69 536 610 630 660 690
70-74 209 200 170 220 220 70-74 411 490 580 590 620
75-79 150 180 180 150 190 75-79 316 360 440 510 520
80-84 108 120 150 150 130 80-84 272 260 300 350 410
85+ 104 130 140 170 190 85+ 231 290 320 370 430
Total 5,682 6,140 6,610 7,030 7,410 Total 10,262 10,460 10,590 10,640 10,720
Median Age 38.7 37.3 37.2 38.1 39.1 Median Age 41.6 42.8 43.9 44.6 44.8

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 380 410 400 400 Births 590 570 560 570
Deaths 220 240 260 280 Deaths 460 500 560 620
Natural Increase 160 170 140 120 Natural Increase 130 70 0 -50
Net Migration 290 300 280 260 Net Migration 80 80 70 80
Change 450 470 420 380 Change 210 150 70 30

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

12 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Hagood Elementary Liberty Primary / Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 526 450 510 490 420 0-4 938 830 890 880 790
5-9 578 520 450 550 560 5-9 913 940 840 920 890
10-14 618 580 520 450 550 10-14 989 910 940 840 920
15-19 678 580 540 480 410 15-19 936 950 870 900 790
20-24 536 540 440 380 290 20-24 840 910 930 840 860
25-29 509 570 580 460 410 25-29 880 860 930 950 870
30-34 583 560 620 640 530 30-34 899 910 900 970 990
35-39 636 630 600 680 710 35-39 1,002 940 970 960 1,040
40-44 651 670 670 660 740 40-44 1,028 1,000 940 970 960
45-49 732 690 690 670 660 45-49 1,080 1,020 990 940 960
50-54 775 720 680 680 660 50-54 1,065 1,070 1,000 990 930
55-59 773 760 700 670 660 55-59 954 1,040 1,050 990 960
60-64 667 770 760 700 660 60-64 830 920 1,010 1,000 950
65-69 594 650 740 730 680 65-69 598 760 850 920 920
70-74 418 580 630 720 710 70-74 453 550 710 780 850
75-79 334 410 570 610 710 75-79 317 390 490 620 680
80-84 229 330 400 560 600 80-84 222 310 390 480 610
85+ 169 220 300 390 520 85+ 156 210 290 390 480
Total 10,004 10,230 10,400 10,520 10,480 Total 14,099 14,520 14,990 15,340 15,450
Median Age 42.6 45.1 47.0 48.5 49.7 Median Age 38.3 40.1 41.2 42.1 43.0

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 440 450 430 370 Births 820 880 870 760
Deaths 290 360 440 550 Deaths 420 520 610 700
Natural Increase 150 90 -10 -180 Natural Increase 400 360 260 60
Net Migration 80 90 100 120 Net Migration 60 70 70 80
Change 230 180 90 -60 Change 460 430 330 140

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

13 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

McKissick Elementary Pickens Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 367 380 390 380 340 0-4 347 380 330 320 310
5-9 309 410 400 430 450 5-9 406 350 440 410 370
10-14 306 310 410 400 430 10-14 452 400 370 450 410
15-19 323 260 270 370 360 15-19 451 440 390 350 440
20-24 328 280 230 230 280 20-24 346 390 370 340 290
25-29 363 390 330 280 290 25-29 308 360 400 380 340
30-34 373 420 440 390 340 30-34 368 340 390 420 400
35-39 295 430 470 450 450 35-39 373 410 380 420 460
40-44 317 300 430 470 450 40-44 475 400 410 380 410
45-49 380 310 280 420 460 45-49 503 470 400 410 380
50-54 337 370 310 280 420 50-54 501 490 460 390 400
55-59 305 330 370 300 280 55-59 403 490 490 460 390
60-64 278 300 320 350 300 60-64 388 390 480 470 440
65-69 271 220 240 260 300 65-69 361 320 310 380 380
70-74 213 220 170 210 210 70-74 241 340 280 290 350
75-79 192 180 190 150 190 75-79 193 220 310 260 260
80-84 140 160 150 150 120 80-84 123 180 200 270 230
85+ 187 190 210 220 220 85+ 113 130 160 200 260
Total 5,284 5,460 5,610 5,740 5,890 Total 6,352 6,500 6,570 6,600 6,520
Median Age 39.6 38.3 38.6 39.3 40.1 Median Age 41.3 42.3 42.6 42.8 42.9

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 340 340 320 300 Births 330 340 320 310
Deaths 260 270 270 280 Deaths 280 320 380 420
Natural Increase 80 70 50 20 Natural Increase 50 20 -60 -110
Net Migration 100 90 100 100 Net Migration 80 80 70 60
Change 180 160 150 120 Change 130 100 10 -50

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

14 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Six Mile Elementary West End Elementary

Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 377 440 530 470 400 0-4 676 570 550 550 530
5-9 412 440 470 560 560 5-9 644 670 570 530 550
10-14 455 410 430 460 550 10-14 609 640 670 570 530
15-19 462 400 350 380 410 15-19 565 540 580 620 510
20-24 339 290 230 200 240 20-24 507 510 480 520 560
25-29 314 390 350 270 240 25-29 580 570 560 560 580
30-34 389 420 510 460 370 30-34 574 700 690 670 670
35-39 419 500 540 610 540 35-39 565 700 810 790 770
40-44 430 530 610 640 700 40-44 577 620 750 870 840
45-49 549 480 520 610 640 45-49 663 570 620 740 860
50-54 589 540 480 520 600 50-54 594 660 570 610 730
55-59 481 580 540 460 500 55-59 529 580 640 550 600
60-64 408 470 550 510 450 60-64 495 510 560 620 530
65-69 366 330 380 480 430 65-69 391 470 480 530 590
70-74 273 280 250 330 390 70-74 303 370 430 450 500
75-79 186 240 250 220 290 75-79 242 260 320 380 400
80-84 121 150 190 210 180 80-84 187 240 260 310 370
85+ 105 130 170 210 240 85+ 180 210 260 300 350
Total 6,676 7,020 7,350 7,600 7,730 Total 8,878 9,390 9,800 10,170 10,470
Median Age 42.0 42.1 42.2 43.0 44.0 Median Age 37.5 38.5 39.9 41.6 43.2

2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to 2010 to 2015 to 2020 to 2025 to


2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Births 330 330 310 300 Births 510 500 490 480
Deaths 260 300 340 370 Deaths 310 370 410 460
Natural Increase 70 30 -30 -70 Natural Increase 200 130 80 20
Net Migration 270 290 260 240 Net Migration 310 300 280 260
Change 340 320 230 170 Change 510 430 360 280

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding. Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

15 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Appendix C: Population Pyramids

School District of Pickens County Total Population – 2010 Census Ambler Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

8,000 4,000 0 4,000 8,000 500 250 0 250 500

Males Females Males Females

16 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Central Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census Clemson Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,000 4,000

Males Females Males Females

17 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Crosswell Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census Dacusville Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

500 250 0 250 500 500 250 0 250 500

Males Females Males Females

18 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

East End Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census Forest Acres Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

500 250 0 250 500 500 250 0 250 500

Males Females Males Females

19 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Hagood Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census Liberty Primary / Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

500 250 0 250 500 600 300 0 300 600

Males Females Males Females

20 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

McKissick Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census Pickens Elementary Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

500 250 0 250 500 500 250 0 250 500

Males Females Males Females

21 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Six Mile Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census West End Elementary School Total Population – 2010 Census

85+ 85+
80-84 80-84
75-79 75-79
70-74 70-74
65-69 65-69
60-64 60-64
55-59 55-59
50-54 50-54
45-49 45-49
40-44 40-44
35-39 35-39
30-34 30-34
25-29 25-29
20-24 20-24
15-19 15-19
10-14 10-14
5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4

500 250 0 250 500 500 250 0 250 500

Males Females Males Females

22 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts


School District of Pickens County: Total Enrollment
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 563 631 724 543 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698 698
K 1,210 1,155 1,185 1,128 1,203 1,220 1,216 1,222 1,224 1,224 1,228 1,228 1,236 1,228 1,220
1 1,203 1,231 1,166 1,137 1,194 1,249 1,245 1,241 1,238 1,240 1,240 1,244 1,245 1,250 1,242
2 1,102 1,176 1,228 1,118 1,142 1,202 1,257 1,256 1,248 1,245 1,247 1,247 1,249 1,249 1,254
3 1,172 1,104 1,187 1,191 1,177 1,152 1,213 1,271 1,267 1,259 1,256 1,258 1,259 1,260 1,260
4 1,359 1,185 1,112 1,150 1,191 1,183 1,156 1,220 1,277 1,274 1,266 1,263 1,263 1,264 1,265
5 1,296 1,359 1,184 1,100 1,178 1,192 1,187 1,161 1,221 1,281 1,278 1,270 1,267 1,267 1,268
PK-5 Total 7,905 7,841 7,786 7,367 7,783 7,896 7,972 8,069 8,173 8,221 8,213 8,208 8,217 8,216 8,207

6 1,253 1,239 1,302 1,075 1,073 1,168 1,180 1,174 1,150 1,210 1,269 1,266 1,260 1,257 1,257
7 1,239 1,238 1,254 1,301 1,128 1,085 1,182 1,189 1,182 1,157 1,217 1,276 1,273 1,267 1,264
8 1,196 1,264 1,238 1,236 1,327 1,134 1,091 1,182 1,190 1,182 1,157 1,217 1,275 1,273 1,267
6-8 Total 3,688 3,741 3,794 3,612 3,528 3,388 3,453 3,545 3,522 3,549 3,643 3,759 3,808 3,796 3,787

9 1,316 1,313 1,410 1,369 1,505 1,479 1,264 1,213 1,317 1,326 1,316 1,291 1,357 1,423 1,420
10 1,279 1,207 1,243 1,289 1,267 1,393 1,371 1,173 1,126 1,220 1,228 1,221 1,196 1,256 1,318
11 1,077 1,118 1,038 1,073 1,128 1,111 1,223 1,202 1,027 987 1,070 1,075 1,072 1,049 1,101
12 1,100 1,076 1,117 1,062 1,058 1,128 1,111 1,222 1,201 1,030 987 1,070 1,074 1,072 1,050
9-12 Total 4,772 4,714 4,808 4,793 4,958 5,111 4,969 4,810 4,671 4,563 4,601 4,657 4,699 4,800 4,889
Total Enrollment 16,365 16,296 16,388 15,772 16,269 16,395 16,394 16,424 16,366 16,333 16,457 16,624 16,724 16,812 16,883

Total: All Grades 16,365 16,296 16,388 15,772 16,269 16,395 16,394 16,424 16,366 16,333 16,457 16,624 16,724 16,812 16,883
Change -69 92 -616 497 126 -1 30 -58 -33 124 167 100 89 71
Percent Change -0.4% 0.6% -3.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% -0.4% -0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4%

Total: PK-5 7,905 7,841 7,786 7,367 7,783 7,896 7,972 8,069 8,173 8,221 8,213 8,208 8,217 8,216 8,207
Change -64 -55 -419 416 113 76 97 104 48 -8 -5 9 -1 -9
Percent Change -0.8% -0.7% -5.4% 5.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1%

Total: 6-8 3,688 3,741 3,794 3,612 3,528 3,388 3,453 3,545 3,522 3,549 3,643 3,759 3,808 3,796 3,787
Change 53 53 -182 -84 -140 65 92 -23 27 94 116 49 -11 -9
Percent Change 1.4% 1.4% -4.8% -2.3% -4.0% 1.9% 2.7% -0.7% 0.8% 2.7% 3.2% 1.3% -0.3% -0.2%

Total: 9-12 4,772 4,714 4,808 4,793 4,958 5,111 4,969 4,810 4,671 4,563 4,601 4,657 4,699 4,800 4,889
Change -58 94 -15 165 153 -142 -159 -139 -108 38 56 42 101 89
Percent Change -1.2% 2.0% -0.3% 3.4% 3.1% -2.8% -3.2% -2.9% -2.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.9% 2.1% 1.9%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-2023 and later) are forecasted years

23 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

School District of Pickens County: PK-5th Total Enrollment School District of Pickens County: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

9,000 4,000

8,000 3,500

7,000
3,000

6,000
2,500

5,000
2,000
4,000

1,500
3,000

1,000
2,000

1,000 500

0 0

School District of Pickens County: 9th-12th Total Enrollment School District of Pickens County: PK-12 Total Enrollment

6,000 18,000

16,000
5,000
14,000

4,000 12,000

10,000
3,000
8,000

2,000 6,000

4,000
1,000
2,000

0 0

24 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Ambler Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 40 34 36 23 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
K 48 74 61 56 60 64 65 66 65 64 63 62 63 62 63
1 47 53 70 61 67 66 67 68 69 68 67 66 65 64 63
2 51 45 58 67 55 65 64 65 66 67 66 65 65 64 63
3 44 47 52 54 73 56 66 65 66 67 68 67 66 66 65
4 66 36 55 51 55 74 57 67 66 67 68 69 68 67 67
5 59 72 40 49 56 54 73 56 66 65 66 67 68 67 66
Total PK-5 355 361 372 361 394 407 420 415 426 426 426 424 423 418 415

Total: PK-5 355 361 372 361 394 407 420 415 426 426 426 424 423 418 415
Change 6 11 -11 33 13 13 -5 11 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -3
Percent Change 1.7% 3.0% -2.9% 9.1% 3.3% 3.2% -1.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% -1.2% -0.7%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Ambler Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

25 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Central Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 36 35 37 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
K 50 54 53 63 78 82 81 81 80 80 79 79 78 76 74
1 51 53 68 53 70 85 85 84 84 83 83 82 82 81 79
2 53 51 61 70 65 72 88 88 85 85 84 84 83 83 82
3 51 63 61 71 80 71 78 95 94 91 91 90 89 88 88
4 60 68 66 55 72 81 72 79 96 95 92 92 91 90 89
5 54 66 63 66 55 73 82 73 78 95 94 91 91 90 89
Total PK-5 355 390 410 405 446 490 512 526 543 555 549 544 540 534 527

Total: PK-5 355 390 410 405 446 490 512 526 543 555 549 544 540 534 527
Change 35 20 -5 41 44 22 14 17 12 -6 -5 -4 -6 -7
Percent Change 9.9% 5.2% -1.3% 10.1% 9.9% 4.5% 2.7% 3.2% 2.2% -1.1% -0.9% -0.7% -1.1% -1.3%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Central Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

26 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Clemson Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 42 42 43 25 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
K 135 135 129 109 114 122 123 127 128 129 130 131 132 130 127
1 134 135 132 117 117 123 124 126 128 129 130 131 132 133 131
2 127 137 126 123 131 118 124 126 129 131 132 133 132 133 134
3 136 132 137 107 126 128 116 123 125 128 130 131 132 131 132
4 148 140 130 136 117 129 131 119 127 129 132 134 134 135 134
5 148 147 132 118 136 118 130 134 121 130 132 135 135 135 136
Total PK-5 870 868 830 735 774 771 781 788 791 809 819 828 830 830 827

Total: PK-5 870 868 830 735 774 771 781 788 791 809 819 828 830 830 827
Change -2 -38 -95 39 -3 10 7 3 18 10 9 2 0 -3
Percent Change -0.2% -4.4% -11.4% 5.3% -0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 2.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% -0.4%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Clemson Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

27 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Crosswell Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 34 38 34 28 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
K 66 71 71 60 68 71 71 73 74 75 76 77 79 81 79
1 69 73 70 76 76 74 75 76 76 77 78 79 80 82 84
2 64 75 81 73 81 78 75 77 78 78 79 80 80 81 83
3 62 77 82 74 79 83 80 77 79 80 80 81 81 81 82
4 104 66 72 75 76 80 84 81 78 80 81 81 82 82 82
5 74 108 65 66 81 77 81 85 82 79 81 82 82 83 83
Total PK-5 473 508 476 452 501 503 506 509 507 509 515 520 524 530 533

Total: PK-5 473 508 476 452 501 503 506 509 507 509 515 520 524 530 533
Change 35 -32 -24 49 2 3 3 -2 2 6 5 4 6 3
Percent Change 7.4% -6.4% -4.9% 10.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% -0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Crosswell Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

28 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Dacusville Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 41 41 41 42 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66
K 101 68 95 89 85 87 88 89 90 90 91 91 92 93 91
1 93 99 67 85 92 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 94
2 80 87 90 63 82 89 86 87 88 88 89 89 91 91 92
3 102 73 84 91 73 83 90 87 88 89 89 90 90 92 92
4 117 97 73 81 81 72 81 88 85 87 88 88 89 89 91
5 115 109 106 73 89 80 71 80 87 86 88 89 89 90 90
Total PK-5 649 574 556 524 568 566 571 587 594 597 602 605 609 614 616

Total: PK-5 649 574 556 524 568 566 571 587 594 597 602 605 609 614 616
Change -75 -18 -32 44 -2 5 16 7 3 5 3 4 5 2
Percent Change -11.6% -3.1% -5.8% 8.4% -0.4% 0.9% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Dacusville Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

29 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

East End Elementary


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 39 42 53 34 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
K 135 88 94 90 86 85 85 87 87 88 88 89 91 92 90
1 124 112 89 86 86 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 93 94
2 99 102 115 76 77 85 87 88 88 89 89 90 89 90 91
3 116 90 99 121 77 76 84 86 87 87 88 88 89 88 89
4 120 96 94 96 113 76 75 83 85 86 86 87 87 88 87
5 129 110 106 98 90 114 77 76 84 86 87 87 88 88 89
Total PK-5 762 640 650 601 567 562 535 547 559 564 567 570 574 577 578

Total: PK-5 762 640 650 601 567 562 535 547 559 564 567 570 574 577 578
Change -122 10 -49 -34 -5 -27 12 12 5 3 3 4 3 1
Percent Change -16.0% 1.6% -7.6% -5.7% -0.9% -4.8% 2.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

East End Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

30 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Forest Acres Elementary


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 34 39 45 36 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
K 100 116 125 102 116 114 112 110 109 108 107 106 106 105 104
1 110 123 127 120 101 121 118 115 112 111 110 109 108 107 106
2 100 119 122 121 106 103 123 119 116 114 113 112 111 109 108
3 96 93 128 116 117 107 104 124 120 118 116 115 114 112 110
4 128 103 100 125 116 118 108 105 125 121 119 117 116 115 113
5 123 131 109 102 121 117 119 109 106 126 122 120 118 117 116
Total PK-5 691 724 756 722 711 714 718 716 722 732 721 713 707 699 691

Total: PK-5 691 724 756 722 711 714 718 716 722 732 721 713 707 699 691
Change 33 32 -34 -11 3 4 -2 6 10 -11 -8 -6 -8 -8
Percent Change 4.8% 4.4% -4.5% -1.5% 0.4% 0.6% -0.3% 0.8% 1.4% -1.5% -1.1% -0.8% -1.1% -1.1%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Forest Acres Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

31 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Hagood Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 20 34 39 32 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63
K 70 66 87 79 101 96 92 88 89 90 91 92 95 96 94
1 80 77 67 87 81 104 100 96 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
2 74 75 76 66 87 82 105 101 97 93 94 95 98 99 100
3 78 72 78 76 77 88 83 106 102 96 92 93 94 97 98
4 79 91 70 75 68 78 89 84 107 103 97 93 94 95 98
5 90 75 86 69 80 69 79 90 85 108 104 98 94 95 96
Total PK-5 491 490 503 484 557 580 611 628 637 648 637 631 636 644 649

Total: PK-5 491 490 503 484 557 580 611 628 637 648 637 631 636 644 649
Change -1 13 -19 73 23 31 17 9 11 -11 -6 5 8 5
Percent Change -0.2% 2.6% -3.7% 15.1% 4.1% 5.3% 2.8% 1.4% 1.7% -1.7% -0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Hagood Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

32 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Chastain Road Elementery (Formerly)


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 38 44 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K 92 64 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 86 83 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 53 76 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 72 49 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 91 67 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 83 95 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total PK-5 515 478 403 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total: PK-5 515 478 403 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Change -37 -75 -403 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Percent Change -7.2% -15.6% -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Chastain Road Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

33 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Liberty Primary / Elementary


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 64 96 188 146 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190 190
K 75 90 97 166 172 171 170 170 169 167 166 165 162 160 158
1 80 83 90 154 166 170 168 167 165 164 162 161 160 159 157
2 82 78 86 149 157 168 172 170 169 167 166 164 163 162 161
3 81 85 79 156 135 155 166 170 168 167 165 164 166 165 164
4 85 78 87 153 163 134 153 164 168 166 165 163 162 164 163
5 99 89 73 129 146 161 133 151 162 166 164 163 161 160 162
Total PK-5 566 599 699 1,053 1,129 1,149 1,152 1,182 1,191 1,187 1,178 1,170 1,164 1,160 1,155

Total: PK-5 566 599 699 1,053 1,129 1,149 1,152 1,182 1,191 1,187 1,178 1,170 1,164 1,160 1,155
Change 33 100 354 76 20 3 30 9 -4 -9 -8 -6 -4 -5
Percent Change 5.8% 16.7% 50.7% 7.2% 1.8% 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% -0.3% -0.8% -0.7% -0.5% -0.3% -0.4%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Liberty Primary / Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

34 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

McKissick Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 34 50 52 42 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
K 77 77 62 73 68 73 74 76 78 79 81 81 83 81 89
1 88 80 71 62 75 74 76 77 78 80 81 83 84 85 83
2 61 74 79 71 59 76 75 77 76 77 79 80 82 83 84
3 63 60 66 73 83 60 77 76 76 75 76 78 79 81 82
4 73 63 64 67 69 84 61 78 75 75 74 75 77 78 80
5 68 72 61 67 65 70 85 62 77 74 74 73 74 76 77
Total PK-5 464 476 455 455 476 494 505 503 517 517 522 527 536 541 552

Total: PK-5 464 476 455 455 476 494 505 503 517 517 522 527 536 541 552
Change 12 -21 0 21 18 11 -2 14 0 5 5 9 5 11
Percent Change 2.6% -4.4% 0.0% 4.6% 3.8% 2.2% -0.4% 2.8% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 2.0%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

McKissick Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

35 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Pickens Elementary
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 49 45 55 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
K 91 91 77 76 78 77 76 76 74 73 73 72 72 71 73
1 75 93 94 77 79 76 75 74 73 71 70 70 69 69 68
2 77 78 92 83 81 80 77 77 75 75 73 72 72 71 71
3 81 81 73 86 80 82 81 78 78 77 77 75 74 74 73
4 80 86 76 77 84 81 83 82 79 79 78 78 77 76 76
5 73 78 82 79 81 85 82 84 83 80 80 79 80 79 78
Total PK-5 526 552 550 509 514 512 505 502 493 486 482 477 475 471 470

Total: PK-5 526 552 550 509 514 512 505 502 493 486 482 477 475 471 470
Change 26 -2 -41 5 -2 -7 -3 -9 -7 -4 -5 -2 -4 -1
Percent Change 4.9% -0.4% -7.4% 1.0% -0.4% -1.4% -0.6% -1.8% -1.4% -0.8% -1.0% -0.4% -0.8% -0.2%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Pickens Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

36 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Six Mile Elementary


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 38 38 54 48 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
K 64 80 72 78 91 86 86 86 86 86 87 87 88 86 85
1 74 59 81 72 89 91 91 90 90 91 91 92 92 93 91
2 83 82 61 74 72 90 92 92 91 91 92 92 93 93 94
3 84 76 74 58 85 73 91 93 93 92 92 93 93 94 94
4 83 83 78 67 60 86 74 92 94 94 93 93 94 94 95
5 83 84 87 75 80 61 88 75 94 96 96 95 95 96 96
Total PK-5 509 502 506 472 520 530 565 571 591 593 594 595 598 599 598

Total: PK-5 509 502 506 472 520 530 565 571 591 593 594 595 598 599 598
Change -7 4 -34 48 10 35 6 20 2 1 1 3 1 -1
Percent Change -1.4% 0.8% -6.8% 10.2% 1.9% 6.6% 1.1% 3.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% -0.2%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Six Mile Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

37 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

West End Elementary


2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
PK 54 53 46 29 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
K 106 81 94 87 86 92 93 93 95 95 96 96 95 95 93
1 92 108 84 87 95 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92
2 98 97 99 82 89 96 89 89 90 90 91 91 90 90 91
3 106 106 93 108 92 90 97 91 91 92 92 93 92 91 91
4 125 111 99 92 117 90 88 98 92 92 93 93 92 91 90
5 98 123 104 109 98 113 87 86 96 90 90 91 92 91 90
Total PK-5 679 679 620 594 626 618 591 595 602 598 601 604 601 599 596

Total: PK-5 679 679 620 594 626 618 591 595 602 598 601 604 601 599 596
Change 0 -59 -26 32 -8 -27 4 7 -4 3 3 -3 -2 -3
Percent Change 0.0% -8.7% -4.2% 5.4% -1.3% -4.4% 0.7% 1.2% -0.7% 0.5% 0.5% -0.5% -0.3% -0.5%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

West End Elementary: PK-5th Total Enrollment

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

38 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Dacusville Middle
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
6 116 126 111 82 76 92 82 73 82 90 89 91 92 92 93
7 120 109 123 118 81 78 94 85 75 84 91 90 92 94 94
8 93 109 106 125 116 80 77 93 84 75 83 90 89 92 93
Total 6-8 329 344 340 325 273 250 254 251 242 249 263 271 273 277 279

Total: 6-8 329 344 340 325 273 250 254 251 242 249 263 271 273 277 279
Change 15 -4 -15 -52 -23 4 -3 -9 7 14 8 2 4 2
Percent Change 4.6% -1.1% -4.5% -16.0% -8.4% 1.5% -1.1% -3.7% 2.9% 5.8% 3.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Dacusville Middle: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

39 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Edwards Middle
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
6 270 286 287 271 254 266 247 294 276 287 315 316 315 315 315
7 264 275 280 285 285 257 268 244 291 274 284 311 312 311 311
8 276 284 265 284 288 288 259 266 242 288 271 281 308 309 308
Total 6-8 810 845 831 840 827 810 774 804 809 849 870 908 935 935 934

Total: 6-8 810 845 831 840 827 810 774 804 809 849 870 908 935 935 934
Change 35 -14 9 -13 -17 -36 30 5 39 21 38 27 0 -1
Percent Change 4.3% -1.6% 1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -4.4% 3.9% 0.6% 4.9% 2.5% 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Edwards Middle: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

40 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Gettys Middle
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
6 474 450 509 391 428 446 481 440 410 436 446 445 444 445 446
7 432 464 448 498 406 432 450 486 444 414 440 450 449 448 449
8 422 437 465 427 527 410 437 455 491 449 418 445 455 454 453
Total 6-8 1,328 1,351 1,422 1,316 1,361 1,288 1,369 1,381 1,345 1,299 1,304 1,340 1,348 1,347 1,348

Total: 6-8 1,328 1,351 1,422 1,316 1,361 1,288 1,369 1,381 1,345 1,299 1,304 1,340 1,348 1,347 1,348
Change 23 71 -106 45 -73 80 12 -36 -46 6 36 8 -1 1
Percent Change 1.7% 5.3% -7.5% 3.4% -5.4% 6.2% 0.9% -2.6% -3.4% 0.4% 2.8% 0.6% -0.1% 0.1%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Gettys Middle: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

41 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Liberty Middle
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
6 173 183 185 150 136 150 166 136 154 165 169 167 168 166 165
7 170 161 189 176 158 137 152 167 137 156 167 171 169 170 167
8 192 191 172 190 174 160 139 153 169 138 157 169 173 171 171
Total 6-8 535 535 546 516 468 448 457 456 460 459 493 507 510 506 503

Total: 6-8 535 535 546 516 468 448 457 456 460 459 493 507 510 506 503
Change 0 11 -30 -48 -20 9 -1 4 -1 34 14 3 -3 -3
Percent Change 0.0% 2.1% -5.6% -9.3% -4.3% 2.0% -0.1% 0.9% -0.3% 7.5% 2.9% 0.5% -0.7% -0.6%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Liberty Middle: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

600

500

400

300

200

100

42 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Pickens Middle
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
6 220 194 210 181 179 215 204 232 228 232 250 248 242 240 239
7 253 229 214 224 198 181 217 206 234 230 234 253 250 244 242
8 213 243 230 210 222 196 179 215 204 232 228 232 250 247 242
Total 6-8 686 666 654 615 599 592 600 653 666 694 712 732 742 731 723

Total: 6-8 686 666 654 615 599 592 600 653 666 694 712 732 742 731 723
Change -20 -12 -39 -16 -7 8 53 13 28 19 20 9 -11 -8
Percent Change -2.9% -1.8% -6.0% -2.6% -1.2% 1.4% 8.8% 2.0% 4.2% 2.7% 2.8% 1.2% -1.5% -1.1%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Pickens Middle: 6th-8th Total Enrollment

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

43 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Daniel High
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
9 292 317 323 292 340 314 314 282 290 264 314 295 306 336 337
10 288 291 309 304 289 330 305 305 274 281 256 305 286 297 326
11 239 258 259 276 277 257 294 271 271 244 250 228 271 255 264
12 275 253 273 278 291 291 270 309 285 285 256 263 239 285 268
Total 9-12 1,094 1,119 1,164 1,150 1,197 1,192 1,183 1,167 1,120 1,074 1,076 1,091 1,102 1,173 1,195

Total: 9-12 1,094 1,119 1,164 1,150 1,197 1,192 1,183 1,167 1,120 1,074 1,076 1,091 1,102 1,173 1,195
Change 25 45 -14 47 -5 -9 -16 -47 -46 2 15 11 71 22
Percent Change 2.3% 4.0% -1.2% 4.1% -0.4% -0.8% -1.4% -4.0% -4.1% 0.2% 1.4% 1.0% 6.4% 1.9%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Daniel High: 9th-12th Total Enrollment

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

44 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Easley High
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
9 485 426 474 497 534 574 447 476 496 535 489 456 485 496 495
10 449 450 424 452 469 502 540 420 447 466 503 460 429 456 466
11 363 396 385 373 387 408 437 470 365 389 405 438 400 373 397
12 402 355 393 392 361 379 400 428 461 358 381 397 429 392 366
Total 9-12 1,699 1,627 1,676 1,714 1,751 1,863 1,824 1,794 1,769 1,748 1,778 1,751 1,743 1,717 1,724

Total: 9-12 1,699 1,627 1,676 1,714 1,751 1,863 1,824 1,794 1,769 1,748 1,778 1,751 1,743 1,717 1,724
Change -72 49 38 37 112 -39 -30 -25 -21 30 -27 -8 -26 7
Percent Change -4.2% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 6.4% -2.1% -1.6% -1.4% -1.2% 1.7% -1.5% -0.5% -1.5% 0.4%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Easley High: 9th-12th Total Enrollment

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

45 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Liberty High
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
9 168 215 209 199 207 202 186 161 177 196 160 182 196 201 198
10 186 135 185 185 176 184 180 166 143 158 174 142 162 174 179
11 142 147 105 149 149 143 149 146 134 116 128 141 115 131 141
12 150 154 169 123 154 159 153 159 156 143 124 137 151 123 140
Total 9-12 646 651 668 656 686 688 668 632 610 613 586 602 624 629 658

Total: 9-12 646 651 668 656 686 688 668 632 610 613 586 602 624 629 658
Change 5 17 -12 30 2 -20 -36 -22 3 -27 16 22 5 29
Percent Change 0.8% 2.6% -1.8% 4.6% 0.3% -2.9% -5.4% -3.5% 0.5% -4.4% 2.7% 3.7% 0.8% 4.6%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Liberty High: 9th-12th Total Enrollment

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

46 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Pickens High
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
9 371 355 405 381 424 389 317 294 354 331 353 358 370 390 390
10 356 331 325 348 333 377 346 282 262 315 295 314 319 329 347
11 333 317 289 275 315 303 343 315 257 238 287 268 286 290 299
12 273 314 282 269 252 299 288 326 299 244 226 273 255 272 276
Total 9-12 1,333 1,317 1,300 1,273 1,324 1,368 1,294 1,217 1,172 1,128 1,161 1,213 1,230 1,281 1,312

Total: 9-12 1,333 1,317 1,300 1,273 1,324 1,368 1,294 1,217 1,172 1,128 1,161 1,213 1,230 1,281 1,312
Change -16 -17 -27 51 44 -74 -77 -45 -44 33 52 17 51 31
Percent Change -1.2% -1.3% -2.0% 4.0% 3.3% -5.4% -6.0% -3.7% -3.8% 2.9% 4.5% 1.4% 4.1% 2.4%
Forecasts developed December 2021
Green cells (2021-2022 and earlier) are historical data
Blue cells (2022-23 and later) are forecasted years

Pickens High: 9th-12th Total Enrollment

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

47 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Appendix E: IRS Data

Inflow

Migration From Other Counties to Pickens, SC, 2018-19


Mean
Household
State County Name Households People Household
Size
Income

Pickens County Total


Migration-US and
SC Foreign 3,295 6,268 1.90 $65,773
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-US 3,295 6,268 1.90 $65,773
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-Same State 2,133 4,072 1.91 $52,987
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-Different State 1,162 2,196 1.89 $89,244
Pickens County Non-
SC migrants 38,495 82,665 2.15 $65,334
SC Greenville County 891 1,770 1.99 $57,204
SC Anderson County 566 1,099 1.94 $42,147
SC Oconee County 282 515 1.83 $53,723
SC Spartanburg County 96 174 1.81 $56,042
SC Charleston County 37 59 1.59 $133,892
NC Mecklenburg County 34 62 1.82 $128,265
SC Richland County 28 39 1.39 $50,286
SC Horry County 27 46 1.70 $49,889
SC York County 27 60 2.22 $72,111
SC Lexington County 23 39 1.70 $63,565
NC Henderson County 20 39 1.95 $45,900
SC Greenwood County 20 36 1.80 $43,950
SS Other flows - Same State 136 235 1.73 $41,684
Other flows - Different
DS State 1,108 2,095 1.89 $88,829
DS Other flows - Northeast 179 302 1.69 $68,899
DS Other flows - Midwest 178 363 2.04 $92,410
DS Other flows - South 640 1,196 1.87 $96,970
DS Other flows - West 111 234 2.11 $68,288
FR Foreign - Other flows NA NA NA NA

48 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Outflow

Migration From Pickens, SC to Other Counties, 2018-19


Mean
Household
State County Name Households People Household
Size
Income

Pickens County Total


Migration-US and
SC Foreign 3,177 5,708 1.80 $49,922
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-US 3,177 5,708 1.80 $49,922
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-Same State 2,098 3,926 1.87 $49,193
Pickens County Total
SC Migration-Different State 1,079 1,782 1.65 $51,339
Pickens County Non-
SC migrants 38,495 82,665 2.15 $65,334
SC Greenville County 825 1,496 1.81 $44,596
SC Anderson County 592 1,216 2.05 $47,478
SC Oconee County 287 499 1.74 $71,139
SC Spartanburg County 101 181 1.79 $48,743
SC Charleston County 47 70 1.49 $45,872
NC Mecklenburg County 38 56 1.47 $40,421
SC Richland County 34 61 1.79 $40,882
NC Wake County 26 51 1.96 $49,692
SC Laurens County 25 56 2.24 $35,680
SC Lexington County 23 44 1.91 $52,087
SC York County 22 41 1.86 $54,273
NC Buncombe County 20 30 1.50 $97,750
SS Other flows - Same State 142 262 1.85 $43,218
Other flows - Different
DS State 995 1,645 1.65 $50,866
DS Other flows - Northeast 112 179 1.60 $41,929
DS Other flows - Midwest 111 191 1.72 $47,324
DS Other flows - South 622 1,039 1.67 $52,244
DS Other flows - West 150 236 1.57 $54,447
FR Foreign - Other flows NA NA NA NA

49 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Appendix F: Live Attend Tables

The following tables display where students live and attend relative to school zones. The schools of attendance are listed on the left while the zones are listed on the top.
This student data is from the October 2021 School District of Pickens County student database.
The first column of numbers to the right of the schools of attendance represents the number of students enrolled at each given school. The first row of numbers below the
zones represents the total number of students living inside of each given zone. The green-colored numbers represent number of students who attend the school of the zone in which
they live. All other numbers represent students who attend school outside of the zone in which they live. The bottom row represents the number of students that “Live-In and
Attend-Out” by school. The blue-colored cell shows the total number of students that “Live-in and Attend-Out”. The farthest right column represents the number of students that
“Live-Out and Attend-In” by school. The orange-colored cell shows the total number of students that “Live-Out and Attend-In”.

Enrolled counts
Live-in counts

Where 6-8th Students Live

)
-8
(6
In
dents Attend

nd
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S

ct
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ri

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per school. Total is shown at
Where 6-8th Stud

269 791 1,339 506 582 39 2 357 the top in the orange-colored
cell.
Dacusville Middle School 273 239 25 8 1 34

Edwards Middle School 827 1 757 10 30 12 17 70

Gettys Middle School 1,361 18 3 1,247 55 24 14 114 Green-colored numbers represent number
468 1 24 29 397 9 7 1 70 of students who live in the zone and
Liberty Middle School
attend their zoned school. All other
Pickens Middle School 599 10 7 28 24 529 1 69 numbers represent students who attend
school outside of the zone that they live
Live In, Attend Out (6-8) 318 30 34 92 109 53 in.

Live in and attend out totals


per school. Total is shown at
the left in the blue-colored cell.

50 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Where K-5th Students Live

)
-5
(K
In
nd
ES

tte
ct
ES

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C
355 460 592 511 534 352 620 625 1,011 357 429 470 664 99 6 1,595
Ambler Elementary 366 299 1 17 2 1 39 2 1 1 3 67

Central Academy 420 341 15 1 7 25 1 1 21 4 4 79

Clemson Elementary 741 87 569 5 1 2 2 1 17 2 2 21 3 28 1 171


Where K-5th Students Attend

Crosswell Elementary 461 1 400 18 7 9 3 7 5 1 7 3 61

Dacusville Elementary 502 9 11 435 13 2 7 6 9 6 4 67

East End Elementary 529 7 1 43 13 270 43 10 21 47 8 3 53 8 2 257

Forest Acres Elementary 677 2 23 10 19 521 2 12 17 4 1 50 15 1 155

Hagood Elementary 494 15 1 2 436 5 6 22 3 3 1 58

Liberty Elementary 445 5 2 3 1 4 7 388 2 13 3 12 4 1 56

Liberty Primary 494 8 2 5 1 2 2 6 419 1 9 8 19 12 75

McKissick Academy 419 1 3 1 11 19 29 19 3 21 230 23 1 51 7 189

Pickens Elementary 483 20 1 10 3 5 77 25 11 322 2 7 161

Six Mile Elementary 477 13 2 2 24 15 8 405 8 72

West End Elementary 577 2 1 8 7 4 10 3 54 29 6 1 449 2 1 127


Live In, Attend Out (K-5) 1,747 56 119 23 111 99 333 99 189 204 127 107 65 215

51 12/16/2021
SCHOOL DISTRICT OF PICKENS COUNTY, SC
DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY 2021

Where 6-8th Students Live

)
-8
(6
In
dents Attend

nd
tte
S

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Where 6-8th Stud

269 791 1,339 506 582 39 2 357


Dacusville Middle School 273 239 25 8 1 34

Edwards Middle School 827 1 757 10 30 12 17 70

Gettys Middle School 1,361 18 3 1,247 55 24 14 114


Liberty Middle School 468 1 24 29 397 9 7 1 70

Pickens Middle School 599 10 7 28 24 529 1 69


Live In, Attend Out (6-8) 318 30 34 92 109 53

Where 9-12th Students Live

2)
-1
Where 9-12th Sttudents Attend

(9
In
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D

1,139 1,757 702 1,279 76 5 527


Daniel High School 1,197 1,074 17 40 20 46 123

Easley High School 1,751 8 1,610 47 69 15 2 139

Liberty High School 686 34 41 576 24 10 1 109

Pickens High School 1,324 23 89 39 1,166 5 2 156


Live In, Attend Out (9-12) 451 65 147 126 113

52 12/16/2021
School District
64
of Pickens County, SC Mountain
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2021-22 Elementary School Zones Wilderness
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281

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Miles Data Sources: SDPC Pickens County, ESRI


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2021-22 Student Density Analysis Pickens Elementary

ME E C E M

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ESTotal Enrollment (K-5th) 483

TO

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Total Enrollment (K-5th) 477

RD

CO
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(Quantile Classification)

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D
BRO

LR
A
R

Y
NW A MIL 178
K
LE
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#
*
RD
CK

LN
RD

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MS

Total Enrollment (9-12th) 686 TTY


FE
WO O

HA
ST T BE
SIM
ST
AD

ML
ON S S SCHOOL R D

H
RD
Out of District 10 EA TAINE SIMMS C AT
DS
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OL

BRIDGE RE

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Unmatched 1 PE ST PIN AR
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PP

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Total Live-In (9-12th) 702 LL


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ST

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Live and Attend In 576


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LIBERTY HWY
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ER

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N

Live Out, Attend In 109 R SHAR U RC H OAK


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PT
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SHIRLEY RD

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BA
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Live In, Attend Out 126


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ONote: Concentration represents counts of students
A

FORD RD C LD a quarter-mile radius. Concentrations of less

ET
Y within
DO RD GR
VI

TE
COLLEGE AVE

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than 6 students
DLETO
C

:
RY

RD
F VIL L
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88 E HWY
DR

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EN
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PICKE NS DR
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Miles P Data Sources: SDPC Pickens County, ESRI
EN

TO
E
LD

N
OL
WE RD

AC OK

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H
IT
RI

Cartographer: SD, Dec 2021

RD
W
O

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64
Pickens High School

KR
EA
9
64 G
J ONES AP RD

113

RE
School District of Pickens County, SC
E

EE
Y P R VER
GA C 25

KR
W Total Enrollment (9-12th) 1,324
EH ST EA
AY

DAM
AT

47
A

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Pickens High School

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LA

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2021-22 Student Density Analysis

11
Y

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E Total Live-In (9-12th) 1,279

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RSO

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Legend

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276

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Schools

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E
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HS Zones 2021-22
RD 414

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SC O A LS R D

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RK
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Y
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NEW H
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PAST

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ER RD E

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T
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L

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OR

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EH

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IT D
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PickensWHHS
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E DR
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TLE R DIN G R O OL L Student Density

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H

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CI
178

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BOO

BBS M O UN T A
PA C E BR I D G
HW Y NNELL R S OR
D (Quantile Classification)

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LL
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TU
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RD

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DA
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EX

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RE

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#
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PA

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IM OA 183
RD

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M
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NS

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WY
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BRIDGE R

PK

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M ST A
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R

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RD

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D
R
CL D
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E RD
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133
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RD L E NHAR D T R
253
RE

CA D RD
SR
AL "
) "
)
D

KAY DR
N SH O D
130 G LE MR RD
LOVEA

EL OL IVE ST DA HAM 124 counts of students


DA L AT
A

Note: Concentration represents


LU
B
P

IL
H

L SA within a quarter-mile radius. Concentrations of less


RD
RD

than 6 students are excluded.

:
SF

OD EL L RD L
E

137 EA
SE

LUSK
LA

0 2 4 AZ "
)
GS H

E # 123
*
ST

"
) BR
RD

D
D

Miles R Data Sources: SDPC Pickens County, ESRI


LS
IP DR

ST 153
RT

BE L OA Cartographer: SD, Dec 2021


L E SH "
STEWA

)
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WY A R T GIN
LIB E RT Y H
RD

81
"
)

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