Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155

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Environmental Challenges
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envc

PM2.5 concentration prediction during COVID-19 lockdown over Kolkata

metropolitan city, India using MLR and ANN models
Biswajit Bera a, Sumana Bhattacharjee b,∗, Nairita Sengupta c, Soumik Saha d
a
Department of Geography, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Ranchi Road, P.O. Purulia Sainik School, 723104, India
b
Department of Geography, Jogesh Chandra Chaudhuri College (University of Calcutta), 30, Prince Anwar Shah Road, Kolkata 700 033, India
c
Department of Geography, Diamond Harbour Women’s University, Sarisha, 743368, India
d
Department of Geography, University of Calcutta 35, Ballygunge Circular Road, Ballygunge, Kolkata-700019

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Kolkata is the third densely populated city of India and Kolkata stands in the World’s 25 most polluted cities
Concentration of PM2.5 along with 10 worse polluted cities in India. The relevant study claims that due to the imposition of lockdown
Multiple linear regression (MLR) during COVID-19 pandemic, the atmospheric pollution level has been significantly reduced over the metropoli-
Artificial neural network (ANN)
tan city Kolkata like other cities of the world. The main objective of this study is to predict the concentration
Accuracy level
of PM2.5 using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models and similarly, to
compare the accuracy level of two models. The concentration of PM2.5 data has been obtained from state pol-
lution control board, Govt. of West Bengal and daily meteorological data have been collected from the world
weather website. The results show that non-linear artificial neural network model is more rational compared
with multiple linear regression model due to its high precision and accuracy level (in respect to RMSE, MAE
and R2 ). In this research artificial neural network (ANN) model exhibited higher accuracy during the training
and testing phases (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and R2 indicate 3.74, 1.14 and
0.91 respectively in training phase and 2.55, 4.32 and 0.69 in testing phase respectively). This model (ANN))
can be applied to predict the concentration of PM2.5 during the execution of urban air quality management
plan.

1. Introduction
The unprecedented massacre has been created through the rapid
transmission and fatal aftermath of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in
the entire world. During the end of 2019, the noxious COVID-19 has
initiated to blowout its acute impact and as a consequence, an alarming
nuisance has been evoked in every sphere of modern human civiliza-
tion (Wang et al., 2020). As the outbreak of this pandemic is rapidly
diffused through physical interaction, social isolation is recommended
as a safest remedial measure to arrest the infectious transmission of
coronavirus (Bera et al., 2020b; Chakraborty et al., 2020, 2021). The
worldwide acceptance of expanded lockdown along with social distanc-
ing proves its inevitability for weakening the terminal effects of COVID-
19 (Huang et al., 2020). In India, the government strictly imposed the
lockdown along with social distancing regulation from 24th March 2020
to 31st May 2020 through four phases to handle COVID-19 pandemic.
Amazingly, the environmental pollution level is evidently reduced dur-
ing the lockdown phase due to the stop of multi-dimensional anthro-
pogenic actions (Dutheil et al., 2020). It has been already reported that
the air pollution standard of the major metropolitan areas of India has
been upgraded during the COVID-19 lockdown as a consequence of the
partial pausing of different economic sectors along with developmental
projects (CPCB, 2020; Sharma et al., 2020). In this milieu, it is stated
that the tremendous threat of air pollution can trigger the probability
of deadly cardiovascular and respiratory diseases (Pope et al., 2004).
Suspended particulate matter (SPM) has an important role in terms of
acute health disorders and environmental degradation as well as the
massive concentration of SPM over an area is highly responsible to in-
fluence the regional climatic change (Haywood and Boucher, 2000).The
microscopic SPM is capable to penetrate into human respiratory system
and this SPM brings hazardous consequences like lethal cardiovascular
and respiratory diseases (Liu et al., 2019; Sahu et al., 2019). Excessive
concentration of PM2.5 in lower atmosphere snatches 3.15 million lives
in every year whereas globally outdoor air pollution causes 3.3million
mortality per year (Lelieveld et al., 2015). It was registered that in 2015,
around 27.1% deaths were caused due to chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease (COPD) and the extreme accumulation of PM2.5 was considered
as a triggering factor for such disaster (Cohen et al., 2017). The fact

∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: sumana.aarohi@gmail.com (S. Bhattacharjee).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2021.100155
Received 15 April 2021; Received in revised form 16 May 2021; Accepted 21 May 2021
2667-0100/© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al.
must be evident that the perilous upshots of PM2.5 and PM10 have the
potentiality to accelerate the rate of human casualties (Qi et al., 2020;
Stafoggia and Bellander, 2020).
In this situation, it is stated that PM2.5 concentration can be predicted
and simulated through different scientific models such as artificial intel-
ligence, chemical transport, linear and nonlinear regression, time series
analysis etc. (Ventura et al., 2019; Sun et al., 2013; Vlachogianni et al.,
2011; Baker and Foley, 2011; Wang et al., 2012). PM2.5 has ≤ 2.5 μm
aerodynamic diameters and it is regarded as the toxic component which
has the competency to increase human morbidity and mortality share
(Walsh, 2014). The more accurate estimation about the concentration
of PM2.5 would be predicted through the combination of few models
such as adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), artificial neu-
ral network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR), general regression
neural network (GRNN). Few scholars claimed that the ANFIS model
has more accuracy (concentration of PM2.5 over Tehran and Iran) in
compared to other models (Mirzaei et al., 2019). Similarly, multiple lin-
ear regression model (MLR) is also a correct and suitable method in
this perspective as this model has successfully projected for the pres-
ence of NOX and PM10 in lower atmosphere over Athens and Helsinki
(Vlachogianni et al., 2011). Dust storm events in the western part of
Iran and PM2.5 concentration in Sanandaj of Iran have been predicted
through MLR model considering the changing pattern of temperature
over the Mediterranean Sea, Damascus Deserts and various meteoro-
logical data respectively (Amanollahi et al., 2015; Ausati and Amanol-
lahi, 2016). Meanwhile, the main purpose of artificial neural network
model is to detect the linear and non-linear relationship between the
independent and dependent variables and this model has already ef-
fectively estimated and simulated PM2.5 concentration over the copper
mines of India. Simultaneously, this model has the efficacy to examine
the air quality warning systems (Fernando et al., 2012). ANN model
has also been applied to estimate the daily existence of PM2.5 in Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil (Ventura et al., 2019). The prediction accuracy of PM2.5
concentrations largely controls public health management. Both multi-
ple linear regression and artificial neural network models have high pre-
cession and accuracy compared with other models for short- and long-
term predictions. Presently, various types of modeling methodologies
(linear and non-linear) have been developed through the rapid progress
of science and technology. Simultaneously, the trend of using neural
networks seems to be growing in different studies by the different re-
searcher worldwide. These classic statistical methods have been now
widely used in different cases and purposes particularly in the differ-
ent branches of environmental sciences like pollution modeling, envi-
ronmental modeling etc. (Perez et al., 2000). ANN model was used to
predict 1-hr PM2.5 concentration in Santiago, Chile. In Kuopio, Finland
and Jaipur, India this model was used for the prediction of maximum
and averaged PM10 concentration (Chelani et al., 2002). A scientific
study was done over Kolkata (India) to describe the inter-dependency
of particulate matters with different climatic variables within the period
2015–2017. After that random forest machine learning algorithm has
been applied to predict the particulate matter concentration (Basu and
Salui, 2021). Another study showed the determination of a long-term
trend of different particulate matters (PM10 & PM2.5 ) over Kolkata
metropolitan city on the basis of historical data and different statistical
and deep learning algorithms (Nath et al., 2021). Ground level concen-
tration of emitted pollutants was also measured by the Gaussian distri-
bution model (Bandyopadhyay, 2010). Gaussian type dispersion models
are widely used by the researcher, policy makers and environment plan-
ners to determine the environmental impact assessment on diverse en-
vironmental projects (Bandyopadhyay, 2010). Here, various Gaussian
models are widely used in India for prediction of different pollutants.
These models are required various input parameters such as meteorol-
ogy, land use land cover, traffic etc. (Aggarwal et al., 2014). Recently,
Gaussian model has been applied over Dhaka, Bangladesh for predic-
tion of carbon monoxide concentration (Ferdous and Ali, 2005). Simi-
larly, a Gaussian dispersion model has been applied over Kolkata city to
2
Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155
predict and assessment of the concentration of one of the most impor-
tant vehicular pollutants (CO) (Majumdar et al., 2010). Shahraiyni and
Sodoudi (2016) analysed 36 different research works which have been
carried out in different parts of the world and related with particulate
matter model forecasting and concentration analysis. In these research
works, around 50 percent study considered artificial neural network
model (ANN) with the help of multilayer perception and feed forward
back propagation network topologies method whereas around 30% stud-
ies are used multiple linear regression model to predict PM10 concentra-
tion in urban areas. And rest studies are used different machine learning
algorithms (Dutta and Jinsart, 2020). MLR and ARIMA have been suc-
cessfully applied over Delhi and Hong-Kong to predict respirable sus-
pended particulate matter (Goyal et al., 2006). ANN model was success-
fully applied over Delhi to predict the NO2 dispersion (Nagendra and
Khare, 2006). Multilayer perception class of ANN model has applied
successfully to predict the concentration of toxic metals and PM10 in
Jaipur city (Chelani et al., 2002). In the present study, multiple linear
regression model and artificial neural network model have been used
for simulating and predicting the PM2.5 concentration as a dependent
variable. Meteorological data such as maximum temperature (°C), min-
imum temperature (°C), relative humidity (RH), air pressure (AP), wind
speed (WS) etc. and gaseous factors (CO, NO2 , O3 , PM10 , SO2 ) have been
considered as independent variables for better result as well as accuracy
of these models. The significant fact is that the accumulation of PM10
and PM2.5 has been curtailed over the 22 cities of India during the lock-
down in 2020 compared with the year 2017(Sharma et al., 2020). Delhi
(the capital of India) has witnessed the surprising reduction of partic-
ulate matter throughout the quarantine period (Rodríguez-Urrego and
Rodríguez-Urrego, 2020). Subsequently, the lockdown period improves
the clarity of the entire environment and intensifies the holistic environ-
mental restoration (Gautam, 2020). Kolkata, the economic growth pole
of eastern India is enlisted among the 10 most polluted cities of India and
25 worst contaminated cities of the world (WHO, 2011).This metropoli-
tan city is brutally victimized due to the catastrophic impact of COVID-
19 as almost 1261 people have lost their lives because of the menace of
coronavirus as of 29thAugust 2020 (Health and Family Welfare Depart-
ment, Govt. of West Bengal, 2020).The previous research works have de-
picted that if the existence of lethal pollutants is amplified by 10 𝜇gm−3
over the troposphere, then it may markedly upsurge the daily propor-
tion of symptomatic novel coronavirus positive cases (Mehmood et al.,
2020).The concentration of PM2.5 over Kolkata metropolitan city has
been notably dwindled about 17.5% in 2020 compared with the pre-
ceding years due to the closure of transport movement and economic
actions throughout the lockdown period (Bera et al., 2020a). PM is now
renowned as carcinogenic to humans (IARC 2013) and it is also con-
sidered as one of the leading factors of cardiovascular diseases such as
stroke, asthma, ischemic heart disease, bronchitis, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD) and estimated reduction of life expectancy
(WHO 2013).Such study is carried out by high accuracy models in short-
term perspective. Long-term approach is used to find out the effects of
permanent disclosure (at least ten years), while short term approach is
applied to determine the severe health effects and risks, specially linked
with severe air pollution or particularly of PM2.5 .The aim of this research
was therefore to fill up an existing gap of knowledge on the short-term
effect of PM2.5 on the health of the residents of Kolkata, one of the
biggest agglomerations in the region of North Eastern India and to com-
pare the results with other cities worldwide. The lockdown process was
remarkably reduced the pollution rate and concentration over Kolkata
and Howrah municipality area and the AQI (air quality index) had im-
proved from poor to good category. And after analysis, it has been ob-
served that the PM10 & PM2.5 are the primary sources of pollution here
(Sarkar et al., 2020). A recent study has been done to analyze the spa-
tiotemporal variation of PM10 and NO2 over three megacities of India
(Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata). It has been observed that a significant
reduction of pollutants has been registered over the megacities during
lockdown period and the concentration level of PM10 has significantly
B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155

Fig. 1. The structure of artificial neural net-

work (ANN) model.

Table 1 2. Method and materials

The coefficients with VIF and tolerance values of the independent variables.

Model Predictor Unstandardized coefficients t VIF Tolerance 2.1. Data source and data acquisition

Estimate SE
The spatiotemporal concentration data of PM2.5 has been collected
Intercept −171.73 260.67 −0.65 from State Pollution Control Board, Govt. of West Bengal from24th
PM10 0.35 0.05 6.01 3.13 0.32
March to 31st May 2020 (lockdown period). The five automatic sta-
CO 41.50 10.77 3.85 3.99 0.25
NO2 0.17 0.31 0.56 4.30 0.23 tions (pollution measurement) like IACS Jadavpur, Fort William, Vic-
O3 0.00 0.06 0.13 2.22 0.45 toria Memorial, RabindraSarobarand Rabindrabharati University have
SO2 0.73 0.53 1.36 3.25 0.30 been considered to maintain the spatial integrity along with augmenta-
Max temperature −0.03 0.42 −0.07 6.30 0.15 tion of data accuracy. The existence of PM2.5 in the troposphere has been
Min temperature −0.39 0.24 −1.63 1.51 0.66
obtained from these stations. Other important parameters such as PM10 ,
Wind speed −0.04 0.09 −0.46 2.40 0.41
Relative humidity −0.22 0.08 −2.56 7.71 0.13 CO, NO2 , SO2 , and O3 have been brought from the same monitoring sta-
Air pressure 0.17 0.25 0.67 2.93 0.34 tions in a daily basis and averaged it. Similarly, the daily meteorological
data has been taken from the world weather website (World Weather
Online, 2020). The scatter plot and correlation matrix have been de-
signed by R Studio programming software.

2.2. Multiple linear regression model (MLR)

dropped over Kolkata metropolitan area mainly due to imposed of lock-
down (Ganguly et al., 2021). But the study has some limitations because
the whole study has been conducted within a short time frame and in
India, the air pollution parameters are not routinely updated or moni-
tored. Different climatic parameters are the main indicator of this study.
These are NO2 , O3 , SO2 , maximum temperature, minimum tempera-
ture, wind speed, relative humidity etc. These parameters are selected
on the basis of previous important studies (Amanollahi and Ausati, 2019;
Mirzaei et al., 2019). This paper focuses on the simulation as well as pre-
diction of PM2.5 concentration with a perfect accuracy level to portray
more relevant and vivid scenario in terms of the contemporary context.
The main objectives of this paper are (i) to predict and simulate of PM2.5
concentration (24th March to 31st May 2020) through the application
of linear and non-linear models and (ii) to compare the accuracy level
of two models by obtaining the model validation values and also detects
the factors which have the maximum association with PM2.5 concentra-
tion during the lockdown phase over Kolkata metropolitan city.
The regression analysis is frequently used for prediction and the ob-
jective of this model is to construct a mathematical model that can be
utilized for predict the dependent variable based on the inputs of in-
dependent variables or the predictors (Juneng et al., 2011). MLR model
has been used to obtain the significant relationship as well as correlation
between the dependent variable and the predictors or the independent
variables (Table 1). Here, around 75% data has been used for training
and 25% data has been applied for testing of this model. Statistical Pack-
age for Social Science (SPSS version 25) has been used here to run the
model accurately.
Multiple Linear Regression model follows:
Y = B0 + B1 X1 + B2 X2 + … … ..𝐵𝑛 𝑋𝑛 + 𝜀 (1)
Where B0 refers for Y-intercept; whereas X1, X2…..Xn stands for the in-
dependent variables and B1 , B2…Bn are the coefficients of independent
variables and 𝜀 refers for the error term; and Y is the dependent variable.

3
B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155

Table 2 Hyperbolic tangent follows,

The Importance of predictors depicting by artificial neural net-
𝑒𝑥 − 𝑒−𝑥
work. 𝑓 (𝑥) = tanh (𝑥) = (3)
𝑒𝑥 + 𝑒−𝑥
Predictors Importance Normalized Importance The derivative of loss function is designed by the gradient descent
PM10 .28 100.0% method which is associated to back propagation. The following equa-
CO .19 66.5% tions are maintained the algorithm of back propagation,
NO2 .11 40.4% The square error function is
O3 .01 5.2%
SO2 .03 10.4% 𝐸 = 𝐿(𝑡, 𝑦) (4)
Maximum temperature .08 28.4%
Minimum temperature .04 15.7% Where, E is the loss of the output y and target value t. t denotes output
Wind speed .02 7.6% of training samples. y is the output of the neuron.
Relative humidity .07 27.3% For each neuron j and output𝑜𝑗 is defined as
Air pressure .13 46.1% ( 𝑛 )
( ) ∑
𝑜𝑗 = 𝜑 𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑗 = 𝜑 𝑤𝑘𝑗 𝑜𝑘 (5)
𝑘=1

Where, the activation function 𝜑 is non-linear. The main activation func-

tion is logistic function which is followed as,
1
𝜑 (𝑧 ) = (6)
1 + 𝑒−𝑧
The input (𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑗 ) to a neuron is the weighted sum of outputs 𝑜𝑘 of
previous neuron.

2.4. Model validation

Any scientific prediction models require validation for determina-

Fig. 2. The importance of independent variables in terms of the prediction of
PM2.5 accumulation.
Co-linearity happens when two models have a linear relationship.
It creates the individual contribution of each variable and introduces
redundancy. Similarly, it makes the model excessively sensitive to the
data. Here, multi-collinearity problem is varied by Variance of Inflation
Factor (VIF) and the value of VIF while it is less than 10 which indicates
that there is no multi-collinearity problem and the regression is fit.
The VIF follows
1 shortage and completed with short time frame.
VIF =
1 − 𝑅2𝐽
Where, VIF stands for variance inflation factor, R2 mean multiple coef-
ficient of determination in a regression.
tion of its performance over the dependent variable. There are three
different methods which have been used here for the validation of the
models. These are the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute
error (MAE) and Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R). Mean absolute er-
ror (MAE) and Root mean square error (RMSE) show the average error
of the models. Both techniques are ranged from 0 to oo and both are the
negative oriented values or scores. So the lower value of RMSE and MAE
shows better results in the model prediction. Whereas, R2 is the statisti-
cal parameter which has been used for the validation of the model and
it ranges from 0 to 1. The R2 value near 1 specifies the strong associ-
ation between variables and contraries the lowest association between
variables. Standardized coefficient and the changing pattern of R2 are
used to determine the importance of a factor in any regression model.
Here, on the basis of these values the importance of these predictors
is determined. The models are not highly fitted here due to some data
(2) These equations are given below,
√
√ 2
√1 ∑ 𝑁
( )
RMSE = √ 𝑦 − 𝑦̄𝑖 (7)
𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑖

Where,(𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̄𝑖 ) signifies differences and N denotes sample size.

2.3. Artificial neural network (ANN) model
𝑁
1 ∑|
MAE = 𝑦 − 𝑦̄𝑖 || (8)
Artificial neural network (ANN) model was primarily suggested by 𝑁 𝑖=1 | 𝑖
McCulloch and Pitts who were enthused by neural network systems and
|𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̄𝑖 | shows the absolute errors, N points out the number of errors.
the brain of living organisms. The artificial neural network model is ( )
∑(
a basically statistical and mathematical based complex interconnection 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̄ ) 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̄
𝑅= √ (9)
which characterizes the biological neurons that are fundamental for the ∑( ( )
𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̄ )2 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦̄ 2
human brain processes. The multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is universally
applied in ANN model. ANN has three diverse layers such as -i) input Where,𝑥𝑖 denotes values of x variable in the sample. 𝑥̄ specifies mean
layer in which the data are distributed over the network, ii) hidden layer value of x variable. 𝑦𝑖 stands for the value of y variable and 𝑦̄ means the
where the data are processed and finally iii) the output layer where the value of y variable.
results for certain inputs are taken out (Amanollahi and Ausati, 2019)
(Fig. 1). The ANN model is designed through SPSS (v25) software. There 3. Result and discussion
are more than one hidden layer and a key parameter. The ANN model
has been broadly and commonly used for air quality estimation, simula- 3.1. Prediction of PM2.5 accumulation over Kolkata through multiple
tion and prediction purposes (Alimissis et al., 2018). Here, around 75% linear regression model
data is used for training and 25% data has been applied for testing of
the model. In ANN, a hyperbolic tangent or a sigmoid function has been In the current study, the result showed that multiple linear regression
considered for mathematical expediency. (MLR) is the high-quality model which is used here for the prediction

4
B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155

Fig. 3. The comparative analysis of MLR and ANN model regarding PM2.5 concentration over Kolkata during lockdown period. a. observed and simulated values
using MLR b. observed and predicted values using MLR c. observed and simulated values using ANN d. observed and predicted values using ANN.

Fig. 4. Scatter diagram displaying the trend of correlation of different variables with PM2.5 (with 95% confidence level).

of the PM2.5 concentration over Kolkata during the lockdown. The coef-
ficients of different corresponding predictors are mentioned in Table 1.
The result of different validation methods in training phase of MLR mod-
elshows the model validation and the summarized result of this section
is presented here, RMSE = 3.77, MAE = 1.69 and R2 = 0.833. On the
other side, the result of testing phase section is stated here, RMSE = 3.33,
MAE = 5.19 and R2 = 0.0.510. A better R2 result for prediction and
compared to the regression model usually might be due to the uneven
distribution of sample data (Zhao et al., 2018).
3.2. Outcomes of artificial neural network model in the prediction of PM2.5
accumulation over Kolkata
Artificial neural network model is another type of model which is
used here for simulation and prediction of PM2.5 concentration over

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B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al. Environmental Challenges 4 (2021) 100155

Table 3
Correlation matrix (Pearson’s method) showing the association between variables.

Independent variables PM2.5 PM10 CO(mg/m3) NO2(μg/m3) O3(μg/m3) SO2(μg/m3) Max Min Wind Relative Air Pres-
(μg/m3) (μg/m3) Temp(C) Temp(C) speed(km/h) humidity sure(mb)

PM2.5 (μg/m3) 1 0.84 0.83 0.76 0.55 0.73 0.47 0.05 −0.26 −0.66 0.41
PM10 (μg/m3) 0.84 1 0.76 0.60 0.39 0.62 0.29 0.10 −0.02 −0.42 0.22
CO(mg/m3) 0.83 0.76 1 0.73 0.55 0.58 0.25 0.06 −0.15 −0.44 0.19
NO2 (μg/m3) 0.76 0.60 0.73 1 0.60 0.73 0.24 −0.15 −0.29 −0.49 0.40
O3 (μg/m3) 0.55 0.39 0.55 0.60 1 0.61 0.37 0.05 −0.16 −0.48 0.14
SO2 (μg/m3) 0.73 0.62 0.58 0.73 0.61 1 0.40 −0.05 −0.17 −0.53 0.39
Max. Temp. (◦ C) 0.47 0.29 0.25 0.24 0.37 0.40 1 0.44 −0.29 −0.87 0.43
Min. Temp. (◦ C) 0.05 0.10 0.06 −0.15 0.05 −0.05 0.44 1 −0.08 −0.29 0.10
Wind speed (km/h) −0.26 −0.02 −0.15 −0.029 −0.16 −0.17 −0.29 −0.08 1 0.45 −0.69
Relative humidity (%) −0.66 −0.42 −0.44 −0.49 −0.48 −0.53 −0.87 −0.29 0.45 1 −0.55
Air Pressure (mb) 0.41 0.22 0.19 0.40 0.14 0.39 0.43 0.10 −0.69 −0.55 1

Table 4
Tropical and sub-tropical high pollution tolerant plant species.

Scientific name of plants Local name of plants Pollutants absorption by the plants

Psidium guajava Guava SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10

Ficus bengalensis Banyan CO, NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Azadirachta indica Neem CO, SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10 , NO2
Hibiscus rosa-sinensis China rose PM10 , PM2.5 , SO2
Neolamarkia cadamba Kadam/ Burflower tree CO, NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Mangifera indica Mango CO, NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Eucalyptus globus Southern blue gum CO, NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Ficus religiosa Peepul CO, NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Bougainvillea spectabilis Bougainvillea PM2.5 , PM10 , NO2 , SO2 , CO
Ricinus communis Castor oil plant CO, NO2
Cascabela thevetia Yellow oleander NO2 , SO2 , PM2.5 , PM10
Cassia siamea Cassod tree SO2 , NO2 , CO

with high importance value whereas O3 is the least effectual predictor

over PM2.5 with a low level of importance value (Table 2; Fig. 2).

3.3. Comparative study in predicting PM2.5 concentration over Kolkata

In this research two different machine learning algorithms have been

Fig. 5. The correlation among the variables affecting the prediction of PM2.5
accumulation in lower atmosphere.
Kolkata (Fig. 1). In this case, an input layer, hidden layer and out-
put layer have been incorporated for prediction. The ANN model has
widely applied by the researchers for quantification and air quality pre-
diction (Suleiman et al., 2019; Radojevic et al., 2019). The concise re-
sult of the applied ANN model in training stage has represented such as
RMSE = 3.74, MAE = 1.14 and R2 = 0.916 while the result of testing
phase section highlights the RMSE = 2.55, MAE = 4.32 and R2 = 0.697.
It has been noticed that PM10 is the most efficient predictor of PM2.5
applied for prediction of PM2.5 concentration during the lockdown pe-
riod (24th March to 31st May). From the comparison between the results
of the two models it has been represented that the ANN model has better
prediction precision and simulation result due to its lower RMSE (Fig. 3).
Here, the average concentration of PM2.5 of each day during the study
period has been calculated. The RMSE and MAE value of ANN model is
3.74 and 1.14 respectively in the training phase. Whereas the RMSE and
MAE value of MLR model is 3.77 and 1.69 respectively in training phase.
In the case of testing phase the RMSE and MAE value is 2.55 and 4.32
respectively in the case of ANN model whereas RMSE and MAE value
is 3.33 and 5.19 respectively in the case of MLR model. The prediction
ofPM2.5 concentration is a complicated issue because it can be easily
affected by different factors or the predictors. The correlation (based
on Pearson’s method) matrix shows the degree of association between
variables (Table 3; Fig. 4). It has been exhibited that PM10 , CO, SO2
and NO2 are highly correlated with PM2.5 that means the air pollution
level mostly controls on the concentration of PM2.5 (Table 2; Table 3)
whereas the meteorological factors (wind speed and relative humidity)
is negatively inter-related with the concentration of PM2.5 (Fig. 5). This
scenario showed that rainfall and high wind speed are competent to get
back the atmospheric purity and directly diminish the PM2.5 concen-
tration over the lower atmosphere. Comparatively, the better results of
these models can be derived during the cold season compared with the
warm season (Mirzaei et al., 2019). It is supposed that the temperature
inversion during the cold season may take a vital role because this event
restricts the suspended particulate matters in the lower part of the at-
mosphere and subsequently decreases the accuracy level of the models.

6
B. Bera, S. Bhattacharjee, N. Sengupta et al.
4. Conclusions
As Kolkata metropolitan city is labelled as one of the worst polluted
cities in India as well as in the world, the future projection of its atmo-
spheric fatal pollutants would be beneficial for the human health safety
as well as environmental cleanliness. This research highlights the com-
parison between the precision of linear model i.e., MLR and nonlinear
model i.e., ANN in the aspect of prediction the occurrence of PM2.5 in
Kolkata amidst the lockdown period. The entire study signifies that the
nonlinear model has exhibited the more precise prediction of PM2.5 ac-
cumulation over this metropolitan city compared with the linear model.
The comparative analysis between the two above-mentioned models fo-
cuses that the ANN model has attained the maximum perfection in case
of training and testing stages for predicting the existence of PM2.5. The
most appropriate model is ANN and it is principally composed of three
distinct layers. So, it must be concluded that Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) has designed to predict the concentration of PM2.5 over the worst
polluted city Kolkata amid the lockdown session compared with Multi-
ple Linear Regression (MLR) model. This artificial neural network model
is very rational model which can apply to estimate the spatiotemporal
concentration of PM2.5 over any city’s of the world during the imple-
mentation of long term environmental management plan.
Subsequently, the application of lockdown system is not a perma-
nent solution to combat the threat of pollution. So, a substitute sustain-
able management method should be applied to maintain the cleanliness
of environment. Relevant applied researches focused that plants are the
primary receiver of various types of air pollutants and perform as a mas-
sive sink (Kaur and Nagpal 2017; Letter and Jager, 2020). A contempo-
rary study revealed that the important plant species have high absorp-
tion capability for definite pollutants (Salih et al., 2017; Table 4). Intro-
duction of air pollution-tolerant species in urban vacant spaces is highly
necessary to improve the environmental health along with ecosystem
values of urban life (Bamniya et al., 2011). The expansion of green en-
circle by plantation of tolerant species can definitely reduce the high air
pollution to a certain level.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
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