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 SPLIT VISION
Mystery of double
gravitational wave
THE HUNGRIEST
CATERPILLAR
Armyworms on
march across the world
ZOOM AND ENHANCE
AI learns to deblur face pictures
WEEKLY September 7–13, 2019

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This week’s issue

On the 17 Split vision

Mystery of double
cover gravitational wave

34 Healthy gut, happy brain 8 The hungriest caterpillar 5 weeks to go!

How what you eat directly Armyworms on march across Hear Liz Bonnin talk about
influences your mental health the world the problem with plastic at
our four-day festival of
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Ola Rosling on facts,
optimism and progress

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12 Seals breed on the Thames 10 Volcanic exomoons

Vol 243 No 3246

News Features
9 No ‘gay gene’ 34 Healthy gut, happy brain
Many genes shape sexuality, Interview Knowing gut bacteria shape our
each having only a small effect mood should make us all happy

15 Meet your ancestor 40 Save our soils

Early Australopith skull Biodiversity needs varied terrain
discovered at last
42 The cost of home delivery
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The leader
Mood boosters
Mental health researchers are looking to the gut for answers
“KILLS all known germs” was once an
effective advertising slogan. Now we
know this promise isn’t as desirable as
it might sound. Not all “germs” are bad.
In fact, you couldn’t survive without
help from the many microbes that live
on and within you.
A thriving microbiome isn’t just
essential for your physical health,
though. In the latest twist to this story
it turns out that microbes in your gut
also influence your mood.
These so-called psychobiotics are
intimately entwined with us from birth.
DENNIS KUNKEL MICROSCOPY/SPL
They help shape the developing human
brain, particularly the areas associated
with emotions. They also exert day-to-
day control over how we feel.
The mystery of how single-celled
organisms have an effect on our minds
from a distance is starting to be solved
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can eat yourself happier. ❚
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 News
Skinny fat cells Sperm fix Quantum X-rays Wildlife protections Robotic pilot
Why some people CRISPR corrects a Machine takes razor The big decisions Robot that can grab
stay thin no matter common cause of sharp pictures with from the CITES flight controls gets its
what they eat p10 male infertility p14 less radiation p15 summit p16 plane licence p16
NASA

Dorian’s devastation
Grand Bahama may have endured the longest pummelling ever by
the worst winds a hurricane can unleash. Michael Le Page reports
PARTS of Grand Bahama were
battered by the strongest winds
of hurricane Dorian for up to
15 hours on Monday, driving
a storm surge that inundated
most of the Caribbean island.
No land in or around the
Atlantic, and possibly worldwide,
has ever been subjected to such
powerful hurricane winds for so
long in recorded history.
By Tuesday, five deaths and
extreme damage to infrastructure
had been reported in the nearby
Abaco Islands, also part of The
Bahamas, which were struck first.
The full extent of the impact on
Grand Bahama is unlikely to
become clear for days. When New
Scientist went to press, the island
was still being hit by extreme
weather, even as Dorian weakened
from a category 5 to a category 3
hurricane and moved slowly away.
Dorian is now forecast to
move north up the US east coast.
Storm surges and heavy rain
are expected to cause extensive
damage there even if the eye of
the storm remains offshore.
The fastest winds in a hurricane
occur in the wall of the eye – the
clouds around the clear centre of
the storm – and drop off rapidly
further out. Since a hurricane
typically moves at least
15 kilometres an hour, the
strongest winds don’t usually
last long in any one place.
But Dorian isn’t only notable
as the joint strongest Atlantic
hurricane ever recorded to strike
land. It is also remarkable because
it slowed to a near halt over Grand
Bahama. This meant that parts
of the island remained in the eye
wall, with sustained wind speeds
of around 300km/h, for between
10 and 15 hours on Monday.
There is some evidence that
hurricanes are moving more
slowly due to global warming,
though what part if any this played
in Dorian’s stall isn’t yet clear.
Grand Bahama was also
inundated by a massive storm
surge of up to 7 metres, fuelled by
the intense winds. Video footage
showed the airport turned into an
inland sea and waves lapping at
the windows of houses.
Satellite images confirmed that
most of the low-lying island was
underwater on Monday. The
surge there was around 0.2 metres
higher than it would have been
without global warming – that is
how much sea level has risen due
to our carbon dioxide emissions.
It could rise by 3 metres by 2100.
Hurricanes are also expected
to intensify faster, to become
stronger overall and to dump
more rain as the world warms,
and that seems to be just what
is happening. All these factors
make storms far more damaging.
Grand Bahama may never fully
recover from the damage caused
by Dorian. Economic studies
suggest that growth and incomes
in areas hit by tropical cyclones
remain lower than they would
have been for decades after. ❚

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 7

News Special report
Agriculture
Rampage of the super pest
A crop-gobbling caterpillar known as the fall armyworm now threatens
much of the world. Can we stop it, asks Michael Marshall
THE race to get to grips with one of
the most destructive pests on the
planet is gathering pace. The fall
armyworm has ruined billions of
dollars of crops in Africa over the
past few years and is spreading
quickly. Last week, Japan agreed to
buy a huge consignment of maize
from the US, largely because of
fears its own crop will be eaten
by the pest. With the prospect of
this marauding insect reaching
Australia and even Europe before
long, scientists are now working
frantically to stop it.
The first thing you need to
know about the fall armyworm is
that it is actually a caterpillar, the
offspring of an innocuous-looking
brown moth. It was until recently
found just in South America and
southern areas of the US. The pest
is a big problem there, but natural
predators stop it from causing a
total disaster.
Its march further afield was
first noted in January 2016, when
unusual caterpillars were spotted
on maize plants in Nigeria. Over
the next six months, they were
found in three other west African
countries: São Tomé and Príncipe,
Benin and Togo. Three years on,
we still don’t know how they got
Normally found in the Americas, the fall armyworm has spread rapidly
across Africa and Asia over the past few years, devastating crops as it goes
2016
2017
2018
2019
SOURCE: FAO
8 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
to Africa. We do know that the
caterpillars eat many vital food
crops, including rice, sugar cane,
sorghum and especially maize.
They can destroy a farmer’s entire
crop in a single night.
The alarm was soon sounded
in Africa. “We got involved quite
early on,” says Roger Day at the
Centre for Agriculture and
Bioscience International (CABI)
office in Nairobi, Kenya. CABI runs
clinics offering advice to farmers.
“The caterpillars eat rice,
sugar cane and maize, and
can destroy a farmer’s
entire crop in a night”
Fall armyworm quickly became
one of the main concerns.
By August 2017, the pests had
spread to 28 countries in Africa.
In that time, Day’s team had
established that, if left unchecked,
infestations could destroy
between 21 and 53 per cent of the
annual production of maize in Bruce at Keele University, UK. which are then eaten from the
Africa’s maize-growing countries. The first is to identify crops inside when the eggs hatch. It is
That would result in an economic that are more resistant to the wasps like this that control the
loss of up to $6.2 billion. armyworms, and grow those armyworm in the Americas.
Governments and NGOs began in place of vulnerable ones. Could those wasps be imported
drawing up action plans. There The next two strategies are to quash the pest in Africa?
are four key strategies, says Toby linked. One is to grow flowering “That requires a lot of safety
plants like tick clovers alongside testing to make sure you’re not
the maize. “They release a smell introducing something that’s
that repels the moths that lay going to cause more problems,”
the eggs that develop into these says Day. His team is planning to
caterpillars,” says Bruce. The safety test one or two species in
farmer also grows “trap crops” Africa as soon as possible.
elsewhere that lure the moths This approach has worked
away from maize. Bruce’s team has before. In the 1970s, another
been trying this push-pull strategy South American pest, the cassava
in western Kenya. Early tests mealybug, was accidentally
suggest it is effective against the introduced to Africa, causing
armyworms, reducing infestations havoc. It was successfully
by an average of 83 per cent. controlled by introducing
Finally, it should be possible to a parasitoid wasp from its
unleash predators that will control home range.
the fall armyworms. The main A less risky tactic would be to
candidates are parasitoid wasps. use a parasitoid that is native to
These lay their eggs inside other Africa. Bruce’s colleagues have
animals, including caterpillars, been trying to identify such an
 Genomics

There is no such 
thing as a ‘gay gene’
Jessica Hamzelou

contain a gene that allows the THE largest ever genetic study of identify five specific genetic
plant to make an insecticide. sexual behaviour has found that variants that were associated
But these are banned in many many genes influence sexuality, with same-sex experiences to
African countries and may be each with tiny effects. a statistically significant degree.
too expensive for smallholders Previous studies have Two of these were in both men
to use anyway. “The economic identified individual genes that and women, two were specific
model is going to be very different may influence sexual orientation to men and one was specific
and I don’t know how you make it in boys and men. But these to women.
compatible with the smallholder studies have all been too small All five genes had only a small
situation,” says Melanie Bateman to pin down any genetic drivers effect and were far from being
at CABI’s office in Delémont, of sexuality. predictive of whether a person
Switzerland. Robbee Wedow at the Broad had had sex with a person of the
Another possible solution Institute of MIT and Harvard same sex. Since the team had
would be to use a pesticide. and his colleagues collected already found that a third of the
A study from researchers in data from the UK Biobank variation in sexual behaviour
Ethiopia this year looked at a range and the genetic testing firm
of commercial pesticides and
found four of them effectively
killed 90 per cent of the pests after
23andMe. Both organisations
ask the genomes’ owners
about their sexual behaviour.
477,000
Number of people in the largest
72 hours. But the UN’s Food and This gave the team genetic genetic study of sexual behaviour
Agriculture Organization says data and information on the
REUTERS/SOE ZEYA TUN

pesticides should only be part of sexual behaviour of around can be explained by a person’s
a package of measures. If used 477,000 people. genes, this suggests that there
inappropriately, they can have First, the team compared the are many other genes that
negative side effects, such as genomes of people who said contribute at a very low level.
killing parasitoid wasps. Bateman they’d had sex with people of The team says there could be
says there are better alternatives the same sex with those who thousands of them. “Our results
Fall armyworms, like such as the pesticidal oil of the reported only heterosexual really underscore that this
this one in Thailand, south Asian neem tree and behaviour. They found that a behaviour is a normal part of
love to feast on maize viruses or nematode worms that person’s genes could together human variation,” says Wedow.
specifically attack armyworms. explain around a third of “Because we have so many
insect by rearing armyworms Meanwhile, the caterpillars are whether they’d had same-sex different [genetic regions]
and watching to see what still marching. In 2018, they were experiences or not. involved, it implies that there
emerges from within them. spotted in India, then Sri Lanka, Next, the team was able to are multiple genetic ways to
However, the most promising Yemen and Myanmar. This year, end up queer,” says Jeremy
wasp appears to be Telenomus they have been confirmed in Thousands of genes Yoder at California State
remus. This species is known to China and, as of July, they are in may be involved in University Northridge. “And
target armyworms in South Japan too. Day and his colleagues driving our sexuality that’s kind of a poetic idea.” ❚
America and was being considered say Australia could be next.
for import when, in March, There is one saving grace:
researchers reported that it was the pest can’t survive freezing
already established in at least five temperatures, which should
African countries. This means it limit its spread north. But there
could be reared and released in are a few places in Europe where
large numbers without such it could overwinter and many
ZOLTAN GALANTAI/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO

stringent safety testing. others where it could live during

There are other strategies. warmer months. The one thing
One would be to use GM crops that stopping it reaching Europe at
the moment is the natural barrier
“Unchecked armyworm of the Sahara desert. “But with
infestations could destroy time it’ll spread across northern
more than half of the Africa,” says Day. “Then it’s an easy
maize grown in Africa” hop into Europe.” ❚

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 9

 News
Astronomy
Have we seen signs of
a volcanic exomoon?
Jonathan O’Callaghan
UNIVERSITY OF BERN, ILLUSTRATION: THIBAUT ROGER
PLUMES of volcanic gas spotted
near a distant planet may be
the first indirect evidence we
have seen of a moon in a different
solar system – an exomoon.
Astronomers suspect that
there are huge numbers of
exomoons out there. So far,
however, we haven’t obtained
concrete evidence for any of them,
largely because they are so small.
Apurva Oza at the University
of Bern in Switzerland and his
colleagues used the La Silla
Observatory in Chile to examine
light coming from an exoplanet
orbiting a star called WASP-49B
about 550 light years from Earth.
550
Distance from Earth to the star
WASP-49B in light years
The exoplanet has roughly half the
mass of Jupiter. The team detected
what seems to be the signature
of sodium gas around the planet.
However, the signal extends so far
into space that it probably can’t
have come from the planet’s
surface. Instead, Oza thinks the
gas may come from a volcanically
active rocky moon orbiting the
10 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
Metabolism
Fat cells are more
active in people
who stay slim
Alice Klein
SOME slim people seem able to their fat cells burn a lot of energy
eat as much as they like without through a “futile lipid cycle”,
gaining weight. It now appears says Gheldof. This means the
that they can do this because fat cells are stuck in a loop of
their fat cells burn energy breaking down and rebuilding
differently. The finding could fat molecules – a process that
lead to new obesity treatments. is powered by mitochondria.
Nele Gheldof at the Nestlé Fat cells may be smaller in
Institute of Health Sciences in these people because the futile
Switzerland and her colleagues
studied 30 men and women Four fat-
with body mass indexes (BMIs) storing cells
of 18.5 or under – classified as known as
STEVE GSCHMEISSNER/SPL
underweight – despite eating adipocytes
and exercising the same amount
as the average person.
Gheldof’s team took small
fat samples from these people’s
tummies and found that genes
Exomoons are tricky to involved in both breaking down lipid cycle builds up only a small
spot, unless they happen and making fat were unusually amount of fat before breaking
to spew volcanic gas active in their fat cells. it down again, says Gheldof,
They also found that these although further studies are
planet (arxiv.org/abs/1908.10732). fat cells were 40 per cent needed to confirm this.
This would make it reminiscent smaller than those of people In contrast, people with
of Jupiter’s moon Io, the most with a normal BMI and obesity often have faulty
volcanically active world in our contained greater numbers of mitochondria in their fat
solar system. more active mitochondria – the cells, meaning they can’t
Oza and his team say the signal energy powerhouses of cells burn energy via the futile lipid
they picked up can be explained (American Journal of Clinical cycle, says Sihem Boudina
by a flow of sodium gas from this Nutrition, doi.org/c92q). at the University of Utah.
so-called “exo-Io” streaming These findings suggest that Several groups are
into the planet’s atmosphere. some slim people are resistant investigating ways to restore
“We’re quite confident that only to putting on weight because mitochondrial activity and
an exo-Io can fit the data for this start the futile lipid cycle to
particular planet,” says Oza. Different people drive weight loss in people with
If they are right, Oza and his metabolise food in obesity, says Boudina. The new
team would have the first indirect different ways findings suggest that they are
evidence for an exomoon. Several
candidates have emerged before,
but none have stuck. Follow-up
on the right track, she says.
Cold exposure has been
shown to boost the futile lipid
observations will be needed cycle, which could explain the
to prove whether there really trend of wearing ice vests and
is a moon there. having ice baths to slim down.
“What they are suggesting here However, this cold shock
is certainly plausible, but it is not strategy works only for people
a direct proof that they have found whose mitochondrial machinery
an exomoon,” says Uri Malamud is already functioning. It won’t
at the Technion-Israel Institute have the same effect for people
SOUTH AGENCY/GETTY
of Technology. Malamud says that whose mitochondria aren’t
if the moon is confirmed, Oza’s functioning well enough for the
work could be useful for spotting cycle to be initiated in the first
other exomoons. ❚ place, says Boudina. ❚
Discovery
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k Maui and Big Island plus the lesser
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News
Wildlife

Seal pups thrive in Thames

Landmark survey finds harbour seals are breeding in estuary
Clare Wilson

THE river Thames is home to

a surprising array of wildlife –
even a breeding colony of harbour
seals. A survey by the Zoological
Society of London (ZSL) found that
138 pups were born in the
river’s estuary in 2018.
The Thames is also home
to grey seals, with a combined
seal population of about 3500.
The river’s banks are submerged
at high tide, which prevents grey
seals from breeding in the estuary.
Newborns must mature for weeks
before they can swim, so females
travel elsewhere to give birth.
Harbour seals, however, can swim
within hours of being born and slip
into the water at the first high tide.
Their numbers are “a really
good sign about the rest of the
ecosystem”, says Anna Cucknell
ZSL/TONY THOMAS

of the ZSL.
The estuary is also home to
harbour porpoises, seahorses
and two kinds of shark.  ❚

Fossils

Amber mining resumes in Myanmar

A SCIENTIFICALLY important Palaeontologists are key buyers,
amber deposit in north Myanmar publishing dozens of papers every
has been taken over by the month describing new specimens.
country’s military and is being The Kachin people have fought
exploited to line the pockets of for independence from Myanmar
the generals, a report from a since 1962. Until 2017, indigenous
local organisation has claimed. people controlled the mines. In
The amber mines in Kachin June of that year, the Myanmar
State have produced hundreds military began to oust them and
of priceless fossils dating from seize control. The offensive has
99 million years ago, including killed and displaced thousands of
the tail of a feathered dinosaur people and has been condemned
and several complete birds, lizards by the UN as a genocide.
and frogs, as well as countless The government claims it
insects and other invertebrates. acted to halt illegal mining and
As previously reported by protect the environment, but the
New Scientist (4 May, p 38), the report by the Kachin Development
fossils are mined in horrendous Networking Group (KDNG)
conditions and smuggled over says the military has resumed
KDNG
Valley, where the richest deposits
are found.
According to the KDNG, the
amber trade is worth an estimated
$1 billion a year. The group says
around 3000 displaced people
from mining villages are still
living in makeshift camps and
being denied aid by the army.
The report is based on in-depth
interviews with 21 people from the
A specimen
of red amber
from the
Kachin region
of Myanmar
region. The KDNG is calling on
the army to halt its campaign and
allow displaced people to return
home, as well as for foreign
governments and organisations
to freeze investments in Myanmar
and send humanitarian aid.
After New Scientist revealed
the horrors of the Myanmar
amber trade in May, Burmese
amber expert David Grimaldi
of the American Museum of
Natural History, New York,
called for a strict boycott of
amber from the country.
The Embassy of the Republic
of the Union of Myanmar, London,
hasn’t responded to requests
for comment.  ❚

the border into China for sale. unregulated mining in Hukawng Graham Lawton

12 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

Discovery
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18 May 2020

Explore dark & frozen 17 September 2020

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famous for its watch-making, high quality chocolate and enchanting old town.

Tour highlights include:

k Evening talks and walking seminars with
Dr Darren Price and Laura Spinney
k CERN guided tour to learn about the
groundbreaking work being carried out
k Walking tour of Geneva’s old town centre
and beautiful cruise on Lake Geneva
k Cable-car trip to the top of the Auguille du
Midi overlooking Mont Blanc
k The stunning botanical gardens
k Visit the beautiful small town of
Chamonix and then on to Mer de Glace
to witness an ice cave carved into the
glacier itself
k Trip to Geneva’s Museum of the History
of Science, which features astronomy,
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News
Artificial intelligence
AI learns to deblur faces
Method may help identify people from low-quality CCTV images
Donna Lu
“ENHANCE!” Artificial intelligence
is turning the TV crime drama
trope – in which a blurry image of
a suspect is made crisp and clear
by computer – into reality.
Vishal Patel at Johns Hopkins
University in Maryland and his
colleagues have produced an AI
that can automatically deblur
pictures of faces.
The system was developed in
collaboration with a researcher
at Adobe, a company that makes
software including photo-editing
programs. It could one day be used
to improve facial recognition on
long-distance surveillance images,
such as those taken from a drone,
says Patel. It could also be used as
a tool to automatically fix blur in
our everyday snaps.
Altering images in this way
is challenging because many
different types of blur exist
and it is difficult to determine
which kinds are present in order
to correct them. Examples
include motion blur, which
SPMEMORY/GETTY
occurs when a photo is taken
while a camera is moving or
when a person is moving but
the camera is stationary.
Genetics
CRISPR could
fix one form of
male infertility
MALE mice with a mutation that
stopped them producing sperm
have fathered offspring after a
team in China fixed their infertility
by editing their genome.
The approach, which used the
CRISPR DNA-editing technique,
could one day help many infertile
men around the world. “Most
of us think this is the future for
these men,” says Sarah Vij,
an infertility specialist at the
14 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
The team trained the AI by
providing it with thousands of
photos of people’s faces, both
clear and blurry. In each picture,
different parts of the face were
labelled, such as the eyes, nose
and mouth. Previously, AIs have
had difficulty deblurring these
kinds of features.
From this, the AI learned to
deblur features, including skin
and hair, and then combine them
Poor images may no longer
be a barrier to identifying
suspects caught on camera
Cleveland Clinic Foundation in Ohio.
There are several known genetic
mutations that prevent the stem
cells in the testes giving rise to
healthy sperm. For decades,
biologists have been exploring
ways of correcting these mutations.
In 2015, for instance, one team
showed that they could restore
the ability of mouse stem cells to
produce healthy sperm by using
CRISPR genome editing to correct
the underlying genetic mutation.
Now Xiaoyu Li’s team at the
Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong
Medical University has pushed this
work a step further by taking stem
into a final clear photograph.
The team tested the system’s
ability using 16,000 images that
had been blurred, comparing the
algorithm’s result with the
original flaw-free photo.
Its performance was assessed
using a structural similarity
index, where a score of 1 indicates
an exact match between two
images. The algorithm did
extremely well, scoring up to
0.96 (arxiv.org/abs/1907.13106).
Blur is just one of several factors
that can affect the quality of an
image, which is particularly
cells from a mouse, correcting the
mutation and implanting them back
in the same mouse. Four months
later, the mice mated with females,
and nine out of 11 fathered healthy
offspring (Stem Cell Research
& Therapy, doi.org/c9zz).
However, it is too soon to try this
in people. The biggest obstacle is
that there is no reliable way of
isolating human sperm stem cells,
says reproductive expert Geert
“Biologists have long been
seeking ways to correct
the mutations that stop
healthy sperm production”
important if a photo is being used
for crime investigation purposes.
Others include different weather
and light conditions or a person
being partially obscured by objects
or other people, says Shufan Yang
at the University of Glasgow, UK.
High-speed winds and magnetic
fields can also interfere with
cameras, she says.
“The other thing that you
see in CCTV cameras is low
resolution,” says Patel. As a
result, the images they produce
are often small and lack detail.
To counter this problem,
software that creates extra
image detail has been developed
to increase resolution.
Many ethical questions need
to be answered before such
technologies can be used as
part of criminal investigations,
given the risk that an AI could
generate a clear picture of a
suspect that is different to
their actual appearance. When
combined with inaccurate or
racially biased facial recognition
algorithms, there is a possibility a
deblurred photo could lead to the
wrong person being identified. ❚
Hamer of the University of
Amsterdam in the Netherlands.
Vij thinks using germline genome
editing – DNA changes that can be
passed on to offspring – to treat
infertility would be justified. But
the birth of many children as a result
of using CRISPR would also open
the door to other uses, she says.
“It’s a slippery slope, right?
All of a sudden you are doing
a tremendous amount of
gene-editing, creating scientifically
made babies,” Vij says. “Once you’re
able to do this, then you are able to
edit for all sorts of things.” ❚
Michael Le Page
Physics Human origins

Quantum X-ray
machine takes
Skull from one of our early
super-sharp snaps ancestors found at last
Leah Crane Michael Marshall

OUR X-ray vision has just got FOR the first time, a partial skull We may knew quite a lot about
sharper, thanks to a method of belonging to one of our most directly anamensis,” says team
imaging that uses radiation with important ancestral species has descend member Stephanie Melillo at
quantum properties. been found. It sheds light on a from the Max Planck Institute for
One problem with X-ray images crucial stage of our evolution. A.anamensis Evolutionary Anthropology

CMNH/MATTCROW
is background radiation blurring The skull was discovered in in Leipzig, Germany. “But
the picture. Conventionally, we 2016. Yohannes Haile-Selassie we didn’t have a cranium.”
have avoided that by shielding the from the Cleveland Museum According to the team’s
area or using a huge dose of X-rays. of Natural History in Ohio and analyses, our ideas about the
Now Sharon Shwartz at his colleagues were excavating “It’s a great find,” says Fred evolution of Australopithecus
Bar-Ilan University in Israel and in the Woranso-Mille area of Spoor at the Natural History now need a rethink.
his colleagues have developed a Ethiopia. One day, a local man Museum in London. Most anthropologists
method that works by firing X-rays named Ali Bereino approached The team has now identified agree that A. anamensis is the
into a diamond, which splits them Haile-Selassie with an upper the bones as being from ancestor species of A. afarensis,
jawbone. It appeared to come Australopithecus anamensis which is widely thought to have

1000
Number of times less background
from a human-like species.
Haile-Selassie accompanied
Bereino back to where he had
(Nature, doi.org/gf69hg;
doi.org/gf69hm).
Australopiths were the main
been our own ancestor. It is
both slightly older and slightly
more ape-like. However,
radiation in new X-ray images found it. “Three metres away hominins living in Africa Melillo, Haile-Selassie and their
from the upper jaw was the between 2 and 4 million years colleagues are now questioning
into two beams. Each photon in rest of the head,” he says. ago. This is several million the standard story of how one
one beam has a corresponding The team sieved through the years after our ancestors split gave rise to the other.
photon in the other beam with surrounding sediment, much from those of chimpanzees. Many believe this happened
similar quantum properties. of which was buried under Australopiths walked upright by anagenesis. “That’s when one
One beam, called the idler, is a pile of old goat faeces. This as we do, but their brains were species is evolving and gradually
sent straight towards a detector. unpleasant task yielded several smaller than ours. We know wholesale turns into another
The other, called the signal, is shone important pieces, including of several species, including species,” says Melillo. The
through the object to be imaged some of the left cheekbone. Australopithecus afarensis: transition from A. anamensis to
before hitting another detector. The skull seems to have the species to which the famous A. afarensis has been “one of the
Then, the readouts are compared. belonged to a male. Given “Lucy” fossil belonged. strongest cases for anagenesis
Because each idler photon how badly worn his teeth A. anamensis is crucial in the fossil record”, she says.
corresponds to a particular signal were, he was probably old because it is the oldest known But when the team compared
photon, it is easy to determine when he died. The ages of the Australopith species. First the new A. anamensis skull
which photons are from the surrounding rocks suggest he described in 1995, it lived about with those from other
beam and which are just lived 3.8 million years ago. 4 million years ago. “We already hominins, they concluded that
background. “The photons are a previously unidentified bone
created two by two, kind of like from 3.9 million years ago is
Noah’s ark,” says Miles Padgett from A. afarensis. This is older
at the University of Glasgow, UK. than the A. anamensis skull,
DALE OMORI, COURTESY OF THE CLEVELAND MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY

This allowed Shwartz’s team so the entire older species can’t

to make an extremely sharp image. have gradually transformed
The picture had about a thousand into the younger one.
times less noise than images Instead, they say, the
taken with a single beam of X-rays A. anamensis population must
(Physical Review X, doi.org/c9zf). have split in two, with one half
The method is also more efficient giving rise to A. afarensis and
than using regular X-rays. “If you the other hanging on as
have a better way to distinguish A. anamensis for at least
which photons are coming from 100,000 years.
the sample, you don’t have to use This skull came from Spoor says this suggestion
as many of them,” says Shwartz. an Australopithecus is probably right, but that the
“The hope in the long term is to anamensis evidence against anagenesis
use this in medical imaging.” ❚ isn’t yet conclusive. ❚

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 15

News
CITES summit
More protections for wildlife
A major conference on conservation brought both good
and bad news for species, says Adam Vaughan
ONE of the world’s largest
summits on the international
wildlife trade wrapped up
in Geneva, Switzerland, last
week, with some animals being
awarded stronger protections.
Here are seven key decisions
that were made at the
meeting of the Convention
on International Trade in
Endangered Species of Wild
Fauna and Flora (CITES).
Help for giraffes
The world’s tallest animals have
been experiencing tough times
lately. Giraffe numbers have
fallen by up to 40 per cent in just
three decades because of habitat
destruction. Countries voted
overwhelmingly to protect all
nine sub-species – the first time
giraffes have been given CITES
protection. Conservationists
said they were optimistic for the
future of giraffes after the move.
Stalemate on elephants
The status quo largely
prevailed on elephants and
the ivory trade, after competing
proposals to weaken and
strengthen protections both
failed. Governments rejected
proposals to allow limited
international trade in ivory, but
also rejected a move to end all
international trade in elephants.
However, countries did back a
plan to restrict the capture and
export of elephants to zoos in
countries beyond their natural
range. The David Shepherd
Wildlife Foundation said the
step was a “momentous
victory for elephants”.
Saiga hope
As New Scientist previously
reported, hopes were high
for a US-backed global ban
on trade in the saiga antelope.
The proposal to upgrade the
16 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
species to the highest level
of protection by CITES failed.
But in a partial victory, a
“zero quota” was agreed for
the antelope, meaning its
horn can no longer be traded
internationally. The Wildlife
Conservation Society said the
vote would end the “harmful
trade” in the saiga’s horn.
Frog failure
Costa Rica, El Salvador and
Honduras backed a proposal
to protect glass frogs, which
are named for their transparent
skin that shows their organs.
This trait has made them
popular in the pet trade.
The plan to protect them
was defeated. The species,
which lives in Latin America, is
under threat from trade, habitat
loss and chytridiomycosis,
an infectious disease that
has devasted amphibians
around the world.
Shark success
Marine species have been
some of the big winners at
recent CITES meetings. This
one was no exception, with new
protections for 18 shark and ray
species, including the world’s
fastest sharks, the shortfin
Aviation
Robot pilot gets
its wings and
takes to the skies
David Hambling
A ROBOT has earned its pilot’s
licence and performed its first
flight – and had its first airborne
mishap too.
Unlike a traditional autopilot,
the ROBOpilot Unmanned Aircraft
Conversion System literally takes
NATURE PICTURE LIBRARY/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
the controls, pressing on foot pedals
and handling the yoke using robotic
arms. It reads an aircraft’s dials and
meters using computer vision.
The robot can take off, follow a
flight plan and land without human
intervention. ROBOpilot is a drop-in
system, meaning that the pilot’s
seat is removed and replaced with
the robot. It can be inserted into any
and longfin mako. Around aircraft and easily removed to return
100 species of sharks and it to human operation.
rays are regularly traded ROBOpilot has passed the US
internationally for their fins and Federal Aviation Administration’s
meat, according to the Wildlife
Conservation Society, which “ROBOpilot literally takes
welcomed the new protections. the controls, pressing on
foot pedals and handling
Otter ban the yoke with its arms”
Governments agreed a total ban
on the international trade in practical test for piloting light
both the smooth-coated and the aircraft and carried out its first
Asian small-clawed otter. Both flight on 9 August in Utah. A few
species have recently become weeks later, the plane the robot
popular as pets. Wildlife trade was flying was damaged in its first
monitoring group TRAFFIC accident, although the extent of the
said the decision “could damage is unknown.
spur enforcement efforts” The system was developed by
and lead countries to launch US-based DZYNE Technologies as
investigations into claims of an easy way to make any aircraft
captive breeding operations autonomous. At present, turning an
for the otters. aircraft into a drone can be a lengthy
and expensive process. Conversion
Mammoth miss of US military F-16 fighter jets into
One of the most striking drones has been known to cost
proposals at the CITES more than a million dollars each.
meeting was to ban the trade “It looks like an impressive
in mammoth ivory, because it achievement in terms of robotics,”
is sometimes used to launder says Louise Dennis at the
elephant ivory. However, the University of Liverpool, UK.
plan was withdrawn at the The makers say that ROBOpilot
summit and countries agreed could be useful for tasks including
instead to a study into the transporting cargo, flying in
contribution of the extinct hazardous environments and
species’ ivory to the illegal intelligence, surveillance and
elephant ivory trade.  ❚ reconnaissance missions.  ❚
Astrophysics

Double cosmic signal is a puzzle

Two gravitational waves picked up in quick succession could have the same source
Leah Crane

EARLY on 28 August, gravitational single collision because of an and bent, the later signal might not the case. “It is much more
wave detectors felt two ripples in effect known as gravitational come from waves that had to likely that the localisation and
space-time wash over them. But lensing. This normally refers to travel further along a curved path distance of the candidates
due to a strange effect of general how the gravity of a massive object to get to our detectors. Such a coincide by chance than that
relativity, both may actually be warps the path of light. In this case short delay means that the lensing the source aligned with a lensing
from the same event. the idea is that it might have bent object would have to be something object in its way,” says LIGO team
Gravitational waves, which the path of the gravitational wave. relatively small and compact, like a member Gabriela González at
stretch and compress space-time, “It would look like two separate black hole, Cooray says. “If a whole Louisiana State University.
emanate from massive objects events, but it’s really one event galaxy was lensing this, the time Also, while the areas the signals
smashing together. The Laser that’s being split into two by a delay would be much larger.” seem to have come from are close,
Interferometer Gravitational- large object in the way,” says Some members of the LIGO they don’t align precisely. If they
Wave Observatory (LIGO) has Asantha Cooray at the University collaboration say this is probably come from a single event, they
seen the waves from more than of California, Irvine. must be in exactly the same spot.
30 such events since 2015. Another This could account for the time Colliding black holes This doesn’t completely rule
detector, Virgo in Italy, has also delay between the two signals: if create detectable out a gravitationally lensed wave.
come online. Multiple detectors the gravitational waves were split ripples in space-time “The preliminary localisations are
make it possible to find more regularly seen to shift upon final
signals and figure out where they analysis,” says LIGO team member
came from more precisely. Derek Fox at Pennsylvania State
The two signals that came in University. So although they don’t
last week are unusual in ways appear to line up exactly at the
that have led some astronomers moment, that could change.
to say they might be from a single We will find out for sure
source. For one thing, they hit the whether the waves are from
THE SIMULATING EXTREME SPACETIMES (SXS) PROJECT

detectors just 21 minutes apart, two events or one when LIGO

making this only the second time and Virgo analyse the signals
two gravitational waves have been further over the coming months.
spotted in one day. The black holes If a single merger of black holes is
that merged to make the signals responsible, it could teach us more
are also in roughly in the same about not only binary black holes
place in the sky. And they are at but also the sort of objects that can
similar distances from us, between act as a lens and bend the waves
5 and 6 billion light years away. from them. “If they are lensed
Two waves could result from a it’s a pretty big deal,” says Fox. ❚

Microbiology

Giant virus has its use for editing genomes, it evolved
in bacteria as a way of defending
own kind of CRISPR against viruses. The bacteria
to destroy invaders “cannibalise” bits of DNA from the
viruses that attack them and add
A JUMBO virus has evolved a this to their own genomes. This
CRISPR-like immune system to allows them to recognise and
defend against smaller viruses destroy any matching viral DNA
that attack it. A team in France the next time they get attacked.
has confirmed how it works by In 2016, Didier Raoult at
transferring the entire system to Aix-Marseille University in France
a bacterium and tweaking it to
destroy a different target.
While CRISPR has become
claimed that a giant virus called
mimivirus had independently
evolved a CRISPR-like system,
famous as a tool geneticists can dubbed MIMIVIRE, that helped it
recognise and destroy a virus called
zamilon, but critics questioned this.
So Raoult and his colleagues have
now transferred the MIMIVIRE
system to an E. coli bacterium.
Crucially, they swapped zamilon
DNA for bits of a gene within the
E. coli genome. When they activated
MIMIVIRE in the E. coli, it destroyed
that gene (bioRxiv, doi.org/c9z2).
400
The length, in nanometres, of mimivirus,
one of the largest known viruses
This shows that the system
isn’t specific to zamilon, and that
a mimivirus could almost instantly
acquire resistance to a different
invading virus by cannibalising its
DNA, says Raoult. His team is now
searching for strains of mimivirus
that have done this.
It might be possible to adapt
MIMIVIRE for gene editing, as has
been done with CRISPR variants
from bacteria and another branch of
single-celled life known as archaea.
But Raoult has no plans to try this. ❚
Michael Le Page

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 17

 News In brief
DAVID ROTH/GETTY
Marine biology
Deepwater Horizon oil
spill still hitting sea life
IT WASN’T just the coastline
and the ocean surface that
was drenched in oil after the
Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010.
Life in the deep sea took a hit, too,
and many species in the region are
still drastically reduced in number.
“The health of our overall
oceans also requires a healthy
deep sea, as the deep oceans
serve vital roles in carbon cycling,
marine food webs and overall
ocean function,” says Craig
McClain at the Louisiana
Universities Marine Consortium.
He and his colleagues used
remotely operated underwater
vehicles to survey the Gulf of
Mexico around the site of the
disaster. They did the survey in
June 2017 and compared their
findings with surveys done in the
two months after the oil spill.
While the number of animals
increased in that time, the
18 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
Genetics
DNA mutation lets people
thrive on just 4 hours’ sleep
DO YOU need 8 hours of sleep a
night or, like Margaret Thatcher
reportedly did, can you get by on
four? We have now found a gene
that dictates how much sleep you
need by studying a family that gets
by on much less than average.
Ying-Hui Fu at the University
of California, San Francisco, and her
colleagues looked at 12 members
of a family who sleep as little as
4.5 hours per night without feeling
tired. They found they had a
mutation in a gene called ADRB1.
When the team bred rats with
the same mutation, these slept
about 55 minutes less per day
than non-engineered rats. This
correlated with altered activity in a
brain region called the dorsal pons,
which is known to regulate sleep.
In the dorsal pons of unchanged
rats, ADRB1-expressing brain cells
Computing
diversity dropped. McClain says
he and his team noticed an Low-energy nanotube
absence of sea cucumbers, fly-trap chip says ‘hello world’
anemones, Venus flower basket
sponges and giant isopods – A MICROCHIP made from carbon
crustaceans that look like large nanotubes can outperform
woodlice (Royal Society Open modern chips when it comes
Science, doi.org/c9zp). to energy efficiency. If it can be
There has also been a change scaled down, it could save a vast
in which animals inhabit the area. amount of energy.
The team found an abundance Computer performance is
of arthropods, including shrimps improved by making silicon
and crabs. McClain says they may electronics smaller, but that
be attracted to the site because the process is slowing down, says
hydrocarbons that break down in Max Shulaker at the Massachusetts
the wake of an oil spill can mimic Institute of Technology. He and his
the chemicals in sex hormones
that they use to find mates.
“This seems to be common
GAGE HILLS, CHRISTIAN LAU, MAX M. SHULAKER ET AL
in some other oil spills. A historic
oil spill in Buzzards Bay in New
England attracted the American
lobster in droves,” he says.
The animals seem to die
there, perhaps because the
chemical signals also deter
other animals they prey on
from entering the area, he says.
Chelsea Whyte
were inactive during most sleep
stages, but active when the animals
were awake. In engineered rats, the
cells were even more active during
waking hours (Neuron, doi.org/c9zr).
Fu’s team found they could wake
sleeping rats by activating these
ADRB1-expressing brain cells.
The results suggest that
ADRB1-expressing brain cells
promote wakefulness, and that
variations in the ADRB1 gene
influence how long we can stay
awake, says Fu. Her team has
previously found that mutations
in some other genes also make
people need to sleep less.
The mutations don’t seem linked
to negative effects. “Most natural
short sleepers are very happy about
their sleep pattern – they usually
fully take advantage of their extra
time,” says Fu. Alice Klein
team have made a microprocessor
that sits atop a silicon wafer but
is made with carbon nanotubes
(pictured). If you used the
nanotubes to make a computer
chip with the same architecture as
silicon chips, it would be 10 times
as efficient, says Shulaker.
Carbon nanotubes are only a
nanometre thin, so such a chip
can be turned on using very
little energy. They are also good
conductors of electricity.
The team has used the chip to
run a simple program that outputs
the message “Hello, World”,
commonly the first program
written by people learning to
code (Nature, doi.org/c9zs).
“With silicon, the fabrication
temperature is 1000°C or higher,
but these carbon nanotube
transistors can be made at
essentially room temperature,”
says team-member Christian Lau.
The next step would be
to shrink the components,
allowing them to charge and
discharge faster. CW

Neuroscience
Really brief
Illusion makes fabric
seem to move faster
YOUR brain can be tricked to think
rough materials move faster than
smooth ones. The illusion shows
how our brains use skin vibrations
INSTANTS/GETTY
New Scientist Daily
Get the latest scientific discoveries in your inbox
newscientist.com/sign-up
such as corduroy, stretch denim,
microsuede, wool and vinyl over
participants’ fingers at speeds
ranging from 20 to 120 millimetres
per second. Participants were
asked to judge which of a pair of
materials was moving faster.
People tended to say that
“The stronger the vibrations,
the faster the surface was felt
to move,” says Bensmaia.
Some neurons are sensitive
to both speed and texture, and
others only to texture. Bensmaia
says our perception of speed
depends on both. Those sensitive

to judge speed and texture – and rougher textures moved faster to both tell us how fast a
sometimes confuse the two. than smooth ones. For instance, material is moving across the
Sliman Bensmaia at the thin corduroy was judged to be skin. “The texture-sensitive ones
University of Chicago and his faster than thick corduroy. tell us how much of that signal
Red wine linked to team blindfolded volunteers The team also measured the can be attributed to the texture,
diverse microbiome and strapped their right hands vibrations on the skin, which but we don’t listen to the latter
down facing upwards with their increased with rougher textures enough, so our perception of
People who drink red wine index fingers extended. and higher speeds (PLoS Biology, speed is still biased,” he says.
have a more diverse gut The team dragged materials doi.org/c9zt). Ruby Prosser Scully
microbiome than people
who drink other kinds of Agriculture Physiology
alcohol, according to a
study of 3000 people
(Gastroenterology, doi.org/ Lab brains behave like
c92f). Having a wide array those of early babies
of gut bacteria is thought
to be beneficial to health. MINI brains grown in a lab
The team behind the work show similar activity to that
think antioxidants called seen in premature babies’ brains.
polyphenols in red wine This challenges the idea that
may explain the link. brains must develop in a uterus
or be connected to other organs
Worm robot wiggles to function.
through the brain Alysson Muotri at the
KAREN ROBINSON/PANOS

University of California, San

A worm-like robot can Diego, and his colleagues added
navigate a tricky network special growth factors and other
of blood vessels in a model chemicals to make stem cells grow
brain. The robot is just into various brain cell types that
0.6 millimetres across then spontaneously assembled
and is steered using Bananas’ boost from climate into brain-like structures.
magnets. Such robots Each “artificial brain” grew
may make brain surgery change will end as it heats up to about half a centimetre
less invasive (Science in diameter over 10 months.
Robotics, doi.org/c9wd). CLIMATE change has been good from 27 countries stretching Measuring their electrical
to banana growers so far, but back to 1961, and also includes activity revealed that they began
Gel helps tooth temperatures are likely to get so temperature and rainfall records. producing simple brainwaves
enamel to regrow hot that production gains will drop. They found that, globally, the after about two months.
In some places, yields will decline. ideal average temperature for Over time, these brainwave
Tooth enamel is easily Bananas are a staple crop for the crop seems to be 26.7°C, patterns became more complex,
damaged by a lifetime of an estimated 400 million people. but it varies by country. until they were similar to those
chewing, and repairs with For the past 60 years, annual The model suggests that as the of preterm babies born before
fillings don’t last forever. yields have been increasing by world warms, gains in yield will 28 weeks of gestation (Cell Stem
Now a gel made with 1.37 tonnes a hectare as the slow. By 2050, they may be down Cell, doi.org/c9zw).
calcium and phosphate world warms, and now stand at to 0.19 to 0.59 tonnes per hectare The mini-brains are the first
ions – components some 10 to 40 tonnes per hectare. (Nature Climate Change, DOI: models to display human-like
of enamel – seems to Dan Bebber at the University 10.1038/s41558-019-0559-9). brain activity. However, it is
stimulate the material of Exeter, UK, and Varun Varma of Big suppliers are under threat, unlikely they have consciousness,
to regrow itself the National Centre for Biological especially in Latin America, says says Muotri. Such models could
(Science Advances, Sciences in Bangalore, India, have Bebber. Colombia will be so badly help us understand our brains
doi.org/gf7b85). built a model of optimal conditions affected that yields will begin to and help test treatments for
for banana production. It uses data fall, he says. Adam Vaughan neurological disorders. RPS

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 19

News Insight
Transport

The future of driving

A raft of technologies will soon be monitoring a driver’s every move.
Is that a good thing, asks Chris Stokel-Walker
SURVEILLANCE is a fact of life. Eye-trackers will soon
Your boss is monitoring your alert drivers in the EU
performance at work, when they are overtired
supermarkets are collecting data
on your grocery shopping, face- rough plans for how it will prepare
recognition cameras are tracking for more automated driving,
where you walk. Now there is a with the first step being driver
new frontier: the automobile. assistance. Australia also has a
In a few months, European road map to prepare for more
Union law-makers are due to automated vehicles.
rubber stamp proposals that will Driver-assistance systems aren’t
make a raft of monitoring devices entirely new. Some, like automatic
mandatory in cars within three braking – which slows a vehicle if it
years. All new models of car will gets too close to an object – are
come with black boxes, intelligent already present in some cars.
speed assistants, drowsiness-
monitoring cameras and more
besides (see “Eyes on the road”, Stay in lane
right). While the EU is taking the This means we already have
TOMASZ SKOCZEN/GETTY

boldest steps, these technologies some sense of whether they are

aren’t far behind in other parts effective. Jessica Cicchino at US
of the world. research agency the Insurance
The European Commission, Institute for Highway Safety
which proposes legislation for (IIHS) has studied the accident
the EU, reckons the tech will save rates for cars with and without
more than 7000 lives by 2030. Traffic accidents kill and injure of impact as when safety belts these systems by looking at
But are we prepared for devices many people… were first introduced,” says police reports.
that watch how we drive and try Elżbieta Bieńkowska, the She found that automatic
to help us do it better?
When cars feature in the news, 25,300
Number of people killed in road
European commissioner who is
responsible for overseeing the
braking halves the number of
rear end crashes. And systems that
the story is usually about their implementation of the rules. warn drivers when they veer out of
nasty emissions or how to make accidents in EU countries in 2017 She isn’t alone in her optimism. their lane reduced the rate of fatal
them drive themselves. Safety “It’s a very dramatic change,” crashes by 86 per cent.
isn’t much discussed, principally
because cars are already very
135,000
Number of people seriously
says Oliver Carsten, who studies
transport safety at the University
There are concerns about these
technologies, however. The main
safe. In the US, the lifetime risk of of Leeds, UK. “This is something one is that they might lead us to
injured in road accidents in
dying in a car accident is 1 in 572, that could halve fatalities get complacent while driving.
EU countries in 2017
according to the US Insurance across Europe.” A survey by researchers at the
Information Institute – ... but driving could soon The tech pulls this off by University of Iowa found that 1 in
substantially lower than, for be safer focusing on the main cause 20 drivers often or frequently feel
example, dying from accidental of road accidents: drivers not comfortable doing other things
poisoning (1 in 64). sticking to the rules, whether while cruise control is engaged in
The European Commission,
however, says that introducing
7300
Number of lives driver-assistance
accidentally or deliberately. It
includes things like lane-keeping
their vehicle. Another study found
that a fifth of drivers thought that
15 advanced driver assistance tech could save in EU nations assistance, which uses a camera ADAS means drivers don’t have to
systems (ADAS) will make driving between 2020 and 2030 to track road markings and can pay much attention to the road.
safer. In a report published in steer. Crucially, none of the Because of this, assistance tech
April 2018, it found that the suite systems are designed to take full should come with an education
of changes could save at least
7300 lives by 2030, and reduce
38,900
Number of serious injuries such
control of the vehicle – drivers can
switch them off or override them.
programme, says software
engineer John McDermid at the
the number of serious injuries tech could prevent in EU nations These changes aren’t just University of York, UK. McDermid
from car crashes by 38,900. over this period happening in the EU. The US says he once test-drove a car and
“We can have the same kind Source: European Commission government has published was told by the salesperson that

20 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

 More Insight online
Your guide to a rapidly changing world
newscientist.com/insight
the lane-keeping assistance meant
he could take his hands off the
wheel – as long as the road didn’t
curve too sharply. The salesperson
couldn’t say exactly what that
limit was, though, and McDermid
was unwilling to find out by
trial and error.
The trouble goes beyond that
anecdote: half of drivers in the
University of Iowa survey said
they didn’t understand how their
car’s automatic braking system
worked. “I think the driver needs
to be given much better training
and warning about these things
than they actually are,” says
McDermid.
It is also important that these
systems remain advisory for
the time being. It is hard to
distil down the skill of driving to
concrete, logic-driven decisions
that are comprehensible to
Eyes on the road
Here are five of the 15 driver
assistance technologies that will
be required in all new cars in the
European Union from 2022.
INTELLIGENT SPEED ASSISTANCE
will recommend sticking within
speed limits, but can be
overridden in an emergency.
ALCOHOL INTERLOCK SYSTEMS
monitor drivers’ breath and stop
them from starting a vehicle if
their blood alcohol level is too
high. A quarter of road deaths in
Europe are due to alcohol, and
such systems can be up to 95 per
cent more effective at preventing
repeat drink-driving than fines.
DROWSINESS AND ATTENTION
DETECTION uses eye-tracking
technology to warn people to take
a break if they appear drowsy,
computer systems. Hills, where
road markings can temporarily
disappear at the crest, have
flummoxed lane-keeping systems,
according to IIHS research. “Quite
simply, the technology is not yet
mature enough,” says McDermid.
There’s also the fear that adding
more technology to vehicles
might make them potential
targets for hackers. For instance,
Dudi Nassi at Ben-Gurion
University of the Negev, Israel,
and his colleagues recently
showed they could fool road sign-
recognition systems in vehicles by
firing images of fake signs at them.
Such concerns might be
overblown. Steve Shladover,
a research engineer at the
University of California, Berkeley,
says that when people worry
about terrorists hacking cars,
he reminds them that there are
as measured by the percentage of
time their eyes are closed. One in
five European drivers say they
have fallen asleep at the wheel in
the past two years, and 7 per cent
of these cases led to an accident.
LANE-KEEPING ASSISTANCE
tracks road markings using a
camera and keeps the vehicle in
lane – in theory. But such systems
have struggled on bends or hills,
so can’t be relied upon entirely.
EVENT DATA RECORDERS are
one of the most controversial
technologies because of fears
that these black box recorders
encourage surveillance. However,
the EU rules say the system
won’t be used except in the event
of a crash – and they help with
insurance claims and police
investigations.
Working
hypothesis
Sorting the week’s
supernovae from the
absolute zeros
usually simpler methods available
to achieve the same ends.
It would be easy to worry about
being watched in your car too.
But the EU rules demand that
drivers can’t be identified from ▲ White rhinos
any recorded data. Plus, the black Even if the last two female
white rhinos felt horny,
“Half of drivers in one there are no males left.
survey said they didn’t Now some of their eggs
understand their automatic have been fertilised with
braking system” frozen sperm.
box required by the rules is ▲ Putting
only checked in the event of an Paging all bad golfers.
accident. The point is to “provide Nissan has developed a
for a more equitable allocation golf ball that rolls itself
of responsibility when a crash into the hole. Alas, it
occurs”, says Shladover. In the US, won’t go on general sale.
such a device continually records,
overwriting data until a crash, ▼ Space probe
when it stops recording, keeping Astronaut Anne McClain
only the previous 30 seconds. has been accused of an
People in the US sometimes offence in orbit, after she
choose to have a black box because accessed her estranged
it can reduce their individual spouse’s bank account
insurance premium. Having them from space. She denies
in every car might push premiums any wrongdoing.
down for everyone if it encourages
people to drive more safely. “These ▼ Titanic
technologies are reducing costs A dive has found the ship
for insurers because they’re is decaying fast. As if the
reducing the number of crashes iceberg wasn’t enough,
that occur,” says Cicchino. iron-eating microbes
What’s more, the data collected and strong currents are
in human-driven cars will help ravaging what remains.
train automated driving systems
to the point that they could be ▼ Football
ready for large-scale deployment A study of 88,000
in the future. After all, many matches in Europe has
ADAS systems will be used in found that football is
automated vehicles. “These are getting more boring, as
the precursors to automated rich sides win constantly.
driving,” says Carsten. Thanks, oligarchs.
As a result, what may at first
glance seem like an intrusive
surveillance technology actually
looks set to be a benefit for
society. “Drivers should think of
it as an extra layer of protection,”
says Cicchino, “rather than the
vehicle trying to take over driving
from you.” ❚
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 21
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 Views
The columnist Letters
Chanda Prescod- Some people
Weinstein on weird without language
black holes p24 can think p26
Comment
Time for a sea change
The global shipping industry has a huge emissions problem.
We must work together to solve it, says Bertrand Piccard
T
HREE per cent. That is how
much the shipping industry
contributes to total global
carbon emissions. It might not
sound much for a sector that
carries 90 per cent of world trade.
But given current predictions for
climate change, that number
needs to fall drastically, and fast.
It isn’t just about greenhouse
gases. The shipping industry
still uses “bunker fuel” made
from the remnants of petrol
refining. Loaded with noxious
gases and fine particles, it is
a major contributor to the
4.2 million people whose deaths
are attributed to air pollution
globally every year.
Some progress has been made
already, with an agreement to
slash the maximum sulphur
content in fuels from 3.5 to 0.5 per
cent from 2020. This took the
174 members of the International
Maritime Organization 12 years
to negotiate. We don’t have that
kind of time for the next steps.
In 2018, the shipping
industry set a target of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in 2050
to half what they were in 2008. The
world’s largest shipping company,
Maersk, set a zero-carbon target
for mid-century, and has ploughed
more than $1 billion into cutting
emissions. Other companies are
taking similar steps, installing
scrubbers to reduce sulphur
emissions, converting boats
to run on liquefied natural gas
and even fitting sails.
JOSIE FORD
The truth is, though, that the
technologies to help them hit their
Aperture
Beautiful clouds
that pack a fiery
punch p28
most ambitious targets don’t yet
exist. If we leave the companies to
carry all the responsibility and
risk, we shouldn’t be surprised
if they abandon their ambitions.
To succeed, we must combine
easy-to-implement, short-term
measures with ambitious, long-
term policies and investment.
First, we must ban bunker
fuel and stop oil companies
using the shipping industry
as a waste disposal system for
otherwise unusable fuel. Major oil
companies that have prepared for
such a ban and have invested in
cleaner fuels now support tougher
Culture
A journey into the
heart of physics via
Buddhism p30
regulations on dirty fuel such as
the 2020 sulphur cap, because this
gives them a competitive edge.
Second, we must impose speed
limits. Cutting speeds now by
20 per cent below the 2012 average
would by 2030 reduce emissions
by up to a third compared with
business as usual. Yes, this would
slow trade, but goods transported
by sea aren’t generally perishable.
Technology can help to make the
flow of ships more predictable and
reduce time spent idling, such as
waiting their turn to dock.
Third, ships in port must be able
to connect with the land-based
Culture columnist
Aniara is one of 2019’s
smartest movies, says
Simon Ings p32
electricity grid to support activities
such as loading, heating and
lighting, rather than using their
auxiliary engines. Ports including
Vancouver and Seattle have
been equipped with shore-power
technologies. California has
even made it mandatory.
Fourth, shipowners need to
embrace innovation. Through
the Efficient Solutions labelling
scheme established by my Solar
Impulse Foundation, I have come
across astonishing innovations
that can reduce costs as well as
emissions in the shipping sector.
Auxiliary wind propulsion
systems, such as Bound4blue’s
rigid wingsails or Norsepower’s
rotor sails, are inspiring examples.
Support is needed from
elsewhere to help those prepared
to take risks. In June, the banking
sector created the Poseidon
Principles to encourage lending
for greener shipping. That is
heartening, and fundamental
to ensuring that the next wave
of ships to be built don’t lock us
into a carbon-intensive maritime
future until mid-century.
For years, I have been an
advocate of bridging the gap
between economy and ecology,
using the market to find solutions
that protect the environment
and make good business
sense.  For shipping too, those
solutions are out there. ❚
Bertrand Piccard co-piloted
a round-the-world solar-
powered flight and runs the
Solar Impulse Foundation
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 23
Views Columnist
Field notes from space-time
When is a black hole not a black hole? When it’s an astrophysical
black hole, of course. These massive, mysterious objects encapsulate
the majesty of the cosmos for Chanda Prescod-Weinstein
E
ARLY one Saturday when I
was 10, my mother dragged
me across Los Angeles to
see, of all things, a documentary.
It was Errol Morris’s A Brief History
of Time, about Stephen Hawking’s
life and work. As Hawking
discussed the “singularities”
at the centre of black holes,
Chanda Prescod-Weinstein I was stunned to learn that there
is an assistant professor of was something Albert Einstein
physics and astronomy, and had been unable to resolve. That
a core faculty member in black hole captured me for life.
women’s studies at the Black holes gain form in
University of New Hampshire. Einstein’s general theory of
Her research in theoretical relativity, which proposes that
physics focuses on cosmology, space and time are unified into
neutron stars and particles a space-time curved by the
beyond the standard model presence of massive objects.
General relativity encourages us
to move away from thinking about
a mysterious force called gravity.
Instead, it says that a body such as
Chanda’s week the sun is so massive that it bends
What I’m reading space-time. Planets orbit the sun
Kaiama L. Glover’s because the straightest line they
translation of Dance on can take in space-time near it is
the Volcano, a novel by an elliptical path around it.
the late Haitian writer Take Einstein’s picture to its
Marie Vieux-Chauvet. logical conclusion and you end
up asking yourself what happens
What I’m watching when an object is so massive that
I really liked the it effectively folds space-time in
documentary Hail on itself. This is a black hole.
Satan? about grass-roots Black holes are often described
political activism and as being akin to a deep well: if you
religious freedom. fall in, you can’t get out. But what
happens inside its boundary, or
What I’m working on “event horizon”, is even more
My lecture notes for the fascinating. The normal properties
course I am teaching this of space and time seem to switch
semester, Introduction to places. In everyday life, we can
astrophysics. only move forward in time, but
inside a black hole, things can only
move forward in space – like being
on an irreversible conveyor belt.
What is that conveyor belt
moving towards? Mathematically,
space-time curvature becomes
EHT COLLABORATION
infinite at a black hole’s central
This column appears singularity, whatever that means.
monthly. Up next week: But we don’t know whether
Graham Lawton that reflects physical reality
24 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
or just the theory breaking down.
As a university student, I
wanted to get involved in the
latest research on black holes.
I learned the hard way that this
isn’t straightforward. There is the
way black holes are discussed in
popular literature and the type
of research portrayed in Morris’s
documentary, focusing on the
quantum properties and space-
time properties of black holes.
Then, there are astrophysical
black holes: real objects that
seem to act like black holes and
form, we think, when massive
objects such as stars collapse.
“There is the way
black holes are
discussed in popular
literature and
then there are
black holes
that really
exist”
It is hard to see black holes,
so black hole astrophysics
focuses on observations of what
happens near them. As exotic
as black hole theory seems, we
apparently have one supermassive
black hole relatively close to us.
Sagittarius A* is a bright radio
source at the Milky Way’s centre,
and we are fairly certain that it is
a black hole with the mass of a
few million suns.
Some of the most intriguing
questions about black holes come
from studying objects known as
active galactic nuclei (AGN):
extremely bright, compact
galactic centres believed to have
black holes of even greater mass
at their cores. These come in a
variety of classes. Quasars give
out a lot of radio waves – they
are “radio-loud”. But maybe my
favourite AGNs are blazars, which
are not only very bright and radio-
loud, but also spew out jets made
of particles travelling close to light
speed. Now there’s a thing: if black
holes suck in and hide everything,
why is it that some of them have
particles flying away at high
speeds? And why do only
some do this, and not others?
One possibility is that all AGNs
have jets, but we can only see some
of them. This would hardly lessen
the core mystery, however, and
that is before you get to the fact
that blazar jets and their host
galaxies have a variety of different
colours that change over decades.
The exciting thing is that we are
making progress on a lot of fronts.
A recent paper from a team led by
Jedidah Isler at Dartmouth College
in New Hampshire showed that
we might be able to find a unifying
model of blazars that explains
how their colour changes in time.
Meanwhile, the big development
earlier this year was when the
Event Horizon Telescope imaged
the region immediately at a black
hole boundary. Over the past
two years, gravitational wave
experiments have also found
multiple small, star-mass black
holes – most recently seeing
one eating a neutron star.
After an undergraduate thesis
focused on astrophysical black
holes and doctoral work that
included considering how black
holes would work if gravity were
slightly different from how
Einstein proposed, I have moved
on to thinking about neutron
stars, which are thought to form
when objects not massive
enough to make black holes
collapse. But for me, as for many
others, black holes will remain
my first gateway to the wonders
of the universe.  ❚
Views Your letters

Editor’s pick
Some people without
language can think
Letters, 20 July
From Peter White, Cardiff, UK
David Werdegar says “it is
impossible for us to think without
language”. But people who have
severe aphasia – loss of language
abilities – because of strokes or
other brain damage may be
unimpaired in other thinking
abilities, including arithmetic,
logical and causal reasoning,
chess playing, spatial navigation
and theory of mind (thinking about
the mental states of other people).
This doesn’t mean that language
isn’t one of the wonders of the
human brain. We shouldn’t, though,
overestimate the extent to which
other cognitive capacities depend
on it. It isn’t clear what this tells us
about the thinking abilities of other
species, because their brains differ We and our microbiome different diets: for instance, those shut off safely when its power
from ours in many ways, but their comparing northern European level gets too low. But nobody
can have diet advice
lack of language doesn’t justify populations that typically would claim that the smartphone
the claim that they can’t think. 13 July, p 32 consume more animal-based “feels tired”. It isn’t experiencing
From Dusan Cech, Farnborough, fats with southern European tiredness in a conscious way like a
Queensland, Australia populations whose diets feature human. It experiences no qualia.
Little Sun’s ‘social change’
Clare Wilson does a good job fish, vegetables and olive oil. That is the problem to be
doesn’t change enough revealing the pitfalls of most Other studies compared the explained, and no amount of
13 July, p 28 studies looking at diets. She health of Japanese immigrants hand-waving about “illusions”
From Christine Wolak, could also have mentioned the to the US who adopted typically will make it go away. Even if qualia
Dublin, California, US emerging discoveries of the health lower-quality American diets are illusory, the hard question
The news from Olafur Eliasson effects of the composition of our with those in Japan who followed remains: how is it that such
that Little Sun lamps increase the microbiome – the organisms a traditional diet. illusions produce a conscious
homework efficiency of girls in in our gut and on our skin, for Studies comparing vegetarians experience in a human brain?
households without electricity example. Perhaps knowledge of with meat eaters support the value
by 80 per cent isn’t inspiring: how changes to diet can affect this of a vegetarian diet.
Is it worth studying the
it’s a sad story about the unequal composition will become the next
expectations for boys and girls. form of dietary advice when it health of toothless people?
Experiencing a feeling of 10 August, p 42
I support the health and goes mainstream.
safety and climate justifications frustration about qualia From William Graham,
for replacing oil lanterns with From William Meggs, 22 June, p 34 Grange-over-Sands, Cumbria, UK
solar-powered LED lamps. But Greenville, North Carolina, US From Ben Haller, Debora MacKenzie reports that
describing how they enable girls to Wilson correctly points out the Ithaca, New York, US infection with Porphyromonas
do the dishes and their homework limitations and inconsistencies Trying to explain away the gingivalis, a bacterium involved
while boys only do the latter tells of observational studies based on “hard problem” of consciousness, in gum disease, may cause a
girls that they can study and still questionnaires, and the inability Rowan Hooper claims qualia are variety of serious diseases. I have
have time to take care of everyone to perform randomised controlled illusory and so there is nothing heard that having all one’s teeth
else. Where does that extra time studies of diet and health. She to explain. He says “we don’t extracted was a not uncommon
come from? Most likely from concludes that the problem is normally talk about our qualia, 21st birthday present in parts
either sleep or play – time that a serious enough that we should we talk about things such as being of England until the middle of
boy gets but a girl doesn’t. Unless be sceptical of all dietary advice. tired”. But that misses the point. the 20th century. It would be
this extra homework time leads to But there are studies that A smartphone can register interesting to know if any similar
increased opportunities for girls, examine health differences in that its battery is low, display a studies have been carried out on
will it really matter in the end? geographical populations with low-battery icon on its screen and the health of people without teeth.

26 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019


From Bryn Glover, Kirkby Malzeard,
North Yorkshire, UK
Assuming that people who
have no teeth at all wouldn’t
be troubled by plaque-dwelling
bacteria, I wonder whether any
correlation has been sought
between toothlessness and
the prevalence of the diseases
identified by MacKenzie.
The editor writes:
These bacteria can get into your
bloodstream just by chewing, so
even having all your teeth pulled
at an early age may not prevent
exposure. Others will be toothless
because of gum disease – the cow
is out of the barn for them.
How could evolution arise
from conscious agents?
3 August, p 34
From Paul Mealing,
Melbourne, Australia
Donald Hoffman claims to have
used the theory of evolution by
natural selection to discover that
what we perceive isn’t objective
reality, but an interface with it.
He says evolution itself may be
just an interface projection of
deeper dynamics stemming from
a network of conscious agents. But
such agents arrive late in the fossil
record, so how could evolution
arise before they existed?
When super-rotation was
still an incredible idea
22 June, p 42
From Ed Prior,
Poquoson, Virginia, US
In her excellent article, Leah Crane
mentions that the atmosphere of
Venus “inexplicably rotates 60
times faster than the solid planet”.
We first learned of this implausible
phenomenon in the 1960s when
Desmond King-Hele discovered
that Earth’s atmosphere rotates
up to 50 per cent faster about
Want to get in touch?
Send letters to New Scientist, 25 Bedford Street, London
WC2E 9ES or letters@newscientist.com; see terms at
newscientist.com/letters
370 kilometres up than it does
near the planet’s surface.
King-Hele developed the
physics of orbital mechanics to
detect the effects of atmospheric
drag on satellites. He found that
the rotating upper atmosphere
causes a slow decrease in a
satellite’s orbital inclination,
and could then determine the
rotation rate of the atmosphere
at its altitude. My work at NASA
Langley on the Air Density Explorer
satellites, which released balloons
in orbit, benefited greatly from
King-Hele’s work. There was once
scepticism about the idea of super-
rotation. The discovery of the
astonishing behaviour of Venus’s
atmosphere seems to have
established this phenomenon.
I applaud your hearty
serving of wrasse
20 July, p 17, p 19 and p 34
From Simon French,
Totnes, Devon, UK
I very much enjoyed the quantity
of wrasse in one issue. Your report
of a new purple species of fairy
wrasse was followed two pages
later by bluehead wrasse changing
sex. Then, you quoted string
theorist Timm Wrase.  ❚
For the record
❚ Matthew Williams at Cardiff
University, UK, and his colleagues
created – on their own initiative –
a “dashboard” that flags between
500,000 and 800,000 tweets
per day related to Brexit. Of these,
between 0.2 per cent and 0.5 per
cent are classified as hateful, and
about 0.2 per cent of those have
tags for users’ locations in the UK
(31 August, p 6).
❚ Weight a moment: Galileo
Galilei is said to have proved that
the acceleration due to gravity that
objects experience is unrelated to
their mass (13 July, p 42).
Views From the archives
20 years ago, New Scientist
was bidding goodbye to a symbol
of international space cooperation
MIR wasn’t Jean-Pierre
Haigneré’s favourite place.
Asked what the ageing Soviet
space station he was staying
on smelled and sounded like,
the French astronaut said: “Mir
to me sometimes smells like
burnt coffee. The background
noise is similar to the engine
room of a boat or a noisy
aeroplane. The numerous fans aboard the station are
the primary source of this nuisance, which averages
67 decibels. I have completely forgotten what silence
is like.” On whether he had any privacy, his answer
was even more definitive: “No!”
The interview, published in New Scientist’s
4 September 1999 issue, marked the culmination of
Haigneré’s second stint orbiting Earth, as well as the
impending end of Mir’s long-term crewed operations.
Mir, whose name means “peace” or “world” in
Russian, was launched in 1986. It developed out of
the Salyut programme, which had launched a series
of smaller space stations starting in 1971. That had
made the Soviet Union the undisputed leader in the
field: the US had only ever had one space station in
orbit, the short-lived Skylab.
Once in orbit, Mir lived up to its name, with an
increasingly international crew showing a new spirit
of cooperation in space. They devoted themselves to
experiments in human biology, physics, astronomy
and meteorology, all while orbiting Earth 15.7 times
a day at about 27,700 kilometres per hour.
Mir developed a reputation for its astonishing
ability to survive disaster after disaster, including
computer failures, oxygen leaks, on-board fires and,
of course, the 1991 collapse of the state that had
launched it. For all his reservations, Haigneré was
proud of Mir’s achievements, especially in its straitened
final post-Soviet years. “At the moment, procedures are
not applied strictly enough. But that is natural given
the reduction of resources. In our Western system,
everything would have come to a halt a long time
ago,” he said.
Despite efforts by a privately funded company
to reactivate and repair Mir, it deorbited on 23 March
2001, breaking up on re-entry over the Pacific Ocean.
Yet its spirit lives on. Russian ideas for a successor were
combined with US Reagan-era plans to give humanity
a new home in space from 2000 onwards: the
International Space Station.  Simon Ings
To find more from the archives, visit
newscientist.com/old-scientist
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 27
Views Aperture

28 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

Fascinated by flames?
Discover the science of fire with Guillermo Rein
For more details visit newscientistlive.com

Fire clouds

Photographer David Peterson,

US Naval Research Laboratory

THIS sinister photo shows the sun

setting through thick smoke from
the massive Williams Flats wildfire
in the east of Washington state.
As well as the grey smoke, which is
what makes the sun look strange,
there are massive white clouds
called pyrocumulonimbus
caused by the fire’s heat.
The image was captured by
meteorologist David Peterson
from a NASA research plane.
There are very few photos of these
clouds, says Peterson, and hardly
any from above. His was taken at
8 pm on 8 August from a height
of 9 kilometres.
The flight was part of a
joint project by NASA and
the US’s National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration to
study how smoke from wildfires
affects air quality and climate. The
particles and chemicals in smoke
can have complex effects on
clouds, from absorbing the sun’s
heat to triggering the formation
of heat-reflecting clouds.
Pyrocumulonimbus clouds
can act as chimneys, carrying
large amounts of smoke up into
the lower stratosphere. Smoke
that rises this high can linger for
weeks or months, amplifying its
effects. In August 2017, fire-driven
thunderstorms in North America
pumped vast amounts of smoke
into the stratosphere that
remained for four months.
Peterson’s team estimated that
the smoke’s mass was comparable
to that emitted during the 2008
eruption of an Alaskan volcano
called Kasatochi.
Some researchers think
such massive storms could
become more common as the
world warms, so understanding
pyrocumulonimbus clouds is
more important than ever.  ❚

Michael Le Page

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 29

Views Culture

Can Zen explain physics?

If you are struggling to grasp fundamental physics, you need all the help
you can get – even paradoxes borrowed from Buddhism, says Gilead Amit
truly impartial observer; quantum
mechanics forced us to confront
Book the inherent unknowability of
Cosmological Koans: the universe; current cosmology
A journey to the heart asks if the universe is as it is only
of physics because we are here to see it.
Anthony Aguirre If these are the kinds of
Allen Lane questions that have you
clamouring for more, then
LET’S start with the basics. Koans Cosmological Koans is for you.
(pronounced co-ann or co-arn, The book threads the paradoxes
depending on who you talk to) along the journey of an unnamed
are paradoxical vignettes integral 17th-century traveller, journeying
to the practice of Zen Buddhism. from Venice to Japan, sometimes
A grain of sand thrown into the willingly, at other times by chance.
machinery of the mind, their Portions of the story are told
purpose is to frustrate, to inspire in chronological order, others
and to enlighten. in flashback or flash-forward.
Cognitive scientist Douglas The overall impression is one
Hofstadter, who did much to of peering down the fourth
MOHAIMEN WARETH/EYEEM/GETTY

popularise koans in his classic dimension, witnessing the

book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An traveller’s life happening all at
eternal golden braid, saw them once, in hundreds of different
as attempts to “break the mind places and different times.
of logic”. Or, more explicitly, Each of the traveller’s
ways to stop the mind from adventures offers an opportunity
using logic where deeper modes for Aguirre to tackle a particular
of thought are called for. topic in fundamental physics. So
Some koans, such as the sound of California, Santa Cruz, Aguirre Ditching logic might the wanderings across Asia equate
made by one hand clapping, is ideally placed to survey the help us understand to the many paths an unobserved
have entered the realm of cliché. paradoxical nature of his field. the cosmos particle can take in quantum
The purpose of these riddles isn’t In the case of physics, the mechanics, while an all-knowing
to elicit an answer. Rather, it is trouble begins with mathematics. djinn encountered in a desert
to stimulate a lengthy mental It is the language the universe cave acts as Laplace’s demon,
journey that may lead to speaks, but most of us who live an imagined entity capable of
unexpected insights. here can barely string together a predicting the future trajectories
Combining Zen Buddhism sentence. The insights it captures of all particles in the universe.
with fundamental physics, as aren’t always easy to visualise Some of these analogies are
a new book does, can seem an or verbalise, resulting in clumsy clever, others are laboured to the
odd choice, but there are plenty paradoxes and simplifications “Mathematics is the point of collapse. For example,
of parallels between the two that scrub away precision. visualising the flow of the Lhasa
language the universe
disciplines. Most notably, both That hasn’t stopped generations river, alternately stopped by
devote themselves to the study of physicists (and their
speaks, but most of dams and enabled by tributaries,
of truths unattainable through predecessors) from using their us can barely string is no easier than thinking of
words alone. work to ask profound questions together a sentence” current flowing around an
For this reason, the koan is the about the nature of reality. Zeno’s electrical circuit. Instead of pairs
tool of choice for Anthony Aguirre paradoxes probed the intrinsic of Galileos throwing balls at one
in Cosmological Koans, his character of time; the Copernican another in Venetian gondolas,
attempt to give readers a flavour of revolution revealed that Earth give me beams of light bouncing
present-day thinking in theoretical wasn’t at the centre of creation; between mirrors.
physics. As co-founder of the thermodynamics taught us Sometimes, dabs of narrative
Foundational Questions Institute that randomness runs reality; colour serve to obscure rather
and a cosmologist at the University relativity banished the notion of a than enhance. The references to

30 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

 Don’t miss

Pieces of brilliance
The machineries of empire can sometimes be
unnervingly beautiful, finds Chris Baraniuk

“djinnium” as shorthand for really an integral part of that Watch

computational power prompt transformation,” she says. Anime’s Human
much unnecessary flipping back Exhibition These Elizabethan Machines at London’s
of pages, as does the coinage of Science City 1550 – 1800: mathematical instruments Barbican Centre will
“metakalpa”, where the phrase “a The Linbury Gallery aided architects and navigators, explore Japanese
very long time” would do as well. Science Museum, London says Rose. When a bridge at cinema’s love of
The book can suffer from an Opens 12 September 2019 Westminster was first built challenging cyborgs.
unnecessary orientalism. The in the mid-1700s, it was a Tetsuo, The Iron Man
djinns are given cod Islamic IF YOU were an aspiring watchmaker, James Valoué, who (pictured) is first up
names (Laplace’s demon becomes scientist or navigator in designed a pile-driving machine on 12 September
djinn Ibn-La-Plaz), the samurai 16th-century London and that helped engineers span the at 6:30pm BST.
are stoic warriors of superhuman wanted a well-made folding sludgy Thames. A contemporary
ability and the Buddhist monks rule or astrolabe, you were model of Valoué’s machine is
are as enigmatic as they are probably best off shopping found in Science City 1550 –
profound. It’s all more Kung Fu on the continent – that is, 1800. Such models were once
Panda than one might wish. until Elizabeth I and her advisers used to explain the principles
What Aguirre does remarkably came along. They decided that of Newtonian mechanics to
well is to find a way of threading London should produce its own audiences in the city.
many of the most interesting high-quality mathematical The great London scientists
questions in theoretical physics instruments, in one of many of the period are represented:
onto a single narrative chain. projects that helped establish the exhibition features Isaac Visit
Everything from the principles the English capital as a great Newton’s reflecting telescope, Beazley Designs of the
of relativity to the diverse science centre. on loan from the Royal Society, Year at London’s Design
interpretations of quantum A new gallery at London’s as well as an ornate microscope Museum reveals the
mechanics by way of entropy, Science Museum charts designed by Robert Hooke most innovative designs
the anthropic principle and the scientific development in that he used to make detailed in fashion, architecture,
universe’s dramatic inflation soon the city from 1550 to 1800, drawings of insects and plants. digital, transport, product
after the big bang are covered a period that saw it become But while London and graphics. This year,
succinctly and accessibly in the a world hub, says curator craftspeople made some the general public has
course of a few hundred pages. Alexandra Rose. “Science was beautiful tools, it would be a helped with the selection.
At its heart, the book does offer mistake to think all scientific From 11 September
a compelling answer to the Robert Hooke used microscopes instruments of the age were until 9 February 2020.
question of how to talk about of his own design in Royal so aesthetically pleasing.
the un-talk-about-able. Society demonstrations Many pieces of equipment were
Of course, other approaches are simply drawn on paper, cut out
available. Tim Radford’s recent and stuck to bits of wood.
book, The Consolations of Physics, “They obviously don’t survive
shows the mileage in sideways to the same extent,” says Rose.
peeks at science through history “We have a few examples of
and culture. Then there is Carlo those, but they’re much rarer.”
Rovelli’s The Order of Time, in Instrumentation proved
JENNIE HILLS/THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE SCIENCE MUSEUM

which he attempts to harness the indispensable to the many Read

power of poetry to the cause of English traders and explorers Vast Expanses:
physics, and Helen Czerski’s Storm of the time. Aggressive imperial A history of the oceans
in a Teacup, which revels in the ambition went hand in hand (Reaktion Books) by
specific phenomena of daily life. with the development of science Helen M. Rozwadowski
But Aguirre’s embrace of the and technology in London. examines the ancient
koan marks him out. Clearly, for The imperialism has gone; the and enduring connection
city and the science remain.  ❚
TETSUO, THE IRON MAN

him, the greater the multiplicity between humans and

of paths – to lapse into the oceans by exploring
koanesque – the nearer we may get Chris Baraniuk is a freelance different cultures around
to some sort of enlightenment. science and technology journalist the planet.
About physics, at least. ❚ based in Belfast, UK

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 31

Views Culture
The film column

Nowhere to run Aniara, the story of an interplanetary cruiser thrown off course,
is one of the smartest movies of the year because it understands that the best way
to portray the future is as though it were the present, says Simon Ings

Rescue is a forlorn notion

for passengers on the
space cruiser Aniara

the Universe, to which Aniara

serves as a bleak twin. Don’t for
a moment think that this is a film
without humour. In one scene,
the captain (played with pitch-
METAFILM/MAGNOLIA PICTURES/KOBAL/SHUTTERSTOCK

Simon Ings is a novelist and perfect ghastliness by Arvin

science writer and a culture
editor at New Scientist.
Follow him on Instagram
@simon_ings
IN THE opening sequence of the
Swedish sci-fi film Aniara, a space
Film elevator rises into low Earth orbit
Aniara to meet an interplanetary cruiser,
Directed by Pella Kagerman bound for new settlements
and Hugo Lilja on Mars. Earth, pillaged to
On UK release destruction by humanity,
is by now literally burning.
Simon also But the elevator turns out to
recommends... be, well, a night bus. A tight focus
on lead actor Emelie Jonsson,
Films who plays Mimaroben, staring
“The moment we attain
Alphaville out of a misted-up window into
Directed by Jean-Luc Godard the featureless dark, accentuates,
A secret agent is out to rather than conceals, the lack of set.
liberate the distant space The interplanetary cruiser Aniara is
city of Alphaville (Paris, a pretty decent piece of model work
in fact, with no special on the outside. Inside, it is a ferry.
sets or props). Have writer-directors Pella
Kagerman and Hugo Lilja turned
Dark Star out a film so low budget that they
Directed by John Carpenter couldn’t afford sets? Have they
A self-medicating, bored-to- been inept enough to reveal that
death stellar demolition fact in the first reel?
crew embrace the cosmic No, and no. On the contrary,
tedium. Yes, it’s a comedy. Aniara is one of 2019’s smartest
movies. The ship’s journey to Mars
is primarily a retail opportunity.
Buy some duty-free knits while
your kids knock each other off
plastic dinosaurs in the soft-play
area. Have your picture taken with
someone on the minimum wage
dressed as a stupid bird. Don’t
worry: in a real crisis, there’s
always pitch and putt.
When the worst happens –
colliding with space debris,
Aniara is nudged off course
into interstellar space – the lights
flicker, someone trips on the
stairs, a few passengers complain
the future, it becomes
now – not a place you
go to for a frisson of
wonder or horror”
about the lack of information, and
the hospitality crew work the mall
bearing complimentary snacks.
“Transtellar Cruise Lines would
like to apologize to passengers for
the continuing delay to this flight.
We are currently awaiting the
loading of our complement of
small lemon-soaked paper napkins
for your comfort, refreshment and
hygiene during the journey.”
Not Aniara, this, but a quotation
from Douglas Adams’s radio tie-in
novel The Restaurant at the End of
Kananian) reassures passengers
that rescue is imminent while
playing billiards. Balls and pockets,
planets and gravity wells: it is
every useless planetary mechanics
lecture you may have suffered
through. Watching it, you know
everyone is doomed.
Not only will there be no rescue,
it begins to dawn on our hero
Mimaroben (a sort of ship’s
counsellor armed with a telepathic
entertainment system that, yes,
kills itself) that there is no such
thing as rescue. “You think Mars is
paradise?” she scolds a passenger.
“It’s cold.” Death is a waiting game,
wherever you run.
Aniara is based on a sci-fi poem
by Nobel prizewinner Harry
Martinson. In a review of it, sci-fi
writer Theodore Sturgeon said it
“transcends panic and terror and
even despair [and] leaves you in
the quiet immensities”.
I don’t care how bleak it is. I’m
sick of those oh-so-futuristic sci-fi
films, with their scenarios that,
however “dystopic”, are really only
there to ravish the eye and numb
the mind. Aniara gets the future
right – it portrays it as though it
were the present. When we finally
build a space elevator, it will be
like a bus. When we do fly to Mars,
it will be indistinguishable from
taking a ferry. The moment we
attain the future, it becomes
now, and now is not a place you
go to for a frisson of wonder or
horror. It is where you are stuck,
trying to scrape together a
meaning for it all. ❚

32 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

 Where did we come from?
How did it all begin?

And where does belly-button fluff come from?

Find the answers in our latest book. On sale now.

Introduction by Professor Stephen Hawking

Features Cover story
R
EMEMBER the last time you had a
stomach bug and just wanted to
crawl into bed and pull up the covers?
That is called “sickness behaviour” and it is
a kind of short-term depression. The bacteria
infecting you aren’t just making you feel
nauseous, they are controlling your mood
too. It sounds absurd: they are in your gut
and your feelings are generated in your brain.
In fact, this is just an inkling of the power that
microbes have over our emotions.
In recent years, such organisms in the gut
have been implicated in a range of conditions
that affect mood, especially depression and
anxiety. The good news is that bacteria
don’t just make you feel low; the right ones
can also improve your mood. That has an
intriguing implication: one day we may be
able to manipulate the microbes living within
The
psychobiotic
revolution
The discovery that gut bacteria
influence our emotions
should make us all happy.
Scott Anderson reports
34 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
our gut to change our mood and feelings.
It is early days, but the promise is astounding.
The World Health Organization rates depression
and anxiety as the number one cause of
disability, affecting at least 300 million people
worldwide. The new findings challenge the
whole paradigm of mental illness being caused
by a chemical imbalance in the brain, and
offer an alternative to drug treatment. You’ve
probably heard of probiotics, but these are their
new incarnation – psychobiotics. They could
be about to change the mood of the planet.
Bacteria have been associated with sickness
almost since they were discovered 350 years
ago by Dutch biologist and microscope pioneer
Antonie van Leeuwenhoek. Only recently
have we begun to understand that microbes
also contribute to our health. They produce
vitamins and help us eke out extra energy
from otherwise indigestible food, for example.
Most importantly, by outcompeting and
directly battling pathogens, our home-grown
microbes protect us from disease.
It wasn’t until the 21st century that we
got the first hint that microbes might also
influence how we feel. It started with very
clean mice. In 2004, Nobuyuki Sudo at Kyushu
University, Japan, found that mice lacking
microbes had an abnormal response to stress.
These so-called germ-free mice are born
through antiseptic caesarean sections and
raised in a sterile environment. Such animals
don’t exist in nature because microbes
are inescapable: they coat the skin and are
especially fond of the mucous lining of the gut.
They accumulate in the colon, which has the
right conditions to support a dense population
of bacteria, fungi and viruses. Without a
protective set of microbes, germ-free mice
are particularly vulnerable to pathogens.
A normal mouse isn’t finicky about food, and
can consume millions of pathogens without
a hiccup, but a germ-free mouse can die from
eating a mere dozen or so harmful bacteria.
Sudo and his team expected physical disease
in their mice, but they weren’t prepared for
the behavioural differences they observed.
Compared with their more germy cousins,
the germ-free mice devoted more time to
inanimate objects than to other mice and had
an exaggerated response to stress. They also
had less developed brains. It is hard to know
what is going on in the mind of a mouse, but
they acted like they were depressed. Tellingly,
when Sudo fed them a pathogen-free microbial
concoction, they developed a normal stress
response within days.
This surprising connection between
microbes and mood was dubbed the >
PETER STRAIN

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 35

 Eat your way to happiness
Dietician Megan Rossi tells Helen Thomson how the food we
eat can have a big effect on our mental and physical health
Megan Rossi is a research fellow at King’s
College London and a dietician and founder of
the Gut Health Clinic at Harley Street in London.
Her background as a clinical dietician and sports
nutritionist in Australia helped her realise the
depth of the link between what we eat, the
bacteria in our gut and how we feel, subjects she
now researches at King’s. Her book Eat Yourself
Healthy is published on 19 September.
It made me laugh when you said in your book
that “intimate kisses” can transfer bacteria
between partners. Are there consequences?
There are millions of bacteria in our saliva, so we’d
like to see if these impact our partners’ health in
some way. In observational studies, there’s an
increased risk of being obese if you have an obese
partner. Of course, this may just be down to your
shared eating environment, but there’s a theory
that you might also be sharing bacteria that are
associated with obesity.
How did you become The Gut Health Doctor?
It’s not the most glamorous specialism.
I’ve always had a huge passion for food. During
my dietetic degree, my grandma passed away of
bowel cancer. I had a very negative relationship
with the gut, for making her go through all that
pain. But when I was working as a clinical dietician,
I realised all my patients were complaining of gut
problems even though they actually had kidney
disease. I couldn’t find any information that
linked the kidneys and the gut, so I did a PhD to
see if there was a way to improve the health of
these patients by giving them prebiotics, which are
dietary fibre that feed gut bacteria, and probiotics,
which are the actual bacteria. My work showed
that this decreased the toxins in their blood that
were associated with kidney disease and helped
their gut problems.
At the same time, I was the nutritionist for
the Australian Olympic synchronised swimming
team and I saw that the girls who had the most
performance anxiety had the most gut issues.
All these things showed me how essential the
gut was to every organ in the body.
How is it that gut bacteria can affect our brain?
It has been known for ages that there is a
connection between our gut and brain via nerves,
but now there is a new player, gut bacteria. They
communicate with the brain in three different
ways: they send signals up the vagus nerve
directly into the brain; they influence immune
36 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
right bacteria for six weeks, we can see an
increase in activation in parts of the brain
associated with mood and emotions, compared
with a placebo group. Gut bacteria can influence
symptoms of depression, too.
So should we all be taking prebiotics and
probiotics regularly?
You don’t need to take a prebiotic supplement:
prebiotics are found in thousands of foods
we would normally eat. If you’re generally
healthy, you don’t need any extra probiotics
either, but there is really good evidence that
people with certain conditions will benefit from
taking a probiotic supplement. One example
is when you’re taking antibiotics. Probiotics
can significantly reduce your risk of antibiotic-
DAVID STOCK FOR NEW SCIENTIST
associated diarrhoea, which affects about
30 per cent of people.
How do we make sure we’re feeding our
gut bacteria the right kinds of foods?
It’s not about taking supplements, but about
having a wide range of plant-based foods in
our diet. Things like whole grains, nuts, seeds,
“People with legumes, fruit – all these things should be
part of our daily diet. There are beneficial
30 plant-based chemicals like polyphenols in plant-based
foods too. They are found in nice things like
elements in their dark chocolate and red wine.
diet have better What are the easiest dietary changes
we can make?
mental health”
We know that people who have at least
30 plant-based elements in their weekly diet
have a more diverse range of bacteria in their
gut, which is associated with better weight
management, better heart health and better
mental health. One easy change is to get a packet
cells in the gut, which produce a range of of mixed seeds and put a teaspoon on your
chemicals that affect the brain; and they produce breakfast – that’s four extra elements right
chemicals that travel in the blood. Some can there. Or get a packet of mixed leaf salad, rather
get through the blood-brain barrier to the brain. than a single lettuce, because each different
And it works in both directions. type of lettuce has different plant chemicals
that feed different bacteria.
What is the effect of this gut-brain
communication? Do we need to keep an eye on what comes
This is an area that scientists are desperately out of our bodies, as well as what goes in?
trying to understand. There are studies in people Yeah. You don’t need to talk about it at the
that suggest that bacteria can affect hormones dinner table, but listening in to our gut health,
and neurotransmitters like GABA, which has a keeping an eye on our poop every few weeks
calming effect on some areas of the brain, but and talking about what we’re eating to help
the exact mechanism is something we don’t our bowels are definitely things we should be
quite understand. However, if we give just the more open about. ❚
 Gut health from the inside out
See Megan Rossi speak at New Scientist Live on 12 October
newscientistlive.com
“Microbes can
produce almost
every neuro-
transmitter
found in the
human brain”
gut-brain axis. Sudo’s discovery fascinated
researchers across a wide range of fields and
launched a spate of studies. Some of these
uncovered differences in the brain chemistry
of germ-free mice compared with normal ones,
including a dramatic reduction in serotonin, a
neurotransmitter linked to depression. Others
showed that mice bred to model depression
in humans appeared to benefit from being fed
certain types of bacteria. A study by John Cryan
and Ted Dinan, both at University College
Cork in Ireland, found that the bacterium
Lactobacillus rhamnosus, which is in some
live yogurt, has potent anti-anxiety effects
in mice. “They became a lot more chilled out
and relaxed. They behaved as if they were on
Valium or Prozac,” says Cryan. “We looked at
their brains and found widespread changes.”
It isn’t possible to do germ-free research
in humans. However, Cryan and Dinan also
found that giving normal mice a faecal
transplant from a person with depression
led to the mice developing depression-like
symptoms. This convinced them that the
findings in mice have relevance to people.
The pair also realised that if gut bacteria
influence our emotions this would have huge
implications for how we understand and treat a
variety of mental health issues. In 2013, together
with their colleague Catherine Stanton, they
proposed the idea of psychobiotics – a new
class of probiotics that could improve people’s
mood. Not least, the new line of research
suggested ways in which we could use our
diet to positively influence our mood (see
“Eat your way to happiness”, left).
It was an audacious idea, not least because,
at that point, nobody was sure how the
gut-brain axis might work. “The question
CHUNG SUNG-JUN/GETTY IMAGES
is, how can bacteria in your gut communicate
with your brain?” says Cryan.
A clue seemed to lie in the astonishing
discovery, in the early 2000s, that microbes
can produce almost every neurotransmitter
found in the human brain, including serotonin
and dopamine, which is involved in motivation
and reward. But there was a problem: the brain
is designed to insulate itself from most outside
influences with a “blood-brain barrier” that
prevents cells, particles and certain molecules –
including neurotransmitters – from getting
in. How could these chemicals produced by
microbes in the gut affect the brain?
Hotline to the brain
A breakthrough came in 2017 with the
discovery of special cells in the gut lining.
These enterochromaffin cells can detect
neurotransmitters produced by microbes,
resulting in a pulse being triggered in the
vagus nerve, which connects the gut to the
brain. What’s more, experiments in mice
show that cutting this nerve terminates
many psychobiotic actions. For example,
Dinan and Cryan found that L. rhamnosus
didn’t alleviate stress in mice when the vagus
nerve was severed. More evidence suggests
that gut microbes and the molecules they
produce can directly modulate the integrity
of the blood-brain barrier too.
This apparent communication between
gut microbes and the brain may even affect
the organ’s development. The brain is full of
structures with specialised functions. Those
involved with stress and mood include the
amygdala, prefrontal cortex, hippocampus
and hypothalamus. They are connected by
Probiotics like kimchi
could boost your mood
spaghetti-like axons running helter-skelter
throughout the brain, in a complex wiring
pattern that is unique for each of us. That
wiring starts getting laid down in the uterus
and continues in earnest during the first
three years of a baby’s life. Amazingly, gut
microbes can influence this process. Germ-free
mice show abnormal development in their
amygdala, hippocampus and prefrontal cortex.
How gut microbes do this, and influence
the brain thereafter, is less clear, but we do
know that these structures aren’t static.
For example, depression can cause your
amygdala – which is responsible for the crucial
fight-or-flight response in life-threatening
situations – to become more active and
swell up. The condition can also cause the
hippocampus to shrink, potentially affecting
your memory. These physical changes explain
why you can’t simply “think yourself happy”.
The exact extent to which microbes are
involved is unknown, but a link has been
found between gut bacteria and the way
healthy people process emotions. In 2017,
Kirsten Tillisch and Emeran Mayer, both
at the University of California, Los Angeles,
examined the gut microbes of 40 women
and found the volunteers could be divided into
two groups: those with lots of bacteria from
the genus Prevotella and those with lots from
the genus Bacteroides. The researchers then
used functional MRI scans to look at activity
in specific parts of the women’s brains while
they viewed emotionally disturbing images.
Each group had distinct brain activity, which
was different enough to indicate which an >
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 37

Bacteria such as Prevotella
(left) and Bacteroides (right)
influence how your brain
processes emotions
individual belonged to with an accuracy of
87 per cent. In particular, the group with plenty
of Prevotella bacteria, which was much smaller,
had less activity in the hippocampus. This is
also found in people with depression.
Tillisch and Mayer have also found that
they can influence the way people’s brains
process emotions by using probiotics. They
gave 36 healthy women probiotic yogurt
containing four types of bacteria twice daily
for four weeks. Brain scans revealed that this
affected the activity and physical connectivity
in the emotion centres of the women’s brains,
producing changes associated with healthier
emotional processing.
Ingesting microbes may even help people
at risk of depression and anxiety. Several
studies focus on pregnant women because
severe depression affects around 15 per cent
of women during and after pregnancy, and can
interfere with their ability to bond with their
babies. In a 2017 study, more than 200 women
were given L. rhamnosus from early pregnancy
to six months after delivery. It found they
had better scores than a control group on
tests of depression and anxiety. The finding
is particularly welcome because many women
are reluctant to take antidepressants during
pregnancy or while breastfeeding. Likewise,
healthy college students who took off-the-shelf
probiotics for a month showed improvements
on several measures of anxiety, including
panic, worry and negative mood. Students with
the highest stress levels, who took the most
probiotics, showed the biggest improvement.
“I do believe the data supports a role for
microbes modulating how we feel,” says
38 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
“Ingesting
microbes
may even help
BOTH IMAGES: DENNIS KUNKEL MICROSCOPY/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY
people at risk
of depression
and anxiety”
Tillisch. However, she cautions that the studies able to get a fine-grain view of the microbes
in people show correlation, not causation, so it in the guts of over 1000 people. In April,
is possible that mood is affecting the microbes they reported that people diagnosed with
rather than the other way around. depression had reduced numbers of bacteria in
This is all very exciting, but there is still two genera, Coprococcus and Dialister. These,
another hurdle before psychobiotics can then, are potential human psychobiotics.
become mainstream treatments. Currently, we The subjects also completed questionnaires
have only the vaguest notion of which bacteria about their quality of life. This revealed that
might have a good influence on moods. In fact, people with a better quality of life tended to
we don’t even know exactly which microbes have more microbes that produce butyrate,
are in our gut, because many can’t be cultured. a short-chain fatty acid that nourishes and
Thousands of gut microbes have been heals the gut. Their gut microbes also produced
identified by analysing samples for a small more of a precursor to the neurotransmitter
sequence of genetic material called 16S rRNA. dopamine. One of the team, Mireia Valles-
But this can only reliably distinguish bacteria Colomer, subsequently identified a bacterium
down to the genus level. However, a new called Butyricicoccus pullicaecorum 25-3T as
technique is revolutionising microbial another potential psychobiotic.
research. Called whole-genome shotgun This large-scale human study was possible
sequencing, it can find species and even because Belgium keeps extensive electronic
subspecies by looking at every gene in a medical records that are available for scientific
sample taken from any environment. analysis. Several northern European countries
Using this technique, Jeroen Raes and have similar data sets and, with whole-genome
colleagues at KU Leuven in Belgium were shotgun analysis, they are likely to reveal
the identity of more possible psychobiotics.
However, we may be able to do more than
simply finding “good bacteria”. Dinan and
Cryan suspect that just as pathogenic bacteria
share certain genes, there may also be genes
connected with mental health benefits. If
so, then the ideal psychobiotic might be a
genetically modified organism containing
genes from several different bacteria, they say.
That is for the future. There are things we
can all do now to boost the psychobiotics
we already possess. This is such a hot topic
it can surely only be a matter of time before
psychobiotics offer an alternative treatment
Scott C. Anderson is the author, for people diagnosed with a variety of mood
with John Cryan and Ted Dinan, disorders. Instead of targeting the head, we
of The Psychobiotic Revolution could go for the gut. “This new way of looking
published by National Geographic. at brain health is literally turning things
Follow him on Twitter @Psychobiotic upside down,” says Cryan. ❚
 Features
TOMY CHARPENTIER
Hidden hotspots
To preserve the diversity of the world’s wildlife, Kate Ravilious
finds we should focus on unusual terrain, not animals and plants
T
HE disused quarry in Cheffois in
western France doesn’t seem like
it would be high on anyone’s
conservation watchlist. A swampy marsh
leads to a sinister-looking pit pond, guarded
by a dense thicket and overhung by trees and
shrubs. Above the pond, a staircase of rock
walls stretches skywards, while mosses and
ferns monopolise the dank, shady corners.
Although a far cry from classic nature havens
like the Galapagos Islands, this somewhat
uninspiring landscape could rival them in
value. Not only is the quarry brimming with
wildlife, including many rare and threatened
species, but the secrets to its biodiversity
could help save all life on our planet.
It is now widely accepted that Earth is
experiencing a sixth mass extinction event.
The United Nations estimates that about
1 million species are threatened, and many
have already been lost to human activity. We
can’t save everything, so how do we prioritise?
Until now, the focus has been on biodiversity
hotspots, locations with good habitats that
support exceptional concentrations of
different species. But maybe our efforts have
been misguided. Instead of focusing on
specific species or habitats, one of the best
40 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
TOM BEAN ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
ways of putting the brakes on the current mass
extinction may be to protect our planet’s rocks
and soils: its geodiversity. They may not look
like much, but neglected quarries and unloved
scrubland may be key to ensuring the long-
term survival of life on Earth.
This change in perspective emerged around
a decade ago. Mark Anderson at the Nature
Conservancy, a conservation charity in the US,
was assessing which areas of landscape they
should prioritise. “I realised that we were
buying up land to protect the species living
there now, but climate change impacts might
mean this wouldn’t be the right place in the
future,” says Anderson. That led to an epiphany.
Instead of buying land with great biodiversity
today, he decided to look for areas that would
retain their diversity as the planet warmed.
His initial focus was on landscapes with a
wide range of microclimates: places with
“Unusual or contrasting
geologies can
stimulate evolutionary
diversification”
nooks and crannies, slopes and hills, sunshine
and shade, wet and dry. The thinking was
that even if the climate of the region changed
significantly, the local climate variability would
be greater, giving species a greater chance of
finding a suitable new habitat locally.
To test the idea, Anderson and his colleagues
started tracking how species richness changed
with landscape and climate variables across
14 US states and three Canadian provinces.
They found that over 90 per cent of species
diversity in temperate climates could be
explained by just four landscape features:
number of rock types, latitude, elevation
range and amount of chalk or lime bedrock.
“We expected landscape to influence species
diversity, but we were surprised by just how
strong that link was,” says Anderson.
In retrospect, it makes good sense. Geology
affects the chemical and physical properties
of soil and water. As Anderson suspected,
it also influences local climate via the
topography it creates. The more geodiverse
the underlying landscape, the greater the
range of habitats and the more species a
region can support. “It seems that unusual
or contrasting geologies can stimulate
evolutionary diversification,” says Anderson.
 Save our soils
John Crawford reveals a new way to look at soil at New Scientist Live
newscientistlive.com
AVALON/CONSTRUCTION PHOTOGRAPHY/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
Changing focus to geodiversity could
be beneficial in other ways. Collecting
biodiversity data is time-consuming and
expensive. Some of the most biodiverse areas
in the world are almost certainly unrecognised
and unprotected because no one has recorded
what lives there. Geodiversity is easier to
recognise, and getting easier all the time:
Joseph Bailey, a geographer at York St John
University, UK, has been working on a way
to use satellite data to measure geodiversity
automatically. By homing in on very
geodiverse regions, we can pinpoint where
our most biodiverse locations are likely to
be and target our conservation efforts.
The strategy pioneered by Anderson has
gradually gathered traction. He and his
colleagues have now mapped geodiversity
and estimated the resilience of the landscape
across most of the US. The Rockies and desert
areas of the south-west United States are the
last two outstanding areas, which they hope
to complete by the end of the year. Their work
suggests that to give US wildlife the greatest
chance of adapting to and surviving future
climate change, around a quarter of the US
landscape needs to have protected status.
Thanks to the Nature Conservancy and a
number of other agencies, 40 per cent of those
resilient locations are already protected. Now,
their focus is on the remaining 60 per cent.
Their wish list may seem surprising, with
overworked farmland and dull chunks of
prairie often ranking above pristine
wilderness. But Anderson believes that if the
land is in the right place and is underlain by the
right mix of rocks, then these areas can have
greater conservation value. Right at the top of
the list are places that can provide corridors in
GETTY
the landscape, ensuring there is room for
wildlife to move between habitats as the
climate changes. “Our work has identified
some really scary pinch points,” he says.
Disused quarries are another surprising
poster child for the conservation movement.
The range of gradients and variety of
microclimates (hot south-facing slopes and
cool, shady north-facing crannies) make for
a massive range of ecological niches. A 2013
study of Cheffois found that it represents a
beacon of biodiversity in an area where
intensive farming practices have long
threatened wildlife. Its multitude of different
landforms supports 27 kinds of cricket alone,
along with hundreds of plants, including rare
mosses, ferns and rock-loving flowers.
The UK landscape is peppered with such sites,
but many are being sold off as rubbish dumps.
“The pressure to use old quarries as landfill sites
is huge,” says John Faithfull at the University
of Glasgow, UK. Some, such as Trearne quarry
in Ayrshire, have already been stuffed full of
rubbish, and others face uncertain futures.
But there are success stories, too. Thanks to the
campaigning efforts of geologists, two Scottish
open-cast coal mines, Spireslack and Mainshill
Wood, may soon become geoconservation
sites. Today, peregrine falcons nest on and
hunt from Spireslack’s exposed cliffs, whilst
curlews and lapwings relish the undisturbed
moor and grassland nearby.
Geodiversity also applies underwater,
as a recent Finnish study shows. “We found
that the greater the geodiversity, the higher
the aquatic plant species richness,” says
Maija Toivanen from the University of Oulu.
Saving geodiversity on its own won’t save
the planet. Bailey mapped plant species
A new breed of conservation
areas, from left: Cheffois
quarry in France; the Loess hills
of Iowa; the Spireslack open
cast coal mine in Lanarkshire,
Scotland; the lakes of Finland
richness across the UK and compared it against
geodiversity. He found that there was a very
strong link between the two, but that there
were inevitable exceptions to the rule: single
geologies that bred a diversity of life. What’s
more, there are also very geodiverse areas
that are comparatively barren, such as high
mountain environments that are rock-rich
but fairly hostile places to live. “I see
geodiversity as another string to the bow of
conservation, rather than being something
we should switch to completely,” says Bailey.
Even so, it is a string that has so far been
underused. We have done a reasonable job
of protecting majestic landscapes – lush
islands, awe-inspiring coastlines and dramatic
mountaintops – but the less photogenic pieces
of land aren’t as well-loved. If we want to stop
the mass extinction of life on our planet,
we will need to fight it not only on the beaches
and on the hills, but in the floodplains and the
quarries too.  ❚
Kate Ravilious is a science
writer based in York, UK.
Follow her on Twitter
@katerav
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 41
 Features
JASON RAISH

The last-mile P
AUL WRIGHT didn’t know what to
expect when he showed up for his new
job. For the previous few years he had
earned his keep playing online poker. But he
was in a relationship now and needed a stable

revolution
Our love of online shopping has caused a pile-up
of polluting vans. Chris Stokel-Walker navigates
the technology that can reinvent home delivery
income. With a lengthy gap in his CV, he had
decided to take work where there was lots of
demand: as a delivery driver for Amazon.
It was a rude awakening. One of his first
shifts involved driving some 50 kilometres
around the north-east of England, including
through a toll system, dropping off packages as
he went. “By the time you take off the £1.70 toll
charge and the petrol for that huge route, it
makes your hourly rate terrible,” says Wright.
He was driving great distances, criss-crossing
the region, yet earning less than he had from
the comfort of his living room.

42 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019


The woes of workers in the gig economy
have long been making headlines. What is
rarely considered is the problems that
deliveries create for the environment and life
in cities. Vans aren’t just carrying packages and
stressed drivers, they are also belching out air
pollution and clogging up streets – and that
affects us all.
It doesn’t have to be this way. If we are
smart, we can make deliveries less painful for
people like Wright, and less polluting for us all.
Making more deliveries on bikes or even by
delivery robots could help. Some people want
to go even further and completely reinvent the
way we do home delivery.
Ten or 20 years ago, many of us drove to a
supermarket to do food shopping. When you
needed a new skirt or shirt, you went to the
high street. People only had things delivered
when it was really needed, and it had been like
that for decades.
Online shopping still accounts for only
about a tenth of retail sales in many developed
countries. But what is important is the pace of
growth. In 2015, each UK household placed just
over two online orders a month. Next year,
the average household is predicted to order
something online once a week.
It is the final leg of the parcel’s journey where
the problems crop up, known figuratively as
“the last mile”. Until this stage, many goods
have taken the same route, shipped around the
world on huge vessels and then driven along
motorways on lorries. They then arrive at a
distribution centre, normally just outside a
large town, and at this point their routes
diverge, splintering and slowing like a river
delta, as the packages wend their way to busy
residential streets and city centres.
Most deliveries are made by vans. In London
alone, vans make up to 400,000 personal
deliveries to offices every day. The number of
kilometres driven by vans each year is soaring
(see graph, page 45). This is bad news because
vans are more polluting than cars. They spit
out more nitrous oxides – poisonous gases
that can reduce lung function, irritate the
eyes and corrode teeth.
Route of the problem
When Wright arrived for his first shift, he was
guided to a line of vehicles waiting to receive
their packages. He had signed up to work with
the Amazon Flex app, and he used this to sign
in by scanning a QR code in the depot. Then he
was given a collection of packages. When he
was ready to set off, the app calculated a driving
route for him. In theory, its algorithm works
out the most efficient route, although that is a
notoriously difficult problem to solve. Wright
later learned that experienced Flex drivers use
their own nous and other wayfinding apps to
complete their deliveries faster.
These alternative routes can make a big
difference. Oliver Bates at Lancaster University
and his colleagues recently studied 25 UK
delivery drivers who were working on a
single day. They found a pair of drivers who
had delivered the same number of packages
in the same areas, but one managed to drive
a 44 per cent shorter route and spend 35 per
cent less time delivering each package on
average. That suggests drivers can be more
efficient. “A lot of technological advances and
investment has been made on the depot side
in sorting and filtration, but the pointy end
of the spear – the drivers – are still doing things
in much the same way,” says Sarah Wise at
University College London, who worked with
Bates on the study.
The navigation systems used by Amazon,
DPD, FedEx and other delivery firms are often
inefficient, and many are adapted from those
of haulage firms that move freight long
distances, not around cities. One problem they
don’t account for is that the registered address
of a company might not be the place where
packages need to be dropped off. A bigger
annoyance is that the systems take drivers to
the delivery address without factoring in the
need to park. It can be more efficient for drivers
to leave their vehicle in one place and deliver
several items on foot, rather than finding
multiple parking spots. >
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 43
 Seasoned drivers know all this, but
thanks to the low wages, this is a job with
high turnover. Part of the solution could
be to make navigation systems smarter and
more precise, says Julian Allen, who studies
urban infrastructure at the University of
Westminster. There are several systems that
divide Earth’s surface into smaller chunks,
and these could be used to direct drivers to
delivery points more precisely than an address.
Rather than directing a driver to pull up at an
office block on a busy road with no parking,
they could explicitly direct them to the
nearest parking place, then plot a walking
route to the office.
this problem – for both delivery drivers and
commuters – by using internet-connected
sensors to provide real-time information
on empty parking spaces. One example is
18%
of all retail sales in the UK
US start-up Fybr. Its technology involves
embedding a hockey-puck-sized sensor
are made online into the tarmac.
SOURCE: Office of National Statistics The difficulties don’t stop there. Some cities
are making big moves to reduce pollution that
are forcing delivery companies to rethink
9%
of all retail sales in Australia
their methods. In April, London introduced an
ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ), within which
happen online vehicles must meet strict environmental
SOURCE: Statistica standards or pay a toll. The city of Hamburg in
Germany has gone further. In May, it banned
commercial vehicles from its central streets.

Parking predicament
Bates and his colleagues have developed a
system that does this, calculating delivery
routes where driving and walking are
accounted for. When they tested it on a case
study of 144 package deliveries, they could
reduce the time a delivery route took by a fifth.
All this makes what may be an unreasonable
assumption, however: that the parking
spaces are actually available. “Parking is a
pretty big issue,” says Matthias Winkenbach,
director of the Megacity Logistics Lab at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“If you pick a random street in Manhattan
these days, you’ll probably see a UPS or FedEx
truck double-parked on the road in minutes.”
It’s something Wright is very familiar with.
“If I parked legally, my 4 hour shift would have
been 10 hours long,” he says.
A raft of start-ups is trying to alleviate
69%
of people in the US say they shop
Delivery firm UPS decided to move its depot
from outside Hamburg to much closer to the
online. Of those, 37 per cent say centre. This was expensive, but it meant the
they buy something on Amazon last-mile delivery could be handled by couriers
at least once a month on electric or pedal bicycles with trailers. The
SOURCE: NPR/Marist poll firm was forced into the move, but it actually
turned out to be cheaper, says Winkenbach. As
a result, similar schemes are now cropping up
81 billion
The number of kilometres
across Europe and the US. In Paris, for instance,
delivery porters pick up parcels from Vert Chez
driven by vans in the UK in 2017 Vous’s depot on the River Seine, then deliver
SOURCE: Department for Transport them by bicycle and tricycle.
Banning vehicles from cities can raise the
hackles of the delivery firms. More generally,
1 in 4
Proportion of items bought online
experimenting with new delivery methods is
expensive for firms, which can mean they are
in the UK that are returned for loathe to try – which in turn means nothing
refund or exchange changes. Wise’s hope is that by conducting
SOURCE: Government Office for Science research on models of delivery, she can test
out industry-wide changes that would be
beneficial for the whole city, without any one

Popping to the shops

Online shopping may be growing
fast, but in most Western
countries there are still more
people who routinely go grocery
shopping in their cars. Would it
be a greener choice to have their
weekly shop delivered?
The short answer is: it
depends. In 88 per cent of US
households, someone jumps
in the car and drives to a store
to do their main grocery shop.
The country’s Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) totted
up all the kilometres of driving
that entails, assuming they shop
once a week, and calculated
that it would emit 17 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Then it considered two scenarios
in which the groceries are
delivered instead.
In the first, a company uses
a fuel-efficient van and can
deliver the groceries when it
likes, giving it freedom to make
deliveries to addresses that are
close to one another at the same
time. This would emit about
half as much CO2 as each
household driving separately
to a supermarket. In the second
scenario, the deliveries have
to be made at times of the
customers’ choosing with a
less-efficient van. The EPA
reckons this will produce more
CO2 than individuals driving to
the shop. This means that unless
you are banding together with
neighbours to get your shopping
delivered in one go, it is probably
more efficient to drive to the
shops — or better yet, cycle.
You might think all that goes
out of the window if your
groceries are delivered by an
electric vehicle, but it’s not that
simple. In the UK, supermarket
chain Sainsbury’s recently began
trialling two electric vans for
deliveries in London. The trouble
is that the supermarket cannot
guarantee it uses electricity
generated from renewable
sources.

44 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

 Rise of the van
The distance covered by vans is soaring in countries such as the UK and Australia
Vans Cars Motorcycles
UK
100
80
Percentage change in
60
distance covered
40
20
0
-20
1995 2005
SOURCE: UK DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT
company having to make a risky investment in
unproven strategies.
One of her ideas is to introduce a courier’s
courier: a single, centralised carrier that would
organise deliveries for various firms in an area.
That one company would be a single point of
contact for city groups, removing duplication
of vehicles and alleviating the fight for parking
spaces. The carrier would be independent
of the others, so no one firm would have a
monopoly, but it would share resources.
London’s Gnewt Cargo already carries out
some last-mile deliveries using electric vans
on behalf of several companies.
More radical still would be to remove
drivers from the equation entirely. Doha-based
company Airlift and Dutch start-up Geeba
Technologies are testing deliveries by drone
in Rotterdam, while Israeli firm Flytrex is
delivering packages from Icelandic
e-commerce company Aha to around half of
Reykjavík. Wider uptake will be challenging,
however. “The question is: where does the
drone do the delivery?” says Wise. Flytex’s
drones hover outside a building, then lower
the items down on a cord. That won’t work
everywhere.
An easier way to get robots involved may
be to have them remain on the pavement.
In January, a small, six-wheeled blue and
black box began trundling along streets near
Amazon’s Seattle headquarters. These Amazon
Scout robots are currently being accompanied
by a human, but the hope is they will
eventually be able to deliver packages alone.
FedEx has also revealed a similar-looking
Lorries Buses
Australia
400
Percentage change in
300
distance covered
200
100
0
2015 1970 1980 1990
SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND REGIONAL ECONOMICS
lidar-enabled device called the FedEx SameDay
Bot that will be piloted in US cities over the
coming months. Another start-up, Starship
Technologies, has been testing its robots in
Washington DC for more than a year, and
delivered its first package in Milton Keynes,
UK, in November 2018.
These robots are electric, meaning they
are potentially emissions free, and they don’t
contribute to traffic congestion. There is also
evidence that we would have little trouble
accepting them. Researchers from Harvard
University recently had a robot posing as a
delivery agent for the fictional start-up Robot
Grub approach a student dormitory and ask
people to let them in. Sixteen out of 21 people
did so, suggesting that, if anything, we trust
robots a little too much.
Return to sender
The problems with home delivery are
compounded by one thing above all:
many deliveries take more than one attempt.
Drivers often arrive to drop off a parcel only
to find the recipient isn’t at home. That can
mean they have to take it to another depot,
then it has to come back again, multiplying
traffic and pollution.
That many online retailers offer to return
packages for free has an effect on how we shop,
too. Packages ping-pong between buyers and
sellers, with many customers conditioned to
over-order and return. About a quarter of items
bought online in the UK are sent back for
refund or exchange. That figure is on a rapid
“Hamburg in
Germany has
banned all
commercial
vehicles from
its city centre”
2000 2010 2020
upward trajectory: Europe’s second-biggest
delivery company, DPD, for example, saw
a doubling of the number of people who
returned items between 2017 and 2018.
Finding ways to help customers avoid
returns is among the biggest things we can
do to stem the tide of delivery-related traffic.
In fashion, where return rates are among the
highest, there are options. Designers can be
smarter about the sizing of their clothes, for
instance. One group of academics and major
UK retailers is using 3D body scanners to
identify the size and shape of 11,000 people
in the US. That information is used to create
more representative sizing and cuts for clothes
compared with the conventional method of
basing designs on one supposedly
representative body model.
Ultimately, if anything is to change,
consumers must change their behaviour,
which is easier said than done.
“I definitely shop online,” says Wright,
who knows the impact of on-demand
deliveries better than most. “Do I feel guilty?
I mean, a little. But it’s the bourgeois
democracy and capitalistic ideology we live
in,” he says. He surely has a point: no one can
transform the last mile on their own. But if we
all make the right changes, we might just turn
this juggernaut around. ❚
Chris Stokel-Walker is a
freelance journalist based
in Newcastle, UK, and author
of Youtubers
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 45
Features

‘We need to realise

that we are ignorant
about our ignorance’
We can only make the world a better place if we
base our views on facts rather than intuitive guesses,
Ola Rosling tells Jacob Aron

O
LA ROSLING isn’t afraid to point out
your mistakes. He is the president
of Gapminder, the foundation he
set up with his wife Anna Rosling Rönnlund
and his late father Hans Rosling. Gapminder
is dedicated to exposing common
misconceptions about the world and promoting
a fact-based viewpoint. The foundation uses
data visualisations and quizzes to reveal how
little we really know, asking people things
like whether they believe the world is getting
better or worse, and what they think is the
average life expectancy for people globally.
for our tendency to notice bad events rather
than good ones, and to assume that some The fact of
things are destined to happen. the matter
You may have already seen Ola Rosling’s
work via his father’s TED talks. The first, given Economic information
in June 2006 on “the best stats you’ve ever shows that the world
seen”, has now been viewed more than really has got a lot better
16 million times. Last year, the trio behind than we might realise.
Gapminder published Factfulness – a book In 1918, for example,
that identifies the common pitfalls that make 67.1 per cent of
us see the world as a scary place. It became a the world’s population
global bestseller. was living in extreme
poverty (see charts,

He also advocates a “factfulness” mindset,
one that seeks to overcome our brain’s
inbuilt biases. These arise from the mental
“rules of thumb”, known as heuristics, that
we use to make decisions, and are responsible
SOURCE: GAPMINDER.ORG
You make a compelling case that the world is below). A hundred years 
better than we believe. Why don’t we notice this? later, this proportion
For some reason, historically, it was beneficial had dropped to just
to worry about everything, to see problems 10.6 per cent.
and plan for disaster. It was the way previous

1918
EXTREME POVERTY

$/day
02 05 1 2 5 10 20 50 100 200 500

46 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

generations could survive. We are their
offspring, so we tend to use the same tactics,
except that we don’t need them anymore. I am
not a researcher in these fields, but it seems
like humans are predisposed to focus on the
negative things we hear, to see problems.
When we are asked about the world, we look
into our minds and – no surprise – find our
preconceived ideas and all the negative things
we have heard. Then the big picture turns bad.
How can we compensate for this?
By creating the habit of being factful. Today
there is data about almost everything. It is the
first time in human history when we can look
back at the numbers. The data often show a
completely different picture, so we need to
keep track of what is actually true, the facts.
You use a test about global facts and even
Nobel prizewinners are terrible at them, scoring
worse than they would with random guesses.
Do we become more ignorant as we age?
Toddlers and chimpanzees are often much
better than grown-ups when answering our
test. This is because they choose randomly
and not because they understand or think
about the questions. At some point in life,
misconceptions are introduced: we see news
about a terror attack or natural disasters, and
the world out there turns out to be something
Number of people
by income
2018
02 05 1 2
bad. It becomes intuitive to assume that the
world is becoming worse and then people pick
the worst of options in the Gapminder test.
Do you think we can learn from children and their
lack of preconceptions? For example, the climate
strikes led by Greta Thunberg show that
sometimes adults don’t get it right.
I have a huge respect for what Greta has
done. She made my kids care about climate
change, something I couldn’t do.
72 years
Global average life
expectancy at birth
Many of the kids striking don’t have a clue
about climate change but they are morally
concerned about a grown-up society who
cannot answer their questions. This is super
important, just as learning the facts about the
topic. Gapminder is currently developing a
specific test about climate change, which will
help us see if these kids and people around the
world are ignorant or not in this area.
EXTREME POVERTY
5 10 20
Climate change is one area where the book has
been criticised, as it doesn’t fit with your “things
are getting better” narrative. How do you
respond to that?
I’m frustrated by that criticism because it’s
absolutely false to claim that the book neglects
climate change. In the last chapter, it is one of
five global risks we identify [along with global
pandemics, financial collapses, a third world
war and extreme poverty].
The reason to not believe that everything
is getting worse is to sharpen our focus, so that
we can look at these five things that are super
dangerous. Climate is among them. Criticising
the book for not addressing climate change
pretty much indicates that they haven’t read
the whole book.
The book lays out how to adopt a factfulness
mindset to help develop an evidence-based
viewpoint. How did you acquire this mindset?
I think I internalised it while growing up.
My father and I had long conversations
and he taught me to think this way.
He taught himself to think this way.
Sometimes you have heuristics that you’re
not aware of because no one has put a label
on them. When we wrote the book, we sat
down and labelled things, we invented names
for these rules of thumb. Those are concrete
principles to factfulness. >
$/day
50 100 200 500
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 47
 Factfulness
Ola Rosling will speak at New Scientist Live about
why things are better than you think
newscientistlive.com

Four bad things getting better Four good things increasing

CHILDREN DYING OIL SPILLS PROTECTED NATURE HARVEST
Percentage dying before their fifth birthday 1000 tonnes of oil spilled from tanker ships Share of Earth’s land surface protected as Cereal yield (1000 kg per hectare)
636 national parks and other reserves
44% 1979 14.7%
1800 2016 4
1961 2014
1.4
2016
4% 2016 1900
6 0.03%
1800 1900 2000 1980 2000 1900 1950 2000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

PLANE CRASH DEATHS HUNGER LITERACY IMMUNISATION

Deaths per 10 billion passenger miles Share of people undernourished Proportion of people older than 15 Percentage of 1-year-olds who have
(5-year averages) with basic reading and writing skills had at least one vaccination
2100 88%
1929-33 28% 86% 2016
1970 2016

1800
2012-16 11% 10%
1 2015 22%
1980
1940 1960 1980 2000 1970 1800 1900 2000 2010 1800 1900 2000 1980 1990 2000 2010
SOURCE: Factfulness

Can you give examples of these rules of thumb? the results of a survey where we asked
One is the fear instinct, which is the tendency
of humans to pay attention to frightening
things. In 2016, for example, 40 million
passenger flights landed safely at their
85 13 questions about global development
to 12,000 people in 14 countries. Most
people were wrong.
We started the book with the same test
destinations and 10 ended in fatal accidents. Percentage of people because we wanted to expose the readers to
You probably heard about the 10 that their own ignorance. If we had only presented
crashed not the 40 million that were fine. with access to the results of the survey, the readers would
Another chapter is on the blame instinct. electricity in 2014 have thought we were talking about someone
It comes naturally to put the blame on
It com else. People need to be exposed to their own
one individual
i when things go wrong. ignorance to realise they need to learn.
This tendency undermines our ability We tend to think we already know
to solve a problem because we are stuck stuff, which means we have no reasons
with finger-pointing, which distracts us from to learn. To develop a fact-based worldview,
the more complex truth. we need to realise that we are ignorant
about our ignorance.
Spreading these ideas has become a family
mission. Did you ever expect it would result Finally, do you have a favourite statistic?
in a worldwide bestselling book? When my son was 1 year old, he got
It’s kind of a mistake that we didn’t write the meningitis and almost died in my arms.
book earlier. We got famous by visualising data My favourite trend is that child mortality
and with Hans’ first TED talk, where he showed went down from 43 per cent to 4 per cent
visualiz
visualizations that I and Anna had developed between 1800 and 2016. As a parent, having
for six years. It was the first viral TED talk ever. almost lost a child, I know what that number
We thought of ourselves as digital means and it’s the meaning behind that
developers and made fun of books because number that really counts.
they are made of paper. You can get arrogant That’s why I do this work. Our world
when you’re successful in one field and ignore really is improving and we know how to
the possibilities of other fields. This is bad. We Ola Rosling is a Swedish statistician help those last 4 per cent of children. They
realised that communicating to wider and co-founder and president of the are dying for no good reason. We already
audiences is 100 times easier with a book. Gapminder Foundation. He developed have the cure. We know exactly what they
Trendalyzer, a bubble chart tool that need. They need clean water, they need a
So you think the book makes it easier for people was acquired by Google, and led the mum who went to school and they need
to understand a fact-based worldview? firm’s public data team. primary health care and vaccines. ❚
The method of the book is pretty strict.
Besides the rules of thumb, we present Jacob Aron is deputy news editor at New Scientist

48 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019

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At the time of hire the successful candidate must have completed all
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Postdoctoral Fellowships in Cutaneous Biology
NIH T32-funded postdoctoral fellowships are available in the Department of Dermatology
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Information about the Training Program is available at:

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newscientistjobs.com 7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 49

Fellowships for Postdoctoral Scholars
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research on topics of general interest to one or more of the
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ƒApplied Ocean Physics & Engineering
ƒBiology
ƒGeology & Geophysics
ƒMarine Chemistry & Geochemistry
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primary emphasis placed on research promise. Scholarships
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The back pages
Puzzles Feedback Picture of the week Almost the last word The Q&A
Cryptic crossword, Solar roadblock and Our pick of your Wind farm payback Judith Grisel, drug
a cipher about Caesar AI’s robot confusion: discovery-themed and reclaimed trees – user turned addiction
and a quick quiz p52 the week in weird p53 photos p53 readers respond p54 investigator p56

How to be a maker 2 Week 9

Sparrows in, squirrels out

If squirrels are stealing the bird food, Hannah Joshua’s discerning
feeder will stop them in their tracks

IT’S called a bird feeder – but that HOLE ZIP

Hannah Joshua is a science
writer and maker based in
London. You can follow her
doesn’t stop other garden guests
trying their luck. So how can you
select what wildlife it serves? Over
the next two weeks, we will build
a remote-controlled device that
will let you shut up shop when
greedy squirrels come calling.
First, we will assemble the
feeder itself. Take a 2-litre plastic
drinks bottle and cut it in two
about a third of the way down

DAVID STOCK FOR NEW SCIENTIST

on Twitter @hannahmakes from the neck. Next, cut out a
circle lower down the size of a
bottle top. This is big enough
New stuff you need to give birds access, but small
Empty large plastic drinks enough to keep peanuts from
bottle tumbling out. Also, it means we
Cardboard can use a cap from another bottle
Zip ties as the door to our feeder.
Servo motor Now to fit the servo motor that
Zip will open and close the door on
Glue command. Mounting it inside
Nuts (the edible kind) the bottle keeps it away from the
elements. We will need to make
For next week a hole for the servo’s shaft, and
You’ve got it all already two other pairs of holes for some
zip ties to secure the device.
Next in the series Hold the servo inside the bottle,
1 Moisture-sensing plant putting its shaft as close as you can
2 Moisture and temperature- to the door hole without any part
sensing plant of the servo blocking it. Mark the
3 Plant auto-waterer shaft’s position on the bottle, as
4 Tweeting wildlife cam well as either side of the lower
5 Pest scarer and upper halves of the servo.
6 BBQ thermometer Put the servo aside and use a
7 Rain alarm sharp implement to poke holes
8 Mini weather station through the five marks. Widen the
9 Remote controlled central hole just enough so the
pest-proof bird feeder servo shaft can poke through. It
part 1 should be snug, but still able to
10 Remote controlled turn unhindered. Thread zip ties
pest-proof bird through the top and bottom pair
feeder part 2 of holes, making sure both ties
loop around the servo, then
SERVO MOTOR
Make online
Projects so far and a full list of kit required are at
newscientist.com/maker Email: maker@newscientist.com
tighten them to hold it in place.
For the door, take a bottle cap,
make a slit in the side and poke
it onto one of the small plastic
arms that came with your servo.
It should now look like a lollipop.
Glue the two together.
Your feeder can stand alone or
can hang, in which case the birds
might need a perch too. If you
make a small hole below the door,
you can insert a skewer for avian
guests to use while they dine.
Next, we are going to make a
divider to keep the electronics
and peanuts apart. Cut out a circle
of cardboard to match the cross
section of your bottle (you can do
this by drawing round one of the
BOTTLE CAP
cut edges), then chop it in half. In
addition, create a rectangle of card
that is about 10 centimetres long
and the width of the diameter of
the semicircle. With the semicircle
lying flat and the rectangle upright
at 90 degrees, glue the flat edge of
the semicircle to a matching side
of the rectangle, creating an
L-shaped piece. This will slip inside
the bottle as a platform for your
BBC micro:bit. We will need this to
make the brain of the bird feeder.
Lastly, glue your zip around the
cut edges of the bottle so you can
open and close the feeder and
keep the rain off the electronics. It
might not look like much now, but
we will add the magic next week.  ❚

7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 51

The back pages Puzzles
Cryptic crossword #14 Set by Wingding
   



 

 Los Angeles, and the


ACROSS
1 Students’ union has zero
intelligence (4)
3 Idealists of America
welcoming outstanding
Scotsman (8)
9 Close your eyes: it’s good
to hold on to rubbish (7)
10 Small bone kept in part
of Victorian villa (5)
11 Landscape acquiring shape
and gravity, creating an
atmosphere, perhaps? (12)
13 Panel to cause
bewilderment (6)
DOWN
1 Carbon structure made of
graphene but on a new
piece, turned over (8)
2 Cruel, sick, sore (5)
4 Band covered by hill
showing sign of
Parkinson’s disease (6)
5 Medical book’s
unconventional approach
includes massaging head
and originally encouraged
injecting amphetamine (12)
6 Five gripped by a rhythmic
movement go forward (7)
7 Sulphur key to mineral (4)
Answers and the next quick crossword next week.
52 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
   African elephants have the







15 First of strawberries with
their usual accompaniment!
[Excited sound] (6)
17 Computer scientist injecting
nitrogen with sharp object
- a decisive moment (7,5)
20 Delayed initial observations
near French city (2,3)
21 Sharpness of detective
in a large town (7)
22 Strangles software
developer after accepting
deterioration (8)
23 Time to reverse discharge (4)
8 Every English hit thrown
under vehicle in high
radiation zone (3,5,4)
12 May the rebuilt road
lead to quartz (8)
14 Mathematician adding
natural number, imaginary
number, irrational number
and set of real numbers (7)
16 At home, hearing
precipitation, take
a breath (6)
18 Expression of stupid person
giving up time for millions (5)
19 Antelope drops round to get
filtration device (4)
Quick quiz #19 Puzzle set by Angus Walker
1 Of land mammals,
#20 Caesar cipher
second-longest and humans
have the longest. What?
2 Up, down, top, bottom,
strange… what is missing?
JULE BERLIN/GETTY
3 Approximately how
many genes does the
human genome contain:
(a) 20,000, (b) 100,000
or (c) 20 million? How might Caesar get you from 3 to 47?
A bit of general knowledge might help you
4 What historic event linked
here, or some numerology, because there
the University of California,
are two neat solutions to this puzzle.
Stanford Research Institute
on 29 October 1969? Answer next week
5 The Wolf number keeps
track of which solar
phenomenon? #19 The vicar’s age
Solution
Answers below
The vicar was 50 on that day (it was her
birthday).
The family’s three ages must be factors of
2450 (2450 = 1 x 2 x 5 x 5 x 7 x 7). Any
Quick combination of these factors into 3 possible
Crossword #39 ages gives a product of 2450 (e.g. 2, 25
Answers and 49), but they may give different sums
when you add them (e.g. in this case
ACROSS 1 IQ test, 4 Impala, 2+25+49=76).
8 Divided, 9 Chevron, 11 White
For the bishop to be unable to figure out
heat, 12 Polyp, 14 Boron,
15 Emoticon, 16 Endogamy, the exact combination of ages, there must
18 Rebus, 21 Firestone, be at least two options that you can add to
24 Rickets, 25 Boolean, make his age. Listing potential possibilities,
26 El Niño, 27 Hernia you will find that 5, 10, 49, and 7, 7, 50
DOWN 1 Irish, 2 Twitter, both add to 64, and this is the only pair
3/20 Stephen Jay Gould, with the same sum. Therefore 64 must
5 Mohs, 6 Alveoli, 7 Anonymous, be the bishop’s age.
10 Safety Pin, 13 Source Code, The vicar now reveals she is older than
14 Bentonite, 17 Oilskin,
19 Botulin, 22 Nyala, 23 Stun
everyone in the family, and the bishop is
able to work out the family’s ages from this.
If she is 51 or older, he still wouldn’t be able
to tell which combination of ages the family
has. But if the vicar has just turned 50, then
Quick quiz #19 one of the family age groups can now be
Answers eliminated - meaning the only possible
5 Sunspots family ages are 5, 10 and 49.
of the internet
on ARPANET, the forerunner
between two computers
4 The first message sent
around 100,000
researchers’ best guess was
Human Genome Project, most
came as a surprise. Before the
3 (a) 20,000. The low number Get in touch
types of quark Email us at
2 Charm – they are the six
crossword@newscientist.com
1 Lifespan
puzzles@newscientist.com
The back pages Feedback
Sunset boulevard
Almost three years after it opened,
the world’s first solar roadway has
been labelled a disaster. Engineers
announced that the 1-kilometre-
long Wattway in Tourouvre-au-
Perche, north-west France, was
crumbling due to traffic and the
effects of weathering. To make
matters worse, the 3000 square
metres of photovoltaic cells spent
so much time covered in leaves
that they only produced half the
expected energy.
It is difficult to find a positive spin
on a road that can’t be travelled,
made of solar panels that don’t
work. Yet this is unlikely to dent
the allure of solar farms that double
as highways. The premise is that
two things that are good in their
own right would be even better if
combined. This logic holds true for
peanut butter and jelly sandwiches,
but less so for climate change, say,
or root canals.
The €5 million Wattway – or, to
give it its full name, the Wattawaste
of money – never struck Feedback
as a particularly sound investment.
At its inauguration, the former
French energy minister proposed
that 1000 kilometres of solar
roadways would be built in the next
five years. But even that impressive
figure would only amount to
600 hectares of solar panels. By
comparison, a single conventional
farm, Cestas Solar Park in Bordeaux,
covers 250 hectares.
That’s a shame, really, because
the concept is such an elegant way
of making use of an otherwise
wasted resource. As an alternative,
substituting the ever-beating rays
of the sun for the liberal circulation
of hot air, might we suggest a wind
farm in London’s Parliament Square?
Oh the humanity!
Approximately 500 hours of
video are uploaded to YouTube
every minute, too much #content
for mere human eyes to monitor.
That is where AI comes in:
machines capable of distinguishing
violent and graphic content
from your cousin’s make-up
tutorial or baffling list of
egg-based lifehacks. Last
Picture of the week Discovery
week, hobbyists and engineers
discovered that the AI in charge
of YouTube’s moderation was
consistently removing videos
of robot battles, labelling them as
“animal cruelty”. A spokesperson
promised that the error would
soon be resolved and the videos
reinstated. Feedback thinks that
when the robot revolution arrives,
we can’t say we weren’t warned.
Easy rider
We all know that cycling to
work is a good way to reduce
your carbon footprint. So Feedback
was intrigued to hear that British
architect Neil Campbell had broken
the cycling speed record when he
“reached more than 174mph”
on a specially constructed bicycle,
according to BBC News.
That’s certainly one way to @louiseligabite discovering nature on Tūja Beach in Latvia.
reduce your time spent commuting,
though the speeding fines may not The next theme is the future, to commemorate H. G. Wells’s
be worth it. Yet we were struck by birthday on 21 September. Email us your related photos to
a small detail: among the bicycle’s readerpics@newscientist.com by Tuesday 10 September.
special adaptations was a coupling Terms and conditions at newscientist.com/pictureoftheweek-terms
that hooked it to a Porsche Cayenne
sports utility vehicle. After being
towed up to speed, Campbell was The Duraline White Lacquered King’s ransom
released to fly through the timing Floating Shelf is reportedly “100%
gate “under his own power”. invisible when attached to the wall”. Previously, Feedback mused on
As cycling records go, those To be honest, this seems like quite the mortality rates for different
four words may be doing more work an inconvenient quality for chess pieces in battle (17 August).
than the person in the saddle, but something hard that sticks David Shaw takes issue with our
it does raise an interesting question. out of a wall – although holiday claim that all non-drawn games
Might we say Neil Armstrong tchotchkes will probably look end with one king’s demise.
walked to the moon, having been impressive as they float in space, “The king is never captured,”
accelerated by a Saturn V rocket defying the forces of gravity he says. “The game ends when
before stepping onto the regolith and good taste. the king is in check and has no
under his own power? The next Speaking of space, Peter notes valid move.”
time someone chides you about the shelf’s impressive depth: He isn’t wrong – clearly a
the environmental impact of flying “235Mm”, or 235,000 kilometres, rook-y error on our part. Though
to Barbados for your holiday, “which would simplify getting to it does make us wonder, what
Feedback suggests you reassure the moon and back, and for £11”. happens after checkmate?
them: I walked all the way. The Quite a bargain, we agree. But once And why are we, as omniscient
aeroplane simply stopped me you had installed those thousands observers, not party to it?
falling down. of kilometres of shelving, how For such profoundly spiritual
would you ever get any of your questions, we suggest you
Know thy shelf beloved knick-knacks down? consult your closest bishop. ❚
Browsing the catalogue of
building merchants Wickes, Got a story for Feedback?
Peter Oakley has discovered a Send it to New Scientist, 25 Bedford Street,
truly phenomenal piece of home London WC2E 9ES or you can email us at
improvement paraphernalia. feedback@newscientist.com
7 September 2019 | New Scientist | 53
The back pages Almost the last word
Wind economics
What is the carbon payback period
for a large wind farm, taking into
account the energy and resources
used for materials, manufacture
and the construction of supporting
infrastructure? If it is long, say
30 years, are they worth it?
Angela Cotton
Southampton, UK
In 2006, turbine manufacturer
Vestas studied the carbon payback
period for various turbines. This
took into account extraction and
manufacturing of raw materials,
production of the turbines, their
transport, erection, operation,
maintenance, dismantling and
disposal, and the same for their
foundation and the transmission
grid. The figure was between seven
and nine months, depending on
the type of turbine. Other analyses
have come up with similar figures.
Even taking into account the
carbon emitted in transportation
and installation of turbines, the
payback period is nothing like the
30 years the questioner suggests.
It is also worth noting that wind
turbines can be recycled at the
end of their lives.
Linda Latham
Biggar, South Lanarkshire, UK
The question is both easy and
difficult to answer. Easy because
it can never just be about the
cost in financial terms. Difficult
because the exact time is subject
to many influencing factors
including wind, weather and
pollution rates from industry.
Wind farms reduce the amount
of power needed to be produced
from other carbon producing
sources. And they are less costly
to build and maintain than
other low-carbon systems,
such as hydroelectric and
nuclear power plants.
They may look an eyesore
and seem to be on the march,
but remember when power
lines sprang up across our
countryside allowing us all
to access electricity? Now we
hardly notice they are there.
54 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
Why don’t dogs’ noses
appear to be hurt by
stinging nettles?
Find yourself
This tree, in the grounds of
Anglesey Abbey, Cambridgeshire,
UK, has a branch growing in
SPRINGTIME78/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO
a loop, apparently reabsorbed
by the tree. Is this common,
and how can it happen?
Mike Challen
Singleton, West Sussex, UK
This is a common sight in planted
woodland. A plantation of trees
This week’s new questions will have a nurse crop, usually of
fir trees, planted quite close to the
Nettle effect How is it that stinging nettles don’t seem main crop to encourage straight,
to affect my dog’s sensitive nose and ears or his relatively upward growth of the trunks. This
fur-free belly while I respond rapidly with a very painful nurse crop is removed over time.
skin rash? Jan Jones, Bramcote, Nottinghamshire While the dark firs still stood,
this branch turned away from
Star quality With the enormous pressure and temperatures them, towards the light the main
within Jupiter, what’s the chance that one day it could ignite trunk is growing in. After a while,
and turn itself into a star? Darko Kojic, Banja Luka, the increasing canopy has shaded
Bosnia and Herzegovina the rest of the branch out, leaving
this stub. The expanding trunk
has formed around it exactly
like a rose or fruit tree graft.
Daniel Baird of the site. The resulting I have cut large beech trees
Cirencester, Gloucestershire, UK assessment becomes a bankable in plantations where the whole
Several wind turbine life-cycle document that is used to secure branch has been totally absorbed,
assessments have been finance for the project from but is still live wood in the trunk.
undertaken and are available bankers. There are then There is obviously a size at which
online. An onshore wind turbine negotiations with grid operators the expanding trunk cannot
can be expected to repay this and power consumers, among push the branch aside, and most
energy debt in between about whom there is no mention of absorbed branches are of this
six and nine months of operation. saving the planet or tree hugging. size or bigger.
Offshore wind turbines take The embodied energy of the
a little longer, their marginally project and associated carbon
higher generation outweighed is represented in the capital
by the extra steel needed. Beyond expenditure of the build. If
30 years, even with refurbishment this cost cannot be covered,
if necessary, the energy return the project is a no-go.
on investment just gets better. It is also worth bearing
in mind that once such an
Alex Hromas installation is paying its capital
Sydney, Australia cost and covering its maintenance,
This question is often based on any energy generated in excess
the premise that renewable energy of that has a very low marginal
systems are built by people who cost – an extremely important
are technically and financially economic consideration.
naive. This is not the case.
In the UK, for example, sites are
chosen on the basis of wind data Want to send us a question or answer?
from the Met Office. Actual wind Email us at lastword@newscientist.com
conditions are then measured for Questions should be about everyday science phenomena
several years to assess the viability Full terms and conditions at newscientist.com/lw-terms
 ‘The Folio Society’s splendid new editions are masterpieces
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The back pages The Q&A
As a child, what did you want to
do when you grew up?
I spent most of my first decade in creeks turning
over rocks, so maybe I wanted to be a scientist.
Explain what you do in one easy paragraph.
I’m interested in understanding what is different
about the brains of those who are at high or low
risk of addiction. We know that a large part of
the variance is inherited, but most of the
biological risk remains unexplained.
Why did you end up working in this field?
I had my first experience with alcohol at age 13
and spent the next 10 years taking any and every
mind-altering substance I could get my hands on.
Judging from the nearly transcendent experience
of that first drink, I was probably one of those
innately at risk. I ended up in a treatment centre.
Faced with a choice between an early grave and
abstinence, I wanted neither and thought curing
addiction would provide a way out.
Did you have to overcome any particular
challenges to get where you are today?
Ha! I’d been expelled from three schools by the
time I came up with this scheme. Fortunately,
addicts are known for resourcefulness and
perseverance despite adversity, and these
qualities were an asset in graduate school too.
Were you good at science at school?
Science courses were my favourites, so yes, when
I went to class I tended to do well in those.
What’s the best piece of advice
anyone ever gave you?
Someone once recommended that I “keep
showing up”. I’ve benefited from sustained effort,
even when things don’t seem to be going well.
Is there a discovery or achievement you
wish you’d made yourself?
I was astounded by the work of Nachum Dafny
in the late 1980s, showing that opiate addiction
depended on an intact immune system. Now,
30 years later, there’s a burgeoning appreciation
of the critical role of immune signalling in the
brain in stress, pain and addiction.
56 | New Scientist | 7 September 2019
Neuroscientist Judith Grisel is exploring why
some people are more prone to drug addiction
than others – using her own experience of
addiction to help
How has your field of study changed in
the time you have been working in it?
I feel like we’ve gained humility. Neuroscience is
such a new field, and it seems there is much more
that we don’t know than there was when I started.
If you could have a long conversation
“I’d bet that
with any scientist, living or dead, answers to big
who would it be?
questions in
Marian Diamond, who found the first evidence
that the brain changes with experience, now
known as neuroplasticity. Or Candace Pert,
neuroscience
who discovered opiate receptors. aren’t going to
What scientific development do you be found inside
hope to see in your lifetime?
I’m really happy that sex differences in our heads”
neurobiology are finally being given serious
attention. I think we will continue to find
differences and that these are going to further
understanding about general brain function.
Do you have an unexpected hobby, and
if so, please will you tell us about it?
I’m a big fan of live music, and especially keen
on so-called jam bands. Much of my extra time
and money goes toward Phish shows.
How useful will your skills be after the
apocalypse?
Relevant skills include curiosity and a willingness
to take risks and to try new things.
OK, one last thing: tell us something that
will blow our minds…
I’d bet that answers to big questions in
neuroscience aren’t going to be found inside
our heads. Everything is connected, and it is
impossible to understand the brain out of its
broader context – involving such disparate
influences as the night sky, microbiota,
stress and each other.  ❚
Judith Grisel is professor of psychology at Bucknell
University in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania. Her book
Never Enough: The neuroscience and experience
of addiction is out now
CREDIT: TAYLOR HILL/GETTY IMAGES