Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

ISSN: 1947-5705 (Print) 1947-5713 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tgnh20

Glacial lake outburst flood hazards in Hindukush,

Karakoram and Himalayan Ranges of Pakistan:
implications and risk analysis

Arshad Ashraf , Rozina Naz & Rakhshan Roohi

To cite this article: Arshad Ashraf , Rozina Naz & Rakhshan Roohi (2012) Glacial lake
outburst flood hazards in Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan Ranges of Pakistan:
implications and risk analysis, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 3:2, 113-132, DOI:
10.1080/19475705.2011.615344

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2011.615344

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Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
Vol. 3, No. 2, May 2012, 113–132

Glacial lake outburst flood hazards in Hindukush, Karakoram and

Himalayan Ranges of Pakistan: implications and risk analysis

ARSHAD ASHRAF*, ROZINA NAZ and RAKHSHAN ROOHI

National Agricultural Research Centre, Park Road, Islamabad, Pakistan

(Received 12 July 2001; in final form 15 August 2011)

One of the spectacular effects of recent atmospheric warming in the Himalayan

region has been the creation of meltwater lakes on the lower sections of many
glaciers. Climate change is likely to exacerbate further some of these natural
hazards such as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can cause major
social and economic damage for large populations living in the Himalayan region.
Thirty-five destructive outburst floods have been recorded for the Karakoram
Range in the past 200 years. Systematic application of remote sensing and
geographic information systems (GIS) has revealed the formation of about 2420
glacial lakes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) Region of Pakistan,
among which 52 lakes are characterized as potentially dangerous GLOF hazards.
About 62% of the GLOF lakes belong to End Moraine Dammed type and
25% to Cirque type. Due to poor livelihood conditions, lack of resources and
proper management within the system the local communities have a problem
in taking effective response measures for risk reduction or mitigation. There is
a need to create awareness of flood hazard, coordination and capacity buildings
for preparedness and risk reduction among target communities. High resolu-
tion satellite data integrated with ground information can be utilized effectively
for regular monitoring of these lakes in order to mitigate flood risk hazard in
future.

1. Introduction
Global climate change has influenced the snow and glaciated environment of the
Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan, which contributes
more than 50% of the total flow of the Indus River system. As a result of this
situation the frequency of glacial hazards has increased in this part of the Himalayan
region. Sudden breach of the unstable moraine ‘dams’ results in discharges of huge
amounts of water and debris – known as glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs ) – that
often have catastrophic effects downstream. Even the small glacial lake associated
with hanging glaciers poses a high potential for breaching resulting in a GLOF. At
least 20 GLOF events recorded in the Himalayan region in the last seven decades
resulted in heavy loss of human lives and their property, destruction of infrastructure
as well as damage to agricultural land and forests. In the past 50 years, the general

*Corresponding author. Email: mashr22@yahoo.com

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
ISSN 1947-5705 Print/ISSN 1947-5713 Online ª 2012 Taylor & Francis
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2011.615344
114 A. Ashraf et al.
glacier recession in the area is considered to be linked to the general climatic change
experienced here, as in many mountain areas in the world. The climatic changes
indicate the possibility of glacial advance/retreat, which may be a precursor of an era
of renewed dam burst floods. Flood risks are dominated by monsoonal storm
conditions in summer. However, the larger part of summer high flows on the Indus
system are due to snow and ice melting. During certain periods in the past, for
example, the 1920s and 1930s, glacier dams and dam burst floods in the Indus system
were a major and recurrent risk. There are indications that the return of such
problems can be anticipated. Knowledge of glaciers and glacial lake activity is
required not only for planning for water resources but also for management of flood
hazards such as GLOFs downstream. Unfortunately, understanding of the
mountainous headwater of the Indus, and especially of snow and ice conditions is
extremely poor.
The geomorphologists of the International Karakoram Project surveyed the
Hunza valley between Gilgit and Gulmit along the Karakoram Highway in 1980 and
identified traces of 339 disastrous incidents, including a wide range of short-lived
mass movements as well as earthquake-related destruction (Goudie 1981, Miller
1984). Among these hazards, the destructive ones are related to the movement of
glaciers when glacier advance/retreat led to outburst floods of ice-dammed lakes,
damaging and burying cultivated lands, irrigation systems and infrastructure
downstream. The importance of this situation has magnified over the past century
due to the increased number of glacial lakes. The lakes are formed on the glacier
terminus due to the recent retreating processes of glaciers (Meyer et al. 1993).
Monitoring of glacier resource can be much facilitated by the effective use of
satellite remote sensing technology. The technology is found to be one of the best
tools for identifying such glacial lakes and offers strong advantages for rapid and
qualitative hazard assessments of glacier lakes (Raj 2010). There is no doubt that
people and property at considerable distances downstream from the unstable lakes
are facing a serious threat to their existence. This situation, together with the
realization that the risk of damage and loss of life may continue to increase in the
near future, demands indepth study of the situation of GLOF hazard and response
analysis in the target Himalayan area.
It is quite alarming that five GLOF events had occurred in the Hunza basin of
the Karakoram Range during 2007 and 2008, which severely affected the nearby
communities and posed a threat for the future. The situation demands better hazard
assessment, risk reduction, mitigation of GLOF hazard and adoption of a suitable
early warning system. This paper describes a stepwise approach to the assessment of
risk, beginning with an extensive desk study of satellite images that provided the first
reconnaissance mapping of more than 2400 glacial lakes. The study attempts to
describe the existing situation of glacial lakes and lakes susceptible to creating
GLOF hazards in the HKH Region of Pakistan. Also the implications of recent
GLOF events occurring during 2007 and 2008, communities’ response and risk
mitigation measures in order to provide a basis for strategy development for future
risk management are described.

1.1 Physiography of HKH Region

Of the physical formations present in the country, the three marvellous mountain
ranges in the north, namely Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindukush, are spectacular
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 115
in their own way. They stretch like a bow in the north of Pakistan extending into
India, China, Nepal and Bhutan with a total length of about 2500 km. Rapid uplift
of the Himalayas to great heights and under the influence of a very cold climate
with high altitude, the mountains embraced a blanket of snow and ice during the
Quaternary period (Kazmi and Jan 1997). High mountains contain towering snow-
clad peaks with heights varying from 1000 to over 8000 metres above mean sea level
(masl). The westernmost part of the High Himalayas within Pakistan is comprised of
the Nanga Parbat Range. Most of the glaciers are alpine type in which maximum
ablation and snowfall occurs in the summer half year. The glacial ice is of cold
metamorphic type with only the lower reaches being isothermal and showing
behaviour characteristic of temperate glaciers.
The Karakoram Range comprises some of the highest peaks, large glaciers,
deepest gorges and canyons of this region. It is the largest store of moisture in
Central Asia and the single most concentrated source of runoff for the whole Upper
Indus Basin. From here comes the larger part of the Indus flow at Tarbela dam. The
word ‘Karakoram’ comes from the Turkish term meaning ‘black rock’. The range
covers 500 km from the easternmost extension of Afghanistan towards South Asia.
The mountains are covered with glaciers that are the longest in this region. This
splendid and magnificent collection of dark brown and black metamorphic rocks is
the most unique mountain range. A combination of high ablation rates in the lower
reaches (e.g. annual ablation on bare ice of 1841 mm per year for the snout of the
Batura glacier was recorded during an ablation season of 315 days) and high
snowfall and avalanching induces high values of mass flux, so that they can be
classified as high active glaciers (Khan 1994). The snow line in this range varies from
4200 to 4500 m during summer. The temperatures are extreme and there is a large
difference between the lowest and highest temperatures during a day. Monsoons do
not penetrate in this area. The valleys around Gilgit and Hunza are amongst the
driest areas of Central Asia. The precipitation enhancing and shadowing effects of
the main mountain ranges provide dramatic contrasts that greatly complicate the
hydrological picture.
The Hindukush Range runs from the western edge of the Pamir Plateau, west of
the Karakoram. It forms the boundary between Pakistan, Afghanistan and China.
Like the other two chains, they also have snow-covered mountains and are crossed
by a number of glaciers that are not as well developed as those of the other chains.
The highest peaks are Noshak (7369 m) and Tirich Mir (7690 m). The Chitral,
Kunar, Punjkora and Swat rivers drain the mountain range. The extent of the three
mountain ranges and river basins in Northern Pakistan is shown in figure 1.
There are two distinct rainy periods, one in summer and one in winter. The
monsoon rainfall is extensive in the period from July to September. The winter is
dominated by the westerly fronts originating from the Mediterranean region or from
the area of the Caspian Sea during the winter and spring seasons (Roohi et al. 2005).
In the winter however, under the prevailing influence of the Tibetan anticyclone,
local conditions are dominant (Archer 2001). The high mountain region i.e. between
358 and 378 N is mostly dominated by winter rains, whereas the sub mountainous
region i.e. between 31.58 and 358 N is dominated by summer rains. The winter snow,
glaciers and snowfields start melting from April and continue until July when the
monsoon sets in. The precipitation enhancing and shadowing effects of the main
mountain range provide dramatic contrasts that greatly complicate the hydrological
picture.
116 A. Ashraf et al.

Figure 1. Location of study area indicating 10 river basins in the Hindukush-Karakoram-

Himalaya (HKH) Region of Pakistan. Available in colour online.

1.2 Catastrophic floods

Thirty-five destructive outburst floods have been recorded for the Karakoram Range
in the past 200 years (Khan 1994). Thirty glaciers are known to have advanced
across major head water streams of the Indus and Yarkand Rivers. Some ice dams
may have been the result of glacier surges. A surge is commonly accompanied by
increased water, sediment and discharge, and is extremely hazardous to settlements,
or installations in the path. At least 11 surges of exceptional scale have been recorded
so far in the Upper Indus Basin.
There is unambiguous evidence of large reservoirs ponded by 18 glaciers.
Meanwhile, a further 37 glaciers interfered with the flow of trunk streams in a
potentially dangerous way. There is geological evidence of other dams and numerous
reports of glaciers across the main river channels, which they were not actually
damming. During the late Pleistocene and little Ice Age, large-scale damming was
more extensive than recently (Khan 1994). Indications of climatic changes likely to
result in glacier advance, especially if applicable to the Karakoram Range, may
herald an era of renewed dam burst floods.
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 117
Glacier survey activity in the upper Shyok river basin in the late 1920s led to the
discovery and monitoring of a large ice dam across the upper Shyok River. This was
formed by the advance of the Chung Khumdan glacier, a tributary of the Shyok. The
filling of the reservoir, the timing and magnitude of the resulting outburst floods in
1929 and 1932 and the movement of the flood waves down valley were well
documented by Gunn (1930). Similarly in 1884 an ice dam burst in the Shimshal
valley, a northern tributary of the Hunza River and led to a 3 m rise in the river level
causing considerable devastation at Ganesh and Baltit. This was followed by a
similar event in 1893 and then again in 1905. The latter sent a 9 m flood wave down
the Hunza, causing landslips. In the following year the Shimshal caused an even
bigger flood than that of 1905, raising the Hunza River by over 15 m above its
normal summer flood level at Chalt. A lake formed again in the Shimshal valley and
water began to flow over the top of the ice dam on 28 May and breached on 10 June.
Generally detailed information on the specific GLOF events is limited and the
monetary losses and death toll of the floods has been reported by various sources
and sometimes there is no agreement among these figures.
There have occurred numerous GLOF events in Hunza River basin of Karakoram
Range probably due to climate change in recent years. Serious effects are generated
by the formation of these lakes and they pose a great threat downstream in the
valleys. The high sliding velocities and isothermal ice produces abundant englacial
and subglacial meltwater, which leaves the glacier by sub-glacial tunnels. The
positions of these exits migrate due to thermal erosion, ice-collapse and sub-glacial
debris removal resulting in the shift of proglacial streams (Khan 1994). Five GLOF
events have been reported on Ghulkin and Passu glaciers in 2008 and a similar
event on Passu glacier in 2007 that resulted in loss of valuable lives and property
downstream.

2. Material and methods

In the present study 11 Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETMþ) images
for the 2000–2001 period were used for the delineation of glacial lakes and supported
by limited ground truth verification and other ancillary datasets, identification of
potentially dangerous lakes was carried out for the HKH region. Details of the
Landsat images used are shown in table 1. The database generation and spatial
analysis was performed in ILWIS 3.2 software using the Transverse Mercator
projection system. The Landsat-7 ETMþ sensor is a nadir-viewing, seven-band plus
multi-spectral scanning radiometer that detects spectrally filtered radiation from
several portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Nominal ground sample distances
or pixel sizes include 15 m for the panchromatic band, 30 m each for the six visible,
near-infrared, and short-wave infrared bands and 60 m for the thermal infrared
band. The digital topographic map of ARC Digitized Raster Graphics (ADRG)
published in January 1996 by the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA)
and Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) of the US Government at a scale of 1:500 000,
along with topographic maps of Survey of Pakistan, available at 1:25 000 scale, were
also used. The methodology for mapping lakes is based on that developed by the
Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, the Water and Energy
Commission Secretariat, and the Nepal Electricity Authority (LIGG/WECS/NEA
1988, Mool et al. 2001). Mapping has been systematically carried out for 10 major
river basins of the northern glaciated area of Pakistan (figure 1). The basins
118 A. Ashraf et al.
Table 1. Details of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETMþ) scenes
(2000–2001).
Serial no. Path Row Bands Spatial resolution Date

1 148 035 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 21 July 2001

2 148 036 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 18 May 2001
3 149 034 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 30 September 2001
4 149 035 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 30 September 2001
5 149 036 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 30 September 2001
6 150 034 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 7 October 2001
7 150 035 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 7 October 2001
8 150 036 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 7 October 2001
9 151 034 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 28 September 2001
10 151 035 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 9 September 2000
11 151 036 7 plus 15 m, 30 m, 60 m 28 September 2001

clockwise from the west are Swat, Chitral, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok, Indus,
Shingo, Astore and Jhelum. The lakes are classified into Erosion, Valley trough,
Cirque, Blocked, Moraine Dammed (Lateral Moraine and End Moraine Dammed
lakes), and Supraglacial types.
Clear water absorbs relatively little energy with wavelengths of less than about
0.6 mm. High transmittance typifies these wavelengths with a maximum in the blue-
green portion of the spectrum. However, as the turbidity of water changes (because
of the presence of organic or inorganic materials), transmittance, and therefore
reflectance, changes dramatically (Mool et al. 2001). Glacial lakes can be identified
clearly in the band combinations of Pan, 7, 6b and 5, 4, 2 (Red, Green, Blue) due to
their distinct true colour and contrast with the surrounding features. In the winter
season image the glacial lakes can be identified on the basis of their smooth texture
and varying grey tone due to their semi-frozen ice surface. In the false colour
composite of 5, 4, 3 (RGB), the water bodies, like lakes in blue colour, can be
differentiated from the shadow areas appearing black in this band combination.
Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with a remote sensing image, decision
rules for integrated analysis in GIS can be assigned i.e. if the slope is not too
pronounced and the texture smooth, then such areas are recognized as frozen glacial
lakes.
After digitization of the lake boundaries, the segments were checked and the
glacial lakes were numbered using point identifiers. The numbering of the lakes
starts from the outlet of the major stream/river and proceeds clockwise round the
basin. Reference longitude and latitude are designated for the approximate
centre of the glacial lake by creating a digital point map over the screen digitized
glacial lakes. The area of the glacial lake is determined from the digital database
after digitization of the lake from the image data and topographic maps. The
drainage direction of the glacial lake is specified as one of eight cardinal directions
(N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W and NW). For a closed glacial lake, the orientation is
specified according to the direction of its longer axis (Mool et al. 2001). The
required attributes of the lakes were derived or entered in the attribute database in
the GIS.
For the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes, the glacial lakes
associated with glaciers such as Supraglacial, Valley, Cirque and/or dammed by
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 119
Lateral Moraine or End Moraine with an area larger than 0.02 km2 have been
considered and they have been defined as major glacial lakes. Moraine Dammed
glacial lakes, which are still in contact or very near to the glaciers, are usually
dangerous. These End Moraines are loose and unstable in nature. The advance
and retreat of the glacier affect the hydrology between the glacier and the
lake dammed by the moraines. Sudden natural phenomena, with a direct effect on
a lake, like ice avalanches or rock and lateral moraine material collapsing on a
lake, cause moraine breaches with subsequent lake outburst events. The phys-
ical conditions and criteria for identification of potential GLOF lakes, as men-
tioned by Mool et al. (2001), Bajracharya et al. (2007) and ICIMOD (2011), may
include:

. The rise in water level in glacial lakes dammed by moraines creates a situation
that endangers the lake to reach a breaching point.
. Activity of Supraglacial lakes – the lakes formed over glacial surface: as time
passes, groups of closely spaced Supraglacial lakes of smaller size at glacier
tongues merge and form bigger lakes that may become potentially dangerous.
. The potentially dangerous status of Moraine Dammed lakes can be defined
by the conditions of the damming material and the nature of the mother
glacier.
. The valley lakes with an area bigger than 0.1 km2 and a distance less than 0.5
km from the mother glacier of considerable size are considered to be
potentially dangerous. Cirque lakes even smaller than 0.1 km2 associated (in
contact or distance less than 0.5 km) with steep hanging glaciers are considered
to be potentially dangerous.
. A Moraine Dammed lake, which has breached and closed subsequently in the
past and has refilled again with water, can breach again.
. Physical conditions of the surrounding area such as potential rockfall/
slide (mass movements) sitedaround the lake which can fall into the lake
suddenly, hanging glacier in contact with the lake, snow avalanches of large
size around the lake which can fall into the lake suddenly, neo-tectonic and
earthquake activities around or near the lake area, presence of large mother
glacier can cause the lake to be potentially dangerous. The actively retreating
and steep hanging glaciers on the banks of lakes may also be a potential cause
of danger.

Although a standard index to define a lake as a source of potential dangerous

outbursting does not exist, the main factors considered were its physical
characteristics and association with its surroundings/nourishing glaciers. These
factors are found critical for identification of the potential GLOF lakes using single
period remote sensing image data. Later, a limited field survey was carried out on
two lakes in the Shyok basin and one in the Hunza basin, which conform the
susceptible conditions of the lakes.
A questionnaire survey was conducted in Ghulkin, Hussaini and Passu villages of
Hunza basin, Karakoram Range, which were affected by recent GLOF events during
2007 and 2008. Out of these, four occurred at Ghulkin glacier and one at Passu
glacier. A similar event also occurred on Passu glacier in 2007 that resulted in loss of
life and property downstream. The information collected pertained to the socio-
economic condition, understanding of national hazards, particularly glacial lake
120 A. Ashraf et al.
outburst floods, response to such hazards, preparedness, risk assessment and
mitigation.

3. Results and discussion

The systematic application of remote sensing and GIS has revealed about 2420
glacial lakes covering a surface area of about 126 km2 in the HKH Region of
Pakistan (table 2). There are 1328 major lakes that have areas greater than 0.02 km2.
Among 10 river basins in the HKH region, maximum glacial lakes lie in the Gilgit
basin followed by the Indus sub-basin, which lies partly in the Hindukush,
Karakoram and Himalaya mountain ranges. Fifty-two glacial lakes are character-
ized as potentially danger of GLOF based on pre-defined criteria. Most of these lie in
Indus, Astore and Gilgit river basins. Out of 52 potentially dangerous lakes, about
62% (32) belong to End Moraine Dammed type (figure 2). This type is present in
almost all the river basins except Shigar basin. About 25% of lakes (13) are Cirque
type, which lies in four southern basins namely Indus, Shingo, Astor and Jhelum.
Most of the GLOF lakes are oriented in the northwest while a minimum amount is in
the eastward direction (table 3). Generally, the northern and western aspects in the
high relief region of HKH are less exposed to solar radiations as compared to the
southern and eastern aspects. About 40% of glaciers (Roohi et al. 2005) and 60%
of the potential GLOF lakes concentrated on relatively cooler aspects of N, NW and
W may be less susceptible to climate induced hazards. However, lake characteristics
i.e. position and area may vary with changes in the physical condition of the
surrounding area.

3.1 Glacial lakes in HKH ranges

Among the three mountain ranges, Karakoram contains a maximum of about 37%
of the total glacial lakes followed by the Himalaya Range with about 34% lakes
(figure 3). Similarly, major lakes are higher in the Karakoram Range as compared to
other ranges. Among various types of glacial lakes, most of the lakes belong to

Table 2. Summary of glacial lakes in 10 river basins of HKH Region of Pakistan.

Basins Range Number of lakes Lake area (km2) Major lakes GLOF lakes

Swat Hindukush 255 15.86 163 2

Chitral Hindukush 187 9.37 70 1
Gilgit Karakoram 614 39.17 380 8
Hunza Karakoram 110 3.22 47 1
Shigar Karakoram 54 1.09 11 –
Shyok Karakoram 66 2.68 31 6
Shingo Himalaya 238 11.59 139 5
Astor Himalaya 126 5.53 64 9
Jhelum Himalaya 196 11.79 95 5
Indus part Hindukush 269 13.03 160 8
Karakoram 43 1.56 23 1
Himalaya 262 11.47 145 6
Total 2420 126.35 1328 52

GLOF, glacial lake outburst flood.

 Flood hazards in HKH Region 121

Figure 2. Types of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-
Himalaya (HKH) Region. Majority of GLOF lakes belong to End Moraine Dammed type.
Available in colour online.

Table 3. Summary of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes at various aspects.

Aspect Number Total area (ha) Largest (ha) Smallest (ha)

E 1 24.1 24.1 24.1

N 13 157.4 26.0 3.4
NE 7 93.2 27.0 1.7
NW 15 348.7 72.9 4.5
S 2 31.9 17.0 14.9
SE 6 82.6 28.2 1.3
SW 5 78.0 23.7 8.4
W 3 55.8 28.6 0.7
Total 52 871.7

Figure 3. Glacial lakes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) ranges. Glacial

lakes are maximum in the Karakoram Range. Available in colour online.

Erosion type the concentration of which is higher in the Himalaya Range than in the
other ranges (figure 4). Similarly, Cirque type lakes are dominant in this mountain
range, indicating a higher recession of glaciers due to environmental changes. The
Moraine Dammed lakes are predominant in the Karakoram Range, which is
evidence of the existence of more valley- type glaciers causing the development of the
moraine environment and ultimately melt-water lakes behind their moraines. The
occurrence of high numbers of supraglacial lakes in this mountain range also
provides a clue to the presence of large size glaciers here. In addition to high relief,
unstable deposits along the valley sides have made the slopes prone to mass
122 A. Ashraf et al.

Figure 4. Various types of glacial lake in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH)

ranges. Most of the lakes belong to Erosion type in the three mountain ranges. Available in
colour online.

movements in Karakoram. The termini of a number of glaciers lie close to the valley
floors and have advanced across it in the Late Pleistocene, and probably also in the
Neo-glacial (Roohi et al. 2005). Consequently, there have been a number of
interruptions to the drainage of the main rivers such as Hunza, Shimshal by ice or
debris dams besides landsliding and rockfall, causing frequent blocking of streams
and formation of dammed lakes. Although these blocked lakes are higher in
Karakoram than in other ranges but they are often short-lived and so their numbers
are usually low.
The potential GLOF lakes are dominant in the Himalaya Range indicating the
influence of global climate change in this mountainous range. Figure 5 shows a few
of the potential GLOF lakes referred to as A, B, C, D and E in the three mountain
ranges. Lakes B, C and D were surveyed, which indicated evidences of cyclic refill
and breach history thus making them susceptible to creating outburst flood hazards
in future. Lake A, visible in the FCC of 5, 4, 3 (RGB) of the Landsat-7 ETMþ image
is located in Chitral basin, Hindukush near the Afghanistan border. It has an area of
about 0.052 km2 and is in contact with the glacier that has an area of 1.75 km2.
Lakes B and C, seen in a semi-frozen state, have drainage linked to Shyok River near
a small town Bara in the eastern Karakoram Range. The lakes nourished by large
valley glaciers were identified due to their smooth surficial texure in the
panchromatic image of the winter season. Lake D, seen in FCC of 5, 4, 2 (RGB),
is an End Moraine Dammed lake draining into Hunza River in central Karakoram.
It was outburst several times during 2007 and 2008, probably due to the influence of
global warming in this glaciated area. Lake E in the FCC of 3, 1, 2 (RGB) of the
SPOT XS image is an End Moraine Dammed lake in contact with a large valley
glacier in the Astore basin, western Himalaya. It has an area of about 0.16 km2 and
was found to be growing at a rate of 0.74 hectares/year (Ashraf et al. 2008).
About 54% (28) of GLOF lakes lie within an elevation range of 4000–4500 masl
and 29% (15) within 4500–5000 masl (figure 6). About 12% of lakes (6) exist within
the 3500–4000 masl range. A maximum of 14 lakes in the Himalaya Range and 7
lakes in the Hindukush and Karakoram Ranges are situated above the 4000–4500
masl elevation range. Details of the physical characteristics of the GLOF lakes in the
three ranges are given in tables 4–6.
The Hindukush Range comprising of Swat River basin, Chitral River basin and
part of Indus sub-basin, contains 711 glacial lakes covering a surface area of about
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 123

Figure 5. The glimpses of potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) lakes in the
Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) Region. A: An End Moraine Dammed lake in
Chitral basin, Hindukush Range. B, C, D: These lakes in Shyok basin and Hunza basin,
Karakoram have a recycle history of refill and breach. E: An expanding lake in Astore basin,
Himalaya Range (Source: A–D Landsat ETMþ images of 2001 and E SPOT image of 2005).
Available in colour online.

Figure 6. Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes at different elevation ranges of the
Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) Region. Most of the potential GLOF lakes lie
within the 4000–4500 masl elevation range.

38.3 km2. There are 393 major lakes, among which 11 lakes are characterized as
potential danger of GLOF. In Swat River basin, major lakes possess about 94%
of the total lake area of the basin. The Valley lakes are relatively high in numbers.
 124

Table 4. Characteristics of potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes in Hindukush Range of Pakistan.
Associated Distance to
Serial no. Lake no. Lake type Area (km2) glacier glacier (m) Situation

1 Swat_gl 28 End Moraine 0.22 Swat_gr 21 – In contact with large glacier source
2 Swat_gl 189 End Moraine 0.27 Near large glacier of hanging nature
3 Chitr_gl 61 End Moraine 0.05 Chitr_gr 108 – in contact with large glacier
4 Ind_gl 125 Cirque 0.14 Ind_gr 213 In contact with hanging glacier
5 Ind_gl 162 Cirque 0.27 Ind_gr 313 In contact with hanging glacier
6 Ind_gl 47 End Moraine 0.11 Ind_gr 166 Near large glacier of hanging nature
7 Ind_gl 160 End Moraine 0.12 Ind_gr 311 Near large glacier of hanging nature
A. Ashraf et al.

8 Ind_gl 41 End Moraine 0.17 Ind_gr 165 505 Near glacier of hanging nature
9 Ind_gl 135 End Moraine 0.24 Ind_gr 263 450 Near large glacier of hanging nature
10 Ind_gl 147 End Moraine 0.28 Ind_gr 295 388 Near large glacier of hanging nature
11 Ind_gl 130 Valley 0.11 Ind_gr 245 472 Near hanging glacier
 Table 5. Characteristics of potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes in the Karakoram Range of Pakistan.
Associated Distance to
Serial no. Lake no. Lake type Area (km2) glacier glacier (m) Situation

1 Gil_gl 550 End Moraine 0.10 Gil_gr 191 464 Near large glacier source
2 Gil_gl 590 End Moraine 0.19 Gil_gr 366 – In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
3 Gil_gl 505 End Moraine 0.21 Gil_gr 79 820 Near large glacier of hanging nature
4 Gil_gl 336 End Moraine 0.21 Gil_gr 22 225 Near large glacier of hanging nature
5 Gil_gl 469 End Moraine 0.27 – 375 Near massive glacier
6 Gil_gl 399 End Moraine 0.73 Gil_gr 28 – In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
7 Gil_gl 589 Valley 0.20 – 412 Near several hanging glaciers
8 Gil_gl 611 Valley 0.29 – 159 Near several hanging glaciers
9 Hunza_gl 6 End Moraine 0.12 Hunza_gr 119 175 Near large glacier
10 Ind_gl 290 End Moraine 0.13 Ind_gr 470 In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
11 Shyk_gl 60 End Moraine 0.08 Shyk_gr 345 In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
12 Shyk_gl 62 End Moraine 0.09 Shyk_gr 355 In contact with large glacier
Flood hazards in HKH Region

13 Shyk_gl 45 End Moraine 0.13 Shyk_gr 293 In contact with large glacier
14 Shyk_gl 65 End Moraine 0.21 Shyk_gr 361 Large glacier source
15 Shyk_gl 64 Valley 0.11 Shyk_gr 360 432 Preceded by a lake and large glacier
16 Shyk_gl 51 Valley 0.17 Shyk_gr 305 435 Large glacier source
125
 126

Table 6. Characteristics of potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes in the Himalaya Range of Pakistan.
Associated Distance to
Serial no. Lake no. Lake type Area (km2) glacier glacier (m) Situation

1 Shin_gl 75 Cirque 0.25 Shin_gr 85 In contact with hanging glacier

2 Shin_gl 115 End Moraine 0.13 Shin_gr 89 180 Near large glacier of hanging nature
3 Shin_gl 167 End Moraine 0.72 Shin_gr 118 In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
4 Shin_gl 220 End Moraine 0.05 Shin_gr 151 Near large glacier of hanging nature
5 Shin_gl 227 Valley 0.08 Shin_gr 157 200 Near hanging glacier source
6 Astor_gl 36 Cirque 0.05 Astor_gr 199 Hanging glacier source
7 Astor_gl 48 Cirque 0.07 Astor_gr 250 Snow avalanche source
8 Astor_gl 51 Cirque 0.11 Astor_gr 254 Hanging glacier source
9 Astor_gl 25 Cirque 0.14 Astor_gr 163 In contact with hanging glacier
10 Astor_gl 40 Cirque 0.16 Astor_gr 218 Hanging glacier source
11 Astor_gl 53 End Moraine 0.08 Astor_gr 254 75 Close to large glacier
12 Astor_gl 121 End Moraine 0.09 Astor_gr 564 At active glacier tongue
13 Astor_gl 108 End Moraine 0.16 Astor_gr 445 In contact with large glacier
14 Astor_gl 50 Valley 0.31 Astor_gr 252 125 Situated in hanging valley, dangerous
A. Ashraf et al.

glacial lake 300 m upstream

15 Jhe_gl 97 Cirque 0.20 – In contact with large glacier
16 Jhe_gl 113 Cirque 0.12 Jhe_gr 200 In contact with hanging glacier
17 Jhe_gl 134 Cirque 0.24 Jhe_gr 315 Snow avalanche source
18 Jhe_gl 131 End Moraine 0.71 Jhe_gr 300 153 Near large glacier of hanging nature
19 Jhe_gl 140 End Moraine 0.12 – In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
20 Ind_gl 502 Cirque 0.15 Near hanging ice mass
21 Ind_gl 519 Cirque 0.17 Ind_gr 928 Large lake near hanging glacier
22 Ind_gl 394 End Moraine 0.03 Ind_gr 656 In contact with large glacier
23 Ind_gl 444 End Moraine 0.04 Ind_gr 878 In contact with large glacier of hanging nature
24 Ind_gl 457 End Moraine 0.06 Ind_gr 886 177 Near large glacier of hanging nature
25 Ind_gl 351 End Moraine 0.14 Snow avalanche source
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 127
The two End Moraine Dammed lakes classified as potentially dangerous in this basin
lie in the extreme northwestern part adjacent to the Chitral River basin and are
associated with large Valley type glaciers (table 4). In Chitral River basin, about
37% of lakes have been characterized as major lakes, the majority of which belong to
Valley and Erosion types. Only one lake of the End Moraine Dammed type has been
identified as potentially dangerous, which is in contact with a large valley glacier. In
the part of Indus sub basin of Hindukush, out of 269 glacial lakes, 160 are
characterized as major lakes. Eight lakes are identified as potentially dangerous,
among which 5 belong to the End Moraine Dammed type. Figure 7 indicates the
distribution of glacial lakes and potential GLOF lakes in the three HKH ranges of
Pakistan.
The Karakoram Range, comprised of Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, Shyok River
basins and part of Indus sub-basin, contains 887 glacial lakes covering a surface
area of about 47.7 km2. There are 492 major lakes in the range, among which 16
lakes are identified as potentially dangerous. In Gilgit basin, about 62% lakes
have been characterized as major lakes in which dominant lakes belong to
Erosion and Valley types. Among 8 glacial lakes identified as potentially danger
of GLOF in this basin, 6 belong to the End Moraine Dammed type (table 5). In
Hunza River basin, the majority of glacial lakes are smaller in size as about 43%
of the lakes are characterized as major lakes. Due to high altitude and extensive
glacial coverage, the numbers as well as the area of glacial lakes are relatively low
in this basin. An End Moraine Dammed lake (Hunza_gl 6) associated with a
large valley glacier is characterized as potentially hazardous of GLOF. Similarly

Figure 7. Potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) lakes in the glaciated Hindukush-
Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) ranges of Pakistan. Available in colour online.
128 A. Ashraf et al.
in the Shigar River basin, due to extensive glaciated coverage i.e. about 30% of
the basin, glacial lakes are less in number and size, and major lakes are only 20%
of the total basin lakes. Most of the glacial lakes are of Supraglacial type. There
is no lake identified as potentially danger of GLOF in this basin. In Shyok River
basin, about 47% lakes are characterized as major lakes among which End
Moraine Dammed type are dominant. Six lakes are identified as potentially
dangerous associated mostly with large source glaciers. In the Indus sub basin
part of Karakoram Range, out of 43 glacial lakes, 23 are characterized as major
lakes and only one lake of End Moraine Dammed type is identified as potentially
hazardous of GLOF (table 5).
The Himalaya Range comprised of Shingo, Astore, Jhelum River basins and part
of Indus sub-basin east and south of the Indus River contains 822 glacial lakes
covering a surface area of about 40.4 km2. There are 443 major lakes in the range,
among which 25 lakes are characterized as potentially danger of GLOF. In Shingo
river basin, about 58% of the glacial lakes are characterized as major lakes, among
which dominant lakes belong to Erosion and Valley types. There are 5 potential
GLOF lakes consisting of three End Moraine Dammed, and one each Cirque and
Valley type lakes (table 6). In Astor River basin, 64 lakes are characterized as major
lakes, the majority of which belong to Cirque and Valley types. Nine lakes are
identified as potentially danger of GLOF consisting mainly of Cirque and End
Moraine and one Valley lake. All the potentially dangerous Cirque lakes are situated
at the toe of the hanging glaciers. This situation is susceptible as the ice mass of
hanging glaciers can slip and plunge into the lake at any time, resulting in surging
and breaching of the lake’s dam causing a glacial lake outburst flood. In Jhelum
River basin there are 95 major lakes, most of which belong to Erosion and Cirque
types. Five lakes are identified as potentially danger of GLOF concentrated mainly
in the central and northern parts of the basin. These lakes are generally in contact
with hanging glaciers or a large glacial source. In the part of the Indus sub-basin of
Himalaya, among 145 major lakes, 6 lakes are identified as potentially dangerous.
Most of these belong to End Moraine Dammed type and are associated with large
glaciers of hanging nature (table 6).

3.2 Risk assessment and mitigation

Overall the northern glaciated region has a population of about 0.5 million, which is
mainly concentrated in the southern Himalayan basins. A questionnaire survey was
conducted in about 32 households of the three flood affected villages of Hunza basin
in Karakoram Range. Nearly all villages have been affected to different degrees by
natural hazards, which resulted in the loss of cultivated lands, destruction of
irrigation and communication networks. Thus the resource potential of existing
villages has been diminished by catastrophic events. The three affected villages –
Ghulkin, Hussaini and Passu have total households of about 138, 83 and 117 with a
population of about 1133, 621 and 863 during 2005 (FOCUS 2008). The villages lie
in Gojal – the largest tehsil (sub-district) of the Northern Areas, which shares its
border with China in the northeast and Afghanistan in the northwest. It has a
population of about 20 000 comprised of different ethnic groups of Wakhi and
Burushaski. Ghulkin village is situated in the south whereas Hussaini is in the
northeast of Ghulkin glacier. Hussaini spreads upward from the bank of Hunza
River and reaches up to a considerable elevation along the lateral moraine of
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 129
Ghulkin glacier. The moraine is exposed with huge boulders, gravel, pebbles, and
sandy soil with a gentle slope. In the south, the snout of the glacier and the glacial
stream separates Hussaini from Ghulkin. Passu village lies in the east to the
northeast of Passu glacier. Passu lake separates the village from the snout of the
glacier.
Most of the respondents think landslides, flash floods and glacier surges are the
main natural hazards. A few add earthquake and river erosion. Some of these
hazards such as floods, river erosion and landslides are interlinked. The intensity of
flash floods may increase the process of river erosion and in some cases cause
triggering of landslides. According to the respondents in Ghulkin and Hussaini, flash
floods mostly occurred during the period from spring to the end of the summer, but
for the first time in January 2008. Though rainfall is not a major hazard in the area,
it results in the creation of a mass movement/landslide hazard. The Karakoram
Highway (KKH) is often blocked and/or damaged due to such events during the
rainy season.
According to most of the respondents, the villagers’ responses to such events were
on a self-help basis. No formal coping and preparedness mechanism exists in the
villages. In the case of any disaster incidence, they participate actively in providing
evacuation and relief services to the victims of their village or even of their
neighbouring villages. Everyone uses self-experience, knowledge, physical and
mental abilities to reduce the hazard risks. Some of the people temporarily move
to other towns and villages, usually to their relatives’ houses. Village communities
help in risk reduction by pooling resources. Though local volunteers and scouts
assist villagers in evacuation and provide necessary relief to the people, resources are
mostly inadequate at community level to cope with such extreme flood situations.
Some of the respondents informed that due to lack of resources they had a problem
relocating even though most of the villagers wanted to migrate to safe places. The
community members pointed towards the scanty state of medical help during
emergencies and requested quick first aid and medical assistance during the
emergency situations. The people of demolished households were shifted to the
community’s religious centres (locally ‘Jammat Khana’) and schools for shelter and
relief. Most of the respondents claim non-availability of outside support from any
government agency in such hazards.
The major impact of the glacial floods was on agriculture land, which ultimately
affected the economy of the people. Livelihood insecurity due to agriculture losses is
among the major concern for flood vulnerability. Similarly, flood damage to
the infrastructure in turn influences the tourism and trade/marketing across the area.
In Ghulkin, there was a heavy damage due to flood events in 2008 (http://
pamirtimes.net/2008/04/08). The destruction of land and property in situation such
as on 6 January 2008 had caused a psychological trauma and unrest in the village
community. During high flood conditions, people often face mental disturbances,
health and psychological problems. The village people, especially the elderly, women
and children are under great mental stress because of the shadowing disasters and
risks. In Hussaini, floods damaged the main irrigation channels, which disturbed the
livelihood of the village. At present, there was no functional irrigation channel in the
village. The damage to the bridge had caused the KKH to be blocked for 4 days.
People had to carry their goods manually, which intensified their efforts and created
physical and mental fatigue. Many tours were cancelled because of the road block.
The tourism office was also totally destroyed.
130 A. Ashraf et al.
Three lives were lost in the Hussaini village, two of which were females. Two
lives were lost in the Ghulkin village, which include one female under 10 years.
These events mostly occurred near agricultural land away from the village
settlement, which is why loss of human lives was less. In total 21 people were
affected by these floods. As a result of the GLOF events, 72 kanals of land
were affected out of which 29 kanals were cropland. Four hundred and sixty fruit
trees worth over 161 000 Pak rupees were destroyed. Seven houses and 4 livestock
sheds were demolished killing 15 cattle. Nine hundred square feet of terrace walls
were damaged (verbal communication). About 760 m of link road and 2 electricity
poles were destroyed. Five water channels, 28 pipes and 2 water storage tanks
were also damaged. The damage to KKH and a bridge cost hundreds of
thousands of rupees. Similarly, loss to trade and tourism affected the livelihood
and economy of the communities. In Ghulkin, the loss of livestock to a farmer
ranged up to 30 000 Pak rupees, which collectively reached a hundred thousand
rupees. In Hussaini, the loss exceeded 100 000 Pak rupees (Roohi et al. 2008).
There was a loss to crops e.g. wheat, potatoes, fruit plants e.g. apricot, apple and
popular trees. In Passu, loss to a farmer ranged within 20–40 thousand rupees. But
collectively, it reached hundreds of thousands of rupees as a whole. The crops
affected include potatoes, barley, wheat, apples, cherry, grapes, apricot and plums,
besides loss of popular trees.
It has become increasingly recognized that the isolated nature of many of the
region’s communities, coupled with the Northern Areas’ high-altitude and fragile
environment, poses special constraints and challenges in mitigating natural hazards
like GLOFs. In order to lower the water level and drain the lake posing threat of
GLOF hazard on Ghulkin glacier, a siphoning technique was applied by the village
community. An excavation of the lateral moraine near the lake formation was
undertaken to setup siphoning. Due to poor livelihood conditions, lack of resources
and proper management within the system the communities have a problem
in taking effective response measures for risk reduction or mitigation. Although
local committees are therefore undertaking different tasks, gaps exist in their
coordination and capacity buildings. Outside help is rarely available or rather
unavailable in time.

4. Conclusion
. Digital image analysis integrated with GIS application has revealed the
formation of about 2420 glacial lakes in the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya
(HKH) Region of Pakistan, among which 52 lakes are characterized as
potentially dangerous GLOF hazards. Among 52 potential GLOF lakes are
identified in HKH region, 25 of which lie in the Himalaya Range, indicating
the prevalence of global change influence on this mountainous range.
. About 62% of these lakes belong to the End Moraine Dammed type and 25%
to the Cirque type. About 54% of GLOF lakes lie within the elevation range of
4000–4500 masl and 29% within 4500–5000 masl. A maximum of 14 lakes in
Himalaya and 7 each in Hindukush and Karakoram lie over the 4000–4500
masl range.
. GLOF events are becoming a threat to the livelihood of the glaciated HKH
region of Pakistan, probably due to the influence of global warming in this
region.
 Flood hazards in HKH Region 131
. The communities of the northern glaciated region are highly vulnerable to
natural hazards as no formal coping and preparedness mechanism exists at
village levels. The local communities usually respond to such events on a self-
help basis.
. There is a need to create awareness of flood hazard preparedness and risk
reduction among target communities and key stakeholders, impart specialized
training and capacity building in hazard mitigation and risk management.
. Climate change needs to be studied more systematically in order to cope with
the degree of its impact on the glacial environment, especially in GLOF-
susceptible areas. Detailed investigations of hot spot GLOF lakes should be
undertaken in different river basins.
. In the face of the increase in global warming, there is a need to perform hazard
and risk assessment analysis, and develop risk mitigation strategies to provide
a comprehensive policy framework. As non-structural measures, hazard
assessment and monitoring of GLOF areas are required through the utilization
of techniques such as remote sensing and hydrodynamic modelling coupled
with ground surveys for better risk mitigation and early warning.

Acknowledgments
The all out support of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD), Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the global change SysTem for
Analysis, Research, and Training (START) for undertaking the glacier resource
inventory and UNDP, Pakistan for community based risk assessment and the
response survey is highly appreciated as without this the present work would not
be possible. The database development and mapping support by members of the
Water Resources Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre,
Islamabad is also gratefully acknowledged. The authors are also grateful to two
reviewers of the manuscript for rendering valuable comments and suggestions for its
improvement.

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