MODULE 5

MODULE IN PROBABILITY

[Discussions on some of the topics in this module are based from my notes when I take my Master of
Statistics in UP Diliman and my PhD in Social Science Research in Leyte Normal University. Others were
based from my personal knowledge and experience when dealing with the situation that requires my
personal decision and from my readings and researches from different references which I also
mentioned and acknowledged in this material. Some authors and books are mention in this material for
the students to take a look for further readings and references.]

PROBABILTY

We will start our discussion by defining some statistical terms that are often used when dealing with
this topic.

An experiment is the process of making an observation.

A sample space denoted by S, is a set of points corresponding to all distinctly different possible
outcomes of an experiment.

Ex.1: in dice-rolling experiment - a dice has six faces usually numbered 1 to 6. When you roll a
dice one of this numbers will come out and there are six possible outcomes of this experiment.
The sample space of this experiment is:

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Ex.2: in tossing two coins – both coins may turn up heads or the first coin may turn up head and
the second coin may turn up tail, or the first coin may turn up tail the second coin may turn up
head or maybe both coins may turn up tails. So there are four possible outcomes of this
experiment and the sample space is:

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

A sample point is a single point in a sample space S. Each point corresponds to a particular single
outcome. There are six different sample points in the dice rolling experiment and four sample points in
coin tossing experiment.

There are two types of sample space, the discrete and continuous sample space.

A discrete sample space is one that contains a finite number or countable infinity of sample
points.

A continuous sample space is a sample space consisting of a set of real numbers that contains at
least one interval.
 The easiest way to determine whether the sample space is discrete or continuous is to take a
look at the different possible acceptable values of the variable. Let us say that you want to open
a canteen in a particular site. You may conduct a simple feasibility study to determine if your
business will attract customers in that site in order to protect your investment. Let us say that
you are planning to operate from 8 o’clock in the morning to 8 o’clock in the evening. You may
be counting the number of people passing through the area from 8 o’clock in the morning to 8
o’clock in the evening. The variable in this experiment is the total number of people passing the
area and all the possible of this variable is an integer. The type of sample space in this
experiment is discrete since all possible values of this experiment is an integer. It is not
acceptable to have a value of say 502 ½ because there is no person which will be counted as ½.

If you conduct the same feasibility study but instead of counting the people passing through the
area, you will be counting the time in minutes for 10 people to pass through the area. Your
variable could take any acceptable non-integer value. You could have a value of your variable as
3.65 minutes. The sample space in this experiment is continuous since it could take values that
are non-integers or decimal and fractional numbers.

Random Variable – a variable whose value is determined by the outcome of an experiment in which the
outcome is subject to chance. In other words, each possible value of a random variable is associated
with a particular probability of occurrence.

Notation:

Random variable is usually represented by capital letters [ X, Y, etc.] the particular value of the
variable is represented by small letters.

Example 1: The value of a random variable might depend on the tossing of two coins.

Let X be number of heads

S = { HH, HT, TH, TT}

The possible values of x are 0, 1,& 2.

Example 2: Three women were asked their opinion on a proposal.

Let Y be the number of women who favored the said proposal

S = { FFF, FFN, FNF, FNN, NFF, NFN, NNF, NNN }

The possible values of y are 0, 1, 2 & 3.

Kinds of Random Variable

1. Discrete Random Variables – take on as many values as there are whole numbers, usually
represent count data.
Example: Number of students who passed an exam.

2. Continuous Random variables – take on an infinite number of points on a line segment, usually
represent measured data.
Example: Weight of laundry soap; length of time to finish a job

Independence and Dependence

Two variables are dependent if information concerning one of them would alter the
probabilities relating to the other.

The random variable X1 , is independent of the random variables X2, . . . , Xn if the probability
that X1 will take on any value is completely unaffected by the particular values assumed by X2, . . . , Xn .

Let us now discuss the first simple theorem in probability.

Theorem: If a selection consists of two steps, the first can be made in m ways and for each of these the
second can be made in n ways, then the whole selection could be made in m.n ways.

Example: let us say that you want to buy a new blouse or a new shirt and you were made to
choose from three different sizes and four different colors.

There are two different steps in choosing for the shirt that you want to buy, choosing for the
size and choosing for the colors. There are three different ways in choosing for the size and four
different ways in choosing for the colors. So the number of choices in the first step n=3 and the
number of choices in the second step m=4. So the total number of possible ways or the total
number of choices in this experiment is 3x4 = 12.

Proof:

Let us say that the different sizes that you were made to choose from are small, medium and
large (S, M, L) while the four different colors that you were made to choose from are red,
yellow, blue and white (R, Y, B, W). Your possible choices could be:

SR SY SB SW MR MY MB MW LR LY LB LW : (12 choices in all)

Further study of this theorem shows that it is not just limited to two steps but could be used for more
steps and leads to the extension of this theorem.
Extension of the theorem:

If a selection consists of k steps, the first can be made in n1 ways, for each of these the second
can be made in n2 ways, . . . , and for each of these, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the
whole selection can be made in n1 .n2 . . .nk ways.

Example 1:

There are four elevators in a building. In how many ways can 4 men choose an elevator?

Solution:

This problem might be confusing to beginners dealing with probability. This could be interpreted
that the selection consists of two steps which is an application of the original theorem. The first
step is choosing an elevator and the second step is choosing the person who will take the
elevator. But take note that are four persons who will choose an elevator and each person has
four choices. Each person has their own corresponding choices. The selection actually consists of
four steps. The first step is the total number of choices for the first person, the second step is
the number of choices for the second person, the third step is the number of choices for the
third person and the fourth step is the number of choices the fourth person. So the selection has
four steps; the first could be made in 4 ways, the second could be made in 4 ways, the third
could be made in 4 ways and the fourth could be made in 4 ways. The entire selection could be
made in 4x4x4x4 = 256 different ways which is an application of the extension of the theorem.

Example 2:

There are four elevators in a building. In how many ways can 4 bellboys be assigned to these
elevators?

Solution:

This problem is just similar to example 1. The only difference between the two is that, each of
the four persons has four choices in the first example. In this second example, the first bellboy
has four possible assignments because he could be assigned to any of these four elevators. The
second bellboy has just three possible assignments because he will not be assigned to the
elevator where the first bellboy has been assigned. The third bellboy has just two possible
assignments while the last bellboy has just one remaining possible assignment. So these four
bellboys could be assigned in 4x3x2x1 = 24 different ways.

Let us now discuss the two other possible types of problems that you may encounter in probability, the
permutations and combination.
Permutations

An ordered arrangement of n objects is a called a permutation of those objects. We denote by

nPr the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time and:

!
nPr =( )!

Combination

Combination of objects is merely a collection of objects with no definite arrangement.

!
nCr = ( )! !

Example 1:

Consider these numbers:

127 172 217 271 712 721

An ordered arrangement of these numbers 1, 2 and 7 is a permutation. So there are six different
permutations of these numbers considering 127 different to other numbers in the set. But if we talk
about combination, there is only one combination of numbers here, the combination of numbers 1, 2
and 7. The set of numbers 1, 2 and 7 is just the same combination of numbers 1, 7 and2; the same
combination of numbers 2, 1 and 7; the same combination of numbers 2, 1 and 7; the same
combination of numbers 2, 7 and 1; the same combination of numbers 7, 1 and 2 and the same
combination of numbers 7, 1 and2. It consists of the same elements, the numbers 1, 2 and 7.

Using the formula in computing the number of combinations and permutations:

n = 3 (there are three different numbers to choose from); r = 3 (we take three numbers at a
time)

The number of permutations of three, taken three at a time:

! ! !
3P3 = = = = =6
( )! ( )! ( )!

The number of combinations of three, taken three at a time:

! !
3C3 = = = = =1
( )! ! ( )! ! ( )! ( )
Example 2:

Two-letter non-sense words are to be formed from letters a, e, I, o, and u.

A) How many different words could be formed?

B) How many different words could be formed if no letter will be repeatedly used?

C) How many combinations of two letters are there?

Solution: you will encounter here three possible scenarios in dealing with this example.

A) (The first scenario): Forming two letter non-sense words consists of two steps. The first step
is choosing the first letter and the second step is choosing for the second letter. The
selection consist of two steps, the first could be made in 5 different ways considering each
letter as the steps or the different choices. The second step could also be made in 5
different ways or 5 different choices. Using the first theorem in probability:

Total number of possible non-sense words = 5 x 5 =25

There are 25 different non-sense words that can be formed from these letters.

B) (The second scenario): Forming two letter non-sense words if no letter will be repeatedly
used consists also of two steps. The first step is choosing for the first letter and the second
step is choosing for the second letter. The first step could be made in 5 different ways while
the second step could be made in 4 different ways since the first choice is eliminated to be
the second choice.
Total number of possible non-sense words if no letter will be repeatedly used = 5 x 4 = 20.
There are 20 different non-sense words that can be formed if no letter will be repeatedly
used.

C) (The third scenario): The number of combinations of two letters out of these five letters a, e,
I, o and u; n = 5, r = 2

!
nCr = ( )! !

! !
5C2 = =( =( = 10
( )! ! )! ! )
Proof:

These are the 25 possible non-sense words that could be formed from these five letters a, e, i, o and u:

aa ea ia oa ua

ae ee ie oe ue

ai ei ii oi ui

ao eo io oo uo

au eu iu ou uu

Out of these 25 non-sense words, 20 words have no letter repeated used and these are:

ae ea ia oa ua

ai ei ie oe ue

ae eo io oi ui

au eu iu ou uo

Take note that we consider ea different from ea and this situation could be considered different
arrangement of two letters or a permutation of two letters. This problem therefore could be solve using
the permutation formula with n = 5 and r = 2.
! !
5P2 = = = = 20
( )! ( )!

Permutation problems could be solved using the theorem. If the first choice is eliminated to be the
second choice, the second choice is eliminated to be the third choice and so on, it is an indication that it
is a permutation problem and could be solve using the permutation formula.

If we are talking about combination, we will consider ae the same or one combination as ea.

ae ea ia oa ua

ai ei ie oe ue

ao eo io oi ui

au eu iu ou uo

So these are the possible combinations in this problem:

ae ai ao au ei eo eu io iu ou
Odds and Probabilities

We now discuss odds and probabilities by discussing first the difference between possibilities and
probabilities. You are very much familiar with these two terms and in fact you are using these already. I
will just give you a short and simple idea about the difference between the two. Anything that may
happen is possible, otherwise it is impossible. But when you use the word probable, there must be a fact
to support the argument. Is it possible that all of you enrolled in this course will get a grade 1.0? Yes, it is
possible because 1.0 is within our grading system. But is it probable? We now have to see the scores or
the records of your performance before we could say that it is probable. Now I hope that you get the
idea regarding the difference between these two terms and will be more careful in using these.

Probability:

If there are equally likely possibilities one of which must occur and s are regarded as favorable
or a “success”, then the probability of a success is given by the ratio s/n.

We let n be the total number of possible ways and s is the number of chances of success.

The probability of success Ps = ; and if there is a probability of success there is also a probability
of failure and the probability of failure Pf = . Take note also that s + f = n, the chances of success
plus the chances of failure is equal to the total number of possible ways.

So if you add the probability of success plus the probability of failure:

Ps + Pf

+ = = = 1 and you could change this to percent equal to 100%. You could see that
the probability of success plus the probability for failure is always equal to 100%. If somebody tells you
that he is 101 % sure, he is lying and you are 100% sure of that.

Odds:

If the probability of an event is P, and P is not equal to 0 or 1, then the odds for its occurrence
are P to 1-P and the odds against its occurrence are 1-P to P.

Note that Ps = , pf = and

Ps + Pf = 1

Ps = 1 - Pf and Pf = 1 – Ps

Oddss = = ; odds of success is equal to the probability of success to the probability for
failure; likewise odds of failure is equal to probability for failure to the probability of success:

Oddsf = =
 /
Also, oddss = = = ; odds could also be expressed in terms of chances. The odds of success is
/
equal to the chances of success to the chances for failure while the odds for failure is equal to the
/
chances for failure to the chances of success; oddsf = = =
/

Example 1: let us say that you have a patient in a hospital and you ask the doctor, “ Doc, what is the
probability that my patient will survive” and the doctors answers 50/50. The correct interpretation
of the figure given by the doctor in statistics and probability is that, the patient will survive 100%
sure. Out of the 50 total number of possible ways (n = 50), the chance for your patient to survive is
also 50 (s = 50). But if the interpretation of the doctor is that, he is giving 50% chance that the
patient will survive and another 50% chance that the patient will die, the doctor did not answer
correctly your question. He did not give you the probability but instead he gave you the odds that
the patient will survive.

You have to be careful in asking this question to a doctor because out of your anxiety, you may ask
the doctor “ Doc, What is the probability that my patient will die” and the doctor answers 50/50 not
knowing that what he give is an odd and not a probability.

Figures in fraction, probability and odds are sometimes written similarly:

Fraction : ¾ means one whole is divided into 4 parts and you are taking 3 parts of it and you read ¾
as a fraction as three over four or three fourth.

Probability : ¾ means out of 4 possible ways, the chances of success is 3. You read ¾ as three out of
four if you are talking about probability.

Odds: ¾ means the chances for success is 3 while the chances for failure is 4. You read ¾ as three to
four if you are talking about odds.

I would like to recommend that you avoid using the fractional figure in expressing odds and
probabilities but instead use the statement to express this figure.

Example 2:

The odds are 16 to 9 that an executive trainee will remain with a banking firm for at least two
years. What is the probability that one of these trainees will stay with the firm for at least two
years?

Solution:

S = 16

f=9

n = 25
 Ps = = = 0.64 = 64%

Example 3:

A bowl contains 17 red beads, 10 white beads, 20 blue beads and 3 black beads. If one of these
beads is drawn at random, what are probabilities that it will be

A. red?

B. blue or white?

C. neither black nor white?

Solution:

Red = 17

White = 10

Blue = 20

Black = 3

Total =50

A) Pred = = 0.34 = 34%

B) Pblue or white = = = 0.60 = 60%

C) Pneither black nor white = = = 0.74 = 74%

References:
1. Freund, John E., Williams, Frank J.; Business statistics
2. Ronald E. Walpole (1974); Introduction to Statistics: Third Edition; EDCA Publishing &
Distributing Corporation, Quezon City
3. Ronald E. Walpole, Raymond H. Myers, Sharon L. Myers (1998); Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientists: sixth edition; Prentice Hall International, Inc.
 GUIDED EXERCISES IN PROBABILTY

Fill the blanks of this guided exercise with the correct figures, words, phrases or sentences, write
your name in every page and scan it together with your solution of the exercises given at the
end of this material. Send these materials through email to robbiecapon@gmail.com.

PROBABILTY

We will start our discussion by defining some statistical terms that are often used when dealing with
this topic.

An _______1______ is the process of making an observation.

A ______2______ denoted by S, is a set of points corresponding to all distinctly different possible

outcomes of an experiment.

Ex.1: in dice-rolling experiment - a dice has six faces usually numbered 1 to six. When you roll a
dice one of this numbers will come out and there are six possible outcomes of this experiment.
The sample space of this experiment is:

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Ex.2: in tossing two coins – both coins may turn up heads or the first coin may turn up head and
the second coin may turn up tail, or the first coin may turn up tail the second coin may turn up
head or maybe both coins may turn up tails. So there are four possible outcomes of this
experiment and the sample space is:

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

A ______3_____ is a single point in a sample space S. Each point corresponds to a particular

single outcome. There are six different sample points in the dice rolling experiment and four sample
points in coin tossing experiment.

There are two types of sample space, the discrete and continuous sample space.

A ___________4__________ is one that contains a finite number or countable infinity of sample

points.

A ______________5___________ is a sample space consisting of a set of real numbers that

contain at least one interval.

The easiest way to determine whether the sample space is discrete or continuous is to take a
look at the different possible acceptable values of the variable. Let us say that you want to open
a canteen in a particular site. You may conduct a simple feasibility study to determine if your
business will attract customers in that site in order to protect your investment. Let us say that
 you are planning to operate from 8 o’clock in the morning to 8 o’clock in the evening. You may
be counting the number of people passing through the area from 8 o’clock in the morning to 8
o’clock in the evening. The variable in this experiment is the total number of people passing the
area and all the possible of this variable is an integer. The type of sample space in this
experiment is discrete since all possible values of this experiment is an integer. It is not
acceptable to have a value of say 502 ½ because there is no person which will be counted as ½.

If you conduct the same feasibility study but instead of counting the people passing through the
area, you will be counting the time in minutes for 10 people to pass through the area. Your
variable could take any acceptable non-integer value. You could have a value of your variable as
3.65 minutes. The sample space in this experiment is continuous since it could take values that
are non-integers or decimal and fractional numbers.

______6______ Variable – a variable whose value is determined by the outcome of an experiment in

which the outcome is subject to chance. In other words, each possible value of a random variable is
associated with a particular probability of occurrence.

Notation:

Random variable is usually represented by capital letters [ X, Y, etc.] the particular value of the
variable is represented by small letters.

Example 1: The value of a random variable might depend on the tossing of two coins.

Let X be number of heads

S = { HH, HT, TH, TT}

The possible values of x are 0, 1,& 2.

Example 2: Three women were asked their opinion on a proposal.

Let Y be the number of women who favored the said proposal

S = { FFF, FFN, FNF, FNN, NFF, NFN, NNF, NNN }

The possible values of y are 0, 1, 2 & 3.

Kinds of Random Variable

3. ______7_____ Random Variables – take on as many values as there are whole numbers, usually
represent count data.
Example: Number of students who passed an exam.
 4. Continuous Random variables – take on an infinite number of points on a line segment, usually
represent ______8______ data.
Example: Weight of bottled water; length of time a light bulb burns

Independence and Dependence

Two variables are dependent if information concerning one of them would alter the
probabilities relating to the other.

The random variable X1 , is independent of the random variables X2, . . . , Xn if the probability
that X1 will take on any value is completely unaffected by the particular values assumed by X2, . . . , Xn .

Let us now discuss the first simple theorem in probability.

Theorem: If a selection consists of two steps, the first can be made in m ways and for each of these the
second can be made in n ways, then the whole selection could be made in ____9____ ways.

Example: let us say that you want to buy a new blouse or a new shirt and you were made to
choose from three different sizes and four different colors.

There are two different steps in choosing for the shirt that you want to buy, choosing for the
size and choosing for the colors. There are three different ways in choosing for the size and four
different ways in choosing for the colors. So the number of choices in the first step n=3 and the
number of choices in the second step m=4. So the total number of possible ways or the total
number of choices in this experiment is 3x4 = 12.

Proof:

Let us say that the different sizes that you were made to choose from are small, medium and
large (S, M, L) while the four different colors that you were made to choose from are red,
yellow, blue and white (R, Y, B, W). Your possible choices could be:

SR SY SB SW MR MY MB MW LR LY LB LW : (12 choices in all)

Further study of this theorem shows that it is not just limited to two steps but could be used for more
steps and leads to the extension of this theorem.

Extension of the theorem:

If a selection consists of k steps, the first can be made in n1 ways, for each of these the second
can be made in n2 ways, . . . , and for each of these, the kth can be made in nk ways, then the
whole selection can be made in ________10_____ ways.
 Example 1:

There are four elevators in a building. In how many ways can 4 men choose an elevator?

Solution:

This problem might be confusing to beginners dealing with probability. This could be interpreted
that the selection consists of two steps which is an application of the original theorem. The first
step is choosing an elevator and the second step is choosing the person who will take the
elevator. But take note that are four persons who will choose an elevator and each person has
four choices. Each person has their own corresponding choices. The selection actually consists of
four steps. The first step is the total number of choices for the first person, the second step is
the number of choices for the second person, the third step is the number of choices for the
third person and the fourth step is the number of choices the fourth person. So the selection has
four steps; the first could be made in 4 ways, the second could be made in 4 ways, the third
could be made in 4 ways and the fourth could be made in for ways. The entire selection could
be made in 4x4x4x4 = 256 different ways which is an application of the extension of the
theorem.

Example 2:

There are four elevators in a building. In how many ways can 4 bellboys be assigned to these
elevators?

Solution:

This problem is just similar to example 1. The only difference between the two is that, each of
the four persons has four choices in the first example. In this second example, the first bellboy
has four possible assignments because he could be assigned to any of these four elevators. The
second bellboy has just three possible assignments because he will not be assigned to the
elevator where the first bellboy has been assigned. The third bellboy has just two possible
assignments while the last bellboy has just one remaining possible assignment. So these four
bellboys could be assigned in 4x3x2x1 = 24 different ways.

Let us now discuss the two other possible types of problems that you may encounter in probability, the
permutations and combination.

Permutations

An ___________11____________ of n objects is a called a permutation of those objects. We

denote by nPr the number of permutations of n things taken r at a time and:
!
nPr =( )!
Combination

Combination of objects is merely a ______12_______ of objects with no definite arrangement.

!
nCr = ( )! !

Example 1:

Consider these numbers:

127 172 217 271 712 721

An ordered arrangement of these numbers 1, 2 and 7 is a permutation. So there are six different
permutations of these numbers considering 127 different to other numbers in the set. But if we talk
about combination, there is only one combination of numbers here, the combination of numbers 1, 2
and 7. The set of numbers 1, 2 and 7 is just the same combination of numbers 1, 7 and2; the same
combination of numbers 2, 1 and 7; the same combination of numbers 2, 1 and 7; the same
combination of numbers 2, 7 and 1; the same combination of numbers 7, 1 and 2 and the same
combination of numbers 7, 1 and2. It consists of the same elements, the numbers 1, 2 and 7.

Using the formula in computing the number of combinations and permutations:

n = 3 (there are three different numbers to choose from); r = 3 (we take three numbers at a
time)

The number of permutations of three, taken three at a time:

! ! !
3P3 = = = = =6
( )! ( )! ( )!

The number of combinations of three numbers, taken three at a time:

! !
3C3 = = = = =1
( )! ! ( )! ! ( )! ( )

Example 2:

Two-letter non-sense words are to be formed from letters a, e, I, o, and u.

A) How many different words could be formed?

B) How many different words could be formed if no letter will be repeatedly used?

C) How many combinations of two letters are there?

Solution: you will encounter here three possible scenarios in dealing with this example.

A) (The first scenario): Forming two letter non-sense words consists of two steps. The first step is
choosing the first letter and the second step is choosing for the second letter. The selection
consist of two steps, the first could be made in 5 different ways considering each letter as the
steps or the different choices. The second step could also be made in 5 different ways. Using the
first theorem in probability:

Total number of possible non-sense words = 5 x 5 =25

There are 25 different non-sense words that can be formed from these letters.

B) (The second scenario): Forming two letter non-sense words if no letter will be repeatedly used
consists also of two steps. The first step is choosing for the first letter and the second step is
choosing for the second letter. The first step could be made in 5 different ways while the second
step could be made in 4 different ways since the first choice is eliminated to be the second
choice.

Total number of possible non-sense words if no letter will be repeatedly used = 5 x 4 = 20.

There are 20 different non-words that can be formed if no letter will be repeatedly used.

C) (The third scenario): The number of combinations of two letters out of these five letters a, e, I, o
and u; n = 5, r = 2

!
nCr = ( )! !

! !
5C2 = =( =( = 10
( )! ! )! ! )

Proof:

These are the 25 possible non-sense words that could be formed from these five letters a, e, i, o and u:

aa ea ia oa ua

ae ee ie oe ue

ai ei ii oi ui

ao eo io oo uo

au eu iu ou uu

Out of these 25 non-sense words, 20 words have no letter repeated and these are:

ae ea ia oa ua
 ai ei ie oe ue

ae eo io oi ui

au eu iu ou uo

Take note that we consider ea different from ea and this situation could be considered different
arrangement of two letters or a permutation of two letters. This problem therefore could be solve using
the permutation formula with n = 5 and r = 2.
! !
5P2 = = = = 20
( )! ( )!

Permutation problems could be solved using the theorem. If the first choice is eliminated to be the
second choice, the second choice is eliminated to be the third choice and so on, it is an indication that it
is a permutation problem and could be solve using the permutation formula.

If we are talking about combination, we will consider ae the same or one combination as ea.

ae ea ia oa ua

ai ei ie oe ue

ao eo io oi ui

au eu iu ou uo

So these are the possible combinations in this problem:

ae ai ao au ei eo eu io iu ou

We now discuss odds and probabilities by discussing first the difference between possibilities and
probabilities. You are very much familiar with these two terms and in fact you are using these already. I
will just give you a short and simple idea about the difference between the two. Anything that may
happen is possible, otherwise it is impossible. But when you use the word probable, there must be a
______13_____ to support the argument. Is it possible that all of you enrolled in this course will get a
grade 1.0? Yes, it is possible because 1.0 is within our grading system. But is it probable? We now have
to see the scores or the records of your performance before we could say that it is probable. Now I hope
that you get the idea regarding the difference between these two terms and will be more careful in
using these.

Probability:

If there are equally likely possibilities one of which must occur and s are regarded as favorable
or a “success”, then the probability of a success is given by the ratio s/n.
 We let n be the total number of possible ways and s is the number of chances of success.

The probability of success Ps = ; and if there is a probability of success there is also a probability
of failure and the probability of failure Pf = ___14___. Take note also that s + f = n, the chances
of success plus the chances of failure is equal to the total number of possible ways.

So if you add the probability of success plus the probability of failure:

Ps + Pf

+ = = = 1 and you could change this to percent equal to 100%. You could see that
the probability of success plus the probability for failure is always equal to ____15____. If somebody
tells you that he is 101 % sure, he is lying and you are 100% sure of that.

Odds:

If the probability of an event is P, and P is not equal to 0 or 1, then the odds for its occurrence
are P to 1-P and the odds against its occurrence are 1-P to P.

Note that Ps = , pf = and

Ps + Pf = 1

Ps = 1 - Pf and Pf = 1 – Ps

Oddss = = ; odds of success is equal to the probability of success to the probability for
failure; likewise

Oddsf = = ; odds for failure is equal to the probability for failure to the probability of
success
/
Also, oddss = = = ; odds could also be expressed in terms of chances. The odds of success is
/
equal to the chances of success to the chances for failure while the odds for failure is equal to the
chances for failure to the chances of success; oddsf =

Example 1: let us say that you have a patient in a hospital and you ask the doctor, “ Doc, what is the
probability that my patient will survive” and the doctors answers 50/50. The correct interpretation
of the figure given by the doctor in statistics and probability is that, the patient will survive 100%
sure. Out of the 50 total number of possible ways (n = 50), the chance for your patient to survive is
also 50 (s = 50). But if the interpretation of the doctor is that, he is giving 50% chance that the
patient will survive and another 50% chance that the patient will die, the doctor did not answer
 correctly your question. He did not give you the probability but instead he gave you the odds that
the patient will survive.

You have to be careful in asking this question to a doctor because out of your anxiety, you may ask
the doctor “ Doc, What is the probability that my patient will die” and the doctor answers 50/50 not
knowing that what he give is an odd and not a probability.

Figures in fraction, probability and odds are sometimes written similarly:

Fraction : ¾ means one whole is divided into 4 parts and you are taking 3 parts of it and you read ¾
as a fraction as three over four or three fourth.

Probability : ¾ means out of 4 possible ways, the chances of success is 3. You read ¾ as three out of
four if you are talking about probability.

Odds: ¾ means the chances for success is 3 while the chances for failure is 4. You read ¾ as three to
four if you are talking about odds.

I would like to recommend that you avoid using the fractional figure in expressing odds and
probabilities but instead use the ______16_____ to express this figure.

Example 2:

The odds are 16 to 9 that an executive trainee will remain with a banking firm for at least two
years. What is the probability that one of these trainees will stay with the firm for at least two
years?

Solution:

S = 16

f=9

n = 25

Ps = = = 0.64 = 64%

Example 3:

A bowl contains 17 red beads, 10 white beads, 20 blue beads and 3 black beads. If one of these
beads is drawn at random, what are probabilities that it will be
 A. red?

B. blue or white?

C. neither black nor white?

Solution:

Red = 17

White = 10

Blue = 20

Black = 3

Total =50

Pred = = 0.34 = 34%

Pblue or white = = = 0.60 = 60%

Pneither black nor white = = = 0.74 = 74%

Exercises:

1) In how many ways can 2 persons be chosen from a group of 5 persons?

2) In how many ways can a first prize, a second prize, and a third prize be awarded to 8
contestants?

3) In how many ways can 4 girls and 4 boys be seated in row of 8 chairs if:

A. they are to be seated anywhere?

B. the boys and the girls are to be seated alternately?

4) From a group of 7 men and 8 women, how many committees can be formed consisting of 2
men and 3 women?

5) The probability that a certain shipment will arrive on time is seven out of ten. What are the
odds that it will not arrive on time?

6) Three coins are tossed. What is the probability that exactly two coins will turn up tails?

7) A three digit number is to be formed from numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. What is the probability
that the number formed is an even number?