The Politics of

Climate Change
Youssef Nassef Module 3
 Recap of the
complex ecosystem
surrounding climate
change politics

2
 The political complexity
Drivers of complexity

Multiple greenhouse gases,

The conundrum of the “means
A wicked problem sources of emissions, and
of implementation”
associated impacts and risks

Direction of travel (as set by the

Paris Agreement) and Pace of Status of GHG mitigation pledges Phases of evolution of the
travel (as later set by the science) in NDCs framing and worldview

The politics of differing national

circumstances and country Systemic support for the fossil
The impact of COVID 19
categorizations – What is fuel economy
equity?

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 COP 26: Envisaged priority outcomes
Closing “Paris rulebook” Responding to the need to ramp up ambition and action

Article 6 instruments / transition from Finance (in particular for adaptation

Kyoto mechanisms and regarding $100 bln goal)

Rules/modalities for all three Predictability, clarity and transparency of climate •

Art.6 instruments finance
Arrangements for post-2020 climate finance •
Resolution of transitional issues
(Kyoto => Paris)

Linkages
(important)…

Transparency Ambition in mitigation and adaptation

(delivery of reporting tables and formats) (also through NDCs & LTSs)

• Technical ground to enable

implementation (tables, formats) “Ambition gap” and how to •
address it
• Support for transition to enhanced
Transition to “net zero” •
transparency framework
Pending NDC guidance •
NAP implementation •
Action on loss and •
damage
Global goal for adaptation •

* The conference has an extensive agenda (also because of its postponement to 2021) and it has to address many more important issues. But it is not
possible to list them all in a short presentation.
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 The political complexity
Special character of COP 26

The COVID pandemic (what are First COP session for post-Brexit Awareness that success criteria
its multiple impacts?) UK transcend negotiating outcomes

Largest gathering of Heads of Inheriting a large number of Dealing with an accumulated

State yet unresolved items from COP 25 workload of two years

OECD assessment of UNFCCC assessment of

US re-entry, and its nexus with
insufficiency of finance insufficiency of NDC pledges in
China
mobilized in 2020 2021

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 Negotiation dynamics
of achieving
consensus of 200
countries

6
 Dependencies in Glasgow – COP 26: a
“non-package” COP session

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 Dependencies in Katowice – COP 24: a
“package” COP session

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 Tradeoffs on Adaptation at Cancun – COP 16
Briefings prepared on adaptation during the Cancun COP (December 2010)

1. Trade-offs within adaptation for Ministers

Adaptation International Planning process for

Committee mechanism to LDCs to address
address loss and medium and long-
damage term needs
(primary (secondary (primary (secondary (primary (secondary
considerations) considerations) considerations) considerations) considerations) considerations)
In addition to risk
G77 reduction and insurance,
Establish AC in Establish IM whether the mechanism/
Cancun arrangements would also
Whether functions include a rehabilitation/
Whether, and the
include an advisory compensation
extent to which, non-
and/or decision- component Establish a process
LDCs would have
making role on for LDCs
access to these
Commit to adaptation funding Commit to Whether the
arrangements
establishing AC at establishing IM or mechanism/arrangements
COP 17 following other arrangement at would operate
Spectrum additional work a future COP internationally or be
of options regionally disaggregated

Following additional Continue

work, defer decision consideration next
on establishment to year
No process.
COP 17
Only strengthen
existing efforts by
LDCs
No AC. No IM.
Only strengthen Explore alternative
Annex I existing institutions means

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 The political complexity
An example of textual evolution – coal and fossil fuel subsidies

Original proposal by the COP President:

“Calls on Parties to accelerate the phase out of coal and fossil fuel”

Revised proposal by the President after consultation:

“Calls upon Parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of
policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power
generation and energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phase out of unabated coal power and
inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, recognizing the need for support towards a just transition;

Agreed text following interventions at final plenary:

Calls upon Parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of
policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power
generation and energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power
and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, while providing targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable in line
10 with national circumstances and recognizing the need for support towards a just transition;
 Anpolitical
The example of textual evolution – coal and fossil fuel subsidies
complexity
Can you identify country interests in this evolution?

Original proposal by the COP President:

“Calls on Parties to accelerate the phase out of coal and fossil fuel”

Revised proposal by the President after consultation:

“Calls upon Parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of
policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power
generation and energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phase out of unabated coal power and
inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, recognizing the need for support towards a just transition;

Agreed text following interventions at final plenary:

Calls upon Parties to accelerate the development, deployment and dissemination of technologies, and the adoption of
policies, to transition towards low-emission energy systems, including by rapidly scaling up the deployment of clean power
generation and energy efficiency measures, including accelerating efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power
and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, while providing targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable in line
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with national circumstances and recognizing the need for support towards a just transition;
 Salient outcomes

GHG Mitigation:
- Arrangements for cooperative implementation and
carbon markets under Article 6
- Annual ministerial round table on pre-2030 ambition
Support:
- Centrality of 1.5 rather than 2 degrees
- Doubling adaptation finance by 2025 from 2019
- Annual synthesis of NDCs
levels
- Phase down coal and phase out fossil fuel
- Successful launch of negotiations on a ramped-up
subsidies
financial goal from 2025
- Launch of initiatives outside of the negotiating
sphere that support ambition (e.g. ending
deforestation and cutting methane emissions by
30% during this decade)

Adaptation/ Resilience:
- Dialogue on loss and damage from 2022 to 2024
Reporting:
- Work programme on the Global Goal on Adaptation
- Finalizing the reporting rules – tables and templates.
- Scottish Government provides seed money in a loss
and damage fund

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 Taking stock

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 COP 26 reflections:

“Rather than debating the direction of travel, we were

discussing the speed” (Shyla Raghav)

“The success of COP 26 lies in the eyes of the beholder. Many

will say that we continue to irresponsibly spin the political
wheels, and from some vantage points that
is true, but no one can deny that Cop26 has hastened the
speed of the wheels of change” (Christiana Figueres)

“the day is now not far off when it will be as politically

unacceptable, anywhere in the world, to open a new
coal-fired power station as it now is to get on an
aeroplane and light a cigar” (Boris Johnson)

“Overall this is a historic agreement, we can be really proud of

it but, of course, this is just the start – we now need to deliver
on the commitments” (Alok Sharma)

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 Predict a paragraph
outcome at COP 27 that
reflects a realistic step
forward on the issue of
coal and subsidies

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