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The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment
report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was prepared in compliance with
the Official Rules of the CFA Institute Research Challenge, is submitted by a team of university students as part of this
annual educational initiative and should not be considered a professional report.
Disclosures:
Ownership and material conflicts of interest
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know a financial interest in the securities of this company.
The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content
or publication of this report.
Receipt of compensation
Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue.
Position as an officer or a director
The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company.
Market making
The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities.
Disclaimer
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be
reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information
is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment
advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by
any individual affiliated with CFA Society Philippines CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock.
CENTURY PACIFIC FOOD, INC. ALPHA SECURITIES
Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Industry
Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) This report is published for educational purposes only by
students competing in the CFA Institute Research Challenge.
ALPHA SECURITIES
ALPHA SECURITIES | CNPF
| CNPF PAGE11
PAGE
Net Income 7.48% 7.38% 8.02% 8.48% 8.83% 9.20%
Margin (%)
ROE (%) 16.95% 16.12% 16.88% 17.13% 17.09% 17.02%
P/E (x) 19% 25.28% 20.95% 18.69% 16.90% 14.72%
Source: Company Data, Team Estimates
Products
(High)
(High)
Valuation
We used a DCF valuation to come up with our target price of Php 21.00/sh with
a 40.59% upside compared to CNPF’s closing price on November 22, 2018 of
Php 14.94.
Revenues
To arrive at the forecasted revenues, we independently considered each of the
business segments - marine, meat, milk, tuna OEM, and coconut OEM and we
have arrived with an upside of 40.59% with a target price of Php 21.00/sh. We
have considered the launching of new products and expansion for future plans.
We used the low double-digit growth of 11% for revenues driven broadening of
market distribution. Each segment forecasted depends on how it performs
historically in its respective industries. With a wider market and strong brand
quality, CNPF positions itself to the top despite raw material fluctuations that
happened in the past. GPM ratio improved by 0.53% annually in 2019 and
forecasted to increase to 22.57% by 2020.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Using the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), we have arrived with 0.5126
calculated beta (Appendix C), market assumptions risk free rate of 4.50%, and
market risk premium of 8.0% used in computing cost of equity of 8.60%. Using
the capital asset pricing model, debt-to-MV ratio of 0.41, we obtained a WACC
of 7.87%.
Terminal Value
The terminal growth rate used is 3.5% which was based on free cash flow
computed (see Appendix C).
Relative Valuation
We compared CNPF to its domestic peers by considering its different
subsidiaries. We believe that these local peers are fit to play for CNPF’s branded
segments. We compared its Market Capitalization, Enterprise value, P/E Ratio,
PB Ratio, and P/CF ratio. For more detained computation see Appendix C.
WACC Assumptions
Assumptions Rate Methodology
Risk Free Rate 4.50% Philippine government
bond with a forward
Financial Analysis
We used a DCF valuation to come up with our target price of Php 21.00/sh with
a 40.59% upside compared to CNPF’s closing price on November 22, 2018 of
Php 14.94.
Key Financial Ratios
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Dupont Analysis
Gross Margin (%) 26.57 26.56 21.07 21.51 22.04 22.57 23.1 23.63 24.16
Operating Margin (%) 11.71 13.48 10.42 10.03 10.6 11.47 12.09 12.57 13.09
Interest Burden (%) 99.96 97.86 96.88 94.82 92.78 93.27 93.49 93.63 93.7
Tax Burden (%) 70.82 75.11 76.81 78.68 75 75 75 75 75
Net Margin (%) 8.29 9.91 7.75 7.48 7.38 8.02 8.48 8.83 9.2
Asset Turnover (x) 0.12 1.34 1.41 1.25 1.29 1.27 1.24 1.21 1.17
Return on Assets (%) 11.52 13.32 10.92 9.34 9.54 10.2 10.51 10.71 10.8
Financial Leverage (x) 1.41 1.36 1.34 1.34 1.44 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.42
Return on Equity (%) 18.69 21.18 17.62 16.95 16.12 16.88 17.13 17.09 17.02
Liquidity Indicators
Current Ratio (x) 1.68 2.26 2.06 2.03 2.16 2.31 2.46 2.66 2.83
Quick Ratio (x) 0.69 0.82 0.96 0.85 0.71 1.05 1.2 1.38 1.55
Leverage Indicators
Debt/Equity (x) 0.62 0.59 0.61 0.81 0.69 0.65 0.63 0.6 0.58
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.52 0.51 0.5 0.7 0.65 0.45 0.37 0.28 0.19
Operating Efficiency Indicators
Inventory Turnover (x) 2.89 2.93 3.58 3.19 2.56 2.7 2.94 2.94 2.94
Operating Cycle (Days) 182.5 176.19 153.54 174.22 202.02 189.47 178.29 178.52 178.68
Cash Conversion Cycle
100.16 106.19 84.95 100.34 122.84 114.19 103.85 105.48 106.94
(Days)
Shareholder Indicators
EPS (Php/sh) 0.87 0.5 0.72 0.8 0.87 1.05 1.23 1.42 1.63
EPS growth (%) 14.47 -42.52 44.08 11.07 8.99 20.69 17.07 15.1 14.92
Source: Company Data, Team Estimates
Investment Risks
Market Risk | Interest Risk Investment Risk Matrix
CNPF is at its comfortable gearing ratios. We believe that CNPF’s gearing ratios
(Net gearing ratios 0.3x) that there is a low possibility of the exposure of interest
rate risk. CNPF is still capable in borrowing cost while maintaining its debt to
equity ratio of 3:1.
Market Risk | Equity Risk
CNPF is ensuring a good gearing ratios and actively engaging to its shareholders
by hosting a regular meetings of related party transactions (RPT) and disclosing
every engagement to its shareholders.
Market Risk | Raw Materials Prices
The observed fluctuation on raw materials prices make CNPF exposed on Source: Team Analysis
volatility of the effects of the price changes for the company that can lead to
lower profitability metrics. Even due to formidable effects on price effects, CNPF
has a gear on study and monitoring raw materials prices and trends. Thus, CNPF
still support the double digit increase and still achieved bottom line profit.
Market Risk | Foreign Exchange Rate Risk
CNPF is engaged in the export business primarily from OEM and coconut
products. To mitigate the risk of fluctuation of foreign exchange risk, CNPF is
hedging its raw materials.
Operational Risk | Financial Risk
With the volatility of market interest rates, CNPF might experience financial risk
due to different macroeconomic factors which indicates the bullish and bearish
of the market. CNPF maintains a good Liquidity ratios as the company targeted
to sustain at least 1.0:1. Price adjustments from raw materials affects the
financial risk of CNPF.
Operational Risk | Environmental Risk
CNPF is engaged in sustainable practices by increasing its environmental
awareness. CNPF makes sure that it monitors the use of its natural resources
and the environmental impact to the operations. Risks of contamination and
safety purposes affects CNPF, thus it will weaken its branding and reputation.
Corporate Governance
CNPF maintains its Corporate Governance on the basis of ensuring that it meets
its duties and responsibilities to the stockholders and other stakeholders which
include, among others, customers, employees, suppliers, financiers,
government and to its community in which it operates. The company’s
performance, set of rules and framework is governed by said compliance of the
Board of Members and the Management to said guidance. A detailed evaluation
of CNPF’s corporate governance can be found in Appendix D.
Selection of independent directors in seeking board decisions
Currently, CNPF has duly appointed four independent directors (ID) to assist the
company in providing sustainable solutions under its helm. Coming from a
previously family-owned business, this action delivers fair choices on behalf of
the company. Its lead ID is Fernan Victor Lukban and he is joined by Johnip Cua,
Frances Yu, and Eileen Grace Araneta all of which are non-executives and have
supported their competency and knowledge in the industry and business. The
positions for CEO and Chairman of the Board remains separate which entails a
further elaborate opportunity to discuss and raise concerns for CNPF. The former
is held by Teodoro Alexander Po, elected in July 2018 while the latter is still held
by Christopher Po, re-elected in July 2018.
Designating committees to oversee company’s exposure to risk
With its four established committees, CNPF takes serious arrangements in terms
of monitoring and analyzing the impact of its decisions. Together with its Audit
Committee, Corporate Governance Committee, Board Risk Oversight Committee
(BROC) and Related Party Transaction Committee (RTP), all its plans and
activities are rigorously checked and counterchecked in order to minimize the
risk. Consultants, auditors and risk managers are hired and tasked to determine
the objectivity of the transactions cognizant of regulatory requirements.
Decisions are made with high regard to the company’s welfare and in the best
interest of its shareholders who are bestowed with privileges of voting, appraisal
and other significant rights.
Corporate Social Responsibility
CNPF cited 12 of its social responsibility activities that continue to cater to locals,
especially the less privileged. These programs include direct purchases from
partner fisherfolk and fishing companies where they can have the opportunity
to sell their products at fair market price. Relative to its “LinkSFarM” Project,
which stands for Linking Smaller Farmers to the Market, CNPF provides access
Appendix C: Valuation
Appendix C-1: Free Cash Flow Computation
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net income 2,815,244,811 3,408,926,643 4,108,789,958 4,727,283,340 5,583,640,536
Add: 576,614,276 724,155,390 830,333,705 919,842,321 967,221,337
depreciation
Add: interest 305,993,663 338,324,392 380,692,362 432,496,693 489,710,625
expense (1-
tr)
Less: CapEx - - - - -
2,000,000,000 1,800,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,200,000,000 2,400,000,000
Less: Change - -861,126,016 - - -
in WC 1,519,076,105 1,298,476,063 1,750,718,519 1,539,388,375
Total FCF 178,776,646 3,532,532,441 2,021,339,962 2,128,903,834 3,101,184,123
Appendix C-2: Multiples
CNPF URC RFM FB
Outstanding Shares 3,542,258,595 2204161868 3457157758 5909220090
Stock Price 14.94 149.5 5.46 89.95
Market Capitalization 52,921,343,409.30 329,522,199,266.00 18,876,081,358.68 531,534,347,095.50
Appendix E: Financials
Appendix E-1: Statement of Comprehensive Income
In Millions 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
(except per share
values)
Net Sales 23,325 26,796 32,907 37,885 41,863 46,468 51,487 56,893 62,753
Cost of Goods 17,128 19,678 25,973 29,738 32,638 35,982 39,595 43,451 47,594
Sold
Gross Profit 6,196 7,118 6,935 8,148 9,225 10,486 11,892 13,442 15,159
Other Income 100 272 428 536 435 554 637 694 736
6,297 7,390 7,363 8,683 9,660 11,040 12,528 14,136 15,894
Operating
Expenses 3,529 3,725 3,893 4,721 5,133 5,604 6,178 6,827 7,530
Finance Costs 1 77 107 197 321 359 405 455 517
Other Expenses 36 51 40 164 88 106 125 156 149
3,566 3,854 4,040 5,081 5,541 6,069 6,709 7,438 8,197
Profit Before Tax 2,730 3,535 3,322 3,602 4,119 4,971 5,819 6,698 7,697
Income Tax
797 880 770 768 1,030 1,243 1,455 1,674 1,924
Expense
Profit for the Year 1,934 2,656 2,552 2,834 3,089 3,728 4,364 5,023 5,773
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Reclassified Subsequently to Profit or Loss
Currency
translation 29 -14 5 3 - - - - -
adjustment
Not Reclassified Subsequently to Profit or Loss
Remeasurement
-24 22 5 16 - - - - -
gains on
retirement benefit
obligation
5 9 10 18 14 16 19 22 22
Total
Comprehensive 1,939 2,664 2,561 2,853 3,103 3,745 4,383 5,045 5,795
Income
Basic and diluted
earnings per P0.8664 P0.7500 P0.7204 P0.8001 P0.8759 P1.0571 P1.2374 P1.4243 P1.6361
share
Appendix E-2: Statement of Financial Position
In Millions 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
(except per share
values)
Cash and cash
722 696 1,549 1,676 587 4,273 6,503 9,067 12,615
equivalents
Trade and other
3,593 3,955 5,329 7,076 6,538 7,257 8,040 8,885 9,800
receivables - net
Due from related
41 91 186 123 147 184 211 210 239
parties
Held-to-maturity
15 13 - - - - - - -
investments
Inventories - net 5,926 7,529 6,995 11,656 13,860 12,816 14,102 15,476 16,951
Biological assets 31 35 23 43 48 50 51 61 66
Prepayments and
other current 219 440 477 467 520 681 839 982 1,199
assets - net
Prepaid income
- - 126 - - - - - -
tax
Total Current
10,547 12,758 14,684 21,042 21,700 25,260 29,746 34,681 40,870
Assets
Property, plant
and equipment - 3,134 3,945 4,936 5,458 6,881 7,457 7,927 8,307 8,640
net
Intangible assets -
2,955 3,054 3,584 3,526 3,526 3,526 3,526 3,526 3,526
net
Deferred tax
82 118 95 219 174 200 221 263 272
assets
Held-to-maturity
investments - net 13 - - - - - - - -
of current portion
Other non-current
51 57 60 92 90 99 110 126 135
assets
Total Non-current
6,235 7,175 8,675 9,296 10,671 11,283 11,783 12,223 12,574
Assets
TOTAL ASSETS 16,782 19,932 23,359 30,337 32,371 36,542 41,529 46,903 53,444
Trade and other
3,864 4,730 5,031 7,007 7,154 7,689 8,461 8,928 9,780
payables
Borrowings -
2,250 671 2,089 3,210 2,734 3,059 3,455 3,883 4,413
current portion
Income tax
147 149 - 99 127 125 121 174 197
payable
Due to related
14 90 22 11 51 64 46 54 70
parties
Finance lease
obligation - - - - 27 - - - - -
current portion
Total Current
6,274 5,639 7,142 10,353 10,065 10,937 12,083 13,039 14,459
Liabilities
Borrowings - net
- 1,634 1,620 3,103 3,095 3,463 3,911 4,396 4,995
of current portion
Retirement benefit
157 118 108 78 51 56 62 68 75
obligation
Deferred tax
4 3 8 - - - - - -
liability
Finance lease
obligation - net of
- - - 79 - - - - -
non-current
portion
Total Non-current
161 1,754 1,735 3,260 3,146 3,519 3,973 4,464 5,071
Liabilities
TOTAL
6,435 7,393 8,876 13,613 13,211 14,457 16,057 17,504 19,530
LIABILITIES
Share capital 2,361 3,541 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542 3,542
Share premium 4,912 4,912 4,928 4,937 4,937 4,937 4,937 4,937 4,937
Share-based
compensation 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
reserve
Other reserves 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
Currency
translation 49 35 40 43 60 59 65 72 82
adjustment
Retained earnings 2,990 4,015 5,934 8,164 10,582 13,509 16,890 20,810 25,314
TOTAL EQUITY 10,347 12,539 14,483 16,725 19,159 22,085 25,473 29,400 33,914
TOTAL
LIABILITIES AND
16,782 19,932 23,359 30,337 32,371 36,542 41,529 46,903 53,444
SHAREHOLDER'S
EQUITY
Appendix E-3: Statement of Cash Flow
In Millions 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
(except per
share values)
Cash Flows from Operating Activities
Profit before tax 2,730 3,535 3,322 3,602 4,119 4,971 5,819 6,698 7,697
Depreciation and
152 359 525 727 577 724 830 920 967
amortization
Finance costs 1 77 107 197 321 359 405 455 517
Loss on
inventory 18 19 12 95 53 52 63 79 74
obsolescence
Provisions 8 - 3 93 30 38 53 71 60
Loss on
impairment of 13 5 1 51 22 25 32 43 38
input VAT
Unrealized
foreign exchange 11 -5 -130 45 - - - - -
loss (gain) - net
Retirement
58 34 40 42 57 55 62 68 77
benefit expense
Loss on
impairment of - - - 37 - - - - -
goodwill
Loss on decline
in value of 4 7 11 22 17 18 21 23 24
inventories
Doubtful
accounts 6 94 6 14 45 60 37 49 62
expense
Share based
compensation 2 - 3 9 - - - - -
expense
Gain (loss) on
disposal of
4 -5 -3 2 - - - - -
property, plant
and equipment
Interest income -8 -6 -5 -8 -9 -9 -9 -11 -12
Reversal of
allowance of - -6 -56 -29 -52 -61 -52 -63 -71
inventory
Reversal of
- -70 -54 -72 -82 -84 -95 -106 -115
accruals
Gain from sale of
- -4 -158 -124 -69 -109 -154 -144 -148
scrap - net
Reversal of
allowance for
- - -33 - - - - - -
doubtful
accounts
Loss on
impairment of - - 2 - - - - - -
PPE
Operating cash
flows before
2,999 4,035 3,592 4,703 5,028 6,038 7,012 8,084 9,171
working capital
changes
Decrease
- - - - - - - - -
(increase) in:
Trade and other
-780 -313 -1,213 -1,806 539 -719 -784 -844 -915
receivables
Due from related
171 -50 -95 63 -24 -36 -27 0 -29
parties
Inventories -537 -1,548 725 -4,625 -2,204 1,045 -1,287 -1,373 -1,476
Biological assets 6 -3 12 -20 -5 -2 -1 -10 -5
Prepayments and
other current 1 -225 -33 -42 -48 -101 -51 -45 -83
assets
Other noncurrent
99 -7 -2 -33 3 -9 -11 -16 -9
assets
Increase (decrease) in:
Trade and other
-405 808 353 1,954 146 536 772 467 851
payables
Due to related
-1,378 -21 -68 -11 41 13 -19 8 16
parties
Other noncurrent
- - - 100 - - - - -
liabilities
Exchange
difference on
translating -66 - - 21 - - - - -
operating assets
and liabilities
Cash generated
110 2,676 3,271 304 3,475 6,763 5,606 6,270 7,520
from operations
Contribution to
the retirement -31 -41 -44 -49 -53 -60 -66 -72 -80
fund
Income tax paid -783 -924 -1,019 -681 -1,030 -1,243 -1,455 -1,674 -1,924
Interest received 6 5 4 7 8 8 8 10 11
Net cash from
(used in)
-698 1,715 2,212 -418 2,400 5,468 4,093 4,533 5,527
operating
activities
Cash Flows from Investing Activities
Acquisitions of
property, plant -1,068 -1,559 -1,532 -1,308 - - - - -
and equipment
Proceeds from
sale of property,
364 358 19 78 - - - - -
plant and
equipment
Acquisitions of
- -61 -538 - - - - - -
intangible assets
Maturities of HTM
151 14 13 - - - - - -
investments
Interest income
3 1 0 - - - - - -
received
Acquisitions of
subsidiaries (net -3,371 -11 - - - - - - -
of cash acquired)
Net cash used in
investing -3,921 -1,259 -2,038 -1,230 -2,000 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300 -1,300
activities
Cash Flows from Financing Activities
Proceeds from
2,250 1,544 2,665 4,050 - 694 844 912 1,129
borrowings
Repayment of
- -1,490 -1,261 -1,446 -484 - - - -
borrowings
Dividends paid -446 -472 -638 -638 -685 -818 -1,002 -1,126 -1,291
Finance costs
- -65 -105 -191 -321 -359 -405 -455 -517
paid
Proceeds from
issuance of share 2,272 - 17 - - - - - -
capital
Net cash from
(used in)
4,076 -483 679 1,776 -1,490 -482 -563 -669 -679
financing
activities
Net Increase
(Decrease) in
-542 -27 853 128 -1,090 3,686 2,230 2,565 3,548
Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Cash and Cash
Equivalents, 1,264 722 696 1,549 1,676 587 4,273 6,503 9,067
Beginning
Cash and Cash
Equivalents, 722 696 1,549 1,676 587 4,273 6,503 9,067 12,615
Ending
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