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Dr. Yashpal Singh Raghav Jazan University
Dr. Yashpal Singh Raghav Jazan University
A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to well defined results called outcomes.
Solution:
Die 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Die 2
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
Example: Find the sample space of drawing a card from an ordinary deck of cards.
Solution: There are four suits (hearts, diamonds, spades and clubs)
Example: Find the sample space of the gender of the children if a family has three children.
Classical Probability assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur.
Equally likely events are events that have the same probability to occur.
Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling a die, taking a card from a deck of cards.
Rules of probability
4. ∑ ( ) = 1, that is sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1
(a) Getting a 2 (b) Getting a number greater than 6 ( c) Getting an odd number (d) Getting a 4 or an odd
number (e) Getting a number less than 7 (f) Getting a number greater than or equal to 3 (g) Getting a
number greater than 2 and an even number.
Solution:
% &
(e) P(Getting a number less than 7) = = 1 (f) P(Getting a number greater than or equal to 3) = =
'
&
(g) P(Getting a number greater than 2 and an even number) = =
'
Example: If two dice are rolled one time, find the probability of getting these results.
(a) A sum of 9 (b) A sum of 7 or 11 (c) Doubles (d) A sum less than 9 (e) A sum greater than or equal to 10
Solution:
4 1
(a) P(A sum of 9) = 36 = 9 Sample space = {(3,6), (4,5),(5,4),(6,3)}
) &
(b) P(A sum of 7 or 11) = = Sample space = {(1,6),(2,5),(3,4), (4,3),(5,2),(6,1),(5,6),(6,5)}
' *
(e) P(A sum greater than or equal to 10) = = Sample space = { (4,6) (5,5) (5,6) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6) }
'
Example: If one card is drawn from a deck , find the probability of getting these results.
(a) A queen (b) A club (c) A queen of clubs (d) A 3 or an 8 (e) A 6 or a spade (f) A black king (g) A red card
and a seven (h) A diamond or a heart (i) A black card.
Solution:
%
(a) P(A queen) = = (There are 4 queen cards)
+& '
'
(b) P(A club) = = (There are 13 club cards)
+& %
) &
(d) P(A 3 or an 8) = = (There are 4 cards with number 3 and 4 cards with 8)
+& '
&
(f) P(A black king) = = (There are 2 black king cards)
+& &
&
(g) P(A red card and a seven) = = (There are 2 red cards with number 7)
+& &
&
(h) P(A diamond or a heart) = = (There are 13 cards of diamond and 13 cards of heart)
+& &
&
(i) P(A black card) = = (There are 26 black cards)
+& &
Example: If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three children are girls.
'
Solution: P(Two girls) = (There are 8 outcomes BBB,BBG,BGB,GBB, BGG,GBG,GGB and GGG and 3
)
ways to have 2 girls)
(a) All boys (b) All girls or all boys (c) Exactly two boys or two girls (d) At least one child of each gender
1 2 6 3
Solution: (a) P(All boys ) = (b) P(All boys or all girls) = (c) P(Exactly two boys or two girls) = =
8 8 8 4
6 3
(d) P(At least one child of each gender) = =
8 4
(a) getting a jack (b) getting a 6 of clubs (c) getting a three or a diamond (d) getting a 3 or a 6.
The complement of an event is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the outcomes of
event E. This is denoted by ( , ).
P(S) =1
Example: When a single die is rolled, find the probabilities of (a) getting an odd number (b) getting an even
number.
' 1 1
Solution: (a) P(Getting an odd number) = = (b) P(Getting an even number) = 1 − 2 = 2
&
Example: When two coins are tossed, find the probabilities of (a) getting all heads (b) getting at least one head.
1
Solution: (a) P(Getting all heads) = (b) P(E) = P(Getting at least one head) = 1 −
4
= 34
%
Example: In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A blood, 5 had type B blood and 2 had
type AB blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the probabilities.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
21 27 7
(a) P(Type O blood) = (b) P(Type A or B blood) = (c) P(Neither type A nor O blood) =
50 50 50
2 48
(d) P(Does not have Type AB blood) = 1 − = .
50 50
Example: Hospital records indicated that knee replacement patients stayed in the hospital for the number of
days shown in the distribution.
No.of Frequency
days
stayed
3 15
4 32
5 56
6 19
7 5
127
Find the probabilities.
(a) A patient stayed exactly 5 days (b) A patient stayed at most 4 days (c) A patient stayed less than 6 days
(d) A patient stayed at least 5 days .
56 47
Solution: (a) P(Exactly 5 days) = (b) P(At most 4 days) = (3 or 4)
127 127
103 80
(c) P(Less than 6 days) = (3 or 4 or 5) (d) P(At least 5 days) = (5 or 6 or 7)
127 127
(a) 60 or 70 miles per hour (b) greater than 65 km per hour (c) 70 miles per hour or less
19 31
Solution: (a) P(60 or 70 mph) = = 0.38 (b) P(greater than 65 mph) = = 0.62 ( 70 or 75)
50 50
37
(c) P(75 mph or less) = = 0.74
50
Two events are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time
Examples:
Getting a number less than 4 and getting a number greater than 4(mutually exclusive)
Getting an odd and getting a number less than 4(not mutually exclusive)
Addition Rules
1.If two events A and B are mutually exclusive , the probability that A or B will occur is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
2. If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive , the probability that A or B will occur is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Example: A single card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability of selecting the following.
Solution:
4 13 1
(a) P ( Selecting a 4) = , P ( Selecting a diamond) = , P ( Selecting a 4 and a diamond) =
52 52 52
4 13 1 16 4
P ( Selecting a 4 or a diamond) = + − = =
52 52 52 52 13
13 13
(b) P(A club) = , P(A diamond) = , P (A club and a diamond) = 0 ( mutually exclusive)
52 52
13 13 26 1
P (A club or a diamond) = + = =
52 52 52 2
4 26 2
(c) P(A jack) = , P(A black) = , P(A Jack and a black) =
52 52 52
4 26 2 28 7
P(A Jack and a black) = + − = =
52 52 52 52 13
Example: A city has 9 coffee shops: 3 Starbuck’s, 2 Caribou Coffees and 4 Crazy Mocho Coffees. If a person
selects one shop at random to buy a cup of coffee, find the probability that it either a Starbuck’s or Crazy
Mocho Coffees.
Solution:
Example: A corporate research and development centres for three local companies have the following number
of employees:
Alcoa 750
If a research employee is selected at random, find the probability that the employee is employed by U.S Steel or
Alcoa.
Example: At a particular school with 200 male students, 58 play foot ball, 40 play basket ball and 8 play both.
What is the probability that the randomly selected male student plays neither sport?
Solution:
P(foot ball or basket ball) = P(foot ball ) P(basket ball) P(foot ball and basket ball)
58 40 8 90 9
= + − = = = 0.45
200 200 200 200 20
Example: In a statistics class there are 18 juniors and 10 seniors : 6 of the seniors are females and 12 of the
juniors are males. If a student is selected at random. Find the probability of selecting the following.
Solution:
Senior 4 6 10
Junior 12 6 18
(a) P(A junior or a female ) = P(A junior ) + P(A female ) - P(A junior and a female )
18 12 6 24 6
= + − = =
28 28 28 28 7
(b) P(A senior or a female ) = P(A senior ) + P(A female ) - P(A senior and a female )
[Type text] Page 9
Dr. Yashpal Singh Raghav Jazan University
10 12 6 16 4
= + − = =
28 28 28 28 7
18 10 28
= + = =1
28 28 28
Example: In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses are 5 physicians: 7 nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff
person is selected at random, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or female.
Example: Rolling two dice, drawing a card and replacing it and drawing a second card.
MULTIPLICATION RULES
Example: A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 in the
die.
1 1 1
P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B) = . = (Events are independent)
2 6 12
Example: A card is drawn from a deck and replaced; then the second card is drawn. Find the probability of
getting a queen and then an ace.
Example: An urn contains 3 red balls,2 blue balls and 5 white balls.A ball is selected and its colour is noted.
Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its colour is noted. Find the probability of each of these.
(a) Selecting 2 blue balls (b) Selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball (c) Selecting 1 red ball and then 1
blue ball.
Solution:
2 2 1 2 5 1 3 2 3
(a) P(2 blue) = . = (b) P(1 blue and 1 white) = . = (c) P(1 red and 1blue) = . =
10 10 25 10 10 10 10 10 50
Example: In a pizza restaurant , 95% of the customers order pizza. If 65% of the customers order pizza and a
salad, find the probability that a customer who orders pizza will also order a salad.
Solution: P(order pizza) = 95% = 0.95, P(order pizza and salad) = 65% = 0.65
Example: If 2 cards are selected from a standard deck of 52 cards without replacement, find the probabilities.
(a) Both are spades (b) both are the same suit (c) Both are kings
Solution:
13 12 1
(a) P( Both are spades ) = . = (Events are dependent)
52 51 17
13 12 1
(b) P( Both are the same suit ) = . = (Events are dependent)
52 51 17
4 3 1
(c) P( Both are kings ) = . = (Events are dependent)
52 51 221
Example: A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If the
15
probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is and probability of selecting a black chip on the first
56
3
draw is , find the probability of selecting a white chip on the second draw ,given that the first chip selected
8
was a black chip.
Example: A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed forces should be permitted to
participate in combat.The result of the survey are shown.
8 18
P(Y and F) 8 4 P(M and N) 18 3
a. P(Y/F) = = 100 = = b. P(M/N) = = 100 = =
P(F) 50 50 25 P(N) 60 60 10
100 100
The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary rule to simplify solving probability problems
involving “at least”.
Example: A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.
Example: A game is played by drawing 4 cards from an ordinary deck and replacing each card after it is drawn.
Find the probability that at least one ace is drawn.
Example: It is reported 72% working women use computers at work. Choose 5 working women at random.
Find (i) the probability that at least one doesn’t use a computer at work
72
Solution: P(E) = = 0.72 P(,,,)= 1 - P(E) = 1 − 0.72 = 0.38
100
5
(i) P(At least 1 doesn’t use) = 1- P(All 5 use) = 1 − (0.72) = 1 − 0.193 = 0.807
5
(ii) P(All 5 use) = (0.72 ) = 0.193
Example: In 2006, 86% of US households had cable TV. Choose 3 households at random. Find the probability
that
a) None of the 3 households had cable TV b) All 3 households had Cable TV c) At least 1 of the 3 households
had Cable TV .
86
Solution: P(E) = = 0.86 P(,,,)= 1 - P(E) = 1 − 0.86 = 0.14
100
P(At least 1 of the 3 households had Cable TV) = 1- P(None of the 3 households had cable TV)
= 1- 0.003= 0.997.