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Introduction
Page 63 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School
M.C. MARTIN, J.G. CAÑAFRANCA AND M.E. ORTIZ
price axis, the prices also move along a time Existing patterns in the dynamics of
axis with perfect market precision. Greenbalt local stock markets have been the topic of
also discovered that markets tend to reverse research works conducted in other countries.
on a Fibonacci number, on a Lucas number, or Some of these studies focused on the trends
over the course of a pattern, a combination of and patterns of other countries so as to achieve
the two. Understanding Fibonacci and Lucas outcomes similar to local contexts. Certain
symmetries as a key underlying structure of studies in Asia revealed that technical trading
financial markets gives one a huge edge in rules have a predictive power for changes in
trading and forecasting. some Asian stock market indices; such
observation is consistent with the reason that
Soeini, Niroomand, and Parizi (2012) these markets are or were, during the sample
used the Golden ratio and Fibonacci numbers period, in format ion ally in efficient
in their research paper as a suitable solution (Bessembinder & Chan, 1995). However, the
for forecasting the stock market. This series authors just cited observed that there are
and its ratios showed to have a beneficial alternate explanations, so they conducted
effect by ensuring on-time correct forecasts additional tests to shed light on them. They
that can lead to a considerable income found that there is a substantial cross-market
increase. In most cases, trends answer to the correlation in the signals emitted by technical
markets. Moreover, based on the capital rules, and they documented that the buy-and-
market, Fibonacci series provide accurate sell signals emitted by the technical rules in
predictions and are assumed as the complete the U.S. Market contains forecast power for
form of Elliot’s theory. returns in the Asian markets. This type of
commonality is consistent with the reason that
Mark Deaton (2008) in one of his the technical rules identify periods when
articles in the Fibonacci Genius, mentioned that equilibrium expected returns deviate from
the Fibonacci ratios are one of the most unconditional means.
commonly used techniques for the technical
A study conducted in China by Chen,
analysis of financial markets. Fibonacci
Huang, and Lai (2009) investigated the
retracements provide valuable insights and
triggers as to where a high-probability change profitability of technical analysis among eight
will happen. Fibonacci extension is less Asian stock markets from 1975 to 2006. The
common but powerful when correctly findings revealed that when nonsynchronous
applied. Used as a part of money-management trading bias and transaction costs are ignored,
strategy and as a profit-target projection tool, the best strategies in their sample are offered
Fibonacci extensions help determine where by short-term moving averages rules.
price will potentially stall or change direction. Likewise, when a one-day lag scheme is
And when used in combination, these two sets implemented to account for nonsynchronous
of ratio provide tradable indicators of trading bias, changes occur in the optimal
opportunity. trading rules, and there is also a sharp decline
in trading profits. Another finding is that
when transaction costs are taken into account,
the most profitable rules switch to those that change develops over time. Fluctuations in the
are based on long-run moving averages; at the stock market indicate the direction of the
same time, there is a substantial decline in stock’s value. Doing a trend analysis provides
trading profits. As a result, both the reality a powerful tool for developing an open mind,
check and the superior predictive ability test thus, avoiding prejudices. Among the tools in
reject the existence of economically profitable technical analysis, the Fibonacci Analysis was
rules in all of the Asian stock exchanges. These used in the study. The Fibonacci ratios were
results clearly show that economic profits are applied to the data chart to forecast and project
unlikely to be earned from the use of technical price targets. In this study, only the standard
analysis within these particular markets. levels of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8%,
78.6%, and 100% were used.
In the Philippines, research activities
pertaining to stock market were only limited to Since Fibonacci Analysis is subjective
the efficiency of the stock market and the in nature, the application of the ratios on the
influence of certain industry sectors on the risk charts was on the shadows of a candle rather
behavior in the Philippine Stock Exchange. than on the body so as to include the extremes
of market sentiments. This is followed by the
Method evaluation of support and resistance lines or
areas of the Fibonacci Lines formed in the
charts. Fibonacci Retracements and Fibonacci
Setting
Fan Lines were then used to understand the
risks and opportunities in the real-market
A comprehensive data collection of
monthly price activities from records available situation. Both are effective tools to identify
support and resistance levels, stop and price
between 2011 and 2012 was done during the
target levels, and entries and exits into the
period June 2012 to January 2013.
market.
Data Collection
Fibonacci Retracement
Data on stock prices of the Unibank,
which is one of the most active stocks listed,
Fibonacci tools work best when the
were obtained from the Philippine Stock
market is trending. The trend of the stock
Exchange.
price chart selected was first identified.
Fibonacci Retracements are the ratios used to
Processing and Data Analysis
identify potential reversal levels. Fibonacci
retracement is done by taking two extreme
A systematic review of research was
points, a peak and a trough, on a stock chart
done to reduce the bias that can occur in other
and dividing the vertical distance by the key
approaches. Relevant published and
Fibonacci ratios. Horizontal lines are drawn on
unpublished evidence regarding the analysis of
the levels to identify possible support and
trends in foreign stock market were studied.
resistance levels. Support level refers to the
From the collected data, trend analysis was
level at which many buyers tend to enter the
used to determine how a potential driver of
Page 65 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School
M.C. MARTIN, J.G. CAÑAFRANCA AND M.E. ORTIZ
stock while resistance level refers to the level at support and resistance trend lines based on
which the stock finds it hard to break through it time and price.
and may be lower in the next term. The most
popular retracements among the standard To start, one has to determine where to
levels are 38.2% and 61.8%. Many traders put the anchors in the selected charts. An
consider these retracements to be the best since experienced analyst puts the anchors at the
they give the traders a better price in entering lowest point and the highest point on the chart.
their trade in the market, thus, yielding a larger As this can also depend on one’s preference,
profit. this part is considered subjective. Based on the
Fibonacci ratios 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2%,
In this tool, stocks that show trending there will be three diagonal lines formed as the
prices will often pull back or retrace a two anchors are connected. Once the lines are
percentage of the previous move before drawn, the support and resistance levels are
reversing. The trend of the stock price chart created. These lines measure where prices may
chosen should be identified first. Prices tend to reverse and likewise forecast the limits of
go up, down, or even sideways. Determining trend.
the trend on whether it gives an upward trend
or a downward trend would be the pattern on As with any other Fibonacci tools,
drawing the Fibonacci retracement lines. From using Fibonacci Fans with other technical
these lines, reversal points will be located. market analyses would be a great support in
After looking intently into where the stock arriving at better analyses and interpretations in
moves, which should be indirectly proportional evaluating stocks. Alex Douglas (2001)
with its trend, retracement on only part of the mentioned in his research that numbers from
move is done before the movement continues the Fibonacci sequence are also often used as
to the desired direction. The retracement the parameters for calculating various technical
levels on the chart are then plotted to see indicators like the multiple moving averages or
existing signs of reversals by applying the period moving averages. Yet, Fibonacci is not a
Fibonacci Ratios. These levels are used as the stand-alone technique. While many traders
support or resistance areas or lines. Marked consider this method as very helpful, it is also
areas on the chart, from which there seems to somehow considered basic, and so another
be existing reversals, are evaluated and technique must be used for another objective
interpreted. like price projection. Prices in financial
markets are, to some point, predictable from
Fibonacci Fans their prior price behavior. There is a
proposition that when the market changes
To understand and analyse the direction after a period of trending prices, a
movements of prices in the stock market, the magnitude and duration of the next trend is not
Fibonacci Fans was used alongside the random but depends on the magnitude and
Fibonacci Retracements. Fibonacci Fans refers duration of the previous trend. A research
to a charting technique that makes use of paper in London by Batchelor and Ramyar
diagonal lines which are supported by the (2006) tested the mentioned proposition on the
standard level Fibonacci ratios to help construct behavior of the stock market. Using the Dow
Table 4.1 Retracement point for data in Figure 3 Table 4.2 Retracement point for data in Figure 3
Retracement Retracement
A Price Fib. Level B Price Fib. Level
Point Point
Low 45.80 0.0% 45.80 High 59.50 0.0% 59.50
23.6% 48.90
38.2% 50.82 23.6% 56.27
50.0% 52.38 38.2% 54.27
61.8% 53.93 50.0% 52.65
78.6% 56.14 61.8% 31.03
High 58.95 100.0% 58.95 78.6% 48.73
Low 45.80 100.0% 45.80
Page 67 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School
M.C. MARTIN, J.G. CAÑAFRANCA AND M.E. ORTIZ
B1 [51.89, 55.15]
Mean Value: 54.43
B6 [51.80, 54.40]
Mean Value: 53.19
Figure 3. Price dynamics of the Unibank from January 2011 to January 2012
50% level. As the graph reversed on the 100% was created starting from the point of the 50%
level, it was slow and marked by small reversals retracement level.
again but this time going beyond the initial The next section presents the analysis of
peak. the data charts using the Fibonacci ratio for
Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Fan
From Figure 4, the price continued Lines.
playing only on the upper area of the 50%
retracement level. After three weeks, a major Within the chosen swing low and swing
turnover happened on the 50% level, which high, the 23.6% fan line already demonstrated
seemed to go back to the rate as the previous a support level as shown in Figure 5. Even the
market speed. Thus, another good entry point 23.6% retracement ratio served as a support in
the market as it rallied through the month of
Table 4.3 Retracement point for data in Figure 5 May. The first alert zone placed at the start of
June showed that it was a preparation for a
Retracement pullback going down to 38.2% level until
C Price Fib. Level
Point finding its support. However, it took a few
High 69.20 0.0% 69.20 more days for the graph to go up beyond the
23.6% 64.43 50% level. It got through the half-retracement
in the beginning of July when another alert
38.2% 61.48 zone was set on the same retracement ratio but
50.0% 59.10 with the 50.0% fan line ratio. However, it
then functioned as a support in the original
61.8% 56.72 trend. On the increasing movement of the
78.6% 53.32 market, it reached the next alert zone that has
61.8% fan line ratio which again signalled that
Low 49.00 100.0% 49.00 the market would continue the existing
C1 [68.70]
C4 [63.00, 66.25]
Mean Value: 64.44
C2 [61.40, 64.00]
Mean Value: 62.38
C3 [59.05, 61.05]
Mean Value: 59.86
Table 4.4 Data points (A) for Fibonacci Fan high enough before falling deep down the
Lines with Retracement lowest Fibonacci level.
Page 69 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School
M.C. MARTIN, J.G. CAÑAFRANCA AND M.E. ORTIZ
A4 [58.40, 60.90]
Mean Value: 59.57
A1 [55.95, 57.10]
Mean Value: 56.70
A2 [55.15, 57.20]
Mean Value: 56.07
Figure 5. Retracement levels with fan lines of the Unibank from January to October 2011
B3 [55.40, 57.35]
Mean Value: 56.52
B2 [51.80, 54.10]
Mean Value: 52.89
B1 [55.85, 57.45]
Mean Value: 56.64
Figure 6. Retracement levels with fan lines between 2011 and 2012
C4 [62.90, 64.45]
C1 [62.40, 66.73] Mean Value: 63.52
Mean Value: 64.70
C3 [61.05, 61.85]
C2 [61.05, 63.25] Mean Value: 61.37
Mean Value: 61.93
Figure 7. Retracement levels with fan lines October 2011 to December 2012.
C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
63.950 61.050 61.550 64.450 64.900
64.700 63.250 61.250 63.250 64.600
66.725 61.500 61.050 64.000 65.750
66.000 61.150 62.900 65.900
64.950 61.850 63.000 64.300
65.050 63.000
65.500 63.100
Table 4.6 Data Points (C)
63.000 63.000
62.400 64.750
for Fibonacci Fan Lines
65.000
with Retracements
63.600
62.950
63.500
64.000
MIN 62.400 61.050 61.050 62.900 62.950
MAX 66.730 63.250 61.850 64.450 65.900
AVE 64.700 61.500 61.370 63.520 64.170
swing high was plotted, both the 23.6% the Fibonacci levels before continuing the prior
levels of retracement and fan line ratio acted trend. A pattern then leads to the process of
as a support for the market just like what detecting alert zones. With the construction of
happened in Figure 2. the different sets of retracement levels in the
charts, the results show that a reversal usually
The market fell right after reaching its takes place when the price hits either 38.2%,
highest point. Thereafter, it touched the first 50%, or 61.8% levels. When that happens,
alert zone that gave way for the market to the continuance of the trend will be
continue declining until hitting the next alert substantiated. With the retracement levels
zone just below. It was a safe area that made used alongside the fan lines, the alert zones
the trend to rally within 23.6% and 38.2% become more predictive; that is, either the
retracement levels. As the market sank price retraces a previous level or it takes a rally
below the previous support, a major reversal or long run and stays undecided within the
happened on the 61.8% level before meeting region before it rises or falls. A fan line
the last alert zone for this figure. This area considers both the time and the speed of the
held the market for about a month with an price that make the alert zones here more
average price of 64.17 before finally cutting analytical than those detected using the
through the initial peak. retracement, which has the price as its only
basis. In the three levels previously
Examining the price dynamics of the mentioned, the reversals are usually considered
Unibank indicated that as price moves either significant. These reversals must be actually
upward or downward, there is a recognizable monitored and marked as alert zones by a
pattern that becomes more obvious when the trader. Some turning points hitting other ratios
Fibonacci Ratios were applied to the charts. can possibly act as a support or a resistance.
This shows that the market price retraces on But based on the results, these regions become
Page 71 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School
M.C. MARTIN, J.G. CAÑAFRANCA AND M.E. ORTIZ
confirmatory zones. The trader, then, can Finance Journal, Vol. 3, pp. 257 – 284.
probably wait for the graph to touch the
confirmatory zone, and if a breakthrough Chen, C., Huang, C., Lai, H., 2009, Journal of
happens, the trend would continue. If one Asian Economics. The Impact of Data
familiarizes himself with this part of the Snooping on the Testing of Technical Analysis:
process, he would have a lesser risk and higher An Empirical Study of Asian Stock Markets, Vol.
opportunities in investing. Note that the 20, no. 5, pp. 580 – 591.
computed price from where the graph can
possibly have its shift is not far from the mean Deaton, M., 2008, Fibonacci Genius. Available
value of the prices within the alert zone. This from http:// fibonaccigenius.com.
observation goes the same for the two methods
used. Deaton, M., 2010, Fibonacci Clustering.
Available from http://
Conclusions fib o n a c c i c o d e . c o m
Taking into consideration the speed of Douglas, A. ‘”Fibonacci” The Man and the
the movement other than the time interval Markets’, Standard and Poor’s Economic
covered by the price, the Fibonacci fan lines Research Paper, February 20, 2001.
with the retracement levels is more effective Available from: GlobalMarkets.com.
than just using the retracement levels.
Greenbalt, J. How to Time Market Reversals with
Future Outlook Fibonacci Numbers, 2008. Available from:
<http://
Other methods in exploring the price www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks>.
dynamics of different stocks can be used, e.g., [10 August 2012].
the Fibonacci Time Extensions and the
Jagerson, J. Stock Market Analysis and Fibonacci,
Fibonacci Time Projection. The use of these
Part I, 2008. Available from:
methods may not only detect alert zones but
< http://
also consider the progress of the market.
www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks>.
When combined with the methods used in this
[10 August 2012].
research, one may predict more quickly when
and where the price could possibly retrace. Jagerson, J. Stock Market Analysis and Fibonacci,
Part 4, 2008. Available from:
References < http://
Batchelor, R & Ramyar, R., 2006, ‘Magic www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks>.
Numbers in the Dow, London’, Cass [10 August 2012].
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Page 73 Volume 1 The Antoninus Journal A Multidisciplinary Journal of the UST Graduate School