MENA-2 MONDAY MORNING ROUND-UP

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Egypt
No protective measures to be imposed on Turkish steel imports
NUCA to resell returned, withdrawn land plots before returning down payments to developers
Ibrahim Kamel detained for 15 days for inciting violence against demonstrators
CAE 1Q2011 earnings fall on provisioning charges, high tax charge
Lecico to receive EGP41 million insurance claim for 2010 fire
UNB-Egypt to lend Kuwait Kharafi Group USD 80 million

Saudi Arabia
SABIC, Exxon JV awards contracts for rubber plant

Morocco
Police disperse opposition protest

EFG Hermes Research

Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC) - 1Q2011 Net Income Beats Our Estimate on Clinker Sales - Flash Note
15 May 2011

Agenda
Egypt
16-19 May >> Juhayna 1Q2011 results (expected)
16-19 May >> Elsewedy Electric 1Q2011 results (expected)
Wed 18 May >> Orascom Telecom (OT) 1Q2011 results
Thu 19 May >> Mobinil AGM
Mon 23 May >> Orascom Development Holding (OD Holding) AGM
Thu 26 May >> Oriental Weavers ex-dividend for EGP2.0/share cash dividend
Sun 29 May >> Maridive ex-dividend date for USD0.06 cash DPS
Mon 30 May >> Sidpec AGM and EGM
Wed 1 June >> Telecom Egypt (TE) 1Q2011 results

Saudi Arabia
Wed 1 June >> Alujain AGM

Egypt News
No protective measures to be imposed on Turkish steel imports
Egypt’s Anti-Dumping committee has concluded a six month investigation regarding the alleged dumping
of Turkish steel in the Egyptian market in 2009. The Egyptian Chamber of Metallurgical Industries had
asked for the imposition of dumping tariffs, however, the committee has decided that local producers did
not suffer from the Turkish steel imports. Subsequently, there is no need to impose any protective
measures. A meeting will be held on 18 May 2011 to present the committee’s final report for submission
to the Minister of Trade and Industry Samir EL Sayad. (Al Masry Al Youm)
NUCA to resell returned, withdrawn land plots before returning down payments to developers
The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) has decided that it must resell land plots that have been
returned or withdrawn from developers before it can transfer down payments made by developers to the
accounts of other plots with liabilities outstanding, Al Mal reported, quoting Adel Naguib, NUCA’s Senior
Vice President. If the resale price is equal to or above the price at which it was allocated to the
developer, all down payments paid for the land will be returned to the developer. If the resale price is
below the price at which it was sold to the developer, the price differential will be paid by the developer.
This condition will be applied to land plots that have been returned by developers voluntarily and land
plots that have been withdrawn by NUCA from developers that have either been delinquent with
scheduled payments, or have not abided by NUCA’s construction terms. Naguib added that 0.5% of the
land value on returned plots will be deducted as a fine for previously occupying the land. (Al Mal)

Ibrahim Kamel detained for 15 days for inciting violence against demonstrators
Businessman Ibrahim Kamel has been detained for 15 days on suspicion of organising violent protests,
known as the “camel and horse charge,” against anti-government demonstrators in February 2011. Kamel
was released on 15 May 2011 as he was found innocent of inciting violence against anti-government
demonstrators on 8 April 2011, Al Mal reported. Ibrahim Kamel had been a member of the board of
directors at real estate firm Egyptian Resorts Company (ERC) [EGTS.CA], but was removed from the
position last month. (Al Mal)

ERC: EGP0.85, Rating: Sell, FV: EGP0.9, MCap: USD151 million, EGTS EY / EGTS.CA

CAE 1Q2011 earnings fall on provisioning charges, high tax charge

Credit Agricole Egypt (CAE) [CIEB.CA] has reported 1Q2011 net profit of EGP60 million, down 45% Y-o-Y
and 51% Q-o-Q, and well below our forecast of EGP97 million. Revenue growth was resilient at 11% Y-o-Y,
with operating earnings (pre-provisions) increasing by just 3% Y-o-Y as operating costs grew 18% Y-o-Y.
Earnings fell on higher provisioning charges and on an unusually high tax rate of 45% in 1Q2011 (the bank’s
effective tax rate was 20% during 2010). Revenues were slightly ahead of our forecast, with costs,
provisioning and charges all higher than expected. The loan book grew 28% Y-o-Y and 5% Q-o-Q. Deposits
grew 9% Y-o-Y, but were flat on a Q-o-Q basis. Both loan growth and deposit growth were ahead of our
expectations. CAE reported an 11% Y-o-Y growth in total banking income in 1Q2011, 2% ahead of our
forecast, with fee income and other non-interest income exceeding expectations. Total provisioning
charges stood at EGP32 million in 1Q2011 (c110bps of gross loans on an annualised basis), compared to a
positive provisioning of EGP2 million in 1Q2010. The actual charge was higher than our forecast of EGP17
million. Details on NPLs/past due loans are not yet available, but the charge, which is the highest
quarterly charge over the past three years, highlights the likelihood of credit quality deterioration in the
coming quarters. As of December 2010, CAE’s credit quality indicators were sound (NPL ratio of 2.6% and
NPL coverage of 108%). (Company Disclosure, Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo)

CAE: EGP11.85, Rating: Neutral, FV: EGP12.5, Mcap: USD 574 million, CIEB EY / CIEB.CA

Lecico to receive EGP41 million insurance claim for 2010 fire

Lecico (LCSW.CA) has reached an agreement with Mohandes Insurance Company to receive a EGP41
million insurance claim on a warehouse housing sanitary ware exports in Borg El-Arab that caught fire on 2
June 2010. The fire completely destroyed the warehouse structure along with c53% of inventory, mainly
sanitary ware export stock (28% of total sanitary ware stocks) and accessories. Lecico management
estimated in June 2010 that the total damages reached cEGP70 million. (Al Mal)

Lecico: EGP14.1, Rating: Neutral, FV: EGP15.9, MCap: USD144 million, LECI EY / LCSW.CA

UNB-Egypt to lend Kuwait Kharafi Group USD 80 million

Union National Bank Egypt (UNB-Egypt) [UNBE.CA] has approved a USD80 million loan to the Kuwait
conglomerate, Kharafi Group. The loan will help the group expand into the Egyptian market, according to
Al Rai daily. The loan is a part of the bank’s plan to finance robust and economically feasible projects in
Egypt in spite of the country’s economic slowdown. UNB-Egypt is 94.9%-owned by the UAE’s Union
National Bank (UNB) [UNB.AD]. (Zawya Dow Jones)

Saudi Arabia News

SABIC, Exxon JV awards contracts for rubber plant
SABIC (2010.SE) has announced that it has awarded contracts to Jacobs Engineering Group and Mitsui
Engineering and Shipbuilding for the basic engineering works on their new joint venture (JV) elastomer
project with Exxon Mobil. The contracts will cover the front end engineering and design (FEED) for the JV
project, which will produce c400,000 tonnes per year of rubber, carbon black and synthetic polymers. The
cost of the project was not mentioned in the announcement, but according to a statement made by an
Exxon Mobil executive to Reuters, the project will cost USD5 billion. (Argaam, Reuters, Zawya Dow Jones)

SABIC: SAR107.50, Rating: Buy, FV: SAR133, MCap: USD86,000 million, SABIC AB / 2010.SE

Morocco News
Police disperse opposition protest
Moroccan security services used rubber truncheons to disperse a pro-democracy protest on the southern
outskirts of Rabat on 15 May 2011, injuring several people, a Reuters reporter at the scene said. Dozens of
protesters belonging to the February 20 anti-government movement attempted to hold a protest picnic in
front of what they allege is a secret government detention centre where Islamists are being held. Anti-
riot police chased the protesters before the rally could begin. The government's chief spokesman, Khalid
Naciri, was quoted as saying by a private Atlantic radio station that the protest was broken up because it
had been banned. He also denied that there was a secret detention facility in the vicinity, saying the
building singled out by the protesters was a local government administrative office. (Reuters)

EFG Hermes Research

 
Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC) - 1Q2011 Net Income Beats Our Estimate on Clinker Sales - Flash Note
15 May 2011
1Q2011 Net Income Beats Expectations, Maintain FV And Neutral Rating: MBSC reported 1Q2011 results,
showing net income of EGP66 million, down 37% Y-o-Y and 20% Q-o-Q, but above our EGP54 million
estimate, on clinker sales. Revenue reached EGP171 million, down 17% Y-o-Y and 34% Q-o-Q. This was 12%
above our EGP153 million estimate, on clinker volumes. The company sold c50,000 tonnes of clinker in
1Q2011, which we had not accounted for in our estimates. MBSC’s EBITDA margin came in at 59%, above
our 55% estimate, mainly due to the contribution of low-cost clinker to the company’s revenue, in our
view. We maintain our fair value (FV) of EGP60 per share and our Neutral rating for the stock.

Volume Drops on Demand Decline, But Market Share Improves: The company’s local sales volume dropped
in 1Q2011 by 8% Y-o-Y on lower demand to c336,000 tonnes (c90% of production capacity); however, this
was 49% higher Q-o-Q, mainly because the company had fixed the technical problems it faced in 4Q2010.
This led to a recovery in MBSC’s market share to 3% in 1Q2011 from 1.8% in 4Q2010. Meanwhile, 1Q2011’s
EBITDA margin contracted by 4 percentage points Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q, due to government-imposed
development fees of EGP15/tonne, in our view.

We Will likely Revisit Our Forecasts And Valuation: Once all Egyptian cement companies under our
coverage release their 1Q2011 financial results, we will likely revise our forecasts and valuation for MBSC
to account for: i) recent sector developments (including the lower-than-expected drop in 1Q2011 demand
and the start-up of several new plants this year), ii) management’s indications that the company’s
cement mills at the second production line will start commercial operations in 2H2011, with an annual
cement production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes, and iii) the distribution of 25% bonus shares, approved
at the AGM on 2 May 2011, which should raise the company’s number of outstanding shares to 50 million.
(Malak Youssef, Ahmed Gad)

[Note – EFG Hermes is not responsible for the accuracy of news items taken from other media.]
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