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Public Economics Lectures
Public Economics Lectures
Part 1: Introduction
Harvard University
Fall 2009
1 Practical Relevance
2 Academic Interest
3 Methodology
Which view is right? Injecting science into these political debates has
tremendous practical value
Public economics is typically the end point for many other sub…elds of
economics
5 Long run focus in theory: focus on ideal design of systems for long
run welfare but short-run focus in empirics
50
Revenue and spending (% of GDP)
40
30
20
10
0
Revenue Expenditure
60
Sweden
50
Percent of GDP
Canada
40
OECD Avg.
30
United States
20
Other
Other 4.2% Excise
4.2%
2.7%
Excise
12.6%
Income Income
44% Payroll 45.4% Payroll
15.9% 37.5%
Corporate
23.2% Corporate
12.1%
1960 2008
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government receipts by source
Income Tax
5.9%
Federal Grants
9.4%
Property Income Tax
Tax 15.7% 14.3%
Property
Tax Federal
Other Grants
38.2% Sales Tax
17.7% 19.1%
17.9%
Sales Tax
Other
28.8%
33%
1960 2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 Summary of State & Local Government
Other
Other 11.2%
Social 12.4%
Social
Security Security
13.5% 19.5% Health
Health, 2.9% 23.1%
UI and Net Interest Net
Disability 8.3%
Interest
8.9% 12.3%
UI and Disability, 6.3%
1960 2001
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government outlays by function
1 How can govt. improve e¢ ciency when private market is ine¢ cient?
Amy’
s
Consumption
Bob’
s Consumption
Amy’
s
Consumption
Bob’
s Consumption
Amy’
s
Consumption
Bob’
s Consumption
1 No externalities
2 Perfect information
3 Perfect competition
When some agents have more information than others, markets fail
When markets are not competitive, there is role for govt. regulation
Why does govt. know better what’s desirable for you (e.g. wearing a
seatbelt, not smoking, saving more)
Even when the private market outcome is e¢ cient, may not have
good distributional properties
Amy’
s
Consumption
Bob’
s Consumption
2 Optimal Taxation
4 Social Insurance
Harvard University
Fall 2009
6 Capitalization
7 Mandated Bene…ts
Tax incidence is the study of the e¤ects of tax policies on prices and
the distribution of utilities
If capital taxes ! less savings and capital ‡ight, then capital stock
may decline, driving return to capital up and wages down
Some argue that capital taxes are paid by workers and therefore
increase income inequality (Hassett and Mathur 2009)
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 5 / 142
Overview of Literature
Only one relative price ! partial and general equilibrium are same
∂D q
Let εD = ∂p D (p ) denote the price elasticity of demand
Price-taking …rms
c 0 (S ) > 0 and c 00 (S ) 0
∂S p
Let εS = ∂p S (p ) denote the price elasticity of supply
Equilibrium condition
Q = S (p ) = D (p + t )
de…nes an equation p (t )
dp
Goal: characterize dt , the e¤ect of a tax increase on price
Price
S+t
$7.50 S
B
$30.0
C
$27.0
Consumer
Burden = $4.50 A
$22.5
Supplier
Burden = $3.00 D
$19.5
Price
C
$27.0
Consumer
Burden = $4.50 A
$22.5
Supplier
Burden = $3.00 D
$19.5
$15.0 B
$7.50
D+t D
Price D S+t
S
$27.0
Consumer
burden
$22.5
$7.50
1500 Quantity
Price S+t
S
$7.50
$22.5 D
Supplier
burden
$15.0
1500 Quantity
D (p + t ) = S (p )
to obtain:
dp ∂D 1
=
dt ∂p ( ∂S
∂p
∂D
∂p )
dp εD
) =
dt εS εD
Incidence on consumers:
dq dp εS
= 1+ =
dt dt εS εD
1 –excess supply of E
P1 1 created by imposition of tax
dp = E/Ý /S
/p
? /D
/p
Þ 2 2 –re-equilibriation of market
P2 through producer price cut
/D /S /D
ö dp/dt = /p
/Ý /p
? /p
Þ
D1
D2
Q
/D
E = dt × /p
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 18 / 142
Tax Incidence with Salience E¤ects
Chetty, Looney, and Kroft (2009) test this assumption and generalize
theory to allow for salience e¤ects
Tax-inclusive price of x is q = p (1 + τ ).
∂ log x ∂ log x εx ,1 +τ
θ= / =
∂ log(1 + τ ) ∂ log p εx ,p
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 21 / 142
Chetty et al.: Two Empirical Strategies
Two strategies to estimate θ:
Mean Median SD
Original Price Tags:
Correct tax-inclusive price w/in $0.25 0.18 0.00 0.39
Quasi-experimental di¤erence-in-di¤erences
Treatment group:
Control groups:
CONTROL STORES
Period Control Categories Treated Categories Difference
CONTROL STORES
Period Control Categories Treated Categories Difference
(p + t )x (p, t, Z ) + y (p, t, Z ) = Z
D (p, t, Z ) = S (p )
DÝp|t S Þ S ( p)
1 –excess supply of E
p0 1
created by imposition of tax
/S /D
dp = E/Ý /p
? /p
Þ 2
p1 2 –re-equilibriation of market
/D /S /D
ö dp/dt = S
/t S
/Ý /p
? /p
Þ through pre-tax price cut
S,D
E = tS /D//t S
dp ∂D/∂t εD
= = θ
dt ∂S /∂p ∂D/∂p εS εD
Intuition: Producers need to cut pretax price less when consumers are
less responsive to tax
Then formulate a feasible design and analyze its ‡aws relative to ideal
design
Quality of
Identification
AER, QJE
JPubE
Importance
of Question
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 40 / 142
Cigarette Taxation: Background
Federal tax is $0.24 per pack with $7.3 billion raised in 1996
Note that over the last 50 years, many increases in taxes but real tax
‡at because of in‡ation erosion
D = [PA1 PA0 ]
DD = [PA1 PA0 ] [ PB 1 PB 0 ]
Compute DD for prior periods!if not zero, then DDt =1 prob. biased
Useful to plot long time series of outcomes for treatment and control
Pattern should be parallel lines, with sudden change just after reform
ERS have data for 50 states, 30 years, and many tax changes
Often the case in practice - states with taxes di¤er in many ways (e.g.
more anti-tobacco campaigns)
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 48 / 142
Fixed E¤ects
Note: common changes that apply to all groups (e.g. fed tax change)
captured by time dummy; not a source of variation that identi…es β
Regress price on state/year …xed e¤ects, covariates, and tax rate (in
cents)
DD before and after one year captures short term response: e¤ect of
current price Pjt on current consumption Qjt
Finds cigarette, gasoline and alcohol taxation are less regressive (in
statutory terms) from a lifetime perspective
High corr. between income and cons share in cross-section; weaker
corr. with permanent income.
2 Behavioral models (Gruber and Koszegi 2004)
Question: How does food stamps subsidy a¤ect grocery store pricing?
Food stamps typically arrive at the same time for a large group of
people, e.g. …rst of the month
Data from other states where food stamps are staggered across
month used as a control
Ex: inelastic demand for low-skilled labor and elastic supply ! wage
rate adjusts 1-1 with EITC
1 Employers
2 EITC-eligible workers
3 EITC-ineligible workers
Example: 100 short, 100 tall pre-reform and 200 short, 100 tall
post-reform
Then put 2/3 weight on tall and 1/3 on short when calculating wage
distribution after reform
To deal with this, repeats same analysis for 1989-1992 (no EITC
expansion) and takes di¤erences
Wage elasticity estimates: 0.7 for labor supply, 0.3 for labor demand
4 Short run vs. long run e¤ects; important due to evidence of nominal
wage rigidities.
1 Market rigidities:
But with binding minimum wage, employers cannot cut wage further,
so statutory incidence determines economic incidence on the margin
1 Market rigidities
2 Imperfect competition
1 Market rigidities
2 Imperfect competition
Output e¤ect reinforces subst e¤ect: K bears the burden of the tax
Subst. and output e¤ects have opposite signs; labor may bear some or
all the tax
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 91 / 142
Harberger Model: Main E¤ects
Capital bears more than 100% of the burden if output e¤ect su¢ ciently
strong
With very elastic demand (two goods are highly substitutable), demand
for labor rises sharply and demand for capital falls sharply
Capital loses more than direct tax e¤ect and labor suppliers gain
Ex. Consider tax on capital in bike sector: demand for bikes falls,
demand for cars rises
Bottom line: taxed factor may bear less than 0 or more than 100% of
tax.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 93 / 142
Harberger Two Sector Model
Theory not very informative: model mainly used to illustrate negative
result that “anything goes”
Ex: Deductions for mortgage interest and prop. tax are about $50 bn
total
r = F2K = (1 τ )F1K
Two strategies:
Need models with uncertainty, risk aversion to deal with other assets
Motivates regression:
In closed economy, β = 1
Ex. Europe: tax competition has led to lower capital tax rates
Could explain why state capital taxes are relatively low in the U.S.
Static analysis above assumes that all prices and quantities adjust
immediately
Examine pattern of asset prices or returns over time, look for break at
time of announcement of policy change
Problem: clean shocks are rare; big reforms do not happen suddenly
and are always expected to some extent
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 108 / 142
Empirical Applications
Here, events are the dates when TRA was voted on in the House and
Senate
Changes in future tax liabilities not correlated with stock value changes
Labor demand (D) and labor supply (S) are functions of the wage, w
Initial equilibrium:
D (w0 ) = S (w0 )
Now, govt mandates employers provide a bene…t with cost t
New equilibrium:
D (w + t ) = S (w + αt )
Wage S
Rate
w1 A
D1
L1 Labor Supply
Wage S
Rate
w1 A
$1
D2 D1
L1 Labor Supply
Wage S
Rate
$α
w1 A
B
C
w2
$1
D2 D1
L1 Labor Supply
where
η D = wD 0 /D < 0
η S = wS 0 /S > 0
In 1990, expected cost for pregnancy about $500 per year for married
women aged 20 to 40
Placebo DD C for control group: people over 40 and single males aged
20-40
DDD = DD T DD C
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 134 / 142
Public Economics Lectures () Part 2: Tax Incidence 135 / 142
Gruber: Results
Indirect aggregate evidence also suggests that costs have been shifted
on wages
Wage S
Rate
w1 A
B
minimum wage
w2
D2 D1
L1 Labor Supply
Acemoglu and Angrist estimate the impact of act using data from the
Current Population Survey
ADA intended to help those with disabilities but appears to have hurt
many of them because of wage discrimination clause
Harvard University
Fall 2009
1 Marshallian surplus
4 Harberger formula
6 Empirical Applications
2 To redistribute income
2 Competitive production
max u (x ) + y s.t. (p + t )x (p + t, Z ) + y (p + t, Z ) = Z
x ,y
c 0 (S ) > 0 and c 00 (S ) 0
pS c (S )
Q satis…es:
Q (t ) = D (p + t ) = S (p )
Consider e¤ect of introducing a small tax d τ > 0 on Q and surplus
$30.0 A
1500 Quantity
B
Excess Burden
$36.0
$30.0 A
$t
There are three empirically implementalbe ways to measure the area of the
triangle:
Tax revenue R = Qd τ
EB 1 ηS ηD d τ
=
R 2 ηS ηD p
Public Economics Lectures () Part 3: E¢ ciency 12 / 105
E¢ ciency Cost: Marshallian Surplus
2. In terms of total change in equilibrium qty caused by tax
dQ p 0
De…ne η Q = dτ Q
∂EB ηS ηD τ τ
= Q = ηQ Q
∂τ ηS ηD p p
1 ηS ηD dτ
EB = pQ ( )2
2 ηS ηD p
P
S
P1
A
Q1 Q
P S+t1
S
B
P2
P1
A
$t1
D
Q2 Q1 Q
P S+t1+t2 S+t1
S
P3 E
B
P2
Change in EB
P1
A
$t2
C
Q3 Q2 Q1 Q
P P
S+t S+t
S S
B
P2
B
P2
P1 P1 A
A
C
D
$t $t C
Q 2 Q1 Q Q2 Q1 Q
With many goods, formula suggests that the most e¢ cient way to
raise tax revenue is:
1 Tax relatively more the inelastic goods (e.g. medical drugs, food)
2 Spread taxes across all goods so as to keep tax rates relatively low on
all goods (broad tax base)
u (c1 , .., cN ) = u (c )
Individual program:
max u (c ) s.t. q c Z
c
uci = λqi
dZ = ci dqi
With one price changing, this is area under the demand curve
CS (q 0 ! q̃ ) + CS (q̃ ! q 1 ) 6= CS (q 0 ! q 1 )
dc2 dc1
For CS1 = CS2 , need dq 1 = dq 2
Initial utility:
u 0 = v (q 0 , Z )
Utility at new price q 1 :
u 1 = v (q 1 , Z )
Two concepts: compensating (CV ) and equivalent variation (EV ) use
u 0 and u 1 as reference utility levels
CV = e (q 1 , u 0 ) e (q 0 , u 0 ) = e (q 1 , u 0 ) Z
e (q 0 , u 0 ) = e (q 1 , u 0 ) CV
Lump sum amount agent willing to pay to avoid tax (at pre-tax prices)
EV = e (q 1 , u 1 ) e (q 0 , u 1 ) = Z e (q 0 , u 1 )
EV is amount extra that can be taken from agent to leave him with
same ex-post utility:
e (q 0 , u 1 ) + EV = e (q 1 , u 1 )
If only one price is changing, this is the area under the Hicksian
demand curve for that good
p1
p0
x(p1,Z) x(p0,Z) x
p1
EV
p0
x(p1,Z) x(p0,Z) x
p1
CV
p0
x(p1,Z) x(p0,Z) x
p1
Marshallian Surplus
p0
x(p1,Z) x(p0,Z) x
Slutsky equation:
∂hi ∂ci ∂c
= + cj i
∂qj ∂qj ∂Z}
| {z
|{z} |{z}
Hicksian Slope Marshallian Slope Income E¤ect
∂h
Optimization implies Slutsky matrix is symmetric: ∂∂qhi = ∂qj
j i
R q1
Therefore the integral q0
h (q, u )dq is path independent
Public Economics Lectures () Part 3: E¢ ciency 38 / 105
Excess Burden
EB (u 1 ) = EV (q 1 q 0 )h (q 1 , u 1 ) [Mohring 1971]
EB (u 0 ) = CV (q 1 q 0 )h (q 1 , u 0 ) [Diamond and McFadden 1974]
p1
EBEV EBCV
p0
x(p1,Z) xC(p1,V(p0,Z)) x
~ ~ ~
p1
Marshallian
p0
x(p1,Z) xC(p1,V(p0,Z)) x
~ ~ ~
EB (τ ) = [e (p + τ, U ) e (p, U )] τh1 (p + τ, U )
MEB = EB (τ + ∆τ ) EB (τ )
dEB 1 d 2 EB
' (∆τ ) + (∆τ )2
dτ 2 d τ2
dEB dh1
= h1 (p + τ, U ) τ h1 (p + τ, U )
dτ dτ
dh1
= τ
dτ
d 2 EB dh1 d 2 h1
= τ
d τ2 dτ d τ2
2
Standard practice in literature: assume dd τh21 (linear Hicksian); not
necessarily well justi…ed because it does not vanish as ∆τ ! 0
dh1 1 dh1
) MEB = τ∆τ (∆τ )2
dτ 2 dτ
Formula equals area of “Harberger trapezoid” using Hicksian demands
Ex: with an income tax, minimize total DWL tax by taxing goods
complementary to leisure (Corlett and Hague 1953)
Public Economics Lectures () Part 3: E¢ ciency 46 / 105
Goulder and Williams 2003
1 No income e¤ects
2 Ignore interactions with commodities other than labor (other taxes are
small)
Why? Price increase in all consumption goods has the same e¤ect on
labor supply as an increase in tax on labor:
(1 + t ) ∑ pk ck = wl
k
dl
Find good at the mean level of d τk
A tax increase on this good has same e¤ect as an increase in sales tax
t on all consumption goods scaled down by sk
dW K K
d ∑K k
k =1 x1 dx1
dt
= ∑ x1k + ∑ x1k + t
dt
=t
dt
k =1 k =1
Agents have value Vk for good 1; can either buy or not buy
Utility of agent k is
Vk x1 + Z (p + t )x1
Social welfare:
Z
W (t ) = f max[Vk x1k + Z (p1 + t )x1k ]dF (Vk )g
Vk x1k
Z
+ tx1k dF (Vk )
Vk
R _∞
dW _ _ d V
dF (Vk )
= 1 F V + 1 F V +t
dt dt
dW dx1
) = t
dt dt
p = u 0 (x (p ))
c = (1 t )TI + e
Social welfare:
N
W (t ) = f(1 t )TI + e g (e ) ∑ ψi (li )g + tTI
i =1
max u (c, l, e ) = c ψ (l )
e,l
s.t. c = y + (1 t )(wl e) + e z (e )
W (t ) = fy + (1 t )(wl e) + e
z (e ) ψ(l )g
+z (e ) + t (wl e)
Estimate εLI and εTI to implement formula that permits transfer costs
dTI
Taxable income elasticity dt is large, whereas labor income elasticity
dLI
dt is not
c=r τ i
Tax reform in 1986 lowered tax rates for high income and raised user
cost of housing sharply
Rosen (1982): εH ,r = 1
Income elasticity: 0.75
Housing share: 0.25
3 1
) Compensated elasticity: 1+ ' 0.8
4 4
Intuition for large elasticity: broker calculates “how much house you
can a¤ord” if they spend 30% of income
Can “a¤ord” more with larger tax subsidy ! tax is e¤ectively salient
Tax reforms in 1980s reduced DWL from $12K to $2K for each
household earning $250K
Diesel fuel used for business purposes (e.g. trucking) is taxed, but
residential purposes (e.g. heating homes) is not
Use cross-state variation in tax rates and price variation from world
market
Danger of paternalism
Choice inconsistency if C (X , d ) 6= C (X , d 0 )
Tax-inclusive price of x: q = p + t S
(p + t S )x (p, t S , Z ) + y (p, t S , Z ) = Z
p = c 0 (S (p ))
∂S p
Let εS = ∂p S (p )
denote the price elasticity of supply
A2 When tax inclusive prices are fully salient, the agent chooses the same
allocation as a fully-optimizing agent:
p0 + t S G D E
F /x//tS
/x//t S
EB p ? 12 Ýt S Þ 2 /x//p
/x//t S
tS /x//p
p0 A
B I H tS /x
/t S
x
x1* x1 x0
∂x
In the case without income e¤ects ( ∂Z = 0), which implies utility is
quasilinear, excess burden of introducing a small tax t S is
1 S 2 ∂x /∂t S
EB (t S ) ' (t ) ∂x /∂t S
2 ∂x /∂p
1 S 2 εD
= (θt )
2 p + tS
1 S 2 ∂x c /∂t S c
EB (t S ) ' (t ) ∂x /∂t S
2 ∂x c /∂p
1 c S 2 εcD
= (θ t )
2 p + tS
1 S 2 ∂x c /∂t S c
EB (t S ) ' (t ) ∂x /∂t S
2 ∂x c /∂p
1 c S 2 εcD
= (θ t )
2 p + tS
With income e¤ects (dx /dZ > 0), making a tax less salient can raise
deadweight loss.
Tax smoothing
Harvard University
Fall 2009
What is the best way to design taxes given equity and e¢ ciency
concerns?
Simply implement lump sum taxes that meet distributional goals given
revenue requirement
Problem: information
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 4 / 121
Second Welfare Theorem: Information Constraints
To set the optimal lump-sum taxes, need to know the characteristics
(ability) of each individual
But no way to make people reveal their ability at no cost
pi = 1
) qi = 1 + τi
u (x1 , .., xN , l )
q1 x1 + .. + qN xN wl + Z
max V (q, Z )
∂ LG ∂V
) = + λ[ xi + ∑ τ j ∂xj /∂qi ] = 0
∂qi ∂qi |{z}
|{z} |
j
{z }
Mechanical
Priv. Welfare Behavioral
E¤ect
Loss to Indiv. Response
∂V
Using Roy’s identity ( ∂q i
= αxi ):
∂xj xi
∑ τj ∂qi =
λ
(λ α)
j
where θ = λ α ∂
λ ∂Z (∑j τ j xj )
1 ∂hi θ
xi ∑ τj ∂qj =
λ
j
Suppose revenue requirement E is small so that all taxes are also small
τi θ 1
=
1 + τi λ εii
∂hi ∂hi
qi = w
∂qi ∂w
Proof of identity (J good economy, no labor):
∂hi ∂hj ∂hi
∑ qj = ∑ qj + qi
j ∂qj j 6 =i ∂qi ∂qi
∂hj qj ∂hi qi
= ∑ + hi
j 6 =i ∂qi ∂qi
∂e
= hi = 0
∂qi
Xi ( q ) = ∑ xih
h
At optimum:
dW + λdE = 0
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 23 / 121
Diamond: Many-Person Optimal Tax Formula
For goods that are consumed by the poor (∑h βh xih )/(λXi ) is large
Optimal tax rate for these goods is lower (elasticities being the same)
Constraint arises because poor cannot a¤ord to pay lump sum tax
2 Characterize optimal tax rates with endogenous prices and show that
Ramsey rule can be applied
Standard optimal policy results only hold with single deviation from
…rst best
Bottom line: only tax goods that appear directly in agent’s utility
functions
First trace out demand as a function of tax rates: the o¤er curve
Government’s problem is to
max V (q ) = u (x (q ), l (q ))
τ
1 Revenue constraint: τc E
2 Production constraint: x = f (l )
X (q ) = ∑ x h (q ) 2 H
h
MRTxy 6= MRSxy
Industry A:
Uses labor lA to produce good A
One for one technology
Industry B:
Uses good A and labor lB to produce good B xB = F (lB , xA )
Constant returns to scale
F (lB , xA ) wl (w + τ )xA
) Fl = w and FxA = w + τ > Fl
Then xA increases
Computers:
Sales to …rms should be untaxed
But sales to consumers should be taxed
Optimal tax formulas take the same form as the solution to Ramsey
many-persons problem
1 Set a full set of di¤erentiated tax rates on each input and output
2 Set tari¤s on low skilled intensive imported goods (to protect domestic
industry)
$50,000 $50,000
Tax credits:
Disposable Earnings
$30,000 $30,000
EITC+CTC
Earnings after
$20,000 $20,000 taxes
45 Degree Line
$10,000 $10,000
$0 $0
$0
$5,383
$10,765
$16,148
$21,530
$26,913
$32,295
$37,678
$43,060
$48,443
Gross Earnings (with employer payroll taxes)
L = [u (z T (z )) + λT (z )]h (z )
T (z ) : 0 = ∂L/∂T (z ) = [ u 0 (z T (z )) + λ]h (z )
0
) u (z T (z )) = λ
) z T (z ) = c constant for all z
) c = z̄ E
R
where z̄ = zh (z )dz average income
2 Marginal tax rate T 0 (.) should be zero at the top if skill distribution
bounded [Sadka-Seade]
But until late 1990s, Mhad little impact on practical tax policy
τ
dM + dW + dB = Nd τ (1 ḡ )[z m z̄ ] ε̄ zm
1 τ
Note: this is not an explicit formula for top tax rate because zm /z̄ is
a fn. of τ
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 64 / 121
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 65 / 121
Optimal Top Income Tax Rate
a zm
With Pareto distribution (f (z ) = a k a /z 1 +a ), a 1 = z̄ )a=2
1 ḡ
) τ TOP =
1 ḡ + a ε̄
dM = dzd τ (1 H (z ))
dW = dzd τ (1 H (z ))G (z )
Optimum dM + dW + dB = 0
T 0 (z ) 1 1 H (z )
0
= [1 G (z )]
1 T (z ) ε (z ) zh (z )
G (z ) ! ḡ , (1 H (z ))/(zh (z )) ! 1/a
∞ Z
T 0 (z (w )) 1 1 G 0 (u (s ))
= 1 + 1 f (s )ds,
1 T 0 (z (w )) ε wf (w ) w p
R
where p = G 0 (u (s ))f (s )ds is marginal value of public funds
Start with initial MTR schedule T00 and compute incomes z 0 (w ) using
individual FOCs
V (z T (z ), p + t ) = V (z T̄ (z ), p )
Claim: T̄ (z ) T (z ) + t c (t )
For a given utility level, can extract more using lump sum tax than
distortionary tax
Let c (t ) denote optimal bundle with tax (t, T (z )) and c (0) denote
optimal bundle with tax (0, T̄ (z ))
Optimization implies
p c (t ) = z T (z ) t c (t ) p c (0) = z T̄ (z )
) T̄ (z ) T (z ) + t c (t )
But not if Engel curves for each ck are linear in y (Deaton 1981)
1 High ability people have a relatively higher taste for good k (at a given
income)
u ( c2 )
u h ( c1 , c2 , z ) = u ( c1 ) + ψ(z/w )
1+δ
The budget constraint is
c 1 + c2 / ( 1 + r ( 1 tK )) z T (z )
If low ability people have higher δ then capital income tax tK > 0 is
desirable (Saez 2004)
Costs: Paternalism (spend on the right things), ine¢ cient ordeal cost
Participation elasticity is
No income e¤ects ! ∑i gi hi = 1
FOC: dM + dB + dW = 0 )
τi Ti T0 1
= = (1 gi )
1 τi ci c0 ei
g1 > 1 ) T1 T0 < 0 ) work subsidy
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 104 / 121
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 105 / 121
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 106 / 121
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 107 / 121
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 108 / 121
Saez 2002: General Model
Calibrations show that average tall person (> 6ft) should pay $4500
more in tax
Public Economics Lectures () Part 4: Optimal Taxation 112 / 121
Problems with Tagging
Up = 2S .5W
Ur = S 1W
R has higher disutility from waiting and lower utility from soup
Social welfare
SWF = Up + Ur
With a total of $100 in soup to give away and no wait times, the soup
will be split between the two agents
Up = 100
Ur = 50
SWF = 150
Social welfare with in-kind transfer (wait time) greater than cash
transfer (no wait time)
Individual utility
U = Eu (z T (z )) e
Chooses e = e to maximize this utility
See Golosov and Tsyvinski (2007) and Chetty and Saez (2009) for
some attempts
Harvard University
Fall 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 1 / 217
Outline
7 Macro Estimates
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 3 / 217
Theoretical Issues in Estimation
log l
Optimal tax rate depends inversely on εc = ∂∂log w U =U , the
compensated wage elasticity of labor supply
Baseline model: (1) static, (2) linear tax system, (3) pure intensive
margin choice, (4) single hours choice, (5) no frictions
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 4 / 217
Baseline Labor-Leisure Choice Model: Key Assumptions
1 Static model
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 5 / 217
Static Model: Setup
1 +1/ε
Agent has utility u (c, l ) = c a l1+1/ε
Agent earns wage w per hour worked and has y in non-labor income
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 6 / 217
Labor Supply Behavior
l = α + ε log(1 τ )w
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 7 / 217
Problems with OLS Estimation of Labor Supply Equation
1 Econometric issues
Unobserved heterogeneity [tax instruments]
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 8 / 217
Econometric Problem 1: Unobserved Heterogeneity
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 9 / 217
Econometric Problem 2: Measurement Error/Division Bias
When hours are measured with noise, this can lead to “division bias”
e
Compute w = l where e is earnings
) log l = log l + µ
) log w = log e log l = log e log l µ = log w µ
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 10 / 217
Measurement Error and Division Bias
Mis-measurement of hours causes a spurious link between hours and
wages
log l = β1 + β2 log w + ε
Then
cov (log l, log w ) cov (log l + µ, log w µ)
Eb
β2 = =
var (log w ) var (log w ) + var (µ)
Problem: E b
β2 6= ε because orthogonality restriction for OLS violated
Ex. workers with high mis-reported hours also have low imputed
wages, biasing elasticity estimate downward
This can bias OLS estimates: low wage earners must have very high
unobserved propensity to work to …nd it worthwhile
P = φ(α + ε log(1 τ) ηy )
Hours very hard to measure (most ppl report 40 hours per week)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 15 / 217
Source: Congressional Budget O¢ ce 2005
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 16 / 217
Example 1: Progressive Income Tax
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 17 / 217
Example 2: EITC
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 18 / 217
Example 3: Social Security Payroll Tax Cap
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 19 / 217
Example 4: Negative Income Tax
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 20 / 217
Progressive Taxes and Labor Supply
l = α + βw (1 τ ) + γy + e
w3
y3
w2
y2
w1
y1
-L L2 l* L1
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 23 / 217
NLBS Likelihood Function
Consider a two-bracket tax system
Individual can locate on …rst bracket, on second bracket, or at the
kink lK
Likelihood = probability that we see individual i at labor supply li
given a parameter vector
Decompose likelihood into three components
Component 1: individual i on …rst bracket: 0 < li < lK
li = α + βwi (1 τ 1 ) + γy 1 + ei
Error ei = li (α + βwi (1 τ 1 ) + γy 1 ). Likelihood:
Li = φ((li (α + βwi (1 τ 1 ) + γy 1 )/σ)
Component 2: individual i on second bracket: lK < li . Likelihood:
Li = φ((li (α + βwi (1 τ 2 ) + γy 2 )/σ)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 24 / 217
Likelihood Function: Located at the Kink
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 25 / 217
Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 26 / 217
Hausman (1981) Application
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 27 / 217
NLBS and Bunching at Kinks
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 29 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 30 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 31 / 217
Saez 2009: Bunching at Kinks
Saez implements this method using individual tax return micro data
(IRS public use …les) from 1960 to 2004
First kink point of the Earned Income Tax Credit, especially for
self-employed
At threshold of the …rst tax bracket where tax liability starts, especially
in the 1960s when this point was very stable
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 32 / 217
Earnings Density and the EITC: Wage Earners vs. Self-Employed
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 33 / 217
Earnings Density and the EITC: Wage Earners vs. Self-Employed
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 34 / 217
Taxable Income Density, 1960-1969: Bunching around First Kink
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 35 / 217
Taxable Income Density, 1960-1969: Bunching around First Kink
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 36 / 217
Friedberg 2000: Social Security Earnings Test
Phaseout rate varies by age group - 50%, 33%, 0 (lower for older
workers)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 37 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 38 / 217
Friedberg: Estimates
!So the one kink where we do …nd real bunching is actually not real!
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 39 / 217
Borenstein 2009: Electricity Consumption
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 40 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 41 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 42 / 217
Why not more bunching at kinks?
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 43 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 44 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 45 / 217
Chetty, Friedman, Olsen, and Pistaferri (2009)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 46 / 217
Chetty et al. 2009: Model
Workers draw from this distribution and must pay search cost to
reoptimize
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 47 / 217
Chetty et al. 2009: Testable Predictions
Large tax changes are more likely to induce workers to search for a
di¤erent job
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 48 / 217
Cost of Bunching at Bracket Cuto¤ Points in Tax Schedule
Consumption
U(c,h) = U*
U(c,h) = U* –φ
Slope = (1 –τ2)w
Slope = (1 –τ2’)w
Slope =
(1 –τ1)w
_ _
h
_ h* h’ h Labor Supply
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 49 / 217
Chetty et al. 2009: Data
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 50 / 217
Marginal Tax Rates in Denmark in 1995
80
∆log(NTR) = -29%
Marginal Tax Rate (%)
60
∆log(NTR )= -6%
∆log(NTR) = -9%
40
20
Note: $1 ≅ 6 DKr
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 51 / 217
All Wage Earners: Top Tax Bracket Cutoff (1994-2001)
100000
80000
Frequency
60000
40000
20000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 52 / 217
All Wage Earners: Top Tax Bracket Cutoff (1994-2001)
100000
80000
Frequency
60000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 53 / 217
All Wage Earners: Top Tax Bracket Cutoff (1994-2001)
60000
40000
20000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 54 / 217
Married Women
10000
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 55 / 217
Single Men
15000
10000
5000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 56 / 217
Married Female Professionals with Above Median Experience
2000
1000
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 57 / 217
Military
10000
Excess mass = 1.25%
Standard error = 0.61%
8000
Frequency
6000
4000
2000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 58 / 217
Married Women, 1994
4000
Excess mass = 15.9%
Standard error = 1.41%
3000
Frequency
2000
1000
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 59 / 217
Married Women, 1995
4000
Excess mass = 14.0%
Standard error = 1.50%
3000
Frequency
2000
1000
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 60 / 217
Married Women, 1996
5000
Excess mass = 14.1%
4000
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 61 / 217
Married Women, 1997
5000
Excess mass = 11.2%
4000
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 62 / 217
Married Women, 1998
5000
Excess mass = 14.0%
Standard error = 1.39%
4000
3000
Frequency
2000
1000
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 63 / 217
Married Women, 1999
5000
Excess mass = 15.6%
4000
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 64 / 217
Married Women, 2000
5000
Excess mass = 19.5%
4000
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 65 / 217
Married Women, 2001
5000
Excess mass = 12.1%
Standard error = 1.75%
4000
Frequency
3000
2000
1000
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 66 / 217
Married Women at the Middle Tax: 10% Tax Kink
-50 0 50
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 67 / 217
Married Women at the Middle Tax: 10% Tax Kink
Empirical Distribution
No Adj. Cost Simulation
4000
-50 0 50
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 68 / 217
Married Women at the Middle Tax: 8% Tax Kink
Empirical Distribution
No Adj. Cost Simulation
4000
-50 0 50
Taxable Income Relative to Top Bracket Cutoff (1000s DKr)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 69 / 217
Observed Elasticity vs. Size of Tax Change
Married Female Wage Earners
Observed Elasticities for Married Women
0.03
0.02
0.01
-0.01
0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 70 / 217
Distribution of Individuals’Deductions in 1995
50
40
Percent
30
20
10
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 71 / 217
Teachers Wage Income: 1995
1500
1000
Frequency
500
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Wage Income (1000s DKr)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 72 / 217
Teachers Wage Income: 1998
1500
1000
Frequency
500
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Wage Income (1000s DKr)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 73 / 217
Teachers Wage Income: 2001
1000
800
600
Frequency
400
200
0
175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275 285 295 305 315 325
Wage Income (1000s DKr)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 74 / 217
Wage Earnings: Teachers with Deductions > DKr 20,000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 75 / 217
(a) Electricians,
Electricians (3114),2000
2000 (b) Salesmen, 1996
300
80
60
200
Frequency
Frequency
40
100
20
0
0
-100 -50 0 50 100 -100 -50 0 50 100
Wage Wage Earnings
Earnings Relative
Relative to Topto Top Bracket
Bracket Cutoff Cutoff
(1000s DKr) Wage Wage Earnings
Earnings Relative
Relative to Topto Top Bracket
Bracket Cutoff Cutoff
(1000s DKr)
(c) Nurses and Midwifes, 2001 (d) Tellers and Clerks, 1998
150
400
300
100
Frequency
Frequency
200
50
100
0
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 76 / 217
Distribution of Modes in Occupation Wage Earnings Distributions
15
10
Frequency
5
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 77 / 217
Self-Employed: Distribution around Top Tax Cutoff
40000
Excess mass = 150.0%
Standard error = 1.4%
30000
Frequency
20000
10000
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 78 / 217
Self-Employed: Distribution around 10% Middle Tax Cutoff
6000
4000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 79 / 217
Chetty et al. 2009: Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 80 / 217
Estimates of Hours and Participation Elasticities
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 81 / 217
Negative Income Tax
Hard to identify the key elasticity relevant for policy purposes and
predict labor supply e¤ect of other programs
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 84 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 85 / 217
NIT Experiments: Findings
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 86 / 217
Problems with Experimental Design
Estimates from NIT not considered credible due to several shortcomings:
1 Self reported earnings
Treatments had …nancial incentives to under-report earnings.
Reported earnings not well correlated with actual payments
!Lesson: need to match with administrative records
2 Selective attrition
After initial year, data was collected based on voluntary income reports
by families to qualify for the grant
Those in less generous groups/far above breakeven point had much less
incentive to report
Huge cost for a social experiment but trivial relative to budget of the
US federal government ($2 trillion)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 88 / 217
Instrumental Variable Methods
= α + βw + γX + ε
li
w = θZ + µ
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 89 / 217
Hausman Test
Suppose you can divide instrument set into those that are credibly
exogenous (Z ) and those that are questionable (Z )
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 90 / 217
Mroz 1987: Setup and Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 91 / 217
Tax Reform Variation (Eissa 1995)
Modern studies use tax changes as “natural experiments”
Uses the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to identify the e¤ect of MTRs on
labor force participation and hours of married women
TRA 1986 cut top income MTR from 50% to 28% from 1986 to 1988
But did not signi…cantly change tax rates for the middle class
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 96 / 217
Eissa 1995: Caveats
Liebman and Saez (2006) show that Eissa’s results are not robust
using admin data (SSA matched to SIPP)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 97 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 98 / 217
Bianchi, Gudmundsson, and Zoega 2001
Data: individual tax returns matched with data on weeks worked from
insurance database
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 99 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 100 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 101 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 102 / 217
Bianchi, Gudmundsson, and Zoega 2001
Note that elasticities reported in paper are w.r.t. average tax rates:
∑(L87 LA )/LA
εL,T /E =
∑ T86 /E86
∑ 87 EA )/EA
( E
εE ,T /E =
∑ T86 /E86
Estimates imply hours elasticity w.r.t. marginal tax rate of roughly
0.29
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 103 / 217
Responses to Low-Income Transfer Programs
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 104 / 217
Overall Costs of Anti Poverty Programs
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 105 / 217
1996 Welfare Reform
Variation across states because Fed govt. gave block grants with
guidelines
EITC also expanded during this period: general shift from welfare to
“workfare”
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 106 / 217
Monthly Welfare Case Loads: 1963-2000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 107 / 217
Welfare Reform: Two Empirical Questions
2 Bene…ts: did removing many people from transfer system reduce their
welfare?
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 108 / 217
Behavioral Responses to the EITC
1 Phase in:
Substitution e¤ect: work more due to 40% inc. in net wage
Income e¤ect: work less
!Net e¤ect: ambiguous; probably work more
2 Plateau:
Pure income e¤ect (no change in net wage)
!Net e¤ect: work less
3 Phase out:
Substitution e¤ect: work less because reduces net wage to $0.80/hr
Income e¤ect: also make you work less
!Net e¤ect: work less
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 109 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 110 / 217
Eissa and Liebman 1996
Di¤-in-Di¤ strategy:
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 111 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 112 / 217
Eissa and Liebman: Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 113 / 217
Meyer and Rosenbaum 2001
1
Employment Rate
.9
.8
.7
Children No Children
Source: Meyer and Rosenbaum 2001
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 116 / 217
Meyer and Rosenbaum 2001
Analyze the introduction of EITC and Welfare waivers for the period
1984-1996 using CPS data
EITC
AFDC bene…ts
Medicaid
Waivers
Training
Child Care
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 117 / 217
Meyer and Rosenbaum 2001
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 118 / 217
Eissa and Hoynes 2004
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 119 / 217
Eissa and Hoynes: Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 120 / 217
Meyer and Sullivan 2004
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 121 / 217
Total Consumption: Single Mothers 1984-2000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 122 / 217
Relative Consumption: single women with/without children
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 123 / 217
Relative Consumption: married vs. single mothers
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 124 / 217
Meyer and Sullivan: Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 125 / 217
Other Behavioral Responses to Transfer Programs
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 126 / 217
Changing Elasticities: Blau and Kahn 2007
Result: total hours elasticity (including int + ext margin) shrank from
0.4 in 1980 to 0.2 today
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 127 / 217
Summary of Static Labor Supply Literature
2 Larger responses for workers who are less attached to labor force
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 128 / 217
Intertemporal Models and the MaCurdy Critique
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 129 / 217
Life Cycle Model of Labor Supply
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 130 / 217
Life Cycle Model: Time Separability
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 131 / 217
Dynamic Life Cycle Model: Policy Rules
λ = uc0 is the marginal utility of initial consumption
All other wage rates and initial wealth enter only through the budget
constraint multiplier λ (MaCurdy 1981)
wt ∂l
δ=( ) jλ
lt ∂wt
Experiment: change wage rate in one period only, holding all other
wages, and consumption pro…le constant
In separable case:
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 133 / 217
Dynamic Life Cycle Model: Three Types of Wage Changes
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 134 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 135 / 217
Frisch vs. Compensated vs. Uncompensated Elasticities
Looney and Singhal (2007) exploit this logic to identify Frisch elasticity
MaCurdy (1983)
Structural estimate using panel data for men and within-person wage
variation
Find both Frisch and compensated wage elasticity of around 0.15
But wage variation is not exogenous
Pencavel (2002)
Instruments with trade balance interacted with schooling and age
Frisch elasticity: 0.2
Uncompensated wage elasticity: 0-0.2
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 138 / 217
Card Critique of ITLS models
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 139 / 217
Blundell, Duncan, and Meghir 1998
E.g., reduced tax rate may pull households into that tax group
Use birth cohort (decade) interacted with education (e.g. high school
or more)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 140 / 217
Blundell, Duncan, and Meghir 1998
Measure how labor supply co-varies with wages rates net of taxes in
the UK in 1980s
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 141 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 142 / 217
Blundell, Duncan, and Meghir: Results
See Pencavel (1986) and Blundell and MaCurdy (1999) for additional
ITLS estimates
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 143 / 217
Intertemporal Substitution: High Frequency Studies
Camerer et al. 1997: examine how variation across days in wage rate
for cab drivers (arising from variation in waiting times) correlates with
hours worked
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 144 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 145 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 146 / 217
Farber 2005: Division Bias
Camerer et al. recognize this and try to instrument with average daily
wage for each individual’s wage
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 147 / 217
Farber: Alternative Test
Farber’s alternative test for target earnings: hazard model
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 149 / 217
Lump-Sum Severance Payments at Retirement
1
.75
Fraction of Last Year's Salary
.5
.333
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Years of Tenure at Retirement
Source: Manoli and Weber 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 150 / 217
Distribution of Tenure at Retirement
Quarterly Frequency
6000
Number of Individuals
4000
2000
0
10 15 20 25
Years of Tenure at Retirement
Source: Manoli and Weber 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 151 / 217
Taxable Income Elasticities
1 Convenient su¢ cient statistic for all distortions created by income tax
system (Feldstein 1999)
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 152 / 217
US Income Taxation: Trends
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 153 / 217
Saez 2004: Long-Run Evidence
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 154 / 217
Bottom 99% Tax Units
40% $40,000
35% $35,000
30% $30,000
Marginal Tax Rate
25% $25,000
20% $20,000
15% $15,000
10% $10,000
0% $0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1984
1986
1988
1990
2000
1982
1998
1960
1962
1964
1968
1992
1994
1996
1966
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 155 / 217
Top 1% Tax Units
80% $800,000
70% $700,000
60% $600,000
Marginal Tax Rate
50% $500,000
40% $400,000
30% $300,000
20% $200,000
0% $0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1984
1986
1988
1990
2000
1982
1998
1960
1962
1964
1968
1992
1994
1996
1966
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 156 / 217
Feldstein 1995
Looks at how incomes and MTR evolve from 1985 to 1988 for
individuals in each group using panel
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 157 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 158 / 217
Feldstein: Results
Implication: we were on the wrong side of the La¤er curve for the rich
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 159 / 217
Feldstein: Econometric Criticisms
∆ log(z M ) = 0
∆ log(z H ) = e∆ log(1 τH )
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 160 / 217
Feldstein: Econometric Criticisms
Triple di¤erence that nets out di¤erential prior trends yields elasticity
<0.4 for top earners
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 161 / 217
Slemrod: Shifting vs. “Real” Responses
Looks like a supply side story but government is actually losing revenue
at the corporate tax level
Shifting across tax bases not taken into account in Feldstein e¢ ciency
cost calculations
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 162 / 217
18%
Wages S-Corp. Partner. Sole P. Dividends Interest Other
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
FIGURE 7
The Top 1% Income Share and Composition, 1960-2000
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 163 / 217
Goolsbee: Intertemporal Shifting
Regression speci…cation:
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 164 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 165 / 217
Goolsbee 2000
Concludes that long run e¤ect is 20x smaller than substitution e¤ect
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 166 / 217
Gruber and Saez 2002
First study to examine taxable income responses for general
population, not just top earners
Use data from 1979-1991 on all tax changes available rather than a
single reform
Simulated instruments methodology
Isolates changes in laws (ft ) as the only source of variation in tax rates
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 167 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 168 / 217
Gruber and Saez: Results
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 169 / 217
Evidence from Danish Tax Reforms
Observed Earnings Responses to Small Tax Reforms
1
% Residual Change in Wage Earnings
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-4 -2 0 2 4 6
% Residual Change in Net-of-Tax Wage Rate ∆log(1-t)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 170 / 217
Imbens et al. 2001: Income E¤ects
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 171 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 172 / 217
Taxable Income Literature: Summary
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 173 / 217
Macro Evidence
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 174 / 217
Prescott 2004
Uses data on hours worked by country in 1970 and 1995 for 7 OECD
countries
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 177 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 178 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 179 / 217
Reconciling Micro and Macro Estimates
L = Nh
d log L d log N d log h d log h
= + >
d (1 τ ) d (1 τ ) d (1 τ ) d (1 τ )
3 Optimization frictions: short run vs. long run [Chetty 2009]
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 180 / 217
Optimization Frictions
φi = log xi (p ) log xi (p )
log xi (p ) = α ε log p + νi + φi
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 187 / 217
Optimization Frictions
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 188 / 217
Construction of Choice Set
151
150
Np t x D Ýp t Þ
149
148
147
Utility u( xt )
146
145
144
143
142
141
X Ý p t , NÞ
140
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 189 / 217
Identification with Optimization Frictions
3.0
ε=1
2.8
log demand (log xt)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 190 / 217
Identification with Optimization Frictions
3.0
ε=1
2.8
log demand (log xt)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 191 / 217
Identification with Optimization Frictions
3.0
ε=1
2.8
log demand (log xt)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 192 / 217
Identification with Optimization Frictions
3.0
ε=1
2.8
log demand (log xt)
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 193 / 217
Bounds on Elasticities
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 194 / 217
Calculation of Bounds on Structural Elasticity
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
log demand (log xt)
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 195 / 217
a) Upper Bound on Structural Elasticity
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
log demand (log xt)
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 196 / 217
b) Lower Bound on Structural Elasticity
3.6
3.4
3.2
3
log demand (log xt)
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
1.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 197 / 217
Bounds on Elasticity with Optimization Frictions
4δ 4δ
[bε + (1 ρ),bε + (1 + ρ)]
(∆ log p )2 (∆ log p )2
1 bε
where ρ = (1 + (∆ log p )2 )1/2
2δ
Maps an observed elasticity ε̂, size of price change ∆ log p, and degree
of optimization frictions δ to bounds on ε.
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 198 / 217
Application to Taxation and Labor Supply
Assume δ = 1%
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 199 / 217
Bounds on Intensive-Margin Labor Supply Elasticities with δ=1%
Study P! ∆log(1-τ) PU PL
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1. MaCurdy (1981) 0.15 0.12 0.00 5.63
2. Eissa and Hoynes (1998) 0.14 0.11 0.00 6.56
Hours
3. Blundell, Duncan, and Meghir (1998) 0.14 0.19 0.01 2.54
Elasticities
4. Ziliak and Kniesner (1999) 0.15 0.32 0.02 1.05
5. Bianchi, Gudmundson, and Zoega (2001) 0.29 0.43 0.09 0.91
6. Gruber and Saez (2002) 0.14 0.13 0.00 5.02
7. Saez (2004) 0.09 0.23 0.00 1.75
Taxable 8. Chetty et al. (2009) 0.03 0.30 0.00 0.95
Income 9. Chetty et al. (2009) 0.00 0.10 0.00 8.00
Elasticities 10. Gelber (2009) 0.25 0.71 0.12 0.54
11. Kleven and Schultz (2009) 0.01 0.30 0.00 0.91
12. Saez (2009) 0.00 0.34 0.00 0.70
13. Feldstein (1995) 1.04 0.26 0.37 2.89
14. Auten and Carroll (1999) 0.66 0.26 0.19 2.32
Top Income
15. Goolsbee (1999) 1.00 0.37 0.47 2.14
Elasticities
16. Saez (2004) 0.50 0.41 0.20 1.28
17. Kopczuk (2009) 1.07 0.21 0.31 3.64
18. Prescott (2004) 1.18 0.24 0.42 3.34
Macro/Trend
19. Davis and Henrekson (2005) 0.39 0.80 0.23 0.69
-Based
20. Blau and Kahn (2007) 0.56 0.16 0.07 4.33
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 200 / 217
Bounds on Intensive-Margin Labor Supply Elasticities with δ=1%
4.0
3.5
2.5
Elasticity
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 201 / 217
Bounds on Intensive-Margin Labor Supply Elasticities with δ=1%
4.0
Kopczuk (2009)
No disjoint sets: δ=1% reconciles all estimates
3.5 Prescott (2004)
2.0
0.0
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 202 / 217
Bounds on Intensive-Margin Labor Supply Elasticities with δ=1%
4.0
Kopczuk (2009)
3.5 Prescott (2004) Unified Bounds: (0.47,0.54)
2.0
0.0
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 203 / 217
Information and Salience in Income Taxation
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 204 / 217
Chetty and Saez 2009: Experimental Design
119 H&R Block o¢ ces in Chicago metro area; 43,000 EITC clients
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 205 / 217
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 206 / 217
Year 2 Earnings Distributions: 1 Dep., Clients of Complying Tax Preparers
Earnings Density
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 207 / 217
Self-Employed Clients of Complying Tax Professionals: 1 Dependent
Earnings Density
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 208 / 217
Year 2 Wage Earnings Distributions: Complying Tax Preparers, 1 Dependent
Earnings Density
0
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 209 / 217
Calibration: Magnitude of Information E¤ects
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 210 / 217
Labor Supply Elasticities: Implications for Preferences
Labor supply elasticities central for tax policy because they determine
e¢ ciency costs
u (c ) ψ (l )
wl εl ,y
γ= (1 + )
y εl c ,w
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 214 / 217
uc ,ul
Case A: γ < 1 -ul(w0l,l)
w0uc(w0l,l) -ul range with
w1uc(w1l,l)
complementarity
w1uc(w1l,l)
Case B: γ > 1
lB l0 lA l
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 215 / 217
Labor Supply Elasticities and Implied Coefficients of Relative Risk Aversion
Income Compensated γ γ
Study Sample Identification Elasticity Wage Elasticity Additive ∆c/c=0.15
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
A. Hours
B. Participation
Eissa and Hoynes (1998) Married Men, Inc < 30K EITC Expansions -0.008 0.033 0.44 0.48
Married Women, Inc < 30K EITC Expansions -0.038 0.288 0.15 0.30
Average 0.29 0.39
C. Earned Income
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 216 / 217
Chetty 2006: Results
wl εl ,y
Formula γ = (1 + y ) εl c ,w useful in tax, insurance, and other
applications
Public Economics Lectures ()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply 217 / 217
Public Economics Lectures
Part 6: Social Insurance
Harvard University
Fall 2009
2 Unemployment Insurance
3 Workers’Compensation
4 Disability Insurance
5 Health Insurance
Social
Health Security Income
0.4% 3.6% Security
5%
Health
National 9.4%
Defense
20.7% Social
Other Security
21.6% 20.7%
National Defense
69.4% Other Income
34.8% Security
14.5%
1953 2008
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government outlays by function
% of Central % of Total
Government Government
% of GDP Expenditures Expenditures
120
100
Net replacement rate (%)
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Time (months)
Generate new distortions as you …x the problem you set out to solve
–> second-best solution
Key paper: Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976); see MWG Ch. 13 for a
good review
In good state (state 1), income is E1 for both types; in bad state,
income is E2 < E1 .
Vi ( α ) = ( 1 p i ) u ( E1 α 1 ) + p i u ( E2 + α 2 )
De…nition
An equilibrium is de…ned by a set of insurance contracts such that
(1) individuals optimize: both types cannot …nd a better contract than the
ones they chose
(2) …rms optimize: all …rms earn zero pro…ts
1 pi
Plugging in α2 = pi α1 , each type solves
1 pi
max(1 pi ) u ( w α1 ) + pi u (w + α1 ).
α1 pi
Solution
1 pi
Set MRS12 = pi , i.e. u 0 (c1 ) = u 0 (c2 ), i.e. full insurance
With contracts above, all the high risk types buy the low risk’s
contract and insurer goes out of business
1 p
Zero-pro…t condition requires α2 = p α1 but p > pL .
Creates an opportunity for a new insurer to enter and “pick o¤” low
risk types by o¤ering slightly less insurance at a better price: higher
c1 , lower c2
Intuition: in any sep. eq., both types are getting actuarially fair
insurance because of the zero-pro…ts condition
For H, no cost to …rm in providing full ins. (worst that can happen is
that L will join the pool, raising pro…ts)
But for L, full ins. would create an incentive for H to buy this
(cheaper) policy, forcing …rm into negative pro…ts
E1 = 100, E2 = 0
p 1 3
u (c ) = c, pL = , pH = , f = 10%
4 4
In candidate separating eq., type H gets perfect insurance:
r
1
EUH = u (100(1 pH )) = 100 =5
4
Solving gives αL1 = $3.85, αL2 = $11.55 – nowhere near full insurance
for low risk type.
Because there are relatively few high risk types, L types bene…t from
pooling with them and getting full insurance coverage.
What tool does the govt. have that private sector does not? Ability
to mandate
Are those who buy more insurance more likely to …le claims?
With such bu¤er stocks, still no need for large social safety nets to
insure against temporary shocks such as unemployment
Suggests 1st Welfare thm also does not hold due to individual failures
to optimize
Must take this distortion into account to …nd optimal level of social
insurance
Start with UI: approx. $40 bn/yr. paid to people who get laid o¤
Potential bene…ts
Potential distortions:
(0.5 )w
1970: No tax ) r = (1 .18 .05 .07 )w = 72%
Incentives worse for some subgroups: secondary income earner faces
MTR of 50% ) r = 1.3
362 400
300
Weekly Benefits ($)
200
100
Static model with two states: high (employed) and low (unemployed)
Let wh denote the individual’s income in the high state and wl < wh
income in the low state
e t (b ) = (1 e) b
eu (A + wh t (b )) + (1 e )u (A + wl + b ) ψ (e )
max e (A + wh t ) + (1 e )u (A + wl + b ) ψ (e )
b,e
1 e
s.t. t = b
e
max eu (A + wh t ) + (1 e )u (A + wl + b ) ψ (e )
e
max V (b, t )
b,t
s.t. e (b )t = (1 e (b ))b
Problem
Optimal Social Insurance
max V (b, t (b ))
b
s.t. e (b )t (b ) = (1 e (b ))b
e (b ) = arg max e u (A + wh t ) + (1 e ) u (A + wl + b ) ψ (e )
e
dV /db (b ) = 0
V (b ) = max eu (A + wh t (b )) + (1 e )u (A + wl + b ) ψ (e )
e
dV (b ) dt 0
= (1 e ) u 0 ( cl ) eu (ch )
db db
∂e
Key: can neglect ∂b terms
dV (b ) dt 0
= (1 e ) u 0 ( cl ) eu (ch )
db db
∂e
+ [(u (ch ) u ( cl ) ψ0 (e )]
∂b
u ( ch ) u ( cl ) = ψ 0 ( e )
V (b ) = max eu (A + wh t (b ))
e,H
+(1 e )[u (A + wl + b + H ) g (H )] ψ (e )
dV (b )
Formula derived for db is una¤ected by ability to move home:
dV (b ) dt 0
= (1 e ) u 0 ( cl ) eu (ch )
db db
where cl is measured in the data as including home consumption (H)
u 0 ( cl ) u 0 ( c h ) ε
= 1 e,b
u 0 ( ch ) e
u 0 ( cl ) u 0 ( ch ) ε
0
= 1 e,b
u ( ch ) e
This equation provides an exact formula for the optimal bene…t rate
u 0 (c l ) u 0 (c h )
Implementation requires identi…cation of u 0 (c h )
u 0 (c l ) u 0 (c h )
Three ways to identify u 0 (c h )
empirically
1 Baily (1978), Gruber (1997), Chetty (2006): cons-based approach
2 Shimer and Werning (2007): reservation wages
3 Chetty (2008): moral hazard vs liquidity
u 0 ( cl ) u 0 ( ch ) u 00 (ch )(cl ch )
u 00 (c )c
De…ning coe¢ cient of relative risk aversion γ = u 0 (c )
, we can write
u 0 ( c l ) u 0 ( ch ) u 00 ∆c
ch (1)
u 0 ( ch ) u0 c
∆c
= γ
c
Gap in marginal utilities is a function of curvature of utility (risk
aversion) and consumption drop from high to low states
Theorem
The optimal unemployment bene…t level b satis…es
∆c ε1 e,b
γ (b )
c e
where
∆c ch cl
= = consumption drop during unemployment
c ch
u 00 (ch )
γ = ch = coe¢ cient of relative risk aversion
u 0 ( ch )
d log 1 e
ε1 e,b = = elast. of probability of unemp. w.r.t. bene…ts
d log b
∆c ε1 e,b
γ (b )
c e
WBAAmax
After Benefit Increase
WBABmax
Before Benefit Increase
WBAmin
E1 E2 E3 Previous Earnings
ht = αt exp( βX )
log ht = log αt + βX
d log ht
= β1 = εht ,b
d log b
Uses cross-state and time variation and uses drop in food consumption
as the LHS variable.
Gruber estimates
∆c b
= β1 + β2
c w
Finds β1 = 0.24, β2 = 0.28
Convincing evidence that ins. markets are not perfect and UI does
play a consumption smoothing role
For a $100/wk increase in UI bene…t, wives work 22 hrs less per month
In the absence of UI, wives would work 30% more during the spell than
they do now
b ε /e 1 β1
= 1 e,b ( )
w β2 γ β2
b .43/.95 1 ( .24)
= ( )
w .28 γ .28
γ 1 2 3 4 5 10
b
w 0 0.05 0.31 0.45 0.53 0.7
.05
Food and Housing Growth Rates
.025
0
-.025
-.05
-.075
-4 -2 0 2 4
dyear
.05
Food and Housing Growth Rates
.025
0
-.025
-.05
-.075
-4 -2 0 2 4
dyear
U (f , h ) = u (f ) + v (h ).
γ 1 2 3 4 5 10
b
w 0 0.05 0.31 0.45 0.53 0.7
Since γ and ∆cc are hard to identify, recent work has sought
alternative ways of calculating optimal bene…t.
Two approaches
At +1 = At + yt ct
Asset limit: At L
2 No heterogeneity
cte = ct+1e = …
st
Period t
st+1 ct+1e
1-st
ctu
1-st+1
ct+1u
Value function for agent who does not …nd a job in period t:
ψ0 (st ) = Vt (At ) U t ( At )
Liquidity and total bene…t e¤ects smaller for agents with better
consumption smoothing capacity
If agent would not use money to extend duration, infer that only takes
longer because of price subsidy (moral hazard)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Unemployed
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Unemployed
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Unemployed
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Unemployed
0 5 10 15 20
Weeks Unemployed
0 5 10 15 20
Weeks Unemployed
0 5 10 15 20
Weeks Unemployed
Welfare gain from raising bene…t level by 10% from current level in
U.S. (50% wage replacement) is $5.9 bil = 0.05% of GDP
0
0 36 60
Job Tenure
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
34
33
Mean Age
32
31
30
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
NOTE--All specs are Cox hazard models that include cubic polynomials with
interactions with sevpay and/or extended benefit dummy.
u (w̄0 t ) = W (b )
Government’s problem is
It follows that
dW d w̄0 dt
=
db db db
d w̄0 1 e 1
= (1 + ε1 e,b )
db e e
d w̄ 0
Implement formula using estimates of db reported by Feldstein and
Poterba (1984)
Find gains from raising UI bene…ts 5 times larger than Chetty (2008)
Note: all the formulas above take such match quality gains into
account via envelope conditions
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Previous Job Tenure (Months)
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months Employed in Past Five Years
.1
.05
Wage Growth
0
-.05
-.1
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months Worked in Past Five Years
12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months Worked in Past Five Years
The two could di¤er if workers transit o¤ of UI but are still jobless
.2
Unemployment Exit Hazard
.15
.1
.05
0
20 15 10 5 0
Weeks of Eligibility Left
Source: Meyer 1990
.2 .15
Weekly Hazard Rate
.05 .1 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Elapsed Since Job Loss
.2 .15
Weekly Hazard Rate
.05 .1 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Elapsed Since Job Loss
.1
Difference in Weekly Hazard UI20-UI30
.05
0
-.05
-.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
Weeks Elapsed Since Job Loss
10
8
UI Tax Rate (%)
6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Benefit Ratio (100*UI Benefits Paid/Payroll)
Washington’
s UI Tax Schedule Perfect Experience Rating
Source: Washington State Joint Legislative Task Force on Unemployment Insurance Benefit Equity 2005
First observation: more than half of …rms are above the max rate or
below the min rate
Feldstein does not directly show that imperfect exp rating is to blame
for more temp layo¤s b/c not using variation in experience rating itself
Variation in tax rate on …rms from min/max thresholds for exp rating
Finds that imperfect subsidization accounts for 31% of all temp layo¤
unemployment, a very large e¤ect
See Krueger and Meyer (2002) for review of more recent studies,
which …nd similar results but smaller magnitudes
Calculations imply that only 1/3 of spells will occur with negative
balances, so most people still have good incentives while unemployed.
Total tax payments are less than half what they are in current system.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Present Value Gain: -$95 +$22 -$67 +$94 +$468
Takeup low in many govt. programs. (UI, food stamps, EITC, etc.)
Provision of UI raises availability of risky jobs (e.g. tech jobs) and can
raise e¢ ciency in equilibrium
So if workers are risk averse, tradeo¤ may not be very hard – both
raise output and insure them better.
Classic reference is Shavell and Weiss (1979), who solved for optimal
path of bene…ts in a 3 period model.
Recent literature that is very active in this area: “new dynamic public
…nance” – optimal path of unemployment and disability programs.
Shimer and Werning (2008) – with perfect liquidity and CARA utility,
optimal bene…t path is ‡at
We do not have a model consistent with the data that can explain
both savings behavior pre-unemployment and search behavior
post-unemployment
Card & McCall (1994): test if weekend injuries lead to Monday e¤ect.
Other explantations:
Duration of injuries
Summers (1989):
If workers value bene…ts at cost, they bear the full incidence
If they do not value it, has same e¤ect and DWL as a tax
Gruber-Krueger (1991):
85% of WC cost is shifted to workers, no signi…cant employment e¤ect
Fishback-Kantor (1995):
Find 100% shift to workers’wages in initial implementation of prog
Suggests that bene…ts valued close to cost
9
8
7
6
Percent
5
4
3
2
1
0
One perspective on the rise: moral hazard from a lenient system that
leads to ine¢ ciency
To max social welfare, not desirable for those with high ψi to work.
Parsons (1980)
OLS regression:
LFPi = α + βDIrepratei + εi
where DIreprate is calculated using wage in 1966
Potential solution: “control” for wage on RHS. Does not make sense.
Implies that at most 1/3 of the trend in male LFP decline can be
explained by shift to DI
Public Economics Lectures () Part 6: Social Insurance 152 / 207
Public Economics Lectures () Part 6: Social Insurance 153 / 207
Gruber 2000
Ex: if car industry declines over a …ve year period, assign a negative
employment shock to Michigan
6
MS
4
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
AL AR
WV GA LA
2 KY FL
MT MO AZ
NCTN ME
MA
MISC
OK
0 OHRI
PA VT CT IL TXDE NY CA NV
NJ VA MD
IN IA OR CO NM
MN KS WA
WI NE
SD ND
-2 UT
NH
WY ID HI
AK
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.094, se = 0.062, t = -1.51
-8
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
6
MS
4
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
KY AR LA
WV
2 GA
OK MI MT
ME TX
MO SC AL NM
IN NC FL
SD KS TN WA RI
0 OH
PA DE IL VA CO
MA
NY
OR
CAAZ NV
WY IA VT WI MD
ND NE MN CT NJ ID HI
NH AK
-2 UT
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.262, se = 0.067, t = -3.90
-8
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
6 MS
WV KY
4 AR
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
AL LA
2 SC TNNC MO
IA
ME MA NM
INGA TX CO FL
WA OR MI MT
0 NH OKAZ NV
DE NY
SD
OH WIIL MN
PA CA ID
VT VA UT
NJ RI MD
KS WY NE ND
-2 CT HI
AK
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.343, se = 0.130, t = -2.64
-8
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
8 MS
6
AR
WV
4 AL
KY
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
SC NC
ME TN
2 OK MO DE FL RI
GA NM
LA MT IN
KS
PA VTNY MI MA
0 WY SD
NV
NEVA AZ
IDOR OH
CTNH
TX IL
IAHI CACO
WA MDNJ
WI
AK MN
-2 ND UT
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.849, se = 0.164 t = -5.18
-8
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
Trace decline in LFP to the rise in DI over the past two decades via:
12.5%
$6000
10% $5000
$4000
7.5%
$3000
5%
$2000
2.5%
$1000
0% $0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
United States
Switzerland
France
Germany
Austria
Health Care Spending in OECD Nations in 2005
Belgium
Portugal
Canada
Netherlands
Denmark
Iceland
Greece
Sweden
Norway
()
Ireland
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
100
Public Share of Total Health Spending (%)
90
Norway
80
Austria
70
60
50
United States
40
30
20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
People % of
(millions) Population
Note: Numbers do not sum to 100% because some people have multiple
coverage. Source: Gruber 2007
As you get richer, want to live longer, not consume more goods
because marginal utility of consumption declines
More sushi dinners, not more sushi per dinner
Two options for knee surgery: invasive, long recovery [old] vs.
arthroscopic [new]. New technology more expensive.
2. Price Distortions
3. Regulatory Distortions
Supply of physicians
2. Consumer myopia
Black child born in DC has lower chance of reaching …rst birthday than
one born in Jamaica.
Literature estimates this using many methods (Aldy and Viscusi 2003)
Contingent valuation.
Wage premia for risky jobs.
Price of smoke detectors.
E.g. cancer more prevalent even though progress has been made in
…ghting cancer (Honore and Lleras-Muney 2007)
Begin with a pure demand side model and then consider supply side.
π = insurance premium
x = non-medical consumption
Assume H is concave in m
A B
$200 S=MC
C
$100
D
Q1 Q2 Number of
Doctor’
s Visits
Randomly assigned into 14 di¤erent ins. plans that varied in copay rate
Elasticity of about 0.1 for inpatient care, 0.2 for outpatient care
Public Economics Lectures () Part 6: Social Insurance 187 / 207
Public Economics Lectures () Part 6: Social Insurance 188 / 207
Finkelstein 2006
P = α + βc
2 Salary [α > 0, β = 1]: practice costs paid for as well as marginal costs
of treatment.
Doctors solve
max θ (α + βc (q ) c (q )) + (1 θ )q
q
max q c (q )
q
c 0 (q ) = 1
So, in order to get the doctor to choose the social optimum, need to
set β such that q D = q .
1 θ
1 = c 0 (q ) = c 0 (q D ) =
θ (1 β)
1
) β =2
θ
1
β =2
θ
Optimal degree of incentive pay is increasing in θ.
He will naturally get bene…ts from taking care of them and will
over-provide if he is paid for it too.
Greater utilization: early prenatal care visits rose by more than 50%.
Harvard University
Fall 2009
2 Samuelson Rule
3 Lindahl Pricing
∑ Xh X
h
Xh X 8h
Person 1’
s
Consumption
Person 2’
s Consumption
Person 1’
s
Consumption
Person 2’
s Consumption
Utility of h is U h = U h (X h , G h )
Production possibility F (X , G ) = 0
max ∑ βh U h (X h , G h )
h
s.t. F (∑ X h , ∑ G h ) 0 [λ]
h h
[X h ] : βh UXh = λFX
[G h ] : βh UGh = λFG
UGh F
h
= G
UX FX
h
MRSGX = MRTGX 8h
Utility of h is U h = U h (X h , G )
max ∑ βh U h (X h , G )
h
s.t. F (∑ X h , ∑ G h ) 0 [λ]
h h
FOC’s:
[X h ] : βh UXh = λFX
[G ] : ∑ βh UGh = λFG
h
Uh FG
∑[ UGh ] = FX
h X
∑ MRSGX
h
= MRTGX
h
Individual h solves
max U h (X h , G 1 + .. + G h + .. + G H )
s.t. X h + G h = Y h .
U h (Y h τh G , G )
Demand function of G h = G h (τ h , Y h )
∑ τh = 1
h
Uh
∑[ UGh ] = ∑ τh = 1
h X h
1
With identical individuals, simply set tax τ = H and ask individuals
to voluntarily contribute to G
Individual
Preference
Ordering 1 2 3
1st H M L
2nd M L H
3rd L H M
Only social choice rule that satis…es (a) Pareto E¢ ciency and (b)
Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives is dictatorship.
1 G unidimensional
3
Preference Ordering (Utility)
2.5
2
1.5
1
Equilibrium:
Median Pref.
School Spending
Suppose govt has decided to levy a tax and provide public goods
based on some rule
Individual h solves:
max U h (Xh , Gh + G h )
X h ,G h
s.t. Xh + Gh = Yh
max U (X h , Gh + G h + T)
h h h
s.t. X + G = Y th
max U (X h , Zh + Z h)
h h h
s.t. X + Z = Y
2 Lab experiments
Lab experiments may not capture important motives for giving: warm
glow, prestige
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 39 / 138
Kingma 1989
D i = β 0 + β 1 Gi + Xi γ + e i
Di = individual contribution
Gi = government support
Xi = set of controls: individual income, individual education, age,
price (tax bracket).
Only one group free-rode a lot: 1st year econ graduate students (20%
donation rate).
Isaac, McCue, and Plott (1985): when the game is repeated with
same set of players, public good contribution levels fall over time.
Payo¤s Uh = (7 Gh ) 1 αG α
Total costs of providing public good are higher than its production
costs when it is …nanced by distortionary taxation
U (c, l, G ) = c l k +1 / (k + 1 ) + v (G )
Implies that
w (1 τ) = l k
) l = w e (1 τ )e
where e = 1/k is the elasticity of labor supply with respect to the
net-of-tax rate 1 τ
W = wl (1 τ) R l k +1 / (k + 1 ) + v (G )
= wl (1 τ) R l k +1 /(k + 1) + v (wl τ + R )
∂W
= wl + wlv 0 (G ) + w τv 0 (G )∂l /∂τ
∂τ
∂W
= w τv 0 (G )∂l /∂τ
∂τ
∂W
Therefore ∂τ (τ ) = 0 ) τ = 0
τ
Added term 1 τe in formula relative to Samuelson rule
E.g. if public good bene…ts all equally, then simply raise lump sum tax
and distributional problem is unchanged
More generally, changes in optimal non-linear tax system will have
second-order e¤ects on welfare ! can be ignored.
E.g. in the U.S., charitable contributions are tax deductible ($20 bil
tax expenditure).
Theoretical questions:
Empirical questions:
How sensitive is charitable giving w.r.t. tax subsidies?
Where does the money end up going (social value)?
U (c, g ) s.t. c + g = y τ (y θg )
1 θτ ∂g
β = = price elasticity of charitable giving
g ∂(1 θτ )
y ∂g
γ = = income elasticity of charitable giving
g ∂y
First consider case where govt uses tax revenue to fund same PG as
individual.
P = τ (y θg ) + g = k + (1 θτ )g
P = k + (1 θτ )g
dP dg 1 θτ
= τg + g
dθ dθ g
dg 1 θτ
= τg τg
d (1 θτ ) g
= τg βτg
= τg (1 + β)
dP
Therefore β < 1 implies dθ > 0.
Clearly desirable to subsidize at least up to the point where β(θ ) = 1.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 73 / 138
Optimal Subsidies for Charity (Saez 2004)
With ‡at social welfare weights, optimal tax rate tG for charitable
good G satis…es
λ + tG 1
=
1 + tG β
Generalizes Ramsey inverse-elasticity rule by allowing λ > 0
General speci…cation:
Uses ten year tax return panel (1979-1988) and …ts DD-type models.
2 Correcting Externalities
5 Empirical Applications
u (x ) + y d P (x )
Social welfare is
W = u (x ) + Z c (x ) d x
max u (x ) + Z px
Demand satis…es
u 0 (x D ) = p
Supply satis…es
c 0 (x S ) = p
PMB equals PMC in equilibrium:
u 0 (x D ) = c 0 (x S )
SMC=PMC+MD
Price
S=PMC
P*
PM
MD
D = PMB = SMB
0 Q* QM Quantity
dW = u 0 (x )∆x c 0 (x )∆x d ∆x
= d ∆x > 0 if ∆x < 0
Price
S=PMC=SMC
PM
MD
P*
D = PMB
SMB=PMB-MD
0 Q* QM Quantity
3 Regulation
4 Permits (cap-and-trade)
1 Cost of bargaining
Ex: air pollution – would require millions of agents to coordinate and
bargain
Impose tax t = MD (Q )
Practical limitations:
SMC=PMC+MD
Price S=PMC+t
S=PMC
$t
P*
P2
P1
D = PMB = SMB
0 Q* Q2 Q1 Quantity
Disadvantages:
Advantages:
1 Dynamics: no incentive to
1 Ease of enforcement innovate
SMBQ
Q* Pollution Reduction
Social optimum:
max B (Q ) C (Q )
First order condition:
C 0 (Q ) = B 0 (Q )
With no uncertainty, can obtain optimum with either quantity or price
policy.
Marginal cost lies between MCLB and MCUB , with mean value given
by MCmean .
maxfEθ B (Q ) C (Q, θ ), Eθ B (Q (p )) C (Q (p ), θ )g
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 100 / 138
Quantity Regulation Price Regulation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 101 / 138
Price Band vs. Quantity Band with Steep MB
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 102 / 138
MB Flat, Quantity Regulation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 103 / 138
MB Flat, Price Regulation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 104 / 138
Quantity regulation Price Regulation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 105 / 138
Weitzman: Uncertainty about Bene…ts
For a given p, the government knows the Q that will result exactly
since p = C 0 (Q ).
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 106 / 138
Optimal Second-Best Taxation with Externalities
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 107 / 138
Sandmo 1975: Setup
q1 x1 + .. + qN xN wl + Z
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 108 / 138
Sandmo 1975: Setup
max W (q ) = v (q ) d (q )
q
s.t. ∑ τi xi R
Analogous to Ramsey tax problem, but here SWF di¤ers from private
sector objective
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 109 / 138
Sandmo 1975
Let θ = marginal social welfare gain from $1 of a lump sum tax and
λ = marginal value of relaxing agent’s budget constraint
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 110 / 138
Sandmo 1975: Additivity Result
Main result: can express optimal tax rate as Ramsey rate plus
Pigouvian correction.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 111 / 138
Sandmo 1975: Additivity Result
Ramsey tax will a¤ect level of cons, which a¤ects optimal Pigouvian tax
Conversely, Pigouvian tax will a¤ect optimal Ramsey tax rate
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 112 / 138
Double Dividend Debate
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 113 / 138
Double Dividend Debate
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 114 / 138
Externalities: Empirical Measurement
Two approaches
Contingent valuation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 115 / 138
Edlin and Karaca-Mandic 2006
Accident externalities from driving automobiles.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 116 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 117 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 118 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 119 / 138
Edlin and Karaca-Mandic 2006
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 120 / 138
Brookshire et al. 1982
Pi = α + Pollutioni + Xi β + ei
Problems
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 121 / 138
Chay and Greenstone 2005
Also study home prices but use Clean Air Act as an exogenous change
in pollution.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 122 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 123 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 124 / 138
Chay and Greenstone 2005
Clean air act increased house values by $45 bil (5%) in treated
counties
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 125 / 138
Glaeser and Luttmer 2003
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 126 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 127 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 128 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 129 / 138
Glaeser and Luttmer 2003
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 130 / 138
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 131 / 138
Contingent Valuation
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 132 / 138
Diamond and Hausman 1994
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 133 / 138
Behavioral Economics Applications: Internalities
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 134 / 138
Becker and Murphy 1988
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 135 / 138
Gruber and Koszegi 2004
Taxes reduce demand for each self; can partly correct the internality.
Public Economics Lectures () Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities 136 / 138
Bernheim and Rangel 2004
Model of “cue-triggered” addiction. Two selves: