Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

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Journal of South American Earth Sciences

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Integrated hazards maps of the Tacaná Volcanic complex,

Mexico-Guatemala: Ashfall, block-and-ash flows, and lahars
Rosario Vázquez a, *, José Luis Macías b, José Luis Arce c
a
Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores UNAM-Unidad Juriquilla, Campus UNAM Blvd. Juriquilla, 3001, Juriquilla, Querétaro, Mexico
b
Instituto de Geofísica UNAM-Unidad Morelia, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro 8701 Ex, Hacienda San José de la Huerta, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico
c
Instituto de Geología UNAM, Circuito de la Investigación Científica, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México, Mexico

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The Tacaná Volcanic Complex (TVC) is an active volcano, located on the border between Mexico and Guatemala,
Tacaná volcanic complex in the westernmost part of the Central American Volcanic Arc. The TVC has produced effusive and explosive
Integrated hazards maps activity during the past 300 ka through the emplacement of lava flows, pyroclastic deposits, debris avalanches
Numerical models
and lahars. During the last 10 ka, at least 11 eruptions have occurred, with three small phreatic explosions
Mexico
Guatemala
documented in 1855–1856, 1949 and 1986. This work presents volcanic hazards maps of the TVC that integrate
Block-and-ash flows the results of analyzing two eruptive style scenarios: dome-collapses and Plinian-type eruptions and the lahars
Lahar triggered by both these hazards. The extents and expected distributions for each of these phenomena were
Ashfall assessed using numerical models and the results were calibrated with recent field data. The simulation results
were merged to prepare three new volcanic hazards maps, which depict on a color scale the hazard level fore­
casted for each phenomenon (high – red, moderate – orange, and low – yellow). The maps show that the total
extension of block-and-ash flows will be restricted towards the volcano base, reaching a maximum distance
towards Guatemala of ~5 km, and ~10 km in Mexico; while lahars could reach up to 50 km downstream along
the main rivers that drains the complex (i.e. Coatán, Cahoacán and Suchiate rivers) that would flood important
urban centers mostly over Mexican territory. Ashfall would cover an area of ca. 8000 km2, inhabited by ~2
million people in both countries. Hence, renewed eruptive activity of the TVC would be catastrophic not only
because of the loss of human life but also for its adverse impact on economic activity based on corn, coffee, and
banana plantations, together with the disruption of communication and transportation systems between Mexico
and Central America.

1. Introduction
The preparation of hazards maps for active or potentially active
volcanoes has long been recognized as the first step for risk mitigation of
vulnerable communities (Tilling, 2005). In the case of volcanic hazard
maps, these are visual, spatial depictions of the areas that could be
potentially impacted by hazardous volcanic phenomena (Lindsay and
Robertson, 2018), including ashfall, lava flows, pyroclastic density
currents (PDCs), lahars and debris avalanches, among others. The
magnitude (volume) and intensity (discharge rate) of any given hazard
will determine the extent of its footprint (Calder et al., 2015). Some
hazards, such as associated with lava flows and PDCs, can produce local
repercussions affecting areas of dozens or hundreds of square kilome­
ters, while others, such as ashfall and tephra dispersion produced during
Plinian eruptions can have regional and even global effects (Rampino
and Self, 1984). Nowadays, the use of the geological record combined
with statistical and computational models of volcanic processes has
greatly increased, resulting in better and more comprehensive hazards
assessments whose outcomes can be more easily portrayed on a map.
Formerly, the construction of hazard maps was based solely on the
distribution of prior events, as determined by the geology and the esti­
mated recurrence intervals of past events (e.g. Pardyanto et al., 1978;
INGEOMINAS, 1985; Hoblitt et al., 1995). These maps are considered as
geology-based hazard maps, and, according to a review made by Calder
et al. (2015), these are the most common type in the literature, repre­
senting 63% of the total. However, the geological records on which maps
of this type are based are commonly biased towards the largest events,
because deposits from smaller eruptions tend to be removed by erosion,

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: rvazmor@unam.mx (R. Vázquez).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2020.103146
Received 4 April 2020; Received in revised form 21 December 2020; Accepted 28 December 2020
Available online 5 January 2021
0895-9811/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
R. Vázquez et al. Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

thereby leaving an incomplete catalogue of past eruptions (Bonadonna,
2006). This is one of the reasons why numerical modeling and proba­
bility analysis now are being used to supplement field data, and to
explore a much wider range of possible hazard scenarios (Bonadonna,
2006). Hazards maps built in this way are classified as
integrated-qualitative hazard maps, because they integrate different
information sources, which might be geologic and/or modeling, to
define concentric-like hazard zones (Calder et al., 2015). Due to their
simplicity, these maps tend to be more effective for communication and
hazards-management purposes (Haynes et al., 2007; Calder et al., 2015;
Lindsay and Robertson, 2018; Thompson et al., 2017). In this paper, we
present three integrated volcanic hazards maps for the Tacaná Volcanic
Complex (TVC). These maps incorporate the geologic history of the
complex, numerical simulations of past events, and the modeling of
more likely future events through different eruptive scenarios (i.e.
scenario-based hazard maps). Such methodology also has been thor­
oughly used in the construction of hazard maps for other Mexican vol­
canoes, such as El Chichón (Macías et al., 2008), Nevado de Toluca
(Capra et al., 2008), Volcán de Colima (Capra et al., 2015), Popocatépetl
(Macías et al., 1995; Sheridan et al., 2001; Martin Del Pozzo et al.,
2017), Pico de Orizaba (Sheridan et al., 2002) and Ceboruco (Sieron
et al., 2019a, b).
Hence, in our preparation of integrated hazards maps for the TVC, we
combine the results of the hazards posed by: 1) Pyroclastic density
currents (PDC) in the form of block-and-ash flows (BAFs) originated by
the partial destruction of domes, simulated with the Titan2D code (Patra
et al., 2005); 2) Fallout produced by a Plinian eruption, modeled with
the FALL3D program (Costa et al., 2006; Folch et al., 2009); and 3) syn-
and post-eruptive lahars triggered by the direct inflow of volcanic ma­
terials into the main rivers draining the TVC, simulated with the FLO2D
code (O’Brien et al., 1993). Inputs for this model were obtained from the
compilation of physical and geological information from the literature
(Macías et al., 2000, 2010, 2015; Murcia, 2008; Arce et al., 2012) and
new observations and data gathered during the 2017 and 2018 field
campaigns, including thicknesses, runouts, distributions, etc., of de­
posits (see Table 1). The results of these simulations are summarized in
our integrated hazards maps that should be useful for the Civil Protec­
tion authorities and local government agencies to prepare or in update
their operative preparedness plans in case of a future volcano-related
emergency. Nonetheless, we emphasize that the hazards from lava
flows and debris avalanches must also be assessed. Such phenomena are
known in the eruptive history of the TVC and will be assessed deal in a
later publication.
2. Geological setting of the TVC
The TVC, better known simply as the Tacaná volcano, is the west­
ernmost active volcano of the Central America Volcanic Arc (CAVA), a
WNW-oriented volcanic arc extending ~1300 km from western Panama
to the Mexico-Guatemala border (Fig. 1), where it ends abruptly at the
Polochic-Motagua Fault zone (Alonso-Henar et al., 2014). According to
García-Palomo et al. (2006), the TVC is formed by four NE-SW aligned
volcanic centers named from oldest to youngest (Fig. 2): Chichuj (3800
m above sea level, or a.s.l.) formed ~225 ka, Tacaná (4060 m a.s.l.)
constructed ~50 ka ago, San Antonio (3700 m a.s.l.) which began to
emerge ~20 ka, and the undated Las Ardillas dome (3782 m a.s.l.).
Tacaná is shared by the Mexican and Guatemalan territories, marking
the international border between the two countries.
Below we summarize the main eruptions that have occurred at the
TVC, based on previous studies (Mercado and Rose, 1992; Arce et al.,
2008, 2012; Macías et al., 2015), the field data acquired during the past
twenty years (published and unpublished) and recent hazard analyses
(Vázquez et al., 2019a, 2019b).
At least four Plinian to Sub-Plinian eruptions took place during the
past 30 ka (29.5, 23.5, 14 and 0.9 ka ago), whose deposits were mainly
dispersed towards Guatemalan territory. Most of these deposits are
poorly preserved and/or obscured by heavy vegetation due to the
tropical weather of the region; the ~23.5 ka Plinian deposit is the best
exposed and preserved of these and was studied by Arce et al. (2012),
who named it the Sibinal Pumice sequence (SP). The sequence consists
of two pumice-rich units: a lower stratified member, and an upper
massive member, separated by a lahar deposit. This eruption served as

Table 1
Summary of compiled information and data obtained during recent field campaigns at Tacaná, used for the calibration of previous (Vázquez et al., 2019a) and new
numerical simulations.
Control Coordinates Deposit Elevation (m Age (ka) Observed Observations
Site a.s.l.) Thickness (m)

TAC- 596531 E, Chiquihuite BAF 2188 Not ~6 With degassing pipes.

1721 P 1669314 N dated
TAC- 599434 E, Muxbal BAF 1376 ~28.5A ~10
1723 P 1667714 N
B
TAC- 596840 E, San Rafael BAF 2465 ~16 ~30 Front of the flow.
1824 N 1676787 N
TAC- 598331 E, Monte Perla BAF 1658 ~30A ~16 Material extraction mine.
1825 N 1668213 N
TAC- 598238 E, BAF 1688 Not ~12 Material extraction mine.
1826 N 1668232 N dated This deposit looks younger than the one observed on TAC-1825, despite the
near location.
C
TAC- 592008 E, Mixcun BAF 714 ~2 ~7 Material extraction mine.
1827 P 1662416 N
TAC- 580685 E, Lahar 93 Not ~4 Hyperconcentrated deposit, maybe in the range of a fluvial deposit.
1828 N 1642530 N dated
TAC- 594436 E, BAF 1545 Not ~4 Probably is part of the Mixcun BAF deposit
1831 N 1668212 N dated
TAC- 594765 E, BAF 1605 Not ~3 Probably is part of the Mixcun BAF deposit
1832 N 1668555 N dated
TAC- 588301 E, Lahar 1100 Not 3 Stratigraphic contact between a BAF and lahar deposits (debris and
1833 N 1676634 N dated hyperconcentrated flows intercalated). Probably related to the Agua
Caliente sequence.
TAC- 589553 E, Agua Caliente 1345 ~21D 5 Stratigraphic contact between the BAF and the Debris Avalanche Deposit
1834 N 1677004 N sequence (hydrothermally altered) of the Agua Caliente sequence

Dates by: A) Espíndola et al. (1989); B) Mora et al. (2004); C) Macías et al. (2000); and D) Macías et al. (2010). N – New reference data obtained from the 2017–2018
field campaigns (this paper). P – Published data by Vázquez et al. (2019a).

2
R. Vázquez et al. Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

Fig. 1. Location map of the Tacaná Volcanic Complex

(TVC) within the tectonic setting of the region. Red
triangles indicate the position of the TVC, along with
the location of Santa María, El Chichón and Fuego
volcanoes, which have had major activity in
1902,1982 and 2018, respectively. The dashed blue
lines enclose the Central America Volcanic Arc
(CAVA); the dashed yellow line represents the
boundary of the Soconusco region, and the white lines
the predominant structural features of the zone.

Fig. 2. A) A simplified geologic map of the TVC showing the volcanoes of the Complex: Ch = Chichuj, Ta = Tacaná, A = Ardillas dome, SA = San Antonio; built upon
Mesozoic metamorphic rocks, the Coastal Batholith of Chiapas, and late Pleistocene volcanic rocks of the Sibinal, San Rafael and Chanjale calderas (modified from
Macías et al., 2015). Stars mark the location of the 1949 and 1986 phreatic explosions. B) View from the southeast of the TVC that display the four edifices forming
the Complex. Photograph taken from Unión Juárez, México.

3
R. Vázquez et al.
the basis for an ashfall probabilistic analysis of the TVC (Vázquez et al.,
2019b), made with the Eulerian model FALL3D (Costa et al., 2006: Folch
et al., 2009) and whose results have been integrated in this study.
The largest Holocene eruption of the TVC took place at San Antonio
volcano ~2 ka ago with a Peléan-style eruption that caused the collapse
of the southwestern sector of the volcano (Macías et al., 2000). This
eruption produced a series of BAFs (Mixcun) with the largest runouts
(14 km from the summit) of the geological record of the TVC, covering
an area of 25 km2, with a minimum volume of 0.12 km3. The partial or
total destruction of summit domes has been a common type of eruption
in the TVC; there are at least seven deposits of concentrated PDCs dated
between 40 and ~5 ka distributed around the flanks of the volcano
(Espíndola et al., 1989; Macías et al., 2000; Mora et al., 2004; Macías,
2005; Macías et al., 2010; Vázquez et al., 2019a). The physical features
and distribution of these deposits also served as the basis for the nu­
merical simulation of BAFs at the TVC, performed by Vázquez et al.
(2019a) using the Titan2D code (Patra et al., 2005). Some of the
observed characteristics and the coordinates of the control sites of these
and other deposits visited during the 2017 and 2018 field campaigns,
used by Vázquez et al. (2019a) to calibrate the model, are listed in
Table 1. Their results were also integrated into the hazards maps pre­
sented in this work.
The Mixcun BAF deposits, which were emplaced during the ~2 ka
eruption of the San Antonio volcano, dammed the main rivers, and were
followed by post-eruptive lahars that flooded the lowlands along the
southern part of the Complex (Macías et al., 2000). These lahars flooded
Izapa, the main ceremonial center of the Soconusco region causing its
abandonment, during the Late Formative period (Macías et al., 2018).
Another major event in the eruptive history of the complex, occurred
during the flank collapse of the Tacaná volcano ~15 ka ago. The collapse
produced the Agua Caliente debris avalanche followed by BAFs that
temporarily dammed the San Rafael and Agua Caliente rivers (Macías
et al., 2010). Rupture and failure of the dam generated lahars that
flowed downstream along the San Rafael and Coatán rivers (Macías
et al., 2010). Extensive lahar deposits, on which the City of Tapachula is
situated, have been well documented along the Coatán river (Murcia and
Macías, 2014).
The most recent activity of the TVC consisted of phreatic explosions
near the summit of the volcano (Fig. 2-A), during 1855–1856 (Böse,
1904; Carlón Allende et al., 2020), 1949, and 1986 (Mercado and Rose,
1992; Müllerried, 1951; De la Cruz-Reyna et al., 1989). The latter events
were preceded by months of intense seismic activity, and after the
eruptions, intense fumarolic activity continued for years. Nowadays,
intense hydrothermal activity prevails atop the volcano and near the
Agua Caliente village, produced by the shallow circulation of hot fluids
(Rouwet et al., 2004; 2009).
Collectively, the available evidence points to the substantial poten­
tial threat that future volcanic unrest of the TVC could pose for the
surrounding population of ~110,000 inhabitants (CIESIN, 2018) living
within a radius of 14 km from the volcano summit (Fig. 2). Other vol­
canoes of the CAVA have exhibited eruptive activity in modern times.
The Santa Maria volcano, located ~75 km SE of Tacaná, erupted in
1902, producing one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century (Wil­
liams and Self, 1983) showering 15–20 cm of ash over the Soconusco
region (Böse, 1904), including the City of Tapachula, and the TVC
summit, as shown by recent dendrochronological and stratigraphic
studies (Murcia and Macías, 2009; 2014; Carlón Allende et al., 2020).
Another example is El Chichón or Chichonal volcano, located ~250 km
N-NW of the TVC, which erupted cataclysmically in 1982 and produced
the deadliest volcanic disaster in Mexico’s modern history, killing 2000
people and causing a severe economic loss in southern Chiapas (Espín­
dola et al., 2002; De la Cruz-Reyna and Martin Del Pozo, 2009; De la
Cruz-Reyna and Tilling, 2015). Recently, the Fuego volcano, located
~150 km SE from Tacaná in Guatemala, erupted in June 2018. Even
though it was a small-magnitude event, it produced a series of PDCs
(BAFs) that traveled >11 km from the vent, destroying the community of
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Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146
San Miguel Los Lotes and killing at least 190 people (Pardini et al.,
2019). All these are modern examples of the hazards posed by volcanic
activity in the CAVA region (Fig. 1), and they demonstrate that the
impacts of a large eruption of the TVC could be disastrous. Yet, these
recent warnings, to date there have been few efforts to assess the vol­
canic hazards posed by the TVC. In fact, the only hazard map of the
complex that addressed all volcanic hazards was proposed by Mercado
and Rose (1992), which was based on photogeology and reconnaissance
field data. Later, Macías et al. (2000) presented general hazard-zonation
maps related to BAFs and lahars, based on field information of the last
eruption of the San Antonio volcano. After these two studies, other au­
thors presented detailed descriptions of other volcanic deposits such as
lahars, debris avalanches, lava flows and ashfalls (Murcia, 2008; Macías
et al., 2010; Limón-Hernández, 2011; Arce et al., 2012), but without
providing any hazard assessments.
3. Methodology
In this work, we adapted the methodology followed by Lindsay and
Robertson (2018) for the development of volcanic hazards maps. They
proposed a systematic approach to generate volcanic-hazards maps that
consists of two stages: 1) the creation of phenomena-based hazard maps
for the most likely eruptive scenario, based on a long-term hazard
assessment of the volcano; and 2) the generation of georeferenced vol­
canic hazard-zonation maps in a color scale that use the information
obtained in stage (1) based on a classification of very high, high, mod­
erate and low hazard zones (red, orange, yellow and green color,
respectively). In this work, we followed their approach and additionally
we use numerical modeling to improve the results of the scenario-based
hazard assessment. The hazards included in our maps are PDCs in the
form of BAFs, ashfall, and syn- and post-eruptive lahars. From these, we
utilize the results of the numerical simulations and hazard zones pro­
posed by Vázquez et al. (2019a) for BAFs at the Tacaná volcano, and the
probabilistic ashfall contours for a ground load threshold of 100 kg/m2
of a Plinian eruption from Vázquez et al. (2019b). Nevertheless, in the
following sections, we summarize the eruptive style scenarios and input
parameters used by Vázquez et al. (2019a, b) for the simulations inte­
grated into this study. Moreover, it is worth noting that, for the final
design of the maps, we adapted the hazard classification scale of Lindsay
and Robertson (2018), using three rather than four hazard-zone levels:
high, moderate and low that correspond to red, orange and yellow
colors, respectively.
3.1. Stage 1, eruptive style scenarios
According to the most-recurrent activity, based on the eruptive his­
tory of the TVC, we established for this paper two eruptive style sce­
narios: 1) a dome-collapsing scenario (DCS), where the partial collapse
or complete destruction of summit domes are expected, triggering the
formation of PDCs in the form of BAFs, which in turn could be remo­
bilized as hot lahars along main drainages of the volcano (e.g. the ~2 ka
eruption of San Antonio volcano), and 2) a magmatic explosive eruption
scenario (MES), represented by a Plinian eruption of Tacaná volcano,
similar to the Sibinal Pumice eruption and involving dilute PDCs derived
by column collapse, ashfall, and lahars.
It should be mentioned that the Complex has effusively erupted
andesitic and dacitic lava flows, and its flanks have collapsed to pro­
duced debris-avalanches. These scenarios will be addressed in a follow-
up contribution.
3.1.1. Phenomena-based eruptive scenarios
To assess the two eruptive scenarios considered in this paper, we
used previous information (i.e. BAFs and ashfall numerical modeling,
Vázquez et al., 2019a; b), as well as new data collected during the 2017
and 2018 field campaigns (Table 1). We then performed new numerical
simulations and integrate the results of each phenomena on a color scale
R. Vázquez et al. Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

hazard map. 3.1.1.2. Ashfall hazard. As described before, during the past ~40 ka,
four Plinian to Subplinian eruptions have taken place at the TVC,
3.1.1.1. Block-and-ash flows (BAFs) hazard. The generation of BAFs providing evidence of the explosivity and magnitude of volcanic events
originated by the partial or total destruction of summit domes has been that could be expected from this Complex. Hence, for this work, we use
the most recurrent volcanic phenomenon at the TVC during the past 40 part of the results of the probabilistic tephra-hazard analysis obtained by
ka, as evidenced by the record of deposits distributed around the vol­ Vázquez et al. (2019b) for the TVC. These authors used the FALL3D
canic complex and well described by several authors (Espíndola et al., numerical code (Costa et al., 2006; Folch et al., 2009) to simulate a
1989; Mora et al., 2004; Macías et al., 2000; 2010; 105; Macías, 2005). Plinian scenario based on the ~23.5 ka Sibinal Plinian eruption (Arce
Therefore from these data, Vázquez et al. (2019a) performed a series of et al., 2012). Vázquez et al. (2019b), assessed the hazards posed by
numerical simulations of past and future volcanic events, using the ashfall at ground level and into the atmosphere, considering several
Titan2D code (Patra et al., 2005), defining three impact scenarios, based thresholds. The main input parameters used by these authors in their
on the maximum extent and distribution reached by BAFs of different simulations (Table 3) were eruption duration, total erupted mass, col­
volumes originated from the four volcanic centers of the Complex (see umn height, total grain size distribution (TGSD), and ERA-Interim
the input parameters listed in Table 2; Vázquez et al., 2019a). These reanalysis data for a 10-year period (2008–2017) for the meteorolog­
authors proposed the first hazard zonation for the dense part of the ical modeling. In this study, we utilize the probability contours for the
BAFs, using a Low, Medium and High Impact zone classification. In this ash ground load threshold of 100 kg/m2 of Vázquez et al. (2019b) and
paper, we include the area covered by the High Impact hazard zone integrate them in the final design of the volcanic-hazards maps.
reported by Vázquez et al. (2019a), which is associated with the Nonetheless, it is also well known that, during a Plinian eruption,
maximum areal extent that would be reached by the dense basal PDCs can be generated by the partial collapse of the external parts or the
avalanche of BAFs (volumes of 0.15 km3). However, this area does not total collapse of the eruption column. This phenomenon is partially
include the deposits related to the dilute PDCs or the turbulent ash cloud considered in our assessment (BAFs hazard section) through the Energy
on top. These dilute components may travel beyond the limits of the Cone model (Malin and Sheridan, 1982) that defines the maximum
basal avalanche (Saucedo et al., 2002; Sulpizio et al., 2010). Therefore, extent of the dilute parts of PDCs. Macías et al. (2008) address this issue
to assess this phenomenon, we ran a numerical simulation, using the in a similar way for El Chichón volcano, using the same model to
Energy Cone model proposed by Malin and Sheridan (1982). The basis of simulate dilute PDCs generated by Plinian collapse events.
this model, also known as the energy line, is that the ratio of the height of
the starting point of the flow (H) to the length of the runout (L), acts as a
friction parameter known as the Heim coefficient (μ = arctan H/L, Heim,
Table 3
1932). The intersection of the energy line with the topography marks the Input parameters for FALL3D, used by Vázquez et al. (2019b), for the ashfall
area that could possibly be affected by the simulated phenomenon hazard assessment carried out at the TVC.
(Sulpizio et al., 2010). This model has been successfully used on the
Volcanological Minimum Maximum Reference eruption (SP, Arce
hazard assessment of the dilute ash cloud of the PDCs (Saucedo et al., Parameters et al., 2012)
2005; Capra et al., 2008; Macías et al., 2008; Sulpizio et al., 2010;
Total mass (kg) 2.5 x 1012 5.0 x 1012 4.8 x 1012
Ogburn and Calder, 2017). Eruption duration 12 24 17.7
Thus, we use the Energy Cone model set-up as an online simulation (h)
tool, on the VHub platform (http://vhub.org/) by Palma (2013). This Column height 19 26 22
tool uses a simple sliding-block methodology to estimate the runout and (km)
TGSDa Askja 1875 phase D eruption (Costa et al., 2016)
inundation areas of geological flows, which can include dilute compo­
nents. The input parameters used within this tool were: a digital Meteorological parameters Computational domain
elevation model (DEM) of 12.5 m resolution from an ALOS-PALSAR RTC Time-dependent wind fields from a 10- From 11◦ to 22◦ N, and from − 100◦ to
image (ASF DAAC, 2015); the ratio H/L of 0.29 for the TVC according to year period (2008–2017) were − 83◦ W, with a horizontal grid resolution
the maximum runout distance of the longest BAF reported to date for the extracted from sampling ERA-Interim of 0.15◦ (~15 km)
reanalysis data
TVC (Mixcun BAF, Macías et al., 2000); and the altitude and coordinates
a
of the source corresponding to the Tacaná summit (4060 m). TGSD: Total Grain Size Distribution.

Table 2
Summary of the input and output parameters obtained by Vázquez et al. (2019a) using Titan2D code for the BAFs hazard assessment of the TVC.
INPUTS OUTPUTS

Scenario Basal friction angle Volume of the simulated Source points (UTM Maximum runout Maximum flow Maximum velocity
modeled dome (m3) coordinates) distance (km) depth (m) (m/s)

Low impact (LI) N-ZONE: 23◦ , 20◦ V1 = 0.5 x 106 AD: 595053 E, 1672795 N 3.8–8.4 5–10 21.7–70.5
SE-ZONE: 20◦ , 18◦ V2 = 1.5 x 106 NWTAC: 595671 E,
SW-ZONE: 18◦ , V3 = 3.0 x 106 1673548 N
Medium impact 14◦ , 12◦ V1 = 10 x 106 NETAC: 596045 E, 5.3–9.3 10–30 29.9–69.1
(MI) V2 = 15 x 106 1673647 N
V3 = 30 x 106 CHJ: 596898 E,
High impact (HI) V1 = 50 x 106 1673412 N 5.8–10.7 30 44.4–74.2
V2 = 100 x 106 SCHJ: 596933 E,
V3 = 150 x 106 1672700 N
SWTAC: 595424 N,
1672714 N
TAC: 595784 E,
1673172 N
SAN: 594736 E,
1672262 N

The input DEM for the simulations, was obtained from an ALOS-PALSAR RTC image of 12.5 m píxel resolution (ASF DAAC, 2015).
*The notation related to the zones of the basal friction angles and source points, are described in detailed in Vázquez et al. (2019a).

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R. Vázquez et al. Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

3.1.1.3. Lahar hazard. Syn-eruptive lahars have commonly occurred at
the TVC, as evidenced by the historical lahar deposits exposed along the
main rivers draining the complex (Macías,2005; Murcia, 2008; Murcia
and Macías, 2009, 2014; Macías et al., 2018). This is mainly because
most of the ravines and channels draining the volcanic edifice are
directly linked to the surrounding perennial rivers or intermittent
streams. Therefore, any eruptive scenario for the TVC could trigger the
development of syn-eruptive hot lahars or could block main rivers,
triggering catastrophic debris flows downstream as it has been previ­
ously documented (Macías 2005; Macías et al., 2018). Another condition
that render the Tacaná volcano prone to develop syn- and post-eruptive
lahars are the highest rates of annual precipitation in Mexico, which in
the rainy season (May–October) varies from 1200 to 3000 mm (IEA,
2013). Thus, in case that a new eruption of Tacaná takes place during the
rainy season, lahars would be a major threat for populations located in
the flat distal plains. Consequently, we performed numerical simulations
with FLO2D (O’Brien et al., 1993), to assess the hazards posed by lahars
at the TVC and their related inundation zones. We considered three
possible triggers (Table 4): a) direct input of volcanic material from BAFs
into main ravines and develop lahars in the debris flow (DF) regime
(mixtures with >60% of sediment per volume, Beverage and Culbertson,
1964); b) the same case scenario as (a) but with an extra percentage of
water volume from heavy rains (i.e. eruption occurring during the rainy
season) with the generation of lahars evolving from DF to the
hyper-concentrated flow (HF) regime (mixtures between 20 and 60% of
sediment per volume, Beverage and Culbertson, 1964); and c) entrain­
ment of particles derived from Plinian ashfall deposition in the main
streams surrounding the TVC, forming lahars in the DF and HF regimes
(see input parameters in Table 4). One of the main entries of the FLO2D
model are the Manning coefficients (or Manning n values), which the
model requires to calculate flow resistance of the turbulent and
dispersive shear stresses produced by the sediment concentration of the
flow. We followed the methodology of Arcement and Schneider (1989)
for selecting Manning’s roughness coefficients. The analysis of the
Manning n values covered an area of ~1500 km2 of the TVC sur­
roundings that comprises all the streams draining the volcano.
3.2. Stage 2, design of integrated hazard maps
At this stage, we integrated the individual hazardous phenomena
resulting from stage (1) according to the two eruptive style scenarios
established (i.e., dome-collapsing and Plinian eruption), into a volcanic-

Table 4
Input parameters used for lahar modelling with FLO2D (from Vázquez et al., Unpublished results) for hazard assessment purposes of the TVC.
Scenario modeled Water + % Sediment (per Source points (UTM coordinates)
sediment volume)
Volume (m3)

Lahars triggered by inputs of volcanic debris from BAFs, into main streams V1 = 30 x 106 50% CTN_N: 592428 E, 1676946 N
V2 = 100 x 106 CTN_SW: 587534 E, 1669688 N
V3 = 250 x 106 CAH_SW: 588910 E, 1665767 N
CAH_MX1: 591043 E, 1665561 N
CAH_MX2: 591627 E, 1665286 N
CAH_MX3: 592143 E, 1664942 N
Same as above and an additional input of water from heavy rainfall V1 = 45 x 106 50% SCT_S: 595480 E, 1664873 N
V2 = 150 x 106 SCT_UNION: 598128 E, 1664426 N
V3 = 375 x 106 SCT_SE: 599951 E, 1665733 N
Lahars triggered by the entrainment of ashfall into the main streams, due to V1 = 25 x 106 55% CTN_BNV: CAH_S1: 590353 E, 1663488 N
a Plinian eruption. V2 = 70 x 106 50% 587301 E,
V3 = 130 x 106 20% 1669585 N
CTN_CAH: CAH_S2: 582558 E, 1655403 N
584390 E,
1661339 N
CTN_CNJ: CAH_S3: 583550 E, 1657731 N
585769 E,
1675377 N
CTN_NTE: CAHCITO: 590925 E, 1668004 N
588019 E,
1677957 N
CTN_SRF: SCT_CAH: 590791 E, 1658252 N
595813 E,
1677401 N
CTN_SW1: SCT_DES: 595522 E, 1664996 N
576135 E,
1649689 N
CTN_SW2: SCT_GV: 598523 E, 1669468 N
577941 E,
1652610 N
CTN_SW3: SCT_SE1: 600179 E, 1665955 N
580793 E,
1658277 N
CAH_APJ: SCT_TAL: 597476 E, 1668060 N
589102 E,
1667129 N
CAH_LVG: SCT_TOQ: 594439 E, 1667515 N
591409 E,
1664696 N

Rheological parameters Yield stress Viscosity Flow Limiting Froude

resistance number

Gleenwood 2 (FLO-2D: O’Brien and Julien, 1988) α β α β K F

0.0765 16.9 0.0648 6.2 2000 0.9

Note: Rheological coefficients α and β were chosen based on the O’Brien and Julien (1988) data, as suggested on the FLO-2D Reference Manual. The input DEM used for
the simulation was obtained from a 12.5 m resolution ALOS-PALSAR RTC image (ASF DAAC, 2015).

6
R. Vázquez et al.
hazard-zones scale (Lindsay and Robertson, 2018) set as: high, moderate
and low hazard zones. We systematically weighted the individual haz­
ards and then combined them in zones as suggested by these authors, but
with some modifications:
• Zone 1 (red), represents the high-hazard zone: This area is prone to
be highly affected by each hazard considered in the two eruptive
scenarios: dome collapsing (DCS) and magmatic explosive eruption
(MES) events. Its extent was determined for the DCS scenario, by
combining the area with a high BAF hazard (i.e., deposits from 10 to
30 m thickness), and the areas prone to be flooded by lahars with
volumes ranging from 0.030 to 0.045 km3. The MES scenario en­
compasses the area covered by the 80% probability contour (for the
ashfall threshold of 100 kg/m2), the maximum extent for the dilute
ash-cloud detached from column collapse PDCs, and the areas prone
to be flooded by lahars with volumes equal to 0.025 km3.
• Zone 2 (orange), represents the moderate hazard zone: For the DCS
scenario, the surface affected by dilute ash clouds originated from
BAFs, and the inundation zones affected by lahars with volumes
ranging from 0.1 to 0.15 km3. For the MES scenario this zone in­
cludes the area covered between the 80 and 40% probability con­
tours of the ashfall analysis, and the inundation zones by lahars with
volumes equal to 0.07 km3.
• Zone 3 (yellow), represents the low hazard zone: For the DCS sce­
nario, it includes the inundation zones by lahars ranging from 0.25 to
0.38 km3 of volume. While for the MES scenario, this zone covers the
surface comprised by the 40 to 10% probability contour of the ashfall
analysis, and the inundation zones by lahars equal to 0.13 km3 of
volume. It should be noted that this zone does not consider the BAF
hazard.
Following this zonation scheme, we use the Geographical Informa­
tion System ©ArcMap 10.2, and a 12.5 m relief model of the region, to
integrate the three volcanic hazard maps for the TVC.
4. Results
The integrated volcanic-hazards maps for the TVC (Figs. 3 and 4),
enclosing an area of ca. 3000 km2, combine the results of the scenario-
based numerical simulations of the hazards posed by PDCs in the form of
BAFs and its accompanying dilute ash cloud, ashfall, and lahars, utiliz­
ing the eruptive scenarios defined as dome-collapsing (DCS) and
magmatic explosive eruption (MES),.
Fig. 3-A shows the DCS scenario, depicting the areas that can be
affected by BAFs, the dilute ash cloud that elutriates from the basal
BAFs, and by lahars. Lahars are triggered due to the input of new vol­
canic material in the form of BAFs within gullies and its subsequent
remobilization by runoff water downstream. While Fig. 3-B, shows la­
hars formed in the same way as in 3-A, but takes into account extra
inflow of water from precipitations, if the DCS occur during the rainy
season. In both cases, the expected inundation areas are represented on
the color hazard scale adopted for this work, according to the flow
volume associated with each scenario (see Table 4).
Fig. 4-A shows the integrated hazard map for the MES eruptive
scenario, whose main feature is related to the ashfall hazard zonation,
showing the maximum extent for the dilute ash-cloud originated from
column-collapse PDCs and lahar inundation zones. Fig. 4-B considers
ashfall and other volcanic fine particles detached from these type of
eruptions (MES scenario), could blanket main streams and topographic
high areas triggering DF and HF lahars.
4.1. High hazard zone (zone 1)
In Fig. 3, this zone is mainly represented by the area affected by the
dense-granular part of the simulated BAFs, which covers ~143 km2 and
is mostly restricted to the slopes of the TVC edifice, reaching a maximum
7
Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146
distance from the summit of 5 km towards the NE (over Guatemala), and
11 km towards the SW (over Mexico). According to Vázquez et al.
(2019a), the simulated BAFs could emplace deposits > 30 m in the main
ravines of the TVC, and up to ~10 m thick along the base of the edifice.
On the NE slope of the edifice, the San Rafael caldera wall would block
the BAFs dispersion downslope. This zone encloses at least 50 small
villages, with circa 11,200 inhabitants (INEGI, 2010).
In the map presented in Fig. 4, the high-hazard zone delineates the
areas that could be strongly affected by ashfall, the dilute ash-clouds
elutriated from PDCs, and lahars. In Fig. 4-A, Zone 1 covers an area of
ca. 1000 km2, in which the exceedance probability of an ashfall
threshold of 100 kg/m2 (i.e., 10 cm of ash at ground level) is higher than
80% (Vázquez et al., 2019b), should a Plinian eruption of the TVC occur
(see Table 3). Moreover, lahar-inundation areas, cover 53 km2 along the
main drainages of the San Rafael, Coatán, Cahoa, Cahoacán, Ixtal,
Mixcun, Cahoacancito, and Suchiate rivers, extending ~35 km from the
volcano base. Within this area live ~225,000 inhabitants (CIESIN,
2018), distributed in Guatemala and Mexico, who could be affected by
both phenomena.
4.2. Moderate hazard zone (zone 2)
The moderate hazard zone depicted in Fig. 3 encompasses the surface
that could be affected by the dilute ash cloud that accompanies BAFs,
enclosing an area of ~213 km2 covered by 1 cm or more of fine ash. This
area, estimated from the Energy Cone model (Malin and Sheridan,
1982), is bounded on the NW by the Chanjale caldera morphology, to
the N by the San Rafael caldera wall, to the NE by the Sibinal caldera,
and towards the SE by the Coastal Batholith of Chiapas (see Fig. 2).
Towards the SW, the extension of Zone 2 is marked by the main break in
slope of the TVC, which also marks the base of the volcanic edifice.
Within this zone ~3000 inhabitants are settled, distributed throughout
40 localities (INEGI, 2010), mostly Mexican.
Fig. 4-A shows a part of the moderate-hazard zone related to ashfall
and all the extension of Zone 2 for lahars. Fig. 4-B, shows the hazards
posed by ashfall that comprises an area of ~1800 km2 delimited by the
80% and 40% probability contours of ashfall exceedance (also for a
threshold of 100 kg/m2), as well as by the ~70 km2 of lahar inundation
areas along main drainages of the Complex. These lahars would reach
maximum runout distances of 43 km from the TVC base towards the S
and SW floodplains. Within this area, which includes the City of Tapa­
chula, live ~500,000 people (CIESIN, 2018); it is the most populated
urban zone in the Soconusco region.
4.3. Low hazard zone (zone 3)
Fig. 3 depicts the hazard areas produced by BAFs and lahars. From
these two hazards, the low hazard zone only consists of the inundation
areas produced by lahars with volumes ranging from 0.25 to 0.375 km3
(i.e., Fig. 3A and B, respectively). Therefore, from these two cases, the
differences in the simulated volumes that reflect inundated areas, would
vary from ~125 up to ~155 km2, respectively for the same eruptive
scenario, occurring during different seasons (i.e. Fig. 3A and B). In either
case, lahars will spread mostly towards the W-SW side of the City of
Tapachula, the Cacahoatán floodplain and the floodplain between the
Metapa and Frontera Hidalgo localities. Within this zone live ~257,000
inhabitants (CIESIN, 2018).
In Fig. 4, Zone 3 comprise the areas from the 40% to the 10%
probability contours of ashfall exceedance, comprising ca. 5000 km2 of
area (Fig. 4-B), including the lahar-inundation zones, which encompass
~175 km2 and reach maximum runout distances from the base of the
Complex of 50 km. These areas are inhabited by at least 1.3 million
people (CIESIN, 2018), distributed over Mexico and Guatemala. The
elongated shape of Zone 3 in the horizontal axis (SW-NE orientation) in
Fig. 4-B displays the entire extent of the ashfall hazard zone.
R. Vázquez et al.
4.4. General remarks about the maps
In the eruptive scenarios presented in Fig. 3, the expected inundation
areas would lie between the Cahoacán and Cahoacancito rivers,
affecting the urban zone of Cacahoatán (~45,000 inhabitants, INEGI,
2010) and areas towards the south and southwestern region of the map
(Fig. 3-B). In both cases, the maximum distance reached by lahars is less
than 50 km after the break in slope of the volcano. The areas flooded
would have 50 m in width in the narrowest sections and up to 3 km in
the Suchiate flood plain, with mean flow depths of 3–5 m. The lahars
would reach maximum velocities of 6.5 m/s and will flow down the
main river drainages: Coatán, Cahoa, Cahoacán, Cahoacancito and
Suchiate. The lahars would impact the cities of Tapachula, Cacahoatán,
Tuxtla Chico, Talismán, Metapa, Guadalupe Victoria, Frontera Hidalgo,
and seven small settlements, located in the Mexican territory. Conse­
quently, the number of people living within the three hazards zones who
could be affected just by lahars could be as large as ~300,000 (CIESIN,
2018).
The main differences between the lahar-inundation zones of Fig. 4 (i.
e., MES scenario) and those of Fig. 3 (i.e., DCS scenario), are the water-
sediment volumes involved in each eruptive scenario (see Table 4). For
example, in the MES scenario the volume involved in the formation of
lahars ranges from 20 to 50% less than the volumes of the cases shown
for eruptive scenario DCS (Fig. 3).
Another important difference between the lahar inundation zones of
these two figures is that the City of Tapachula would be even more
affected in the MES scenario. This is due to the fact that, at least three
streams could flood the city (the branch from the Coatán river to the
NW, one current that traverses the urban zone in the middle, and the
Cahoacán river towards the SE) (Fig. 4). The mean flow depths of the
simulated lahars would vary from 1.5 to 5 m, reaching maximum ve­
locities ~7 m/s, especially in the narrowest sections of the channels. The
number of people who could be affected by lahars in the MES scenario
then will be ca. 400,000 inhabitants (CIESIN, 2018), a number compa­
rable to the total expected during the DCS scenario, considering both dry
and wet seasons (Fig. 3A and B).
5. Discussion
Volcanic eruptions pose diverse hazards to the surrounding pop­
ulations. This is because different types of eruptions produce different
volcanic products that become dispersed in diverse ways around the
vent. After major explosive eruptions, the main ravines can be clogged
with volcanic debris to form natural dams, posing an additional
complication to hazard mitigation, because the sequent rupture of these
dams could remobilize this material as catastrophic floods downstream,
as has been observed at Mount Saint Helens in 1980 (Scott, 1988); El
Chichón in 1982 (Macías et al., 2004; Scolamacchia and Macías, 2015);
Nevado del Ruiz in 1985 (Mojica et al., 1985; d’Ercole, 1989); Mount
Pinatubo in 1991 (Newhall and Punongbayan, 1996); Mount Unzen in
1993 (Nakada and Fujii, 1993; Gomez and Wassmer, 2015); Ruapehu in
1995 (Cronin et al., 1997), among others. These syn-eruptive phenom­
ena complicate the hazard assessment and mitigation around steep,
incised active volcanoes located in subtropical areas exposed to heavy
rainfalls, as is the case of the TVC. In order to consider several volcanic
hazards and their possible interplay, we present the two most-likely
eruptive scenarios (considering BAFs, lahars, and ashfall phenomena)
according to their recurrence on the eruptive record of the TVC. Each
simulated scenario, in addition to BAFs and ashfall, also considers the
formation of syn-eruptive lahars. This is because the mountainous re­
gion (Sierra Madre de Chiapas better known as Sierra Madre in
Guatemala) in which the TVC is located, is one of the rainiest areas of the
two countries, with an annual mean precipitation between 1200 and
3000 mm (IEA, 2013), locally reaching 4000 mm. Besides, the main
rivers draining the Complex: Coatán to the west, and Cahoacán and
Suchiate to the south-southeast sides of the volcano, reach average
8
Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146
natural runoffs of 745 hm3/yr, 554 hm3/yr and 1581 hm3/yr, respec­
tively (ARMC, 2011; CONAGUA, 2017). Therefore, with future erup­
tions, syn- and post-eruptive lahars will almost certainly occur in the
three main rivers or their tributaries (e.g. San Rafael, Cahoa, Ixtal,
Mixcun, and Cahoacancito rivers). Another situation that must be
considered in these scenarios, is the possibility of streams clogging by
the sudden arrival of volcanic material (dams). The TVC is surrounded
by narrow V-type valleys flanked by steep walls (e.g. San Rafael, Coatán,
Cahoacán and Suchiate rivers). This type of stream-blockage has been
recognized and documented for the eruptions produced in the Late
Pleistocene and Late Holocene at Tacaná by Macías (2005; 2007) and
Macías et al. (2000; 2018). Nonetheless, these temporal dams eventually
break, generating catastrophic hot lahars, such as those that originated a
month later after the 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al.,
2004). The simulations integrated into our maps show that lahars
developed after an eruption of the TVC, could reach 50 km beyond the
volcano apron, flooding parts of the City of Tapachula, the flat valley
between the Cahoacán and Suchiate rivers (i.e. the town of Cacahoatán),
and much of the lowlands that surround the Suchiate river to the south,
between the localities of Metapa and Frontera Hidalgo (Figs. 3 and 4).
The extent of simulated lahars is not surprising, because Tapachula and
its surroundings are built on ancient alluvial fans (Murcia, 2008; Murcia
and Macías, 2009), and along the banks of the Coatán river made of
historical lahar deposits and alluvial floods (Murcia, 2008). In fact, the
name of Tapachula City means “tapachol”, which in Náhuatl means
“flooded earth”, suggesting that the ancient inhabitants of this region
were aware of this potential hazard (Murcia and Macías, 2014). This
condition is due to the fact that the main direction of the catchment
outflows of the complex drain to the south, ultimately to the Pacific
Coast. What is surprising is the small differences (at present graphic
scale of 1:140,000) between the results for the dry and rainy seasons,
presented in Fig. 3 (i.e., 3A and 3B, respectively). In fact, between these
scenarios exist only a 20% difference in the resulting flood areal extent,
even though, the simulated volumes for lahar development involve 50%
more water. This could be mainly due to the map scale, which loses some
detail in representing small variations in large scales. Out simulations
used a 12.5 m resolution DEM, which has a finer mathematical resolve
giving flow depths and velocity variations more accurately. However, in
either scenario (Fig. 3-A or 3-B), the areas that would be mostly affected
by lahars are distributed along the southern floodplains of the Complex,
which are the most populated areas in the region.
Apart from the evident hazard posed by lahars at the TVC, it is also
clear that this volcano represents a danger for both Mexico and
Guatemala. All morphological features located around the TVC will
block and divert most of volcanic flows (i.e. BAFs, dilute ash clouds,
debris avalanches, or lava flows) within a radius of ~5 km to the NE
(over Guatemala), and ~10 km to the SW (over Mexico) from the
summit. The volcanic material accumulated will be then remobilized
along main ravines that drain mostly through Mexican territory. How­
ever, ashfall (Vázquez et al., 2019b) will affect areas along a NE-SW axis
affecting both countries but mostly Guatemala. Therefore, if a larger
magnitude Plinian eruption should occur, the three hazard zones pro­
posed in this work (~8000 km2) would encompass a population at risk
numbering approximately 2 million people (CIESIN, 2018). Some other
hazards associated with large explosive eruptions as the development of
column-collapse PDCs or atmospheric dispersion of fine ash, should also
be taken into account for a complete volcanic hazard assessment.
Nevertheless, even when in this work we partially address the genera­
tion of PDCs, in the form of BAFs and the dilute ash cloud that elutriates
from them (Energy Cone model), we are aware of the limitations of the
numerical models used in this analysis to realistically reproduce
column-collapse PDCs.
The high and moderate hazard zones for BAFs (Zones 1 and 2), ob­
tained from Fig. 3-A and 3-B, enclose an area of ~230 km2 (9 km radius),
which is mainly restricted to the volcanic edifice itself. This is because
the BAFs are gravitationally driven flows, therefore their distribution is
R. Vázquez et al. Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146

Fig. 3. Integrated volcanic-hazard maps of the

Tacaná Volcanic Complex (TVC) for the dome-
collapsing eruptive scenario (DCS). A) Considering
the case that the volcanic activity takes place during
the dry season; B) Considering the case that the
eruption takes place during the rainy season. Zone 1
(High hazard zone), depicted in red, considers the
extent of the dense-granular part of the deposits
produced by block-and-ash flows (BAFs), and the
inundation zones produced by lahars [A):0.030 km3
and B):0.045 km3 of volume], with 50% of sediment
concentration by volume (debris flow regime, DF).
Zone 2 (Moderate hazard zone), shown in orange,
represents the extent of the dilute ash cloud associ­
ated with the BAFs (limit of the Energy Cone), along
with the inundation zones produced by lahars [A):0.1
km3 and B): 0.15 km3 of volume] in the DF regime.
Zone 3 (Low hazard zone), shown in yellow, depicts
the inundation area expected for lahars of A):0.25
km3 and B): 0.375 km3 of volume (also in the DF
regime).

Fig. 4. A) Integrated volcanic-hazard map of the TVC, for the magmatic explosive eruptive scenario (MES). B) Total extent of the probability contour hazard map for
100 kg/m2 of ashfall threshold at ground level. Zone 1 (High hazard zone), depicted in red, including the area covered by the 80% probability contour of exceedance
of the 100 kg/m2 of ashfall threshold at ground level (Vázquez et al., 2019b), which means a high probability of being affected by more than 10 cm of ashfall
deposited at surface level; as well as the maximum extent of the dilute ash-cloud developed by column-collapse PDCs and the inundation zones produced by lahars of
0.025 km3 of volume in the DF regime. Zone 2 (Moderate hazard zone) shown in orange, including the area covered by the 80 and 40% probability contours of
exceedance of the 100 kg/m2 of ashfall threshold at ground level, and the inundation zones produced by lahars of 0.070 km3 of volume in the DF regime. Zone 3 (Low
hazard zone), shown in yellow, encompass the area between the 40 and 10% probability contours of exceedance of the 100 kg/m2 of ashfall threshold at ground level,
and the inundation zones produced by lahars of 0.13 km3 of volume, in the hyperconcentrated flow regime (i.e. >20 and < 50% of sediment concentration
per volume).

controlled by topographic lows around the volcano, where their velocity
gradually decreases, and they eventually stop within the volcano apron.
The extents of these BAFs are similar to those observed at other vol­
canoes like Volcán de Colima (Saucedo et al., 2002; 2004; 2005);
Ceboruco (Sieron et al., 2019a); and Merapi (Charbonnier and Gertisser,
2009). However, the occurrence of extraordinary PDCs with longer
runouts around TVC should not be disregarded, as documented for the
~2 ka Pélean eruption of the San Antonio volcano (Macías et al., 2000).
Recently, the neighboring Fuego volcano (see Fig. 1) generated PDCs
with long runouts (~11 km from the volcano summit, Pardini et al.,
2019). This event was a small eruption unprecedented in the 20th and
21st centuries in terms of the number of human casualties (Pardini et al.,
2019). Hence, extraordinary activity should not be ruled out for the
Tacaná volcano based on its past eruptions.
As stated by Haynes et al. (2007), hazard maps have become
fundamental means of communicating volcanic risk to the public and

9
R. Vázquez et al.
are part of an integral process of response during a volcanic crisis.
Therefore, with our integrated maps, we seek to provide an easy means
of visualizing areas that could be potentially impacted by these volcanic
phenomena in the future. The maps are intended to be a basic tool for
Civil Protection and local authorities of both countries to be aware and
prepared for a volcanic crisis. According to MIAVITA (2012), once the
high-risk areas are mapped, it is then possible to develop contingency
plans and implement measures to reduce risk in those areas. Suchmiti­
gative actions include forbidding or discouraging the construction of
new buildings, reinforcing infrastructure, defining different types of
cultivation concerning their vulnerability within the hazard zonation,
and updating the operative and emergency plans.
6. Summary and conclusions
The main goal of the maps presented in this study is to provide a
comprehensive view of the potential hazards posed by the TVC to the
surrounding populations, through the zonation of three volcanic phe­
nomena, Depicted by zonation of the level of hazard on a color scale for
each of the two eruptive scenarios considered. From the distribution and
maximum extent of the volcanic hazards assessed, it is clear that Mexico,
with the greatest number of people living in this region, could be most
affected. This is because a broader extension of the hazard zones related
to BAFs and lahar inundation areas is distributed over Mexican territory,
in addition to the geomorphologic characteristics of the surrounding
topography that constrain further dispersion of BAFs towards
Guatemala. However, the volcanic hazards modeled for the MES sce­
nario, will cover an area ca. 8000 km2 inhabited by ~2 million people.
This factor gives grim notice that the TVC should be considered as one of
the potentially most dangerous volcanoes in Mexico. Therefore, we will
continue integrating these types of hazard maps, which encompass all
possible volcanic phenomena and their related eruptive scenarios, to
raise the awareness among the Civil Protection and government au­
thorities to enhance their operative and emergency plans, to respond
effectively to a future volcanic crisis.
Author statement
Vázquez Rosario: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology,
Software application, Validation, Formal analysis, Writing – original
draft, Reviewing and Editing. Macías José Luis: Project administration,
Funding acquisition, Supervision, Investigation, Resources, Writing –
original draft, Reviewing and Editing. Arce José Luis: Investigation,
Reviewing and Editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y
Tecnología (CONACyT) project PN522 to J.L. Macías. The authors thank
the head of the Laboratorio Interinstitucional de Análisis de Riesgos,
Guillermo Cisneros for his technical support on the cartographic mate­
rial. Special thanks to J. Eduardo Monroy S., who dedicated a lot of time
to perform the numerical simulations of lahars. We also thank students
and colleagues who participated in fieldwork with us during this project
and through the years. We are indebted to L. Becerril and N. Varley who
provided constructive and useful reviews of our manuscript. We also
appreciate the careful review provided by R.I. Tilling and the editorial
handling of Pablo Forte and Mariano Agusto.
10
Journal of South American Earth Sciences 107 (2021) 103146
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