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ABSTRACT
Modeling and analysis of lifetimes is an important aspect of statistical work in a wide variety of scientific and technological
fields. In this study, a four-parameter lifetime model called the Generalized Weibull-Pareto (GWPD) distribution was
proposed using the concept of exponentiated distributions. Some properties of the proposed distribution have been studie d
including explicit expressions for the moments, moments generating function, Survival and Hazard function. The method of
Maximum Likelihood Estimation was used for estimating the model parameters. The proposed distribution was applied to
two real data sets to prove its fit over some other baseline distributions.
Keywords: Moments, Moments Generating Function, Survival and Hazard function, Maximum likelihood Estimation.
G x ; , k 1 x ; , k 0 (1)
x
with the probability density function (pdf) given as:
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k k
g x ; , k k 1 x ; , k 0 (2)
x
Where 0 is a scale parameter, k 0 is a shape parameter and x is a variable.
This study seeks to increase the flexibility of The Generalized Weibull–G Family of Distribution
the Pareto distribution using the generalized weibull-G According to Codeiro et al., (2015), the
family of distribution proposed by Codeiro etal. (2015). cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the Generalized
The derived distribution will be used to identify some Weibull-G family is given by
basic properties which will be used to describe the new
distribution (GWPD).
log 1G ( x ; )
t
1 t
F ( x) e dt (3)
0
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Below are the possible plots for the pdf and cdf of the GWPD at different parameter values.
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k
1
k
k k
F ( x) 1 log 1 1
k 0 k!
x
(8)
Recall that for any real parameter c and z (0,1) it can be shown that;
log1 z c z c c pi (c i )z i c 1
i 0 (9)
Following the above methodology by Codeiro et al. (2015) in equation (9), it can be shown that the last term of equation (8)
becomes;
k k k i 1
log 1 1 k k
k
1 k pi k 11 (10)
x x
i 1
x
Also recall that
k
1 G x
x
And for any positive non integer , G (x ) can be expand as follows;
log1 G x k (G ( x)) k k p i (k i )G ( x)
K i 1
i 1
k
G( x)k 1 (1 G( x))k 1 p
1 G( x) p
p 0 p
And then
r 0 r
Hence;
k p
G( x)k 1 pr
p
Gx r
p 0 r 0 r r
p
Replacing
p 0 r o
by , will give
r 0 p r
k p
G( x)k 1 pr G( x) r ,
r 0 p r p r
And this can be expressed as
G ( x) k S r ( k ) G ( x) r (11)
r 0
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Making use of equation (11) in (10) and simplifying the resulting expression, will give;
log[1 (1 )] S k
k
x r ( k ) G ( x) r k p i (k i ) S r ( k i 1) G ( x) r
r 0 i 1 r 0
= S r ( k ) k pi (k i) S r ( k i 1) G ( x) r
r 0 i 1 r 0
r
k
= r G( x) r 1
r
(12)
x
Where r S r ( k ) k pi (k i) S r ( k i 1)
r 0 i 0 r 0
Substituting equation (12) in (8) and rearranging, will give the cdf, F (x ) of the GWPD as;
1k k
r
k
F ( x)
r 1
x 0, r , , k 0
k! x
k 1 ,
1k k 1 k
r
F ( x) r (13)
k! x
k 1
Where r is a power parameter, x is a random variable and r .is a coefficient also
k 1
r 1
Also, by differentiating equation (13) with respect to x and changing indices, the corresponding pdf of the ( GWPD) is given
as;
r 1
dF ( x) 1 k k k
k k
f ( x) r r k 1 1 , x 0, r , , k 0 (14)
dx k 1 k! x x
Where r is a power parameter, x is a random variable Moments and Moments Generating Function
In this section, the moments and generating
and r .is a coefficient also
k 1
r 1
function of the (GWPD) were derived.
The result in equation (14) ensures that some
Mathematical properties of the GWPD such as ordinary Moments
and incomplete moments, generating function and mean Let f ( x / , , k ) be a continuous random
deviations can be derived from those quantities of the variable from the (GWPD) in equation (7), using (14) it is
exponentiated Pareto distribution as in Ali et al (2007).. easy to obtain the nth moment of x defined as:
E ( x ) x n f ( x)dx
n '
n
0
th
The n Moments of the (GWPD) is given as;
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ATBU, Journal of Science, Technology & Education (JOSTE); Vol. 5 (2), June, 2017 ISSN: 2277-0011
(1) k k k k
k r 1
E(x ) x
n '
r k 1 1 dx
n
k 1 x x
n
k!
0
r 1
k
(1) k k n k
k
r
'
r x k 1 1 dx (15)
x x
n
k 1 k! 0
Using binomial expansion on the last term in equation (15), will give;
r 1
k r 1
1 1 j
r 1 jk
j x
x
j 0
r r
'
n x k 1 dx
j 0 k 1 k! j 0 x x
r 1
r 1 k ( j 1) n k ( j 1) 1
(1) j k k
r r k 0 x dx
j 0 k 1 j
k!
Considering the concept and properties of the exponentiated Pareto distribution, the nth moment of x a random variable for
the generalized Weibull-Pareto distribution is given as;
r 1
(1) j k k r 1 r
E ( x ) n r k
n ' n
(16)
j 0 k 1 k! j k ( j 1) n
If n<k and r N
Setting n=1 in equation (16), gives the first moment of f ( x/α, θ, k) as
r 1
(1) j k k r 1 r
Mean E ( x) 1' rk (17)
j 0 k 1 k! j k ( j 1) 1
If k 1 and r N
0 (18)
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tk '
M x (t ) k (19)
k 0 k!
Where
k' x k f ( x)dx is the kth moment obtained from equation (16)
0
Characteristics Function x (t )
Let x be a continuous random variable, the characteristics function of x is defined as;
x (t ) E[e itx ] Ecos tx i sin tx (20)
Note;
cos tx
1n t 2n x 2n i sin tx
1 t 2 n 1 2 n 1
n
x
n 0 (2n)! n 0 2n 1!
E[cos tx]
1n t 2n E ( x 2n ) 1n t 2n '
n 0 2n!
n 0 2n! 2n
(1) n t 2 n 1
(1) n t 2 n 1 '
E[i sin tx] E ( x 2 n 1 ) 2n
n 0 ( 2n 1)! n 0 ( 2n 1)!
x t E cos tx E i sin tx
1n t 2 n '
1 t 2 n 1 '
n
2n 2 n 1 (21)
n 0 2n ! n 0 2 n 1!
The Central Moments and Variance
The nth moment about the mean or central moment can be obtained as;
i n
n
n E ( X 1' ) n 1 E ( X ni ) ''' (22)
i 1 i
The variance is defined as the central moment of order 2 (i.e n=2)
Var ( x) 2 2' 1'2
Where 2' and 1'2 are the first and second moment and moment squared which could be obtain using equation (16) given
above.
Quantile Function
According to Codeiro et al, (2015), let Q( ) F 1 ( ) be the quantile function (qf) of F 1 ( x) for 0 < u < 1.
Inverting F (x ) in equation (6), the qf of x is given as;
x f 1 ( ) Q 1 exp 1 log(1 ) 1
(23)
Simplifying equation (6), the qf for the GWPD is given as follow;
F ( x ) 1 exp log1 G ( x; )
, where ( ; ) is the cdf of the baseline distribution and
x Qu , F Qu u , Qu F 1 u
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k
1 exp log 1 1 u
Q u
k
log 1 1 1
ln
Q u
1 u
Simplify the above equation and make Qu the subject, the qf for the GWPD is given as,
1
1
k
1 1
Q ( ) exp ln (24)
1
In particular, the distribution of the median is obtained by substituting u=0.5 as follow;
1
1
k
1
Q(0.5) exp ln(2) (25)
Skewness and Kurtosis
In this study, the quantile based measures of skewness and kurtosis was employed due to non-existence of the
classical measures in some cases. The Bowley’s measure of skewness (Kennedy and Keeping, 1962.) based on quartiles is
given by;
3 1 1
Q 2Q Q
SK 2 4
4
(26)
3 1
Q Q
4 4
And the Moores’ (1998) kurtosis is on octiles and is given by;
7 5 3 1
Q Q Q
KT 8 8 8
8
(27)
6 1
Q Q
8 4
Order Statistics
Suppose x1 ,.........., x n is a random sample from a distribution with pdf f (x ) , and let
x1:n ,......., xi:n denote the corresponding order statistic obtained from this sample. The pdf, f i:n ( x) of the i th
order statistic is given by;
f ( x) F ( x) i 1 1 F ( x)
n! n i
f i:n ( x) (28)
(i 1)!(n i )!
The ith order statistics of the GWPD is given by
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ATBU, Journal of Science, Technology & Education (JOSTE); Vol. 5 (2), June, 2017 ISSN: 2277-0011
j i 1
(1) k k k k (1) k k
k r 1 k r
j n i
n i
f i:n ( x) n (1) r r k 1 1 k! r 1 k (29)
j 0 j k 1 k! x x k 1
RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Survival Function
Survival function is the probability that a system or an individual will survive beyond a given time. Mathematically,
the survival function is defined by:
S ( x) 1 F ( x) (32)
where F (x ) is cdf of the GWPD
The survival function of the GWPD is given by:
k
S ( x) 1 1 exp log 1 1
x
k
S ( x) exp log 1 1 (33)
x
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Figure 3: the plot of the survival function of the GWPD for different parameter values where
a , b , c andk d
The survival function indicates the probability Hazard Function
that a component or individual (y) will survive at time (x) Hazard function is also called the failure or risk
for the GWPD. function and is the probability that a component will fail
or die for an interval of time. The hazard function is
defined as;
f ( x)
h( x ) (34)
1 F ( x)
Where f (x ) and F (x ) are the pdf and cdf of the GWPD
The hazard function of the GWPD is given by:
1
k k k
h( x ) log 1 1 (35)
k x k 1 x
1
x
Figure 4: The plot of the hazard function of the GWPD for different parameter values where
a , b , c andk d
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The hazard plot displays the instant failure rate MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
for component (y) at time (x). From the hazard function In this section, the non-linear equations for
the following can be observed; finding the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and
i. if 1 , the failure rate is a function of x and is inference of the parameters for the (GWPD) distribution
was derived. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is one
given by; h x This makes the GWPD not
x2 of the most widely used estimation methods for finding
suitable for modeling components or systems with a the unknown parameters. Let x1 ,........., x n be a sample
constant failure rate. from equation (7) and , , , k .The log-
T
ii. if 1 , the hazard function is an increasing function likelihood function for is given by;
of x, which makes the distribution GWPD suitable for
Let log likelihood log Lx , , k , L
modeling components that wears faster with time.
iii. if 1 , the hazard function is a decreasing
function of x, which makes the GWPD suitable for
modeling components that wears slower with time.
n n
k
L( ) n log n log n log k nk log (k 1) log( xi ) log 1 1
i 1 i 1 xi
k n
k
1 log log 1 1 log 1 1
n
(36)
xi i 1 xi
i 1
From (36) the components of the score vectors U ( ) (U , U , U K , U ) are;
l n
k
n
log 1 1 (37)
i 1 xi
n
l n
k k k
n
log1 1 log log1 1
log log1 1
i 1 xi
i 1 xi
xi
(38)
k k
log log
n x
l n n
i xi n
xi xi
n log logxi 1
k k i 1 i 1 k
i 1 k k
1 1 log1 1 1 1
xi x xi
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k
1
k
log 1 1
log
xi xi
xi
n
(39)
i 1 k
1 1
xi
k k
k k
n
l nk n xi xi
1
i 1 k i 1 k
k
1 1 log 1 1 1 1
i
x i xi
x
1
k k k
log 1 1
xi xi xi
n
(40)
i 1 k
1 1
xi
The MLE of is obtained by solving the nonlinear Data set I: The data set is on the strength of 1.5cm glass
likelihood equations U ( ) 0 , U ( ) 0 and fibers. The data was originally obtained by workers at
U ( ) 0 . the UK National physical laboratory and it has been used
by Smith and Naylor (1987), Barreto-souza et al. (2011),
APPLICATION Bourguignon et al. (2014), Oguntunde et al. (2015) and
In this section, the potentiality of the GWPD is Afify and Aryal (2016).
illustrated in two applications to real data. The fits of the
Generalized Weibull-Pareto distribution (GWPD) was Data set II: The data set represents observations on the
compared with those of five baseline distributions remission times (in months) of a random sample of 128
namely: The Exponential Pareto Distribution (EPD), the bladder cancer patients. The data set was previously
Exponentiated Weibull Pareto distribution (EWPD), the studied by Lemonte and Cordeiro (2013) and Zea et al.
Pareto Distribution (PD), the Weibull Distribution (WD) (2012). The summary of the two data sets are provided
and the Exponentiated Pareto Distribution ( EDPD). The as follows;
two data sets are:
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Data 2: The Remission times (in months) of a random sample of 128 Bladder Cancer Patients
0.080,0.200,0.400,0.500,0.510,0.810,0.900,1.050,1.190,1.260,1.350,1.400,1.460,1.760,2.020,2.020,2.070,2.090,2.230,2.260,2.4
60,2.540,2.620,2.640,2.690,2.690,2.750,2.830,2.870,3.020,3.250,3.310,3.360,3.360,3.480,3.520,3.570,3.640,3.700,3.820,
3.880,4.180,4.230,4.260,4.330,4.340,4.400,4.500,4.510,4.870,4.980,5.060,5.090,5.170,5.320,5.320,5.340,5.410,5.410,5.490,
5.620,5.710,5.850,6.250,6.540,6.760,6.930,6.940,6.970,7.090,7.260,7.280,7.320,7.390,7.590,7.620,7.630,7.660,7.870,7.93
0,8.260,8.370,8.530,8.650,8.660,9.020,9.220,9.470,9.740,10.06,10.34,10.66,10.75,11.25,11.64,11.79,11.98,12.02,12.03,12.07,12.63,
13.11,13.29,13.80,14.24,14.76,14.77,14.83,15.96,16.62,17.12,17.14,17.36,18.10,19.13,20.28,21.73,22.69,23.63,25.74,25.82,26.31,32.15,3
4.26,36.66,43.01,46.12,79.05
Lemonte and Cordeiro (2013).
The summary of the two data sets on table one Information Criterion) and BIC (Bayesian Information
(1) above reveals that the two data sets are positively Criterion) will be used. These statistics are given as:
skewed data. Data set one (1) has a skewness of 0.8786 AIC 2ll 2k ,
and kurtosis of 3.9238 which indicates that the data sets CAIC 2ll 2kn n k 1 and
is lightly skewed, while data sets two (2) has a skewess BIC 2ll k log( n)
of 3.286 and kurtosis of 18.483 which indicates that the
Where ll denotes -log-likelihood value evaluated at the
data set is highly skewed
Maximum Likelihood Estimation k is the number of
In order to compare these distributions, the AIC (Akaike
model parameters and n is the sample size.
Information Criterion), CAIC (Consistent Akaike
Table 2: Performance of the distribution using the AIC, CAIC and BIC values of the models based on the data set I (strength
of 1.5cm glass fibres).
Models Parameter - loglikelihood AIC CAIC BIC
estimates
GWPD =0.0122 31.30 39.30 39.99 38.50
=2.3949
=1.1020
=0.8118
EDPD =19.0716 98.62 102.62 102.82 102.22
=3.6803
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Table 3: Performance of the distribution using the AIC, CAIC and BIC values of the models based on the data set II (the
remission times (in months) of a random sample of 128 bladder cancer patients).
Models Parameter - loglikelihood AIC CAIC BIC
estimates
GWPD =0.6973 38.90 46.90 46.72 47.26
=3.3025
=0.2779
=0.0587
EDPD =0.5647 111.08 117.08 116.99 117.40
=0.0061
=0.5700
EWPD =3.0531 50.04 58.04 57.79 58.46
=4.1020
=2.6007
=2.0911
EPD =1.0004 128 134.88 134.79 135.20
=0.3786
=0.0059
PD =0.5173 96.48 100.48 100.45 100.69
=0.0034
WD =0.2485 69.56 73.56 73.53 73.77
=0.2146
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