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scenarioDNA | global cultural foresight

Ghost Trends 2020


MAKING SENSE OF AN ELUSIVE WORLD

Photo: Facades by Zacharie Gaudrillot-Roy scenarioDNA - global cultural foresight


A TIME FOR TRANSFORMATION

Change happens fast -- leaving


us seemingly caught unaware.
We talk about planning for black
swans. Yet, the Covid19
pandemic is demonstrating that
directional signals were always
there as ghosts to heed and help
us get ahead of a crisis. We had
the language in place for
innovation. Now the
sustainability of our innovations
is being tested. This is a call to
adaptability. We can plan our
way forward from this moment in
history. Emerging in a better
place requires bringing abstract
thought into focus.
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Illustration: Milo Winter, Aesop's fable, The North Wind and the Sun
THE ORIGIN OF GHOSTS IN LANGUAGE

Ghosts have metaphorically haunted


us for centuries. In fact, the Hebrew
origin of the word ghost or spirit is
“ruach.” Its meaning is the power
encountered in the breath and wind.
But the more real ghosts become for
us today, the less we choose to see
them. When they make their
appearance as empty storefronts, we
hurry by. When we name them as
trends, such as ghost kitchens, we
embrace them. Never recognizing
that we are blindly embracing
absence. Never questioning what
that loss might mean in the future...

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EXPRESSING OUR FEARS

Coronavirus has illuminated


the source of these fears for
us. “We turn out to be so
vulnerable in the United
States. Not only because we
have no safety net, or very
little of one, but because we
have no emergency
preparedness, no social
infrastructure,” explains
author/activist Barbara
Ehrenreich, in an interview
with Jia Tolentino, The New
Yorker, March 21, 2020.

“I was not feeling optimistic about the


future of mankind. I felt the world was
on its way to ending.”
Screenwriter David Lowery on the trigger
behind why he created A Ghost Story,
The Guardian, August 9, 2017
Image: A Ghost Story (2017)
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MOVING BEYOND PURGATORY

“Just when millennial and Gen Z


voters have the most power to
choose their leaders, many feel
no one is speaking to them. So
many of them don’t vote. So
many candidates continue not to
speak to them. So they get still
more disillusioned,” writes Maggie
Astor, “Young Voters Know What
They Want. But They Don’t See
Anyone Offering It,” New York
Times, March 20, 2020. “Their
open frustration is really
exhaustion.”
“Just listen carefully to what I have to tell
you...I could tell you stories that would
slice through your soul, freeze your blood.”
The Ghost in Shakespeare’s Hamlet thrilled and
challenged its original Renaissance audience
posits an online class at Harvard University.

Image: Hamlet, Horatio, Marcellus and the Ghost


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GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF GHOST TRENDS

Advancing technology has buoyed ghost


trends through insular top-down practices and
rigid go-to-market processes. In a March 27,
2020, Fast Company article, advisor Navi
Radjou emphasizes that “US firms need a
frugal and agile mind-set to not only survive
during the current health crisis but also to
innovate for success in the recessionary
post-coronavirus word.” AI in IoT Devices will
exceed $105B in North America by 2025. Will
we be investing in the right way?

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LINGUISTIC SNAPSHOT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

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JOHARI WINDOW MODEL
Our tendency towards quick short-term
wins rather than real change in policy has us
under-prepared for current shifts. Our
actions must look beyond the arenas and
consider more seriously the blindspots and
unknowns that can undermine innovation.

overdevelopment product adaptability

Arena Blind Spot

Facade Unknown

insular r&d capacity for extremes

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SPECULATIVE FUTURES
The framework of design foresight must
leverage system dynamics to develop a
clear view of changing ritual and purpose
future scenarios as externalities change.

data signal ritual purpose


future future

more known less known

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CULTURE MAPPING MODEL
Culture Mapping allows us to apply foresight within a
system view of cultural change. When we begin to
model emerging traits, we can begin to see how the
dynamics of change are working and where we are
stuck. The goal is to make creative risks more viable
earlier and to see the downsides of scaling and
automating our ideas too quickly.

more known
trends emerge as trends emerge as
policy and regulation social currency

residual dominant

disruptive emergent
trends emerge as trends emerge as new
dissent and renewal technique and ritual

less known
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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost town
economics
Expectations Are That We Will Mostly Build
Less Functional Cities.

“The sad thing is that we’re


going to develop more urban
area in the next 100 years
than currently exists on
Earth...most of it disorderly.”
---Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Romer of New
York University, Wade Shepard,”Should we build
cities from scratch?” The Guardian, July 10, 2019

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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost town
economics
The lack of planning insight and purpose
leads to ghost towns. Ghost towns have
historically been created when a built city is
no longer economically viable and
abandoned. We only find such ghost towns
alluring when they are quaint and romantic.
We think very differently about ghost towns
when they are in our backyard. As they
begin to build new cities, countries have
begun to inadvertently address their ghost
town situations.

Future negative Future positive


We wait to realize the
Second chances allow
limits of a development
developments to re-engage
once it has been pushed
purpose and synchronicity
to failure of an ill-designed
with human behavior in mind.
purpose.

PHOTO: China’s Ghost Cities


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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost town economics

Ghost hotels is a shadow economy


quickly tested by the pandemic

Abandoned housing in Ghost apartments or “buy to leave


India’s Wish Town homes” are under revised policy scrutiny

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RESIDUAL SIGNIFIERS

ghost town economics

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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost gigs
The Workers Of The Gig Economy Are
Foundational, But Invisible.

“Whenever I have an employer


willing to look at me as a whole
person and to give me their
time...it’s just shocking and it
makes me feel like I’m a part of
the world.”
---—Hilary Leichter of “Hilary Leichter wrote the origin
myth of the gig economy,” Shanti Escalante, Interview
Magazine, March 20, 2020

IMAGE NY Times scenarioDNA - global cultural foresight 15


RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost gigs
“The future of work is focused heavily on the
gig economy and the workers who power it,”
writes Arran Stewart in the article “What The
Job Market Can Learn From The Coronavirus
Crisis,” Nasdaq.com, March 24, 2020. “These
people cannot continue to be treated as
“independent contract workers” when they’re
integral to the function of these companies. The
future of work can not be built on such shaky
ground that there is little to no support for
these integral workers during this crisis.”

Future negative Future positive


Inability of or lack of Companies take on a level of
government-enforced safety corporate social responsibility
nets and legislation to protect for gig workers, and embrace
gig workers in times of crisis. the “trend” of flexibility.

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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost gigs

Famous for her Instagram captions —


written by a ghost writer.

voice assistant tech is based on high-volume


an on-demand invisible labor force work thousands of miles away

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RESIDUAL SIGNIFIERS

ghost gigs

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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost populi
There is an inability for policymakers
to keep up.

“Software constrains
behaviour with an efficiency
that no law can match. It's all
changing fast; technology is
literally creating the world we
all live in.”
---—Bruce Schneier, “We must bridge the gap
between technology and policymaking. Our future
depends on it,” WEforum.org, November 12, 2019.

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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost populi
“Technologists and policymakers largely inhabit
two separate worlds,” writes Bruce Schneier in
the article “We must bridge the gap between
technology and policymaking. Our future
depends on it,” WEforum.org, Nov 12, 2019. “It's
an old problem, one that the British scientist CP
Snow identified in a 1959 essay entitled The Two
Cultures. He called them sciences and
humanities, and pointed to the split as a major
hindrance to solving the world’s problems. The
essay was influential - but 60 years later, nothing
has changed.” We need to scale up the process
that creates public-interest technologists.

Future negative Future positive


There won’t be enough We begin to make sense of
technologists who want to and mitigate the extent to
get involved in public which our lives are controlled
policy. We’ll lower by powerful digital systems.
standards.
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RESIDUAL TRENDS

ghost populi

Rise in absentee ballots


pushes the call for online voting

Untraceable ghost guns


Right to be forgotten in conflict

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RESIDUAL SIGNIFIERS

ghost populi

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DOMINANT TRENDS

ghost worlds
We are all feeling a little disconnected.

"There's definitely a connection


between a sense of autonomy that
plays into feelings of loneliness...A
sense of mastery over your life is
critical at all ages of adulthood."
Louise Hawkley, a senior scientist at the nonpartisan
research organization NORC at the University of
Chicago, “All the lonely people: Why more of us will
feel disconnected than ever before,” Sandee LaMotte,
CNN, December 10, 2019

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DOMINANT TRENDS

ghost worlds
“Ghosting became a cultural buzzword in
2018,” writes Marisa Bate in “Ghosting’s not
just a cowardly dating trend – it’s haunting us
everywhere,” Marie Claire, October 29, 2019.
“Used to describe someone leaving a
relationship without informing the other
person, simply ‘disappearing’, it spoke to the
fleeting and temporary experience of modern,
digital life...We’re seeing the same scenario in
other settings. We’ve committed to
something – a job, a friendship, some sort of
social or cultural contract or exchange, and,
suddenly, as if in a puff of smoke, the other
end of the deal is missing.”

Future negative Future positive


The path of least resistance We learn to connect by resetting
continues us on a track of an expectation of
denial and increases PTSD. communication and investment
in relationships.

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DOMINANT TRENDS

ghost worlds

Awkwardness avoidance
continues to present as ghosting

Finding faith in new Digital experiences do not


spaces and digital arenas disengage us from emotion

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DOMINANT SIGNIFIERS

ghost worlds

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DOMINANT TRENDS

phantom
physicians
We are shoe horning technology into chaotic
siloed practices.

“Increasing collaborations could


break down the traditional health
care silos — payer, provider,
pharmacy, medical devices — and
may signal the beginning of
broader health care disruption.”
Scott D. Anthony and Michael Putz, “How Leaders
Delude Themselves About Disruption,” MIT Sloan
Management Review, March 10, 2020

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DOMINANT TRENDS

phantom
physicians
“Rather than treating today’s inefficient,
hodgepodge system as a baseline for the future
of primary care, we should instead ask two
questions: How many doctors would we really
need if best, evidence-based practices were
widely adopted? And how can we encourage
adoption of those practices?” write Christopher
Kerns and Dave Willis in “The Problem with U.S.
Health Care Isn’t a Shortage of Doctors,” Harvard
Business Review, March 16, 2020. “The real
shortage is one of the courage to disrupt the way
things have been done for decades.”

Future negative Future positive


For wide reasons, we lose the Fast-growing telehealth is able
vital human physician/patient to democratize fluid access to
connection that is critical to health care, mitigating concerns
successful health care. about primary care shortage.

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DOMINANT TRENDS

phantom physicians

Emergency room video


consults via Teletriage
Map uses smart thermometers to detect COVID-19 surges.

Conversa Users text "VIRUS" to 839-73, a


symptom-checking messaging bot.
in-home care is the future of telehealth

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DOMINANT SIGNIFIERS

phantom physicians

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DOMINANT TRENDS

paradise lost
The perfect moment for a
philosophical pause.

“Will everybody rush to


recover lost turnover at all
costs? Or will we all think
and learn – how we can
improve the quality of
worldwide tourism and cut
down excessive travelling?”
Francesca Perkhofer, hotelier, “Nothing less than a
catastrophe': Venice left high and dry by coronavirus,”
John Brunton, The Guardian, March 17, 2020

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DOMINANT TRENDS

paradise lost
“As more and more travelers journey
across the world, it is becoming clear
that rejecting the culture of mass tourism
and embracing individual experiences in
conjunction with local communities
uniquely provides for a sustainable and
enjoyable future of tourism,” writes Andy
Wang, “From Tourists to Travelers,”
Harvard Political Review, March 15,
2020. “Travel provides opportunities for
individuals to immerse themselves in
another culture, an adventure that cannot
be replicated at home.”

Future negative Future positive


Improper travel With reduced carbon
management leads to a emissions and genuine
degradation of local culture, local interaction, the
contributing to a decrease immersive stays of
in livability for locals. youth travel become the
goal for all travelers.

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DOMINANT TRENDS

paradise lost

Get Lost trips are intended to test our


mettle -- under the safety of a watchful eye.

Ghost Refuge Competition invites young architects to


design refuges among the ruins of Italy’s Craco. Will we Following dead train tracks around Israel
get lost in the purgatory or emerge better for it? brings a forgotten Middle East back to life.

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DOMINANT SIGNIFIERS

paradise lost

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EMERGENT TRENDS

ghost food
systems
Ghost kitchens are a bet that the future
of food lies in delivery.

“Whether your strategy is to


disengage or to engage, you
need to have a strategy for
food delivery…And it needs
to be thought through
because it’s a significant
player in the landscape and
it’s not going away.”
Chef Eric Greenspan, “Guide to Ghost Kitchens
(2020): All You Need to Know,”
RoamingHunger.com, February 3, 2020

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EMERGENT TRENDS

ghost food
systems
“Delivery-only kitchens are not new,” writes
Jonah Engel Bromwich, “Farm to Table? More
Like Ghost Kitchen to Sofa,” NYTimes,
December 24, 2019. “David Chang was a key
investor in Maple (which shut down in 2017). He
believes that eventually a delivery business will
build out, or combine with, a ghost kitchen
concept (what DoorDash has done in Redwood
City, at scale) and change the world. The
creators of ghost kitchens think the concept
represents optimization of an already-efficient
system. Cheng is more ‘concerned from a
restaurant operator’s perspective. Is it really
freedom or is it more servitude?’”

Future negative Future positive


Venture capitalists see Ghost kitchens allow for
monetary potential, and incremental testing of food
become the driving catalyst for concepts, allowing chefs to
what is produced. experiment and take risks.
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EMERGENT TRENDS

ghost food systems

Food delivery kitchens


in empty mall spaces with
plenty of parking for
delivery vehicles.

Off-premise platform
Ghost kitchens are
turns other restaurants
fueled by delivery apps.
into ghost kitchens

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EMERGENT SIGNIFIERS

ghost food systems

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EMERGENT TRENDS

autonomous
living patterns
New metrics will be brought into the
autonomous vocabulary.

“There will be sensors that pick


up on GeoPose (geographic
positioning). Ultimately, we
won’t even need traffic lights.
How many times have you been
stopped at a red light at night
and no one is coming?”
XR enthusiast and author Stephen Black, “GeoPose
Evangelist” Talks Spatial Computing and Autonomous
Vehicles,” Jon Jaehnig, ARpost, March 24, 2020

IMAGE: AR Post

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EMERGENT TRENDS

autonomous
living patterns
“The COVID-19 pandemic accelerates an
automated future that’s already on its way,”
writes Bastiane Huang, “Will this crisis help
set autonomous AI on the right course?”
VentureBeat, March 26, 2020. “It serves as a
wake-up call…focus on deploying real-world
solutions that can run 24 hours a day with
minimum human intervention and deliver
true value to users…Suddenly, autonomous
machines need to be better than just proof
of concept. They must be robust enough to
work independently across various real-life
situations.”

Future negative Future positive


Real life is unpredictable, Autonomous vehicles are already
and a built-in prejudice being talked about for food and
already exists about allowing medication delivery, as well as
the machine control. bringing mobility to seniors.

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EMERGENT TRENDS
US Navy is prototyping a fleet
autonomous living patterns of networked drone boats.

COVID-19 pandemic prompts a larger look at the meaning


of ghost flights and the rules that undergird the operation of Self-driving AI systems to
the air transport system through the lens of climate retrofit existing vehicles are
protection. It will impact the future of air travel as a whole. expected to launch this year.

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EMERGENT SIGNIFIERS

autonomous living patterns

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EMERGENT TRENDS

humanless
spaces
What we learn in cashierless has
broad industry applicability.

“[Cashierless]
fundamentally tackles a
problem of how do you get
convenience in physical
locations, especially when
people are hard-pressed
for time.”
Amazon VP Dilip Kumar, “Amazon is selling
its cashierless technology to other vendors,”
Jason Del Rey, Vox, Mar 11, 2020

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EMERGENT TRENDS

humanless
spaces
“Much like Amazon Go, 7-Eleven's cashierless
store is powered by an app, which
distinguishes one customer's purchases from
another's in the store through a mix of
algorithms and predictive technology,” writes
Caroline Jansen, “What 7-Eleven's cashierless
ambitions signal about the future of
convenience stores,” Retail Dive, February 19,
2020. “Competition in the space is heating up,
and for good reason. Nearly half of consumers
using unattended retail (including vending
machines, cashierless stores and self-serve
kiosks) do so because it's faster than
traditional retail.”

Future negative Future positive


Banning cashless stores puts Removing as much friction and
into question the viability of speeding the buying process
models. Is lack of human for consumers is a foundational
presence what we want? imperative.
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EMERGENT TRENDS

humanless spaces

Amazon offers its


cashierless tech, Just Walk
Out, to other retailers.

Upon validation artificial


100,000 smart home devices now support
intelligence (AI) learns from
Alexa. Filling the need for better hygiene,
itself, making a model smarter
the Kohler Numi toilet is one.
and smarter.

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EMERGENT SIGNIFIERS

humanless spaces

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

invisible
indicators
Collaboration gets real and immediate.

“We put out a call to a bunch of


investigators and basically said:
‘Hey, let’s talk.’ The idea is to
coordinate research and make
sure results are comparable.”
Scientists Dave O’Connor and Tom Friedrich describing
their Slack workspace the Wu-han Clan in “‘A completely
new culture of doing research.’ Coronavirus outbreak
changes how scientists communicate,” Kai
Kupferschmidt, Science Magazine, February 26, 2020

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

invisible
indicators
“The threat of COVID-19 is bringing out the
best in both science and politics,” writes Daniel
Sarewitz, “What the Pandemic Is Telling Us
About Science, Politics, and Values,” Slate,
March 24, 2020. “The lesson is not that we
need to always listen to experts and that
science will show us the way to go. It’s that a
shared sense of our commonality as humans
is the essential condition of a society that has
the tools to deal with its problems. Common
values, not expert assertions about facts, are
what make science good enough to act on.”

Future negative Future positive


We do not gain understanding Basic scientific inferences are
of how facts evolve as new playing out that allow both
information enters. We stand scientists and the public to
on circumstance. assess what’s happening.

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

invisible indicators

Oceans are haunted by ghost nets


left or lost at sea by fisherman.

Rising sea levels are creating Scientists have found "ghost particles" coming from inside the
graveyards of disappearing forests. Earth. Radioactive decay produces the invisible “geoneutrinos.”

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DISRUPTIVE SIGNIFIERS

invisible indicators

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

shadow
currencies
The real goal is frictionless virtual
transactions wherever needed.

“People use Venmo right


now. They can move their
money around. More
important is blockchain
technology. Bitcoin or any of
these other coins are just a
manifestation of a
technology.”
Dan Wiener, the chairman of Adviser
Investments, “You’ll see a central bank
cryptocurrency before you’ll see a bitcoin ETF,”
Lizzy Gurdus, CNBC.com, March 7, 2020

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

shadow
currencies
“The US has two bills in Congress and one in
the House, one in the Senate that talk about
digitizing the dollar and the digitization not only
just at the institutional level,” Samuel Haig cites
Lukka Library creator Roger Brown in
“Cryptocurrency Accounting Firm Launches
Library of Legal and Tax Advice,”
Cointelegraph, March 25, 2020. “…but they're
also going to creating a digital wallet for each
U.S. person to, in effect, no longer have to
deal with currency. And that's incredibly
important.”

Future negative Future positive


As the regulators and Digital assets allow us more
governments catch up we flexibility and afford the
need to anticipate how this contactless payments we
becomes more complicated. need right now.

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

shadow currencies

An unknown mining pool has assumed


majority hash power on the Bitcoin SV
network, creating a curious situation that
raises questions as to the security of the
so-called “real Bitcoin.”

Paxos Gold can now be lending collateral. In


high-volatility times, gold is sought after. The PAX Gold
token of Paxos is backed by physical gold kept in safe A recent Microsoft patent cites “Human body activity
vaults. associated with a task provided to a user may be used in a
mining process of a cryptocurrency system.”

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DISRUPTIVE SIGNIFIERS

shadow currencies

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

stealth
operations
Beginning solutions now will take us
safely into the future.

“At a time of increasing global


volatility, this year’s list
showcases the resilience and
optimism of businesses across
the world. These companies
are applying creativity to solve
challenges within their
industries and far beyond.”
—Fast Company senior editor Amy Farley, “LM
Industries Named to Fast Company’s 2020 List of the
World’s Most Innovative Companies for Shaping the
Future of Mobility,” GlobeNewswire, March 10, 2020

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

stealth
operations
“The World Economic Forum has listed nine of
the world smartest factories, calling them
‘lighthouses’ that shed light on the benefits of
Industry 4.0,” writes Martin Walder, “How
smart technology is transforming the industrial
world,” ManufacturingGlobal.com, March 22,
2020. “These factories are the ones that have
successfully implemented the smartest
technologies, whilst keeping people and
sustainability at the heart of what they do.” The
NIST defines smart as “fully integrated,
collaborative manufacturing systems that
respond in real time.”

Future negative Future positive


The ideal smart factory is
To be stealth means serving predictive, is able to
a lot of masters. How can communicate, saves energy
we collaborate to ensure and has increased
seamless operations? productivity.

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DISRUPTIVE TRENDS

stealth operations

Distilleries and breweries pivot to In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, medical device companies
producing hand sanitizer. Local distillers will be able to use a Bright Machines Microfactory for free
were a critical part of the movement. to expedite production for up to 12 months.

Fashion designer Christian


Siriano and clothing brand GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler also committed
Reformation are helping production efforts to virus-related products.
the effort to supply
protective masks.

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DISRUPTIVE SIGNIFIERS

stealth operations

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WORKING THROUGH AND MOVING
BEYOND COVID-19

We will emerge from this moment in time


with the opportunity to be wiser.

Learning from this moment will allow us to


enact the long-lasting change we need.

Covid-19 is making us cut through the hype


and exposing the shallowness of marketing
schemes.

Crisis forces us to take inventory and return


to the fundamentals of good design.

The post-Covid-19 world we enter should


be a more informed version of the one we
had already begun.

Let’s use the signals to assure we reflect a


functional synchronous world. A world that
we actually WANT to be in.

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HOW CAN WE CAN HELP YOU INNOVATE?

● We are working with clients to audit their


existing strategies and make immediate
sense of Covid-19 context.

● We are also helping clients plan how to


emerge from this time successfully and
sustainably.

● We offer a structural way to mine insights


that sets a foundation for future proofing
and iterative research.

● It’s how we have always worked to mitigate


risk and see emerging behavioral traits.

● We can efficiently read social language,


forecast trends, develop archetyping for
innovation platforms, conduct surveys and
platform testing, as well as collaborate with
planning teams.
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Thank you.
https://www.scenariodna.com

Authors
Marie Lena Tupot, marielena@scenariodna.com
Timothy J. Stock, timstock@scenariodna.com

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