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Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441
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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

The
The 12th
12th International
International Conference
Conference Interdisciplinarity
Interdisciplinarity in
in Engineering
Engineering

Artificial
Artificial intelligence
intelligence based
based prediction
prediction model
model for for the
the long-term
long-term heat
heat
flux losses through
Manufacturing ground
Engineering Society applied to
International large non-residential
flux losses through ground applied to large non-residential buildings
Conference 2017, MESIC buildings
2017, 28-30 June
2017, Vigo (Pontevedra), Spain
Ancuța
Ancuța Maria Măgureana,a, *,
Maria Măgurean *, Levente
Levente Czumbil
b
Czumbilb,, Daniela
Daniela Lucia
Lucia Manea
a
Maneaa,, Dan
Dan Doru
Doru Micu
Micub
b

Costing models for capacity optimization in Industry 4.0: Trade-off

0F

0F

a
Department of Civil Engineering and Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca,
a
Department of Civil Engineering and Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca,
bbetween used capacity
Gh. Barițiu and operational
street, 25, Cluj-Napoca, 400027, Romania efficiency
Gh. Barițiu street, 25, Cluj-Napoca, 400027, Romania
Department of Electrotechnics and Measurements, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca,
b
Department of Electrotechnics and Measurements, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca,
Gh. Barițiu street, 26-28, Cluj-Napoca, 400027, Romania
Gh. Barițiu
a street, 26-28, Cluj-Napoca, 400027,
b Romania
A. Santana , P. Afonso , A. Zanin , R. Wernke
a,* b

a
University of Minho, 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal
Abstract b
Unochapecó, 89809-000 Chapecó, SC, Brazil
Abstract
One of the most important directions towards global CO2 emissions and primary energy consumption reduction is to increase
One of the most important directions towards global CO2 emissions and primary energy consumption reduction is to increase
energy efficiency in the sector of residential and non-residential buildings. The evaluation of building envelope heat losses
energy efficiency in the sector of residential and non-residential buildings. The evaluation of building envelope heat losses
Abstract
through ground, as part of the building energy demand and energy consumption, it still has a lack of comprehensive knowledge
through ground, as part of the building energy demand and energy consumption, it still has a lack of comprehensive knowledge
relative to the large buildings. This article aims to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to allow long-term prediction of the heat
relative to the large buildings. This article aims to use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to allow long-term prediction of the heat
Under
transfer the
lossesconcept
through of "Industry
ground during 4.0",
heatingproduction processes
season for the will be slabs,
large dimensions pushed to are
which be specific
increasingly interconnected,
for many non-residential
transfer losses through ground during heating season for the large dimensions slabs, which are specific for many non-residential
information
buildings, in based onreduce
order to a real the
timesignificant
basis and, necessarily,
resources neededmuch more
for the efficient.
numerical In thisincontext,
analysis capacitystate.
time-dependent optimization
A hybrid
buildings, in order to reduce the significant resources needed for the numerical analysis in time-dependent state. A hybrid
approach
goes is proposed
beyond the by developing
traditional aim ancapacity
of application to study a lesscontributing
maximization, investigated area
also of
forcivil engineering. profitability and value.
organization’s
approach is proposed by developing an application to study a less investigated area of civil engineering.
Indeed, lean management and continuous improvement approaches suggest capacity optimization instead of
© 2018
© 2018 The
2019 The Authors.
The Authors. Published
The Published by Elsevier
by Ltd.
maximization.
© Authors. study
Published by Elsevier
of capacity
Elsevier Ltd.
optimization
Ltd. and costing models is an important research topic that deserves
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
contributions
This is an openfrom
accessboth theunder
article practical
the CCand theoretical
BY-NC-ND perspectives.
license This paper presents and discusses a mathematical
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the 12th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering.
model
Selectionforand
capacity management
peer-review based on of
under responsibility different
the 12thcosting models
International (ABC and
Conference TDABC). A in
Interdisciplinarity generic model has been
Engineering.
developed and it was used to analyze idle capacity and to design strategies towards the maximization
Keywords: Applied artificial intelligence; Building heat losses prediction; Ground time-dependent heat transfer; Neural networks; of organization’s
Numerical
Keywords:
value. TheApplied artificial
trade-off intelligence;
capacity Building heat losses
maximization vs prediction; Ground
operational time-dependent
efficiency is heat transfer;
highlighted and Neural
it is networks;
shown Numerical
that capacity
analysis;
analysis;
optimization might hide operational inefficiency.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
1. Introduction
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Manufacturing Engineering Society International Conference
1. Introduction
2017.
In 2005, Kyoto Protocol entered into force as part of COP3 initiatives. In 2015, within COP21, the Paris
In 2005,
Keywords: Kyoto ABC;
Cost Models; Protocol entered
TDABC; into
Capacity force asIdle
Management; part of COP3
Capacity; initiatives.
Operational In
2015, within COP21, the Paris
Efficiency
Agreement was negociated and 196 countries made the consensus that efforts will be made in order to limit the
Agreement was negociated and 196 countries made the consensus that efforts will be made in order to limit the

1. Introduction
*
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +4- 0264-401-462.
Corresponding
The cost author.
of idle Tel.: +4-is0264-401-462.
capacity a fundamental information for companies and their management of extreme importance
E-mail address: ancuta.magurean@cif.utcluj.ro; levente.czumbil@ethm.utcluj.ro
E-mail address: ancuta.magurean@cif.utcluj.ro; levente.czumbil@ethm.utcluj.ro
in modern production systems. In general, it is defined as unused capacity or production potential and can be measured
in several©ways:
2351-9789 tons
2018 The of production,
Authors. available
Published by Elsevier Ltd.hours of manufacturing, etc. The management of the idle capacity
2351-9789 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an Afonso.
* Paulo open access
Tel.:article under
+351 253 510the761;
CC BY-NC-ND
+351 253license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
This is an open access article under the CC fax:
BY-NC-ND 604 741
license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection
E-mail and peer-review
address: under responsibility of the 12th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering.
psafonso@dps.uminho.pt
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the 12th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering.

2351-9789 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review
2351-9789 © under
2019responsibility
The Authors. of the scientificbycommittee
Published Elsevier of the Manufacturing Engineering Society International Conference 2017.
Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the 12th International Conference Interdisciplinarity in Engineering.
10.1016/j.promfg.2019.02.237
 Ancuța Maria Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441 435
2 A. M. Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2018) 000–000

global temperature increase this century well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the
temperature increase even further to 1.5 oC [1].
In order to achieve this goals, CO2 has to be reduced and large scale energy efficiency measures have to be
implemented. One European Community commitment under the Kyoto Protocol is represented by the already well
known Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), recast in 2010 and 2018, with objectives as nearly zero-
energy buildings for new and refurbished existent public buildings after 2020, respectively after 2018 [2].
Along with the raised interest in increasing energy efficiency in buildings as one of the main potential global
solutions for the greenhouse gas emissions reduction, some areas less researched in the field come to light. One of
these areas is the heat transfer through ground for the slabs of large buildings, as part of the building envelope heat
losses.
The lack of comprehensive knowledge in this field influence the building envelope heat losses, as part of the
building energy demand and energy consumption, especially in the range of non-residential buildings, such as:
heated/ conditioned industrial halls used as production buildings or office buildings, commercial buildings, shopping
malls or even educational buildings. To improve this field in terms of energy efficiency, a comprehensive approach
of this subject is required.
A set of numerical models have been proposed by Bahnfleth [3], Deru [4] and others [5], [6], but usually models
are either numerically simplified (bidimensional) [6], [5], either the studied period of time for the tridimensional
models is reduced because of significant amount of computer resources required, or tridimensional numerical model
involve a small / medium size slab on ground [7], which cannot treat in an appropriate manner the phenomenon.
In case of the large slabs on ground the central area of the slab could have a different behavior during heated winter
season.
The building’s long time-dependent heat transfer at the ground level for the large dimensions slabs by using
tridimensional numerical analysis remains an area that has been less researched, because of the computation time
and memory storage significant requirements. In order to overcome this drawback, a change of paradigm is needed
by combining traditional engineering methods with new artificial intelligence based techniques, so a hybrid model is
proposed.
Beside the traditional engineering method which is using the thermo-dynamic equations that allows knowledge of
the physical behavior of the building and the interaction with the surrounding ground, in this paper an AI-based
prediction model is proposed to predict in a significantly shorter time the heat transfer through ground corresponding
for a long-time period.
As regarding Artificial Intelligence models, various tools that predict building energy consumption are used since
the 1990s, classified as engineering methods, AI-based methods and hybrid methods [8]. Although is not a popular
method, the hybrid approach, also known as “grey box”, integrates both engineering methods and AI-based methods,
with the main advantage that eliminate some limitations of each method type [9].
Kalogirou and Bojic [10] used Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) into an AI-based model, to predict the energy
consumption of a passive solar building, for the building being all insulated and for the same building being partially
insulated, for two seasons, winter and summer. Simulated data by using a dynamic thermal building model based on
finite volumes method were used to train an ANN in order to predict the energy consumption in kWh, for a range of
different wall thicknesses. Although the time scale of the prediction was for 12 h, their study is an early approach of
the AI-based models into the prediction of energy consumption of buildings.
Another AI-based model was proposed by Ekici and Aksoy [11] to predict the heating energy demand. They
studied three types of buildings, two of them with the same bottom area, using three different form factors. The
inputs of the network were considered the building transparency ratio, orientation (nine different orientations) and
insulation thickness (without and with for different thermal insulation thicknesses), as well as pre-calculated heating
demand for some samples. The limitation of the model consist in the training data which was chosen to be the
heating energy demand determined through a time-dependent state one-dimensional explicit finite difference
numerical model.
In our study a mixed approach is considered, carrying out detailed analyzes using numerical methods to establish
input data for neural networks that allows the prediction of the building's response regarding hourly heat flux values
integrated for a slab on ground, for a period of 20 years without being necessary to continue numerical analysis.
To achieve that, the neural network solution solves a pattern recognition problem using Neural Network Toolbox in
MATLAB.
436 Ancuța Maria Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441
A. M. Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2018) 000–000 3

2. Long time-dependent numerical analysis for a slab on ground

An hourly step three-dimensional numerical analysis was performed for a 30x30 m size uninsulated slab on
ground, including its interaction with a masonry wall, located on a massive of ground. The analysis was performed
for 8 years, including 7 heating seasons.
The main assumptions taken for this analysis were:

• The thermal conductivity values, heat capacity and density of the materials are constant during simulation
period;
• The time step of the analysis is hourly, for eight years of analysis using ASHRAE (American Society of
Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers) provided data for outdoor air values for Cluj-Napoca;
• Due to problem symmetry, the model is reduced to a bisymmetric corner of a 15x15 m size reinforced concrete
slab on ground;
• The soil moisture interaction is not taken into account for this long time-dependent proposed model;
• The thermal inertia of the ground it is taken in the process of heat transfer.

2.1. Geometry

The analyzed model proposes a large geometry, in accordance with EN ISO 10211 requirements for detailed heat
flow analysis in buildings. The interaction of the slab with a 29 cm thickness masonry wall plastered with cement
mortar was also included and the analyzed model was extended with a surrounding ground region of 20 m length
from the building façades.
Bahnfleth and Pedersen [3] identified a significant impact on the chosen depth of the soil with a difference up to
12% for the mean heat loss between 10 m and 15 m depth. Hillel [12] used an analytical solution of the heat
equation for the unidirectional case, of which results were later compared with physically monitored data [13],
which proves that the ground temperature become constant around the depth of 10 m, independently of the outdoor
temperatures variation. By using a mixed approach of monitorised soil temperatures from Romania’s locations
(Cluj-Napoca and Reghin) up to 2 m below ground, with the use of an analytical solution of heat equation to
determine temperature values for other depths, Bălan et al. [14] also revealed that around 10 m under the ground the
soil temperature is constant. According to this research data, considering the temperature variation in soil, the depth
of the ground was chosen to be 10 m. A higher depth for the soil geometry is not justified.

2.2. Material properties

A simplification in the modeling refers to soil properties: thermal conductivity and heat capacity do not vary over
time, not depending on humidity, porosity and frost effects, therefore the temporal constancy and spatial
homogeneity hypotheses of the properties are being used.
Detailed research in this field [5], [6], [12] showed the preponderance of conduction effect as the main mode of
heat transfer to the soil. Therefore, the analyzes carried out do not concern the transfer of moisture and mass, but
only the conductive component. The thermotechnical characteristics for the materials used in the model are
presented in Table 1:
Table 1. Thermotechnical characteristics for the used materials.
Building element Material Thermal Apparent Heat mass
conductivity, λ density, ρ capacity, c
W/(m∙K) kg/m3 J/(kg∙K)
Walls Brick masonry 0.8 1800 840
Cement mortar 0.93 1800 840
Slab on ground Reinforced concrete 1.74 2500 840
Soil type 1 1.16 1800 840
Surrounding ground Soil type 2 2 1800 1110
 Ancuța Maria Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441 437
4 A. M. Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2018) 000–000

2.3. Boundary conditions

To define the connection of the proposed model with the environment, third-order boundary conditions were
applied. For the upper surface of the soil and for the building, Robin simplified condition were introduced as: hourly
air temperatures and superficial coefficients of convective heat transfer. Superficial radiation heat transfer
coefficients were introduced as well with constant values.
For the indoor and outdoor temperatures functions of type f(t) = T were introduced in the model. In Fig. 1 is
presented the hourly variation of outdoor temperatures for one year in Cluj-Napoca, Romania:

40
Outdoor Temperature [⁰C]

30
20
10
0
-10
-20
256
511
766
1

1021
1276
1531
1786
2041
2296
2551
2806
3061
3316
3571
3826
4081
4336
4591
4846
5101
5356
5611
5866
6121
6376
6631
6886
7141
7396
7651
7906
8161
8416
8671
Hour of the Year[h]

Fig. 1. Hourly outdoor temperatures for Cluj-Napoca, Romania [°C]

For indoor air temperature, a second data function was proposed to maintain a constant value of 20 °C into the
building for the heating season and a variation between 20 and 25 oC for the rest of the year, which correspond for
the period of the year when the building is not heated. The analysis was made, considering the heating season
starting at October 15th and ending at April 15th next year.
Constant numerical values for both the convective and the radiation component of the boundary conditions (hi,
he) were used as follows:

• hi = 0.125 W/(m2∙K) – for horizontal flow transfer (indoor conditions);

• hi = 0.167 W/(m2∙K) – for downward vertical flow transfer (indoor conditions);
• he = 0.042 W/(m2∙K) – for horizontal/ downward vertical (outdoor conditions).

For the ground, on the lower surface of the model, a constant temperature (Tground = 9oC) boundary condition was
defined (a particular case of Dirichlet type conditions in which the body surface is isothermal over time), while for
the sectioning limits of the model, adiabatic limits (Neumann type conditions) were used.

2.4. Computation considerations

An eight year / seven heating seasons analysis was made, starting at October 15th, year 1 (the beginning of the
first heating season) until April 15th, year 8.
After several similar models were studied: Kruis [5], Janssen [6], Deru [4], a steady-state initialization method
was chosen according to simulation step 6889 from year 1, which correspond for the first day of the first analyzed
heating season. Then, the time-dependent analysis began using the results from the steady-state analysis as entry
data values. The temperature distribution for the steady-state initialization is presented in Fig. 2.
The equation solved for this model are the Laplace type equation, eq. (1), for the steady-state analysis and the
Fourier’s equation, for the time-dependent study eq. (2).

− λ ⋅ ∇ 2T = 0 (1)

1 ∂T
⋅ = ∇ 2T
ρ ⋅ c ∂t (2)
438 Ancuța Maria Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441
A. M. Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2018) 000–000 5

Fig. 2. Isothermal surfaces of the analyzed model after initialization

A variable size mesh was employed, using tetrahedral finite elements, with a fine mesh for the building elements,
the surrounding ground near the building and the ground surface, and a coarse mesh away from these areas.
The mesh was refined until the numerical solution was independent of the mesh size.
A maximum hourly time-step was imposed and corresponds with the outdoor data temperatures variation. A
linear system solver was used based on the generalized minimum residual method (GMRES), which is known as fast
and memory-efficient iterative method for elliptic and parabolic equations as eq. 1, respectively eq. 2 are. The
numerical analysis was made on an Intel Core i7 950 2.66 GHz computer with 8 GB RAM memory.
The computational time was quite long, 14 days of computation were necessary for only the first 4 years of
simulation. The obtained simulation results consist in 56952 hourly heat flux values integrated for the slab on ground
surface. A selection of the obtained heat flux results are presented in Table 2. The first 17568 heat flux values, which
corresponds to the period of October 15th, year 1 to April 15th, year 5 (the first 4 heating seasons), were used as
training data for the proposed ANN prediction model.
Table 2. Hourly heat flux values obtained through numerical simulation

Year 1 Year 2 ... Year 5 ... Year 7 Year 8

Hour Heat Flux Hour Heat Flux … Hour Heat Flux … Hour Heat Flux Hour Heat Flux
[W] [W] [W] [W] [W]
6889 897.38 7297 1038.82 ... 745 1457.23 ... 2161 1202.96 2511 1080.51
6890 897.41 7298 1038.15 ... 746 1458.57 ... 2162 1198.55 2512 1082.15
6891 897.44 7299 1038.59 ... 747 1459.71 ... 2163 1194.47 2513 1083.15
6892 897.45 7300 1040.04 ... 748 1461.02 ... 2164 1191.34 2514 1083.18
6893 897.45 7301 1042.09 ... 749 1462.77 ... 2165 1189.48 2515 1082.18
6894 897.47 7302 1044.29 ... 750 1465.02 ... 2166 1188.96 2516 1080.32
6895 897.55 7303 1046.17 ... 751 1467.62 ... 2167 1189.63 2517 1078.04
6896 897.67 7304 1047.35 ... 752 1470.33 ... 2168 1191.20 2518 1075.75
6897 897.82 7305 1047.58 ... 753 1472.90 ... 2169 1193.33 2519 1073.87

3. An ANN model for the prediction of the heat losses for a long period of time

The proposed ANN solution will predict the hourly heat flux value (output data) based on the hour of the year
(Input data 1, with values between 1 and 8760) and the number of the year (Input data 2, with values starting from
1), for each year of the analyzed period. In order to find the optimal AI prediction model, several back-propagation
feedforward neural network architectures have been tested. Multiple layer networks with one output layer (OL) and
two hidden layers (HL1, HL2) have been implemented using tangential sigmoid transfer functions on each hidden
layer of neurons (see Fig. 3). The number of neurons for each hidden layer was proposed to be, by turn: 5, 10, 15,
20, 25, 30, which made 36 network architectures that were analyzed.
6 Ancuța
A. M. MariaetMăgurean
Măgurean et al.Manufacturing
al. / Procedia / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441
00 (2018) 000–000 439

Fig. 3. Implemented two-hidden layer / one output layer neural network architecture

The results from the first half of the investigated period have been used as training data for the neural network;
this period corresponds to the firsts 4 heating seasons (17568 data sets). The other half has been used to test and
validate the prediction provided by the implemented neural networks.
The chosen training algorithm was an improved generalization method, Bayesian regularization developed by
MacKay [15], which determine the optimal regularization parameters (weights and biases) and forces the network
response to be smoother in an automated manner.
Regarding the input / target data sets used to train the investigated neural network architectures, during the
training process, these data sets were randomly divided as follows: 85% for training, 5% for data validation and 10%
for intermediary testing. The average training time for one neuronal network configuration was around 1 h, which
correspond in the FEM analysis with a 24 h investigated period.

4. Results and discussion

Finite Element Method simulation data from the last three studied heating seasons (period of 15th October year 5
to 15th April year 8) was used for the short-term ANN prediction data verification and validation. The performance
of the implemented ANN architectures was determined based on the average and maximum prediction data error
values.
Table 3. Results for the predicted data
HL1 HL2 5 10 15 20 25 30
AvgErr 1.49 0.74 17.52 47.45 0.37 0.36
5 MaxErr 7.73 3.89 89.53 1649.32 1.67 1.80
R2 0.983 0.995 -2.449 -226.162 0.999 0.999
AvgErr 0.69 0.48 0.40 0.41 0.36 0.32
10 MaxErr 4.08 2.79 2.10 1.79 2.45 1.55
R2 0.995 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999
AvgErr 248.11 2.64 32.62 0.77 0.38 0.31
15 MaxErr 495.45 219.43 421.07 4.47 1.95 1.60
R2 -343.752 0.085 -36.824 0.995 0.999 0.999
AvgErr 2485.71 14.70 0.84 0.38 521.01 0.32
20 MaxErr 9195.15 113.31 6.11 1.54 1773.01 1.60
R2 -50175.833 -4.379 0.994 0.999 -2219.865 0.999
AvgErr 2203.24 16.79 146.27 3.87 0.35 1.74
25 MaxErr 8198.79 115.41 1796.95 150.80 1.83 23.93
R2 -24110.224 -2.146 -343.420 0.019 0.999 0.923
AvgErr 21.46 6.90 0.49 1.25 1.48 0.80
30 MaxErr 274.50 45.14 2.86 12.57 11.78 5.44
R2 -3.925 0.372 0.998 0.982 0.979 0.994
 440 Ancuța Maria A.
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al. / Procedia 32 (2019)
Manufacturing 434–441
00 (2018) 000–000 7

Training Data Sets Validation Data Sets o Data points ― Linear Correlation Curve

Predicted Heat Flux Values [W]

1600
30%
R² = 0.9992
Data Set Percentage

25% 1400

20%
1200
15%

10% 1000

5%
800
0%

600
600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Evaluation of Error Distribution Heat Flux Values (FEM analysis) [W]

Fig. 4. Error distribution for training data sets and for validation data sets Fig. 5. Regression analysis for 2-10-30-1 ANN configuration

Also, a post training regression analysis between the network response and corresponding heat flux target values
has been made for all the studied ANN configurations. Table 3 presents the average prediction error, the maximum
error and the R2 correlation coefficient values for each of the implemented ANN architectures, calculated with
relation (3), in which xi represents the heat flux variable calculated with FEM analysis and yi is the ANN predicted
heat flux variable.
1
�∑𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=0(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ∙𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 )� − 𝑛𝑛 ∙ �∑𝑖𝑖=𝑜𝑜 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 � ∙ �∑𝑖𝑖=𝑜𝑜 𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 �
2
R =
��∑𝑛𝑛 2 1 𝑛𝑛 2𝑛𝑛 2 𝑛𝑛 1 2 (3)
𝑖𝑖=0(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) −𝑛𝑛 ∙�∑𝑖𝑖=0 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 � � ∙ �∑𝑖𝑖=0(𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 ) −𝑛𝑛 ∙�∑𝑖𝑖=0 𝑦𝑦𝑖𝑖 � �

Analyzing these short-term prediction performance data, the best ANN architecture was identified as being the
2-10-30-1 network configuration. The training time for this neural network architecture it was 1 h 19 min 13 s. Fig. 4
presents the error distribution for the training data sets (the first four heating season results) and for the short-term
prediction validation data sets (the last three heating season results), while in Fig. 5 the regression analysis results
are presented for the best identified 2-10-30-1 network configuration. In Fig. 5 the blue circles represent heat flux
data points (FEM analysis vs ANN prediction), while the red line represents the linear correlation curve (the almost
45º curve slope proves a good correlation between predicted and calculated values).
The short-term heat flux prediction analysis has been extended to a 20-year long-term prediction study using the
best identified 2-10-30-1 ANN configuration. Fig. 6 presents the predicted total heat losses towards the soil through
the uninsulated slab on ground for each heating season from the extended long-term prediction period:

Fig. 6. Long-time prediction of the slab on ground heat losses

Beside the best identified 2-10-30-1 ANN architecture, 15 ANN configurations presented a maximum error value
less than 5% (between 1.54% ÷ 4.47%) and a mean error value less than 1% (between 0.31% ÷ 0.77%) between the
predicted hourly heat flux values and the result obtained through detailed tridimensional FEM numerical simulation.
 Ancuța Maria Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 32 (2019) 434–441 441
8 A. M. Măgurean et al. / Procedia Manufacturing 00 (2018) 000–000

For these ANN configurations, a very good correlation factor (between 0.995 ÷ 0.999) was achieved, which
indicates a strong relationship between the network response and the corresponding numerically calculated targets.
The performance of the network for the training inputs, as well as on new inputs of which output data will be the
predicted desired data, it means a good generalization of the network. Thus the predicted results are validated.

5. Conclusions

This article presents a useful tool that allows reducing the computation time required for a comprehensive study
of long time-dependent and large size models related to certain categories of buildings, usually corresponding to the
non-residential area, a topic which is currently still less investigated in civil engineering.
Such an instrument may be useful in order to identify the appropriate technical solutions to enable energy savings
of large buildings from a wider physical phenomenological perspective.
The mixed approach of numerical analysis and its follow-up through an application using artificial intelligence
requires less computing time and memory storage needed for this type of analysis. The AI prediction model has been
used to evaluate the heat flux losses through the analyzed slab on ground for a long term period of time.
In this way an appropriate comprehensive method was developed, that makes the detailed study of the large
buildings heat transfer towards the surrounding ground for long periods of time, to be more accessible for civil
engineers and researchers.

Acknowledgements

The results presented in this paper were obtained with the support of the Technical University of Cluj-Napoca
through the research Contract no. 1987/12.07.2017, Internal Competition CICDI-2017.

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