Daily Daily

Probabili cum lower upper Probabili cum

receipts payments
ty prob. limit limit ty prob.
(Rs.) (Rs.)
3000 0.2 0.2 0 0.2 3000 4000 0.3 0.3
5000 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 5000 6000 0.4 0.7
7000 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 7000 8000 0.2 0.9
12000 0.1 1 0.9 1 12000 10000 0.1 1

simulation Model
RN1 receipts RN2 payments balance summary statistics
0 8000 average
1 0.89467 7000 0.570082 6000 9000 stdev
2 0.903492 12000 0.684359 6000 15000 min
3 0.745127 7000 0.417037 6000 16000 max
4 0.121321 3000 0.943914 10000 9000
5 0.852924 7000 0.41295 6000 10000
6 0.643809 7000 0.36909 6000 11000 Range
7 0.478496 5000 0.77967 8000 8000
8 0.927889 12000 0.356025 6000 14000
9 0.3481 5000 0.912823 10000 9000
10 0.510428 7000 0.931926 10000 6000
11 0.604306 7000 0.38437 6000 7000
12 0.921089 12000 0.464424 6000 13000
13 0.93958 12000 0.98492 10000 15000
14 0.371164 5000 0.461764 6000 14000
15 0.141467 3000 0.857645 8000 9000
16 0.091058 3000 0.800188 8000 4000
17 0.894581 7000 0.279653 4000 7000
18 0.793932 7000 0.574394 6000 8000
19 0.552108 7000 0.602453 6000 9000
20 0.720047 7000 0.323289 6000 10000
21 0.226749 5000 0.624257 6000 9000
22 0.571744 7000 0.452335 6000 10000
23 0.32589 5000 0.974781 10000 5000
24 0.809941 7000 0.429167 6000 6000
25 0.296322 5000 0.896814 8000 3000
26 0.300575 5000 0.253833 4000 4000
27 0.963939 12000 0.126015 4000 12000
28 0.179682 3000 0.233763 4000 11000
29 0.807371 7000 0.38792 6000 12000
30 0.713875 7000 0.901514 10000 9000
31 0.916866 12000 0.805632 8000 13000
32 0.40505 5000 0.970962 10000 8000
33 0.751964 7000 0.738161 8000 7000
34 0.882344 7000 0.122994 4000 10000
35 0.623139 7000 0.360756 6000 11000
36 0.342273 5000 0.220274 4000 12000
37 0.496829 5000 0.690742 6000 11000
38 0.074381 3000 0.118113 4000 10000
39 0.052084 3000 0.441744 6000 7000
40 0.068548 3000 0.920682 10000 0
41 0.289627 5000 0.442706 6000 -1000
42 0.51815 7000 0.96124 10000 -4000
43 0.483667 5000 0.378615 6000 -5000
44 0.911642 12000 0.496322 6000 1000
45 0.626338 7000 0.518748 6000 2000
46 0.654574 7000 0.333578 6000 3000
47 0.89667 7000 0.755632 8000 2000
48 0.862078 7000 0.594409 6000 3000
49 0.679877 7000 0.062533 4000 6000
50 0.402754 5000 0.678581 6000 5000
51 0.78677 7000 0.659328 6000 6000
52 0.833858 7000 0.285637 4000 9000
53 0.950966 12000 0.073896 4000 17000
54 0.827567 7000 0.366809 6000 18000
55 0.795397 7000 0.141814 4000 21000
56 0.677804 7000 0.059981 4000 24000
57 0.349208 5000 0.274849 4000 25000
58 0.99726 12000 0.589301 6000 31000
59 0.807757 7000 0.769499 8000 30000
60 0.528509 7000 0.284063 4000 33000
61 0.529204 7000 0.44273 6000 34000
62 0.954075 12000 0.485981 6000 40000
63 0.876906 7000 0.4552 6000 41000
64 0.795336 7000 0.3301 6000 42000
65 0.256006 5000 0.478661 6000 41000
66 0.82769 7000 0.487603 6000 42000
67 0.183205 3000 0.942317 10000 35000
68 0.90212 12000 0.857565 8000 39000
69 0.117153 3000 0.369985 6000 36000
70 0.795173 7000 0.402109 6000 37000
71 0.494254 5000 0.297024 4000 38000
72 0.453386 5000 0.853382 8000 35000
73 0.196445 3000 0.968377 10000 28000
74 0.557144 7000 0.527628 6000 29000
75 0.50866 7000 0.694991 6000 30000
76 0.525369 7000 0.89605 8000 29000
77 0.931618 12000 0.18964 4000 37000
78 0.03138 3000 0.008224 4000 36000
79 0.80189 7000 0.816115 8000 35000
80 0.261482 5000 0.920854 10000 30000
81 0.446472 5000 0.177888 4000 31000
82 0.091886 3000 0.010312 4000 30000
83 0.658993 7000 0.607953 6000 31000
84 0.354202 5000 0.739946 8000 28000
85 0.985283 12000 0.313498 6000 34000
86 0.421357 5000 0.180347 4000 35000
87 0.400337 5000 0.976566 10000 30000
88 0.394044 5000 0.417681 6000 29000
89 0.593162 7000 0.864424 8000 28000
90 0.070719 3000 0.416612 6000 25000
 lower upper
limit limit

0 0.3 4000
0.3 0.7 6000
0.7 0.9 8000
0.9 1 10000

summary statistics Recipts payments balance

6633.333 6444.444 17933.33
2624.217 1914.528 13184.77
3000 4000 -5000
12000 10000 42000

Bin Frequency

Histogram
80
70
60
50
40
30
12000 0 20
10
More 0
0
00 33 67 00 67 33 00 67
Bin Frequency Probability 30 33
3
66
6
-2
0
66
6
33
3 90 66
6
-1
-13000 0 0 3 3 6 66 66 33 66
6
33 6 66 33 66 3 3
.3 3
.66 6 6 3 3
6. .3
-9333.333 0 3 6 6. 3. 66 33
33 566 16
6 3 3
12 16
3
-5666.667 0 -9 - 5
-2000 0
1666.667 0
5333.333 0
9000 3
12666.67 6
16333.33 14
More 67
90
 Histogram

Frequency

0 67 33 00 67 33 e
00 3 or
66
6
33 90 66
6
33
3 M
6 3 6 3
66 33 66 33
66 33
3 66 33
3. 6. 3.
3 66 33
53 12 16
 SP 249 Direct laboc1 Profit
Adm cost 400000 parts cpst c2 #VALUE!
Advtsg cos 600000 first year x

Direct
Probabili
Labour Lower upper
ty
Cost/unit cum prob. limit limit DL/unit Parts cost ( uniform distrn)
43 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 43 minimum 80
44 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 44 maximum 100

45 0.4 45
0.7 0.3 0.7
46 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 46 First-year demand( Gaussian - Normal distribution
47 0.1 1 0.9 1 47 mean 15000
standard deviation 4500

simulation trials

direct
labour parts First-year variable
trial r.no cost/unit r.no cost/unit r.no demand revenue cost fixed cost

1 0.03954 43 0.876176 97.52351 0.00495 3393.115 844885.8 476812.5 1000000

2 0.395914 45 0.547953 90.95907 0.412515 14005.14 3487280 1904126 1000000
3 0.66681 45 0.033907 80.67815 0.23881 11804.39 2939293 1483554 1000000
4 0.460377 45 0.770522 95.41045 0.303171 12681.15 3157605 1780565 1000000
5 0.338312 45 0.391695 87.8339 0.217652 11489.34 2860845 1526174 1000000
6 0.439376 45 0.52974 90.59481 0.151612 10367.05 2581396 1405719 1000000
7 0.059823 43 0.942737 98.85473 0.308525 12749.84 3174711 1808626 1000000
8 0.659712 45 0.334206 86.68412 0.501461 15016.48 3739103 1977432 1000000
9 0.681809 45 0.573874 91.47747 0.903013 20845.1 5190430 2844887 1000000
10 0.166404 44 0.174156 83.48311 0.993013 26060.72 6489119 3322302 1000000
11 0.583148 45 0.468822 89.37645 0.827814 19255.04 4794504 2587423 1000000
12 0.818776 46 0.53552 90.7104 0.232124 11706.59 2914941 1600413 1000000
13 0.033089 43 0.089952 81.79903 0.449939 14433.83 3594025 1801329 1000000
14 0.236837 44 0.487783 89.75566 0.786357 18572.31 4624504 2484151 1000000
15 0.593707 45 0.177172 83.54344 0.199273 11201.01 2789052 1439817 1000000
16 0.649839 45 0.405899 88.11798 0.457994 14525.3 3616799 1933578 1000000
17 0.204657 44 0.430092 88.60184 0.083404 8778.604 2185872 1164059 1000000
18 0.929249 47 0.852182 97.04364 0.789787 18625.57 4637767 2682895 1000000
19 0.303582 45 0.231315 84.62629 0.096827 9150.694 2278523 1186171 1000000
20 0.687171 45 0.663483 93.26965 0.10076 9252.463 2303863 1279335 1000000
21 0.708663 46 0.874835 97.49671 0.412715 14007.45 3487855 2010023 1000000
22 0.646881 45 0.793594 95.87187 0.704793 17422.07 4338095 2454280 1000000
23 0.630355 45 0.572139 91.44278 0.851912 19701 4905550 2688060 1000000
24 0.01249 43 0.824973 96.49945 0.868321 20033.2 4988267 2794620 1000000
25 0.665607 45 0.041186 80.82373 0.78098 18489.78 4603955 2326453 1000000
26 0.536291 45 0.021316 80.42631 0.275065 12310.95 3065427 1544117 1000000
27 0.879602 46 0.505069 90.10137 0.362765 13420.15 3341617 1826500 1000000
28 0.820313 46 0.961683 99.23365 0.206337 11313.62 2817091 1643118 1000000
29 0.100431 44 0.930015 98.60029 0.120303 9719.361 2420121 1385984 1000000
30 0.463453 45 0.358916 87.17832 0.754918 18105.21 4508198 2393117 1000000
31 0.334147 45 0.647286 92.94572 0.114042 9576.113 2384452 1320984 1000000
32 0.536352 45 0.460015 89.2003 0.090261 8973.836 2234485 1204292 1000000
33 0.899668 46 0.716752 94.33504 0.190896 11064.31 2755013 1552710 1000000
34 0.251003 44 0.252728 85.05456 0.028804 6455.966 1607535 833171.8 1000000
35 0.273951 44 0.788002 95.76005 0.290542 12516.9 3116707 1749362 1000000
36 0.558096 45 0.934239 98.68478 0.965187 23164.53 5767969 3328391 1000000
37 0.782461 46 0.947579 98.95158 0.557681 15652.92 3897577 2268915 1000000
38 0.892929 46 0.055498 81.10995 0.574875 15849.6 3946551 2014642 1000000
39 0.970739 47 0.735168 94.70335 0.794553 18700.45 4656411 2649916 1000000
40 0.21842 44 0.200553 84.01106 0.049926 7594.919 1891135 972233.6 1000000
41 0.641787 45 0.705738 94.11476 0.795182 18710.41 4658892 2602894 1000000
42 0.972499 47 0.119656 82.39311 0.71194 17515.77 4361426 2266420 1000000
43 0.02449 43 0.377072 87.54145 0.383001 13660.76 3401530 1783296 1000000
44 0.070278 43 0.559662 91.19325 0.657968 16831.16 4190959 2258628 1000000
45 0.598255 45 0.043293 80.86586 0.331222 13035.56 3245855 1640732 1000000
46 0.915253 47 0.227451 84.54901 0.440298 14324.04 3566687 1884314 1000000
47 0.666369 45 0.901559 98.03118 0.273932 12295.66 3061620 1758663 1000000
48 0.145356 44 0.78458 95.6916 0.112521 9540.47 2375577 1332724 1000000
49 0.74846 46 0.419121 88.38242 0.41281 14008.55 3488129 1882503 1000000
50 0.46578 45 0.378164 87.56328 0.091025 8994.878 2239725 1192391 1000000
51 0.267179 44 0.270183 85.40366 0.194837 11129.05 2771134 1440140 1000000
52 0.314845 45 0.362434 87.24868 0.689384 17223.47 4288644 2277781 1000000
53 0.277689 44 0.318561 86.37121 0.770932 18338.64 4566321 2390831 1000000
54 0.13671 44 0.766767 95.33534 0.471724 14680.78 3655514 2045552 1000000
55 0.852229 46 0.128431 82.56862 0.50892 15100.63 3760056 1941467 1000000
56 0.676907 45 0.601011 92.02022 0.201288 11233.36 2797107 1539198 1000000
57 0.626395 45 0.355807 87.11614 0.246208 11910.87 2965808 1573619 1000000
58 0.235865 44 0.07901 81.58019 0.96168 22967.35 5718871 2884245 1000000
59 0.260472 44 0.517454 90.34908 0.98323 24565.07 6116702 3300294 1000000
60 0.275307 44 0.976682 99.53365 0.159534 10516.31 2618562 1509445 1000000
61 0.458673 45 0.982971 99.65942 0.219298 11514.45 2867097 1665673 1000000
62 0.928121 47 0.50167 90.0334 0.531214 15352.45 3822761 2103799 1000000
63 0.675414 45 0.810177 96.20354 0.396522 13819.38 3441026 1951346 1000000
64 0.51321 45 0.580948 91.61895 0.891583 20557.47 5118809 2808540 1000000
65 0.579005 45 0.665825 93.3165 0.372504 13536.47 3370581 1872317 1000000
66 0.289689 44 0.982503 99.65005 0.866249 19989.75 4977447 2871528 1000000
67 0.757022 46 0.761013 95.22026 0.140503 10148.72 2527031 1433205 1000000
68 0.323009 45 0.187628 83.75257 0.139278 10123.94 2520862 1303484 1000000
 69 0.838514 46 0.090864 81.81728 0.9506 22428.16 5584612 2866706 1000000
70 0.273486 44 0.511426 90.22851 0.496211 14957.26 3724357 2007690 1000000
71 0.957662 47 0.997646 99.95293 0.81897 19101.52 4756278 2807024 1000000
72 0.583477 45 0.522541 90.45081 0.018281 5592.227 1392464 757471.7 1000000
73 0.970107 47 0.435051 88.70102 0.644743 16670.24 4150890 2262169 1000000
74 0.46693 45 0.717988 94.35975 0.796737 18735.1 4665041 2610919 1000000
75 0.659859 45 0.454339 89.08678 0.019835 5742.773 1429951 770030 1000000
76 0.967295 47 0.476539 89.53078 0.606753 16218.9 4038506 2214379 1000000
77 0.852484 46 0.99884 99.9768 0.545834 15518.14 3864016 2265288 1000000
78 0.678399 45 0.072773 81.45546 0.67997 17104.26 4258961 2162927 1000000
79 0.786364 46 0.527352 90.54704 0.8186 19095.19 4754703 2607392 1000000
80 0.427228 45 0.362669 87.25337 0.338043 13119.86 3266844 1735145 1000000
81 0.398802 45 0.212248 84.24496 0.51741 15196.44 3783914 1964063 1000000
82 0.893282 46 0.093505 81.87011 0.833117 19349.51 4818027 2474223 1000000
83 0.206198 44 0.881197 97.62394 0.256755 12059.77 3002884 1707953 1000000
84 0.38783 45 0.804348 96.08696 0.11811 9669.809 2407782 1364284 1000000
85 0.003806 43 0.256586 85.13171 0.811595 18977.05 4725286 2431562 1000000
86 0.2704 44 0.657736 93.15472 0.638978 16600.77 4133593 2276875 1000000
87 0.707346 46 0.241277 84.82554 0.549715 15562.24 3874998 2035938 1000000
88 0.882168 46 0.498326 89.96652 0.350725 13274.86 3305440 1804936 1000000
89 0.330361 45 0.734622 94.69244 0.563237 15716.32 3913364 2195451 1000000
90 0.925544 47 0.302312 86.04625 0.546795 15529.06 3866736 2066083 1000000
91 0.302762 45 0.30386 86.07719 0.52752 15310.67 3812356 2006879 1000000
92 0.684899 45 0.543753 90.87506 0.727568 17724.64 4413434 2408336 1000000
93 0.009881 43 0.045839 80.91679 0.102043 9285.025 2311971 1150571 1000000
94 0.548188 45 0.364806 87.29612 0.770517 18332.48 4564787 2425316 1000000
95 0.943426 47 0.584612 91.69224 0.909966 21032.47 5237084 2917040 1000000
96 0.908665 47 0.821352 96.42704 0.071595 8411.944 2094574 1206500 1000000
97 0.603494 45 0.191798 83.83596 0.698859 17345.05 4318917 2234666 1000000
98 0.383134 45 0.723338 94.46677 0.199344 11202.15 2789336 1562328 1000000
99 0.8758 46 0.489494 89.78987 0.90131 20800.72 5179380 2824527 1000000
100 0.449918 45 0.37057 87.41139 0.359664 13382.89 3332339 1772047 1000000
101 0.50196 45 0.673457 93.46914 0.69959 17354.5 4321270 2403062 1000000
102 0.516029 45 0.748992 94.97984 0.763606 18230.78 4539465 2551942 1000000
103 0.099458 43 0.13886 82.77721 0.609928 16256.09 4047765 2044645 1000000
104 0.94176 47 0.888645 97.77289 0.691199 17246.63 4294411 2496844 1000000
105 0.116916 44 0.954718 99.09437 0.176104 10813.59 2692583 1547364 1000000
106 0.071754 43 0.16501 83.30021 0.975225 23837.23 5935470 3010647 1000000
107 0.411135 45 0.966861 99.33721 0.928449 21589.5 5375785 3116168 1000000
108 0.510543 45 0.115113 82.30226 0.377503 13595.8 3385354 1730776 1000000
109 0.400563 45 0.561825 91.23649 0.689927 17230.4 4290369 2347409 1000000
110 0.970528 47 0.344384 86.88768 0.571165 15807.03 3935951 2116367 1000000
111 0.614757 45 0.418906 88.37813 0.164751 10611.98 2642382 1415405 1000000
112 0.343899 45 0.370219 87.40438 0.632212 16519.73 4113413 2187285 1000000
113 0.889959 46 0.236715 84.7343 0.670694 16988.24 4230072 2220946 1000000
114 0.854191 46 0.696545 93.9309 0.999359 29490.41 7343112 4126620 1000000
115 0.036756 43 0.006423 80.12846 0.424362 14141.64 3521268 1741238 1000000
116 0.310136 45 0.689049 93.78098 0.92154 21369.79 5321079 2965721 1000000
117 0.605457 45 0.656904 93.13807 0.008267 4213.898 1049261 582099.8 1000000
118 0.418777 45 0.612475 92.24951 0.132165 9977.03 2484281 1369342 1000000
119 0.884371 46 0.844555 96.8911 0.105896 9381.061 2335884 1340470 1000000
120 0.520406 45 0.668718 93.37436 0.403181 13896.95 3460342 1922982 1000000
121 0.80351 46 0.264414 85.28828 0.486674 14849.66 3697564 1949586 1000000
122 0.276637 44 0.550078 91.00155 0.688787 17215.86 4286750 2324168 1000000
123 0.003189 43 0.662054 93.24107 0.57007 15794.48 3932827 2151857 1000000
124 0.61404 45 0.948473 98.96945 0.431138 14219.35 3540618 2047152 1000000
125 0.424974 45 0.787193 95.74387 0.350749 13275.15 3305513 1868396 1000000
126 0.654436 45 0.362502 87.25005 0.982981 24538.3 6110037 3245192 1000000
127 0.429963 45 0.690466 93.80931 0.129264 9915.553 2468973 1376371 1000000
128 0.969137 47 0.669196 93.38392 0.41298 14010.51 3488617 1966850 1000000
129 0.597592 45 0.456783 89.13566 0.507057 15079.61 3754822 2022713 1000000
130 0.542192 45 0.271893 85.43786 0.558334 15660.36 3899431 2042705 1000000
131 0.847435 46 0.900852 98.01704 0.93974 21986.66 5474679 3166454 1000000
132 0.420524 45 0.767504 95.35007 0.717831 17593.85 4380868 2469298 1000000
133 0.541154 45 0.8187 96.37401 0.523836 15269.02 3801987 2158643 1000000
134 0.078406 43 0.614719 92.29438 0.891026 20544 5115457 2779488 1000000
135 0.159202 44 0.6181 92.36199 0.436175 14276.96 3554964 1946835 1000000
136 0.334241 45 0.813284 96.26568 0.607216 16224.32 4039855 2291939 1000000
137 0.416953 45 0.516535 90.3307 0.682985 17142.28 4268427 2319876 1000000
138 0.693927 45 0.309644 86.19288 0.963296 23056.29 5741015 3024821 1000000
139 0.888703 46 0.848632 96.97264 0.444951 14377.08 3579892 2055529 1000000
140 0.456097 45 0.234403 84.68806 0.712645 17525.08 4363744 2272793 1000000
141 0.366425 45 0.482188 89.64377 0.854263 19747.03 4917011 2658815 1000000
142 0.250681 44 0.811557 96.23114 0.536535 15412.69 3837759 2161339 1000000
143 0.903938 47 0.04936 80.9872 0.921987 21383.55 5324505 2736821 1000000
144 0.208471 44 0.027483 80.54966 0.007174 3982.056 991532 495963.8 1000000
145 0.739294 46 0.081645 81.6329 0.311647 12789.66 3184624 1632381 1000000
146 0.088241 43 0.568691 91.37382 0.393333 13782.1 3431744 1851954 1000000
147 0.710048 46 0.086717 81.73434 0.752627 18072.51 4500055 2308480 1000000
148 0.468611 45 0.406299 88.12598 0.927061 21544.12 5364487 2868083 1000000
149 0.17346 44 0.054957 81.09915 0.1018 9278.861 2310436 1160778 1000000
150 0.779218 46 0.825491 96.50982 0.00943 4432.732 1103750 631707.9 1000000
151 0.764826 46 0.256254 85.12509 0.627103 16458.85 4098254 2158168 1000000
152 0.499492 45 0.08524 81.7048 0.820049 19119.98 4760876 2422594 1000000
153 0.779942 46 0.488301 89.76602 0.339223 13134.37 3270458 1783201 1000000
154 0.940032 47 0.963806 99.27612 0.403812 13904.28 3462167 2033865 1000000
155 0.622603 45 0.14447 82.88939 0.981601 24396.02 6074609 3119992 1000000
156 0.668813 45 0.552843 91.05686 0.837458 19428.29 4837645 2643352 1000000
157 0.039323 43 0.341786 86.83571 0.339263 13134.86 3270580 1705374 1000000
158 0.60127 45 0.742512 94.85025 0.660977 16868.09 4200155 2359007 1000000
159 0.081549 43 0.109191 82.18382 0.435178 14265.58 3552129 1785819 1000000
160 0.632042 45 0.25666 85.1332 0.727611 17725.22 4413580 2306640 1000000
161 0.544468 45 0.238706 84.77412 0.527108 15306.01 3811196 1986324 1000000
162 0.471931 45 0.5836 91.67201 0.048374 7526.266 1874040 1028630 1000000
163 0.545383 45 0.881101 97.62202 0.02182 5921.1 1474354 844479.2 1000000
164 0.391199 45 0.552918 91.05837 0.512925 15145.81 3771308 2060715 1000000
165 0.782805 46 0.167908 83.35816 0.06806 8293.212 2065010 1072795 1000000
166 0.727176 46 0.975391 99.50783 0.141038 10159.49 2529712 1478285 1000000
167 0.010975 43 0.362559 87.25119 0.458233 14528.02 3617476 1892291 1000000
168 0.847588 46 0.084066 81.68131 0.119058 9691.321 2413139 1237401 1000000
169 0.229939 44 0.016265 80.3253 0.489665 14883.41 3705970 1850385 1000000
170 0.574282 45 0.841565 96.83129 0.638278 16592.37 4131499 2353317 1000000
171 0.514521 45 0.029088 80.58177 0.215123 11450.53 2851182 1437978 1000000
172 0.726276 46 0.642413 92.84825 0.735219 17829.04 4439430 2475530 1000000
173 0.086731 43 0.931512 98.63025 0.418737 14076.94 3505157 1993720 1000000
174 0.47252 45 0.964523 99.29046 0.678669 17087.92 4254891 2465623 1000000
175 0.84375 46 0.935823 98.71646 0.565622 15743.57 3920149 2278354 1000000
176 0.645362 45 0.528542 90.57084 0.159218 10510.45 2617101 1424910 1000000
177 0.90265 47 0.597955 91.95909 0.59762 16112.36 4011979 2238959 1000000
178 0.656692 45 0.548606 90.97213 0.404792 13915.67 3465003 1892144 1000000
179 0.075675 43 0.775407 95.50813 0.830492 19302.5 4806323 2673553 1000000
180 0.659855 45 0.799019 95.98039 0.325012 12958.22 3226596 1826854 1000000
181 0.435201 45 0.163827 83.27653 0.389549 13737.77 3420706 1762234 1000000
182 0.714712 46 0.153271 83.06541 0.803749 18847.91 4693129 2432613 1000000
183 0.149359 44 0.560243 91.20487 0.386243 13698.93 3411034 1852163 1000000
184 0.995944 47 0.90999 98.19979 0.82717 19243.68 4791677 2794179 1000000
185 0.077903 43 0.386787 87.73573 0.630919 16504.3 4109570 2157701 1000000
186 0.140071 44 0.20481 84.0962 0.337168 13109.07 3264160 1679223 1000000
187 0.977227 47 0.201367 84.02733 0.456442 14507.69 3612416 1900904 1000000
188 0.344507 45 0.340471 86.80942 0.435049 14264.1 3551760 1880142 1000000
189 0.624033 45 0.976918 99.53837 0.466774 14624.78 3641570 2113842 1000000
190 0.257874 44 0.129322 82.58644 0.028529 6437.133 1602846 814853.8 1000000
191 0.309177 45 0.255344 85.10688 0.782499 18512.97 4609730 2408665 1000000
192 0.018932 43 0.880375 97.6075 0.328858 13006.2 3238543 1828769 1000000
193 0.017315 43 0.050889 81.01778 0.965479 23181.66 5772234 2874939 1000000
194 0.106292 44 0.826442 96.52885 0.625959 16445.26 4094870 2311033 1000000
195 0.550251 45 0.855391 97.10781 0.922977 21414.25 5332147 3043132 1000000
196 0.560323 45 0.081238 81.62475 0.863295 19928.59 4962218 2523452 1000000
197 0.29211 44 0.517278 90.34556 0.905711 20916.59 5208232 2810052 1000000
198 0.232399 44 0.594408 91.88815 0.359198 13377.29 3330945 1817815 1000000
199 0.134461 44 0.822898 96.45795 0.653186 16772.72 4176407 2355862 1000000
200 0.312688 45 0.654471 93.08942 0.219266 11513.97 2866979 1589958 1000000
201 0.732187 46 0.417249 88.34498 0.27431 12300.76 3062890 1652546 1000000
202 0.493101 45 0.470834 89.41668 0.507201 15081.22 3755225 2027168 1000000
203 0.58148 45 0.14401 82.8802 0.190987 11065.81 2755386 1415098 1000000
204 0.633037 45 0.29182 85.8364 0.867282 20011.36 4982829 2618214 1000000
205 0.837561 46 0.025629 80.51257 0.093461 9061.159 2256229 1146351 1000000
206 0.559686 45 0.20652 84.13041 0.964601 23130.45 5759482 2986844 1000000
207 0.253442 44 0.287622 85.75244 0.473052 14695.8 3659254 1906816 1000000
208 0.118266 44 0.873705 97.47409 0.27118 12258.38 3052337 1734244 1000000
209 0.09021 43 0.740052 94.80105 0.655175 16796.98 4182449 2314642 1000000
210 0.224481 44 0.317759 86.35518 0.335331 13086.42 3258519 1705883 1000000
211 0.834417 46 0.430004 88.60009 0.609798 16254.56 4047386 2187865 1000000
212 0.60498 45 0.853744 97.07488 0.900711 20785.25 5175528 2953062 1000000
213 0.174658 44 0.702159 94.04317 0.861077 19883.27 4950935 2744750 1000000
214 0.405316 45 0.356295 87.1259 0.861652 19894.97 4953847 2628641 1000000
215 0.787199 46 0.181348 83.62697 0.948018 22316.68 5556853 2892843 1000000
216 0.220073 44 0.624543 92.49085 0.55139 15581.28 3879738 2126702 1000000
217 0.531744 45 0.867563 97.35126 0.970305 23483.81 5847468 3342949 1000000
218 0.244817 44 0.395713 87.91426 0.708294 17467.83 4349490 2304256 1000000
219 0.403363 45 0.613878 92.27756 0.299116 12628.75 3144560 1733644 1000000
220 0.200117 44 0.504092 90.08184 0.736889 17852.03 4445156 2393633 1000000
221 0.980832 47 0.696676 93.93352 0.482944 14807.56 3687082 2086881 1000000
222 0.041183 43 0.621706 92.43411 0.252876 12005.41 2989346 1625941 1000000
223 0.155988 44 0.223115 84.46231 0.362029 13411.31 3339417 1722848 1000000
224 0.151714 44 0.483555 89.67111 0.730267 17761.3 4422564 2374173 1000000
225 0.117076 44 0.607865 92.1573 0.801062 18804.4 4682294 2560356 1000000
226 0.408209 45 0.192315 83.84631 0.709038 17477.6 4351922 2251924 1000000
227 0.883207 46 0.401391 88.02783 0.568145 15772.44 3927337 2113945 1000000
228 0.607431 45 0.431888 88.63776 0.888137 20475.05 5098288 2736240 1000000
229 0.423537 45 0.233794 84.67588 0.294193 12564.71 3128613 1629340 1000000
230 0.223144 44 0.779423 95.58847 0.898566 20730.41 5161871 2893726 1000000
231 0.507287 45 0.965327 99.30653 0.547964 15542.33 3870041 2242860 1000000
232 0.590716 45 0.714653 94.29306 0.03432 6806.452 1694806 948091.5 1000000
233 0.151153 44 0.709479 94.18958 0.783027 18521.06 4611744 2559418 1000000
234 0.755162 46 0.549756 90.99512 0.140913 10156.99 2529090 1391458 1000000
235 0.232638 44 0.174174 83.48349 0.476749 14737.59 3669659 1878799 1000000
236 0.383935 45 0.61634 92.3268 0.561886 15700.89 3909521 2156152 1000000
237 0.241572 44 0.756395 95.1279 0.495635 14950.77 3722741 2080069 1000000
238 0.256279 44 0.298913 85.97826 0.171927 10740.4 2674360 1396019 1000000
239 0.547226 45 0.464033 89.28066 0.642565 16643.96 4144346 2234962 1000000
240 0.918252 47 0.286013 85.72027 0.125398 9832.117 2448197 1304921 1000000
241 0.382224 45 0.623154 92.46308 0.954636 22612.08 5630408 3108326 1000000
242 0.458405 45 0.910215 98.20429 0.775685 18409.65 4584002 2636341 1000000
243 0.812738 46 0.475545 89.5109 0.189032 11033.39 2747314 1495144 1000000
244 0.690069 45 0.617712 92.35424 0.674454 17035.1 4241740 2339843 1000000
245 0.892623 46 0.257899 85.15798 0.597928 16115.94 4012869 2113734 1000000
246 0.318203 45 0.353653 87.07306 0.491577 14904.99 3711342 1968547 1000000
247 0.329009 45 0.469378 89.38756 0.491399 14902.97 3710841 2002774 1000000
248 0.649893 45 0.465485 89.30969 0.629758 16490.45 4106123 2214828 1000000
249 0.193851 44 0.326994 86.53988 0.983328 24575.59 6119321 3208094 1000000
250 0.357514 45 0.612217 92.24435 0.664857 16915.9 4212059 2321612 1000000
251 0.84129 46 0.06059 81.21179 0.766811 18277.73 4551156 2325143 1000000
252 0.944233 47 0.122725 82.4545 0.469358 14654.02 3648851 1897029 1000000
253 0.754518 46 0.710027 94.20054 0.06324 8123.413 2022730 1138907 1000000
254 0.962097 47 0.132933 82.65867 0.372629 13537.96 3370953 1755314 1000000
255 0.611447 45 0.577784 91.55569 0.006946 3929.693 978493.7 536622 1000000
256 0.618913 45 0.709359 94.18719 0.644588 16668.38 4150426 2320025 1000000
257 0.146947 44 0.125027 82.50054 0.875251 20182.06 5025333 2553041 1000000
258 0.335991 45 0.150907 83.01815 0.841095 19495.36 4854345 2495760 1000000
259 0.498593 45 0.72317 94.46339 0.088985 8938.344 2225648 1246572 1000000
260 0.643397 45 0.974469 99.48939 0.777785 18441.3 4591883 2664572 1000000
261 0.445606 45 0.454342 89.08684 0.200267 11216.99 2793030 1504050 1000000
262 0.604519 45 0.413771 88.27541 0.993209 26106.61 6500546 3479369 1000000
263 0.985117 47 0.06818 81.3636 0.921906 21381.04 5323880 2744548 1000000
264 0.523663 45 0.390948 87.81896 0.923877 21442.38 5339153 2847955 1000000
265 0.214692 44 0.911376 98.22751 0.651573 16753.07 4171514 2382748 1000000
266 0.138659 44 0.152858 83.05716 0.754944 18105.59 4508291 2300445 1000000
267 0.819941 46 0.393705 87.8741 0.415203 14036.19 3495011 1879082 1000000
268 0.323138 45 0.53666 90.7332 0.469192 14652.14 3648383 1988782 1000000
269 0.899478 46 0.679066 93.58132 0.198887 11194.78 2787501 1562582 1000000
270 0.85135 46 0.821507 96.43015 0.514411 15162.59 3775484 2159609 1000000
271 0.715659 46 0.096575 81.93151 0.109598 9470.983 2358275 1211637 1000000
272 0.676022 45 0.47334 89.46679 0.145185 10242.1 2550283 1377223 1000000
273 0.699228 45 0.288805 85.77609 0.218616 11504.06 2864512 1504457 1000000
274 0.408019 45 0.127409 82.54817 0.165894 10632.67 2647535 1356178 1000000
275 0.674766 45 0.916513 98.33026 0.815559 19043.57 4741848 2729519 1000000
276 0.815079 46 0.196396 83.92792 0.755655 18115.77 4510826 2353744 1000000
277 0.378578 45 0.700251 94.00502 0.989053 25314.84 6303395 3518890 1000000
278 0.796175 46 0.945587 98.91175 0.346931 13228.72 3293950 1916996 1000000
279 0.889591 46 0.806541 96.13082 0.011921 4831.529 1203051 686709.2 1000000
280 0.207972 44 0.224379 84.48758 0.028644 6445.044 1604816 828108.2 1000000
281 0.331629 45 0.162346 83.24693 0.819054 19102.94 4756633 2449894 1000000
282 0.187522 44 0.471934 89.43868 0.941046 22036.27 5487030 2940490 1000000
283 0.589252 45 0.396135 87.92271 0.553665 15607.16 3886184 2074546 1000000
284 0.824122 46 0.27539 85.50779 0.606348 16214.16 4037326 2132289 1000000
285 0.563291 45 0.284177 85.68355 0.952416 22509.35 5604827 2941601 1000000
286 0.182945 44 0.280241 85.60483 0.829536 19285.49 4802088 2499493 1000000
287 0.915197 47 0.275616 85.51232 0.218777 11506.51 2865120 1524754 1000000
288 0.645293 45 0.071814 81.43628 0.456422 14507.47 3612359 1834270 1000000
289 0.696562 45 0.464043 89.28085 0.451229 14448.49 3597674 1940155 1000000
290 0.073083 43 0.310773 86.21546 0.711776 17513.61 4360889 2263029 1000000
291 0.201919 44 0.637914 92.75829 0.608632 16240.9 4043985 2221078 1000000
292 0.614748 45 0.95972 99.19441 0.533801 15381.73 3830050 2217959 1000000
293 0.457419 45 0.303482 86.06965 0.121026 9735.571 2424157 1276038 1000000
294 0.809699 46 0.313167 86.26335 0.651033 16746.5 4169879 2214948 1000000
295 0.787898 46 0.894328 97.88655 0.747201 17995.68 4480924 2589336 1000000
296 0.399655 45 0.84298 96.85959 0.666071 16930.91 4215796 2401812 1000000
297 0.596917 45 0.150817 83.01635 0.744665 17960.08 4472059 2299183 1000000
298 0.117675 44 0.694996 93.89991 0.687952 17205.25 4284106 2372602 1000000
299 0.757638 46 0.389342 87.78683 0.283038 12417.72 3092011 1661327 1000000
300 0.10234 44 0.237109 84.74217 0.292814 12546.68 3124123 1615287 1000000
 summary statistics
DL FY
cost/unit PC/unit demand Revenue VC total FC
Gaussian - Normal distribution) minimum 43 80.12846 3393.115 844885.8 476812.5 1000000
maximum 47 99.9768 29490.41 7343112 4126620 1000000
mean 44.99333 89.92939 15256.01 3798746 2057391 1000000
median 45 89.76084 15308.34 3811776 2063399 1000000
s.d. 1.021486 5.610901 4483.903 1116492 607436.4 0

profit Probability of loss

-631927
583154.3
455739.4
377040
334671.6
175677.6
366085.5
761671.2
1345543
2166818
1207081
314528.4
792696.3
1140353
349235.4
683220.6
21813.34
954872.2
92352.21
24528.44
477832
883815.7
1217490
 1193646
1277502
521309.8
515116.2
173972.9
34137.17
1115081
63468.38
30193.71
202302.9
-225636
367345
1439578
628661.5
931908.6
1006495
-81098.85
1055998
1095007
618234.3
932331.1
605122.7
682372.9
302956.9
42853.57
605626.2
47334.13
330994
1010863
1175491
609962.7
818589.4
257909.2
392188.9
1834626
1816408
109117.3
201424
718962
489680.4
1310270
498263.9
1105919
93826.18
217378.2
 1717906
716666.6
949254
-365007
888721.5
1054121
-340079
824127
598728.2
1096034
1147311
531698.9
819850.5
1343804
294931
43498.49
1293724
856718.3
839059.3
500503.4
717912.7
800652.7
805476.8
1005098
161400.8
1139471
1320044
-111926
1084251
227008
1354852
560292.3
918207.7
987522.7
1003120
797566.3
145219.9
1924823
1259617
654578
942960.2
819583.9
226976.4
926128.4
1009126
 2216492
780029.9
1355358
-532839
114938.1
-4585.933
537359.5
747978.6
962581.6
780969.1
493466.2
437116.8
1864846
92601.59
521766.7
732109.1
856726.3
1308225
911570.3
643343.9
1335969
608128.6
747915.9
948550.5
1716195
524363.7
1090951
1258196
676420.3
1587684
-504432
552243.5
579789.8
1191575
1496404
149658.8
-527958
940085.6
1338282
487256.9
428301.9
1954617
1194292
565206
841148.1
 766309.3
1106940
824872.6
-154590
-370125
710592.8
-7784.853
51427.47
725184.7
175738.4
855584.9
778182.6
413204.3
963899.4
511437.3
789267.9
641795.2
192191.2
773019.1
572858.9
1132769
399741.4
658471.7
1260516
558871.9
997498.3
951868.4
584936.9
711511.4
671617.7
527728.5
-212008
1201065
409774
1897296
783836.2
1289016
1438766
1398180
513130
820545.2
277021.4
410344.2
728056.8
340288.3
 1364614
109878.1
1772637
752438.4
318093.7
867807
552635.9
859520.4
1222466
1206185
1325207
1664010
753036.4
1504518
1045234
410915.1
1051522
600200.5
363404.5
616568.9
1048391
1121939
1099998
813391.4
1362048
499273.1
1268146
627180.9
-253285
1052327
137632.3
790860.2
753368.1
642672
278341.5
909384.2
143275.9
1522082
947661.7
252169.5
901896.7
899135.1
742794.6
708066.3
891295.1
 1911227
890447.4
1226012
751822.1
-116177
615638.5
-558128
830401.4
1472291
1358585
-20924.1
927311.4
288979.5
2021177
1579332
1491198
788766.9
1207847
615928.6
659601.1
224918.2
615874.5
146637.7
173060.8
360055.3
291357.4
1012329
1157082
1784505
376954
-483658
-223292
1306739
1546540
811637.4
905037.6
1663226
1302595
340366.4
778089.1
657518.3
1097860
822906.8
612091.1
148119.4
954930.5
891587.9
813984.3
1172876
911504.4
430684.4
508836.4
Dynamic Constant

Profit calc profit

-631927 -535858
2216492 2477196
741355 682434.7
753202.3 613982.3
523667 537017

7% 9%
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Best case worst case base case
Changing Cells:
$G$2 c1 43 47 45
$G$3 c2 80 100 90
$G$4 x 28500 1500 15000
Result Cells:
$I$3 #VALUE! 2591000 -847000 710000
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
 Summary Statistics dynamic
Gross profit/unit 50 Mean Profit 4497.452
Holding cost/unit 15 St dev 1356.575
Shortage cost/unit 30 Min profit 539.9967
Max profit 7000
Replenishment level 140 Service Level % 100%

Demand( Normal distribution)

Mean 100
Std deviation 20

Simulation

Holding Shortage
Month R no. Demand Sales G.Profit cost cost Net Profit
1 0.020789 59.24559 59.24559 2962.279 1211.316 0 1750.963
2 0.08836 72.98157 72.98157 3649.078 1005.276 0 2643.802
3 0.185302 82.09312 82.09312 4104.656 868.6032 0 3236.053
4 0.477129 98.85277 98.85277 4942.638 617.2085 0 4325.43
5 0.238678 85.78874 85.78874 4289.437 813.1689 0 3476.268
6 0.986944 144.4908 140 7000 0 0 7000
7 0.864498 122.0151 122.0151 6100.754 269.7739 0 5830.98
8 0.372497 93.49505 93.49505 4674.753 697.5742 0 3977.178
9 0.555917 102.8125 102.8125 5140.624 557.8127 0 4582.812
10 0.797646 116.6649 116.6649 5833.243 350.0272 0 5483.215
11 0.182061 81.8492 81.8492 4092.46 872.2619 0 3220.198
12 0.048229 66.75462 66.75462 3337.731 1098.681 0 2239.051
13 0.806403 117.2944 117.2944 5864.719 340.5843 0 5524.135
14 0.35176 92.38851 92.38851 4619.426 714.1723 0 3905.253
15 0.466692 98.32823 98.32823 4916.412 625.0765 0 4291.335
16 0.860753 121.6742 121.6742 6083.709 274.8872 0 5808.822
17 0.753069 113.6836 113.6836 5684.181 394.7458 0 5289.435
18 0.617863 105.9974 105.9974 5299.872 510.0383 0 4789.834
19 0.996421 153.7882 140 7000 0 0 7000
20 0.902954 125.9714 125.9714 6298.569 210.4294 0 6088.139
21 0.715274 111.3771 111.3771 5568.857 429.3428 0 5139.514
22 0.468024 98.39524 98.39524 4919.762 624.0714 0 4295.691
23 0.563661 103.2052 103.2052 5160.258 551.9226 0 4608.335
24 0.749458 113.4557 113.4557 5672.785 398.1644 0 5274.621
25 0.693933 110.1406 110.1406 5507.03 447.8911 0 5059.138
26 0.782724 115.6286 115.6286 5781.428 365.5717 0 5415.856
27 0.25216 86.64581 86.64581 4332.291 800.3128 0 3531.978
28 0.077201 71.51689 71.51689 3575.844 1027.247 0 2548.598
29 0.835982 119.5616 119.5616 5978.078 306.5766 0 5671.502
30 0.763247 114.3357 114.3357 5716.787 384.964 0 5331.823
31 0.218822 84.47646 84.47646 4223.823 832.8531 0 3390.97
32 0.681368 109.4305 109.4305 5471.526 458.5421 0 5012.984
33 0.67641 109.1537 109.1537 5457.684 462.6947 0 4994.99
34 0.290666 88.97117 88.97117 4448.558 765.4325 0 3683.126
35 0.981025 141.5078 140 7000 0 0 7000
36 0.461071 98.04526 98.04526 4902.263 629.3211 0 4272.942
37 0.474946 98.74315 98.74315 4937.157 618.8528 0 4318.305
38 0.28599 88.69725 88.69725 4434.862 769.5413 0 3665.321
39 0.432008 96.57471 96.57471 4828.736 651.3793 0 4177.356
40 0.223874 84.81651 84.81651 4240.826 827.7523 0 3413.073
41 0.024507 60.63073 60.63073 3031.536 1190.539 0 1840.997
42 0.952883 133.4694 133.4694 6673.472 97.95848 0 6575.513
43 0.648166 107.6075 107.6075 5380.374 485.8878 0 4894.486
44 0.971067 137.9342 137.9342 6896.709 30.98734 0 6865.722
45 0.93304 129.9765 129.9765 6498.823 150.3532 0 6348.47
46 0.949252 132.753 132.753 6637.648 108.7055 0 6528.943
47 0.715372 111.3829 111.3829 5569.147 429.2559 0 5139.891
48 0.514551 100.7296 100.7296 5036.482 589.0555 0 4447.426
49 0.435433 96.74881 96.74881 4837.441 648.7678 0 4188.673
50 0.083935 72.4184 72.4184 3620.92 1013.724 0 2607.196
51 0.998695 160.2037 140 7000 0 0 7000
52 0.44806 97.38871 97.38871 4869.436 639.1693 0 4230.266
53 0.488097 99.4032 99.4032 4970.16 608.9521 0 4361.208
54 0.177543 81.50465 81.50465 4075.232 877.4303 0 3197.802
55 0.671432 108.8774 108.8774 5443.87 466.8389 0 4977.032
56 0.661154 108.3123 108.3123 5415.616 475.3153 0 4940.3
57 0.272387 87.88778 87.88778 4394.389 781.6833 0 3612.706
58 0.96803 137.052 137.052 6852.6 44.21986 0 6808.381
59 0.420895 96.0079 96.0079 4800.395 659.8815 0 4140.513
60 0.414435 95.677 95.677 4783.85 664.845 0 4119.005
61 0.549407 102.4833 102.4833 5124.165 562.7506 0 4561.414
62 0.435376 96.74595 96.74595 4837.298 648.8107 0 4188.487
63 0.729408 112.2204 112.2204 5611.022 416.6934 0 5194.329
64 0.373839 93.56596 93.56596 4678.298 696.5105 0 3981.788
65 0.244034 86.1323 86.1323 4306.615 808.0156 0 3498.599
66 0.992771 148.9136 140 7000 0 0 7000
67 0.480211 99.0075 99.0075 4950.375 614.8875 0 4335.487
68 0.382541 94.02372 94.02372 4701.186 689.6442 0 4011.542
69 0.299229 89.46761 89.46761 4473.381 757.9858 0 3715.395
70 0.08917 73.0823 73.0823 3654.115 1003.765 0 2650.35
71 0.540316 102.0246 102.0246 5101.23 569.631 0 4531.599
72 0.00933 52.95528 52.95528 2647.764 1305.671 0 1342.093
73 0.564374 103.2413 103.2413 5162.067 551.3798 0 4610.688
 74 0.040263 65.04708 65.04708 3252.354 1124.294 0 2128.06
75 0.97424 138.9424 138.9424 6947.121 15.86379 0 6931.257
76 0.093058 73.55687 73.55687 3677.844 996.6469 0 2681.197
77 0.564338 103.2396 103.2396 5161.978 551.4065 0 4610.572
78 0.677701 109.2256 109.2256 5461.28 461.6161 0 4999.664
79 0.386128 94.21151 94.21151 4710.576 686.8273 0 4023.748
80 0.805488 117.2277 117.2277 5861.387 341.5838 0 5519.803
81 0.563983 103.2215 103.2215 5161.076 551.6772 0 4609.399
82 0.598408 104.9846 104.9846 5249.229 525.2312 0 4723.998
83 0.865639 122.1202 122.1202 6106.01 268.197 0 5837.813
84 0.512282 100.6158 100.6158 5030.79 590.7629 0 4440.027
85 0.540619 102.0398 102.0398 5101.992 569.4023 0 4532.59
86 0.50949 100.4758 100.4758 5023.79 592.8631 0 4430.926
87 0.337204 91.59787 91.59787 4579.894 726.0319 0 3853.862
88 0.1214 76.63963 76.63963 3831.981 950.4056 0 2881.576
89 0.876646 123.1676 123.1676 6158.382 252.4855 0 5905.896
90 0.993599 149.7843 140 7000 0 0 7000
91 0.172243 81.09326 81.09326 4054.663 883.601 0 3171.062
92 0.800452 116.8647 116.8647 5843.237 347.0289 0 5496.208
93 0.580378 104.0572 104.0572 5202.861 539.1416 0 4663.72
94 0.313966 90.30723 90.30723 4515.361 745.3916 0 3769.97
95 0.039626 64.89918 64.89918 3244.959 1126.512 0 2118.447
96 0.078236 71.6593 71.6593 3582.965 1025.111 0 2557.854
97 0.687386 109.7691 109.7691 5488.454 453.4639 0 5034.99
98 0.249016 86.44824 86.44824 4322.412 803.2765 0 3519.135
99 0.862333 121.8172 121.8172 6090.86 272.7421 0 5818.117
100 0.181093 81.77582 81.77582 4088.791 873.3627 0 3215.428
101 0.250507 86.54211 86.54211 4327.105 801.8684 0 3525.237
102 0.095168 73.8083 73.8083 3690.415 992.8755 0 2697.54
103 0.754283 113.7606 113.7606 5688.029 393.5913 0 5294.438
104 0.803391 117.0759 117.0759 5853.795 343.8615 0 5509.934
105 0.053836 67.82517 67.82517 3391.259 1082.622 0 2308.636
106 0.766008 114.5153 114.5153 5725.763 382.2711 0 5343.492
107 0.942847 131.5827 131.5827 6579.133 126.2601 0 6452.873
108 0.465192 98.25274 98.25274 4912.637 626.2088 0 4286.428
109 0.066526 69.95647 69.95647 3497.823 1050.653 0 2447.17
110 0.648235 107.6112 107.6112 5380.56 485.832 0 4894.728
111 0.422596 96.09485 96.09485 4804.742 658.5773 0 4146.165
112 0.905297 126.2468 126.2468 6312.338 206.2986 0 6106.039
113 0.565432 103.2951 103.2951 5164.756 550.5731 0 4614.183
114 0.533622 101.6876 101.6876 5084.379 574.6864 0 4509.692
115 0.623075 106.2713 106.2713 5313.567 505.9299 0 4807.637
116 0.09476 73.75994 73.75994 3687.997 993.6009 0 2694.396
117 0.104097 74.82905 74.82905 3741.452 977.5643 0 2763.888
118 0.019576 58.74814 58.74814 2937.407 1218.778 0 1718.629
119 0.840583 119.9372 119.9372 5996.858 300.9427 0 5695.915
120 0.09699 74.02209 74.02209 3701.104 989.6687 0 2711.436
121 0.371918 93.46444 93.46444 4673.222 698.0333 0 3975.189
122 0.392836 94.56129 94.56129 4728.065 681.5806 0 4046.484
123 0.571619 103.6099 103.6099 5180.497 545.851 0 4634.645
124 0.702443 110.6288 110.6288 5531.441 440.5677 0 5090.873
125 0.270961 87.80182 87.80182 4390.091 782.9727 0 3607.118
126 0.15111 79.36627 79.36627 3968.314 909.5059 0 3058.808
127 0.697056 110.319 110.319 5515.951 445.2146 0 5070.737
128 0.267773 87.60873 87.60873 4380.436 785.8691 0 3594.567
129 0.380562 93.91989 93.91989 4695.994 691.2017 0 4004.793
130 0.940416 131.1655 131.1655 6558.276 132.5171 0 6425.759
131 0.793474 116.3707 116.3707 5818.534 354.4399 0 5464.094
132 0.336378 91.55263 91.55263 4577.631 726.7106 0 3850.921
133 0.655207 107.9883 107.9883 5399.416 480.1751 0 4919.241
134 0.842557 120.1004 120.1004 6005.021 298.4937 0 5706.527
135 0.764045 114.3875 114.3875 5719.374 384.1878 0 5335.186
136 0.930899 129.6504 129.6504 6482.519 155.2443 0 6327.275
137 0.09203 73.43283 73.43283 3671.641 998.5076 0 2673.134
138 0.151122 79.36735 79.36735 3968.368 909.4897 0 3058.878
139 0.267305 87.58032 87.58032 4379.016 786.2953 0 3592.721
140 0.877145 123.2166 123.2166 6160.832 251.7503 0 5909.082
141 0.003402 45.87389 45.87389 2293.694 1411.892 0 881.8026
142 0.001493 40.61533 40.61533 2030.767 1490.77 0 539.9967
143 0.542595 102.1395 102.1395 5106.973 567.9082 0 4539.065
144 0.031297 62.75883 62.75883 3137.941 1158.618 0 1979.324
145 0.818283 118.1768 118.1768 5908.84 327.3479 0 5581.492
146 0.692725 110.0718 110.0718 5503.589 448.9232 0 5054.666
147 0.921767 128.3411 128.3411 6417.055 174.8834 0 6242.172
148 0.746109 113.2459 113.2459 5662.294 401.3119 0 5260.982
149 0.922507 128.4428 128.4428 6422.138 173.3585 0 6248.78
150 0.82857 118.9706 118.9706 5948.529 315.4413 0 5633.088
151 0.226951 85.02146 85.02146 4251.073 824.6781 0 3426.395
152 0.17263 81.12351 81.12351 4056.176 883.1473 0 3173.028
153 0.899819 125.6104 125.6104 6280.519 215.8442 0 6064.675
154 0.408408 95.36718 95.36718 4768.359 669.4923 0 4098.867
155 0.569964 103.5256 103.5256 5176.282 547.1154 0 4629.167
156 0.767463 114.6103 114.6103 5730.517 380.845 0 5349.672
157 0.058874 68.714 68.714 3435.7 1069.29 0 2366.41
158 0.439873 96.97418 96.97418 4848.709 645.3873 0 4203.322
159 0.917163 127.7248 127.7248 6386.241 184.1278 0 6202.113
160 0.987182 144.6338 140 7000 0 0 7000
161 0.06536 69.7747 69.7747 3488.735 1053.38 0 2435.355
162 0.218842 84.47782 84.47782 4223.891 832.8327 0 3391.058
163 0.610642 105.6199 105.6199 5280.993 515.7021 0 4765.291
164 0.568607 103.4566 103.4566 5172.828 548.1515 0 4624.677
165 0.495063 99.75251 99.75251 4987.626 603.7123 0 4383.913
166 0.348961 92.23746 92.23746 4611.873 716.4381 0 3895.435
167 0.539521 101.9845 101.9845 5099.227 570.2318 0 4528.996
168 0.480688 99.03147 99.03147 4951.574 614.5279 0 4337.046
169 0.252629 86.67518 86.67518 4333.759 799.8723 0 3533.887
170 0.091237 73.33642 73.33642 3666.821 999.9537 0 2666.867
171 0.686791 109.7355 109.7355 5486.774 453.9679 0 5032.806
172 0.690572 109.9494 109.9494 5497.472 450.7583 0 5046.714
173 0.425092 96.2223 96.2223 4811.115 656.6655 0 4154.45
174 0.63954 107.1446 107.1446 5357.229 492.8314 0 4864.397
175 0.422021 96.06549 96.06549 4803.275 659.0176 0 4144.257
176 0.99279 148.933 140 7000 0 0 7000
177 0.086693 72.77187 72.77187 3638.594 1008.422 0 2630.172
178 0.941239 131.3051 131.3051 6565.257 130.4229 0 6434.834
179 0.958732 134.7231 134.7231 6736.157 79.15294 0 6657.004
180 0.30055 89.54364 89.54364 4477.182 756.8454 0 3720.337
181 0.983085 142.442 140 7000 0 0 7000
182 0.192566 82.63039 82.63039 4131.519 860.5442 0 3270.975
183 0.275786 88.09186 88.09186 4404.593 778.622 0 3625.971
184 0.701071 110.5497 110.5497 5527.484 441.7549 0 5085.729
185 0.415942 95.75426 95.75426 4787.713 663.6861 0 4124.027
186 0.398541 94.85748 94.85748 4742.874 677.1378 0 4065.736
187 0.667158 108.6416 108.6416 5432.08 470.376 0 4961.704
188 0.530667 101.5389 101.5389 5076.945 576.9164 0 4500.029
189 0.605445 105.3493 105.3493 5267.466 519.7603 0 4747.705
190 0.8803 123.5297 123.5297 6176.486 247.0543 0 5929.432
191 0.741424 112.9548 112.9548 5647.741 405.6777 0 5242.063
192 0.42191 96.0598 96.0598 4802.99 659.1029 0 4143.887
193 0.10946 75.41192 75.41192 3770.596 968.8212 0 2801.775
194 0.831606 119.2106 119.2106 5960.53 311.8409 0 5648.69
195 0.04615 66.33232 66.33232 3316.616 1105.015 0 2211.601
196 0.004685 48.0347 48.0347 2401.735 1379.479 0 1022.256
197 0.382128 94.00207 94.00207 4700.103 689.969 0 4010.135
198 0.110228 75.49371 75.49371 3774.686 967.5943 0 2807.091
199 0.591275 104.6165 104.6165 5230.826 530.7522 0 4700.074
200 0.885749 124.0845 124.0845 6204.224 238.7328 0 5965.491
201 0.802933 117.0429 117.0429 5852.145 344.3564 0 5507.789
202 0.737577 112.7179 112.7179 5635.894 409.2319 0 5226.662
203 0.206235 83.60894 83.60894 4180.447 845.8659 0 3334.581
204 0.943717 131.7353 131.7353 6586.763 123.9711 0 6462.792
205 0.789141 116.0689 116.0689 5803.443 358.9671 0 5444.476
206 0.093103 73.56231 73.56231 3678.115 996.5654 0 2681.55
207 0.487084 99.35237 99.35237 4967.619 609.7144 0 4357.904
208 0.927155 129.0986 129.0986 6454.928 163.5216 0 6291.406
209 0.646207 107.502 107.502 5375.1 487.4701 0 4887.63
210 0.693956 110.1419 110.1419 5507.095 447.8715 0 5059.224
211 0.698986 110.4297 110.4297 5521.486 443.5543 0 5077.931
212 0.643231 107.3422 107.3422 5367.108 489.8676 0 4877.24
213 0.556951 102.8649 102.8649 5143.244 557.0267 0 4586.218
214 0.094681 73.75067 73.75067 3687.534 993.7399 0 2693.794
215 0.411317 95.51683 95.51683 4775.841 667.2476 0 4108.594
216 0.027337 61.57089 61.57089 3078.544 1176.437 0 1902.108
217 0.146322 78.9532 78.9532 3947.66 915.7019 0 3031.958
218 0.970648 137.8079 137.8079 6890.397 32.8808 0 6857.517
219 0.961085 135.2684 135.2684 6763.421 70.97356 0 6692.448
220 0.665893 108.572 108.572 5428.599 471.4202 0 4957.179
221 0.996464 153.8682 140 7000 0 0 7000
222 0.595205 104.8191 104.8191 5240.955 527.7135 0 4713.242
223 0.927614 129.165 129.165 6458.25 162.5251 0 6295.725
224 0.700722 110.5295 110.5295 5526.477 442.0569 0 5084.42
225 0.398904 94.87629 94.87629 4743.815 676.8556 0 4066.959
226 0.861675 121.7576 121.7576 6087.878 273.6367 0 5814.241
227 0.163943 80.43236 80.43236 4021.618 893.5147 0 3128.103
228 0.935426 130.3493 130.3493 6517.466 144.7601 0 6372.706
229 0.783677 115.6935 115.6935 5784.673 364.5982 0 5420.074
230 0.312425 90.22025 90.22025 4511.013 746.6962 0 3764.316
231 0.610261 105.6 105.6 5280 516 0 4764
232 0.670324 108.8162 108.8162 5440.809 467.7573 0 4973.052
233 0.373352 93.54024 93.54024 4677.012 696.8964 0 3980.116
234 0.824816 118.6775 118.6775 5933.876 319.8371 0 5614.039
235 0.390804 94.45553 94.45553 4722.776 683.1671 0 4039.609
236 0.437439 96.85067 96.85067 4842.533 647.24 0 4195.293
237 0.787896 115.9828 115.9828 5799.142 360.2573 0 5438.885
238 0.941348 131.3239 131.3239 6566.193 130.142 0 6436.051
239 0.026863 61.41912 61.41912 3070.956 1178.713 0 1892.243
240 0.344187 91.97874 91.97874 4598.937 720.3189 0 3878.618
241 0.659056 108.1977 108.1977 5409.887 477.0339 0 4932.853
242 0.164482 80.47595 80.47595 4023.797 892.8608 0 3130.937
243 0.328515 91.11967 91.11967 4555.983 733.205 0 3822.778
244 0.374286 93.58954 93.58954 4679.477 696.1569 0 3983.32
245 0.266687 87.54273 87.54273 4377.137 786.859 0 3590.278
246 0.662567 108.3896 108.3896 5419.48 474.1561 0 4945.324
247 0.555688 102.8009 102.8009 5140.045 557.9866 0 4582.058
248 0.96899 137.3231 137.3231 6866.155 40.15345 0 6826.002
249 0.634033 106.8511 106.8511 5342.553 497.234 0 4845.319
250 0.857057 121.3438 121.3438 6067.189 279.8433 0 5787.346
251 0.850659 120.7853 120.7853 6039.265 288.2206 0 5751.044
252 0.973637 138.7432 138.7432 6937.158 18.85259 0 6918.305
253 0.786769 115.9052 115.9052 5795.259 361.4223 0 5433.837
254 0.442418 97.10317 97.10317 4855.159 643.4524 0 4211.706
255 0.603803 105.2641 105.2641 5263.203 521.0391 0 4742.164
256 0.349898 92.28808 92.28808 4614.404 715.6788 0 3898.725
257 0.365408 93.1192 93.1192 4655.96 703.212 0 3952.748
258 0.602663 105.2049 105.2049 5260.246 521.9263 0 4738.319
259 0.904818 126.1901 126.1901 6309.503 207.149 0 6102.354
260 0.813698 117.8321 117.8321 5891.607 332.5178 0 5559.09
261 0.76908 114.7164 114.7164 5735.821 379.2537 0 5356.567
262 0.191144 82.52626 82.52626 4126.313 862.1061 0 3264.207
263 0.024847 60.74813 60.74813 3037.407 1188.778 0 1848.629
264 0.216709 84.33291 84.33291 4216.645 835.0064 0 3381.639
265 0.819002 118.2314 118.2314 5911.57 326.5291 0 5585.041
266 0.645234 107.4497 107.4497 5372.484 488.2547 0 4884.23
267 0.428092 96.3753 96.3753 4818.765 654.3705 0 4164.394
268 0.488186 99.40763 99.40763 4970.382 608.8855 0 4361.496
269 0.839842 119.8762 119.8762 5993.811 301.8568 0 5691.954
270 0.029846 62.3388 62.3388 3116.94 1164.918 0 1952.022
271 0.598057 104.9664 104.9664 5248.32 525.5039 0 4722.816
272 0.432915 96.62087 96.62087 4831.044 650.6869 0 4180.357
273 0.544308 102.2259 102.2259 5111.294 566.6117 0 4544.683
274 0.958817 134.7423 134.7423 6737.117 78.86485 0 6658.252
275 0.107935 75.24827 75.24827 3762.413 971.276 0 2791.137
276 0.680978 109.4087 109.4087 5470.434 458.8698 0 5011.564
277 0.312737 90.23784 90.23784 4511.892 746.4324 0 3765.46
278 0.560235 103.0313 103.0313 5151.564 554.5309 0 4597.033
279 0.805359 117.2184 117.2184 5860.919 341.7244 0 5519.194
280 0.0972 74.04652 74.04652 3702.326 989.3022 0 2713.024
281 0.483601 99.17766 99.17766 4958.883 612.3351 0 4346.548
282 0.056594 68.31946 68.31946 3415.973 1075.208 0 2340.765
283 0.02874 62.0072 62.0072 3100.36 1169.892 0 1930.468
284 0.820899 118.376 118.376 5918.798 324.3606 0 5594.437
285 0.254111 86.76781 86.76781 4338.39 798.4829 0 3539.908
286 0.004857 48.28237 48.28237 2414.118 1375.764 0 1038.354
287 0.910706 126.9023 126.9023 6345.115 196.4656 0 6148.649
288 0.955456 134.0045 134.0045 6700.226 89.93208 0 6610.294
289 0.888912 124.4152 124.4152 6220.76 233.7721 0 5986.988
290 0.699201 110.4421 110.4421 5522.104 443.3689 0 5078.735
291 0.249931 86.50589 86.50589 4325.295 802.4116 0 3522.883
292 0.819883 118.2984 118.2984 5914.919 325.5244 0 5589.394
293 0.994133 150.4008 140 7000 0 0 7000
294 0.331607 91.29042 91.29042 4564.521 730.6437 0 3833.877
295 0.156578 79.82759 79.82759 3991.38 902.5861 0 3088.794
296 0.323528 90.84287 90.84287 4542.143 737.357 0 3804.786
297 0.879078 123.4078 123.4078 6170.388 248.8835 0 5921.505
298 0.683333 109.5408 109.5408 5477.04 456.8881 0 5020.151
299 0.765524 114.4837 114.4837 5724.186 382.7442 0 5341.442
300 0.43483 96.71818 96.71818 4835.909 649.2273 0 4186.682
 Recommended
80 90 100 110 120 130 140
3883.439 4211.538 4474.734 4586.279 4781.659 4433.394 4292.535
374.0433 541.2249 797.3227 1005.884 1058.932 1231.029 1279.078
1202.908 1655.726 966.1836 1391.548 848.66 974.5454 1040.523
4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000
78% 87% 92% 95% 99% 99% 100%
 Selling Variable
price Probabilit cost
(Rs/unit.) y (Rs/unit.) uniform
4 0.3 2 0.1
5 0.5 3 0.6
6 0.2 4 0.3
Fixed cost 5000

simulation model
iter. r.no. sales r.no. price r.no. vcost revenue TVC FC
 Sales
volume Normal
(units) Distrn
3000 0.3
4000 0.4
6000 0.3

profit
 Current price 23
Relative frequency Iteration of 10 trades
60 7
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0.50 1 1 7
1 8
9
10
Trade numRandom NumbePrice change Stock Price 11
1 97 0.375 23.375 12
2 57 0.000 23.375 13
3 10 -0.250 23.125 14
4 69 0.125 23.250 15
5 76 0.125 23.375 16
6 39 0.000 23.375 17
7 95 0.375 23.750 18
8 96 0.375 24.125 19
9 49 0.000 24.125 20
10 27 -0.125 24.000 21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
 87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Price after 10 trades Average after 100 iterations Lower random number
24.000 24 23.08375 0
24 8
24 12
24 28
24 68
24 88
24 94
24 98
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
Upper random number Price change
7 -0.375
11 -0.25
27 -0.125
67 0
87 0.13
93 0.25
97 0.38
99 0.50