GETTING AHEAD OF CLIMATE CHANGE: ECONOMIC RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR TUNISIA

Getting ahead of climate change:

Economic risks and opportunities for Tunisia
November 2021

Visual representation of temperature anomalies for Tunisia from 1901-2020. Source: Ed Hawkins, available from: https://showyourstripes.info/
 Disclaimer
This research is conducted under the auspices of the North Africa technical Assistance facility (NATAF) programme by ACC,
a Tunisian based development consulting firm and implementing partner. The NATAF programme is funded by UK Foreign,
Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and implemented by Tetra Tech International Development. The views
expressed in this document are the author’s and do not reflect the opinion of the British Embassy in Tunis or the FCDO.
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Acknowledgements
This research was made successful by the invaluable contributions of a number of individuals and institutions and Tetra Tech
International Development would like to recognise their inputs and thank them. Firstly, all the researchers and staff at ACC
deserve a huge thanks for their work to gather, merge and outline all the existing data available on the impacts of climate
change in the three focus sectors. ACC were also crucial in the organisation, facilitation and reporting on the focus group
findings, bringing the life the report and supplementing the desk-based research with primary data. We are also indebted to
Daniel Yeo and Renée Chartres of Tetra Tech for their technical advice and direction of the analysis throughout the project,
and for their detailed review of the report. A special thanks also goes to Aaron Hickman for his excellent management of this
project and thorough editing of the report.
We would also like the express our gratitude to the Ministry of Environment, the British Embassy in Tunis and Tetra Tech’s
Saddem Jebali, for the facilitation of introductions and meetings crucial to data collection. Other government bodies, including
the Ministry of Agricluture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries and the Coastal Protection and Development Agency (APAL)
should also be thanked for providing access to existing data and reports. Similarly, the Agence Française de Développement
(AFD) and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) should be acknowledged for providing
insights and existing research. Finally, a special thanks goes to all those organisations and individuals who joined the focus
groups organised by ACC and offered their perspective on the main issues, some of which are listed in the main report.
Foreword Table of contents
UK Chargé d’Affaires Matthew Forman Abbreviations and Acronyms 6

The British Embassy Tunis is pleased to have supported this study on the economic impacts
Executive Summary 7
of climate change in Tunisia, in collaboration with the Government of Tunisia. The report is
the second in a series on climate change and the economy in Tunisia. Funded by the UK

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Government’s North Africa Technical Assistance Facility (NATAF), this report demonstrates
the urgency of action on climate change, making clear the expected serious economic Introduction 9
impacts and risks in the fisheries, agriculture and tourism sectors. The conclusions are stark, Methodology, Limitations and Structure 9
and do not make for easy reading. However, the message of this report is also one of hope.
Tunisia is at a crossroads, facing an important window of opportunity to pursue policies that

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avoid significant economic losses, and indeed (as detailed in the separate report), seize the
opportunities that climate adaptation policies represent. As part of its global leadership on Tunisia’s Climate Projections 11
climate action, the UK will continue to stand by Tunisia as it takes bold steps in this regard. Current climate patterns 12
Future climate patterns 14

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Sector Analysis: Agriculture 20
Her excellency Mrs. Leila Chikhaoui, Minister of Environment – Tunisia Overview of the Tunisian agriculture sector 21
Main climate-related impacts on the sector 22
Her excellency Mrs. Leila Chikhaoui, Minister of Environment – Tunisia

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The 26th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change held in Glasgow from October 31st to November 12th, Sector Analysis: Fisheries 30
2021, was a renewed opportunity to recall the urgency of aneffective c limate a ction and Overview of the Tunisian fishing sector 31
a strengthened commitment of all countries in the world.In Tunisia, we are aware that we
Main climate-related impacts on the sector 33
must act today to lay the foundations for a cleaner, sustainable, inclusive, low-carbon and
resilient development.

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In this perspective, carbon neutrality in 2050 should be considered as an emergency
and a top priority. This strategic choice will have to promote a radical transformation of Sector Analysis: Tourism 30
our development, providing great opportunities for the preservation of our natural capital
and our environment as well as the creation of a new form of economic wealth based Overview of the Tunisian fTourism sector 31
on innovation and openness towards international markets.In addition, carbon neutrality Main climate-related impacts on the sector 33
should significantly contribute to the creation of employment, the fight against poverty and

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the reduction of disparity between the municipalities and regions of Tunisia. At the same
time, given the confirmed vulnerability of Tunisia to the impacts, already very detectable, Conclusions 45
of climate change, the future development of Tunisia will have to give absolute priority to
the preservation of ecosystems and natural resources and the guarantee of food safety.
The intermediate steps of our climate policy, particularly reflected i n o ur u pdated NDC
(Nationally determined
contribution), transmitted to the Convention in October 2021, testify to Tunisia’s commitment
to combine climate issues with Tunisia's development priorities.
Indeed, our updated NDC has adopted an innovative vision, giving prominent place to climate
issues, especially in the most strategic sectors such as renewable energy, clean industry,
sustainable agriculture, and better wastemanagement, consolidating the foundations of a
circular economy, with a high capacity for wealth creation, technological innovation, and
employment for current and future generations.

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Abbreviations & Executive Summary
Acronyms Climate change is already being felt across the Tunisian economy and is a major challenge for the future of Tunisia and
Tunisians. Three critical sectors of Tunisia’s economy are particularly vulnerable to climate change: agriculture, fisheries and
tourism. At the moment there is limited data around the economic impacts of climate change in these sectors. With better
data and increased awareness of these potential risks and opportunities, Tunisia can make informed decisions on climate
ACTA Aménagement et Conservation des Terrains Agricoles / Strategy for the Development and Conservation of Agricultural Lands
action.
Agence Française de Développement / French Development Agency
AFD With a view to addressing this gap, the Tunisian Ministry of Environment, in collaboration with the British Embassy Tunis,
ANME I’Agence Nationale de Maitrise de l’Energie / The National Agency for Energy Management commissioned the report Getting Ahead of Climate Change: Economic Risks and Opportunities for Tunisia. Primarily involving
APAL Agence de Protection et Aménagement du Littoral / Coastal Protection and Development Agency desk research, the report development also involved targeted focus group discussions with representatives involved in this
section. The report aims to bring together existing work to communicate more clearly what is already understood and
APAD L’Association Pour l’Agriculture Durable / Association for Sustainable Agriculture highlight what type of changes could be expected in the three sectors in the years to come.
BET Ambassade Britannique à Tunis / British Embassy Tunis
Banque Centrale de la Tunisie / Central Bank of Tunisia In terms of high level findings the report sets out the following:
BCT
BMS Bulletins Météorologiques Spéciaux / Special Meteorological Bulletins
Tunisia is very exposed to climate change
CRDA Commissariat Régional au Developpement Agricole / Regional Commissary for Agricultural Development
Tunisia’s climate will be hotter and drier, with changes to key seasonal rainfall. The country
CV Coefficient de Variation / Mean and Coefficient of Variation will also be exposed to sea level rises and increased salinity and acidification.

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

FTAV Fédération Tunisienne des Agences de Voyages / Tunisian Federation of Travel Agencies This exposure creates a cocktail of risk for agriculture, fisheries and tourism – that
compounds existing risks in these sectors.
FTH Fédération Tunisienne de l’Hôtellerie / Tunisian Federation of Hotels
FU Unités de Forage / Forage Units
Olive and olive oil production will be affected by water availability and an increased
GDA Groupements de Developpement Agricole / Agricultural Development Groups number of hot days. This will be one of the main ways that climate will be felt by farmers and
GDP Produit National Brut (PNB) / Gross Domestic Product could result in annual export losses in the order of $US228m by 2100.
GEF Global Environment Facility Dates are less well understood but at risk of viability – but changing climate could increase
GIPP Groupe Interprofessionel des Produits de la Pêche / Interprofessional Group of Fishery pests and lead to shifts in critical flowering and pollination periods. There is no specific
analysis in Tunisia, but based on estimates of impacts in similar countries, $20-26m of
GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit / German Development Agency exports could be at risk in 2050 and $72-85m in 2100.
INM Institut National de la Météorologie / National Institute of Meteorology
Cereal production will be severely affected with estimated reductions of 30-50% in
IPCC Groupe d’Experts Intergouvernemental sur le changement climatique / Intergovernmental Climate Change
contribution to agricultural GDP by 2100 and 30% job losses by 2050. This will further
IUCN Union Internationale pour la Conservation de la Nature / International Union for Conservation of Nature stress self-sufficiency and will increase import dependency.
MEL Ministre de L’environment / Ministry of Environment
MARHP Ministre de l’Agriculture, des Ressources Hydrauliques et de la Pêche / Ministry of Agricluture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries
Specific finding in each of the three sectors are set out below.
MCPA Zones Protégées Marines et Côtières / Marine and Coastal Protected Areas
MSFD Directive-cadre sur la stratégie pour le milieu marin / Marine Strategy Framework Directive
NAP Plan National d’Adaptation / National Adaption Plan
Organisation Non Gouvernementale / Non-Governmental Organisation Agriculture
NGO
ONAS Office National de l’Assainissement du Tunisie / National Office of Sanitation of Tunisia The agriculture sector (including fisheries) constitutes 10% of Tunisia’s GDP. Economic Economic losses
Office National de l\’Huile / National Olive Oil Office losses expected to arise due to climate change in this sector are substantial, expected due to
ONS equating to 5-10% of sectoral GDP by 2030. These loses are a result of the combined 5-10% climate change
RCP Voies de concentration représentatives / Representative Concentration Pathways impacts of the degradation of water resources and ground water, a drop in yields, a by 2030
reduction in the area suitable for tree and cereal crops, and an increased risk of fire.
SAP Système d’Alerte Précoce / Early Warning System
SNEV Stratégie Nationale de l’Economie Verte / National Green Growth Strategy While it is difficult to put an exact figure against the cost of the expected damage due
11.52 million USD per year
to increased floods and droughts, there is no doubt that this can be expected to be
TNC Troisième Communication Nationale de la Tunisie / (Tunisia’s) Third National Communication to the UNFCCC
substantial. Economic estimates suggest the impact to be as high as $11.52m per Economic impact in the
TND Dinar Tunisien / Tunisian Dinar year in the forestry sector alone by 2030, whilst estimates for job losses in the sector forestry sector by 2030
vary between 8,250 to 16,500 jobs – potentially reaching 37,000 jobs in the case of
UNESCO Organisation des Nations Unies pour l’Education, la Science et la Culture / The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
a major drought. 37,000 jobs
UNFCCC Convention Cadre des Nations Unies pour le Changement Climatique (CCNUCC) / United Nations Framework losses in the
case of a major
USD Dollars Américains / US Dollars drought.
UTAP Union Tunisienne de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche / Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries

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 Fisheries
The fishing industry will change dramatically and dynamically, with losses of existing
species and increase in non-native species. Non-native species will bring both risk
and opportunity – with the right transition, yields of marine fisheries could actually
increase. Aquaculture will continue to be significant, but the main farmed fish species will
be face increased risk of disease.
The impact on fishing will be regionally specific, with critical impacts for particularly
vulnerable populations, most notably charfia fishing in the Kerkenneh islands; and clam
digging in the south which is mainly undertaken by women.
The fisheries sector is likely to face higher frequency storms and heat waves, rising
sea levels and higher temperatures. These phenomena will impact the mortality of fish
populations and influence the production and proliferation of toxic algae and invasive
harmful species. It will also lead to the loss of surface area for fishing and collection areas.
Nonetheless, the climate change projections for the sector indicate that fishery Economic losses
resources could experience a reverse trend, with productivity of sea fishing areas expected due to
growing, allowing for an 85% increase in resources by 2050 and 175% by 2100
(i.e. between 80,000-150,000 more tonnes of fishery products). On the other hand,
85% climate change
by 2030
artisanal coastal fishing, charfia fishing and shore fishing for clams could experience
a very significant decrease with related negative socioeconomic impacts at local level.
In this context, the economic impacts could be positive at the national level, but
negative at the local level. According to national studies and other available research
a decrease of
and data available, at the local level, the largest negative economic impact is the
workers income
potential loss of employment for of at least 20% in the sector and a decrease
of between
of workers income of between 30-50%. However, with the associated value of new
30-50%
species and the increase of yields in marine fisheries, the economic consequence at
the national level could be positive, with increased returns of up to 29% by 2030 and up
56% by 2050. In 2010, the fisheries sector accounted for approximately 1.9% of GDP,
in the coming years, this could grow under the impact of climate change.
Tourism
Tourism in Tunisia is particularly exposed to climate change given the predominance of
seaside tourist destinations. Sea level rise will reduce beach areas and increase risk for
coastal properties – a sea level rise of 50cm could lead to a loss of productive capital
in the order of 3.6bn Tunisian Dinars (TND) (circa 1.5 billion US dollars).
Climate change will shift tourist seasons – making peak summer dates less attractive
due to heat but increasing the potential of spring and autumn.
Indirect risks are also important for tourism. In particular, water stress is a major issue
for tourism, particularly in peak summer dates and could pose a bigger risk than
increases in temperature.
Conclusions
These potential impacts also need to be seen in the context of other challenges that Tunisia faces – including:
COVID-19 induced losses and recovery; existing environmental change; and the need to modernise economic sectors. As
such, it is important that climate action is well integrated with wider actions and priorities. Furthermore, although there are
many sectoral level strategies and plans – they do not yet form part of a holistic economy-wide strategy. The plans that do
exist have not been implemented. Whilst there remain some analytical gaps, it is evident that climate change will have
significant implications for all parts of Tunisia’s economy and society. In the absence of effective climate action, many of
these impacts will have negative consequences – but with the right strategic choices and actions now, many of these
risks could be turned into positive opportunities for Tunisia. Tunisia is at a critical moment in its history and faces a
critical window of opportunity in the next decade to rise to the challenge of climate change.
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Introduction
Tunisia has made a concerted effort to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. In 2014, Tunisia incorporated
climate change concerns into its new Constitution (one of only three countries globally to do so to date), guaranteeing “the
right to a healthy and balanced environment and the right to participate in the protection of the climate” and the “necessary
means to eradicate pollution of the environment”1. Tunisia has also developed several major climate change mitigation and
adaptation policies and programmes across the country in a diverse range of sectors. These exist alongside a host of actions
to promote resilience, as outlined in Tunisia’s 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the agreed update from
202, and successive communications for the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC).
Three sectors are particularly critical to the economy of Tunisia, whilst also being highly vulnerable to climate change;
the agriculture, fisheries and tourism sectors. Despite some in-depth assessments, such as the two recent Ministry of
Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries (MARHP) and French Development Agency (AFD) reports in preparation of the
National Adaptation Plan (NAP)3 , robust data is mostly lacking. Where information is available, it is usually spread across
several sources, making it difficult for busy policy makers to grasp the key messages.
The absence of accessible and concrete information about the economic impact of climate change impacts policy planning
by the Tunisian government – particularly at this juncture as the country embarks on an update of its 2015 NDC in preparation
for the UNFCCC meeting in Glasgow, UK, in November 2021 (COP26) and moves forward with the preparation of its long-
term Low Emission Development Strategy (2050). With better data and increased awareness of potential opportunities,
Tunisia can make informed commitments to mitigation and adaptation measures - and transition eventually to a net-zero
economy.
With a view to addressing this knowledge gap, the Tunisian Ministry of Environment, in collaboration with the British Embassy
Tunis, commissioned Getting ahead of climate change: economic risks and opportunities for Tunisia. Drawing on existing
desk research, data obtained from relevant Tunisian institutions, and findings from focus groups discussions with key actors
working within in the three sectors, the report presents a bleak picture of the ongoing economic risks climate change poses
to key sectors of the Tunisian economic, while also highlighting how departing from business as usual (BAE) can ensure that
Tunisia is ahead of the curve in developing a thriving climate resilient economy.
Methodology, Limitations and Structure
As noted above, this report has been put together using a mix of desk-based research, ongoing engagement and discussion
with the Ministry of Environment, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. As a first measure, the authors of
the report collected and analysed existing relevant documentation concerning the Tunisian economy as a whole and the
three sectors, extracting relevant information in relation to climate change and its impact. The multitude of studies consulted,
developed over the last ten years and produced for varying objectives, were compared to elucidate the most relevant
information and also to identify the shortcomings of the available research.
Overall, the two-month desk research revealed that quantitative data on the economic impact of climate change on the
chosen sectors, including on gross domestic product (GDP) and jobs is missing from the majority of the reports available.
The main sources of data on impacts were the two MARHP and AFD reports in preparation for Tunisia’s NAP which focus on
agriculture (2020; 2021); for fisheries, a specific study by the MARHP and FAO (2018), and for tourism, two reports by the
Ministry of Tourism and GiZ (2009; 2010). While these reports contain a wealth of data, sector-wide projections of economic
impact are heavily qualified making them difficult to rely upon. Nonetheless, in several reports, robust sub-sector data is
available, which we used to extrapolate some estimated impacts economic impacts, where feasible.
Upon completion of the desk review, the desk research was supplemented with key informant interviews with several
stakeholders – including the Coastal Protection and Development Agency (APAL) and the MARHP – as well as focus
group discussions with participants working in the sectors. The objectives of these interviews and discussions was first
to understand key actors perceptions of climate impacts in their sectors. The secondary objective was to identify where
perceptions of climate change impacts differ from reality and that of the expert opinions uncovered in the reports consulted
and where perceptions coincide with expert opinion. This is important as effective policy on climate change is not just about
responding to the stated evidence, but also bridging divide between what the public thinks is happening and what is actually
happening in accordance with the science.
¹Article 45, Constitution of Tunisia, 2014.
2
Government of Tunisia. 2015. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Tunisia. Available from: https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Tunisia%20
First/INDC-Tunisia-English%20Version.pdf
3
Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources and Fisheries (hereinafter MARHP) and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. Tunisie – Contribution aux éléments de la phase préparatoire du
processus du Plan National d’Adaptation (Axe 2) : Impacts des effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire; and MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. Tunisie –
Contribution aux éléments de la phase préparatoire du processus du Plan National d’Adaptation (Axe 2) : Analyse des effets des scenarios de changement climatique RCP 4.5 et
RCP 8.5.
4
MARHP and FAO. January 2018. Etude de la vulnérabilité de la pêche et de l’aquaculture face aux changements climatiques en Tunisie. Note Synthétique.
5
Ministre de l’Equipment, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et du Développement Durable et GiZ. 2009. Tourisme et changement climatique en Tunisie: Annexe 2: L’étude du chan-
gement climatique et le potentiel climato-touristique de la Tunisie ; Ministre de l’Equipment, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et du Développement Durable et GiZ. 2010. Tourisme
et changement climatique en Tunisie: Evaluation des impacts environnementaux et socioéconomiques du changement climatique sur les principales activités touristiques en
Tunisie.
 Across six focus groups in August and September 2021, 57 individuals, representing over 34 organisations, including unions,
government ministries and research institutions, and thematic experts, farmers, fishermen, hoteliers and staff in charge of
the management of these sectors, were consulted (see Table 1 below). At the start of each focus group, the researchers
presented some background information on climate change scenarios and the potential impacts these would have on each
sector. Following this short presentation, the floor was then opened to participants to outline and discuss each individuals
knowledge of, and experience with, climate change.
Topics discussed in each focus group included:
The report is structured as follows. Section 2 provides an overview of Tunisia’s climatic projections, identifying the changes
that are most relevant for Tunisia’s economy. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present the results of the desk analysis around how
these changes may impact the three sectors under consideration. Within these sections, the contribution of each sector to
the Tunisian economy is provided, along with the available evidence concerning the expected impacts of climate change
on economic, and in some cases, social conditions. In each of these sections, the findings of the focus group discussions
and key informant interviews are also analysed in specific call out boxes. Section report concludes in Section 6, providing
recommendations on potential next steps for Tunisia to be in a position to develop appropriate and resilience-enforcing
policy responses to climate change.

The impacts individuals at the grassroots level have already noticed (increased soil
salinity, increased water scarcity, differing fish stocks, higher sea levels and more
erosion)

The economic impact of these changes (lower crop yields, loss of fishing productivity
and costs associated with adaption, such as new fishing equipment, the construction
of sea defences and an increased use of air conditioning)

Suggested adaption and mitigation actions (subsides for new equipment and larger
projects including development of solar panels and sea defences, greater policing
of illegal fishing and drilling, communication on available support mechanisms,
increased technical assistance on adaption and mitigation actions)

Barriers impeding adaption and mitigation action (bureaucracy, gaps in legal texts,
lack of funds, lack of awareness and technical know-how, lack of research/data).

Findings have also been outlined under each section of this report in call out boxes.

Waste Sector
Focus group

Agriculture
Participating organisations

Participating organisations included:

1. Ministry of Agricluture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries (MARHP)
Findings 2
2. Tunisian Olive Institute
3. Agricultural Development Groups (GDA)
4. Association for Sustainable Agriculture (APAD)
5. Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries (UTAP)
6. Regional Commissariat for Agricultural Development (CRDA)
7. Sahara and Sahel Observatory
8. The National Institute of Field Crops (INGC)
9. Synagri

Fisheries Participating organisations included:

1. National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology (INSTM)
2. Association for the Continuity of Generations (ACG)
3. Interprofessional Group of Fishery Products (GIPP)
4. Ministry of Agricluture, Hydraulic Resources and Fisheries (MARHP)
5. National Health Watch Center
6. Agency of the Harbours and Fishing Facilities (APIP)
7. Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries (UTAP)
8. Tunisian Federation of Environment and Development (FTED)
9. Coastal Protection and Planning Agency (APAL)

Tourism Participating organisations included:

1. National Office of Tourism (TNTO)
2. Tunisian Hotels Association (FTH)
3. Observatory of Sahara and Sahel
4. Tunisian Travel Agencies Association (FTAV)
5. Regional Commissariat of Tourism, Djerba
6. Pinna Association for the Development of Ecotourism

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 GETTING AHEAD OF CLIMATE CHANGE: ECONOMIC RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR TUNISIA

Current climate patterns

Tunisia’s climate varies across time and space

Tunisia has several distinct climate zones, being subhumid in the far north, semiarid in the north-west and at Cap Bon, arid in
central Tunisia and desert in the south. Overall, the country has relatively little rainfall, and what rainfall there is, is unevenly
distributed across the country. Only the north-western third of the country receives more than 400mm of rainfall each year.
In areas further south, the average annual rainfall varies from 50 to 350mm. Rainfall can also vary dramatically from year to
year. The coefficient of rainfall variation (CV) is more than 50%, meaning that average annual rainfall can be between half
and double the long-term average.
Average annual temperatures are between 16°C and 20°C. The summer is typically hot and dry, with mean temperatures often
greater than 25°C and reaching 32°C in the south. Winters are characterised as mild and wet, with maximum temperatures
around 15°C, except for high-altitude areas in the west.

Tunisia has already experienced significant warming

since 1978
Between 1978-2012, average annual temperatures increased by around 2.1°C in Tunisia as shown in the figure below (blue
lines mean colder than the 1970-2000 mean and red lines mean warmer). This has translated into the number of hot days
almost doubling and the number of cold days falling by half. In data provided for Tunisia’s Third National Communication for
the UNFCCC in 2019 (hereinafter ‘Tunisia’s Third National Communication’), the National Institute of Meteorology (INM) also
recorded an increase in the frequency and size of extreme heat and rainfall events over the same period.

Figure 1: Temperature change in Tunisia since 1901

Tunisia’s Climate
Projections 2

When it comes to annual rainfall, no significant trend over this time period can be ascertained (see Figure 2 below which
shows historical winter rainfall in Tunis relative to the mean – positive indicates wetter than average, and negative indicates
drier than average). However as indicated in the section above, rainfall patterns vary across the country and rainfall variability
is high.

6
Data in this section comes the National Institute of Meteorology (INM) as included in Tunisia’s Third Communication to the UNFCCC. Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s
Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. Available from: https://unfccc.int/documents/196836
7
Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. Available from: https://unfccc.int/documents/196836

13
 Figure 2: Winter rainfall relative to mean 1981-2009 Table 2: Tunisia’s Climate projections (Tunis)

Future climate patterns

To analyse potential future climate patterns for Tunisia’s Third National Communication, INM used two different emissions
scenarios, which were developed by the IPCC for their Fifth Assessment Report and are known as Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The two scenarios used were RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
RCP4.5 is described as an intermediate scenario where emissions peak around 2040, then decline, with radiative forcing
stabilising at 4.5W/m2 in 2100 – this represents a global increase in temperatures of 2.1-3.5°C .
RCP8.5 is taken as the worst-case scenario, where emissions continue to rise and radiative forcing reaches 8.5W/m2
in 2100 – this represents a global increase in temperatures of 3.3-5.7°C. However, it is important to note that since this
scenario was developed, it has come to be considered very unlikely.
Using these emissions scenarios , INM developed climate change projections over two-time horizons, a medium-term set of
projections out to the year 2050 and a long-term projection to 2100.
Figure 3: Evolution of the annual average temperature (in °C) by 2050
(A) and by 2100 (B) with the RCP 4.5 scenario

8
Ed Hawkins, 2021. #showyourstripes. Available from: https://showyourstripes.info/
9
Team analysis based on data from Funk, Chris, Pete Peterson, Martin Landsfeld, Diego Pedreros, James Verdin, Shraddhanand Shukla, Gregory Husak, James Rowland,
Laura Harrison, Andrew Hoell & Joel Michaelsen. «The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes». Scientific Data
2, 150066. doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.66 2015.
10
Radiative forcing is the change in energy flux in the atmosphere caused by natural and/or anthropogenic factors of climate change as measured by watts / metre . It is the
scientific basis for the greenhouse effect on planets, and plays an important role in computational models of Earth’s energy balance and climate

11
CMIP5 data for RCP4.5 and 8.5 was downscaled to a resolution of 12.5km via the EURO-CORDEX regional downscaling programme.
12
Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. Available from: https://unfccc.int/documents/196836

14 15

Figure 4: Evolution of precipitation (%) by 2050 (A) and by 2100 (B) with the RCP 4.5
scenario
Temperatures will be significantly higher, with less and more variable rainfall
The main findings of INM’s data are:
Temperatures are likely to continue to increase – The projections largely affirm the continuation of existing trends,
showing that the annual temperature is likely to increase by 1-2.3°C by 2050 and by 2-5.2°C by the end of the
century.
Annual rainfall is likely to decrease – Overall annual rainfall is projected to decrease by 5-14% by 2050, and by up
to 27% by 2100.
Seasonal rainfall is likely to become more variable – Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, seasonal rainfall becomes much
more variable by 2100, with significant decreases in rainfall in summer, in southern Tunisia (-35%), and a slight
increase in rainfall in autumn in the north-west of the country (+5%). Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, precipitation
decreases significantly (-35%) in winter in southern Tunisia and in spring in northern Tunisia.
13
Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC.
14
Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC
16
Impacts will be felt unevenly across Tunisia
As highlighted in the table above, these changes will not be felt evenly throughout Tunisia. The coast in the north and the
east of Tunisia is expected to warm up less rapidly than the West and the extreme South. Similarly, total annual rainfall is
expected to reduce by 2100 in the centre-west of the country (between Sfax and Gabes governorates in particular), in the
northwest of the country (governorates of Jendouba and Le Kef) and in the desert area (Tataouine governorate).
Declining rainfall, higher temperatures and sea level rise will in turn reduce water resource
availability
According to the 2021 MARHP and AFD study on climate change impacts on food security in Tunisia in preparation for
the NAP (hereinafter NAP Food Security Report), Tunisia can expect to see a drop of water supply between 25-36% by
2050 and between 33-61% by 2100. The study indicates that a third of this decrease in supply results from increased
evapotranspiration (because of higher temperatures) and two thirds is due to the decrease in the amount of rain. Furthermore,
renewable groundwater could halve by 2100 (a decrease from the current 1524 million m3 to almost 1000 million m3 by 2050
and 700 million by 2100). Coastal aquifers could also be affected by sea level rise and resulting saline intrusion.
Extreme weather and significant changes to sea conditions are also likely
The First Mediterranean Assessment Report by the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC)
conducted in 2020 a similar exercise to the INM at a regional scale and identified further major trends.
They concluded that in the future, warm temperature extremes will increase and heat waves will intensify in duration and
peak temperatures – under the RCP 4.5 scenario, nearly all nights will be tropical and there will be almost no cold days by
2100. There is insufficient information to draw firm conclusions on “medicanes” (Mediterranean hurricanes) - but projections
indicate these will decrease in frequency and increase in intensity.
The MedECC Regional Study also identified major changes to sea conditions. Mean sea level across the Mediterranean
Basin rose by 1.4 mm per year during the 20th century and has accelerated to 2.8 mm per year recently (1993–2018). By
2090, sea level near Tunis is likely to rise by 20-80cm.
In addition the report found that the Mediterranean Sea surface waters are warming and its deep waters are becoming
saltier. The increase in atmospheric CO2 has also resulted in the acidification of the Mediterranean Sea waters – which will
continue to acidify, even though the Mediterranean Sea is able to absorb relatively more anthropogenic CO2 per unit area
than the global ocean.
In the following sections we look at how these changes will impact on Tunisia’s agriculture, fishing and tourism sectors.
15
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. Tunisie – Contribution aux éléments de la phase préparatoire du processus du Plan National d’Adaptation (Axe 2) : Impacts des
effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire (hereinafter NAP Food Security Report).
16
MedECC. 2020. Climate and Environment Change in the Mediterranean Basin: Current situations and Risks for the Future. First Mediterranean Assessment Report. Available
17
 Overview of the Tunisian agriculture sector
The agricultural sector and the water resources sector are managed by a single Ministry, the MARHP, which has 144 general
directorates.

The sector is dominated by medium and small size farms, with significant fragmentation of land

Tunisia’s total agricultural area is estimated at 10.2 million ha (or 63% of the territory), including 4.8 million hectares (ha)
of cultivable land, 4.8 million ha of rangelands and 0.6 million ha of forests. According to a 2005 survey, 75% of farms are
smaller than 10 ha, 22% are between 10-50 ha and only 3% are bigger than 50 ha. This data highlights both the degree of
land fragmentation, and the dominance of medium-sized farms in Tunisia.

Agriculture employs 15% of the working population and is dominated by men. Farming is not the main economic
activity for most farmers.

The 2020 MARHP and AFD NAP study on the effects of climate change RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 prepared for the National
Adaptation Plan (hereinafter the NAP RCP Study) provides an estimated breakdown of the type of employment and gender
of those involved in the agriculture sector, using MARHP data from 2017 (see Figure 5) While men constitute the vast
majority of farmers, the number of women working in the sector is not insubstantial, albeit with most women farmers engaged
in temporary roles and on family farms.

Figure 5: Farmers by gender (2017) (Tunis)

Sector Analysis
Agriculture
3
Overall, regardless of gender, only 44% of farmers carry out agriculture as their main activity. The extent to which agriculture
is the main activity correlates to the size of the farm – the smaller the size the more likely that agriculture is not the main
activity.

Agriculture’s contribution to GDP has declined to around 10%, with livestock and olives as the most important
sub-sectors.

Representing 20% of GDP in 1962, agriculture was the most important economic sector at Tunisia’s independence. In 2018,
however, its contribution declined by half, amounting to just 10% of GDP. In terms of value, agricultural production (excluding
fishing) is dominated by livestock (37%) followed by arboriculture – mainly made up of olive production (28%), vegetable
crops (16%) and cereals (10%). In terms of livestock, the bulk of pastoralists are smallholders. The number of herds has
been on a downward trend in recent years, however, meat production has stabilised around an average of 122 000 tonnes,
ensuring Tunisia has a self-sufficiency rate for red meat production of 97%.

17
MARHP, 2019. Diagnosis and outlook for rain-fed agriculture in Tunisia.
18
MARHP, 2006. Agricultural Farm Structures Survey 2004-2005.
19
Cited in MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. Tunisie – Contribution aux éléments de la phase préparatoire du processus du Plan National d’Adaptation (Axe 2) : Analyse des
effets des scenarios de changement climatique RCP 4.5 et RCP 8.5 (hereinafter NAP RCP Study). Unless stated otherwise, all statistics cited in this section on Agriculture come
from this report.
20
Based on data from MAHRP. Available from: http://www.agridata.tn/group/exploitants-et-main-d-oeuvre-agricole
21
Agriculture is the main activity of only half of those who own less than 5 ha. It constitutes the main activity for 80% of those with 50 ha or more. This data comes from the 2020
NAP RCP Study.

19
 Olives constitute a significant export product representing around 40% of all agricultural exports.
Adapted to the soil and climatic conditions, there are more than 65 million olive trees in Tunisia, with 95% of this area rainfed.
60% of all Tunisian farmers (or 309,000 producers), derive all or part of their income from olive tree cultivation. Olive growing
generates around 50 million working days per year, especially for women and young people who make up the majority of the
temporary labour force during the harvest.
Olive oil is also an important export product. Tunisia exported $US733m worth of olive oil in 2018, representing around 40%
of all agricultural exports and 3.8% of total exports.
Dates are providing a growing contribution to Tunisia’s agriculture sector.
Date palm (oases) occupy an area of around 40,976 ha, of which approximately 70% is the Deglet Nour date palm. There
has been significant growth in the production of the date palm in Tunisia over the last decade, with the most recently
available statistics showing an average annual growth rate of 7% between 2003 and 2013 (of which more than 70% was the
palm Deglet Nour). In 2013 it was estimated that the date palm contributed to the income of around 60,000 direct and indirect
operators and provided 7.234 million working days. Given upward trends in the growth of dates, it can be hypothesised that
these numbers will have increased over the last eight years. Overall, the value of production of dates, at current prices,
represents 5.7% of the value of total agricultural production in Tunisia.
Like olives, dates are also an important export product. Tunisia is the world’s leading exporter of the date palm, accounting
for 23% of the value of world trade. Date exporters were worth around $289m in 2018, representing 15% of the country’s
total agricultural exports.
Cereals, constituting 10% of the agriculture sector, are an important domestic crop, largely grown by
small farmers – even though Tunisia remains dependent on cereal imports for domestic consumption.
Two thirds of cereal growers are small farmers, helping to explain the fact that cereal production is not able to meet the
growing demand, in particular for soft wheat intended for bread making. Over the period 2008-2017, the self-sufficiency rate
stood at an average of 60% for durum wheat, 16% for common wheat and 52% for barley, highlighting Tunisia’s dependence
on imports.
Agriculture in Tunisia is mainly rainfed, which contributes between half and two thirds of agricultural
production value. Irrigation systems faced major challenges.
Rainfed crops cover 4.5 million ha and is therefore highly exposed to climate conditions, especially year-to-year rainfall
variability and seasonal rainfall distribution. A small but significant portion of land is irrigated - nearly 435,000 ha – including
243,000 ha of public irrigated areas and 192,000 ha of private irrigated areas, representing about 8.2% of the total useful
agricultural area.
Irrigation is not sustainably managed due to a range of factors. Since 1990 the management of public irrigated areas has
been entrusted to local agricultural development groups – Groupement de Developpement Agricole et de la Peche (GDAPs)
– with the support of regional authorities - Commissariat Régional au Développement Agricole (CRDAs). Generally, these
systems suffered from underfunding and face difficulties in covering operating costs.
Further, as noted in the 2021 NAP Food Security Report, on average, 41% of water between the delivery point and the
irrigator terminal was lost over the period 2010-2016, with these losses mainly attributable to the deterioration of meters
and illegal withdrawals from pipes. The study indicates that the policy of water saving based mainly on localised irrigation
22
All dollar figures cited in this report refer to USD.
23
These oases are mainly located in the governantes of Kébili (58%), Tozeur (21%), Gabès (16%) and Gafsa (5%). Tunisia’s National Agriculture Observatory (ONAGRI). Available from: http://
www.onagri.nat.tn.
24
The yield per palm tree has evolved in recent years to reach an average of 52 kg / plant. Deglet Nour palms from new plantations are much more productive than those from old oases. In
2013, the yield per vineyard of Deglet Nour in Gafsa reached 73 kg.
25
The Growth Lab at Harvard University. 2021. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Available from: https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/223/growth-dynamics . All figures cited in this report refer
to $US unless stated otherwise.
26
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. NAP Food Security Report.
27
Since 1990, the management of public irrigated areas has been entrusted to local agricultural development groups (Groupements de Developpement Agricole or GDAs) with the support of
regional authorities (the Commissariat Régional au Developpement Agricole or CRDAs). These irrigation systems are under-funded. At present, only 17% of GDAs cover the operating costs of
their irrigation systems, while maintenance costs are fully covered by the CRDAs. The other GDAs can only bear part of the required operating costs at varying levels, leading to rising debts or a
failure to rehabilitate the network in their area.
28
MARHP, 2019. National Report on the Water Sector.
29
At present, only 17% of GDAs cover the operating costs of their irrigation systems, while maintenance costs are fully covered by the CRDAs. The other GDAs can only bear part of the required
operating costs at varying levels, leading to rising debts or a failure to rehabilitate the network in their area.
20
Main climate-related impacts on the sector
It is important to note that the consequences of climate change on the agriculture sector in economic terms have never been
comprehensively quantified. The relevant data uncovered during the desk review is provided below.
The combination of increased temperatures and changes to seasonal rainfall will affect agricultural
yields and quality with a complex set of risks
There are linked impacts from increased temperatures and changes to rainfall that will heavily impact agriculture in Tunisia.
Higher temperatures will increase thermal stress for crops and livestock, in turn affecting yields and productivity. Hotter
temperatures will also increase evaporation and evapotranspiration, drying out soils and further increasing plant stress.
At the same time, reductions in rainfall will directly affect rainfed agriculture by reducing the amount of water available. This
will be particularly acute if it is accompanied by increased water demand due to higher temperatures. Tunisia could see
water availability fall by 25-36% by 2050 and 33-61% by 2100 – around two thirds of this decline is due to the reduction in
rainfall, and the other third of this decrease is due to increased evapotranspiration (because of hotter temperatures).
Reduction of rainfall also results in compound stresses as different uses compete for limited water resources – for example
during successive dry years, the MARHP reduces the surface water quotas for farmers in favour of drinking water supply.
Poor regulation and enforcement of groundwater use means that illegal drilling further stresses groundwater levels. In 2018,
following a dry period, out of 30,670 recorded boreholes, 18,031 were classified as illegal.
Climate impacts will compound economic losses
Drought
Tunisia’s 2007 Agriculture Adaptation Strategy uses two scenarios for the Tunisian economy to project the agricultural
sector’s development by 2030. Both scenarios assume a total opening of the Tunisian economy by 2030 and the removal of
all barriers to trade – the two scenarios are distinguished by the pace of the implementation of the opening (slow for scenario
1 and fast for scenario 2).
Under scenario 1, by 2030, agricultural GDP, following a drop in areas available for farming, and with
yields remaining identical to the reference year, would decrease by 5.1%. Accounting for an extended
period of drought, agriculture GDP would decrease by 20% under this scenario.
Under scenario 2, by 2030, agricultural GDP, following a drop in areas available for farming, and with
yields remaining identical to the reference year, would decrease by 9.6%. Accounting for an extended
period of drought, agriculture GDP would decrease by 22.5% under this scenario.
If we consider that we need 20,000 Tunisian Dinars (TND) (circa $7080) to create one job in the agriculture sector, the loss
of GDP under scenario 1 could generate 1650 job losses, which could reach 37,000 job losses in case of drought.
A real life example suggests that droughts are already leading to massive losses in the sector.
Estimated losses following the 2016 drought were as high as $450m. These losses were partly the result of increased
farmer debts. At the end of August 2016, the overall volume of bank commitments in the agricultural sector was estimated
at $733.5m, with expired credits in the order of $325.2m. The President of the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries
(UTAP), argued in an interview in late 2017 that farmer indebtedness should be addressed through the cancellation of late
payment penalties and the removal of interest and rescheduling debts, which will allow farmers to honour their financial
commitments to banks.
30
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021, p. 20. NAP Food Security Report.
31
The impact of climate change on agriculture in terms of diseases and pests are not covered here. Details of these impacts are included in the 2021 NAP Food Security Report and the MedECC
report.
32
MARHP, 2020. National water report of 2019.
33
MARHP and GiZ. 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation du secteur agricole et des écosystèmes au changement climatique.
34
Agriculture expert consultation
35
L’economiste. 2017. ‘UTAP Code d’investment regard critique’. Available from: https://www.leconomistemaghrebin.com/2017/05/12/utap-code-dinvestment-regard-critique/
21
 If we refer to the evaluation of the total economic value of the benefits provided by Tunisian forests, which was estimated
Floods and rising sea levels for the year 2012 at $ 77m (see Table 6 below) which represents 0.3% of GDP, it can be estimated that losses by
2030 of 180,000 ha will equate to an economic loss of 31.680 million TND ($11.24m).
Flooding remains the most common natural disaster risk facing Tunisia. As can be seen by the examples
below, floods can be particularly damaging to the agricultural sector. In 2019, Atlas Magazine reported on the economic
consequences of the impact of natural disasters on agriculture in Tunisia. The article highlighted that natural disasters Table 3: Estimation of the annual benefits and costs of degradation of Tunisian forests
caused losses of $172.3m to the Tunisian agricultural sector during the period 2011-2016. The 2017-2018 season alone
recorded 82 million TND ($33m) in damages. Of this damage, the Tunisian state covered only 6% of these losses, or 4.9
million TND ($1.9m), with the rest borne by the farmers.

According to a statement by the President of UTAP in January 2019, 12,000 farmers abandoned agricultural activity in 2018
due to the losses they recorded over the previous decade. The President stated that 80% of farmers are now experiencing a
difficult situation due to debt, the impact of climate change and the loss of the harvest. In identifying solutions, he highlighted
the need to establish a profitable and attractive agriculture for the investments, to encourage the use of new technologies
and to strengthen the adaptation to climate change.

Box 1: The 2018 floods in Cap Bon, Nabeul and Kasserine

Following record rainfall across the north of the country in late September 2018, Tunisia witnessed several major
floods across the region, particularly in Cap Bon, Nabeul and Kasserine.
The floods that in Cap Bon, caused serious damage, killing six people, and damaging nearly 1,856 houses and
24 hotels in the governorate of Nabeul. In the agricultural sector alone, economic losses linked to the floods are
estimated to be as high as 50.7 million TND (almost $18m); including approximately 26.6 million TND ($9.4m) in
damages and 24.1 million TND ($7.8m) in losses. This is detailed in the 2018 National Water Sector report. More
than 1,791 farmers declared claims to the Regional Development Agency, CRDA. Farmers of tree crops were the
most affected with 490 ha affected and 14,500 trees washed away – the damage and losses to this sub-sector alone
Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency of forest fires: some estimates
amount to more than $6.09m. Whilst the floods also damaged 864 hectares of vegetable crops and 1,000 hectares
of fruit trees, and over 200,000 poultry and 500 head of cattle were also lost. The livestock and fishing sub-sectors put the loss of forest area to fire at 180,000 ha by 2030. Furthermore, degradation of forests and rangelands
were also significantly impacted, recording damages and losses of more than $1.83m. through over-exploitation as well as deforestation constitute additional pressure on these ecosystems. In particular, the
Significant damage of over $6.3m was also reported on hydro-agricultural infrastructure, in particular on soil and cork grove, which is a forest formation mainly composed of cork oaks, maritime pines and pine nuts in the north west of
water conservation facilities and tracks. The smallest family farms, having lost all or part of their vegetable crops, the country, and more sparsely in Cap Bon and on the Tunisian Ridge, is a vulnerable ecosystem. It is estimated that this
were particularly affected by the floods with 846 ha affected and losses exceeding $2.77m over the season. type of forest is particularly vulnerable to fires, with a risk of loss of between 20-100 ha per year.

Rising sea levels are also expected to have a detrimental impact on the overall productivity of the agriculture sector.
According to the Atlas of the Vulnerability of the Tunisian Coastline the alternation between very dry periods and floods will
result in the loss of agricultural land through the loss of fertility due to erosion and hydromorphism. The use of salty water
for irrigation will increase the salination of lands and consequently reduce their productivity. Furthermore, sea level rises will
also result in the loss of coastal agricultural land with the submersion of 43,000 ha (all types of crops combined) including
9% of arboriculture, 14% of annual crops, 5.8% of irrigated crops, 49% of rangelands and 9.9% of various agricultural areas.
Cork forests are expected to undergo increasing pastoral pressure, whilst simulations show that the cork forests currently
classified as moderately vulnerable to water stress could, in the event of prolonged dry periods, undergo significant
diebacks, under climate change. Taking all this into account, Tunisia can therefore expect to see a serious weakening of
these ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide.
Impacts on olive yields are not yet modelled in detail, but estimated annual losses could be around
$228m by 2100

Forest fires and damage to ecosystems
Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency of forest fires: some estimates
put the loss of forest area to fire at 180,000 ha by 2030. Furthermore, degradation of forests and rangelands
through over-exploitation as well as deforestation constitute additional pressure on these ecosystems. In particular, the
cork grove, which is a forest formation mainly composed of cork oaks, maritime pines and pine nuts in the north west of
the country, and more sparsely in Cap Bon and on the Tunisian Ridge, is a vulnerable ecosystem. It is estimated that this
type of forest is particularly vulnerable to fires, with a risk of loss of between 20-100 ha per year.
Cork forests are expected to undergo increasing pastoral pressure, whilst simulations show that the cork forests currently
classified as moderately vulnerable to water stress could, in the event of prolonged dry periods, undergo significant
diebacks, under climate change. Taking all this into account, Tunisia can therefore expect to see a serious weakening of
these ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide.
The lack of in-depth studies and modelling at the national level does not yet provide a very clear vision of the impact of
climate change on the agriculture sector, especially given the impact is dependent on the agricultural techniques used (use
of phytosanitary products, irrigation, etc.), the socio-economic context of the agricultural sector (speculation, reconversion
of the sector, etc.) and the biophysical and climatic characteristics of the production regions.
However, initial studies, specifically the NAP RCP Study, indicate that alongside alternate bearing, the two major climate
factors driving yield in Tunisia are water availability and the number of hot days (40°C+). Wider studies have shown
that olive trees can be strongly affected by climate change, particularly in Mediterranean climates. For instance, rising
temperatures may change flowering timings and more extreme rainfall can damage flowers and reduce yields. Changing
temperatures may also lead to a gradual northward shift of current olive cultivation areas. This may have implications for
the distribution of olive farming in Tunisia.

36
L’economiste. 2017. ‘UTAP Code d’investment regard critique’.
37
Atlas Magazine. 29 April 2019. ‘Tunisie, le secteur agricole face aux catastrophes naturelles’ Available from: https://www.atlas-mag.net/article/tunisie-le-secteur-agricole-face-aux-catas-
trophes-naturelles
38
Espace Manager. 2019. ‘La Tunisie n’a pas de politique agricole, selon le président de l’UTAP’. Available from: https://www.espacemanager.com/la-tunisie-na-pas-de-politique-agricole-selon-
le-president-de-lutap.html 44
MARHP and GiZ, 2014. Studies of the vulnerability of three Tunisian ecosystems to climate change: the cork oak ecosystem.
39
MARHP, 2019. National Water Report ff 2018. 45
MARHP, 2016. Tunisia’s PIF investment plan - version of 09/30/2016 - Appendices
40
Atlas Magazine. 29 April 2019. ‘Tunisie, le secteur agricole face aux catastrophes naturelles’ 46
MARHP and GiZ. 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation du secteur agricole et des écosystèmes au changement climatique.
41
Ameur Oueslati, UNDP and APA. 2015. Atlas de la vulnérabilité du littoral tunisien à l’élévation du niveau marin. 47
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
42
Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the UNFCCC. 48
GiZ. 2013. The Tunisian olive grove in the face of climate change: method of analysis and case study for the governorate of Medenine. Available from:
43
MARHP and GiZ. 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation du secteur agricole et des écosystèmes au changement climatique. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277814725_L’oliveraie_tunisienne_face_au_changement_climatique_methode_d’analyse_et_etude_de_cas_pour_le_gouvernorat_de_Medenine

22 23
 As shown in table below, the indicates a drop in yields that would concern all governorates. The governorates of Sfax,
Sidi Bouzid, Kairouan and Mahdia, which represent more than half of national production, could experience decreases of
between 21-40% by 2100 under RCP 4.5 and between 51-86% by 2100 under RCP 8.5.
Table 4: Projection of olive oil yields to 2050 and 2100
A decrease in yield of 40% could generate a decrease the olive oil export contribution by at least 50% and reduce the share
of olive oil export in total Tunisian export to 1-2%. This is an expert estimation which takes into account the fact that the
reduction in yields will mean that some farmers will no longer even pick their olives, also because of the increase in the cost
of labour. Based on current export levels, this would amount to around $228m of direct losses, with potential further indirect
impacts via job losses or farm closures.
The NAP RCP Study indicates that by 2100, areas favourable for olive growing will decrease by approximately 14% (between
-27% and +7%, depending on climate models) for the RCP8.5 scenario and by approximately 5% (between -17% and +11%)
for the RCP4.5 scenario.

Box 2: Regional impacts: Case of Medenine Governorate

Olive and olive oil production is heavily influenced by climatic conditions. Although average production was 172,000 tonnes
over the period 2000-2018, this ranged from 30,000 tonnes in 2001 to 340,000 in 2015. While olive trees are drought
tolerant in general, there is a relationship between seasonal rainfall and olive oil production as drought and intense rainfall
at critical periods (e.g. flowering) can directly impact yields. In addition, there is evidence that older trees are highly exposed
to drought.
While rainfall is not the only factor driving exports, Figure 6 below shows that there is a general relationship between winter
rainfall and exports. One major other factor driving olive oil yields is the fact that olive trees are alternate bearing – meaning
that under certain conditions they begin a cycle of on years with a large number of small fruit, followed by off years where
trees produce larger but fewer fruit.
Figure 6: Olive oil exports and the effect of rainfall
According to an evaluation of the impacts of past drought on the sector, the olive grove of the governorate of
Medenine is particularly vulnerable to the effects of drought. The climate of Medenine characterises the climate of
the region and is an area likely to experience an aggravation under climate change. The analysis carried out on
the entire territory of the governorate aimed to assess the evolution of the soil’s suitability for olive growing. It was
estimated that in 2010 (baseline) 92%, or more than 180,000 ha, of olive plantations occupied areas with favourable
conditions (“medium” to “high” suitability). However, under the effect of climate change, this ratio will drop to around
87% and 75%, respectively by 2020 and 2050. Low suitability areas could drop from 8% (2010) to 25% by 2050.
The INM also produced a report on this issue. Comparing to the period between 2003-2012, report indicates that a
significant fluctuation is expected in the period 2030-2050, with a potential decrease in olive production of -60% by
2050. The most striking impact is in the long-term – with a potential estimated decrease in total olive production over
the period 2080-2100, of more than -43%. As the olive sector generates on average 50 million working days per
year, the reduction in national production by 43% due to climate change could reduce working days in this sector
by more than 50%.
Impact on date palm oases is less well-studied, but major risks could shift the areas where date palm
production is viable
Date palm faces similar risks as the rest of agriculture, with higher temperatures reducing crop quality and yield. However,
hotter temperatures and milder winters create conditions for growth of acarid mite populations - which is a major pest for
date production. Temperature and rainfall changes will result in shifts in flowering and pollination periods – this creates the
risk of male/female plants falling out of synchronisation.
Studies in Saudi Arabia show that viable growing areas for date palms could reduce by 8-10% by 2050 and 28-33% by
2100. Furthermore, these growing areas are shifting northwards, which indicates that future date palm cultivation should
be optimised for future climate patterns. Whilst this was only one study in Saudi Arabia, the methodology used could be
applied to Tunisia to help better understand climate risks. As noted above, Tunisia exported $258m of dates in 2019, so if
there was a similar impact in Tunisia, this would represent $20-26m export losses in 2050 and $72-85m in 2100 – these
are indicative figures only but show that a significant proportion of the economy is at risk.

Potential reduction in the cereal crop yields, resulting in increase in cereal imports and food insecurity

During prolonged droughts, significant losses of cereal crops have been observed in Tunisia, especially in the north-
western areas. Considering Tunisia already imports between 55-60% of its cereal needs, this has important implications
for food security.
Research carried out in 2007 indicates that, under the effect of the drought, the areas of irrigated cereals would decrease
by 20% by 2020, affecting mainly the central and southern regions of Tunisia. Under climate change, droughts would
also affect the productivity of cereals by reducing their growth period. In addition, it is expected that the period and
temperatures required for soil cooling for plant germination will no longer be sufficient. This is likely to contribute to a
general disruption of the agricultural season, with a reduction in the productivity window. Droughts related to climate
change are also expected to affect speculation in rain-fed cereals. Figures provided in the 2007 Agriculture Adaptation
Strategy indicated a potential area reduction of around 30% in 2030, or a reduction from 1.5 million ha to around 1 million
ha by 2030.

49
Table taken from MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021 p. 61. MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study. Modelling of the Béja region showed that the yields of the three key cereal crops (durum wheat, common wheat and
50
Gargouri et al. 2008. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Olive Growing in Tunisia Using GIS Tools. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mohamed-Ghrab/publi- barley) are expected to be affected by climatic variables. By 2030, the Béja region could record losses in cereal yields of
cation/268394805_Assessment_of_the_impact_of_climate_change_on_olive_growing_in_Tunisia_using_GIS_tools/links/54b9132b0cf269d8cbf72ebc/Assessment-of-the-impact-of-climate-
change-on-olive-growing-in-Tunisia-using-GIS-tools.pdf around 2.04%, 9.62% and 6.78% respectively for durum wheat, common wheat and barley.
51
Team analysis based on precipitation data from CRU TS - Harris I, Osborn TJ, Jones P and Lister D (2020) Version 4 of the CRU TS Monthly HighResolution Gridded Multivariate Climate The NAP RCP Study also provided projections of yield variation for durum wheat, soft wheat and barley compared to the
Dataset. Scientific Data (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020- 0453-3). Export data from UN COMTRADE https://comtrade.un.org/
52
GiZ. 2013. The Tunisian olive grove in the face of climate change: method of analysis and case study for the governorate of Medenine. reference period for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios by 2050 and 2100. As documented Table 4, under both scenarios the
53
INM. Assessment of the impact of climate change on olive production in the region of Medenine. Cited in Government of Tunisia. 2019. Tunisia’s Third National Communication as part of the impact is likely to be felt on yield levels - even as early as 2050, with soft wheat anticipated to be the most affected crop.
UNFCCC.
54
MARHP, AFD and BRL Ingénierie, 2016. Tunisian Climate Change complementary study for the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
55
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. NAP Food Security Report.
56
Farooq et al. 2021. Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model. Available from : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2021.101394
57
Gafrej/ 2016. ‘With climate change, what future for agriculture in Tunisia?.’ CIHEAM, Watch Letter n°37 – September 2016. Available from: https://www.ciheam.org/uploads/attach-
ments/277/033_Gafrej_WL_37.pdf
58
GIz and Ministry of agriculture, 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation du secteur agricole et des écosystèmes au changement climatique
61
Chebil. A, Mtimet N., and Tizaoui H., 2011. Impact of climate change on the productivity of cereal crops in the region of Béjà (Tunisia). AfJARE Vol 6 No 2 September 2011.
59
Gafrej R.. 2016. ‘Tunisian agriculture facing climate change’ - CIHEAM Watch Letter n ° 37,
62
This table has been extracted from the MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action 2020. NAP RCP Study.
60
MARHP and GiZ. 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation du secteur agricole et des écosystèmes au changement climatique.
63
Chebbi and all, 2019. Rapport de synthèse sur l’agriculture en Tunisie
64
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.

24 25
 Table 5: Yield variation in% compared to the reference period for the scenarios RCP4.5 and
8.5 for 2050 and 2100

Tunisia already mostly imports cereals (wheat and corn), which came at a cost of more than $735 million in 2017 and
constituted more than 31% of its total agricultural imports. In 2017, the dependency rates on imported cereals were
estimated at 88.96% for soft wheat, 42.54% for durum wheat and 55.04% for barley. A decrease in national production
of cereals and the increase in population (+1.2 million inhabitants) could increase import demand by 600-900 thousand
tonnes.
Given both the yield decrease and the decrease of area favourable to cereals, cereals contribution to the agricultural
GDP (as it stands today) could be fall by 30% by 2050 and 50% by 2100. Job losses in this sub-sector may be up to a
magnitude of around 30% by 2050.
Impacts on livestock are poorly studied – modelling generally indicates a downward trend in fodder production but the
projected scale of this trend varies significantly between models.
Based on the NAP RCP Study, fodder production is projected to generally follow a general downward trend in production
in the future. Taking the median of all the models, fodder yield could fall by 12-22% by 2050 and up to 40% by 2100.
However, it is important to note that the models used in this study have a very low level of agreement between them,
which illustrates the uncertainty around projecting fodder production.

Sector Analysis:
Box 3: Findings from the Agriculture Focus Group Discussions

In August and September 2021, the researchers facilitated two focus groups with representatives from government
bodies, research institutions, local organisations, farmer unions and NGOs, to discuss how climate change
impacts the agricultural sector. In both sessions, topics of conversation centred on the issues of water security and
management and the impact on productivity and income. It is clear from the focus group findings that farmers are Fisheries 4
already facing the impacts of climate change in their work. Indeed, one farmer recalled how they were once sceptical
about climate change, however through witnessing the climatic variations of the 1990s and 2000s, they are now fully
convinced change is occurring; farmers and now seeing problems that they have never seen in the past.
Participants stated that increased water scarcity, caused by reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and reservoirs
drying up, have already caused disastrous consequences for framers. Water supplies in Monastir, for instance, have
been cut off every day for three years, whilst whole regions have had no water for irrigation since Ramadan 2021. This
shortage has noticeably increased soil salinity and diminished productivity, particularly in years of drought. Indeed,
a member of National Olive Oil Office (ONH) noted changes in productivity of up to 50% in a given year depending
on annual rainfall, whilst another participant noted that irrigated olive trees represent just 7% of production, but
there are some years when the only production comes from irrigated areas. This has real implications for farmers
income and job security – which were particularly emphasised as the major fears surrounding the impacts of climate
change – further materialising in retention rates of farmers, many of whom are in the process of selling their land
to non-farmers.
With farmers increasingly desperate, several participants suggested they were aware of farmers resorting to
illegal drilling for water, further applying pressure to water levels, and buying water (at 10 TND per m3) – a finding
supported by the desk review. Meanwhile, Regional Commissariats for Agricultural Development (CRDAs) have
been ‘harassed’ by farmers to supply them with more water. However, despite insistent calls for adaption and/
or reform in the water management sector, action has been limited, with CRDAs apparently conveying advise
parameters from the 1980s. More generally, participants suggested the state has for too long emphasised the
objective of increased productivity which has been to the detriment of sustainability, and this needs to be addressed.
Furthermore, farmer indebtedness has restricted the ability of farmers to act independently of the state, for instance
by investing in new crops and crop rotation (which is reportedly less developed that other countries in Africa facing
drought).
Participants were quick to point to potential adaptation measures which should be pursued. Several participants
focussed on the adaption efforts in Spain, which has undergone similar challenges in its agricultural sector, as a
good model for implementation. For instance, Spanish law prohibits olive oil extraction systems that consume a
lot of water, whilst authorities encourage the use of olive varieties and new crops (such a rapeseed) which are
draught resistant/require less water by providing subsides for these products. Participants also suggested CRDAs
be setup with the necessary means to sensitise farmers to climate change impacts and adaption measures, in an
effort to popularise new practices and technologies, whilst the role of each actor in the sector (farmers, CRDAs,
central government, unions, research institutions) need to be more clearly defined and brought together to ensure
efficient and timely action in the face of climate change. Where adaption has been able to take place, results have

26

Overview of the Tunisian fishing sector
Fishing is a small but significant part of the economy that is regionally specific
Fishing occupies an important place in the socio-economic life of Tunisia. With a coastline of 2290 km, and 12 lakes
and lagoons which cover approximately 1300 km,2 Tunisia has natural assets favourable to the development of fishing
and aquaculture. From 2007-2016 fishing contributed 7.5% of the value of agricultural production and 15.2% of the
value of agricultural exports with annual production of 126,000 tonnes in 2016 and worth around 350 million Euros
(approximately $407m).
Aquaculture has grown rapidly and continues to be a major focus of sector development
Aquaculture has grown by 16.4% in the last decade largely as a result of a deliberate strategy to develop the sub-sector,
particularly in the northern regions of the country. A marked increase in catch volumes from 2011 (see Figure 9 below), which
was largely driven by aquaculture production, which rose from 3463 tonnes in 2007 to 16 323 tonnes in 2016.
Aquaculture is seen as a key response to the depletion of stocks - in 2017, aquaculture produced 16,323 tonnes, of which
more than 80% came from marine fish farming, which are sold on international markets, whereas freshwater species are
sold domestically. Marine farms are found to the north of Sfax, while inland aquaculture is mainly in the north (see Figure
10 below).

Coastal and artisanal fishing currently provides 25% of production, whilst continental and maritime aquaculture
contributes to 13% of national production. The coast has three fishing zones: north, east and south, with the Gulf of
Gabes as Tunisia’s largest fishing region - 80% of fishing takes place in the governorates of Monastir, Sfax, Nabeul,
Mahdia and Medenine. European pilchard and other small pelagics (species that live in the open sea) contributed for 25
percent of the catch, but the most valuable species caught were octopus and cuttlefish, tunas as well as shrimp.
During the period (2012-2016), the average exports of fishery products amounted to 21.9 thousand tons (17.5% of total
production). In 2017, the export value reached a peak of 410.4 million TND (around $146m). The majority of exported
quantities are oriented towards the markets from the European Union - mainly Italy and Spain.

Figure 6: Process of cement

Fishing plays an important social and cultural role in Tunisia – particularly for some of the most
marginalised in Tunisia

Fishing generates around 50,000 direct jobs, of which around two thirds are coastal and artisanal fishermen. In total, the
sector indirectly generates around 100,000 jobs.
Very little gender-differentiated data exists. Nevertheless, whilst fishing appears to be predominantly a male occupation in
Tunisia, clam digging in particular is the main source of income for poorer women in the South - employing between 5000
and 7000 women each year for a short period. Processing and exporting is also predominantly female.

Fishing is an integral part of Tunisia’s cultural heritage. In 2020, charfia fishing (plural: cherafi) was registered on the UNESCO
Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. Cherafi are a form of fixed fishery that uses palm fronds
to channel fish into capture chambers and the practice is very old in the Mediterranean and continues today, particularly on
the coasts of the Gulf of Gabes around the island of Djerba but also further north, in the Kerkennah archipelago. Cherafi are
typically seasonal, only installed and operated between the autumn equinox and June to ensure fish populations have a rest
period. The number of fixed fisheries has declined considerably in recent years from several thousands to only 16 today in Main climate related impacts and risks on the sector
La Chebba, 428 in Kerkennah archipelago and 2 to 3 on the island of Djerba. In Kerkennah in particular, charfia fishing is
the main source of livelihood and deeply integrated into society. Climate change is likely to have major consequences for sea conditions – although there is still a need for further study
specific to Tunisia. The mean sea level across the Mediterranean Basin rose by 1.4 mm/yr during the 20th century and has
accelerated to 2.8 mm/yr recently (1993–2018). By 2090, sea level near Tunis is likely to rise by 0.2 to 0.8 m. As noted at
The industry faces a range of wider challenges such as overfishing and ecosystem changes
the outset, the Mediterranean Sea surface waters are warming and its deep waters are becoming saltier and, due to the
The excessive exploitation of certain fishery resources, the increase in fuel prices, the lack of qualified labour and pollution
increase in atmospheric CO2, is also becoming more acid.
(especially in the Gulf of Gabes), are the main challenges facing the fishing sector. During the last decade, overexploitation,
These changes have a complex interaction with the fishing sector which are not yet fully understood in detail. Furthermore,
excessive fishing and fishing in prohibited areas or with prohibited gear constituted a major threat. These elements are the
climate change is only one of several human impacts on fish in the Mediterranean. Combined with the lack monitoring data,
result of an acute crisis in the governance of these resources, with weak coordination in the public sphere of a vast set of
it is challenging to have a more definitive analysis of climate impact on the sector. However, existing work as analysed in the
actors and this lack of political support and material resources.
desk review for this study, highlights several key impacts.
There is also real competition in the sector between industrial fishermen who seek to maximise their profit, and artisanal
fishermen who are affected by the destruction of coastal biotopes and the decline in the resources available to them.
This alone represents a threat to the economic and social balance on the coast. The increase in production, value and
exports observed in recent years is fragile and its vulnerabilities are likely to increase with the combined effects of declining
resources and the negative impacts of climate change.

28 29
Reduction in production of currently fished and farmed species

As noted above, the most important caught fish are pilchards and small pelagics, with octopus, cuttlefish, tuna and shrimp
also important species (due to their higher value). In aquaculture, sea-bream, sea bass and blue tuna are the main species.
Warmer seas and changing currents are likely to lead to changes in the distribution of species across the Mediterranean
and in particular, changing circulation patterns for pelagic fish. The exact details of this will vary by species – but overall it Loss of culturally significant fixed fishing areas, hitting some of the
is expected that pelagic yields will continue to fall and that diseases can be expected to increase in farmed fish populations most vulnerable communities hardest.
as pathogens are not affected by the projected rise in temperature, but key fish are (seabream in particular shows lower
thermal tolerance than sea bass). Studies to date indicate that temperature is a much more significant factor that salinity.

Increase in non-native species brings challenges, but experience has shown that this can result in
increased production – although this requires changes in tastes and preferences

The changing distribution of fish species also means an increase in non-native species. This continues a trend that has been
accelerating in recent decades, as documented in Figure 15, where the green and purple colours dominate, which represent
new sightings between 2001-2010 and post-2010 respectively.
Some of these species have negative impacts, for example the pearl oyster (Pinctada radiata imbricata), the spider crab
(Libinia dubia) and the blue crab (Portunus segnis) are classified as the «worst invasives» and appear in the International
Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) blacklist as they have major impacts on ecosystems and economic activities.
However some species, although seen as invasive, can present opportunity. For example, the Red Sea shrimp (Metapenaeus
monoceros), which was initially considered a threat to the native species but has since been accepted as a new product by
Tunisians, with its price rising from 4 TND to 35 TND.
The blue crab (Portunus segnis) was initially perceived negatively as it damaged fishing nets. However, with targeted
support, small fisherman have adapted to fish these crabs, particularly for the export market.
Sea level rises, even in the case of the most optimistic scenario, will undoubtedly lead to a loss of fishing areas for the
Figure 8: Cumulative emissions reduction Kerkennah archipelago perhaps as high as 15,000 ha (or 20% less) when compared to 2018 under RCP 4.5. losses under
RCP 8.5 would rise higher again to 73,000 ha (90% reduction). Under either scenario, this ancestral activity which is part of
the national heritage would be heavily compromised.

Box 4: Impact on cultural heritage

Initial modelling (NAP report) shows that overall marine catch yields could actually increase if new species can be adopted
into the market. These figures should be used with caution as they are based on one model using simplified parameters that
do not take full account of wider issues in the sector.
The Mediterranean fishing heritage, respectful of the environment, is today in a precarious situation. In addition
to the drastic drop in profitability, fixed fisheries face the challenges of climate change. This activity, being mainly
practiced on the shallows of the Kerkennah archipelago, will experience a decline in suitable areas. Indeed, with a
sea level rise of one meter, the establishment of these fixed fisheries, based on palm branches, will be condemned
in the shallows. As a result, their numbers will decline further despite being an activity on which the local island
population depends for their food security. The fragmentation of the archipelago into a larger number of islets is
likely to modify the current, the fixation of Posidonia meadows and consequently, further compromise this artisanal
fishing.

Loss of clam digging areas will hit women in the south hardest

Clam digging is a family level activity, practiced mainly by women from the poorest regions of the governorates of Sfax, Gabès
and Medenine. Depending on the year, the number of collectors can vary from 4000 to 8000 people. Despite the fact that it is
an activity whose product has a high commercial value and is intended almost exclusively for export (92%), the seasonality
of the activity, the scarcity of stocks, insalubrity and the prohibition of clam marketing increases the precariousness of
populations whose incomes are dependent on it. Clam digging is carried out at the foreshore (tidal swing zone) at low tide
- sea level rises will considerably restrict the area for this activity. Likewise, floods, drain large amounts of nutrients into
the sea that can modify the structure of plankton communities and in some cases promote the occurrence of harmful algal
blooms. The NAP RCP Study indicates that under RCP 8.5, the foreshore collection zone, which currently stands at 3050
ha, would be reduced by almost half by 2100, with a loss of up to 1420 ha. Given the large number of women employed in
this sub-sector, this will have significant gendered impacts.

Overall fishery production has the potential to increase – but only if the transition to new fishing
practices is well managed

Given the complex set of changes highlighted above, initial estimates indicate that fishing potential in Tunisia could increase
65
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
66
Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, which draw from statistics from the Directorate General of Fisheries and Aquaculture (DGPAq),
67
MARHP, 2018. Summary report. Study of the vulnerability of the fishing sector and aquaculture to climate change in Tunisia.
68
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
69
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
70
MARHP, 2018. Summary report. Study of the vulnerability of the fishing sector and aquaculture to climate change in Tunisia.
71
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
72
US Food and Agricultural Service Tunis using google maps.
73
Cascarano M.C. et al. 2021. Mediterranean Aquaculture in a Changing Climate: Temperature Effects on Pathogens and Diseases of Three Farmed Fish Species in Pathogens, 10(9), 1205. 77
MARHP, 2018. Summary report. Study of the vulnerability of the fishing sector and aquaculture to climate change in Tunisia.
Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10091205 78
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
74
Ounifi-Ben Amor et al., 2016. Update of alien fauna and new records from Tunisian marine waters. Medit. Mar. Sci., 17/1, 2016, 124-143. 79
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.
75
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. Food Security Report.
76
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. 2020. NAP RCP Study.

30 31

Table 7: Projection of marine fishing potential for 2050 and 2100
By 2050, the production potential of marine fishing is projected to increase by 50,000 tonnes
compared to the 1990-2010 average (+56%) and more than double by 2100. However, this development
will largely depend on the intensity of the fishing effort, as well as the management of stocks, and other factors already
mentioned such as pollution and acidification. In other words, it is critical for the Government of Tunisia and all the
stakeholders to learn how to change fishing practices without causing further harm to the marine environment.
Climate change is one of many factors affecting the fishing industry and cannot be viewed in isolation.
Overall fishery production in Tunisia has the potential to increase – but only if the transition to new fishing practices is
sustainably managed
The fishing sector in Tunisia is currently undergoing gradual changes that will lead to profound changes in the long-term.
The impacts of climate change are intertwined with overfishing, changing dietary habits and wider
environmental change, so cannot be seen in isolation. Such comprehensive modelling of the sector
is lacking at present, so a more robust economic analysis of the sector is not possible at this stage –
however initial indications are that the net impact at a national scale could be positive, but there could be highly negative
impacts at local scale – particularly for some of the most vulnerable.
In addition, there remain significant gaps – most notably in understanding the impacts of ocean acidification and the potential
impacts of extreme weather for fishing infrastructure and number of fishing days. Higher temperatures may also increase
post-catch losses – this is not a well analysed area of fishing policy.
Based on the limited studies to date, the economic impact expected is the loss of employment for at
least 20% and a decrease of their income of 30% to 50% but with the valorisation of new species and
the increase of tonnage yields in marine fisheries, the impact on national income could be positive
and could reach + 29% by 2030 and 56% by 2050. The fisheries GDP will not necessarily decrease and maybe
increase if adaptations and significant investments accompany these changes. This will also require a significant transition
in fishing practices and cultures that will take time and will have unevenly distributed impacts.
80
MARHP and AFD Adapt’Action. April 2021. NAP Food Security Study.
32
Box 5: Findings from the Fisheries Focus Group Discussions
In August and September 2021, the researchers facilitated two focus groups with representatives from government
bodies, research institutions, local organisations, professional groups and NGOs, to discuss how climate change
impacts the fisheries sector. In both sessions, topics of conversation centred on invasive species and fish stocks,
sea salinity and temperature, and the disproportional impact on small scale fishing operations.
Changes caused by climate change have already started to impact the sector. A representative from the National
Institute of Marine Technologies confirmed that fishermen have noticed changes, even if they do not attribute this
directly to climate change, including warming seas, increased salinity and changes to fish stocks (including available
changes in local species).
With these changes to waters, invasive species have entered Tunisian waters, including, most notably, jellyfish
and plankton, which in turn impact the wider ecosystem and balances in other species. Similarly, shark and turtle
stocks have also greatly reduced, which is particularly important given their role in regulating the food chain. A
turtles sex is determined by the temperature of the water in nesting sites (meaning there is a gender imbalance
within local populations) whilst sharks have fled to cooler waters. Furthermore, a representative from the Tunisian
Union of Agriculture and Fisheries (UTAP) confirmed there has been a recent free fall in the stock of clams due to
rising sea levels and increased temperatures. Exaggerating these changes, pollution released from land, from the
chemical group, oil companies and National Office of Sanitation of Tunisia (ONAS) stations is impacting Tunisian
seas. In particular, high levels of pollution have been seen in the Gulf of Gabes (the nursery of the Mediterranean)
threatening local fish stocks. Combined with the impact of climate change, Tunisian waters are now undergoing
great change. This problem has long been noted by individuals and organisations alike working in the sector,
however, participants suggested it was unclear if anything had been done to rectify the issue. Funds must be
allocated to repair the necessary infrastructure and ONAS stations, whilst improvements need to be made to the
regulations around the release of pollution.
These changes have had clear impacts on fishermen. UTAP confirmed that productivity and income for fishermen,
particularly local, small scale, fishermen, is falling. Meanwhile, the free fall of clam stocks has particularly affected
women who have found themselves unable to achieve an income based on the premature closure of the clam
season. As further evidence of the impact on income, compensation was paid to over 2,500 fishermen who were
affected by the red tide (the proliferation of planktonic bloom which impacted the fishing sectors) following rising
sea temperatures. This is unlikely to have covered all the costs to all fishermen, however. With these changes,
participants flagged they were personally aware of more fishermen resorting to illegal fishing to secure the resources
needed to keep their operations going. They also noted this has knock-on effects to stocks and the sustainability of
the sector.
Fisherman have adapted as best they can to these alterations. For instance, as noted in the report, many have been
able to exploit the proliferation of blue crab, especially the larger fishing operations, with the aid of the government.
However, small artisanal fishermen depend on the state to support them because their means are limited – for
instance they require subsides for updating their own fishing equipment. Other adaption measures called for during
the sessions included: the levelling up, and protection from rising sea levels, of port infrastructure; the setting
up of formal subsidy and compensation mechanisms to help small fishermen adapt to large scale events; the
strengthening of the system controlling illegal fishing; and a greater emphasis on fighting pollution.
33
 Overview of Tunisia’s Tourism Sector
Tourism occupies an important place in the Tunisian economy
Tourism contributes to approximately 14.2% of Tunisia’s GDP and provides 100,000 direct and 289,000
indirect jobs. In 2019, over 9.4 million tourists (29 million overnight stays) were recorded.

Table 8: Tourism Indicators

COVID-19 has led to high levels of debt

However, in 2020, the sector experienced a crisis due to COVID-19, witnessing a 65% drop in revenue. According to the
Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), tourism receipts reached only 706 million TND ($254.6m) in the year to June 20 2021, which
is 34% lower than in the same period of 2020 and about 75% lower than in the same period of 2019, before the COVID-19

Sector Analysis:
pandemic hit. The sector has debts of more than 5 billion TND ($1.8bn), more than half of which were in default; almost half

5
of all hotels were meanwhile shut down, with the others suffering severe financial difficulties.

Energy Sector:
Pursuing recovery of the sector, the Government of Tunisia has rescheduled credits granted to tourism professionals,

Tourism provided a bonus for technically unemployed employees, abolished late payment penalties for the payment of social
contributions, and extended the deadlines for (i) the declarations of taxes; and (ii) the vaccination of tourism workers in
order to secure the route of tourists. Despite these measures, subsequent waves of COVID-19 cases and associated travel
5
restrictions, alongside recent political unrest, have continued to prevent the sector from recovering.
Literature review

81
Office National du Tourisme Tunisien (ONTT) available via http://www.ins.tn/statistiques/129
82
Ibid.
83
Statistics in this section are from the Tunisian Central Bank, cited on the French Ministry of Tourism website « Veille Info Tourisme ». Previosuly available from: https://www.veilleinfotourisme.fr
 During the winter, Tunisia could attract a clientele of European retirees in search of warmth. The southern Mediterranean
The main climate-related impacts and risks on the sector could become less attractive because of the decrease in thermal comfort, while the destinations in the northern Mediterranean
and in the northern Europe would be more attractive because of more temperate climatic conditions favourable to tourism.
Water stress may have a more significant negative impact than temperature changes
Tourism in Tunisia is particularly exposed to climate change due to several factors: As noted at the outset, climate change scenarios for Tunisia all indicate a significant decrease in rainfall with an increase in
the frequency of violent events (floods, thunderstorms). As a result, it is estimated that groundwater resources will reduce
Tourism in Tunisia is mainly based along the coast, with infrastructures located on the seafront, being by 28% and surface water by 5% by 2030. This has important consequences for tourism. Tunisian tourism will face such
greatly exposed to the rise in sea levels – causing their degradation and beach erosion – and extreme risks as:
events;
Lack of drinking water supply especially in overcrowded areas and islands;
The development of seaside tourism has generated anthropogenic pressure on the coast which
aggravates its fragility; Lack of water supply to tourist facilities like swimming pools and golf courses;

The peak period for tourism is concentrated in the summer, making it vulnerable to extreme heat; The degradation of aquatic environments and water bodies developed for recreation, including the
pollution of beaches by wadis, the clogging of wastewater treatment plants and water pollution; and
The sector depends on the quality and availability of water resources for swimming pools, thalasso
therapy, irrigation of golf courses etc.; and Increased tension between different uses of water supplies (e.g. agriculture vs tourism)

The sector depends on the quality of bathing water in coastal areas (algae, jellyfish, etc.). Food supply chains will be stressed which may negatively affect tourism
Food supply disruption, caused by water stress, changing climatic conditions, the loss of land due to the retreat of the
As with fisheries, these risks could potentially exacerbate an already precarious sector reeling from the impact of COVID-19 coastline, water salinisation and the degradation of coastal ecosystems and fishery resources would increase prices which
and a global drop in tourism levels, while new opportunities also emerge. will have repercussions on operating costs and may even affect availability, which would negatively impact tourism.
Additional costs may arise from indirect impacts on the sector
Sea level rise reduces beach area and increases flood risk Other additional costs for the tourism sector include:
Rising operating costs: water and food supply costs, energy costs for air conditioning;
Data collected over recent years show that beach retreat from the shore is continuing at rates between 0.5 and 1.5m/yr, but it
is not uncommon to record speeds close to 5m per year in specific locations. It is estimated that beaches recede one meter Costs linked to the degradation of the coastline: decline of beaches, deposits of algae, erosion,
for every rise in sea level of one centimetre – which, using INM scenarios means a potential beach loss of 20-80 metres degradation of infrastructure which leads to the need for investments to remedy it (recharging of
by 2090. The loss of beaches has a direct impact on Tunisia as a tourism destination, but also increases risk of flooding of sandy beaches, construction of protective structures);
coastal areas, intrusion of saline waters into groundwater and loss of biodiversity. The most affected coasts in Tunisia are
the Gulf of Hammamet, Djerba Island and Kerkennah Island.
Loss of earnings resulting from a possible drop in visitors; and
The 2012 National Coastal Adaptation Strategy carried out by the Ministry of Environment in 2012 provides some insights
Rising air transport prices due to carbon pricing, which will put pressure on accommodation prices.
as to the cost of rising sea levels on the tourism sector. The Strategy estimates the loss of productive capital
(beaches, soil, water, infrastructure), following a sea level rise of 50cm, at around 3.6bn TND ($1.2bn).
Loss of jobs
Rising temperatures will shift tourism seasons and may lead to changes in destination preferences – which could have both
positive and negative consequences for Tunisia
According to the 2012 Coastal Adaptation Study direct job losses corresponding to a sea level rise of 50 cm are estimated
at 1012 jobs, or 1% of direct tourism employment. Per region, this would account for a loss of:
Climate change manifests itself in warmer temperatures that create hotter summers and milder winters. Thus, it is estimated
that the bathing season in Tunisia will lengthen by one month for an increase in temperature of 2°C by 2050. But the thermal
173 jobs in Hammamet Nord and Nabeul;
comfort of tourists will be reduced because of the increase in the number of excessively hot days, particularly in the south of
the country. This may lead to tourists choosing colder destinations, elsewhere.
105 jobs in HammametSud;
This rise in temperatures will result in longer inter-seasons (autumn and spring) which is favourable
for tourism and may result in the extension of seaside days to the north. However, southern regions 333 jobs in Sousse Nord; and
will experience a decrease in thermal comfort for tourists seeking to visit the Sahara and an increase
in heat stroke and discomfort, especially for the elderly. 400 jobs in Djerba.

A change in tourist destinations may therefore take place nationally and internationally. At the national level, mountainous This calculation is based on the difference in the average employment ratio between beachfront hotels (1 permanent job for
regions such as the Tebessa Mountains or the regions of the high steppes could attract tourists with an offer of tourism of 10 beds) and indoor hotels (one permanent job for 15 beds). In addition, indirect job losses will also take place, particularly
freshness and discovery (hiking, ecotourism), while the Saharan regions would be less attractive, especially during summer. in the service and craft sector.

84
UNWTO, UNEP and WMO. 2007. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector.
85
Thalassotherapy comes from the Greek word «thalassa» meaning «sea». It refers to a variety of treatments that use saltwater and seaweed, each designed to cleanse, soothe and revitalise
the skin and body, and, in some cases, to improve circulation and muscle tone.
86
Ministre de l’Equipment, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et du Développement Durable and GiZ. 2010. Tourisme et changement climatique en Tunisie: Evaluation des impacts environnemen-
taux et socioéconomiques du changement climatique sur les principales activités touristiques en Tunisie (hereinafter Tourism and Climate Change Impact Study).
87
MEDD and UNDP. 2012. The National Coastal Adaptation Strategy.
88
The review of international literature shows that the relationship between temperature and demand is not linear and needs a complex model to establish.

36 37
 Box 6: Findings from the Tourism Focus Group Discussions

In August and September 2021, the researchers facilitated two focus groups with representatives from government
bodies, research institutions, local organisations and hoteliers/business owners, to discuss how climate change
impacts the tourism sector. In both sessions, topics of conversation centred on the issues of rising sea levels, higher
temperatures and reduced water supplies as well as the cost implications of adapting to the linked impacts.
Rising sea levels, and the associated increased level of erosion, was particularly drawn out as a major impact of
climate change already impacts on the sector’s profitability. Several participants noted beach width had already
noticeably reduced and this has also caused sand to be washed away, revealing large rocks along local beaches,
diminishing the attractiveness and suitability of the beach for tourism. Perhaps even more consequential is the
increase in the erosion of land on which many of Tunisia’s hotels are built, threatening their very existence. To
counter increased erosion, several hoteliers have resorted to investing in expensive sea defences for their property.
After failing to obtain financial support from APAL and struggling to obtain the authorisations necessary to act at
their own expense, one hotelier invested in 500 000 TND worth of riprap to stop their hotel from collapsing into the
sea whilst another hotelier confirmed they spent 600 000 TND on a similar project, after waiting more than a year for
a response from APAL. Despite these large investments, hoteliers are limited in what they can do without financial
support and delays in authorisation for such projects only increase the impact of erosion and makes adaption efforts
potentially ineffective.
The other direct climate change effect having an impact on the sectors profitability is increased temperatures.
Several participants noted there has been a significant increase in the use of, and costs related to, air conditioning
over the last decade. One hotelier noted how in the past, air conditioning was never used before June and after
October, today however tourists request air conditioning much earlier in the year and well into October. Indeed, a
participant from the Tunisian Hotel Association (FTH) confirmed that costs related to air conditioning had increased
by 10% in recent years, a problem which is exacerbated by the poor energy efficiency and insultation of buildings.
Similarly, with increased temperatures, hotels have generally increased water usage, mostly in relation to watering
gardens and turf, further stressing water availability across Tunisia. Again the representative of the FTH confirmed
that the industry represents 2% of water consumption in Tunisia, but there is nothing that encourages hoteliers to
save water.
Given the precarious nature of tourism in Tunisia, especially following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,
participants highlighted that it was extremely difficult for hotels to invest in adaption and mitigation measures.
Generally speaking, the tourist infrastructure in Tunisia is starting to age and promoters no longer invest in seaside

Conclusion and
resorts given the shifting preferences of tourists who often favour cultural and adventure holidays above the low-

6
cost seaside resorts. This lack of available funds is further hindered by bureaucracy and out of date legal texts. One
hotelier suggested they had previously attempted to set up a solar panel site with neighbouring hotels to reduce

recommendations
costs and increase efficiency – photovoltaics can cost up to 300 000 TND to install – however the regulations did
not allow for this. Other hoteliers have experienced similar issues in setting up shared wastewater treatment plants.
Participants were almost unanimous in their calls for the State to encourage pooled projects.
Throughout the discussion, participants continually pointed to areas of improvement and potential adaption/
mitigation measures which should be pursued. Firstly, awareness of climate change, its impact, and the already
available programmes to counter the worst impacts – programmes such as the Protection Fund for Tourist Areas,
the Green Climate Fund (promoters must put together this application), I’Agence Nationale de Maitrise de l’Energie
(ANME) programmes such as the energy audit and the Tunisian Solar Programme (PROSOL) project for collective
installations – must be developed throughout the sector. More generally, greater financial packages, and technical
assistance, need to be provided to the tourism sector. For the most part, hoteliers and other workers in the tourism
industry want to adapt and mitigate to climate change, but they lack the technical know-how and funds to do so.
As suggested above, government bodies (in particular APAL), should also be empowered to support these efforts.
Finally, the modernisation programme of the sector, previously announced and pursued by the ministry, needs to be
reactivated, supporting the diversification of the sector and eco- and cultural tourism.

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GIZ and MARHP. 2007. Stratégie nationale d’adaptation de l’agriculture tunisienne et des écosystèmes aux changements climatiques. Available from: http://www.environnement.gov.tn/PICC/
wp-content/uploads/Strat%C3%A9gie-nationale-d%E2%80%99adaptation-de-l%E2%80%99agriculture.pdf
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Ministre de l’Equipment, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et du Développement Durable and GiZ. 2010. Tourism and Climate Change Impact Study.
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MEDD and UNDP. 2012. The national coastal adaptation strategy.
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“ Ministre de l’Equipment, de l’Aménagement du Territoire et du Développement Durable and GiZ. 2010. Tourism and Climate Change Impact Study.

Climate change is already being felt across the Tunisian economy and is a major challenge for the future of Tunisia and
Tunisians. There is no comprehensive analysis of impacts and this report only aimed to bring together existing work to
clearly communicate what is understood and extrapolate where possible what type of changes could be expected based on
existing data. There remain some gaps and significant uncertainties, but there are some clear priorities that emerge:
Tunisia is very exposed to climate change – its future climate will be hotter and drier, with changes to
key seasonal rainfall. Sea level is projected to rise, with an increase in salinity and acidification.
This exposure creates a cocktail of risk for agriculture, fisheries and tourism – that compounds
existing risks in these sectors.
Olive and olive oil production will be affected by water availability and an increased number of hot
days. This will be one of the main ways that climate will be felt by farmers and could result in annual
export losses in the order of $228m by 2100.
Dates are less well understood but at risk of viability – changing climate could increase pests and
shifts in critical flowering and pollination periods. There is no specific analysis in Tunisia, but based
on estimates of impacts in similar countries, $20-26m of exports could be at risk in 2050 and $72-85m
in 2100.
Cereal production will be severely affected with potential reductions of 30-50% in contribution to
agricultural GDP by 2100 and 30% job losses by 2050. This will further stress self-sufficiency and will
increase import dependency.
The fishing industry will change dramatically and dynamically, with losses of existing species and
increase in non-native species. Non-native species will bring both risk and opportunity – with the
right transition, yields of marine fisheries could actually increase. Aquaculture will continue to be
significant, but the main farmed fish species are at increased risk of disease.
Indirect risks are also important for tourism. In particular, water stress is a major issue for tourism, particularly in peak
summer dates and could pose a bigger risk than increases in temperature.
This report also highlights the incomplete nature of the existing analyses, in particular there are three priority knowledge
gaps:
Quantifying risks at sub-sector level – Tunisia’s agriculture, fishing and tourism sectors have
particular challenges, which are not yet well understood at a sub-sector level (e.g. the impact on the
olive sector). Quantification of the value at risk and the implications for people’s lives would help
prioritise key issues.
Mapping distributional impact – the impacts of climate change are not uniform, they will have different
impacts on the different regions in Tunisia, women and vulnerable populations. Understanding these
in more detail will help identify critical issues that may be overlooked by national analyses.
Monitoring key climate indices – Identifying the specific climate variables that are most important for
these key sectors e.g. number of hot days, timing of seasons. Data is limited and often not collected
in a systematic and open source way - it is therefore important to put in place an action plan that
identifies these critical data and plans their regular production and sharing within Tunisian state
institutions and the scientific community.
These priorities need to be seen in the context of other challenges – including: COVID-induced losses and recovery; existing
environmental change; and the need to modernise economic sectors. As such, it is important that climate action is well
integrated with wider actions and priorities. The projects and studies carried out remain at the sectoral level and do not form
part of a complementary national strategy – the linked and cross-cutting nature of climate change points to the need for an
economy-wide strategic vision – and mechanisms to ensure that plans result in operational actions.
Whilst there remain some analytical gaps, it is clear that climate change will have significant implications for all parts
of Tunisia’s economy and society. In the absence of effective climate action, many of these impacts will have negative
consequences – but with the right strategic choices and actions now, the majority of these risks could be turned into positive
opportunities for Tunisia. Tunisia is at a key juncture in its history and faces a critical window of opportunity in the next
decade to rise to the challenge of climate change.

Impact on fishing will be regionally specific, with critical impacts for particularly vulnerable
populations, most notably charfia fishing in the Kerkenneh islands; and clam digging in the south
which is mainly a female livelihood activity.

Tourism in Tunisia is particularly exposed to climate change given the predominance of sea side
destinations. Sea level rise will reduce beach areas and increase risk for coastal properties – a sea
level rise of 50cm could lead to a loss of productive capital in the order of 3.6bn TND.

Climate change will shift tourist seasons – making peak summer dates less attractive, but increasing
spring and autumn potential.

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