kth royal institute

of technology

Licentiate Thesis in Vehicle and Maritime Engineering

Efficient commuter craft for urban

waterborne public transportation
HARSHA CHEEMAKURTHY

Stockholm, Sweden 2021

Efficient commuter craft for urban
waterborne public transportation
HARSHA CHEEMAKURTHY

Academic Dissertation which, with due permission of the KTH Royal Institute of Technology,
is submitted for public defence for the Degree of Licentiate of Engineering on Friday the 15h of
January 2021 at 1000hrs, U1, Brinellvägen 28A, Stockholm

Licentiate Thesis in Vehicle and Maritime Engineering

KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm, Sweden 2021
© Harsha Cheemakurthy
© Paper A - Karl Garme
© Paper B - Karl Garme
© Paper C - Meng Zhang, Sören Ehlers, Franz von Bock und Polach, Karl Garme, Magnus Burman
© Paper D - Meng Zhang, Sören Ehlers, Franz von Bock und Polach, Karl Garme, Magnus Burman

ISBN 978-91-7873-746-8
TRITA-SCI-FOU 2020:50

Printed by: Universitetsservice US-AB, Sweden 2020

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Abstract

There has been a recent surge in interest in waterborne public transportation (WPT). Public
transport providers (PTP) are seeing its potential in complementing the existing transport
network and alleviating urban traffic congestion and pollution. But the adoption of WPT
today is challenging due to a series of technical and implementation challenges. These
challenges include ferry procurement practices, local legislation and policies and
environmental factors like winter ice. Several of these challenges can be alleviated if efficient
ferries can be made accessible off-the-shelf with a low manufacturing time and cost. The
thesis focuses on developing such a ferry concept based on modular design whose overall
dimensions are standardized and internal arrangement is customizable towards operational
requirements, with a focus towards sustainable and safe operations in ice.

Starting with the characterization of WPT, ferry routes are broadly classified into three types.
These routes are described with an operational requirements framework considering all
relevant stakeholder expectations. Then, overall dimensions of vessels representative of
WPT are deduced. Using these dimensions to standardize the overall dimensions, a modular
ferry concept is developed as an assembly of modules and submodules. The modules are
presented as standardized units having fixed dimensions and interfaces whose internal
arrangements can be tailored to meet operational requirements. Design standardization
lowers costs and manufacturing time while internal customization favours tailoring the ferry
concept. One challenge associated with this for the PTP is the difficulty in choosing
appropriate modules among multiple alternatives. This is overcome through the
development of a ranking and selection method which benchmarks competing designs and
helps in decision making.

In terms of technical challenges for the developed ferry concept, cities like Stockholm
experience freezing of water bodies during winter months. For reliable year-round
operations that are safe and sustainable in terms of economy and environment, there is a
need for the development of lightweight and robust ice going hulls. This thesis lays the
foundation for the development of such hulls by studying the prevalent ice data and proposes
a probabilistic method for estimating the design ice pressures.

One must rely on probabilistic methods since most experimental studies are based on sea
ice whose mechanical properties are different from freshwater ice, which is typical for WPT.
Traditionally, classification society rules like the Finnish Swedish Ice Class Rules are used
for first year light ice conditions which were developed for the Baltic Sea considering
icebreaker vessels. They work well in ensuring a safe design, but their performance for
freshwater ice, applied to commuter ferries have not been tested. Therefore, a probabilistic
approach is adopted where the unknown parameters are incorporated as random variables.
The probabilistic method reduces the hull-ice interaction to a pressure and contact-area
relationship. With arctic datasets that closely match WPT conditions as the parent dataset,
the probabilistic method is calibrated with exposure conditions for WPT to give the design
pressure-area curve. The different uncertainties arising from operations in ice are studied

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using a statistical tool and the leading source of uncertainty is attributed to ice-load
prediction methods. This establishes the need for more robust methods for prediction of ice
loads so that a lightweight, yet robust hull may be designed which is efficient in terms of fuel
economy and emissions.

WPT presents a tremendous opportunity in complementing the existing transport network.

With careful design and development of the modular ferry concept and its technical
challenges, it would be easier for PTPs to adopt WPT globally.

Keywords:
waterborne public transportation, commuter ferry, modular design, operational
requirements, ranking method, sustainable performance, ice operations, ice-hull
Interaction, ice load, ice properties

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Sammanfattning

De senaste decenniet har intresset ökat för kollektivtrafik på vatten (WPT).

Kollektivtrafikleverantörer ser potential att minska trängsel och utsläpp och tillföra
kapacitet genom att utnyttja de urbana vattenvägarna. Men realiseringen har utmaningar,
så väl tekniska som relaterade till regelverk och systempraxis. Dessa omfattar inköp av färjor
och upphandling av vattenburen trafik, lokal lagstiftning och policyer, miljöfaktorer och
dessutom isen vintertid. Flera av dessa utmaningar kan hanteras om effektiva färjor kan
göras lättillgängliga med kort tillverkningstid till ett pris i paritet med övrig kollektivtrafik.
Avhandlingen fokuserar på att utveckla ett färjekoncept baserat på modulär design med
övergripande, standardiserade, dimensioner och med möjlighet att anpassa inredningen
efter operativa krav.

Efter karaktäriseringen av WPT klassificeras färjerutter i tre kategorier. Dessa rutter

beskrivs i ett operativt ramverk som beaktar relevanta intressenters förväntningar. Därefter
bestäms de övergripande dimensionerna för WPT fartyg. Baserat på dessa utvecklas ett
modulärt färjekoncept som en sammansättning av moduler och delmoduler. Modulerna har
standarddimensioner och gränssnitt så att arrangemang kan skräddarsys för att uppfylla
aktuella operativa krav. En utmaning med det modulära färjekonceptet är svårigheten att
bedöma vilken kombination av moduler som är bäst när det finns många möjliga
kombinationer som uppfyller en kravprofil. För att hantera detta utvecklas en ranknings-
och urvalsmetod för att kunna jämföra konkurrerande lösningar och därmed ge stöd i valet
av design.

En teknisk utmaning i städer som Stockholm är isen vintertid. För tillförlitlig trafik, året
runt, som är både säker och hållbar, ekonomiskt och miljömässigt, finns det ett behov av
utveckling av lätta och starka skrov som tål att operera i is. Avhandlingen närmar sig
utvecklingen av sådana skrov genom att föreslå lämpliga isdata och en sannolikhetsbaserad
metod för att uppskatta dimensionerande isbelastningar.

Is för nordiska WPT förhållanden är vanligtvis sötvattensis, vars mekaniska egenskaper

skiljer sig från havsis. De flesta studier som beskriver isegenskaper är experimentella och
baserade på havsis där man måste förlita sig på probabilistiska metoder för att ta hänsyn till
osäkerheter. Traditionellt används regler från klassificeringssällskap, som de finsk-svenska
isklassreglerna FSICR för första års isförhållanden vilket utvecklats för Östersjön och
isbrytande fartyg. Reglerna fungerar för att säkerställa en säker konstruktion men hur väl
de är anpassade för att dimensionera effektiva pendelfärjor i sötvattenis har inte utretts. I
avhandlingen antas ett probabilistiskt tillvägagångssätt där de okända parametrarna antas
som slumpmässiga variabler. Den probabilistiska metoden förenklar interaktionen mellan
skrov och is till ett förhållande mellan tryck och kontaktyta. Med publicerad data, som nära
matchar WPT-förhållanden, som bas, kalibreras den probabilistiska metoden till
exponeringsförhållanden för WPT för att formulera den dimensionerande tryck-kurvan. De
olika osäkerhetsfaktorerna vid operation i is studeras med statistisk analys som visar att den
främsta källan till osäkerhet är just förutsägelsen av isbelastningen. Detta fastställer behovet

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av mer robusta metoder för förutsägelse av isbelastningar så att ett lätt, men ändå starkt
skrov kan utformas som är effektivt med avseende på bränsleekonomi och utsläpp.

WPT ger stora möjligheter att komplettera ett befintligt kollektivtrafik nätverk. Med
noggrann design och tillämpning av det modulära färjekonceptet kan det bli enklare att ta
tillvara möjligheterna runt om i världen.

Nyckelord:
kollektivtrafik på vatten, modulärt färjekoncept, modulär design, rankningsmetod,
hållbarhetsparametrar, isbelastning, isförhållanden, isegenskaper

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Preface

Life in this universe is a wonderful phenomenon. We may not completely understand it

completely but as researchers we strive towards unravelling it a bit further. My love for Naval
Architecture started during my undergraduate course, over a decade ago. Since then, my
journey into discovering its many mysteries has only deepened. It is a great honour and joy
to have undertaken this doctoral journey. I sincerely hope that my work will improve the
understanding of the subject a little bit more and help mankind benefit in striving towards
a more sustainable future.
The research work presented in this thesis has been performed at the Centre for Naval
Architecture, Department of Aeronautical and Vehicle Engineering, School of Engineering
Sciences, KTH Royal Institute of Technology Sweden. The work was initiated and supervised
by Karl Garme, Magnus Burman and Zuheir Barsoum. The research project was financially
supported by Trafikverket (Swedish transport administration) and Region Stockholm
(Stockholm regional council) for which I express my sincere gratitude.
In Indian culture, they say that first and foremost is the guru or the teacher. I sincerely thank
Karl Garme for being my inspiration and guiding light in this journey of being a researcher.
Thank you for believing in me and encouraging me through the many hurdles. I would like
to thank Magnus Burman and Zuheir Barsoum for their expertise and guidance in shaping
my research in the right direction. I would also like to thank Sören Ehlers and Franz von
Bock und Polach at TUHH for their expert guidance in the matter of ice loads. Through their
patience, I was able to gain confidence in the subject.
Next, I would like to thank my parents, Brig. Sreeramulu and Shoba Cheemakurthy. Being
parents is a difficult job, one that takes immense responsibility. I was privileged enough to
be born in such a house where I was imbibed with good virtues and allowed the freedom to
remain curious about the world. I am immensely grateful for the love and nurture that I still
continue to receive today. Next, I would like to thank my sister, Mugdha, who has constantly
been a pillar of support in my life. We grew up as friends and I can undoubtingly claim that
I have a person whom I can always trust and rely on.
Next, I would like to thank my colleagues and friends, starting with Meng Zhang, who has
been my office mate and a dear friend. It is a privilege to have shared time with you through
our many adventures and fikas. Together, we came up with good research ideas and always
had each other’s backs, I am grateful for this. Next, I would like to thank Pahansen de Alwis
and Marion Aku Astine Zu with whom I have shared wonderful conversations over weekly
lunches and fikas.
Finally, I would like to thank my friends who were a constant source of support for me.
Visakh and Rohan, who made sure that I was always in high spirits through our fikas and
hangouts. Sam, Olga, Anna, Vishnu, and Jason who have been like my family here in
Sweden. I thank them for making sure I continued to remain sane and being there for me
whenever I felt like being home.
Harsha Cheemakurthy
Stockholm, December 2020
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Dissertation

The thesis consists of an extended summary and the following appended papers:
Paper A
Cheemakurthy, H. and Garme, K. 2020, October. Standardized Commuter Vessel Design for
a Worldwide Waterborne Public Transport Application. Submitted for publication.
Paper B
Cheemakurthy, H. and Garme, K. 2020, November. Design Performance Index for
evaluating ferries and its application for configuring modular ferries. Submitted for
publication.
Paper C
Zhang, M., Cheemakurthy, H., Ehlers, S., und Polach, R.V.B., Garme, K. and Burman, M.,
2019. Ice pressure prediction based on the probabilistic method for ice-going vessels in
inland waterways. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 141(2).
Paper D
Cheemakurthy, H., Zhang, M., Garme, K., Burman, M., Ehlers, S. and von Bock und Polach,
R., 2018, July. Statistical estimation of uncertainties associated with ship operations in
freshwater ice. In Proceedings of 28th International Ocean and Polar Engineering
Conference. ISOPE.

Publications and reports not included in the thesis:

Cheemakurthy, H., Tanko, M., and Garme, K., 2017 "Urban waterborne public transport
systems: An overview of existing operations in world cities," Stockholm, Sweden: KTH Royal
Institute of Technology, TRITA-AVE, 978-91-7729-648-5.
Tanko, M., Cheemakurthy, H., Hall Kihl, S., and Garme, K., 2019 "Water transit passenger
perceptions and planning factors: A Swedish perspective," Travel Behaviour & Society, vol.
16, pp. 23-30.
Tanko, M., Burke, M. and Cheemakurthy, H., 2018 "Water Transit and Ferry-Oriented
Development in Sweden: Comparisons with System Trends in Australia," Transportation
Research Record.

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Division of work between authors

Paper A

The idea for a modular ferry was developed during discussions with Garme. Cheemakurthy
wrote the paper under the supervision of Garme who contributed to the development of
operational requirements and ferry characteristics. Garme reviewed the paper and
contributed in shaping the narrative from a public transport provider’s perspective.

Paper B

The idea of the ranking and selection method was developed by Cheemakurthy. It was
further refined through discussions with Garme. Cheemakurthy wrote the paper and was
reviewed by Garme.

Paper C

The idea was developed by Zhang and Cheemakurthy during discussions with Ehlers and
und Polach. Zhang performed calculations for ice loads and conducted FEA simulations.
Cheemakurthy collected and processed ice data and contributed in choosing datasets for the
probabilistic method. The paper was written by Zhang and results were presented at ISOPE
conference by Cheemakurthy. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Paper D

The idea was developed during discussions with Ehlers and und Polach. Cheemakurthy
made the statistical model and performed the analysis. Zhang contributed ice load
calculations for input into the model. The paper was written under supervision of Garme.
All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1 ..................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Background ........................................................................................................................ 1
1.2. Research Objectives ........................................................................................................... 1
1.3. Research Methodology ..................................................................................................... 2
1.4. Research Contribution ...................................................................................................... 4
1.5. Thesis Organization .......................................................................................................... 6

2. Chapter 2............................................................................................................. 9
State of WPT today and its challenges......................................................................... 9
2.1. WPT – Present state ......................................................................................................... 9
2.2. Principal Implementation challenges ............................................................................. 12
2.2.1. Procurement challenges ......................................................................................... 13
2.2.2. Lack of framework for tailoring ferries ................................................................. 14
2.3. Technical Challenges ....................................................................................................... 14
2.3.1. Zero Emissions ....................................................................................................... 14
2.3.2. Autonomous drive .................................................................................................. 15
2.3.3. Weather independent operations .......................................................................... 15
2.4. Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................................... 15

3. Chapter 3............................................................................................................ 17
Standardized modular commuter ferry ..................................................................... 17
3.1. Identification of standard route types............................................................................. 18
3.2. Standardized operational requirements ......................................................................... 18
3.3. Standardized WPT ferry metrics .................................................................................... 20
3.4. Modular ferry ................................................................................................................... 21
3.4.1. Design ..................................................................................................................... 21
3.5. The Ranking and Selection Method ............................................................................... 25
3.5.1. Application of method and demonstration of tool ............................................... 27
3.6. Concluding Remarks ...................................................................................................... 32

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4. Chapter 4 ........................................................................................................... 33
Technical challenges – Ice operations ....................................................................... 33
4.1. Ice-Hull interaction ......................................................................................................... 33
4.1.1. Ice failure mechanisms.......................................................................................... 33
4.1.2. Ice Loads ................................................................................................................ 34
4.2. Ice properties................................................................................................................... 35
4.2.1. Physical Characteristics......................................................................................... 35
4.2.2. Mechanical Properties ........................................................................................... 36
4.3. Ice Loads – Structural Loads and Ship Resistance ........................................................ 38
4.3.1. Class rules .............................................................................................................. 38
4.3.2. Probabilistic model ................................................................................................ 39
4.3.3. Ice resistance models ............................................................................................ 42
4.3.4. Statistical estimation of uncertainty ..................................................................... 43
4.4. Concluding Remarks ....................................................................................................... 45

5. Chapter 5 ........................................................................................................... 47
Conclusions and Future Work .................................................................................. 47
5.1. Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 47
5.2. Future Work .................................................................................................................... 50

References .................................................................................................................51

Appended Papers ...................................................................................................... 56

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Chapter 1
Introduction

1.1. Background
Waterborne Public Transportation (WPT) utilizes water as a medium to connect points of
interest. It can be observed in many cities around the world and often complements the
existing land-based transport network. WPT is perceived as a sustainable and environment-
friendly mode of transportation (Wiegmans et al., 2015) that is economical, safe, versatile,
reliable, and energy-efficient with low emissions (Sihn et al., 2015). It is also identified with
qualitative metrics like better onboard work environment, more space per capita, on-board
calmness, better inter-personal communication, and higher comfort (Tanko et al., 2019).
Cities are increasingly looking at WPT to expand the reach and scope of their public
transport network while reducing the problems of congestion and pollution. Despite the
interest and advantages, the scale of WPT continues to be small and a general inertia is
observed in its application. The responsible factors are a combination of implementation
and technical challenges. In countries like Sweden, there is an additional challenge of
operating in ice. This is particularly challenging as research on freshwater ice navigation is
still in nascent stages of development.

1.2. Research Objectives

The overall project aim is the development of a concept for a commuter craft suitable across
multiple operational conditions including ice and open water such that it could lead to
standardization of ferry designs resulting in a future sustainable multimodal public
transport system. The commuter craft should be energy efficient in operations, possible to
efficiently manufacture, structurally sound based on careful use of construction materials
and eventually be environmentally sustainable.

This licentiate thesis emphasises the implementation challenges focusing on the accessibility
to efficient ferry units that are quick and economical to procure and establishes the basis for
addressing the technical challenges associated with ice operations.

The research objectives can be expressed as two principal questions, expressed as,
• Which vessel size and type are the most efficient in the public transport context in
relation to function, transportation demand and life cycle perspective including
manufacturing, operations, maintenance, and recycling? In answering this, some
sub-questions are,
o What are the operational-requirements characteristic of WPT?
o What are the vessel characteristics that are typical of a WPT ferry?
o How do we measure efficiency of a ferry in meeting requirements?
o How can a ferry concept be made accessible to public transport providers
(PTP) around the world?
1
 • What materials and structural arrangements meet ice operational needs?
o What are characteristic ice loads experienced by a ferry in WPT conditions?
o What are the different operational challenges faced by a ferry in ice?
o What is the structural response of different material/ structural
arrangements?1
o What is the performance of novel material/structural arrangements?2
o How do these material/structural arrangements perform from a life-cycle
perspective?3

1.3. Research Methodology

In achieving the research objectives, one requires a holistic approach, beginning from the
development of a ferry concept and focussing on its application in ice waters. First, a
thorough background study is performed to understand the current state of WPT, its
shortcomings and the impact they have on WPT. Based on these findings, the first part of
the thesis proposes a ferry concept as a solution. The second part looks at the developed ferry
concept from an engineering perspective on how to make it sustainable and safe for
operations in ice.

Figure 1: Research methodology leading to the development of a tailored commuter ferry.

1,2,3
Future work – not addressed in this thesis

2
To arrive at an easily procurable, tailored ferry concept, we need a customizable ferry
template that can be adapted towards the constraints driven by operational requirements.
The process flowchart is shown in Figure 1. Modular design is proposed as the choice of the
ferry’s design methodology, whose standardization aspect drives down cost and production
time while customization aspect boosts efficiency in meeting requirements. The modular
ferry concept is thoroughly investigated and developed as a theoretical concept whose
overall design is built on the foundation of ferry metrics that are characteristic of WPT. The
ferry is then tailored according to a novel operational requirements structure which
represents all stakeholder expectations including operational, environmental, social, and
economic factors. These factors are further divided into subcategories and sub-sub factors,
leading to a large web of requirements.

Subsequently, an algorithm to relate the modular ferry template and the constraints is
developed. This algorithm labelled as ranking and selection method, will allow the PTP to
tailor the ferry based on their needs in an easy and efficient manner. The method
benchmarks competing ferry designs and configurations, thus helping in decision making.

Figure 2: Research methodology in the investigation of efficient hull concepts for operations in ice.

In the second part of the thesis, the developed ferry concept is investigated from the
perspective of operations in ice, following the process shown in Figure 2. The final aim of
the phase is to arrive at a hull concept that is efficient for operations in inland freshwater ice
conditions. The key ingredients in arriving at hull concepts are the (a) investigation of factors
that affect ice operations including ice properties and its distribution (b) the structural
response of hull’s structure/material concepts undergoing ice operations and (c) desired
characteristics for low environmental impact, economy and safety. For investigation of ice
properties and distribution, statistics are sourced from the Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute (SMHI) for Lake Mälaren, Sweden. The statistics are processed to
generate a probabilistic model estimating the severity of ice conditions at any given time.
Missing ice data was sourced from published literature on the Great lakes and assumed that
its ice properties are similar to that found in Lake Mälaren. The interaction between
freshwater ice and the hull for the prediction of ice loads is conducted using probabilistic
3
and deterministic approaches. For conducting probabilistic estimations, the parent data was
sourced from published work. The findings were compared with results from deterministic
approaches derived from classification society rules like International Association of
Classification Societies Polar Class 6 (IACS PC6) and Finnish Swedish Ice Class Rules
(FSICR). These loads arising from ice-hull interaction defines the design loads in the
development of hull concepts. The assessment of materials and structural response of hull
concepts will be presented as part of future work.

1.4. Research Contribution

The thesis consists of an extended summary which is followed by four appended papers: A,
B, C and D. Paper A discusses challenges associated with WPT and proposes the
standardization of operational profiles and vessel metrics characteristic of WPT. Based on
these, the paper proposes a modular ferry concept and argues its adoption for worldwide
WPT application. The challenges related to configuration of the modular ferry are addressed
in Paper B and a ranking and selection method is presented that can help PTPs in making
design assessments of ferries. The requirements for the application of the ferry concept in
Stockholm’s winter conditions are investigated in Paper C. The paper addresses the technical
challenges pertaining to operations in ice through the introduction of ice conditions in
Swedish Inland waterways and proposes a probabilistic model in the prediction of ice loads
on the hull. The predicted values are compared with those obtained from deterministic
methods. Finally, the uncertainties associated with operations in ice are analysed
statistically in Paper D to pinpoint highest contributors to uncertainty.

Paper A: Standardized Commuter Vessel Design for a Worldwide Waterborne

Public Transport Application
Cheemakurthy H. and Garme K.

This paper presents the contemporary state of waterborne public transportation (WPT)
along with its biggest challenges with respect to implementation. These challenges include
political, financial, and technical challenges. The inaccessibility to efficient, quickly
manufactured, and inexpensive ferries was found to be major deterrents in WPT’s
attractiveness for the PTP. The problem was attributed to a lack of standard definitions for
operational requirements and WPT ferry metrics with each city having its own
understanding of it. For this purpose, the paper first classifies all inland WPT operational
profiles into three standard route types and standardizes the definition of operational
requirements as a three-stage hierarchy representing all stakeholders. Next, the paper
defines key design metrics describing a WPT ferry including overall dimensions, capacities,
and operational speeds. Considering these key ferry metrics and defined operational
profiles, the paper uses modular design to propose an efficient and sustainable concept for
a commuter ferry that has a low cost, short construction time and adaptable to meet
conditions across the world for inland WPT. Application of the concept is demonstrated in
different cities.
4
Paper B: Design Performance Index for evaluating ferries and its application
for configuring modular ferries
Cheemakurthy H. and Garme K.

This paper presents a novel evaluation methodology used to assess the performance of
ferries against operational requirements. Four applications of the proposed methodology’s
application include (a) comparison of new ferry designs at shipyards, (b) comparison of ferry
performances when procuring from a second-hand market, (c) guiding resource allocations
during refurbishment and upgrade operations, and (d) selection of an appropriate
configuration of modules in the assembly of a modular ferry from Paper A. The paper
demonstrates the method’s application in the selection of modules from given alternatives
for the modular commuter ferry concept. The methodology filters available alternatives and
then ranks them based on their performance which is judged in terms of environmental,
social, and economic performance. The ranking method is developed in the form of a user-
friendly application that the PTP may use during ferry selection.

Paper C: Ice pressure prediction based on the probabilistic method for ice-
going vessels in inland waterways.
Zhang M., Cheemakurthy H., Ehlers S., von Bock und Polach R., Garme K. and Burman M.

This paper uses a probabilistic approach to predict the limiting ice pressures based on
existing datasets gathered for thin first year sea ice. Different design strategies are
implemented to evaluate the ice impact load and the influence of ice exposure factors. Ice
information, i.e., ice type, thickness, mechanical properties, for Lake Mälaren is extracted
and analysed. Ice properties are determined based on empirical formulae and are validated
by reference data. The paper proposes one local design pressure curve which can be used for
Lake Mälaren independent of hull dimensions. The predicted ice pressures are found larger
than the values prescribed by FSICR.

Paper D: Statistical estimation of uncertainties associated with ship operations

in freshwater ice.
Cheemakurthy H., Zhang M., Garme K., Burman M., Ehlers S. and von Bock und Polach R.

The paper presents an uncertainty evaluation of criteria influencing the operational time
window for a vessel operating in freshwater ice conditions using Variation Mode and Effect
Analysis (VMEA). Five primary criteria are considered: Ship Resistance, Structural Loads,
Machinery, Ship Strength, and Operations. Individual criteria-wise uncertainty is evaluated
by finding the product of the uncertainty size and sensitivity. The paper found that primary
criteria, Structural Loads and Ship Resistance have maximum associated uncertainty with
evaluation methods as leading contributors. This paper concludes that the overall
uncertainty with respect to operating in ice can be reduced by having better methods to
predict ice loads and resistance.

5
1.5. Thesis Organization

The thesis contains the following five chapters:

Chapter 1: Introduction

The chapter lays the background establishing the growing need for considering WPT as a
viable means of transportation. The context for its popularity and hindrances is established
in the form of implementation as well as technical challenges. The need for developing
efficient commuter crafts and lightweight hulls for ice operations is expressed and its desired
features are introduced as part of the research objectives. Further, the research
methodologies adopted in achieving these objectives are laid out along with a summary of
attached supporting publications.

Chapter 2: State of WPT today and its challenges

This chapter describes the present state of WPT, and highlights contemporary trends
observed in industry as well as in academia in support of WPT’s growing popularity.
Subsequently, principal challenges that hinder the adoption of WPT as a viable alternative
means of transport in cities are discussed and categorised as implementation and technical
challenges. These challenges are further broken down into constituents that form the basis
for subsequent chapters and lays context for the rationale behind the studies towards an
efficient commuter craft. (Paper A)

Chapter 3: Standardized modular commuter ferry

This chapter addresses the implementation challenges related to procurement of efficient

ferries as highlighted in chapter 2. Standard definitions for operational profiles, operational
requirements and WPT ferry metrics are laid down. Using these as boundary conditions, the
modular ferry concept is developed, and its application is discussed. Then, a ranking method
is introduced as a means to relate the standard definitions of operational requirements to
the modular ferry. The method is demonstrated as a user-friendly application to be used for
example by the PTP. (Paper A & B)

Chapter 4: Technical Challenges – Ice Operations

This chapter addresses the technical challenges associated with ice operations for commuter
ferries as introduced in chapter 2. First, the properties and distribution of ice found in
Swedish inland waterways are introduced. Using these properties, loads exerted by ice on
hull structures are estimated using probabilistic, deterministic, and analytical methods. The
philosophies behind the methods are introduced and the acquired loads are then highlighted
as critical load cases which will be used for future work. All resulting loads are included in a
statistical model quantifying the uncertainties associated with operations in freshwater ice
for a vessel. The model is helpful in highlighting the biggest uncertainty sources and
establish the need for improving our understanding of these sources. (Paper C & D)

6
Chapter 5: Conclusions and Future Work

The final chapter of the thesis concludes the presented papers in relation to its objectives
and lays the path for future work.

7
8
2. Chapter 2
State of WPT today and its challenges
WPT used to be a major part of the public transportation network until the early 1940s. Since
then, it has declined in importance because of inland migration and technological
developments in alternate transport systems. However, in recent years, WPT is starting to
gain popularity among public transportation providers. The renewed interest can be
attributed to contemporary urban challenges of congestion, pollution, and benefits of
boosting economic development at waterfronts (Camay et al. (2012) and Tanko & Burke
(2017)). This public interest in WPT has led to an increase in research funding and we are
observing some emerging research in this field. Cheemakurthy (2017) and UITP (2016)
surveyed and benchmarked existing water transit in terms of operating models and ferry
designs. Weisbrod and Lawson (2003); Thompson et al. (2006); Tanko and Burke (2017)
discuss planning, development rationale and land use implications of WPT. New York City
Economic Development Corporation (2013); Tsai et al. (2015) studied the economic benefits
and property value effects around terminals while Soltani et al. (2015); Rahman et al. (2016)
and Tanko et. al (2018) conducted studies looking at passenger travel patterns. These
publications help us in understanding the present state of WPT, which is essential in
identifying the various hurdles and opportunities.

2.1. WPT – Present state

Today, we can observe several new projects that have been launched towards incorporation
of WPT in cities. Copenhagen, Denmark, recently started operating seven new electric ferries
for operations in the metropolitan area (Damen.com, 2020). New York, USA, began
operations of a new ferry system in 2017 (Berger, 2020). London, UK, has plans to increase
annual patronage to 12 million this year (Thamesclippers.com, 2020).

Figure 3: Route type A - Ferry routes running within a city along a water body with 3 or more stops

Cheemakurthy et al., (2017) studied the present state of WPT and made 7 key observations.
The first key observation is that ferries follow one of three distinct route patterns. They
either travel within a city along a water body connecting points of interest (Figure 3) or they

9
connect two-three stops acting in a cross-water-body or a triangular configuration (Figure
4) or they link suburbs to the inner city (Figure 5).

Figure 4: Route type B - Ferry routes running across water bodies with 2 - 3 stops

Ferries on these route types display distinct design characteristics and travel behaviour
unique to their route type. Within this framework, interesting strategies to maximize the
ferry route’s performance are observed globally. E.g., in the suburban-city routes in
Wellington (New Zealand), ferries operate on different routes on different times of the day
while in Hamburg, Germany, ferries are transformed into lecture halls during off peak hours.

Figure 5: Route type C - Ferry routes connecting suburban areas to inner city

The second key observation relates to scheduling and its dependence on route type, route
length, and the city’s commuter volume. It is challenging to balance service demand with an
appropriate schedule that keeps the ferry option attractive to commuters. If the service
frequency is less, commuters may look at alternative modes. Given, large capacities of most
WPT ferries, attaining high frequency while having a reasonable occupancy ratio is
particularly challenging. Another challenge with regards to scheduling is integration with
other public transportation modes. Sandell (2015) suggested implementation of pulse
timetables at central transfer hubs could greatly increase origin-destination pairings with
minimal increase in cost.

The third key observation is transit network integration. Soltani (2015) associated the
success of contemporary WPT to its connection with existing public transport networks.
Globally it has been found that WPT varies from being fully integrated with a common
ticketing system and central transfer hubs (E.g., Brisbane, Australia) to independent systems
operated by private companies, sometimes on a non-scheduled basis (E.g., Hong Kong). The
10
specific challenge here is to achieve transit network integration. However, the economic
viability of such a system needs to be investigated, especially for vessels running on routes
connecting suburban areas.

The fourth key observation corresponds to terminal location, design and infrastructure.
This metric closely relates to the third key observation and establishes the need for conscious
planning of terminals with access to other transit options. The terminals must be designed
to facilitate quick embarkation/disembarkation, docking/undocking and transfer between
transit options. Stenius et. al (2014) recommended 90 seconds as the embarkation time at
full capacity. Some further performance factors identified are availability of seating, shelter,
ticket machines, real time information systems and disability access. In practice, terminal
infrastructure has been observed as both fixed (E.g., New York) as well as floating (E.g.,
Rotterdam) and each have their respective advantages and challenges.

The fifth key observation is related to accessibility, comfort, and public perception.
Commuters on WPT perceive comfort as more important than operational metrics like travel
time, Tanko et al. (2019). Adding to the comfort value, cities are promoting WPT as an
opportunity to facilitate positive utility for productivity while commuting. This is observed
through free Wi-Fi services (e.g., in Rotterdam, Netherlands), on board food and drinks (e.g.
in London), tables to work and comfortable seating amongst others. Accessibility is also
addressed with options to board bicycles (e.g., in Gothenburg, Sweden), disability access
(e.g. in Auckland, New Zealand) and baby strollers. The associated challenge here is on how
to boost comfort and accessibility and project WPT as a viable alternative/complement to
other transportation modes.

The sixth key observation relates to vessel design. It was found that ferries come in different
shapes and sizes with little similarity between designs. The designs vary from monohulls
(e.g. in Copenhagen, Gothenburg and Hamburg) to catamarans (e.g. in Brisbane,
Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Auckland). Their operational speeds also show a large
variance ranging from 10 knots in Stockholm to 25 knots in Brisbane. There was also a noted
diversity in the ferry capacities ranging from 80 passengers in Copenhagen to 2100 in
Istanbul. The hull materials are also largely diverse, with hardened steel being used in
Stavanger to counter ice to a lightweight combination of aluminium and fibre-composites in
Sydney. There is also a diversity noted in the propulsion systems and power generation
ranging from conventional fuels to electric and solar power. The overall large variance in
vessel designs was seen to arise from the fact that WPT is a very small sector and an
underdeveloped part of the public transportation system which leads the PTPs to opt for
readily available solutions like second-hand vessels. The resulting diversity in designs
showed low overall operational efficiency and this is a challenge that needs to be addressed.

The final key observation is operating costs and environmental impact. It is seen that ferries
in general have a higher operational cost as compared to other transportation modes. A
major contributor to the disparity is regulations which require more manpower aboard
ferries as well as higher wages. Here, there is an opportunity to lower operational costs
through development of autonomous ferries, new regulations and equate manning and
11
salary principles across all transport modes. Another big factor contributing towards the
high operational costs is fuel expenses. Poorly designed hulls and inefficient engines result
in higher costs. Alternate power systems can be found like solar power (E.g., San Francisco,
USA), Hydrogen fuel cells (E.g., Hamburg) and hybrid electric vessels (E.g., Stavanger,
Norway). These systems have lower operational costs, but installation costs and their
environmental impact needs to be borne in mind. A challenge here is to make an
environmentally friendly vessel that is economically viable.

These 7 key observations describe WPT in its present state today. They highlight various
challenges as well as opportunities to make WPT attractive as a viable transport alternative
to the PTPs. The next section expands on these preliminary observations from the view of
making it easier for the PTP to adopt WPT and divides the associated challenges into
implementation and technical impediments.

2.2. Principal Implementation challenges

Under implementation challenges, Bignon and Pojani (2018) identified funding constraints,
competition from other modes, lack of political will, lack of opportunity and local legislation
as principal impediments. Tanko et al. (2018) looked at the conditions in Sweden and argued
that land use policy and weather-related constraints as the principal implementation
challenges. Additionally, they observed that the strategy behind ferry-oriented development
in Sweden is ill defined. While ferries are principally seen as a means of transportation, its
repercussions were observed to affect urban regimes for gentrification, which can be avoided
with careful planning. In cities with new WPT systems or in early stages of development
there is an opportunity to develop a more coherent strategy for socially inclusive ferry-
oriented development. In doing so, a need for relaxing some land use regulations is desired.

So far, Sweden has focussed on water transit development with aspirations toward inclusive
ferry-oriented development but has had mixed success. For example, in Gothenburg,
promotion as a transport hub at the same time as a technology hub was observed as a
conflicted strategy. However, the development of a multi modal ferry-oriented terminal in a
new location from a previous ferry stop location where there was little supportive land use
for a water transit terminal is a positive sign. In Stockholm, a different environmental
efficiency driven agenda exists. However, in this case the challenge is to integrate land use
consideration more tightly in a clear ferry-oriented development vision for Stockholm to be
successful in expanding its WPT network.

The effect of city configurations is also worth noting. Stockholm and Sydney may be
considered similar in terms of the hub and spoke pattern of service to inner harbours and
archipelago islands connecting to a central city hub. Brisbane and Gothenburg’s structure
are also similar, based around a more linear route that travels parallel to the shoreline to
many activity centres, whilst also offering cross-river connections. Locations at the end of
these routes in suburban locations are being actively developed for more residential and
commercial uses in both cities. Planning for water transit in either city configuration needs
12
to be considered, with the complexity of Stockholm’s archipelago network needing careful
planning to design route structures. These routes must emphasize multidirectional travel in
order to avoid capacity issues at the central pier as has occurred in Circular Quay in Sydney.

Finally, political, and institutional arrangements are important to consider as they can
influence the conditions for WPT tremendously. Different agencies can have alternate
agendas. E.g., In Bangkok, Thailand, water and marine departments have conflicting goals
which has been a challenge in its efforts to likewise expand and modernize its water transit
network, (Hossain. & Iamtrakul, 2007). In Stockholm, Sweden, a specific challenge in this
regard in terms of a transit systems is coordination of waterfront land use polices that could
facilitate a uniform linear network that crosses respective policy boundaries.

In addition to these implementation challenges, on a more fundamental level, there still lies
the problem of poor accessibility in procuring efficient ferries. Paper A examines this
problem and argues that this is one of the biggest hurdles that discourages PTPs in opting
for WPT. A well-designed ferry that is economical and easily procurable will reduce funding
constraints, be competitive in terms of economy and environmental footprint with alternate
modes, ease political will, create opportunities for better connectivity and influence local
legislation.

2.2.1. Procurement challenges

When a city council decides to implement WPT, the PTP can either procure new, custom
designed ferries that meet specific operational requirements or buy second-hand ferries
from the market or retrofit/refurbish existing old vessels that are not necessarily ferries.
Those cities that operate custom designed ferries tailored towards operational requirements
have been observed to integrate well within the public transportation framework. WPT
operations in Amsterdam, Copenhagen, and Sydney, which have tailored vessels have
proven profitable, Interconnect (2010) and Philipatos (2011). However, procurement of such
ferries is both expensive as well as manufacturing time intensive, often with a limit on the
order quantity. With typical construction time lasting between 9 months to an year (Ferry
Boat Feasibility Study, 2020), a natural deterrence is created against adopting WPT which
leads to the PTP opting for alternate modes of transport like buses and trams which can be
procured much quicker and cheaper.

Due to the present small scale of WPT, we do not observe many competing multinational
vessel manufacturing companies. Most manufactures today operate in a niche market
leading to specialised manufacturing practices with little knowledge sharing between bodies.
This is partly responsible for the high costs and long construction times arising from an
extensive design process and precise manufacture of custom parts.

This leads the PTPs to look at either buying second-hand ferries or refurbishing old vessels.
The obvious advantages here are low unit costs and very short procurement times. However,
the limited choice of available ferry options impedes their efficiency in meeting operational
requirements. Impediments like operational role mismatch and inefficient ferry design

13
makes WPT difficult for integration within the public transportation framework (e.g.,
Istanbul, Hong Kong, and New York). The lack of integration affects planning which may
result in an independent ticketing system with expensive tickets, low transit frequency, poor
transferability between transport modes, long waiting times, inadequate last mile
connectivity and a high environmental footprint. Consequently, refurbishment and
retrofitting can lead to an inefficient ferry design in terms of poor superstructure space
utilization, higher emissions, poor adaptability to weather conditions and increased
resistance due to ill-suited hull-forms. In conclusion, while such ferries serve short term
goals, in the long run they negatively reinforce the already precarious image of WPT leading
to reluctance among PTPs in expanding or developing it.

2.2.2. Lack of framework for tailoring ferries

Even if the above difficulties of expensive units and long construction times are overcome,
there is still a challenge of tailoring ferries towards operational requirements. Each
operational route is unique due to regional, cultural, population density, geographical and
regulatory differences. A variety of factors including economic, environmental, and social
factors need to be considered in tailoring the design of the ferry. In this endeavour, Tanko et
al. (2018) performed studies to look at understanding the role of social preferences in
shaping the attractiveness of WPT. Their findings showed a strong correlation between
transport user’s satisfaction and WPT services, indicating the role of social performance in
the perception of WPT. Lack of such studies leads to guesswork arising from the PTP in
understanding what commuters want. An approach to tailoring considering all social,
economic and environmental factors is currently lacking with different PTPs in different
cities having their own perception of what constitute operational requirements.
Consequently, they are often applied on an ad-hoc basis which may lack support from
research studies.

2.3. Technical Challenges

In recent years, a lot of technological innovations have been observed in the marine sector
from fully electric ferries to lightweight composite hulls to autonomous drives. However,
owing to the small size of the WPT sector, there is often little funding in progressing such
technological advances. The technical challenges mentioned here relate to the ferry’s design
and complementary land-based infrastructure. Three immediate technical challenges are
zero emissions, autonomous drive and weather independent operations.

2.3.1. Zero Emissions

The urgent need of the hour is to minimize emissions generated per capita through energy
efficient ferries operating on alternate green sources of energy. The challenge here is to make
these specialised hull forms available for application under multiple operational conditions.
Since WPT conditions are milder than open seas, such an endeavour is feasible. From the

14
perspective of propulsion, electric propulsion due to its higher energy efficiency, emission
free and silent operations is favourable among commuters as observed in Stockholm Tanko
et al. (2019). But the challenge here is in increasing the power retention, lowering battery
weight, and achieving emission free handling of power from source to disposal.

2.3.2. Autonomous drive

As highlighted earlier, operational costs of ferries are higher as compared to other modes of
transport due to staff regulations and non-optimal hull forms. Both, contemporary research,
and transport operators are looking towards solutions to reduce personnel onboard ferries.
This lays the case for striving towards autonomous drive for ferries. Such technological
advances will also require new regulatory changes for its implementation.

2.3.3. Weather independent operations

This is a very niche challenge that affects those cities with adverse weather conditions like
Stockholm where the water freezes during winter months. Conventional ferries cease
operations in such conditions leading to a partial suspension of services. This affects
reliability associated with WPT which further downplays its popularity among both
commuters and the PTPs. The challenge here is to design a ferry that can sustain year-round
operations despite the presence of ice while being economically and environmentally
sustainable. This challenge forms the core of the second part of the thesis.

2.4. Concluding Remarks

The present state of WPT shows signs of re-emergence and is slowly gaining traction as a
viable complement to existing public transportation network. There are several key factors
that describe a WPT system. A study of this has revealed certain imminent implementation
and technical challenges. If these challenges are met, then WPT might become more
lucrative for the PTP to adopt as a transport strategy. Also, with proper planning and
application, WPT can lead to essential waterfront development thus boosting economic
growth and development in a region. The rest of the thesis focuses on the development of a
ferry concept that can address some of these implementation challenges with a focus on ice
operations under technical challenges.

15
16
3. Chapter 3
Standardized modular commuter ferry

Several implementation and technical challenges were introduced in the previous chapter.
It is the understanding of the authors in Paper A that easy accessibility to efficient ferries
holds the key to alleviating several of these impediments. A working model of an efficient
ferry can ease funding constraints, set up as a strong contender in the face of competition
from other modes, motivate political will, provide impetus despite low opportunity and ease
local legislation. An efficient ferry design can open the gateway to easy adoption of WPT with
off-the-shelf availability for the PTP.

In exploring the challenges, Paper A found that modular design is a good strategy to develop
such an efficient ferry. The approach is not new and can be seen in the automobile industry
where there is a certain level of modular thinking. Modular design combines advantages of
standardization and customization while negating respective disadvantages. Together, they
promote economies of scale (Levitt, 1983), transfer of experience (Douglas & Craig, 1986),
uniform global image (Melewar & Saunders, 1999), customer appeal (Spring & Dalrymple,
2000), design flexibility (Sievänen, 2004), greater variety of design combinations for
assembly and production (Gershenson et al, 2003), reduction in tooling and inventory
requirements (Durand et. al, 2010), increased efficiency of processes (Gerhenson et al,
2003) and optimized equipment and resources usage (Sosale et al, 1997). It also promotes
recyclability (Go et al, 2015), reusability (Aoyama & Uno 2003), serviceability (Chiu and chu,
2012), reparability (Cheng, 2012), diverse functionality (Chang et al, 2013), and
upgradability (Halstenberg et al, 2015 and Agarwal & Ulku, 2013). These advantages
represent potential solutions to a large chunk of the problems currently faced by the WPT
sector.

There are also private companies looking at modular design for designing ferries. Marintek,
Norway is currently exploring application of modular design for offshore supply vessels
(Erikstad, 2009). Vladimir et al. (2018) are looking at modularly designed passenger cruises
for application in the Mediterranean. In practice, Damen Shipyard recently constructed
modular ferries that began operations in Copenhagen. Fjellstrand shipyard is developing a
fast ferry incorporating modularity to begin operations by 2022 in Norway. However, the
point of the research is not to pitch modular-design as the winning solution. The idea is to
pitch the possibility of having standardization of designs around the world. In the few
examples mentioned above, there is a strong likelihood that the designs produced by these
shipyards will not have modular compatibility. Research also finds evidence in that social
preferences favour creation of a uniform network with a standardized fleet and facilities at
piers (Tanko et al. 2018). Having a uniform fleet would also mean that passengers would
know which boat will be used instead of the current uncertainty of boarding a potentially
less comfortable boat.

The idea developed in Paper A introduces a universal concept for a modular commuter ferry
that can potentially be used everywhere in WPT. The ferry concept is based on standardized
17
dimensions which rely on comprehensive definitions for operational requirements and WPT
ferry metrics. Later in the chapter, a proposed ranking and selection method is introduced
which can benchmark different ferries, help in modular ferry assembly and useful during
ferry procurement and refurbishment.

3.1. Identification of standard route types

For developing the ferry concept, there was a need for characterizing the operational
environment. Paper A investigated WPT ferry routes and segregated them as one of three
standard route types. Their definitions, features and characteristic differences are
summarised in Table 1. For ferries on route type A shown in Figure 3, service factors
including accessibility, frequency, speed are important. Comfort vs capacity is often the
choice of the PTP depending on the passenger’s demographic (work commuters, tourists,
students, pensioners). Ferries on route type B shown in Figure 4, need to transport across
the water body as quickly and frequently as possible. This is visible in the ferry design which
have wide entrances, double ended and spacious general arrangements. For ferries
operating on route type C shown in Figure 5, the commuters associate with qualitative
metrics of comfort and calmness on long trips. Based on the commuter demographic, they
might also expect a stable work environment onboard.

Table 1: Differences between WPT operational profiles classified into three standard route types A,
B and C. Route Type A operates linearly within cities, Route type B operates as a cross-water
transport unit, Route type C connects suburban areas to inner-city.

Route No. of distance b/w
type Description stops
Service along a water
A >3
body within the city
Service across water
B bodies, similar in 2–3
function to bridges
Service connecting
C >2
suburban regions to city
Total
ends (NM) Route Characteristics
Bus comparable speed, High
2–8 frequency, Accessible, Multimodal
integration
High frequency, Short turnaround,
<2
Quick embarkation, Large capacity
Comfort, Weather independent
8 – 12
operations, Reliability

3.2. Standardized operational requirements

The three route types introduced may have broadly similar characteristics which represent
a good starting step towards the corresponding ferry’s design. However, each route type can
have different operational requirements arising from regional, cultural, population density,
geographical and regulatory differences. Today, there are no standard definitions for
operational requirements within the WPT sector. Different cities, shipyards, PTPs may have
their own understanding of requirements. In view of developing a universal concept for a

18
commuter ferry, a standard structure for operational requirements is developed into a three-
level hierarchy as shown in Figure 6. At the primary level, the three standard route types
decide the broad design of the ferry, followed by a set of mandatory requirements at the
secondary level and performance requirements at the third level. These requirements
represent all stakeholder expectations including the PTP, operator, commuters,
environment, government, financers, and service personnel.

The overall aim of the operational requirements hierarchy is to maximize the overall
performance of the ferry while meeting mandatory requirements. They provide a
standardised system that all public transport authorities can use in laying down clear
requirements for procuring a suitable ferry.

Figure 6: Operational requirements hierarchy. Primary level defines the overall ferry design.
Secondary level filters against mandatory requirements. Tertiary level rates environmental, social,
and economic perforamnce.
19
3.3. Standardized WPT ferry metrics
As we strive for standardization of ferry designs, we next look at ferry metrics characteristic
of WPT which are passenger capacities, principal dimensions and operational speeds. Four
well-designed WPT vessels including two monohulls and two catamarans are thoroughly
investigated for design and the ferry metrics representative of WPT are deduced as
summarized in Table 2. The metrics are compared with two reference ferries.

Table 2: Key Vessel metrics representative of WPT ferries

Älveli Damen ferry 2806

Variant 1 Variant 2 (Faktaomfartyg.se, (Products.damen.com,
2020) 2020)
Capacity 200 - 450 100 - 350 298 pax; 80 bikes 252
Superstructure 180 m2 138 m2
Area
Dimensions L = 28.6 m L = 22 m L = 33 m L = 28 m
B = 6.4 m B = 6.4 m B = 8.7 m B = 6.2 m
T = 1.2 - 1.7 m T = 1.2 - 1.7 m T = 1.4 m T = 1.2 m

L/B 4.5 3.4 3.8 4.5

Displacement 61 - 117 t 44 - 95 t 306 t 120 t

Design Speed 8 – 14 knots 8 – 14 knots 11 knots 13.5 knots

Froude
0.37 – 0.46 0.42 – 0.53 0.32 0.42
Number
Route type A, B, C A, B, C B A

The analyses in the deduction of these metrics is described in paper A. In summary, two size
variants of the commuter ferry concept are envisaged. Their capacities vary from 100 – 450
depending on the variant size and general arrangement of the superstructure. For modelling
resistance, four existing hulls were used as basis to create 8 hull-forms adapted to the overall
dimensions identified in Table 2. Using a combination of semi-empirical and potential flow
methods, the operational speed was identified in the range of 8 – 15 knots. At this speed
range, the per capita energy consumption was comparable with that of alternate modes.

A series of resistance analyses for differences in hull material, number of passengers

onboard, propulsion type, hull type and vessel size are performed. The resulting
multivariable plot for energy consumption at different speeds for the two variants is
compared against those of bus and rail in Figure 7 for a monohull ferry. A similar plot for a
catamaran hull at higher speeds can be found in Paper A. These plots are useful as a decision-
making tool for the PTP when choosing the right hull among multiple variants. For instance,
a user interested in ice operations can study the consequence of choosing a heavy hull for
minimum number of passengers, hull type, operational speed and propulsion system and
compare the performance with that of an average bus or metro rail. More insights on using
this table can be found in Paper A.

20
Figure 7. Per capita energy consumption for two monohull ferry variants. A larger variant (F1) and a
smaller variant (F2) are compared for speeds ranging 4 – 11 knots. The reference lines for the
electric bus is 0.055 kWh/km/pax based on a 45-seater bus with 65% occupancy ratio having a
consumption of 1.6 kWh/km (Landerl, 2017), for the diesel bus it is 0.07 kWh/km/pax based on a
power consumption of 2.1 kWh/km (Barnimer Busgesellschaft, 2013), and metro rail is 0.034
kWh/km/pax based on 14.4 kW/km of power consumption, calculated from its total traction power
of 650 kW (Ma et al., 2020) and an onboard capacity of 650 commuters in 3 cars.

3.4. Modular ferry

The modular ferry is a novel concept and in contrast with the traditional way of shipbuilding.
The key vessel metrics for WPT ferries defined in Table 2 serve as the standardized aspect of
the modular ferry concept, defining its overall dimensions. In other words, all modular
ferries will have the same standard overall dimensions. Within these constraints, each
modular ferry’s internal configuration is open to customization based on the operational
requirements outlined in Figure 6. Such a modularly designed ferry can achieve high
operational performance and be sustainable as an integral part of the public transportation
system.

3.4.1. Design

The modular ferry concept is proposed as an assembly of five principal modules. The
modules are envisaged as the hull, superstructure, engine and transmission, propulsion,
and control systems, bound together by a module integration system comprising of heating,
ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC) system, wiring, piping and inter module access.

The structural hierarchy is shown in Figure 8. The breakdown was envisaged such that
individual blocks of modules and submodules can be independently designed, manufactured
and transported. The dimensions of the modules and sub-modules, their overall design and
interfaces are standardized while the interior of modules and sub-modules are customizable.

21
 Figure 8. Hierarchy of components in the modular commuter ferry design concept.

The superstructure module and the hull module are further split into respective submodules
with each fulfilling a specific purpose (details can be found in Paper A). All submodules are
dimensioned such that they can be transported on trucks/trains. This will promote the idea
of decentralized manufacturing outside of the shipyard which will favour open market
competition leading to lower costs and higher innovation. The division into multiple
submodules promotes customizability, cross-ferry applications and reusability among the
many other advantages. More descriptions of their roles are presented in Paper A. Schematic
sketches of submodules are shown in Figure 9 and Figure 10.

Figure 9. Hull sub-modules and respective dimensions. The midbody sub-module is standardized
and repeatable while bow and aft submodules vary in form based on operational requirements.

Figure 10. Superstructure sub-module definitions for (a) larger and (b) smaller modular ferry
variants. (c) 3D layout of the superstructure.

22
Engine and Transmission, Propulsion and Control System principal modules have several
smaller components. They are usually manufactured separately and assembled in a
shipyard. These components including engines, tanks and thrusters come in different sizes
and configurations for wiring and piping which makes the general arrangement design a
tedious process for the engineer who must custom design each time.

Figure 11. (a) Red slots represent Engine and Transmission module group; yellow slots represent
Propulsion and green slots represent Control systems. (b) General Arrangement of these slots
within a catamaran and a monohull. The overall dimensions for these components were noted from
an ice going commuter ferry Yxlan in Stockholm. The dimensions represent the upper limit for
typical component sizes, thus allowing room for a large selection of component options.

To overcome this, Paper A proposed the idea of standardised interfaces for different
components. It is envisaged that the modular hull will have pre-designed slots as shown in
Figure 11(d). These slots will have standard input and output sockets for piping and wiring
making them compatible with each other irrespective of the manufacturing company. Any
given engine, irrespective of its piping and wiring configuration can be mounted within the
designated slot, which will connect to other components in a standardized way. Another
advantage of this concept is that the components can be installed in a plug-and-play setup,
23
promoting easy replaceability and upgrades. The layout idea is similar to that of a desktop
computer. However, this concept is at an idea stage and further work is required before it is
developed.

Figure 12: A sample catalogue of layout examples for sub-module type Z. (a), (b) and (d) represent
seating layouts typical for routes type A and C. (f), (g) and (h) represent open space layouts for
standing passengers and bike holders typically seen in route type B. (c) and (e) are examples of new
lines of thought representing on-board workstations and makeshift conference room.

The real strength of modular design lies in the customizability it offers to PTPs. Each
submodule can have many design variants as shown in Figure 12. By permutations, this can
lead to potentially thousands of ferry configurations.

In theory, modular design represents a tremendous potential to tailor the ferry to

operational requirements. However, in practice, it can be overwhelming to choose from so
many options. Decision-making becomes hard especially when two or more options fit
within the framework of local requirements. To aid the PTP in this process, a ranking and
selection method is developed in Paper B which compares different options and ranks them
according to their performance.

24
3.5. The Ranking and Selection Method
The efficiency of the modular ferry ultimately depends on the efficacy of its constituent
modules in meeting the operational requirements. For the PTP, this is a difficult choice in
the absence of comparable metrics describing module variants and this may lead to reliance
on subjective decision-making factors like experience, gut-feeling, and surface values. For
instance, a certain module variant may be marketed to showcase a higher perceived surface
value leading to the procurement of a sub-par variant to the modular ferry. Further, there
may be inadequate local information which gets multiplied in complexity due to the inter-
dependence of the many criteria defined under operational requirements. A wrong choice of
sub-modules may result in an inefficient modular ferry, thus defeating the proclaimed
efficiency of the concept.

To aid in the process of selection, a Design Performance Index (DPI) as part of a ranking
and selection method is introduced in Paper B. The proposed method effectively filters
through competing designs and then ranks them according to their suitability in meeting
operational requirements. To aid the PTPs, a user-friendly graphical user-interface (GUI)
was developed in Python.

The proposed method follows the three levels of the hierarchic process introduced under
operational requirements in Figure 6. At the primary level, the route type is identified, and
corresponding module variants associated with the route type are shortlisted. At the
secondary level, the shortlisted module alternatives are checked for conformance against
mandatory requirements encompassing weather conditions, operator requirements and
regulatory body requirements. Those modules that meet these requirements are forwarded
to the tertiary level for performance evaluation against environmental, social, and economic
key criteria using a methodology developed on the analytical hierarchical process proposed
by Saaty (1980). The definitions of these criteria and sub-criteria along with their governing
equations have been developed in Paper B.

Figure 13: Methodology for evaluating the performance of an alternative.

The flowchart for performance evaluation follows Figure 13 which results in a single
dimensionless index as a product of criteria weights and corresponding performance ratings
for the design alternative. The evaluation of weights is done in two stages. First, the primary
weights for the three key criteria are evaluated based on the user choices. Then, the

25
secondary weights for respective sub-criteria under the key criteria are evaluated. Their
product gives the cumulative weight for each sub-criterion. The weights help in sorting the
evaluatory criteria according to their user-perceived importance as shown in Figure 14.
Following this, each alternative is evaluated against each of these sub criteria on a 0-1 scale,
denoted as its performance rating. The summation of the product of cumulative weights and
performance ratings results in the DPI for the alternative. The DPI of the modular ferry is
expressed as a function of its constituent module DPIs. This ranks the ferry against
competing options. The equations describing the methodology can be found in Paper B.

Figure 14. 12 performance evaluation sub-criteria arranged by their order of importance.

Here, the method’s application in selecting the most suitable set of modules for the modular
ferry is demonstrated. The user interaction starts with a standard brochure of alternatives
as exemplified in Figure 15. The brochure contains a list of all module variants with data
fields corresponding to fields identified under the operational requirements hierarchy.
Economic performance dimensions are denoted in a common currency, social performance
dimensions are denoted in a standardized scale of 0 – 1 and environmental performance
dimensions are denoted in gram for emissions and dB for noise. Fields corresponding to
mandatory requirements contain 1 and 0 flags.

Figure 15. An example of an entry in the brochure of module variants.

26
The method has three stages – (a) User Input and choices. (b) Output – Evaluation of
performance of design alternatives (c) Selection – Customizing the modular ferry.

3.5.1. Application of method and demonstration of tool

Stage 1: User Input

Problem objective, definition and route type

In the first step, the route type, estimated passenger capacity and ferry size (one of two
variants) is defined by the user as shown in Figure 16. All modules that are flagged with the
chosen route type are shortlisted and sent for evaluation to the secondary level on mandatory
requirements.

Figure 16. Stage 1 – Step 1: User input corresponding to the first level of operational requirements
hierarchy

Mandatory requirements

In this step, the GUI presents a user-friendly way to tick mandatory requirements as shown
in Figure 17. All module alternatives that have corresponding flags fulfilling mandatory
requirements are passed onto the tertiary level for performance evaluation.

Figure 17. Stage 1– Step 2: Selection of mandatory requirements corresponding to the secondary
level of operational requirements hierarchy

27
 (c)
Intensity of Definition
Importance
1 Equal importance
3 Weak importance
5 Strong importance
7 Demonstrated importance
9 Absolute importance
2, 4, 6, 8 Intermediate values between any
two adjacent judgments
Reciprocal If activity i has a nonzero value
intensity of assigned to it when compared with
importance activity j, then j has the reciprocal
value when compared with i.
Explanation
Two criteria have equal importance
Experience and judgment slightly favour one
criterion
Experience and judgment strongly favour one
criterion
The dominance is demonstrated in practice
The evidence favouring one criterion is absolute
To be used when a compromise is needed
E.g., if A has weak importance over B. Then, A
gets a score of 3 and B gets a score of 1/3.

Figure 18: Stage 1 – Step 3: Selection of relative importance for (a) key performance criteria, (b)
performance sub-criteria. (c) Guidelines for assigning relative importance.

Assessment of relative importance of criteria and sub-criteria

In the next step, the user chooses the relative importance of environmental, social and
economic performance key criteria and sub criteria. The assessment of key criteria denotes
primary weights while that of sub-criteria results denotes secondary weights. The GUI for
selecting relative importance of criteria is shown in Figure 18. The choices vary between
cities. For example, in Stockholm, the WPT strategy centres around environmental
performance (Tanko et. al, 2018) while in Bangkok, it centres around economic performance
(Tanko & Burke, 2017).

28
Stage 2: Output
Comparison of criteria and sub-criteria

Once the user enters choices for relative importance on the slider bar in Figure 18, the output
in the form of Figure 19 show the weights of criteria and sub-criteria. For example, in this
hypothetical case, social performance was the most important criteria for the user and
economic performance was the least. At this stage, the user may go back and modify choices.

Note that, it is recommended that the assessment of relative importance be performed with
recommendations from respective stakeholders. This step is crucial as the final rating of the
alternative is sensitive to which criteria and sub-criteria was perceived important. Different
weights can lead to very different looking ferries.

Figure 19: Stage 2: Output for criteria and sub-criteria weights.

Ranking of alternatives

In the next step, the GUI outputs a comparison of all module alternatives based on their
overall, environmental, social, and economic performance. This is illustrated in Figure 20
where alternative X1 had the best overall performance for Type X submodule even though it
had the weakest environmental performance. The GUI helps visualising the ranking of all
alternatives which can help the user in decision making.

29
 Figure 20: Stage 2: Performance comparison of all module alternatives (a) overall performance, (b)
economic performance, (c) social performance and (d) environmental performance. The alternatives
are colour coded according to submodule and module type. The code for the design alternatives on
the horizontal axis refers to modules in the brochure which can be found in Paper B.

Stage 3: Selection
Using the performance comparison derived from Figure 20, the user may now pick
alternatives using the interface shown in Figure 21. Depending on the chosen module
alternatives the overall module and ferry DPIs keep updating on the right.

Figure 21: GUI for assembling the module shown on the left and output for module and ferry DPI
shown on the right.

30
This concludes the method’s application in configuring modular ferries. However, the
application of this method is not limited to modular ferries. It also finds use at (a) shipyards
as a strategic design tool in evaluating designs, (b) second-hand markets as a tool to rate
existing ferries and (c) refurbishment operations as a tool to highlight sensitive areas in the
ferry’s design. For example, the information in Figure 19 can be used to assess the relative
importance of all 12 sub-criteria as shown in Figure 14. This provides insight on which
factors are more sensitive to a change in performance and where the focus must be directed.
From the figure, efforts made towards improving service performance will boost the overall
performance much more than efforts made towards lowering maintenance costs.

Paper B also demonstrates the application of the ranking and selection method in evaluating
three existing ferries operating in Stockholm. The ferries are evaluated with respect to
environmental, social, and economic performance and respective strengths and weaknesses
are highlighted. This can lead to targeted action to improve the ferry’s overall DPI.

Applications of the modular ferry with appropriately picked modules, tailored for each route
type are shown in Figure 22-24 with more detailed descriptions in Paper A.

Figure 22: City Ferry for Route Type A. (a) Existing ferry in Brisbane (Picture: Wikimedia
Commons). (b), (c) Adaptation of modular commuter ferry. (d) General arrangement of the city
ferry tailored for operations in Brisbane.

Figure 23: Bridge Ferry for Route Type B. (a) Existing ferry in Gothenburg (Picture: Bo Ranstedt,
Wikimedia Commons). (b), (c) Adaptation of modular commuter ferry. (d) General arrangement of
the bridge ferry tailored for operations in Gothenburg.
31
 Figure 24: Suburban Ferry for Route Type C. (a) Existing ferry in Stockholm (Picture: Wikimedia
Commons). (b), (c) Adaptation of modular commuter ferry. (d) General arrangement of the city
ferry tailored for operations in Stockholm.

3.6. Concluding Remarks

The modular ferry concept along with the proposed operational requirements hierarchy and
the ranking method presents great potential in easing the process of ferry procurement
around the world and provide a sustainable concept to complement the existing public
transportation network. The concept pitches low cost, quick to procure off-the-shelf
customizable ferry options. The concept is future ready and presents access to adopting
future technology through modularity. However, the proposed modular ferry concept is at a
conceptual stage and thorough work is required in terms of investigating structural design,
interface design and legislative challenges. With further development, it would be possible
to see standardized ferries operating as part of WPT around the world leading to a more
sustainable public transportation-network. The modular standard ferry, as the equivalent to
bus and articulated bus in the mind-set of the PTP might be the key to sustainable use of the
free space on urban waters. The next section addresses the technical challenges identified in
Chapter 2 focusing on ice operations for the modular ferry.

32
4. Chapter 4
Technical challenges – Ice operations
A pertinent technical challenge in cities like Stockholm is the presence of ice in winters. Due
to ice, year-round operations become challenging which negatively affects the reliability of
WPT and lowers its social appeal among commuters. Moreover, the burden falls on alternate
land-based transport modes. This chapter looks at describing the ice-hull interaction in
freshwater ice and lays the foundation for investigating solutions for reliable ice operations.

Considerable research on ice-hull interaction can be found in the literature. However, the
underlying mechanisms and experiments conducted have primarily focused on the arctic
region. Ice found in this region is saline and a lot thicker than that found in inland waterways
of Sweden. Further, sea ice has been shown to have different mechanical properties due to
differences in the crystal lattice structure (Timco and Weeks, 2010). Also, ice properties vary
due to differences in dissolved air, composition of air, type of ice, forming conditions and
presence of impurities. Since existing ice load prediction methods are based on sea ice, they
cannot be directly applied for estimation of freshwater ice properties without incurring large
uncertainties (Cheemakurthy et al, 2018). This chapter highlights the work done on
estimating ice loads from available data based on a combination of probabilistic and
analytical methods in Paper C and a statistical analysis of uncertainties in Paper D. First
basic concepts surrounding the ice-hull interaction process and prevalent ice properties are
introduced.

4.1. Ice-Hull interaction

4.1.1. Ice failure mechanisms

Ice is a complex geophysical material. It is non-homogeneous, anisotropic and orthotropic

(Timco and O.’Brien, 1994). In nature, ice has been found with 18 types of packing
geometries. Both crystalline and amorphous forms of ice can be found in oceans. In addition,
its properties can vary considerably because of impurities and dissolved air. This
complicates the process of developing a physics-based model that accurately describes the
mechanical behaviour of ice. This repercussion of ice’s stochastic nature makes the hull-ice
interaction stochastic too. We can get a wide range of forces depending on the ice properties,
hull geometry and relative velocity (Lubbad and Løset, 2011). This has led to many
experimental studies on ice-hull interactions including finding local and global ice loads on
ships, interaction with ice ridges, icebergs, ice loads on fixed offshore structures and moored
floating structures.

33
 Figure 25: The crush-break-displace ice-hull interaction model.

Predominantly, ice-hull interaction can be summarised as a crush-break-displace process

(Figure 25). On first contact between the hull and an ice plate, localized crushing between
the vessel’s contact zone and the free edge of ice pate is observed. As the vessel thrusts
forward, it begins to climb the ice plate and we observe an increase in the contact area as
well as the crushing force. This ship’s forward motion creates a bending moment which
forces the ice plate to deflect downwards. The induced bending stress causes brittle failure,
and we observe cracking in the ice plate. The hydrodynamic forces then sweep the broken
pieces of ice to the aft of the vessel.

However, ice plates do not always fail due to bending. On impact with the vessel, an ice plate
may either fail by crushing, bending, shearing or a combination of these three modes. During
crushing failure, the in-plane uni-axial compressive strength of the ice plays an important
role (Timco and Frederking, 1990). At low vessel speeds, the ice plate undergoes ductile
deformation while at higher speeds it undergoes brittle flaking. Observations made at the
Molikpaq structure showed that failure by crushing is rare and was observed only 1% of the
time (Bekker et al., 2013). However, the forces encountered during crushing failure
contributed to some of the highest forces (Sodhi, 2001). The bending failure in ice usually
occurs in the bow area and results in extremely high local loads. The probability of ice failure
by bending depends on the hull shape, relative speed, and ice’s mechanical properties.
Splitting failure is another failure mode where the ice panel splits in the form of radial cracks
after collision with the hull. Finally, ice shearing failure is commonly observed on the ship
sides near the midship area where the hull is vertical relative to the ice plate (Kujala, 1994).
The failure occurs due to shearing of the ice plate where one edge is stuck to the ship in
relative motion against the ice plate.

4.1.2. Ice Loads

During the hull-ice interaction process, the hull undergoes loading which can be separated
into global and local loads. By considering the contact area between the hull and the ice, the
loads can be represented as pressures. Global ice pressures play a role in defining the vessel’s
overall strength requirements and in estimating the thrust required to overcome ice
resistance (Masterson and Frederking, 1993). The global ice loads are estimated by
averaging the forces experienced on the bow during impact (Blanchet et al., 1990). These
global forces are responsible for splitting, spalling and micro fracturing of ice. These forces
can vary significantly due to the presence of wind, currents, and drifting ice.
34
 Figure 26: Illustration of local pressures acting on the ship hull. Pressures within high pressure
zones are taken 1.8 times nominal pressure (Trafi, 2017).

The local pressures arise predominantly due to crushing between the hull and the ice. which
can be significantly higher than global pressures due to smaller contact areas (Jordaan et al.,
1993). The brittle nature of ice when crushed can lead to high impulse forces leading to
structural tears. These high local pressures are idealised to act on small rectangular contact
areas (Masterson and Frederking, 1993) and a high aspect ratio of 1:8. Within these areas,
there can exist smaller critical areas known as High-Pressure Zones (HPZ) (Jordaan, 2001)
as illustrated in Figure 26. The impulse forces peak in HPZs and must be given special
attention during hull design. Local pressure affects local structural design which governs
plate thickness, frame spacing and the size of bracing. Due to the complex nature of the ice
lattice, predicting local ice loads during the interaction is difficult. However, fair estimates
can be made if local ice properties are known.

4.2. Ice properties

Ice properties can be divided into its physical characteristics including ice type and
thickness, and its mechanical properties like flexural strength and compressive strength. Ice
in Swedish inland waterways can be classified as light first year ice as per definition by Timco
and Weeks (2010). The physical characteristics of ice is taken from the Swedish
Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) collected during winters between 1983
and 2017 for Lake Mälaren. The lake lies in the vicinity of Stockholm region and is assumed
representative of conditions in WPT by the authors.

4.2.1. Physical Characteristics

The ice thickness in Lake Mälaren predominantly varies between 10 – 30 cm comprising of

49% of total distribution, followed by 5 -10 cm at 20% and 30-50 cm at 9% respectively as
seen in Figure 27(a). The highest recorded ice thickness was observed in 1988, 1994, 1996
and 2003 at an excess of 70 cm. Yearly distribution of ice varies largely with mean ice

35
thickness value at 16 cm. Ice thickness has a direct influence on ice failure mechanisms, ice
loads, operational speed and the height of ice ridges (Timco and Weeks, 2010).

Figure 27: Distribution of physical ice characteristics between 1983 – 2017 in Lake Mälaren. (a) Ice
thickness predominantly varies between 5 and 30 cm. (b) Ice type. Predominant type of ice is level
ice at 48% followed by brash ice at 17% (Cheemakurthy et al., 2019).

The most common type of ice is level ice where the entire surface of the waterbody freezes
and is not affected by deformation (definition: WMO, 2014). It occurs 48% of the observed
period as per Figure 27(b). The next most common form of ice is brash ice which is like slush
and is found during the start of winter and beginning of spring when the ice begins to melt
and disintegrate. From Figure 27, brash ice occurs around 17% of the time followed by small
to medium sized ice floes at 10% and 8% respectively. Each type of ice has its own challenge
with level ice causing crushing and high pressure loads on the hull, ice floes causing the
danger of high impact collisions and brash ice testing the engine’s capacity in overcoming
ice resistance.

4.2.2. Mechanical Properties

The flexural strength is the most important mechanical property of ice as bending failure is
the predominant mode in the breaking stage of the crush-break-displace model. The flexural
strength varies along the ice field due to differences in the lattice structure owing to
impurities, forming conditions and other extrinsic factors like pressure, humidity,
temperature, brine volume, porosity (Timco and Weeks, 2010). Note the scatter in flexural
strengths in Figure 28(a) recorded from different experimental tests. For engineering
applications, it is assumed by Frederking and Timco (1983) that ice is uniform and
homogenous, thus having a uniform flexural strength.

Flexural strength can be calculated by performing beam tests in a cantilever or a three-point

setup. However, performing these tests are difficult due to the uncertainties associated with
non-ideal conditions. For example, the sawing action of the chainsaw used to saw out ice
blocks induces pre-stresses in the ice block; the beam is not a perfect cuboid and there are
large air bubbles with varying distribution within the ice blocks. Timco and Weeks (2010)
36
performed several such tests for sea ice and developed a formula for ice flexural strength as
a function of brine volume as,

𝜎𝑓 = 1.76𝑒 −5.88√𝑣𝑏 , [MPa] (1)

where 𝑣𝑏 is the brine volume and taken as zero for Lake Mälaren.

Figure 28: Flexural strength of ice in relation to thickness and salinity. The scatter is representative
of thin first year ice.

The problem with estimating freshwater ice properties from sea ice becomes evident here as
the predicated value of flexural strength based on Eq. 1 is 1.76 MPa which is unrealistically
high. Ice flexural strength observed in other fresh water bodies was between 453 and 648
kPa which is representative of Great Lakes and Lake Michigan, USA (Erceg et al. 2015 and
Keinonen et al. 1991). Further, Riska et al. (1997) assumed a flexural strength of 500 kPa in
his calculations for fresh water ice induced resistance. Considering a conservative approach
to design and a limiting ice thickness of 0.5 m the flexural strength of ice is assumed as 𝜎𝑓 =
648 kPa in the studies presented in paper C

Table 3: Summary of Lake Mälaren’s ice properties.

Parameter Value Units

Density 920 𝜌[kg⁄m3 ]
Young’s modulus 109
𝐸[Pa]
Poison’s ratio 0.3 𝜐
Ice thickness 0.32* ℎ𝑖[m]
Tensile strength 167 𝜎𝑡 [kPa]
Flexural strength 648 𝜎𝑓 [kPa]
Compressive strength 2000 𝜎𝑐 [kPa]
Crushing strength 196 𝜎𝑝𝑐 [kPa]
𝜺̇ is the loading rate, 𝝂𝑻 is the total porosity and 𝑨 is the design area
*Mean value of ice thickness based on Weibull distribution.

37
Other mechanical properties for Lake Mälaren are summarized in Table 3 and estimated
using the formulae given by Timco and Weeks (2010) and Kujala (1996) except the ice
compressive strength which is based on the Aker Arctic Report (2017) .

4.3. Ice Loads – Structural Loads and Ship Resistance

The loads acting on a vessel when navigating through ice can be divided into structural loads
and ice resistance. Due to an inadequate state of research on freshwater ice load prediction
methods, designers and classification societies prefer a conservative approach to design to
ensure safety. While this ensures safe operations, the downside is that the ship resistance,
particularly in open water, goes up due to the heavier structure. From a WPT’s context, this
results in higher emissions as well as higher operational costs which deters the PTPs. This
emphasises the importance of accurately predicting ice loads so that an efficient hull
structure may be designed.

Ice resistance is an important aspect when deciding the engine power output. For a ferry,
inadequate power would mean the vessel might get stuck in ice which could endanger the
lives of those aboard. On the other hand, an overpowerful engine would result in higher
emissions and operational costs. Correspondingly, a high-resolution method for the
prediction of ice resistance is desirable.

4.3.1. Class rules

For WPT ice navigation, there are no specific classification society rules. But the structural
loads can be predicted by rules designed for sea ice conditions. They give general
prescriptions for scantlings based on a combination of empirical data and physics-based
models. FSICR issued a new set of class regulations in 2017 stating structural, engine output
and navigation requirements for design of vessels. Designed vessels are classified as one of
six ice classes (IA Super, IA, IB, IC, II and III) based on the severity of ice conditions. Since
maximum observed ice thickness in Lake Mälaren is 70 cm, a commuter ferry operating here
would fall between class IA and IB. However, since a thickness over 50cm has occurred only
2% of the time in the past 37 years in Figure 27, we consider the WPT commuter ferry would
fall under class IB. This is equivalent to IACS Polar class 6 (PC6).

FSICR regulations for hull scantlings are based on certain assumptions. These were deduced
from full scale observations carried out in the Baltic Sea. The first assumption is the presence
of high-pressure zones (HPZ) introduced in Jordaan et al. (1993) as shown in Figure 26
where peak pressure can be up to 1.8 times nominal pressure. The second assumption states
that the pressure on frames is higher than on shell plating located between frames as
illustrated in Figure 29. Plastic limit states for the structure are not considered as part of the
formulations. This implies the conservative nature of class rules which ignore the beneficial
effects of strain hardening and membrane stresses (Cheemakurthy et al., 2019).

38
 Figure 29: Pressure distribution assumption on a stiffened panel (FSICR, 2017)

IACS PC 6 are classification society rules prevalent in USA. Unlike the empirical model in
FSICR, IACS incorporates factors for hull shape, hull crushing failure and ship displacement
in its formulation for design pressures. Plastic limit states are considered based on work
done by Daley (2002). In response to the lack of rules for freshwater ice conditions and the
risk of an overdesigned/under-designed ship due to classification society’s sea ice rules, a
probabilistic model is developed in Paper C to estimate the design pressure representative
of WPT. The predicted values are summarised in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of design pressure

Method Type Pressure

(MPa)
FSICR IB Average Peak 1.71 3.06
IACS PC 6 Average Peak 1.71 2.23
Probabilistic Rahman 1.354
Method Taylor 5.744
Lake Mälaren 2.622

4.3.2. Probabilistic model

To overcome the limitations associated with using classification society rules for freshwater
ice conditions and the uncertainties associated with environmental conditions, a
probabilistic model is developed. The design vessel used for investigation in Paper C was a
barge. However, the same analysis is valid for a WPT commuter ferry. The model follows the
general formulation given by Sanderson, (1988) relating the encountered ice pressure to the
contact area as,

𝛼 = 𝐶𝑎𝐷 . (2)

Where α is the pressure in MPa and a is the contact area in m. The parameters C and D are
empirical variables whose values depend on the experimental dataset used, as seen in Figure
30 . Many models developed from statistics follow this formulation, e.g. Masterson and
Frederking (1993), Jordaan et al. (1993), Taylor et al. (2010) and Rahman et al. (2015). The
differences in the values of C and D are due to differences in physical attributes like ice type,
thickness, or temperature. In general, higher C values denote heavier ice conditions. Based
on the data compiled in Figure 30, a design curve indicating the upper limit of encountered
ice pressures is given as,

𝛼 = 1.25𝑎−0.7 . (3)

The design curve is valid between design contact areas of 0.6 to 6 m2 according to Taylor et
al. (2010). For smaller areas, pressures within HPZs need to be considered.

39
 Figure 30: Nominal pressure vs contact area. Data compiled from different experiments in sea ice.
The upper limit is a design curve valid for contact areas larger than 0.6 m2 (Figure: Taylor et al.,
2010).

The nominal design pressures encountered during long exposure periods is denoted as 𝑍𝑒
and can be estimated as a function of exceedance probability 𝑃𝑒 as,

𝑃𝑒 = 1 − 𝐹𝑍 (𝑍𝑒 ) (4)

where 𝐹𝑍 is the ice cumulative distribution function and 𝑍𝑒 follows from,

𝑍𝑒 = 𝑥0 + 𝛼{− ln[− ln 𝐹𝑍 (𝑍𝑒 )] + ln 𝜈 + ln 𝑟}, (5)

where 𝑥0 is the exposure constant and is dependent on the design contact area, which can be
defined based on the chosen reference dataset from Figure 30 and 𝑣 is the number of events
(ice-hull hits and misses) and 𝑟 is the proportion factor. The number of events can be
calculated from the frequency of encounters and voyage duration. Hits and misses are
defined with respect to the ice pressure threshold which is a derivative of the dataset used.
Effective events 𝜇 may be calculated as,

𝜇 =𝑟∙𝑣 (6)

Given, design pressure 𝑍𝑒 , the ice force 𝐹 in kN can be calculated as:

𝐹 = 𝑍𝑒 ∙ 𝐴 (7)

where, 𝐴 is the HPZ area.

Equation (4), (6) and (7) together represent the probabilistic method. Here, it is crucial to
choose an appropriate probability of exceedance, that is indicative of WPT. A conservative
40
approach may lead to an overdesigned and heavy ferry while a lenient approach may lead to
an unsafe ferry. There are two common ways of choosing the probability of exceedance. First
is based on an Extreme-Level Ice Event (ELIE) which reflects design from a 1-in-100-year
occurrence. Exceedance probability is taken as 10–2 and structurally it represents mostly
elastic deformations with some plastic deformation. The second is based on an Abnormal-
Level Ice Event (ALIE) which reflects a 1-in-10,000-year occurrence. Probably of exceedance
is 10–4 with full plastic limit states expected, Ralph and Jordaan (2013).

The probabilistic approach is robust in the prediction of ice pressures for sea ice due to the
presence of datasets. However, the application for freshwater ice conditions is not straight
forward due to differences in ice type, thickness, and salinity. Moreover, using the design
curve would lead to a conservative over-dimensioned ferry. One solution would be to
conduct experiments to record ice loads in Lake Mälaren. Alternatively, we can choose
datasets from Figure 30 that match closely with freshwater ice conditions and base our
probabilistic model on that. This dataset when applied with correct ice exposure conditions,
such as ice concentration and number of ice-hull collisions could lead to a reasonable ice
pressure prediction.

Figure 31: Comparison of the modelled design equations for Lake Mälaren and original design curve
in Eq. 3. Design 1: 𝛼 = 0.15 + 0.256𝑎−0.6 ; Design 2: 𝛼 = 0.265𝑎−0.57 ; N. Bering 83 dataset: 𝛼 =
0.27 + 0.28𝑎−0.62 .

In paper C, two design reference datasets Taylor et al. (2010) and Rahman et al. (2005) were
found to be close to WPT conditions of freshwater first-year ice. They were selected to derive
the expected extreme load. Probability of exceedance for the datasets were 𝑃𝑒 = 0.5 and 𝑃𝑒 =
10−2 respectively. The final computed design loads are summarised along with classification
society rule predictions in Table 4. When, developed in the form of Eq. 3, we get a design
curve representative of Lake Mälaren. Two design pressure-area curves designated Design 1
and Design 2 are compared in Figure 31 with the original design curve from Eq. 3. The
different curves are discussed in Paper C. Of these curves, Design 2 based on N. Bering 83
41
dataset which matches closely with WPT conditions is chosen as the design equation for a
commuter ferry operating in Lake Mälaren. The resulting design equation is represented as,

𝛼 = 0.265𝑎−0.57 (8)

It is important to note that the probabilistic model is only as good as the parent dataset.
Moreover, there are many assumptions leading to Eq. 8. For WPT, economic and
environmental performance are sensitive to the weight of the ferry. Correspondingly, there
is a need for methods with higher resolution for predicting ice loads to avoid over-designed
ferries while ensuring safety. This can be done through the development of physics-based
analytical models validated with freshwater ice-load experiments. Work done in the
development of analytical models are not presented here. But interested readers may consult
Lindqvist (1989) for ice breaking length due to flexural bending, Kerr (1975) for ice bending
failure loads, Daley (1999) and Propov et al (1967) for ice crushing mechanisms and Kerr &
Palmer (1972), Kerr & Kwak(1993), Nevel (1958) and Nevel (1961) for ice bending failure
models.

4.3.3. Ice resistance models

For a WPT ferry, the resistance in ice waters is higher than that in open waters. In literature,
there exist many semi-empirical ship resistance models in ice. Lindqvist (1989) developed a
formula to calculate ice resistance based on many full-scale tests in the Bay of Bothnia. By
modifying the formulations of Lindqvist (1989), Riska et al. (1997) proposed a level ice
resistance formula with some empirical parameters. Keinonen et al. (1996) did research on
resistance of icebreaking vessels in level ice and developed a formula based on the results of
a study of escort operations involving five icebreaking vessels. Moreover, Jeong et al. (2010)
proposed a new ice resistance prediction formula for a standard icebreaker model using a
component method of ice resistance using non-dimensional coefficients based on model test
results. Hu and Zhou (2016) conducted model scale experiments and compared them with
analytical methods to assess accuracies and uncertainties with different methods.

Figure 32: Comparison of predicted and experimental ice resistances (Hu and Zhou 2016).

42
The comparison of different methods in Figure 32 shows that the Jeong (2010) formula gave
the best predictions in general. However, the predicted resistance depends a lot on the vessel
shape and dimensions. For a commuter ferry, an accurate resistance model that is validated
by experiments would be useful in deciding the required engine power. A correct estimation
of engine power would ensure that the engine is powerful enough to safely navigate in ice
while ensuring fuel economy and low emissions.

4.3.4. Statistical estimation of uncertainty

In the previous sections, the stochastic nature of ice and the lack of freshwater ice data was
highlighted. The assumptions made with regards to this can affect the predicted operational
time window for a commuter ferry. The operational time window refers to that period of the
year when the ferry can safely operate. It is a direct indicator of reliability in service defined
under social performance of the operational requirements in Chapter 3.

The study performed in Paper D looks at the overall transport system and tries to estimate
the total uncertainty arising from different factors. The analysis was performed for a barge
but would be applicable for a commuter ferry. All contributing factors to the ferry’s
operational time window (OTW) are arranged in a fish-bone diagram in Figure 33. The
factors are grouped under 5 primary criteria - Ship Resistance, Structural Loads, Machinery,
Ship Strength, and Operations. By identifying factors that cause the most uncertainty, design
improvements can be guided to achieve a higher confidence level.

Figure 33: A fish bone diagram depicting influence of different factors on the OTW for a commuter
ferry. Black boxes represent primary criteria, Grey boxes represent secondary criteria. The factors
are processed through a model or a method to give the OTW.

For evaluating individual factors´ contribution to uncertainty, Variation Mode and Effect
Analysis (VMEA) proposed by Svensson & Sandström (2014) can be used. Its modus
operandi is based on assigning statistical distributions to all essential sources of uncertainty,
performing a probabilistic evaluation, and using a pre-determined low probability of failure
to find a proper safety factor. The inherent problem of weak knowledge on statistical
43
uncertainties is solved by reducing the statistical complexity to second moment statistics
(Johansson et al., 2006). The approach helps reduce the uncertainty to a scalar measure of
standard deviation for each source.

VMEA helps identifying critical areas in terms of unwanted variation which can be used as
a reliability tool to deduce confidence level of OTW. There are three stages in which VMEA
can be performed. In the early pre-assessment stage, basic VMEA helps identifying different
sources that could influence OTW. When more information is available, the second stage of
enhanced VMEA is used that quantifies all uncertainties. At the third stage, probabilistic
VMEA predicts outcomes useful in advanced design stages. In paper D, only up to stage 2 of
VMEA is performed for identifying the most critical sources of uncertainty in assessing
OTW. The formulation for uncertainty is expressed as,

𝜏𝑖 = 𝑐𝑖 × 𝑠𝑖 (9)

where, 𝜏𝑖 is the uncertainty, 𝑐𝑖 is the sensitivity and 𝑠𝑖 is the uncertainty size. The derivation
and methodology for VMEA are described in Paper D. Evaluations of sensitivity and
uncertainty size are carried out using information from operators, statistical agencies,
scientific literature, and engineering judgment.

The results in Figure 34 show the contribution to total uncertainty from different factors.
The ice load evaluation methods had the largest contribution to overall uncertainty (72%)
due to the scatter in predicted design pressures arising from different methods. The
evaluation methods for ship resistance in ice covered waters were the second biggest factor
which contributed to 17%.

Figure 34: Pie chart of contributions to overall uncertainty from different sources

The overall uncertainty in predicting the OTW for a commuter ferry during winter months
can be greatly decreased if methods are improved with respect to the assessment of ice loads
and resistances in freshwater ice conditions. This reinforces the need for performing
experimental tests or developing analytical models to validate the probabilistic model and
have a good estimation of OTW. Such development would enable more weight optimal
designs improving both environmental and economic performance and make WPT more
appealing.
44
4.4. Concluding Remarks
For reliable WPT, the commuter ferries must be weight optimized to safely navigate ice while
being light enough to be economical and environmentally friendly. For doing so, we need a
good estimate on ice loads and resistance. Loads arising from ice – hull interactions are
difficult to predict with a high degree of confidence due to the large variation in ice
properties, lack of data on freshwater ice and the stochastic nature of ice-hull interactions.
The classification rules and the probabilistic model for predicting ice loads represent a very
good estimate of what freshwater ice loads could be. However, as seen in the statistical study,
prediction methods represent the highest source of uncertainty in the operational time
window. This lays the scope for validating the probabilistic model and the development of
more robust methods through experiments and analytical models.

45
46
5. Chapter 5
Conclusions and Future Work
Waterborne public transportation (WPT) represents an exciting opportunity for PTPs
around the world in complementing the present public transportation network. Of the
hurdles identified in utilizing WPT, most pertinent relate to procurement and other
institutional challenges. In cities like Stockholm, ice is an additional technical challenge for
achieving sustainable operations. This thesis looks at these challenges and proposes a novel
concept for modular commuter ferries that can ease procurement and make ferries
accessible off-the-shelf. It also looks at the current state of the art in methods for predicting
ice loads along with the repercussions of uncertainties in the included variables. Reiterating
the research questions, the thesis sought to answer - (a) What vessel size and type are
representative of WPT? (b) What operational requirements are characteristic of WPT? (c)
How can WPT be made more attractive for the PTP? (3) What are the technical challenges
with respect to ice loads on ferry operations? (f) What are characteristic ice loads
experienced by a ferry in WPT operations? (f) How can one predict ice-loads for freshwater
ice conditions?

5.1. Conclusions
Principal challenges of WPT
The principal challenges being faced by WPT can be divided into implementation and
technical challenges. Of implementation challenges, funding constraints, competition from
other modes, lack of political will, lack of opportunity, local legislation and policies are
important. In addition, poor accessibility to efficient ferries is identified as a fundamental
challenge. Ferries either have long construction times and high procurement costs or are
second-hand vessels that are poor in meeting local requirements, which discourage the PTP
in opting for WPT. It is easier to add second-hand vessels into the existing PT-network rather
that exploring new opportunities. The low interest drives down any scope for development
grants which further adds to the plight of WPT today.

Of technical challenges, emissions, autonomous drive, and operations in ice have caught the
interest of stakeholders. There has been considerable interest in the field of emission-free
propulsion systems and autonomous vessels but efforts in improving freshwater ice
operability is lacking and most research is focussed within the arctic region. The niche
market and demand for such ferries has led to low development initiatives and all existing
ferries rely on empirical rule-based designs that often result in heavy vessels that lag in
performance in ice free waters. If these challenges are met, there lies tremendous potential
in utilizing WPT as a viable complement to the existing public transportation network and
achieve efficient routing while easing the problems of congestion and pollution in cities.

47
Characterization of WPT and its representative operational requirements
WPT routes can be broadly classified into one of three route types – A, B and C. These route
types have specific, unique characteristics and helps the designer at the early design stages
in deciding the nature of the ferry. An operational requirements framework is introduced
such that each WPT operational profile can be efficiently described. The framework is
organized in a three-level hierarchy where the primary level classifies route type, the
secondary level checks for weather, operator, and regulatory constraints and the tertiary
level looks at maximizing performance on the basis of environmental, social, and economic
criteria.

WPT Ferry key characteristics

WPT ferries corresponding to the defined operational requirements hierarchy may be
reduced to two variants of principal dimensions. These dimensions are representative of
WPT and lay the foundation for achieving standardization in ferry designs. Two size variants,
representing a large and a small variant, were envisaged considering flexibility in
maintaining a high occupancy ratio without sacrificing the ferry’s journey frequency. For the
ferries, an operational speed in the range of 8 – 15 knots is identified, depending on the route
type. The advantage of standardization of principal dimensions is that it negates repetitive
preliminary design development for each new order at shipyards. The resources saved
should directly reflect in cost reduction and time savings of the procured ferry. In addition
to principal dimensions, charts comparing energy consumption at different speeds for
differences in hull material, number of passengers, propulsion type, hull type and vessel size
are presented. The plots can be used as a decision-making tool for choosing a suitable hull
for a given set of operational parameters.

Modular Commuter Ferry

The proposed modular commuter ferry concept is an assembly of 5 principal modules and
respective sub-modules. The module dimensions are built upon the standardization aspects
introduced by the WPT ferry metrics. Within this design framework, individual modules of
the ferry can be customized according to the operational requirements hierarchy. This
results in the opportunity to deliver tailor-made ferries in a cost and time efficient manner.
Different combinations of module variants will lead to ferries having different operational
profiles. The concept enables off-the-shelf procurement of ferries that is open for the PTP’s
involvement at various design stages of ferry development from design to delivery.

Ranking and Selection method

The modular ferry presents immense possibilities for customization, but its efficiency
depends on the choice of constituent modules. This choice can be daunting when there are
several modules that meet the given mandatory requirements. To aid in the selection
process, a ranking and selection method is developed, which ranks all alternatives against
given operational requirements and user choices. The method is developed and illustrated

48
by a GUI tool for the PTP. The tool is anticipated to also be useful in (a) Shipyards as a tool
to receive precise requirements, compare alternate designs and as a strategic tool to allocate
resources, (b) Second-hand markets as a tool to rate all existing ferries for the buyer to
choose from, and (c) Refurbishment operations as a tool that points towards ferry’s
characteristics that need urgent attention.

Ice Conditions
For ice operations in and around the Stockholm region, Lake Mälaren is chosen as the
reference for acquiring data on the prevalence of ice. It was possible to source data from
SMHI for ice type, thickness, salinity, and concentration. The ice thickness can vary from a
few cm up to over 70 cm. The mean is observed around 16 cm. Of ice type, the data indicates
an almost equal incidence of level ice and broken ice. Of these, level ice holds importance in
the assessment of structural loads which arise due to ice breaking and crushing. Brash ice is
more important in assessing the ship’s resistance. Ice mechanical properties are however
not available for Lake Mälaren and the studies in paper C and D relies on published empirical
methods or data sourced from alternative freshwater bodies.

Ice load prediction methods

Two ice-load prediction methods are discussed in this thesis. The first is based on
classification society rules. The second is based on a probabilistic estimation derived from
data sets obtained for first year thin ice conditions in the North Sea. Both have their own
respective advantages and shortcomings.

Of classification society rules, IACS PC6 and FSICR are commonly referred. IACS considers
the geometry of the bow and allows for some structural plastic deformation resulting from
the design loads. FSICR on the other hand considers overall dimensions without
consideration for plastic deformation. However, it proposes a load incidence in the form of
a sinusoidal distribution on the hull structure which gives rise to high and low-pressure
zones. Both methods are easy to use and provide a good starting iteration for WPT conditions
when there is limited information on ice.

The probabilistic method follows datasets of experiments carried out in the arctic region
comprising of sea-ice. All datasets are represented as a set of pressure area curves having a
hyperbolic form. The most extreme case defines the design curve. This is not representative
for the thin first year ice usually found in WPT conditions. The probabilistic method focuses
on the ice-hull interaction in the form of collisions that exert an ice crushing force on the
hull. Using this, pressures inside the HPZ are predicted given a probabilistic level of
exceedance. Since this level can significantly define the predicted ice pressure load, its choice
must be made very carefully. In the absence of field tests, values used in papers C and D are
taken from a North Sea dataset having first year thin ice conditions representing conditions
closest to Swedish WPT. In comparison with classification society rules, this provides a more
relevant estimate for ice load prediction. However, it must be noted that the probabilistic
model is yet to be validated with experiments.

49
Uncertainties in ice operations
Ice is a complex material. Its mechanical properties depend on the conditions of its
development. In nature, the ice formation’s boundary conditions and initial conditions vary,
which results in a diverse range of ice properties. The predictions made in the probabilistic
model are done based on recorded data. However, the unpredictability arises from the
nature of ice loads and uncertainties in the analysis of the ice conditions during operations.
These uncertainties was analysed using VMEA which is a statistical tool for determining the
largest contributors to uncertainty in a given situation. The results suggest that, the
evaluation methods had the largest contribution to overall uncertainty due to the variance
in predictions from the different established methods. Evaluation methods for structural
loads contributed to 72% of overall uncertainty, followed by evaluation methods for ship
resistance in ice covered waters which contributed to 17%. If these methods can be made
more robust through more accurate or precise field experiment data, we could greatly reduce
the uncertainties involved in assessment of ice operations. This would improve the reliability
of the WPT service in sustaining reliable operations throughout the year.

5.2. Future Work

The second part of the research objectives in Chapter 1 form the core of research yet to be
performed. The work shall build upon the findings highlighted in this thesis which laid the
concept of a ferry and studied prevalent ice conditions and proposed ice load estimation
methods.

A successful ferry concept that is capable of year-round operations in Stockholm must be

capable of navigating safely in ice while being economically and environmentally sustainable
during ice-free months. With this as the fundamental requirement, the next part of the thesis
focuses on looking at materials and structural arrangements for the ferry’s hull. Research
objectives for addressing this can be summarised as,

a) Investigation of ice-hull interaction mechanisms, focussing on the bow region.

b) Investigating different hull materials including metals, composites, hybrids, and
sandwich structures in carrying the design loads defined in Chapter 4.
c) Investigating alternative structural arrangement concepts for its response during
hull-ice interactions.
d) A life cycle analysis of the different materials involved in the ice going modular ferry
concept.

These studies will support the design of an efficient ferry concept that is comparable in
performance with alternate public transportation modes and reliable in overcoming any
technical impediments posed by ice.

50
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Appended Papers

56