Occupational Medicine 2010;60:94–100

Advance Access publication on 4 September 2009 doi:10.1093/occmed/kqp126

Predictors of employees’ early retirement

intentions: an 11-year longitudinal study
Monika E. von Bonsdorff 1,2, Pekka Huuhtanen1, Kaija Tuomi1 and Jorma Seitsamo1
1
The Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FIN-00250 Helsinki, Finland, 2School of Business and
Economics, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35 (MaE), FIN-40014, Finland.
Correspondence to: Monika E. von Bonsdorff, The Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Topeliuksenkatu 41 a A, FIN-00250

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/occmed/article/60/2/94/1420968 by guest on 08 February 2022

Helsinki, Finland. Tel. 1358 46 851 4969; e-mail: monika.bonsdorff@ttl.fi.
...................................................................................................................................................................................

Background Adjusting work life and encouraging older employees to continue at work has become a common
challenge as the workforce ages. Gender differences in retirement decisions have largely been over-
looked in previous studies, despite the fact that retirement as a life course event and the experience of
retirement can be gender dependent.
...................................................................................................................................................................................
Aims To explore which personal and work-related psychological factors predict early retirement intentions
among older women and men and to investigate the stability of these predictors through use of lon-
gitudinal data.
...................................................................................................................................................................................

Methods This research is based on an 11-year follow-up study of ageing Finnish municipal employees. Data on
1101 employees’ early retirement intentions were analysed with binary logistic regression analysis in
separate longitudinal and cross-sectional models.
...................................................................................................................................................................................

Results Gender differences in early retirement intentions were detected both at baseline and at follow-up.
Negative perceptions about work and low work and general life satisfaction were associated with early
retirement intentions among women. For men, good self-rated work ability and perceived good health
were negatively associated with early retirement intentions. In addition, negative perceptions about
work predicted early retirement intentions among men.
...................................................................................................................................................................................

Conclusions Adverse work- or health-related factors detected in middle age predicted subsequent early retirement
intentions.
...................................................................................................................................................................................
Key words Early retirement intentions; gender; negative perceptions about work; work ability.
...................................................................................................................................................................................

Introduction retirement [12] can be gender dependent. Older women’s

The ageing of the workforce and the exceptionally large
number of older workers retiring before reaching their full
retirement age [1] has left several Western countries
struggling to retain and hire competent employees [2].
In order to encourage employees to continue at work, ad-
justing work life to the needs of older individuals has be-
come more common in European countries [3]. Work can
be a significant positive force and a source of engagement
or a negative factor leading to burnout and ill-health [4]
throughout employees’ lives. Studies on early retirement
have consistently shown that personal factors and envi-
ronmental forces are associated with employees’ retire-
ment intentions and decisions [5], yet longitudinal
research on work-related psychological factors has
emerged only recently [6,7]. In addition, the effect of
gender on retirement decisions has been largely over-
looked in previous studies [8–10], despite the fact that re-
tirement as a life course event [11] and the experience of
retirement decisions can be influenced by their genera-
tion’s traditional care giving and family roles [8].
However, studies suggest that these roles are now chang-
ing and that gender equality is increasing [13,14].
According to the life course perspective [15], retire-
ment can be seen as a life transition in an ongoing trajec-
tory that might be influenced by previous events of life.
According to Beehr’s [5] model on the retirement pro-
cess, early retirement begins with a preference for early
retirement, continues with early retirement intentions
and ends with adjusting to the new life stage brought
on by the decision to withdraw permanently from working
life. In this study, we adapt this model and consider re-
tirement to be a process that develops during a period
of several years. The intent to retire is a powerful indicator
of the actual event of retirement [5,10]. Early retirement
decisions and early retirement intentions have been asso-
ciated with older age and health problems [5,16–19],

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 M. E. VON BONSDORFF ET AL.: EARLY RETIREMENT INTENTIONS IN FINLAND FROM 1981 TO 1992 95
poor work ability [20,21], high work demands [6] and
other organizational and managerial factors [6]. Older
employees’ early retirement decisions might depend on
spousal and familial factors [8, 22] in a way that women
tend to retire earlier [14]. The financial situation of the
older employee, in the form of pay, benefits and retire-
ment income, can influence early retirement intentions.
Researchers have suggested that employees with higher
wages and incomes during retirement are more likely
to retire early [16].
Employees’ functional capacity has been shown to de-
teriorate and symptoms of strain to increase as individuals
age [23]. Due to these changes, it is essential to maintain
and promote the work ability of ageing employees in
terms of the employees’ health and mental resources
and their resulting ability to do the job [24]. According
to a recent Finnish study, the work ability of women over
60 years tends to be poor, especially with regard to
physical work demands [21]. Yet, most of the older
women are working in physically demanding basic service
occupations.
At the time of the data collection in 1992, municipal
employees could retire before their mandatory pension
age (65 years). In addition to disability and unemploy-
ment pensions, individual early retirement was an option
to exit work life. Employees could apply for an individual
early retirement pension at the age of 58 years. In order to
receive early retirement, employees had to have perma-
nently reduced working capacity, a long work history
and a reduced capacity to cope with work demands.
The retirement legislation in Finland has since been
renewed. After the reform in 2005, employees can retire
between the ages of 63 and 68 years [25].
The aim of this study was to provide new information
regarding the extent to which personal and work-related
psychological factors predict early retirement intentions
among older women and men through use of longitudinal
data. Furthermore, we were interested in the stability of
the predictors of early retirement intentions of both
women and men. We wanted to find out if the same per-
sonal and work-related psychological factors were statis-
tically significant and equally strong both at baseline and
at follow-up. The longitudinal study design allowed us
to evaluate the findings in the light of Beehr’s model
[5] of the retirement process and from the life course
perspective [15].
Methods
This study is based on a broad multidisciplinary follow-
up study that focused on health, work, lifestyle and retire-
ment among employees in the municipal sector. It was
conducted in years 1981, 1985, 1992 and 1997 by the
Finnish Institute of Occupational Health. The design
and methodology of the current study have been reported
in detail elsewhere [26,27] and are summarized briefly
here. In this study, we focused on self-reported survey
data collected at baseline in 1981 (n 5 6257) and the
follow-up in 1992. The research process is presented
in Figure 1. At follow-up in 1992, 1101 individuals
(18%) were still working either full or part-time. Informa-
tion regarding retirement and mortality was obtained
from national registers. Appropriate permissions were ac-
quired from the authorities. In this study, we focused on
the 1101 individuals who were working in 1992 and had
responded to the question on their retirement intentions.
For details of the study sample, see Table 1.
The outcome of this study, early retirement intentions,
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was measured in the follow-up in 1992. Self-reported in-
formation was collected with the question: ‘Have you ever
considered retiring before your full retirement age?’ The
respondents were classified into two categories: 1) Those
who were not thinking of retiring and 2) Those who had
considered early retirement. Respondents’ age, type of
work and work activity of the spouse were reported at
baseline in 1981. Information regarding self-rated work
ability, perceived health and work-related psychological
information was collected both at baseline and at fol-
low-up in 1992. Negative perception about work was
measured with a scale comprising three questions, which
concerned the frequency of employees’ feelings of reluc-
tance towards leaving for work, staying at work and their
general feeling of apathy. Respondents’ estimation of their
work ability was assessed with a single-item question from
the Work Ability Index [28]. The respondents were asked
to estimate their current work ability compared to their
Excluded 1981 Baseline Study
No response population 1981
n = 1087 n
Baseline Study
participants 1981
Deceased (1992)
n = 395
No response (1992)
Follow-up Study
participants 1992
Old age Disability
Working (1992) pension (1992) pension (1992)
Figure 1. Study flow chart.
96 OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE

Table 1. Baseline characteristics by employment statusa

Variables All Working Retired, Retired, P-value for

participantsb,c in 1992 old disability chi-square or
(n 5 6257) (n 5 1101) (n 5 2595) (n 5 1852) t-testd

Gender ,0.001
Women (%) 55 61 61 51
Men (%) 45 39 39 49
Type of work ,0.001
Physically demanding (%) 42 34 35 54
Mixed physical and mental work (%) 31 23 40 23
Mentally demanding (%) 27 43 25 23
Spouses work activity ,0.001
Spouse working (%) 57 67 51 59

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Spouse not working (%) 17 12 20 18
No spouse (%) 26 21 29 23
Age 50.5 6 3.6 47.0 6 1.9 52.4 6 3.1 49.9 6 3.2 ,0.001
Self-rated work ability 7.4 6 1.9 8.2 6 1.4 7.6 6 1.6 6.7 6 2.2 ,0.001
Perceived health 3.1 6 0.9 2.8 6 0.8 2.9 6 0.8 3.4 6 0.9 ,0.001
Work satisfaction 2.0 6 0.8 1.9 6 0.8 1.9 6 0.8 2.1 6 0.8 ,0.001
Negative perceptions about work 3.1 6 1.9 2.6 6 1.7 3.0 6 1.9 3.5 6 2.1 ,0.001
General life satisfaction 2.1 6 0.7 2.1 6 0.6 2.1 6 0.6 2.6 6 0.8 ,0.001

Self-rated work ability, range 0–10, with higher score indicating better work ability; perceived health, range 1–5, with lower score indicating better health; work satisfaction,
range 0–5, with lower score indicating higher work satisfaction; negative perceptions about work, range 0–10, with lower score indicating less negative perceptions, and
general life satisfaction, range 1–5, with lower score indicating higher general life satisfaction.
a
Plus–minus values are means (standard deviation) presented for continuous variables and percentages for categorical variables.
b
All employees were working in 1981.
c
A total of 314 participants did not respond to the follow-up questionnaire and 395 participants died during the follow-up period.
d
Discrete variables are analysed with chi-square test and continuous variables with independent sample t-test and analysis of variance.

lifetime best. The scale varied from 0 to 10, with 10 in-
dicating work ability at its best. Studies have found that
this single-item question concerning employees’ estima-
tions of their work ability is correlated highly with the en-
tire Work Ability Index, and thus constitutes a reliable
measure of self-rated work ability [29].
Demographic variables in this study included age and
gender. Type of work (physical, mental and mixed phys-
ical and mental work [30]) was also controlled for. Phys-
ical work included, among others, auxiliary work,
installation work and domestic aid work. Mixed physical
and mental work included transport work, dumping
ground work, kitchen supervisor work, dental care work
and nursing work. Mental work covered administrative
and office work, technical supervision, physician’s work
and teaching work. Some studies have suggested that
early retirement might be a household decision and that
spouses can play an important role in the decision-making
process [8,22,14]. Hence, we asked the respondents
about their spouses work life involvement and asked them
to indicate whether or not they had a spouse and if the
spouse was working.
Binary logistic regression analysis was used to calculate
the odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals
(CIs) for predictors of early retirement intentions. The
outcome, early retirement intentions, was measured in
1992. The stability of the predictors of early retirement
intentions from baseline to follow-up was explored with
correlative analysis. Comparisons of discrete baseline
characteristics were performed using chi-square tests.
For continuous variables, analysis of variance was used.
All tests were performed as two-tailed in SPSS 15.0
(SPSS, Inc.) with the significance level P,0.05.
Results
Our study population comprised 1101 municipal employ-
ees who were still working at the time of the follow-up in
1992. The baseline characteristics are presented in Table
1. Statistically significant differences according to em-
ployment status in 1992 were detected at baseline for
all variables. Respondents who were still working in
1992 were younger and typically employed in mentally
demanding work, when compared to all respondents at
baseline. Nearly 54% of the respondents, who had retired
due to disability, had been employed in physically de-
manding work. The majority of the respondents still
working in 1992 were women (61%). Gender differences
were detected in type of work among these respondents,
since .40% of the men and nearly 30% of the women
were employed in physically demanding work.
In 1992, out of the 1101 respondents still working,
some 783 (73%) stated that they had early retirement
 M. E. VON BONSDORFF ET AL.: EARLY RETIREMENT INTENTIONS IN FINLAND FROM 1981 TO 1992 97

intentions. Early retirement intentions were common
among both women (70%) and men (80%). A closer ex-
amination showed that in 1981 the mean age for employ-
ees with early retirement intentions was 46.9 years
(SD 5 1.8) and for employees with no early retirement
intentions 47.4 years (SD 5 2.0). Early retirement inten-
tions varied only little according to the type of work.
Nearly 78% of the respondents working in physically de-
manding and 77% working in mentally demanding jobs
stated that they had experienced early retirement inten-
tions.
The results of the logistic regression analyses for early
retirement intentions are presented in Table 2 (longitudi-
For women, in the first model, adjusted with age, type
of work and spouses work activity, negative perceptions
about work increased the odds of early retirement inten-
tions (OR 5 1.25, 95% CI 5 1.09–1.45). In the second
model, adjusted with age, type of work and spouses work
activity, good self-rated work ability decreased the odds of
early retirement intentions (OR 5 1.22, 1/0.82, 95% CI
5 0.69–0.97). Furthermore, low work satisfaction and
negative perceptions about work increased the odds of
early retirement intentions 1.61 (95% CI 5 1.16–2.23)
and 1.64 (95% CI 5 1.41–1.91) times, respectively.
Low general satisfaction with life decreased the OR for
early retirement intentions (OR 5 1.45, 1/0.69; 95%

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nal models 1 and 3, cross-sectional 2 and 4). Age, type of
work and spouses work activity predicted employees’ early
retirement intentions. Older age proved to decrease early
retirement intentions for women in the first model and for
men both in the third and fourth models. Mentally and
physically demanding work decreased the odds of early re-
tirement intentions when compared to mental work in all
models. In addition, in the fourth model, physically de-
manding work decreased early retirement intentions for
men. Spouses work activity predicted early retirement in-
tentions of women in models 1 and 2 in a way that respond-
ents who stated that they had no spouse were less likely to
have early retirement intentions when compared to women
whose spouses were still working.
CI 5 0.49–0.97).
For men, in the third model adjusted with age, type of
work and spouses work activity, good self-rated work abil-
ity decreased the odds of early retirement intentions
(1.37, 1/0.73, 95% CI 5 0.56–0.96). Furthermore, the
OR for early retirement intentions among employees with
perceived poor health was 1.59 (95% CI 5 1.07–2.37).
In addition, negative perceptions about work increased
the odds of early retirement intentions 1.26-fold (95%
CI 5 1.02–1.56). In the fourth model, adjusted with
age, type of work and spouses work activity, good self-
rated work ability decreased the odds of early retirement
intentions 1.33-fold (OR 5 1/0.75, 95% CI 5 0.58–
0.96). As in the third model, the OR for early retirement

Table 2. ORs and 95% CIs from logistic regression models for the odds for early retirement intentions as the reference group

Women Men

Model 1a Model 2b Model 3a Model 4b

OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI) OR (95% CI)

Agec 0.87** (0.79–0.96) 0.95 (0.86–1.06) 0.74*** (0.64–0.87) 0.75** (0.63–0.88)

Type of workc
Mentally demandingd 1 1 1 1
Mixed physical and 0.56** (0.36–0.86) 0.45** (0.28–0.73) 0.17*** (0.08–0.36) 0.11*** (0.05–0.26)
mental work
Physically 1.03 (0.65–1.64) 0.78 (0.47–1.30) 0.55 (0.28–1.04) 0.36** (0.18–0.74)
demanding
Spouses work activityc
Spouse workingd 1 1 1 1
Spouse not working 1.62 (0.78–3.35) 1.46 (0.65–3.31) 0.53 (0.27–1.07) 0.63 (0.29–1.36)
No spouse 0.62* (0.42–0.92) 0.64* (0.41–0.99) 0.71 (0.25–2.05) 0.85 (0.30–2.71)
Self-rated work ability 0.88 (0.75–1.04) 0.82* (0.69–0.97) 0.73* (0.56–0.96) 0.75* (0.58–0.96)
Perceived health 1.10 (0.84–1.43) 1.28 (0.96–1.70) 1.59* (1.07–2.37) 1.88** (1.26–2.79)
Work satisfaction 1.03 (0.79–1.35) 1.61** (1.16–2.23) 1.04 (0.69–1.57) 1.00 (0.63–1.59)
Negative perceptions 1.25** (1.09–1.45) 1.64*** (1.41–1.91) 1.26* (1.02–1.56) 1.63*** (1.32–2.01)
about work
General life satisfaction 0.85 (0.63–1.15) 0.69* (0.49–0.97) 0.81 (0.52–1.26) 0.83 (0.50–1.36)

a
Models 1 and 3 5 longitudinal model; independent variables measured in 1981 and dependent variable measured in 1992.
b
Models 2 and 4 5 cross-sectional model; all variables, excluding age, type of work and spouses work activity measured in 1992.
c
Measured in 1981.
d
Reference group.
*P , 0.05, **P , 0.01, ***P , 0.001.
98 OCCUPATIONAL MEDICINE
intentions among employees with perceived poor health
was higher (OR 5 1.88, 95% CI 5 1.26–2.79). In addi-
tion, negative perceptions about work increased the
odds of early retirement intentions 1.63-fold (95% CI 5
1.32–2.01).
In order to determine the stability of the predictors of
early retirement intentions from baseline to follow-up,
we performed correlative analysis (Pearson correlation)
on the continuous variables. The results for both women
and men indicated that self-rated work ability, perceived
health, work satisfaction, negative perceptions about
work and general life satisfaction, measured at base-
line and the follow-up, were correlated. For women,
the correlations ranged between (Pearson correlation co-
efficient) r2 5 0.313 (P , 0.01) and r2 5 0.385 (P ,
0.01) and for men between r2 5 0.315 (P , 0.01) and
r2 5 0.475 (P , 0.01).
Discussion
This follow-up study found that negative perceptions
about work and low work satisfaction and even low gen-
eral life satisfaction were associated with early retirement
intentions among women. For men, good self-rated work
ability and good perceived health decreased early retire-
ment intentions, whereas negative perceptions about
work had the opposite effect. Furthermore, our findings
suggest that health and work-related psychological factors
are stable predictors of early retirement intentions.
The strength of this study lies with the longitudinal
data set. In addition, cross-sectional data were used in
order to study the stability of the predictors of early re-
tirement intentions. The respondents were working in
a wide range of municipal occupations, including both
white- and blue-collar jobs. Men and women were rela-
tively equally represented in the study, which allowed us
to form separate regression models for both genders
[8,11,10]. Certain limitations should also be addressed.
First, the respondents were near their full retirement
age at the time of the follow-up in 1992. Nearly 30%
of the baseline study participants had suffered from var-
ious health limitations and had ultimately retired due to
disability during the fairly long follow-up period. This
might have had an effect on the results since the employ-
ees continuing at work were healthier than the average
workforce. Nevertheless, poor perceived health, not older
age, increased early retirement intentions at the follow-
up. Second, as the data were reported by the employees
themselves, some self-reported bias might have influ-
enced the results. Because the data used in this study were
archival and were not collected for the purposes of this
particular study, the measures could have been better es-
tablished. Several of the variables, such as self-rated work
ability, were measured with single items. The fact that the
study was conducted in the municipal sector might limit
generalizing the results to the government or private sec-
tor. These sectors differ from each other in terms of in-
stitutional factors, such as retirement legislation, labour
agreements and pension schemes. However, knowledge
of the particular characteristics of the municipal sector
also enabled us to control for institutional factors to a cer-
tain extent.
The high percentage of employees considering early
retirement can partly be explained by the relatively high
mean age at follow-up in 1992 (58.4 years, SD 5 1.9).
Unlike in other longitudinal studies [17–19], we wanted
to explore predictors of early retirement intentions both in
a longitudinal and cross-sectional setting. This approach
allowed us to evaluate the stability of these predictors over
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a period of 11 years. The number of early retirement
predictors for women and men increased with time
and was clearly dependent on the proximity of old-age
retirement.
Our findings indicate gender differences in early retire-
ment intentions, both at baseline and at follow-up. This
can partly be due to women and men working in some-
what different occupations in the municipal sector [21].
In addition, there are differences in the working life of
women and men [8], which are interlinked with the life
course of a person. Women are typically seen as the pri-
mary caretakers of children and thus often assume the pri-
mary responsibility for child rearing. These
responsibilities may result in women entering working life
later and having discontinuous work histories [8]. In
terms of early retirement, women seem to be somewhat
more affected by work-related psychological factors
and men somewhat more by health. Unlike in previous
studies [8,22,14], we found that early retirement inten-
tions were more common among men than women. In-
terestingly enough, having no spouse decreased early
retirement intentions among women, but at the same time
neither the financial situation of the household nor future
retirement income predicted early retirement intention
among these respondents. This result might indicate that
women who had no spouse were more engaged in their
work and experienced less early retirement intentions.
Contrary to previous research [5,16,19], the current
study suggests that older age, especially for men, con-
sistently decreased the odds of early retirement inten-
tions. This might be the result of employees either
retiring early due to poor health or older, more healthier
employees continuing at work. Furthermore, better
self-rated work ability both at baseline and at follow-
up and better perceived health at follow-up decreased
the odds of early retirement intentions for men. Thus,
health, rather than age per se, was associated with early
retirement intentions. Typically, older employees in
their last years at work might report no early retirement
intentions as they know that they will need to work only
for a few more years before their transition to an old age
pension. In Finland, certain professional groups, such
as nurses and firemen, have previously had a right to
 M. E. VON BONSDORFF ET AL.: EARLY RETIREMENT INTENTIONS IN FINLAND FROM 1981 TO 1992 99
retire early. This might explain lower early retirement
intentions in work that is both mentally and physically
demanding. More than half of the employees who had
retired during the follow-up had been working in occu-
pations characterized as both mentally and physically
demanding.
Negative perceptions about work proved to be one of
the most powerful and stabile predictors of employees’
early retirement intentions in this study. Further analysis
showed that these perceptions had increased among
women from 1981 to 1992 (mean 2.78, SD 1.62 and
mean 3.44, SD 2.09, respectively) and among men from
1981 to 1992 (mean 2.38, SD 1.69 and mean 3.41, SD
2.08, respectively). This development indicates the im-
portance of adjusting work life to the needs of older indi-
viduals [3] in order for work to be a positive force [4].
Interestingly, general life satisfaction among women in
the cross-sectional study decreased their early retirement
intentions. This might mean that older employees can ex-
perience job engagement and thus perceive work as
a source of well-being and satisfaction in their lives [4].
Adverse work- or health-related factors detected in mid-
dle age can predict subsequent early retirement inten-
tions. Future international research regarding the life
course and gender perspectives on the process of retire-
ment and retirement decisions might help accumulate
knowledge in this field and at the same time help employ-
ees continue working longer.
Key points
• Older municipal employees’ retirement intentions
seem to be gender dependent.
• Adverse work- or health-related factors detected in
middle age can predict subsequent early retirement
intentions.
• Work life can be a positive force and source of
well-being and satisfaction in the lives of older
employees.
Funding
The Finnish Pension Alliance TELA.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Prof. Kenneth S. Shultz and
Prof. Esko Leskinen for their insightful comments.
Conflict of interest
None declared.
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