Professional Documents
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Lecture
Introduction
Ramakrishna Gollagari
Professor, Dept. of Economics
IBS Hyderabad
Email: ramakrishnag@ibsindia.org
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Introduction
• Name
• Qualification
• Experience
• Goal
• Achievement
• Experience about the Econometrics
• Future plan
• What do you expect from the course
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books
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Time table
Time Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
12:30PM-
1:20PM
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Men die more due to Covid-19 than women
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Life expectancy at birth
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Introduction
• What is Econometrics?
Definition 1: Economic Measurement
Definition 2: Application of the mathematical statistics to economic data in
order to lend empirical support to the economic mathematical models and
obtain numerical results (Gerhard Tintner, 1968)
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Introduction
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Introduction
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Introduction
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Introduction
Econometrics is what econometricians do”. Kennedy (1996)
“Econometrics is the art and science of using statistical methods for the
measurement of economic relations.”Chow (1985)
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Why separate discipline?
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Why separate discipline?
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Methodology
Starting with a theory or hypothesis
• Before any statistical analysis with economic data is performed, one needs
a clear mathematical formulation of the relevant economic theory. For
example, saying that the demand curve is downward sloping is not
enough. We have to write the statement in mathematical form as:
• q = a + b p ,b < 0
• where q is the quantity demanded and p is the price.
• One major problem: economic theory is rarely informative about functional
forms. Thus, we have to use statistical methods to choose the functional
form as well. Putting it differently, we are often presented with no more
than the data themselves and the theory behind the data generation
process is non-existent or far from being complete. Thus, what we do in
practice is:
• Investigate the important features of the observed data Construct an
empirical model (incorporating as much available background theory as
possible)
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Methodology
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methodology
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methodology
Obtaining Data
Y= Personal consumption
expenditure
X= Gross Domestic Product
all in Billion US Dollars
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data
Year X Y
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methodology
Note: A hat symbol (^) above one variable will signify an estimator of the
relevant population value
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methodology
Hypothesis Testing
Are the estimates accord with the expectations of the theory that is being
tested? Is MPC < 1 statistically? If so, it may support Keynes’ theory.
Confirmation or refutation of economic theories based on sample evidence
is object of Statistical Inference (hypothesis testing)
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methodology
Forecasting or Prediction
With given future value(s) of X, what is the future value(s) of Y?
GDP=$6000 in 1994, what is the forecast consumption expenditure?
Y^= - 231.8+0.7196(6000) = 4084.6
Income Multiplier M = 1/(1 – MPC) (=3.57). Decrease (increase) of $1
in investment will eventually lead to $3.57 decrease (increase) in
income.
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methodology
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Economic Theory
Estimation
Hypothesis Testing
Application
in control or
Forecasting policy
studies
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Software for quantitative data analysis
• Data visualization
Tableau, Excel, R, Python, JMP, Power BI
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Thank You
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