INTRODUCTION

I a i ed a a e ha I i i g hi b kle .
Whe he c a i e e ged i Chi a i Ja a , I a e ea chi g
A e ica d g lic , ki g a f ll - Te Y Chi d e ,
2019 b k he e al heal h i k f ca abi .
B I c ld eadi g ab he i f ciall called SARS-COV-2.
O c e i al a d cial edia, he e e ed b he da . H i al
i he 10- illi - e Chi e e ci f W ha e e e . Vide
T i e h ed e le d i g dead i he ee a d h i al lled i h
b d bag . E ide i l gi a d cie i edic ed he c a i ld
a age he Chi e e egaci ie .
I id-Feb a , he c i i ee ed a e. B b he e d f he h,
he c f e e acki g i he I al , a d he l ckd begi i g.
Mea hile, he U i ed S a e e ed i dea h , a a i gh ei
Sea le.
B ea l Ma ch I ge i el fea ed he U i ed S a e igh face a b eak
ha ld kill illi f A e ica a d e iall de abili e he a i .
I l aded f df fa il , b gh he la N95 a k I c ld d
a he l cal Wal-Ma , a ched he ck a ke l ge.

The , M da , Ma ch 16, I e ial C llege blicl elea ed i -

i fa e ea ch e (h :// .i e ial.ac. k/ edia/i e ial-
c llege/ edici e/ h/ide/gida-fell hi /I e ial-C llege-COVID19-
NPI- delli g-16-03-2020. df) edic i gc a i igh kill a half-
illi B i a d illi A e ica if g e e did ac
i edia el cl e ch l a d b i e e.
W e, he e f eca 1.1 illi A e ica a d 250,000 e le i he
U i ed Ki gd c ld die e e i h h f eff ed ce he
da age. O l l g- e e i f cie ibl il a acci e
a i e ed c ld l e h e g e ea i gf ll , he e ea che
e.
The I e ial C llege e ea che e e j a acade ic . The ked
di ec l i h he W ld Heal h O ga i a i . Thei f eca e i ed
li icia ac E e a d he U i ed S a e a d ed ha beca e a
ea - ld ide l ckd . Ye , i icall , he I e ial C llege e
a ked he begi i g f de a di g f he eali ie f COVID-19. I
la ed he eed f ke ici ab he l ckd a d e e
he c a i i ce.
Wh ?
Whe I ead he e ha M da igh , I iced a cha age 5
h i g he likelih d f dea h i diffe e age a ge . The cha h ed
c a i a e ha 100 i e a likel kill e le e 80 ha
de 50. Ye , 100 i e . Pe le de 30 e e a e l i k.
The i f ai ed e. I k e c a i a e da ge
lde e le, f c e b Ia ed g e le ld al face
ei i k . Af e all, a eall deadl i c ld ha dl a e he g
iddle-aged. A ce ag , he S a i h killed child e a d g
ad l al g i h he elde l .
If d elf hi ki g f Chi a. N ab ha had ha e ed i W ha ,
b ab ha had ha e ed e e he e el e. Sha ghai a d Beiji g a d
he h ge ci ie had a ided ca a he. I ea l Feb a ,
e ide i l gi a ed he Chi e e l ckd had c e la e a e.
I ead, Chi a a al ead e a i el e e i g, e a i g fac ie a d
d i g a a i e . If he i a deadl , h c e he Chi e e
h a ha i had ee i e cl el ha a e el e ee e
f igh e ed?
I ca e back he Page 5 cha agai a d agai . I f d elf a ki g
ela ed e i : Wh a he edia elli g he h ab he h ge
diffe e ce i i k b age?
A d a he c a i eall a deadl a I a d e e e el e belie ed?

Ni e da la e , Ma ch 25, he lead a h f he I e ial C llege e ,

fe Neil Fe g , e i ed ab c a i ac i ee f he
B i i h Pa lia e . Fe g call hi elf a e ide i l gi , h gh he i
 a h icia a d hi d c a e i i he e ical h ic . He a e if i g
e el , i ce he had c ac ed he c a i a eek bef e a d a i
a elf-i ed h e a a i e. (La e , a B i i h e a e ld b eak
he e ha Fe g had i la ed hi i la i ha e e i h a a ied
a he e OKC id; he a f ced e ig i di g ace f a
cie i c c i ee ad i i g he B i i h g e e he e ide ic. B
a he i e hi e a i a e li g a d hi e i f eca i g i ake
hich a e legi a d i e ca e c ical la gel f g e .)
Fe g e i he c i ee ecei ed a e i i he US.
A e ica edia e e f c ed he e e gi g c i i i Ne Y k Ci . B
Bii h e a e e ed ha Fe g had d a a icall cha ged hi
edic i . He aid hi e be e i a e a 20,000 B i ld
die f he i e e i h j eek f a a i e . F he , beca e he
i i fa e da ge he elde l a d e le i h e e e heal h
ble , e ha half f h e 20,000 e le ld babl ha e died
i 2020 i a ca e, he aid.
(h :// . eleg a h.c . k/ e /2020/03/25/ - hi d - a ie -die-
c a i - ld-ha e-died- ea -a a /)
F he ec d i e i j e a eek, I f d elf ed. I ead f
500,000 B i i h dea h , 20,000? Wi h h ea f l ckd ?I
he ab e ce f a acci e effec i e ea e ? Had Fe g j c he
I e ial C llege e i a e b 96 e ce ( 92 e ce , if e ed he
250,000- e dea h e i a e)? Wha fac c ld ha e cha ged ch i
j a fe da ? Wha did he cha ge a ab he acc ac f ei he he
ld he e e i a e?
A d, agai , h had he Ne Y k Ti e a d he A e ica edia
le af e gi i g he ea lie e i a e ch a e i gi e e al
i e ce he e be ?
I e iga i e e e ha e a ld a : If he a he e ,
check i .I he d , e i e e hi g. B e i he edia
ee ed be e i i g a hi g. I ead, j ali ee i g
he el e i h f eca fd . M ll J g-Fa , a edi a he Dail
Bea , ld he 500,000 T i e f ll e ha a a a 7 e ce f
A e ica 23 illi e le ld die
(h :// i e .c / ll j gfa / a /1242508173627531269). The
Ti e e e T i Gab iel edic ed he U i ed S a e a e ec ed
eed e illi e ila , he achi e ha b ea he f e le h ca
hei (h :// i e .c / i gab iel/ a /1242979481524076544?
la g=e ).
Gab iel c e a ab d i face. Ve ila a ec le
achi e . T ai i g h icia a d e i a he a i e he ake
ea . Th , e e if e d dde l b il a illi e ila , h i al
c ld ibl ha e e le he . If a illi e le a ce e e
ab bec e g a el ill ha he eeded e ila , he a cal e
a l igh.
M i i c a a i e iga i e e e k e . I had bee a Ne Y k
Ti e e e f 1999 il 2010, b I did k f he Ti e
a e. E e if I had bee ki g f he , I d b ed he ld be
i ee ed i eff challe ge he a a i e. The e e a g he
leade f ha I had beg hi k f a Tea A cal e, he edia
le ha f ea I c ld f ll de a d ee ed c i ed
ai i g a bleak a ic e f he c a i a ible.
I had e le : T i e . A he i e I l had ab 10,000 f ll e ,b
I a a e i ed acc (i T i e li g , a bl e-check), hich ga e ea
bi f e a c edibili . A d I did ha e he i ak e i i
eal i e. The da af e Fe g e i , Ma ch 26, I ai ed e i
ab hi e i ed e i a e i a e ie f ee .
F be e e, e le iced. The able a El M k, h
be ide bei g he f de f Te la a d S aceX ha a h ge T i e a die ce,
ih e f illi f f ll e . M k a d he e ee ed i a
ee challe gi g Fe g , a d i a ie ed al 5 illi i e.
S dde l I f d elf a e f he fe e le i h a j ali ic
a di g challe gi g he a cal ic e i g ha d i a ed edia le
like he Ti e . O e he e fe da , I i ed T i e ha a
del f he U i e i f Wa hi g ed edic h i ali a i
a d i e i e ca e eed a i g h gel g i i f eca e e
i Ne Y k, he e he ble ee .
Wi hi a fe da , e i f cial i he Whi e H e had beg
ice he ee a d he e i he ai ed, acc di g Ne Y k
Ti e e e Maggie Habe a .
(h :// i e .c / aggie / a /1246805287627079681?la g=e )
N e hele , hi ie a le ha la , a he lea . Th gh la e
Ma ch a d ea l A il c a d ha e ed i , e eciall f fell
edia bl e-check . Pe le i hed f e die f c a i , hich
did eall b he e, e ce he he aid he h ed fa il ld
. The fea c i g f Ne Y k Ci , he e a e be f he
edia li ed, a al able.
B a he da a ed, he fac ha he del e e f dl
e e i a i g he be f e le h ld eed be h i ali ed
i h SARS-COV-2 beca e elf-e ide . De i e e ea ed e i i , he
del f he U i e i f Wa hi g c i ed fail af e
h e e eek , b a dail ba i .
I , he i a ce f ha fail e beca e i c ea i gl b i e
a d a ha df l f he ke ic . Wha had ha e ed i Ne Y k Ci i
Ma ch a ge e ali able he e f he U i ed S a e . H i al
ide Ne Y k e e l e a d f l ghi g ke . W e, i
e ca e he e e h i g d beca e he had fe a ie a
bi a e a ad i ha a ed be he e ide ic i ce he
S a i h Fl a ce bef e.
(h :// .al a e ie c ie .c / /2020/04/10/ egi al/ klah a-
ci -h i al-cl ed-a id-c a i - ead/62038.h l)
E e i Ne Y k, he heal h-ca e e a e e cl e bei g
e . Field h i al b il a a c f e f illi f d lla ee
di a led; e had e e ee a i gle a ie . Na h i al hi
de a ed he ha b , ea chi g i ai f e c a i h . I la e
Ma ch, Ne Y k g e A de C had aid he a e igh eed
140,000 h i al bed a d 40,000 e ila . E e b d e i led
hei i i ,b Id e a e he e i i . I e a e fac
a d da a a d be a d jec i , C aid.
h :// . ac e.c /c a i /2020/03/c - ef e - -
i i - - eed - - -40000- e ila -i- e a e- -fac .h l
I he e d, Ne Y k e e had e ha 4,000 c a i a ie
e ila aki g C fac a d da a a d be a d jec i
ff b ab e f ld.

B id-A il, i a b i e a da e h a a i ga e i
ha he c a i e ide ic i l a g i g be a he e ea
a bad a he ea l edic i , a d ha he l ckd e ea e e e
e eac i .
The fail e f he del h ld ha e ai ed a e e e c cial e i :
e i g a ide he a i e ec ic a d cie al ha he d ca ed, had
he l ckd e e hel ed c l he ead f he c a i a all?
B h gh A il a d Ma , aj edia le e l el failed a k ha
e i . I ead, he f c ed ea l all hei a e i COVID dea h
c , hich e l l b eadil , e e all a i g he al f
60,000 dea h i i iall e i a ed f he 2017-18 ea .
S ill, eal i f a i c i ed d i fe cked a a i cie i c
a e ha e iced, ch a he a Ge a e ea ch i i e
e ed i id-A il ha l ckd had bee b adl ele .
Ye e ha h af e he bega he l ckd c i e.
O l Ala ka ha g e back a e-Ma ch al. E e a e like Ge gia
a d Te a e ai e ic i e a a a d e aile a d ha e
e a ed hei ch l . Ma he a e , i cl di g gia like Ne Y k
a d Illi i , a e e eali g hei le l l . I a ca e he a e
e i i g e le ea a k e e i blic a d hi i g ha he ill
all ch l eae all e e i he fall.
S , e , he c a i e ide ic ha la gel e ded a a edical c i i . B
f , he licie i ha a ed e ai ed ca i al, ec ic, a d
cie al ill e . A d he ba le e i e ch a a k- ea i g,
e i g, c ac aci g, a d ha d if SARS-COV-2 egai e
i he fall a e b i g h e ha e e .
Which i h I ii g .
I a be clea ai he e a e li i ed. I a ai i g he e ide
ac le e e e ca le hi f SARS-COV-2, i i i ial ead i
Chi a i Ja a , he deci i ha he U i ed S a e a d he c ie
ade i Feb a a d Ma ch. F e a le, he he he i e e ged f
f a Chi e e bi l gical e ea ch lab a i a fa ci a i g e i .
E e all e a ha e a de i i e a e.B f a hi g I i e
ld be ec la i .
N ill I e d i e aki g eci c j dg e ab c a i
ea e . F e a le, I i e ab he a i edici e
bei g e ed f COVID, i cl di g h d chl i e. Scie i a d
h icia a e ill e a i i g h e d g i cli ical ial . U il h e ial
a ec le e, e e he d c h e he ca be e if he a e
ki g. F e ee dIk ha igh ki e ha ele .
E e all , I a i e a l ge b k ab SARS-COV-2 (I ll ha e l f
c e i i ). If a d he I d , I ll add e he b ade e i
h gh e e a de a el c ehe i e acc a ake ea
e ea ch a d i e. The c a i , a d he a e e ded i , ill
be g i f h icia a d cie i a d ec i a d hi ia a d
j ali f a ea c e.

I ead f h e b ade ic , I a f c he e c cial e i

ha I ha e ied a e a lea ai e i T i e feed i he la
h , i cl di g:
H le hal i SARS-COV-2? I i e da ge ha he ?
Wh i a i k?
H a e SARS-COV-2 dea h c ded? Wha e i d e ha c di g
lic ai e?
Wha a e he ai a i hich he c a i ha ead? H l g ha
i bee ci c la i g?
H a e le ha e al ead bee i fec ed?
Wh did he ke edic i e del ha lic ake ed he he
ag eed l ckd e i acc a e?
D l ckd l he ead?
Wha i he e ide ce f a d agai l ckd , ie ed a blic heal h
ba i , i h ega d hei ec ic, ed ca i al, a d cie al ha ?
Wha ab h e he ha ?H e e e a e he al ead , a d h
e e e igh he bec e?
Wha ab he e al heal h i k f l ckd ?
I e i i g e le ea ak i blic likel l he ead?

We ca a e e f h e e i e de i i el ha he , b
af e e ha f h f f a ic eff b cie i , he all ha e bee
a lea a l l cked. I ill ide li k he a e a d da a I
efe e ce ca j dge he he he ci g back a e .
Ia c i ed f ll i g he h a d ffe i g he h e a e ,
ha e e he a be. I ill ga c a i f a i , he he i i
ii e ega i e.
F ha ea , I e decided dedica e he cha e di c i g he
be f e ial dea h ha he c a i i a -ca e ce a i . A
ll ee, he be e i a e a be ha 500,000 600,000 A e ica
igh die i he e ea .
Tha be i ch l e ha he i i ial I e ial C llege e i a e, a d
ghl i he a ge f e le h ki g kill e e ea . S ill, i i fa
highe ha e e a e e e ea al ea a d a h ck e
e le.
H e e , he e i a e c e i h h ee c cial ca ea .
Fi , i a e ha e ake NO eff ec he elde l , e eciall
h ei i g h e , ha e de el edici e f c a i ,a d
ha h icia bec e be e a ea i g i . All h ee f h e i a e
clea l g. S a e a e i g ec l g- e ca e facili ie ( e,
like Fl ida, did ea l ). The a i- i al edici e e de i i ha h
de ef cac agai COVID. A d h icia ha e ed a a f
i g e ila agg e i el , eali i g ha d i g ca ac all kill a
c a i a ie .
Sec d, i a e ha e ill ee a ec d a e f dea h : ha he
c a i , like he , ill i e i abl e hi fall a d i e . Tha
ie i he c e a g e ide i l gi a d cie i , a d I
challe ge i (e e h gh a e ide i l gi ha e bee badl g
ab COVID f he la h ee h ). O e c e -a g e c e f
O f dU i e i Ce e f E ide ce Ba ed Medici e, hich a g ed
ha aki g ab l e a e e f ce ai ab ec d a e i
i e, gi e he c e b a ial ce ai ie a d el f he
e ide ce. (h :// .ceb . e /c id-19/c id-19-e ide ic- a e /)
Thi d, a d i a l , he li e dea h g e d e acc f
he fac ha he dea h ill be hea il c ce a ed a g he e ld a d
ick. M e ha half ld likel ha e died i hi eek h i a
ca e, a Neil Fe g aid i hi B i i h e i .
F a ac ical i f ie , h e dea h a e e e able. Thei
i i gi af ci f he c a i , b hei ca e i de l i g
c di i ch a ca ce hea di ea e de e ia. Mea hile, child e
a d g ad l a e a i i al i k f he i .
A he a l ka dea h i c ide life- ea l li l i g
he be f dea h b he life e ec a c f each e h ha died.
Thi ea e e a ee c el, b e all d i i i i el . Wh ld
di ag ee ha he dea h f a 10- ea - ld i ha de acce ha , a , a 88-
ea - ld? The child i l begi i g he life; he a ha al ead had hi .
B he life- ea a da d, he c a i dea h ll a ea e
c a able a i gle ea f e d e dea h i he U i ed S a e . Ab
70,000 e le die f e d e f i id a d he d g e e ea , b
he a e a e age fa ge ha h e h die f c a i , hei
e all life e ec a c i i ila .

S ill, 600,000 dea h i a g e ha ca be bli ked a a . A e e h

ha c i ici ed l ckd , I igh ee be h i g eff e e b
di c i g i e l .
B i i eci el beca e he be a ea da i g ha e
e a e f i b h ac icall , b i i g h i ali a i cl el a d
addi g edical aff ha d-hi egi if ece a , a d e all , b
ef i g a ic agai a e did i Ma ch if dea h begi i e hi fall.
G i gf a d, e e e be he ea e l cked d he U i ed
S a e a d he e f he ld hi i g a NOT ed ce c a i
i fec i dea h e . We ha e e e ed ch a lic i h a
he e i a i , ih i e ch a HIV, hich il effec i e
edici e e i ed killed ea l e e e h c ac ed i .
N , he ea e i i iall ag eed l ckd a a e he c e,
hich i a li e a f a i g e e c a i a ie f
c lla i g heal h-ca e e . B he e a e e i da ge f
c lla i g, l ckd .
N ha ha fac i clea , he l ckd a i ale ha hif ed he ch
e eb l g al f ed ci g c a i dea h a a c a if dea h
f COVID a e he l ki d f dea h cie al da age ha a e .
The c f hi lic hif ha bee e . I le ha h ee h,
l ckd ha e d e i calc lable da age. The eed be lif ed a
a ible. M e i a l , e ag ee ha e ill e e he
e e if c a i dea h i e agai i he fall a d i e le h i al
face he eal i k f c lla e.
The cha ge e ha e al ead ade ec he l e able, a ell
a i di id al eff a cial di a ci g hich a e likel c i ee e
ih g e e a da e ake a la ge a e f dea h le likel .
B e i ill ible. Th e eed be e a ed a d eali ic.

I ge e al, I h e ha ha ead ill b h ea e a d hel

a i f ai f ie d a d eighb h a be ece a il
f igh e ed. A l f ha ha ha e ed e he la c le f h ha
bee f a i g. B I e bee l ck e gh ha e e le ell e ha
T i e feed ha hel ed ake hei li e a li le e a ageable. I h e
hi b kle ca d he a e. I belie e eali ill i , a d ha e ill
e ca e he e l ckd a d e al a a cie . B he ad ha
al ead bee l ge a d ha de ha I e ec ed. The hi be
ea .
O a d.

(O e al e I ha e decided elea e hi b kle i ec i ; i gi

ge he ha al ead ake l ge ha I e ec ed, a d I a i be a
a ageable le g h f a li e ead. I d la ffe he c bi ed
ec i i a i gle c , b h i a e a d eb k.)
 ONE

Ma be he i a e i f all:
H le hal i SARS-COV-2?
Wh d e i kill?
A e he dea h c acc a e a d, if , a e he e- de a ed?

E i a e f he le hali f he c a i ha e a ied idel i ce

Ja a . Ea l Chi e e da a gge ed he i igh ha e a i fec i
fa ali a e a high a 1.4 2 e ce .
A dea h a e i ha a ge c ld ea he c a i igh kill e ha
6 illi A e ica , al h gh e e de he -ca e ce a i e
e le ld be e ed, a d he igh ha e a al i i ha
ld e e he f bei g i fec ed a all.
A e ha e lea ed e ab he i , e i a e f i le hali ha e
falle . Calc la i g fa ali a e i c le , beca e de i e all f
e i g f COVID, e ill d k h a e le ha e bee
i fec ed.
S e e le h a e i fec ed a ha e ild .E e h e
ih e e ee a ei g i g he h i al, he ec e
hei . We ha e a clea ie f he f he icebe g he e i
i fec i ha e i e h i ali a i b a lea i he ea l age f he
e ide ic e ha e g e a he ild, hidde i fec i .
B calc la e he e fa ali a e, e eed k he e i fec i
a e. If 10,000 e le die f 100,000 i fec i , ha ea he i
kill 10 e ce f all he e le i i fec aki g i e , e da ge .
B if 10,000 e le die f 10 illi i fec i , he dea h a e i
ac all 0.1 e ce i ila he .
U f a el , g i g he eal i fec i aei e dif c l . P babl
he be a i h gh a ib d e , hich ea eh a e le
ha e al ead bee i fec ed a d ec e ed e e if he e e e e
h i ali ed e e had . S die i hich a e le i a ci ,
a e, e e c a e e ed a a d ee if he a e c e l
i fec ed ca al hel . Belie e i , ca e f ici al e age.
(I ll a e ab all hi la e , i he ec i a i i ae a d
l ckd .)
F , he c cial i i hi : a d i ed a ib d e f all e
he ld ha e e ea edl h a e e le ha e bee i fec ed
ihc a i ha i e ealed b e f ac i e i fec i . Ma e le
h a e i fec ed i h SARS-COV-2 d e e k i.
S he hidde a f he icebe g i h ge. A d i , cie i ha e
e ea edl ed ced hei e i a e f h da ge he c a i igh
be.
The i a e i a e ca e Ma 20, he he Ce e f
Di ea e C l e ed i be e i a e a ha he i ld kill 0.26
e ce f e le i i fec ed, ab 1 i 400 e le. (The i ld kill
0.4 e ce f h e h de el ed . B ab e f h ee
e le ld ha e a all, he CDC aid.)
(h :// .cdc.g /c a i /2019- c /hc / la i g-
ce a i .h l#b .)
Si ila l , a Ge a d i A il e ed a fa ali a e f 0.37 e ce
(h :// . ech l g e ie .c /2020/04/09/999015/bl d- e - h -
15- f- e le-a e- -i e- -c id-19-i - e- -i -ge a /). A
la ge d i A il i L A gele edic ed a dea h a e i he a ge f
0.15 0.3 e ce .
S e e i a e ha e bee e e l e . O he ha e bee e ha highe
e eciall i egi ha e e ie ced e i d f e e e e hei
heal h ca e e . I Ne Y k Ci , f e a le, he dea h a e a ea
e ha highe , ibl ab e 0.5 e ce h gh Ne Y k a be a
lie , b h beca e i ha c ed dea h agg e i el ( e hi la e )
a d beca e i h i al ee ha e ed e ila a ic la l
agg e i el .
Th he CDC e i a e f dea h i babl he be lace begi .
U i g ha g e al g i h e e al he a e a d die gge he
c a i ha a i fec i fa ali aei he a ge f 0.15 e ce 0.4
e ce .
I he d , SARS-COV-2 likel kill be ee 1 i 250 a d 1 i 650 f
he e le h i i fec . Agai , h gh, e e e h i e ed
ill bec e i fec ed. S e e le d c ac he i , e ha
beca e hei T-cell hich hel he i e e de i adi g
i e a d bac e ia ha e al ead bee i ed b e e he
c a i e . [Se e al he c a i e e i ; he c
e i all ca e i c ld i he e le he i fec .] A ea l Ma
a e i he j al Cell gge ha a a a 60 e ce f e le a
ha e e ee i i g i e e e, h gh all ill ece a il be
i e. (h :// .cell.c /cell/ df/S0092-8674(20)30610-3. df).
The e e ie ce f b eak la ge hi ch a ai c af ca ie a d
c i e li e al h ha e e le d bec e i fec ed. The be
e i a e a e ha he i babl ca i fec e he e be ee 50
70 e ce f e le. F e a le, e F e ch ai c af ca ie , 60
e ce f ail e e i fec ed ( e died a d l f 1,074
i fec ed ail e i ed i e i e ca e). h :// . a al e .c / a al-
e /2020/05/c id-19-ab a d-f e ch-ai c af -ca ie -98- f- he-c e - -
c ed/
Th i a -ca e ce a i if e k e i iga e i ead
ec l e able e le, a c le el checked c a i igh
kill be ee 0.075 a d 0.28 e ce f he U i ed S a e la i
be ee 1 i 360 a d 1 i 1,300 A e ica .
Thi i higher ha he ea al i ea . I e ai all aid
ha e a fa ali a e a g a ic ca e f 1 i 1,000 a d a e all
fa ali a e f a d 1 i 2,000. H e e , i e a a e a idl , a d
i da ge e a ie ea b ea . The c a i a ea fa le
da ge ha he S a i h a ce ag , hich a c l aid
kill 1 i 50 f he e le i i fec ed.
I a ea ec a able i e f e all ali he i e a
e ide ic f 1957 a d 1968, he B i i h e ide ic f he la e 1990 .
(Of c e, he U i ed S a e a d U i ed Ki gd did l h
d f a f h e e ide ic , he ecei ed li le a e i ide he
heal h-ca e e .)
Vie ed a he a : O a e - e ba i , he c a i i ki
ela i el all. B he U i ed S a e i a big c , a la i
le el he e all e ial fa ali be a e e e-ca chi g. The e e e
a -ca e dea h ll f 250,000 900,000 A e ica . The Ce e f
Di ea e C l e i a e a la e i a a ge f j e a half- illi
al c a i dea h , f e a le.

The li e c a i dea h ll i i a . B a g abl e e e

i a e i a e h i d i g a d h l g h e e le igh
ha e li ed if he c a i had killed he .
U f a el , h e ha e ecei ed fa le edia a e i , h gh he
a e c ld be clea e . C a i e hel i gl a ge he e
ld a d ick. A d he he die a f h e e le ha e a h
li e.
J h ld? The edia age f e le killed b he c a i i
ghl 80 82 ld ide. (Media e e e he half a i half f
all e le a e lde a d half ge .)
A fe e a le : a f Ma 28, he edia age f he 32,000 I alia killed
b COVID-19 a 81. M e ha 13,000 e e e 80. A he 5,400 e e
e 90. (h :// .e ice .i .i /e /c a i /b lle i /Re -
COVID-2019_28_ a _2020. df)
I E gla d a d Wale , a f Ma 15, ab 17,000 f he 41,000
c a i dea h cc ed i e le e 85. A he 13,000 cc ed i
e le be ee 75 a d 84.
(h :// . .g . k/ e le la i a dc i /heal ha d cialca
e/c di i a ddi ea e /a icle /c a i c id19 d /2020-03-26)
I Ne Y k, a f Ma 28, al 40 e ce f he 23,700 e ed dea h
cc ed i e le e 80.
(h ://c id19 acke .heal h. .g / ie /NYS-COVID19-
T acke /NYSDOHCOVID-19T acke -Fa ali ie ?
%3Ae bed= e &%3A lba = &%3A ab = )
I Mi e a, he edia age f he 1,000 COVID dea h i al 84.
M e e le e 100 ha e died ha de 50.
(h :// .heal h. a e. . /di ea e /c a i / a /c id eekl 22.
df)
The a e i he a e e e he e. E e el elde l e le a e fa e
likel die f SARS-COV-2 ha a e el e. Tha i e eciall ef
h e li i g i i g h e a d a i ed li i g facili ie . Th e e le
acc f ab 40 50 e ce f all dea h f COVID i he U i ed
S a e . A g e f 43 e ce ha bee idel ed. I babl de a e
he eal al beca e i e a e , i cl di g Ne Y k, i gh e
e ide h die i h i al a e c ed a h i al dea h .
(h :// .f be .c / i e / hea heca /2020/05/26/ i g-h e -
a i ed-li i g-facili ie -0-6- f- he- - - la i -43- f- - -c id-19-
dea h /#1a759cff74cd)

The i ide f he i k he elde l i ha ge ad l a d e eciall

ee age a d child e a e a e e el l i kf SARS-COV-2. I
I al , a al f 17 e le de 30 ha e died f he c a i . I he
U i ed Ki gd , f e le de 15 ha e died. I Ne Y k, 14 de
20 a d 102 de 30.
W ld ide, i i al ce ai ha e e le o er the age of 100 ha
under 30 ha e died f SARS-COV-2. Ma e child e die f i e a
ha c a i ; i he 2019-20 ea , he Ce e f Di ea e C l
ecei ed ab 180 e f edia ic dea h . I ha ecei ed 19 e
fc a i dea h i child e de 15 fa .
Thi f d diffe e ce i i k b age ha bee b i a lea i ce id-
Ma ch, a he I e ial C llege e h ed. I a l ha e g
i ce he , i a beca e i g ided g e e licie i a ae
a d eE ea c ie eedle l e ed a i gh e
e ide he c a i .
B e le ha e idea h la ge he ga igh be, beca e blic
heal h a h i ie a d la ake ha e a el di c ed i h e l . T hide
he eali , a h i ie f e efe he age di ib i fc a i
ca e . F e a le, D . J di h Mal g e , a Wa hi g ae
e ide i l gi , aid Ma 30 (!), We eed ake i clea ha i a
e al i di ea e. She ci ed he g h i ca e i e le de
40.
h :// .ki g5.c /a icle/ e /heal h/c a i / ea le-
e ide i l gi -c ce ed-ab - ike- f-c a i -i - h e- de -
40/281-1845991d-a1f0-4530-932a-cb29ae06be7f)
B a ca e fc a i efe l a ii e e e l h i g
e e ha bee i fec ed. I d e ea ha a e ill bec e ick
ch le ha he he ill be h i ali ed, eed i e i e ca e, die.
Th di c i g he age di ib i f i fec i , hile ech icall
hf l, i e e el i leadi g.
Maj edia le like he Ti e a d Wa hi g P ha e g e he
he a , f c i g e a e i he li e al ha df l f ca e
he e child e g ad l a ha e died f c a i .O
T i e, e e g f he . A Wa hi g P e e ee ed Ma
28, Wh a g da ill be dead b e h? Y ca hie a he
g ce e? Y be f ie d? Y child?
h :// i e .c /ke e le / a /1266000325942685697
W f all, a i ha bec e b i ha ac i e i fec i a e ge e all
ha le kid g ad l , edia le a d blic heal h a h i ie
ha e highligh ed he e ial f e ae -i fec i i a a a d
i e d e ha ca e hea da age e e kill child e . O he
i fec i a e al k ca e ch d e, he fac ha SARS-
COV-2 igh h ld be h cki g. Ye he edia ha ea ed he
ibili a ecede ed a he ha i gi i c e .
A a fa he , I de a d h a e igh be ied. B f
e e hi g e ha e lea ed i he la fe h , he c a i i le
da ge child e ha he , ch le he c h ea kid
i cl di g ca accide , d i g a d child ab e. (I ll di c hi
i e e i a la e b kle he i he ec i ch l a d ch l
e e i g .)
The h cki gl ide age diffe e ial f c a i dea h ha a he
aj c e e ce i ake el c i g a d a ib i g dea h
he i ch e dif c l .
The U i ed S a e a d he c ie c c a i dea h e e el
agg e i el . O Ma ch 24, he Ce e f Di ea e C l i ed e
g ideli e f e i gc a i dea h , a i g e lici l ha he le
f c di g a d elec i f he de l i g ca e f dea h a e e ec ed
e l i COVID19 ( ic) bei g he de l i g ca e e f e ha .
N abl , he CDC did e i ea ii ec a i e f h icia ,
c e , heal h de a e d ha he i had ca ed he dea h.
Sh ld COVID-19 be e ed he dea h ce i ca e l i h a
c ed e ? [N ], COVID-19 h ld be e ed he dea h ce i ca e
f all decede he e he di ea e ca ed is assumed to ha e caused or
contributed to death. [E ha i added.]
h :// .cdc.g / ch /da a/ /c a i /Ale -2-Ne -ICD-c de-
i d ced-f -COVID-19-dea h . df
Ma ae a e ha a e iha ii ec a i e ha died
f he di ea e, a e ha hei ac al ca e f dea h. A he di ec
f he Illi i De a e f P blic Heal h e lai ed i A il, If ee
i h ice a d had al ead bee gi e a fe eek li e, a d he
e e al f d ha e COVID, ha ld be c ed a a COVID dea h.
I ea ech icall e e if died f a clea al e a e ca e, b had
COVID a he a e i e, i ill li ed a a COVID dea h.
h :// eek.c /2020/04/20/id h-di ec -e lai -h -c id-dea h -a e-
cla i ed/
The a alie e e d a dea h f h ice a ie . F e a le,
Wa hi g ae e ed Ma 21 i had i cl ded e e le h had
died f g h i i al f ghl 1,000 c a i dea h .
(h :// .cla kc da .c / e / a hi g -de a e - f-
heal h-cla i e -c id-19-dea h- be /)
F he , ake e he d i a e ial ca e , e a e a ch
da aba e f dea h f e le h ha e died i h h e h had ii e
c a i e e l a d add a e iha ii e e e l hei
c , e e if he e a i i ial di g ha c a i ca ed he
dea h. (h ://j . / ichiga - e -263-c a i -ca e - da - a e-
al- -56884/)

J h a g h d - e dea h a e i he COVID c ? We
ca be e, beca e a e ha e di cl ed he . C l ad i a
e ce i . I e b h dea h a g e le i h COVID-19 a d
dea h f e le h died f COVID-19.
A f J e 2, C l ad e ed 1,474 dea h a g ca e b 1,228
dea h d e COVID-19, a ga f ghl 17 e ce .
h ://c id19.c l ad .g /da a/ca e-da a
(The idel a ched ld e e .i f Web i e e he highe g e;
al , 804 f he dea h a g ca e cc ed i e le e 80, hile 18
cc ed i e le de 40.) If he a e ga a lie a i all , al
20,000 f he dea h ha ha e bee a ib ed he c a i ha e a
a e c ec i i.
Id ea i l he e ha COVID-19 i le hal ha dea h
li ed a COVID-19 i he U i ed S a e a e i e a ela ed he
i . The b bble f dea h i Ne Y k Ci i Ma ch a d A il i
i a g able. R ghl 32,000 e le died i he ci e a eigh - eek
e i d, ab f i e a a a i a al i g. Ab 14,000 f
h e dea h e e de i el COVID- ela ed a d a he 5,000 e e
babl COVID- ela ed.
h :// .cdc.g / / l e /69/ / 6919e5.h
B aj edia le ha e e ea edl ied ake he ca e ha
eh he U i ed S a e ha ha l de c ed c a i dea h .
The fac ha a ig i ca f ac i f dea h al ead li ed a ca ed
c a i a e i fac dea h a g ca e gl gge he i e.

A e e e ei a d l i a el i l ble ble i he c c e
f he c di g f e dea h ha a e clea l ela ed he i a
COVID- ela ed, b beca e he a aj i f e le h die af e
bec i g i fec ed i h c a i a e ld a d ell. I he e ca e , he
di i c i be ee d i g WITH c a i a ed FROM
c a i ca be ea l i ible ake.
De e i i g he ca e f dea h ca be a e ce . C e a d
heal h a h i ie f e e l bala ce a de l i g ill e i h he
e e ha eci call killed e e. S e i e d i g i ea . A
a a e l heal h 55- ea - ld a h die f a hea a ack ca ed b a
cl i hi a e ha died f c a a e di ea e. B ha if he a
ha diabe e , hich ca ca e hea ble ? Sh ld he dea h be
a ib ed diabe e hea di ea e?
O ha if a d i k ch, d i e hi ca i a ee, a d bleed
dea h bef e he ca be e c ed? Hi i edia e ca e f dea h i he
he hage. The accide ca ed he he hage. B e le ld
ag ee he eal ca e f dea h i hi ca e i alc h l ab e.
I h ee a le , a lea , ca e a d effec i clea . B f c agi
ill e e ha ai l kill e le al ead ea dea h f ei de l i g
c di i , i g he eal ca e f dea h a be i ible.
A 2012 Ca adia B adca i g C a i a icle e i a e f
dea h highligh ed hi i e. Ca ada e 8,000 dea h f
i e ae e ea , he e i ale f e ha 70,000 i he U i ed
S a e . B a he a icle ed, Dea h ca be c lica ed. If e e
al ead e e el f agile i h hea l g di ea e i i ed e he edge
iha i fec i , i ha a dea h, a hea dea h a l g dea h?
Which da aba e ge clai i ? h :// .cbc.ca/ e /heal h/ -
dea h - eali -check-1.1127442
C a i a ge e le a he e d f hei li e e e e agg e i el
ha he , he i ei e e e e i . Be ide Neil Fe g
e i i Ma ch, he fac ha a c a i dea h cc i
i g h e a ie i g e ide ce ha a ic i had l eek
h li e. B he i e he c e i gh e , e le a e
e f ail. A 2010 d i he J al f he A e ica Ge ia ic S cie
f d ha half f all e le ad i ed i g h e died i hi e
h f ad i i ( h gh he a e age le g h f a a l ge , beca e
a f ac i f e ide li ed e e al ea af e ad i i ).
h :// li elib a . ile .c /d i/ab /10.1111/j.1532-5415.2010.03005.
Th , e he c e f a ea , he c a i i likel ha e
li le if a i ac he e all be f A e ica h die, e en if the
orst-case estimates for o erall mortalit are correct. If 600,000 e le
die f c a i b he i e e e ei e ed i , b - hi d f
he ld ha e died a a f he ill e e , he e ce ali
f c a i e le h ld ld ha e died d i g ha
ei d ld be 200,000 e le.
B al 6 illi e le die e e ea i he U i ed S a e . Th
200,000 dea h ld e e e a i c ea e i ali f a li le e 3
e ce f he e i e a i . T h d ed h a d e a dea h al e al
ab he a e be f e le h die f alc h l ab e e a -
ea e i d, f ed e e a h ee- ea - e i d.
Ye , c a i kill .
I al e.
 Cha e 1
(Re)- d c

We c e he ec d a e f U e ed T h.
Th ec f c he e de ce c d ed ce ( d ) he
ead f he c a a d he fa e f he de ha Ma ch
f eca a e d e h a . The e e ed c
a ac ca e e a g he he c d a e effec e. I a
ffe a b ef d c f he e a d a c f c d .
B , e bac g d.
I e had a a ge fe ee . Ma be ha e .

O Wed e da , J e 3, I hed ed g Pa 1 f U e ed T h ,
ab c a dea h c . I dec ded b h he b e h gh
A a e f- b h g a f , K d e D ec P b h g. I d e
ce f a A a g a ca ed K d e S g e , he e he c a
b he ece f fe a e . S , a h gh I e U e ed
T h gh a ge e e e he ed a, I g ed A a d be
e h .
Af e a , A a e Me Ka f a d The A a ch C b
a d Be a a d Z h a: Se a Re a hA a . A
h d. A a h d dge he b dg a he e , e ce
e a e ca e he e he ffe ec c ad ce c a beha .
A a ee ag ee h d e he de f a gb a a ab e.
I a ae e A ,ac a e a e ha A ab e e,
e be e e ha d g acce he e d a ,
[ c d g] b ha e a d b ec ab e.
h :// . b ca. g/a c e/ he-ha e- e-a a - e f- b h g-
a - -a-ha e -f - h e- e ac
Ia e h g Pa 1 c d be c de ed a c ac he .
Nea a he da a c e f b hed c e c a e a d f ca
g e e ce . S he I aded Pa 1 he K d e D ec e
Wed e da gh , I g ed I d ee f a e A a he e g.

W g. Whe I chec ed KDP he g I f d he b , h ch had

bee ed a be g I Re e , had bee e ed D af a . The
A a e a ed e:
Y b d e c h g de e . A
a e e ae ffe g b f ae
Please consider removing references to COVID-
19 for this book. [E ha added.]
Ob ,I d ha e a gh e e g efe e ce COVID-19
ab ab COVID-19.
I a h c ed. Be de he c a ed c e f ee
eech, A a had be e ed h ge f he c a c d ,
h ch had f ced a c e c e. I c a a a a - e
h gh, g g a a ca a e, e ha $1 . (I ha e
e e h ghe ce.) U de he c c a ce , I h gh A a had a
ec a b ga e e e ffe c c f he c d .
A ae .
Ic de ed a g he b a a ab e h gh Web e, b A a
ha a h ge ha e f b h he e-a d h ca b a e .A dA a ca
e , , a d de e b fa e ha a e e e. T ad a b he
d e he d eed a h ge he a h e .A a
c d a e c e a a ab e da . I eeded acce A a a d e ce.
I e gf ce A a ha d d bab fa . The c a
e e c c . S , I g ed a g ec d
h . Wha c d A a d , ba he b ? I a ead had. I e
T e , he e c a a a ce c d had ga ed e e
ha 100,000 f e . (O a , ha be a e e 0.2 e ce a
a a K Ka da h a had, b I h ed gh be e gh he a
e.)
M hea fe f e ha e e ea: Oh f c e. I ca be e e . The
ce ed ab e a c ee h f he A a e ec e a .
A be f c e a e e c e aga A a
ce h . S d d a fe he ef , ab G e G ee a d f The
I e ce . G ee a d e ha a h gh he d ed e C d,
b ba gb c a e ech g a a fa e da ge ha ha e e
h ea [U e ed T h ] ed ee .
B e e a ad a ed a e c d g f e d a The Ne
Y T e , he e I had ed f a decade a ed e . The
e ce baf ed a d d hea e ed e. S e a d e c A a
a d e ce h d ha e he cha ce ee he b e a e ha
c aga e e dea f e ec a f eed .
B 1 . ., I a ed. I g ed f I c d ge A a a a e
b he e d f he da , I gh ha e d b e he b e f.

The E M e ed .
Aga .
M a d I ha e e e e e e had a h e ca . Ma be e e e
.B f ed ,I b h a bee ( ha he eed e b h a
bee ). I he e e e ha e hea d f M , he he ch ef
e ec e f Te a a d S aceX a d ha e f ff e
T e . He af a d ea h d, a d he e he c d a a
ca a hc a e. He d e ee ed e bef e, a d e had bee ch
e e ad ca ce ea Ma .
I dM ha had ha e ed. J bef e 2 . ., he e ,a he
ca g be g a ee , Th a e. He f ed
h a ec d ee , T e b ea A a .M e ae g.
M c e a gh A a ce h . The Wa S ee
J a , CNBC, a d e e he Wa h g P h ch Be e
a ce .A d e ea A a g he e age. A 2:59 . ., 65
e af e M ee , I ece ed a e a f K d e D ec
P b h g E ec eC e Re a e g eA a d
b h Pa 1.
Ma be A a d ha e bac ed d a a .Id .B
M h d e ed he ce . (A a d e e had
ba ed U e ed T h e ,b e e ad e. A d
c e ba COVID-19 b . A fa a I ca e , he e
ade a ce g e e h a b g e gh ega h e gh bac .)

The c e he ca e ha gh , af e I a ea ed F Ne a d
O e A e ca Ne a ab he ce h a d he b e . I chec ed
A a a e age a d f d ha e he c e fa h he b
had d a 10,000 d g a c e e ha e e ec d. B
d gh had d 26,000. I b e h #1 he K d e S e. I ha
d e ha 130,000 a e a d eb c e d de.
I he d ,A a ce h a ce a ga e U e ed
T h ab . B h gh I a c , ce h b b g ech g
c a e ag g be .M e e h ge ba ed a e g g
ha e E M ea f he .

Mea h e, he U ed S a e a e.
Th gh ea J e, he dea h f Ge ge F d a ed he e
ace- e a ed de a ce he R d e K g f 1992. Med a
e ed f - e c e age f he e . B da , e e ed
M ea , Ne Y a d he c e . B gh , e ed e.
The a ge a ea a d de a dab e. B I a ed g ,a
ed ha he e c e age ea he ed a c a
h e a a e.
The ea a e.
The e de c a fad g ac f he d. E ea c e had
e e ed h b e . I he U ed S a e , he a e had beg
e e e ha a h ea e Ge g a A 24, Te a g
af e h ch b e. E e he N hea , he ha de -h eg ,
a e e e edg g a d a a e e g .H a e ec g
COVID- ec c a d ead ge g bac he b e f e ec e
ge e a d he d a hea h ca e.
Ne a e a d cab e e e e ed ced h g ca e c
c e e Pe , g ec a e a c e ab e a -
fec d e . The b ge a e ca e Ma , a e e
f c ed a d ea e ch d e ha ed e ch e Ka a a
d ea e, h ch ca ead e hea be d . The Ne Y
T e ed he a , g e ha a d e a c e Ma . I head e
c ed f ca g he e gh be e a ed c a
ca g a baf g d e.
h :// . e .c /2020/05/13/hea h/c a -ch d e -
a aa - .h
h :// . e .c /2020/05/05/ eg / a a a -d ea e-
c a .h
Ne e d ha he d e a ea ed e a e a d h ed e
d h had e e had c a fec . Ne e d ha he
f ca B h Ka a a d ea e c e e ea ed d c ed he .O
Ma 15, he c e e, W h c g e a a e ece
ca g dee f fa e , e a ed ha e a he a e
Ch d e a e e be e affec ed b C d-19 fec .
h :// . c e . g. / a a a -d ea e-c d-19/ - /
A d e e d ha e e e ca e f he a a d e,
ch d e ec e ed c af e e d he - e e
he a . A a Te a ed a c fec d ea ee e da ee
a A , I ge e a , f he e d d e. Wh ch d d
he a f head g J e3 , Dead e ch d e
ed COVID-19 c ed A h a.
h :// . e.c /a c e/ e /hea h/c a / e -
a a - d e-de -ch d e -a -c a /269-ef12525f-
213c-437a-ad9a-094f422c2f99
F h , I had efe ed a c e h g he da ge f C da a c
(a d e e g he a e be f Tea A ca e ). The
Ka a a a c e e e e, f gh e g a e ba ed he h e
b e c e ce. I ca ed he dd e a c , a g a ef a
g ed a ga e.
Ye he e a h ed a he ed a de e a d bad e a he
e de c a ed. Th he he F d e e ded I ag ed he
ed a d ea a f C dd a g.
I a g.
S ce d-J e he be f e e f Sa -COV-2 ha ged
ac he S be . I F da, f e a e, da e e e 15-f d
e a h ee- ee e d f 617 J e 3 e ha 9,500 J e
27. S ce he he ha e e f he .
Ma fac , b h ea a d e g- e a ed, a e d g he e. Re a a
a e e .V a c a d a c g ha e a ed. H e ea he ha
d e e e de a d c ea ed e a ce a c d g, h ch a
he ead he . The F d e a d ga f Me c a
a ha e a ed a e, h gh h e fac ae e ec a e.
Mea h e, e g ha c e ed. S e e e ae e g e
bef e e ee ca e .H a a e e ge e e h
c e f e ec e ge e . The e ha bee a h ge ge e
e , h ch he ed a ca g ca e . B g he d ca e
e e e ha a c ca g ca e ha he a e c
e gh eed h a a a ea ed ca a e . I fac , a
e e fec ed h he c a d e e he ha e ,
e ec a f he a e de 50 a d dece hea h. The f e ha e
e he a a a fe e c gh,
d g hab e f a bad c d f d .
Th he c ea e e e ha fa ed a c ea e
h a a , e e ca e ad , e a e, dea h . E e
dea h f C d a ca e a aged . B f c a
dea h e a g ca e ha he e e he N hea Ma ch
a d A . A d e ha e e e ea h ha he a ha a .
The a a f he e ca e a e e e de 60, h a ea ch
e . A d ce d- aeJ ,h a a ha e dec ed
ha A a, Te a , a d F da he a e ha ed he c ea e.
U f a e , he ed a e a a de ed h e a da a Ma ch.
A d he S be e ha g e a e f e f he a c. We a e
h g a d a fa h a ch , h e c d ae a g
aga . O J 13, Ca f ag e Ga Ne ce aga c ed
ba , g , d e a a e ce, h e f h , a d he e ce .
Ca f a ha ab 40 e e. S ce he e de c bega a
e h ag , he a e ha had ab 9,000 dea h f he , e
a e de 18. Tha c ec : N e e de he age f 18 ha
d ed he a ge A e ca a e f Sa -C -2. Ye Ca f a
ec a d ce e a c ed.
T b g ed a-fed e ee a I ca he e
c ce d e ce .
F , he ed a ha h dde he ea ha a e h e e e
e de c ha a c e fd gf he c a . I Pa 1,
I ffe ed he ea be a d , ba ed he be g e e da a.
A d ce Pa 1 a b hed, e e e d e ha e e e ged. A e
S ed h g e e e he f dea h f Sa -C -2 a 1
10,000 f e e e de 50 c d g h e h ha e ch c
c d .
f ha d ghe e . e/c e a e /53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb7
71/ fec -fa a - a e-c d-19- c h - ech ca - e . df
A d a a J 14, D . R be Red e d, he d ec f he Ce e f
D ea e C , he f dea h ch d e de 18 a 1 1 .
h :// .b c e. g/c d- eb a - e e - a c - be -
ed e d- d/ Ma ed a e g e h da a.

B he ed a he d a e a g ab e e e a .
Beg g Ma ch, e e de a ded c d a d a ded he
b c hea h e e h e ed f he . The fe g e h
e ed faced e e e. A ca Ne Y T e a cef
ea A a head ed, H d S a e Re Ca f S a -a -H e
O de : Wha A e Y Wa g F ?
(h :// . e .c /2020/04/03/ /c a - ae - h - a -
h e.h )
The c e e ded e e a , ch a S ede .
(h :// .c .c /2020/04/28/e e/ ede -c a - c d -
 a eg - / de .h )
Wha e a -b - ced he hf c d a he fac ha
a b c hea h ga a had f decade e ea ed e ec ed he
a a e a e de c . I he a h ee ea , he Ce e
f D ea e C a d he W d Hea h O ga a ha e b hed e
e de c a g a a h ec c ec e da ab ha
d f e a e h .
The CDC b hed g de 2017, h e he WHO e e e ece
a d de a ed. (h :// .cdc.g / / e /66/ / 6601a1.h )
(h ://a . h . / /b ea /ha d e/10665/329438/9789241516839-
e g. df? a=1) D e f ce a d h ca ed he WHO
g de e , e e g ab a d e , c ca a , a d ea - d
e de ce. The a a 91 age , a 125- age a e h he de a
f he ea e e e ed a e he ec e da .
(h ://a . h . / /b ea /ha d e/10665/329439/WHO-WHE-
IHM-GIP-2019.1-e g. df? a=1)
The CDC a d WHO a a d e Sa -C -2, f c e. I d d
e he he e e e . The f c e a e de c . B he
a d he c a a eb h e a e , a d he a e a
fec . S he ec e da he h d a b ad Sa -
C -2. (The c a e ha e e ha ha he a e age a
b e e ha ha e a he WHO e a c a e .)
Wha g ab he a a h i e he d effec e. E e
he he a e ec e da f ha d a h g, a , e a
e e e (a fa c a a c gh g eb ) he
ac edge e e de ce he . The e d e e a e f e
ade he ba ha e e a e acce ab e, fea b e, a d ha e
fe e ce ca .
I he d , Pe e ca be a gh c gh he e b a d d
h c a g. S e he . I ca h . Th he e e d a
ea a a a . (I c e bac a af eb e.
De e he ac f e de ce f he , he ha e bec e e
a b ca a a a f he ed a a d ca ha e
 e e h cha e ge he f c a a a e ha Sa -C -2 a
e a d a da ge d ea e.)
Wha ab c d ?
B h he CDC a d WHO f d e ea ec e d he . The 2017
CDC a e d d e e e de ead ace c g .I
d c ed ch c g a a e a ea ed g e e e, e
e e e, e e e a de c .
Mea h e, he WHO e a h gh gh ed c ce ab he c f
c d , g, a g age a b ea c a c d e, ha
ace ea e a d c e c d affec he ec a d
d c fa ce . I c d a ec e ded ea e
ch a agge g h f , a d e g ce f c ea e. I added
ha ace c e h d be a a e c de ed
e a d a e e e e de c a d a de c ch a S a h -
e b ea ha gh f e e. I he d, he
c a .

Ye he Sa -C -2 a ed f ce E e a d he U ed S a e
Ma ch, b c hea h a h e g ed he ca ad ce. The
a ed a f e ed e ha he ed a a ed d e gh d
a c e g ce .
I a a e f da , d e fc e ha ed a ed d d a
gh a d de c a c f eed had ed a e e e ae
c ea ce a ea W d Wa 2.
A d he c d bega .
 Cha e 2:
L c d , he

I he , c d ca e e e de c.
I he .

U de a d g ha c d ac a a e c c a . Med a e fe
e he e c d , aa e, a d c a d a c g e cha geab .
B b c hea h e e he a e e d ffe e . Sc e e he e
aa e de c be c g e ee ed e ee e ha
fec d ea e. Th e a a ed e e a e e e ece a c ,
b he gh be. (The e h ac a ha he d ea e e ad
be aa ed b a ed. )
A c d a b ade e e, e ha e acc a e de c bed a a
a aa e, c e g a c , a e, e e c . I ca
c de ca ce g b c ga he g e ge e a dc g ch
ace . I a -ca e ce a , ca e e e e d de g
e e e a a h e. I a be e f ced b a a a b de c e
c d a a e, a ce a -e f ced b da a d a eg
e e a ef e e g e g.
I c a , he h a e c a d a c g ge e a efe a
ea e ha g e e e c age b d e e, e gf
h e. B c f g a a de e b c hea h e e
e e e ca d a c g a a be a e c de
a da ea e .
I a .H e a a e. Ma aa e. C d a a e. Safe -a -
h e. S a -a -h e. W ace c e . S agge ed h f .
Te ec g. E e a e . Sch d a . Sch c e.
L c d . M ga .S e . The e f e a
e g, e de ce f he ch ce g e e a ea e de c
ead.
Of a h e ch ce , a c d a e he ef a dd e.
The a e a he ed c e f c a e ,a ea a , beca e
he ee ce a .L e e a, Sa -C -2 a e a
a ed h gh e a e a ge d e f - dd ed a a
a d h eg a e a a e a ce f a -ca ed d e a d
a b e a . The d e ca a a a a fe fee
bef e fa g he g d, h gh he a b e a c e ca e a a f
f ge . F a d c a ca a be a ed h gh f e, a
a ce e e c b ch g c a a ed face .
Kee e e fa e gh a a f each he , a d a h e ec f
a h d be ed ced, f e a ed e e .
I he .
Sc e e e eb c ca be de e e h fa a
e de c ead g. The ca he e d c be , R. I
ea e he be f e ea e c e fec . If R 1,
each fec ed e fec a e age e he e bef e g he
ab a he a g. If R g ea e ha 1, a e de c
g g. If e ha 1, he e de c d g .
A fa ha ad ca ed A d The T d T F e d a e he
c e: 1 bec e 2 bec e 4 bec e 8 bec e 16 bec e 32
e e e he d g Fabe ge ha .
h :// e .c /a d- he - d- -f e d -h -fabe ge- ga c -
ha -e a ed- a /
S a d ffe e ce R ca a e h ge d ffe e ce h c a
e de c ead . Tha e ec a e he ca e f e a e,
h ch ha e h a c c e . (I he d , he a e e e
c c , b h e e e a e fec f a fe da .)
F e a e, f each e fec e e he c e f a e-da
a c c e, a g e fec ead e ha 100 e e
a h. B f each e fec h ee he , he a g e fec
bec e e ha 700 a h.
B R ca cha ge d a a ica a d ic , a d i d e de e d e
he i i e f. T a b a e e ea df ace ace.
Ma fac ca cha ge , b h a a a d h a -c ed. F
e a e, e a e ca d d e h ea he g
gh , h ch h ea ca f Oc be Ma ch.
P a de a he b fac . The h ghe , he be e
cha ce he ha f e e .V e ae
he , . I ge e a , a ha a e he e a be
b e da ge h he he e be e e e.
The g a f a c d ed ce R he a a e.
Idea , a c d d c R be 1, he e de c h ead f
g g. B e e a c d ha e e he g h f a e de c
ed c g R f 3 2, f e a e ca he , b ed c g a
h a .
Whe c a e e he hae a e he c e, ha ha he
ea ea . Pe e be fec ed, a d e d e. B he
d ea e ead e a ge e d. S h a f c e
a , c d gc g ea c e e h d ha e he .
I ag e a he e ca c ee c d .E e e a a h e
f 90 da , a e ha . Ge c ? T bad, a h e. Need
? T bad, a h e. D e de e f d a d ed c e. A e
ca gh de ed a e e ed h e ( , he d a
e f h , h ). Th he ca ead h e e
g he a e h e, a be a a e b d g h ha ed
e a e .E e e h ge e he ec e d e b he
e he c d e d.
E e a, e .
Ob ,e e h a e ed e f he e fec
c d ha h e . Wha f he e he a e a a h
he e h d bef e ed e e? Wha f e e ea e c
a he e d? Wha f he eh e a d a e e e
he c d e ?A e- c de a aB hA a c c
ba e e ha 50 ea ag gge h ha d e g e a
e ca be.
I 1969, e ea che a he ba e de e ed de a e e e ec d
. Wha ade he c de fa c a g a ha he g c
he dd e f he A a c c e , af e he had bee a ed f a
h a c ac f 17 ee aigh .
(h :// . cb . . h.g / c/a c e /PMC2130424/? age=10)
The cc g f 12 e ee a e ec ed,
ce e a 1973 a e ha a he e a ca ed The J a
f H gie e ( da a E ide i g a d I fec i , a a e
cha ge ha ea ca e he a ce f c ea e g
d ea e). If e ca e e A a c ca, ha cha ce d e e e
he ce c d ha e?
I ea , e e e . Beca e ea , he ech g e ab e
ch a ge c d d e e . D e a d b ca fa
de e f d h h a he . U e he a a de e
a e e e, a e f d cha ee g. D c a d
e ha e .S d e a a dc ca e ,
g ad a d ce f ce . A d f c e ce he
a d ea e .
I a de c e , he fe e a e e fa . O de f
d a c e ce- c h e , c d ca e e be c e e,
e e c e.
I de c a c a e he U ed S a e , he b ac e a ha d
c d a e e e h ghe . Eff f ce e e a de a e ega
b e a c. G e ead e fea a d b c e e. B
e e e ec he gh , f b ed , beca e he
eed .
Th A e ca c d f c e ce e f ce e a d e
c gb e e , ch , a ,e e a e e e e e
hea e , a d g e e f ce . Whe he e he e g e ce
g ce e a d Wa -Ma , a e e dec de ea g he h e
h he b e.
H a e e a a dh a g ? The a e de e d
a h c g e e e f ce he e . The c d
Ch a ed H be ce Ja a a fa c e ha e e he
 c e A e ca c d , hE ea c e he dd e.
F e ch a h e ed a a e , a e ag g e ha
$150, he h f ha c c d .
(h :// . he ca .f /20200423/f e ch- ce-ha d- - e -900000- -
c d - e - c d g- -h da -h e- e )
B de a c c a ce , c d ed ce c ac be ee a ge ,
b b a ch a 75 e ce .

S Ma ch, a he Sa -C -2 e de c ed E e a d he U ed
S a e , e de g a d b c hea h e e dg e e c
d fa a d ha d. N a ga he g , b ch , f ce , a ,
e e a a d beache . T d a h g e d be e e ce
f e e dea h, he e e a d.
M fa , he I e a C ege L d e f Ma ch 16 e
b e ea che h ee g h he W d Hea h O ga a
ed c ed e ha 2 A e ca c a dea h h
ed a e ac . I ca ed f a c f ha P fe Ne Fe g , he
e ead a h , e ed e :
[S] e a e eac b a
f c a d a c g f he e e a ,h e
a f ca e a d h eh d aa e f he
fa e be . Th a eed be e e ed
b ch a d e c e
(h :// . e a .ac. / ed a/ e a -c ege/ ed c e/ h/ de/g da-
fe h /I e a -C ege-COVID19-NPI- de g-16-03-2020. df)
(Of c e, P fe Fe g e e ed h e f f h a da e. T
ee af e he e ca e , a he e e U ed K gd had c ed
d , a d hi e Fe g hi e f a i ed be e f-i a i g
af e c ac i g he c a i , he had a affa h a a ed a
h a e ed ac L d ee h .)
The g ac f he I e a C ege e ade Fe g a g ab
he a b c hea h e e he d. Ye he a e he
 h ca g . H PhD a he e ca h c ,ag e
ab he c e f he e e ha a e eh gc e e a h.
B he a d he he I e a C ege e ea che a ea ed be e e a
ha df f ea e ee a d ed c he c a
e de c. T be c ec , he de e d ha e de a d
h he ead b he c e beha a cha ge c d d
e ab d ce. Ye he de a e ha d ba ed a ea da a ab
e he ead c d .
A he c e, he e de a e f ae g a de g ed
a e ea , ba ed he a ha he e h c ea e he
he . The a e a ea c a a ga e f S C , h gh e
c f .
N e h e , Fe g de d ced h gh ec e a e .
L c d c d ed ce c a dea h 95 e ce e f he
c ed a acc e a de e ed. Fe g a d h ea e e
ffe ed d ffe e dea h ec ba ed he e e f he c d
a d be ch a ed f a d e a e he .
The e de a ga e he I e a C ege de a de e ed e e f
ce a a d e ab . I h e e, he e e e he a he a ca
a f ea - de e e he e ha a ed h g ce
c d e e c a e ac he e e U ed S a e a ce a d h he ed
ca e ba 2006 a d 2007 he ea -e a e a d a c a c
he e e f e g.
B f a he c e fh e a , Fe g ea ffe ed h g
e ha a da ed e f he g a f gh e ed a a e f he
aa e E ea c - a e had ed d g he B ac Dea h e e
ce e ea e : Kee a ge a a a d e be afe.

The dea f g de ead c d e de c ff

2006, a The Ne Y T e e ed A :
F ee ea ag , fede a g e e d c ,
R cha d Ha che a d Ca e Meche , e h a
c eag e a a b ge b ba Wa h g
 f a a e e fa a he e d be
ea ed e a a a: e g A e ca a h e
f a d ch he e e he c a
h b a dead a de c.
Whe he e e ed he a g af e , a
e h e c a d a deg ee f d c e b
e f ca
(T be c ea , he T e a a di g D . Ha che a d Meche a d he
f g c d .
h :// . e .c /2020/04/22/ / c / c a -d a c g-
c a .h )
Af e a ca e 2005, he -P e de Ge ge W. B h a ed c e
f e ea ch g e de c . D . Meche , a e a he
De a e f Ve e a Affa , c ec ed h R be G a , a c e
ce a Sa d a Na a Lab a e . F a c e ce ec , G a 14-
ea - d da gh e had c ea ed a de f he a c a d a c g gh
he ead f he . G a b c ea e a a g
c d c d ed ce a e a e de c a h he ca f
10,000 e e b 90 e ce . D . Meche ece ed he e a h f ce
Wa h g a d a a a ed, he T e e.
R be a d La a G a a e beca e he a h a a e
b hed E e gi g I fec i Di ea e , a Ce e f D ea e C
a , ab he a . I e ab , c a ed a h - Ne
Fe g . A d e e gh, h ed he ga a eg e ed.
I he e e g f h he c c d -f -a b he T e , he
c c f he a e he CDC b . I Feb a 2007, he
C.D.C. ade he a ach b ea c a ca ca ed N -Pha ace ca
I e e , NPI f c a U.S. c .
The A b e eJ a da a a e ab h e he e
a Ma a c e:
[La a G a ] a ed e ea ch ha
e ed he c a d a c g a d e f- a
ce be g ed c a he ead f
COVID-19.
 The a , he a ca e f
da gh e , a d R be J. Ga , a e ed Sa d a
Na a Lab a e e ce . Ga a
a g h e h b La a G a ec
de e he a a eg e ha a e e ed da .
(h :// .ab a .c /1450579/ c a -d a c g-b - -
ab - ee - c e ce- ec .h )

The ea a d ffe e .
The 2007 CDC a e a 108 age a d c ded de c f a
be a ed ce a ,f a a f
ad ed c g de b c a .
(h :// ac .cdc.g / e /cdc/11425)
C c a , a c a ed a Pa de c Se e I de ha c ded e
ca eg e . O he e d, Ca eg 1 e e e ed a a ea a
ea , h ch gh 90,000 A e ca . O he h gh e d, a
Ca eg 5 a de c, e he S a h , d a ea 1.8
A e ca .
Ba ed he CDC ca e, Sa -C -2 a ce a h d be c a ed
a Ca eg 2 e de c, ea g ca e be ee 90,000 a d 450,000
dea h . F Ca eg 2 3 e de c , he CDC e e a d g e e
h d c ide ch c e f e ha f ee , a g h
de a e eff ed ce c ac a g ad , ch a e c ag g
e ec g.
The ec f c ga ea e f ce i e e e i ed i
he a e e e d g a Ca eg 5 e de c g f
e e. (The CDC 2017 g da ce, h ch e eded he 2007 a e ,
e de a ed b f a b ad e . C c a , he da ed
g da ce ac ed he Pa de c Se e I de , ae g g b c
hea h f c a a d ca e ee a ee a d a
ea e .)
Ye he T e g ed e he e d c a c e. I e ead
he (B h) ad a ae ded h he e f ca
d a c ga d h d a dca ed he c a e e ca e
d ec f he g a CDC e . The he c a ca e, a d he
a a ac he c f he e.

E e a he CDC a g 2007 a ge he , a ce a d
h ca he e e ea g a de c ed ab he ea e
f ea - d e de ce f c d a d he e e a da
e a e e a ce c e de g.
A g he ca c c f c d a D . D a d He de .
He de , a ec e f he P e de a Meda f F eed , ed he
cce f eff e ad ca e a . I Dece be 2006, He de a d
h ee he e a 11- age a e ca ed D ea e M ga Mea e
he C f Pa de c I e a. Af e g e a c d
ea e , he e, We a he he a a f he ed
ea e a e e de g ca d [a d] c de b e ec da
c a a d ec c ac .
(h :// . ebe b.c /d /10.1089/b .2006.4.366? _ e =Z39.88-
2003& f _ d= %3A d%3Ac ef. g& f _da =c _ b++0 b ed&)
Eff a e de c ch e he ead f he
had a ge fa ed, he a h e. The a ac ed a a e , a e ba ,
a d ch c g f e ha ee a e c e d c e.
The d d e e e f c d , e ab beca e he
e ed h ea e . Nea he e d f he a e , he ade a hea fe
ea:
E e e ce ha h ha c e faced h
e de c he ad e e e e e d be a d
h he ea a e hen the normal social
functioning of the communit is least disrupted.
[E ha added.]
He de a d h c -a h ee a e he c ce .
I 2006, he I e f Med c e a fede a cha e ed - a a g
ha ffe ad ce gh hea h e he d a c fe e ce d c
 b ea . U a e , he e d ced a 47- age e
de g c c a e f a de c e a.
(h :// . a .ed /ca a g/11800/ de g-c -c a e -
f - a de c- e a-a- e e - e )
The e e ea ed d c ed he a f he e ea ch h
e de c ead. A a a f he de he ce a
a f he a , he e a h e. The e e
e de ce a f he e aa ee .
A be , de de h d be e ed a a d dec - a g,
a he ha b e f dec - a g, he e a ed.
U f a e , he e a ea ha he d f a c , he e be
e ef g e e e b c hea h e e ,e e he
ab e ce f e be e .

The e fea ha e e e ce . A d b c hea h e e he e e

ee e he a c, a ca e he ee ed ead
.A g D a d He de c -a h he 2006 a e a D .
Th a I g e b , a fec d ea e ec a a d d ec f he Ce e
f Hea h Sec a J h H U e .
I ge b dd ee cha ge h e c d ch e he e
14 ea . O Ja a 23, 2020, e e a he c a b e H be
ce, he ee ed h fea ha a ge ca e a a ef C V [ he
e c a ] be effec e a d c d ha e b g ega e
c e e ce .
(h :// e .c / _ g e b / a /1220335490374742017)
The , dde , he ade a 180-deg ee .B A 6, he d Sc e c
A e ca ha he e ed c d he U ed S a e h d
be f ed h dec e e ca e , de ead e g a d he
e f ed ca a b he b c.
(h :// . ce ca e ca .c /a c e/ he -ca - e- f - he-
c a - a de c- e c - -bef e- a g- he e- e /)
I e a ed a d ee ed a I g e b a f he a a c ad c
be ee he 2006 a e a d h c e a ce, a d f h he e a ed
he cha ge h e .
He d d e d.
B I ge b a a e h dde cha ge f hea . A The Ne Y
Ti e e ed a A a c e ab he B h e e he
c a , B h ce c d g Ne Fe g a d he
g e e ch ef c e c ad , S Pa c Va a ce had be e ed
he U ed K gd d eed a c d . The , c f ed h
e be ha ec ed h a d be e he ed h a e
a d ha he dea h d c e , he ed a e
a eg . (h :// . e .c /2020/04/23/ d/e e/ -
c a - age- ec e .h )
The ea Ma ch e f e he ed h a he I a a d
Ia agg e e e e d b a ed a e. O Ma ch 9, I a
bega a ha d a a c d , bec g he c c e
e e e .A -e e a a e a ba ed. S e a d g e e
f ce e e h . P ce bega chec g e ha 100,000 e e a da ,
a d h a d e e ed.
(h :// . heg a d a .c / d/2020/ a /18/ a -cha ge - e- ha -
40000- e e- a g- c d -c a )
L he a c a he fac ha I a ha had e e a ece e e e
e de c . I b h he 2014-15 a d 2016-17 ea , -ca ed
e a- e- e e ed e ha 40,000 I a a he e ae f
ea a a e - A e ca . N he I a a ea be
a c a ce b e e a e beca e ha a e e de
a a d h gh e e f a .
(h :// . c e ced ec .c / c e ce/a c e/ /S0269749120320601?
a%3D h b)
A he e de c acce e a ed ac E e, S a beca e he e a
c a ce a c d , F da Ma ch 13. A ha ,
I e a C ege had e b c e ea ed a e ec g
f dea h . B had a ead bee h ca a d
c a e he U ed S a e a d E e.
A I e a C ege c a de ha had a f d ac
b c c ce e e e ha ed hB h a d A e ca
 f c a last eek [e ha added], he F a c a T e e ed
Ma ch 19. Fe g had e e ed a e a e f 500,000 B h dea h
a e - ec e B hg e e ce cc ee a ea a Feb a
27.
(h :// .f .c /c e /16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75)
(h :// . heg a d a .c / d/2020/ a /29/ age- e - e ea -
h - -ad e - eac ed- -c a -c )
The a a e cce f he Ch ee c d e g he e de c
H be ce a a ha e e c aged g e e c de
ge e , a h gh e e ha e bee a ed ab he
acc ac f he h a a a d fa a da a f Ch a.
J a a dh a be g h gh he Ma ch a c f ea .
O he g e e f dec a f ee g e a de a e
ga a ec e e c e f ha ha e ed.
B he e e a a he e . Faced ha f
h d ed f h a d f dea h , he b c hea h e e h
f decade had c e ed a e ce a d ca ched. The f d he
c d e h ac edg g h ec he a f had
e he ead f a ea a be e a . The had d
e hi g e e f he had bee a g f decade ha ha he e e
ab d d a d gh ha e e b e ec da
c e e ce .

S c d ead c c a d ae a e. E e a he e,
a c ea he he he ea e e e e ded a e he c e
he ead e a a dg eh a a cha ce ge ead f a
e ca e e he e de c f e e.N a e . The ed a
chee ed. P ca ed e c d , he cha ged he
d da .
N e e e ed c e fa e ha de ha Ne Y g e A de
C . O Th da , Ma ch 19, he ed ha he d ea
aa e h a e:
 Ne Y , a d Ne Y C a c a,
be a a ed f ce e e a " c ed "
he h e he e ace. "N e f ha
g g ha e ," he a d.
(h :// . bc e .c /hea h/hea h- e / e-b g/2020-03-19-
c a - e - 1163556/ c d1163936)
The e da , C ed a c d .
(h :// . da e .c /c a / -c a -c -
20200320- c 3g f 5 f47c 6 a- .h ) A he : Whe I a
ab he d a c ac e ca a e, h he d a c ac e
ca a e.
He a gh .
Wh ch d d ea d .
 Cha e 3:

L c d ,

T a e.
We d c ed d a e.
A e a d f ce a d ch h , a he U ed S a e b aced f a
ge, he fea he ed a a d f ca a a ab e; he
c d had c e i i e. I Ne Y C , he be f e
h a ed a e hc a e ha ed f 185 Ma ch
15 665 Ma ch 20. E e e e ec ed a eh a a a d
dea h e e c g, Ne Y a d e e he e e e. The e
a h a .
Wh ?
Beca e h a a ag fec , a d dea h ag h a a .
F g fec h Sa -C -2, he a e age e de e
e fe e c gh e da .
(h :// . cb . . h.g / c/a c e /PMC7081172/) M e e
he ec e e a e fa . B e ge c e . W h e e gh da ,
he eed h a a .F a c fe , e e ca e f a da
af e , he ba a d dea h. I a , he f ac f ca e
he he e c a , dea h c e a gh 18 da af e
beg a d 23 da af e fec .
(h :// . he a ce .c / a / a f/a c e/PIIS1473-
3099(20)30243-7/f e )
A he A a a J a -C e a , e de g ag ee ha
da c a ea a h f ha he dd gh ee ag .
I ca a e a ee ef a e bec e fec ed, h
, ge e ed, a d ha e he e e ed.
(h :// .a c.c / e /c a -ge g a-c d-
da hb a d/ LB R BSVSNQDDA Z H/)
I he d , he e e h a ed Ne Y Ma ch 20 had e
g e c bef e Ma ch 10. A d he e e he f he cebe g. The c
had c ed ch M da , Ma ch 16. Of ce a d e e a ed
e d g ha ee . B e e h e e fec ed he 20 h d
h a h a he e d f he h.
N e e h c fec had c ea ed be ee Ma ch 10 h
h
a d 20 , b he e a be ee e f g. H a a had
e 3.6-f d e da . If he c ea ed aga a ha a e e he e
10, he c d ha e a 9,000 a e a da b Ma ch 30 bef e he
c d a c ed .
Th C ec ed ha c a a e d e e e
ed ca ce e Ne Y . O T e da , Ma ch 24, he ec ed Ne
Y d eed 140,000 h a bed a d 40,000 e a f he
h h ee ee a fa h ab e ca a he.
(h :// .c bc.c /2020/03/24/g -c -a - e - - eed -
e a - -he -f -g -f d-d e - - -g d.h ).

The e d da ec ed fa ff. B C a a g
he h . The h a ce e We C e Med c e, he
c g McK e & C a , a d he CDC e e a ad gh .
A d Ma ch 26, he I e f Hea h Me c a d E a a a he
U e f Wa h g e ea ed f eca f a 50 a e .
The IMHE c e h he Ga e F da , h ch ga e $279
a 10- ea -g a 2017. I ae e a de
g ea e e a d a a f he d e ae a dc
hea h be . I de ed f eca dea h , h a a ,
a d e a eed f e e aea d a c e.
IMHE f eca ed c ed a e f g f e, h a ha a d ab e
e ca e . W h h ee ee , he U ed S a e d eed ea
250,000 h a bed f c a a e ,a e a e ha 30,000
e e ca e bed fa e ha e e a a ab e a ae .
C c a , IHME e ea ed de af e a e had beg c d ,
a d he de a ed he h d dc e he e de c
a e . I fac , IHME a ed ha e e a e h ch had e c ed
d dd :
[The f eca a e] ed ca ed he e ac e f
c a d a c g ea e a a e ha ha e
d e a ead h he e ee a d
a e a ce f he e ea e h gh he
e de c.
(h :// .hea hda a. g/ e ea ch-a c e/f eca g-c d-19- ac -
h a -bed-da - c -da - e a -da -a d-dea h )
A g h he a d ea , he de a ed a c ge
h a a af e c d h d. B ea Ma , h a a
a a d fa de 100,000, a d b a e Ma be 30,000, a d.
(h :// .hea hda a. g/ e /defa / e / e / e ea ch_a c e /2020/C
OVID-f eca g-03252020_4. df)

Th f eca ade e e f c d ed ed ce a i i ,
ic a d ce ai . L e he I e a C ege de , he IHME de
a ed he e de c d ead c ed bef e ha d c d
b a d h he eaf e , a R he a a e fe be 1.
O e gh , he IHME de beca e he c c a f eca g f ae
a d fede a g e e .O A 8, he Wa h g P ca ed
A e ca M I e a C a M de . (A c c ca e
f e de g h be e ed f eca ee .)
(h :// . ah g .c /hea h/2020/04/06/a e ca - -
e a -c a - de - - e ed- -e a e -d a d- -
e e - de -ag ee /)
I he 10 da af e he e e ea ed he de , e ea ed e ed
ad f eca f h a a a d e a e. F e a e,
A 5, he e ed IMHE de ec ed ha Ne Y d eed
69,000 h a bed a d a 10,000 e a ha da .
Wha e he ed a a he I e f Hea h Me c a d
E a a ee ed ca e ab e e ce a ha he de had
fa ed c ee .I a fa g ed c he f e b acc a e
ea e f ha a ha e g i ea i e.
O A 5, Ne Y ac a had ab 16,500 e e h a fe e
ha e- a e he be the model claimed ere hospitali ed that
da . Of h e, ab 4,000 a e , 10,000, e e e a .
(h :// . bc e .c /hea h/hea h- e / h - e-d c -a e-
g-a a - e a - - a e - 1179986)
Wh d d he IHME de fa da af e a e ea ed? Wh d d
a d he he de bad ee a e he be f a e h
d be h a ed h he c a ?
The ea d d ec , D . Ch he M a ,dd e e a
f c e .
B he e a
e f he de c c a a fa e ha g h
h a a Ne Y ed ch fa e ha f eca . Af e
he 3.6-f d e be ee Ma ch 15 a d Ma ch 20, e ad
d b ed aga b Ma ch 25, 1,323. The he e e a g h
ab e ded.
O e he e ee , he a ed he a ge f 1,300 1,700 a da ,
bef e beg g a a d dec e. (O e a h a a ac a ea ed
ea e a d dec ed fa e , a a e bega be d cha ged fa
c .)
I he ae ,h a a a e Ma ch e e ea acce e a ed.
The de ed a acc a e e e he e e e, h gh ff a e
ba e.

A a de: e ca b a e he fa e f he de ac f c a ce
h he c d .A e he d, e e acce ed he ea e
a f aeb ece a . B e e , f ce , a d ch c ed. A
a e ea a hed. E e a he c d e ched dee A ,
A e ca a d E ea a ed h e h ch c a .
Ac b a f fea , b c e e, a d a ge e de e
f e hea h-ca e e ee ha e d e bed e ce. Hea ed a
a dc ae aga da he ed. E d e e e ad a ed c ce
e e c e ge he b a g a a . (B d-A , a ad e g
c e a ed Sa a ha Ge had c ea ed a h a f, b ha
dd he ad . h ://adage.c /c ea / / age- a e - -
- a de c- age /2250301)
B d-A , e A e ca c e a e had beg
de a d a e d he c d . B he e ade e d ffe e ce.
Med a e e CNN a d he T e , h ch f ed he
c d , ea ed he e a f ge e e . The e e ga ed e gh
e a e . The g e h c ed d he a e he
ha de a he bigge he a a a g.
Da a f A e b h h effec e he c d e e.
Ac he U ed S a e , d gd ed 25 e ce he ee bef e
Ma ch 20, he fe a he 50 e ce bef e b g S da ,
A 12. Ma a eb ed he a e da , d 80 e ce f
a e e . (h :// .a e.c /c d19/ b )O e a ,
A e ca b d ed a -h d f ea Ma ch d-
A bef e ec e g.
Tha g e a e ha c d cha ch a I a he e he
d a e ha 80 e ce a d a ed e e ge he U ed
K gd . B a c a ab e c e e Ge a a d h ghe ha
a e e gh ha e ed c ed bef e he c d bega .
F he , he a a da a d ca ch he ac f he c d ha d-
h a ea . I Ne Y C , d gb ed a 30 e ce f a,
a a e a ba e 10 e ce . E e h e g e de e a e he
a he c fe . H d ed f h a d f e e ed Ne Y Ma ch
a d A . A de f ce f ce , ed ca aff, a d he e e a
e ,a e e de. The e ee a d h e ed e
e e ee e, a I a f ef e ea ed .
N , he fa e cce f c d ca be b a ed ac f
c a ce.
Wha , he ? The IHME de a d c bad ee a ed
h a a . B he fa e d d e d h ha e . The e e
gb h he a a d he a d . The de ed c ed a h
ea a d a d dec e, b h a e ed .
A d a h gh he de ee a ed h a a , he
de e i a ed he be a d g f dea h . I a e ,
IHME ed c ed be ee 60,000 a d 90,000 A e ca dea h b A g ,
h dea h fa g ha af e a d-A ea . The U ed S a e
c e ha ab 150,000 e ed dea h , a d dea h b h he U ed
S a e a d e e he e d ed .
I B a , Fe g ade a a a e he he ed ced h e ae
f dea h f 500,000 25,000 Ma ch 25. B a ha had 46,000
dea h .
The a de g ed b he d e de g fa ed e e
a .
Wh ?
The e a e ha e e h g d h c d . The fai e f
he de ca be e a a ed f he fai e f c d . Ne
Fe g a d he e de g de g g he de be e ed ha
c d ed, ha he e e he a a e he e de c
a ageab e.
B he de d he fac ha c d fa ed e ec he
e e a .
The c a b ea ha e f ed he a e a e
e e he e he he W ha Ja a , he I a ea Ma ch,
Ne Y a d L d a fe da a e . I a de e a ed a ea, Sa -
C -2 ead e b c f da ee a Ch e e e ea che
e a ed ha he R gh ha e bee c e 3.9 W ha Ja a , a
a e ha f chec ed ea 1 fec d bec e e ha 3,000
a h. (h ://d c .g g e.c / e e a /d/1-
Z 0 XF_0T 8TN B KH4V1LQQX 7A 9 DfCgZDfE/ed # de= d. 3
2)
The e he b c e a c e a a d c a ed a
hd da ed c .A da a c d c de ed, e e f
a e ec ed, he a c e f he . A h gh e e a beg
a e e a d a c a d a ce d g h e d, e e ge c
a d 911 ca a , d e b h b fea a d ea a ead.
I Ne Y , e e ge c f e a a d - e
ef ab 1,700 a da a he beg g f Ma ch e ha 4,000
b he dd e f he h. S e e e a ead had c a he .
O he ee af a d. F he , e e ge c e e a dea
g d c ade he . The a c ea e he f a g
he he h c a a d ed ca aff h ea he h
ca ead h e
Th a e a d beca e c ea f - ed c . A ea a Ma ch
21, a g f h ca he I a a ed a Ne E g a d
J a f Med c e a c e:
We a e ea g ha h a gh be he a
C d-19 ca e , a he a e a d a ed b
fec ed a e , fac a g a
fec ed a e . Pa e ae a ed b
eg a e , h ch a c b e ead g
he d ea e a a b a ce a d e e a d
bec e ec
[Sa -C -2] a c a e ha , b e
c ag . The e ed ca ed a d ce a ed
he c e , he e de ead he .
(h ://ca a . e . g/d /f /10.1056/CAT.20.0080?
fbc d=I AR0 a6 -
_YY Z YQ W V hT8 GBC dLhJGSN34dBaeZJ GP0 f e )
I he d , a c efd e e ab e e e h a a d h
c ea e a a g he . A d h g ca e a c e
fa e ha he e c de a f c d .
A he a e e, c d f ce e e a de. (Ob . Tha
he i f c d .)
U f ae ,c a ead ef c e de, e ec a
h eh d g e a ed a a e a h e , he
d c ed aga e c d e hea . O Ma ch 30, D .
M eR a , he I h ge h ead he W d Hea h O ga a
COVID c a e a d ea e g a , a ed a a WHO e
c fe e ce:
A he e , a f he d, d e
c d , f he a ha ac a
ha e g a c e ha e g
he h eh d a fa e e. I e e e,
a ha bee a e ff he ee a d
hed bac fa .
(h :// . be.c / a ch?
=2 3 14NbM&fea e= .be& =2996, a a ae 50:00.)
[R a h be a ef cb a g fec ed
a e a d aa g he fa e be , b ha a f
a he da , a d a a e ec fU e ed T h .]
A e he d, e ea che a d g e e age c e ha e eached he
a ec c .O A 7, Ch e e e ea che b hed a a e ha
ed a 318 b ea h 1,245 Sa -C -2 fec . The f d ha
80 e ce ace h e a a e . A he 34 e ce cc ed
b c a a ( e b ea cc ed e ha e ace,
c d be aced a a g e e e). A he e e , c d g e
a d e a a , acc ed f e ha 20 e ce f fec c b ed.
Sha g d ace a a SARS-C V-2 fec , he
e ea che e.
(h :// . ed . g/c e /10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058 1)
S a , e a g a ee f ca e f J e 28 h gh J 4, he
Hea h M f Q ebec e ed fe e ha 15 e ce c d be aced
ace , e , ba a d e a a . 35 e ce ee a-
fa a . A he 25 e ce e e f hea h ca e e , a e ,
 ae ,a da a be c d be aced. Pa c a g
ab he Q ebec g e ha he cc ed af e he ce c d
had e ded.
(h :// .cbc.ca/ e /ca ada/ ea /c d-19- ebec- h -a e-
ca e - c ea g-1.5658082)

I he d, he h , c ea g he a f e fa
e be e d h each he a d e a .
E e e, he e e e ab e ha a-fa a a
fc a he e e e e de a d e e h e e e hea h
be ae a d a e he ea e e d e de. The
ae a a e ha ec ed, c d c e he h
fa e be h ha e bee fec ed e e he e a d b g he
h e.
W f a , b ad c d d a ea a e ch d ffe e ce he
ead f he g h e . L g- e ca e fac e a e e
e ab e he c a beca e he a e a e b h ed ca
f ag e a d e c e ge he . Fe e ha 0.5 e ce f A e ca e
g h e fe e ha 1 200 e e. B b h he U ed S a e
a dE e, g h e e de ha e acc ed f 40 50 e ce f
a C d dea h , e e 100,000 a .
(h :// . heg a d a .c / d/2020/ a /16/ac - he- d-
g e - e ea -h c-c d-19- - f-ca e-h e-dea h )
E e d g c d , g h e a d he c g ega e ca e
fac e ca c e. H ec he , he ? Mea e ch a
fe e e g aff e be a d a e , e g he h e ha e
ade a e c ea g e e ,a d c h a g fec ed e de
a he c a b ea .
B he eff e ed ea d a age c d ca d ac
g e e f he c gh e .I he I a , a a c
c d d agged , gh e ee a a ef fe d f
he e e , a A c a ed P e a ce e ed A 26.
(h :// . h .c /c e / e /Pe fec - -L ba d - -
d a e- -e -f - d-569961341.h ) The a c ha c d
f e a e e a a e ca g aff ee a d ea g e de
h ca e, a ha e ed S a .
(h :// . . g/ ec /c a - e-
da e /2020/03/24/820711855/ a h- a - d -dead-b d e -a d-
e -c e e -aba d ed- -ca e-h e)
The fac ha c d d e he g h e a be e ea
ha dea h g g af e he beg c a he f eca f
IHME a d he . The U ed K gd , h ch ha had e dea h e -
ca a ha a he b g c , ed a c d ea a c a
Ia Ma ch 23. Dea h ea ed A 10 a ab 1100 a da , b
e a ed a d 630 a da a f ee a e . A d e ha 16,000
f he dea h cc ed gh e .
S h he e de c, he da a a e c ea : he e a be f
e e fec ed h Sa -C -2 e e e a he be f e e
h d e ha hich e e a e i fec ed. O he gh ea d
h a b ea b d dea h dec ea e.

A A 15 a e f he R be K ch I e, Ge a e ae f
he Ce e f D ea e C , ffe a gh d ffe e e ec e
he e.
I he a e , e ea che he e ac ed he be f fec Ge a
f e ha h . The f d ha he ead f he ea ed a
he beg g f Ma ch. A ha each e e fec ed 3 he
a R f 3, h g h c ag Sa -C -2 ca a a be. O e
he e h ee ee he a a e fe a d 1.
(h :// . .de/DE/C e /I fe /E dB /A ch /2020/A gabe /17
_20_SARS-C V2_ ab. df?__b b= b ca F e)
Ye Ge a ed a ha d c d ae Ma ch 23, ee
af e I a .
Wha ha e ed? S he Ge a e e 200 e f he
he I a a b de . Re ab he b ge g b ea Ia
a ae ed Ge a a e he a ca d a c g
ea e a d ed ce he ead f he bef e he da ag g a c
ha c e h he c de a a d fa c d .
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dd e ec e ab e a , he e a ed. Af e
Ma ch 18 he ead e de e e a d e a e a
c ea g ee g b ea gh e a dh a .
S , Ge a ade c a g b ea gh e a .A d
d h a f ac f he gh e dea h e a dea h
B a ,Ia , S a .
(h :// . heg a d a .c / d/2020/ /28/c d-19- - f-dea h-
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Ye e e de ce ha c d e e effec e ca e af e A e ca
ae a dE ea c e f ed he . De a a he E ea
c e d c d , e e g ch A a d e b ea
Ma . M e ha a h ae, J e 10, he Da h a a hea h
a h e ed ha he e g e f ceab e cha ge .
S e a d a d he E ea c e ed a e d.
(h :// . e e .c /a c e/ -hea h-c a -de a /de a -
ee - - e- -c d-19-ca e -af e -f he -ea g- f- c d -
dUSKBN23H1DU)
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A 24, ed b Ge g a. The dec ed ed c ab e ed a h e a.
The A a c aga e fa ca ed he dec Ge g a
E e e I H a Sac ce.
Ye he U ed S a e a e c a ca e Ma ea
J e. O Ma 20, Ma K a c, a e a eg a J.P. M ga ( e
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a da a. He c c ded ha he had ac a ead e
he U ed S a e af e c d e ded.
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Ca f a F da. H a a f ed. I A a, he ae
 ee a a e, h a a e ha ed f gh 1,000
J e 1 3,500 J 13. I Te a , he e bega a e b a e e
ha e , f 2,000 J e 11 a 11,000 J 22. F da a a
a e d, hh a a gf gh 2,000 a
9,000.
Dea h a ged a h ee a e , h gh h a ed c ab e ag. (Dea h
e g c beca e he c e a f c g dea h a C d-
e a ed a e e e e e b beca e e dea h a e e ed a
ed a e h e he a e c ed f ee e e h .) B
a c , h gh, h a a a d e ec a dea h ha e cc ed a a
fa e e e ha he N hea Ma ch.
Se e a d ffe e a d a bee a a f he S be e ha e bee
ffe ed c d g he hea e fa c d g, g e e
dec d g ec he e e beca e he he a e a
,a d b e e e a f ca e f Me c . Tha
c f ed ea ha ed ed a e f g ha he e d f
c d ha e bee e b e f he e fec e e
h gh he e bega be ee e a d e gh ee af e he c d
e ded.
E e e a , he ed a ha a ge fa ed e ha he
S be i ei h iai ai i e.A a, F da, a d Te a ha e
a ee b g d h a a a e J . The d g
A a, he e ca e ea ed . Be ee J 13 a d A g 3,
h a a fe e 2,000 a d fa 50 e ce . I
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9,000 b A g 3, a d fa 20 e ce . I a h ee a e , h a
e e e ed, b e faced e a d he e a a f ca e e he
C d he a e ece ed a ea ed affec ed.
F he , a h ee a e , he d h a a ca e de i e he fac
he a e did ei e ide ead c d , h gh he d d a e
e he ead f he a d ed ce he a
h a .A a c ed g a d ba , f e a e, h e F da c ed
ba a d Te a ed e ec e ge e . (Ne he A a F da
a da ed a , e he , a h gh Te a e ed he c e .)
Ab 180 ea ag , a B h e de g a d a c a a ed
W a Fa e a ed da a f a a d he e de c a d
c c ded ha a e de c , dea h e d b h i e a d fa a
gh e ca a e ha e a be c e a g a
f ed b a c ef ed b a ded ea , h a ha d a d
a g a he he de.
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e ha a d a b d ee a e a ch a
( a )h a e e he a d he g ad a g h he
be f e e h ha e bee fec ed b a d ec e ed f he
a d ca ge a . F he , Fa ed ha e de c ge e a
e he e ab e a d ha de : The a de . A a
e , ea e ae f a a be h ge e a ed.
(h :// . c e ced ec .c / c e ce/a c e/ /S2468042718300101)
(h :// .ceb . e /c d-19/c d-19- a -fa - a - - f- he-
a de c/#: : e =Fa %20 h ed%20 ha %20e de c %20 e, a e
%20 %20 he%20d a d%20 e.)
The ha e f he h a a c e A ac d Fa a
be e a be c e ha ded ea a d a ha d . L c d
,a e he d d a fa be e b f ed c g he c e f he
e de c he e ha ef c e a .

A d de e e f c d ch h ee he c e:
S ede , Ne Zea a d, a d Ja a .
S ede ha a ac ed a h ge a fa e a he a We e
E ea c ef e c d .A g a ce, S ede a ea
de e de ce f b h -a da - c d e . Pe -ca a dea h
c a a e he e a e e ha B a I a , h gh h ghe ha
Ge a he N d c c e.
I fac , h gh, S ede h gh dea h a e e ed e a e e b
he fac ha he c dd fa ec gh e b e
ca e ac a d c aged h c a f ffe g ca e he e e e
e de . I a J e a c e head e, C a I Ta g a H gh T
S ede E de . Fa e B a e he G e e , The Wa S ee
J a de a ed d b g ca e h ch de a e had bee ef ed
h a a . (h :// . .c /a c e /c a - - a g-a-
h gh- - - ede -e de -fa e -b a e- he-g e e -
11592479430)
A a e , S ede c a dea h e e e e e de . A
- h d f dea h cc ed e e 80 e,a da 90 e ce
e e 70 e . The S ed h g e e ha ac edged ha
fa e ec g h e a a h ge a d e e ab e e .
O e a , he c e f he e de c S ede ha e e a ac ed ha
fc e eIa a dS a a b g ea e, f ed b a
dec e. The e d gge c d a e e e a , a d ha ec g
g h e a e fa e d ffe e ce.

O he he ha d, he e ec - e e e de ce fa f
c d c e f Ne Zea a d, h ch c ed d e ha d a d
e ea , a d a ea ha e a ge e a ed he c a
e .B e Ne f d a d, a Ca ad a ce ha
a e Ne Zea a d a e ce a ca e, a gh a ed a d
a ed a d ha a a e g ba c e ce a d ca ea
h b de .
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c d c he c a ,a g a he a e g e f ce
g- e b de aa e a d agg e e ac a e ca e;
he he he da ge f he f ch e a e e
ca ha c e c. A d e e h e a ea , a ea a f he e
a ead a c e ca e , a Ha a h ch ece
a ea ed ha e c ed he effec e ea g.
If Ne Zea a d ffe he ge ca e f c d , Ja a ffe he
e. Ja a h d ha e bee g d e f he e de c. I ha e
f he d de a , e f a ge c e , hea e a ce
a a ,a dc ea Ch a. I ef a ce a a g
he -fa ed Dia d P i ce c e h Feb a gge ed
a h e ac ed ba c fec c a a e e . Hea h f c a a d
e e e ed ca fe a ed b a d h f ec e
gea , he T e e ed Feb. 22.
(h :// . e .c /2020/02/22/ d/a a/c a - a a -c e-
h .h )
A d Ja a e e ed a f a a c d , ead A
g a a a a e f e e ge c ha a ed a fe ee
a dc ed f a ge a e c .A B be g Ne e
Ma :
N e c ee aced e de
e e , a d b e e f e a a
ha d e e a ed e . N h gh- ech a ha
ac ed e e e e e e de ed. The
c d e ha e a ce e f d ea e c .
A d e e a a e e e h ed e , e ,
e , Ja a ha e ed 0.2% f a --
e f he e ae a g de e ed c e.
Ye Ja a ha had a a b a e ea e h Sa -C -2. I ha
e ed ab 250 ca e e e e, e e fe e ha Ne Zea a d,
a d 8 dea h e ab 1 e ce fB a a e.
Wh ? N e ea . Ma Ja a e e ea a b c,
e ec a f he ha e fe e c gh, a h gh a g fa f
e a.A h e a d c aged e ef ga he g c d,
c ed ace e ba , a d a gc e he h ee C a eg .
(h :// . c e ce ag. g/ e /2020/05/ a a -e d - -c d-19- a e-
e e ge c ? _ca a g = e _da _2020-05-
26&e _ d=687438071&e _c d=3340566)
If h e e a a ee a f g, beca e he a e. B e ca
be e c d ae he ea f Ja a cce . Ye A e ca
b c hea h e e ha e f he a ig ed Ja a a d
c ed e a S ede , a he ha d g he ha d f
ga g h he c ch ce a d a a e cce e .
O e a : ce c a ha e ece b hed e e a a e
g h ha c d a ed h d ed f h a d e e
f e .N ea , he e a e a e
a he a ca de c ea ed e ca e b he e a e
e de g h e f eca f h ag ed e e g.
A d he e de a e e e e e e , beca e he a e e e g
ed c he f eb ead de c b g a a e a e a ha d d a e
ace a d h ca be e e fa e.
F e a e, J e, I e a C ege e ea che ( e , aga ) a
a e ca g ha c d gh ha e a ed i i f e
E e. Be d he fac ha he e ea che ed a e a e f he
f dea h fa h ghe ha he c e be e a e , he ed a 10
E ea c e . The f d ha c d , h e e a d he e e
he e e e ed, had ed a 10.
(h :// . a e.c /a c e / 41586-020-2405-7)
B he i c ded S ede a a c d c .
Wh ch e a ade he e ac he e f he e he
e ded. Af e a , f S ede had he a e e a e e he e e e, h
ca a e h c d ade a d ffe e ce?
C de ed a h e, he e de ce a be gge ha d c d a
e e a he ge e a ead f he c a . Af e a , f g
h f c d , he e de c I a , S a , a d Ne Y d d b
.
E e ha ca e e , a S ede h .W h h c d ,
e ha d-h c e a d eg a e e a each he d .
E e a , he d cc he a e e ha e a ead bee
fec ed a d ec e ed a d de e ed a b d e ha he ca
ge e f ee h gh he a .
B he deba e e ha e ce age f he a be fec ed
bef e he d eached b h h gh ech ca a d b ec
a f he de g ce a e ha ha e e da ag g a ead .
S be ef f a e .
Wha c d e ee f ge a ge e a g ad a d
a e e d ffe e ce, e ec a f a h e a ea e ed
he e de a d c a Sa -C -2. Wha a e b ea g e ha ca
ca e h a e , h e ec g he e ab e. Ge e a c d
d e he . A d beca e f he fea he e a d he eade h
a e he e e ea d e e , he a e a d ac f
f c g h e eed f ec a he be e.
E e he WHO ee ha e ec g ed he f f c d .I a
ece e e h he B h e a e The Te eg a h, D . Ma a Va
Ke h e, a eade f he ga a c a e e ea ,
d c aged c e f e g c d . The a e a b , hee
f ce e h e e e c a a d ec c c e e ce , he a d.
(h :// . e eg a h.c . /g ba -hea h/ c e ce-a d-d ea e/e c e-
-d ea e-de ec e- a -aga - e - a a /)
S eE ea eade ha e b c ad ed c d e ea a e.
I J , Jea Ca e , he F e ch e e , a d he c d
e e aga ea c d e he e d d a Ma ch, beca e e e
ea ed ha he ec c a d h a c e e ce f a a
c d a ed a .
(h :// .f a ce24.c /e /20200708-f a ce- e- - a- c d -
-ca e- f-c d-19- ge)

Ye , he ec ca dh a c e e ce . I h gh I d ea ab
h e h ec , b I ha e b he ed, beca e he ae e f-
e de . M e ha 50 A e ca ha e ed f e e ; he
U ed S a e ec ha b 1/3 he ec d a e a
a a ed ba , he ha e d e e ec ded.
The da age g e fa be d ba acc . S ce Ma ch, d g e d e
dea h ha e ed f Ne Je e B hC b a; de ha e
a ed a b g A e ca c e . (We d e ac h ch,
beca e a h gh e b e e c c a dea h ea - e, e
a fa e a e he ca e f dea h.) M f e ec e
ge e ha e bee ed d de, ead g d e f
 a e ffe g f ch c a , fa g ,a d he a e , a d
e e dea h he ca e f e e eed g hea ge ca ce ca e.
(h :// .da a .c . / e /a c e-8396253/UK- a e -face-
TWO-YEAR- a -e ec e- ge -NHS-bac g- e -h -650-000.h )
(h :// .c / e /a -28-c a - da e - - e )
H d ed f f ch d e d de ha e bee de ed he cha ce
ea a d a a ch . A e a d de e ae a g; ca
ed a e e d a d b c e f- e ha he ha e g e
de f h.
(h :// . ah g .c /hea h/2020/05/04/ e a -hea h-
c a /)
The c d ha e hed a f (e ce ech g a d c a ed a
c a e , h ch a e e g ec d )e . Wh ch gh
a e f e had c e g e de ce he ed.
O ed .
S he ca b e e be f Tea A ca e f e e ed c d
e e ha de c d , fac , a f e d d d e gh da age he
g gh d ea e. E ec a ce h a e e he
ha de -h S be a e a e beg g e . B he e a e.
The e e a he dec A g. 2 b he A a a ce f
Vc a e a e a d d ac a c d Me b e, a c
h5 e e, h .
L c d ha e fa ed a bad a he e e a ed he d, f
ec e he ea h ee e e he ca ee ed c g. B he
h e c ha e ea ed h gf he a f h.

E perience has sho n that communities faced ith epidemics or other

adverse events respond best and ith the least an iet hen the normal
social functioning of the communit is least disrupted.
Th e d a ea e a he ee 2006. We ha e f g e he
ce a ead h ea .
We ca aff d a e ha a e aga .