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Daily Forecasting of COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia - Summer Wave

(1/09/2020)
Technical Report · July 2020
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Milan Batista
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Daily Forecasting of
COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia
Summer Wave
University of Ljibljana, Faculty of Maritime Studies and Transport
June, July, August 2020.
Portorož, 1.Sep 2020
1.September 2020 (1/4) EpiEstim model
1.September 2020 (2/4) multistage SI model
1.September 2020 (3/4) Daily cases by age
1.September 2020 (4/4) EU EpiEstim model
Incidence Rate Attack rate per
Country per 14 days per R 100 000
100 000 persons persons
Latvia 4 1.24 73
Finland 6 0.99 146
Cyprus 11 0.84 124
Hungary 12 1.95 63
Estonia 14 1.23 178
Lithuania 17 1.11 108
Slovakia 19 1.16 72
Denmark 21 0.86 290
Germany 22 1.01 293
Slovenia 22 1.10 137
Bulgaria 25 0.95 233
Italy 25 1.33 431
Sweden 26 0.83 817
Poland 27 1.00 177
Greece 29 1.01 95
Ireland 30 1.02 583
Portugal 37 1.19 565
Czech Republic 41 1.13 230
Netherlands 41 0.96 406
Austria 44 1.10 308
Belgium 59 0.91 738
Romania 84 0.99 452
Croatia 89 1.20 252
Luxembourg 90 1.11 1076
France 92 1.26 420
Malta 101 0.80 374
Spain 125 0.84 950
31.August 2020 (1/3) EpiEstim model
31.August 2020 (2/3) multistage SI model
31.August 2020 (3/3) EU EpiEstim model
Latvia 4 1.26 73
Finland 6 1.02 146
Hungary 11 1.93 61
Cyprus 12 0.88 124
Estonia 14 1.32 178
Slovakia 18 1.16 71
Denmark 22 0.85 289
Germany 22 1.03 291
Italy 24 1.36 430
Sweden 24 0.75 813
Poland 27 1.01 176
Greece 29 1.00 94
Ireland 30 1.04 582
Austria 43 1.09 305
Belgium 59 0.89 735
Romania 84 0.98 448
Croatia 87 1.24 249
France 89 1.28 416
Malta 111 0.86 370
Spain 122 0.80 935
Unstable
Incidence Rate per
Attack rate per 100
Country 14 days per 100 000 R
000 persons
persons
Latvia 3 1.15 71
Finland 6 1.02 145
Hungary 6 1.24 55
Estonia 11 1.29 175
Cyprus 14 0.91 122
Slovakia 16 1.19 66
Italy 19 1.38 423
Germany 22 1.08 288
Denmark 24 0.84 284
Poland 27 1.03 170
Sweden 28 0.78 813
Greece 29 1.08 88
Ireland 31 1.17 575
Austria 42 1.22 295
Belgium 64 0.93 721
France 75 1.29 388
Croatia 77 1.32 226
Romania 85 0.98 429
Malta 128 1.00 355
Spain 146 0.90 927
27.August 2020 (1/3) EpiEstim model/ SI model
27.August 2020 (2/3) SI model evaluation
Unstable
Unstable
Incidence Rate per
Attack rate per
Country 14 days per 100 R
100 000 persons
000 persons
Latvia 3 1.09 71
Hungary 5 1.16 54
Finland 7 1.12 144
Estonia 10 1.21 173
Cyprus 16 1.02 124
Slovakia 16 1.19 65
Italy 18 1.37 420
Germany 22 1.10 286
Denmark 25 0.85 283
Poland 27 1.02 168
Greece 29 1.08 86
Sweden 29 0.79 843
Ireland 31 1.21 573
Austria 40 1.22 292
Belgium 65 0.92 716
France 70 1.27 379
Croatia 74 1.37 218
Romania 85 0.97 422
Spain 109 0.88 874
Malta 132 1.05 348
Incidence Rate per
Attack rate per 100
Country 14 days per 100 000 R
000 persons
persons
Latvia 3 0.89 70
Hungary 5 1.06 53
Finland 6 1.15 144
Estonia 10 1.14 172
Slovakia 15 1.25 63
Cyprus 16 1.06 123
Italy 16 1.35 418
Germany 22 1.12 284
Denmark 26 0.87 282
Poland 27 1.02 166
Greece 28 1.09 83
Ireland 28 1.13 570
Sweden 32 0.85 842
Austria 39 1.24 288
Belgium 65 0.92 713
France 66 1.26 371
Croatia 69 1.37 209
Romania 86 0.98 415
Spain 112 0.89 866
Malta 138 1.12 338
26.August 2020 (4/4) EU and World multistage SI
model
25.August 2020 (1/3) EpiEstim model/multistage SI
model
Incidence Rate per
Attack rate per
Country 14 days per 100 R
100 000 persons
000 persons
Latvia 2 0.807 69
Hungary 5 1.055 53
Finland 6 1.108 143
Estonia 9 1.071 170
Slovakia 15 1.296 63
Italy 16 1.376 411
Cyprus 17 1.066 121
Slovenia 20 1.338 125
Germany 21 1.124 282
Poland 26 1.006 164
Bulgaria 27 0.895 220
Denmark 27 0.913 273
Ireland 27 1.107 568
Portugal 28 1.023 542
Greece 29 1.135 81
Sweden 34 0.904 837
Austria 38 1.285 284
France 63 1.274 365
Croatia 65 1.434 204
Belgium 68 0.947 711
Romania 87 0.985 410
Spain 120 0.953 841
Malta 131 1.077 330
parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9
Excluded imported cases:
R = 0.72 (CrI 0.63 – 0.81) (wind_len = two-weeks)
Hungary 4 1.25 51
Latvia 4 0.91 69
Finland 5 1.12 140
Estonia 7 0.83 165
Italy 11 1.19 403
Slovakia 11 1.19 55
Cyprus 16 0.97 115
Germany 19 1.19 274
Greece 25 1.26 71
Ireland 25 1.24 557
Poland 26 1.03 154
Austria 28 1.33 269
Denmark 30 1.10 265
Sweden 34 0.88 824
Croatia 42 1.47 173
France 46 1.23 335
Belgium 72 1.00 684
Romania 88 1.00 380
Spain 110 1.03 771
Malta 125 1.35 291
R = 0.68 (CrI 0.59 – 0.77) (wind_len = two-weeks)
Due to the current jump in infections, all

model predictions are still unrealistic.
Hungary 4 1.28 50
Latvia 4 1.02 69
Finland 5 1.19 139
Estonia 8 0.96 164
Italy 10 1.20 401
Slovakia 10 1.18 53
Cyprus 16 0.99 112
Germany 17 1.17 270
Ireland 22 1.21 552
Greece 23 1.32 66
Austria 24 1.25 262
Poland 26 1.06 151
Denmark 30 1.20 262
Croatia 33 1.37 163
Sweden 40 1.04 823
France 41 1.21 326
Belgium 74 1.05 679
Romania 89 1.01 368
Spain 113 1.12 759
Malta 117 1.52 272
R = 1.24 (CrI 1.11-1.37) (wind_len = two-weeks)
R = 0.89 (CrI 0.78 – 1.01)
Due to the current jump in infections, all

model predictions are still unrealistic.
16.August 2020 (2/3) Daily cases by age
Hungary 4 1.24 50
Latvia 4 1.05 68
Finland 5 1.30 139
Estonia 8 0.95 163
Italy 9 1.21 400
Slovakia 9 1.20 52
Germany 16 1.17 268
Cyprus 17 1.07 111
Greece 21 1.42 63
Austria 22 1.23 258
Ireland 22 1.32 549
Poland 26 1.09 148
Croatia 29 1.39 157
Denmark 29 1.33 257
Sweden 33 0.90 814
France 41 1.36 321
Belgium 73 1.06 669
Spain 75 0.90 709
Romania 89 1.03 358
Malta 100 1.26 267

14.August 2020 (2/3) SI model (6-waves)
Due to the current jump in infections, all model

predictions are unrealistic. They are either
underestimated (left figure) or overestimated.
Hungary 3 1.30 49
Latvia 4 1.12 68
Finland 5 1.40 138
Italy 8 1.18 398
Estonia 9 1.12 163
Slovakia 9 1.17 50
Slovenia 9 1.07 109
Germany 15 1.19 265
Austria 18 1.04 252
Cyprus 18 1.20 108
Greece 18 1.49 59
Ireland 18 1.21 544
Croatia 24 1.23 148
Poland 25 1.11 143
Denmark 26 1.36 253
France 34 1.23 312
Sweden 34 0.97 809
Belgium 72 1.11 656
Spain 83 0.97 703
Malta 86 1.21 246
Romania 88 1.02 344

R = 1.37 (CrI 1.16-1.59) (wind_len = one-weeks

13.August 2020 (2/4) SI model
The model fails
13.August 2020 (3/4) SI model (4-waves)
Hungary 3 1.26 49
Finland 4 1.30 137
Latvia 4 1.14 68
Italy 8 1.18 397
Slovakia 8 1.11 49
Slovenia 9 1.02 108
Estonia 10 1.27 163
Germany 14 1.17 263
Greece 17 1.52 57
Austria 18 1.00 250
Cyprus 18 1.24 107
Ireland 18 1.29 542
Croatia 22 1.11 144
Poland 24 1.12 141
Denmark 25 1.43 250
France 32 1.21 308
Sweden 33 0.97 805
Belgium 73 1.16 650
Romania 88 1.02 336
Malta 94 1.44 235
Spain 100 1.15 796

Due to the current jump in infections, all model

predictions are unrealistic
Hungary 3 1.28 48
Finland 4 1.33 137
Latvia 4 1.07 67
Italy 8 1.18 396
Slovakia 8 1.05 48
Slovenia 8 0.90 106
Lithuania 9 1.21 86
Estonia 10 1.34 162
Germany 14 1.16 262
Greece 16 1.52 55
Austria 18 0.98 248
Cyprus 18 1.31 106
Ireland 18 1.38 542
Croatia 20 1.02 141
Denmark 24 1.50 248
Poland 24 1.13 139
France 30 1.20 304
Sweden 33 0.99 802
Belgium 71 1.19 647
Malta 86 1.46 226
Romania 86 1.01 329
Spain 98 1.16 790

10.August 2020 (3/4) SIR model/forecast history
Incidence Rate
Attack rate per
Country per 14 days per R
100 000 persons
100 000 persons
Finland 3 1.302 136
Hungary 3 1.243 48
Latvia 4 1.143 67
Italy 7 1.173 395
Slovakia 8 1.124 47
Estonia 9 1.486 161
Germany 13 1.116 259
Greece 13 1.627 52
Cyprus 15 1.321 103
Denmark 17 1.224 239
Ireland 17 1.667 540
Austria 18 0.959 245
Croatia 18 0.876 137
France 23 1.002 295
Poland 23 1.167 136
Portugal 24 0.902 512
Sweden 29 0.929 794
Bulgaria 43 0.941 192
Belgium 67 1.234 636
Malta 77 1.658 215
Spain 80 1.039 764
Romania 88 1.052 319

9.August 2020 (3/4) SIR model/forecast history
Hungary 2 1.11 47
Finland 3 1.31 136
Latvia 4 1.42 67
Italy 7 1.15 394
Lithuania 8 1.24 84
Slovakia 8 1.18 47
Estonia 9 1.62 161
Slovenia 9 0.85 105
Greece 12 1.59 50
Germany 13 1.16 259
Cyprus 15 1.41 102
Ireland 16 1.73 538
Denmark 17 1.32 239
Austria 18 0.97 244
Croatia 18 0.85 136
Poland 23 1.19 135
France 24 1.11 295
Sweden 29 0.94 794
Belgium 66 1.29 631
Malta 69 1.68 205
Spain 85 1.15 764
Romania 88 1.07 313

7.August 2020 (3/4) SIR model/forecasting history
Hungary 2 1.07 47
Finland 3 1.28 135
Latvia 4 1.42 66
Italy 6 1.09 393
Estonia 7 1.84 159
Slovakia 7 1.14 45
Lithuania 8 1.22 82
Greece 9 1.58 47
Slovenia 9 0.83 104
Ireland 11 1.42 533
Germany 12 1.19 257
Cyprus 14 1.61 100
Denmark 16 1.39 237
Austria 18 0.97 242
Croatia 19 0.80 132
Poland 21 1.19 130
France 24 1.19 292
Sweden 30 0.96 791
Malta 53 1.62 187
Belgium 57 1.23 617
Spain 79 1.22 749
Romania 86 1.09 299

Unstable
IR per 14-days per 100 000 persons Incidence Rate

Attack rate per 100
Date Actual Forcast Country per 14 days per R
000 persons
100 000 persons
2.8.2020 24 24
3.8.2020 25 25 Hungary 2 0.98 47
4.8.2020 26 26
Finland 3 1.24 135
5.8.2020 27 27
Latvia 3 1.23 65
6.8.2020 28
Italy 6 1.08 392
7.8.2020 29
Estonia 7 1.91 158
8.8.2020 30
Lithuania 7 1.17 81
9.8.2020 31
10.8.2020 32 Slovakia 7 1.06 44
11.8.2020 33 Greece 8 1.54 45
12.8.2020 35 Slovenia 9 0.83 102
13.8.2020 36 Ireland 10 1.35 531
14.8.2020 37 Germany 12 1.17 255
15.8.2020 39 Cyprus 13 1.77 99
16.8.2020 40 Denmark 14 1.35 235
17.8.2020 41 Austria 18 0.99 240
Poland 20 1.19 128
EU Incidence Rate per 14-days per 100 000 persons Croatia 21 0.86 132
30 France 23 1.20 289
25 y = 11.59e0.0364x
R² = 0.9963 Portugal 26 0.89 504
20
Sweden 28 0.89 787
15 Bulgaria 45 0.97 182
Malta 49 1.71 183
10
Belgium 56 1.29 612
5
Spain 81 1.34 745
Romania 85 1.10 292
0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Unstable
Incidence rate per Attack rate
Country 100 000 persons R per 100 000
per 14-days persons
Finland 2 1.11 134

Hungary 2 1.02 46
Latvia 3 1.18 65
Estonia 4 1.70 156
Greece 6 1.52 44
Italy 6 1.07 391
Lithuania 6 1.15 80
Slovakia 6 1.06 43
Ireland 8 1.36 530
Slovenia 9 0.87 101
Cyprus 10 1.84 98
Germany 10 1.06 253
Denmark 12 1.31 233
Austria 18 1.01 239
Poland 18 1.20 127
Croatia 21 0.89 130
France 21 1.20 287
Sweden 27 0.87 783
Malta 39 1.72 176
Belgium 50 1.36 610
Spain 66 1.35 739
Romania 77 1.11 285

R = 0.83 (CrI 0.67-0.98) (window length = week)
R = 0.90 (CrI 0.80-1.00) (window length = two-weeks)
Stable
4.August 2020 (3/4) SIR model
Incidence rate
Attack rate per
County per 14-days per R
100 000 persons
100 000 persons
Finland 2 1.064 134

Hungary 2 1.018 46
Latvia 3 1.161 65
Estonia 4 1.684 156
Greece 6 1.493 43
Italy 6 1.071 391
Slovakia 7 1.188 43
Ireland 8 1.432 530
Cyprus 9 1.801 96
Denmark 9 1.296 232
Germany 10 1.146 253
Slovenia 10 0.901 100
Poland 17 1.203 125
Austria 18 0.999 238
France 21 1.211 285
Croatia 22 0.891 130
Portugal 26 0.869 502
Sweden 28 0.863 782
Malta 36 1.928 172
Bulgaria 43 1.002 174
Belgium 48 1.419 605
Spain 62 1.252 727
Romania 78 1.127 279

R = 0.84 (CI 0.71-0.99)
Stable
3.August 2020 (3/3) SI (2-waves)/SIR model

R = 0.88 (CI 0.75-1.03)
1.August 2020 (3/3) SI (2-waves)/SIR model
31.July 2020 (1/4) EpiEstim model

R = 0.84 (CI 0.71-0.98)
31.July 2020 (2/4) EpiEstim model/average R
Measure
1. Prohibition of gathering in public
places over 500 people
2. 14-day quarantine for people
coming from crisis areas
places over 50 people
places over 10 people.
31.July 2020 (3/4) SI model
30.July 2020 (4/4) SI (2-waves)/SIR model

R = 0.83 (CI 0.71-0.97)
Unstable
30.July 2020 (3/4) SIR model
30.July 2020 (4/4) SI model (2 waves)
Instantaneous R = 0.84 (CrI 0.72-0.98)
Stable
Model parameters are stable


Instantaneous R = 0.97 (CI 0.83-1.12)

27.July 2020 (3/3) SIR model/SI model (2-waves)
possibly a home
for the elderly in
Hrastnik
EpiEstim: parametric SI mean = 4.6 SD = 2.9

The model is unstable, i.e., estimated

epidemic size is increasing
Short terms forecasting is impossible.

24.July 2020 (4/4) SI model (2-waves)
Forcast Actual Error %

Day Cases Incidence Cases Incidence Cases Incidence
24.7.2020 595 21 594 14 0.17 50
25.7.2020 617 22
26.7.2020 641 23
27.7.2020 665 24
The model is unstable.

24.July 2020 (2/2) SI model (2-waves)/EpiEstim Model

Forcast
Day Cases Incidence
24-Jul-2020 595 21
25-Jul-2020 618 22
26-Jul-2020 642 23
c./day c./day
day date actual predict error % act pred error %
45 15.jul.20 425 430 1.18 19 16 15.79
46 16.jul.20 444 445 0.23 19 15 21.05
47 17.jul.20 468 459 1.92 24 14 41.67
48 18.jul.20 474 471 0.63 6 12 100
49 19.jul.20 481 483 0.42 7 12 71.43
50 20.jul.20 494 11
51 21.jul.20 503 9
52 22.jul.20 512 9
20.July 2020 (2/2) SIR model/EpiEstim Model
c./day c./day
41 11.jul.20 369 360 2.44 14 19 36
42 12.jul.20 377 378 0.27 8 18 125
43 13.jul.20 387 396 2.33 10 18 80
44 14.jul.20 406 412 1.48 19 16 16
45 15.jul.20 425 427 0.47 19 15 21
46 16.jul.20 442 15
47 17.jul.20 455 13
16.July 2020 (2/2) SIR model/EpiEstim Model
Current R = 0.84 (CI 0.72-0.97)
c./day c./day
40 10.jul.20 355 341 3.94 34 19 44.12
41 11.jul.20 369 361 2.17 14 20 42.86
42 12.jul.20 377 379 0.53 8 18 125
43 13.jul.20 387 396 2.33 10 17 70
44 14.jul.20 406 413 1.72 19 17 10.53
45 15.jul.20 429 16
46 16.jul.20 443 14
15.July 2020 (1/2) SI model/EpiEstim Model
Current R = 0.80 (CI 0.68-0.95)
c./day c./day
39 9.jul.20 321 322 0.31 17 20 17.65
40 10.jul.20 355 343 3.38 34 21 38.24
41 11.jul.20 369 362 1.9 14 19 35.71
42 12.jul.20 377 381 1.06 8 19 137.5
43 13.jul.20 387 400 3.36 10 19 90
44 14.jul.20 - 417 - - 17
45 15.jul.20 - 433 - - 16
14.July 2020 (2/2) SIR model/EpiEstim model
EpiEstim: parametric SI = 4.6±1.1

Current R = 0.91 (CI 0.79-1.05)
c./day
day date actual predict error % c./day act pred error %
37 7.jul.20 291 283 2.75 24 22 8.33
38 8.jul.20 304 305 0.33 13 22 69.23
39 9.jul.20 321 328 2.18 17 23 35.29
40 10.jul.20 355 351 1.13 34 23 32.35
41 11.jul.20 369 374 1.36 14 23 64.29
42 12.jul.20 - 397 - - 23
43 13.jul.20 - 419 - - 22
EpiEstim: parametric SI = 4.6±1.1
Current R = 1.00 (CI 0.89-1.14)
Exponential growth has stalled.
c./day c./day
36 6.jul.20 267 261 2.25 23 21 8.7
37 7.jul.20 291 283 2.75 24 22 8.3
38 8.jul.20 304 307 0.99 13 24 84.6
39 9.jul.20 321 330 2.80 17 23 35.3
40 10.jul.20 355 354 0.28 34 24 29.4
41 11.jul.20 ??? 379 ??? ??? 25
42 12.jul.20 ??? 403 ??? ??? 24
EpiEstim: SI = 4.6±1.1
Current R = 1.11
10.July 2020 (1/2) exponential growth model
400
Doubling time: 6.5 days
350
Basic reproduction number: 1.4 to 2
y = 5.7626e0.1065x
R² = 0.9966
300
250
Comfirmed cases
200
150
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Day from 1.june onward
c./day c./day
34 4.jul.20 228 220 3.51 21 19 9.52
35 5.jul.20 244 241 1.23 16 21 31.25
36 6.jul.20 267 264 1.12 23 21 8.70
37 7.jul.20 291 288 1.03 24 23 4.17
38 8.jul.20 304 313 2.96 13 23 76.92
39 9.jul.20 321 339 5.61 17 23 35.29
40 10.jul.20 ??? 354 ??? 24
400
350
y = 5.6966e0.1072x
300
R² = 0.9969
250
Comfirmed cases
200
150
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
c./day c./day
33 3.jul.20 207 199 3.86 30 18 40
34 4.jul.20 228 220 3.51 21 21 0
35 5.jul.20 244 241 1.23 16 21 31.25
36 6.jul.20 267 264 1.12 23 23 0
37 7.jul.20 291 288 1.03 24 24 0
38 8.jul.20 304 313 2.96 13 25 92.31
39 9.jul.20 ??? 339 - -??? 26
40 10.jul.20 ??? 366 - -??? 27
350 Date Day Forcast Actual Difference Error %
3.jul.20 33 198 207 9 4.31
4.jul.20 34 221 228 7 3.23
300 5.jul.20 35 246 244 -2 0.71
y = 5.647e0.1078x 6.jul.20 36 274 267 -7 2.52
R² = 0.997 7.jul.20 37 305 291 -14 4.77
250 8.jul.20 38 340 ???
9.jul.20 39 378 ???
Comfirmed cases
10.jul.20 40 421 ???

200
150
100
50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
c./day c./day
32 2.jul.20 177 180 1.69 16 18 12.5
33 3.jul.20 207 199 3.86 30 19 36.67
34 4.jul.20 228 220 3.51 21 21 0
35 5.jul.20 244 243 0.41 16 23 43.75
36 6.jul.20 267 268 0.37 23 25 8.7
37 7.jul.20 291 294 1.03 24 26 8.33
38 8.jul.20 ??? 323 ??? 29
39 9.jul.20 ??? 353 ??? 30
40 10.jul.20 ??? 385 ??? 32
300 Differen
Date Day Forcast Actual ce Error %
30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 2.81
y = 5.6227e0.1081x 1.jul.20 31 160 161 1 0.39
250
R² = 0.9968 2.jul.20 32 179 177 -2 0.95
3.jul.20 33 199 207 8 3.83
4.jul.20 34 222 228 6 2.72
200 5.jul.20 35 247 244 -3 1.27
6.jul.20 36 275 267 -8 3.11
Comfirmed cases
7.jul.20 37 307 ???

150 8.jul.20 38 342 ???
100 Doubling time: 6.4 days

50
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Date Day Forcast Actual Difference Error %
300
25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.31
26.jun.20 26 94 100 6 6.38
250 27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.29
28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 2.88
y = 5.606e0.1083x
R² = 0.9965 29.jun.20 29 130 127 -3 2.01
200
Comfirmed cases
30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 3.12

1.jul.20 31 161 161 0 0.08
150 2.jul.20 32 179 177 -2 1.29
3.jul.20 33 200 207 7 3.49
4.jul.20 34 223 228 5 2.36
100
5.jul.20 35 248 244 -4 1.68
6.jul.20 36 276 ???
50 7.jul.20 37 308 ???
8.jul.20 38 343 ???
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Day from od 1.june onwardj Models predictions ,i.e., determination of
epidemic size and duration, are impossible
because we have markedly exponential
growth.
25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.20
26.jun.20 26 94 100 6 6.26
27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.15
200 y = 5.5966e0.1084x 28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 3.04
R² = 0.9962 29.jun.20 29 130 127 -3 2.18
30.jun.20 30 145 140 -5 3.30
1.jul.20 31 161 161 0 0.11
Comfirmed cases
150 2.jul.20 32 180 177 -3 1.49

3.jul.20 33 200 207 7 3.29
4.jul.20 34 223 228 5 2.14
5.jul.20 35 249 ???
100 6.jul.20 36 277 ???
7.jul.20 37 309 ???
50
Model predictions (i.e. determination of

0 epidemic size and duration) are impossible
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
because we have markedly exponential
growth.
Basic reproduction number: 2
250 Differenc
Date Day Forcast Actual e Error %
25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.36
26.jun.20 26 94 100 6 6.43
200
27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.35
28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 2.81
y = 5.6095e0.1082x 29.jun.20 29 129 127 -2 1.94
R² = 0.9958 30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 3.04
1.jul.20 31 161 161 0 0.15
Comfirmed cases
150
2.jul.20 32 179 177 -2 1.20
3.jul.20 33 200 207 7 3.57
4.jul.20 34 222 ???
5.jul.20 35 248 ???
100
6.jul.20 36 276 ???
7.jul.20 37 308 ???
50
Model predictions are impossible because
we have markedly exponential growth.
0 Doubling time: 6.4 days
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Day from 1.june onwardj Basic reproduction number: 2
200

25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.55
160 y = 5.6322e0.1079x
R² = 0.9953
26.jun.20 26 93 100 7 6.64
140 27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.58
28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 2.54
Comfirmed cases
120
29.jun.20 29 129 127 -2 1.64
100 30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 2.72
1.jul.20 31 160 161 1 0.49
80
2.jul.20 32 178 177 -1 0.84
60 3.jul.20 33 199 ???
4.jul.20 34 222 ???
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
3.July 2020 (2/4) multiple logistic model
Jun/July
180 Differenc
Date Day Forcast Actual e Error %
160 25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.63
26.jun.20 26 93 100 7 6.71
140
y = 5.6278e0.108x 27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.65
R² = 0.9948
28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 2.46
29.jun.20 29 129 127 -2 1.57
120
30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 2.64
Comfirmed cases
1.jul.20 31 160 161 1 0.57

100
2.jul.20 32 178 ???
3.jul.20 33 199 ???
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2.July 2020 (2/4) multiple logistic model
30.June 2020 (1/4) exponential growth model
June
160
Date Day Forcast Actual Difference Error %

140
25.jun.20 25 84 86 2 2.56
y= 5.6315e0.108x
26.jun.20 26 93 100 7 6.65
R² = 0.9942
120
27.jun.20 27 104 109 5 4.59
28.jun.20 28 116 113 -3 2.53
100
Comfirmed cases
29.jun.20 29 129 127 -2 1.63

30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 2.71
80
1.jul.20 31 160 ???
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
30.June 2020 (2/4) multiple logistic model
30.June 2020 (3/4) SI model
30.June 2020 (4/4) SIR model
Method
This report contains daily predictions of the evaluation of a new wave of coronavirus epidemic in Slovenia. The model used for forecasting is the logistic (SI
susceptible-infected) model and multiple logistic model which are phenomenological models, and the SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model. Both models are
data-driven model so its forecast is as good as data are. Also, we assume that the model is a reasonable description of the epidemic. More about epidemic models
see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#:~:text=12%20External%20links-
,The%20SIR%20model,The%20number%20of%20susceptible%20individuals.
As daily epidemic size forecasts begin to converge, it can be said that the outbreak is under control, i.e., it is stable. However, any systematic deviation from the
forecast curve may indicate that the epidemic is escaping control (see Example)
The program used are fitVirus, fitVirusCOVID19, and fitVirusXX. They are available athttps://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74411-fitvirus
(logistic model)
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74658-fitviruscovid19 (tha SIR model)
https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/76956-fitvirusxx (multiple logistic model)
For estimation of R EpiEstim program is used
https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EpiEstim/index.html
Serial Interval
Authors Mean CrI SD CrI Date Source
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.03.20019
Nishiura et all 4.7 3.7 6 2.9 1.9 4.9 17.2.2020 497v2
Du et all 3.96 3.53 4.39 4.75 4.46 5.07 6.6.2020 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/07/20/sci
Ali et all 5.1 4.7 5.5 5.3 5 5.6 21.6.2020 ence.abc9004
Example: China
Stable state
Unstable state
jump
First wave
4. March: first case was comfirmed
12.March: epidemic has been declared
15. May: Slovenia declared that the

epidemic is over.
15. June: Slovenia has opened all its

borders.
(In figure the forecasting epidemic

curves of the first wave are displayed.)
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Daily Forecasting of COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia - Summer Wave

Technical Report · July 2020

Port of Koper Industrial Risk Assessment View project

contingency plan for Port of Koper View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Due to the current jump in infections, all

Due to the current jump in infections, all

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

Due to the current jump in infections, all model

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

R = 1.37 (CrI 1.16-1.59) (wind_len = one-weeks

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

Due to the current jump in infections, all model

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

IR per 14-days per 100 000 persons Incidence Rate

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

Finland 2 1.11 134

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

Finland 2 1.064 134

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

Model parameters are stable

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

parametric SI mean = 4.7 SD = 2.9

EpiEstim: parametric SI mean = 4.6 SD = 2.9

The model is unstable, i.e., estimated

Short terms forecasting is impossible.

Forcast Actual Error %

The model is unstable.

EpiEstim: parametric SI mean = 4.6 SD = 2.9

EpiEstim: parametric SI = 4.6±1.1

10.jul.20 40 421 ???

7.jul.20 37 307 ???

100 Doubling time: 6.4 days

30.jun.20 30 144 140 -4 3.12

150 2.jul.20 32 180 177 -3 1.49

Model predictions (i.e. determination of

180 Date Day Forcast Actual Difference Error %

1.jul.20 31 160 161 1 0.57

Date Day Forcast Actual Difference Error %

29.jun.20 29 129 127 -2 1.63

https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/74658-fitviruscovid19 (tha SIR model)

https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/76956-fitvirusxx (multiple logistic model)

For estimation of R EpiEstim program is used

Authors Mean CrI SD CrI Date Source

Du et all 3.96 3.53 4.39 4.75 4.46 5.07 6.6.2020 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0357_article

4. March: first case was comfirmed

12.March: epidemic has been declared

15. May: Slovenia declared that the

15. June: Slovenia has opened all its

(In figure the forecasting epidemic

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