THE DECLINE OF LATE BRONZE AGE CIVILIZATION AS A

POSSIBLE RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

B A R R Y WEISS
Bell Laboratories, 11900 N. Pecos Street, Denver, CO 80234

Abstract. The disintegration of Eastern Mediterranean civilization at the end of

the late Bronze Age (late thirteenth and twelfth centuries B.C.) has traditionally
been attributed to the irruption of new peoples into this area. However, the nearly
contemporaneous decline of highly organized and powerful states in Greece,
Anatolia, Egypt, and Mesopotamia warrants consideration of possible environ-
mental causes likely to operate over sizable areas, especially since archaeological
research has not succeeded in establishing the presence of newcomers at the onset
of the Bronze Age disturbances.
Climatic change is a particularly attractive candidate since temperature and
precipitation variations persisting over relatively short times can adversely affect
agricultural output. Carpenter (1966) argued that the Mycenaean decline and
migrations in and from Greece in the late thirteenth century were caused by
prolonged drought and not the incursion of less civilized Dorian tribes. Donley
(1971) and Bryson et al. (1974) have presented evidence of a spatial drought
pattern which occurred in January 1955 that might be invoked to support this
thesis. Population movements in Anatolia at the same time, though not as well
established, can be delimited to some degree by the distribution of Hitto-Luwian
peoples in the late ninth century B.C. It is hypothesized here that a drought
induced migration of Luwian peoples from Western Antolia occurred early in the
twelfth century B.C., that it was associated in some fashion with the invasion of
Egypt by the 'Sea Peoples' in the reign of Ramesses III, and that the defeated
remnants of these peoples settled along the Levantine coast and filtered into North
Syria and the upper Euphrates valley.
It has been suggested that past climatic patterns recur in the present epoch
but with a possibly different frequency. To establish that a spatial drought
analogue to the above hypothesized migration can occur, temperature and pre-
cipitation records from 35 Greek, Turkish, Cypriot, and Syrian weather stations
for the period 1951-1976 were examined. The Palmer drought index, an empiri-
cal method of measuring drought severity, was computed for each of these
stations for the period of record. Since wheat yields tend to be highly correlated
with winter precipitation for the area in question, the drought indices for the
winter months were subjected to an empirical eigenvector analysis. An eigenvector
(drought pattern) consistent with the postulated population movements in Anato-
lia occurred within the modem climatological record and was found to have been
the dominant pattern in January 1972. The potential problems of eigenvector
analysis in investigating problems of this type are discussed.

1. Introduction

F r o m earliest t i m e s h u m a n h a b i t a t h a s b e e n i n f l u e n c e d a n d c o n t r o l l e d b y c l i m a t e . M a n
h a s b e e n able t o e s t a b l i s h h i m s e l f o n l y in t h o s e areas w h e r e climatic c o n d i t i o n s were
a m e n a b l e t o his activities a n d n e e d s or w h e r e t h r o u g h i n v e n t i o n h e was able t o m o d i f y

Climatic Change 4 (1982) 173-198. 0165=0009/82/0042-0173502.60.

Copyright 9 1982 by D. Reidel Publishing Co., Dordrecht, Holland and Boston, U.S.A.
174 Barry Weiss

nature. He was able to prosper in semi-arid regions where assurance of an adequate food
supply was tenuous at best, provided he was able to devise and maintain elaborate irriga-
tion systems. When environmental conditions worsened, populations had to adapt; if
the changes were too severe their cultural level might decline and/or they might be forced
to seek new homelands where more hospitable conditions prevailed. One method that has
been used to detect episodes of suspected climate change has been to examine the historical
and archaeological record for periods of unusually high migrational activity and cultural
decline (Wendlend and Bryson, 1973). One such period was the close of the Late Bronze
Age in the Near East, c. 1200 B.C.
The disintegration of Eastern Mediterranean civilization in the late thirteenth and
twelfth centuries B.C. has traditionally been attributed to the irruption of new tribes
into the area. An historical and archaeological survey of the period (presented in Section
2) fails to substantiate this claim. Revealed instead is a redistribution of indigenous popu-
lation groups, especially from the Aegean basin and Anatolia. Because the cultural dis-
continuity and disruption occurred over extensive geographical area, the consideration
of environmental factors as the responsible agent is warranted. Among these, climate
change is perhaps the most obvious and attractive because persistent temperature and
precipitation anomalies can have an immediate impact on agricultural productivity
(Section 3). It will be shown that the reduction of modern climate data by eigenvector
analysis reveals a drought pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean consistent with the
migrational pattern provided by historical and archaeological evidence. (Sections 4 and
5). We will conclude with a discussion of the eigenvector method when applied to problems
of this type and alternative methods to unravel the mysteries of this ancient episode in
human history (Section 6).

2. Survey of Archaeological, Historical, and Legendary Evidence for Disturbances at

the End of the Bronze Age

2.1. Egypt

Egypt remained a strong power well into the second half of the thirteenth century B.C.
under the Pharoah Ramesses II (1304-1237 B.C.). Influence in Syria had been wrested
from him by the Hittite monarch Muwatallish at Qadesh in 1300 B.C. (Figure 1), but the
Egyptians retained control over Palestine. By 1284 B.C. peace had been struck between
the two kingdoms and Ramesses, with his northern frontier secure, was able to turn
attention to domestic projects, in particular a large scale building program. If the crafts-
manship exhibited a marked decline from the high standards of earlier reigns as some
critics contend, it may reflect little more than a limited availability of skilled workmen.
That Ramesses was able to undertake such a program indicates that the kingdom at least
remained prosperous.
The half century following the death of the old pharoah was punctuated by invasions
which ultimately sapped the strength of the kingdom. In 1232 B.C., the Pharoah Merne-
 PELASGIA~~ t~

Greeks- Tyrl RHODES

CRETE

FT/~ Greeks
Luwians
L IBYANS
~ Hittites
'\ ~ Semites
Eastern Mediterranean c 1235 B.C.
1 ~ 7 Hurriens
/
Fig. 1. The eastern Mediterranean world, c. 1235 B.C. Names of nations are in R o m a n type, peoples in italics. Luwian domains are somewhat conjectural. In
Asia Minor: Arzawa, the Lukka lands, and western Kizzuwatna are definitely Luwian. Luwian elements in Greece and Crete are based primarily on onomastic
information. The ethnic affiliations o f Tyrhennians, Phrygians, and Pelasgians are u n k n o w n and their presence is conjectural.
176 Barry Weiss

ptah ( 1 2 3 6 - 1 2 2 3 B.C.) decisively defeated a coalition o f Libyans and northerners k n o w n

as the Sea Peoples. The invaders named in an Egyptian inscription were Akaiwasha,
Tursha, Lukka, Sherden, and Sheklesh. A l t h o u g h the indentification o f the first three
with Achaeans (Mycenaean Greeks), Tyrhennians, and Lycians remains s o m e w h a t contro-
versial, the invasions are c o n c e d e d by m o s t scholars to have originated from the Aegean
area (Albright, 1975; Gardiner, 1961, and Barnett, 1975a; but see Page, 1963). 1
A more serious thrust o f n o r t h e r n invaders w i t h designs on the rich delta lands and
fertile plains o f Syria and Palestine was turned aside by Ramesses III in 1191 B.C. 2 This
second wave o f Sea Peoples consisted o f Peleset, Tjekker, Sheklesh, Danu ( D e n y e n ) and
Weshesh. These warriors came w i t h wives, children and h o u s e h o l d goods w i t h the obvious
intent o f establishing themselves in the delta. Once m o r e scholars find affinities b e t w e e n
these appellations and names k n o w n from the Aegean, but the identifications are n o t
universally accepted. 3 However, in the battle scene found on the temple o f Medinet
Habu, the invaders are clearly in Aegean costume. One identification is certain; the Peleset
are the Philistines o f the Bible.4 A Biblical tradition connects t h e m with Caphtor (= Crete).
Pottery found in their cities exhibits strong affinities w i t h Late Helladic (LH) IIIC
( 1 2 2 5 - 1 1 0 0 B.C.) wares f o u n d chiefly in the Aegean and on Cyprus.
It is i m p o r t a n t to emphasize that the issue that is debated is the identification o f the

1 The name Achaioi was one of three that Homer, in the lliad, used for the Greek forces under
Agamemnon at Troy. The others were Danaoi (see note 3) and Argives. The three names were indis-
criminately interchanged by the poet. The Greek historian Herodotos (c. 445 B.C.) recorded what
seems to be a Lydian tradition (Histories, 1.94) that the Tyrhennians (or Etruscans) emigrated from
western Anatolia at a time, by the historian's reckoning, not far removed from the period of dis-
turbances at the close of the Bronze Age. The Lukka can more confidently be identified with the
Lycians, an Anatolian people speaking a Luwian dialect found in classical times in southwestern Ana-
tolia. The Lukka, known from other Bronze Age documents to have preyed on the inhabitants of
Cyprus likely lived along the south Anatolian coast as did their classical descendents, but this like so
many other matters remains an open issue. The term Sherden shows a likeness to the name of Sardis,
the Lydian capital in classical times, but the names of the latter two peoples have occasionally been
equated with the Sardinians and Sicels of the Western Mediterranean.
2 The period between Merneptah and Ramesses III was marked by domestic turmoil and a change in
dynasty. There were a series of 'short reigns' of indeterminate length which leads to some uncertainty,
probably not exceeding a decade, in the dating of events. This period of short reigns is not to be
confused with that described by Bell (1975) to be a possible consequence of Nile flood level changes
and alleged to be related to climatic change. The events described by Bell take place c. 1991-1570
B.C. Records of Nile flood levels from the period 1200-800 B.C. are not extant. Considering the
breakdown of civil authority during that period, such records may never have existed.
3 For the Peleset see note 4. The Tjekker have been connected with Teukros, a legendary Greek
figure associated with foundations in Cilicia and Cyprus following the Trojan War. A late twelfth
century Egyptian text shows them in control of Byblos and Dor (Figure 2). The Danu or Denyen
provide a more lively topic for debate. They are frequently identified as the Danaoi of Homer's///ad.
Others (Page, 1963) would link them to the city of Ataniya (modern Adana) in Kizzuwatna which is
attested in Hittite documents of the Late Bronze Age. Certainly the linguistic elements from the
Egyptian inscription fit both names, but the latter ignores that the inscription (as generally translated)
states that the invaders came from the isles. Moreover, the inscription acknowledges the total collapse
of Khatti and Kode (Kizzuwatna) at the hands of the same invaders. The fact that the Peleset are of
rather certain Aegean affiliation, lends support to the contention that all these peoples had Aegean
connections. The Weshesh are otherwise unknown. The author suggests they may be from north-
western Asia Minor, where existed the shadowy land Assuwa mentioned once in Hittite archives.
 The Decline o f Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 177

names in the Egyptian inscriptions with particular tribes known or likely to have lived
in the Aegean basin in the Bronze Age. That these invasions originated in the Aegean
area is not hotly contested. The specific identifications only become important when an
attempt is made to more closely localize the sources o f the emigration in the closing years
o f the Bronze Age. The thesis to be put forth in this paper does not rest upon the validity
o f these conjectural identifications. Nevertheless, a preponderance o f names in the
Egyptian sources have close equivalents to names known from the Aegean. The author
suspects that this is more than coincidental.
Ramesses III boasted that his victories over the northerners and over the Libyans in 1194
and 1188 B.C. were total. The evidence belies these claims. The Philistines and Tjekker
at least, though turned from the delta, nonetheless settled along the Levantine coast in
lands once subject to the pharoahs. Libyans continued to infiltrate into the delta, at last
becoming influential enough to set up their own as pharoahs (the 22nd dynasty in the
tenth century B.C.). Domestic turmoil increased in the later years o f his reign and civil
authority broke down. When Ramesses III died following a long reign, a shadowy chain o f
pharoahs succeeded him, all bearing the same name, but none the same authority. By the
late Ramesside period the priests of the god A m o n were ignominously challenging the
power o f the pharoah.

2.2. Cyprus

The two invasions suffered on Egypt by tribes from the Aegean can be traced around the
Eastern Mediterranean littoral. Archaeological excavations on Cyprus reveal two destruc-
tion horizons (Catling, 1975) which can be connected, with some confidence, to the
invasions o f the Sea Peoples. The Late Cypriote II phase (c. 1 4 0 0 - 1 2 0 0 B.C.) ended at
Enkomi in a major destruction of the whole town. The town, rebuilt on a new plan,
surrounded by walls of ashlar masonry, and containing Late Helladic (LH) IIIC wares
with affinities in the Argolid provides evidence for the arrival of Mycenaeans from the
Greek mainland. Similar patterns are repeated at Kition and other Cypriote sites. The
second destruction horizon occurred not too much later since LH IIIC wares were still
found in the debris at Enkomi and Kition. In classical times, a Greek dialect was spoken
on the island, closely akin to that spoken in Arcadia by descendents of Mycenaean
Greeks. Greek speakers among the Sea Peoples (e.g., Akaiwasha-Achaeans c. 1232;

4 There exists a possible link between the Philistines and a people Greek tradition scattered about the
northern Aegean and Crete in the time before the Trojan War, the Pelasgians. A late Greek tradition
claimed that the Lydians and Pelasgians controlled the seas for the two centuries following the Trojan
War (Miller, 1971), the same period during which the Philistines were becoming established in Pales-
fine. The Lydian historian Xar~thos (fourth century B.C.) records a tradition that claimed the Philis-
tines were Lydian colonists. Homer (Iliad II840) knew of Pelasgians in the southern Troad in the
vicinity of later Lydia, while the Bible (Gen. 10.14, I Chron. 1.12) makes an association between the
Philistines and Lydians. Linguistically the difficulty consists of the interchange of the t and g in the
two names. However, a late classical source provides the variant 'Pelastikon' for ~ (Berard,
1951), which tenuously suggests the consonant may have been one that the Greeks found difficult
to pronounce. A physical connection of the two peoples would certainly be useful, but the thesis of
this paper does not rest upon such a link.
 Oo

ALASHIYA
CAPHTOR ~AM~iRAMAEANS
(CRETE) OR)--r

- - ~ Greeks

~ LuwJans

-- ~ Semites

~ ~ Hurrians
Eastern Mediterranean c1175 B.C.

Fig. 2. The eastern Mediterranean world, c. 1175 B.C. The e x t e n t of the Luwians is again s o m e w h a t arbitrarily drawn. The Lydians were definitely n o t
Luwian, b u t spoke a language m o r e akin to Hittite.
 The Decline of Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 179

Denyen-Danaoi, c. 1191) no doubt settled in Cyprus at this time and imposed their
language on the islanders (Figures 1 and 2).

2.3. Ugarit

This important and prosperous emporium on the Levantine coast (Figure 2) was de-
stroyed suddenly near the very end of the Bronze Age and never re-occupied. Tablets,
unearthed here from an oven in which they were to be baked for preservation, record
events in the last weeks, or even days, of the city. These tablets provide an extraordinary
glimpse of the frantic preparations which the city and her neighbors pursued, in vain, to
ward against the final catastrophe, s The fall of Ugarit was no doubt the work of the Sea
Peoples. It is more probable that the events are related to the second invasion, for in c.
1232 B.C. the Hittite king, either Tudhaliyash IV or Arnuwandash III, should still have
been strong enough to protect a Levantine city subject to him. Moreover, it was the later
invaders that engaged Ramesses III somewhere in Syria.

2.4. Khatti

Meanwhile, up on the high plateau of Anatolia, the Hittites were swept away and vanished
from history. Khatti had been the most powerful state in the Near East when Muwatallish
had engaged and vanquished Ramesses II at Qadesh. But Hittite fortunes declined pre-
cipitously in the last half of the thirteenth century. By 1240 B.C. Hittite suzerainty over
western Anatoha had waned. The events which triggered the vast migrations out of the
Aegean must have also dispatched other related tribes eastward across the plateau. The
people generally accredited with the burning of the Hittite capital Khattusas were the
Phrygians, a people k n o w n to the Assyrians as the Mushld. They are attested in the upper
Tigris basin by the mid-twelfth century where they raided Assyrian territory until defeated
by Tiglath-pilesar I, c. 1115 B.C. (Figure 2). 6

s In one letter the King of Alashiya (= Cyprus) requests food shipments from 'Ammurapi, the last
known king of Ugafit, who replies that he can not help, that all his troops and chariots are in the
Hittite lands, and all his ships in the Lukka lands. He mentions that his city has already suffered from
enemy attack and asks about the state of affairs on Alashiya. The Hittite king, probably Shuppiluliu-
mash II, urgently requests that Ugarit send whatever is available. If the letter to the king of Alashiya
is of later date, then 'Ammurapi complied. In another missive from the oven, the Ugaritic commander
in the north concedes defeat: 'I fall. Thy servant in Lawasanda (a city in eastern Kizzuwatna) fortified
his positions with the King (of Khatti). And behold the King retreated...' The allies' defenses crumbled,
the net tightened. Another letter reports the enemy had penetrated to Mr. Amanus immediately north
of the city. Ugarit must have been sacked soon afterwards (see Drower, 1975; Astour, 1965).
6 The Phrygians may with some confidence be placed in the Aegean world somewhat earlier (Figures
1 and 2). One tradition, in the Riad, placed them in the vicinity of the Sangarios River before the
Trojan War, where Priam joined with them in battle against the Amazons (= Hittites?). Herodotos
(Histories, III.73) recorded a Macedonian tradition that they crossed into Asia from Macedon and
Thrace before the Trojan War. However, Xanthos, the fourth century B.C. Lydian historian, wrote
that they arrived in Asia following the war (Barnett, 1975b). Yet the dynastic name Midas, closely
associated with the Phrygians in Greek tradition, is attested, as Mita of Pahhuwa,
Vk~
in a Hittite docu-
ment, perhaps as early as the fifteenth century, operating in the upper Euphrates valley and the
Armenian highlands (Gurney, 1948). It seems prebable that the Phrygians or a closely kindred people
formed part of the Anatolian or Aegean community in the Bronze Age.
180 Barry Weiss

Migration of another western Anatolian ethnic group, the Luwians, at nearly the same
time can be inferred from linguistic evidence. Luwians, linguistic cousins of the Hittites,
are attested in western Anatolia by documents in the imperial Hittite archives from
Khatussas. They extended at least as far east as Tuwanuwa (= classical Tyana) and had
probably also penetrated into Kizzuwatna (Figure 1) in the Late Bronze Age, for Luwian
names are attested there. But they were probably blocked from further eastern infiltra-
tion by the Hurrians, another important ethnic constituent of the Hittite Empire, already
established in Kizzuwatna. There is no evidence at any rate for Luwian presence in north
Syria before 1200 B.C. In the Hittite period, Hurrian names are attested at both Alalakh
and Carchemish, were there was probably also an admixture of Semites (Guterbock,
1978).
By the mid-tenth century however the Luwians occupied north Syria (Figure 3). King
David of Israel treated on cordial terms with the Neo-Hittite (i.e., Luwian) state of
Hamath. Later still the Assyrians referred to the important kingdom of Carchemish as
the Kingdom of Khatti (through her kings still had typically Hurrian names). On the
other hand, kings of other Neo-Hittite states, Gurgum, Melid (= classical Melitene), and
Kummukh (= classical Commagene), sport patently Hitto-Luwian names, not a few of
which harken back to the imperial Hittite period (Gurney, 1952; Hawkins, 1974; Barnett,
1975b). The only likely period for the arrival of the Luwians into north Syria is that of
the great disturbances attendant on the collapse of the Late Bronze Age civilizations, c.
1200 B.C.

2.5. Greece and the Aegean

From Greece we have no real history from this period. What evidence there is must be
pieced together from legend and excavation. This is not inconsequential and must not be
despised. Whatever Greek unity might be inferred in the LH IIIB period (1325-1235
B.C.) from a widespread common culture and the weight of the Homeric Iliad quickly
broke down toward the middle of the thirteenth century. Defensive preparations were
marked by construction of massive forticification walls around the Mycenaean citadels
and attempts at several sites to secure a water supply within the defensive perimeter. But
the endeavor was unsuccessful. The signs of destruction and abandonment are pervasive.
At Mycenae and Tiryns there are signs of destruction by fire, and though these two cita-
dels were not abandoned yet, the damage was never fully repaired. The fortress of Gla in
Boeotia did not survive the period. Pylos was burnt, its very location forgotten. Numerous
other settlements in the Argolid, Laconia, and Messenia were destroyed and abandoned.
At the sime time there appears to have been movement of population to eastern Attica,
Arcadia, Achaea, Cephallenia, and Crete (Figure 1). Though the destructions have fre-
quently been attributed to the arrival of Dorian invaders (see Mylonas, 1966; Carpenter,
1966), there is no evidence of newcomers at this time. The subsequent LH IIIC culture
may be parochial and diminished, but it is rio less Mycenaen 7 (Desborough, 1975).

7 Greek tradition confirms this. According to the legends, the Dorians entered the Peloponnesos
some eighty years following the Trojan War or probably c. 1160 B.C. by our dating.
 D~

IRYGIA =.
%
MUSHK/

~ Greeks

~--~ Luwians
q

Eastern Mediterranean in
Lore 9th-Sth Centuries B.C.

Oo
Fig. 3. The eastern Mediterranean world, c. 825 B.C. The position of peoples and nations and ethnic affiliations are reasonably secure.
182 Barry Weiss

Some Greeks may well have taken to the seas in this period of disorder and joined
their Cycladic and western Anatolian neighbors in ravaging lands further east. Greek
legend may very well contain a folk memory of the disturbances recorded in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Certainly the Trojan War legends are replete with tales of wandering and
colonization in distant lands 8 (Stubbings, 1975).

2.6. Assyria

In the fourteenth century the Hittites burst from behind the Taurus range to crush the
state of Mitanni in upper Mesopotamia. They loosened the grip of that Hurrian state
over Assyria, which under an energetic succession of monarchs used the opportunity
to fashion a powerful kingdom in upper Mesopotamia and to challenge the Hittites over
their common frontier. But not long after the middle of the thirteenth century, Assyrian
fortunes abruptly changed. A series of revolts tore the kingdom apart; the Assyrian
collapse was meteoric. When Tikulti-Ninurta I was assassinated in 1208 B.C., Assyria was
hardly the world power she had been a mere quarter century before. Like so many of her
neighbors, Assyria fell into eclipse.

2.7. The Renaissance

The years c. 1 2 0 0 - 8 2 5 B.C. may be styled the Ancient Dark Ages. Civilization regressed
almost everywhere throughout the eastern Mediterranean and Near East from Late
Bronze Age levels. If this is not generally true for the Levant, where small states were
able to prosper occasionally, it is only because there was a singular absence of any major
powers to interfere in their affairs.
The period as a whole is less well known than the age which preceded it because of a
widespread decline in literacy. In the Aegean and western Anatolia, the turmoil brought
writing to extinction. Though literacy survived elsewhere, it was at a substantially reduced
level. Documents were fewer and as a result the history of Egypt, the Neo-Hittite states,
and Assyria during the early Iron Age remains obscure. Prosperity too was diminished.

8 The best known tale is that of Odysseus, who wandered the Mediterranean for ten years before
returning to strife on Ithaca (Homer, Odyssey). Menelaos spent eight years in eastern Mediterranean
waters, including a troublesome sojourn in Egypt (a memory of the Sea Peoples' invasions?). The
obscure hero Mopsos led a band overland from Colophon (in western Anatolia) to Cilicia. This ad-
venture could possibly be confirmed by a Hittite document of now uncertain date, but once believed
to have been from the reign of Arnuwandash III, c. 1235-1215 B.C. Amphilochas founded a number
of towns in Pamphylia and Cilicia. Teukros, banished from Salamis, sailed to Cyprus. Agapenor, leader
of the Arcadians at Troy, also found refuge here.
Other legends connect inhabitants from the Aegean with migration to the western Mediterranean.
Philoctetes was credited with several foundations in southern Italy. Diomedes settled in Apulia; Mes-
senians from Pylos were said to have established Metaponton on the Gulf of Taranto and Pisa in
Etruria. Herodotos (Histories, 1.94) records a Lydian tradition that the Tyrhennians (= Etruscans)
were driven from Lydia to Etruria in Italy by a sustained drought at a date not far removed from the
Trojan War. Strabon (fl. first century B.C.) wrote of Pelasgian and Tyrhennian involvement in the
foundation of several Etrurian cities,
 The Decline o f Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 183

Nowhere were there buildings to compare with the architectural wonders of the My-
cenaeans, Hittites, and Egyptians of the former era, or the Assyrian palaces of a later.
Luxury goods became scarce, art crude, and trade diminished. One gets the impression
that life was difficult.
Soon after 850 B.C. the situation changed. The Assyrians, apparently the first of the
old powers to recover, began to move to the west. Through their records we can see the
diplomatic maneuvering as the Luwian states of North Syria and eastern Anatolia attemp-
ted, in vain, to contain the Assyrian expansion. In Egypt there was a recovery. In the
Aegean the Greeks began to re-establish the trade routes to both the east and west plied
by their ancestors in the Bronze Age. There was a revival in literacy, art, trade, and
prosperity in general. A new world order, with nations more closely interdependent than
before had begun.

3. The Climate Hypothesis

What happened at the end of the Bronze Age that so many states collapsed and were
overthrown? The traditional contention has been that barbarian tribes from the Bal-
kans swept into the civilized world and toppled the Mycenaean Greeks and Hittites and
pressed hard upon the Assyrians. But this does not satisfactorily explain why none of
the great powers was able to withstand this foreign invasion. It seems more likely, from
the foregoing investigation, that populations belonging to the Late Bronze Age interna-
tional community were responsible for the disturbances. Carpenter (1966) rejected the
notion that the fall of the Mycenaean states was due to a Dorian invasion. He reasoned
that the extent of the destructions and abandonments in mainland Greece together with
the curious paucity of foreign elements at all sites was inconsistent with the invasion
hypothesis and suggested instead that prolonged drought conditions induced the redistri-
bution of population in the LH IIIC period (1235-1100 B.C.). He suggested that popula-
tions responded by moving from places which had become warmer and drier than Late
Bronze Age norms to regions where it was cooler and wetter than before. Donley'(1971)
examined the modem climatic record by empirical eigenvector analysis for a spatial
drought pattern consistent with the known population shifts within Greece. He found
the fourth most important January drought pattern (eigenvector) is a close analogue to
that proposed by Carpenter for Greece at the close of the Bronze Age and that this
pattern dominated the winter of 1954-55. Furthermore, Bryson et aI. (1974) found that
the 1954-55 winter circulation was dominated by patterns consistent with the Mycenaean
drought pattern and with climatic conditions believed to have been probable in other
places at that time.
It seems reasonable, then, to suppose that drought may have been responsible for the
entire episode of migration and disintegration documented in Section 2. We may speculate
that in the third quarter of the thirteenth century groups from the Greek mainland
(Achaeans = Akaiwasha?) and western Anatolia (Tyrhennians = Tursha?, Lycians --- Lukka)
fled from drought conditions with which they could not cope. Some invested themselves
in Cyprus from where they attacked Egypt, c. 1232 B.C. Others fled westward to Italy,
184 Barry Weiss

Sicily, and Sardinia (Figure 1). Conditions perhaps worsened towards the end of the
century, igniting a second, more devastating wave which rent the entire political and
economic fabric of Late Bronze Age civilization. Tribes from the Aegean basin (Danaans =
Denyen?, Pelasgians? = Peleset = Philistines) again penetrated Cyprus and invaded the
Nile delta, c. 1191 B.C. Egypt won a Pyrrhic victory, then slipped into decline, while the
vanquished established themselves on the Palestinian and Phoenician coasts. About the
same time Luwian groups from western and central Anatolia poured across the Taurus
range into north Syria. Khatti, Kizzuwatna, and Ugarit fell to this onslaught. Phrygian-
Mushki elements from northwest Anatolia swept across the plateau toppling the remnant
of the Hittite Empire, crossed the Taurus, and descended into the land round the head-
waters of the Tigris (Figure 2). Climatic conditions may have remained unfavorable until
the late ninth century, when the recovery of civilization was almost simultaneous at all
of the old centers (Figure 3).
Drought reduces crop yields and with that comes a concomitant reduction in popula-
tion. Archaeology confirms a population decrease in Greece after the Bronze Age (Hope-
Simpson, 1965). Population in Mesopotamia also declined from a local maximum in the
Late Bronze Age (Adams, 1965). Unfortunately, estimates of the trend in Anatolia must
await further excavation there.
A shortfall of precipitation would also explain the attraction of Egypt to desperate,
hungry bands of people, for agricultural productivity in the Nile valley is independent of
local rainfall. Winter precipitation in the mountains of East Africa controls the annual
floods which deposit rich alluvium in the lower Nile valley. A deficiency of winter pre-
cipitation in equatorial East Africa would result in lower flood stages and consequently
diminished crop yields in Egypt. Evidence for decreased precipitation about this time is
cited by Donley (1971).
Another alluring region would have been the plains of North Syria near the Euphrates,
where river water could have been diverted through irrigation systems to thirsty crops.
Surface water resources in most other areas of the Near East were of insufficient
reliability to depend on in times of precipitation shortfalls. Yet even along the rivers
where water could be secured, conditions were never generous enough to raise the cultural
level much above subsistence in the Dark Ages (c. 1200-825 B.C.).

4. Methods

Though definite proof of drought in western Anatolia and Greece at the close of the
Bronze Age must await the accumulation of corroborating direct evidence such as tree
ring chronologies, we should be able to determine whether the complex spatial drought
pattern suggested by investigation of archaeological and historical materials is possible.
It is generally agreed that climatic patterns of the recent past probably occur, but with a
different frequency, in the present (see Donley, 1971). The five currently predominant
precipitation patterns in the eastern Mediterranean show that Greece and Turkey normally
lie on the boundary between regions of excess and deficit moisture. Thus these areas may
typically be expected to exhibit contrasts between drought and non-drought conditions
 The Decline of Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 18 5

(Donley, 1971). Moreover, these areas can be expected to be rather sensitive even to
slight changes in the global circulation pattern.
The circulation modes that characterize the climate are known to vary from century
to century. Blasing and Fritts (1976) have found that the frequency of circulation patterns
responsible for particular winter types in the United States has varied from one century
to another. Consequently, if the factors influencing the atmospheric circulation differed
at the end of the Bronze Age from those today, it would be reasonable to assume that
the relative frequency of the various circulation modes was also different. Hence a
pattern that occurs infrequently at present might have been the dominant pattern in some
past epoch.

4.1. The Data N e t w o r k

The purpose of this study (as was Donley's) was to demonstrate the existence of a spatial
drought pattern consistent with population movements at the end of the Bronze Age.
Monthly temperature and precipitation data for the years 1951-1976 was extracted from
the world monthly surface station climatology tape maintained at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado for 35 stations in Greece, Turkey,
Cyprus, and Syria. The stations used in this study are indicated on Figure 4 with the
available period of record.
To obtain the drought index described below continuous monthly precipitation and
temperature data is a necessity. Missing data were replaced by the 1951-1976 mean
monthly value for the particular station or by an adjusted mean when conditions war-
ranted. If nearby stations exhibited a uniform deviation from the norm, an adjustment of
the same magnitude and direction was applied to the missing datum. On occasion, when
values for surrounding months differed from the normal in the same direction, the trend
was assumed to be persistent in the month with missing data. In a very few instances, data
missing from the NCAR tape were available from World Weather Records published by
the National Climate Center (NCC), in Asheville, North Carolina. In every case the
correction was conservative, as every precaution was taken not to introduce false drought
conditions into the data. Very often missing data occurred in the dry months, April
through September, at which time there is very little precipitation to alleviate drought
conditions and when temperature exhibits the least variance.
In the main, the Turkish weather stations were in good order. Twenty-three stations
provided a continuous record since at least 1951. Less than 1% of the monthly data for
both temperature and precipitation was missing for the 1951-1976 period of record;
the largest part of this was the lost record between February and October 1975 at five
stations: Rize, Erzincan, Urfa, Bursa, and Mugla. The Greek data at seven stations were
less satisfactory, with approximately 3% of the data absent. Data at Patrai were lost from
March through December 1976. The long term average values were used in this instance.
Data for most of the 17 stations used by Donley (1971) were unavailable, which is
unfortunate because they could have provided resolution of the spatial drought pattern
in Greece unobtainable with just seven stations. Only one station, Nicosia, which ceased
 29-76
1'951
KERKYR~
1951-76
SIVAS
KARA
~;~ ~ 2 1 9 5 1 _ 76 '6-76 ERZINCAN

9 AFYON ~
1951-76
9 ~} 9 KONYA
MUGLA ISPA~TA 1951-76
9 Ar 9 KAIv
01 ANTALYA le951-76

. ^ HIRAKLION ~7
9 ALE L lpo
1951-76"
~6 o~ "AKIA IR EZZOR
IA -76 51-7'6
74
~

Stations on NCAR Tape

with Records Dating Back
to at Least 1952

Fig. 4. Weather stations in the eastern Mediterranean used in this study with records dating back to at least 1952. A few stations have relocated during the
time frame of this study, but are treated as a continuous record.
 The Decline o f Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 187

reporting in July 1974 was available for Cyprus. The 1951-1976 monthly averages were
supplied for purposes of this study. For the four Syrian stations, the available record
spanned 1952-1976, with less than 1% of the data missing for that period. Precipitation
data was available at Aleppo and Deir Ezzor for 1951. Mean monthly values were supplied
for the missing 1951 data.
The weather stations utilized in this study are geographically well spaced, a requisite
for the delineation of any drought pattern that may have influenced the Bronze Age
civilizations. In Turkey and Syria the stations are probably more or less representative
of a moderately large topographic area, which is important because the empirical drought
index utilized in this study is normally computed from the average conditions over a
group of reporting stations in an area. For this study we were limited to one station per
geographical region. There is also an adequate number of stations in most areas that
Bronze Age populations both emigrated from and immigrated to. Greece and Cyprus are
the exceptions. We would feel more comfortable in this regard with the larger selection
of stations in Greece available to Donley (1971) and with more than just Nicosia to
represent an island which loomed so important in the migrations at the close of the
Bronze Age.

4.2. Palmer D r o u g h t I n d e x

Drought is not solely a function of precipitation shortfall. Heavy precipitation may not
prevent a drought if it falls in a small number of large events so that much of the moisture
is lost to the ecosystem through runoff. On the other hand, less than normal precipitation
may be adequate if cooler than normal temperatures reduce the loss of moisture to a soil/
plant community through evapotranspiration. In fact, crop yields can even remain quite
good with much less than normally adequate moisture if precipitation does occur at
critical stages of the crop's growth.
Agricultural drought may be defined as the shortage of available soil moisture in the
root zone of crops. Palmer (1965) devised an empirical index for drought severity that
models root zone moisture utilizing easily obtainable data such as monthly precipitation
and mean temperature and an estimate of moisture capacity in two soil layers. His
method accounts for runoff and evapotranspiration. The Palmer Drought Index (PDI) was
developed using a long series of data from western Kansas and was calibrated in such a
manner as to emphasize the severity of the 1930s drought. It may be adjusted to any
climatic regime. A program to compute the PDI for any climatic regime was generously
provided by the National Climatic Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
Palmer indicated that a minimum period of 30 yrs of data be used to establish temper-
ature and precipitation normals for a region, probably on the basis that the National
Weather Service uses such a standard period. But in the region of concern for this study
only 13 stations have that lengthy a record for temperature and precipitation and, more-
over, they are far too widely separated geographically to be useful in this study. Data
would be lacking for regions as critical as Thessaly, the Peloponnesos, Crete, northwestern
and southwestern Anatolia, the Konya,plain, and the plains of northern Syria. Only one
188 Barry Weiss

station would be available for Greece which is already sparsely covered, and none for
Syria. Fortunately, Donley (1971) found that the PDI based on thirty year norms differed
insignificantly from those computed using his 17 yr data series. He found the index
essentially stabilized after 18 months. This study utilizes 26 yr station histories from
1951-1976.
A second problem encountered in computing the PDI was an assignment of the mean
moisture holding capabilities of the softs in the regions surrounding each of the 35 weather
stations and the value of available moisture in the soil to be assumed at the beginning of
the computation period in January 1951. Soil characteristics are not as readily available
for eastern Mediterranean countries as they are for the United States. Donley (1971)
assumed a moisture carrying capacity of four inches for the soil at each of his stations,
assigning one inch to the topsoil layer and the remainder to the subsoil, and assumed that the
soil was saturated at the beginning of his study. He experimented with other initializing
schemes, since no actual soil moisture measurements were available for Greece, but found
there were essentially no differences in the computed PDI between schemes after the
initial 18-24 months. In this study we followed the same assumptions as Donley, assuming
that the softs in the neighborhood of each station were saturated in January 1951 with
one inch of moisture in the topsoil and three inches in the subsoil.
Palmer drought indices were computed for each of the 35 stations for the period
1951-1976. Based on the studies made by Donley (1971) that showed that it took
approximately 1 8 - 2 4 months for the computed PDI to reach an equilibrium when the
period of record was short and when the initial soil conditions were unknown, the com-
puted indices for the first two years, 1951-1952 were discarded. The indices for 1976
were also discarded because with the available data the NCC program could not deter-
mine the PDI for the latter half of the year at every station. A characteristic of the PDI
is its dependence on future data to determine the end of a drought.

4.3. EigenvectorAnalysis

Spatial patterns obtained by directly plotting mean monthly values of the PDI at a net-
work of stations for a particular month when done over a series of years might not
reveal any pattern consistent with the presumed pattern of population movements at the
close of the Bronze Age. This would certainly be the case if the desired pattern occurs
with extreme rarity within the modern record. However, the mean monthly drought
pattern for any month may be a composite or linear combination of a number of different
drought modes which are not necessarily duplicated in the available monthly data.
Empirical eigenvector analysis can be employed to separate out orthogonal drought
modes that comprise monthly patterns over a series of years. These orthogonal patterns
(eigenvectors) can be examined in turn, for one which is consistent with the population
movements at the end of the Bronze Age.
The eigenvector analysis method of Kutzbach (1967) was used to reduce the 23 yr
series of Palmer drought indices (1953-1975) for the 35 station network to a set of
orthogonal drought modes (eigenvectars) for each month of the year. In the region of
 The Decline o f Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 189

study a Mediterranean type climate marked by hot, dry summers and moderate winters
(except on the high plateau and mountains of Anatolia) prevails. Most of the yearly
precipitation falls between the months of October and March. During the winter months
the cyclones of the prevailing westerlies track as far south as Greece and Turkey. Summers
in the region are generally hot and dry. Bronze Age civilizations, like those today, were
dependent on winter precipitation for good crop yields. For this reason only the eigen-
vectors for the winter months December through February were considered. 9

5. Results

The principle eigenvector (drought pattern) for each of the three winter months is one in
which the northeastern Mediterranean area varies from its norm in the same direction.
That is, the whole region is either drier or wetter than the long term norm. The dominant
January pattern (Figure 5) is typical. We have plotted the eigenvector with a positive
coefficient 9a which, in this case, represents drier than normal conditions. Conditions to
the northwest in the Balkans run nearer the long term norm, which should be expected
since precipitation variance is smaller in more humid regimes. Conditions in eastern
Anatolia are more frequently at extremes, that is, much drier or wetter than the long
term average. The principle eigenvector for January accounts for 37% of the total drought
index variance for the month.
More interesting is the fourth January eigenvector (Figure 6) which has large scale
features analogous to the proposed Bronze Age migrational pattern. The northern Aegean,
especially in Thessaly, is extremely dry under the circulation regime which produces
this pattern. It is this area with which Greek legend most closely identifies the Tyrhen-
nian (= Tursha?) and Pelasgian (= Peleset?) emigration at the close of the Bronze Age.
Southern and central Greece, abandoned by Achaioi (= Akaiwasha?) and Danaoi (=
Denyen?), fare somewhat better but are also drier than normal. But Cyprus, the Syrian
coast, and the lands immediately east of the Taurus Mountains are wetter than normal. It
was into precisely these areas that the Sea Peoples and Luwians immigrated c. 1200 B.C.
Pamphylia and Cilicia, which also received immigrants according to legend, are also
wetter than normal. The dry regime in northwestern Anatolia could have propelled the
Phrygians eastward (if they were already in the Sangarios valley in the Bronze Age). They
are at any rate attested in the upper Tigris region by the mid-twelfth century, an area
characterized by near normal conditions. Upper Mesopotamia is somewhat drier than
normal. In this area at the close of the Bronze Age the kingdom of Assyria fell into
eclipse.
The fourth eigenvector explained about 8.5% of the total drought index variance for
the 23 Januarys used in this study. It is a recurring pattern in the modern record. More-

9 A U.S. Department of Agriculture study indicated that January, February, and May weather condi-
tions were among the most important variables affecting wheat production in Turkey (Coifing, 1973).
9a The eigenvectors describe orthogonal co-ordinate axes in a vector space. The direction of an eigen-
vector in a particular year is determined from an associated coefficient matrix.
 -0.1
SAMSUN
.... -0,1
bb ;SALONIKI -0.201

KERKYRA

" L.,-~?-0.138

-0.233
9 AFYON
-0.165
---0.2~ DIYARBAKIR
a l ~ 9165
MUGLA 9 ISP/kSITA -0 2
e-O.120 -0.159 " ~
~NTALYA - 0 , 26~

pAL
HIRAKLION -( -O.I
IR EZZOR
-0.1

L_

January - First Eigenvector

;k = 5 4 . 0 7 7 f = 0.570

\ I
Fig. 5. The dominant January eigenvector. The reduction o f the data utilized in this study revealed this pattern to be the m o s t dominant pattern in January
1955. (~k is the eigenvalue, f is the fraction of the variance explained by this eigenvector.)
 SAMSUN
ISTANBUL/GOZTEP ~-o.~ 16
oKA5
KERKYRA
SIVAS
-0.059
, -0.213 .049 ER~INCAN

136 -0s t~
h.

MUGLA -0148 % %
00024 ISPARTA~ 0320 AC 9 KAM ?
)~)92 ~';:' '::;'~ / ~'~ , \ -0.051
oe ANTAL 9 " 0.2

Po

D2
0

~b

January - Fourth Eigenvector

X : 12.557 f = 0.085

Fig. 6. The fourth January eigenvector. This pattern exhibits large scale features which are consistent (inthe main) with population movements at the end
~O
of the Late Bronze Age, c. 1200. This pattern was predominant in January 1972. 0k is the eigenvalue, f is the fraction of the variance explained by this
eigenvector.)
192 Barry Weiss

over, it is highly correlated with the January 1972 drought indices and was the pre-
dominant eigenvector in that month. It is not inconceivable that it may have been the
predominant pattern o f the climate that characterized the Dark Ages (c. 1 2 0 0 - 8 2 5 B.C.).
The fourth January eigenvector exhibits certain features which are not totally con-
sistent with the migration pattern established for the close of the Bronze Age. South-
western Anatolia displays near normal conditions. We have suggested that groups of
Lycians (Lukka) abandoned this area at the time of the first invasion of Egypt by the Sea
Peoples. 1~ The Konya plain from which Luwians may have migrated or through which
they would have traversed on eastward excursions by land is much wetter than normal.
Although Crete exhibits near normal conditions, Biblical tradition assigns the island to
be the ancestral home of the Philistines.
In general, an observed drought pattern for a particular January is not completely
determined by a single eigenvector but is approximated by a linear combination of several
(Kutzbach, 1967). For January 1972, the ninth eigenvector with a positive coefficient
holds second place in dominance. In the main that pattern reinforces the characteristics
of the fourth eigenvector: dry in the north Aegean basin and wet in the Konya plain and
Cyprus. Southwestern Anatolia is near normal, but Crete is dry (consistent with the
Bronze Age migration pattern), as is the north Levantine coast (inconsistent with the
proposed migration pattern). The third ranking eigenvector for January 1972 is the
second with a negative coefficient. This pattern contributes heavily to drying conditions
in all of western Anatolia (especially southwestern) and most of Greece, but wet regimes
in Crete and Cyprus. The upper Euphrates valley and upper Mesopotamia are also wet,
but the plains around Adana and the north Levantine coast are dry.
The linear combination of all eigenvectors for January 1972 results in the PDI pattern
of Figure 7. This pattern satisfies almost all the requisites of the Bronze Age migration
pattern save two. It is severely dry around Patrai (though there is near-normal precipita-
tion) and around Adana and the north Levantine coast (where below normal January
precipitation can only acerbate the drought situation). Although the inconsistencies
around Patrai could, perhaps, be explained by a lack of resolution in the station grid,
the drought in the Levant seems real. It is interesting to note that Ugarit was destroyed
by invaders but not resettled. The main Philistine and Tjekker settlements along the
coast were to the south.

10 Some Anatolian scholars believe that the Lycians migrated from northwestern to southwestern
Anatolia sometime after the end of the Bronze Age (MacQueen, 1968; Mellart, 1968), which is con-
sistent with the fourth January eigenvector. However, the author finds this theory inconsistent with
Greek tradition. On the other hand, Herodotos (Histories, 1.173) records a Lycian tradition which
holds that their ancestors crossed over to the mainland from Crete. A Cretan homeland can be recon-
ciled with what is known from documentary sources of the Bronze Age Lukka. There is also good
onomastic evidence connecting Luwian speaking peoples (e.g., Lycians) with Crete. Nonetheless the
author suspects that the Lycians were already well established in southwest Anatolia in the Bronze
Age. Paralleling the redistribution of Greek speaking peoples, probably only part of the Lycian popu-
lation migrated in the turmoil attendant on the end of that era.
 I00 80
RIZE I00
ISTANBUL
r~
40
SIVAS
I 34,J6

IZMIR
,~oVAN
-oo9,6
DIYARBAKIR

/ I IO,G.5
23 ~
URFA
8O

IPo
HIRAKLION~ ""~" 4 0
.~IIR EZZOR
~ 6 o NICO! )48, 77
3.A'8S
60

January 1972 "-~--.

oPalmer Drought Indices
r149
9 Precipitation as Percentage of 1951-76
Normals (in italics, contoured)

Fig. 7. Palmer drought indices and precipitation as a percentage o f 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 7 6 normals (in italics) for January 1972 9 The latter item is contoured.
194 Barry Weiss

6. Discussion

What, if anything, may be concluded from this study? In all candor, we have shown little
more than that a drought pattern has occurred in modern data with large scale features
that more or less satisfy the requirements necessary to drive such a migration scheme as
occurred at the end of the Late Bronze Age. This must not be construed as proof that
such a pattern dominated climatic conditions of that period of antiquity. Indeed, with
data currently at hand no such proof could be forthcoming.
Donley (1971) and Bryson et al. (1974) looked at Greek weather data at 17 stations
for the period 1952-1966. They observed a common and recurring pattern among the
January eigenvectors that dominated the winter of 1954-55 and argued that a long term
occurrence of such a pattern could have driven the late Bronze Age population move-
ments within Greece. At the inception of this study, I had fully expected to augment
their work, by finding that the dominant eigenvector for January 1955, when extended
to Anatolia and Syria, would also hold consistent with the supposed migrational move-
ments out of the eastern Aegean basin. Unfortunately this was not the case. The dominant
eigenvector for January 1955 that emerged from this study was the first with a positive
coefficient (Figure 5). This pattern displays little resemblance to that found by Donley
(1971) for Greece. Moreover, the pattern east of the Aegean cannot be reconciled in any
way with population movements to the Levant c. 1200 B.C. This pattern would almost
demand movement from the Levant to Greece (Figure 8)!
Part of the problem is no doubt attributable to the different data bases utilized in the
two studies, which suggests that the resultant eigenvectors are quite sensitive to the
stations chosen. On the other hand, there are a number of conjectures on which both
studies rest which are not totally satisfied. It was assumed that moisture holding properties
of soils were everywhere the same, which is certainly not the case. Soils in much of Greece
and Turkey are poor, but there exist some very fertile areas. More importantly, both
studies may have placed far too much emphasis on winter precipitation. Spring precipita-
tion is certainly an important factor for wheat production at a number os Turkish sites.
A USDA study (Coffing, 1973) indicated that fall andspring precipitation were correlated
to Turkish wheat yields, but that in winter, temperature was the important variable.
Furthermore the effects of climatological variables are not necessarily constant over the
entire study area, nor even for the more limited area investigated by Donley.
The principle component method itself presents problems. We examined the five most
important eigenvectors for December, nine for January, and five for February. Only the
fourth January eigenvector presented features required to drive the Bronze Age migration
pattern. Our case would have been strengthened had we found similar patterns for De-
cember and February (as Donley did). As one adds more weather stations to the study, one
increases the number of eigenvectors. Many of them are of little or no consequence in
explaining the variance, but nonetheless there is a proliferation of patterns available
from which to fred that for which one is searching. When one allows for the linear com-
bination of eigenvectors to produce the desired pattern, one is presented with a surfeit
of building blocks from which, the author suspects, one can find an analogue to almost
 4O
\
8O
160 14r~--tu'"'"='"
. , l/ .~. .- . . . . . / ~ -- %'~ SAMSUN
80 /

KERKYRA

SIVAS
KARA
ERZINCAN

g AFYON

KONYA
26
METHONI~ 9 KAIV
IIO

PO 74.~,..
I00 HIRAKLION
~ Io~ 40
EZZOR
80.60
80

Fig. 8. Precipitation as a percentage of 1951 1966 normals for January 1955. The percentages for Greek weather stations were interpolated from Figure
1 in Bryson e t al. (1974).
196 Barry Weiss

any pre-determined migration pattern.

We have then, perhaps, come as far as principle component analysis can take us.
Principle components can not, by themselves, prove the occurrence of drought in antiquity.
Even the proxy climate evidence introduced by Donley (1971) to support the thesis of
climatic change c. 1200 B.C. (e.g., flooding on the Hungarian plain, African lake levels,
Caspian Sea levels, glacial movements, etc.) lacks the time resolution required to establish
its relevancy to population movements in the eastern Mediterranean. Yet the magnitude
of the collapse at the end of the Bronze Age needs an explanation and climatic change
remains an attractive solution to the problem.
Surely the best means of determining what happened at the end of the Bronze Age is
the collection and analysis of high resolution proxy material such as tree ring and pollen
sequences. Kuniholm (1978) has begun to assemble tree-ring chronologies from Turkey
and Greece. He reports that one sequence from Gordion in central Anatolia may provide
evidence for drought in the late thirteenth century B.C., but the chronology is disjoint
with those extending into the modern period and consequently must be dated by archae-
ological means. Although the errors introduced by such uncertainties are not large, none-
theless they are serious enough, so that it becomes impossible to synchronize the drought
precisely with historical events. Furthermore, a drought in one central Anatolian locale
cannot be extrapolated to the entire region. An assemblage of tree ring sequences reaching
back into the Bronze Age is required before this technique can be utilized to investigate
past spatial drought patterns.
Another promising, though at this time highly speculative, avenue to deciphering the
ancient climate is the investigation of the radiocarbon record. Eddy (1976)has published
a list of anomalies in that record going back several thousand years believed to be caused
by major excursions in solar activity. The rate of production of radiocarbon atoms is
inversely related to solar activity, i.e. as solar activity increases radiocarbon production
declines. The latest anomaly was synchronous with the intensely studied Maunder Mini-
mum of the last half of the seventeenth century A.D., a period which exhibited a marked
reduction in phenomena associated with an active sun, such as sunspots and auroras.
The pertinent question is whether changes in solar activity manifest themselves on
earth in a change of climate. The evidence, though not conclusive, is highly suggestive in
the affirmative. The Maunder Minimum was coincident in part with the climatic episode
known as the Little Ice Age, which was characterized in Europe by some of the coldest
weather since the end of the Pleistocene. On the other hand, the twelfth century A.D.,
a period of high solar activity, was the warmest century in Western Europe in the last
thou.sand years. Unfortunately, we do not know at present what effect, if any, these
excursions in solar activity had on the climate in the eastern Mediterranean.
Remarkably, the years c..1420-1260 B.C. were also a time of low solar activity as
determined from the radiocarbon record. This period was coincident with the most
prosperous years of the Late Bronze Age and it ended at about the time the civilized
world fell into decline. The next excursion in solar activity, again a minimum, began c.
820 B.C., very near the onset of the renaissance in the eastern Mediterranean. In other
words, the Dark Ages were bracketed by two periods of reduced solar activity. If it can
 The Decline of Late Bronze Age Civilization as a Possible Response to Climatic Change 197

be shown that a period o f low solar activity, like the Maunder Minimum, is correlated
to a cool, wet regime in the eastern Mediterranean, then the cause o f the catastrophe
at the end o f the Bronze Age m a y more plausibly be attributed to climatic change. The
Maunder Minimum was recent enough that its climatic character in Anatolia and the
Middle East might be recovered from the copious archives of the Ottoman Empire and
tree ring chronologies. Such a pursuit might also provide a key to the effects o f climatic
change on other episodes in human history of general cultural decline and widespread
migration.

Acknowledgements

An earlier version o f this paper was presented at the International Conference on Climate
and History convened in Norwich, England, 8 - 1 4 July 1979. The author wishes to thank
the Climate Research Unit, School o f Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
for providing travel funds to attend the conference. Acknowledgements go also to Allan
H. Murphy o f Oregon State University, formerly of the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), Boulder, Colo. for computer time and Mike Shibao who drew the
maps.

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Carpenter, R. : 1966,Discontinuity in Greek Civilization, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
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(Received December 20, 1979 ; in revised form July 10,1981).