Western Carolina University

Iowa Senate Race

Profile A Race Paper

Madeline King

Dr. Cooper

PSC 315-01

28 November 2020
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King
The Iowa Senate race was ranked as the 5th most competitive senate race in the nation by

Bloomberg Government.1 This was between the incumbent, Republican Joni Ernst Democratic

competitor Theresa Greenfield, Libertarian Rick Stewart, and Independent Suzanne Herzog. In

the end, Senator Ernst won Iowa by 51.8%, while Greenfield gained 45.1%, Stewart 2.2%, and

Herzog 0.8%.2 Since America’s democracy runs on a two-party system and the Republican and

Democratic candidates were the frontrunners in this race, this paper will mainly cover those two

candidates.

Joni Ernst grew up in Montgomery County on her parent’s farm. She attended Iowa State

University where she majored in Psychology as well as Columbus State University where she

obtained her Master’s in Public Administration.3 Ernst has served as a United States Senator for

five years. She began her time as a Senator in 2015 when she won her party’s nomination and the

general election from Iowa. Ernst served in the military for 23 years before running for Senate.

When she won in 2015, she became the first woman from Iowa to be elected to a federal office

as well as being the first female, combat veteran to serve as a Senator. 4 As a Senator, Ernst

served on five committees, including Armed forces, Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry,

Environment and Public works, Judiciary, and Small Businesses and Entrepreneurship. 5

Theresa Greenfield was raised on her family’s farm with her four siblings. Greenfield

attended Minnesota State University where she earned a degree in Design and Human

Development.6 After her graduation, Greenfield worked as an urban planner and then went on to

1
https://about.bgov.com/12-most-competitive-2020-senate-races/#iowa
2
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-senate-IA-17247/
3
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joni-Ernst
4
https://www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/meet-joni
5
https://www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/meet-joni
6
https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/directory/theresa-greenfield/
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lead Rottlund Homes’ Iowa division.7 In 2012, she became the president of Colby Interests

which is a real estate and development company in Des Moines. 8

It is imperative that a Senator know who she or he is representing. For Ernst, it is

important to know who makes up the Hawkeye State. Iowa tends to lean to the Red side of the

scale when it comes to political party affiliations. However, this varies a little bit throughout the

state’s age range. In a graph by Pewforum, it showed that 18-29 year-olds and minority groups

leaned to the left while 30-60+ year-olds leaned to the right.9 This graph also showed that 56% of

men identified as Republican while 55% of women identified as Democrat.10 With around 3

million people to account for, about 34% of Iowa’s population are over 30 years old. Most

Iowans are in their mid to late 30’s which means that whoever represents the beautiful state will

need to take that into account when writing legislation. 11

It is important to note that 30 year-olds make up Iowa’s population because whatever

work-related legislation that is passed or denied directly affects them. The 30 year-old-group is

typically the working group since most of them are settled into their careers. Because this is the

case, legislation involving employee benefits or work authorizations is going to impact the vast

majority of Senator Ernst's constituents.

Common jobs in Iowa are soil and plant scientists, septic tank services, grounds

maintenance, and farm equipment mechanics.12 Since this is the case, Iowa’s senator must know

that agriculture is important to their constituents because without it they would not have the job

or life they are used to and need to survive. Iowa’s median household income is around

7
https://ballotpedia.org/Theresa_Greenfield
8
https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/directory/theresa-greenfield/
9
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/iowa/party-affiliation/
10
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/state/iowa/party-affiliation/
11
https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/programs/2016-11/Iowa.pdf
12
http://www.seniorjobbank.org/database/Iowa/Iowa.html
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$58,580.13 This is also an important factor to consider when representing the state because it tells

the legislator what they need to be aware of when reviewing legislation that deals with finances

and taxation.

With the state leaning red it is no surprise that the predictions fell in favor of Senator

Ernst. The Economist predicted that Trump would win 50.2% of Iowas’ popular vote and Biden

would win 49.8%. 14 Trump ended up winning 53.2% of Iowa while Biden won 45%. The polls

also determined this senate race to be a close one and it was. Ernst took 864,997 (52%) votes

while Greenfield took 754,859 (45%).15 ThirtyFiveEight projected Ernst to win 58% and

Greenfield to win 42% of Iowa. 16 While these polls were not spot on, they did predict the right

winner, just not the right margins. However, this election was not like any other Americans today

had seen. Not only did this election have a margin of error, but it allowed it to play out.

Even though Ernst was favored to win the Senate race, it was not promised. This race was

one of the closest Senate races this election cycle. Ernst was only favored to win by a small

margin. Ernst ended up pulling a win by 6% or 110,138 of Iowa’s votes. In a state that is home

to roughly 3 million people, winning by 100,000 votes does not put a candidate in a comfortable

seat on election night. Ernst was able to pull off a victory for the second year in a row and will

begin her second term as Iowa’s Senator in January.

The predictions were as close to perfect as they could be. The polls showed Ernst

winning by a slim margin and that is exactly what happened. These prediction polls prepared

both candidates for an uncomfortable ride on the Electoral College on November 3rd as they

watched the votes roll in. Traditionally a swing state, Iowa was no different this year than in
13
https://www.incomebyzipcode.com/iowa#:~:text=Median%20Household%20Income%3A
%20%2458%2C580.,make%20over%20%24200%2C000%20a%20year.
14
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/iowa
15
https://www.weareiowa.com/article/news/politics/elections/iowa-senate-race-2020-live-results-joni-ernst-
theresa-greenfield/524-255f765a-6253-4204-bf13-956c194f08bc
16
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/
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years passed. Although it was predicted the state would turn red, there was always a chance it

could switch blue as some states do in this election. 17

To win any election a candidate must have a strong campaign strategy. In this section, we

will analyze each candidate and how well it paid off for them. Iowa ranked 3rd in the most

expensive race in the 2020 election.18 In just two weeks, the candidates spent over $16 million

combined in campaign expenses.19 Greenfield alone spent $43,766,773.76 on campaign expenses

while Ernst only spent $21,459,572.75.20 Surprisingly, this shows that the money that is spent on

the campaign does not guarantee a win. Most of Ernst’s money did not go into campaign ads but

instead went into salaries, travel expenses, consultations, and postage. Whereas Greenfield paid

most of her money to refunds, processing fees, advertisement, and volunteer and voter

outreach.21

When people think of an election, it is normal to think of the commercials that air on

television and the ads that are sent in the mail, but it is interesting to see that not all of the money

that is fundraised or donated goes into campaign ads all of the time. It is just as important to use

campaign finances for things that are going to be useful every day for the campaign and not just

for a 30-second ad that will only air a few times. Iowa spent $13.3 million on campaign ads

following only Maine who spent $25.6 million and North Carolina who spent $20.9.22

Ernst traveled more than Greenfield did which would account for the more expenditure

on travel money, but Greenfield aired more ads. Despite the large amounts of spending each
17
https://www.270towin.com/states/Iowa
18
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-
political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1215641#blogHeader
19
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/23/iowas-u-s-senate-race-candidates-spend-
nearly-17-million-2-weeks/3742286001/
20
https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0IA00176/
21
https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?
committee_id=C00708164&two_year_transaction_period=2020&data_type=processed
22
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-data-driving-
political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1215641#blogHeader
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candidate did, neither went into the negatives. Ernst ended with $2,493,636.70 cash on hand and

Greenfield $3,772,805.11.23 The candidates appealed to their constituents in both similar and

different ways. Ernst's campaign ads were aimed at moving voters to vote, whereas Greenfield’s

ads were motivating voters to vote for her. They were similar in the fact that they appealed to

Iowan’s hearts. Ernst used her platform to go around to the different counties and check up on

her constituents to see how they were doing and what she needed to present in Washington D. C.

Greenfield tugged on heartstrings by recounting her life and the tragedies she endured, similar to

some Iowans. These campaign ads were effective since this race was so tight.

Greenfield won in Polk, Story, Cerro Gordo, Linn, Johnson, Jefferson, and Scott which

gave her 45.2% of Iowa’s votes.24 This was expected since Greenfield was predicted to win 42%.

In the counties that flipped blue, Greenfield was only able to win them by a small margin. Those

counties were never promised to either candidate since the margin was so small. The only county

that Greenfield won by a landslide was Johnson. 23.7% of Johnson county identified as non-

white or as a minority group.25 As previously stated, younger generations and minority groups in

Iowa tend to lean blue so it would make sense that this county was blue by a landslide.

As a predominately Republican state, Ernst had a good pull in most of the counties that

reported to have similar beliefs and ideologies as the candidate. Even in counties that matched

Ernst’s political ideology and affiliation, she still had to battle for the majority of votes. We saw

this play out in numerous other races during this election cycle. This is not an uncommon thing,

especially for a two-party system of government that is becoming increasingly polarized.

This race is not that different from any other race in America. Two candidates from

opposite parties, fighting one another neck and neck for a political seat of power, and one

23
https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0IA00176/
24
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/
25
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/
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coming out victorious. This is the story we have seen play out since 1776. I do not think this race

was an anomaly at all. I believe that it was an ordinary political race in a polarized America.

Because America is polarized, it is not difficult to believe that a race would be closely divided. It

is not a bad thing for a race to be close in the polls because it shows that we have a functioning

democracy. If a race only had one candidate it would not be a race first and foremost, but more

importantly, it would not be democratic. The Representative Democracy that we, as Americans,

make up is made up of closely won or lost races that define our country and who make up the

Legislative and Executive branches.

I believe the more polarized we, as a nation, become, the more we will see close races. I

believe that the more the two parties continue to move away from the center and each other, the

more we will see extreme elections. I think this election cycle was just the beginning of what we

will see more of as America continues to age. Like with anything a certain amount of something

can be fatal or beneficial. The same is true for polarization. A healthy amount of polarization is

needed if we are going to have a democracy, but too much of it and we may see the very

foundation of our institution crumble beneath party lines.

Works Cited

a.m., Natasha KoreckiNational Political Correspondent12:42, et al. “Iowa Senate Election

Results 2020: Live Map Updates: Voting by County.” POLITICO,
www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/senate/.
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acl.gov/sites/default/files/programs/2016-11/Iowa.pdf.

“Browse Disbursements.” FEC.gov, www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?

committee_id=C00708164.

Coltrain, Nick. “How Expensive Is Iowa's U.S. Senate Race? The Two Candidates Spent Nearly

$17 Million in Two Weeks Alone.” Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 23 Oct.

2020, www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/23/iowas-u-s-senate-race-

candidates-spend-nearly-17-million-2-weeks/3742286001/.

“GREENFIELD, THERESA - Candidate Overview.” FEC.gov,

www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0IA00176/.

“Income Statistics for Iowa Zip Codes.” Iowa Income Statistics - Current Census Data for Zip

Codes, www.incomebyzipcode.com/iowa.

Iowa Census

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/johnsoncountyiowa

“Iowa Presidential Election Voting History.” 270toWin.Com, www.270towin.com/states/Iowa.

“Iowa-Forecasting the US 2020 Elections.” The Economist, The Economist Newspaper,

projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president/iowa.

“Joni Ernst.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 25 Nov. 2020,

www.britannica.com/biography/Joni-Ernst.

“Meet Joni.” Meet Joni - Senator Joni Ernst, www.ernst.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/meet-joni.

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“Meet the Press Blog: Latest News, Analysis, and Data Driving the Political Discussion.”

NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 15 Apr. 2020,

www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/blog/meet-press-blog-latest-news-analysis-

data-driving-political-discussion-n988541/ncrd1215641.

NateSilver538. “2020 Senate Election Forecast.” FiveThirtyEight, 3 Nov. 2020,

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/iowa/.

“Religion in America: U.S. Religious Data, Demographics, and Statistics.” Pew Research

Center's Religion & Public Life Project, 9 Sept. 2020, www.pewforum.org/religious-

landscape-study/state/iowa/party-affiliation/.

Schaeffer, Author: Jon. “Joni Ernst Tops Theresa Greenfield, Reelected to U.S. Senate.”

Weareiowa.com, 3 Nov. 2020, www.weareiowa.com/article/news/politics/elections/iowa-

senate-race-2020-live-results-joni-ernst-theresa-greenfield/524-255f765a-6253-4204-bf13-

956c194f08bc.

Staff, Des Moines Register. “Iowa U.S. Senate Election Results: Des Moines Register.” Iowa

U.S. Senate Election Results | Des Moines Register, Des Moines Register, 17 Nov. 2020,

www.desmoinesregister.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-senate-IA-17247/.

“Theresa Greenfield -.” Archives of Women's Political Communication,

awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/directory/theresa-greenfield/.

“Theresa Greenfield -.” Archives of Women's Political Communication,

awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/directory/theresa-greenfield/.
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“Theresa Greenfield.” Ballotpedia, ballotpedia.org/Theresa_Greenfield.

Trygstad, Greg Giroux, and Kyle, et al. “12 Most Competitive 2020 Senate Races.” Bloomberg

Government, about.bgov.com/12-most-competitive-2020-senate-races/.

www.seniorjobbank.org, The SeniorJobBank! “The SeniorJobBankSM The Original Career Site

for Boomers and Seniors.” Iowa Jobs and Career Information,

www.seniorjobbank.org/database/Iowa/Iowa.html.