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Adv. Space Res. Vol. II. No.3. pp. (3)55—(3)60.

1991
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POSSIBLE CAUSES OF ENHANCED


GREENHOUSE EFFECT AS DUE
TO NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC
PHENOMENA
V. Bucha
Geomagnetic Department, Geophysical Institute, Czechoslovak Academy
of Sciences, Bo~n(II, 141 31 Prague 4, Czechoslovakia

ABSTRACF
The increase in solar (geomagnetic) activity, in global-mean air temperature at the surface of the
earth as well as in CO2 concentration during the past 100 years were studied with the aim to
distinguish between the anthropogenic effect and natural climatic fluctuations influencing biological
systems. The short-term fluctuations in geomagnetic activity connected with the solar cycle influence
processes in the auroral oval which modulate the alternation of the meridional and zonal type of
atmospheric circulation and temperature changes. The variation of the eccentricity of the earth’s or-
bit with a period of about 100,000 years and the precession of the earth’s axis with a period of 16-
30,000 years seem to influence the changes in the earth’s magnetic field through the processes in the
earth’s interior.Movements of the geom etic pole as a centre of the auroral oval influence the
s of the auroral oval and thus participate in long-term changes of climate including glacial-
interglacial periods.
INTRODUCTION
The greenhouse gases, primarily water vapour and carbon dioxide play a crucial role in regulating
the temperature of the earth and the earth’s atmosphere. In the absence of these gases, the average
surface temperature would be 33 degree Celsius colder. However, there is now concern that tropo-
spheric temperatures will rise further due to many human activities steadily increasing concentra-
tions of the various greenhouse gases /1/. In order to consider the increase in the atmospheric car-
bon dioxide and possible consequences for the earth’s climate in the proper perspective, one must
first recognize a fact that climate is a dynamic regime subject to natural variations on all timescales,
from years to millenia, as well as possible alteration by human activities. The Antarctic air tempe-
rature and the CO2 concentration rise and fall together. The rises of CO2 (by 100 ppm) and tern-
peratwe (by 10 degrees) 15,000 and 140,000 years ago are remarkable. We do not know the
processes by which the terrestrial biosphere or the ocean have caused this change in CO2 concen-
tration but we know that worldwide cold glacial climate could not have existed without the weake-
ning of the greenhouse effect caused by the reduction in the amount of atmospheric CO2 /1/.
Quasi-periodic variations of glacial and interglacial ages which have occurred at about 100,000 year
intervals over the past two or three million years are related to changes in the orbital parameters of
the earth. A small change in the solar radiation flux (0.2%) caused by the recurrent variation of the
eccentricity of the earth’s elliptical orbit around the sun must be considerably amplified by the earth
climate system in order to induce such profound changes in climatic conditions as occurred in the
transition to an ice ave. It may be that the climate does not respond in a simple or linear way to
orbital forcing. The climate system may have its own internal response that in some way emphasizes
the 100,000 year time scale /2/. Changes in carbon dioxide concentration are believed to be one of
the main factors which influenced and influence the temperature fluctuations on the globe; high
concentration of CO2 was at the time of interglacials apd low CO2 during ice ages. it is, however,
also possible that changes in the orbit of the Earth, changes in the geomagnetic field and the solar
activity influenced global temperature. Its increase could then lead to changes in the CO2 concen-
tration because all these phenomena show very similar quasi-periodic variations of about 100,000;
25,000; 2,000 and 200 years.
(3)55
(3)56 V. Bucha

NATURAL VARIABILITY OF CLIMATESYSTEM AND THE SOLAR


CYCLE
There is no doubt that the human activity, especially during the past 40 years, negatively influenced
living conditions on our planet. Our task is to distinguish between anthropogenic effects in the at-
mosphere and natural processes, especially climatic fluctuations influencing biological systems. As
can be seen in Figure 1, the long-term increase in global temperature during the past 100 years
(curve b) is in a relatively good coincidence with the increase in geomagnetic (corpuscular) activity
(curve a). That’s why we can conclude that it could have been the increase in global- mean surface
air temperature, due to the processes occurring in the auroral oval under enhanced corpuscular
radiation /3/ which led to an increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in the past.
The record of global-mean surface air temperatures during the past century,however, indicates not
only a noticeable warming of the earth’s surface but also ongoing climatic fluctuations of compa-
rable amplitude which do not constitute a long-term trend and must be ascribed to the natural va-
riabilityof the atmosphere-ocean-ice system /1/.
While both geomagnetic activity curve (a) and .~ 1,
temperature curve (b) show long-term increase since
1880, the short-term fluctuations are in antiphase ~o
between 1880-1930 and in phase between 1935-1985.
Similar twofold phase change was found for the mean ~
, .

annual temperatures in England from 1837 to 1963 b


/4/ or for changes in correlating sunspot cycles with io
rainfall fluctuations /5/. Can the correlation reversals
be explained?
There is an other attitude in explaining the fluctuations
of climate, i. e. the effect of solar activity. While many ~ )20•

positive correlations between solar variations and


climate changes are impressive, this subject remains
--

--—-k +
controversial because they switched in some cases . . —.— 4 ________

abruptly to anticorrelation. This çasted doubt on all 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
such correlations. That’s whysuch physical mechanism Fig. la/ Changes in geomagnetic
has to be found and proved by which small changes in activity (aa indices) five year -

solar energy input can govern the large energy stored gjiding averages.
in the Earth’s weather system. Only then are we able 6/ Global surface air
to explain causes of the glacial-interglacial cycles in the temperature change (five year
late Quaternary and other longterm fluctuations when running mean) lir the past
we succeed in elucidating natural meteorological century, with zero point defined
variations on short timescales, from years to several as the 1951-1980 mean
days and in answering all objections against Sun- (Hansen).
weather relations/3/. c/ Changes in the atmospheric
CO2 concentration, observed
Solar protons constitute the principal component of increase in atmospheric C02,
the “solar corpuscular streams” emitted from regions resulting in part from human
of flare activity and from M-regions (coronal holes) activities.
which exhibit a 27-day recurrence tendency /6/. The
precipitating electrons may affect the lower atmosphere through the production of the secondary
bremsstrahlung X-rays which can penetrate down to lower depths; that’s why they must be
considered as a factor influencing the acceleration processes.
The entry of solar protons into the atmosphere is principally a high-latitude phenomenon.
Maximum entry of solar protons occurs in the vicinity of the auroral oval, and the cutoil latitude lies
equatorward of the oval. Ionization enhancements due to solar protons may be manifest at altitudes
down to and perhaps below 10 km height.
According to Wulf /7/ and Ejgenson /8/, the increase in solar activity acts on the enhancement of
the electron concentration and of temperature in the ionosphere. This can lead to the streoghtening
of circulation at the region of “upper tropopause” at altitudes around 80 km. Prevailing winds here,
however, have a sign opposite to that in the lower tropopause. Then, the enhanced flow velocity in
the upper tropopause would, under the existence of the vertical cell of circulation, contribute to the
acceleration of the flow velocity in the troposphere, i.e. the zonal flow in the troposphere would be
Causes of Enhanced Greenhouse Effect (3)57

intensified. Hines /9/ hypothesized that a sun-weather relationship could arise via planetary waves.
He proposed that upwards propagating planetary waves might have their reflection characteristics
altered in the upper atmosphere by solar disturbances modifying the atmospheric circulation at
these levels. The reflected waves could then interact differentlywith their tropospheric sources thus
providing the required mechanistic link. Optimal conditions for such interactions would exist at
middle and high latitudes in winter /10/.
Cip
___ A A
• \~‘\J\>‘ I

Jakobshavn

:~
S
h ~

Wollo-WoRo
~~vA’~~ ~ .1

:~“—~~
$~SO ~ ~ $70 — —A~,~-ET
1950 1 wi9~
101 440 m 341
v 440 l S BT
Fig. 2 Changes in geomagnetic activity (Cj indices averages for months November, December,
January, February) and in temperature foI Prague and Oslo showing positive correlation and for
-

Jakobshavn (Greenland) and Walla-Walla (Washington) showing negative correlation with


geomagnetic activity. Meridional type of circulation r.h.s. top, zonal type r.h.s. bottom.
- -

As shown earlier /11/ meridional atmospheric circulation prevailed in the northern hemisphere
during several winter periods but zonal flow can persist during some other winter periods. The rea-
son for this peculiar behavior are the processes which take place along the auroral oval at the time
of enhanced corpuscular activity, characterized by the penetration of energetic particles and
bremsstrahlung as far as the lower stratosphere. They stren~htenthe zonal atmosphericflow which
results in direct increases of temperature andpressure even in the troposphere /11/.
At the time of low geomagnetic (corpuscular) activity meridional type of atmospheric circulation
occurs in the Northern hemisphere, due to the orography, with four blocking pressure heights and
four pressure lows extending southward from the polar region. This causes cooling in Europe and
eastern part of North America while in the western part of North America, in Greenland and in
Central Siberia above-normal temperatures occur due to the flow from the south. When enhanced
geomagnetic activity prevails, weobserve opposite temperatures, i.e. warming in Europe and cooling
in Greenland.These conclusionswere proved statistically /3/.
Changes in winter temperature (Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.) in Oslo have a similar character as in Prague.
Figure 2 shows a comparison of changes in geomagnetic activity (Cip indices) with winter
temperatures at several sites: Prague and Oslo which are positively correlated, and Jakobshaven and
WaUa-Walla which show negative correlation with geomagnetic activity. Very expressive is the
positive correlation for Prague ~c.c.0.63).This seems to be in favour with the fact that the increased
corpuscular (geomagnetic) activity is connecled with the prevailing zonal type of atmospheric
circulation (r.h.s. of Fig. 2 bottom) leading to the warming in Prague and Oslo. On the other hand at
the time of low geomagnetic activity the meridional type prevails (r.h.s. of Fig. 2 top) and causes the
cooling in Prague and Oslo due to the prevailing flow from the north during low geomagnetic
activity at thesesites, while Jakobshavn and Walla-Walla are at the same time under the influence of
warm air from the south along the western side of mighty high pressure areas.
JASR 11:3-E
(3)60 V. Bucha

alternation of the meridional type to the zonal type of circulation /3, 11, 12/.
The processes in the earth’ interior (probably connected with orbital characteristics) act on the
wandering of geomagnetic poles which represent the centre of the auroral oval. In this way long-
term climate changes seem to depend on the position and shift of the auroral oval where the effect
of the solar activity seems to be relatively strongest.
The concentration of CO2 increased by 25 % over the period 1740-1980 /1/. The aim of this paper
was to contribute to the elucidation of basic long-term changes in temperature and to the explana-
tion of possible mutual links. This should enable the way howto distinguish the natural variability of
the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and its possible alteration by human activity. The problem of pre-
dicting future global change induced by man’s activity cannot be separated from that of under-
standing the physical mechanism of natural variations in climate and weather. That’s why also the
search for explaining the processes in the upper and middle atmosphere, mainly in the auroral oval
should be intensified which requires accurate measurements over an extended time period.
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