Implementation of Time Series Forecasting with Box

Jenkins ARIMA method on Wood Production of

Indonesian Forests
Khairul Huda1,a), Catur Edi Wibowo2,b), Vincencius Gunawan3,b)
Author Affiliations
1
Magister Program of Information System, School of Postgraduate Studies,
Diponegoro University,Semarang, Indonesia
2
Departement of Physics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia

Author Emails
a)
Corresponding author: duasatu.kh@gmail.com
b)
catur.ediwidodo@gmail.com
c)
goenangie@gmail.com

Abstract. Since the 1950s, Southeast Asia's vast tropical forests have continued to decline due to increased demand for
wood by Japan, the United States, Europe, and China. Based on these problems, the ARIMA Box Jenkins method is used
to predict future Indonesian forest timber products as an effort to create healthy plantation forests while anticipating a
decline in export activities in the wood processing industry. The Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) method is one of the time series
forecasting models that has the advantage that it is easy to implement on all data patterns including trend or seasonal data
patterns for short-term forecasting with good accuracy values to realize the creation of healthy forest plant products. This
research uses annual wood production dataset sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Indonesia
in 2000-2009. The results of forecasting using the ARIMA method with the best 2 types of ARIMA models, namely 1,2,0
and 0,2,1 for the production dataset of logs, saw wood and plywood where the significant value reaches 95% the results
2
are for the next 10 years of wood production. Most are round wood with a forecast value of 57,208,981 M , saw wood
2 2
24,824,675 M and plywood, 5,200,067 M .