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L.M.

REPORTS
(a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

Market Outlook the next bull market. While the Lowry Analysis has
emphasized the weakness permeating the small- and mid-
The crisis in Ukraine has continued to cause high cap segments for months heading into the early January
volatility across the major price indexes, helping send the 2022 all-time highs in the DJIA and S&P 500 Index, only
DJIA, S&P 500 Index, and NASDAQ Composite lower for recently has it begun to spread into large-cap stocks.
a second consecutive month. In addition to geopolitical
uncertainty, inflation and rising interest rates weighed on Percentage of Stocks in Bear Markets
sentiment and stocks. However, as highlighted in these
reports, the market had already been displaying signs of Lowry gathers evidence of the spread of internal
diminished health for several months. market weakness by measuring the number of stocks
already in their own individual bear markets. A classic
For the month of February, the DJIA lost 3.5%, definition of a bear market for a stock or index is often
while the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite fell viewed as a decline of 20% or more from its high. For this
3.1% and 3.4%, respectively. Year-to-date (as of March 4, reason, Lowry created its own proprietary measure to
2022), the DJIA had fallen 7.49%, while the S&P 500 Index identify the percentage of our Operating Companies Only
declined 9.18%. In addition, it was the worst start to a year (OCO) universe down 20% or more to monitor how many
for the DJIA and S&P 500 Index since 2020. The stocks are in bear markets. To go a step further, Lowry also
NASDAQ Composite, down 15.21% since the beginning of broke down the OCO universe into small-, mid-, and large-
the year, recorded its worst January and February since cap stocks and measures the percentage down 20% or more
2009. from each of those segments. This segmented look allows
for an advanced examination of the deterioration in small-
Despite these declines, based on the Lowry cap stocks, which eventually finds its way into mid- and
Analysis, stocks do not appear to have reached a sustainable large-cap stocks.
low yet. From the current position, either the market
continues to weaken until evidence of a bottom is apparent
via a selling climax, followed by strong Demand
(rejuvenated buying) or it strengthens enough to repair the
months of deterioration highlighted in past reports. While
it is too early to tell, the former scenario is most likely.
Whichever course prevails will take additional time, and
therefore patience, to endure. For now, investors are
advised to remain defensive with heavier cash allocations
as the greater risk still likely lies to the downside on an
intermediate-term basis.

Bull Markets Wear Out Over Time

It is critical to review how a market transitions


from a bull market to a bear market. This process is a slow
grind that often goes undetected by those investors
focusing solely on the major price indexes. It begins with
vulnerable small caps when investors start selling the
speculative and highest risk stocks in their portfolios. The
weakness spreads into mid caps and eventually finds its
way into large-cap stocks. While this interior erosion is A current snapshot of Lowry’s Segmented Percent
occurring, the major market indexes continue to advance of OCO Stocks 20% or More Below 52-Week Highs
because investors are crowding into a handful of large-cap displays the significant deterioration in small-cap stocks
stocks that keep the major averages at or near new highs. since mid-March 2021. As of March 4, 2022, Lowry’s
Eventually, when the selling hits those large-cap stocks, the Percent of OCO Small-Caps 20% or More Below 52-Week
bear market begins in earnest. But for many investors, by Highs is elevated at 51.75%, indicating more than half of
that time it is too late. Most stocks in their portfolios have small caps are in bear markets. Even as the DJIA and S&P
declined substantially with little hope of rebounding until 500 Index made their most recent all-time highs in early

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L.M. REPORTS
(a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

January, evidence of a market deteriorating was evident as Analyzing the market from the pandemic lows in
nearly 40% of small caps were in proverbial bear market March 2020, Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index has been
territory on January 3, 2022. This provided reason why the steadily rising since December 2020, while the DJIA and
Lowry Analysis mentioned culling the weakest stocks in S&P 500 Index rallied throughout 2021 before making their
portfolios and rotating the proceeds into large caps last most recent all-time highs in early January 2022. The
year. Buying Power Index was also steadily declining since
February 2021 as the major price indexes continued to rise.
As for the other segments, Lowry’s Percent of In fact, Lowry’s measures of Supply and Demand
OCO Mid-Caps 20% or More Below 52-Week Highs has intensified (negatively) since October 2021, and
been deteriorating since November 5, 2021, when it held a reconfirmed the intermediate trend sell signal (Selling
reading of 10.58% vs. its most recent high of 37.18% on Control No. 2) registered on January 18, 2022.
February 23, 2022. Furthermore, Lowry’s Percent of OCO
Large-Caps 20% or More Below 52-Week Highs has begun Signs to Monitor for a Market Bottom
to surge since February 9, 2022, when it was at only 7.18%
vs. its most recent high of 25.13%, as of February 23, 2022. Following large selloffs, whether it be a correction
For large caps, this was the highest percentage since the or full bear market, investor sentiment is often marked by
post-pandemic recovery in October 2020. Stated another despair. This is when we frequently see the exhaustion of
way, one quarter of OCO large-cap stocks found their way Supply as investors throw in the towel. Following days of
into bear market territory in late February, making the heavy selling, the capitulation, or final washout, can appear
market less resistant to downdrafts. This development is as one or more 90% Downside Days, where 90% of points
also important considering the nature of how bull markets and volume take place to the downside. Ideally, longer-term
end, as previously discussed. indicators, such as the Percent of NYSE Stocks Above 10-
and 30-WMAs, after months of deterioration, have also
Unfavorable Trends in Supply & Demand reached oversold levels. In addition, Lowry’s Short Term
Index should at least reach a semi-oversold level of 66.
Another important sign of market health is found
through analyzing the behavior of Buyers and Sellers It would then become critical to see a surge in
independent of each other. Lowry uses its proprietary Demand in the form of a 90% Upside Day, or two
indicators, the Buying Power and Selling Pressure Indexes, consecutive 80% Upside Days, followed quickly by the
to measure what Buyers and Sellers are doing. Healthy registration of a conventional short-term buy signal (a 6-
market advances are rarely sustained unless Demand point gain in the Short Term Index.
(Buying Power Index) is increasing. Conversely, markets
that are advancing while Supply is increasing (Selling Conclusion
Pressure is rising) are particularly vulnerable to declines.
With numerous multi-month negative
trends in Lowry’s core gauges of market health,
along with an intermediate trend sell signal firmly
in place, there is presently little reason to deviate
from a defensive investment stance with heavier
cash balances. The Lowry Analysis will continue
to monitor changes in the weight of evidence until
probabilities of a sustainable new market advance
rise enough to favor adding equity exposure.

Note: The next report will be published on


April 5.

*If you are interested in receiving weekly or


daily updates, please do not hesitate to email us
at lowrysupport@cfraresearch.com for other
subscription options.

L.M. Reports, a CFRA Business. All rights reserved. © 2022 Page 2


L.M. REPORTS (a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

Focus on Charts
Market breadth has a substantial hill to climb if
downtrends are to be reversed. Because Lowry’s
Operating Companies (OCO) Adv-Dec Line
reached a record high on January 4, 2022,
reasserting a sustainable advance would mean a
new all-time high. This is a considerable feat
given the breadth indicator is below its 150-day
moving average (DMA) and has been falling
from mid-January. Since the NYSE all-issues
Adv-Dec Line displayed a negative divergence
into the market’s early January 2022 high, it
would need to exceed its November 8, 2021 all-
time high to reaffirm the bull market. It too has
dwelled below its 150-DMA for nearly two
months. The cumulative calculations of these
breadth indicators require consistently elevated
daily advancing issues to close the distance to
new highs. This will take time.

Lowry’s Average Power Rating (APR) Index


provides the average Power Rating of the more
than 3,550 issues in our database. This gauge of
both market breadth and Demand intensity has
similarly illustrated symptoms of a
significantly weakened bull market for months.
To provide firm evidence of a likely
rejuvenated bull market, the APR Index would
need to overcome its January 6, 2022 and
November 11, 2021 readings of 56 and 61,
respectively. Based on the current reading of 48
(as of March 3, 2022), the APR Index would
need a significant rise moving forward.

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L.M. REPORTS (a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

ETF Report
Established Leaders: This list reflects the ETFs that demonstrate the strongest pattern of sustained strength. These ETFs
have the highest Power Rating Relative Strength and remain in an intermediate uptrend. Investors should use caution as
market conditions can change, and past strength does not guarantee strong future performance.

Ticker Name Yield Price Velocity Power PR PR Trend PR


(Mar 4) Rating 20 150 Rating Relative
GSG iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index 0.0% $24.26 16 99 DMA
97 DMA
86 3 Strength
49
DBO Invesco DB Oil Fund 0.0% $18.06 17 99 97 86 3 49
USO United States Oil Fund 0.0% $79.46 20 98 96 90 3 48
BNO United States Brent Oil Fund ETF 0.0% $32.77 21 98 96 90 3 48
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking 0.0% $27.01 13 99 96 84 3 48
FCG First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas 1.3% $23.35 19 98 96 81 3 48
KSA iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF 1.4% $46.71 11 98 96 91 3 48
FENY Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF 2.7% $20.47 17 99 95 73 3 47
FTXN First Trust NASDAQ Oil&Gas ETF 0.8% $25.47 18 99 96 86 3 48
XME SPDR Metals & Mining 0.5% $59.11 17 99 96 80 3 48

Rising Stars: This list reflects the ETFs that demonstrate the strongest pattern of improved strength. These ETFs have the
highest Power Rating Momentum. Investors should use caution as market conditions can change and past strength does not
guarantee strong future performance.

Ticker Name Yield Price Velocity Power PR 20 PR 150 Trend PR


(Mar 4) Rating DMA DMA Rating Momentum
WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF 0.0% $10.83 14 80 56 38 2 32
EWZ iShares MSCI-Brazil ETF 8.1% $34.29 18 77 61 48 2 28
SIVR ETFS Silver Trust 0.0% $24.66 11 77 62 51 2 24
SLV iShares Silver Trust 0.0% $23.64 11 82 67 60 3 24
UNG United States Natural Gas Fund 0.0% $17.34 27 80 69 68 3 23
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF 4.6% $106.22 6 72 62 69 3 20
GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF 1.4% $37.40 12 59 49 37 2 17
PSCE Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF 0.3% $9.36 18 60 48 45 2 17
VTIP Vanguard Short Term Inflation Prote 4.6% $51.83 6 72 65 69 -2 16
SCHP Schwab U.S. TIPS ETF 4.8% $62.35 6 82 73 81 -2 16

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L.M. REPORTS (a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

Stock Report
Established Leaders: This list reflects large cap stocks that demonstrate the strongest pattern of sustained strength. These
stocks have the highest Power Rating Relative Strength. Investors should use caution as market conditions can change and
past strength does not guarantee strong future performance.
Ticker Name Industry Yield Price Vel Power PR 20 PR 150 Trend PR Relative
(Mar 4) Rating DMA DMA Rating Strength
GD Gen Dynamics Aerospace 2.1% $245.29 10 99 97 92 3 49
MOS* Mosaic Co Chem-Basic 0.8% $59.83 22 99 97 80 3 49
ADM Archer Daniels Food 1.9% $82.80 14 98 97 72 3 49
PXD* Pioneer Natural Oil & Gas Prod 1.3% $241.16 19 98 96 74 3 48
HSY* Hershey Co Food 1.7% $212.82 9 99 96 93 3 48
ABBV AbbVie Inc Pharmaceuticals 3.7% $150.56 14 98 96 91 3 48
COP ConocoPhillips Oil & Gas Prod 1.8% $100.27 20 98 96 72 3 48
MO Altria Group Alcohol&Tobacc 6.7% $53.49 12 99 95 86 3 47
CVX Chevron Corp Oil Ref & Mktg 3.6% $158.65 14 99 95 81 3 47
BKR Baker Hughes Oil Services 2.2% $33.22 15 95 95 87 3 47
MTB* M&T Bank Banks-Super Reg 2.7% $176.22 14 95 95 84 3 47
KO Coca-Cola Co Food 2.8% $62.57 9 94 95 91 3 47
EXC* Exelon Corp Utilities-Elec 3.0% $44.28 10 98 94 90 -1 46
MRO* Marathon Oil Oil & Gas Prod 0.9% $23.81 26 98 94 72 3 46
CNP Centerpoint Energy Utilities-Elec 2.3% $28.99 8 98 94 88 3 46
FANG Diamondback Oil & Gas Prod 1.7% $137.80 20 91 94 84 3 46
RHI* Robert Half Business Srvcs 1.5% $117.02 12 95 94 89 3 46
RE Everest Re Grp Insurance-Prop 2.2% $282.41 9 85 94 89 3 46
UNP Union Pac Corp Transportation 1.8% $264.63 10 98 93 87 3 45
NI Nisource Inc Utilities-Gas 3.1% $30.48 10 96 93 79 3 45
ABC* Amerisource Health Prov/Ser 1.2% $147.30 11 94 93 88 3 45
SRE* Sempra Energy Utilities-Gas 3.0% $151.92 9 99 92 67 3 44
OKE* Oneok Inc Oil & Gas Prod 5.5% $68.42 11 99 92 77 3 44
CF* CF Industries Chem-Basic 1.3% $91.25 21 99 92 81 3 44
NOC* Northrop Grumman Aerospace 1.3% $468.57 14 95 92 74 3 44
*Indicates New Stock added to the List this Month

Rising Stars: This list reflects the large cap stocks that demonstrate the strongest pattern of improved strength. These
stocks have the highest Power Rating Momentum. Investors should use caution as market conditions can change and past
strength does not guarantee strong future performance.
Ticker Name Industry Yield Price Velocity Power PR 20 PR 150 Trend PR
(Mar 4) Rating DMA DMA Rating Momentum
CHRW C H Robinson Transportation 2.1% $106.48 17 95 77 85 2 27
FCX Freeport McMoran Metals Non-Fer 0.6% $50.11 19 79 57 50 2 24
KHC Kraft Heinz Co Food 4.0% $39.84 13 73 63 56 3 21
NEM Newmont Corp Metals-Rare 3.0% $74.28 12 71 58 41 2 20
COO Cooper Companies Health Suppl/Eq 0.0% $424.54 11 80 63 78 2 20
EIX Edison Intl Utilities-Elec 4.3% $65.59 12 75 58 59 -2 17
IRM Iron Mtn Inc REITs 4.7% $52.14 16 77 60 80 2 17
ORLY Oreilly Retail-Misc 0.0% $674.09 10 93 83 70 3 17
ATO Atmos Energy Co Utilities-Gas 2.3% $116.15 10 97 82 73 3 17
APA Apache Corp Oil & Gas Prod 1.3% $39.48 27 97 85 65 3 17

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L.M. REPORTS (a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

Stock Report
High Power Rating / Low P/E Ratio: The issues with the lowest P/E Ratios in our primary universe are ranked according
to a weighting method which favors stocks that have maintained consistently high Power Ratings over the past 4 weeks. The
strongest issues from this list are shown below. The integrity of earnings projections should be independently verified when
using this list. A low 4-week PR suggests that most investors question the company's ability to sustain positive
earnings. Low P/E Ratio stocks can be particularly vulnerable during the late stages of an extended market advance and
during periods of economic downturn.

Ticker Name Industry Yield Price Velocity Power PR 20 PR 150 Trend PR Relative
(Mar 4) Rating DMA DMA Rating Strength
BG Bunge Limited Food 1.9% $ 108.32 14 98 96 88 3 48
EQT* EQT Corporation Oil & Gas Prod 0.0% $ 26.36 16 98 84 59 3 36
SJT San Juan Basin Oil & Gas Prod 11.3% $ 7.51 26 97 81 81 3 33
MATX* Matson Inc Transportation 1.1% $ 107.02 16 94 80 84 3 32
NUE* Nucor Corp Metals-Steel 1.4% $ 138.72 20 94 83 78 3 35
RIO* Rio Tinto Metals Non-Fer 9.7% $ 81.88 16 92 86 68 3 38
RDN Radian Group Insurance-Prop 3.4% $ 23.87 14 92 94 88 3 46
MPC* Marathon Petrol Oil Ref & Mktg 3.0% $ 77.73 16 91 88 86 3 40
ET* Energy Transfer Oil & Gas Prod 6.7% $ 10.43 18 88 85 71 3 37
UNM* UNUM Group Insurance-Life 4.4% $ 27.52 15 87 89 81 3 41
STLD* Steel Dynamics Metals-Steel 1.8% $ 77.38 19 86 59 64 3 11
MTG* MGIC Investment Insurance-Prop 2.2% $ 14.62 13 86 92 88 3 44
X* U S Steel Metals-Steel 0.6% $ 31.42 28 85 65 68 3 17
ORI Old Republ Intl Insurance-Prop 3.5% $ 26.40 10 85 89 79 3 41
ALE* Allete Inc Utilities-Elec 4.0% $ 64.91 11 84 75 68 -1 27
*Indicates New Stock added to the List this Month

Strongest High Yield Stocks: The highest yielding stocks are first selected from our primary universe. From that list, the
stocks showing the greatest and the most consistent Power Rating Relative Strength are segregated and shown below. The
stocks are ranked by a weighting method that favors stocks that have maintained consistently high Power Ratings over the
past 4 weeks.

Ticker Name Industry Yield Price Velocity Power PR 20 PR 150 Trend PR Relative
(Mar 4) Rating DMA DMA Rating Strength
MO* Altria Group Alcohol&Tobacco 6.7% $ 53.49 12 99 95 86 3 47
BCE* BCE Inc Communications 5.2% $ 55.91 6 99 95 91 3 47
OKE* Oneok Inc Oil & Gas Prod 5.5% $ 68.42 11 99 92 77 3 44
TRP* TC Energy Corp Oil & Gas Prod 5.0% $ 56.39 15 99 94 80 3 46
PBR* Petro Brasi Oil Ref & Mktg 13.6% $ 14.51 22 98 95 83 3 47
SJT* San Juan Basin Oil & Gas Prod 11.3% $ 7.51 26 97 81 81 3 33
XOM Exxon Mobil Oil Ref & Mktg 4.2% $ 84.09 19 97 90 75 3 42
CQP Cheniere Energy Oil & Gas Prod 4.6% $ 58.47 16 96 93 81 3 45
ENB Enbridge Inc Oil & Gas Prod 6.1% $ 44.75 13 96 85 83 3 37
BHP* BHP Group Ltd Metals Non-Fer 9.6% $ 73.12 17 95 86 69 3 38
MPLX MPLX Oil & Gas Prod 8.7% $ 32.49 13 95 93 90 3 45
EPD* Enterprise Prod Oil & Gas Prod 7.3% $ 25.43 13 95 88 81 3 40
GEL* Genesis Energy Oil & Gas Prod 4.9% $ 12.25 21 95 93 80 3 45
SLG* SL Green Realty REITs 4.7% $ 78.98 15 95 92 72 3 44
PTR* Petrochina Oil Ref & Mktg 5.4% $ 55.84 17 94 83 74 3 35
*Indicates New Stock added to the List this Month

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L.M. REPORTS (a CFRA Business) March 8, 2022

Monthly Statistics

Short
Buying Selling Term Adv Up Vol Up Pts Net New New Dow Jones Ind S&P 500
Power Press. Index ADV DEC Perc Perc Perc Net Adv Volume Net Points Highs Lows Avg Index
7-Feb 152 193 70 727 571 56.0 56.1 49.8 156 337.83 -5 39 27 35,091.13 4,483.87
8-Feb 156 188 72 989 318 75.7 62.7 85.5 671 745.89 1331 50 10 35,462.78 4,521.54
9-Feb 160 184 77 1046 255 80.4 82.6 91.3 791 1855.43 1894 55 12 35,768.06 4,587.18
10-Feb 157 188 80 252 1059 19.2 24.8 8.2 -807 -1711.49 -1907 21 24 35,241.59 4,504.08
11-Feb 156 191 77 433 869 33.3 34.9 20.7 -436 -1035.78 -1315 52 43 34,738.06 4,418.64
14-Feb 151 197 75 401 912 30.5 25.7 19.4 -511 -1468.76 -795 9 37 34,566.17 4,401.67
15-Feb 156 194 79 1093 218 83.4 79.0 89.8 875 1593.87 1878 26 6 34,988.84 4,471.07
16-Feb 158 192 79 786 523 60.0 51.5 54.0 263 82.48 119 39 17 34,934.27 4,475.01
17-Feb 155 196 76 246 1068 18.7 25.3 6.8 -822 -1493.85 -2369 14 56 34,312.03 4,380.26
18-Feb 155 196 73 431 875 33.0 29.7 26.5 -444 -1261.57 -594 13 62 34,079.18 4,348.87
22-Feb 151 200 69 251 1057 19.2 16.0 10.1 -806 -2293.72 -1555 8 105 33,596.61 4,304.76
23-Feb 151 201 69 262 1039 20.1 25.4 7.7 -777 -1505.54 -2047 9 149 33,131.76 4,225.50
24-Feb 157 196 71 835 477 63.6 55.0 81.8 358 428.57 1701 13 35 33,223.83 4,288.70
25-Feb 161 191 77 1174 138 89.5 85.2 95.1 1036 2359.94 2791 51 13 34,058.75 4,384.65
28-Feb 163 189 79 571 737 43.7 48.0 49.2 -166 -164.55 -31 66 21 33,892.60 4,373.94
1-Mar 162 191 75 339 971 25.9 36.3 16.9 -632 -1065.17 -1653 54 77 33,294.95 4,306.26
2-Mar 167 187 78 1158 153 88.3 86.0 94.8 1005 2527.54 2481 102 7 33,891.35 4,386.54
3-Mar 164 189 80 571 731 43.9 42.0 30.6 -160 -518.06 -701 84 41 33,794.66 4,363.49
4-Mar 161 194 80 481 826 36.8 44.7 32.6 -345 -383.05 -859 126 99 33,614.80 4,328.87
(There were no 90% Upside or Downside Days in February according to OCO data)

Lowry Research Corporation, A CFRA Business

Michael Zuber, CMT Vincent Randazzo, CMT


Market Analyst Head of Technical Research

Michael Kahn, CMT


Senior Market Analyst

Copyright warning and notice: It is a violation of federal copyright law to reproduce all or part of this publication or its contents by any means. The Copyright Act
imposes liability of up to $150,000 per issue for such infringement. Information concerning illicit duplication will be gratefully received. Lowry Rese arch Corporation,
a CFRA Business, does not license or authorize reproduction by subscribers or anyone else without specific writte n permission. Past performance is no guarantee of
future Results. Copyright 2022, Lowry Research Corporation, a CFRA Business. All rights reserved.

L.M. Reports, a CFRA Business. Page 7

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