Global Warming 101 (Science 101 Series) Bruce E. Johansen 2008 Greenwood Press

Global Warming 101
Recent Titles in the

Science 101 Series
Evolution 101
Janice Moore and Randy Moore
Biotechnology 101
Brian Robert Shmaefsky
Cosmology 101
Kristine M. Larsen
Genetics 101
Michael Windelspecht
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Global Warming 101
Bruce E. Johansen
Science 101
GREENWOOD PRESS
Westport, Connecticut r London
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Johansen, Bruce E. (Bruce Elliott), 1950–

Global warming 101 / Bruce E. Johansen.
p. cm. — (Science 101, ISSN 1931–3950)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978–0–313–34690–3 (alk. paper)
1. Global warming. 2. Greenhouse gases. I. Title.
QC981.8.G56J639 2008
363.738 74—dc22 2008000052
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data is available.
Copyright
C 2008 by Bruce E. Johansen
All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be

reproduced, by any process or technique, without the
express written consent of the publisher.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 2008000052
ISBN-13: 978–0–313–34690–3
ISSN: 1931–3950
First published in 2008
Greenwood Press, 88 Post Road West, Westport, CT 06881
An imprint of Greenwood Publishing Group, Inc.
www.greenwood.com
Printed in the United States of America
The paper used in this book complies with the

Permanent Paper Standard issued by the National
Information Standards Organization (Z39.48–1984).
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
Series Foreword ix
Introduction xi
Feedback Loops and Tipping Points xii
Human Influences, as the Dominant Climate Change
Influence xiii
Writings About Global Warming Increase Rapidly xiv
Outline of the Book xv
1. Global Warming Science: The Basics 1

Composition of Earth’s Atmosphere 1
History of the Greenhouse Effect as an Idea 2
Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere 3
The Use of Energy from Fossil Fuels Continues to Increase 6
Greenhouse Gases and Wintertime Warming 8
Feedback Loops: Global Warming’s “Compound Interest” 9
Soot: A “Wild Card” in Global Warming 11
The Abrupt Nature of Climate Change 11
The Sun as a Major “Driver” of Climate Change 12
Once upon a Green Venus? 13
Surface Warming, Stratospheric Cooling, and Ozone
Depletion 14
2. Specific Issues in Global Warming Science 17
Could Europe’s Heat of 2003 Become Typical? 17
Drought and Deluge 19
Drought and Deluge: Many Examples 21
Warming and Spreading Deserts 23
Global Warming and Hurricanes 24
vi Contents
Warming and North America’s Water Supplies 29

Warming and Wild Weather in Great Britain 31
An “Orderly Retreat” of Government from London? 32
Palm Trees and Banana Plants in English Gardens? 32
Wildfires, Drought, and Floods Increase in Australia 34
Japan: Heat Island Tokyo 35
3. Melting Ice 39
Erosion of Arctic Ice 41
Personal Stories of Climate Change 41
Surface Albedo (Reflectivity) Speeds Warming 43
“Drunken Forests” 45
Spruce Beetle Outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula 46
Shishmaref, Alaska Is Washing into the Sea 47
Ice Melt in Greenland 48
Polar Bears under Pressure 50
Climate Contradictions in Antarctica 54
Ice Shelves Collapse 55
The Speed of Ice Melt: A Slow-motion Disaster? 57
Antarctic Warming and the Ocean Food Web 58
Mountain Glaciers in Retreat 60
Disintegration of Glaciers in the High Alps 64
Andes Glaciers’ Retreat 66
4. Rising Seas 73
The Penetration of Warming into the Oceans 74
The Stakes of Sea Level Rise 75
Sea Level Rise: Local Examples 76
Sea Level Rise May Speed Up 78
Erosion on the Gulf of Mexico Coast 79
Increasing Floods Expected in Bangladesh 81
Warming and Possible Changes in Ocean Circulation 82
Evidence that Thermohaline Circulation May be Breaking
Down 84
Thermohaline Circulation: Debating Points 85
Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels and Acidity in the Oceans
May Kill Marine Life 86
Phytoplankton Depletion and Warming Seas 87
Coral Reefs “on the Edge of Disaster” 87
5. Plants, Animals, and Human Health 97
Mass Extinctions within a Century? 98
Contents vii
Mass Extinctions: What Happened 250 Million Years Ago? 98

Reduced Crop Yields 101
Warming May Reduce Rice Yields 102
Changes for Plants and Animals with Small Temperature
Variations 103
Species Moving Toward the Poles 105
Warming, Deforestation, and the Devastation of Mountain
Habitats 110
Frogs Threatened Worldwide 112
Warming and the Decline of Oregon’s Western Toad 112
Seabirds Starve as Waters Warm 113
Bird Extinctions: Baltimore without Orioles 115
Bark Beetles Spread Across U.S. West 117
Amazon Valley: Drought, Deforestation, and Warming 118
Poison Ivy: Our Itchy Future 118
Palms in Southern Switzerland 119
Effects on Human Health 120
Global Warming and the Spread of Diseases 121
Malaria in a Warmer World 123
Deaths from Heat Waves 125
Health Benefits from Warming? 127
6. Solutions 133
Changing the Ways We Use Energy 133
A Moratorium on Coal-fired Electricity without
Sequestration 134
Wind Power Capacity Surges 136
The New Solar Power 138
Changes in Personal Transport 140
Aviation: The Most Carbon-Inefficient Mode of Travel 142
Ethanol: The Right Way, and the Wrong Way 145
Hydrogen Fuel-Celled Transport: No Free Lunch 147
Generate Your Own “Green” Electric Power—and Sell your
Surplus to the Power Company 148
Biomass: Very Basic Stuff 149
Geothermal: Energy Savings from the Earth 150
A Carbon Tax: Charging for Carbon Production 150
Farming Technology Improvements 151
Signals from Europe 152
U.S. States Act on Automobile Efficiency 153
Building Code Changes 154
viii Contents
Is the Kyoto Protocol a Band-Aid or a Dead Letter? 155

Tree Planting and Global Warming: Can New Forests Make
Warming Worse? 156
Problems with Ocean Iron Fertilization 158
Nuclear Power as “Clean” Energy? 160
Deep-sea Injection of Carbon Dioxide: Effects on Life 161
“Creation Care:” Biblical Stewardship of the Earth 164
Glossary 171
Annotated Bibliography 177
Index 187
Series Foreword
What should you know about science? Because science is so central

to life in the 21st century, science educators believe that it is essential
that everyone understand the basic foundations of the most vital and
far-reaching scientific disciplines. Global Warming 101 helps you reach
that goal—this series provides readers of all abilities with an accessible
summary of the ideas, people, and impacts of major fields of scientific
research. The volumes in the series provide readers—whether students
new to the science or just interested members of the lay public—with
the essentials of a science using a minimum of jargon and mathematics.
In each volume, more complicated ideas build upon simpler ones, and
concepts are discussed in short, concise segments that make them more
easily understood. In addition, each volume provides an easy-to-use glos-
sary and an annotated bibliography of the most useful and accessible
print and electronic resources that are currently available.
Introduction
Since the beginning of the industrial age three centuries ago, hu-
mankind has been altering the composition of the atmosphere. We are
carbon-creating creatures. Throughout the twentieth century, we have
assembled an increasing number of machines, all of which produce car-
bon dioxide and other gases that have been changing the atmospheric
balance in ways that retain an increasing amount of heat. In 1910, the
average American used about 1.5 horsepower worth of mechanized en-
ergy; in 1990, largely due to the general acquisition of automobiles,
the average person commanded the power (and the greenhouse gas
effluent) of 130 horsepower (Dornbusch and Poterba, 1991, 53). Even
as awareness of global warming’s problems became more apparent, the
use of fossil fuels continued to increase. The world’s inhabitants con-
sumed about 66.6 million barrels of oil a day in 1990 and 83 million in
2007; the demand for oil in the United States grew 22 percent during
that period. During the same time, the demand in China grew almost
200 percent (Friedman, 2007, A-27).
Bill McKibben commented in the Washington Post, “Consider the
news from the real world, the one where change is measured with satel-
lites and thermometers, not focus groups . . . Shaken scientists see every
prediction about the future surpassed by events. As Martin Parry, co-
chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, told reporters
this month, ‘We are all used to talking about these impacts coming in
the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Now we know that it’s
us’” (McKibben, 2007, A-19).
Global temperatures spiked starting in the late 1980s, repeatedly
breaking records set only a year or two earlier. The warmest years in
recorded history thus far has been 2006 and 2007, breaking the record
set in 2005, which exceeded 1998’s benchmark. According to NASA’s
xii Introduction
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the 11 warmest years since reliable
records have been kept on a global scale (roughly 1890) occurred after
1995.
Carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse gases,” such as methane, ni-
trous oxides, and chloroflourocarbons (CFCs), retain heat in the atmo-
sphere. The proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose from
280 parts per million to roughly 365 parts per million as the new mil-
lennium dawned on the Christian calendar. By 2007, this level stood at
380 parts per million. Other greenhouse gases have also risen sharply.
During the 1990s, a vivid public debate grew around the world regarding
how much warmer the earth may become, and why.
Before the end of this century, the urgency of global warming will
become obvious to everyone. Solutions to our fossil fuel dilemma—solar,
wind, hydrogen, and others—will evolve during this century. Within our
century, necessity will compel invention. Other technologies may develop
that have not, as yet, even broached the realm of present-day science
fiction, any more than digitized computers had in the days that the
Wright Brothers took the first aircraft into the sky a little more than
100 years ago. We will take this journey because the changing climate,
along with our own innate curiosity and creativity, requires new ways
of creating and using the energy that is vital to our lives. Such change
will not take place at once. Changes in basic energy technology may
require the better part of a century, or longer. Several technologies will
evolve together. Oil-based fuels will continue to be used for purposes
that require it.
FEEDBACK LOOPS AND TIPPING POINTS

Why do scientists insist that global warming is so important when its
serious consequences seem so far in the future? Global warming is a
sneaky, slow-motion, threat. Most people react to what they see and feel
today. Our diplomacy as well as legal, political, and economic actions
follow those perceptions. Nature also takes time to react (scientists call
this delay “thermal inertia”), so we are now feeling the warming pro-
voked by the fossil fuels that were burned about half a century ago. Rise
in sea level runs 100 to 200 years behind the actual burning of fossil
fuels.
Among scientists who keep tabs on the pace of global warming, the
anxiety that the Earth is reaching an ominous threshold, a point of no
return (“tipping point” in some of the scientific literature), has been
rising. Within a decade or two, various feedbacks will speed the pace
of greenhouse warming past any human ability to contain or reverse it.
Introduction xiii
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are rising rapidly, fed, among
other provocations, by the increasing use of fossil fuels in the United
States, melting permafrost, slash-and-burn agriculture in Indonesia and
Brazil, increasing wildfires, as well as rapid industrialization using dirty
coal in China and India.
HUMAN INFLUENCES, AS THE DOMINANT CLIMATE

CHANGE INFLUENCE
According to atmospheric scientists Thomas Karl and Kevin Tren-
berth, as they wrote in Science, natural variations are no longer the major
contribution (or “forcing”) in Earth’s climate. Human contributions
became the major factor about 1950 (Karl and Trenberth, 2003, 1720).
The human overload of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has be-
come the main (although not the only) influence on climate. Among
human causes, land use changes and urbanization (the spread of cities,
which create and retain heat) are adding warmth to the atmosphere,
along with the combustion of fossil fuels, according to Karl and Tren-
berth. The two scientists’ models indicate a 90 percent probability that
temperatures worldwide will rise between 3.1◦ F and 8.9◦ F by the year
2100. They concluded,
There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be
expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested
in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature
and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent,
and sea-level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue
for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and
its associated impacts could be quite disruptive. (Karl and Trenberth, 2003,
1719)
Lord Peter Levene, board chairman of Lloyd’s of London, has said

that terrorism is not the insurance industry’s biggest worry, despite the
fact that his company was the largest single insurer of the World Trade
Center. Levene said that Lloyd’s, along with other large international
insurance companies, is preparing for an increase in weather disasters
related to global warming (Newkirk, 2003, 3-D). During January 2005,
Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-
mate Change (IPCC), said, with regard to global warming, “We are
risking the ability of the human race to survive” (Hertsgaard, 2005).
Following his assignment as chief weapons inspector in Iraq, Hans
Blix said, “To me the question of the environment is more ominous
than that of peace and war. We will have regional conflicts and use of
xiv Introduction
force, but world conflicts I do not believe will happen any longer. But the
environment, that is a creeping danger. I’m more worried about global
warming than I am of any major military conflict” (Hans Blix’s, 2003,
D-2). Sir John Houghton, cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, agreed. “Global warming is already upon us,” he said.
“The impacts of global warming are such that that I have no hesitation
in describing it as a weapon of mass destruction” (Kambayashi, 2003,
A-17).
As a country, the United States of America produces almost a quarter
of the world’s greenhouse gases. The United States and China together
produce almost half of these gases. Ice core records from Antarctica
indicate that present-day levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
are higher now than at any time in at least the past 800,000 years (as far
as the records extend as of this writing). Levels of greenhouse gases are
also increasing at a rate faster than at any other time during that period.
By the end of the twenty-first century, if this rate of increase continues,
we may have as much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere as during the
age of the dinosaurs, when the Earth was much warmer, and permanent
ice was very rare.
Marine and atmospheric scientist Mike Raupach, who cochairs the
Global Carbon Project at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and In-
dustrial Research Organization (CSIRO), said that 7.9 billion metric
tons of carbon were emitted into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide in
2005. “From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions
was more than 2.5 percent per year, whereas in the 1990s it was less than
one percent per year,” he said (Growth of Global, 2006). Paul Fraser, also
with CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, said that atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide grew by two parts per million in 2005,
the fourth year in a row of above average growth. “To have four years
in a row of above-average carbon dioxide growth is unprecedented,”
said Fraser, who is the program manager for the CSIRO Measurement,
Processes & Remote Sensing Program (Growth of Global, 2006).
WRITINGS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING INCREASE RAPIDLY
The amount of writing describing the science of global warming (and
debates about it) increased very rapidly during the two decades after
the 1980s. emerging from several scientific fields, including climatol-
ogy, oceanography, several of the Earth sciences, as well as sociology,
anthropology, and economics. The field’s development has been so re-
cent, spreading across so many fields of study, that a body of standard
reference works does not yet exist. One problem that confronts anyone
Introduction xv
who attempts to write such references is that material is accumulating

very quickly.
For example, the age of the oldest measurements taken from Antarc-
tic ice cores increased from 260,000 years to 800,000 years within one
decade. A few months after the first reports of 420,000-year-old ice cores,
Paul Pearson of the University of Bristol and Martin Palmer of Impe-
rial College, London, reported in Nature dated August 17, 2000, that a
research team had developed methods for estimating the atmosphere’s
carbon dioxide level to about 60 million years before the present. The
upshot of Pearson and Palmer’s studies is that today’s carbon dioxide
levels were as high as they have been in at least the last 20 million years.
According to their records, however, carbon dioxide levels reached the
vicinity of 2,000 ppm during the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene
periods (from about 60 to 52 million years ago (Pearson and Palmer,
2000, 695). Many of the chapters that follow evoke debates that will con-
tinue to evolve after this reference is published. Students are advised to
keep up with the scientific literature, especially accounts published in
Nature and Science, as well as more specialized journals such as Geophysical
Research Letters and Climatic Change.
OUTLINE OF THE BOOK
This book has been prepared for high school students, but it can
also be read by anyone who wants a compact, plain-spoken guide to the
science of global warming. We begin here with a brief introduction to
the issue and continue with an examination of basic issues, followed
by important controversies in the body of the science. The book then
develops scientific issues related to melting ice, rising seas, and effects
on plants and animals. Global Warming 101 concludes with consideration
of some possible solutions. Global Warming 101 combines a survey of the
science of global warming (and disputes attending it) with reporting
from around the world, from the sinking Pacific islands and thawing
Arctic permafrost, which indicate that significant global warming has
already begun.
Chapter 1, “Global Warming Science: The Basics,” opens with a survey
of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, along with
warming patterns. The greatest warming occurs on winter nights, when
most people might welcome it, with the least on summer afternoons,
when it would be most noticed. Warming is the greatest in the frigid
polar regions and the least in the sweltering tropics. Chapter 1 then
continues with a brief history of the “greenhouse effect” as an idea in
science, followed by a description of feedback loops, by which we do not
xvi Introduction
feel warming in the air until about 50 years after the fossil fuels that cause
it have been used. The rest of the chapter describes specific issues: the
role of soot, how quickly climate change can take place, the role of the
sun as a factor, the climate of Venus (where an intense greenhouse effect
has raised temperatures to more than 850◦ F), and the relationship of
global warming at the surface and the “ozone hole” in the stratosphere.
Chapter 2 continues with scientific issues that affect our everyday lives.
Increasing temperatures also cause storms to become more violent, and
spells of dry weather more intense, in drought-and-deluge cycles. In
some ways these effects on the hydrological cycle (the way that nature
handles water) have already begun as temperatures rise. Many specific
examples are provided here of deluges and droughts in recent years.
A survey also describes the debate regarding global warming as one of
several reasons why hurricanes may become more intense.
One of the most obvious results of a warming planet involve melt-
ing of ice in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers, the subject
of Chapter 3. We begin with an unusual wintertime thunderstorm on
Baffin Island, in the Arctic, followed by a description of the ways in
which climate change has been affecting the lives of Inuit hunters. Next,
“albedo” (reflectivity) is considered as a major reason why the Arctic is
warming faster than any other region of the Earth. As ice melts, it ex-
poses darker ground and ocean surfaces, which absorb more heat and
speeds the pattern. Permafrost is melting in the Arctic, leading to even
more greenhouse gases being released. Some insects, such as the bark
beetle, become more destructive as warmth allows them to breed more
often. Polar bears, on the other hand, are threatened because they hunt
seals, their main food, from sea ice that is shrinking rapidly. Ice shelves
collapse in the Antarctic, and warming threatens the breeding pattern
of plankton, which feed many larger sea creatures. At the same time,
the retreat of ice on tropical mountains threatens the water supplies of
many cities in South America and Asia.
Melting ice raises sea levels, the subject of Chapter 4. By the end
of this century, sea levels may rise 1 to 3 feet, but feedback loops will
guarantee that enough heat is “in the pipeline” to raise the oceans
about 80 feet within about two centuries according to calculations at the
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. We have the makings here
of a planetwide emergency. Take out a map of the world, and look at all
the cities on the coasts of the world. The White House, for example, is
about 60 feet above present-day high tide. One billion people, almost a
sixth of the world’s population, live within 25 meters (about 80 feet) of
sea level. Many cities will be inundated by such a rise in the oceans—New
Introduction xvii
York City, Miami, New Orleans, London, Mumbai, Calcutta, Shanghai,

Manila, to name only a few.
Aside from raising sea levels, warming of the oceans has some surpris-
ing effects on the seas and life in them. The oceans’ circulation patterns
may change, along with their supply of oxygen to sea life. Increasing
levels of carbon dioxide raise the acidity level in the oceans as well,
causing problems for the many forms of sea life in shells. Many coral
reefs (filled with living organisms) may die with just a few degrees of
additional warming.
Chapter 5, “Flora, Fauna, and Human Health,” opens with the sober-
ing news that rapid global warming could be a major factor in the extinc-
tion of many plants and animals. Most plants and animals have specific
temperature ranges, and they may not be able to move fast enough to
adapt. Warming temperatures may also reduce yields of some impor-
tant crops, such as rice. Some forms of life become more numerous
in a warmer habitat, one being jellyfish. Poison ivy also is becoming
larger and more potent. Others species may move northward in the
northern hemisphere, such as butterflies, armadillos, and alligators.
Some of the changes are surprising: loggerhead sea turtles, for exam-
ple, give birth only to females in warm sand. With increase in warm-
ing, they will become extinct. Human beings are more adaptable than
most animals, but they will also suffer from the spread of some dis-
eases, such as malaria. Deaths from heat-related stress also will rise, but
deaths from diseases associated with cold weather (such as influenza) will
decline.
The final chapter considers solutions, most of which involve changes
in how we use energy and moving away from fossil fuels (oil, natural gas,
and coal) toward “renewable” sources such as wind and solar energy.
The taxation system will also change to encourage use of nonfossil fuels.
Some of these steps are already being taken, but the question remains:
are we doing enough, and quickly enough, to avoid worldwide warming
that is gaining speed year by year?
REFERENCES
Dornbusch, Rudiger, and James M. Poterba, eds. Global Warming: Economic Policy
Reponses. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991.
Friedman, Thomas L. “Doha and Dalian.” The New York Times, September 19, 2007,
A-27.
“Growth of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accelerating.” Environment News Ser-
vice, November 29, 2006, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2006/2006-
11-29-02.asp.
“Hans Blix’s Greatest Fear.” The New York Times, March 16, 2003, D-2.
xviii Introduction
Hertsgaard, Mark. “It’s Much Too Late to Sweat Global Warming.” San Francisco
Chronicle, February 13, 2005.
Kambayashi, Takehiko. “World Weather Prompts New Look at Kyoto.” The Washington
Times, September 5, 2003, A-17.
Karl, Thomas R., and Kevin E. Trenberth. “Modern Global Climate Change.” Science
302 (December 5, 2003): 1719–1723.
McKibben, Bill. “The Race Against Warming.” The Washington Post, September 29,
2007, A-19, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/
09/28/AR2007092801400 pf.html.
Newkirk, Margaret. “Lloyd’s Chief Sees no Relief in Premiums; Insurance Firms
Rebuild Reserves.” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 21, 2003, 3-D.
Pearson, Paul N., and Martin R. Palmer. “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentra-
tions Over the Past 60 Million Years.” Nature 406 (August 17, 2000): 695–699.
1
Global Warming
Science: The Basics
COMPOSITION OF EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

The Earth’s atmosphere comprises 78.1 percent nitrogen and 20.9 per-
cent oxygen. All the other gases, including those responsible for the
greenhouse effect, make up only about 1 percent of the atmosphere:
carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is 0.035 percent, methane (CH4 ) is 0.00017 per-
cent, and ozone is about 0.000002 percent. The greenhouse effect is
absolutely necessary to keep the Earth at a temperature that sustains
life as we know it. Earth’s moderate degree of infrared forcing (along
with its blanket of liquid water) keeps the planet habitable. Without the
greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth would be about
33◦ C (60◦ F) colder than today’s average, too cold to sustain the Earth’s
existing plant and animal life. A little carbon dioxide or methane can
hold a great deal of heat, however, and a small change in the atmosphere
as a whole can change temperatures a great deal.
The greenhouse effect is not an idea that is new to science. It has
merely become more easily detectable in our time as temperatures have
risen and scientists have devised more sophisticated ways to measure
and forecast atmospheric processes. The atmospheric balance of “trace”
gases actually started to change beyond natural bounds at the dawn of
the Industrial Age, with the first large-scale burning of fossil fuels. The
greenhouse effect first became noticeable in the 1880s. After an intense
debate, the idea that human activity is warming the Earth in potentially
damaging ways became generally accepted in scientific circles by about
1995.
Taken to extremes, an atmospheric greenhouse effect can be very
unpleasant. Witness perpetually cloudy Venus, with an atmosphere that
is 96 percent carbon dioxide. The surface temperature on Venus, in-
creased considerably by runaway greenhouse warming, is roughly 850◦ F,
2 Global Warming 101
hot enough to melt lead. The planet Mars’ atmosphere is 95 percent

carbon dioxide, but it’s so thin that temperatures on the surface average
−53◦ C.
Carbon dioxide is only the most common of several gases that con-
tribute to global warming, but it is responsible for about half of the
greenhouse effect. Several other gases, including methane, contribute
the other half. Water vapor also plays a role as a greenhouse gas, and as
the air warms, it holds more moisture. The atmosphere holds 6 percent
more water vapor with each 1◦ C rise in temperature.
HISTORY OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AS AN IDEA

The fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution was born in England. As coal-
fired industry (as well as home heating and cooking) filled English skies
with acrid smoke, some English homeowners protested coal’s use as
a fuel. The coal-burning steam engine was invented by Thomas New-
comen in 1712 and refined into a form that was widely adaptable for
industrial processes by James Watt, beginning in 1769.
Within a century of industrialism’s first stirrings, during the 1820s,
Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier, a Frenchman, compared the atmosphere
to a greenhouse. During the 1860s, John Tyndall, an Irishman, devel-
oped the idea of an “atmospheric envelope,” suggesting that water vapor
and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are responsible for retaining heat
radiated from the sun. Tyndall also wrote that the climate might warm
or cool based on the amount of carbon dioxide and other gases in the
atmosphere.
In 1896, Savante August Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, published a
paper in The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and
Journal of Science titled “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air
upon the Temperature of the Ground” (Arrhenius, 1896, 237–276). In
his paper, Arrhenius theorized that a rise in the atmospheric level of
carbon dioxide could raise the temperature of the air. He was not the
only person thinking along these lines at the time; Swedish geologist
Arvid Hogbom had delivered a lecture on the same idea 3 years earlier,
which Arrhenius incorporated into his article. Arrhenius was a well-
known scientist in his own time, not for his theories describing the
greenhouse effect but for his work on electrical conductivity, for which
he was awarded a Nobel Prize in 1903.
By the late 1930s, the prospect of global warming was catching the
eye of G. D. Callendar, a British meteorologist, who gathered records
from more than 200 weather stations around the world to argue that the
Earth had warmed 0.4◦ C between the 1880s and the 1930s because of
Global Warming Science 3
carbon dioxide emissions by industry (Callendar, 1938). While Callen-

dar’s assertions were met with skepticism by many English scientists at
the time, he was laying the foundation for modern-day efforts to make
more precise measurements and designs of climate models to forecast
climate change.
Two decades after Callendar, in 1956, Gilbert Plass, a scientist at Johns
Hopkins University in Baltimore, suggested that carbon dioxide has an
important influence on climate. He also projected that burning of fossil
fuels would raise the global temperature 1.1◦ C (2◦ F) by the end of the
century, very close to the actual worldwide increase. In 1957, Roger Rev-
elle and Hans Suess warned, as part of the International Geophysical
Year, that human beings were carrying out a large-scale geophysical ex-
periment by returning to the atmosphere and oceans the concentrated
organic carbon stored in sedimentary rocks over hundreds of millions
of years.
Revelle would become known to the world years later as the mentor
of a graduate student, Albert Gore, who, in 1992 (a year after Revelle
died), was elected the vice president of the United States (and narrowly
lost the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000). The same year, Gore
published a book, Earth in the Balance, which argued for mitigation of
the greenhouse effect. In 2007, Gore won an Oscar for his documentary
film “An Inconvenient Truth.” In 2007, jointly with the scientists of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Gore was awarded the
Nobel Peace Prize.
INCREASING LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN

THE ATMOSPHERE
For the past two centuries, and at a faster rate in recent years, the basic
composition of the Earth’s atmosphere has been changed by the burning
of fossil fuels. Human-induced warming of Earth’s climate (“infrared
forcing” to scientists) is emerging as one of the major scientific, social,
and economic issues of the twenty-first century, as the effects of climate
change become evident in everyday life in locations as varied as the small
island nations of the Pacific Ocean and the shores of the Arctic Ocean.
Carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases hold heat in
the atmosphere. As levels of these gases have risen, so have global tem-
peratures, with most of the warmest years in the world’s temperature
record (instrumental records exist for about a century and a half) hav-
ing occurred within the last decade. By 2007, 12 of the warmest years
globally had occurred within the previous 13 years. This is true of indi-
vidual locations as well. In August 2007, Atlanta, Georgia, saw 5 of its 10
Global average temperatures, 1880 to the present ( Jeff Dixon)
hottest days on record during a single heat wave. Also, in 2007, Phoenix
registered 32 days at 110◦ F or higher.
Today, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels, the amount of
heat-retaining gases in the atmosphere is increasing rapidly. In a century
and a half of rapid worldwide industrialization, after about 1850, the
proportion of carbon dioxide has risen from roughly 280 to about 380
ppm. By the year 2006, scientists had estimated the composition of
the atmosphere to roughly 60 million years in the past. The level of
carbon dioxide today is believed, according to such measurements, to
be as high now as it has been in at least 20 million years. During the
half-century since Charles Keeling and colleagues first devised ways to
measure carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere precisely, the figure
has risen from about 315 ppm to today’s 380 ppm.
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere jumped suddenly between
2000 and 2004, according to calculations published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences in 2007. The rate of increase nearly
tripled over the average rate in the 1990s. Instead of rising by 1.1 percent
a year, as in the previous decade, emissions grew by an average of 3.1
percent a year from 2000 to 2004. “Despite the scientific consensus that
carbon emissions are affecting the world’s climate, we are not seeing
evidence of progress in managing those emissions,” said Chris Field,

the director of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology
in Stanford, California, a coauthor of the report. The growth rate of
emissions exceeds even the most pessimistic of six options presented in
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s assessments (Boyd,
2007, A-8; Raupach et al., 2007, 10,288).
Carbon dioxide emissions were 35 percent higher in 2006 than in
1990, a much faster growth rate than anticipated, researchers led by
Josep G. Canadell of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Indus-
trial Research Organization reported in the October 23, 2007, edition
of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Much of the increase
is being traced to the reduction of the oceans’ ability to remove ad-
ditional carbon dioxide from the air as water temperatures increase.
According to the new study, carbon released from burning fossil fuel
and making cement rose from 7.0 billion metric tons per year in 2000 to
8.4 billion metric tons in 2006. A metric ton is 2,205 pounds. Methane
emissions have declined, however, and so greenhouse gases as a whole
are not increasing as much as carbon dioxide alone (Carbon Dioxide,
2007).
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii ( Jeff

Dixon)
The Mauna Loa record indicated an 18.8 percent increase in the

mean annual concentration, from 315.98 ppm by volume of dry air in
1959 to 375.64 ppm in 2003. The El Nino-aided 1997–1998 increase of
2.87 ppm was the largest single yearly jump since the Mauna Loa record
began in 1958 (Keeling and Whorf, 2004).
The jump in the emission rate is alarming because it indicates a re-
versal of a long-term trend toward greater energy efficiency and away
from carbon-based fuels, the report’s authors said. (It may also indicate
increasing feedback emissions from such things as melting permafrost.)
Carbon dioxide levels recorded during March 2004 at Hawaii measured
379 ppm. If emissions increase 3.1 percent a year, CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere would rise from the present 380 ppm to 560 ppm in
2050 and 1,390 ppm in 2100, according to Michael Raupach, an atmo-
spheric scientist at the Center for Marine and Atmospheric Research in
Canberra, Australia. “A CO2 future like this would spell major climate-
change disaster in the latter part of the 21st century,” Raupach said
(Boyd, 2007, A-8).
The rapid increases in carbon dioxide levels have raised speculation
among scientists that atmospheric carbon dioxide may be increasing in
a runaway fashion (Keeling and Whorf, 2004). Before 2002, a back-to-
back reading of 2.0 ppm or more had never been recorded, and the only
other years with increases of 2.0 or more (1973, 1988, 1994, and 1998)
had involved El Nino conditions, when warming of ocean waters of the
Pacific near the equator prompt added heat worldwide. No El Nino was
present in 2003 or 2004.
THE USE OF ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS CONTINUES

TO INCREASE
According to British Petroleum’s Statistical Review of World Energy
(2006), global use of energy has doubled since the 1970s, from about
5 million metric tons of oil equivalent to 10.5 million, more than 90
percent of it from fossil fuels. In the United States in 2004, the average
person used 7.9 metric tons of oil equivalent, 3.8 in the United King-
dom, 1.0 in China, and 0.11 in Bangladesh (Hillman and Fawcett, 2007,
38–40).
Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are built
into our everyday lives—our modes of transportation, production, and
consumption. Roughly 80 percent of human industrial activity world-
wide is fueled by the combustion of energy that produces carbon diox-
ide (and, oftentimes, other greenhouse gases as well). The same in-
dustrial processes also produce waste heat in addition to greenhouse
gases. Sometimes these manufactured goods (such as automobiles) also

produce waste heat and greenhouse gases as they are operated. Warming
provoked by greenhouse gases remains in the air for many years, some-
times centuries. An upward trend in temperatures would continue for
at least the next 100 years even if fossil fuel consumption were reduced
sharply today.
Fossil fuel burning is increasing most rapidly in China and other devel-
oping areas, especially India, as populations and industrial production
per capita (per person) rises. Consumption of fossil fuels is increasing
more slowly (and, in some cases, even declining) in the economies of the
United States, Europe, and Japan. “No region is decarbonizing its energy
supply,” a report said (Boyd, 2007, A-8; Raupach et al., 2007, 10,288).
Amidst speculation that China might pass the United States as the
world’s leading source of carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 or 2009, a
report arrived from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
in mid-June 2007 that China had already taken the lead as early as
2006. China, which is experiencing an economic boom fueled mainly
by low-energy (“dirty”) coal and rapidly rising cement manufacturing,
witnessed a rise in CO2 emissions of 9 percent during 2006 (China,
2007). U.S. emissions declined by 1.4 percent in 2006, as compared to
2005. “There will still be some uncertainty about the exact numbers, but
this is the best and most up to date estimate available,” said Jos Olivier, a
scientist who crunched the numbers at the Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency.
Of all industrial processes, cement clinker production is the largest
source of carbon dioxide emissions. Globally, it contributes around 4
percent to the total of CO2 emissions from fuel use and industrial activi-
ties, the Netherlands agency said. Globally, in 2006, CO2 emissions from
fossil fuel use increased by about 2.6 percent, which is less than the 3.3
percent increase in 2005 (China, 2007).
In addition to massive industrial expansion, China since the year 2000
has been adding about 7.5 billion square feet of residential and commer-
cial real estate per year, as much as all the existing retail shopping malls
in the United States, according to the United States Energy Information
Administration (Kahn and Yardley, 2006). An increasing proportion of
this space is air-conditioned. In addition, most Chinese buildings, even
the new ones, have little or no thermal insulation and require twice as
much energy to heat or cool as the same amount of floor space as a
similar climate in the United States or Europe, according to the World
Bank. China has energy efficiency standards, but most new buildings do
not meet them (Kahn and Yardley, 2006).
To light, heat, and cool all this new space (as well as industrial plants
that produce so many exported goods), China in 2005 alone added 66
gigawatts of electricity, as much as Great Britain’s annual demand. In
2006, it added 102 gigawatts, the total demand of France. Two-thirds
of this new power is generated using coal. China has built small, inex-
pensive coal-fired plants that only rarely use the latest more efficient
combined-cycle turbines (Kahn and Yardley, 2006).
GREENHOUSE GASES AND WINTERTIME WARMING

The Northern Hemisphere has been warming most quickly during
the winter months in the last 30 years, according to a computer climate
model developed by NASA scientists. They found that greenhouse gases,
more than any of the other factors, increase the strength of polar winds
that regulate the Northern Hemisphere climate in winter. The polar
winds that play a large role in the wintertime climate of the Northern
Hemisphere blow in the stratosphere, eventually mixing with air and
influencing weather close to the Earth’s surface. The findings of Drew
Shindell, Gavin Schmidt, and other atmospheric scientists from NASA’s
Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University appeared
in the April 16, 2001, issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research (Shindell
et al., 2001, 7193).
Shindell and his colleagues asserted that increases in greenhouse
gases contribute to persistence of stronger polar winds into the spring-
time and contribute to a warmer early-spring climate in the Northern
Hemisphere. A stronger wind circulation around the North Pole in-
creases temperature difference between the pole and the midlatitudes.
Shindell said that the Southern Hemisphere isn’t affected by increas-
ing greenhouse gases the same way, because it’s colder and the polar
wind circulation over the Antarctic is already very strong (O’Carroll,
2001).
“Surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have warmed
during winter months as much as to 9 degrees F during the last three
decades, over 10 times more than the global annual average 0.7 degree
Fahrenheit,” said Shindell. “Warmer winters will also include more wet
weather in Europe and western North America, with parts of western
Europe the worst hit by storms coming off the Atlantic” (O’Carroll,
2001). Year-to-year changes in the polar winds are quite large, according
to Shindell, “[b]ut over the past 30 years, we have tended to see stronger
winds and warming, indicative of continually increasing greenhouse
gases” (O’Carroll, 2001).
Ss
Heading Toward a “Tipping Point”
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) estimates that a car-
bon dioxide level of about 450 ppm will cross a “tipping point” and lead
to “potentially dangerous consequences for the planet” (Research Finds,
2007). With carbon dioxide levels at 383 ppm as of 2007, estimates vary
as to when this dangerous level will be reached. The GISS study says
that a 1◦ C (1.8◦ F) additional temperature rise will place the atmosphere
at peril of crossing this point. James Hansen, director of GISS, said, “If
global emissions of carbon dioxide continue to rise at the rate of the past
decade, this research shows that there will be disastrous effects, including
increasingly rapid sea-level rise, increased frequency of droughts and floods,
and increased stress on wildlife and plants due to rapidly shifting climate
zones.” According to Makiko Sato of Columbia University’s Earth Institute,
“[T]he Temperature limit implies that CO2 exceeding 450 p.p.m. is almost
surely dangerous, and the ceiling may be even lower” (Research Finds,
2007).
Ss
FEEDBACK LOOPS: GLOBAL WARMING’S

“COMPOUND INTEREST”
Present-day political debates respond mainly to the degree of warm-
ing that people feel today. In reality, however, the warmth felt today
reflects fossil fuel emissions of several decades ago. The climate system
is never actually in thermodynamic equilibrium. Rather, it is forever play-
ing catch-up with the daily and seasonal variations of incoming sunlight,
as the ground tries to come into thermal equilibrium with changes in
solar radiation. This is where the heat capacity of the ocean, ground, and
atmosphere come into play, as well as the thermal “opacity” (degree to
which light is blocked) of the atmosphere, which regulates how readily
heat energy from the ground can be radiated to space.
How much time remains before critical feedbacks lock into place? In
January 2005, a world task force of senior politicians, business leaders,
and academics warned that the point of no return could be reached
within a decade. Their report, Meeting the Climate Challenge, was the first
to place a figure on the length of time remaining before feedbacks
provoked by humanity’s contributions to climate change commit the
Earth to disastrous changes, including widespread agricultural failure,
water shortages and major droughts, increased disease, sea level rise,
and the death of forests (Byers and Snowe, 2005, 1).
This report asserted that the “tipping point” would be reached af-
ter the average world temperature increased 2◦ C above the average
prevailing in 1750, before the Industrial Revolution began. By 2005,
temperatures had already risen by an average of 0.8◦ C, with another
0.5◦ C “in the pipeline” from thermal inertia not yet realized. The re-
port also asserted that the tipping point would occur as atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide passed 400 ppm. With the level at 383
ppm in 2007, rising at about 2 ppm a year, that threshold was less than a
decade away. The report was assembled by the Institute for Public Policy
Research in the United Kingdom, the Center for American Progress in
the United States, and The Australia Institute. The group’s chief scien-
tific adviser was Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the United Nations’
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (McCarthy, 2005, 1).
The report concluded, “Above the 2-degree level, the risks of abrupt,
accelerated, or runaway climate change also increase. The possibilities
include reaching climatic tipping points leading, for example, to the
loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets (which, between
them, could raise sea level more than 10 meters over the space of a few
centuries), the shutdown of the thermohaline ocean circulation (and,
with it, the Gulf Stream), and the transformation of the planet’s forests
and soils from a net sink of carbon to a net source of carbon” (McCarthy,
2005, 1).
Many climate scientists believe that the middle of the twenty-first cen-
tury will witness dramatic increase in rates of global warming. At about
this time, various feedback loops are expected to compound human-
induced increases in greenhouse gas levels and, consequently, world-
wide temperatures. These include several natural processes that add
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, such as melting permafrost in the
Arctic and changes in albedo (reflectivity) in polar regions where ice
has been melting and will continue to melt.
In the further future, another more dangerous feedback could come
into play. Once the ocean becomes warm enough (the date is uncertain,
perhaps hundreds of years) solid methane deposits at the bottom of the
oceans, called clathrates, may turn to liquid, then to gas, further raising
the level of methane in the air as they bubble into the atmosphere.
Scientists have developed this idea as the “methane gun” or “methane
burp” hypothesis. Like the melting of permafrost, this natural process
may be triggered by a human-induced overload of carbon dioxide and
methane and could then build upon itself like a bank account drawing
an environmentally dangerous form of compound interest. The danger,
according to many people who are familiar with the history of the climate
of Earth is this: Once this journey has begun in earnest, any return trip
may be impossible. In the very least, it will cause a great deal of pain and
suffering.
SOOT: A “WILD CARD” IN GLOBAL WARMING

Atmospheric soot, often a by-product of industry, is contributing to
the rapid heating of the Earth’s atmosphere, according to an increasing
body of research. Microscopic carbon particles in air have long been
linked to respiratory ailments, but scientists are trying to improve their
understanding of how smoke in the air interacts with sunlight and chem-
icals to influence global warming.
Dirty snow containing even small amounts (measured in parts per
billion) of soot may be responsible for as much as a quarter of recent
temperature rises in polar regions, according to NASA research. James
Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko, climate specialists at GISS in New York
City have said that even small amounts of soot contained in fossil fuel
emissions (most notably diesel exhausts) absorb more sunlight and in-
hibit the reflection of light and its heat back into space. Soot also causes
snow to melt more quickly, contributing to changing reflectivity and,
eventually, rising sea levels, Hansen and Nazarenko said in an article in
the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Hansen and Nazarenko,
2004, 423–428). Before this study, soot usually had not been factored
into climate models projecting global warming’s speed and scope.
THE ABRUPT NATURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climatologists have been sharing the disturbing idea that small shifts
in global conditions may lead to sudden and abrupt climate changes.
The National Academy of Sciences has warned that global warming
could trigger “large, abrupt and unwelcome” climatic changes that could
severely affect ecosystems and human society (McFarling, 2001, A-30).
“We need to deal with this because we are likely to be surprised,” said
Richard Alley, a Pennsylvania State University climate expert. “It’s as
if climate change were a light switch instead of a dimmer dial,” Alley
said (McFarling, 2001, A-30). The report, which was commissioned by
the U.S. Global Change Research Program, includes a plea for more
research on the links between the land, oceans and ice that may trigger
abrupt change. Alley also suggests that many of today’s models of cli-
mate change are too simple because they do not include such changes
(McFarling, 2001, A-30).
“Although abrupt climate change can occur for many reasons, it is
conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the
probability of large, abrupt events,” wrote a team led by Alley (Alley

et al., 2003, 2005). At times, they wrote, regional temperature changes
one-third to one-half as large as those associated with 100,000-year ice
age cycles have taken place on a time scale of a decade (Alley et al., 2003,
2005). Increasing precipitation extremes—from deluge to drought and
back again—may also be associated with abrupt temperature changes.
An intense drought that played a major role in destroying the classic
Mayan civilization may be an example of such a change (Alley et al.,
2003, 2005–2006). Regional temperature changes of 8◦ to 16◦ C have
been known, from the history of climate, to have occurred within a few
years. Such changes have, in the past, most likely occurred during the
beginning or end of ice ages (Alley et al., 2003, 2006).
Alley has described “threshold transitions” to be like leaning over the
side of a canoe: “Leaning slightly over the side of a canoe will cause only
a small tilt, but leaning slightly more may roll you and the craft into the
lake” (Alley et al., 2003, 2006). At just the right point, a small “forcing”
may set into motion a very large climatic change.
THE SUN AS A MAJOR “DRIVER” OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Humankind’s use of fossil fuels is only one influence on climate,
although it grows relatively more powerful as the atmosphere’s overload
of greenhouse gases increases. Another important shaper of climate
has been cycles initiated by the sun’s generation of the energy that
sustains all life on Earth. A team writing in Nature found that the level
of sunspot activity during the last two-thirds of the twentieth century
was “exceptional,” the highest in roughly 8,000 years (Solanki et al.,
2004, 1084–1086). While the sun’s cycles have had long-term effects on
climate, these authors asserted that “solar variability is unlikely to have
been the dominant cause of the strong warming during the past three
decades” (Solanki et al., 2004, 1084).
In a paper published online by Science (www.scinceexpress.org), pale-
oceanographer Gerard Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
in Palisades, New York, and colleagues reported that the climate of the
northern North Atlantic has warmed and cooled nine times in the past
12,000 years in step with changes on the surface of the sun. “It really
looks like the sun has mattered to climate,” said Richard Alley. “The
Bond, et al. data are sufficiently convincing that [solar variability] is now
the leading hypothesis,” said Alley, to explain the roughly 1,500-year
oscillation of climate seen since the last ice age, including the Little Ice
Age of the seventeenth century (Kerr, 2001, 1431). This cycle is now in
a rising mode and “could also add to the greenhouse warming of the
next few centuries,” according to a report by Richard Kerr in Science

(Kerr, 2001, 1431). According to Alley (cited by Kerr), solar variations
can “gain leverage on the atmosphere” by changing circulation patterns
in the stratosphere, which would then affect the lower atmosphere and,
finally, ocean circulation, where they would affect such climate drivers
as the rate at which “deep water” forms in polar regions (Kerr, 2001,
1432).
ONCE UPON A GREEN VENUS?

All planets’ ecosystems change over time, a fact that may be unsettling
to students of the greenhouse effect on Earth who cast their eyes upon
Venus, where catastrophic global warming has raised surface temper-
atures to a toasty 850◦ F (464◦ C). Some contemporary theories argue
that Venus may have once experienced a climate much more like that
of today’s Earth, “complete with giant rivers, deep oceans and teeming
with life” (Leake, 2002, 11). Two British scientists believe that they have
found some evidence that rivers the size of the Amazon once flowed for
thousands of miles across the Venusian landscape, emptying into liquid
water seas. According to a report by Jonathan Leake in the London
Sunday Times, these scientists used radar images from a NASA probe to
Surface of Venus ( Jeff Dixon)

trace the river systems, deltas, and other features they say could have
been created only by moving water (Leake, 2002, 11).
Because of its thick cloud cover and searing surface temperatures, no
one on Earth knew much about Venusian topography until 1990, when
NASA’s Magellan probe used radar to penetrate the clouds and map the
surface of Venus. Magellan’s images showed that the surface had been
carved by large river-like channels that scientists at the time thought
were caused by volcanic lava flows. Jones and colleagues reanalyzed the
same images using latest computer technology and found they were too
long to have been created by lava (Leake, 2002, 11).
Adrian Jones, a planetary scientist at the University College London,
who carried out the research, said the findings suggested life on Venus
could have evolved roughly parallel with Earth’s. “If the climate and tem-
perature were right for water to flow, then they would have been right
for life, too. It suggests life could once have existed there” (Leake, 2002,
11). Studies compiled by David Grinspoon of the Southwest Research
Institute at Boulder, Colorado, suggest that Venus may have been hab-
itable for as long as 2 billion years, before an accelerated greenhouse
effect dried its oceans.
Roughly 20 space exploration missions to Venus have returned
enough data to construct an image of Venus today as a hellishly hot
place: “[I]ts skies dominated by clouds of sulfuric acid, poisoned fur-
ther by hundreds of huge volcanoes that belch lava and gases into an at-
mosphere lashed by constant hurricane winds” (Leake, 2002, 11). Venus
differs from Earth in one important respect: it has no tectonic plates that
permit stresses to express themselves a little at a time, via earthquakes
and volcanic eruptions. The scientists’ research suggests that as recently
as 500,000 years ago something (perhaps a surge of volcanic eruptions,
long contained by the lack of tectonics) triggered runaway global warm-
ing that destroyed the Venusian climate and eventually boiled away the
oceans (Leake, 2002, 11). According to this research, warming on Venus
may have been accelerated by heat released into its atmosphere by bil-
lions of tons of carbon dioxide from rocks and, possibly, vegetation.
Today, Venus’ atmosphere is mainly carbon dioxide.
SURFACE WARMING, STRATOSPHERIC COOLING,

AND OZONE DEPLETION
Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere near the surface like a blan-
ket, holding heat near the surface. Deprived of emitted warmth, the
stratosphere cools, aggravating depletion of ozone, which protects plants
and animals from ultraviolet radiation. Chemical reactions that drive
ozone depletion tend to accelerate as the stratosphere cools, retarding

the restoration of ozone anticipated after the ban of chlorofluorocar-
bons (CFCs) under the Montreal Protocol, which was enacted during the
late 1980s. As levels of greenhouse gases rise, the cooling of the middle
and upper atmosphere is expected to continue, which will slow recov-
ery from ozone depletion that was expected after CFCs were banned.
Because of this relationship, problems with ozone depletion depend,
in a fundamental way, on reduction of greenhouse warming as well as
elimination of chemicals that consume ozone.
The energetic nature of UV-B radiation can break the bonds of DNA
molecules. While plants and animals are generally able to repair dam-
aged DNA, on occasion damaged DNA molecules can continue to repli-
cate, leading to dangerous forms of skin cancer in humans. The prob-
ability that DNA can be damaged by ultraviolet radiation varies with
wavelength, shorter wavelengths being the most dangerous.
The Antarctic ozone “hole” formed earlier and endured longer dur-
ing the September and October of 2000 than ever before—and by a sig-
nificant amount. Figures from NASA satellite measurements showed that
the hole covered an area of approximately 29 million square kilometers
in early September, exceeding the previous record from 1998. The re-
gion of depleted stratospheric ozone remained relatively stable through
2006, varying as weather conditions changed. In 2006, the Antarctic
ozone hole was the largest on record, despite the nearly two-decade-old
ban on CFCs. A year later, the zone of ozone depletion shrank due to
milder temperatures in the stratosphere over Antarctica.
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2
Specifiic Issues in
Global Warming
Science
How might global warming issues affect our everyday lives? Will re-
cent heat waves (such as the one in Europe that killed 35,000 people
in 2003) become more common? Increasing temperatures also cause
storms to become more violent, and spells of dry weather more intense,
in drought-and-deluge cycles. In some ways, these effects on the “hydro-
logical cycle” (the way that nature handles water) have already begun,
as temperatures rise. This chapter provides a number of specific exam-
ples, such as a one-day rainfall of 37 inches in Mumbai (Bombay), India
during the 2005 monsoon. Even while some regions receive flooding
rains, deserts are spreading in many drier areas due to changes in mon-
soon and other rainfall patterns. This chapter also describes the debate
regarding global warming as one of several reasons why hurricanes may
become more intense. Coming changes in climate may affect life in ways
that few of us would recognize today. Maple syrup could become rare in
New England, and banana trees may grow in English gardens. Low-lying
cities may consider moving (the British government is already planning
for the day when it may have to leave London, for example). A white
Christmas may become just a memory for the vast majority of people
even in middle latitudes.
COULD EUROPE’S HEAT OF 2003 BECOME TYPICAL?
According to British scientists, Europe’s scorching heat wave of 2003
will be considered typical summer weather by the middle of the twenty-
first century and may be below average in 100 years. More than 35,000
people died in that heat wave, more than half of them in France. London
recorded its first 100◦ day since records have been kept there, nearly 400
years. Temperatures reached 117◦ F in parts of Spain.
British scientists made a case that the summer of 2003 was Europe’s
hottest in southern, western, and central Europe in at least five cen-
turies. From the eastern Atlantic to the Black Sea, the mercury was
2.3◦ C (4.14◦ F) above average. According to their models, by the 2040s,
at least one European summer in two will be hotter than in 2003. By the
end of this century, 2003 would be classed as a cooler-than-average sum-
mer relative to the new climate, the scientists wrote in Nature, December
2, 2004 (Phew, 2004).
According to their models, summers in 2100 will be about 6◦ C
(10.8◦ F) hotter than 2003’s averages. “We estimate it is very likely (con-
fidence level more than 90 per cent) that human influence has at least
doubled the risk of a heat wave exceeding this threshold magnitude,”
wrote Peter A. Stott and colleagues (Stott et al., 2004, 610). They contin-
ued, “It seems likely that past human influence has more than doubled
the risk of European summer temperature as hot as 2003, and with
the likelihood of such events projected to increase 100-fold over the
next four decades, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that potentially
dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system is already
underway” (Stott et al., 2004, 613). Separately, scientists at the French
meteorological agency, Meteo France, said that they expect summer
temperatures in France to rise by 4◦ C to 7◦ C (7.2◦ F to 12.6◦ F) by 2100.
“By the end of the century, a summer with temperatures as we had in
2003 will be considered. . . cool,” said researcher Michel Deque (Phew,
2004).
Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi studied heat waves in Chicago
during 1995 and Paris during 2003, forecasting, according to a global cli-
mate model, that “future heat waves in these areas will become more in-
tense, more frequent, and longer-lasting in the second half of the twenty-
first century” (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 994). They anticipate that
areas which now suffer severe heat waves will probably experience more
of the same: “The model show[s] that present-day heat waves over Eu-
rope and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation
pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases”
(Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004, 994). They concluded that “areas already
experiencing strong heat waves (e.g., Southwest, Midwest, and South-
east United State and the Mediterranean region) could experience
even more intense heat waves in the future” (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004,
997).
Heat waves are often associated with semi-stationary high pressure at
the surface and aloft which produce clear skies, light winds, warm-air
advection, and prolonged hot conditions. Meehl and Tebaldi’s model
Specific Issues in Global Warming Science 19
suggests that these conditions will occur more frequently with increas-
ing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Meehl and
Tebaldi, 2004, 996).
DROUGHT AND DELUGE

While warmer temperatures will bring an increase of rainfall on the
average, theory as well as an increasing number of daily weather reports
strongly indicate that changes in precipitation patterns may vary widely.
Such changes will be highly uneven and sometimes damaging in inten-
sity. Both droughts and deluges are likely to become more severe. They
may even alternate in some regions, with deluges followed by drought
and vice versa.
By 2000, the hydrological cycle (indicated by precipitation patterns)
seemed to be changing more rapidly than temperatures. With sustained
warming, usually wet places often seemed to be receiving more rain
than before; dry places were often experiencing less rain and subject to
more persistent droughts. Some drought-stricken regions occasionally
were doused with brief deluges that ran off earth cracked by drought.
In many places, the daily weather was increasingly becoming a question
of drought or deluge.
On July 21, 2007, for example, D’Hanis, near San Antonio in Texas,
was severely flooded after 17 inches of rain fell in 12 hours. The same
day, locations in southern and central England witnessed their worst
flooding on record after a month’s worth of rain, as much as 5 inches,
fell in one hour, following the wettest June in England’s history. One
such location was Shakespeare’s Stratford-upon-Avon, which led some
residents to remark that it had become Stratford-under-Avon. The floods
displaced thousands of people and fouled the water for half a million.
Once-in-a-century rains also flooded large parts of China, destroying 3.6
million homes and killing at least 500 people. At the same time, the
Western United States was scorched by a record number of wildfires
provoked by heat and drought.
Andrew Revkin of The New York Times summarized the situation: “A
warmer world is more likely to be a wetter one, experts warn, with more
evaporation resulting in more rain, in heavy and destructive downpours.
But in a troublesome twist, that world may also include more intense
droughts, as the increased evaporation parches soils between occasional
storms” (Revkin, 2002, A-10). “In a hotter climate, your chances of being
caught with either too much or too little are higher,” said John M. Wal-
lace, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington
(Revkin, 2002, A–10).
Even as rains inundated some places, the percentage of Earth’s land

area affected by serious drought more than doubled between the 1970s
and the early 2000s, according to an analysis by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. Increasing
drought occurred over much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and
southern Africa, and eastern Australia. Rising global temperatures ap-
pear to be a major factor, said NCAR scientist Aiguo Dai (Dai et al., 2004,
1117). By 2007, Australia was suffering its worst drought in recorded his-
tory. The conditions were so dry that irrigation to some farms was being
cut off, threatening their owners’ livelihood.
Dai and colleagues found that the proportion of land areas experi-
encing very dry conditions increased from a 10 to 15 percent range
during the early 1970s to about 30 percent by 2002. Almost half of that
change was due to rising temperatures rather than decreases in rainfall
or snowfall (Dai et al., 2004, 1117). “These results point to increased
risk of droughts as human activity contributes to global warming,” said
Dai (2004, 1117).
The same patterns also hold for snowfall. “Lake-effect” snow on the
southern and western shores of Lake Ontario in New York State can
be a dramatic example. Oswego County, New York, received almost no
lake-effect snow during December 2006 or January 2007 but was buried
under more than 110 inches in seven days during February, as a relentless
cold wind crossed an unfrozen Lake Ontario. Within eight days, some
areas near Oswego had 10 feet of snow. In nearby Redfield, the National
Weather Service reported that 141 inches had fallen in 10 days, a state
record for a single storm event—the lake-effect championship, spurred
by very cold air traversing relatively warm lake water, then colliding with
colder earth that forced it to suddenly condense. In earlier years, the
lake’s surface usually froze by January, cutting off most of the snowfall.
In Buffalo, New York, which is well known for its bursts of heavy snow,
storms have been becoming more intense in recent years for the same
reason. By the end of the century, most of Buffalo’s snow may change
to lake-effect rain. New York City’s highest recorded snowfall in Central
Park, is 26.9 inches, recorded, February 12, 2006.
P. C. D. Milly, writing in Nature about an increasing risk of floods in
a changing climate, said, “We find that the frequency of great floods
increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emer-
gence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is
consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests
that the trend will continue” (Milly et al., 2002, 514–515). The World
Water Council report compiled statistics indicating that between 1971
and 1995, floods affected more than 1.5 billion people worldwide, about
100 million people a year. An estimated 318,000 people were killed and
more than 18 million left homeless during the quarter-century. The eco-
nomic costs of these disasters rose to an estimated US$300 billion in the
1990s from about US$35 billion in the 1960s (Greenaway, 2003, A-5).
DROUGHT AND DELUGE: MANY EXAMPLES

The summer of 2002 featured a number of climatic extremes, as ex-
cessive rain deluged Europe and Asia, swamping cities and villages and
killing at least 2,000 people, while drought and heat scorched cities
in the Western and Eastern United States. Climate contrarians argued
that weather is always variable, but other observers noted that extremes
seemed to be more frequent than before (Revkin, 2002, A-10). Also dur-
ing the summer of 2002, near the Black Sea, a large tornado and heavy
rains left at least 37 people dead and hundreds of vacationers stranded.
During the same week, in China’s southern province of Hunan, 70 peo-
ple died after rains caused landslides and floods. South Korea mobilized
thousands of troops after a week that saw two-fifths of the average annual
total rainfall (Townsend, 2002, 15). During the week of May 3–10, 2003,
562 tornadoes were reported in the United States, the largest weekly
total since records began in the 1950s; this record was then surpassed in
August 2004.
After one of its driest summers on record, Seattle recorded its wettest
month on record (with 15.63 inches of rain at Seattle-Tacoma Interna-
tional Airport) in November 2006. After an El Nino set in at Christmas
of the same year, the weather in Seattle again became unusually dry.
Omaha experienced its second wettest May on record in 2007 (with 10.4
inches of rain), followed by its driest June (with a quarter of an inch
of rain). Even months not usually noted for tornado activity seemed to
be getting more of it; September 2004, for example, also set a record
for tornado sightings in the United States. During the third week of
October 2007, an F-3 tornado ripped through Michigan, near Lansing,
killing three people, a very unusual storm, for that time of year.
Examples abound of increasing extremes in precipitation. November
2002, December 2002, and January 2003 were Minneapolis-St. Paul’s
driest in recorded history. These followed the wettest June through Oc-
tober there in more than 100 years. In December 2002, Omaha recorded
its first month on record with no measurable precipitation. In March
2003, having endured its driest year in recorded history during 2002,
Denver, Colorado recorded 30 inches of snow in one storm. Snowfall on
the drought-parched Front Range totaled as much as eight feet in the
same storm. Fifteen months later, Denver’s weather let loose again; on
June 9, 2004, suburbs north and west of the city received as much as
3 feet of hail. Residents used shovels to free their cars. The summer of
2003 was unusually dry in the Pacific Northwest; during the third week
in October, however, Seattle recorded its wettest day on record, with
5.02 inches of rain. The night of July 27, 2004, Dallas, Texas, recorded
a foot of rain and widespread flooding—as the U.S. West continued to
endure its worst multiyear drought in at least 500 years.
At times, the swift passage from drought to deluge can mimic Robert
Frost’s legendary duality of fire and ice. In November 2003, for example,
the Los Angeles area was scorched by its worst wildfires on record until
that time (2007 was worse), driven by hot, desiccating Santa Ana winds
that pushed temperatures to near 100◦ F. Less than two weeks later, parts
of the Los Angeles Basin were pounded by a foot of pearl-sized hail.
By 2007, Los Angeles was beset by its worst drought on record. The
same month, drought-enhancing Santa Ana winds as strong as 100 miles
an hour drove wildfires that expelled hundreds of thousands of people
from their homes between San Diego and Malibu, California, during
one of the area’s worst droughts on record. The Southeastern United
States also was suffering its worst drought on record at the same time.
The drought in the U.S. West was occasionally punctuated by local-
ized deluges. On July 6, 2002, near Ogallala, Nebraska, as much as 10
inches of rain cascaded onto an area that was being plagued by extreme
drought, running off the hardened soil, washing out sections of Inter-
state 80, killing a truck driver, and provoking evacuation of residents.
Both approaches of a bridge over the South Platte River were washed
out. “People I’ve talked to have never seen anything like this,” said
Leonard Johnson, Mayor of Ogalalla (Olson, 2002, A-1). The rainfall in
that one storm was two to three times the amount that had previously
fallen in the area during the entire year of 2002. Nearly a year later, on
the night of June 22, 2003, a stagnant supercell dumped 12 to 15 inches
of rain (half the area’s annual average) south and east of Grand Island,
Nebraska, an area that was also suffering intense drought at the time.
The same storm spawned several tornadoes, killing one person and in-
juring several others. This storm, which destroyed large parts of Aurora,
Nebraska, produced hail that was among the largest ever reported in
the United States, as well as a tornado that stood virtually in one place
for half an hour, devastating the town of Deshler.
The island of Hispaniola (the Dominican Republic and Haiti) was
seared by drought in 2003 and then drowned in floods that killed at
least 2,000 people in May 2004. By the summer and early fall of 2004,
the U.S. East Coast, which had experienced intense drought three years
earlier, was drowning in record rainfall, part of which arrived courtesy
the remains of four hurricanes that had devastated Florida.
Similar reports of an intensifying hydrological cycle have been plenti-
ful outside the United States. India, with its annual monsoon dry season
that usually alternates with heavy rains, has adapted to a drought-deluge
cycle. About 90 per cent of India’s precipitation falls between June and
September during an average year, so heavy rain in Mumbai in late July
is hardly unusual. On July 26 and 27, 2005, however, 37.1 inches of rain
fell in Mumbai during 24 hours, the heaviest on record for an Indian
city (and probably any city in the world) during one day and night. The
deluge contributed to more than 1,000 deaths in and near Mumbai and
the rest of the state of Maharashtra. Two years later, some of the heaviest
monsoon rains in India’s history killed at least 2,800 people in India,
Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan in 2007. Several million people lost
their homes.
India’s monsoon has become more unpredictable in recent years.
Drought years have become more intense and floods more devastating.
Some years, parts of India drown in rain while others nearby are drought-
stricken. The monsoon has always been noted for extremes (the history
of India records many of them), but with warming, drought-or-deluge
has become almost an annual affair. As warming continues, some climate
models indicate that summers in India may become hotter, with rains
often more fierce but erratic.
WARMING AND SPREADING DESERTS
Since the 1970s, the number of very dry areas on Earth has more than
doubled, as defined by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, to about
30 percent of the land area. As a major study by the National Center
for Atmospheric Research has concluded, “These results provide obser-
vational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic
global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures
and increased drying” (Romm, 2007, 55). In March 2006, Phoenix, Ari-
zona, set a record with more than 140 consecutive rainless days: In June,
45 percent of the contiguous United States was in a moderate-to-extreme
state of drought. By July, the figure was 51 percent (Romm, 2007, 56).
During the first 20 years of the twenty-first century, about 60 million
people are expected to leave the Sahelian region of Africa if desertifi-
cation is not halted, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan said
on June 17, 2002, the day set aside each year by the United Nations
as the World Day to Combat Desertification and Drought. In northeast
Asia, “[D]ust and sandstorms have buried human settlements and forced
schools and airports to shut down,” Annan said, “while in the Americas,
dry spells and sandstorms have alarmed farmers and raised the specter
of another Dust Bowl, reminiscent of the 1930s.” In southern Europe,
“lands once green and rich in vegetation are barren and brown,” he said
(Global Climate Shift, 2002).
Australian government researcher Dr. Leon Rotstayn has compiled
evidence indicating that air pollution is a likely contributor to the catas-
trophic drought in the Sahel, a region of northern Africa that borders
the fringe of the Sahara Desert. Sulfate aerosols, tiny atmospheric par-
ticles, have contributed to a global climate shift, he said. “The Sahelian
drought may be due to a combination of natural variability and atmo-
spheric aerosol,” said Rotstayn. “Cleaner air in future will mean greater
rainfall in this region,” he continued (Global Climate Shift, 2002).
“Global climate change is not solely being caused by rising levels of
greenhouse gases. Atmospheric pollution is also having an effect,” said
Rotstayn, who is affiliated with C.S.I.R.O., the Australian government’s
climate change research agency. Using global climate simulations, Rot-
stayn found that sulfate aerosols, which are concentrated mainly in the
northern hemisphere, make cloud droplets smaller. This makes clouds
brighter and longer lasting, so they reflect more sunlight into space,
cooling the Earth’s surface below (Global Climate Shift, 2002). As a re-
sult, the tropical rain belt, which migrates northward and southward with
the seasonal movement of the sun, is weakened in the northern hemi-
sphere and does not move as far north (Global Climate Shift, 2002). This
change has had a major impact on the Sahel, which has experienced
devastating drought since the 1960s. Rainfall was 20 to 49 percent lower
than in the first half of the 20th century, causing widespread famine and
death (Global Climate Shift, 2002).
GLOBAL WARMING AND HURRICANES
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes (as well as the number
hitting U.S. coastlines and inflicting major damage) have been rising
during recent years, in an uneven trend. Any study that takes the record
back to the 1970s indicates a very tight relationship between ocean
warming, hurricane intensity, and air temperatures. However, during
the 1950s and 1960s, air temperatures were generally cooler than during
the 1980s, but water temperatures and hurricane intensity were higher—
again, on an average.
By 2005, the complexity of this issue had provoked a vibrant
(some might even say, “testy”) debate between some hurricane experts
regarding whether and to what degree, hurricane intensity and fre-

quency was related to the overall warming trend. This debate often
spilled over into the public realm as Florida and surrounding areas were
smacked by four major hurricanes in 2004 and the 2005 hurricane sea-
son set records for the number of severe hurricanes. The same year also
included some of the severest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Basin,
including Katrina, which killed more than 1,000 people in and near New
Orleans. The city also lost more than half of its population (falling from
about 470,000 to about 220,000 according to the U.S. Census) between
2005 and 2006.
The relationship between hurricane intensity and increasing tem-
peratures is complicated by the fact that other factors have an impor-
tant role in hurricane formation and strength. For example, El Nino
(warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator) has a strong influ-
ence on hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean because it intensifies wind
shear in the atmosphere which tears the storms apart as they form.
While the summers of 2004 and 2005 were notable for several devas-
tating hurricanes, the 2006 hurricane season was relatively quiet, with
very little loss of life or property to tropical storms. Water temperatures
were similar during all of these summers. The major difference was El
Nino conditions during the 2006 hurricane season. The strength of the
West African monsoon, which spins off low-pressure systems that may
become hurricanes, also plays a role (Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007,
465–468).
All other things being equal, however, warmth does intensify hurri-
canes. They thrive on heat and fall apart if water temperatures fall below
80◦ F. Water temperatures (like air temperatures) sometimes vary, over
periods of several decades, as the long-term trend “signal” provoked by
warming raises them on average. For example, water temperatures in
the Atlantic Ocean, which produces nearly all the hurricanes that have
an impact on the United States of America, have been rising steadily,
but gradually, since the 1970s, along with a general global rise in air
temperatures.
A study published in Nature on August 4, 2005 (Emanuel, 2005, 686–
688) indicated that the “dissipation of power” of Atlantic hurricanes
had more than doubled in the previous 30 years, with a dramatic spike
since 1995, due to global warming and other variations in ocean tem-
peratures working together. The study, by Massachusetts Institute of
Technology climate scientist Kerry Emanuel, was the first to indicate a
statistical relationship between warming and storm intensity (Merzer,
2005).
Hurricane Frances nears Florida, 2004 (NASA image courtesy Jacques Descloitres,
MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at Goddard Space Flight Center)
This trend reflects longer storm lifetimes and greater intensities, both
of which Emanuel associates with increasing sea-surface temperatures.
The large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented and probably
reflects the effect of global warming. “My results suggest that future
warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive

potential and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—
a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the 21st century,”
Emanuel wrote (2005, 686).
Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya’s models indicate that given
sea-surface temperature increases of 0.8◦ C to 2.4◦ C, hurricanes would
become 14 percent more intense (based on central pressure), with a
6 percent increase in maximum wind speeds and an 18 percent rise
in average precipitation rates within 100 kilometers of storm centers.
Tuleya is a hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion University in
Norfolk, Virginia; Knutson is at Princeton University. “One implication
of the results,” they wrote, “is that if the frequency of tropical cyclones
remains the same over the coming century, a greenhouse –gas-induced
warming may lead to a gradually increasing risk in the occurrence of
highly destructive category-5 storms” (Knutson and Tukeya, 2004, 3477).
As an indication of how complex the origin of hurricanes can be,
Johan Nyberg and colleagues reconstructed hurricane activity in the
North Atlantic Ocean for 270 years into the past, using proxy records
for vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperature from corals and a
marine sediment core. In an exercise of what scientists call “paleotem-
pestology,” samples are taken from lagoons into which storm tides wash,
an event associated with strong winds and storm surges that occur only
during very strong tropical storms. Like all proxies, these are far from
perfect. They do not, for example, account for changes in severe hurri-
canes’ paths, since they sample only a very small fraction of the area over
which the storms move (Elsner, 2007, 648). Records would be required
over a much larger area to give them value.
Nyberg and colleagues found that the average frequency of major
hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s,
reaching a long-term low cycle during the 1970s and 1980s. After 1995,
frequency increased to levels similar to other periods of high intensity in
their record, “and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hur-
ricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea-surface
temperatures” (Nyberg et al., 2007, 698). The upshot of this and other
research is that while hurricanes are sustained by warm water, vertical
wind shear (winds blowing from different directions at various heights
that disturb hurricanes’ circulation) can tear them apart, dispersing
storm-sustaining heat. This research raises other questions: El Nino con-
ditions may be fostered by warming oceans, but El Nino conditions in
the Pacific tend to cause above average wind shear in the Atlantic, which
seems to tear up hurricanes’ circulation. The picture is not as simple,
therefore, as equating warmer water with more frequent and intense
hurricanes.
William M. Gray, professor emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences at Col-
orado State University, is a long-standing opponent of the idea that
warming temperatures have anything to do with hurricanes. Accord-
ing to his tally, between 1957 and 2006, 83 hurricanes hit the United
States, 34 of them major. Between 1900 and 1949, 101 hurricanes hit the
same area, 39 of which were major, with wind speeds above 110 miles
an hour. From 1966 to 2006, says Gray, only 22 major hurricanes hit
the United States, whereas between 1925 and 1965, 39 such storms hit
the same area. “Even though global mean temperatures have risen by
an estimated 0.4◦ C and CO2 by 20 percent, the number of major hurri-
canes hitting the United States declined,” Gray (2007, A-12) wrote. Since
1995, however, the number of major storms hitting the U.S. Atlantic and
Gulf of Mexico coasts has risen sharply. Gray associates the increase with
strengthening circulation in the Atlantic Ocean.
Tropical cyclones have also been forming during recent years in places
where they occur very rarely, if at all. During June 2007, for example,
Tropical Cyclone Gonu, with sustained winds of more than 120 miles per
hour, churned 35-foot-high waves and then struck Oman, on the Ara-
bian peninsula, causing at least 13 deaths. The storm was the strongest
on record in the northwestern Arabian Sea. The cyclone hit the Omani
coastal towns of Sur and Ras al Hadd with sustained winds over 100
miles an hour. Judith Curry, a hurricane expert at Georgia Tech, said
the cyclone’s strength was “really rather amazing” for the region, and ap-
peared to be amplified by sea temperatures hovering around 87◦ F. Even
when weakened, she said, the storm could prove disastrous in Oman or
Iran. “Cyclones are very rare in this region and hence governments and
people are unprepared,” she said (Revkin, 2007).
Ss
Climate Change in New England; Goodbye,
Maple Syrup
New England’s maple trees require cold weather to yield the sap that be-
comes syrup; they yield less sap in warmer winters. An analysis of syrup
production between 1920 and 2000 indicated a decline in every New Eng-
land state except Maine. At the same time, titmice, red-bellied woodpeckers,
northern cardinals, and mockingbirds are being observed more often at bird
feeders in Vermont. All of these birds have migrated from more southerly
latitudes as temperatures have increased.
University of New Hampshire forester Rock Barrett, who supervised the
survey, said that pervasive warming already might have doomed New Eng-
land’s maple syrup industry. “I think the sugar maple industry is on its way
out, and there isn’t much you can do about that,” he said. Even in 2002,
however, roughly one in four Vermont trees still was a sugar maple. Vermon-
ters made almost 60 percent of New England’s 850,000 gallons of syrup that
year, according to federal farm data (Donn, 2002).
Much of New England could lose its maple forests during the twenty-first
century in favor of the oak and hickory that are dominant further south.
Already, during recent decades, the greatest expansion of syrup production
has occurred to the north, in colder Quebec. During a decade ending in
2002, yearly production there has doubled to satisfy a booming market,
which by the year 2000 surpassed the United States fivefold, according to
the North American Maple Syrup Council (Donn, 2002). Over the last 80
years, New England’s typical syrup output has dropped by more than half,
from more than 1.6 million gallons a year to less than 800,000 gallons.
Ss
WARMING AND NORTH AMERICA’S WATER SUPPLIES
A temperature rise of 2◦ F could have dramatic impacts on water re-
sources across western North America, according to scientific teams
that have warned of reduced snow packs and more intense flooding as
temperatures rise. This research was the first time that global climate
modelers have worked with teams running detailed regional models of
snowfall, rain, and stream flows to predict what warming will do to the
area. The researchers were surprised by the size of the effects generated
by a small rise in temperature (Warmer Climate, 2001). In a warmer
world, warmer winters would raise the average snow level, reducing
mountain snow packs, the researchers told the American Geophysical
Union in San Francisco during 2001 (Warmer Climate, 2001).
The impact of warming on mountains of California reflects similar
changes in other areas of North America that rely on snow pack for
water and power. According to the scientists’ models, “Huge areas of
the snow pack in the Sierra [Nevada] went down to 15 per cent of
today’s values,” said Michael Dettinger, a research hydrologist at the
Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, “That caught
everyone’s attention” (Warmer Climate, 2001). The researchers also
anticipated that by the middle of the twenty-first century melting snow
may cause streams to reach their annual peak flow up as much as a month
earlier than at present. With rains melting snow or drenching already-

saturated ground, the risk of extreme late-winter and early-spring floods
will rise, even as the diminishing snow pack’s ability to provide water
later in the summer declines. Thus, water consumers may face a frequent
paradox: spring floods followed by summer droughts (Warmer Climate,
2001).
Because reservoirs cannot be filled until the risk of flooding is past,
the models anticipate that within a half-century they will trap only 70
to 85 percent as much runoff as today. This is a particular problem for
California, where agriculture, industry, growing population, and envi-
ronmental needs already compete for limited water supplies (Warmer
Climate, 2001). Observations support the models. Iris Stewart, a climate
researcher at the University of California, San Diego, has found that
during the last 50 years runoff in the western United States and Canada
have been peaking progressively earlier because of a region-wide trend
towards warmer winters and springs (Warmer Climate, 2001).
Water supplies in the U.S. West could decline by as much as 30 percent
by 2050, by one estimate. “This is just one study where we didn’t find
anything good: It’s a train wreck,” said marine physicist Tim Barnett of
the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego (Vergano, 2002,
9-D). The Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) pilot study
late in 2002 released snow and rain forecasts for specific regions during
the next five decades. Funded largely by the energy department, the
projections said the following:
r Reduced rainfall and mountain snow runoff may reduce water released
by the Colorado River to cities such as Phoenix and Los Angeles by 17
percent and cut hydroelectric power from dams along the river by 40
percent.
r Along the Columbia River system in the Pacific Northwest, water levels
may drop so low that simultaneous use for irrigation and power generation
will not permit any salmon spawning. Snow packs that supply the river may
drop 30 percent, moving the peak runoff time forward one month.
r In California’s Central Valley, “It will be impossible to meet current wa-
ter system performance levels,” which could hurt water supplies, reduce
hydropower generation, and cause dramatic increases in saltiness in the
Sacramento Delta and San Francisco Bay (Vergano, 2002, 9-D).
“The physics is very simple: Higher temperatures mean there is more

rain than snow, and the spring melt comes earlier,” said Barnett, who
headed the two-year project (Vergano, 2002, 9-D).
Ss
White Christmases Soon to be a Memory?
Statistics provided by researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory
that examined weather records of 16 cities, mainly in the northern United
States after 1960, indicated that the number of white Christmases declined
between the 1960s and the 1990s. In Chicago, for example, the number
of white Christmases (defined as at least one inch of snow on the ground)
dropped from seven in the 1960s to two during the 1990s. In New York,
the number declined from five during the 1960s to one during the 1990s,
Detroit had just three white Christmases during the 1990s compared to nine
in the 1960s (Are White, 2001). The snowfall analysis was performed by
Dale Kaiser, a meteorologist with the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and
Kevin Birdwell, a meteorologist in the lab’s Computational Science and
Engineering Division.
Ss
WARMING AND WILD WEATHER IN GREAT BRITAIN
In central England, the growing season has lengthened by one month
since 1900, with an annual temperature increase of 1◦ C. Even before
Europe’s searing summer of 2003, climate change had become an im-
portant factor in English political discussions. Climate change joined
the political agenda under Margaret Thatcher, who taught chemistry
before becoming prime minister. A staunch conservative on most sub-
jects, Thatcher understood the science of climate change to a degree
shared by few other political figures.
The British government is among the world’s most acutely aware of
global warming’s potential consequences. In stark contrast to the United
States, where the George W. Bush administration long ignored the prob-
lem, British officials sounded sharp and frequent warnings. “In recent
years more and more people have accepted that climate change is hap-
pening and will affect the lives of our children and grandchildren. I fear
we need to start worrying about ourselves as well,” said Margaret Beck-
ett, secretary of the British government’s Department of Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs. (Clover, 2002, 1).
The worst storm experienced by England in a decade caused road
and rail chaos across the country, killed six people, and left hundreds
of millions of pounds worth of damage in its wake on October 30, 2000.
Torrential rain and winds as strong as 90 miles per hour uprooted trees,
blocked roads, and cut electricity supplies across southern England and
Wales. According to newspaper reports, a tornado ripped through a
trailer park in Selsey in West Sussex less than 48 hours after a similar
twister had devastated parts of Bognor Regis. In Yorkshire, the first bliz-
zards of the winter coincided with flash floods. English weather record
keepers said that October’s rainfall in East Sussex, one of the driest
parts of the country, had been nearly three times its average, at 226
millimeters (9 inches). September had also been exceptionally wet.
Marilyn McKenzie Hedger, head of the United Kingdom Climate Im-
pacts Program based at Oxford University, said, “These events should
be a wake-up call to everyone to discover how we are going to cope with
climate change.” (Brown, 2000, 1) Michael Meacher, U.K. environment
minister, said that while it would be foolish to blame global warming ev-
ery time extreme weather conditions occur, “[t]he increasing frequency
and intensity of extreme climate phenomena” suggested “that although
global warming” was “certainly not the sole cause,” it was “very likely to
be a major contributory factor” (Brown, 2000, 1).
AN “ORDERLY RETREAT” OF GOVERNMENT FROM LONDON?
During 2004, a panel of 60 British climate change experts released a
government-sponsored report, “Future Flooding,” which asserted that
the homes of as many as 4 million Britons might be at risk by 2050. The
report said that the national cost of flooding might rise from $2.6 billion
a year about 2000 to $52 billion annually by 2080. Some government
officials warned that the government might be forced to consider an
“orderly retreat” from London because parts of the 2,000-year-old city
are below sea level. Professor Paul Samuels, who is leading a Europe-
wide study of flooding, said London could be “mostly gone in the next
few centuries” (Melvin, 2004, 3-A).
The flooding report said that Britain must create “green corridors”
in cities to act as safety valves into which floodwaters can be channeled.
It said parts of some urban areas might have to be abandoned and
oil refineries moved inland. Many homes, it warned, might become
uninsurable. Samuels, who suggested that the government retreat from
London, was working on the premise that the tidal section of the Thames
River would rise as much as to 3 feet in a century, a situation made worse
by the subsidence of the land on which some of London is built (Melvin,
2004, 3-A).
PALM TREES AND BANANA PLANTS IN ENGLISH GARDENS?
Traditional English gardens have been changing as the climate warms,
as described in an Associated Press dispatch carried in Canada’s Financial
Post:
The fabled English garden with its velvety green lawn and vivid daffodils,
delphiniums and bluebells is under threat from global warming, leading
conservation groups said late in 2002. Within the next 50 to 80 years,
palm trees, figs and oranges may find themselves more at home in Britain’s
hotter, drier summers, the National Trust and the Royal Horticultural So-
ciety said, releasing a new report on the impact of climate change. Gar-
dening in the Global Greenhouse: The Impacts of Climate Change on Gardens
in the U.K. was commissioned by the two organizations and the govern-
ment, as well as water, forestry and botanical organizations. (Woods, 2002,
S-10)
Reading University scientists Richard Bisgrove and Paul Hadley fore-

cast “fewer frosts, earlier springs, higher year-round temperatures, in-
creased winter rainfall (increasing risk of flooding), and hotter, drier
summers (increasing the risk of drought)” (Woods, 2002, S-10). “While
there will be greater opportunities to grow exotic fruits and subtropi-
cal plants, increased winter rainfall will present difficulties for Mediter-
ranean species which dislike waterlogging,” said Andrew Colquhoun,
director general of the Royal Horticultural Society (Woods, 2002,
S-10).
A large number of cool weather plants are likely to suffer, according to
this report, including “snowdrops, crocuses, rhododendrons, ferns and
mosses, along with bluebells and daffodils. It wouldn’t be impossible to
grow delphiniums, the Royal Horticultural Society said, but they would
be more difficult to grow. The Society said gardeners could expect to
see more palms, grapes, citrus fruit, figs and apricots, as well as color-
ful climbers like plumbago and bougainvillea. New pests from south-
ern climates—such as the rosemary beetle, berberis sawfly, and the lily
beetle—were now established in Britain, the society said (Woods, 2002,
S-10).
The Chelsea Flower Show in May 2002 “strongly reflected the trend
for Mediterranean-style plants suitable for dry conditions” (Johnson,
2002, 5). Climate models for England projected warmer, drier summers
and wetter winters. Landscape architects are faced with a paradox of
finding plants that can survive hotter, drier summers while building
landscapes that can carry off a larger volume of winter floodwaters.
Guy Barter, head of the Royal Horticultural Society’s advisory service,
said, “Olive trees, grapes, avocados and even banana plants could all
become common garden features. The air could be full of the scent
of acacia.. . .We will also see more gardens with heat-resistant trees, and
cacti and yucca. But the problem will be flooding in winter” (Johnson,
2002, 5).
A dead kangaroo on drought-affected plain in Australia ( Jeff Dixon)
WILDFIRES, DROUGHT, AND FLOODS INCREASE IN AUSTRALIA

During the 1950s and 1960s, Australia built reservoirs that were sup-
posed to protect against droughts lasting several years. These gave the
country the highest storage capacity per person in the world. Together
with hundreds of miles of irrigation conduits, Australia was said, at the
time, to be “drought-proof.” Searing heat and pervasive drought after
the year 2000 changed that. Melbourne’s water storage was 28 percent
of its capacity by mid-2007; Sydney’s was 37 percent, and Perth’s was 15
percent. In May, brief, heavy rains hit the Hunter Valley north of Syd-
ney but did little to help. The land was so dry that the torrential rains
vanished (Nowak, 2007, 10).
Human-induced global warming was a key factor in the severity of the
drought in Australia, the worst in the country’s history, according to a re-
port by World Wildlife Fund Australia (WWFA). The report, titled Global
Warming Contributes to Australia’s Worst Drought, by David Karoly, James
Risbey, and Anna Reynolds associated the drought’s intensity of the
present drought with increasing temperatures. By early 2003, 71 percent
Australia was in serious or severe drought. In some areas, the drought

was pervasive—97 percent of New South Wales was drought-stricken,
according to the report (Macken, 2003, 61). The drought continued
until at least 2007 (as this book was being written). The city of Brisbane
was even considering recycling its sewage water, and the possibility that
irrigation might be sharply cut in some of the country’s most fertile
farming areas was increasing, as city residents in Sydney rationed water.
As southeast Australia experienced its worst drought in a century, hun-
dreds of kangaroos headed towards the capital city, Canberra, appearing
on golf courses and sports fields in search of grass to eat. Hundreds of
them were shot to death “by professional gunmen as growing num-
bers [of people] perceived [the kangaroos as] a threat to the capital’s
320,000-strong population” (Why We’re All, 2004).
During the summers of 2002 and 2003, wildfires pushed by raging hot,
dry winds from Australia’s interior seared parts of Canberra, destroying
hundreds of homes, killing four people, and forcing thousands to flee
the area. “I have seen a lot of bush fire scenes in Australia. . .but this is by
far the worst,” Australia’s prime minister, John Howard, said (Australia
Assesses, 2003, A-4). Flames spread through undergrowth and exploded
as they hit oil-filled eucalyptus trees. During 2002 and 2003, drought
knocked 1 percent off Australia’s gross domestic product and cost $6.8
billion in exports. It reduced the size of Australia’s cattle herds by 5
percent and its sheep flocks by 10 percent (Macken, 2004, 61). Economic
damage continued in the following years.
Perth’s first desalination plant was completed in 2006, with a wind
farm meant to provide the 24 megawatts required to operate it. Perth
now draws 17 percent of its water from that plant. Sydney and Melbourne
are now building desalination plants. Some industries, such as BHP
Billiton’s copper and uranium mines in the South, may also build their
own plants. The plants use a great deal of energy and leave behind a
salty mush that will harm whatever land or water is used for disposal.
Brisbane’s government is talking of recycling sewage after its main water
supply runs dry, probably in 2009 (Nowak, 2007, 11).
JAPAN: HEAT ISLAND TOKYO
According to The Daily Yomiuri of Tokyo, temperatures in several
Japanese cities averaged between 3.2◦ C and 3.9◦ C above long-term av-
erages during the winter of 2001–2002. The increase in temperatures
was most notable in and around Tokyo. During the early-morning hours
(midnight to 5 a.m.), average temperatures in Tokyo have risen by 7.2◦ F
in a century. In 1900, the number of “tropical nights” with minimum

temperatures above 77◦ F was zero to five in an average summer. By the
early twenty-first century, the number of such nights reached 30 to 40
during most summers (Brooke, 2002, A-3). On July 20, 2004, the tem-
perature in Tokyo hit a record-breaking 39.5◦ C (103.1◦ F), the hottest
temperature recorded there since records began in 1923.
Tokyo winters also have become milder, with nighttime temperatures
rarely dropping below freezing even in winter. Snow in Tokyo is increas-
ingly rare. None at all fell there during the winter of 2001–2002. Leaves
used to start turning color around the end of November, said Shinsuke
Hagiwara, chief researcher of The Institute for Nature Study. “Now they
only start in mid-December,” he added (Brooke, 2002, A-3). During the
spring of 2002, cherry blossoms in Tokyo opened so early that when
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi held the government’s annual cherry
blossom viewing party in April, the blossoms had fallen from the trees. A
type of mosquito carrying dengue fever, usually found in warmer places,
by 2002 had expanded its range to 60 miles north of Tokyo, according
to Mutsuo Kobayashi, a medical entomologist (Brooke, 2002, A-3).
People in rural Japan also tell stories of unusual warming. In rural
areas as well as Tokyo, cherry blossoms have been blooming earlier than
in the past, leaving people to “hold their blossom-viewing parties under
leaves instead of flowers” (Hatsuhisa, 2002). The Prefecture of Niigata
on the Sea of Japan, 2 hours north of Tokyo by bullet train, which
once was known for heavy “ocean effect” snows carried by cold air from
Siberia, reported a scarcity of snow during the winter of 2001–2002.
During March 2002, no snow fell there for the first time since weather
records had been kept (Hatsuhisa, 2002). (Snows returned during some
of the following winters, however.) Many resorts that depend on snowfall
(mostly for skiing) were forced to close. During the same month, two-
thirds of Japan’s weather observation stations reported their highest
temperatures in a statistical record that, in most cases, reaches to 1886.
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3
Melting Ice
The most obvious indication that the Earth is steadily warming has been
the steady erosion of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic and on mountain
glaciers. Although a few exceptions do exist, the worldwide erosion of
ice leaves little doubt that the Earth has experienced steady warming for
at least a century. The melting of ice is important not only for Arctic,
Antarctic, and mountain ecosystems, but also for hundreds of millions
of people living at lower elevations who depend upon glacier melt for
water and electricity generation. Many millions more people around the
Earth who live on or near coasts and islands have felt (and will feel) the
effects of global ice melt through gradually rising sea levels.
According to NASA satellite surveys, perennial (year-round) sea ice in
the Arctic has been declining at a rate of 9 percent per decade (Stroeve
et al., 2005). During 2002, summer sea ice was at record low levels, a
trend that persisted in 2003 through 2006. During the summer of 2004,
enough Arctic ice to blanket Texas twice over disappeared. In 2005, the
Arctic ice cap shrunk to a record low size. In 2006 it was only slightly
larger than that; a year later another record low ice cap was detected
by satellites. During September 2007, the Arctic ice cap shrunk to its
smallest extent since records have been kept, 1.59 million square miles,
versus the previous record low of 2.04 square miles in 2005, more than
a 23 percent loss of ice cover, an area the size of Texas and California
combined.
During the past 40 years, Arctic sea ice also has thinned by more than
60 percent—from an average thickness of 9 feet to about 3 feet. Ac-
cording to research by scientists at the University College London and
British Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
Arctic ice thinned from 3.5 meters (11.5 feet) 30 years ago to less than
2 meters (6 to 7 feet) in 2003. By 2007 large areas of Arctic sea ice were
only about one meter thick, half what they were in 2001, according to
measurements taken by an international team of scientists aboard the
research ship Polarstern. “The ice cover in the North Polar Sea is dwin-
dling, the ocean and the atmosphere are becoming steadily warmer, the
ocean currents are changing,” said chief scientist Ursula Schauer, from
the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, aboard the
Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean (Arctic Ocean Ice, 2007).
By the middle of the twenty-first century, according to NASA pro-
jections, the Arctic could be ice-free during the summer months. By
September 2007, several studies indicated that Arctic ice was melting
even faster than that. The studies also forecast that “future loss of Arc-
tic sea ice may be more rapid and extensive than predicted” (Melting
Faster, 2007). An ice-free Arctic in late summer could now occur by
2020, or even earlier, by many projections. In the meantime, new data
from the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Col-
orado said that melting ice in the Arctic by 2007 had reached a “tipping
point” beyond which human control would be impossible (Arctic Sea
Ice, 2007).
Ss
A February Thunderstorm in the Arctic
Climate change in the Arctic has been occurring with a speed that is difficult
for people from lower latitudes to understand. For example, on March 1,
2006, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, chair of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference (and
later a nominee for the Nobel Peace Prize) wrote from her home in Iqaluit
on Baffin Island that temperatures there were 60◦ F above average in a
thunderstorm, with ice melting in winter, a type of weather never before
seen there.
Last night on February 26th on my daughter’s 30th birthday so much rain fell
that I woke up to several puddles and pools of water in my tundra backyard
and since it was 6 above [C] today the puddles [and] pools were not freezing.
There was even lightning last night here in the Arctic on a February night.
Much of the snow is melted on the back of my house and all the roads are
already slushy and messy. All planes coming up from the south were cancelled
because the runways were icy from the rain. I think Pangnirtung [a town north
of Iqaluit] has been hit very hard with high winds and again the forecast for
them tomorrow is 8 above [C]. One would think we were [in] April already!
High winds are still gusting up to 90 kilometers [per hour] as I write this
and rain is forecast tonight again. Unfortunately the predictions of the Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment are unfolding before my very eyes. (Watt-Cloutier,
2006)
Melting Ice 41
Watt-Cloutier continued,
One of my friends said today the first thing she thought of were the caribou
and how hard it is going to be for them to try and get to the lichen under the
ice when it gets cold again and everything freezes. She said she was going to
encourage her husband to go and get caribou soon while they are still healthy
as come spring they will surely be skinny and not as healthy as they normally
would had it not rained so much at this time of year and created that crust of
ice separating them from their food source. (Watt-Cloutier 2006)
Ss
EROSION OF ARCTIC ICE
Warming is being felt most intensely in the Arctic, where a world
based on ice and snow has been melting away. Arctic sea ice cover
shrank more dramatically between 2002 and 2006 than at any time since
detailed records have been kept. A report produced by 250 scientists
under the auspices of the Arctic Council found that Arctic sea ice was
half as thick in 2003 as it was 30 years earlier. If present rates of melting
continue, there may be no summer ice in the Arctic by 2070, according
to the study. (After record ice melt in 2007, that date was moved up
about 50 years.) Pal Prestrud, vice-chairman of the steering committee
for the report, said, “Climate change is not just about the future; it is
happening now. The Arctic is warming at twice the global rate” (Harvey,
2004, 1).
During the summer of 2004, enough Arctic ice to blanket Texas twice
over was lost. In the past, low-ice years were often followed by recovery
in years following, when cold winters allowed ice to build up or cool
summers kept ice from melting. That kind of balancing cycle stopped
after 2002. “If you look at these last few years, the loss of ice we’ve seen,
well, the decline is rather remarkable,” said Mark Serreze of the Na-
tional Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado (Human,
2004, B-2). The year 2004 was the third year in a row with extreme ice
losses, indicating acceleration of the melting trend. Arctic ice has been
declining about 8 percent per decade, and the trend is accelerating.
PERSONAL STORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The destruction of an Arctic ecosystem heretofore based on ice and
snow is now a day-to-day reality in the lives of people who live near or
above the Arctic Circle. Their personal stories indicate that the atmo-
sphere is warming more rapidly in parts of the Arctic than anywhere
else on Earth. Around the Arctic, in Inuit villages now connected by
email as well as the oral history of traveling hunters, weather watchers

are reporting striking evidence that global warming is an unmistakable
reality. Weather reports from the Arctic sometimes read like the pro-
jections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
on fast-forward. These personal stories support IPCC expectations that
climate change will be felt most dramatically in the Arctic.
Addressing a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on global warm-
ing on August 15, 2004, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, speaking as president of
the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, said, “The Earth is literally melting.
If we can reverse the emissions of greenhouse gases in time to save the
Arctic, then we can spare untold suffering.” She continued, “Protect the
Arctic and you will save the planet. Use us as your early-warning system.
Use the Inuit story as a vehicle to reconnect us all so that we can un-
derstand the people and the planet are one” (Pegg, 2004). The Inuits’
ancient connection to their hunting culture might disappear within her
grandson’s lifetime, Watt-Cloutier said. “My Arctic homeland is now the
health barometer for the planet” (Pegg, 2004). Committee chair John
McCain, an Arizona Republican, said a recent trip to the Arctic showed
him that “these impacts are real and consistent with earlier scientific
projects that the Arctic region would experience the impacts of climate
change at a faster rate than the rest of the world. We are the first gen-
eration to influence the climate and the last generation to escape the
consequences,” McCain said (Pegg, 2004).
Sachs Harbour, on Banks Island, above the Arctic Circle, is sinking into
the permafrost as its 130 residents swat mosquitoes. Summer downpours
of rain with thunder, hail, and lightning have swept over Arctic islands
for the first time in anyone’s memory. Swallows, sand flies, robins, and
pine pollen are being seen and experienced by people who have never
known them. Shishmaref, an Inuit village on the far-western lip of Alaska
60 miles north of Nome is being washed into the newly liquid (and often
stormy) Arctic Ocean as its permafrost base dissolves.
During the summer of 2004, several Vespula intermedia (yellow-jacket
wasps) were sighted in Arctic Bay, a community of 700 people on the
northern tip of Baffin Island, at more than 73◦ North latitude. Noire
Ikalukjuaq, the mayor of Arctic Bay, photographed one of the wasps at
the end of August. Ikalukjuaq, who said he knew no word in Inuktitut
(the Inuits’ language) for the insect, reported that other people in the
community also had seen wasps at about the same time (Rare Sighting,
2004).
In the Eskimo village of Kaktovik, Alaska, on the Arctic Ocean roughly
250 miles north of the Arctic Circle, a robin built a nest in town during
Melting Ice 43
2003—not an unusual event in more temperate latitudes but quite a

departure from the usual in a place where, in the Inupiat Eskimo lan-
guage, no name exists for robins. In the Okpilak River valley, which had
been too cold and dry for willows, they are sprouting profusely. Never
mind the fact that and in the Inupiat language “Okpilak” means “river
with no willows” (Kristof, 2003).
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Arctic Warming and Inuit Hunters
The Arctic’s rapid thaw has made hunting, which is never a safe nor easy way
of life, even more difficult and dangerous. Hunters in and around Iqaluit
say that the weather has been seriously out of whack since roughly the
middle 1990s. Simon Nattaq, an Inuit hunter, fell through unusually thin
ice and became trapped in icy water long enough to lose both his legs to
hypothermia, one of several injuries and deaths reported around the Arctic
recently due to thinning ice (Johansen, 2001, 19).
Pitseolak Alainga, another Iqaluit-based hunter, says that climate change
compels caution. One must never hunt alone, he says (Nattaq had been
hunting by himself). Before venturing onto ice in fall or spring hunters
should test its stability with a harpoon, he says. Alainga knows the value of
safety on the water. His father and five other men died during late October
1994, after an unexpected late-October ice storm swamped their hunting
boat. The younger Alainga and another companion barely escaped death
in the same storm. He believes that more hunters are suffering injuries not
only because of climate change but also because basic survival skills are not
being passed from generation to generation as in years past, when most
Inuits lived off the land (Johansen, 2001, 19).
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SURFACE ALBEDO (REFLECTIVITY) SPEEDS WARMING
The melting of ocean ice in polar regions can accelerate overall world-
wide warming as it changes surface albedo, or reflectivity. The darker
a surface, the more solar energy it absorbs. Seawater absorbs 90 to 95
percent of incoming solar radiation, whereas snow-free sea ice absorbs
only 60 to 70 percent of solar energy. If the sea ice is snow-covered, the
amount of absorbed solar energy decreases substantially, to only 10 to
20 percent. Therefore, as the oceans warm and snow and ice melt, more
solar energy is absorbed, leading to even more melting. “It is feeding
on itself now, and this feedback mechanism is actually accelerating the
decrease in sea ice,” said Mark Serreze of the University of Colorado
(Toner, 2003, 1-A).
Changes in albedo (Latin for “whiteness”) are among the factors

contributing to a rate of warming in the Arctic during the last 20 years
that has been eight times the rate of warming during the previous 100
years (Recent Warming, 2003). Recent increases in the number and
extent of boreal forest fires have also been increasing the amount of
soot in the atmosphere, which also changes albedo.
As high latitudes warm and the coverage of sea ice declines, thawing
Arctic soils also may release significant amounts of carbon dioxide and
methane now trapped in permafrost. Warmer ocean waters could also
release formerly solid methane and carbon dioxide from the sea floor.
According to David Rind, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
in New York, “These feedbacks are complex and we are working to
understand them. Global warming is usually viewed as something that’s
50 or 100 years in the future, but we have evidence that the climate of the
Arctic is changing right now, and changing rapidly. Whatever is causing
it, we are going to have to start adapting to it” (Toner, 2003, 1-A).
Study of past climates show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably
sensitive to relatively small changes in the atmosphere. This sensitivity
allows the entire planet to change climate very quickly. One feedback,
the “albedo flip,” provides a powerful trigger mechanism. James Hansen
and other researchers write, “Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could
run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other crea-
tures” (Hansen et al., 2007).
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Glacier Tourists
Glaciers were melting so quickly in Alaska by mid-2005 that their anticipated
demise was causing some tourists to visit before they disappear. The Travel
Section of The New York Times featured the so-called glacier tourists, with the
headline “The Race to Alaska Before It Melts” (Egan, 2005). Cities and towns
across the entire state (including Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, and Nome)
reported record high temperatures during the summer of 2004. At Portage
Lake, 50 miles south of Anchorage, “people came by the thousands to see
Portage Glacier, one of the most accessible of Alaska’s frozen attractions.
Except, you can no longer see Portage Glacier from the visitor center. It has
disappeared” (Egan, 2005).
Gunter Weller, director of the Center for Global Change and Arctic
System Research at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, said that average
temperatures in the state have increased by 5◦ F in the summer and 10◦ F
in the winter in 30 years. Moreover, the Arctic ice field has shrunk by 40
Melting Ice 45
percent to 50 percent over the last few decades and lost 10 percent of its
thickness, studies show. “These are pretty large signals, and they’ve had an
effect on the entire physical environment,” Weller said (Murphy, 2001, A-1).
Fewer than 20 of Alaska’s several thousand valley glaciers were advancing
after the year 2000. Glacial retreat, thinning, stagnation, or a combination
of these changes characterizes all 11 mountain ranges and three island areas
that support glaciers, according to U.S. Geological Survey scientist Bruce
Molnia (Alaskan Glaciers, 2001).
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“DRUNKEN FORESTS”
Some Alaskan forests have been drowning and turning gray as thawing
ground sinks under them. Trees and roadside utility poles, losing their
footings in the thawing earth, lean at crazy angles. The warming has
contributed a new phrase to the English language, “the drunken forest”
(Johansen, 2001, 20). In Barrow, home of Pepe’s, the world’s northern-
most Mexican restaurant, mosquitoes, another southern import, have
become a problem for the first time. Barrow has also now experienced
its first thunderstorm on record. Temperatures in Barrow began to rise
rapidly at about the same time the first snowmobile arrived, in 1971. By
the summer of 2002, bulldozers were pushing sand against the invading
sea in Barrow.
A “drunken forest,” in Alaska, where trees grow at strange angles because

of melting permafrost ( Jeff Dixon)
By 2002, the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline was being inspected for damage
due to melting permafrost. The pipeline, built during the 1970s, was
designed on assumptions that the permafrost would never melt. Mark
Lynas, extracting from his book High Tide: News from a Warming World
wrote in the London Guardian,
Roads all around Fairbanks are affected by thawing permafrost; driving over
the gentle undulations is like being at sea in a gentle swell. In some places the
damage is more dramatic—crash barriers have bent into weird contortions,
and wide cracks fracture the dark tarmac. Permafrost damage now costs a
total of $35 million every year, mostly spent on road repairs. Some areas of
once-flat land look like bombsites, pockmarked with craters where permafrost
ice underneath them has melted and drained away. These uneven landscapes
cause “drunken forests” right across Alaska. In one spot near Fairbanks, a long
gash had been torn through the tall spruce trees, leaving them toppling over
towards each other. (Lynas, 2004, 22)
SPRUCE BEETLE OUTBREAKS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA

On Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula, a forest nearly twice the size of Yel-
lowstone National Park has been dying. “Century-old spruce trees stand
silvered and cinnamon-colored as they bleed sap,” from spruce bark bee-
tle infestations spurred by rising temperatures, wrote reporter Tim Egan
of The New York Times (June 16, 2002, A-1, June 25, 2002, F-1). During
15 years (1988–2003), 40 million spruce trees on the Kenai Peninsula
have died (Whitfield, 2003, 338). The beetle infestations have reached
Anchorage, where “[v]isitors flying into the city’s airport cross islands
covered with the bristling, white skeletons of dead trees that are easily
visible through the plane windows” (Lynas, 2004, 60).
Alaskan author Charles Wohlforth described the coming of the bark
beetles:
On certain spring days in the mid-1990s, clouds of spruce bark beetles took
flight among the big spruce trees around Kachemak Bay, 120 miles south of
Anchorage. They could be seen from miles away, rolling down the Anchor
River valley. People who witnessed the arrival sometimes felt like they were in
a horror film, the air thick with beetles landing in their eyes and catching in
their hair, and knew when it happened that their trees were destined to turn
red and die. (Wohlforth, 2004, 238)
The six-legged spruce beetle, which is about a quarter-inch long, takes

to the air in the spring, looking for trees on which to feed. When beetles
find a vulnerable group of trees, they will signal to other beetles “a
chemical message,” Holsten said. They then burrow under the bark,
Melting Ice 47
A spruce bark beetle ( Jeff Dixon)
feeding on woody capillary tissue that the tree uses to transport nutrients.
Healthy spruce trees produce chemicals (terpenes) that usually repel
beetles. The chemicals cannot overwhelm a mass infestation of the type
that has been taking place, however (Egan, 2002, F-1). As a spruce dies,
green needles turn red and then silver or gray. According to Egan’s
account, “Ghostly stands of dead, silver-colored spruce—looking like
black and white photographs of a forest—can be seen throughout south-
central Alaska, particularly on the Kenai. Scientists estimate that 38
million spruce trees have died in Alaska in the current outbreak” (Egan,
2002, F-1).
More than 4 million acres of white spruce trees on the Kenai Peninsula
were dead or dying by 2004 from an infestation of beetles, the worst
devastation by insects of any forest in North America. Beetles have been
gnawing at spruce trees in Alaska for many thousands of years, but with
rapid warming since the 1980s their populations have exploded (Egan,
2002, F-1).
SHISHMAREF, ALASKA IS WASHING INTO THE SEA

Six hundred Alaskan Native people in the village of Shishmaref, on
the far western shore of Alaska about 60 miles north of Nome, have
been watching their village erode into the sea. The permafrost that
once reinforced Shishmaref’s waterfront is thawing. “We stand on the
island’s edge and see the remains of houses fallen into the sea,” wrote
Anton Antonowicz of the London Daily Mirror. “They are the homes
of poor people. Half-torn rooms with few luxuries. A few photographs,

some abandoned cooking pots. Some battered suitcases” (Johansen,
2001, 19).
Shishmaref residents voted 161 to 20 during July 2002 to move the en-
tire village inland, a project that the Army Corps of Engineers estimated
would cost more than $100 million. Shishmaref is on the Chukchi Sea,
which is encroaching steadily as permafrost melts and slumps into the
sea. By the summer of 2001, the encroaching sea was threatening rusty
fuel tank farm holding 80,000 gallons of gasoline and stove oil. “Several
years ago,” observed Kim Murphy of the Los Angeles Times, “The tanks
were more than 300 feet from the edge of a seaside bluff. But years of
retreating sea ice have sent storm waters pounding, and today just 35
feet of fine sandy bluff stands between the tanks and disaster” (Murphy,
2001, A-1). By 2001, seawater was lapping near the town’s airport run-
way, its only long-distance connection to the outside. By that time, three
houses had been washed into the sea. Several more were threatened.
The town’s drinking water supply had also been inundated by the sea.
The sea was eight feet from cutting the town’s main road and threatened
to wash the town dump out to sea.
In High Tide (2004), Mark Lynas described the crumbling of Shish-
maref:
We stood under the crumbling cliffs. Robert [Iyatunguk] scuffed the base of it
with his boot, and icy sand showered down. Up above us an abandoned house
hung precariously over the edge, at least a third of its foundation protruding
into thin air. The house next door had toppled over and been reduced to
matchwood by the waves. (Lynas, 2004, 49)
By the fall of 2004, Shismaref’s beaches retreated still further during

vicious storms which peaked from October 18 through 20. The same
storms flooded businesses along the waterfront in Nome and damaged
power lines, fuel tanks, and roads in at least a half-dozen other coastal
villages. After that, residents made plans to move inland.
ICE MELT IN GREENLAND

The largest mass of ice in the Northern Hemisphere covers Green-
land, which is about 10 percent of the world’s ice. This ice is being
measured and monitored as never before, by satellites, aircraft, and by
dozens of scientists who are enduring −30◦ F temperatures and deadly
snow-cloaked crevasses at the slumping edges of the ice cap (Revkin,
2004). Greenland’s southern tip is no further north than Juneau or
Stockholm. The persistence of the ice cap is due to its mass, the fact that
Melting Ice 49
Greenland summer ice melt in 1992 and 2005 (Courtesy Konrad Steffen, Co-
operative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of
Colorado)
ice makes its own climate. The ice reflects sunlight and heat and deflects
weather systems from the south. The elevation of the ice sheet helps to
keep it cold. As it erodes, these advantages diminish (Appenzeller, 2007,
68). Western Greenland is losing ice mass most quickly, as the east gains
some mass due to increased precipitation.
Greenland’s ice is only a fraction of Antarctica’s, but it is melting
more rapidly, in part because summers are warmer, allowing for more
rapid runoff. During the last few years, Greenland’s “melt zone,” where
summer warmth turns snow on the edge of the ice cap into slush and
ponds of water, has expanded inland, reaching elevations more than
a mile high in some places, said Konrad Steffen, a glaciologist at the
University of Colorado.
“The higher elevation appears to be stable, but in a lot of areas around
the coast the ice is thinning,” said Waleed Abdalati, a manager in the
Earth Sciences Department of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center,
“There is a net loss of ice, particularly in the south” (Brown, 2002,
A-30). While some studies suggest that Greenland’s ice is melting at
increasing rates, one study indicates that temperatures at the summit of
the ice sheet have declined at the rate of 2.2◦ C per decade since 1987
(Chylek et al., 2004, 201). In some places, however, coastal thinning of

ice increased to as much as three feet a year during the 1990s.
Modeling by Jonathan Gregory of the Centre for Global Atmospheric
Modeling in Reading, UK, “suggests that as ice is lost, portions of the sur-
face of Greenland’s interior will heat and up at lower elevations where
the air is warmer. Less snowfall and more rain would cause the ice to
disappear at a faster rate than it is being replaced, leading in turn to
further drops in elevation” (Schiermeier, 2004, 114–115). Greenland’s
largest glacier, the Jakobshavn, has doubled its speed into the ocean in
a few years, to 120 feet per day on average, delivering 11 cubic miles of
ice to the sea each year. The glacier’s ice tongue, the point at which the
glacier meets the ocean, has also retreated 4 miles since 2000 (Appen-
zeller, 2007, 61).
In Greenland (and elsewhere), summer melt collects in deep-blue
lakes sometimes several hundred yards across. The lakes then find fis-
sures in the ice (called moulins), which conduct the water to the glacier’s
base, forming a slick surface that speeds the glacier’s movement into the
sea. The more the ice melts, the faster the glacier moves. Sometimes sur-
face lakes disappear down moulins nearly instantly (Appenzeller, 2007,
68).
POLAR BEARS UNDER PRESSURE
Steady melting of Arctic ice threatens the survival of polar bears, which
hunt seals on ice floes. A few years ago, the demise of Arctic sea ice and
a majority of polar bears was projected at the end of the century, but ice
has melted so quickly that both may vanish within a few decades. The
offshore ice-based ecosystem is sustained by upwelling nutrients that
A polar bear ( Jeff Dixon)

Melting Ice 51
feed plankton, shrimp, and other small organisms, which feed the fish.
These, in turn, feed the seals, which feed the bears. The Native people
of the area also occupy a position in this cycle of life. When the ice is
not present, the entire cycle collapses.
Seymour Laxon, senior lecturer in geophysics at UCLA’s Centre for
Polar Observation and Modeling, said that serious concern exists over
the long-term survival hopes for polar bears as a species. “To put it
bluntly,” he said, “No ice means no bears” (Elliott, 2003; Laxon et al.,
2003, 947). Andrew Derocher, a professor of biology at the University of
Alberta, supported Laxon’s beliefs. “If the progress of climate change
continues without any intervention, then the prognosis for polar bears
would ultimately be extinction,” he said (Expert Fears, 2003, C-8). As
part of the U.S. federal government’s decision-making process regard-
ing whether to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the
Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Geological Survey in 2007 issued a
series of reports anticipating that their population would plunge two-
thirds by 2050 as Arctic sea ice retreats. After the Arctic ice cap shrank
by almost a quarter in a year by the end of summer such projections
were being moved forward.
During 2002, a World Wildlife Fund study, “Polar Bears at Risk,” said
that the combination of toxic chemicals and global warming could cause
extinction of roughly 22,000 surviving polar bears in the wild within 50
years. Lynn Rosentrater, coauthor of the report and a climate scientist
in the WWF’s Arctic program, said, “Since the sea ice is melting earlier
in the spring, polar bears move to land earlier without having developed
as much fat reserves to survive the ice free season. They are skinny bears
by the end of summer, which in the worst case can affect their ability to
reproduce” (Thin Polar Bears, 2002).
Without ice, polar bears can become hungry, miserable creatures,
especially in unaccustomed warmth. During the Baffin Island town of
Iqaluit’s record warm summer of July 2001, two tourists were hospitalized
after they were mauled by a polar bear in a park south of town. On July
20, a similar confrontation occurred in northern Labrador as a polar
bear tried to claw its way into a tent occupied by a group of Dutch
tourists. The tourists escaped injury but the bear was shot to death. “The
bears are looking for a cooler place,” said Ben Kovic, Nunavut’s chief
wildlife manager (Johansen, 2001, 18).
Until recently, polar bears had their own food sources and usually went
about their business without trying to steal food from humans. Beset by
late freezes and early thaws, hungry polar bears are coming into contact
with people more frequently. In Churchill, Manitoba, polar bears waking
from their winter’s slumber have found Hudson’s Bay ice melted earlier
than usual. Instead of making their way onto the ice in search of seals,
the bears walk along the coast until they get to Churchill, where they
block motor traffic and pillage the town dump for food scraps. Churchill
now has a holding tank for wayward polar bears that is larger than its jail
for people.
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Artificial Hockey Ice and Air-Conditioning
in Nunavut
By the winter of 2002–2003, a warming trend was forcing hockey players in
Canada’s far north to seek rinks with artificial ice. Canada’s Financial Post
reported that “[o]fficials in the Arctic say global warming has cut hockey
season in half in the past two decades and may hinder the future of de-
velopment of northern hockey stars such as Jordin Tootoo” (Ice is Scarce,
2003). According to the Financial Post report, hockey rinks in northern com-
munities were raising funds directed toward installation of cooling plants
to create artificial ice because of the reduced length of time during which
natural ice was available. In Rankin Inlet, on Hudson Bay in Nunavut, a
community of 2,400 residents installed artificial ice during the summer of
2003 (Ice is Scarce, 2003).
Hockey season on natural ice, which ran from September until May in the
1970s, often now begins around Christmas and ends in March, according
to Jim MacDonald, president of Rankin Inlet Minor Hockey. “It’s giving
us about three months of hockey. Once we finally get going, it’s time to
stop. At the beginning of our season, we’re playing teams that have already
been on the ice for two or three months,” MacDonald said (Ice is Scarce,
2003.) According to Tom Thompson, president of Hockey Nunavut. There
are about two-dozen natural ice rinks in tiny communities throughout the
territory but only two with artificial ice, Thompson said. Both are in the
capital, Iqaluit (Ice is Scarce, 2003).
“In my lifetime I will not be surprised if we see a year where Hud-
son Bay doesn’t freeze over completely,” said Jay Anderson of Environ-
ment Canada. It’s very dramatic. Yesterday [January 6, 2003], an alert was
broadcast over the Rankin Inlet radio station warning that ice on rivers
around the town is unsafe. The temperature hovered around minus 12
[degrees] C. It’s usually minus 37 there at this time of year” (Ice is Scarce,
2003).
Meanwhile, during 2006, officials in Nunavut authorized the installation
of air conditioners in official buildings for the first time, because summer-
time temperatures in some southern Arctic villages have climbed into the
80-degree (F.) range in recent years.
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Melting Ice 53
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Northwest Passage Nearly Open
Extent of Arctic ice cap, September 2007; the ice cap lost 24 percent of its
extent in one year, opening the Northwest Passage for the first time (NASA
Earth Observatory)
During late August 2007, for the first time, the Northwest Passage from
Baffin Bay to Northern Alaska opened during a season of record ice melt
for the Arctic ice cap. European mariners had been seeking and failing
to find such a route since 1497, when English King Henry VII sent Italian
explorer John Cabot to look for a route from Europe to the Orient that
would avoid the southern tip of Africa. Many explorers failed at the task,
including Sir Francis Drake and Captain James Cook. NASA’s Advanced
Microwave Scanning Radiometer aboard the Aqua satellite observed open
water along nearly the entire route on August 22, 2007. “Although nearly
open, the Northwest Passage was not necessarily easy to navigate in Au-
gust 2007,” NASA noted. “Located 800 kilometers (500 miles) north of the
Arctic Circle and less than 1,930 kilometers (1,200 miles) from the North
Pole, this sea route remains a significant challenge, best met with a strong
icebreaker ship backed by a good insurance policy” (Northwest Passage,
2007).
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CLIMATE CONTRADICTIONS IN ANTARCTICA

In Antarctica, ice sheets have been melting around the edges of the
continent more quickly than anticipated, as increasing temperatures
speed glaciers’ movement into the surrounding oceans. The Antarctic
Peninsula is among the most rapidly warming areas on Earth, where
large ice shelves have been crumbling into the surrounding seas for sev-
eral years. Temperatures on the West Antarctic Peninsula have risen
8.8◦ F in winter since 1950, and 4.5◦ F in summer (Glick, 2004, 33).
At the same time, sections of Antarctica’s interior have experienced
a pronounced cooling trend while most other areas of Earth have
warmed.
Are Antarctic ice sheets thickening or thinning? Is sea ice expanding
or contracting? Both questions are open to debate. These debates are
of great interest for the rest of the world because significant melting of
land-based Antarctic ice could raise sea levels and inundate coastal resi-
dences of many hundreds of millions of people. Whatever the outcome
of these debates, many observations indicate a climate change-provoked
breakdown in the Antarctic food chain, which begins with krill and ends
with penguins and whales. These problems may be intensified by human-
caused declines in stratospheric ozone levels as well.
During 2007, NASA researchers using 20 years of data from space-
based sensors, from 1987 through 2006, found that the Antarctic ice
cap, which contains 90 percent of Earth’s freshwater, has been melting
over time farther inland from the coast. Ice and snow are also melting
at higher altitudes, and melting is increasing on Antarctica’s largest
(eastern) ice shelf. Snow and ice in Antarctica has been melting as far
inland as 500 miles away from the coast and as high as 1.2 miles above sea
level in the Transantarctic Mountains. The same study also found that
melting has been increasing on the Ross Ice Shelf, both in geographic
area and duration. The study will be published on September 22, 2007,
in Geophysical Research Letters (Tedesco et al., 2007).
As in Greenland, satellite sensors found that melting snow and ice
on the surface was forming ponds, with meltwater filling small cracks,
which cause larger fractures in the ice shelf. “Persistent melting on the
Ross Ice Shelf is something we should not lose sight of because of the ice
shelf’s role as a ‘brake system’ for glaciers,” said the study’s lead author,
Marco Tedesco, a research scientist at the Joint Center for Earth Systems
Technology, which is cooperatively managed by NASA’s Goddard Space
Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and the University of Maryland.
“Ice shelves are thick ice masses covering coastal land with extended
Melting Ice 55
areas that float on the sea, keeping warmer marine air at a distance from
glaciers and preventing a greater acceleration of melting. The Ross Ice
Shelf acts like a freezer door, separating ice on the inside from warmer
air on the outside. So the smaller that door becomes, the less effective it
will be at protecting the ice inside from melting and escaping” (NASA
Researchers, 2007).
Even without human burning of fossil fuels, sea levels sometimes have
changed very rapidly during glacial cycles in the past. P. U. Clark and
colleagues investigated sea level changes of roughly 14,200 years ago
that resulted in sea level surges of about 40 millimeters a year over 500
years, much more rapid than the 1 to 2 millimeter per year sea level rise
of the twentieth century (Clark et al., 2002, 2438; Sabadini, 2002, 2376).
These “meltwater pulses” probably originated in Antarctica, mostly from
ice sheet disintegration. As this work was being prepared for the press,
several reports indicated that Antarctic glaciers were speeding their
movement toward the sea, especially around the fringes of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet.
The world may warm as a whole while some areas become colder
because of local effects. The eastern half of Antarctica, for example, has
been gaining ice mass, more than 45 billion tons a year, according to
a new scientific study. Data from satellites bouncing radar signals off
the ground show that the surface of eastern Antarctica appears to be
slowly growing higher, by about 1.8 centimeters a year, as snow and ice
pile up (Chang, 2005, A-22). As temperatures rise so does the amount
of moisture in the air, causing snowfall increases in cold areas such
as Antarctica. “It’s been long predicted by climate models,” said Curt
H. Davis, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the
University of Missouri.
ICE SHELVES COLLAPSE

Several ice shelves on or near the Antarctic Peninsula have collapsed
into the ocean in recent years, becoming spectacular poster images for
global warming. Kevin Krajick, writing in Science, remarked that glaciol-
ogists in Antarctica “are keeping an eye on an alarming trend: sudden,
explosive calving [of icebergs] in parts of Antarctica. The fear is that if
this continues, it may hasten the death of glaciers at an unanticipated
rate” (Krajick, 2001, 2245). Ted Scambos, a glacier expert at the Na-
tional Snow and Ice Data Center, a joint operation of the Commerce
Department and the University of Colorado, was quoted as saying that
the rapid fracturing was too rapid to be explained by temperature rises
alone. He surmised that “summer temperatures are now high enough
to form melt pools on the glacial surfaces, which percolate rapidly into
small weaknesses to form crevasses. Once a complex of crevasses hits sea
level, sea water rushes in, re-freezes, and the mass blows apart” (Krajick,
2001, 2245). Scambos then said that such fracturing might spread to
the Ross Ice Sheet (which is much closer to the South Pole than the
Antarctic Peninsula) within about 50 years.
The ice shelves of Antarctica lost 3,000 square miles of surface area
during 1998 alone. In March 2000, one of the largest icebergs ever
observed broke off the Ross Ice Shelf near Roosevelt Island. Designated
B-15, its initial 4,250 square mile (11,007 square kilometer) area was
almost as large as the state of Connecticut. In mid-May 2002, another
massive iceberg broke off the Ross Ice Shelf, according to the National
Ice Center in Suitland, Maryland. The new iceberg, named C-19 to
indicate its location in the Western Ross Sea, was the second to break
from the Ross Ice Shelf in two weeks. On May 5, researchers spotted a
new floating ice mass named C-18, measuring about 41 nautical miles
long and four nautical miles wide. An iceberg two hundred kilometers
(120 miles) long, 32 kilometers (20 miles) wide and about 200 meters
(660 feet) thick, calved from the Ross Ice Shelf during late October 2002.
The iceberg, called C-19, is one of the biggest observed in recent years,
said David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey (Monster Iceberg,
2002).
The Larsen ice shelves (known by scientists north–south as “A,” “B,”
and “C”) began to disintegrate in 1995, when the “A” shelf fell apart;
“B” followed in 1998, losing 1,000 square miles over four years. A 1,250-
square-mile section of the Larsen B Ice Shelf disintegrated in just 35
days, setting thousands of icebergs adrift in the Weddell Sea. “We knew
what was left of the Larsen B ice shelf would collapse eventually, but
this is staggering,” said David Vaughan, a British glaciologist. “It’s just
broken apart. It fell over like a wall and has broken as if into hundreds of
thousands of bricks” (Vidal, 2002, 3). “This is the largest single event in
a series of retreats by ice shelves in the peninsula over the last 30 years.
Satellite images indicated that during 2002 another massive iceberg,
larger in area than the state of Delaware, broke away from the Thwaites
ice tongue, a sheet of glacial ice that extends into the Amundsen Sea
nearly a thousand miles from the Larsen Ice Sheet. The collapse of
the Larsen B ice shelf “is unprecedented during the Holocene;” that is,
during the last 10,000 years, according to a scientific team that wrote in
Nature (Domack et al., 2005, 681).
Scambos said that the surprising speed of the ice sheets’ collapse,
which he blamed on “strong climate warming in the region,” will force
Melting Ice 57
scientists to reassess the stability of Antarctica’s other ice shelves (Toner,

2002, A-1). Larsen “C” then shattered and collapsed during mid-March
2002. The 640-foot-thick ice shelf had been receding for at least a decade,
but scientists said it collapsed with “staggering” speed. The “B” and “C”
shelves were believed to have been intact since the last ice age (Toner,
2002, A-1). Collapse of the Larsen ice shelves was attributed to a strong
climate warming in the region, according to the U.S. government’s Ice
Center (Vidal, 2002, 3). “This area and that of the western Arctic off
Alaska are the two most rapidly warming places on the globe. The trends
of melting ice shelves is now clear,” said Steve Sawyer, a climate change
scientist (Vidal, 2002, 3).
THE SPEED OF ICE MELT: A SLOW-MOTION DISASTER?
Scientists are coming to understand that ice can melt with incredible
rapidity. “We thought the Southern Hemisphere climate is inherently
more stable,” said Scambos, “All of the time scales seem to be shortened
now. These things can happen fairly quickly. A decade or two decades
of warming is all you need to really change the mass balance. Things are
on more of a hair trigger than we [had] thought” (Struck, 2007, A-10).
Evidence from Antarctica suggests that melting ice may flow into the
sea much more easily than earlier believed, perhaps leading to a more
rapid rise in worldwide sea levels than many scientists had anticipated.
A study published on March 7, 2003, in the journal Science called the
prospect “a slow-motion disaster,” the cost of which—in lost shorelines,
salt inundation of water supplies, and damaged ecosystems—“would
be borne by many future generations” (de Angelis and Skvarca, 2003,
1560; Revkin, 2003, A-8). This analysis focused on the disintegration of
ice shelves at the edges of the Antarctic Peninsula following decades of
warming temperatures. The loss of the coastal shelves caused a drastic
speedup in the seaward flow of inland glaciers. The peninsula, which
stretches north toward South America, has warmed an average of 4.5◦ F.
over the last 60 years, so much so that ponds of melted water now form
during summer months atop the flat ice shelves (Revkin, 2003, A-8).
Two Argentine researchers described aerial surveys they conducted
during 2001 and 2002 which indicated that the collapse of the Larsen A
ice shelf during 1995 led to a sudden surge in the seaward flow of five of
the six glaciers behind it on the land—as if a dam had been breached.
Geological evidence indicated no signs of similar ice breakups along
the peninsula in many thousands of years, the researchers and other
experts said. The recent disintegration of ice shelves along both coasts
of the peninsula occurred after thousands of years of relative stability,
according to Pedro Skvarca, an author of the study and the director of

glaciology at the Antarctic Institute of Argentina (Revkin, 2003, A-8).
“We are witnessing a very significant warning sign of climate warming,”
Skvarca said (Revkin, 2003, A-8). “This discovery calls for a reconsider-
ation of former hypotheses about the stabilizing role of ice shelves. . . .
It should be emphasized that the grounded ice on the northeastern
Antarctic Peninsula is rapidly retreating and therefore substantially con-
tributing to the global rise in sea level. The risk increases when the possi-
ble surging response of the Kektoria-Green-Evans and Crane glaciers is
considered; these glaciers formerly nourished the section of the Larsen
B Ice Shelf that disintegrated in early 2002” (de Angelis and Skvarca,
2003, 1560–1562).
ANTARCTIC WARMING AND THE OCEAN FOOD WEB
Numbers of krill, a small shrimplike animal at the base of the Antarctic
ocean food chain, have fallen by 80 percent since the 1970s, creating
food shortages that are endangering larger animals and birds, such as
whales, seals, penguins, and albatrosses, especially in the vicinity of the
Antarctic Peninsula. Angus Atkinson of the British Antarctic Survey, who
led the research, said, “This is the first time that we have understood the
full scale of this decline. Krill feed on the algae found under the surface
of the sea-ice, which acts as a kind of nursery” (Atkinson et al., 2004,
100–103; Henderson, 2004).
The collapse of ice shelves along some of Antarctica’s shores changes
the ecology of the nearby ocean, with important effects for wildlife.
According to a report by the Environment News Service, the new
Krill, at the base of the Antarctic food chain ( Jeff Dixon)

Melting Ice 59
Adelie Penguins at a rookery ( Jeff Dixon)
icebergs have changed the Antarctic ecosystem blocking sunlight

needed for growth of the microscopic plants called phytoplankton that
form the underpinning of the entire food web. They are a primary
food source for miniscule shrimp-like krill, which in turn are consumed
by fish, seals, whales and penguins. Ice shelf B-15 broke into smaller
pieces that prevented the usual movement of sea ice out of the region,
said Kevin Arrigo, assistant professor of geophysics at Stanford Univer-
sity. Phytoplankton requires open water and sunlight to reproduce, so
higher-than-usual amounts of pack ice cause declines in plankton pro-
ductivity (Breakaway Bergs, 2002).
Populations of Adelie penguins on the Antarctic Peninsula are falling
as their surroundings warm. About 1985, the Biscoe region of the Antarc-
tic Peninsula was home to about 2,800 breeding pairs of Adelie Penguins.
By 2000, however, the number had declined to about 1,000. On nearby
islands, the number of breeding pairs has dropped from 32,000 to 11,000
in 30 years. “The Adelies are the canaries in the coal mine of climate
change in the Antarctic,” said ecologist Bill Fraser (Montaigne, 2004,
36, 39, 47). If warming continues, penguins may abandon much of their
900-mile-long home promontory altogether. The archetypal “tuxedoed”
species prefer a cold climate even more so than other penguins (Lean,
2002, 9).
Warming has also caused problems for penguins in the Ross Sea. Large
icebergs have been blocking the way between their breeding colonies
and feeding areas. As a result, the penguins are being forced to walk
an extra 30 miles (at a one-mile-per-hour waddle) to get food. Thou-
sands of penguins have died during these treks. Thousands of emperor
penguin chicks drowned near Britain’s Halley base after ice broke up
earlier than usual, before they had learned to swim (Lean, 2002, 9).
Penguins cannot fly and so have trouble changing habitat as conditions
evolve.
Penguins and whales are only two of the several Antarctic animals that
will be threatened in coming years due to rapid habitat change caused at
least partially by warming temperatures. Global warming could wipe out
thousands of Antarctic animal species in the next 100 years, the British
Antarctic Survey said during 2002. An anticipated temperature rise of
2◦ C, a fraction of what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) forecasts by the end of the twenty-first century, would be enough
to threaten large numbers of fragile invertebrates with extinction, said
Professor Lloyd Peck from the British Antarctic Survey. These include
exotic creatures found nowhere else on Earth, “such as sea spiders the
size of dinner plates, isopods—relatives of the woodlouse, and fluores-
cent sea gooseberries as big as rugby balls” (Von Radowitz, 2002). Peck
said, “We are talking about thousands of species, not four or five. It’s
not a mite on the end of the nose of an elk somewhere” (Von Radowitz,
2002).
MOUNTAIN GLACIERS IN RETREAT

Mountain glaciers are in rapid retreat around the Earth, with very
few exceptions. Climbers have been rescued from the Matterhorn in
the Swiss Alps as thawing mountainsides crumble under them. During
the summer of 2003, Mont Blanc, Europe’s tallest, was closed to hikers
and climbers because its deteriorating snow and ice was too unstable to
allow safe passage. The mountain was crumbling as ice that once held it
together melted during a record warm summer in Europe.
In the Swiss Alps, scientists have estimated that by 2025 glaciers will
have lost 90 percent of the volume they contained a century earlier.
Roger Payne, a director of the Swiss-based International Mountaineer-
ing and Climbing Federation, said global warming was emerging as
one of the biggest threats to mountain areas. “The evidence of climate
change was all around us, from huge scars gouged in the landscapes by
sudden glacial floods to the lakes swollen by melting glaciers” (Williams,
2002, 2).
Melting Ice 61
Eighty-five percent of the glaciers in Spain’s Pyrenees melted during

the twentieth century, according to Greenpeace, which reported, “The
surface of the glaciers of the Pyrenees on the Spanish side went from
1,779 hectares (4,394 acres) in 1894 to 290 acres in 2000. . . . That infers
a loss of 85 percent of the surface of the glaciers in the last century,
with the process accelerating in the last 20 years” (More Than, 2004).
Glaciers in that area are expected to vanish by the year 2070. Melting
glaciers are revealing a large number of previously buried historical
artifacts. For example, a 450-year-old bison skull was found in a melting
snow bank in the Colorado Rockies. Human cadavers, airplanes, dead
birds, caribou carcasses, mining equipment, and prehistoric weapons
have been uncovered (Erickson, 2002, 6-A).
By the end of the twenty-first century, Glacier National Park in Mon-
tana may lose the last of its permanent glaciers; its name will be a re-
minder of what humankind has done to the Earth’s climate. The orig-
inal 150 glaciers within Glacier National Park had been reduced to 37
by 2002, and most of these were small remnants of the once-mighty ice
masses. After naturalist George Bird Grinnell campaigned for creation
of Glacier National Park more than a century ago, a 500-acre glacier
there was named for him. Today, it has lost two-thirds of its mass.
Generally, the only glaciers gaining mass are in wet areas of the world
near the oceans, such as parts of Norway and Sweden, where lowland
melting has been offset by increased snowfall at higher elevations, an-
other result of warming temperatures. Temperatures are rising on these
highland glaciers too, and warmer air holds more moisture. These areas
have not yet risen above freezing most of the year. Alaska’s Hubbard
Glacier “is advancing so swiftly that it threatens to seal off the entrance
to Russell Fiord near Yukatat and turn the fiord into an ice-locked lake.
Like a handful of other Alaska glaciers, the Hubbard is fed by a high-
altitude snowfield that has not yet been affected by warmer tempera-
tures” (Toner, 2002, 4-A). “The Hubbard is definitely an exception,”
said the Geological Survey’s Bruce Molnia, who has been tracking 1,500
Alaska glaciers. “Every mountain group and island we have investigated
is seeing significant glacier retreat, thinning or stagnation, especially at
lower elevations. Ninety-nine percent of the named glaciers in Alaska
are retreating” (Toner, 2002, 4-A).
Scientists reported during October 2003 that the Patagonian Ice
Fields of Chile and Argentina have been thinning so quickly that this
6,500-square-mile region of South America is experiencing a pace of
glacial retreat that is among the most rapid on Earth. During the pe-
riod 1995–2000, rate of volume loss for 63 glaciers in the area doubled,
compared to the 1968–2000 average (Rignot et al., 2003, 434). Early

in 2004, Greenpeace International released results of an aerial survey
confirming the rapid recession of the Patagonia glaciers, which was es-
timated at 42 cubic kilometers a year, an amount that could fill a large
sports stadium 10,000 times.
“These losses are not just regrettable but actually threaten the health
and well-being of us all. Mountains are the water towers of the world,
the sources of many rivers. We must act to conserve them for the benefit
of mountain people, for the benefit of humankind,” said Klaus Toepfer,
head of the United Nations environment program (Vidal, 2002, 7).
Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia, where major cities rely on glaciers as their
main source of water during dry seasons, would be worst affected.
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Glacial Retreat in the Himalayas
Thousands of Himalayan glaciers feed several major rivers, sustaining one-
sixth of the Earth’s population, a billion people downstream mainly in
China and India. Their retreat threatens the region’s drinking water supply
and agricultural production and increases its vulnerability to disease and
floods. The Indian Space Research Organization used satellite imaging to
measure changes in 466 glaciers, finding more than a 20 percent reduc-
tion in their size between 1962 and 2001. Another study found that the
Parbati glacier, among the largest, was retreating by 170 feet a year dur-
ing the 1990s. Another glacier, Dokriani, lost an average of 55 feet a year.
Temperatures in the northwestern Himalayas have risen by 2.2◦ C in the last
two decades (Sengupta, 2007). “In the course of the century,” warned a re-
port from the Indian Space Research Organization, “water supply stored in
glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availabil-
ity in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where
more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives” (Sengupta,
2007).
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The Ex-snows of Mount Kilimanjaro
The snow and ice crown of Mount Kilimanjaro in equatorial Africa, made
famous by Ernest Hemmingway a century ago, may vanish before the mid
twenty-first century. Kilimanjaro will no longer live up to its name, which
in Swahili means “mountain that glitters.” Mount Kenya’s ice fields have
lost three-quarters of their entire extent during the twentieth century. By
2002 Mount Kilimanjaro had lost 82 percent of its ice cap’s volume since
(a)
(b)
Aerial views of Mount Kilimanjaro ice cap: (a) 1993 and (b) 2000 (NASA
Earth Observatory)
it was first carefully measured in 1912, according to glaciologist Lonnie

Thompson, a third of it since 1990.
Kilimanjaro’s ice field shrank from 12 square kilometers in 1912 to only
2.6 square kilometers in 2000, reducing the height of the mountain by
several meters. The ice covering the 19,330-foot peak “will be gone by about
2020,” said Thompson (Arthur, 2002, 7). The reduction of glacial mass has
already cut water volume in some Tanzanian rivers that supply villages near
the mountain’s base.
Global warming may not be the only culprit in the demise of Kiliman-
jaro’s icecap; natural climate changes (including an extended drought)
also have been blamed, along with deforestation on the mountain’s slopes
that sucks moisture out of rising winds that once coated the upper el-
evations of the mountain with snow. Euan Nisbet of Zimbabwe’s Royal
Holloway College has suggested, in all seriousness, that plastic tarps be
draped across thee remaining ice fields to extend their life (Morton,
2003).
Some researchers deny that the diminishing snows of Kilimanjaro are
related to warming temperatures. Philip Mote of the University of Washing-
ton, for example, said that most of the ice loss on Kilimanjaro occurred
before the 1950s, when warming temperatures were not the dominant
factor. Reduced snowfall is an important factor, according to Mote, as
well as sublimation, which converts ice to water vapor at below-freezing
temperatures without turning it to water in between (Mote and Kaser,
2007).
The demise of Kilimanjaro’s ice cap could imperil Tanzania’s economy,
which relies on tourism driven by the attraction of the mountain. In the
Hemingway short story “The Snows of Kilimanjaro,” a disillusioned writer,
Harry Street, reflects on his life while lying injured in an African campsite.
The short story was made into a film starring Gregory Peck in 1952. “Kili-
manjaro is the number-one foreign currency earner for the government of
Tanzania,” said Thompson. “It has its own international airport and some
20,000 tourists every year” (Arthur, 2002, 7).
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DISINTEGRATION OF GLACIERS IN THE HIGH ALPS
Rising temperatures have been melting ancient glaciers on the high
Alps, causing devastating summer rockslides that have endangered the
lives of many climbers, including 70 on July 14, 2003, one of the largest
mass rescues in the area’s history. Most were plucked from the Matter-
horn, which was racked by two major landslides that day. According to
an observer, “Those climbing its slopes could have been forgiven for
thinking the crown jewel of the Alps had started falling apart under
their feet” (McKie, 2003, 18).
Melting Ice 65
According to Robin McKie, writing in London’s Observer, “The great

mountain range’s icy crust of permafrost, which holds its stone pillars
and rock faces together, and into which its cable car stations and pylons
are rooted, is disappearing” (McKie, 2003, 18). Several recent Alpine
disasters, including the avalanches that killed more than 50 people at
the Austrian resort of Galtur during 1999, have been blamed on melting
permafrost. During August 2003, the freezing line in the Alps rose to
13,860 feet (4,200 meters), almost 4,000 feet above its usual summer
maximum of 3,000 meters (9,900 feet) (Capella, 2003).
Melting of permafrost in the Alps and other European mountain
ranges does much more than spoil mountain climbers’ treks. Devastating
landslides sometimes threaten alpine villages and ski resorts. Fear has
been expressed that some villages may have to be evacuated. Rivers may
also be blocked by debris, causing flash floods when these unstable dams
subsequently collapse. According to a report in the London Guardian,
Charles Harris of the earth sciences department at Cardiff University,
who coordinates research for the European Union, said that the main
areas at risk are the Alps in Switzerland, Austria, France, Germany, and
Italy, where the mountains are densely populated and the slopes are very
steep.
The people of Macugnaga, Italy, an Alpine resort village long ago
learned to cope with the floods that sometimes accompany the melting
snow in the spring, “but nothing,” according to one account, “prepared
them for the catastrophic flood threat they now face—a glacier rapidly
melting from unusually warm temperatures” (Konviser, 2002, C-1). Res-
idents of the village fear that a large lake fed by melting glaciers could
break through an ice wall. If the wall breaks, a devastating wall of water
carrying chunks of glacier and mountain debris could surge through
a valley below. Known technically as a “glacier lake outburst flood,” or
GLOF, “it’s an event previously seen only in the Himalayas where the
slopes of the mountains are steeper. Scientists say the threat is both real,
and a warning of things to come if the global-warming trend continues”
(Konviser, 2002, C-1).
“It’s a dangerous situation because the border of the lake is ice, which
isn’t stable,” said Claudia Smiraglia, a professor of physical geography at
Milan University. “The glacier is always in motion” (Konviser, 2002, C-1).
Bruce I. Konviser, reporting for The Boston Globe, described the potential
scope of the threat:
If the water escapes, the 650 residents of Macugnaga and as many as

7,000 vacationers, depending on the time of year,would have approximately
40 minutes to gather their belongings and get to higher ground before the
wave of water and mountain wipes out much, if not all, of the manmade struc-
tures, according to Luka Spoletini, a spokesman for the Italian government’s
Department of Civil Protection” (Konviser, 2002, C-1)
ANDES GLACIERS’ RETREAT

Hundreds of Andean glaciers are retreating, and scientists say that
their erosion is a direct result of rising temperatures. During three
decades (1970–2000), Peru’s glaciers lost almost a quarter of their 1,225-
square-mile surface (Wilson, 2001, A-1). The 18,700-foot-high Quelccaya
ice cap in the Andes of southeastern Peru has been steadily shrinking
at an accelerating rate and lost 10 to 12 feet a year between 1978 and
1990, up to 90 feet a year between 1990 and 1995, and 150 feet a year
between 1995 and 1998. The glacier retreated between 100 and 500
feet, depending on location, between 1999 and 2004. The Peruvian
National Commission on Climate Change forecast in 2005 that Peru
would lose all its glaciers below 18,000 feet in ten years. Within 40 years,
the commission said that all of Peru’s glaciers would be gone (Regaldo,
2005, A-1).
The Quelccaya ice cap shrank from 22 to 17 square miles between
1974 and 1998. The Quelccaya ice cap in the Peruvian Andes is retreating
more than 500 feet a year. Water from hundreds of glaciers in a stretch
of the Andes known as the Cordillera Blanca (“White Range”) drives the
rural economy of Peru. The water runoff moistens wheat and potatoes
along the mountain slopes. It also provides the houses and huts with
electricity generated by a hydroelectric plant on the river (Wilson, 2001,
A-1).
Lima, A city of eight million people in the Atacama, one of the driest
deserts on Earth, receives nearly all of its water during a six-month dry
season from glacial ice melt. Within a few decades, at present melting
rates, Lima’s people will encounter severe water shortages. The same
water is used to generate much of Lima’s electricity. As its few wells
dry up and glaciers shrink, Lima has been adding 200,000 residents a
year. Bolivia’s capital, La Paz, and Ecuador’s capital, Quito, face similar
problems (Lynas, 2004, 236–237). Within a few years, however, the life-
giving waters may diminish to a trickle for the last time if freezing levels
continue to rise.
The melting of glacial ice in Peru may also make some areas more
vulnerable to the frequent earthquakes that afflict the area. “Glaciers
usually melt into the rock, filling in fissures with water that expands and
freezes when the temperatures drop. What scientists fear is that, with
Melting Ice 67
Jacamba Glacier, Peruvian Andes, 1980 and 2000 (Courtesy of Mark

Lynas/Photos by Tim Helwig-Larsen)
increased melting, more water and larger ice masses are pulling apart
the rock and making the ice cap above more susceptible to the frequent
seismic tremors that rock the area” (Wilson, 2001, A-1).
Many Peruvians who face drought in the long term have also been
benefiting from a sense of false plenty in the short term by increasing
glacial runoff as glaciers melt. According to Scott Wilson, writing in
The Washington Post, the short-term glacial runoff “has made possible
plans to electrify remote mountain villages, turn deserts into orchards
and deliver potable water to poor communities. In some mud-brick
villages scattered across the valley, new schools will open and factories
will crank up as the glacier-fed river increases electricity production”
(Wilson, 2001, A-1).
“In the long run . . . these long-frozen sources of water will run dry,”
said Cesar Portocarrero, a Peruvian engineer who worked for Elec-
troperu, the government-owned power company, and who has mon-
itored Peru’s water supply for 25 years (Revkin, 2002, A-10). In the
meantime, evidence of changing climate has appeared in Portocarrero’s
hometown, Huaraz, a small city at 10,000 feet in the Andes. “I was doing
work in my house the other day [in 2002] and saw mosquitoes,” Porto-
carrero said. “Mosquitoes at more than 3,000 meters. I never saw that
before. It means really we have here the evidence and consequences of
global warming” (Revkin, 2002, A-10).
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Might Human-initiated Global Warming End the
Ice Age Cycle?
Is it possible that ongoing global warming could delay the onset of the
next ice age by thousands of years? Belgian researchers raised this issue in
the August 23, 2002 issue of Science. “We’ve shown that the input of green-
house gas could have an impact on the climate 50,000 years in the future,”
said Marie-France Loutre of the Universite Catholique de Louvain in Bel-
gium, who researched the question with colleague Andre Barger (Berger
and Loutre, 2002, 1287). Princeton climatologist Jorge Sarmiento said that
his own work supports Loutre’s assertion that increasing levels of carbon
dioxide could linger for thousands of years, long enough to influence the
climate of the far future. “The warming will certainly launch us into a new
interval in terms of climate, far outside what we’ve seen before,” said Duke
University climatologist Tom Crowley. He said it was a big enough influence
to cause the cycle of ice ages to “skip a beat” (Flam, 2002).
Loutre and Berger estimated that human activity would double the con-
centration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the next century,
raising temperatures as much as 10◦ F. “It could get much worse,” said Crow-
ley. There’s a huge reservoir of coal, and if people keep burning it, they
could more than quadruple the present carbon dioxide concentrations, he
said. “I find it hard to believe we will restrain ourselves,” he said. “It’s really
rather startling the changes that people will probably see” (Flam, 2002).
“The silliest thing people could say is: We’ve got an ice age coming, so why
are we worrying about global warming?” Sarmiento said. Whether Loutre
and Berger’s theory is right or not, “[w]e’re going to get a lot of global
warming before the ice age kicks in” (Flam, 2002).
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4
Rising Seas
On a practical level, rising seas provoked by melting ice and thermal

expansion of seawater will be the most notable challenge related to
global warming (ranging from inconvenience to disaster) for many peo-
ple around the world. Human beings have an affinity for the open sea.
Thus, many major population centers have been built within a mere
meter or two of high tide. From Mumbai (Bombay) to London to New
York City, many millions of people will find warming seawater lapping
at their heels during coming decades. Sea levels have been rising slowly
for a century or more, and the pace will increase in coming years. The
New York City area, home to 20 million people, sits on numerous islands
with about 1,500 miles of coastline, and more than 2,000 bridges and
tunnels, most of them with entrances less than 3 meters above sea level
(Lynas, 2007, 157–158).
Less visible from the land, but just as profound, warming seas could
affect patterns of oceanic flow around the world. There is speculation
that warming seas could interfere with the thermohaline circulation
that replenishes the world’s oceans with oxygen, leading to possible
extinction of several sea creatures. Additionally, a large proportion of
the planet’s coral reefs are also already suffering some degree of heat
stress from warming waters. Additional warming could wipe out many
of these “rainforests of the sea.” Many fisheries will change as cold-water
fish move north or become extinct. Sea species usually identified with
the tropics are already swimming into formerly cooler waters in places
such as Britain and the U.S. Pacific Northwest. At the base of the food
chain, phytoplankton stocks also have been reduced significantly by
oceanic warming in some areas.
THE PENETRATION OF WARMING INTO THE OCEANS

A team of oceanographers using a combination of observations and
climate models had determined by 2005 that the penetration of human-
induced warming in the world’s oceans was unmistakable. Furthermore,
the same team reported that roughly 84 percent of the extra heat that the
entire Earth was absorbing had impacted the oceans during the previous
40 years (Barnett, 2005, 284). Their study concluded that “little doubt”
exists “that there is a human-induced signal in the environment.” The
record also leaves little doubt that the oceans will continue to warm.
“How to respond to the serious problems posed by these predictions is a
question that society must decide,” they wrote in Science (Barnett, 2005,
287).
Generally, according to studies conducted by Tim Barnett, a marine
physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, as
much as 90 percent of greenhouse warming ends up in the oceans.
Using the oceans’ absorption of heat, said Barnett, whose models have
estimated the amount of oceanic warming during the past 40 years,
“[t]he evidence [of greenhouse warming] really is overwhelming” (von
Radowitz, 2005).
During the spring of 2005, James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and several other scientists pub-
lished new temperature readings from the deep ocean that trace a clear
warming trend indicative of the planet’s thermal inertia and energy
imbalance—the difference between the amount of heat absorbed by
Earth and the amount radiated out into space. This thermal imbalance
(0.85 watts plus or minus 0.15 watts per square meter) is evidence of a
steadily warming world, raising the odds of a catastrophic sudden change
marked by rising seas and melting icecaps (Hansen et al., 2005, 1431).
Hansen and colleagues concluded that the unusual magnitude of the
warming trend could not be explained by natural variability but instead
fit precisely with theories suggesting that human activity is the dominant
“forcing agent.” “This energy imbalance is the ‘smoking gun’ that we
have been looking for,” Hansen said in a summary of the study, which was
published in the journal Science. “The magnitude of the imbalance agrees
with what we calculated using known climate forcing agents, which are
dominated by increasing human-made greenhouse gases. There can no
longer be substantial doubt that human-made gases are the cause of
most observed warming” (Hall, 2005, A-1).
By Hansen’s estimate, 25 to 50 years are required for Earth’s surface
temperature to reach 60 percent of its equilibrium response—a key
Rising Seas 75
concept when diplomacy and policy usually respond to experience

rather than expectations of climate change. Regarding those expec-
tations, 0.85 plus or minus 0.15 watts per square meter of excess heat
absorbed by the Earth may not seem like much, but multiplied by many
square meters over many years, it adds up.
The Earth’s planetary energy imbalance did not exceed more than
a few tenths of a watt per square meter before the 1960s, according
to Hansen and colleagues. Since then, the excess heat that is being
absorbed by the atmosphere has grown steadily, except for years after
large volcanic eruptions, to a level much above historical averages. Much
of this excess heat ends up in the oceans, where it helps to melt ice in
the Arctic and Antarctic. In the measured tones with which scientists
express themselves, accelerating ice melt could “create the possibility of
a climate system in which large sea-level change is practically impossible
to avoid” (Hansen et al., 2005, 1434). Hansen and colleagues wrote that
continuing the present energy imbalance could lead to a climate that is
“out of control” (Hansen et al., 2005, 1434).
THE STAKES OF SEA LEVEL RISE
The oceans are the final “stop” in global warming’s feedback loop and
potentially one of the most important for human beings—not because
we live in the oceans, of course, but because more than 100 million peo-
ple worldwide live within a meter of mean sea level (Meier and Dyurg-
erov, 2002, 350). The situation is particularly acute for island nations.
Consider, for example, Indonesia. Jakarta and 69 other sizable cities
along Indonesia’s coasts will probably be inundated as global warming
causes ocean levels to rise during decades to come, according to In-
donesia’s Secretary of Environment, Arief Yuwono (70 Cities, 2002). Re-
garding ocean warming, Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National
Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, commented,
“We’re heading into unknown territory, and we’re heading there faster
than we ever have before” (Revkin, 2001, A-15).
A taste of what’s to come in Greenland was provided late in 2004
through a report in Nature that described how Greenland’s Jakobshavn
glacier’s advance toward the sea has accelerated significantly since 1997.
The speed of the glacier nearly doubled between 1997 and 2004 to
almost 50 cubic kilometers a year. This single glacier was responsible for
about 4 percent of worldwide sea level rise during the twentieth century
(Joughin et al., 2004, 608).
Seas rising because of melting ice and thermal expansion were already
swamping beaches, islands, and low-lying coastlines all over the globe
in the early twenty-first century. At least 70 percent of sandy beaches

around the world are now receding; in the United States, roughly 86
percent of East Coast barrier beaches (excluding evolving spit areas)
have experienced erosion during the last century (Zhang et al., 2004,
41). In some areas, subsistence (the land level losing altitude) is com-
pounding the problem. Removal of water (and sometimes oil and other
resources) from below the ground has also complicated matters. “We’re
losing the battle,” said Stanley Riggs, a geologist at East Carolina Univer-
sity in Greenville, North Carolina (Boyd, 2001, A-3). The Outer Banks
(of North Carolina) have been eroding rapidly. “Highway 12 is falling
into the ocean. What was once the third row of houses [on the beach] is
now the first row,” Riggs told a National Academy of Sciences conference
on coastal disasters (Boyd, 2001, A-3).
SEA LEVEL RISE: LOCAL EXAMPLES

Since 1900 sea levels have risen 12.3 inches in New York City; 8.3 inches
in Baltimore; 9.9 inches in Philadelphia; 7.3 inches in Key West, Florida;
22.6 inches in Galveston, Texas; and 6 inches in San Francisco (Boyd,
2001, A-3). The rate of sea level rise has been accelerating over time.
At the port of Baltimore, at the head of Chesapeake Bay, for example,
the water level crept up at only about one-tenth of an inch per year
for much of the twentieth century. After 1989, however, the level rose
by half an inch per year, according to Court Stevenson, a researcher at
the University of Maryland’s Center for Environmental Science (Boyd,
2001, A-3).
Sea levels have risen 12 to 20 inches on the Maine coast and as much
as 2 feet along Nova Scotia’s coastline in 250 years, according to an in-
ternational team of researchers. Global warming is the main factor, said
Roland Gehrels, of the University of Plymouth in England. He said that
the rate of sea level rise accelerated during the twentieth century, “as in-
dustrialization swept the globe” (Global Warming Blamed, 2001, 20-A).
Alarm over rising sea levels and subsidence in Shanghai, China’s
largest city (population 16 million), has prompted officials to consider
building a dam across its main river, the Huangpu. “Its main function
is to prevent the downtown areas from being inundated with floods,”
Shen Guoping, an urban planning official, told the China Daily (Shang-
hai Mulls, 2004). Rising water levels of the Huangpu, provoked by rising
sea levels due to global warming as well as subsidence, has resulted
in construction of floodwalls hundreds of kilometers in length. At the
Rising Seas 77
Sea level measurements, Fort Point, San Francisco, 1900–2000 ( Jeff Dixon)
same time, subsidence caused by pumping of groundwater and rapid

construction of skyscrapers has averaged over 10 millimeters a year.
A 0.5- to 1-meter rise in sea levels could submerge three of India’s
biggest cities (Mumbai, Calcutta, and Chennai) by 2020, according to
Rajiv Nigam, a scientist with India’s Geological Oceanography Division.
Nigam said that a 1-meter rise in sea level could cause 5 trillion rupees
(roughly US$100 billion) worth of damage to property in the Indian
state of Goa alone. “If this is the quantum of damage in a small state
like Goa that has only two districts, imagine the extent of property loss
in metros like Bombay (Mumbai),” Nigam added at a workshop in the
National College in Dirudhy, Tamil Nadu (Warming Could Submerge,
2003).
By the year 2000, rising sea levels were nibbling up to 150 meters a
year from the low-lying, densely populated Nile River delta. In Rosetta,
Egypt, a seawall two stories high has slowed the march of the sea, which
is compounded by land subsidence in the delta, but “sea walls cannot
stop the rising [salinity of] the palm groves and fields adjoining the
shore” (Bunting, 2000, 1). A 1-meter rise in sea level could drown most
of the Nile Delta, 12 percent of Egypt’s arable land, home, in 2004, to
7 million people.
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The Beach Drowns at Daytona, Florida
As with many beaches on the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf of Mexico coast
of the United States, Daytona and Flagler Beaches, in northeastern Florida,
Erosion at Flagler Beach, Florida (Bruce E. Johansen)
have been eroding for decades not only because seas are rising, but also
because the natural protection of dunes has been stripped away for condo-
minium development. The land is also subsiding in many places because
underground water has been removed for human consumption.
Daytona is notable because it was on this beach that American stock car
racing was born. Less than a century ago, the broad, firm beach was wide
enough for several stock cars to race abreast. Today the beach is wide (and
very wet) only at low tide, and the “Daytona 500,” which began on the beach,
is held well inland on an asphalt track. Daytona is still the headquarters of
NASCAR, the national coordinating body of stock car racing.
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SEA LEVEL RISE MAY SPEED UP
Writing in the March 2004 edition of Scientific American, James Hansen
warned that catastrophic sea level increases could arrive much sooner
than expected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) (Holly 2004). The IPCC has estimated sea level increases of
roughly half a meter over the next century if global warming reaches
several degrees Celsius above temperatures seen in the late 1800s (Holly,
2004). Hansen warned that if recent growth rates of carbon dioxide emis-
sions and other greenhouse gases continue during the next 50 years, the
Rising Seas 79
resulting temperature increases could contribute to large increases in

sea levels with potentially catastrophic effects.
Hansen warned that because so many people live on coastlines within
a few meters of sea level, a relatively small rise could endanger trillions of
dollars worth of homes and other buildings. Additional warming already
“in the pipeline” could take us halfway to paleoclimatic levels that raised
the oceans 5 to 6 meters above present levels during the Eemian period,
about 120,000 to 130,000 years ago (Hansen, 2004, 73). Past periods
between ice ages (called interglacials) have started with enough ice melt
to raise sea levels roughly a meter every 20 years, “which was maintained
for several centuries” (Hansen, 2004, 73).
An important issue in global warming, wrote Hansen, is sea level
change, as related to “the question of how fast ice sheets can disintegrate”
(Hansen, 2004, 73). “In the real world,” wrote Hansen, “[i]ce-sheet
disintegration is driven by highly non-linear processes and feedbacks.”
In nonscientific language, he is saying that seas can rise or fall very
rapidly in a short time, without easily identifiable reasons.
Although buildup of glaciers is gradual, “once an ice sheet begins to
collapse, its demise can be spectacularly rapid” (Hansen, 2004, 74). The
darkening of ice by black carbon aerosols (soot), pollution associated
with the burning of fossil fuels, also accelerates melting. While the timing
of melting is uncertain, wrote Hansen, “global warming beyond some
limit will make a large sea-level change inevitable for future generations”
(Hansen, 2004, 75). Hansen estimated that such a limit could be crossed
with about 1◦ C of additional worldwide warming. This amount is below
even the most conservative estimates of the IPCC for the next 50 years.
EROSION ON THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST

Parts of coastal Louisiana and Mississippi could lose as much as 1 foot
of elevation within 10 years according to an analysis by the National
Geodetic Survey of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
tration (NOAA). The NOAA researchers have warned that populated
areas will face increased dangers from storm surges and flooding due to
ongoing subsidence of coastal areas along the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Coastal wetlands in Louisiana have been disappearing at the rate of 33
football fields per day (Bourne, 2004, 89). The NOAA researchers esti-
mate that at the present rate of subsidence, 15,000 square miles of land
along the southern Louisiana coast will subside to sea level or below
within the next 70 years (Coastal Gulf, 2003). Shoreline in this area is
sinking due to natural processes as well as the withdrawal of subsurface
oil and water. In southern Louisiana, roughly 1 million acres of coastal
marsh were converted to open water between 1940 and 2000, with losses
accelerating over time with a quickening pace of sea level rise (Inkley
et al., 2004, 8, 13). All of this makes the area especially vulnerable to
hurricanes such as Katrina of 2005.
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Pacific Islands Going Under
Many Pacific Ocean islands face two problems: the sea is rising while the
land itself is slowly sinking, as 65-million-year-old coral atolls reach the end
of their life spans. The atolls were formed as formerly volcanic peaks sank
below the ocean’s surface, leaving rings of coral.
For 5 years, the government of Tuvalu has noticed many such troubling
changes on its nine inhabited islands and concluded that, as one of the
smallest and most low-lying countries in the world, it is destined to become
among the first nations to be sunk by a combination of global warming-
provoked sea level rise and slow erosion. The evidence before their own
eyes, including forecasts for a rise in sea level as much as 88 centimeters
during the twenty-first century by international scientists, has convinced
most of Tuvalu’s 10,500 inhabitants that rising seas and more frequent
violent storms are certain to make life unlivable on the islands, if not for
them, for their children (Barkham, 2002, 24).
Residents of the islands have been seeking higher ground, often in other
countries. The number of Tuvalu’s residents living in New Zealand, for
example, doubled from about 900 in 1996 to 2,000 in 2001, many of them
fleeing the rising seas on their home islands. A sizable Tuvaluan community
has grown up in West Auckland (Gregory, 2003). The highest point on
Tuvalu is only about 3 meters above sea level. “From the air,” wrote Patrick
Barkham in the London Guardian, “[i]ts islands are thin slashes of green
against the aquamarine water. From a few miles out at sea, the nation’s
numerous tiny uninhabited islets look smaller than a container ship and
soon slip below the horizon” (Barkham, 2002, 24).
“As the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean creeps up on to Tuvalu’s
doorstep, the evacuation and shutting down of a nation has begun,”
Barkham wrote. “With the curtains closed against the tropical glare, the
prime minister, Koloa Talake, who sits at his desk wearing flip-flops and
bears a passing resemblance to Nelson Mandela,” likens his task to the cap-
tain of a ship: “The skipper of the boat is always the last man to leave a
sinking ship or goes down with the ship. If that happens to Tuvalu, the
prime minister will be the last person to leave the island” (Barkham, 2002,
24).
Many Pacific island farmers report that their crops of swamp taro (pulaka),
a staple food, are dying because of rising soil salinity (Barkham, 2002, 24).
Another staple food, breadfruit (artocarpus altilis), is also threatened by
Rising Seas 81
saltwater inundation. The breadfruit is harvested from large evergreen trees

with smooth bark and large, thick leaves which reach a height of 20 meters
(about 60 feet).
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INCREASING FLOODS EXPECTED IN BANGLADESH
Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries on Earth, is likely to suf-
fer disproportionately from global warming. Cyclones there historically
have killed many people; 130,000 people died in such a storm during
April 1990. Less than one-fourth of Bangladesh’s rural population has
electricity; the country, as a whole, emits less than 0.1 percent of the
world’s greenhouse gases, compared to 24 percent by the United States
(Huq, 2001, 1617). Bangladesh is planning to use solar energy for new
energy infrastructure but lacks the money to build seawalls to fend off
rising sea levels.
Saleemul Huq, chairman of the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced
Studies in Dhaka and director of the Climate Change Programme of the
International Institute for Environment and Development in London,
said that the world community has an obligation to pay serious attention
to the views of people who stand to lose the most from climate change
(Huq, 2001, 1617). A sea level rise of half a meter (about 20 inches) could
drown about 10 percent of Bangladesh’s habitable land, the home, in
2004, of roughly 6 million people.
A 1-meter water level rise would put 20 percent of the country (and 15
million people) under water (Radford, 2004, 10). In addition to sea level
rise caused by warming, large parts of the Ganges Delta are subsiding
because water has been withdrawn for agriculture, compounding the
problem.
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Venice, Italy, is Drowning
Floods have been a problem in Venice, Italy, for most of its centuries-long
history, but sinking land and slowly rising seas due to global warming have
worsened flooding during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries.
Venice, which sits on top of several million wooden pillars pounded into
marshy ground, has sunk by about 7.5 centimeters per century for the past
1,000 years. The rate is accelerating. Increased floods have provoked plans
for movable barriers across the entrance to Venice’s lagoon.
Venice has lost two-thirds of its population since 1950; the 60,000 people
who still live in the city host 12 million tourists a year who make their way
over planks into buildings with foundations rotted by frequent flooding.
At the Danieli, one of Venice’s most luxurious hotels, tourists arrive on

wooden planks raised 2 feet above the marble floors amidst a suffocating
stench from the high water (Poggioli, 2002).
Waters are rising around Venice for several reasons, in addition to slowly
rising seas. During the twentieth century, mudflats that once impeded the
sea’s advance were dredged for shipping and other forms of development.
Venice is also subsiding due to the removal of water from its aquifers for
human use (Nosengo, 2003, 609).
Venice residents and visitors have become accustomed to drills for “ac-
qua alta,” or high water. A system of sirens much like the ones that convey
tornado warnings in the U.S. Midwest sounds when the water surges. Restau-
rants have stocked Wellington boots and moved their dining rooms upstairs.
Venetian gondoliers ask their passengers to shift fore and aft—and watch
their heads—as they pass under bridges during episodes of high water (Ru-
bin, 2003). Some of the gondoliers have hacked off their boats’ distinctive
tailfins to clear the bridges brought closer by rising waters.
Faced with rising waters, Venice has proposed construction of massive
retractable dikes in an attempt to hold the water at bay, amid considerable
controversy. After 17 years of heated debate, the Venice’s MOSE (Mod-
ulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) project will cost about US$1 billion. Some
environmentalists assert that the barriers will destroy the tidal movement re-
quired to keep local lagoon waters free of pollution and thereby damage ma-
rine life. Water quality near Venice is already precarious because pollution
has leached into the lagoon from industry, homes, and motor traffic. The
Italian Green Party favors shaping the lagoon’s entrances to reduce the ef-
fects of tides, along with raising pavements as much as a meter inside Venice.
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WARMING AND POSSIBLE CHANGES IN OCEAN CIRCULATION
The term “thermohaline” is used to describe worldwide ocean circu-
lation because water density (which causes it to rise or fall in the ocean)
is determined by both temperature and salinity (saltiness). This flow is
part of what marine scientists call the Global Conveyor, a vast submarine
flow of water around the world. As part of this conveyor, water flows
north from the tropics, in the Gulf Stream, which helps to keep Britain
and much of Western Europe warmer than might be expected for such
a northerly latitude. The Gulf Stream delivers 27,000 times more heat
to British shores than all of the nation’s power stations supply (Radford,
2001, 3).
The salinity of the North Atlantic is closely related to world ocean
circulation. If the North Atlantic becomes too fresh (due, most likely,
to melting Arctic ice), its waters could stop sinking, and the Conveyor
Rising Seas 83
Worldwide ocean circulation ( Jeff Dixon)
could slow, even perhaps stop. Spencer R. Weart, in The Discovery of

Global Warming, provided a capsule description of possible changes in
the ocean’s thermohaline circulation under the influence of sustained,
substantial global warming: “If the North Atlantic around Iceland should
become less salty—for example, if melting ice sheets diluted the upper
ocean layer with fresh water—the surface layer would no longer be dense
enough to sink. The entire circulation that drove cold water south along
the bottom could lurch to a halt. Without the vast compensating drift
of tropical waters northward, a new glacial period could begin” (Weart,
2003, 64).
A report presented at the annual meeting of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science during February 2005 by Ruth Curry,
a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, indicated that
massive amounts of freshwater from melting Arctic ice were flowing
into the Atlantic Ocean. According to Curry’s research, between 1965
and 1995, about 4,800 cubic miles of freshwater (more water than Lake
Superior, Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and Lake Huron combined) melted
from the Arctic region and poured into the northern Atlantic.
Curry projected that if this pattern continued at current rates, the ther-
mohaline circulation might begin to shut down in about two decades.
Furthermore, said Curry, Greenland’s ice, which had not been melt-
ing quickly, is now thawing at more rapid rates. “We are taking the
first steps,” Curry said in a news conference. “The system is moving

in that direction” (Borenstein, 2005, A-6). In the longer run, accord-
ing to calculations by Curry and colleagues, “at the observed rate, it
would take about a century to accumulate enough freshwater (e.g., 9,000
cubic thousand cubic meters) to substantially affect the ocean exchanges
across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and nearly two centuries of con-
tinuous dilution to stop them (Curry et al., 2005, 1774).
By 2007, however, other studies were discounting this possibility, as
changes earlier believed to be long-term erosion were being regarded,
instead, as part of natural variation. Stuart Cunningham of the National
Oceanography Centre at Southampton, U.K., and colleagues found that
the thermohaline circulation had varied by as much as 25 percent in a
year.
EVIDENCE THAT THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION MAY BE
BREAKING DOWN
Evidence has been published indicating that ocean circulation is al-
ready breaking down, although researchers are unsure whether this is
evidence of a natural cycle, an effect caused by warming sea waters, or
both (Häkkinen and Rhines, 2004, 559). Analysis has been restricted by
the limited nature of data gathered before 1978. “These observations of
rapid climatic changes over one decade [the 1990s] may merit some con-
cern,” according to informed observers (Häkkinen and Rhines, 2004,
559).
Evidence suggests that the North Atlantic has cooled while the rest of
the world has been warming—a possible result of thermohaline disrup-
tion. During the last half of the twentieth century, research reports indi-
cate a “dramatic” increase in freshwater released into the North Atlantic
by melting ice. This “freshening” is well under way (Speth, 2004, 61).
According to scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
this is “the largest and most dramatic oceanic change ever measured in
the era of modern instruments” (Scientists Warn, 2004). By 2002, the
amount of freshwater entering the Arctic Ocean was 7 percent more
than during the 1930s (Speth, 2004, 61).
According to oceanographer Ruth Curry, sea surface waters in trop-
ical regions have become dramatically saltier during the past 50 years,
while surface waters at high latitudes, in Arctic regions, have become
much fresher. These changes in salinity accelerated during the 1990s as
global temperatures warmed. “This is the signature of increasing evap-
oration and precipitation” because of warming, Curry said, “and a sign
of melting ice at the poles. These are consequences of global warming,
either natural, human-caused or, more likely, both” (Cooke, 2003, A-2).
Rising Seas 85
Richard A. Kerr, writing in Science, said, “To Curry and her colleagues, it’s
looking as if something has accelerated the world’s cycle of evaporation
and precipitation by 5 percent to 10 percent, and that something may
well be global warming” (Kerr, 2004, 35). These results indicate that
freshwater has been lost from the low latitudes and added at high lati-
tudes, at a pace exceeding the ocean circulation’s ability to compensate,
the authors said.
THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION: DEBATING POINTS

The idea that failure of the thermohaline circulation could cause
colder temperatures on continents bordering the North Atlantic Ocean
(North America and Europe) is highly debatable, as well as politically
controversial. The debate was given extra force in 2001 when one of
the idea’s major proponents backed away from it. Earlier, Wallace S.
Broecker of Columbia University had stated that “business as usual”
fossil fuel use could trigger an abrupt reorganization of the Earth’s
thermohaline circulation. He also has said that doubling atmospheric
levels of carbon dioxide could “cripple the ocean’s conveyor circulation”
(Broecker, 2001, 83).
Broecker (1987, 123–126; 1997, 1582–1588) suggested that if the Gulf
Stream is blocked, winter temperatures in the British Isles could fall by
an average of 11◦ C, plunging Liverpool or London to the same tem-
peratures as Spitsbergen, inside the Arctic Circle. Any dramatic drop
in temperature could have devastating implications for agriculture and
for Europe’s ability to feed itself. In a book published by the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists, however, Broecker nearly reversed
his earlier position. Broecker said, “I apologize for my previous sins,” of
over-emphasizing the Gulf Stream’s role (Kerr, 2002, 2202).
As is often the case in debates regarding global warming’s possible
effects on the Earth’s ecosystem, the entire idea that a breakdown in
the Gulf Stream could plunge Europe into a cold climate as the rest
of the world experiences rising temperatures has been disputed. Is the
Gulf Stream really the main climate driver warming Europe’s winters?
In October 2002, a team of scientists writing in the Quarterly Journal of
the Royal Meteorological Society asserted that this popular assumption was
incorrect. Rather, they maintained, Europe is warmed “by atmospheric
circulation tweaked by the Rocky Mountains [and] . . . summer’s warmth
lingering in the North Atlantic” (Kerr, 2002, 2202).
Richard Seager of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Ob-
servatory in Palisades, New York, and David Battisti of the University of
Washington headed this study, which sought to determine the relative
influences of various influences on European climate. They noted that
winds carry five times as more heat out of the tropics to the midlatitudes
than oceanic currents. They also estimated that roughly “80 percent of
the heat that cross-Atlantic winds picked up was summer heat briefly
stored in the ocean rather than heat carried by the Gulf Stream” (Kerr,
2002, 2202). Seager and colleagues relegate the Gulf Stream to the role
of a minor player in Europe’s wintertime climate. They asserted, how-
ever, that the Gulf Stream does play a major role in warming Scandinavia
and keeping the far northern Atlantic free of ice (Seager et al., 2002,
2563).
RISING CARBON DIOXIDE LEVELS AND ACIDITY IN THE OCEANS
MAY KILL MARINE LIFE
Carbon dioxide levels are now rising in the oceans more rapidly than
at any time since the age of the dinosaurs, according to a report pub-
lished on September 25, 2003 in Nature. Ken Caldeira and Michael E.
Wickett wrote, “We find that oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels
may result in larger pH changes over the next several centuries than any
inferred in the geological record of the possible 300 million years, with
the possible exception of those resulting from rare, extreme events such
as bolide impacts or catastrophic methane hydrate degassing” (Caldeira
and Wickett, 2003, 365). A “bolide” is a large extraterrestrial body (usu-
ally at least a half mile in diameter, perhaps much larger) that impacts
the Earth at a speed roughly equal to that of a bullet in flight.
Rising carbon dioxide levels in the oceans could threaten the health
of many marine organisms, beginning with plankton at the base of the
food chain. Regarding the acidification of the oceans, “[w]e’re taking a
huge risk,” said Ulf Riebesell, a marine biologist at the Leibniz Institute
of Marine Sciences in Kiel, Germany. Chemical conditions in the oceans
100 years from now will probably have no equivalent in the geological
past, “and key organisms may have no mechanisms to adapt to the
change” (Schiermeier, 2004, 820). “If we continue down the path we are
going, we will produce changes greater than any experienced in the past
300 million years—with the possible exception of rare, extreme events
such as comet impacts,” Caldeira, of the Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, warned (Toner, 2003). Since carbon dioxide levels began to
be measured on a systemic basis worldwide in 1958, its concentration in
the atmosphere has risen 17 percent.
Until now, some climate experts have asserted that the oceans would
help to control the rise in carbon dioxide by acting as a filter. Caldeira
and Michael Wickett said, however, that carbon dioxide that is removed
from the atmosphere enters the oceans as carbonic acid, gradually
raising the acidity of ocean water. According to their studies, the change
Rising Seas 87
over the last century already matches that of 10,000 years preceding the
Industrial Age. Caldeira pointed to acid rain from industrial emissions to
indicate the severity of coming changes in the oceans. “Most ocean life
resides near the surface, where the greatest change would be expected
to come, but deep ocean life may prove to be even more sensitive to
changes,” Caldeira said (Toner, 2003).
Marine plankton and other organisms whose skeletons or shells con-
tain calcium carbonate, which can be dissolved by acid solutions, may
be particularly vulnerable. Coral reefs, which already are suffering from
pollution, rising ocean temperatures, and other stresses, are almost en-
tirely calcium carbonate (Toner, 2003). “It’s difficult to predict what
will happen because we haven’t really studied the range of impacts,”
Caldeira said. “But we can say that if we continue business as usual, we
are going to see some significant changes in the acidity of the world’s
oceans” (Toner, 2003).
PHYTOPLANKTON DEPLETION AND WARMING SEAS
Several sea species, notably zooplankton (a major base of the oceanic
food chain), have moved toward the poles between 1960 and 1999 in re-
sponse to increasing water temperatures. “We provide evidence of large-
scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in
the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. . . . Strong
bio-geographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with
a northward extension of more than 10 degrees latitude of warm-water
species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species,”
wrote Gregory Beaugrand and colleagues in Science (Beaugrand et al.,
2002, 1692).
This study was based on an analysis of 176,778 samples collected by the
Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey taken monthly in the North At-
lantic since 1946. The scientists wrote, “The observed bio-geographical
shifts may have serious consequences for exploited resources in the
North Sea, especially fisheries. If these changes continue, they could
lead to substantial modifications in the abundance of fish, with a decline
or even a collapse in the stock of boreal species such as cod, which is
already weakened by over-fishing” (Beaugrand et al., 2002, 1693–1694).
CORAL REEFS “ON THE EDGE OF DISASTER”
Aside from the obvious ravages of fishermen who blast the reefs and
pour cyanide on them, the reefs are also threatened by rising ocean
temperatures that many marine biologists attribute to global warming
and short-term climate events such as El Nino episodes in the Pacific
Ocean. Most corals live very close to the upper limits of their heat
A coral reef ( Jeff Dixon)
tolerance. Temperature rises of only a few degrees over a sustained

period cause death of living organisms within coral reefs.
The scope of corals’ devastation from climate change and other hu-
man impacts rivals the losses endured by the flora and fauna of the
world’s great rainforests. According to a number of estimates, half of
the world’s coral reefs may be lost by 2025 unless urgent action is taken
to save them from the ravages of pollution, fishing with dynamite and
other explosives, and warming waters. Many of the coral reefs that are
falling prey to human-induced destruction are among the largest living
structures on Earth. Many are more than 100 million years old.
Coral that has lost its ability to sustain plant and animal life turns
white, as if it has been doused in bleach. Afterwards, the dead coral
often becomes cloaked in a choking shroud of gray algae. Because coral
polyps and their calcium carbonate skeletons “are the foundation of the
entire ecosystem, fish, mollusks, and countless other species, unable to
survive in this colorless graveyard, rapidly disappear, too” (Lynas, 2004,
107).
Warnings of coral reefs’ destruction have been widespread in the
scientific literature. The journal Science, for example, devoted a cover
story to the subject in its August 15, 2003, issue, wherein T. P. Hughes
and colleagues concluded that “[t]he diversity, frequency, and scale of
human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are
threatened globally” (Hughes et al., 2003, 929). Prominent among these
Rising Seas 89
impacts is anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere and oceans that

may exceed limits under which corals have flourished for a half-million
years. Some types of corals are more vulnerable to warming than others,
however, so “reefs will change rather than disappear entirely” (Hughes
et al., 2003, 929). Rising ocean temperatures, however, will certainly
reduce biological diversity among corals.
Callum M. Roberts and colleagues, writing in Science, sketched the
scope of possible extinctions faced by the world’s coral reefs:
Analyses of the geographic ranges of 3,235 species of reef fish, corals, snails,
and lobsters revealed that between 7.2 percent and 53.6 percent of each taxon
[type of coral] have highly restricted ranges, rendering them vulnerable to
extinction. . . . The 10 richest centers of endemism cover 15.8 per cent of the
world’s coral reefs (0.012 per cent of the oceans) but include between 44.8
and 54.2 per cent of the restricted-range species. Many occur in regions where
reefs are being severely affected by people, potentially leading to numerous
extinctions. (Roberts et al., 2002, 1280)
Traveling in the Indian Ocean, Mark Spalding, lead author of the

World Atlas of Coral Reefs (Spalding et al., 2001) wrote, in the London
Guardian,
Over the next six weeks we watched the corals of the Seychelles die. Corals
are to reefs what trees are to forests. They build the structure around which
other communities exist. As the corals died they remained in situ [in place]
and the reefs became, to us, graveyards. Fine algae grows over a dead coral
within days, and so the reefs took on a brownish hue, cob-webbed. In fact,
the fish still teemed and in many ways it still appeared to be business as usual,
but as we traveled—over 1,500 kilometers across the Seychelles—the scale of
this disaster began to sink in. Everywhere we went was the same, and virtually
all the coral was dying or already dead. . . . What I witnessed in the Seychelles
was repeated in the Maldives and the Chagos Archipelago. In these Indian
Ocean islands alone, 80 to 90 per cent of all the coral died. (Spalding, 2001,
8; Spalding et al., 2001)
Ss
Warming Waters Choke Life out of Lake
Tanganyika
Two independent teams of scientists studying central Africa’s Lake Tan-
ganyika, Africa’s second-largest body of freshwater, have found that warm-
ing at the lake’s surface has reduced mixing of nutrients, reducing the
lake’s population of fish. These reductions affected the local economy as
fishing yields fell by a third or more during 30 years, with more declines ex-
pected. When its waters were cooler, Lake Tanganyika’s fish supplied 25 to
40 percent of the protein consumed by neighboring peoples in parts of

Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Lake Tanganyika is a tropical body of water that experiences relatively
high temperatures year-round, so the scientists were surprised to discover
that further warming affected its nutrient balance to such a great degree.
Like other deepwater lakes, however, Tanganyika relies on temperature
differences at various depths to mix water and nutrients. Such mixing is very
critical in tropical lakes with sharp temperature gradients that stratify layers
of water, with warm, less-dense layers on top of nutrient-rich waters below.
“Climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika,”
Catherine M. O’Reilly and colleagues wrote. “In parallel with regional warm-
ing patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century,” they continued,
“a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water
column” (O’Reilly et al., 2003, 766). A regional decrease in average wind
speed over the lake also contributed to reduced mixing of the 1,470-meter-
deep lake, “decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into
surface waters” (O’Reilly et al., 2003, 766). Fish yields have declined roughly
30 percent, the scientists wrote, in an example “that the impact of regional
effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions can be
larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or over-fishing” (O’Reilly
et al., 2003, 766). Lake Tanganyika is especially vulnerable because year-
round tropical temperatures accelerate biological processes, “and new nu-
trient inputs from the atmosphere or rock weathering cannot keep up with
the high rates of algal photosynthesis and decomposition” (Verschuren,
2003, 731–732).
Lake Tanganyika is the second-deepest lake in the world and the second-
richest in terms of biological diversity; it has at least 350 species of fish, with
new ones being discovered regularly. Nutrient mixing has been vital for
its biodiversity (Connor, 2003). Piet Verburg, of the University of Waterloo
in Canada, and O’Reilly, of the University of Arizona, who led the studies,
found that warmer temperatures and less windy weather in the region has
been starving the lake’s life of essential salts that contain nitrogen and sulfur
(Verburg et al., 2003, 505–507). Verburg and colleagues utilized profiles of
temperature changes in the lake between 110 and 800 meters deep and
found that degree of temperature stratification had tripled. In other words,
the various levels of the lake had mixed less, depriving fish of food since
1913.
O’Reilly and colleagues, writing in Nature, suggested that the lake’s pro-
ductivity, measured by the amount of photosynthesis, has fallen by 20 per-
cent, which could easily account for the 30 percent decline in fish yields.
The scientists said that climate change, rather than overfishing, was mainly
responsible for the collapse in Tanganyika’s fish stocks. With additional
warming, fish populations in the lake are expected by the scientists to de-
cline further (Connor, 2003).
Rising Seas 91
“The human implications of such subtle, but progressive, environmental

changes are potentially dire in this densely populated region of the world,
where large lakes are essential natural resources for regional economies,”
the scientists said. Dirk Verschuren, a freshwater biologist at Ghent Univer-
sity in Belgium, said that both studies could explain why sardine catches in
Lake Tanganyika have declined between 30 and 50 percent since the late
1970s (Verschuren, 2003, 731–732). “Since overexploitation is at most a lo-
cal problem on some fishing grounds, the principal cause of this decline has
remained unknown,” Verschuren said. “Taken together . . . the data in the
two papers provide strong evidence that the effect of global climate change
on regional temperature has had a greater impact on Lake Tanganyika than
have local human activities. Their combined evidence covers all the impor-
tant links in the chain of cause and effect between climate warming and the
declining fishery” (Connor, 2003).
Ss
Increasing Populations and Potency
of Jellyfish
Some sea species thrive on conditions that kill others. For example, con-
sider jellyfish, which seem to increase their size and populations (as well
as potency of their stings) in warmer, polluted waters. In some areas the
increase also appears to be part of a natural cycle (jellyfish populations are
also declining in a few other areas) (Pohl, 2002, F-3). By the summer of
2004, reports indicated that jellyfish populations were on the rise in Puget
Sound, the Bering Strait, and the harbors of Tokyo and Boston. “Smacks”
or swarms of jellyfish shut down fisheries in Narragansett Bay, parts of the
Gulf of Alaska, and sections of the Black Sea. In the Philippines, 50 tons of
jellyfish shut down a power plant, causing blackouts, when they were sucked
into its cooling system (Carpenter, 2004, 68). In late July 2003, thousands
of barrel jellyfish and moon jellyfish washed up on the coast of southern
Wales.
“Jellies are a pretty good group of animals to track coastal ecosystems,”
said Monty Graham, a scientist at the University of South Alabama. “When
you start to see jellyfish numbers grow and grow, that usually indicates a
stressed system” (Pohl, 2002, F-3). Those stresses include increased water
temperature, a rise in nutrients (from fertilizers and sewage), and depleted
stocks of other fish, often caused by overfishing, which removes the jellyfish’s
competitors. All of these changes are usually human-caused, according to
Graham.
In Australia, regarding jellyfish stings, Jamie Seymour, a jellyfish expert
at James Cook University, said in 2002, “This year [was] incredibly abnor-
mal” (Pohl, 2002, F-3). Seymour believes that strong, unusual wind patterns
helped to blow the jellyfish toward the shore, where they flourished in
A jellyfish (scyphomedusa or sea nettle) ( Jeff Dixon)
unseasonably warm waters. Seymour, who has analyzed the venom from
each sting that receives hospital treatment in the Barrier Reef region for
years, had never seen the type of venom that killed two tourists in 2002.
In the Gulf of Mexico, according to a report in The New York Times, shrimp
fishermen are struggling with a rising numbers of jellyfish that fill their nets
with slimy gelatin, ruining their catch (Pohl, 2002, F-3).
At about the same time when increasingly potent jellyfish were being
found in the South Pacific, a report appeared in The Boston Globe describ-
ing a massive infestation of jellyfish in Narragansett Bay and Long Island
Sound. A group of fishermen who expected “an array of marine life in
their nets . . . got jellyfish, nothing but jellyfish; jellyfish so plentiful that the
gelatinous organisms came up dangling through the net like slimy icicles.
And with each haul came more” (Arnold, 2002, C-1).
“Eventually it seemed that our deck was coated with Vaseline,” said Cap-
tain Eric Pfirrmann, who works for Save The Bay, a group whose members
engage in environmental issues related to Rhode Island’s Narragansett Bay.
He piloted a research vessel that had taken several high school teachers
on a marine field trip. “I’ve seen blooms like this before,” Pfirrmann said,
“but never so early in the summer.” The culprit is a nonstinging inverte-
brate about the size and shape of a tulip blossom and commonly known as
the combjelly. These jellyfish, along with sea squirts (an entirely different
organism), were taking over Long Island Sound, thriving in large part be-
cause water temperatures have risen about 3◦ F over the past two decades,
according to scientists (Arnold, 2002, C-1).
Ss
Rising Seas 93
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5
Plants, Animals,
and Human Health
The growth of human populations around the world along with resulting
habitat loss and pollution have, together with warming temperatures
during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, set the stage for one
of the great mass extinctions of plants and animals in the geophysical
history of the Earth. “The biotic response to 30 years of enhanced global
warming [1970–2000] has become perceptible and substantial,” wrote
Gian-Reto Walther, who has published several scientific “meta studies”
that evaluate hundreds of specific articles evaluating the response of
flora and fauna to changing climatic conditions (Walther, 2003, 177).
Walther’s surveys range the world, describing increasing stands of palm
trees in Switzerland (Walther et al., 2002, 129–139) and the migration
of frost-sensitive tropical plants up on the mountains in Hong Kong, as
well as the northern movement of holly in Scandinavia (Walther, 2003,
173), to cite three examples of many.
Scientists have examined periods in the distant past in which rapid in-
creases in worldwide temperatures from natural causes led to widespread
extinctions of plants and animals. These episodes are not being studied
only as academic exercises but as examples of what can happen when
Earth’s climate heats suddenly, as is expected during the expected global
warming of the twenty-first century. Along this road, other scientists have
been exploring how “enhanced” (that is, unusually elevated) levels of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases affect plant growth and re-
production. Effects on the behavior and reproduction of many animal
species, including human beings, were already becoming evident at the
beginning of the century. What follows is a survey of a world in flux, with
the major changes in the lives of Earth’s plant and animals still to come.
Not all plants and animals will be harmed by a rapidly warming
environment. Unfortunately, however, most of these are species that
humankind finds obnoxious, such as poison ivy, ragweed, jellyfish, and

ticks.
MASS EXTINCTIONS WITHIN A CENTURY?

We are now witnessing one of the Earth’s most intense, rapid, and
pervasive mass extinctions, which has placed in harm’s way many plants
and animals that humankind does not eat or keep as pets. The Earth has
experienced mass extinctions before, but all of them have been more
gradual than today’s, and they have resulted from natural causes. Global
warming is a product of humankind’s increasing dominance of the Earth
that is devastating the native habits of many animals and plants, driving
increasing numbers to the brink of extinction.
Compared to past mass extinctions, which were caused by natural
catastrophes such as meteor strikes or large-scale volcanic eruptions,
the present-day human-driven wave of extinctions has been occurring
with frightening speed. Given the projected rises in temperature during
decades to come, the plants and animals of our home planet have thus
far seen only their first troubles.
In the first study of its kind, researchers of a range of habitats includ-
ing northern Britain, the wet tropics of northeastern Australia, and the
Mexican desert said early in 2004 that given “mid-range” climate change
scenarios for 2050, they expect that 15 to 37 percent of the species in
the regions they studied (covering 20 percent of Earth’s surface) will be
“committed to extinction” (Thomas et al., 2004, 145). The number of
extinctions is expected to vary with the amount of warming. The study
used United Nations projections that world average temperatures will
rise 2.5◦ F to 10.4◦ F by 2100. “We’re not talking about the occasional
extinction—we’re talking about 1.25 million species. It’s a massive num-
ber,” the authors of this study wrote (Gugliotta, 2004, A-1).
The study, described in Nature, was the first time that scientists have
produced a global analysis with estimates of the effect of climate change
on many various animal and plant habitats. Thomas led a 19-member
international team that surveyed habitat decline for 1,103 plant and
animal species in Europe; Queensland, Australia; Mexico’s Chihuahua
Desert; the Brazilian Amazon; and the Cape Floristic Region at South
Africa’s southern tip (Gugliotta, 2004, A-1).
MASS EXTINCTIONS: WHAT HAPPENED 250 MILLION YEARS AGO?
The worst mass extinction in the history of the planet could be repli-
cated in as little as a century if global warming continues at the pace
Plants, Animals, and Human Health 99
forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Re-

searchers at England’s Bristol University have estimated that a 6◦ C (10◦ F)
increase in global temperatures was enough to play a role in up to a 95
percent extinction rate of species which were alive on Earth at the end
of the Permian period 251 million years ago. This is roughly the same
amount of warming expected by the IPCC, if levels of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere continue to rise at present rates (Reynolds, 2003, 6).
The temperature rise 251 million years ago occurred over thousands
of years, however, while the one which we are now experiencing could
happen in a century.
According to present theories, first advanced by Anthony Hallam and
Paul Wignall (1997), the volcanic eruptions 251 million years ago trig-
gered climatic feedbacks that accelerated global warming of about 6◦ C.
The wave of mass extinction at the end of the Permian period was prob-
ably caused by a series of very large volcanic eruptions that triggered a
runaway greenhouse effect that nearly extinguished life on Earth. Con-
ditions in what geologists have called a “post-apocalyptic greenhouse”
were so severe that 100 million years passed before species diversity
returned to former levels. Michael Benton, head of earth sciences at
Bristol University, commented, “The end-Permian crisis nearly marked
the end of life. It’s estimated that fewer than one in ten species survived.
Geologists are only now coming to appreciate the severity of this global
catastrophe and to understand how and why so many species died out
so quickly” (Reynolds, 2003, 6).
The Permian heat wave was felt first and most intensely in tropical
regions; loss of species diversity spread from there. Reduction of vege-
tation, soil erosion, and the effects of increasing rainfall wiped out the
lush, diverse habitats of the tropics, which would today lead to the loss
of animals such as hippos, elephants, and many primates, according to
Benton (Reynolds, 2003, 6). He added, “The end-Permian extinction
event is a good model for what might happen in the future because
it was fairly non-specific. The sequence of what happened then is dif-
ferent from today because then the carbon dioxide came from massive
volcanic eruptions, whereas today it is coming from industrial activity.
However, it doesn’t matter where this gas comes from; the fact is that
if it is pumped into the atmosphere in high volumes, then that gives
us the greenhouse effect and leads to the warming with all the other
consequences” (Reynolds, 2003, 6).
In a chapter of his book When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinc-
tion of All Time (2003) titled “What Caused the Biggest Catastrophe of
all Time?” Benton sketched how the warming (which was accompanied
by anoxia) may have fed upon itself:
The end-Permian runaway greenhouse may have been simple. Release of car-
bon dioxide from the eruption of the Siberian Traps [volcanoes] led to a rise
in global temperatures of 6 degrees C. or so. Cool polar regions became warm
and frozen tundra became unfrozen. The melting might have penetrated to
the frozen gas hydrate reservoirs located around the polar oceans, and mas-
sive volumes of methane may have burst to the surface of the oceans in huge
bubbles. This further input of carbon into the atmosphere caused more warm-
ing, which could have melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. So the process
went on, running faster and faster. The natural systems that normally reduce
carbon dioxide levels could not operate, and eventually the system spiraled
out of control, with the biggest crash in the history of life. (Benton, 2003,
276–277)
Greg Retallack, an expert in ancient soils at the University of Ore-

gon in Eugene, has speculated that the same methane “belch” was of
such a magnitude that it changed the composition of the air enough
to provoke mass extinction of some land animals by oxygen starvation.
Bob Berner of Yale University has calculated that a cascade of effects
involving wetlands and coral reefs may have reduced oxygen levels in
the atmosphere from 35 percent to just 12 percent in only 20,000 years.
Marine life may also have suffocated in oxygen-poor water (Suffocation,
2003). One animal, the meter-long reptile, Lystrosaurus, survived because
it had evolved to live in burrows, where oxygen levels were low and car-
bon dioxide levels high. According to a report by the New Scientist News
Service, “[i]t had developed a barrel chest, thick ribs, enlarged lungs,
a muscular diaphragm and short internal nostrils to get the oxygen it
needed” (Suffocation, 2003).
According to Chris Lavers, writing in Why Elephants Have Big Ears
(2000), a spike of worldwide warming contributed to this mass extinction
in part because all of the Earth’s continents at the time were combined
into one land mass (Lavers, 2000, 231). Warming of tropical regions at
this time has been estimated at about 11◦ F, with larger rises near the
poles that tended to create a generally warm atmosphere planet-wide,
“a flattening of the temperature difference between the poles and the
equator” (Lavers, 2000, 232), a condition that Lavers suspects drasti-
cally slowed or shut down ocean mixing (Thermohaline Circulation;
see Chapter 4), killing many sea creatures. “Unstirred,” wrote Lavers,
“the oceans begin to stagnate. Deep waters gradually lost oxygen, and
species began to vanish” (Lavers, 2000, 233).
REDUCED CROP YIELDS

Popular belief often assumes that because plants use carbon dioxide
to respire (“breathe”), more of it will help them grow faster and stronger.
Such an assumption turns out to be very simplistic. Added heat and hu-
midity also can increase insect infestations and disease in plants. For ex-
ample, the same fungus that caused the Irish potato famine has migrated
4,000 feet up the slopes in the Andes to the town of Chacllabamba, Peru,
because of warmer, wetter weather. Potato breeders are trying to outwit
the fungus by developing new breeds of tubers (Halweil, 2005, 18).
Hartwell Allen, a researcher at the University of Florida, and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture, has been growing rice, soybeans, and
peanuts under controlled conditions, varying temperatures, humidity,
and carbon dioxide levels. They have found that while higher tempera-
tures (to a point) and carbon dioxide levels stimulate faster and denser
growth, both create problems at most plants’ flowering and pollination
stages. At temperatures above 36◦ C during pollination, peanut yields
dropped 6 percent per degree Celsius of temperature. John Sheehy of
the International Rice Research Institute in Manila found that damage
to the world’s major grain crops begins during flowering at about 30◦ C.
At about 40◦ C, the plants’ yields fall to zero. At his center, the average
temperature has risen 2.5◦ C in 50 years, frequently reaching damaging
levels. In rice, wheat, and maize, yields fall 10 percent for every degree
above 30◦ C. Higher nighttime temperatures in particular inhibits plants’
ability to respire and saps their energy (Halweil, 2005, 19–20). Planting
of shade trees amongst crops may help reduce heat stress in the short
run.
Global warming is creating a drag on production of the world’s food
and animal feed crops, as well as the raw materials for biofuels, accord-
ing to scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the
Carnegie Institution at Stanford University. In the journal Environmental
Research Letters, two ecologists reported that yields of corn, wheat and
barley had declined by about 40 million tons every year since 1981 from
what farms worldwide should have produced. The annual value of those
lost crops is about $5 billion(Hoffman, 2007).
Crop yields have been climbing generally, continuing for almost half
a century of improvements in plant varieties, fertilizers, and irrigation.
An analysis by Livermore climate scientist David Lobell and Christo-
pher Field, head of Carnegie Department of Global Ecology at Stanford
University, concluded, however, that the “gains had been restricted by
rising heat around the world during the last 20 years” (Hoffman, 2007).
“At least for wheat, corn and barley, temperature trends in the last few
decades have been in the direction of holding yields down,” Field said.
“They’re still increasing, but if temperatures hadn’t been warming, they
would have been increasing more” (Hoffman, 2007).
“I think what we’re seeing is the direct effects of climate change
are negative” for some major row crops, said Lobell. “There’s still this
big question of what CO2 is doingSo far, technology has kept crop yields
growing so that supply keeps pace with soaring demand for food,” Lobell
said. “But it’s a race, and I think of climate change as a sort of headwind
for the supply increase,” he said, “We’re talking about potentially much
slower increases in supply that will eventually start to lose ground to
demand. The question is whether they can keep pace” (Hoffman, 2007).
WARMING MAY REDUCE RICE YIELDS

Even small temperature increases could be enough to reduce rice
yields significantly over the next century. Researchers at the Univer-
sity of Florida tested several varieties of rice, growing them in cham-
bers that simulated various temperature change situations. They found
that although the rice plants themselves flourished no matter what the
temperature, yields that are edible declined sharply as temperatures in-
creased. Even a modest temperature increase could reduce rice yields
by 20 to 40 percent by 2100, the researchers said, while larger increases
predicted by more extreme forecasts could cut rice production almost
to zero (Fountain, 2000, F-15).
In another study, researchers from China, the United States, and the
Philippines analyzed weather data from the International Rice Research
Institute Farm in Los Banos (near Manila), Philippines, from 1979 to
2003 and compared these records with rice yields at the same loca-
tion from 1992 to 2003. They found that annual mean maximum and
minimum temperatures at the location increased by 0.35◦ C and 1.13◦ C
respectively between 1979 and 2003; grain yields declined by 10 per-
cent for each 1◦ rise in growing season’s minimum temperatures during
the dry cropping season (January through April). “This report,” they
wrote in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “[p]rovides direct
evidence of decreased rice yields from increased nighttime tempera-
ture associated with global warming” (Peng et al., 2004, 9971). Globally,
nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime readings
because greenhouse gases tend to trap more heat radiating from the
ground, reducing cooling (Fountain, 2004, F-1).
Kenneth G. Cassman of the University of Nebraska, who participated
in this study, said that researchers were working to determine the cause
of the yield reduction, but they speculated that it was because the hotter
nights made the plants work harder just to maintain themselves, divert-
ing energy from growth. “If you think about it, world records for the
marathon occur at cooler temperatures because it takes much more en-
ergy to maintain yourself when running at high temperatures. A similar
phenomenon occurs with plants,” he said (Schmid, 2004). Tim L. Setter,
a professor of soil, crop, and atmospheric science at Cornell University,
who did not take part in this study, commented that higher nighttime
temperatures “could consume carbohydrates in a nonproductive way,
and by reducing the reserves of carbohydrates, particularly at time of
flowering and early grain filling, would decrease the number of kernels
that would be set” (Schmid, 2004).
CHANGES FOR PLANTS AND ANIMALS WITH SMALL

TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
Even with a global temperature rise of only 0.6◦ C during the twentieth
century, a small fraction of the warming expected in years to come,
important changes for plants and animals have been noticed around
the Earth, according to one of the most detailed studies of climate
change. An international team of scientists working across a range of
disciplines found “a major imprint on wildlife” during the twentieth
century (Connor, 2002, 11).
Writing in Nature, Gian-Reto Walther and colleagues said,
There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate

change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The response
of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierar-
chies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty
as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review
exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we
are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological
responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Walther et al.,
March 28, 2002, 389)
Walther, an ecologist at the University of Hanover in Germany and

lead author of the study, said, “We want to emphasize that climate-change
impacts are not something we expect for the future but something that is
already happening. We are convinced of that. If you have so many studies
from so many regions with so many different species involved and all
pointing to the same direction of warmer temperatures, then to me
it’s quite convincing” (Connor, 2002, 11). The study included work by
British specialists in amphibian breeding cycles and Antarctic ecology,
German experts on bird migration, and Australian marine biologists

studying changes to coral reefs in tropical oceans.
Walther continued, “[This is] the first time that researchers from
various disciplines have come together to compare their own work.
We made comparisons between and across various ecosystems and we
compared different species to look for common traits—and they all
point to the same direction of warmer temperatures. We know that the
global average temperature has increased by 0.6 degrees C. For many
people this may sound very minor, but we are quite surprised that this
minor change has had so many impacts already on natural ecosystems”
(Connor, 2002, 11).
All of the scientists found that typical springtime activities, such as
arrival and breeding of migrant birds or the first appearance of butter-
flies and plants, have occurred progressively earlier during the past 40
years (Connor, 2002, 11). Meanwhile, some warm weather species and
diseases have extended their ranges. “There is much evidence that a
steady rise in annual temperatures has been associated with expanding
mosquito-borne disease in the highlands of Asia, East Africa and Latin
America,” the scientists said (Connor, 2002, 11).
To cite a few examples among many, mosses and other plants have be-
gun to grow in parts of the Antarctic that were previously considered too
cold for such life. Many coral reefs around the world have also under-
gone mass “bleaching” on at least six occasions since 1979, all of which is
related to warmer sea temperatures. Changes in wind patterns over the
Bering Sea and their interaction with local patterns of ocean circulation
have affected the distribution of walleye pollack, an important “forage
species” for other fish and sea mammals (Connor, 2002, 11).
Changes in ocean circulation around the Antarctic Peninsula have
influenced the breeding range of the krill, an important shrimp-like an-
imal at the base of the Antarctic food chain. In Britain, warmer winters
have caused newts to breed earlier, bringing them into contact with the
eggs and young of the common frog at a point when they are most vul-
nerable to predation, said Trevor Beebee, professor of molecular biology
at the University of Sussex and a coauthor of the study (Connor, 2002,
11). “Newts and other amphibians with a protracted breeding season
are responding to climate change whereas frogs and toads which usually
breed earlier are not,” Beebee said, “You can relate these changes to tem-
perature changes observed over the same period” (Connor, 2002, 11).
Common changes observed by this team of scientists included earlier
spring breeding and first singing of birds, arrival of migrating birds,
appearance of butterflies, spawning in amphibians, as well as earlier
shooting and flowering of plants. In general, according to this report,

spring activities have occurred progressively earlier since the 1960s, at
a rate that is easily observable within a single human lifespan (Walther
et al., 2002, 389).
SPECIES MOVING TOWARD THE POLES

Other scientific studies indicate that species are generally moving to-
ward the poles—northward in the northern hemisphere and (with a
smaller number of examples) southward below the equator. Two stud-
ies involving several thousand plant and animal species throughout the
world, from plankton to polar bears, provide ample evidence that cli-
mate change is reshaping animal and plant habitats at an increasing
rate.
During the fall of 2007, after the Arctic lost almost one-fourth of its
ice cap in one summer, warnings regarding the demise of polar bears
became more strident. “Just 10 more years of current global warming
pollution trajectories will commit us to enough warming to melt the
Arctic and doom the polar bear to extinction,” said Kassie Siegel, di-
rector of the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate, Air, and Energy
Program. “We urgently need to address global warming, not just for the
sake of the polar bear but for the sake of people and wildlife around the
world” (Comment Period, 2007).
Many studies suggest that habitat change is already well under way.
“There is a very strong signal from across all regions of the world that
the globe is warming,” said Terry Root of Stanford University’s Center
for Environmental Science and Policy, who headed one of the research
teams. “Thermometers can tell us that the Earth is warming, but the
plants and animals are telling us that global warming is already having a
discernible impact. People who don’t believe it should take their heads
out of the sand and look around” (Toner, 2003, 1-A).
Root and colleagues, in their “meta-analysis” of 143 studies, con-
cluded,
More than 80 per cent of the species that show changes are shifting in the
direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species.
Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests
that a significant impact of global warming is already discernable in animal
and plant populations. The synergism [combination] of rapid temperature
rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt
the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species
communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous
extirpations and possibly extinctions. (Root et al., 2003, 570)
Root’s team and another, headed by Camille Parmesan, a biologist

at the University of Texas, Austin, examined hundreds of studies de-
scribing more than 2,000 plants and animals—from shrimp, crabs, and
barnacles off the Pacific coast of California to cardinals that nest in
Wisconsin—to see whether they could spot the “fingerprint” of chang-
ing global temperatures (Toner, 2003, 1-A). Parmesan and Gary Yohe
calculated that range shifts toward the poles had averaged 6.1 kilometers
per decade, with an advance in the beginning of spring by 2.3 days per
decade (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003, 37).
According to Parmesan and Yohe’s analysis, some birds and butterflies
had shifted as many as 600 miles northward. Grasses, trees, and other
species that lack mobility have moved shorter distances. In a finding
that resembled other studies, they found that springtime behavior was
occurring earlier, in this case by more than two days per decade. A
study of more than 21,000 swallow nests in North America, for example,
indicated that the species was laying its eggs nine days earlier in the year
2000 than in 1960 (Toner, 2003, 1-A).
In mountains, various species responded to warming by moving up
in elevation, seeking habitats that were similar to areas they had for-
merly occupied at lower altitude. In some areas, such the Great Smoky
Mountains, the mountain peaks had become shrinking “islands” for
cool weather species (Toner, 2003, 1-A). The Root and Parmesan studies
both indicated that the largest changes in temperature as well as habitat
movement were taking place in the polar regions, where temperature
increases have been the greatest.
“The most remarkable thing is that we have seen so many changes in so
many parts of the world from a relatively small increase in temperature,”
Root told Mike Toner of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “When you
consider that some people are predicting warming that would be 10
times greater by the end of this century, it’s spooky to think about what
the consequences might be” (Toner, 2003, 1-A).
Ss
Alligators Moving Northward Along the
Mississippi River
In mid-May 2006, alligators were sighted in the backwaters of the Mississippi
River as far north as Memphis, Tennessee. “It’s possible that alligators have
had a northern range expansion due to the mild winters we’ve had in the
past 10 years,” wildlife agent Gary Cook said (Gators Spotted, 2006). The
Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency received reports of alligator sightings
An alligator ( Jeff Dixon)
on McKellar Lake, a backwater of the Mississippi just south of Memphis,

and at T.O. Fuller State Park, north of the city. Up to five alligators may have
been seen, including one said to be close to 7 feet long that was reportedly
spotted on a bank beside McKellar Lake. “It was just laying out in the sun,”
said Kay Vescovi, a chemical plant manager at a nearby industrial park,
“Nobody was concerned, just kind of shocked that they’re this far north”
(Gators Spotted, 2006).
Stan Trauth, a zoology professor at Arkansas State University, said alliga-
tors spotted in the Memphis region might be former pets that were released
into the wilds. “Moving north is not what they would want. They would
want to stay in the more moderate climate,” Trauth said. Trauth, who has
tracked alligators released in Arkansas by wildlife agents, said the region is
along the northern edge of animals’ survival range. “They’re reaching their
physiological tolerance in the winter in this area,” he said (Gators Spotted,
2006).
Ss
Armadillos Spreading Northward
The armadillo (Spanish for “little armored thing”), a subtropical animal
with a hard shell, can be used as an indicator of climate change. The nine-
banded armadillo (the only species in the United States) has migrated
northward from South America over a very long period of time. The first
nine-banded armadillo was sighted in the United States in 1849, a migrant
from Mexico into Texas, where they were sighted in the 1850s. A century
ago, the armadillo’s range was restricted largely to Mexico, southern Texas,
and parts of deserts in Arizona and New Mexico. By late in the twentieth
century, armadillos were being sighted in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Geor-
gia. Armadillos’ range is restricted by temperature because they have little
body fat and eat insects and neither hibernate nor store food. They can
A nine-banded armadillo ( Jeff Dixon)
survive freezes in burrows or under buildings, however. They live in small

colonies and give birth in identical quadruplets (Crable, 2005, C-5).
The armadillo has been chosen as Texas’ official state small mammal.
During the Great Depression, they were known as “Hoover Hogs” by down-
on-their luck Americans who had to eat them instead of the “chicken in
every pot” Herbert Hoover had promised as president (Suhr, 2006). The
Houston Chronicle remarked in 2006 that the armadillo “has become a Yan-
kee.” “During periods of warm winters, they’ll disperse north during the
summers and won’t die off in the winter, so the next summer, they’ll dis-
perse a little further,” said Duane Schlitter, program leader for nongame
species and rare and endangered species at the Texas Parks and Wildlife
Department (Kever, 2006, 1).
Armadillos’ accustomed range expanded rapidly as temperatures warmed
after 1990, as motorists reported colliding with the animals (which seem
to have very little street sense) as far north as southern North Carolina,
Kentucky, Illinois, and near Lincoln, Nebraska, where one was reported
during August 2005, licking up bugs on U.S. Route 50. “Over the last seven
or eight years, we’ve been getting more regular reports of armadillos,” said
Mike Fritz, a natural heritage zoologist with the Nebraska Game and Parks
Commission (Laukaitis, 2005, A-1).
The nine-banded armadillo is expanding its range 10 times faster than
the average rate expected for a mammal, according to Dr. Joshua Nixon,
a Michigan State researcher who runs a Web site, “Armadillo Online!”
(www.msu.edu/∼nixonjos/armadillo). Contrary to popular assumptions,
the nine-banded armadillo cannot roll into a ball when threatened, but
they are good swimmers, able to ford rivers by puffing air into their lungs
and forging ahead, dog-paddle style. They have been discovered riding
hobo-style on freight trains.
Jackson County animal control chief Lloyd Nelson said in 2006 that he
had logged 13 sightings since 2003 in his Southern Illinois county alone.
“All the evidence, the sightings and the number of road kills would indicate
that their numbers are increasing,” said Clay Nielsen, a wildlife ecologist
at Southern Illinois University in Carbondale. In Illinois in recent years,
“there’s been quite a spurt in sightings” of the nocturnal animal. A few have
been sighted in the southern suburbs of Chicago. Some may be released by
people who tired of having them as pets, but others seem to have migrated
northward themselves (Suhr, 2006).
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Major-league Baseball Bats May Be Victims
of Warming
The ash tree, traditional source of major-league baseball bats, is being killed
by a beetle species, the emerald ash borer, which may be encouraged by
warming temperatures. Owners of bat factories in the ash country of North-
western Pennsylvania have made emergency plans they will call upon if the
white ash tree, source of the best wood, is, as the plan says, “compromised.”
Seeds of the same tree are being collected in Michigan in case natural
species are endangered.
Asian wasps were imported and set loose in ash forests during 2007 to
attack the shiny-green emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire),
itself an Asian immigrant, which has killed upwards of 25 million ash trees
in Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Maryland after it was first found
near Detroit in 2002 (Davey, 2007). By late-June 2007, the ash borer was
invading the choice baseball bat ash groves in Pennsylvania, near the border
with New York State.
Warming temperatures may be partially to blame for the ash borer’s
expansion because a longer growing season is causing the white ash’s wood
to become softer, making it an easier prey for the beetles. Changes in the
wood’s density also make it less suitable for baseball bats. Warmer weather
may also speed up the reproductive cycle of the beetle
“We’re watching all this very closely,” said Brian Boltz, the general man-
ager of the Larimer & Norton Company, whose Russell mill each day saws,
grades, and dries scores of billets destined to become Louisville Slugger
bats. “Maybe it means more maple bats. Or it may be a matter of using a dif-
ferent species for our bats altogether” (Davey, 2007). Barry Bonds of the San
Francisco Giants has been using maple bats. The major leagues also could
turn to aluminum bats, which are used in college-level and junior-league
baseball.
As with most aspects of global warming, this one is open to debate. Dan
Herms, an associate professor of entomology at Ohio State University, denies
a link between the ash borer and climate change because the beetles survive
in a wide range of temperatures in Asia (Davey, 2007).
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Decline of the Cuckoo in England
The cuckoo, England’s herald of spring, a bird well known for the male’s
distinctive call (as well as for laying its eggs in nests built by other birds) is
disappearing from the British countryside. Cuckoo numbers have declined
by 30 percent during the past 30 years in urban areas, while in woodland ar-
eas cuckoos have declined by as much as 60 percent. The cuckoo migrates to
all parts of the country from winter feeding grounds in sub-Saharan Africa.
David Marley of the Woodland Trust said that the cuckoo’s preferred wood-
land habitat was particularly vulnerable to global warming, which could be
affecting its breeding season and food supplies (Smith, 2002).
“The cuckoo is one of the most amazing birds you can come across in
Britain, but it is declining by a staggering amount and we are getting reports
from across the country that people just aren’t hearing it any more,” Marley
said. Other theories for the 30-year slump in Cuckoo populations include
habitat loss and the spread of intensive farming practices. At its wintering
places in Africa, Cuckoos may also be suffering from indiscriminate use of
agricultural chemicals as well as widespread drought (Smith, 2002).
The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) believes that cuckoos in Britain
number between 12,000 and 24,000 pairs, down from 17,500 to 35,000 in
1970. The Woodland Trust has launched a study that will record cuckoo
sightings and build up data that will document the changing ecology that
may help to explain why cuckoos are in sharp decline. Reports will be added
to data collected since 1726 to help to monitor the impact of climate change.
Volunteers will watch out for cuckoos, as well as other wildlife, including
ladybirds, bumblebees, and swallows (Smith, 2002).
While some birds were declining in England as weather warmed, others
were flourishing. For example, the number of wild parrots was rising rapidly
by 2004, with 100,000 expected by the end of the decade. The parrots, which
are large and aggressive birds, were competing with domestic species, such as
starlings, jackdaws, and small owls, for food and territory (Prigg, 2004, A-9).
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WARMING, DEFORESTATION, AND THE DEVASTATION OF
MOUNTAIN HABITATS
Tropical mountain forests depend on predictable, frequent, and pro-
longed moisture-bearing clouds. Clearing upwind lowland forests alters
surface energy budgets in ways that influence dry season cloud fields
(Lawton et al. 2001, 584). Cloud forests form where mountains force
trade winds to rise above condensation level, the point where cloud
form as moisture condenses. “We all thought we were doing a great job
of protecting mountain forests [in Costa Rica],” said Robert O. Lawton,
a tropical forest ecologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville,

Alabama. “Now we’re seeing that deforestation outside our mountain
range, out of our control, can have a big impact” (Yoon, 2001, F-5).
The clearing of forests, sometimes many miles from the mountains,
changes this pattern, often raising the elevation at which clouds form.
Lawton and colleagues used LANDSAT and Geostationary Operational
Environment Satellite images to measure such changes in the Mon-
teverde cloud forests of Costa Rica. They found that their “simulations
suggest that conversion of forest to pasture has a significant impact on
cloud formation” (Lawton et al., 2001, 586). Patterns found in Costa
Rica resemble those in other tropical areas, including parts of the Ama-
zon Valley. “These results suggest that current trends in tropical land
use will force cloud forests upward, and they will thus decrease in area
and become increasingly fragmented—and in many low mountains may
disappear altogether” (Lawton, et al., 2001, 587).
Deforestation’s effects probably extend further than most observers
have believed. “Mountain forests . . . may be affected by what’s happening
some distance away,” said Lawton. Each year about 81,000 square miles
of tropical forests are cleared, Hartshorn said (Polakovic, 2001, A-1).
Thus, the weather in the lush cloud forests of Costa Rica is changing
because of land use changes, including deforestation, many miles away.
As trees on Costa Rica’s coastal plains are removed and replaced by
farms, roads and settlements, less moisture evaporates from soil and
plants, in turn reducing clouds around forested peaks 65 miles away. At
risk is the Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve, an ecosystem atop a Central
American mountain spine, “a realm of moss and mist, the woodland
in the clouds—a type of rain forest—[that] is home to more than 800
species of orchids and birds, as well as jaguar, ocelot and the Resplendent
Quetzal, a plumed bird sacred to the Mayans.” The same area also is a
watershed that supplies farms, towns, and hydropower plants in the
lowlands (Polakovic, 2001, A-1).
These findings are consistent with similar localized weather changes
observed in the deforested parts of the Amazon basin. Scientists say
that cloud forests in Madagascar, the Andes, and New Guinea are also
at risk. According to this study, “[t]hese results suggest that current
trends in tropical land use will force cloud forests upward and they will
thus decrease in area and become increasingly fragmented and in many
low mountains may disappear altogether,” the scientists concluded (Po-
lakovic, 2001, A-1). “It’s incredibly ominous that over such a distance
deforestation can alter clouds in mountains. This is a very serious con-
cern,” said Gary S. Hartshorn, president of the Organization for Tropical
Studies, a consortium of rain forest researchers at Duke University. “This

is confirmation of what we have predicted for a long time,” said Stanford
University ecologist Gretchen Daily. “The implications are very serious
for the tropics and other parts of the world” (Polakovic, 2001, A-1).
FROGS THREATENED WORLDWIDE

In 2004, the first worldwide survey of 5,743 amphibians species (frogs,
toads, and salamanders) indicated that one in every three species was in
danger of extinction, many of them likely victims of an infectious fun-
gus possibly caused by drought or global warming (Stokstad, 2004, 391).
Findings combined efforts by more than 500 researchers from more
than 60 countries. “The fact that one-third of amphibians are in a pre-
cipitous decline tells us that we are rapidly moving toward a potentially
epidemic number of extinctions,” said Achim Steiner, director-general
of The World Conservation Union based in Geneva (Seabrook, 2004,
1-C.). “Amphibians are one of nature’s best indicators of the over-
all health of our environment,” said Whitfield Gibbons, a herpetolo-
gist at the University of Georgia’s Savannah River Ecology Laboratory
(Seabrook, 2004, 1-C.; Stokstad, 2004, 391).
Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly
than birds or mammals. “The lack of conservation remedies for these
poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibians species
now face extinction,” wrote the scientists who conducted the worldwide
survey (Stuart et al., 2004, 1783–1786).
In North and South America, the Caribbean, and Australia, a major
culprit appears to be the highly infectious fungal disease, chytridiomycosis.
New research shows that prolonged drought may cause outbreaks of the
disease in some regions, although some scientists attribute the disease
spread to global warming. Other threats include loss of habitat, acid rain,
pesticides and herbicides, fertilizers, consumer demand for frog legs,
and a depletion of the ozone layer that leaves the frogs’ skin exposed to
radiation (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C). Gibbons said that the loss of wetlands
and other habitat to development, agriculture and other reasons might
be the leading cause of amphibian declines in Georgia. Pollution might
also be playing a significant role, he said. “It’s hard to find a pristine
stream anymore,” he said (Seabrook, 2004, 1-C).
WARMING AND THE DECLINE OF OREGON’S WESTERN TOAD
Global warming could be playing a role in the decline of the western
toad in Oregon, according to a report that was among the first to link
climatic change with amphibian die-offs in North America (Pounds,
2001, 639). The wave of toad population declines could be a warning

of ecological chain reactions that may be triggered by warming. J. Alan
Pounds, who has researched the decline of the golden toad in Costa Rica
from his post with the Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and Tropical
Science Center in Costa Rica, described the situation in Oregon: “In the
crystal-clear waters surrounded by snow-capped peaks in the Cascade
range, the jet-black [western toad] embryos are suffering devastating
mortality. They develop normally for a few days, then turn white and die
by the hundreds of thousands” (Pounds, 2001, 639).
Research by Joseph M. Kiesecker of Pennsylvania State University and
colleagues indicates that the toads’ fatal infection results from a com-
plex sequence of events provoked by warming temperatures. Kiesecker
and colleagues wrote that “[e]levated sea-surface temperatures in this
region [the western United States] since the mid-1970s, which have af-
fected the climate over much of the world, could be the precursor for
pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions” (Kiesecker
et al., 2001, 681). “Reductions in water depth due to altered precipi-
tation patterns expose the embryos to damaging ultraviolet b (UV-B)
radiation, thereby opening the door to lethal infection by a fungus,
Saprolegnia ferax” (Pounds, 2001, 639).
Depth of water influences the amount of UVB radiation that reaches
the toads’ eggs; less water depth is related to the El Nino/La Nina cycle,
which, Kiesecker and colleagues theorize, is related to climate change.
Similar patterns have been detected in cases of mass frog and toad
mortality from other parts of the world. In some areas, fungus-borne
diseases afflict lizards as well as frogs and toads (Pounds, 2001, 639–
640). Given what Kiesecker and others have found, Pounds believes that
“[t]here is clearly a need for a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources
if we are to avoid staggering losses of biodiversity” (Pounds, 2001, 640).
Kiesecker’s results support those of Pounds who, in 1999, reported
that warmer and drier periods in the cloud forest atop the Continental
Divide at Monteverde were tied to El Nino events and had caused mas-
sive population reductions in more than 20 frog species, including the
disappearance of the golden toad (Souder, 2001).
SEABIRDS STARVE AS WATERS WARM
The survival of seabirds on New Zealand’s sub-Antarctic islands is
related to supplies of krill that are declining as waters warm. Populations
of rockhopper penguins, a species with brilliant yellow eyebrows which
nests on the rocks of windblown Campbell Island, have declined by more
than 95 percent since the 1940s. A breed of albatross called gray-headed
mollymawks has declined by 84 percent. Muttonbirds are down by a

third and elephant seals by about half, according to a report in the New
Zealand Herald (Collins, 2002).
A study by New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric
Research (NIWAR) said that the collapse of the rockhopper penguin
population was due to the birds’ inability to find enough food in a less-
productive marine ecosystem. “The cause is reduced productivity of the
ocean where they are feeding,” said NIWAR scientist Paul Sagar, “They
eat mainly krill but they do also eat small fish and squid” (Collins, 2002).
This research measured the amount of food available to the penguins
in the sea during the preceding 120 years by analyzing feathers from
rockhoppers alive today compared with those of 45 museum specimens
from the Antipodes and Campbell Island. Results indicated declining
numbers of phytoplankton in the rockhoppers’ diet (Collins, 2002).
Sagar said that further research was required to learn why phytoplank-
ton populations have declined; some scientists assert that the declining
populations result from water that has become too warm for a species
that is adapted to the sub-Antarctic. “It could be a long-run natural
cycle, with the possibility that polar water coming up from the south
may not be coming as far north as it used to,” Sagar said, “It could be
that the position of the currents has changed so the productive areas
have moved further south or north, away from where the penguins are
feeding. If it’s happening over such a long time, I wouldn’t put it down
specifically to global warming” (Collins, 2002). He said that the study
used the rockhoppers as an “indicator species,” because it was likely that
the same changes in climate and phytoplankton populations were also
causing decline in other birds’ populations.
Another study, at New Zealand’s Otago University, indicated that mut-
tonbird numbers had dropped by a third on one of their major breeding
islands. Conservation Department scientist Peter Moore, who studied
the rockhoppers on Campbell Island in 1996, said that their numbers
declined from 1.6 million breeding pairs in 1942 to 103,000 pairs in
1985 and had continued to fall at a similar rate since (Collins, 2002).
Sagar said there was evidence that some of the adult birds were feeding
better quality food to their chicks, while their own diet declined, but
Moore said the orphaned chicks often died as well. During 1990 many
surviving chicks from a yellow-eyed penguin colony were fed and reared
by humans after their parents died. But after the chicks were released,
99 percent of them disappeared (Collins, 2002).
Seabird population declines have spanned the world, for similar rea-
sons. In Scotland, for example, guillemots, arctic terns, kittiwakes, and
other seabird colonies on the Shetland and Orkney Islands in 2004 ex-
perienced one of their worst breeding seasons in memory. The Royal
Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) observed very few chicks on
the breeding cliff ledges. Sandeels, the small fish on which the birds
feed, have migrated northward, probably because of warming waters,
placing the birds’ traditional food supply largely out of reach, so they
have had difficulty reproducing and feeding their young.
BIRD EXTINCTIONS: BALTIMORE WITHOUT ORIOLES

Maryland’s Baltimore orioles, which have been declining due to habi-
tat loss for many years, could vanish altogether late in the twenty-first
century due to changes in migration patterns strongly influenced by a
warming climate. A study by the National Wildlife Federation and the
American Bird Conservancy “suggests that the effects of global warming
may be robbing Maryland and a half-dozen other states of an important
piece of their heritage by hastening the departure of their state birds”
(Pianin, 2002, A-3).
The report said that Earth’s rising temperature “is already shifting
songbird ranges, altering migration behavior and perhaps diminishing
some species’ ability to survive” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). Iowa and Washing-
ton State may lose the American goldfinch, as New Hampshire’s purple
finch could become a historical relic. California could lose the Cali-
fornia quails, Massachusetts’ black-capped chickadee may vanish, and
Georgia could lose its brown thrasher (Pianin, 2002, A-3).
The life cycle of the oriole and other birds is tied closely to weather
patterns that are changing with general warming. Seasonal changes in
weather patterns tell the birds when they should begin their long flights
southward in the fall and back again in the spring. Temperature and
precipitation also influence the timing and availability of flowers, seeds,
and other food sources for the birds when they reach their destinations
(Pianin, 2002, A-3).
Peter Schultz, a global warming expert with The National Research
Council, a nonprofit organization, cautioned that long-term forecasts of
disruptions in bird migration patterns are difficult. “I would be surprised
if the distribution of state birds is not changed down the road,” he said,
“But predicting precisely where they’ll be 50 years from now is very
difficult, if not impossible, with the current state of knowledge” (Pianin,
2002, A-3).
Baltimore orioles (Icterus galbula) were once so numerous that the
naturalist painter John J. Audubon wrote about the delight of hearing
“the melody resulting from thousands of musical voices that come from
some neighboring tree” (Pianin, 2002, A-3). The bird, a Maryland icon
whose name was adopted by Baltimore’s major-league baseball team, was
officially designated the state bird in 1947. Local legend maintains that
George Calvert, the first baron of Baltimore, liked the oriole’s bright-
orange plumage so much that he adopted its colors for his coat of arms.
Global warming is not the only danger to the oriole and other well-
known birds. Its decline results also from diminishing breeding habitat
and forests in North America (where orioles spend summers) and in
Central and South America, where they fly for the winter. “Climate
change on top of fragmented habitat is the straw that breaks the camel’s
back,” said Patricia Glick, an expert on climate change with the National
Wildlife Federation (Pianin, 2002, A-3).
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Warmth Changes the Sex Ratio of Loggerhead
Sea Turtles
A loggerhead sea turtle ( Jeff Dixon)
As many as 85 percent of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings living on beaches

in the southern United States are now female, a sex ratio caused by a warm-
ing habitat that threatens this endangered species. A lack of males may
cause the species to become extinct (Lazaroff, 2002). “These turtles have
very small gonads at this age and are difficult to identify,” said Jeanette
Wyneken, an assistant professor of biological sciences at Florida Atlantic
University, who is an expert on sea turtle anatomy and turtle conservation
(Lazaroff, 2002). According to a report by the Environment News Service,
“The skewed sex ratios can arise because the temperature of the sand sur-
rounding a turtle nest plays a strong role in determining the sex of turtles,
with warmer temperatures favoring females” (Lazaroff, 2002). Given a few
more degrees of warming, all the turtles’ offspring will be female, and the
loggerheads will go extinct.
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BARK BEETLES SPREAD ACROSS U.S. WEST
Nine years of intense drought and rising temperatures by 2007 had
created perfect conditions for bark beetle infestations across the U.S.
West. By the fall of 2002, large areas of evergreen forests in Western
Montana and the Idaho Panhandle, as well as parts of California, Col-
orado, and Utah had fallen victim to unusually large infestations of
bark beetles, including the Douglas fir bark beetle, spruce beetle, and
mountain pine beetle. The infestations were being encouraged by sev-
eral factors: a warming trend, which allows the beetles to multiply more
quickly and reach higher altitudes; drought, which deprives trees of sap
they would usually use to keep the beetles under control; and years of
fire suppression, which increased the amount of elderly wood suscepti-
ble to attack. Beetles, attacking in “epic proportions,” had killed many
stands of trees within a few weeks (Stark, 2002, B-1). According to an
observer, “The vast tracts of Douglas fir that stood green and venerable
for generations [east of Yellowstone National Park] are peppered and
painted with swaths of rusty red and gray. For Douglas fir, those are the
colors of death” (Stark, 2002, B-1).
Tens of millions of trees across the West have been killed at a rate never
seen before. Warmer temperatures accelerate the beetles’ reproduction
cycle, killing trees more quickly. Some types of beetles that used to breed
two generations a year are now reproducing three times. “This is all due
to temperature,” said Barbara Bentz, a research entomologist with the
U.S. Forest Service who is studying bark beetles. “Two or three degrees
is enough to do it” (Wagner, 2004). Outside Cody, Wyoming, an entire
forest has been killed by the drought and beetles. “It used to be a nice
spruce forest,” said Kurt Allen, a Forest Service entomologist. “It’s gone
now. You’re not going to get those conditions back for 200 or 300 years.
We’re really not going to have what a lot of people would consider a
forest” (Wagner, 2004).
Bill McEwen wrote in a letter to The New York Times, “I reside in the
semi-arid West, where scientists are just beginning to understand the
enormous synergistic [combination] impact of global warming, atmo-
spheric drying (drought), and the explosion in insect populations that
is killing many of our forests. . . . On a recent vacation to the Northwest,

I drove through Sun Valley, Idaho. Around Sun Valley and the nearby
Salmon River Valley, entire mountainsides of forest are now being de-
stroyed by out-of-control bark beetle infestations” (McEwen, 2004, A-16).
AMAZON VALLEY: DROUGHT, DEFORESTATION, AND WARMING

During 2005 a severe drought spread through the Amazon Valley at
the same time that satellite surveys indicated that damage from logging
in the same area had been 60 to 120 percent more than previously
reported. “We think this [additional logging] adds 25 percent more
carbon dioxide to the atmosphere” from the Amazon than previously
estimated, said Michael Keller, an ecologist with the U.S. Department of
Agriculture’s Forest Service and coauthor of an Amazon logging inven-
tory published in Science (Asner et al., 2005, 480–481; Naik and Samor,
2005, A-12).
This new survey differed from others that measured only the clear-
cutting of large forest areas. The study by Asner and colleagues included
these measures of deforestation and added trees cut selectively, while
much of surrounding forest was left standing in five Brazilian states
(Mato Grosso, Para, Rondonia, Roraima, and Acre) which account for
more than 90 percent of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (Asner
et al., 2005, 480). In addition, the Amazon Valley’s worst drought in
about 40 years was causing several tributaries to evaporate, probably
contributing even more carbon dioxide via wildfires.
In some areas of the Amazon Valley, the drought was the worst since
record keeping began a century ago. Some scientists asserted that the
drought was most likely a result, at least partially, of a rise in water
temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that also played a role in
spawning Hurricane Katrina and other devastating storms during the
2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. If global warming is involved, this
drought may only be an early indication of a new weather regime in the
Amazon Valley, which holds nearly a quarter of the world’s freshwater
(Giles, 2006, 726). The Amazon Valley could be caught in a double vise
as the world warms, as rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures combine with
El Nino events to provoke more frequent droughts. El Nino events tend
to reverse the air circulation over the Amazon from east-west to west-east,
setting up drying, downslope winds.
POISON IVY: OUR ITCHY FUTURE
Poison Ivy loves global warming. As rising levels of carbon dioxide
enhance growth of the plants, their oil (which produces the irritating
itch) becomes more potent. Ledwis Ziska, a plant physiologist with the
U.S. Department of Agriculture in Beltsville, Maryland, tested the ivy
at 300 ppm carbon dioxide (a level common in the 1950s) and at 400
ppm, a little higher than the 2007 level of 383. After eight months, leaf
size, stem length, weight, and oil content were 50 to 75 percent higher
for plants raised at the higher level (Parker-Pope, 2007, D-1).
At Duke University, researchers studied poison ivy growth under car-
bon dioxide levels matching the forecast for the middle of this century.
Over five growing seasons, plants grown under increased carbon diox-
ide weighed roughly 60 percent more than control plants and made
their oil (urushiol) significantly more abundant and potent, accord-
ing to Jacqueline E. Moohan, an assistant professor at the University of
Georgia who led the study. Plants grown in elevated amounts of CO2 pro-
duced more of the unsaturated version of urushiol than control plants.
And the unsaturated form is more allergenic (Fountain, 2006).
PALMS IN SOUTHERN SWITZERLAND
Gian-Reto Walther and his colleagues have tracked the expansion
of Trachycarpus fortunei, the windmill palm, (similar to the palmetto in
the United States), into southern Switzerland, following rising minimum
A windmill palm ( Jeff Dixon)

winter temperatures and a lengthening growing season. Windmill palms

have been reproducing naturally in the foothills of the southern Alps.
They have also been observed spreading into gardens and parks as far
north as southern costal England, Brittany (in France), the Netherlands,
and coastal southwestern British Columbia, all areas where warmer
nights have extended the average annual growing season to well over
300 days many years (Walther et al., 2007). The palms of Switzerland
are being observed about 300 kilometers (more than 200 miles) outside
their historical range. Scientists conclude that the spread of these palms
is a “significant global bio-indicator across continents for present-day
climate change and the projected global warming of the near future”
(Walther et al., 2007).
EFFECTS ON HUMAN HEALTH
When climate change scientists and diplomats met in Buenos Aires
during 1998, they were greeted by the news that mosquitoes carrying
dengue fever had invaded more than a third of the homes in Ar-
gentina’s most populous province, with 14 million people. The Aedes
aegypti mosquito appeared in Argentina during 1986; within 12 years, it
was found in 36 percent of homes in Buenos Aires province, according
to Dr. Alfredo Seijo of the Hospital Munoz. “Aedes aegypti now exists from
the south of the United States to Buenos Aires province and this is obvi-
ously due to climatic changes which have taken place in Latin America
over the past few years,” Seijo told a news conference organized by the
World Wildlife Fund at the United Nations climate talks in Argentina
(Webb, 1998).
Dengue fever, for which no vaccine exists, had been nearly eradi-
cated from North and South America by the 1970s. During the 1980s,
however, the disease increased dramatically in South America, infecting
more than 300,000 people by 1995. Also during 1995, Peru and the
Amazon Valley were especially hard hit by the area’s largest epidemic
of yellow fever since 1950, which is carried by the same mosquito that
transmits dengue fever. The annual world incidence of dengue fever,
which averaged about 100,000 cases between 1981 and 1985, averaged
450,000 cases a year between 1986 and 1990 (Gelbspan, 1997, 149).
Dengue fever is one of a number of mosquito-borne diseases that have
been increasing in coverage over many areas of the Earth—climbing al-
titude in the tropics and rising in latitude in temperate zones—as global
temperatures have warmed during the last quarter of the twentieth cen-
tury. Rising temperatures and humidity increase the range of many
illnesses spread by insects, including mosquitoes, warm weather insects
which die at temperatures below a range of 50◦ F to 61◦ F, depending on

species. Dengue, a common disease in tropical regions, is a prolonged,
flu-like viral infection that can cause internal bleeding, fever, and some-
times death. Dengue, which is sometimes called “breakbone fever,” may
be accompanied by headache, rash, and severe joint pain. The World
Health Organization lists dengue fever as the tenth deadliest disease
worldwide.
During 1995, an explosion of termites, mosquitoes, and cockroaches
hit New Orleans, following an unprecedented five years without a killing
frost. “Termites are everywhere. The city is totally, completely, inundated
with them,” said Ed Bordees, a New Orleans health official, adding,
“The number of mosquitoes laying eggs has increased tenfold” (Gelb-
span, 1997, 15). The situation in New Orleans was aggravated not only
by unusual warmth, but also by above-average rainfall totaling about
80 inches the previous year. Some of the 200-year-old oaks along New
Orleans’ St. Charles Avenue were eaten alive from the inside by billions
of tiny, blind, Formosan termites. The same year, dengue fever spread
from Mexico across the border into Texas for the first time since records
have been kept. Dengue fever, like malaria, is carried by a mosquito with
a range that is defined by temperature. At the same time, Colombia was
experiencing plagues of mosquitoes and outbreaks of the diseases they
carry, including dengue fever and encephalitis, triggered by a record
heat wave followed by heavy rains.
Mild winters with a lack of freezing conditions allow many disease-
carrying insects to expand their ranges. “Indeed,” commented Paul Ep-
stein of Harvard Medical School’s Center for Health and the Global
Environment, “[f]ossil records indicate that when changes in climate
occur, insects shift their range far more rapidly than do grasses, shrubs,
and forests, and move to more favorable latitudes and elevations hun-
dreds of years before larger animals do. ‘Beetles,’ concluded one clima-
tologist, ‘are better paleo-thermometers than [polar] bears’” (Epstein,
1998).
GLOBAL WARMING AND THE SPREAD OF DISEASES
John T. Houghton, author of Global Warming: The Complete Brief-
ing (1997), believes that global warming will accelerate the spread of
many diseases from the tropics to the middle latitudes. Mosquito-borne
malaria (which already kills more than a million people a year in the trop-
ics) could increase its present range, Houghton warned. “Other diseases
which are likely to spread for the same reason are yellow fever, dengue
fever, and . . . viral encephalitis,” he wrote (Houghton, 1997, 132). After
1980, small outbreaks of locally transmitted malaria occurred in Texas,

Georgia, Florida, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and California, usu-
ally during hot, wet spells. Worldwide, according to Epstein, between
1.5 and 3 million die of malaria each year, mostly children. Mosquitoes
and parasites that carry the disease have evolved immunities to many
drugs.
According to Epstein, “If tropical weather is expanding it means that
tropical diseases will expand. We’re seeing malaria in Houston, Texas”
(Glick, 1998). Epstein suggested that a resurgence of infectious disease
might be a result of global warming. Warming may appear beneficial at
first, Epstein said. Initially, some plants benefit from additional warmth
and moisture, an earlier spring, and more carbon dioxide and nitrogen
in the air. “But,” he cautioned, “[w]arming and increased CO2 can also
stimulate microbes and their carriers” (Epstein, 1998).
Since 1976, Epstein reported, thirty diseases have emerged which are
new to medicine. Old ones, such as drug-resistant tuberculosis, have
been given new life by new diseases (such as HIV/AIDS) that compro-
mise the human immune system. By 1998, tuberculosis was claiming
three million lives annually around the world. “Malaria, dengue, yellow
fever, cholera, and a number of rodent-borne viruses are also appear-
ing with increased frequency,” Epstein reported (Epstein, 1998). During
1995, mortality from infectious diseases attributed to causes other than
HIV/AIDS rose 22 percent above the levels of 15 years before in the
United States. Adding deaths brought about by HIV/AIDS, deaths from
infectious diseases have risen 58 percent in 15 years (Epstein, 1998).
The IPCC included a chapter on public health in an update of its 1990
assessment which concluded, “[C]limate change is likely to have wide-
ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant
loss of life” (Taubes, 1997).
Andrew Haines asserted, in Jeremy Leggett’s Global Warming: The
Greenpeace Report (1990),
Although winter bronchitis and pneumonia may be reduced [by global

warming], it is quite likely that hay fever and perhaps asthma could in-
crease. A combination of increases in temperature with increasing levels of
tropospheric ozone could have clinically important effects, particularly in pa-
tients with asthma and chronic obstructive airways disease. (Haines, 1990,
154)
Epstein identified three tendencies in global climate change and re-

lated each to an environment that encourages infectious diseases. The
three indicators are
(1) Increased air temperatures at high altitudes in the Southern Hemi-

sphere;
(2) A rise in minimum (usually nighttime) temperatures that is greater
than the rise in maximum (daytime) readings;
(3) An increase in extreme weather events, such as droughts and sudden
heavy rains (Epstein, 1998).
“There is growing evidence for all three of these tell-tale ‘fingerprints’

of enhanced greenhouse warming,” he said (Epstein, 1998).
A Sierra Club study indicated that a lengthy El Nino event during
the middle 1990s provided an indication of how sensitive some diseases
can be to changes in climate. This study cited evidence that warming
waters in the Pacific Ocean contributed to a severe outbreak of cholera
which led to thousands of deaths in Latin American countries during
the 1990s. According to health experts quoted by the Sierra Club study,
“[t]he current outbreak [of dengue fever], with its proximity to Texas,
is at least a reminder of the risks that a warming climate might pose”
(Sierra, 1999). The Sierra Club study concluded, “While it is difficult to
prove that any particular outbreak was caused or exacerbated by global
warming, such incidents provide a hint of what might occur as global
warming escalates” (Sierra, 1999).
Willem Martens et al., writing in Climatic Change, attempted to sketch
how a warmer, wetter climate would affect transmission of three diseases:
malaria, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever. Martens and colleagues fore-
cast that the size of areas affected by these diseases would expand with
global warming. The diseases will expand north and south, as well as into
higher mountains in the tropics. Martens and his colleagues expected
that “[t]he increase in epidemic potential of malaria and dengue trans-
mission may be estimated at 12 to 27 per cent and 31 to 47 per cent
respectively” (Martens et al., 1997, 145). In contrast, they forecast that
the transmission potential of schistosomiasis might decrease 11 to 17
percent.
MALARIA IN A WARMER WORLD
In the tropics, elevation has long been used to shield human popu-
lations from diseases that are widespread in the lowlands. With global
warming, mosquito-borne diseases have been reaching higher altitudes,
affecting peoples with little or no immunity. According to Pim Martens,
“[a] minor temperature rise will be sufficient to turn the populated
African highlands into an area that is suitable for the malaria mosquito
and parasite” (Martens, 1997, 537).
The malarial mosquito ( Jeff Dixon)
During 1997, malaria ravaged large areas of Papua New Guinea at an

elevation of 2,100 meters, notably higher than the 1,200 to 2,000 meters
that had heretofore provided a barrier to the disease in different parts
of central and southern Africa. In northwestern Pakistan, according to
Martens, a rise of about half a degree Celsius in the mean temperature
was a factor in a rising incidence of malaria there from a few hundred
cases a year in the early 1980s to 25,000 in 1990 (Martens, 1999, 537).
While most strains of malaria could be controlled, drug-resistant strains
were proliferating in the late twentieth century.
Writing in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (March,
1998), Epstein and seven coauthors described the spread of malaria and
dengue fever to higher altitudes in tropical areas of the Earth because
of warmer temperatures. Rising winter temperatures have also allowed
disease-bearing insects to survive in areas previously closed to them.
According to Epstein, frequent flooding which is associated with warmer
temperatures also promotes the growth of fungus and provides excellent
breeding grounds for large numbers of mosquitoes. The flooding caused
by Hurricane Floyd and other storms in North Carolina during 1999 are
cited by some as a real-world example of global warming promoting
conditions ideal for the spread of diseases imported from the tropics
(Epstein et al., 1998).
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s pro-
jections for human health, a rise in average global temperatures of
3◦ C to 5◦ C by 2100 could lead to 50 to 80 million additional cases
of malaria a year worldwide, “primarily in tropical, subtropical and
less well-protected temperate-zone populations” (IPCC, 1995). Italy
experienced a brief outbreak of malaria during 1997. Researchers at

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research expect the same
disease to reach the Baltic states by 2050. In parts of the world where
malaria is now unknown most people have no immunity (Brown, 1999).
The World Health Organization projected that warmer weather would
cause tens of millions of additional cases of malaria and other infectious
diseases. The Dutch health ministry anticipates that more than a million
people may die annually as a result of the impact of global warming on
malaria transmission in North America and Northern Europe (Epstein,
1999, 7).
Malaria could return to Britain, scientists at the University of Durham
warned as they announced a plan to produce a “risk map” showing which
areas were most likely to suffer an outbreak (Connor, 2001, 14). With
millions of tourists visiting malaria-infested regions of the world, the
risk of the disease making a comeback was further increased by global
warming, which expanded mosquito habitat in the United Kingdom,
said Rob Hutchinson, an entomologist at the university, at the annual
meeting of The Royal Entomological Society in Aberdeen. He said that
of the 25 million overseas visitors who came to Britain in 1999, about
260,000 came from Turkey and the countries of the former Soviet Union,
where vivax malaria was endemic and health care was poor (Connor,
2001, 14).
DEATHS FROM HEAT WAVES
Historically, heat stress has been the foremost weather-related cause
of death in the United States. During the second half of the twentieth
century, however, even as temperatures rose, the rate of heat-related
deaths declined dramatically, due to increased use of air-conditioning,
better medical care, and increased public awareness of heat stress’s
effects. Robert Davis, associate professor of environmental sciences at
the University of Virginia, and colleagues studied heat-related mortality
(death rates) in 28 major U.S. cities from 1964 though 1998. He found
that the heat-related death rate, 41 per million people a year in the
1960s and 1970s, declined to 10.4 per million during the 1990s (Davis
et al., 2003).
Cities tend to emit and absorb heat more quickly than surrounding
countryside due to a number of reasons having little to do with the basic
atmospheric physics of global warming. The larger a city and the more
dense its degree of urbanization, the greater the warming. The “urban
heat-island effect” was first identified by a meteorologist, Luke Howard,
in 1818. Extra heat is produced in urban areas by the city’s many sources
of waste heat, from building heating and air-conditioning, as well as from

motor vehicles, among other sources. Heating also increases when open
fields and forests become streets, sidewalks, parking lots, and buildings.
The dark colors of city structures, especially asphalt streets and parking
lots which make up as much as 30 percent of many urban surfaces have
a very low albedo, so most of the sun’s heat energy is absorbed, not
reflected.
Cities also warm more rapidly than surrounding countryside because
they are usually drier and have less surface water and fewer green plants
(both of which cool the air through evaporation) than most rural areas.
Furthermore, as new housing and businesses spread from urban areas,
some of the cities’ urban heat follows with them, spreading in widening
suburban circles. In Japan, suburban areas near Tokyo have experienced
temperature rises of between of 2◦ C and 3◦ C in 10 years. In a compact
urban area such as Manhattan Island, the total heat generated by the
city can add quite substantially to solar radiation. By one estimate, the
heat energy generated by motor vehicles and space heat on Manhattan
during an average winter day sometimes exceeds that of incoming solar
radiation (Weiner, 1990, 262).
Cities in the United States have 10 more hot nights a year than 40
years ago, Cornell University climate researchers have found. While
summers are heating up in urban areas, in rural areas, temperatures
have remained more constant, said Arthur DeGaetano, associate profes-
sor of earth and atmospheric sciences there. “What surprised me was
the difference in the extreme temperature trends between rural and
urban areas,” said DeGaetano. “I expected maybe a 25 percent increase
for the urban areas compared to the rural ones. I didn’t expect a 300
percent increase across the United States” (Hot Times, 2002). Rural
areas experienced an average increase of only three warm nights a year
in the same period, according to this study. “This means that cities and
the suburbs may be contributing greatly to their own heat problems,”
DeGaetano said, “Greenhouse gases could be a factor, but not the one
and only cause. There is natural climate variability, and you tend to see
higher temperatures during periods of drought” (Hot Times, 2002).
DeGaetano and colleagues classified a very warm night as a minimum
of 70◦ F in the Eastern, Southern, and Midwestern United States. In the
southwestern deserts, he said, a low of 80◦ was considered a warm night.
Since the beginning of the twentieth century, almost three-quarters of
the climate-reporting stations examined in the study have shown an
increase in the number of very warm nights, according to the study
(Hot Times, 2002).
Laurence S. Kalkstein has estimated that a doubling of the carbon

dioxide level in the atmosphere could increase heat-related mortality
(deaths) to seven times the present levels if acclimatization is not fac-
tored in—that is, if people do not increase use of air-conditioning and
other ways to adapt. With acclimatization (human adaptation to higher
temperatures), the estimated increase in heat wave mortality estimated
by Kalkstein is four times the present rate (Kalkstein, 1993, 1397). Kalk-
stein observed that each urban area had its own “temperature thresh-
old,” at which the death rate from heat prostration rose rapidly. Seat-
tle, for example, has a lower threshold than Dallas. “Mortality rates in
warmer cities seemed to be less affected no matter how high the temper-
ature rose,” Kalkstein wrote (Kalkstein, 1993, 1398). He suggested that
residents of urban areas in poor countries would find adaptation more
difficult because of limited access to air-conditioning.
A region need not be poor to suffer a stunning degree of mortality
from heat. One analysis put Europe’s death toll at 35,000 or more during
the scorching summer of 2003, which is described at the beginning of
Chapter 2. The one common thread in most of these deaths was lack
of access to air-conditioning, which earlier had not been considered
necessary in much of Europe.
HEALTH BENEFITS FROM WARMING?
Pim Martens has written that while the overall impact of global warm-
ing on human health is expected to be markedly negative, human be-
ings may experience a few positive outcomes. Some diseases that thrive
in cold weather (such as influenza) may find their ranges and effects
reduced in a warmer world. The elderly might die less frequently of car-
diovascular and pulmonary ailments (heart diseases) that peak during
cold weather. “Whether the milder winters could offset the mortality
during the summer heat waves is one of the questions that demands
further research,” Martens wrote (Martens, 1999, 535).
Countering the views of Epstein and others, some health researchers
contend that global warming will do little to increase incidence of
tropical diseases. “For mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue, yellow
fever, and malaria, the assumption that warming will foster the spread
of the vector is simplistic,” contended Bob Zimmerman, an entomolo-
gist with the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Zimmerman
pointed out that in the Amazon basin, more than 20 species of Anophe-
les mosquitoes can transmit malaria, and each is adapted to a different
habitat. He said, “All of these are going to be impacted by rainfall,
temperature, and humidity in different ways. There could actually be
decreases in malaria in certain regions, depending on what happens”

(Taubes, 1997). Virologist Barry Beaty of Colorado State University in
Fort Collins, Colorado, agreed with Zimmerman. “You don’t have to be a
rocket scientist to say we’ve got a problem,” he says. “But global warming
is not the current problem. It is a collapse in public-health measures,
an increase in drug resistance in parasites, and an increase in pesticide
resistance in vector populations. Mosquitoes and parasites are efficiently
exploiting these problems” (Taubes, 1997).
While many health experts maintain that tropical diseases will spread
with rising temperatures, a minority (one of whom is Bjorn Lom-
borg, the Danish “skeptical environmentalist”) points to the fact that
malaria once was endemic in Europe and the United States as re-
cently as the nineteenth century, before medications and public health
measures eradicated it. Therefore, asserts Lomborg, the spread of
malaria is not a climatic issue but a matter of public health (Lomborg,
2007).
Countering the majority view that a warmer world will spread malaria,
David J. Rogers and Sarah E. Randolph, using their own models, wrote
in Science that even extreme rises in temperature would not spread the
disease. They argued that the spread of malaria was too poorly under-
stood to base a forecast several decades into the future on temperature
as a singular variable. For example, the “Dengie Marshes” of Essex, in
England, a breeding ground for malaria-carrying mosquitoes in the sev-
enteenth century, have dried up, making an increase in temperatures
not a factor vis-à-vis malaria’s spread. Malaria is not a new disease in
the temperate zones. It was common in the Roman Empire. A British
invasion of Holland in 1806 failed to drive out French troops because
large numbers of the British soldiers became ill with malaria. Malaria
was a public health problem in most of the Eastern United States during
warm, humid summers before medications were developed for it about
a century ago.
Paul Reiter, a dengue fever expert with the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention’s Puerto Rico office, argued against the relative impor-
tance of climate in human disease by pointing to periods in the past
during which malaria and other tropical diseases were more common
than today in cooler regions. He argued that the spread of malaria was
more closely linked to deforestation, agricultural practices, human mi-
gration, poor public health services, civil war, strife, and natural disasters.
“Claims that malaria resurgence is due to climate change ignore these
realities and disregard history,” he wrote in an article about malaria’s
spread through England during the Little Ice Age, which began about
1450 and lasted for several hundred years, during a climate that was
cooler than today’s (McFarling, 2002, A-7).
S. I. Hay and colleagues investigated long-term meteorological trends
in four high altitude sites in East Africa where increases in malaria had
been reported during the past two decades. “Here we show that tem-
perature, rainfall, vapor pressure, and the number of months suitable
for Plasmodium. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly
during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resur-
gence.” Therefore, they find that associations between resurgence of
malaria and climate change at high altitudes in these areas “are overly
simplistic” (Hay et al., 2002, 905).
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6
Solutions
CHANGING THE WAYS WE USE ENERGY

Having surveyed evidence of worldwide warming, along with the sci-
ence supporting it and political controversy surrounding it, one may ask
what we can do to avoid damaging climate change. Chances of avoiding
serious consequences of climate change revolve around humankind’s
ability to create political and technological solutions. One will not work
without the other. Technological changes range from the very basic
(such as mileage improvements on existing gasoline-burning automo-
biles, changes in building codes, and painting building roofs white) to
the exotic, including the invention of microorganisms that eat carbon
dioxide and the generation of microwaves from the moon. In between
are the solutions that will fundamentally change the ways in which we
use energy, moving from fossil fuels to renewable, nonpolluting sources
such as solar and wind power. By the end of this century, the internal
combustion engine may be as much of an antique as a horse buggy is
today.
By 2007, the political consensus was changing in the United States with
regard to solving the problem. In April 2007, ConocoPhillips became the
first major U.S. oil company to call for a federal carbon dioxide emissions
cap. Many other companies did the same, as the U.S. Congress, with a
new Democratic majority, began to seriously consider legislation along
this line.
S. Pacala and R. Socolow, writing in Science, have asserted that, us-
ing existing technology, “[h]umanity already possesses the fundamental
scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and
climate problem for the next half-century” (Pacala and Socolow, 2004,
968). By “solve,” they mean that the tools are at hand to meet global
energy needs without doubling preindustrial levels of carbon dioxide.

Their “stabilization strategy” involves intense attention to improved au-
tomotive fuel economy, reduced reliance on cars, more efficient build-
ing construction, improved power plant efficiency, substitution of nat-
ural gas for coal, storage of carbon captured in power plants as well
as hydrogen and synthetic fuel plants, more use of nuclear power, de-
velopment of wind and photovoltaic (solar) energy sources, creation
of hydrogen from renewable sources, and more intense use of biofuels
such as ethanol. The strategy also advocates reductions in deforestation
and aggressive management of agricultural soils through such measures
as conservation tillage—drilling seeds into soil without plowing (Pacala
and Socolow, 2004, 969–971).
A MORATORIUM ON COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY
WITHOUT SEQUESTRATION
On a societywide scale, James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, proposed a number of policy-level solutions
to the U.S. House of Representatives on March 19, 2007. First, and
most important, Hansen recommended a ban on construction of new
coal-fired power plants until technology for carbon dioxide capture and
sequestration (that prevents the plants’ carbon dioxide from reaching
Greenpeace “Save the Climate” balloon ( Jeff Dixon)

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James E. Hansen visiting his high school at

Denison, Iowa, May, 2007 (Patricia E. Keiffer)
the air) is available. In other words, the greenhouse gases that would
enter the atmosphere from burning coal to generate electricity must be
directed into the earth, below the ocean, or destroyed.
About a quarter of power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions will remain
in the air more than 500 years, long after new technology is refined and
deployed. As a result, Hansen expects that all power plants without
adequate sequestration will be obsolete and slated for closure (or up-
dated with new technology) before mid-century (Hansen, March 19,
2007).
Hansen believes that
[c]oal will determine whether we continue to increase climate change or slow

the human impact. Increased fossil fuel CO2 in the air today, compared to the
pre-industrial atmosphere, is due 50% to coal, 35% to oil and 15% to gas. As
oil resources peak, coal will determine future CO2 levels. Recently, after giving
a high school commencement talk in my hometown, Denison, Iowa, I drove
from Denison to Dunlap, where my parents are buried. For most of 20 miles
there were trains parked, engine to caboose, half of the cars being filled with
coal. If we cannot stop the building of more coal-fired power plants, those coal
trains will be death trains—no less gruesome than if they were boxcars headed
to crematoria, loaded with uncountable irreplaceable species. (Hansen, July
23, 2007)
By mid-2007, several new coal-powered plants were being canceled or

postponed across the United States, as Hansen’s advice began to sink in.
By that time, 645 coal-fired plants were producing about half the coun-
try’s electricity. As recently as May 2007, more than 150 new ones had
been planned to meet electricity demand that was rising at an annual-
ized rate of 2.7 percent. A private equity deal worth $32 billion involving
TXU Corp. trimmed 8 of 11 planned coal plants, as similar plants were
scuttled in Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, and other states. Montana
and Iowa were debating whether to scrap plans for coal-fired power
plants.
About two dozen coal plants have been canceled since early 2006,
according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory in Pittsburg,
an agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. Citibank downgraded
the stocks of coal-mining companies in mid-July, saying, “[P]rophesies
of a new wave of coal-fired generation have vaporized” (Smith, 2007,
A-1). Climate change concerns are often cited when coal plants are
canceled, especially in Florida, where rising sea levels from melting
ice in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers are already eroding
coastlines. Florida’s Public Service Commission is now legally required
to give preference to alternative energy projects over any new generation
of electricity from fossil fuels. The states of Washington and California
have been moving toward similar requirements. Xcel Energy and Public
Service of Colorado were allowed to go ahead with a 750-megawatt coal-
fired power plant only after they agreed to obtain 775 megawatts of wind
power.
In the meantime, however, China was adding coal-fired power at a
record rate to satisfy the needs of its growing economy. Any worldwide
moratorium would have to include China, which gets the vast majority
of its power from “dirty” (low-energy, high-pollution) coal. Nine of the
ten cities with the worst air pollution are in China, and most of it comes
from coal-fired power plants.
WIND POWER CAPACITY SURGES

By the early twenty-first century, wind power was becoming compet-
itive in cost with electricity generated by fossil fuels, as its use surged.
While wind power still was a tiny fraction of energy generated in the
United States, some areas of Europe (Denmark, as well as parts of
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Germany and Spain) were using it as a major source. Advances in wind

turbine technology adapted from the aerospace industry have reduced
the cost of wind power from 38 cents per kilowatt-hour (during the
early 1980s) to 3 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. This rate is competitive
with costs of power generation from fossil fuels, but costs vary according
to site. Major corporations, including Shell International, have been
moving into wind power. By 2002, Spain generated 4,830 megawatts of
wind power. Spain’s industrial state of Navarra, which generated no wind
power in 1996, by 2002 was generating 25 percent of its electricity that
way.
With its wind turbines producing electricity at 4 to 5 cents per kilowatt-
hour, Denmark by 2004 was generating 20 percent of its electricity from
wind power. In the German state of Schleswig-Holstein, the wind en-
ergy industry has become the second-largest employer after tourism.
More than 30,000 wind-power-related jobs were created in Germany by
2001, as private firms building rotors, towers, transfer stations, and ever
more powerful turbines have sprung up across wind-rich coastal states
(Williams, 2001, A-1).
Wind Power was developing rapidly in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Power-
generating capacity from wind jumped 27 percent in the United States
during 2006, and was expected to do the same in 2007 (Harden, 2007,
A-3). By 2007, wind power had become so popular that a shortage of
parts was causing installations to fall behind demand. A new phrase
in the English language, “wind-rich” describes an area with a relatively
steady, unimpeded access to turbine-ready breezes.
Germany, the world leader, where the government pays above-market
rates for all electricity produced by wind power, added 12 percent to its
generating capacity between 2005 and 2006, increasing it from 18,415
megawatts to 20,622, or 4.2 percent of the country’s electricity gen-
eration. Spain increased its capacity from 10,028 megawatts to 11,615
megawatts, 8 percent of national electric-power-generating capacity. The
United States added 26.8 percent to its wind-generating capacity in the
same year (from 9,149 megawatts to 11,603 megawatts), the third in
the world, but only a quarter of 1 percent of the total capacity. In tiny
Denmark, with 3,136 megawatts, the government eliminated most wind
power subsidies. Compared to their populations, India and China’s wind
power capacity is miniscule, but the capacity increased 41.5 percent in
India (from 4,430 megawatts to 6,270 megawatts) and 106 percent in
China (from 1,260 megawatts to 2,604 megawatts) (Johnson, 2007, A-8).
By 2007, 60 percent of the electricity of Spain’s tiny industrial state of
Navarra was coming from renewable sources (mainly wind, with some
solar), with plans to raise the proportion to 75 percent by 2010. At the

end of 2006, national wind power resources stood at: Germany 20,652
megawatts, Spain 11,614 megawatts, the United States 11,575 megawatts,
India 6,228 megawatts, and Denmark 3,101 megawatts (Fairless, 2007,
1048).
Wind capacity in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, where it
can be combined with hydroelectric, has been rising very rapidly, from
only 25 megawatts in 1998 to a projected 3,800 megawatts by 2009. Dur-
ing 2006 alone, Washington State added 428 megawatts of wind power,
trailing only Texas in new installations. One megawatt of wind power can
supply the needs of 225 to 300 homes, on average, each day (Harden,
2007, A-3). Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind
Energy Association, a trade group, said the electrical grid in the North-
west is uniquely suited to wind power because of the dominance of
hydroelectricity and also because of relatively reliable wind, progressive
utility companies, and new state laws demanding renewable energy that
require utilities, over time, to generate 15 to 25 percent of their energy
from renewable sources (Harden, 2007, A-3).
THE NEW SOLAR POWER
Solar power has advanced significantly since the days of inefficient
photovoltaics. In California, solar power is being built into roof tiles,
and talk is that nanotechnology will make any surface on which the
sun shines a source of power—windows, for example. Experiments have
been undertaken with a new form of solar energy—Concentrating Solar
Power (CSP). In our lifetimes, as homes feed power into the electrical
grid, electric meters will run backward, feeding power into the electrical
grid from individual homes and businesses, using carbon-based fuels
only as backup.
A 380-foot concrete tower surrounded by 600 huge mirrors near
Seville, Spain, is part of a new CSP plant that produces solar power
that is commercially viable on a large scale. In this case, the power sta-
tion, constructed by Abengoa S.A., can supply about 6,000 homes. Spain
and other European countries are subsidizing CSP and other solar tech-
nologies to move away from fossil fuels. According to the consulting firm
Emerging Energy Research, 45 CSP projects were in planning around
the world by 2007, including some in the United States. The Span-
ish government has set a goal of 500 megawatts of solar power by the
year 2010. Spain is presently subsidizing CSP development, requiring
utility companies to buy their power at above-market rates. Abengoa
plans to eventually build enough CSP capacity to supply all of Seville,
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15 megawatt solar photovoltaic array at Nellis Air Force Base,

Nevada, completed December 2007 (U.S. Air Force, http://www.nellis.
af.mil)
about 180,000 homes. In the United States, Arizona Power was conduct-
ing a test of CSP in 2007.
New CSP technology is much more powerful than photovoltaic cells.
A rooftop photovoltaic complex might power a small office building,
while the complex near Seville can generate 11 megawatts, enough elec-
tricity for a small town. The CSP mirrors track the sun and concentrate
its power on single points, generating steam that runs turbines to gener-
ate power. Some of the heat is also stored in oil or molten salt to run the
turbine after sunset or when clouds block the sun. Such new technolo-
gies may increase the potential of solar power and bring down its cost,
which is now 12 to 15 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared to an average
of 4 cents for coal-fired energy.
In California by 2007 many new homes were being built with solar cells
embedded in their roof tiles. T. J. Rodgers, an entrepreneur, underwrote
the solar cells’ production. The PowerLight Corporation, based near San
Francisco, bought the cells from Mr. Rodgers’s company, the SunPower
Corporation, and turned them into roof tiles. The tiles ended up on
houses built by Grupe Homes, based in Stockton, because state utility
regulators established a $5,500 state-financed rebate for builders who
installed similar systems, which cost $20,000. Under a law that took effect
in 2006, the U.S. federal government provides home buyers a $2,000 tax
credit; state law guarantees lower electric bills as utilities buy back power
homeowners do not need (Barringer, 2006). By the end of 2007, Nellis
Air Force Base in Nevada was poised to open what its publicists called
the largest solar power complex in the United States.
CHANGES IN PERSONAL TRANSPORT
Cars are fast and easy but they also fill the atmosphere with green-
house gases and contribute to obesity from lack of exercise. Cars are an
addiction: they shape our cities to meet their needs. Most urban areas in
the United States have been shaped by the automobile to such a degree
that, for most people, any other transportation option is unavailable, un-
appealing, or impossible. To combat global warming, we will eventually
have to reshape our cities. The ultimate solution is to work at home (that
cuts commute time and energy consumption to zero), a solution that is
becoming more appealing. Many book publishers, for example, now use
virtual networks with people across the country, many of whom work at
home, linked by digital technology. The next best option is to live close
enough to the office to sharply reduce or eliminate one’s commuting
carbon footprint.
We also need to reshape the automobile, which is presently a monu-
ment to energy inefficiency. Only 13 percent of a car’s energy reaches
the wheels, and only half of that actually propels the car. The rest is lost
to idling, waste heat, vibration, and such things as air conditioning. At
least 6 percent converts to brake heating when a car stops, so less than 1
percent of the energy the car consumes ends up propelling the driver.
Amory Lovins recommends making cars much lighter, as well as devel-
oping hydrogen fuel cells. He also suggests stripping the oil industry of
subsidies that make gasoline cheaper than bottled water (Lovins, 2005,
74, 76, 82–83).
In the short run, mileage standards will be raised for gasoline-powered
cars, forcing them to become more efficient. Europe by 2007 was mea-
suring cars’ efficiency not in miles per gallon of gasoline but in grams
of carbon dioxide released per kilometer. Ethanol and other biofuels
may help somewhat, although they are still fossil fuels. They are 15 to
20 percent more efficient than gasoline. Hydrogen fuel will be a viable
option only when it is available from renewable sources. Hydrogen must
be manufactured, and these days it is usually done with fossil fuels. The
net greenhouse gas savings is zero. It’s better to take a bus, walk, or, if
you can, use a bicycle.
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Working on the Railroad: Transport
of the Future
Most histories of transportation have air travel replacing railroads for all but
heavy freight. However, with mounting concern regarding carbon footprints
and the decay of the U.S. commercial aviation system (which is prone to
delays, weather problems, security paralysis, and other problems), punctual
European trains look better every day. One can walk onto a train a few
minutes before the start of a trip. In Europe, they are clean, fast, and
attended by courteous staff. Remodeled cars include trays for desktops,
rooms for small meetings, and Wi-Fi access. The new TGV train leaves Paris at
the speed of a commercial airliner on takeoff—180 miles per hour. Europe’s
fast trains benefit from a network of “dedicated track,” 2,912 miles that allow
no freight or slower trains. China has built a magnetic levitation shuttle
between the Pudong airport and downtown Shanghai that accelerates to
240 miles an hour during an 8-minute trip. Plans call for a similar line to
open between Beijing and Shanghai in 2010 (Finney, 2007, 16). Japan has
long used 180-miles-per-hour “bullet trains” between Tokyo and Osaka.
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Bikes in the New Urban Utopia
Drivers are free to buy an SUV in Denmark, but the bill includes a registra-
tion tax up to 180 percent of the purchase price. Denmark’s taxation system
has become an environmental exclamation point. Imagine, for example,
paying more than $80,000 in taxes (as well as $6 a gallon for gasoline)
to buy and drive a Hummer H2—and pesky bicyclists may ridicule your
elegantly pimped ride as an environmental atrocity.
The automobile’s urban territory has been shrinking in European cities.
A growing web of pedestrian malls allows tens of thousands of people to
traverse downtown Stockholm on foot every day—down a gentle hill, north-
west to southeast, along Drottinggatan, past the Riksdag (Parliament) and
the King’s Palace, merging with Vasterlanggaten, into the Old Town—for
more than 2 miles. More and more streets across the city are gradually being
placed off-limits to motor traffic (Johansen, 2007, 23).
Bicycles have become privileged personal urban transport. To sample
bicycle gridlock, come to Copenhagen, which has deployed 2,000 bikes
around the city for free use. The mayor, Klaus Bondam, commutes by bicy-
cle. Helmets are not required, despite the occasional bout of two-wheeler
road rage as bicyclists clip each other on crowded streets. People ride bikes
while pregnant, drinking coffee, smoking, and in rain or shine, using a wide
array of baskets to carry groceries and briefcases.
The Copenhagen airport has parking spaces for bicycles. On weekends,

more than half the admissions to the emergency room of Frederiksberg
Hospital are drunken cyclists (who tend to run into poles). On a more
sober note, more than a third of Copenhagen residents ride bikes to work
(40 percent do so in Amsterdam), in a conscious assault on the “car culture”
(Keates, 2007, W-10) to personally reduce greenhouse gas emissions. New
bike-parking facilities are planned at Amsterdam’s main train station that
will house up to 10,000 machines. Officials from some U.S. cities, as well
as from bigger cities in Europe (London and Munich), have been studying
Amsterdam and Copenhagen. Bicycles also account for one-eighth of urban
travel in Sweden, where Stockholm is laced with many well-used bicycle paths
that complement its growing web of pedestrian-only malls.
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AVIATION: THE MOST CARBON-INEFFICIENT MODE OF TRAVEL
The most carbon-inefficient mode of transport is aviation, which re-
quires three times as much fuel per passenger mile as a small car with
one occupant. A great deal of jet fuel is required to take passengers
to high altitudes and keep them there at speeds of up to 600 miles an
hour. While wind and solar power are good for generating electricity,
nothing but fossil fuels provide the thrust necessary to keep a jet aircraft
aloft. Clearly, any serious solution to global warming is going to require
a serious examination of air travel.
A third of the world’s commercial aviation is flown in the United
States. Aviation mileage per person in the United States increased 400
percent from 1970 to 2006 (Hillman and Fawcett, 2007, 55). The United
Kingdom has become the world’s largest airport hub. One-fifth of the
world’s international airline passengers fly to or from an airport in the
United Kingdom. The numbers have risen fivefold in the past 30 years,
and the government envisages that they will more than double by 2030,
to 476 million a year (Monbiot, 2006).
Flight traffic is exploding in England; a third runway has been planned
for London’s Heathrow international airport, with similar extensions
at London’s Stansted, Birmingham, Edinburgh, and Glasgow airports.
Twelve other airports have already announced expansion plans. Accord-
ing to the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee, the
growth the government foresees will require the equivalent of another
Heathrow-sized airport every 5 years (Monbiot, 2006).
“As far as climate change is concerned,” wrote George Monbiot in the
London Guardian,
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[t]his is an utter, unparalleled disaster. It’s not just that aviation represents
the world’s fastest-growing source of carbon-dioxide emissions. The burning
of aircraft fuel has a “radiative forcing ratio” of around 2.7. What this means
is that the total warming effect of aircraft emissions is 2.7 times as great as
the effect of the carbon dioxide alone. The water vapor they produce forms
ice crystals in the upper troposphere (vapor trails and cirrus clouds) that trap
the earth’s heat. According to calculations by the Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, if you added the two effects together (it urges some caution
as they are not directly comparable), aviation’s emissions alone would exceed
the government’s target for the country’s entire output of greenhouse gases
in 2050 by around 134 per cent. (Monbiot, 2006)
The government excludes international aircraft emissions from the tar-

get. “In researching my book about how we might achieve a 90 per cent
cut in carbon emissions by 2030,” wrote Monbiot, “I have been discover-
ing, greatly to my surprise, that every other source of global warming can
be reduced or replaced to that degree without a serious reduction in our
freedoms. But there is no means of sustaining long-distance, high-speed
travel” (Monbiot, 2006).
According to the International Air Transport Association, jet engines
by 2006 were 40 percent more fuel-efficient than they were in the 1960s.
Future efficiency gains may be small, however, due to the mature nature
of jet engine technology. With commercial aviation mileage expected to
double by 2050, the search is on for solutions to an air transport system
in which one airplane flying from New York City to Stockholm emits as
much carbon dioxide as an automobile commuter in 50 years (Daviss,
2007, 33). Various systems have been tried and abandoned that might
make the aerodynamics of jet aircraft more efficient. Usually, systems
meant to improve laminar flow do not pay for themselves over the life
of an aircraft.
Richard Branson, owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., in September
2006 revealed plans to invest $3 billion to develop ecologically friendly
plant-based jet fuel. At present, the use of hydrogen fuel or ethanol in
place of the usual kerosene jet fuel faces formidable problems. Hydro-
gen fuel provides only 25 percent as much energy per volume as jet fuel,
meaning that a hydrogen-powered aircraft would need huge fuel tanks
and have to fly with a heavier load, reducing mileage. Because of the
volume, fuel could not be carried in the wings but in the body of the
aircraft, increasing drag. Hydrogen would produce no carbon dioxide,
but its output of water vapor at high altitudes would increase the size
of contrails (the exhaust of airplanes), which aggravate global warming.
Plant-based fuel weighs two-thirds more by volume than kerosene for

the same amount of thrust. It also freezes easily at high altitudes (Daviss,
2007, 35).
One problem with making an airline fleet more efficient is the long
life of its vehicles. The Boeing 747, for example, is still flying 36 years af-
ter it was introduced. The Tyndall Centre predicts that the Airbus A380,
new in 2006, will be flying (in slightly modified form) in 2070. “Switch-
ing to more efficient models,” wrote Monbiot, “would mean scrapping
the existing fleet” (Monbiot, 2006).
Airline projections that air traffic will double within two decades have
compelled atmospheric scientists to ask whether growing air traffic is
altering the chemistry of the stratosphere through which jets travel. The
combustion of jet fuel releases into the atmosphere several chemicals
that affect the balance of greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, water vapor,
nitrous oxides, sulfur oxides, and particulate matter (soot). Most work
has concentrated on aircraft engines’ nitrous oxide production and its
relation to the ozone level of the atmosphere. Scientific scrutiny of jet
aircraft’s role in global warming is “considerably poorer than that of
ozone chemical processes. (Friedl, 1999, 58).
Tim O’Riordan, of the Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environ-
mental Research at the University of East Anglia, said, “Everyone who
uses a car or flies regularly should consider what positives they can put
back into the environment by way of compensation. Maybe, for example,
you already cycle to work, or take public transport, as a chosen alterna-
tive to driving. The next time you fly somewhere, either by choice or
for business, the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide production from
the plane you use will cancel out a year of contributions from cycling”
(Urquhart and Gilchrist, 2002, 9).
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Eating Low on the Food Chain
Walking through an ordinary American supermarket can be a tour of the
world, and a universe of food options. Many of them are very carbon-
intensive. The raising of beef, for example, requires at least 10 times the
energy inputs of the vegetable crops we could use as protein instead. What,
however, if our veggies come from Chile, Nicaragua, and New Zealand out
of season? When figuring the carbon footprint of food, the distance it must
come to get to your plate is an important factor. Food sold in U.S. grocery
stores travels an average of 1,500 miles to reach consumers, according to
David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agricultural science at Cornell
University. The food industry burns almost one-fifth of all the petroleum
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consumed in the United States, about as much as automobiles, according

to Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma (Knoblauch, 2007, 46).
The food in today’s U.S. supermarket requires 6 calories of energy to
produce 1 calorie of food. Much of this is in transport, but also in energy-
intensive cultivation of factory farms, as well as many people’s preference for
energy-intensive types of food, such as meats, most notably beef (Hillman
and Fawcett, 2007, 60).
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ETHANOL: THE RIGHT WAY, AND THE WRONG WAY
Greenhouse gas emissions from ethanol (biofuel) are lower than for
gasoline, but not by much. The difference varies by the source; for corn-
based ethanol, it is usually 10 to 20 percent. Regardless, by 2007, driven
by a 51-cent-a-gallon federal subsidy, ethanol fever had struck Capitol
Hill. One bill under consideration required the use of biofuels (partially
corn-based, with others from other plants) to climb to 36 billion gallons
by 2022, more than six times the capacity of the nation’s 115 ethanol
refineries that were presently operating. “There’s almost a gold rush in
this sector at the moment,” said Philip R. Sharp, who served in the House
of Representatives for 20 years and in 2007 was a lobbyist as president of
Resources for the Future (Mufson, 2007, D-1).
Sugarcane, used to produce ethanol in Brazil, is a much better source
of energy than corn, the primary source in the United States. Re-
searchers at the University of Minnesota have estimated that converting
the entire U.S. corn crop to ethanol would replace only one-eighth of
U.S. gasoline consumption. In addition, corn must be grown and trans-
ported, after which ethanol must be manufactured. Replacing a gallon
of gasoline with a gallon of ethanol does not save a gallon of gasoline
because most of the energy that goes into raising and transporting of
corn comes from fossil fuels. The real savings is more like a quarter of
a gallon—so, in reality, the United States could consume its entire na-
tional corn crop and replace only 3 percent of its gasoline usage. With
all our corn in gas tanks, what would we eat? As early as January 2007,
rising prices for corn were igniting demonstrations by tens of thousands
of people in Mexico City, where the price of tortillas hit record highs
as President George W. Bush touted corn ethanol in his State of the
Union message. The price of corn shot up from $1.90 to $5.00 a bushel
between 2006 and 2008.
As he promoted ethanol in his 2006 State of the Union message,
President George W. Bush ignored some of its problems. Many farm-
ers also cheered the “ethanol express,” with its 51-cent-a-gallon federal
subsidy, without much thought to the problems it caused. Prices for

farmland in Nebraska soared 15 percent in 1 year, even as some farmers
expressed concerns regarding ethanol’s impact, especially its require-
ments for scarce water. Other concerns include truck traffic in rural
areas and air pollution with a sticky-sweet smell that resembles that of
a barroom floor after a busy Saturday night (Barrett, 2007, A-1). Res-
idents in Webster County, Missouri, sued to stop construction of an
ethanol plant on grounds that it would use more water than all of the
county’s 33,000 residents combined. By March 2007, the United States
had 114 ethanol plants in operation, 80 under construction, and several
dozen in planning stages (Barrett, 2007, A-8).
Rising costs of farm goods, provoked partially by demand for biofu-
els (including corn, sugarcane, and palm oil, among others), has been
pushing up food prices around the world. This rise in prices is caus-
ing distress among many poorer people in China, India, and other
nations. If rising food prices are sustained, social unrest could result.
Rises in prices for basic foods also drives up costs for other things, such
as beef, eggs, and soft drinks. Corn, for example, is used to make corn
syrup and feed livestock, as well as cereal and other more obvious prod-
ucts. By some estimates, about 30 percent of the U.S. grain harvest will
go to ethanol by 2008, double the proportion in 2006 (Barta, 2007,
A-1).
The competition for food was global in scope, with grain stocks world-
wide at a 30-year low in 2007. China had only a 2- to 3-month grain supply
in storage as of early 2007. In Hungary, food price inflation was running
at 13 percent by March 2007, versus 3 percent in 2005; in China, food
prices were rising at 6 percent in 2007, versus 2 percent a year earlier. In
the United States, food price inflation was annualized at 3.1 percent at
the same time, up from 2.1 percent in 2005. Food prices rose 15 percent
a year in Turkey during 2007, having risen fivefold in a year and a half
(Barta, 2007, A-9). A night at the movies even got pricier, as the price of
popcorn rose 40 percent between 2006 and 2007.
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The Indy 500 Runs on Ethanol
For the first time, on May 27, 2007, all cars competing in the Indianapolis
500-mile auto race, which attain speeds of 220 miles an hour, used corn-
based ethanol as fuel. Racing champion Bobby Rahal had announced the
change earlier in May, calling it “a tribute to the spirit of American ingenuity
and innovation.” “The use of 100 percent fuel-grade ethanol makes the
Indy Car Series the first in motor sports anywhere in the world to embrace a
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renewable and environmentally friendly fuel source,” he said at the National

Press Club on May 4 (Indy 500, 2007).
In 2006, the race, during which some cars operate at 675 horsepower, was
run on an ethanol–methanol mix. Pure methanol had been the preferred
fuel at the race for four decades. After five auto races in 2007 with no signs
of inferior engine performance, drivers have accepted ethanol, Griffin said.
“At the end of the day, they see that we are doing something good for the
environment without losing anything” (Indy 500, 2007).
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HYDROGEN FUEL-CELLED TRANSPORT: NO FREE LUNCH
Political correctness in the automobile industry has become associ-
ated with development of hydrogen fuel cells, especially after Presi-
dent George W. Bush used his State of the Union Address in January
2003 to propose $1.2 billion in research funding to develop hydro-
gen fuel technologies. With those funds, Bush said that America could
lead the world in developing clean, hydrogen-powered automobiles. Ice-
land has, meanwhile, made plans to become the world’s first hydrogen
economy (utilizing its geothermal resources). Reykjavik’s bus fleet has
been retrofitted with fuel cell engines, and hydrogen fuelling stations
have opened.
Jeremy Rifkin, a liberal social critic and author, has written a book
published during September 2002 titled The Hydrogen Economy: The Cre-
ation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth.
Rifkin believes that cheap hydrogen could make the twenty-first cen-
tury more democratic and decentralized, much the way oil transformed
the nineteenth and twentieth centuries by fueling the rise of powerful
corporations and nation-states. With hydrogen, writes Rifkin, “[e]very
human being on Earth could be ‘empowered’” (Coy, 2002, 83).
As much as it has been promoted as pollution-free, hydrogen fuel is
no free climatic lunch. Hydrogen, unlike oil or coal, does not exist in
nature in a combustible form. Hydrogen is usually bonded with other
chemical elements, and stripping them away to produce the pure hy-
drogen necessary to power a fuel cell requires large amounts of energy.
Unless an alternative source (such as Iceland’s geothermal resource) is
available, hydrogen fuel is usually produced from fossil fuels. Extraction
of hydrogen from water by electrolysis and compression of the hydro-
gen to fit inside a tank that can be used in an automobile requires a
great deal of electricity. Until electricity is routinely produced with solar,
wind, and other renewable sources, the hydrogen car will require energy
from conventional sources, including fossil fuels. Today, 97 percent of
the hydrogen produced in the United States comes from processes that
involve the burning of fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas, and coal.
Another problem with hydrogen fuel is storage, in both vehicles and
fueling stations. Hydrogen is flammable (far more prone to explode
than gasoline) and must be stored at high pressure (up to 10,000 pounds
per square inch). It is also far less dense than conventional fossil fuels
and so requires 50 times the storage space of gasoline. Liquid hydrogen
avoids these problems, but it must be stored at 400◦ F below zero, not
a practical solution for everyman’s car or every neighborhood’s fueling
station. Nevertheless, the U.S. Energy Department by 2007 was pouring
grant money ($170 million over 5 years) into developing a fleet of fuel
cell vehicles and fueling stations.
Paul M. Grant, writing in Nature, provided an illustration: “Let us as-
sume that hydrogen is obtained by ‘splitting’ water with electricity—
electrolysis. Although this isn’t the cheapest industrial approach
to ‘make’ hydrogen, it illustrates the tremendous production scale
involved—about 400 gigawatts of continuously available electric power
generation [would] have to be added to the grid, nearly doubling the
present U.S. national average power capacity.” That, calculated Grant,
would represent the power-generating capacity of 200 Hoover Dams
(Grant, 2003, 129–130). At $1,000 per kilowatt, the cost of such new
infrastructure would total about $400 billion. What about producing
these 400 gigawatts with renewable energy? Grant estimated that, “with
the wind blowing hardest, and the sun shining brightest,” wind power
generation would require a land area the size of New York State, or a
layout of state-of-the-art photovoltaic solar cells half the size of Denmark
(Grant, 2003, 130). Grant’s preferred solution to this problem is use of
energy generated by nuclear fission.
GENERATE YOUR OWN “GREEN” ELECTRIC POWER—AND SELL
YOUR SURPLUS TO THE POWER COMPANY
As of 2007, 40 of the 50 U.S. states had laws requiring “net metering,”
which provides the legal infrastructure for individual households to
generate power and, if they have a surplus, sell it to the power grid at
market rates, usually about 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. In areas with
good wind conditions, a household windmill (costing between $10,000
and $25,000 to install) can generate power at that cost. Solar power (at 25
to 35 cents per kilowatt-hour) is still too expensive to be profitable, but
CSP may change that. Technological improvements in solar technology
may also bring down the cost. Some farmers have been installing devices
that turn hog manure into methane gas, a double winner because the
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process not only produces energy, but also removes a greenhouse gas
from the atmosphere.
There is every reason to expect that nonfossil fuels will become more
economical in the future. Wind power, for example, had cost an average
of 80 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1980 and 10 cents in 1991. By 2006, it
was competitive with many fossil fuel sources at 3 to 4 cents per kilowatt-
hour at sites with the best wind conditions; other sites can range up to 15
to 29 cents per kilowatt-hour. Materials used in turbines have improved,
and they are now larger and more efficient—125 meters rotor diameter
as compared to 10 meters in the 1970s.
Solar power costs as much as $70,000 to $80,000 in 2007 to install a
10-kilowatt household system and would take 50 years to pay for itself
without tax subsidies. However, the federal government in the United
States (as well as other countries, notably Japan and Germany) grant tax
breaks for solar power that can lower its payback to about 10 years. The
Internal Revenue Service beginning in 2006 allowed a 30 percent tax
credit for solar projects. This is photovoltaic technology. CSP is poised to
lower the cost of solar power dramatically. CSP by 2007 was generating
power at 9 to 12 cents per kilowatt-hour before subsidies.
BIOMASS: VERY BASIC STUFF
Biomass fuel is very basic stuff. Usually cities burn organic garbage
and extract methane (some pig farms do the same with manure), but
as of 2007 it was the biggest source of alternative fuel in the United
States. Companies use biomass generation as part of their industrial
processes. Weyerhauser, for one, generates electricity with wood waste
combined with by-products from pulp mills that once were discarded as
useless. Such sources have been generating power for 5 to 10 cents per
kilowatt-hour.
The E3 Biofuels Mead LLC plant in Mead, Nebraska, feeds manure
from 30,000 cattle on an adjoining feedlot into an on-site facility that
provides fuel for an ethanol plant. The proprietors of this plant are not
shy about their role in protecting the environment and fighting global
warming. It’s name is “Genesis,” and it is touted as the first “closed
loop” ethanol plant in the world, utilizing its own fuel to reduce its in-
house carbon footprint to nearly zero, meanwhile producing 25 million
gallons of ethanol a year for sale. The plant also uses as fuel methane
emissions that would have gone into the atmosphere. With all of these
strategies, the Mead plant produces more than 15 times more fuel than
a gasoline refinery or a corn-ethanol plant, according to Dennis Langley,
E3’s chairman. “This is a revolutionary step forward,” Langley believes
(Hord, 2007, D-1). By 2008, however, the plant had filed for bankruptcy,
citing rising costs. Meanwhile, a project was underway at the National
Zoo in Washington, D.C., that could eventually convert animal waste
into fuel, Beard said.
GEOTHERMAL: ENERGY SAVINGS FROM THE EARTH
Geothermal could produce 10 percent of U.S. electricity by 2050,
according to a report by a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
nology. In 2007, geothermal was feasible at 6 to 10 cents a kilowatt-hour,
without subsidies; Harrison Elementary School in Omaha, among oth-
ers, is being remodeled to use it. This is one example of several, just in
one small part of Omaha.
Warm springs are not required for geothermal energy. Thermal con-
trast between earth and atmosphere is enough, especially in places such
as Omaha with large contrast in seasonal temperatures. The Earth’s
temperature is about 56◦ F the year round; by circulating water through
pipes above and below ground, as much as 70 percent can be saved on
heating and cooling costs. When air temperature is close to that of the
Earth, the need is minimal; the greater the contrast, the greater the
need, and the more energy is conserved.
The system uses underground pipes filled with fluid that pull heat
from buildings in the summer and release it into underground soil. In
winter, the pipes distribute heat in the building that has been gathered
under ground. The principle is the same as that used by traditional res-
idential heat pumps, but 30 to 50 percent more efficient. (This means
that it uses 30 to 50 percent less energy than a conventional furnace.)
The geothermal pumps use the ground, whereas the residential pumps
use the air. Nationwide, installation of geothermal pumps has been grow-
ing at double-digit rates, according to John Kelly, executive director of
the Geothermal Heat-pump Consortium in Washington, D.C. (Gaarder,
2007, A-2).
A CARBON TAX: CHARGING FOR CARBON PRODUCTION
National taxation systems are being changed in some countries,
mainly in Europe, to discourage production of greenhouse gases. French
President Jacques Chirac in 2007 demanded that the United States sign
both the Kyoto climate protocol and a future agreement that would take
effect when it expired in 2012. He warned that if the United States did
not sign the agreements, a carbon tax across Europe on imports from
nations that have not signed the Kyoto treaty could be enacted to force
compliance. “A carbon tax is inevitable,” Chirac said. “If it is European,
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and I believe it will be European, then it will all the same have a certain
influence because it means that all the countries that do not accept the
minimum obligations will be obliged to pay” (Bennhold, 2007).
In the meantime, voters in Boulder, Colorado, home of the state’s
largest university, late in November 2006 approved the United States’
first local carbon tax. The tax, based on electricity usage, took effect on
April 1, 2007; it adds $16 a year to an average homeowner’s electricity bill
and $46 for businesses. The tax is collected by Boulder’s main gas and
electric utility, Xcel Energy, an agent for Boulder’s Office of Environ-
mental Affairs. “The tax revenue will fund increased energy efficiency
in homes and buildings, switch to renewable energy and reduce vehi-
cle miles traveled,” the city’s environmental affairs manager, Jonathan
Koehn, said (Kelley, 2006). The Boulder environmental sustainability
coordinator, Sarah Van Pelt, said residents who used alternative sources
of electricity like wind power would receive a discount on the tax based
on the amount of the alternative power used. A total of 5,600 residents
and 210 businesses used wind power in 2006, Van Pelt said (Kelley, 2006).
Oregon in 2001 began to assess a 3 percent fee on electricity bills
by the state’s two largest investor-owned utilities. Revenue from this tax
is transferred to the Energy Trust of Oregon, a nonprofit organization,
rather than the state government. The trust distributes cash incentives to
businesses and residents for using alternative sources such as solar and
wind power, biomass energy, and structural improvements to improve
efficiency.
FARMING TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENTS

Rattan Lal, a professor of soil science at Ohio State University, has
asserted that the atmosphere’s load of carbon dioxide could be greatly
reduced through several relatively simple changes in farming technol-
ogy. Contributions of farming to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
have been increasing with rising populations. Carbon dioxide is added
to the atmosphere via plowing, so Lal believes that reducing the depth
of furrows would significantly reduce the amount of carbon dioxide
introduced into the atmosphere by agriculture.
During mid-2003, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) an-
nounced plans to give incentives to farmers for management practices
that keep carbon in the soil. For the first time, the USDA began to factor
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions into soil conservation programs
by giving priority to farmers who reduce emissions of carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxides. Such programs represented $3.9 billion
in federal spending during the 2003–2004 fiscal year. Farmers were
encouraged to use no or low-tillage methods, as well as crop rotation,

buffer strips, and other practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions
as well as soil erosion. Such practices were expected to retain 12 million
tons of greenhouse gases by 2012.
Farming with an eye to carbon limitations would utilize soil restora-
tion and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient
management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, wa-
ter conservation, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growth
of energy crops on spare lands. Intensive use of such practices, accord-
ing to one estimate, could offset fossil fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gi-
gatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15 percent of the global fossil fuel
emissions.
Tim O’Riordan of the Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environ-
mental Research said, “We have to put sustainable development at the
heart of businesses such as fish farming and agriculture. We need agricul-
tural stewardship schemes that have incentives for farmers to produce
according to sustainable principles, which in turn will deliver healthy
soil, water and wild life. This, in turn, should offer jobs in recreation
and education for eco-care. We also need the involvement of the local
community to ensure that all acts of stewardship have neighborhood
understanding and support” (Urquhart and Gilchrist, 2002, 9).
SIGNALS FROM EUROPE
Sweden and Norway have some of the highest liquor taxes in the
world, which have led to a large amount of smuggling from Denmark
mainly over an international bridge near Copenhagen. Until recently,
contraband seized at Malmo by the Tullverket (Swedish Customs) was
poured down the drain. Now, however, in today’s very green Sweden,
each year a million bottles of illicit liquor are trucked to a new high-tech
plant in Linköping (about 75 miles south of Stockholm) that manu-
factures biogas fuel for automobiles, as well as fertilizer. The plant also
accepts human and packing plant waste—part of Sweden’s drive to be-
come the world’s first oil-free society by the year 2050. In Sweden, biofuel
was being used by 2007 to power buses, taxis, garbage trucks, and pri-
vate cars, as well as a “biogas train” that runs between Linköping and
Västervik on the southeast coast.
Sweden has become very creative at finding ways to replace oil prod-
ucts with things that used to be wasted. To replace oil, Scandinavian
countries are using what they have in abundance: Iceland, geothermal
resources; Sweden, wood; Denmark, wind, often using simple, practical,
and elegant applications available now, at modest cost. Iceland plans by
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2050 to power all of its passenger cars and boats with hydrogen made
from electricity drawn from local, renewable resources.
In Iceland, 85 percent of the country’s 290,000 people use geothermal
energy to heat their homes; Iceland’s government, working with Shell
and Daimler-Chrysler, in 2003 began to convert Reykjavik’s city buses
from internal combustion to fuel cell engines, using hydroelectricity to
electrolyze water and produce hydrogen. The next stage is to convert
the country’s automobiles, then its fishing fleet. These conversions are
part of a systemic plan to divorce Iceland’s economy from fossil fuels.
U.S. STATES ACT ON AUTOMOBILE EFFICIENCY

The California Air Resources Board, defying the automobile indus-
try, voted unanimously during late September 2004 to approve the
world’s most stringent rules reducing automobiles’ greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Under the regulations, the automobile industry must cut exhaust
from cars and light trucks by 25 percent and from larger trucks and
sport-utility vehicles by 18 percent. The industry will have until 2009 to
begin introducing cleaner technology and will have until 2016 to meet
the new exhaust standards.
Because of the state’s large population, California’s plan for sharp
cuts in automotive emissions of greenhouse gases could lead most of
states on the East and West Coasts of the United States to require similar
emissions cuts. In turn, these requirements may cause the automakers
to adopt the same standards for cleaner, more fuel-efficient vehicles in
all the states. The only way to cut global warming emissions from cars is
to use less fossil fuel. Because of this limitation, proposed cuts in legally
allowable emissions would, as a side effect, force automakers to increase
fuel economy by roughly 35 to 45 percent. California’s plan requires
automakers to cut greenhouse gas emissions from their new vehicles by
29.2 percent over a decade, phasing in gradually from the 2009 to the
2015 model years.
During 2004, the governments of New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Con-
necticut said that they intended to follow California’s automobile rules
instead of the federal government’s. New York, Massachusetts, Vermont,
and Maine quickly adopted California rules. “Let’s work to reduce green-
house gases by adopting the carbon-dioxide emission standards for mo-
tor vehicles which were recently proposed by the State of California,”
New York Governor George E. Pataki said in his state-of-the-state address
during 2003.
These seven states and California account for almost 26 percent of
the U.S. auto market, according to R. L. Polk, a company that tracks
automobile registrations (Hakim, 2004, C-4). Automakers from Detroit

to Tokyo believe that these states, along with Canada, could form a
powerful bloc on automobile regulation to cut emissions of greenhouse
gasses. “It would be a logistical and engineering challenge, and a costly
problem,” said Dave Barthmuss, a spokesman for General Motors. “It’s
more cost-effective for us to have one set of emissions everywhere”
(Hakim, 2004, C-4). “If they only want to make one car,” said Roland
Hwang, a senior policy analyst at the Natural Resources Defense Coun-
cil, “[c]learly it should be a clean car, and that’s the California car”
(Hakim, 2004, C-4).
BUILDING CODE CHANGES
Considerable reduction of global warming may be possible through
wise use of new technology to improve the energy efficiency of dwellings,
factories, and offices. Energy consumption of heating and air condition-
ing systems could be reduced by as much as 90 percent in new buildings,
for example, with modern insulation, triple-glazed windows with tight
seals, and passive solar design (Speth, 2004, 65).
On January 1, 2003, Australia changed its national building code with
the explicit purpose of reducing energy consumption. Amendment 12
of the Building Code of Australia includes a range of measures appro-
priate for different climate zones of Australia that address wall, ceiling,
floor, and glazing thermal performance to avoid or reduce the use of
energy for artificial heating and cooling. This is achieved by utilizing
passive solar heating where it is available; using natural ventilation and
internal air movement to avoid or reduce the use of artificial cooling;
sealing houses in some climates to reduce energy loss through leakage;
insulation to reduce heat loss from water piping of central heating sys-
tems; and insulation and sealing to reduce energy loss through the walls
of ductwork associated with heating and air-conditioning systems
Danish building codes enacted in 1979 (and tightened several times
since) also require thick home insulation and tightly sealed windows.
Between 1975 and 2001, Denmark’s national heating bill fell 20 percent,
even as the amount of heated space increased by 30 percent (Abboud,
2007, A-13). Denmark’s gross domestic product has doubled on stable
energy usage during the last 30 years. The average Dane now uses 6,000
kilowatt-hours of electricity a year, less than half of the U.S. average
(13,300 kilowatt-hours).
Surplus heat from Danish power plants is piped to nearby homes, via
insulated pipes, in a system called “co-generation” or “district heating.”
This system uses heat that was once wasted at the power plants to heat
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residences. This change required reconstruction of Denmark’s energy

infrastructure, as power plants were built closer to homes. Streets were
torn up to install the pipes that carry heat. In the mid-1970s, Denmark
had 15 large power plants; it now has several hundred. By 2007, 6 in 10
Danish homes were heated this way, and it is less expensive than oil or
gas (Abboud, 2007, A-13).
IS THE KYOTO PROTOCOL A BAND-AID OR A DEAD LETTER?

Global greenhouse gas emissions are rising and evidences of a warm-
ing planet are developing much more quickly than world diplomacy
has been able to address them. The snail’s pace nature of international
diplomacy combines with the fact that we feel the results of fossil fuel
effluvia perhaps 50 years after the actual emissions through a complex
set of natural feedbacks involving thermal inertia. Thus, nature provides
direct evidence of heat long after the actions that cause it, requiring our
societies to act before this evidence is directly available.
Given these circumstances, The Kyoto Protocol provides little help,
even though its approval by Russia in September 2004, produced world-
wide implementation on paper. Russia thus joined 124 other countries
in ratifying the protocol and, with its 17.5 percent share of worldwide
carbon dioxide emissions, raised the world percentage to slightly more
than 60 percent, above the 55 percent required to bring Kyoto into
force.
Seven years after its negotiation in 1997, however, the only sizable
countries that have came close to meeting Kyoto Protocol target emis-
sion reductions have been Great Britain and Germany. Most other sig-
natories have not met their goals, and most third world countries with
rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions (India and China among
them) are not bound by its provisions. The Kyoto Protocol has become
more of a political rallying cry than a serious challenge to global warm-
ing. Even if the protocol were fully implemented, a projected temper-
ature rise of 2◦ C by 2050 would be reduced only by 0.07◦ C, according
to calculations by atmospheric scientist Thomas M. L. Wigley. In other
words, the Kyoto goals are only a small fraction of the reduction in
emissions required if worldwide temperature levels are to be stabilized
during the twenty-first century and afterwards (Wolf, 2000, 27).
As governments around the world argued over climate diplomacy
(and the United States, which produces more than one-fifth of the
world’s greenhouse gases, ignored the Kyoto Protocol) global emissions
of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion increased by 13 percent
above the 1990 levels by the year 2000, mainly due to large increases
in developing nations (led by China’s and India’s booming economies)

and substantial growth in the United States and other Western indus-
trialized nations, according to statistics compiled by the International
Energy Agency. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased
between 2000 and 2005 at record levels, mainly because China is indus-
trializing with dirty coal.
The increase between 1990 and 2000 would have been higher, except
for the collapse of former state socialist economies in Russia and East-
ern European nations during the period (Holly, 2002). Carbon dioxide
emissions for the period rose by 17.8 percent in the United States, from
4.8 billion tons in 1990 to 5.7 billion tons in 2000, while Western Euro-
pean emissions rose by 3.9 percent. As a result of the dissolution of the
Soviet Union and the resulting economic collapse in former Soviet na-
tions and Eastern Europe, carbon dioxide emissions in these nations fell
from 3.7 billion tons in 1990 to 2.6 billion tons, a drop of 30.6 percent
(Holly, 2002).
Emissions rose in all major economic sectors, including energy, trans-
port, industry and agriculture. An exception was waste management,
where emissions declined slightly. The figures did not include emis-
sions and removals from land-use change and forestry (Rich Countries,
2003). Greenhouse gas emissions in the highly industrialized countries
as a whole rose by 8 percent from 1990 to 2000. According to a report,
the European Union’s total emissions decreased by 3.5 percent from
1990 to 2000. Emissions increased in most other highly industrialized
countries, including 5 percent in New Zealand, 11 percent in Japan, 14
percent in the United States, 18 percent in Australia, and 20 percent in
Canada (Rich Countries, 2003).
TREE PLANTING AND GLOBAL WARMING: CAN NEW FORESTS
MAKE WARMING WORSE?
Carbon dioxide reduction from planting of forests has been pro-
posed (and promoted in the Kyoto Protocol), even as some scientists
have asserted that forests sometimes contribute to global warming. For
example, “[t]he albedo [reflectivity] of a forested landscape is generally
lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying. . . . In
many boreal forest areas, the positive forcing induced by decreases in
albedo can offset the negative forcing that is expected from carbon se-
questration” (Betts, 2000, 187). According to this analysis, planting more
forests in northern areas may actually worsen the greenhouse effect.
Researchers have used climate models to forecast changes in forest
cover under warming conditions. “We were hoping to find that growing
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forests in the United States would help slow global warming,” said Ken
Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution’s Department of Global Ecology.
“But if we are not careful, growing forests could make global warm-
ing even worse” (Temperate Forests, 2005). According to this research,
tropical forests aid cooling by evaporating large amounts of water, but
northern forests warm the Earth because they absorb sunlight without
releasing large amounts of moisture. In one simulation, the researchers
covered much of the northern hemisphere (above 20◦ latitude) with
forests and saw a jump in surface air temperature of more than 6◦ F.
The rise is sharpest in the far north where dark vegetative cover replaces
fields of snow and ice that reflected most incoming sunlight (Temperate
Forests, 2005).
Other research indicates that older, wild forests are far better at
removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than young trees.
One such analysis, published in the journal Science, was completed by
Dr. Ernst-Detlef Schulze, the director of the Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, and two other scientists at the insti-
tute. The study provided an important new argument for protecting old-
growth forests. The scientists said that their study provides a reminder
that the main goal should be to reduce carbon dioxide emissions at the
source, i.e., smokestacks and tailpipes.
“In old forests, huge amounts of carbon taken from the air are locked
away not only in the tree trunks and branches, but also deep in the soil,
where the carbon can stay for many centuries,” said Kevin R. Gurney,
a research scientist at Colorado State University. When such a forest is
cut, he said, almost all of that stored carbon is eventually returned to
the air in the form of carbon dioxide. “It took a huge amount of time
to get that carbon sequestered [captured] in those soils,” he said, “So
if you release it, even if you plant again, it’ll take equally long to get it
back” (Revkin, September 22, 2000, A-23).
The German study, together with other similar research, produced
a picture of mature forests that differed sharply from long-held beliefs
in forestry, Schulze said. He said that aging forests were long perceived
to be in a state of decay that releases as much carbon dioxide as it
captures. Soils in undisturbed tropical rain forests, Siberian woods, and
some German national parks contain enormous amounts of carbon
derived from fallen leaves, twigs, and buried roots that can bind to soil
particles and remain stored for 1,000 years or more. When such forests
are cut, the trees’ roots decay and soil is disrupted, releasing the carbon
dioxide (Revkin, September 22, 2000, A-23; Schulze et al. 2000, 2058).
“In contrast to the [carbon] sink management proposed in the Kyoto
Protocol, which favors young forest stands, we argue that preservation of

natural old-growth forests may have a larger effect on the carbon cycle
than promotion of re-growth,” the German researchers said (Schulze
et al., 2000, 2058). Instead of reducing the level of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere, the Kyoto Protocol emphasizes on new growth at the
expense of established forests.
PROBLEMS WITH OCEAN IRON FERTILIZATION

Should the oceans be seeded with large amounts of iron ore that will
increase the growth of phytoplankton that will consume carbon dioxide?
The idea has attracted some support among corporations and founda-
tions looking for ways to minimize the effects of carbon dioxide without
changing the world’s basic energy generation mix. The idea is simple
on its face: iron stimulates the growth of phytoplankton that absorbs
carbon dioxide. Ulf Riebesell, a marine biologist at the Alfred Wegener
Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany,
believes that iron seeding of the oceans could remove 3 to 5 billion
tons of carbon dioxide per year, or about 10 to 20 percent of human-
generated emissions (Schlermeier, 2003, 110). Patents have been issued
for ocean fertilization, and demonstration projects undertaken (Boyd
et al., 2000, 695–702; Watson et al., 2000, 730–733).
Nearly half of the Earth’s photosynthesis is performed by phytoplank-
ton in the world’s seas and oceans (Chisholm, 2000, 685). In the equato-
rial Pacific and Southern Oceans, Sallie W. Chisholm, a marine biologist
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, wrote in Nature that it “is
possible to stimulate the productivity of hundreds of square kilometers
of ocean with a few barrels of fertilizer” (Chisholm, 2000, 686). Atsushi
Tsuda and colleagues have studied iron fertilization and have found that,
under some circumstances, iron fertilization can dramatically increase
phytoplankton mass (Tsuda et al., 2003, 958–961).
In an experiment conducted between Tasmania (near southeastern
Australia) and Antarctica, researchers confirmed that vast stretches of
the world’s southern oceans are primed to explode with photosynthesis
but lack only iron. The researchers, who described their work in Nature,
said it is too soon to start large-scale iron seeding because the new
experiment raised as many questions as it answered. At best, they said,
iron seeding would absorb only a small amount of the carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere.
These scientists also said that their experimental bloom of plankton
was not tracked long enough to determine whether the carbon harvested
from the air sank into the deep sea or was again released into the
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environment as carbon dioxide. “There are still fundamental scientific

questions that need to be addressed before anyone can responsibly
promote iron fertilization as a climate-control tactic,” said Kenneth H.
Coale, an oceanographer who has helped design studies of iron’s effects
in the tropical Pacific (Revkin, October 12, 2000, A-18).
Iron fertilization has some potential problems. First, no way exists
to measure the amount of carbon absorbed by phytoplankton. Addi-
tionally, the algae produce dimethyl sulphide, which plays a role in
cloud formation. Phytoplankton also increases the amount of sunlight
absorbed by ocean water, as well as heat energy. It also produces com-
pounds such as methyl halides, which play a role in stratospheric ozone
depletion. The iron could promote the growth of toxic algae also which
may kill other marine life and change the chemistry of ocean water
by removing oxygen. “The oceans are a tightly linked system, one part
of which cannot be changed without resonating through the whole
system,” said Chisholm. “There is no free lunch” (Schlermeier, 2003,
110).
So much iron may be required to produce the desired effect that
fertilization of this type will never be commercially useful. “The exper-
iments enabled us to make an initial determination about the amount
of iron that would be required and the size of the area to be fertilized,”
said Ken O. Buesseler of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
who coauthored a study of the idea. “Based on the studies to date, the
amount of iron needed and [the] area of ocean that would be impacted
is too large to support the commercial application of iron to the ocean
as a solution to our greenhouse gas problem,” he explained. “It may not
be an inexpensive or practical option” (Iron Link, 2003).
Given the limits of present technology, one study estimated that an
area much larger than the Southern Ocean (all the Earth’s oceans from
50◦ south latitude to Antarctica) would have to be fertilized to remove 30
percent of the carbon dioxide that human activity presently injects into
the atmosphere. Thus, according to this study, “ocean iron fertilization
may not be a cheap and attractive option if impacts on carbon export
and sequestration are as low as observed to date” (Buesseler and Boyd,
2003, 68).
Despite its problems, iron fertilization is considered possible by some
scientists who have fed tons of iron into the Southern Ocean. They
reported evidence during 2004 that stimulating the growth of phyto-
plankton in this way may strengthen the oceans’ use as a carbon sink.
In a report published on April 16, 2004, in Science, ocean biologists and
chemists from more than 20 research centers said they triggered two
huge blooms of phytoplankton that turned the ocean green for weeks
and consumed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of tons of carbon diox-
ide. “These findings would be encouraging to those considering iron
fertilization as a global geo-engineering strategy,” said Coale. The scien-
tists involved in this experiment, however, are said to “realize that this
looked only skin deep at the functioning of ocean ecosystems and much
more needs to be understood before we recommend such a strategy on
a global scale” (Hoffman, 2004). Other researchers disagree strongly.
“From my work, I don’t think this could solve a significant fraction of
our greenhouse-gas problem while causing unknown ecological conse-
quences,” said Buesseler (Hoffman, 2004).
NUCLEAR POWER AS “CLEAN” ENERGY?
James Lovelock, who pioneered measurement of trace gases in the at-
mosphere and developed the idea of the Gaia hypothesis, has become a
staunch advocate of nuclear power to bridge the “gap” between fossil fu-
els and other sources of power (Lovelock, 2006). The hypothesis, named
after the Greek goddess of the Earth, has been defined by Lovelock as a
view that the planet acts as a living organism to maintain “life on Earth
[that] actively keeps the surface conditions always favorable for whatever
is the contemporary ensemble of organisms” (Volk, 2006, 869). Love-
lock, faced with scientific criticism, has since reformulated his school of
thought as a more abstract theory. Lovelock now asserts that human ma-
nipulation of greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere has stirred Gaia
to declare war on humanity in which she “now threatens us with the
ultimate penalty of extinction” (Volk, 2006, 869). Such language strikes
many other scientists as metaphorical and anthropomorphic (using hu-
man behavior to define natural processes). Pressed, Lovelock agreed
that the idea was a metaphor, with limited literal meaning (Volk, 2006,
869).
In The Revenge of Gaia, Lovelock asserts that because solar, wind, or
biomass will take too much room (a quarter million wind turbines,
for example, to provide for the power needs of the United Kingdom),
nuclear power should be used until nuclear fusion and more efficient
renewables are available. He sees nuclear waste as a small price to pay for
nuclear fuel’s value as a carbon-free, proven source of power. Fears of
radiation are overblown, Lovelock contends. (Lovelock also encourages
large-scale “geo-engineering” solutions, such as sun-blocking reflectors
in space.) Tyler Volk, reviewing the book in Nature, concluded, “Read
this book for its thoughtful sections on global energy and climate, but
steer clear of its web of Old Testament-like prophecy” (Volk, 2006, 870).
Solutions 161
Barry Commoner, one of the founders of the modern environmental

movement, opposes Lovelock’s position on nuclear power strongly:
This is a good example of shortsighted environmentalism. It superficially

makes sense to say, “Here’s a way of producing energy without carbon dioxide.”
But every activity that increases the amount of radioactivity to which we are
exposed is idiotic. There has to be a life-and-death reason to do it. I mean, we
haven’t solved the problem of waste yet. We still have used fuel sitting all over
the place. I think the fact that some people who have established a reputation
as environmentalists have adopted this is appalling. (Vinciguerra, 2007)
DEEP-SEA INJECTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE: EFFECTS ON LIFE

Disposal of carbon dioxide in the deeper parts of oceans has been
proposed as one method of reducing global warming. However, many
proposals to inject human-generated carbon dioxide into the oceans ig-
nore its possible effects on life at those levels. Brad A. Seibel and Patrick J.
Walsh examined these effects, finding that increased deep-water carbon
dioxide levels result in decreases of seawater pH (increasing acidity),
which can be harmful to sea creatures, “as has been demonstrated for
the effects of acid rain on freshwater fish” (Seibel and Walsh, 2001, 319).
They found that “a drop in arterial pH by just 0.2 would reduce bound
oxygen in the deep-sea crustacean Glyphocrangon vicaria by 25 per cent”
(Seibel and Walsh, 2001, 320). The same drop in arterial pH would re-
duce bound oxygen in the mid-water shrimp Gnathophausia ingens by 50
percent.
“Through various feedback mechanisms, the ocean circulation could
change and affect the retention time of carbon dioxide injected into the
deep ocean, thereby indirectly altering oceanic carbon storage and at-
mospheric carbon dioxide concentration,” said Atul Jain, a professor of
atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
(Global Warming Could Hamper, 2002). “Sequestering carbon in the
deep ocean is, at best, a technique to buy time,” Jain concluded. “Car-
bon dioxide dumped in the oceans won’t stay there forever. Eventually it
will percolate to the surface and into the atmosphere” (Global Warming
Could Hamper, 2002).
By 2002, tourism promoters, commercial fishermen, environmental-
ists, and sports groups had united in the Hawaiian Islands to oppose
experiments in carbon dioxide sequestration off the island of Kauai.
The effort has drawn support from Chevron/Texaco, General Motors,
Ford, and ExxonMobil. Opponents fear that it will increase the acidity
of the local ocean water and imperil animal and plant life. The U.S.
Department of Energy had allowed the companies to begin work with-

out an environmental impact statement because it asserted that human
beings would not be affected. Congressional representative Patsy Mink
of Hawaii said that “Hawaii’s ocean environment is too precious to put
at risk for an experiment of this kind” (Dunne, 2002, 2).
The same company that sought to inject carbon dioxide into the sea
off Hawaii also was lobbying to deposit 5.4 tons of pure CO2 deep under
the North Sea near Norway. This experiment was set to begin during
the summer of 2002 until environmentalists campaigned successfully to
stop it. According to an Environment News Service report, The Nor-
wegian oil firm Statoil already was injecting roughly 1 million tons of
CO2 per year into the rock strata of an offshore oilfield in the North
Sea, but no one has yet tried sequestration in the oceans. Led by the
Norwegian Institute for Water Research, a coalition including United
States, Japanese, Canadian and Australian organizations was planning to
inject five tons of liquid CO2 at 800 meters depth off the coast of Norway
(Liquid CO2 , 2002). Norway’s Pollution Control Authority granted the
project a discharge permit in early July 2002, subject to approval by the
environment ministry.
“The sea is not a dumping ground. It’s illegal to dump nuclear or
toxic waste at sea, and it’s illegal to dump CO2 —the fossil fuel industry’s
waste,” said Truls Gulowsen, Greenpeace Norway climate campaigner
(Liquid CO2 , 2002). A last-minute veto from Norway’s environment
minister Borge Brendeon on August 26, 2002, stopped the project.
“The possible future use of the ocean as a storage place for CO2 is
controversial . . . [It] could violate current international rules concern-
ing sea waters,” said Environment Minister Boerge Brende (Norway Says
No, 2002).
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The U.S. House of Representatives Going
Carbon-Neutral
The U.S. House of Representatives in 2007 made plans to become carbon-
neutral. The Chief Administrative Officer of the House, Dan Beard, who
was directed in March 2007 by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to find ways to make
the House side of the Capitol carbon-neutral, has worked to omit coal from
the fuel mix that heats and cools the U.S. Capitol and nearby buildings.
In addition, Beard’s office also installed compact fluorescent bulbs and
dimmers in 12,000 desk lamps in the House’s office buildings. Next, the
House would buy its electricity from renewable sources such as wind and
solar through an arrangement with Pepco, a Washington, D.C., electric
Solutions 163
utility, Beard said. After the House replaces coal with natural gas at the power
plant, it will reduce its annual carbon dioxide emissions by 75 percent. To
neutralize the remaining 25 percent and become carbon-neutral by 2010,
the House may buy offset credits or invest in conservation projects, Beard
said (Layton, 2007, A-17).
The Capitol power plant, four blocks from the House’s office buildings,
has burned coal since it opened in 1910 and is the only remaining coal-
burning facility in the District. The Capitol power plant (which produces no
electricity) generates steam and chilled water to heat and cool the Capitol,
the Supreme Court, the Library of Congress, and 19 other structures. Coal
accounts for 49 percent of its output; the rest is generated by natural gas
and oil (Layton, 2007, A-17).
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Corporate Sustainability Officers
Some companies are appointing “chief sustainability officers.” These offi-
cers, who also may hold the title “vice president for environmental affairs,”
join with vendors and customers to create and market green products.
Dow Chemical’s first chief sustainability officer, David E. Kepler, has been
meeting Dow’s technology, manufacturing, and finance leaders about al-
ternative fuels and green products. “We usually agree,” Mr. Kepler said.
“But if a critical environmental issue is in dispute, I’ll prevail” (Deutsch,
2007).
Linda J. Fisher, the chief sustainability officer at DuPont, weighed in
against purchase of a company that was not in a “sustainable” business.
“We’re building sustainability into the acquisition criteria,” she said. When
two business chiefs at General Electric opposed the cost of developing
environment-friendly products, Jeffrey R. Immelt, GE’s chairman, gave Lor-
raine Bolsinger, vice president of GE’s Ecomagination business, the research
money. “I have an open door to get projects funded,” she said (Deutsch,
2007).
Stephen Lane, who jokes that he is the “Al Gore of Citigroup,” is the
executive vice president whose full-time job is coaxing energy savings out
of the 340,000-employee, worldwide financial services giant. His tasks range
from an inventory of energy use in all of the company’s facilities to set-
ting policies that govern everything from installing solar energy and timed
lighting in bank branches to convincing employees to switch off lights that
are not being used and climb stairs instead of using escalators, which are
now stopped during nonbusiness hours. “What you can’t measure, you
can’t manage,” he says (Carlton, 2007, B-1). Other banks are taking sim-
ilar measures. HSBC, for example, has opened a “green” prototype branch
in Greece, New York, which its 400 branches in the United States will soon
emulate. Lane oversees a $10 billion Citigroup plan to reduce its carbon
footprint to 10 percent below the 2005 levels by the year 2011 (Carlton, 2007,
B-8).
By the end of 2007, more than 2,400 companies in the United States were
reporting their carbon emissions and energy costs through the Carbon
Disclosure Project, a nonprofit group of 315 institutional investors that
control $41 trillion worth of assets. Some are household names, such as
Coca-Cola, and Wal-Mart, which has begun to require its suppliers to report
and reduce their carbon footprints. Dell, the computer maker, announced
in 2008 that it will begin to neutralize the carbon impact of its operations
around the world (Investors, 2007, D-1).
By the end of 2007, some of the world’s largest multinational compa-
nies, among them Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Tesco (the British grocery
chain), and Nestle SA were requiring their suppliers to disclose carbon diox-
ide emissions and global warming mitigation strategies. The companies are
among several that have formed the Supply Chain Leadership Coalition that
cooperates with the London-based Carbon Disclosure Project. Eventually,
products may be labeled with carbon emission information. In 2007, Cad-
bury Schweppes was making plans to print such information on its chocolate
bars. At about the same time, Wal-Mart began a similar project by asking
Oakhurst Dairy, of Portland, Maine, to measure the carbon footprint of a
case of milk (Spencer, 2007, A-7).
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“CREATION CARE:” BIBLICAL STEWARDSHIP OF THE EARTH
The Bible’s content is diverse enough to be quoted in almost any con-
text. The same Good Book that commands us to multiply and subdue the
Earth also may be quoted to commend stewardship of the natural world.
The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (2001) has done as much in
its new “plea for dialogue, prudence, and the common good,” its con-
sensus statement on “global climate change.” The statement continued,
“How are we to fulfill God’s call to be stewards of creation in an age
when we may have the capacity to alter that creation significantly, and
perhaps irrevocably? We believe our response to global climate change
should be a sign of our respect for God’s creation” (U.S. Conference of
Catholic Bishops, 2001).
The bishops’ statement continued,
Global climate is by its very nature a part of the planetary com-

mons. The Earth’s atmosphere encompasses all people, creatures, and
habitats. . . . Stewardship [is] defined in this case as the ability to exercise
moral responsibility to care for the environment. . . . Our Catholic tradition
speaks of a “social mortgage” on property and, in this context, calls us to be
Solutions 165
good stewards of the Earth. . . . Stewardship requires a careful protection of

the environment and calls us to use our intelligence ‘to discover the earth’s
productive potential and the many different ways in which human needs
can be satisfied. (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001, quoting John
Paul II)
This statement asserted that responsibility weighs more heavily on

those with the power to act because the threats are often the greatest for
those who lack similar power, namely vulnerable poor peoples as well as
future generations. According to reports of the IPCC, significant delays
in addressing climate change may compound the problem and make
future remedies more difficult, painful, and costly. On the other hand,
said the bishops, the impact of prudent actions today can potentially
improve the situation over time, avoiding more painful but necessary
actions in the future (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001).
The bishops believe that passing along the problem of global climate
change to future generations as a result of our delay, indecision, or self-
interest would be easy. However, the statement said, “We simply cannot
leave this problem for the children of tomorrow. As stewards of their
heritage, we have an obligation to respect their dignity and to pass on
their natural inheritance, so that their lives are protected and, if possible,
made better than our own” (U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, 2001).
“Grateful for the gift of creation,” says the statement, “[w]e invite
Catholics and men and women of good will in every walk of life to con-
sider with us the moral issues raised by the environmental crisis. . . . These
are matters of powerful urgency and major consequence. They consti-
tute an exceptional call to conversion. As individuals, as institutions, as
a people, we need a change of heart to preserve and protect the planet
for our children and for generations yet unborn.” (U.S. Conference of
Catholic Bishops, 2001, quoting Renewing the Earth, n.d.).
Early in 2006, despite opposition from some of their colleagues, 86
evangelical Christian leaders decided to support an initiative to combat
global warming, saying, “[M]illions of people could die in this century
because of climate change, most of them our poorest global neighbors”
(Goodstein, 2006). Signers included presidents of 39 evangelical col-
leges, leaders of aid groups and churches, including the Salvation Army,
and pastors of some mega-churches, including Rick Warren, author of
the best seller The Purpose-Driven Life. “Many of us have required consid-
erable convincing before becoming persuaded that climate change is a
real problem and that it ought to matter to us as Christians. But now we
have seen and heard enough” (Goodstein, 2006).
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When Pigs Fly?
Will pigs fly? In the world of biomass fuel, they might. By 2007, the U.S.
Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space Adminis-
tration were funding exploratory projects into biofuels for jet airplanes. Syn-
troleum was providing the DOD with jet fuel derived from animal fats sup-
plied by Tyson Foods, Inc. Tyson is the world’s largest producer of chicken,
beef, and pork, producing prodigious amounts of animal fats, such as beef
tallow, pork lard, chicken fat, and greases, all of which may someday be used
as fuel.
The two companies have planned a factory at a thus far undesignated
location in the U.S. Southwest that after 2010 will produce 75 million gallons
of jet fuel per year. According to Syntroleum, the U.S. Air Force plans to
certify all its aircraft to run on alternative fuels by 2010 and wants 50 percent
of its fuel to come from domestic alternative sources by 2016 (Fueling Jets,
2007).
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Glossary
Acidity. As carbon dioxide levels rise in ocean and freshwater, acidity in-
creases, threatening animals with shells made of calcium.
Aerosols regarding Climate Change (see also Soot). Particles in the atmo-
sphere that, depending on their position and density, may increase or de-
crease global warming.
Albedo (see also Feedback Loops). Reflectivity. Light-colored surfaces, such
as snow, reflect much more heat than darker ones, such as forests or oceans.
Antarctic Oscillation. An upper-air wind pattern that usually circles the
South Pole and plays a role in the northward spread of the cold air that
builds up in this area.
Anthropomorphic. Human-created. This term usually is applied to emis-
sions of greenhouse gases, to distinguish them from those that are part of
the nature, as in the carbon cycle.
Arctic Oscillation. An upper-air wind pattern that usually circles the North
Pole and plays a role in the southward spread of the cold air that builds up
in this area.
Arrhenius, Savante. The first scientist, in 1896, to attempt an explanation of
infrared forcing (the greenhouse effect, or global warming) as a scientific
theory.
Bark Beetles (Pine Bark Beetles). Insects whose reproductive cycle speeds
up when temperatures warm, causing increased devastation of evergreen
trees.
Biomass Fuel (see also Ethanol). Fuel, used for vehicle propulsion or home
heating (among others), obtained from plant matter, including, most often,
sugarcane, corn, wood waste products, or animal waste, and other substances
that are sometimes discarded as waste.
Cap and Trade. A system of greenhouse gas controls that allows polluting
industries to buy and sell the right to release given amounts of carbon
172 Glossary
dioxide and other pollutants. In theory, such a system will reduce emissions
by allowing companies that reduce their production of greenhouse gases to
save money.
Carbon Cycle. A model that describes how carbon is cycled through the
earth and atmosphere.
Carbon Dioxide. One carbon and two oxygen atoms; the major greenhouse
gas.
Carbon Dioxide Level (Keeling Curve). A graphic description of carbon
dioxide levels in the atmosphere, first designed by Charles Keeling during
the late 1950s.
Carbon Sink. An area that absorbs carbon dioxide.
Carbon Tax. A government levy with the primary purpose of reducing car-
bon dioxide emissions by raising the price of fossil fuels (and affecting
demand) relative to other alternatives.
“Clathrate Gun” Hypothesis. See “Methane Burp” Hypothesis.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (see also Ozone; Stratospheric). An artificial
chemical introduced during the 1930s mainly as a cooling agent for air
conditioners. It was outlawed in the late 1980s because of a role in de-
pleting ozone in the stratosphere. CFCs also are greenhouse gases. Global
warming near the surface tends to aggravate ozone depletion in the upper
atmosphere.
Climatic Equilibrium (see also Feedbacks). Scientific formulas that measure
the pace with which the warming that we feel in the atmosphere catches up
with the “forcing” of greenhouse gases. The observed level of temperatures
in the air is probably about 50 years behind actual emission levels; in the
oceans, equilibrium is reached much more slowly, given their great thermal
inertia.
Climate Models. Scientific designs meant to forecast the effects of green-
house gas emissions (among other things) on climate.
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Solar energy produced with mirrors; a
new technology that may provide large-scale solar power at costs lower than
photovoltaic cells.
Contrarians (see also Skeptics). Opponents of the idea that increasing green-
house gas levels in the atmosphere are a major reason for steadily rising
temperatures.
Desertification. Conversion of land to desert, often by human activities,
such as overgrazing or other misuse.
Drunken Forest. A name applied in Alaska to forests that lean at odd angles
due to melting of permafrost.
Ethanol (see also Biomass Fuel). Fuel from vegetable sources (most often
corn or sugarcane) used for propulsion in combination with or as a replace-
ment for gasoline.
Glossary 173
Extinction. Elimination of species by natural or human-influenced

causes.
Feedback Loops (see also Tipping Points). Climatic forcings (influences)
that compound each other, adding to the speed and intensity of global
warming. The release of carbon dioxide and methane from melting per-
mafrost is an example of a feedback loop; change in albedo from white
snow to heat-absorbing dark surfaces (forests or oceans) is another.
Forcings, Climate. An influence on natural variations in climate; imposed
changes on the Earth’s energy balance, a temporary upsetting of the bal-
ance, which alters the Earth’s mean temperature. Forcings include changes
of the sun’s brightness, volcanic eruptions that discharge small particles
into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight and reducing solar heating, and
long-lived human-made “greenhouse gases” that trap the Earth’s heat radi-
ation. Climate forcings can be increased or diminished by other, induced
changes within the climate system, called “feedbacks.”
Fossil Fuels (see also Hydrocarbons). Substances used for energy produc-
tion, including petroleum, natural gas, and coal, that come from com-
pressed plant matter in the earth.
Fourier, Jean Baptiste Joseph. Scientist who, during the 1820s, compared
Earth’s atmosphere to a greenhouse.
Geoengineering. Proposed, large-scale, technological solutions for global
warming, such as injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.
Global Warming (see also Infrared forcing). Increase in atmospheric tem-
peratures near the Earth’s surface, usually caused by increases in levels of
greenhouse gases, natural or anthropomorphic.
Gore, Albert. U.S. vice president under Bill Clinton (1993–2001), author
of Earth in the Balance (1992), and winner of an Oscar for the documentary,
“An Inconvenient Truth” (2006), Gore, with the majority of the popular
vote, very narrowly lost the presidential race to George W. Bush in 2000,
following the intervention by the Supreme Court. He has been an early and
forceful advocate of action to curtail global warming. In 2007, Gore won
the Nobel Peace Prize.
Greenhouse effect (see also Global warming; Infrared Forcing). Retention
of heat in the atmosphere from an imbalance of radiation incoming and
outgoing, so called because it resembles the effect of a greenhouse.
Greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide, methane, and other atmospheric con-
stituents that retain heat, resulting in global warming (infrared forcing).
Hansen, James E. Long-term director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, in New York City. In addition to many scientific contribu-
tions, Hansen has been a long-time public advocate of action to reduce
greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, to the point where three U.S. presi-
dents (Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush) have tried
and failed to censor him.
174 Glossary
Heat Island Effect. Emission of waste heat and design factors that cause
most large cities to retain more heat than surrounding countryside, raising
their relative temperatures. The size of a city and density of population
intensify this effect.
Hydrocarbons (see also Fossil Fuels). Organic compounds including hydro-
gen, carbon, and oxygen, such as those found in coal, oil, and natural gas.
Hydrogen Fuel Cells. A source of energy, usually for vehicle propulsion,
which uses hydrogen as its main power source. Hydrogen fuel does not
occur in nature. To date, most hydrogen fuel is produced with fossil fuels.
Hydrological Cycle. The movement of water and water vapor between at-
mosphere and land or oceans. With increasing temperatures, the amount
of water vapor (a greenhouse gas) in this cycle increases.
Ice Cores. Cylindrical samples of ice taken from glaciers or ice caps that
are used by scientists to determine atmospheric composition in the past
(paleoclimate), including levels of carbon dioxide. To date, ice cores as old
as 800,000 years have been drilled from Antarctica.
Infrared Forcing. The scientific name for the greenhouse effect or global
warming.
Iron Fertilization (of the Oceans). Injection of iron into ocean water to
promote the growth of plankton, which absorbs carbon dioxide.
Kilowatt. Measuring unit of electrical power, equal to 1,000 watts, named in
honor of James Watt.
Methane. CH4 (one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms), an odorless,
tasteless gas that is flammable in its natural state, as natural gas. Methane
develops from decomposing organic matter, and is the second commonest
greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide.
“Methane Burp” Hypothesis (see also “Clathrate Gun” Hypothesis). A the-
ory which maintains that during the Earth’s past, rapid warming has caused
solid methane deposits in the oceans to turn to liquid and then eject into
the atmosphere as gas, leading to rapid episodes of warming.
El Nino/La Nina and Climate Change. A natural cycle that warms (El Nino)
or cools (La Nina) ocean water in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equa-
tor. The two cycles, which alternate, have important effects on worldwide
weather and climate.
Ozone. Molecule containing three oxygen atoms. Stratospheric ozone
shields the Earth’s surface from some forms of ultraviolet radiation that
can cause cancer in human beings and animals.
Ozone Depletion Stratospheric, and Global Warming. Accumulation of
heat near the surface of the Earth causes the stratosphere to cool, speed-
ing chemical reactions that destroy ozone there. Thus, a solution to ozone
depletion is partially dependent on reduction of warming near the surface.
Glossary 175
Paleoclimate. Climate of the past.

Permafrost (Thawing of ) (see also: Drunken Forest; Feedback Loops).
Heretofore permanently frozen ground, usually in or near the Arctic.
Photovoltaic Cells (see also Concentrating Solar Power). Devices that con-
vert the sun’s energy for solar power.
Phytoplankton. Basis of the oceanic food web, with ability to maintain life
influenced by water temperature, among other factors.
Sequestration (of Carbon Dioxide). Injection of carbon dioxide into the
oceans or underground caverns to keep it out of the atmosphere.
Skeptics (see also Contrarians). Opponents of the idea that increasing green-
house gas levels in the atmosphere are the major reason for steadily rising
temperatures. Many scientists prefer the term “contrarians” because of skep-
ticism’s legitimate role in scientific inquiry.
Soot (see also Aerosols). Atmospheric particles that influence other “forc-
ings” related to global warming. Black soot, in particular, may increase the
speed with which ice melts when exposed to sunlight.
Solar Power. See Photovoltaic Cells; Concentrating Solar Power.
Stewardship of the Earth. A religious rationale, found in the Bible, for atten-
tion to global warming and other environmental problems.
Thermohaline Circulation. Oceanic circulation, influenced by temperature
(thermo-) and salinity (-haline). Global warming may influence ocean cir-
culation and oxygen mixing.
Tipping Point (see also Feedback Loops). Point at which feedbacks take
control and propel a climatic forcing, such as the effect of increasing levels
of greenhouse gases, past a point where control (“mitigation”) is possible.
A tipping point may occur when a small additional forcing can cause large
climate change.
Venus. The second planet from the Sun, with an atmosphere that contains
95 percent carbon dioxide and a surface temperature of about 850◦ F, result
of global warming that has exceeded its “tipping point.”
Wind Power. Derivation of power from wind, usually with turbines. The cost
of wind energy has been falling to levels that are competitive with oil, gas,
and coal, so its capacity has been rising very quickly.
Annotated
Bibliography
INFORMING YOURSELF ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

As in most sciences, the real blow-by-blow in climate change takes place
in journals long before books get hold of it. If you’re really serious,
keep up with current climatic events in Nature, Science, the Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society (BAMS), Climatic Change, and the Journal of
Climate. The first two are written for scientists and serious lay readers and
carry reports in understandable English on the most important scientific
controversies. The climate journals are specialized, of course, and often
highly technical, although BAMS is not so hard-core.
A number of newspapers also carry good coverage of the issue,
most notably The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com), Los An-
geles Times, San Francisco Chronicle, and The Washington Post (http://www.
washingtonpost.com). The London newspapers also are very informa-
tive (Britain is miles ahead of the United States in general public aware-
ness of global warming). See, most notably, the London Guardian, The
Times, and The Independent, which is a tabloid but has long made global
warming a priority issue. In Canada, the Ottawa Citizen, Toronto Star,
and Montreal Gazette are worth watching.
The Internet is a treasure trove on the subject, with many reports
from various environmental and scientific organizations, including the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Environment
News Service (ENS) also offers detailed day-to-day coverage of the issue.
SCIENTISTS (AND OTHERS) TO WATCH

Richard B. Alley: An expert on Arctic ice melt.
Ken (or Kenneth) Caldeira: An expert on the carbonization (increasing acidifica-
tion) of the oceans and many other newsworthy subjects.
Ruth Curry: Oceanographer; an expert on ocean (thermohaline) circulation.
178 Annotated Bibliography
Kerry A. Emanuel: An expert on hurricanes and global warming.

Paul Epstein: An outspoken expert on human health and warming.
Jim (or James E.) Hansen: Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Stud-
ies in New York City, and a long-time veteran of the “weather wars” who has
repudiated attempts to silence him from the Reagan and George W. Bush ad-
ministrations. His science and prescience is solid.
John T. Houghton: That’s “Sir” Houghton in Britain. He’s a former chairman of the
IPCC who is widely quoted on the subject in the British press.
Thomas R. Karl: As the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin-
istration’s National Climatic Data Center, Karl is, in effect, the keeper of the
national thermometer.
Richard A. Kerr: Staff writer for the journal Science on climate change.
Christopher Landsea: A hurricane expert and participant in a robust debate over
the effects of global warming on these storms.
Daniel C. Nepstad: An expert on the Amazon Valley and warming’s probable effects
there.
Jonathan T. Overpeck: An expert on future ice sheet instability and sea level rise.
J. Alan Pounds: An expert on widespread amphibian extinctions because of epidemic
diseases driven in part by global warming.
Veerabhadran Ramanathan: A long-time researcher on aerosols, climate, and the
hydrological cycle, especially as they effect his native India.
Eric Rignot: An expert on the recession of Antarctic ice.
Mark C. Serreze: An expert on changes in Arctic ice due to global warming.
Lonnie G. Thompson: Probably the world’s foremost expert on global warming and
melting of glaciers in tropical mountains, such as the Andes and Himalayas.
Kevin E. Trenberth: An expert on global warming and the hydrological cycle, in-
cluding El Nino cycles.
Gian-Reto Walther: Based in Germany, he is a leading researcher in global warming’s
effects on plants.
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Alley, Richard B. “Ice-core Evidence of Abrupt Climate Changes.” Proceedings of
the National Academy of Sciences 97(4) (February 15, 2000): 1331–1334. Expert
analysis of evidence provided by ice cores for abrupt climate changes in the
past.
———. The Two-Mile Time Machine Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future.
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and Sea-Level Changes.” Science 310 (October 21, 2005): 456–460. Sea level rise
and its relationship with melting of large ice masses in various parts of the world.
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readable survey of ice melt in the Arctic, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers, with
explanations describing why the process has been speeding up.
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scientific journal to explain the heat-retaining capabilities of carbon dioxide.
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assessment of possible reduction of Antarctica’s western snowpack.
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U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. “Global Climate Change: A Plea for Dialogue,
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Index
Note: The letter “f” following a page number denotes a figure on that page.
Abdalati, Waleed, 49 Animal fats, as fuel, 166

Accelerated Climate Prediction Animals. See Plants and animals; specific
Initiative (ACPI), 30 animal
Acidity: definition of, 171; of ocean Annan, Kofi, 23–24
water, xix, 86–87, 161 Antarctica: carbon dioxide levels in,
Aerosols: regarding climate school, 171; xvii; climate contradictions in, 54–55;
sulfate, 24. See also Soot ice shelf collapse in, 55–57; ozone
Africa: increasing drought in, 20, 23; hole in, 15; speed of ice melt in,
malaria in, 123, 124, 129. See also 57–58; warming effect on ocean food
individual country web in, 58–60
Aircraft fuel, 142–43 Antarctic oscillation, definition of,
Air travel, 142–44 171
Alainga, Pitseolak, 43 Anthropomorphic, definition of, 171
Alaska: drunken forests in, 45f–46; Arctic: albedo changes and global
glacier tourism in, 44–45; retreating warming in, 44; effects of unseasonal
mountain glaciers in, 61; sea erosion rain in, 40–41; ice in thinning in,
in, 47–48; spruce beetle outbreaks in, 39–40, 41; opening of Northwest
46–47f Passage in, 53f; personal stories of
Albedo flip, 44 climate change in, 41–43; polar bears
Albedo (reflectivity), 10, 43–44, 171. See under pressure in, 50–52, 105
also Feedback loops Argentina: dengue fever in, 120–21;
Allen, Hartwell, 101 retreating mountain glaciers in,
Allen, Kurt, 117 61–62
Alley, Richard, 11–12, 13 Armadillos, 107–9, 108f
Alligators, 106–7f Arrhenius, Savante, 2, 171
Alps, 60, 64–66, 120 Arrigo, Kevin, 59
Amazon Valley, 111, 118, 120 Ash trees, 109
Anderson, Jay, 52 Asia: increasing drought in, 20, 23–24.
Andes: cloud forests in, 111; glacier See also individual country
retreat in, 66–68; potato fungus in, Asner, Gregory P., 118
101 Atkinson, Angus, 58
188 Index
Atmosphere, composition of, 1–2 Branson, Richard, 143

Atmospheric envelope, 2 Brazil, 118, 145
Audubon, John J., 115–16 Breakbone fever, 121
Australia: building code changes in, Brendeon, Borge, 162
154; global warming effects in, 34–35; Broecker, Wallace S., 85
greenhouse gas emissions in, 156; Buesseler, Ken O., 159
increasing drought in, 20 Building code changes, 154–55
Automobile greenhouse gas emissions, Bush, George W., 31, 145, 147
153–54
Caldeira, Ken, 86–87, 157
Baltimore orioles, 115–16 Callendar, G. D., 2–3
Banana plants, in English gardens, Canada: artificial hockey ice in, 52;
33 greenhouse gas emissions in, 154,
Bangladesh: flooding in, 81; fossil fuel 156; increasing drought in, 20;
use in, 6 peaking runoff in, 30
Barger, Andre, 68 Canadell, Joseph G., 5
Bark beetles: Douglas fir, 117; mountain Cap and trade, definition of, 171–72
pine, 117; pine, 117, 171; spread Carbon cycle, 158, 171–72
across U.S., 117–18; spruce, 46–47f, Carbon dioxide: deep sea disposal of,
117 161–62; definition of, 171–72; effect
Barkham, Patrick, 80 on ocean acidity, 86–87; increase in
Barnett, Tim, 30, 74 atmosphere, xiv, xvi, 4; levels at
Barter, Guy, 33 Mauna Loa, 5f–6
Barthmuss, Dave, 154 Carbon dioxide level (Keeling curve),
Battisti, David, 85–86 definition of, 172
Beard, Dan, 150, 162–63 Carbon Disclosure Project, 164
Beaty, Barry, 128 Carbon-intensive foods, 144–45
Beaugrand, Gregory, 87 Carbon-neutral, 162
Beckett, Margaret, 32 Carbon sink, 157–58, 172
Beebee, Trevor, 104 Carbon tax, 150–51, 172
Benton, Michael, 99–100 Cassman, Kenneth G., 102–3
Bentz, Barbara, 117 Chile, retreating mountain glaciers in,
Bicycles, 141–42 61–62
Biofuels, 101, 134, 140, 145–47, 149, China: coal-fired power in, 136;
152, 166 drinking water supply in, 62; floods
Biomass fuel, 149–50, 166, 171 in, 21; fossil fuel use in, xiii, 6, 7–8;
Birds: Baltimore orioles, 115–16; greenhouse gas emissions in, xvi, 155,
seabirds, 113–14 156; railroads in, 141; retreating
Birdwell, Kevin, 31 mountain glaciers in, 62; rising food
Bisgrove, Richard, 33 prices in, 146; rising sea levels in,
Blix, Hans, xv–xvi 76–77
Bolide, 86 Chirac, Jacques, 150–51
Bolivia, 62, 66 Chisholm, Sallie W., 158, 159
Bolsinger, Lorraine, 163 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 15, 172.
Boltz, Brian, 109 See also Ozone; Stratospheric
Bond, Gerard, 12 Clark, P. U., 55
Bondam, Klaus, 141 Clathrate gun hypothesis. See Methane
Bordees, Ed, 121 burp hypothesis
Index 189
Clathrates, 10 Drinking water supply: in Alaska, 48; in

Climate change: abrupt nature of, Australia, 35; in China, 62; in India,
11–12; sun as major driver, 62; in North America, 29
12–13 Drunken forests, 45f–46, 172
Climate forcings, xv, 3, 12, 74, 173
Climate models, 3, 8, 11, 18, 20, 23, 29, Eastern Europe, greenhouse gas
33, 55, 74, 156–57, 172 emissions in, 156
Climatic equilibrium: definition of, 172. Ecuador, 62, 66
See also Feedback loops Effects on Human Health, 120
Coale, Kenneth H., 159, 160 Egan, Tom, 46
Coal-fired electricity, 134–36 Egypt, rising sea levels in, 77
Colquhoun, Andrew, 33 El Nino/La Nina and climate charge,
Commoner, Barry, 161 6, 21, 25, 27–28, 87, 113, 118, 123,
Concentrating solar power (CSP), 174
138–40, 172 Emanuel, Kerry, 25–27
Contrarians, 21, 172. See also Skeptics Emerald ash borer, 109
Cook, Gary, 106 Encephalitis, 121
Coral atolls, 80 Endangered Species Act, 51
Coral reefs, 87–89, 88f, 104 Energy use, change in, 133–34
Corporate sustainability officers, England. See Great Britain
163–64 Epstein, Paul, 121–23, 124
Costa Rica, 110–11 Eskimo, 42–43
Crop yields, reduced, 101–3 Ethanol, 145–46, 172. See also Biomass
Crowley, Tom, 68 fuel
Cuckoo, decline in England, 110 Europe: carbon tax in, 150–51; global
Cunningham, Stuart, 84 warming in, 17–19; greenhouse gas
Curry, Judith, 28 emissions in, 156; increasing drought
Curry, Ruth, 83–84 in, 20; oil replacement in, 152–53;
wind power in, 136–37
Dai, Aiguo, 20 Extinction: definition of, 173; mass,
Daily, Gretchen, 112 98–100
Davis, Curt H., 55
Davis, Robert, 125 Farming technology improvements,
Deforestation, 110–11 151–52
DeGaetano, Arthur, 126 Feedback loops, xiv, 9–12, 75; definition
Dengue fever, 36, 120–22, 123, 124, 127, of, 173. See also Tipping points
128–29 Field, Chris, 5
Denmark: bicycles in, 141–42; building Field, Christopher, 101
code changes in, 154–55; oil Fish, decline in yields, 89–91
replacement in, 152; wind power in, Fisher, Linda J., 163
136, 137, 138 Forcings, climate, xv, 3, 12, 74, 173
Deque, Michel, 18 Forests: deforestation, 110–11; tree
Derocher, Andrew, 51 planting, 156–58; tropical mountain
Desertification, 23–24, 172 forests, 110–12
Dettinger, Michael, 29 Fossil fuels: definition of, 173; increase
Diseases, warming effect on spread of, in demand, xiii, 6–8. See also
121–23 Hydrocarbons
Douglas fir bark beetles, 117 Fourier, Jean Baptiste Joseph, 2, 173
190 Index
France, 8, 17, 18, 120, 141 Greenhouse effect: definition of, 173;
Fraser, Paul, xvi history of idea of, 2–3; on Venus, 1–2.
Fritz, Mike, 108 See also Global warming; Infrared
Frogs, 112 forcing
Frost, Robert, 22 Greenhouse gases: automobile, 153–54;
definition of, 173; increasing levels
Gaia hypothesis, 160 of, xiv, xvi, 3, 155–56; and wintertime
Gehrels, Roland, 76 warming, 8
Geoengineering, definition of, 173 Greenland, ice melt in, 10, 48–50, 49f,
Geothermal energy, 150 75, 83–84
Germany: forests in, 157–58; Gregory, Jonathan, 50
greenhouse gas emissions in, 155; Grinnell, George Bird, 61
solar power in, 149; wind power in, Grinspoon, David, 14
137, 138 Gulf of Mexico coast, sea level rise,
Gibbons, Whitfield, 112 79–80
Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Gulowsen, Truls, 162
65–66 Gurney, Kevin R., 157
Glacier tourists, 44–45
Glick, Patricia, 116 Hadley, Paul, 33
Global warming: in Australia, 34–35; Hagiwara, Shinsuke, 36
average temperatures, 1800-present, Haines, Andrew, 122
4f; definition of, 173; development of Hallam, Anthony, 99
field of, xvi–xvii; drought and deluge, Hansen, James E., 9, 11, 44, 74–75,
19–21; drought and deluge, example, 78–79, 134–36, 173
21–23; effect on ice age cycle, 68; in Harris, Charles, 65
Great Britain, 31–33; and hurricanes, Hartshorn, Gary S., 111–12
24–31; in Japan, 35–36; and North Hay, H. I., 129
America’s water supplies, 29–31; and Health benefits, of warming,
ozone depletion, 15; small 127–29
temperature changes, 103–5; soot Heat island effect, 125–26, 174
effect on, 11; and spreading deserts, Heat waves, death from, 125–27
23–24; and stratospheric cooling, 15; Hedger, Marilyn McKenzie, 32
surface albedo effect on, 43–44; and Herms, Dan, 109
surface warming, 14; temperatures Himalayas, retreating mountain glaciers
spikes, xiii–xiv. See also Infrared in, 62
forcing HIV/AIDS, 122
Global Warming and Hurricanes, 24 Hockey, artificial ice for, 52
Glossary, 171–75 Hogbom, Arvid, 2
Gore, Albert, 3, 173 Houghton, John, xvi, 121
Graham, Monty, 91 House of Representatives, as
Grant, Paul M., 148 carbon-neutral, 162–63
Gray, William M., 28 Howard, John, 35
Great Britain: decline of cuckoo in, Howard, Luke, 125
110; flooding in, 32; fossil fuel use in, Hughes, T. P., 88–89
8; global warming in, 31–33; Human health, climate change effect
greenhouse gas emissions in, 155; on, 120–21
horticulture in, 32–33 Hungary, rising food prices in, 146
“Green” electric power, 148–49 Huq, Saleemul, 81
Index 191
Hurricane Floyd, 124 Keller, Michael, 118

Hurricane Katrina, 25, 80, 118 Kelly, John, 150
Hutchinson, Rob, 125 Kepler, David E., 163
Hwang, Roland, 154 Kerr, Richard, 13, 85
Hydrocarbons: definition of, 174. See Kiesecker, Joseph M., 113
also Fossil fuels Kilowatt, definition of, 174
Hydrogen fuel cells, 140, 174 Knutson, Thomas R., 27
Hydrogen fuel cell transport, 147–48 Kobayashi, Mutsuo, 35
Hydrological cycle, 17, 19, 23, 174 Koehn, Jonathan, 151
Koizumi, Junichiro, 35
Ice cores, xvi, xvii, 174 Konviser, Bruce I., 65–66
Iceland, oil replacement in, 152–53 Krajick, Kevin, 55
Ikalukjuaq, Noire, 42 Krill, 58f, 59, 104
Illegal dumping, 162 Kyoto Protocol, 150–51, 155–56,
Immelt, Jeffrey R., 163 157–58
India: drinking water supply in, 62;
greenhouse gas emissions in, 155, Lake-effect snow, 20
156; retreating mountain glaciers in, Lake Tanganyika, 89–91
62; rising food prices in, 146; rising Lal, Rattan, 151
sea levels in, 77; wind power in, 138 Lane, Stephen, 163
Indonesia, 75 Langley, Dennis, 149–50
Industrial Revolution, 2 Larsen ice shelves, 56–57, 58
Indy 500, running on ethanol, 146–47 Lavers, Chris, 100
Influenza, xix, 127 Lawton, Robert O., 110–11
Infrared forcing, 1, 3, 174 Laxon, Seymour, 51
Insurance industry, xv Leake, Jonathan, 13–14
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Leggett, Jeremy, 122
Change (IPCC), 42, 78–79, 99, 122, Levene, Peter, xv
124, 165 Lobell, David, 101, 102
Inuit, 41–42 Loggerhead sea turtles, xix, 116f–17
Iron fertilization (of oceans), 158–60, Lomborg, Bjorn, 128
174 Loutre, Marie-France, 68
Italy: flooding in, 65–66, 81–82; malaria Lovelock, James, 160
in, 124–25 Lovins, Amory, 140
Lynas, Mark, 46, 48
Jacamba Glacier, 67f
Jain, Atul, 161 MacDonald, Jim, 52
Japan, 7, 156; railroads in, 141; solar Madagascar, 111
power in, 149; warming in, 35–36 Malaria, xix, 121–22, 123–25, 127–29
Jellyfish, 91–92f Maple trees, 28–29
Johnson, Leonard, 22 Marely, David, 110
Jones, Adrian, 14 Marine life, threats to, 86–87
Mars, 2
Kaiser, Dale, 31 Martens, Pim, 123, 127
Kalkstein, Laurence S., 127 Martens, William, 123
Karl, Thomas, xv Mass extinctions: within last century, 98;
Karoly, David, 34 250 million years ago, 98–100
Keeling, Charles, 4 McCain, John, 42
192 Index
McEwen, Bill, 117–18 Ozone, definition of, 174

McKibben, Bill, xiii Ozone depletion, 14–15, 54, 159, 174
McKie, Robin, 65
Meacher, Michael, 32 Pacala, S., 133–34
Meehl, Gerald A., 18–19 Pachauri, Rajendra, xv, 10
Meltwater pulse, 55 Pacific Ocean islands, rising sea levels
Methane, xiv, 1, 2, 3, 5, 44; as biomass in, 80–81
fuel, 148–49, 169; definition of, Pakistan, 124
174 Paleoclimate, 79, 175
Methane burp hypothesis, 10–11, 100; Paleotempestology, 27
definition of, 174 Palmer, Martin, xvii
Milly, P. C. D., 20 Palmer Drought Severity Index, 23
Mink, Patsy, 162 Palm trees: in English gardens, 32–33;
Mississippi River, 106 in southern Switzerland, 119f–20
Molnia, Bruce, 45, 61 Papua New Guinea, 124
Monbiot, George, 142–43 Paris, railroads in, 141
Moohan, Jacqueline, 119 Parmesan, Camille, 106
Mosquitoes, 36, 42, 45, 68, 104, 120, Parry, Martin, xiii
121–22, 123–25, 124f, 127–28 Pataki, George E., 153
Mote, Phillip, 64 Payne, Roger, 60
Mountain glaciers, 60–68 Pearson, Paul, xvii
Mountain pine bark beetles, 117 Peck, Lloyd, 60
Mount Kilimanjaro, 62–64, 63f Pelosi, Nancy, 162
Penguins, 59f–60, 113
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Permafrost, thawing of, xv, xvii, xviii, 6,
Administration (NOAA), 79–80 10, 42, 46, 48, 65, 175. See also
Nattaq, Simon, 43 Drunken forests; Feedback loops
Nazarenko, Larissa, 11 Personal transport changes, 140–42
Nelson, Lloyd, 108 Peru, 62, 66–68, 120
Net metering, 148 Pfirrmann, Eric, 92
Newcomen, Thomas, 2 Photovoltaic cells, 134, 138–39f, 148,
New England, maple trees in, 28–29 149, 175. See also Concentrating solar
New Guinea, cloud forests in, 111 power
New Zealand, 113–14, 156 Phytoplankton, 59, 73, 87, 114, 158–60,
Nielsen, Clay, 108 175
Nigam, Rajiv, 77 Pimentel, David, 144
Nisbet, Euan, 64 Plants and animals: species moving
Nixon, Joshua, 108 toward poles, 105–10. See also
Northwest Passage, 53f individual plant or animal
Norway, 61, 162 Plass, Gilbert, 3
Nuclear power, 134, 148, 160–61, 162 Poison ivy, 118–19
Nyberg, Johan, 27 Polar bears, 50–52, 105
Polk, R. L., 153–54
Ocean circulation, 161–62 Pollon, Michael, 145
Ocean iron fertilization, 158–60, 174 Portocarrero, Cesar, 67–68
Olivier, Jos, 7 Post-apocalyptic greenhouse, 99
O’Reilly, Catherine, 90 Pounds, J. Allen, 113
O’Riordan, Tim, 144, 152 Prestrud, Pal, 41
Index 193
Quelccaya ice cap, 66 Seals, 59

Sea turtles, loggerhead, xix, 116f–17
Railroads, 141 Seibel, Brad A., 161
Randolph, Sarah E., 128 Seijo, Alfredo, 120
Raupach, Mike, xvi, 6 Sequestration, 134, 175
Reiter, Paul, 128–29 Serreze, Mark, 41, 43
Retallack, Greg, 100 Setter, Tim L., 1–3
Revelle, Roger, 3 Seymour, Jamie, 91–92
Revkin, Andrew, 19 Sharp, Phillip R., 145
Reynolds, Anna, 34 Sheehy, John, 101
Rice crop, 102–3 Shindell, Drew, 8
Riebesell, Ulf, 158 Siegel, Kassie, 105
Rifkin, Jeremy, 147 Skeptics, 128, 175. See also Contrarians
Riggs, Stanley, 76 Skvarca, Pedro, 58
Rind, David, 44 Smiraglia, Claudia, 65
Risbey, James, 34 Snowfall, 31
Roberts, Callum M., 89 Socolow, R., 133–34
Rodgers, T. J., 139 Solar power, 142, 148–49;
Rogers, David J., 128 concentrating solar power, 138–40
Root, Terry, 105–6 Soot, 11, 44, 79, 144, 175. See also
Rosentrater, Lynn, 51 Aerosols
Ross Ice Shelf, 54–55, 56 Spain: retreating mountain glaciers in,
Rotstayn, Leon, 24 61; solar power in, 138–39; wind
Russia, greenhouse gas emissions in, power in, 137–38
155, 156 Spalding, Mark, 89
Spruce bark beetles, 46–47f, 117
Sagar, Paul, 114 Steffen, Konrad, 49
Samuels, Paul, 32 Steiner, Achim, 112
Sarmiento, Jorge, 68 Stevenson, Court, 76
Sato, Makiko, 9 Stewardship of the earth, 164–65, 175
Scambos, Ted, 55–57 Stott, Peter A., 18
Scandinavia, oil replacement in, 152 Stratospheric cooling, 14
Schauer, Ursula, 40 Street, Harry, 64
Schlitter, Duane, 108 Sub-Saharan Africa, cuckoo in, 110
Schmidt, Gavin, 8 Suess, Hans, 3
Schultz, Peter, 115 Sugarcane, 145
Schulze, Ernst-Detlef, 157 Surplus to the Power Company, 148
Scotland, seabirds in, 114–15 Sweden, retreating mountain glaciers
Seabirds, 113–14; penguins, 59f–60, in, 61
113 Swisher, Randall, 138
Seager, Richard, 85–86 Switzerland: palms in southern,
Sea level rise: on Gulf of Mexico coast, 119f–20; retreating mountain glaciers
79–80; as human induced, 74–75; in, 61
local examples, 76–78; negative
effects of, 73; in Pacific Ocean Tanganyika, 89
islands, 80–81; speeding of, 78–79; Tanzania, 62–64
stakes of, 75–76. See also Tebaldi, Claudia, 18–19
Thermohaline circulation Termites, 121
194 Index
Thermal inertia, xiv, 10, 74, 155 Van Pelt, Sarah, 151
Thermal opacity, 9 Vaughn, David, 56
Thermohaline circulation: debate over, Venice, flooding in, 81
85–86; definition of, 175; evidence of Venus, 1–2, 13–14, 175
breaking down, 84–85; warming Verburg, Piet, 90
effect on, 10, 73, 82–84, 83f Verschuren, Dirk, 91
Thompson, Lonnie, 64 Vescovi, Kay, 107
Thompson, Tom, 52 Volk, Tyler, 160
Tipping points, xiv–xv, 9, 10, 40;
definition of, 175. See also Feedback Wallace, John M., 19
loops Walsh, Patrick J., 161
Toepfer, Klaus, 62 Walther, Gian-Reto, 97, 103–4, 119–20
Trauth, Stan, 107 Warming, and reducing rice yields,
Tree planting, 156–58 102
Trenberth, Kevin, xv Warren, Rick, 165
Tropical mountain forests, 110–12 Watt, James, 2
Tuberculosis, 122 Watt-Cloutier, Shelia, 40–41, 42
Tuleya, Robert E., 27 Weart, Spencer R., 83
Turkey, rising food prices in, 146 Wegener, Alfred, 158
Tuvalu, 80 Weller, Gunter, 44–45
Tyndall, John, 2 West Africa, monsoons in, 25
West Antarctic, 10
United Kingdom: air travel in, 142–43; Western toads, 112–13
fossil fuel use in, 6; mosquitoes in, Whales, 59, 60
125 Wickett, Michael E., 86–87
United States: air travel in, 142, 143; Wigley, Thomas, 75, 155
biomass fuel in, 149–50; carbon Wignall, Paul, 99
dioxide sequestration and, 161–62; Wilson, Scott, 67
carbon tax and, 151; ethanol in, Wind power: capacity surges in, 136–40;
145–46; farming technology in, definition of, 175
151–52; fossil fuel use in, xiii, 6, 7; Wohlforth, Charles, 46
geothermal energy in, 150;
greenhouse gas emissions in, xvi, Yellow fever, 120, 121, 122, 127
153–54, 155–56; peaking runoff in, Yohe, Gary, 106
30; retreating mountain glaciers in, Yuwono, Arief, 75
61; rising sea levels in, 76, 77f–78f,
79–80; solar power in, 139–40, 149; Zimmerman, Bob, 127–28
wind power in, 136, 138 Ziska, Ledwis, 119
UV-B radiation, 15, 113 Zooplankton, 87
About the Author
BRUCE E. JOHANSEN is Frederick W. Kayser Professor at the Uni-

versity of Nebraska at Omaha. He has been teaching and writing in
the School of Communication at UNO since 1982. Johansen writes fre-
quently about environmental subjects, including Global Warming in the
21st century (Praeger, 3 vols. 2006), The Global Warming Desk Reference
(Greenwood, 2001), The Dirty Dozen: Toxic Chemicals and the Earth’s Future
(Praeger, 2003), and Indigenous Peoples and Environmental Issues (Green-
wood, 2004).

Global Warming 101 (Science 101 Series) Bruce E. Johansen 2008 Greenwood Press

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Global Warming 101

Recent Titles in the

Human Origins 101

Johansen, Bruce E. (Bruce Elliott), 1950–

All rights reserved. No portion of this book may be

The paper used in this book complies with the

1. Global Warming Science: The Basics 1

Warming and North America’s Water Supplies 29

Mass Extinctions: What Happened 250 Million Years Ago? 98

Is the Kyoto Protocol a Band-Aid or a Dead Letter? 155

What should you know about science? Because science is so central

FEEDBACK LOOPS AND TIPPING POINTS

HUMAN INFLUENCES, AS THE DOMINANT CLIMATE

Lord Peter Levene, board chairman of Lloyd’s of London, has said

who attempts to write such references is that material is accumulating

York City, Miami, New Orleans, London, Mumbai, Calcutta, Shanghai,

COMPOSITION OF EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE

hot enough to melt lead. The planet Mars’ atmosphere is 95 percent

HISTORY OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AS AN IDEA

carbon dioxide emissions by industry (Callendar, 1938). While Callen-

INCREASING LEVELS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN

Global average temperatures, 1880 to the present ( Jeff Dixon)

evidence of progress in managing those emissions,” said Chris Field,

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii ( Jeff

The Mauna Loa record indicated an 18.8 percent increase in the

THE USE OF ENERGY FROM FOSSIL FUELS CONTINUES

gases. Sometimes these manufactured goods (such as automobiles) also

GREENHOUSE GASES AND WINTERTIME WARMING

FEEDBACK LOOPS: GLOBAL WARMING’S

SOOT: A “WILD CARD” IN GLOBAL WARMING

THE ABRUPT NATURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

probability of large, abrupt events,” wrote a team led by Alley (Alley

THE SUN AS A MAJOR “DRIVER” OF CLIMATE CHANGE

next few centuries,” according to a report by Richard Kerr in Science

ONCE UPON A GREEN VENUS?

Surface of Venus ( Jeff Dixon)

SURFACE WARMING, STRATOSPHERIC COOLING,

ozone depletion tend to accelerate as the stratosphere cools, retarding

DROUGHT AND DELUGE

Even as rains inundated some places, the percentage of Earth’s land

DROUGHT AND DELUGE: MANY EXAMPLES

regarding whether and to what degree, hurricane intensity and fre-

warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive

earlier than at present. With rains melting snow or drenching already-

“The physics is very simple: Higher temperatures mean there is more

Reading University scientists Richard Bisgrove and Paul Hadley fore-

A dead kangaroo on drought-affected plain in Australia ( Jeff Dixon)

WILDFIRES, DROUGHT, AND FLOODS INCREASE IN AUSTRALIA

Australia was in serious or severe drought. In some areas, the drought

in a century. In 1900, the number of “tropical nights” with minimum

PERSONAL STORIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

email as well as the oral history of traveling hunters, weather watchers

2003—not an unusual event in more temperate latitudes but quite a

Changes in albedo (Latin for “whiteness”) are among the factors

A “drunken forest,” in Alaska, where trees grow at strange angles because

SPRUCE BEETLE OUTBREAKS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA

The six-legged spruce beetle, which is about a quarter-inch long, takes

A spruce bark beetle ( Jeff Dixon)

SHISHMAREF, ALASKA IS WASHING INTO THE SEA

of poor people. Half-torn rooms with few luxuries. A few photographs,

By the fall of 2004, Shismaref’s beaches retreated still further during

ICE MELT IN GREENLAND

(Chylek et al., 2004, 201). In some places, however, coastal thinning of

A polar bear ( Jeff Dixon)