Erste Group Research

Special Report | CEE | Economy

8. March 2021

Inflation on CEE horizon?

Inflation developments likely to be in focus this year in CEE region, as rising expectations scared
investors and could become hard nut to crack for central banks. Tight labor markets and base
effect from oil prices will be key factors behind rising headline CPI.
Analyst(s):
Malgorzata Krzywicka Inflation could cause trouble for CEE central banks
malgorzata.krzywicka@erstegroup.com

Katarina Muchova During the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation development diverged in the CEE
katarina.muchova@erstegroup.com region. Euro member countries and Croatia entered a low inflation or even
deflation environment, following core markets. Other CEE countries were
characterized by increased headline inflation throughout the year.

The pandemic crisis did not wreak havoc on CEE labor markets, as
unemployment rates did not increase as much as earlier had been expected.
The Czech labor market remains the tightest in the EU, with the lowest
unemployment rate and record-high vacancy ratio. The favorable situation
on the labor market will enable households to restart spending as soon as
restrictions are lifted. Pent-up demand and an improving labor market will
remain a pro-inflationary factor in the region.

The collapse of global oil demand in April 2020, and subsequent sharp drop
in oil prices, pushed headline inflation down in 2Q20. However, as economic
activity rebounded, oil prices also increased. With prices returning to pre-
crisis levels in February 2021, the base effect will push up headline inflation
significantly in April-May 2021, adding 1-2pp to the headline figure
depending on the country.

The peak in HICP inflation will likely be reached in April-May 2021 and could
become a headache for central bankers, especially when coupled with
strong double-digit growth of retail sales and industrial production (also due
to the base effect). All in all, we think that CEE central banks will, except for
the Czech National Bank, remain on hold this year and focus on
communicating to the markets that the increase in inflation is only temporary
and driven by the base effect.

Headline HICP
y/y growth, %

CEE Macro & FI Research

Juraj Kotian (Head)

Katarzyna Rzentarzewska
(Chief CEE Macro Analyst)
Malgorzata Krzywicka
(Analyst PL)

Note: Past performance is not necessarily

indicative of future results.
Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research

CEE Macro & FI Research Page 1

Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

Recent inflation development in region

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, inflation in CEE countries diverged.

Eurozone member states and Croatia followed a path of low inflation or
deflation, while other CEE countries were characterized by increased
headline inflation. The sharp drop of oil and energy prices in April-May 2020
took some pressure off the headline figure in Czechia, Hungary and
Romania. Core inflation remained elevated in Czechia, Hungary and Poland
throughout 2020. The tight labor market was behind the development, while
in Poland it was amplified by surging services prices.

At the start of the year, headline HICP surprised to the upside in Poland due
to the increase of administered prices and introduction of new taxes, and in
Romania due to the liberalization of electricity prices. Inflation also came in
above expectations in Czechia and Hungary on the back of food prices
development and increases of excise taxes on tobacco products,
respectively. On the other hand, a sharp drop in administered prices in
Slovakia dragged the headline figure below 1.0% y/y. In Croatia and
Slovenia, price pressures remain muted.

Labor market in CEE: does Phillips curve hold?

Ahead of the COVID-19 crisis, the CEE region was characterized by a tight
labor market, in contrast with some western European countries.
Unemployment rates have been among the lowest in the EU, while wage
growth remained solid, hitting double-digit levels in some CEE countries.
Moreover, very high job vacancy rates, especially in the case of Czechia,
added further pressure. The favorable situation on the labor market
supported consumer confidence and boosted the level of household
spending, resulting in increased inflationary pressures ahead of the
pandemic.

Labor market remained tight in CEE Phillips curves: negative relationship between
Job vacancy rate, unemployment rate, % as of 3Q20 unemployment and inflation holds in CEE

Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research Source: Erste Group Research

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Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

In order to mitigate the negative effects of lockdowns on the labor market,

CEE governments introduced various schemes that prevented an abrupt
increase in unemployment. Although the situation on the labor market in
CEE has somewhat deteriorated, it remains favorable. The unemployment
rate in Czechia, Poland and Hungary is still the lowest in the EU, while being
below the EU27 average in the remaining countries except for Croatia. In
Croatia, the worsening of labor market conditions was due to the country’s
high exposure to tourism, which was hit the most by the containment
measures. All in all, the tightness of the labor market will pose upward
pressure on inflation in CEE, especially in Czechia.

As the situation on the labor market in the CEE region did not deteriorate
substantially due to the COVID-19 crisis, we expect that household
spending will be restarted together with the easing of restrictions. During the
crisis, household saving rates increased across the region, while
government schemes provided additional support to consumers. As a result,
the pent-up demand, especially for goods, could put some further pressure
on inflation.

The inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation held
well in the 1960s in the US; however, in recent years that relationship has
become much less visible. One of the reasons behind the flattening of the
Phillips curve is the anchoring of inflation expectations, which drive inflation,
but not unemployment. Del Negro et al. (2020) 1 found that the response of
inflation to demand shocks moderated in the post-1990 period, while the
reaction of the real economy remained in place. That finding implies that the
sensitivity of inflation to demand-induced pressures was reduced,
suggesting that the slope of the Phillips curve fell in the post-1990 period.
However, does low unemployment imply rising inflation in CEE?

Moretti et al. (2019)2 found that the slope of the Phillips curve in the EA is
sizeable and statistically significant, in particular when using unemployment-
related measures of slack. We found that in 2015-20 the relationship
between labor market slack and HICP inflation was inverse and the slope of
the Phillips curve was negative for all CEE economies. However, the
relation was significant only for Croatia, Hungary and Slovakia, while it was
not statistically significant in other CEE countries.

Food and oil prices could pour oil onto fire

In April 2020, oil prices nosedived in light of the then collapsing global
demand, reaching the lowest level in almost two decades. As a result,
inflation dropped significantly. As economic activity rebounded, oil prices
increased as well. With prices returning to pre-crisis levels in February 2021,
the base effect will push headline inflation significantly up in April-May 2021.
Keeping monthly fuel prices flat at the level from January 2021 until the end
of the year would shift headline inflation up by 1-2pp depending on the
country. The peak in HICP inflation would be reached in April-May 2021 and
could be a headache for central bankers in combination with strong double-
digit growth of retail sales and industrial production (also affected by the
base effect).

1https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2435~42e97b8aaf.en.pd

f
2https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2295~3ac7c904cd.en.p

df?b85e37fb1e1d08ddf492c7bff32d6151
CEE Macro & FI Research Page 3
Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

Another inflationary factor that could kick in this year is food prices. Food
prices peaked in April 2020 in the CEE region and have been falling since
then. On the other hand, the UN food index that tracks prices of food
commodities bottomed out in May 2020, pointing to possible upward
pressure on global food prices in the coming months.

Base effect from last year’s drop in oil prices… … will push headline inflation up in April-May 2021
Oil price (USD/bbl) and growth (% y/y) Headline HICP incl. base effect from oil prices, % y/y

Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research Source: Eurostat, Erste Group Research

Money supply and credit growth another risk factor?

Since the outbreak of the pandemic, we have seen strong double-digit

growth of the money supply across the CEE region, with Hungary hitting
growth dynamics not observed since the end of the 1990s. Such expansion
of the money supply could be explained by continued credit growth (or
contained deleveraging due to government sponsored schemes and
moratoria) accompanied by fiscal expansion. Although growth of loans to
households slowed down in 2H20, it still sustained positive dynamics.

The economic theory would translate high money supply directly into
inflation. However, that relation is not so clear in the CEE region. Despite
that, we think that, as soon as the pandemic situation improves, consumers
will begin to spend. We expect private consumption to rebound strongly
across the region and grow from between 1.6% in Slovakia to as much as
4.9% in Czechia. The pent-up demand, combined with solid consumer
sentiment at the start of the year, could result in increased demand for some
products that could lead to rising prices.

Another interesting point was made by Gersbach (2020)3, who claims that
the disinflationary force through bank equity regulation will no longer be at
work once the economies return to normality. Thus, inflation could be higher
as well. In his view, tightening of capital requirements over the last decade
has created an anti-inflation force, which limited the lending activities of
banks and thus creation of bank deposits what reduced the growth of the

3 https://voxeu.org/article/tightening-bank-equity-capital-regulation
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Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

money supply. However, as the tightening of bank equity regulations has

come to an end, this force will be gone and could therefore pose upside
risks to inflation.

Strong money supply growth across region… … coupled with robust lending to households
Money supply growth, % y/y Loans to household growth, % y/y

Source: Erste Group Research Source: Local central banks, Erste Group Research

COVID-19 fiscal response

The fiscal policy response to the pandemic has been rather sizeable in CEE
and has protected the national economies from any more pronounced
negative impact of COVID-19. According to the IMF’s fiscal tracker, last year’s
additional spending or foregone revenues in CEE countries ranged from 2.3%
of GDP in Romania to 7.7% of GDP in Poland. Moreover, liquidity support
(which includes equity, loans and guarantees) ranged from 1.4% of GDP in
Serbia to 15.5% of GDP in the Czech Republic. In light of the epidemiological
development, many countries have extended the support measures into
2021. These discretionary measures have supplemented existing automatic
stabilizers that vary between the countries in their scope, but have also
mitigated the negative economic effects.

Many measures have been aimed at protecting jobs and cushioning the
impact of the pandemic on individuals and households. Thus, disposable
income and consequently consumption have not been hit as much as could
have been feared last spring. This has also been feeding into economic
growth and inflation.

However, following the fiscal impulse in 2020 and 2021, consolidation efforts
will be needed in order to reign in the high deficits incurred and try to keep
public debt levels in check. Thus, the impact from the current fiscal stimulus
on growth and inflation is likely to be reversed in the following years.
Nevertheless, the remaining and new EU funds, together with the large
financial injection from the Next Generation EU program, will compensate for
lower spending on the national level. Therefore, the medium-term fiscal
stance could be broadly neutral.

CEE Macro & FI Research Page 5

Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

Fiscal policy response to pandemic… … resulted in high budget deficits across region
% of GDP Budget deficit, % of GDP

Source: IMF, Erste Group Research Source: Erste Group Research

Do inflation expectations matter?

Monetary policymakers have been stressing the importance of consumer

inflation expectations in stabilizing the economy and increasing the
effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the low interest rate
environment. In order to stabilize the economy, consumers should base
their decision on their beliefs about price development in the future. In other
words, consumers should increase their spending now, when they expect
prices to be higher in the future. That increase in spending should also push
inflation. However, do inflation expectations really matter? What price
developments do CEE consumers expect?

Duca-Radu et. al (2020)4 found that, in six analyzed EA countries, an

increase in consumers’ inflation expectations relative to their own
perceptions of current inflation is indeed associated with a positive response
in readiness to spend. In fact, they found that a gradual 2.0pp expected
increase in inflation (e.g. from inflation that is too low at 0.0% to a level of
2.0%), boosts EA consumption by approx. 0.28% in cumulative terms over a
three-year period when the effective lower bound is constraining policy. On
the other hand, Candia et al. (2020)5 conclude that, across developed
countries, households and firms associate higher inflation with a worse
economic situation – a supply-side view, while professional forecasts seem
to have a view consistent with demand-driven business cycles and a
Philipps curve, i.e. high inflation is associated with higher forecast output.

In the CEE region, consumers’ price expectations do not seem to be

reflected in the inflation development. Although we think that price
expectations are not the key driver of inflation, it is striking by how much
they increased at the start of the pandemic crisis. In our view, such a surge,

4 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-
research/resbull/2021/html/ecb.rb210112~f5d940bff2.en.html
5https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/sympos/2020/ccg%20-

%202020-08-28%20_kansas.pdf?la=en
CEE Macro & FI Research Page 6
Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

which is consistent across the region and other EU countries, could reflect a
steep increase in the prices of a specific product category (e.g. food),
worries about limited supply (due to stockpiling) or the deteriorating financial
situation of households.

Inflation expectations do not seem to drive inflation Inflation expectations jumped at start of crisis
Share of respondents who expect higher prices in next Share of respondents who expect higher prices in next
12M compared to last 12M (%), change in HICP (pp) 12M compared to last 12M, %

Source: European Commission, Eurostat, Erste Group Research Source: European Commission

Candia et al. (2020) found that, despite growing evidence that the inflation
expectations mechanism matters, the central banks’ communication is
crucial in creating the correct interpretation among households and firms.
Households that associate higher inflation with a worsening of the economic
situation will cut their spending for non-essential goods and services, while
firms will reduce employment and investment. Such a pattern has in fact
been observed since the outbreak of the pandemic in the CEE region and
elsewhere and could be worrisome, especially for central bankers in
Czechia and Poland.

Inflation fears and recovery optimism pushed yields

up

The vaccine rollout as well as rising expectations for a quicker recovery of

global economic growth, resulted in a burst of optimism on the markets.
President’s Biden announcement of a further fiscal stimulus package that
could reach as much as USD 1.9 trillion and its acceptance by the US
Senate, sparked additional concerns among investors over the possibility of
rising inflation this year. Thus, the 10Y US Treasury yield has increased by
more than 50bp to almost 1.6% since the beginning of February, while the
10Y German Bund went up by 20bp to around -0.3%, going as high as -
0.22% at the end of the month.

Recent yield increases attracted the interest of the ECB policy makers,
which would in the medium term want to provide as favorable as possible
financing conditions for Eurozone economies. The latest comments from
CEE Macro & FI Research Page 7
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Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

ECB officials, suggesting that the central bank could act against rising
yields, resulted in a drop of the 10Y Bund toward -0.35%.

CEE LCY bonds followed core market developments and we have observed
visible yield increases along the whole curve since the beginning of
February. The 10Y yield went up by more than 20bp in all CEE countries
except for Slovenia. As of March 5, financing costs increased the most in
Romania as it went up by almost 70bp. In Czechia, Hungary, Poland and
Slovakia, the 10Y yield went up by around 40bp.

Despite last month’s hectic moves on the bond market, we are comfortable
with our 2Q21 yield forecast and expect to see some stabilization of yields
around recent levels. In the case of Romania, we expect a downward
correction by around 50bp by the end of 2Q21, as the recent strong
increases mainly occurred during calm sessions and have additionally been
exacerbated by the latest National Bank of Romania repo auction that
sterilized liquidity from the market.

Better than expected 4Q20 GDP growth in the case of Hungary and
Czechia, coupled with surprisingly high inflation at the start of the year in
Czechia and Poland, pushed up market rates. Hawkish comments from the
Czech National Bank and the March inflation projection of the National Bank
of Poland, which expects inflation to stay above the target for the next three
years, increased market expectations for monetary tightening. The markets
price in around 20-25bp hike in Czechia and Poland, and up to 50bp
tightening in Hungary in nine months.

Yield curve steepened across CEE region Rising market expectations for rate hikes in CEE
2Y-10Y spread, bp 9x12 FRAs, % (as of March 5)

Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research Source: Bloomberg, Erste Group Research

How will regional central banks react?

Due to the base effect, in the coming months in CEE we will likely see high
inflation readings coupled with double-digit growth of industrial production
and retail sales, while regional central banks will stick to loose monetary
policy. We think that the CEE central banks, except for the Czech National
Bank, will remain on hold this year and will focus on communicating to the
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Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

markets that the increase in inflation is only temporary and driven by the
base effect.

The National Bank of Poland and the Hungarian central bank might find
themselves in the most complicated situation, as headline inflation could
exceed 4% y/y in April-May 2021, pushed up by fuel prices. We think that
the NBP could focus on monitoring core inflation excl. regulated prices,
which dropped below the lower bound of central bank’s inflation target at the
end of 2020. We believe that the NBP will remain on hold until the end of
Governor Glapinski’s term in 2022. As far as the MNB is concerned, they
will remain cautious and could react with the raising of the one-week deposit
rate to prevent the forint from depreciation and creating additional
inflationary pressure.

Higher than expected inflation at the start of the year in Romania has
exhausted, in our view, room for further easing and we expect the NBR to
stick to the current monetary policy toolkit. A stable rate outlook is also the
most likely scenario in Serbia. The Czech National Bank remains the most
hawkish in the region and we expect the CNB to deliver the first 25bp
interest hike in November 2021, due to rising inflation pressure. However,
monetary tightening could already be voted for in August, given the surprise
in headline inflation in January.

Key rates to remain stable in 2021 in CEE except for Czechia

Key rate, %

Source: Erste Group Research

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8. March 2021

Forecasts overview
Government bond yields
current 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1
Croatia 10Y 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 -
spread (bps) 92 90 83 80 22
Czechia 10Y 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 FX
spread (bps) 207 209 199 200 199 current 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1
Hungary 10Y 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 EURHRK 7.57 7.50 7.48 7.53 7.53
spread (bps) 300 302 301 303 306
Poland 10Y 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 EURCZK 26.33 25.78 25.60 25.39 25.12
spread (bps) 190 185 183 185 182
Romania10Y 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 EURHUF 367.03 355.00 355.00 355.00 355.00
spread (bps) 367 330 313 305 312
Slovakia 10Y -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 EURPLN 4.59 4.48 4.46 4.45 4.42
spread (bps) 20 40 48 60 57
Slovenia 10Y 0.03 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 EURRON 4.88 4.90 4.92 4.95 5.01
spread (bps) 33 50 43 40 42
Serbia 5Y 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 EURRSD 117.50 117.40 117.30 117.40 117.30
spread (bps) 216 290 273 260 242
DE10Y* -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 EURUSD 1.19 1.18 1.20 1.22 -
* Spreads based on Bloomberg consensus forecast

3M Money Market Rate Key Interest Rate

current 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 current 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1
Croatia 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Czechia 0.36 0.34 0.42 0.66 0.91 Czechia 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75
Hungary 0.77 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 Hungary 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.75
Poland 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 Poland 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Romania 1.70 1.55 1.50 1.40 1.50 Romania 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Serbia 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 Serbia 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Eurozone -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 -0.54 - Eurozone 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -

Real GDP growth (%) Average inflation (%) Unemployment (%)

2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Croatia 2.9 -8.5 4.5 3.6 Croatia 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.5 Croatia 6.6 7.7 8.7 7.6
Czechia 2.3 -5.6 3.9 5.7 Czechia 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.3 Czechia 2.0 2.6 4.8 4.1
Hungary 4.6 -5.1 5.5 4.4 Hungary 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.2 Hungary 3.4 4.2 4.4 3.8
Poland 4.5 -2.8 3.1 4.1 Poland 2.3 3.4 3.0 1.9 Poland 5.4 5.9 6.2 5.9
Romania 4.1 -3.9 4.2 4.5 Romania 3.8 2.7 2.9 2.7 Romania 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.1
Serbia 4.2 -1.1 5.0 4.0 Serbia 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.2 Serbia 10.4 8.8 8.9 8.5
Slovakia 2.3 -5.2 4.0 4.8 Slovakia 2.7 1.9 0.9 1.9 Slovakia 5.8 6.8 7.3 6.4
Slovenia 3.2 -6.7 4.4 3.9 Slovenia 1.6 0.0 0.9 1.5 Slovenia 4.4 5.1 5.3 4.9
CEE8 avg 3.8 -4.2 3.9 4.5 CEE8 avg 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.2 CEE8 avg 4.6 5.2 6.0 5.6

Public debt (% of GDP) C/A (%GDP) Budget Balance (%GDP)

2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f
Croatia 72.8 87.5 86.8 85.4 Croatia 2.7 -1.8 0.6 -0.2 Croatia 0.4 -8.0 -3.5 -2.8
Czechia 30.2 43.7 49.3 50.1 Czechia -0.3 2.2 0.3 0.5 Czechia 0.3 -5.8 -3.5 -1.9
Hungary 65.4 79.3 78.0 76.0 Hungary -0.2 0.4 -0.7 -0.8 Hungary -2.0 -8.7 -6.8 -5.1
Poland 45.7 61.0 59.0 57.5 Poland 0.5 3.5 2.1 1.2 Poland -0.7 -9.7 -5.8 -3.2
Romania 35.2 47.0 50.1 51.5 Romania -4.7 -5.0 -4.6 -4.1 Romania -4.4 -9.1 -7.8 -5.4
Serbia 52.0 57.6 56.5 54.7 Serbia -6.8 -5.6 -5.6 -5.5 Serbia -0.2 -8.1 -4.0 -1.7
Slovakia 48.5 60.1 63.4 63.4 Slovakia -2.7 -2.7 -1.6 -1.0 Slovakia -1.4 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0
Slovenia 65.6 79.1 78.3 75.7 Slovenia 5.6 5.0 4.3 3.8 Slovenia 0.5 -9.5 -6.0 -4.0
CEE8 avg 45.8 59.4 59.8 59.2 CEE8 avg -0.7 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 CEE8 avg -1.2 -8.6 -5.7 -3.6

Source: European Commission, Erste Group Research

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8. March 2021

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Head: Henning Eßkuchen +43 (0)5 0100 19634 Gábor Bálint +36 1 237 8205
Daniel Lion, CIIA (Technology, Ind. Goods&Services) +43 (0)5 0100 17420 Ádám Szönyi +36 1 237 8213
Michael Marschallinger, CFA +43 (0)5 0100 17906 Romania and Bulgaria
Nora Nagy (Telecom) +43 (0)5 0100 17416 Head: Ruxandra Lungu +40 373516562
Christoph Schultes, MBA, CIIA (Real Estate) +43 (0)5 0100 11523
Thomas Unger, CFA (Banks, Insurance) +43 (0)5 0100 17344 Group Institutional Equity Sales
Vladimira Urbankova, MBA (Pharma) +43 (0)5 0100 17343 Head: Brigitte Zeitlberger-Schmid +43 (0)50100 83123
Martina Valenta, MBA +43 (0)5 0100 11913 Werner Fürst +43 (0)50100 83121
Josef Kerekes +43 (0)50100 83125
Croatia/Serbia Cormac Lyden +43 (0)50100 83120
Mladen Dodig (Head) +381 11 22 09178 Czech Republic
Anto Augustinovic +385 72 37 2833 Head: Michal Řízek +420 224 995 537
Magdalena Dolenec +385 72 37 1407 Jiří Fereš +420 224 995 554
Davor Spoljar, CFA +385 72 37 2825 Martin Havlan +420 224 995 551
Pavel Krabička +420 224 995 411
Czech Republic Poland
Petr Bartek (Head) +420 956 765 227 Head: Jacek Jakub Langer +48 22 538 62 65
Marek Dongres +420 956 765 218 Tomasz Galanciak +48 22 538 62 12
Jan Safranek +420 956 765 218 Przemyslav Nowosad +48 22 538 62 66
Stepien Grzegorz +48 22 538 62 11
Hungary Wysocki Wojciech +48 22 538 62 17
József Miró (Head) +361 235 5131 Croatia
András Nagy +361 235 5132 Damir Eror +385 (0)72 37 2836
Tamás Pletser, CFA +361 235 5135 Hungary
Nandori Levente + 36 1 23 55 141
Poland Krisztian Kandik + 36 1 23 55 162
Tomasz Duda (Head) +48 22 330 6253 Balasz Zankay + 36 1 23 55 156
Cezary Bernatek +48 22 538 6256 Romania
Konrad Grygo +48 22 330 6254 Liviu Avram +40 3735 16569
Emil Poplawski +48 22 330 6252
Marcin Gornik +48 22 330 6251 Group Fixed Income Securities Markets
Head: Goran Hoblaj +43 (0)50100 84403
Romania
Caius Rapanu +40 3735 10441 FISM Flow
Head: Aleksandar Doric +43 (0)5 0100 87487
Margit Hraschek +43 (0)5 0100 84117
Group Markets Christian Kienesberger +43 (0)5 0100 84323
Ciprian Mitu +43 (0)5 0100 85612
Head of Group Markets Bernd Thaler +43 (0)5 0100 84119
Oswald Huber +43 (0)5 0100 84901 Zsuzsanna Toth +36-1-237 8209
Poland:
Group Markets Retail and Agency Business Pawel Kielek +48 22 538 6223
Head: Christian Reiss +43 (0)5 0100 84012
Michal Jarmakowicz +43 50100 85611
Markets Retail Sales AT
Head: Markus Kaller +43 (0)5 0100 84239 Group Fixed Income Securities Trading
Head: Goran Hoblaj +43 (0)50100 84403
Group Markets Execution
Head: Kurt Gerhold +43 (0)5 0100 84232 Group Equity Trading & Structuring
Head: Ronald Nemec +43 (0)50100 83011
Retail & Sparkassen Sales
Head: Uwe Kolar +43 (0)5 0100 83214 Business Support
Bettina Mahoric +43 (0)50100 86441

CEE Macro & FI Research Page 11

Erste Group Research
Special Report | CEE | Economy
8. March 2021

Disclaimer

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CEE Macro & FI Research Page 12