Terms of Reference

Terms of References

ADPC Position: Firm (International/Regional) Supporting Project:

CARE for South Asia Project
Functional Title: Firm for Flood Modeling and Flood (Component 2)
Hazard Assessment for selected districts in
selected River Basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and
Pakistan.

Reference No.: TH - ADPC – 240190 – CS - CQS

Duty Station: Dhaka (Bangladesh), Kathmandu Duration of Contract: 12 Months
(Nepal) and Islamabad (Pakistan)
Section I: Introduction and Background

A. About Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)

ADPC is an autonomous international organization with a vision to reduce disaster and
climate risk impacts on communities and countries in Asia and the Pacific by working
with governments, development partners, international organizations, NGOs, civil
society, private sector, media, and other key stakeholders. Established in 1986 as a
technical capacity building center, ADPC has grown and diversified its expertise across
social and physical sciences to support sustainable solutions for risk reduction across
a broad range of specialist areas. With over 100 staff from 19 different nationalities
and a wide range of professional expertise from atmospheric scientists to social
scientists with experiences from all levels of engagement typically required for
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Resilience (CR) in an effective manner. ADPC
is a competent regional resource center and has seven thematic departments: ADPC
Academy, Risk Governance, Climate Resilience, Urban Resilience, Health Risk
Management, Preparedness for Response and Recovery, Geospatial Information.
These are supported by Finance, Human Resources and Administration, and Strategic
Planning departments. In addition to the departments, ADPC works on three cross-
cutting themes: Gender and Diversity, Poverty and Livelihoods, and Regional and
Transboundary Cooperation through permanent working committees.

For details, please refer to ADPC website at http://www.adpc.net/.

B. About Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia project

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The "Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia" or CARE for South Asia project
is a five-year (2020-2025), regional project supported by the World Bank, and
implemented by Asia Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and Regional Integrated
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES). The project is
supporting the region in building resilience to climate change by improving the
availability of regional data and knowledge, developing guidelines, tools and
capacities, and promoting climate-resilient decisions, policies and investments across
key sectors. The development objective is to contribute to an enabling environment for
climate resilience policies and investments in select sectors and countries in South Asia.
Key stakeholders include governments and technical agencies at the regional and
national level. With the financial support from the World Bank Group, ADPC will be
implementing a five years’ project, titled “Climate Adaptation and Resilience Project for
South Asia” (CARE).

C. Background:
Agriculture is the main source of livelihood in South Asia. The majority of the
economically active population is reliant on agriculture for their livelihoods (CGIAR). The
agriculture sector contributes approximately 19% of the regional Gross Domestic
Product (World Bank). However, Agriculture in South Asia is highly susceptible to
climate variability and climate change, given their sensitivity to variations in
temperature, precipitation, and the occurrence of extreme events and disasters such
as droughts, floods, and cyclones. Several locational factors such as distinct geography,
demographic trends, socio-economic factors, traditional farming practices, and limited
adaptive capacities also increase the vulnerability of countries in South Asia (CGIAR).
Similarly, road transport is key to enabling many aspects of economic life such as trade,
public services delivery, governance, tourism, and other economic activities in South
Asia. Governments invest significantly in road infrastructure to provide connectivity to
all economic zones primarily to reduce poverty and promote rural development. This
requires more concerted efforts towards improving the current road infrastructure,
especially in the geologically fragile mountain terrain of Nepal and in the flat terrain of
Bangladesh, which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as floods, storm
surges and landslides caused by heavy rain and cyclones.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment

Report (AR5) summary for the South Asia region, warming trends including increasing
annual mean temperature at the country scale have been observed across most of the
countries in South Asia (IPCC, 2014). In South Asia, seasonal mean rainfall shows a
declining trend with more frequent deficit monsoon, more frequent heavy precipitation
events, and decreasing light rain events, which is highly useful for agriculture (IPCC,
2014). These extreme climate events will have an increasing impact on agriculture,
human health, security, livelihoods, and poverty, with the type and magnitude of

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impact varying across South Asia. The impacts of climate change on food production
and food security in South Asia will vary, with many countries experiencing a decline in
trends in productivity (IPCC, 2014).

Agriculture-dependent countries in South Asia such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan

are highly vulnerable to climate change and associated hazards such as floods. Floods
are most common and recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards in Bangladesh, Nepal
and Pakistan. Every year floods claim thousands of lives in addition to leaving millions
homeless and inflicting considerable loss to agriculture, livestock, property and
infrastructure. Floods can be of several types such as riverine or fluvial, estuarine,
coastal, catastrophic, flash, hill torrential or, the recent trend: skewed urban or pluvial
floods.

In realizing the need to understand the impact of flood hazard on agriculture as well as
on transport sector, the services of a consultant will be required to conduct flood
(hydrological and hydrodynamic) modeling and flood hazard assessment for selected
province/districts in selected River Basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan under
CARE for South Asia project.

Section II. Objective and Scope of the Services:

A. Objective:
The main objective of the consultancy services is to conduct flood (hydrological and
hydrodynamic) and flash flood modeling and flood hazard assessment for selected
provinces/districts in selected River Basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan. The
focus of this study will be on fluvial flooding and should use a hydrologic and
hydrodynamic modeling approach to generate1D, 2D and combined flood simulation
model results for fluvial flood hazard assessment. The details of selected
province/districts in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan is provided in following table.

Province/District Name
Flood Type

Bangladesh
Kurigram
Gaibandha
Jamalpur
River Floods
Pabna
Sirajganj
Sunamganj
Flash Floods
Kishoreganj
Barguna
Coastal Floods/ Patuakhali
Storm Surge Bhola
Satkhira

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Cox’s Bazar

Nepal
River Flood
including Flash Province 2 & Bagmati Province
Floods
Pakistan

River Floods Punjab Province

B. Scope of Work:
The scope of work is as follows:
 Detailed consultations with the Project Implementation Unit (PIU), Agriculture
and Transport Sector teams of CARE for South Asia Project in Bangladesh, Nepal
and Pakistan to understand all the key activities, data requirements,
deliverables and timeline.
 Presentation of the methodology, work plan, deliverables and timeline to the
PIU, Agriculture and transport Sector team CARE for South Asia Project in
Bangladesh Nepal and Pakistan.
 Presentation of detail methodology and workplan with concerned government
authorities at federal and provincial levels.
 Organize validation workshops with federal and provincial governments to
validate the findings and receive endorsement from the government.
Data:
 Assessment of data needs for the study of hydrological and hydrodynamic
modeling, flood hazard assessment, and mapping.
 Collection of data relevant for flood and flash flood modeling and flood hazard
assessment in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan.
 Collection of hydrological, meteorological and other data from existing sources.
The data may include river cross-section data collected during recent studies
(within last 5 years) from relevant agencies in the project countries.
 Develop inventory of data available for flood hazard assessment and mapping,
in particular the data needed for hydrological and hydrodynamic model
development.
 Analysis of data gaps, including data quantity and quality related to
requirements for the completion of hydrological and hydrodynamic models for
studying riverine or fluvial flood hazards assessment.
 Based on the data gaps identified, collection of all relevant data for the study,
such as time series: rainfall data, river water levels and discharges, hydrographs
for relevant rivers, historic flood information etc.
 Collection of spatial information including river bathymetry, river cross sections,
watersheds, hydraulic structure data, digital surface and terrain level data, etc.
Furthermore, the collection of spatial information would include
development/acquisition of GIS layers serving the needs of hydrological
modelling, such as layers providing information on terrain slopes, soil type and
thickness, land cover, vegetation, etc., and for the presentation of model and

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other study results.

 Include roads, bridges, retaining and other major road structures within 300-
500m (or within appropriate extent depending on river morphology but not
exceeding 500m) from the high flood levels (HFL) of the selected rivers in
Bangladesh and Nepal in the cross-section measurements. Planned cross-
section measurements shall be extended beyond the HFL (max. of 500m) to
include the road infrastructures where they exist. Cross-section shall be
collected at the c/l of bridge with additional 2 to 4 cross-sections upstream and
downstream at appropriate intervals required for hydraulic modelling.
 Appropriate considerations of roads, bridges, retaining and other major road
structures within the HFL of the rivers and flood plain of Coastal Flood/Storm
Surge shall be done for hydraulic analysis required for flood inundation
modelling.
 In case of availability of recent river cross section data, DEM and other data,
these shall be acquired from reliable authorities. Assessment of these
secondary data shall be done for accuracy and usability for the assignment.
 In case of DEM, available data of most appropriate resolution shall be used.
Comparative assessment shall be done for different available DEM (national
DEM, SRTM/MERIT, ASTER GDEM, ALOS PALSAR DEM, CARTOSAT-1 DEM) and the
most appropriate shall be used for the flood modelling.
 The new development plans for road and bridge need to be considered
alongside the existing condition in discussion with relevant authorities (bridges
of more than 100.0m length with foundation obstructing river flows).
 Collection of land use data to analyze potential impacts of floods in arable land
(river cutting, sand deposition, siltation, crop and livestock damage) and identify
adaptive land use and agricultural practices in the medium and long-run.
 Collection of historical data on inundation of crop lands and scenario analysis
to identify potentially inundation-prone area to identify highly vulnerable
geographic locations and agricultural systems (hotspots).
 Preparation of a base map for the selected river basins, serving as a background
for hydrological and hydrodynamic model development to present model
results and for the generation of flood hazard maps.
Model:
 Develop hydrological and hydrodynamic models for selected river basins in
Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan based on data availability, calibration,
adequate simulation of flood volumes and peak flows as well as reliable
simulation of dominant hydrological processes.
 Calibration of the hydrological and hydrodynamic models and the channel and
overland flow roughness parameters on the basis of past floods and the
sensitivity analysis of peak flows. Hydrological and hydraulic models must be
calibrated to previously recorded flood events. While calibrating, the period of
the event in relation to the vegetation and morphological changes should be
taken into the account. Before the calibration the historical/recorded data
should be critically evaluated and excluded in case of inconsistencies.
 Validation of the hydrological and hydrodynamic models using at least one flood
event different from the ones used for calibration.

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 Carry out a sensitivity analysis of hydrological and hydrodynamic parameters

(e.g. spatial and temporal variation, rainfall losses, lag, catchment storage,
roughness, energy losses, bridge coefficients, boundary conditions etc.) and
discuss uncertainty sources and further steps for a probabilistic analysis.
Maps and Reports:
 Produce estimated potential flood hazard maps for 1 in 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500-
year return periods on the basis of model simulations with the different climate
change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in 2030, 2050s and 2080s.
 Flood hazard maps of above return periods should be generated as GIS layers
to include the following:
 Flood outlines showing the flood extent,
 Flood depth at each model element.
 Flood velocities and time durations of flood water extent.
 Determine flood warning and danger levels at selected flood forecasting station
locations for early warning systems.
Section III. Deliverables
The consulting firm will be required to submit the following deliverables as a result of
the implementation of activities as outlined in these terms of reference:

 Initial scoping report elaborating on the methodologies for key activities, tools
and workplans for the consultancy (30 days after signing contract).

 Potential flood hazard maps and GIS datasets (flood extents, depths, velocities
in appropriate GIS format and resolutions) for 1 in 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500-year
return periods on the basis of model simulations with the different climate
change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in 2030, 2050s and 2080s for selected
river basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan (6 months after signing
contract).
 Detailed flood hazard assessment report with analysis and findings for selected
river basins in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan for both road transport and
agriculture sectors (8 months after signing contract).

 The flood hazard assessment report should contain justification of the

modelling method, modelling software used, limitations of the modelling
method and of the software used as well as a detailed description of the
procedure, any assumption made for model simplification and data used
analysis of hydraulic structures and their impact on water levels. It should also
include information on uncertainties as well as any other issues which may
affect the accuracy of output.

 Detailed final closure report covering the results and achievements including
knowledge products prepared, analysis, findings, lessons learnt, and conclusion
and recommendations (9 months after signing contract – to be discussed at
contract negotiation).

 Monthly report on the progress of activities and monitoring of deliverables ( end

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of every calendar month).

Section IV. Selection, and Others:

A. Selection Criteria:
 The Consultant is expected to be a firm or an association of consulting firms
with the appropriate capabilities and experience of at least 7 years with specific
capacity to execute the services in riverine and flash flood hazard assessment,
hydrology and hydrodynamic modeling, flood modeling and simulation,
weather and climate modelling in South Asia in the last 5 years.
 This assignment requires a team of international, regional, and national
experts/consultants to ensure the integration of international and national best
practices and standards into the study.
 The Consultant team may propose additional technical experts to improve the
quality of the output.
 The Consultant should have a track record in carrying out technical assistance
and consultancy services on flood hazard assessment, hydrology, water
resource management, and project management, and have proven experience
in planning, implementation and management of programs related to flood
hazard assessment, stakeholder engagement aspects.
 The Consultant should have proven experience of working with federal and
provincial government agencies, the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, UN
or international agencies in South Asia.
 The Consultant should have proven experience of undertaking assignment of
similar nature in South Asia.
 The Consultant should have good understanding of water resource
management sector and climate change issues in South Asia.
 The Consultant should have proven ability for data collection, and analysis for
relevant activities.
 The Consultant should have availability and access to
Infrastructure/equipment/software etc. required for the completion of the
assignment.
 The Consultant should demonstrate financial capacity to execute this
requirement.
 The Consultant should demonstrate financial capacity based on previous
activities which align to the current requirements.
 The Consultant should evidence financial size of the last three (3) projects and
year wise turnover for the last five (5) financial years.
 The Consultant should have the following essential technical expertise/human

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resources to complete activities and tasks and deliver quality outputs on time.
However, these are indicative and the firms are encouraged to propose
additional inputs required to complete the assignment within the schedule.
Intermittent
Title Qualification Experience Engagement
(Person Months)
Key Position
Senior Flood M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 20 Years 4
Hazard Water Resource, Civil Engineering
Assessment with 20 years of relevant
Specialist - experience in integrated urban
Team Leader flood risk management, river
basin management, hydraulic
(International/ engineering, flood modelling,
Regional) operation and maintenance of
urban flood control and drainage
systems, hydrology, water
resources management, civil
engineering and disaster risk
management institutional issues.
The Team Leader should have
project management capability,
including managing teams of
national / international experts.
He/she should have excellent
communication skills,
presentation skills and ability to
prepare/manage preparation of
high-quality reports, project
documentation, and
communications materials, as
well as experience in working with
projects funded by international
donors (i.e. World Bank, ADB).
Hydrologist M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 10 Years 6
Water Resource, Civil Engineering
with 10 years of relevant
experience in monitoring and
processing of hydro-
meteorological data, statistical
analyses of rainfall, water level
and discharge data, rainfall-runoff
modelling and flood forecasting.
Flood Hazard M.Sc./M.Tech. in Hydrology, 7 Years 6
Modeler

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Water Resource, Civil Engineering

with 7 years of relevant
experience in hydrological and
hydraulic modeling and capability
of producing flood hazard maps
based upon the statistical
processing of underlying data.
The Specialist should also have
experience in the determination
of exposure and vulnerability
values underlying the production
of flood risk maps.
GIS and M.Sc./M.Tech. in GIS and Remote 7 Years 6
Database Sensing with 7 years of relevant
Specialist experience in working on GIS
mapping and developing tools for
risk assessments and decision-
support systems. The Specialist
must have working experience in
interfacing with tools for
hydraulic and hydrological
modeling, climate change tools,
and working with temporal
databases and time series
information.
Non-Key
Project M.Sc./M.Tech. in water resources 5 Years 6
Coordinator management, environment
(3 Nos.) sciences with 5 years relevant
experience.
Data Analysts M.Sc./M.Tech. in Statistics, Data 5 Years 6
(3 Nos.) Sciences or related discipline with
5 years relevant experience.
Note: Applicants can propose additional expertise in view of the technical requirements
of the assignment.

B. Selection Method
 The Consultant will be selected in accordance with ADPC’s procurement process
and in compliance with the World Bank Procurement Regulations. Consulting
Firm will be selected on Consultant’s Qualification-based Selection (CQS).
C. Reporting Relationships
 The Consultant will report to Project Director, CARE for South Asia Project,

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Bangkok (Thailand) and work in close coordination with Country Project Lead,
CARE for South Asia project Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan.

D. Contract Duration
 The contract duration will be for Twelve (12) months. It is important to note that
the firm will be expected to produce a few priority deliverables in the shortest
possible time.
E. Eligibility
 State-owned enterprises (SOEs), NGOs and universities (either alone, joint
venture or sub-consultant) may be eligible to compete and be awarded
contracts only if they can establish, in an acceptable manner that they (i) are
legally and financially autonomous; (ii) operate under commercial law; and (iii)
are not under supervision by the agency they will work with.
F. How to apply:

 Interested Consultants can submit the Expression of Interest to the attention

of Ms. Kulradtha Sukprasert at : procurement.care@adpc.net.

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