Energy 222 (2021) 119918

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Novel forecast-based dispatch strategy optimization for PV hybrid

systems in real time
Carlos D. Rodríguez-Gallegos a, b, *, Lokesh Vinayagam a, Oktoviano Gandhi a,
Gokhan Mert Yagli b, Manuel S. Alvarez-Alvarado c, Dipti Srinivasan b, Thomas Reindl a,
S.K. Panda a, b
a
Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS), National University of Singapore (NUS), 117574, Singapore
b
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore (NUS), 117583, Singapore
c
Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Escuela Superior Polit
ecnica del Litoral (ESPOL), Guayaquil, EC090150, Ecuador

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper proposes a new method to optimize the scheduling of off-grid systems composed of solar
Received 13 October 2020 panels, batteries, and diesel generators in real time. The approach takes into account the load and
Received in revised form irradiance forecasted values for the near future to determine the optimal power generation and the
13 January 2021
operation of the different energy sources which achieve the lowest cost while fulfilling the provided
Accepted 15 January 2021
Available online 23 January 2021
constraints. A real-time simulator is employed to run the simulations with a high degree of accuracy to
further validate the obtained results as well as to analyze the grid quality parameters (frequency, voltage,
and harmonics). To validate the effectiveness of the proposed forecast-based approach, the performance
Keywords:
Forecasting
from two benchmark algorithms commonly applied in these systems are also estimated. The final results
PV-Battery-diesel hybrid systems reveal that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve 5% cost savings with respect to the benchmark
Real-time simulator approaches while still fulfilling the grid quality constraints. The proposed method can then be applied for
Scheduling optimization real off-grid systems to further enhance their performance.
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Credit author statement
Carlos D. Rodríguez-Gallegos: The conceptualization of the work
from this manuscript was discussed, The data analysis was per-
formed, The investigation and methodology was performed, The
original draft was written by CDRG and reviewed and edited by all
other co-authors. Lokesh Vinayagam: The conceptualization of the
work from this manuscript was discussed, The data analysis was
performed, The investigation and methodology was performed.
Oktoviano Gandhi: The conceptualization of the work from this
manuscript was discussed, The data analysis was performed, The
investigation and methodology was performed. Gokhan Mert Yagli:
The data analysis was performed, The investigation and method-
ology was performed. Manuel S. Alvarez-Alvarado: The data anal-
ysis was performed, The investigation and methodology was
performed. Dipti Srinivasan: The conceptualization of the work
* Corresponding author. Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS),
National University of Singapore (NUS), 117574, Singapore.
E-mail address: carlos.rodriguez@nus.edu.sg (C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos).
from this manuscript was discussed. Thomas Reindl: The concep-
tualization of the work from this manuscript was discussed, The
funding acquisition belongs to, The supervision of this work was
carried out. S K. Panda: The conceptualization of the work from this
manuscript was discussed, The funding acquisition belongs to, The
supervision of this work was carried out.
1. Introduction
Dispatch strategy, also known as scheduling, refers to the
operation and power control of the different energy sources in a
system. In this study, the sources correspond to the PV system,
battery system and diesel generators. It is then desired to control
these sources to satisfy the defined constraints, such as the fulfill-
ment of the load demand, and to reduce the overall costs and CO2
emissions, among other objectives.
With respect to PV hybrid systems, the literature presents
different works to optimize their dispatch strategy, typically to
achieve cost reductions, e.g. Refs. [1e5] where different optimiza-
tion algorithms are proposed (some of these presented in Ref. [6]).
From the previous references, as well as from many more that can

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.119918
0360-5442/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al. Energy 222 (2021) 119918

be found in the literature, it can be noted that the time resolution of The rest of the paper is described as follows: Section 2 defines
these optimization algorithms tend to be several minutes or longer, the properties of the employed RTS as well as the general equations
1 h being the most common assumption. While it is understandable and constraints applied in the system. Then, in Section 3, the pro-
that large time steps are desired to reduce the computational in- posed forecast-based optimization algorithm is described together
tensity when running these simulations, its direct drawback is that with two traditional benchmark algorithms. Section 4 describes the
the power values, such as solar power, are usually not constant case study, indicating the real and forecasted load, irradiance pro-
during this time range. Consequently, even when the optimization files, as well as the properties of the PV hybrid system. Subse-
results show an enhancement in the performance of their studied quently, Section 5 shows and discusses the results. Finally, the
systems, their potential for implementation in real systems remains overall conclusions of this work are provided in Section 6.
unknown. Hence, any proposed dispatch strategy algorithm needs
to be validated before it is implemented in a real hybrid system.
2. System model
Due to the large investment required to build a real system, another
option would be to employ real-time simulators (RTS), an alter-
The employed RTS is Typhoon Hardware in Loop 604 (HIL604).
native which can assess the system operation with a high level of
To carry out its modelings, the time is discretized by applying a
accuracy. Therefore, in this work we employ an RTS which is able to
time-slotted system. This is indexed by t, 1
t
T, where T is the
perform simulations with a time step in the order of microseconds
total number of time slots. Dt, the slot size, which can be set in the
to test our optimization algorithms.
range of 0.5e20 ms, is set to 2 ms in this work. Fig. 1 a) presents the
Another limitation from typical scheduling optimization works
discussed hardware as well as the Typhoon SCADA interface for a
presented in the literature is the lack of analysis on how their al-
diesel generator. Fig. 1 b) shows the PV hybrid system in the
gorithms will affect the grid quality, namely, grid voltage, fre-
Typhoon Schematic Editor. The “PV system” block contains the
quency, and harmonics [7,8]. For example, when there is a high
solar array as well as the three-phase full-bridge PV inverter and
generation from renewable sources which goes beyond the load
filters. Similarly, the “Battery system” block contains the battery
demand, the grid voltage and frequency will tend to increase and
bank together with its three-phase full-bridge converter and
vice versa [9e11]. In addition, when high variations in the power
required filters. The “Diesel generator” block contains the diesel
demand (or generation) occur, transients will be produced [12].
generators (DGs) with their voltage/frequency controller and syn-
While is true that papers proposing scheduling optimization algo-
chronism blocks to assure that the diesel generators are connected
rithms have considered grid voltage variations, e.g. Refs. [13,14], the
to the grid only if they are in synchronism with it. The “load” block
frequency and harmonics estimation tends to be missing due to
contains the overall load demand of the system. Finally, the
their higher complexity. Transient analyses also tend to be avoided
“scheduling algorithm” block corresponds to the main controller
as transients tend to occur within a shorter time frame. As such, to
which generates the set points of the power generation and oper-
have a proper idea regarding the potential implementation of any
ation state of the energy sources of interest based on the applied
proposed scheduling algorithm in real life, its impact on the grid
algorithm (see Section 3).
should also be comprehensively analyzed. This has been taken into
The overall cost of the system can be split into the battery and
account in this work, where the grid voltage, frequency and har-
DG operational cost (CBAT and CDG , respectively):
monics have also been studied.
Furthermore, while most works only apply the present condi- X
T
tions, e.g. current irradiance and load demand, to run their pro- CT ¼ CBATðtÞ þ CDGðtÞ : (1)
posed scheduling algorithms, there is interest to perform t¼1
scheduling optimization while also considering the future weather
Because batteries degrade over time, they have a finite lifetime
and load conditions. Although there are works which aim to also
after which they need to be replaced. The charging/discharging
consider future weather/load conditions in their optimization code
lifetime, i.e. lifetime estimation based on the calculation of the total
[15e17], in general they do not apply a forecasting algorithm but
energy that a single battery will discharge during its lifetime,
tend to simply assume uncertainties to represent them. In our
E ½kWh [24], is considered in this work. The variable CBATðtÞ then
study, we propose to apply a real forecast approach on the load and
represents the cost of the battery to deliver energy, i.e. the more
weather-related profiles to properly analyze whether forecasting
energy it discharges, the sooner it needs to be replaced [25]:
can significantly enhance the scheduling optimization.
As PV hybrid systems have been installed in real life, real ap-
S,cBAT PdðtÞ ,Dt
proaches to control the dispatch strategy and ON/OFF state of DGs CBATðtÞ ¼ , ; (2)
have already been implemented. Two of them, referred in this work
E hBAT;inv
as the diesel generator backup (DGA) [18e21] and spinning reserve
where S ½kWh is the battery capacity and cBAT ½USD =kWh is the
(SRA) algorithms [22,23] are also implemented as benchmarks for
our proposed algorithm. In this study, we propose a forecast-based battery acquisition cost per unit energy, PdðtÞ ½kW corresponds to
algorithm (FBA) which aims to apply load and irradiance forecast to the discharging power from the battery inverters at time slot t and
better optimize the scheduling of the different energy sources in hBAT;inv ½% is the average weighted efficiency of these inverters.
real time. Hence, the main contributions of this work are: The cost associated to the diesel generators, CDGðtÞ [USD], is
calculated by estimating the amount of diesel used at time slot t,
1. A novel forecast-based approach has been proposed to optimize namely, kdieselðtÞ ½l. The diesel consumption is calculated as [26,27]:
the operation of a PV hybrid system in real time,
2. A real-time simulator has been employed to test the proposed nDG 
X 
and benchmark algorithms to accurately analyze their perfor- kdieselðtÞ ¼ aDG , PDGðj;tÞ þ bDG , PDG;nominalðjÞ , uðj;tÞ , Dt;
j¼1
mance and implementation potential in real life, and
3. The influence of the scheduling algorithms on the grid quality (3)
has been comprehensively analyzed, i.e. frequency, voltage and
harmonics. where PDGðj;tÞ ½W is the power produced by the jth DG at the time
slot t while uðj;tÞ indicates its status, i.e. uðj;tÞ ¼ 0 if DG is OFF, and
2
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al.
Fig. 1. a) Typhoon HIL604 hardware and SCADA interface; b) PV hybrid system in the Typhoon Schematic Editor.
uðj;tÞ ¼ 1 otherwise. The values of the coefficients aDG ½l =kWh and
bDG ½l =kWh depend on the quality of the DGs (the lower they are,
the less diesel is consumed to generate a specific power). The cost
related to the operation of DGs can then be calculated:
CDGðtÞ ¼ cdiesel ,kdieselðtÞ ;
where cdiesel ½USD =l is the diesel price.
In addition, there are also limitations on the power from bat-
teries and diesel generators. The charging and discharging power of
the batteries at the AC side (PcðtÞ and PdðtÞ , respectively) need to be
controlled to avoid the acceleration of degradation processes [28]:
Pc;max
0
PcðtÞ
; ct2f1; /; Tg;
hBAT;inv
0
PdðtÞ
Pd;max , hBAT;inv ; ct2f1; /; Tg;
where Pc;max ½kW and Pd;max ½kW are the maximum charging and
discharging power of the batteries, respectively.
To avoid issues related to DGs’ proper operation (such as oiling
up of the silencer, bore glazing, and high temperature), their power
is typically limited within their nominal ðPDG;nominalðjÞ Þ and a min-
imum value (PDG;minðjÞ ) [29]:
PDG;minðjÞ
PDGðj;tÞ
PDG;nominalðjÞ ;
ct2f1; /; Tg; j2f1; /; nDG g; uðj;tÞ 2f1g:
3. Algorithms
As mentioned in Section 1, besides the proposed scheduling
algorithm, two algorithms which have been applied in real systems
are also simulated and act as benchmarks. Although these algo-
rithms follow different principles, they can control the same state
and set points of the equipment of interest, which are:
1. State of the PV array (connected or disconnected),
2. State of the diesel generators (ON/OFF), and
3. Set points of the desired power output of the diesel generators.
Other signals which are controllable but are not, are:
1. Power output from the PV array: PV systems are usually oper-
ated at their maximum power point, as is the case in this study,
Energy 222 (2021) 119918
2. Power produced by the battery bank: as the PV array operates at
its maximum power point with a power injected into the grid of
PPVðtÞ , and the “scheduling algorithm” block sets the desired
power output from the diesel generators, the power of the
battery system, in order to control the grid voltage and fre-
(4) quency, will be the one to assure that the power generated is
equal to the power demanded by the load PloadðtÞ . By neglecting
the distribution losses, this relation can be presented as (see
Fig. 1b)):
X
nDG
PPVðtÞ þ PdðtÞ  PcðtÞ þ PDGðj;tÞ ,uðj;tÞ ¼ PloadðtÞ ;
j¼1
(8)
ct2f1; /; Tg:
(5)
Therefore, by knowing the power from the PV system, load
(6) demand, and by controlling the power from the diesel genera-
tors, the power from the battery system can be indirectly
controlled to a certain extent.
The three scheduling algorithms have three stages in their
operation (shown in Fig. 2), and are ordered based on their
priority:
1. Battery safety,
2. DG ON/OFF state: define the ON/OFF state of diesel generators
under normal operation, i.e. when the battery safety stage has
(7)
not been activated, and
3. DG power: define the set points of the power of diesel genera-
tors under normal operation.
The stage with the highest priority corresponds to the battery
safety and aims to keep the battery state of charge (SOC) between a
minimum SOCmin and maximum SOCmax defined in Eq. (9) [30]:
SOCmin
SOCðtÞ
SOCmax ; ct2f1; /; Tg: (9)
On the one hand, if at any given time the battery SOC is below
SOCmin , the required generators will be turned ON to contribute to
the load demand and charge the batteries. The power output from
these generators will be limited based on the maximum charging
power from the batteries (Eq. (5)). Once the battery SOC has
increased to a certain level SOCbsmin , the DGs will return to their
original ON/OFF state. On the other hand, if at any given time the
battery SOC is above SOCmax (condition from Eq. (6) not fulfilled), all
diesel generators will be turned OFF and the PV array will be
disconnected from the grid until the battery SOC has decreased to a
certain level SOCbsmax . Afterwards, the DGs will return to their
3
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al.
Fig. 2. Stages of the scheduling algorithms.
original ON/OFF state and the PV array will be connected back to
the grid.
The battery safety stage algorithm is the same for all the studied
scheduling algorithms. Nevertheless, each algorithm implements
different principles for the DG ON/OFF state stage and DG power
stage. These stages will be described in the next subsections for the
two benchmark algorithms and the proposed one.
3.1. Proposed forecast-based algorithm (FBA)
The stage of the DG ON/OFF state for the proposed FBA is only
applied after the DGs have maintained a fixed operation state for at
least TONOFF minutes as it is not recommended for DGs to be
turned OFF shortly after they have been turned ON and vice versa.
Once this time has passed, the load and irradiance forecasts for the
next TONOFF minutes are obtained to optimize the ON/OFF com-
bination of the DGs which produce the lowest cost during this
forecasted time range. For each ON/OFF combination the proposed
scheduling algorithm is applied to optimize the power generation
of the energy sources. The combination which produces the lowest
cost, while satisfying the load demand, will then be selected. This
method will later be repeated after the DGs have kept a fixed
operation state for at least TONOFF minutes.
The proposed scheduling algorithm aims to satisfy the load
demand while fulfilling the given constraints and enhancing the
overall cost reduction. This algorithm works as follows:
1. If the power produced from the PV system is higher than the
load demand, i.e. PPVðtÞ > PloadðtÞ , it means that the PV system
alone can satisfy the load demand. Therefore, the power output
from DGs is set to their minimum defined (PDG;min ) to fulfill
constraint (7).
4
Energy 222 (2021) 119918
2. If the power produced from the PV system is lower than the load
demand, i.e. PPVðtÞ < PloadðtÞ , batteries and/or diesel generators
must also generate power based on the following criteria:
1. If the cost per kWh to discharge the batteries is lower than
the one from the diesel generators, i.e. S,cEBAT < aDG ,cdiesel , the
battery, together with the PV system, are used to satisfy the
load demand. If batteries cannot provide all the required
power, the DGs which are ON will then be employed as well.
2. If the cost per kWh to discharge the batteries is higher than
the one from the diesel generators, i.e. S,cEBAT > aDG ,cdiesel , the
DGs which are ON, together with the PV system, are used to
satisfy the load demand. If DGs cannot provide all the
required power, batteries will then be employed as well.
3. If the power from a DG is below PDG;min, it will then be set to
PDG;min to fulfill condition from Eq. (7).
3.2. Benchmark algorithm 1: DG-backup-based (DGA)
This algorithm gives priority for the PV array and batteries to
provide the required power to satisfy the load demand while the
diesel generators are kept as a backup. One the one hand, if the PV
system generates power beyond the load demand, i.e.
PPVðtÞ > PloadðtÞ , then the extra power will be used to charge the
battery. On the other hand, if PPVðtÞ < PloadðtÞ , the batteries will
discharge to satisfy this demand. Only when the batteries have
reached the minimum state of charge (SOCmin ), the battery safety
stage is activated and therefore the backup diesel generators are
turned ON and their power is set to contribute to the load demand
and to charge the batteries as much as possible (considering the
condition from Eq. (5)). Once the batteries have been charged to a
defined state of charge SOCbench , the diesel generators are turned
OFF.
3.3. Benchmark algorithm 2: Spinning-reserve-based (SRA)
The spinning reserve, SR ½W, is an important parameter for off-
grid systems as it helps to overcome unexpected scenarios where
extra power needs to be sent quickly to the load due to a sudden
increase on the load demand or a sudden decrease on the PV power
generation. Only the DGs and batteries can contribute to this
reserve (SRDG ½W and SRBAT ½W, respectively) [14]:
SRðtÞ ¼ SRDGðtÞ þ SRBATðtÞ : (10)
For the case of the DGs, only the ones that are ON can be
considered because extra time is required for DGs to be turned ON
and produce power. The extra power that DGs in ON state would be
able to supply, if necessary, is equal to the difference between their
nominal power (PDG;nominal ) and the power they are currently
generating (PDG ):
nDG 
X 
SRDGðtÞ ¼ PDG;nominalðjÞ  PDGðtÞ , uðj;tÞ : (11)
j¼1
For batteries, the extra power they can deliver to the AC grid is
defined as:
SRBATðtÞ ¼ Pd;max ,hBAT;inv  PdðtÞ : (12)
Now that the spinning reserve parameter has been defined, the
DG ON/OFF state and DG power stages will be described. With
respect to the former stage, the state of the DGs is controlled based
on the spinning reserve condition [14]:
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al.
SRðtÞ  PloadðtÞ ,εload;1 þ PPVðtÞ ,εPV;1
where εload;1 and εPV;1 are the load and PV related coefficients,
respectively. When the spinning reserve condition is not fulfilled,
an adequate number of diesel generators are turned ON until the
condition has been fulfilled.
The spinning reserve condition is checked every Dt. If at some
point of time some of the operating DGs can be disconnected while
still satisfying constraint (13) with a higher load coefficient (εload;2
instead of εload;1 ) and PV coefficient (εPV;2 instead of εPV;1 ),1 they
will be turned OFF as long as they have been operating for at least a
minimum time TONOFF , as it is not recommended for DGs to be
turned OFF shortly after they have been turned ON and vice versa.
The spinning reserve condition is used in real systems mostly to
decide the ON/OFF state of diesel generators, not to decide on their
power generation when different energy sources are present.
Therefore, the scheduling algorithm introduced in Section 3.1 will
also be applied here to enhance its performance.
4. Case study
The case study aims to consider representative profiles from off-
grid systems. In this work we have focused in the Southeast Asian
region (which has thousands of islands and off-grid installations).
We have therefore considered the load profile from a resort in this
region assuming a peak load of 800 kW as well as the irradiance
profile for a particular day in Singapore (latitude of 1.3026 ,
longitude of 103.7729 ) provided by the Solar Energy Research
Institute of Singapore. These profiles are presented in Fig. 3
together with the forecast obtained by applying the TBATS model.
In this approach the historical time series is used as an input to fit
the TBATS model for generating the irradiance and load forecasts.
The reason why the TBATS model is chosen is twofold. Firstly, both
load and irradiance time series data show strong seasonal patterns.
The TBATS model, which is one of the most popular time series
models capable of fitting seasonal patterns in data, is therefore
suitable. Secondly, in the preliminary analysis, the TBATS model is
found to be superior to its peers in terms of predictive performance.
The TBATS model is powered by multiple features, such as trigo-
nometric regressors, exponential smoothing state space models,
Box-Cox transformation, as well as trend and seasonal components.
The model fits data using an automated approach that minimizes
Akaike Information Criteria [31]. The reader is referred to [32] for
Fig. 3. Real and forecasted profiles for a) load and b) irradiance.
1
These coefficients are increased at this stage in an effort to avoid the spinning
reserve condition to be unfulfilled after a short time.
Energy 222 (2021) 119918
more details on the TBATS model.
(13) The analyzed PV hybrid system is composed of a PV system with
an installed capacity of 200 kWp, a battery system with a capacity S
of 1.5 MWh with maximum charging and discharging power (Pc;max
and Pd;max ) of 250 kW and discharging cost of 0.2 USD/kWh.
Furthermore, the maximum and minimum states of charge of the
batteries (SOCmax and SOCmin , respectively) are set to 95% and 20%.
The parameters SOCbsmin , SOCbsmax , and SOCbench are set to 40%,
75%, and 90%, respectively.
Two diesel generators with nominal power (PDG;nominal ) of
500 kW each are considered in this work. These generators have
diesel coefficients of aDG ¼ 0:246 l/kWh and bDG ¼ 0:084 l/kWh
with a diesel price set to 1 USD/l. The minimum ON/OFF time of the
diesel generators (TONOFF ) is set to 60 min.
With respect to the spinning reserve condition, the εload;1 and
εPV;1 coefficients are set to 0.20 and 0.25, respectively, while the
εload;2 and εPV;2 coefficients are set to 0.30 and 0.35, respectively.
The previous values were defined based on real experience
when dealing with PV hybrid systems and the authors’ previous
works [14,26].
In addition, the grid voltage (line to neutral) and frequency are
set to 230 V and 50 Hz, respectively. The grid quality is evaluated
based on the allowed ranges, i.e. frequency range between 49.5 and
50.5 Hz [33], voltage range between 0.95 and 1.05 p. u. [34], and
total harmonic distortion (THD) below 8% [35].
5. Results and discussion
This section presents the simulation results from the system
defined in Section 4, obtained from the real-time simulator
Typhoon HIL604. Fig. 4 shows the preliminary results from the
benchmark and proposed algorithms. With respect to the DG
backup approach, Fig. 4 a) shows that at the beginning (midnight)
the batteries are the only ones employed to satisfy the load demand
and therefore their SOC keeps on decreasing (see Fig. 4 b)) until
their minimum state of charge SOCmin (20%) is reached (0:56 AM).
Then, the two diesel generators (DG1 and DG2) which act as the
backup are turned on (uj;t ¼1) and start charging the batteries and
also fulfill the load demand. As a result, during the first hour, most
of the incurred cost comes from the batteries and only a minimum
comes from the DGs (see Fig. 4 c)). At this point, the diesel gener-
ators keep on charging the batteries until their SOC reaches
SOCbench (90%) at 5:25 AM, which is when the DGs are turned off
(uj;t ¼0). Because during this time the diesel generators are the only
ones providing power to the load, it can be seen in Fig. 4 c) that they
make up most of the costs. Once the diesel generators are turned
off, the batteries start to generate the required load power and the
operation cycle described in this paragraph will be repeated
throughout the day (if available, the solar panels will also inject
power to the grid). As this benchmark algorithm considers both
diesel generators to be the backups, the two will always be oper-
ating at the same time in order to be able to handle any unexpected
change in the load and PV power.
With respect to the SRA, it can be noted that at the beginning
(midnight) only one diesel generator is operating (see Fig. 4 e))
which, together with the batteries, is satisfying the load demand
(see Fig. 4 d)). Their respective costs are presented in Fig. 4 f). This
single diesel generator DG1 was operating since the very beginning
in order to fulfill the spinning reserve condition explained in Sec-
tion 3.3. During this time, the batteries keep on discharging until
they reach their SOCmin value at 1:54 AM, at which point the second
diesel generator is also activated to help charge the batteries. Once
the batteries reach the defined SOCbsmin value (40%) at 3:10 AM,
there is no need for the generators to keep on charging them and
5
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al. Energy 222 (2021) 119918

Fig. 4. Power profiles, DG ON/OF state, battery SOC, and hourly cost results obtained from the DG-backup-based approach; spinning-reserve-based approach, and forecast-based
approach.

therefore, DG2 can be turned off as DG1 and the batteries can still
satisfy the load demand and fulfill the SR constraint. This operation
cycle continues to repeat until 8:21 AM. Notice that until this time,
in comparison to the DGA, the SRA is able to reduce the effective
number of operating hours of the DGs (which brings a cost
advantage). After 8:21 AM, it can be seen that now the two DGs will
be operating till the end of the day. This behavior is because by 8:21
AM, the load has increased to a value in which the SR condition
cannot be satisfied by a single diesel generator and therefore, the
two of them need to be operating. The reason why neither of the
diesel generators is turned off towards the end of the day (where
the load demand is decreasing), is due to the fact that the required
SR condition with the updated coefficients (εload;2 and εPV;2 ) is not
able to be fulfilled if one of these generators is turned off.
Fig. 5. Cumulative cost for the analyzed case study obtained from the benchmark and
Finally, when analyzing the results from the proposed FBA al-
proposed algorithms.
gorithm (see Fig. 4g) and h) and i)), it can be noted that their
behavior is quite similar to the ones from the SRA. Nevertheless,
after 8:21 AM, it is not necessary for the two DGs to be continuously from this algorithm becomes the highest after a short time. It can
operating. The reason is that, based on the forecasting results, it is also be noted that the total costs incurred by SRA and FBA are
expected that a single diesel generator together with the batteries similar until 8:21 AM as the power profiles and the operation states
can satisfy the expected load demand and as such, DG2 will only be of their DGs are the same, as previously explained. However, after
activated when the batteries’ SOC reach their minimum and will be this point, the SRA approach turns ON the second DG and, although
disconnected when the SOCbsmin value is achieved. As a result, by the power profiles are still similar, the SRA approach starts to incur
taking into account the forecasted irradiance and load profiles, a higher cost than FBA. This is a consequence of the diesel con-
better decisions were taken which generated lower costs during sumption required to keep a DG ON (see Eq. (3)) even while
multiple operating hours, i.e. when comparing Fig. 4 f) and i), generating the same total power. For example, although the power
although both incur similar costs in the morning, the latter ach- required to be produced by the DGs is similar at 11:00 AM, there is
ieves, in general, lower hourly costs after 8 AM. only one operating DG when using the FBA approach (see Fig. 4 h))
Fig. 5 presents a closer view to the overall costs. It can be noticed while the two DGs are operating in the SRA approach (see Fig. 4 e)).
that, as the DGA approach employed only the batteries until 0:56 Therefore, the latter will consume extra diesel to keep the second
AM, while the other algorithms also operated their DG (see Fig. 4 b), DG in ON state. This shows the advantage of FBA in determining the
e), h)), the former produces the lowest cost until that point in time. ON/OFF state of DGs to reduce the diesel consumption and conse-
However, after 0:56 AM, the battery SOC for the DGA approach has quently the overall cost. For all the algorithms, batteries generated
reached its minimum, therefore, the two DGs start to operate. the lowest cost. In addition, the total cost at the end of the day was
Consequently, due to the high diesel consumption, the overall cost similar when using the benchmark algorithms (5967 USD for DGA

6
C.D. Rodríguez-Gallegos, L. Vinayagam, O. Gandhi et al.
Fig. 6. Simulated grid parameters, i.e. frequency, line-line voltage and their total harmonic distortion, from applying the benchmark and proposed algorithms in RTS.
and 5989 USD for SRA) while the minimum cost was achieved with
the proposed FBA (5678 USD), generating 5% savings.
With respect to the grid quality, Fig. 6 presents the grid fre-
quency, voltage, and the total voltage harmonic distortion,
observed for all the approaches. The safety ranges defined in Sec-
tion 4 have not been violated, giving more confidence to apply the
proposed algorithm in a real application.
While this work successfully showed that introducing fore-
casting approaches has the potential to enhance the scheduling
optimization of PV hybrid systems, it can be understood that its
applicability can be extended to other system configurations as
long as there are parameters that can be forecasted.
6. Conclusion
In this work, a scheduling optimization algorithm was proposed
to optimize the operation of off-grid systems composed of solar
panels, batteries and diesel generators. This algorithm incorporates
load and irradiance forecast to set the optimal power outputs of the
energy sources and to control their operation state, e.g. when to
turn ON/OFF the diesel generators. As benchmarks, two algorithms
which are typically used in real PV hybrid systems were consid-
ered: 1) the DG-backup-based algorithm which only employs the
DGs when the battery has achieved a minimum state of charge; and
2) the spinning-reserve-based algorithm which evaluates whether
there is enough spinning reserve to decide on the ON/OFF state of
the DGs. In an effort to validate the results generated, a real-time
simulator, i.e. Typhoon Hardware in Loop 604 - HIL604, was used
to run the applied optimization algorithms on a resort case study.
For the analyzed case study, the results revealed that the pro-
posed forecast-based algorithm is able to achieve the lowest cost,
yielding up to 5% cost savings. This outcome was produced because
the forecasting estimations were accurate enough to make good
decisions on the dispatch strategy and operation state of the energy
sources. In addition, the grid quality was evaluated for all the
7
Energy 222 (2021) 119918
analyzed optimization algorithms and the results showed that the
frequency, voltage, and total harmonic distortion were kept within
the allowed limits. This outcome suggests that the proposed algo-
rithm could be applied in a real system without seriously affecting
the grid quality.
Based on this work it can be concluded that the application of
forecasting approaches can be beneficial to optimize the perfor-
mance of PV hybrid systems. Nevertheless, special attention should
be paid to the forecasting accuracy as large forecasting errors could
reduce the system performance. Hence, more work is necessary to
further enhance the accuracy of the forecasting methods as well as
to perform this scheduling optimization for bigger systems
considering a larger time range to fully validate the effectiveness of
the proposed approach.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing
financial interests or personal relationships that could have
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgment
This work was supported by the Singapore’s National Research
Foundation Singapore within the research project “NRF2013EWT-
EIRP003-043”. SERIS is supported by the National University of
Singapore and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF)
through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
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