Professional Documents
Culture Documents
subject was seen by a second physician tions this is not feasible, because the
who evaluated the findings of the first. clinic physicians were obligated in some
The laboratory examinations included instances, by the urgency of the find-
measurements of vital capacity, height, ings, to encourage the subject to place
and weight; an electrocardiogram; a himself under the care of his physician.
standard chest film; measurement of
hemoglobin, glucose, uric acid, choles- Follow-Up Procedure
terol, and phospholipid; and serological
test for syphilis. The protein, reducing The subjects were examined with the
material, and specific gravity were same procedures on or near the biennial
measured in the urine. Other pro- anniversary of their original examina-
cedures, such as 70 mm photofluoro- tion. They were reached by telephone
gram, electrokymography, ballistocardi- or mail and invited to accept an appoint-
ography, and ultracentrifugal analysis ment. If a subject did not accept, the
of serum lipoproteins have been made reason for the refusal was sought and
at one or another of the successive recorded. The health status of each per-
examinations, but these have not son who could not be reached directly
been used for diagnostic classification. was sought through relatives, neighbors,
The chemical studies will be described or associates. Every effort was made
in detail in another report. to determine whether the subject was
At the completion of the examination living or dead. In this way the optimal
the findings were briefly discussed with information of an examination in the
the subject and he was advised that he clinic was supplemented with less reli-
and the physician he had named would able information obtained through the
soon receive a report of the results of subject's personal associates.
the procedure. The medical staff tried An analysis of the follow-up status of
to avoid contributing medical advice or the 4,469 subjects who were initially
therapy beyond that necessary in situa- examined is shown in Table 2. It is
tions of medical emergencies, e.g., breast instructive to measure this follow-up per-
tumors, signs of congestive failure, un- formance for two kinds of sources of
treated diabetes, or unrecognized and information, namely, "clinical" data for
acute evidence of coronary heart dis- living subjects and "mortality" data for
ease. The report sent the physician was the others. This procedure is appro-
analogous to a hospital discharge sum- priate, since these sources are often of
mary and listed the diagnoses estab- quite different reliability. The clinical
lished, but it did not contain recom- information was obtained largely from
mendations for therapy. The research the observation of subjects at their suc-
records were available to these physi- cessive visits to the clinic, or from the
cians upon request. The subject was records of nearby hospitals. The death
sent a form letter which said in effect, data arose from the files of medical ex-
and as appropriate, "you were found to aminers, state and local health depart-
be free of cardiovascular disease," "we ments, and the clinical or autopsy reports
have confirmed the existence of a condi- of hospital deaths. During the early
tion of which you were aware," or "we years of the study there were two gen-
believe you should see your doctor con- eral hospitals in the community. All
cerning our findings." While it would the admissions of the subjects in the
be desirable from an epidemiological study to the larger (and presently the
point of view to observe the occurrence only) hospital in Framingham were re-
of disease among individuals who were viewed in order to obtain data for 'those
unaffected by knowledge of the observa- admitted for cardiovascular diseases.
6 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
No.
of Persons Per cent
Clinical Follow-Up
Total sample 4,469 100
Persons with complete 4-year follow-up 3,984 89.1
Received examination III * 3,931
Skipped examination III, but examined at IV 53
Persons with 2-year clinical follow-up 193 4.3
Refused examination at III 113
Moved before examination III 45
Died before examination III 35
No clinical follow-up 292 6.5
Refused examination at II and III 194
Moved before examination II 60
Died before examination II 38
Mortality Follow-iTp
Total sample 4,469 100
Known dead in 4-year follow-up period 73 1.6
Known living at end of 4-year follow-up 4,349 97.3
Known living at 2 years, status unknown at 4 years 19 0.4
Follow-up status unknown 28 0.6
* The successive biennial examinations of the Framingham study are designated with Roman numerals, thus
Examination III was 4 years after Examination I.
ficient for all observers to make this diagnosis. toms. These questionable manifesta-
2. Angina pectoris, with sufficient symptoms tions of disease were grouped with other
to lead all observers to agree with this diag-
nosis. abnormalities, perhaps attributable to
3. Coronary occlusion. "Sudden death" at- arteriosclerosis, such as generalized car-
tributed to coronary heart disease. diac enlargement by x-ray, and left
4. Myocardial fibrosis. Death, with either ventricular hypertrophy by ECG, or
clinical evidence of progressive cardiac failure nonspecific abnormal T waves, each
in the absence of apparent cause, or with
autopsy evidence of myocardial fibrosis which occurring in the absence of known caus-
could be attributed to atherosclerosis of the ation. None of these is included in
coronary arteries. the category "arteriosclerotic heart dis-
5. Myocardial infarction, possible, ECG evi- ease" in this analysis. The relegation
dence only. Persons without a history con- of these uncertain diagnoses to a less
sistent with myocardial infarction, but present-
ing electrocardiographic evidence suggesting, conspicuous category in the present
but not conclusive of, myocardial infarction.* analysis has an important influence upon
the prevalence and incidence rates of
"Arteriosclerosis of the aorta" is not ASHD. It seems clear that the final dis-
included in the present consideration and position of persons with these diagnoses
there were no instances of "sclerosis of of possible ASHD in a classification
a valve," each of which is an anatomical system cannot be solved until a long-
diagnosis. The decision to include the term observation of their clinical impli-
subjects with "myocardial infarction, cations has been made. Such an objec-
possible, ECG evidence only" was based tive is a major concern of the Framing-
upon the demonstration that the subse- ham study.
quent clinical courses of persons so clas- It should be understood that those
sified at the initial examination were persons with questionable evidence of
more often complicated by definite ASHD at the first examination *were,
ASHD than were those of persons for purposes of incidence measurements,
classified as "possible myocardial in- placed with all the other persons in the
farction by history" alone. The deci- population. Neither those, nor many
sion was also influenced by the greater others in the population can be con-
objectivity of ECG evidence. sidered strictly normal people for, in
There were many subjects with ques- addition to those with a question of
tionable evidence of coronary heart dis- ASHD, there were others with rheu-
ease including: (1) those subjects from matic heart disease (RHD), hyperten-
whom a history suggestive of myocardial sive cardiovascular disease (HCVD),
infarction was obtained, but without any and other diseases. These incidence esti-
supporting laboratory or clinical evi- mates for a four-year period represent
dence, and (2) those subjects from the rates of appearance of diagnosable
whom a history suggestive of angina ASHD in a population from which only
pectoris was obtained, in which the two those persons with definite ASHD have
observers were either in disagreement, been excluded.
or one or both were uncertain concern- The classification of disease in sub-
ing the interpretation of these symp- jects who died during the follow-up in-
* The abnormalities observed were
generally terval presents a different problem. The
patterns of deep Q8 and QAvF with or without best available evidence concerning these
inverted T wave which were considered to subjects is derived from a hospital rec-
represent possible posterior infarction, and ord of the terminal illness which may
deep Qi with inverted T1, usually with inverted
T wave, in V4,5,6, and with absent R waves include an autopsy report. More often
over the right ventricle. The latter changes the information was only that included
were consistent with a diagnosis of possible
anterior infarction. in a report of the medical examiner or
8 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Males Females
Age No. No. with No. No. with
Examined ASHD Rate/1,000 Examined ASHD Rate/1,000
Males Females
Diagnosis Total 3044 45-62 Total 30-44 45-62
Total 48 5 43 28 7 21
Myocardial infarction 17 2 15 1 - 1
Angina pectoris 20 2 18 18 5 13
Possible myocardial infarction,
ECG evidence only 11 1 10 9 2 7
age interval in Table 3 for all diagnostic and the rates are, therefore, minimum
categories of ASHD combined. When estimates of the true prevalence.
the diagnoses are considered collectively In Table 4 these prevalence data are
the prevalence rates for the two sexes arranged by diagnostic category as well
are very similar through age 49. In the as by age and sex. Only the actual num-
sixth decade of life a remarkable in- bers of persons are shown, and thus the
crease in prevalence occurs in both sexes, comparisons between diagnoses should
but the increase is larger for men. The be nmade only for specific age and sex
numbers of subjects over 59 years were groups. The most notable fact is the
too small to permit generalization about predominance of the diagnosis of angina
trend. It should be emphasized that pectoris in women in proportion to the
these prevalence rates are based on total number of women with ASHD.
counts of survivors of ASHD, as de. Conversely, myocardial infarction was
fined, who were able to attend the clinic, an uncommon disease in these women.
Males Females
Age at Initial Population New Population New
Examination at Risk Disease Rate/1,000 at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
Total 1,976 65 33 2,417 32 13
30-44* 1,078 13 12 1,310 - -
30-34* 333 3 388 -
35-39 388 5 490 -
40-44 357 5 432 -
Incidence of New ASHD in the Four- of the 43 men with "heart attacks"
Year Follow-Up Interval (i.e., myocardial infarction or coronary
The four-year incidence of ASHD de- occlusion) were classified as "sudden
fined above as myocardial infarction, death"; these persons, by the nature of
coronary occlusion, angina pectoris, the event, would not have reached the
myocardial fibrosis and possible myo- care and study of physicians. (This
cardial infarction by ECG is shown proportion for men aged 45-62 was 11
by sex and age in Table 5. It out of 31.) These data imply that
should be emphasized again that the studies of ASHD which are based upon
population at risk for this observation autopsy material or discharges
hospital
was composed of all the subjects in the are only observations of the dis-
partial
sample except those with the diagnosis ease. Angina pectoris, while almost as
of ASHD at entry to the study as shown frequent a new of ASHD
manifestation
in Tables 3 and 4. The incidence rates as myocardialinfarction for men of all
were highly dependent on age and they ages, occurredmore commonly after age
were two to three times higher in males 45 than before. The data in Table 6 have
than in females. There is a suggestion been grouped into two age groups, 30-44
that an upturn in the trend of incidence and 45-62 years. The older age group
rates for each sex occurs at about age includes 80 per cent of all ASHD inci-
45, a conclusion which has been used dence for men and the entirety of the
in grouping these data for subsequent ASHD incidence in women.
analysis. The phenomenon of sudden death was
The incidence data are arranged by the only manifestation of disease in al-
diagnosis for specific age and sex groups most half of all subjects with myocardial
in Table 6. Since both fatalities and infarction who developed new ASHD ex-
surviving persons are counted, it is of clusive of angina pectoris and possible
interest to consider the early mortality myocardial infarction by ECG. In con-
characteristics of ASHD. The promi- trast to the sudden deaths are the so-
nence of "sudden death" as a manifesta- called "silent" infarctions, the surviving
tion of ASHD in men is a striking subjects for whom the history of symp-
feature of these observations. Thirteen toms is absent or insufficient to contrib-
Total 65 13 52 32 - 32
Myocardial infarction 30 10 20 4 - 4
Surviving persons * 27 9 18 3 3
Fatalities 3 1 2 1 1
Coronary occlusion w/o infarction t 13 2 11 1 - 1
Myocardial fibrosis with death 2 - 2 1 - 1
Angina pectoris 20 1 19 24 24
Possible myocardial infarction 2 - 2
* Survived to fourth anniversary of initial examination except for two persons who died from second coronary
occlusion before Examination III.
t "Sudden death."
FRAMINGHAM (MASS.) STUDY 11
ute to the diagnosis, who were diagnosed females 6 may lead to confusion with
on the basis of ECG evidence only. this disease, and (2) the manifestations
Seven of these "silent" infarctions oc- of ASHD in women may differ from
curred during the four-year follow-up those in men. These problems may be
period covered by this report, four resolved with additional observation.
among men and three among women. The tendency of the diagnosis of definite
Indeed, one of these asymptomatic heart but uncomplicated angina pectoris in
attacks was occurring (but was not diag- women to shift to questionable angina
nosed) at the time of the initial exami- pectoris in successive examinations, and
nation, since a second ECG made at a perhaps back to definite angina pectoris,
special examination one month later suggests that the clinical interpretation
confirmed the usual evolution of ECG of symptoms of angina pectoris in
changes characteristic of a myocardial women is less reliable than in men. This
infarction. The total of seven of these shifting diagnosis was found despite
asymptomatic or "silent" coronary at- rigorous attention to questioning technic
tacks which occurred in the four-year and interpretative criteria. The varia-
follow-up period is to be compared with bility must include, among other things,
the total incidence of 36 persons with diagnostic error and the disappearance
definite or possible myocardial infarc- of symptoms of angina pectoris as a
tion. The subject of "silent" infarctions result of a decrease of physical activity
has been discussed recently by Snow, or an adaptation to the symptoms. It
Jones, and Daber 4 who concluded that will be necessary to trace the outcome
the wide range of frequencies of this of angina pectoris, the common mani-
form of coronary disease was the result festation of ASHD in women, in order
of the variable criteria applied in differ- to determine whether this condition is
ent studies. It is apparent that the an antecedent stage of myocardial in-
"silent" coronary is an important part farction and coronary occlusion, or
of the disease. Furthermore, there were whether the disease takes a different
persons in this study group who at some course in women.
time showed definitive ECG evidence of
a myocardial infarction but who later The Association of Certain Clinical
lost all residual evidence of ECG changes. Attributes with the Development of
The difficulty of diagnosing ASHD, un- ASHD
derestimated by some,5 will no doubt
continue to obscure the evaluation of The Framingham study is predicated
causal relationships. on the belief that an understanding of
Angina pectoris represents about one- the pathogenesis of ASHD will be facili-
third of all the new ASHD in men and tated by a careful recording of the char-
this disease generally appeared in men acteristics of the subjects before disease
after age 45. The new ASHD in women, develops and analysis of antecedent dif-
occurring always after age 45, was pre- ferences between the group which de-
dominantly angina pectoris. These data velops disease while under observation
emphasize the dissimilarity of ASHD in and the group which does not. For the
the two sexes. The predominance of present analysis only the male subjects
angina pectoris as the manifestation of in the age range 45-62 at initial ex-
ASHD in women suggests several pos- amination have been considered, since
sible explanations, none of which can be this is the only category in which new
established with these data: (1) the diag- disease occurred with sufficient fre-
nosis may be faulty. The greater preva- quency in the first four years of fol-
lence of neurocirculatory asthenia in low-up to permit detailed analysis.
12 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
There were 52 men in this age group, and the incidence rate per 1,000 for the
free of disease at the initial examination, four-year period. It is then possible to
who developed ASHD in the subsequent test the null hypothesis that the observed
four years; these represent 80 per cent differences between subgroupings are no
of all men in the study who developed greater than would be expected by
new ASHD in this follow-up period. The chance variation of an incidence rate
restriction of this analysis to the 45-62 common to all subgroupings, given the
age group was also influenced by the numbers under observation. In the sec-
recognition that ASHD occurring before tions immediately following are shown
that age is relatively uncommon and pos- data for blood pressure and hyperten-
sibly a different disease, since it is gen- sive disease, relative fatness, and serum
erally characterized by a more profound cholesterol which suggest that for each
disturbance of cholesterol metabolism.7'8 of these characteristics taken individu-
The analytical procedure in the fol- ally the assumption of no association
lowing sections consists of the classifica- appears untenable. In a subsequent sec-
tion of individuals by various char- tion it will be shown that the three fac-
acteristics, such as blood pressure level, tors taken together will permit even
relative weight, or serum cholesterol stronger inferences as to association of
level as these were observed at the initial these factors and risk of ASHD.
examination. For each of these subgroup-
ings of individuals who were at risk of High Blood Pressure
coronary disease for the four-year fol-
low-up, there is recorded the number of It is widely believed that high blood
individuals who developed new disease pressure (HBP) augments the develop-
Population New
at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
All persons 898 52 58
Definite hypertensive heart disease 82 8 98
Definite hypertension 124 10 81
Possible hypertensive heart disease 92 7 76
Borderline hypertension
without heart disease 243 15 62
Normotension 310 8 26
(Cerebrovascular accident, or
rheumatic heart disease not
included above) (47) (4)
Normotension: Left arm blood pressure determinations arc below 140/90 on independent observations by two physicians.
Hypertension: Definite hypertension was diagnosed wben both left arm systolic blood pressure determinations recorded
by physicians were 160 mm Hg or over and/or all left arm diastolic blood pressures were 95 or over, or when
each blood pressure reading was either a high systolic (160 or over) or a high diastolic (95 or over) level.
Borderline hypertension: All others.
Hypertensive heart disease: When in addition to definite hypertension, definite left ventricular hypertrophy or
generalized cardiac enlargement by x-ray or left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG was present.
Possible hypertensive heart disease: When hypertension was definite in the presence of doubtful left ventricular
hypertrophy (generalized cardiac enlargement) by x-ray or ECG or hypertension was doubtful, but with definite
left ventricular hypertrophy or generalized cardiac enlargement or both hypertension and left ventricular hyper.
trophy (or generalized cardiac enlargement) were doubtful.
FRAMINGHAM (MASS.) STUDY 13
Population New
at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
ment of ASHD. The prominence of this thorax which were also made, the latter
relationship has led some clinicians to have not been used in this evaluation.
conclude that the major part of the The data in Table 8 indicate that the
hypertension problem lies in the preven- x-ray diagnoses of definite or possible
tion of atherosclerosis. The relation of LVH or GCE were not associated with
high blood pressure and hypertensive the development of ASHD. On the other
heart disease to the four-year incidence hand, ECG evidence of LVH, whether
of ASHD in the Framingham study are definite or possible, was highly associ-
shown in Table 7. The incidence rates ated with the incidence of ASHD
indicate a trend from the low of 26 per (X2 = 21.7, n = 1, p < 0.001). These
1,000 for 310 persons with normal blood data raise many questions: Is the effect
pressure and free of all other kinds of of HBP mediated through acceleration
heart disease to a high of 98 per 1,000 of atherogenesis, through precipitation
for 82 persons with definite hyperten- of the occlusive event by mural damage
sive heart disease at the initial examina- which initiates thrombosis, or by myo-
tion. It is clear that HBP is significantly cardial hypertrophy which aggravates
associated with the incidence of ASHD the inadequacy of coronary flow? The
(X2= 10.2, n =4, p =0.04). last proposal is not well supported by
The relationship of specific signs of the low association of x-ray diagnoses
hypertensive cardiovascular disease to of LVH and GCE with the incidence of
the incidence of ASHD was considered. new ASHD. The electrocardiographic
In Table 8 the relationship of cardiac diagnosis of LVH is, on the other hand,
hypertrophy measured with the chest very highly associated with the incidence
film and with the ECG pattern of left of new ASHD. It appears that these
ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is con- methods appraise different aspects of
sidered. The x-ray diagnosis in this in- cardiac function. The explanation of
stance is based upon the radiologist's this difference of association with the
"4pattern recognition" of generalized car- appearance of ASHD may lie in a lower
diac enlargement (GCE) and left ven- sensitivity of this ECG pattern to car-
tricular hypertrophy. While this esti- diac damage. It is clear that this find-
mate is highly correlated with frontal ing of LVH by ECG needs further study,
area measurements of the heart and because any laboratory measurement
14 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
which has predicted a fifth of the men tribution of ages shown in Table 3.
who developed definite ASHD in four Medians were computed for the male
years may be adaptable to clinical needs. population for each inch of height in
the range 61-73 inches. In this range
Weight * there was clearly a linear relation be-
tween median weight and height and
Since hypertension and obesity have the data were smoothed by use of the
been found to be correlated,9 it is of in- following formula (where weight is in
terest to examine the relationship of pounds and height in inches): Median
some estimates of fatness and fattening weight = 136 + 4 (ht. -60).
to the incidence of ASHD. This task is An extrapolation of one inch was
complicated by the lack of either precise made in each direction to cover the
measurements of fatness or a definitive height range 60-74 inches which in-
criterion for judging relative fatness. cluded all but five of the men aged 45
The actuarial data 10, 11 have tended to or over. Since obesity is common in
show that obesity, especially in men, is this population, it follows that the weight
associated with a large increase in the distributions reflect this in the param-
risk of ASHD. These conclusions have eters; but the ratio of an individual's
been based upon very large, if super- observed weight to the median weight
ficially observed, populations with the for height of the population, which
assessments of obesity derived from is called the "Framingham relative
weight and height measurements col- weight" (FRW), does not presume to
lected by many people under variable judge desirability, only to supply a
conditions. The criteria of obesity in reasonably stable denominator or refer-
most of those studies have been derived ence base for the individual's observed
from the actuarial tables of observed weight.
weight for height and sex collected in The data presented in Table 9 sup-
the early part of this century. Because port the hypothesis that obesity is re-
of the limitations of these methods it lated to risk of coronary attack (X2 =
was elected to establish a reference base 12.8, n = 3, p =0.005). The upper
of weight by sex and height within the tenth of the population in respect to
Framingham population. "Framingham relative weight" showed
The present analysis of the relation an incidence rate three times that of
of weight to ASHD has been based on the population whose weight was below
an index relating height to weight which, the median for height. There was a
in order to prevent confusion with other regular downward progression of inci-
relative weight indexes, will be termed dence rates from the highest relative
"Framingham relative weight" (FRW). weight group down to the median; with
This index is the ratio (x 100) of an the small amount of data at hand there
individual's observed weight to the appeared to be no gradient in the group
median weight for his sex-height group below the median.
in the entire Framingham cross-section The study also provided information
at the initial examination. The median on change of weight since age 25 based
weights are, thus, based on a population on the subject's recollection of his weight
with an age range 29-62 with the dis- at that age. Although this kind of infor-
* Men were weighed and measured with mation is liable to considerable memory
shirt and shoes removed. Height was recorded error, it may be a useful alternative way
to next lower quarter inch and weight to the of estimating obesity, if a man's weight
next lower quarter pound. Tabulations were at 25 is considered in some sense his
made on data coded to the next lower full inch
and the next lower full pound. "ideal weight." The association of this
FRAMINGHAM (MASS.) STUDY 15
Population New
at Risk Disease Rate/ 1,000
Framingham relative weight:
All persons 898 52 58
120 or more 81 10 123
113-119 95 10 * 105
100-112 320 16 * 50
Less than 100 397 16 40
Unknown 5 - -
Weight change since age 25:
All persons 898 52 58
Increase 30 per cent or more 78 9 115
Increase 20-29 per cent 123 12 98
Increase less than 20 per cent 572 24 42
Unknown 125 7 56
* Two persons with new disease, outside of height range for which relative weights were regularly computed have
relative weights computed by extrapolation as follows: (1) 56 inches, 121 lbh., extrapolated FRW, 100; (2) 58 inches,
148 lbs., extrapolated FRW, 116.
measure with the present Framingham ASHD. Since only 10 per cent of the
relative weight for individuals is high. Framingham population falls above the
Increase of 'weight since age 25 is asso- FRW of 120, it follows that these are
ciated with increased risk of coronary very obese people. For example, the
disease (X2 10.9, n =2, p = 0.005). FRW of 120 for a man 68 inches tall
These data on weight are confirmatory would be 202 pounds.
of life insurance studies, but are in con-
trast with the findings described by Serum Cholesterol
Keys 5 who found that only 4.8 per cent
of a group of 105 men with "ischemic A number of studies have shown the
heart disease" were above a relative association of elevation of serum choles-
weight of 120 using a distribution of terol with increased incidence of arterio-
relative weight not markedly different sclerotic heart disease. The recent, na-
than that used here. In the present tion-wide Cooperative Lipoprotein Study
experience, of 52 men with ASHD, 10 included data on serum samples supplied
(19 per cent) were in the group with by the Framingham study, although
relative weight exceeding 120. those cholesterol determinations were
The present experience confirms the carried out in another laboratory.8 The
widespread belief that obesity is associ- data presented here are based on deter-
ated with the development of ASHD. minations of serum total cholesterol
The observed incidence rate in men with which were made in the Framingham
FRW of 120 or more was about twice laboratory by the method of Abell, et
that of the entire population and three al.12 During the period when much of
times that of men with FRW less than the data were being collected the labo-
100. However, there is little or no re- ratory standardized its results by ex-
lation of moderate obesity with new change of serum samples with the four
16 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Population New
at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
Attributes *
Blood Relative Total Population New
Pressure Weight Cholesterol at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
All persons t 877 51 58
Classified on blood pressure (men with high relative weight or high cholesterol omitted):
High Med. or low Med. or low 91 9 100
Borderline Med. or low Med. or low 242 9 37
Normotension Med. or low Med. or low 240 4 17
Classified on relative weight (men with high blood pressure or high cholesterol omitted):
Border. or normo. High Med. or low 87 5 57
Border. or normo. Medium Med. or low 198 5 25
Border. or normo. Low Med. or low 284 8 28
Classified on cholesterol (men with high blood pressure or high relative weight omitted):
Border. or normo. Med. or low High 112 9 80
Border. or normo. Med. or low Medium 178 9 51
Border. or normo. Med. or low Low 304 4 13
* Classification of attributes:
Blood pressure
High-consistently i60 systolic or over or 100 diastolic or over
Normotension-eonsistently below 140 systolic and 90 diastolic
Borderline high blood pressure-all other
Relative weight
High-Framingham relative weight 113 or over
Medium-Framingham relative weight 100-112
Low-Framingham relative weight under 100
Total cholesterol
High-260 mg per cent or over
Medium 225-259 mg per cent
Low-under 225 mg per cent
t Excludes 21 persons for (one developing new disease) whom measurements of one or more attributes were not
available.
18 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Attributes *
Population at Risk
Blood Relative Total New
Pressure Weight Cholesterol No. Per cent Disease Rate/1,000
medium or low levels of the other two.* who were in medium or low categories
It will be seen that blood pressure level of the other two variables was about
is clearly associated with risk of coro- six times that of normotensive men.
nary disease in the absence of elevation Cholesterol also showed a clear associa-
of relative weight or cholesterol (X2 tion with risk (X2 = 11.6, n = 2, p
=
12.1, n= 2, p= 0.002). The risk 0.003), and again the risk among men
among men with high blood pressure high in cholesterol was about six times
that among men in the low group in
* For this and the following analysis the the absence of elevation of blood pres-
level of blood pressure which is termed "high" sure or relative weight. Although there
is different from the definition of "hyperten- is an indicated excess risk among men
sion" used in Table 7. "High blood pressure"
is defined here as pressure consistently at or with high relative weight, on the data
above 160 mm Hg systolic or 100 mm Hg dia- at hand the observed difference is not
stolic. Use of this criterion places 20 per cent
of the men in the "high" category and thus statistically significant (X2= 2.3, n
corresponds to the relative weight criterion of 2, p = 0.32). Apparently most of the
113 and the serum cholesterol criterion of 260 association of risk of coronary disease
mg per cent, each of which place 20 per cent
of the men in the "high" category. with obesity is accounted for by the
FRAMINGHAM (MASS.) STUDY 19
Attributes *
Population at Risk
Blood Total New
Pressure Cholesterol No. Per cent Disease Rate/1,000
All persons t 877 100 51 58
High on both 37 4.2 6 162
High High
High on one only 271 30.9 27 100
High Medium 51 3
High Low 87 9
Borderline High 75 10
Normotension High 58 5
Border or medium on both 115 13.1 8 70
Borderline Medium
Border or medium on one only 284 32.4 8 28
Borderline Low 187 6
Normotension Medium 97 2
Normotension or low 170 19.4 2 12
Normotension Low
* See footnote on Table 12 for definition of attributes.
t Excludes 21 persons (one developing new disease) for whom measurements of one or more attributes were not
available.
1,000 and include only 12 per cent ship of socioeconomic status to the risk
of the men who developed disease. of developing ASHD (Table 15). Al-
Of particular interest are the 17 men though the incidence rate of 70 per
who were high in all three attri- 1,000 for persons with no more than
butes. In this group there were five grade school education is slightly higher
new occurrences-odds of five to 12 to than that of the base population, it does
lose in four years. not prove to be significantly higher, and
In view of the suggestion that the the absence of a trend among the other
effect of obesity on risk may be through categories gives no suggestion of an im-
its relation with hypertension data are portant association. It is of interest that
presented in Table 14 classified on blood men with high school, college, business,
pressure and cholesterol only. It is pos- or graduate school training showed rates
sible using only these two variables to no greater than those with less educa-
separate out a group high on one or the tion. There is very little evidence in
other of the two which includes 35 per these data to suggest a relationship of
cent of the men and two-thirds of the socioeconomic status with the appear-
new disease (33 out of 51). The four- ance of ASHD, although the classifica-
year incidence in this group was 107 tion by education may not be a sufficient
per 1,000. This group may be con- index of this variable. Since the Fra-
trasted with a group of men who were mingham population contains an un-
low on both, or medium or borderline usually broad array of occupations, this
on only one, which included over half attribute will be studied in greater de-
of the population (52 per cent), but only tail. Morris 13 also found but little re-
20 per cent of the new disease (10 out lationship between educational accom-
of 51). The four-year incidence in this plishment and the risk of coronary
"low" group was 22 per 1,000-only disease in the British occupational mor-
one-fifth of the incidence found in the tality experience.
high group.
Smoking
Education
It has been proposed that smoking is
The formal educational experience of associated in varying degrees with the
the subjects in the Framingham study development of ASHD.14 15 The data
may be used as an index of the relation- in Table 16 illustrate certain interpreta-
Population New
Educational Status at Risk Disease Rate/ 1,000
All persons 898 52 58
Grade school only, or none 386 27 70
High school, not graduated 139 6 43
High school graduate * 182 9 49
College 158 8 51
Unknown 33 2 t
* Includes "business college" and specialized trade school subsequent to high school graduation.
t Rate not computed for base less than 50.
FRAMINGHAM (MASS.) STUDY 21
Population New
Smoking Pattern at Risk Disease Rate/1,000
tive difficulties in the present body of of ASHD with smoking is not as strong
data. The variability of attack rates is as that shown with elevated blood pres-
large and without a regular progression sure, relative weight, and cholesterol.
among men with different smoking
habits. Any attempt to consolidate per- Discussion
sons into broader categories of smoking
habits in order to gain the advantage of This study has identified three readily
larger numbers has major effects upon measured characteristics of human sub-
the resultant incidence rates. Neverthe- jects which are frequently present in
less, very heavy smokers showed high advance of the development of defi-
incidence and the light cigarette smokers nite ASHD. These are high blood
and pipe and cigar smokers showed pressure, overweight, and hypercholes-
lower incidence of ASHD. But persons teremia. Each of these appears to have
who had never smoked, or had quit association with the development of the
smoking, showed a rate as high as the disease; the group of individuals in
entire group who reported smoking 10 which all three are coincidentally high
or more cigarettes per day. Doll and show great increases of incidence of
Hill,16 in their second report on mor- ASHD. High blood pressure and hyper-
tality among British doctors, showed an cholesteremia in this group clearly have
upward trend of mortality from coro- some independent association with risk
nary thrombosis in relation to smoking of disease. The role of obesity, which is
in men who were either under 55 years also associated with heart disease, is not
or 75 and over, but very little trend in as clear in view of the demonstrated
the age range 55-74. Generalizations association of high blood pressure and
cannot be made until additional mor- obesity. The demonstration of the asso-
bidity and mortality experience become ciation of these clinical attributes with
available from the present study, but ASHD should encourage the search for
these data do suggest that the association common factors and explanatory mecha-
22 APRIL 1957 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH