商情預測期中考 (Ch1~Ch6)

5/16/2019

Multiple choice (5 points each)

1. You are given a time series of sales data with 10 observations. You construct forecasts
according to last period’s actual level of sales plus the most recent observed change in
sales. How many data points will be lost in the forecast process relative to the original
data series?
A) One.
B) Two.
C) Three.
D) Zero.

2. Which of the following measures is a poor indicator of forecast accuracy, but useful in
determining the direction of bias in a forecasting model?
A) Mean Absolute Percentage Error.
B) Mean Percentage Error.
C) Mean Squared Error.
D) Root Mean Squared Error.

3. Which measure of forecast accuracy is analogous to standard deviation?

A) Mean Absolute Error.
B) Mean Absolute Percentage Error.
C) Mean Squared Error.
D) Root Mean Squared Error.

4. The null hypothesis is that there is no significant linear relationship between prices and
sales. Type I error is:
A) To conclude that there is a significant linear relationship when there is.
B) To conclude that there is not a significant linear relationship when there is.
C) To conclude that there is a significant linear relationship when there is not.
D) To conclude that the correlation coefficient is equal to zero.

5. Suppose two random variables X and Y are related as follows: Y = 1/X2. The population
Pearson correlation coefficient should be:
A) +1.
B) 0.
C) -1.
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 D) .5.

6. When the correlation coefficient is negative, it means:

A) there is a weak relationship.
B) when X goes down, Y does too.
C) X will not be a good predictor of Y.
D) when X goes down, Y tends to go up.

7. A simple-centered 3-point moving average of the time-series variable Xt is given by:

A) (Xt-1 + Xt-2 + Xt-3)/3.
B) (Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-2)/3.
C) (Xt+1 + Xt + Xt-1)/3.
D) None of the above.

Note: The next three questions relate to the following data:

Time Period Actual Series Forecast Series Forecast Error
1 100 100 0
2 110 -- --
3 115 -- --

8. If a smoothing constant of .3 is used, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for

period 4?
A) 106.6.
B) 103.0.
C) 115.0.
D) 112.6.

9. What is the forecast error for period 3?

A) -3.
B) -12.
C) -10.
D) -7.
10. If a three-month moving-average model is used, what is the forecast for period 4?
A) 104.4.
B) 106.6.
C) 107.1.
D) 108.3.

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11. Which of the following is not an aspect of the Winter's exponential smoothing model?
A) Holt's model extended to deseasonalized data.
B) Simple exponential smoothing applied to nonstationary data.
C) Seasonality estimates that are themselves smoothed.
D) Trend estimates that are themselves smoothed.

12. The sum of seasonal index numbers should equal

A) one.
B) sample size/2.
C) number of seasons.
D) 12.

13. In running an exponential smoothing model the following results were obtained:

The Beta value listed above indicates that the model

A) is probably unreliable for forecasting.
B) has a very high level smoothing constant.
C) exhibits a rather high degree of trend.
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 D) exhibits a rather high degree of seasonality.

14. In the smoothing model listed above (assuming January is the first month in the data set)
A) the greatest seasonal variation appears in May.
B) the greatest seasonal variation appears in December.
C) there appears to be little seasonal variation between months.
D) there is almost even variation between months.

15. In the smoothing model above, the Gamma coefficient reported

A) indicates a high degree of seasonality.
B) indicates some trend in the data.
C) indicates an almost stationary data set.
D) is statistically insignificant.

16. Consider the following model: Sales =  + (TIME)2 + . The trend is modeled here as a
A) linear trend.
B) exponential trend.
C) quadratic trend.
D) logarithmic trend.

17. The serial correlation parameter defined as

is used to measure:

A) disturbances of independent random variables.

B) correlation between regression error terms.
C) the Durbin-Watson statistic.
D) the difference between the forecast and the estimated regression line.

18. A multiple regression model using 200 data points (with three independent variables) has
how many degrees of freedom for testing the statistical significance of individual slope
coefficients?
A) 199.
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 B) 198.
C) 197.
D) 196.

19. The F-statistic reported in standard multiple regression computer packages tests which
hypothesis?
A) H0: 1  2 3  ..  K  0.
B) H0: 1 + 2 + 3 + .. + K = 0.
C) H0: 1 = 2 = 3 = .. = K = 0.
D) H0: The set of independent variables has a significant linear influence on
the dependent variable.

20. Which of the following statements are true?

A) Autocorrelation arises when there is a perfect linear association between the
dependent and independent variables.
B) Autocorrelation implies the error terms have differing variances.
C) Autocorrelation causes the estimated regression standard error to be biased.
D) Autocorrelation can be tested using the F-statistic.