Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(15200477 - Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society) Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction
(15200477 - Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society) Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction
ABSTRACT
A number of studies in meteorological journals have documented some of the constraints to the effective use of
climate forecasts. One major constraint, the considerable difficulty people have in estimating and dealing with prob-
abilities, risk, and uncertainty, has received relatively little attention in the climate field. Some of this difficulty arises
from problems known as cognitive illusions or biases. These illusions, and ways to avoid them impacting on decision
making, have been studied in the fields of law, medicine, and business. The relevance of some of these illusions to cli-
mate prediction is discussed here. The optimal use of climate predictions requires providers of forecasts to understand
these difficulties and to make adjustments for them in the way forecasts are prepared and disseminated.
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
With the development of meteorological science and the continual refinement of the
technologies used in its practical application, the need to produce a new edition of the
International Meteorological Vocabulary (IMV) became evident (the original edition was
published in 1966). This volume is made up of a multilingual list of over 3500 terms
arranged in English alphabetical order, accompanied by definitions in each of the
languages (English, French, Russian, and Spanish) and an index for each language. This
new edition has been augmented with numerous concepts relating to new meteorological
knowledge, techniques, and concerns. It should help to standardize the terminology used in
this field, facilitate communication between specialists speaking different languages, and
aid translators in their work.
WMO No. 182, 784 pp., softbound, color-coded index, $95 (including
postage and handling). Please send prepaid orders to: WMO
Publications Center, American Meteorological Society, 45 Beacon St.,
Boston, MA 02108-3693. (Orders from U.S. and Canada only.)
International
Meteorological
Vocabulary
13 75
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones is available for $ 6 5 list/$45 members. Prices include shipping and
handling. Please send prepaid orders to Order Department, American Meteorological Society, 4 5 Beacon St.,
Boston, MA 0 2 1 0 8 - 3 6 9 3 or call (617) 2 2 7 - 2 4 2 5 . Visa, MasterCard, or American Express accepted.