Understanding global PM2.

5 concentrations and their drivers in recent decades (1998–2016)

了解近幾十年來（1998-2016）全球 PM2.5 濃度及其驅動因素

Abstract

The threat of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is increasing globally. Tackling this issue requires an accurate
understanding of its trends and drivers. In this study, global risk regions of PM2.5 concentrations during
1998–2016 were spatiotemporally derived. Time series analysis was conducted in the spatial relationship
between PM2.5 and three socio-environmental drivers: population, urban ratio, and vegetation greenness
that can cause changes in the concentration of PM2.5.
細顆粒物 (PM2.5) 的威脅在全球範圍內正在增加。解決這個問題需要準確了解其趨勢和驅動因素。
在本研究中，1998-2016 年期間 PM2.5 濃度的全球風險區域是時空推導的。對 PM2.5 與可引起
PM2.5 濃度變化的人口、城市比例和植被綠度這三個社會環境驅動因素之間的空間關係進行了時間
序列分析。

“High Risk” areas were widely distributed in India and China. In India and sub-Saharan Africa, the
increased overall population was strongly correlated with PM2.5 concentrations. Urban ratio increased in
both developed and developing countries. A “decoupling” phenomenon occurred in developed countries,
where urban expansion continued while PM2.5 concentrations decreased. Vegetation greenness and PM2.5
were strongly correlated in High Risk zones.
“高風險”地區在印度和中國廣泛分佈。在印度和撒哈拉以南非洲，總體人口的增加與 PM2.5 濃度
密切相關。發達國家和發展中國家的城市比率均有所上升。發達國家出現“脫鉤”現象，城市擴張
持續，PM2.5 濃度下降。高風險區的植被綠度和 PM2.5 密切相關。

Although urban expansion and population growth generally reduce vegetation greenness, developed
countries reduced PM2.5 while maintaining greenness, whereas developing countries increased PM2.5 with
decreasing greenness significantly in High Risk regions. Ultimately, economic and national growth should
occur without increasing PM2.5 concentrations. Recent cases from Europe and the eastern United States
demonstrate that this is possible, depending on the development pathway.
雖然城市擴張和人口增長普遍降低了植被綠度，但發達國家在保持綠化的同時降低了 PM2.5，而發
展中國家在高風險地區隨著綠化率的降低而增加了 PM2.5。最終，經濟和國家的增長應該不會增加
PM2.5 濃度。最近來自歐洲和美國東部的案例表明這是可能的，這取決於發展路徑。

Introduction
Since the World Health Organization (WHO) designated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) as a Group 1
carcinogen in 2013, global interest regarding the threat of PM2.5 to human health has increased significantly
(Chen et al., 2017, WHO, 2017, Zhang et al., 2017, Apte et al., 2018).
自 2013 年世界衛生組織 (WHO) 將細顆粒物 (PM2.5) 指定為第 1 組致癌物以來，全球對 PM2.5 對
人類健康威脅的關注顯著增加（Chen 等，2017 年，WHO， 2017 年，張等人，2017 年，Apte 等人，
2018 年）。

A recent study reported that 8.8 million deaths worldwide occur annually due to air pollution, showing that
the problem of PM2.5 is a global challenge and not simply a regional air pollution issue (Wang et al., 2017a,
Li et al., 2018b, Lelieveld et al., 2019).
最近的一項研究報告稱，全球每年有 880 萬人因空氣污染而死亡，這表明 PM2.5 問題是一個全球
性挑戰，而不僅僅是區域性空氣污染問題（Wang 等，2017a，Li 等，2018b） , Lelieveld 等人,
2019）。

In addition, if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted at current levels, they are expected to cause great
damage throughout the 21st century (Allen et al., 2016, Rao et al., 2017, Silva et al., 2017, Xu and
Lamarque, 2018, Allen et al., 2019, Park et al., 2020).
此外，如果溫室氣體繼續以目前的水平排放，預計它們將在整個 21 世紀造成巨大破壞（Allen et al.,
2016 , Rao et al., 2017 , Silva et al., 2017 , Xu and Lamarque , 2018 , Allen 等人, 2019 , Park 等人,
2020 )。

Despite the mitigation efforts of many countries, international organizations, and civil societies, PM2.5
continues to be a global environmental and health issue (Cai et al., 2018, Hou et al., 2018).
儘管許多國家、國際組織和民間社會做出了緩解努力，但 PM2.5 仍然是一個全球性的環境和健康問
題（蔡等，2018；侯等，2018）。

Numerous studies have been conducted regarding changes in PM2.5 concentrations and their causes, and
research in this area is ongoing (Li et al., 2016, Li et al., 2019, Yuan et al., 2019, Yue et al., 2020).
關於 PM2.5 濃度變化及其成因的研究已經有很多，這方面的研究還在進行中（Li 等，2016；Li 等，
2019；Yuan 等，2019；Yue 等， 2020 年）。

ome studies have suggested that China’s air pollutant emissions have decreased due to its reduction policy
(Li et al., 2018a, Samset et al., 2019), whereas others have indicated that its particulate matter has increased
in accordance with economic growth (Li et al., 2016, Zhang et al., 2020).
一些研究表明，中國的空氣污染物排放量已經減少，因為它減少政策（Li 等人，2018A，Samset 等，
2019），而其他人都表示，其顆粒物按照經濟增長（增加 Li 等 al., 2016 , Zhang et al., 2020 )。

Depending on the data, methodology, or approach concept, different results can be obtained for the same
period and region (Li et al., 2019, Yue et al., 2020). Thus, accurate and objective information on where
PM2.5 concentrations are increasing or decreasing and which regions are most at risk is needed.
根據數據、方法論或方法概念的不同，可以在同一時期和地區獲得不同的結果（Li 等人，2019 年，
Yue 等人，2020 年）。因此，需要關於 PM2.5 濃度在哪裡增加或減少以及哪些地區風險最大的準確
和客觀的信息。

Primary causes of increased PM2.5 relate to social factors, such as industry, urbanization, and population
growth, but land use or environmental change may also affect PM2.5 at macroscopic levels (Li et al., 2016,
Hsu et al., 2017, Wang et al., 2017b, Tian et al., 2018).
PM2.5 增加的主要原因與工業、城市化、人口增長等社會因素有關，但土地利用或環境變化也可能
在宏觀層面對 PM2.5 產生影響（Li 等，2016；Hsu 等， 2017，Wang 等，2017b，Tian 等，2018 )。
In addition, the causes of increasing PM2.5 concentrations in different regions vary (Ji et al., 2018, Zhang et
al., 2019b), and the causes of PM2.5 occurrence and movement are complex (Wang et al., 2017b, Zhang et
al., 2017).
此外，不同地區 PM2.5 濃度升高的原因各不相同（姬等，2018；張等，2019b），PM2.5 發生和運動
的原因複雜（王等，2017b） , Zhang et al., 2017）。

In other words, to analyze the macroscopic aspects of PM2.5, a spatial approach is required. Long-term
accumulation of global satellite images and spatial data have made spatiotemporal data available (Song et
al., 2019, Li et al., 2019). In particular, van Donkelaar et al. (2016) have contributed to the spatiotemporal
approach by producing worldwide high-resolution PM2.5 data over a 19-year period. Understanding of
PM2.5 status can be improved by determining time-series changes in PM2.5 data and the driving factors
(Chen et al., 2018, Yue et al., 2020). Consequently, the expansion of spatiotemporal data could contribute to
the global understanding of PM2.5.
換句話說，要分析 PM2.5 的宏觀方面，需要空間方法。全球衛星影像和空間數據的長期積累，使得
時空數據變得可用（宋等，2019；李等，2019）。特別是，van Donkelaar 等人。(2016)通過在 19 年
期間產生全球高解析度 PM2.5 數據，為時空方法做出了貢獻。通過確定 PM2.5 數據的時間序列變
化和驅動因素，可以提高對 PM2.5 狀態的了解（Chen 等，2018；Yue 等，2020）。因此，時空數
據的擴展可能有助於全球對 PM2.5 的了解。

The purpose of this study was to improve overall understanding of recent spatiotemporal changes in global
PM2.5 concentrations, their associated risk zones, and related socio-environmental drivers. To this end, we
devised a spatiotemporal risk assessment based on the global PM2.5 concentrations of the last two decades
and analyzed the trends in and relationships between socio-environmental drivers, namely changes in urban
ratio, population, and vegetation greenness, over the same period. We focused on the relationship between
socio-environmental drivers and PM2.5 changes in high-risk regions to determine which drivers contributed
to the high PM2.5 risk. The identification of these influences could contribute to the discovery of the
solution.
本研究的目的是提高對全球 PM2.5 濃度近期時空變化、相關風險區域和相關社會環境驅動因素的整
體理解。為此，我們設計了基於過去 20 年全球 PM2.5 濃度的時空風險評估，並分析了社會環境驅
動因素（即城市比例、人口和植被綠度的變化）的趨勢和關係。同一時期。我們專注於社會環境驅
動因素與高風險地區 PM2.5 變化之間的關係，以確定哪些驅動因素導致了高 PM2.5 風險。識別這
些影響可能有助於發現解決方案。

Data and methods 數據和方法

2.1. Methods

2.1.1. Spatiotemporal approach to understanding global PM2.5 concentrations