Unit 3: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Introduction
Sometimes it takes chances to decide on something. The higher the chances
of winning or gaining, the higher the chances to pursue on that particular decision.
This idea is suitable to students who need to be immersed in making rational
choices. It can be best explained in this module.

Learning Outcomes
At the end of this module the student will be able to:
1. Learn and explain random variables and probability distributions.
2. Understand and discuss expected values, mean and variance

Lesson 1: Random Variables and Probability Distributions

According to Belecina et. al (2016), a random variable is a function that associates
a real number to each element in the sample space. It is a variable whose values are
determined by chance. Some examples are tossing a coin, drawing an ace from a
deck of cards, getting defective item from a box with defective items and
non-defective items, and others. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is
called the sample space.

Discrete Random Variable

Discrete Random Variable is a random variable defined over a discrete
sample space. A discrete sample space is a sample space which is finite or
countable. Example of this is tossing a coin until head occurs.

Continuous Random Variable

This refers to a random variable defined over a continuous sample
space. Usually, it represents measured observations that include height,
weight, distance, temperature, length of life, etc.
Binomial Distribution

Source: https://byjus.com/math/binomial-distribution/

Normal Distribution
According to Galliguez, T. et. al.(2016) the normal distribution is the
most important continuous probability distribution in the entire field of
statistics. The formula (for normal curves) was derived by Abraham de Moivre
(1667-1754). When p=.05, he observed that binomial distributions approach a
definite form as n increases. This limiting form is what is now known as a
normal distribution.

Lesson 2: Expected Values, Mean and Variance

Example: Tossing a single unfair die

For fun, imagine a weighted die (cheating!) so we have these probabilities:

1 2 3 4 5 6

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

Mean or Expected Value: μ

When we know the probability p of every value x we can calculate the
Expected Value (Mean) of X:

μ = Σxp

Note: Σ is Sigma Notation, and means to sum up.

To calculate the Expected Value:

● multiply each value by its probability

● sum them up

Example continued:

x 1 2 3 4 5 6

p 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

xp 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 3

μ = Σxp = 0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4+0.5+3 = 4.5

The expected value is 4.5

Note: this is a weighted mean: values with higher probability have higher
contribution to the mean.

Variance: Var(X)
The Variance is:

Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2

To calculate the Variance:

● square each value and multiply by its probability

● sum them up and we get Σx2p
● then subtract the square of the Expected Value μ2

Example continued:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6

p 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

x2p 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 18

Σx2p = 0.1+0.4+0.9+1.6+2.5+18 = 23.5

Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2 = 23.5 - 4.52 = 3.25

The variance is 3.25

Suggested Readings

● https://opentextbc.ca/introstatopenstax/chapter/mean-or-expecte
d-value-and-standard-deviation/