1. (i) 2 λX X 22 α P ( X >270 ) =P ( 0.

5 X > 135 )¿ P ( X 100 >135 )≈ 1 %

2

(ii) X N ( 200,800 ) P ( X >270 ) =1−P Z<

270.5−200
√ 800 ( )
¿ 1−P ( Z <2.4749 )¿ 1−0.99334
¿ 0.00666
(iii) The gamma distribution converges to normal distribution if alpha approaches
infinity, but at alpha=50, it exhibits positive skew, giving a higher tail probability as
compared to the standard normal distribution

2. (i)
E [ U ] =E [ E [ Y| X ] ]=E [ Y ] =5
(ii)
Var [ U ] =Var [ E [ Y |X ] ] =Var [ Y ] −E [ Var [ Y |X ] ]¿ 4−2¿ 2
3. (i)B
1 t
(ii) M x ( t ) = ( e −1 )
t
when t=0 , M x (t )=1

[ ]
zt 2 2
e 1 zt ¿ 1 ( e 2 t −1 )
(iii) M z ( t )=E ( e )¿ ∫ dz ¿
tz
e
0 2 2t 0 2t

(iv) Since M z ( t ) ≠ M x ( t )∗M Y ( t ) , hence the ∑ of X ∧Y does not lie ∈the interval [ 0,2 ]
1 t 2
M x + y ( t )=E ( e ) E ( e )= 2 ( e −1 )
tx ty

24 S 2 2 2 2
4.(i) X 24 6 S X 24
4
(ii)
E ( S ) =4Var ( S )=3
2 2

5. (i)
− x−2 y
g x ( x )∗gY ( y )=e , since the product of marginal pdf of X ∧Y arethe same as joint pdf , X∧Y
are independent

[ ]
∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
]0 dy ∫ [ k e−(2 y ) ]0 dy¿ k e−( 2 y ) ¿ k2 1= k2
− ( x+2 y ) ∞ ∞
(ii)∫ k e dx dy ∫ [ −k e
− ( x +2 y )

0 0 0 −2 0
k =2
∞

(iii) f y ( y ) =∫ 2 e
∞
−( x+2 y )
dx ¿ [−2 e−( x+2 y ) ]0 ¿ 2 e−2 y for y >0
0
f ( y ,Y =3 ) 2 e−2 y
(iv) f ( y|Y >3 )=
6−2 y
= −2 (3) =2 e ( v) D
P (Y > 3 ) e

[ ]
∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
t∗−1 −2 t −1 −2 t −2 t ∞ 1
(vi) ∫ 2 t e dt +¿∫ 6 e −∫ e .2 dt+ [−3 e ]0 ¿ +3¿ 3.5
−2 t −2 t
dy ¿¿ 2 e
0 0 2 0 0 2
2

(vii) A
(viii) Var [ Y |Y > 3 ] =12.5−3.5¿ 9
6.(i)(a) A
dlogL −255 105 255 105
(ii) (b) logL ∝255 log ( 1− p )+105 log ( p ) = + =
dp 1−p p 1− p p
255 p=105−105 p360 p=105 p=0.2917
(iii) H 0=the probability follow a binomial model Bin ( 3 , p ) distribution

H 1=the probability does not follow a binomial model Bin ( 3 , p ) distribution

3 2
P ( X=0 )=( 1−0.2917 ) =0.355346 P ( X=1 ) =3 ( 0.2917 ) (1−0.2917 ) =0.43903
2 3
P ( X=2 )=3 ( 0.2917 ) (1−0.2917 ) =0.180805P ( X=3 )=( 0.2917 ) =0.0248204
Number of 0 1 2 3
exams passed
Observed 40 60 15 5
Expected 42.64152 52.6836 21.696 2.978448

Since expected value for number of exams passed=3 is smaller than 5, hence
Number of 0 1 2+
exams passed
Observed 40 60 20
Expected 42.64152 52.6836 24.674448

2
( O i−E i ) ( 40−42.64152 )2 (60−52.6836 )2 ( 20−24.674448 )2
∑ Ei
=
42.64152
+
52.6836
+
24.674448
¿ 2.0636

d.o.f = 3-1-1=1
Since 2.0636<3.841, we dont have sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis at
5% significance level, and therefore conclude that the probability follows a Binomial
model Bin(3,p)

7.(i) t distribution, with n=33

(ii) assume they have same variance, which can be justified by looking at the Sy
values which are very close to each other
(iii)A
(iv) We are applying two sides test, since the test statistics value lies in between
−2.302←1.031<2.037, we have insufficient evidence to reject null hypothesis at 5%
significance level and conclude that the phone usage is equal
(v)3.7 ± 2.145 ( )
2.1
√ 15
¿ [ 2.537,4 .863 ]
8.(i) There are a few outliers, and the plot exhibits strong linear positive relationship
between the days and years. However, in the actuary’s analysis, the coefficient for
slope is negative, which should be the other way round. R percentage is a bit too
high given that we observe numbers of outliers in the graph.
(ii) β=
S xy
=
282724−50 ( 1275
50 )( 8502
50 ) ¿ 65923 ¿ 6.33114
Sxx
( )
2
1275 10412.5
42925−50
50
α=
8502
50
−6.33114
1275
50 (
=8.59592 )