Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by Vincent Kott
©2014 by Vincent Kott
Risk Disclaimer
Trading and investing is risky. The author believes all information contained
in the book to be accurate, but does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the
information in this book or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation
of the purchase or sale of any securities. All information, data and analysis in
this book is for informational and educational purposes only and is not a
recommendation to buy or sell a security. Under no circumstances, including,
but not limited to, negligence, shall the author be liable to you for direct,
indirect, consequential, incidental, special, punitive or exemplary damages
arising from the use of this material. The author does not warrant or make any
representations concerning the accuracy, likely results, or reliability of the
use of the materials in this book.
There are many ways to use technical analysis to generate profitable trades
with enticing risk/reward ratios. However, the sellers of technical analysis
based products often exaggerate the power of simple technical tools. To
become a successful trader, you must not only apply your methods properly,
but also use your technical tools in a different way than others do. In this
short eBook, you will discover a new method for analyzing volume and how
it can be applied in a trading strategy.
As a side note, trading is very difficult. The purpose of this eBook is to share
a new idea and make you think about volume in a different way. Volume spike
analysis can be blended with your current method and improve your trading.
This eBook is purely for educational purposes. I do not encourage trading
financial products with real money unless you are a professional. You will
find instructions on how to install the indicators mentioned in this book in
Chapters 14 and 15.
Chapter 2: VOLUME
A trade will produce two pieces of data: volume and price. A common flaw
when technical analysis is applied is to underweight the importance of
volume. Chart patterns can look wonderful, but unless they are combined
with proper volume behavior, they can be misleading. Volume is one of the
most important tools in trading in my opinion. Every type of investor or
trader uses volume. Fundamental investor or technical trader, they all use it.
Volume shows how many shares have been traded in a given period of time.
Price bars with high volume are more informative than bars with low
volume. Many patterns emerge from volume bars. There are also plenty of
technical tools that are derived from volume.
Charles Dow believed that volume leads price. Most likely this has
something to do with the amount of insider trading present back then. People
with insider information about a company will aggressively buy the stock
before critical news is released, therefore volume increases will lead price
increases. In today's market, the situation is different. Algorithmic trading
makes up 73% of volume according to recent reports and insider trading
laws are much more stringent. There are situations where volume tells you
more than price and vice versa. Therefore, in order to properly analyze a
stock chart, you must combine price action with volume patterns.
Chapter 3: HOW TO INTERPRET VOLUME
As mentioned, volume can lead or lag price action. In both cases, volume
will give you valuable information. I recommend interpreting volume in four
ways:
3- Volume as a leading factor: When volume leads the price of a new trend.
A large increase in volume combined with low price volatility is a powerful
hint that market participants are active and that a new potential trend might
begin. A large increase in volume can predict an increase in price volatility.
The easiest way of looking at volume is to use a simple volume bar tool.
Many traders look for volume spikes in combination with an interesting price
pattern. This can be helpful, however, how do you judge the size of the
volume bar? A volume spike on a price chart might look big relative to the
previous few (Figure 1). However, we do not know how big the spike is
relative to the stock’s historical volume spikes. If it appears to be the largest
volume bar in the last few, what information does that give you? It can be
misleading since you do not know what size of volume spikes have occurred
in the past. Most websites with price charts will automatically give you
volume bars at the bottom of the chart (e.g. www.stockcharts.com).
Figure 1: Simple volume bars
VWAP has greatly increased in popularity in the past decade. It stands for
volume weighted average price. To calculate VWAP, sum up the dollar value
of every transaction (price * shares) and then divide this number by the total
number of shares traded on that day. When you plot VWAP on a chart, it looks
very similar to a moving average (Figure 4). Similar to the moving average of
volume bars, VWAP is a lagging indicator. On a daily chart, VWAP can help
assess liquidity points at different levels.
This tool is popular with institutional investors since it helps them evaluate
how well their orders are being executed. If your average price for a long
position is lower or at the VWAP level (for a given period), then your
executions are deemed satisfactory or good. If your entry price is higher than
the VWAP, then this means the trader did not execute the order efficiently.
VWAP is also very popular with algorithmic traders. Many advanced black
boxes use some sort of VWAP derivative in their formula. However, this is a
topic for another book. Intraday VWAP can be useful for day traders since
algorithms tend to buy or sell at the VWAP.
Figure 4: Volume weighted average price (VWAP) is the red line on the chart.
Volume by price
A large volume level or cluster of levels will give you valuable information.
When a stock is in an uptrend and you are looking for areas of support to buy
the pullback, if your chart has a large volume by price level, you can expect
there to be buyers who will support the stock (Figure 7). Similarly, in a
situation where the stock is in a downtrend, you can find good shorting
opportunities when the stock retraces to a large volume by price level (Figure
8).
Figure 7: There is a large volume level around $130 and $110. These levels
are typically support when a pullback occurs.
Figure 8: There is a large volume level around $400. This is where are short
seller would look to short this stock.
When a stock has been range bound for quite some time, and there is a notable
volume by price level bar, if the stock breaks out, you can expect a powerful
move (Figure 9). The larger the volume bar, the more powerful the velocity
of the break. When a stock is range bound and happens to break a large level
or cluster of levels to the downside, you can expect many investors to have
their stop loss triggered and this could start the beginning of a new downtrend
(Figure 10).
Figure 9: The stock was range bound with a large volume level around $85.
Once the stock broke out from this area, a strong uptrend emerged.
Figure 10: The breakdown of the stock below the cluster of volume between
$13 and $15 led to a quick slide in price.
Similar to my volume spike tool, volume by price is intuitive and logical.
This tool is very helpful since you can gauge the level of interest at different
price levels. For more information and to analyze stocks with this method, go
to: www.stockcharts.com.
Chapter 5: VOLUME SPIKE ANALYSIS (VSA): VOLUME SPIKE
INDICATOR
In Figure 11, you can see the volume spike indicator at the bottom of the
chart. Look at the pink volume bar. In this case, the pink volume bar indicates
it is the largest volume bar that has occurred in the past 200 periods. The
turquoise volume bar indicates that on that trading day, the volume bar was
the largest relative to the past 20 periods. The reason I say 100 periods and
20 periods is because this tool can be used on various times frames including
intraday minute, hourly or even monthly. These volume spikes can be applied
to your preferred time frame.
This type of analysis has value for traders who trade with intraday charts,
daily charts or even weekly charts. The information lies within its simplicity.
Many professionals who work for asset management firms claim they do not
believe in chart analysis. I understand why they think this way although I do
not completely agree with their reasons. However, if a large volume bar
occurs and they tell you this gives you no valuable information, they are
simply wrong. If the daily volume on a stock is the highest it has been in the
past year, this is very important information. You would be handicapping
yourself as an investor if you do not look at volume, especially when it is at
extreme levels. The volume spike indicator makes it easy to spot these
situations. It can be used by automated traders as well as manual traders. For
example, an automated trader can add a criterion that the volume bar at the
entry must be greater than the past X volume bars. This can easily be back
tested to find the optimal number of back periods. Adding a volume condition
may improve your black box’s performance. The manual trader can develop
visual patterns to make his trading decisions quicker.
Chapter 6: VOLUME SPIKE INDICATOR PARAMETERS
As previously mentioned the parameters for the volume spike indicator need
to be specified. For my trading purposes, I have found that the best parameters
are:
Standard volume bar color: Red
If the current volume bar is greater than the past 4 volume bars, highlight
the volume bar blue.
If the current volume bar is greater than the past 20 volume bars, highlight
the volume bar green.
If the current volume bar is greater than the past 200 volume bars,
highlight the volume bar pink.
These parameters will change depending on which type of trader you are. For
my purposes, I have found that these 3 filters give me the most valuable
information. If a blue volume bar appears (largest volume bar in the previous
4 periods), I take this as a warning that something might be happening with the
stock. If a green bar appears (largest volume bar in the previous 20 periods), I
am mildly confident that something may be happening although it may lead to a
minor stock price move. If a pink bar appears (largest volume bar in the
previous 200), I am very confident that something is happening and must make
a trading decision. I found that any volume spike going back more than 250
periods does not give additional information. Also, if you are running your
charts on an eSignal or Trade Station platform, you will be required to wait
for the past data to be loaded. Sometimes this can take a few seconds or even
with the old eSignal you must manually drag your chart back in order to load
the data (very annoying). Therefore I recommend staying with a maximum
parameter of 200 periods back.
Chapter 7: VSA STRATEGY -VOLUME BREAKOUT
Breakout trading is one of the most popular forms of trading amid traders. It
has been around for many years. The problem with buying a stock on
breakout is that it usually involves buying a stock that is already overbought.
It is very hard to achieve an acceptable risk/reward ratio by simply buying
breakouts. With the use of volume spike analysis, you can trade breakouts
with a higher probability of success. The strategy revolves around trading
price levels where large volume was traded.
Long breakout trading example
For this example I will be using the same parameters as in Figure 11. If the
volume bar is the largest in the past 200 days, and the close of the bar is
greater than the open, you would want to buy the breakout of the high of that
bar’s day. (Figure 13)
Figure 13: Breakout trading using volume spike analysis (VSA)
Most trading books advise buying stocks once they have broken out of a level
on high volume. You may have some success trading this way, but this method
is reactive instead of proactive because you are waiting for volume to come
in after the breakout has occurred. If you apply volume spike analysis, you
know ahead of time which levels will most likely lead to successful trades.
When combining volume spike analysis with breakout trading, traders have a
different perspective. As a side note, trading around volume spike levels is
not as easy as it seems. Usually the stock will move extremely quickly and it
is very important to pay attention to the stock and prepare your orders to pull
the trigger as quickly as possible.
Such large volume spikes are easy to notice. A cluster of large volume spikes
after a long trend is also a very powerful signal. If a cluster of volume spikes
occur within a short period, this is a signal of price exhaustion and a reversal
is imminent. Many stocks during the tech bubble ended their run this way and
were followed by steep moves to the downside.
Chapter 9: VSA TO FIND THE RIGHT STOCKS
There are many other ways traders can use volume spike analysis:
Manual traders can use volume spikes for confirmation of volume coming
into a stock after entering a position (for any strategy, not just breakout or
breakdown)
Automated traders can add a volume filter for volume spikes in order to
improve the risk/reward ratio of their black boxes.
Comparing the volume spikes of up days to the volume spikes of down days
Creating new technical indicators
Chapter 11: VSA SPIKE LEVELS
Here are the details for this volume spike level indicator:
If the current volume bar is greater than the past 200 volume bars AND the
open is lower than the close, draw a green line at the high of the day.
If the current volume bar is greater than the past 200 volume bars AND the
open is higher than the close, draw a red line at the low of the day.
I have mentioned that waiting for volume to come in after a breakout is
reactive instead of proactive. By having these lines drawn on your chart
ahead of a breakout, you can visually anticipate the price moves before it
occurs. Similar to the volume spike indicator, you can modify the parameters
of the volume spike. If you are looking for small volume spike levels, you
can set the parameter to the past 20 or 50 volume bars.
With this indicator, the level or line is always drawn at the high of the day for
stocks that have large volume spikes and the stock has appreciated during the
price bar. The level or line is always drawn at the low of the day for stocks
that have large volume spikes and the stock has depreciated in value during
the price bar.
This is a simple tool to help traders locate levels where trades can be
initiated. (Figure 18) As a trader, you are trying to follow many things during
the day: news, your positions, finding new trades etc... This tool saves you
time and effort.
Figure 18: Volume levels are simple and intuitive
Chapter 12: VSA CANDLESTICKS
Manual traders can take volume spike analysis to a higher level by mixing
this concept into their candlesticks. This indicator is similar to Equivolume
charts. In Equivolume charts, the volume information is given on a chart by
the width of each individual candlestick. The bigger the volume is within a
period, the wider the candlesticks. (Figure 19)
Since many people use candlesticks to analyze price action, adding volume
spike analysis into the chart adds a second dimension. Traders can also
adjust the parameters of the VSA candlesticks to suit their trading style.
Step 2: Copy the code found below (make sure you copy everything) starting
below
========================================================
=============
Project Description:
//External Variables
var grID = 0;
var nBarCounter = 0;
var aFPArray = new Array();
var bInitialized = false;
setPriceStudy(false);
setStudyTitle( STUDY_TITLE );
setCursorLabelName("Volume", 0);
setShowTitleParameters( false );
//unrem this if you don't want the study to update on every tick
//setComputeOnClose();
grID = 0;
//script is initializing
if ( getBarState() == BARSTATE_ALLBARS ) {
return null;
}
if ( bInitialized == false ) {
aLevels.sort( sortASC );
bInitialized = true;
}
nBarCounter++;
vol = volume(0);
x=0;
while( x<aLevels.length ) {
if ( isHigher( aLevels[x].Len, vol, volume() ) ) {
setBarFgColor( aLevels[x].Color, 0 );
break;
}
x++;
}
/*************************************************
SUPPORT FUNCTIONS
**************************************************/
function sortASC( r1, r2 ) {
if ( r1.Len<r2.Len ) {
return(1);
}
if ( r1.Len>r2.Len ) {
return(-1);
}
return(0);
}
while( x<_len+1 ) {
if ( _src.getValue(-x)>=_val ) {
return( false );
}
x++;
}
return( true );
Step 3: Paste the code into the blank eSignal Formula window
********************************************************************
**/
//External Variables
var grID = 0;
var nBarCounter = 0;
var nLookback = 0;
var aFPArray = new Array();
var bInitialized = false;
var bBail = false;
var bPrimed = false;
var cExtend = 2;
var cTextColor = Color.navy;
var cFontSize = 10;
var cDecimals = 2;
setPriceStudy(true);
setStudyTitle( STUDY_TITLE );
setShowTitleParameters( false );
//unrem this if you don't want the study to update on every tick
//setComputeOnClose();
grID = 0;
//script is initializing
if ( getBarState() == BARSTATE_ALLBARS ) {
return null;
}
if ( bInitialized == false ) {
cTextColor = fColor3;
cFontSize = Math.round( fFontSize );
cDecimals = Math.round( fDecimals );
cLongColor = fColor1;
cLongThick = Math.round( fThick1 );
cLongType = eval( "PS_"+fLineType1.toUpperCase() );
cShortColor = fColor2;
cShortThick = Math.round( fThick2 );
cShortType = eval( "PS_"+fLineType2.toUpperCase() );
nBarCounter = 0;
bPrimed = false;
bInitialized = true;
}
//-- Step #1: logic to find new volume spikes and add
//-- them into the array
if ( nBarCounter>nLookback ) {
v = volume(-1);
if ( b==true ) {
nDir = close(-1)>=open(-1) ? 1 : -1;
if ( nDir==1 ) {
oObj = new Object();
oObj.Price = high(-1);
oObj.Type = 1;
oObj.Offset = nBarCounter;
oObj.Broken = false;
oObj.Active = true;
aLevels.unshift(oObj);
oObj = null;
}
if ( nDir==-1 ) {
oObj = new Object();
oObj.Price = low(-1);
oObj.Type = -1;
oObj.Offset = nBarCounter;
oObj.Broken = false;
oObj.Active = true;
aLevels.unshift(oObj);
oObj = null;
}
}
x=0;
while( x<aLevels.length ) {
if ( aLevels[x] != null ) {
if ( aLevels[x].Active==true ) {
//-- this is a Long level
(drawn on a high)
if ( aLevels[x].Type==1
){
//-- if not yet
marked as broken, check to see if it
//-- is now
broken
if (
aLevels[x].Broken==false && high(-1)>aLevels[x].Price ) {
aLevels[x].Broken=true;
}
}
//-- this is a Short level
(drawn on a high)
if ( aLevels[x].Type==-1
){
//-- if not yet
marked as broken, check to see if it
//-- is now
broken
if (
aLevels[x].Broken==false && low(-1)<aLevels[x].Price ) {
aLevels[x].Broken=true;
}
}
}
}
x++;
}
}
nBarCounter++;
if ( isLastBarOnChart()==true ) {
if ( bPrimed==false ) {
bPrimed = true;
drawUpdateLines( fDays/1, true,
fHideBroken==true );
}
}
return( null );
}
/*************************************************
SUPPORT FUNCTIONS
**************************************************/
function drawUpdateLines( _days, _firstin, _hidebroken ) {
var x;
var p, n, s;
clearLines();
clearText();
x=0;
while( x<aLevels.length ) {
if ( aLevels[x] != null ) {
//-- first, check the day's back and make sure this
event
//-- occurred within the prescribed number of days
if ( aLevels[x].Active==true && (
getBarState()==BARSTATE_NEWBAR || _firstin==true ) ) {
n = (nBarCounter-aLevels[x].Offset)+1;
if ( checkDaysBack( n, _days )==true ) {
aLevels[x].Active = false;
}
}
while( x<_len+1 ) {
if ( getDay(-x)!=getDay(-(x+1)) ) {
days++;
}
if ( days>_max ) {
return(true);
}
x++;
}
return( false );
}
while( x<_len+2 ) {
if ( _src.getValue(-x)>=_val ) {
return( false );
}
x++;
if ( x>=y ) {
return( false );
break;
}
}
return( true );
//External Variables
var grID = 0;
var nBarCounter = 0;
var aFPArray = new Array();
var bInitialized = false;
var nStatus = 0;
var nDir = 0;
var nP1 = 5;
var nP2 = 10;
var nP3 = 20;
var nP4 = 50;
setPriceStudy(true);
setStudyTitle( STUDY_TITLE );
setShowTitleParameters( false );
setColorPriceBars( true );
//unrem this if you don't want the study to update on every tick
//setComputeOnClose();
grID = 0;
if ( bInitialized == false ) {
setDefaultPriceBarColor( fDefColor );
bInitialized = true;
}
nBarCounter++;
if ( nStatus==0 ) {
if ( nDir==1 ) {
setPriceBarColor( fUpPriceColor1, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
else {
setPriceBarColor( fDnPriceColor1, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
}
if ( nStatus==1 ) {
if ( nDir==1 ) {
setPriceBarColor( fUpPriceColor2, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
else {
setPriceBarColor( fDnPriceColor2, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
}
if ( nStatus==2 ) {
if ( nDir==1 ) {
setPriceBarColor( fUpPriceColor3, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
else {
setPriceBarColor( fDnPriceColor3, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
}
if ( nStatus==3 ) {
if ( nDir==1 ) {
setPriceBarColor( fUpPriceColor4, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
else {
setPriceBarColor( fDnPriceColor4, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
}
if ( nStatus==4 ) {
if ( nDir==1 ) {
setPriceBarColor( fUpPriceColor5, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
else {
setPriceBarColor( fDnPriceColor5, fWickColor,
fThinWicks==true, fHollowCandle==true );
}
}
return( null );
/*************************************************
SUPPORT FUNCTIONS
**************************************************/
function volScan( _vol, _p1, _p2, _p3, _p4 ) {
var x = 1;
var nState = 0;
var nMax1 = 0;
var nMax2 = 0;
var nMax3 = 0;
var nMax4 = 0;
while( x<=_p4 ) {
if ( x<=_p1 ) {
nMax1 = Math.max( nMax1, volume(-x) );
}
if ( x<=_p2 ) {
nMax2 = Math.max( nMax2, volume(-x) );
}
if ( x<=_p3 ) {
nMax3 = Math.max( nMax3, volume(-x) );
}
if ( x<=_p4 ) {
nMax4 = Math.max( nMax4, volume(-x) );
}
x++;
}
if ( _vol>nMax1 ) {
nState = 1;
}
if ( _vol>nMax2 ) {
nState = 2;
}
if ( _vol>nMax3 ) {
nState = 3;
}
if ( _vol>nMax4 ) {
nState = 4;
}
return( nState );
* If you are having a hard time copying this code from your Kindle tablet, I
strongly recommend you open the Kindle app on your desktop computer to
copy and paste the code.
15. ADJUSTING VSA SETTINGS ON ESIGNAL
For example, if a trading period occurred in the past where the volume spike
was greater than the previous 200 volume bars, then a line will be drawn on
your chart. If the volume occurred on an up day, the line will be drawn at the
high of the day. If the volume occurred on a down day, the line will be drawn
at the low of the day. You can change the color of the volume line as well.
VSA CANDLESTICKS
The VSA Candlesticks are based on the Lookback parameter. For this
indicator, you have 4 Lookback periods. You will also need to select the
color for the standard candlesticks (usually red and green), as well as for the
custom candlesticks. The candlesticks will change colors based on the
volume of each period. According the settings in the image below, every time
a volume bar is greater than the past 200 periods, the price candlestick will
turn to the color pink.
The End
BONUS- SAMPLE FROM “EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW
ABOUT TRADING”
Trading Strategies
- Look for catalysts that are big enough to overcome the risks
- Macro based events are impossible to gain an edge over the market (Macro
event cannot be your catalyst)
- Look for catalysts that can be identified and quantified through
comprehensive research
- Make a short list of two to four critical factors per stock you trade or
follow
- The best traders combine catalyst trading with technical analysis
- Anticipation of a new exciting product can be seen in the stock chart price
increase weeks before the announcement
- As more and more investors hear about a potential game changing product,
option premiums and stock values tend to increase with the excitement
- A trader needs to be aware of all potential development that could cause
large price moves in a stock
- The trader will buy the stock when very few people are talking about the
announcement and sell before the news is announced: Buy the rumor, Sell
the news
Earning’s Surprise
Short Interest
- Do not sell short anything just because its valuation appears silly (Valuation
is not a catalyst)
- Twice a silly valuation is not twice as silly. It is still just silly
- Best shorts are frauds. Look for fraud accusations
- Figure out what the market thinks
- Can the company be taken over?
- Use puts instead of shorting (less risky)
Institutional Ownership
- www.googletrends.com
- www.stocktwits.com/
- www.stockpickr.com/
- www.marketminder.com
- www.frontlinethoughts.com
- www.j3sg.com
- www.inside-monitor.com
- www.carpenteranalytix.com
- www.btobonline.com/vertical
- http://www.greenwich.com/
- http://www.glgresearch.com/
To purchase:
http://www.amazon.com/Everything-Need-Know-About-Trading-
ebook/dp/B00G4QZPCM/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital-
text&ie=UTF8&qid=1395277338&sr=1-
1&keywords=everything+you+need+to+know+about+trading