Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial Management
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – I
Objectives
- Market participants,
- Because of time zone differences between countries across the globe, most
global transactions takes place in a few select currencies viz., the USD, EUR,
GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD, etc.
- because of the time zone differences, it’s a 24-hour market.
- Five day week & market players take advantage of the time zone differences.
- plays the role of a clearing house for settlement of global transactions., TARGET,
RTGS, CLS, CCIL, etc.
- network of players ., buyers and sellers spread over the world.
- Australia-Japan-Hongkong - Singapore-India-Europe-USA
Foreign Exchange Markets – I – functions of foreign exchange markets
Transfer Function:
- The basic function of the foreign exchange market is to facilitate the conversion
of one currency into another, i.e., to accomplish transfers of purchasing power
between two countries.
Credit Function:
- A second function of foreign exchange market is that it provides credit for foreign
trade.
- Bills of exchange, with maturity period of three months, are generally used for
international payments.
- Credit is required for this period in order to enable the importer to take
possession of goods, sell them and obtain money to pay off the bill.
Foreign Exchange Markets – I – functions of foreign exchange markets
Hedging Function:
- In a free exchange market when exchange rate, i.e., the price of one currency in
terms of another currency, change, there may be a gain or loss to the party
concerned.
Foreign Exchange Markets – I – functions of foreign exchange markets
Liquidity Function:
Arbitrage Function:
- Added to this, the markets across the globe are liberalized by the respective
home countries inducing the traders/speculators to take advantage of the
arbitrage opportunities available.
Foreign Exchange Markets – I – Participants
- Cash transaction – where delivery and settlement of the foreign currency against
the home currency or the intervening currency, takes place the same day.
(Merchant transactions)
- Tom Transaction - where delivery and settlement of the foreign currency against
the home currency or the intervening currency, takes place the next working day.
(time zone currencies)
- Spot transaction is the settlement of the foreign currency against the home
currency or the intervening currency, normally, taking place, on the second
following business day. (Inter-Bank transactions)
Foreign Exchange Markets – Types of transactions – Forward transactions
Futures Transaction similar to forward transactions and deals with the contracts in
the same manner as that of normal forward transactions but differs from the
transaction made in the forward contract on the following grounds:
(a) Futures are standardized transactions while forwards are over the counter
transactions.
(b) Futures are on the organized exchanges whereas forwards are generally with
Banks.
(c) Futures are based on the margins deposited by the Clients as deposits while
forwards are purely based on the limits set up by the Banks based on the
turnover and relationship of the Clients with the Bank.
Foreign Exchange Markets – Types of transactions - Options
ECBs/FCCBs
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International
Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Exchange rate quotations –
Cash/Tom/Spot/Forward – USD/INR
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Objectives
ECBs/FCCBs
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International
Financial Management
Foreign Exchange Markets – I
Determination of Exchange rates –
Spot & Forward
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Objectives
understanding
1. the international parity conditions integrate exchange rates with inflation and
interest rates.
2. the balance of payments approach
3. the asset market approach
It is important to remember that these three theories are not competing, but
rather are complementary to each other.
In addition to gaining an understanding of the basic theories, it is equally important
to gain a working knowledge of how the complexities of international political
economy; societal and economic infrastructures; and random political, economic,
or social events affect the exchange rate markets.
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Parity Conditions
1. Relative inflation rates
2. Relative interest rates
3. Forward exchange rates
4. Interest rate parity
- under a fixed exchange rate system, the government bears the responsibility to
ensure a BOP near zero.
- to ensure a fixed exchange rate, the government must intervene in the foreign
exchange market and buy or sell domestic currencies (or sell gold) to bring the
BOP back to near zero.
- it is very important for a government to maintain significant foreign exchange
reserve balances to allow it to intervene in the foreign exchange market
effectively.
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates – BOP approach
Managed Floats:
- countries operating with managed floats, while still relying on market conditions
for day-to-day exchange rate determination, often find it necessary to take action
to maintain their desired exchange rate values.
- they seek to alter the market’s valuation of a specific exchange rate by influencing
the motivators of market activity, rather through direct intervention in the foreign
exchange markets.
- the primary action taken by such governments is to change relative interest rates.
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates – Asset market approach
- The asset market approach assumes that whether foreigners are willing to hold
claims in monetary form depends on an extensive set of investment
considerations or drivers
- relative real interest rates
- prospects for economic growth
- capital market liquidity
- country’s economic and social infrastructure
- political safety
- corporate governance practices
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates – other factors
Inflation
- Inflation in the country would increase the domestic prices of the commodities.
With increase in prices exports may dwindle because the price may not be
competitive. With the decrease in exports the demand for the currency would
also decline; this in turn would result in the decline of external value of the
currency.
- It may be noted that unit is the relative rate of inflation in the two countries that
cause changes in exchange rates.
- If, for instance, both India and the USA experience 10% inflation, the exchange
rate between rupee and dollar will remain the same.
- If inflation in India is 15% and in the USA it is 10%, the increase in prices would be
higher in India than it is in the USA.
- Therefore, the rupee will depreciate in value relative to US dollar.
11
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates – other factors
Interest rate differentials
- Interest rates have great influence on the short term movement of capital.
- when the interest rates, it attracts short term funds from other centres. This
would increase the demand for the currency at the centre and hence its value.
- rising of interest rate may be adopted by a country due to tight money conditions
or as a deliberate attempt to attract foreign investment.
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates – demand & supply
- The higher the supply of foreign exchange in the country, the prices of the
foreign exchange comes down resulting in appreciation of the home currency.
- Higher the demand for foreign exchange in the country, the prices of the
foreign exchange goes up resulting in depreciation of the home currency.
…trend lines
- trend lines represent a consistent change in the prices and showing a trend in the market
movements.
- may be either a rising trend or a falling trend.
USD/INR rising trend line (INR depreciation) during the Lehmann Crisis
47.50
47.00
46.50
46.00
45.50
45.00
44.50
44.00
43.50
43.00
42.50
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International
Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Exchange rate quotations –Forward
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Currency Futures
Examples
• Calculate the premium for the three month future rate,
• if spot S (Re/$) = 45.6500/7000 and
• Three
• month futures rate is F (Re/$)= 45.5000/5500
Foreign Currency Futures
-
Foreign Currency Futures
Examples
• From the US $ based quotations for the new Zealand dollar (NZ$) and
the Indonesian rupiah, Calculate the cross rate for the NZ$ in terms of
the rupiah. Quotation are as follows.
• NZ$/US$ = 1.9552
• IR/US$ = 2054
Foreign Currency Futures
•
Fundamental No-Arbitrage Equation
(Theoretical Futures Price)
• In the case of currencies, the return takes the form of interest on the
foreign currency.
Foreign Currency Futures
Example
• Assume on march 10, 2018, six month annual interest rate was
9% p.a. on Indian rupees and US dollar six month rate was 1% per
annum. The spot Re/$ exchange rate was 65.3500. Using the above
information calculate the theoretical futures price on March 10, 2018,
expiring August 9, 2018.
Foreign Currency Futures
THANK YOU
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Options
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – Options
Objectives
Understanding Options
Options - meaning
- Foreign currency option is a contract giving the purchaser the right but
not the obligation to buy or sell a given amount of currency at a fixed
price per unit for a specified time period.
- The two basic options are the call & the put options.
- Under CALL, Buyer has the right to purchase the currency (generally
Imports) and under PUT, Buyer has the right to sell currency (generally
Exports).
- The buyer of the option is the holder while the seller is the writer.
Options – elements
- Every option has 3 different price elements.
- The premium is the cost of the value of the option paid at the time
the option is purchased.
- The actual spot rate in the market at the time the option is
purchased.
Options - types
- American options – exercised any time during the life of the option
contract.
(a) At the Money options where the strike price is equal to the spot
price.
(b) In the Money options where the strike price is more favorable to
the buyer of the option than the current market price.
(c) Out of Money options where the strike price is less favorable to the
buyer of the option than the current market rate.
Options - pricing
Pricing of an option combines 5 elements:
• When would the exporter want to buy option rather than a forward
?
When he feels that rupee could depreciate beyond the forward levels
And caps the downside
Payoff Matrix…
9
International
Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Options
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model
Example 2
• Calculate the value of three month at the money European call option
on stock index when the index is at 250, risk free interest rate is at
10% per annum, volatility of index is 18% per annum.
Tables for N(X)
When d takes positive value
•
Tables for N(X)
When d takes Negative value
•
THANK YOU
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International
Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
SWAP
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Swaps
2. Currency Swap
Interest Rate Swap
• Where cash flows at a fixed rate of interest are exchanged for those referenced to
a floating rate.
• An interest rate swap is a contractual agreement to exchange a series of cash
flows.
• One leg of cash flow is based on a fixed interest rate and the other leg is based on
a floating interest rate over a period of time.
• There is no exchange of principal. The size of the swap is referred to as the
notional amount and is the basis for calculating the cash flows.
Currency Swap
• Where cash flows in one currency are exchanged for cash flows in
another currency.
• Compute equal arbitrage profit share and cost of loan for each company.
•
Currency Swap
• The basic currency swap involves the exchange of fixed-for-fixed rate debt
service. Some reasons for using currency swaps are to obtain debt
financing in the swapped denomination at a cost savings and/or to hedge
long-term foreign exchange rate risk.
Example 1
• A U.S. MNC desires to finance a capital expenditure of its German
subsidiary. The project has an economic life of five years. The cost of the
project is €40,000,000. At the current exchange rate of $1.30/€1.00, the
parent firm could raise $52,000,000 in the U.S. capital market by issuing
five-year bonds at 8 percent.
• Suppose the U.S. parent can borrow €40,000,000 for a term of five years at
a fixed rate of 7 percent. The current normal borrowing rate for a well-
known firm of equivalent creditworthiness is 6 percent.
Example 1 continued
• Assume a German MNC of equivalent creditworthiness has a mirror-image financing need. It has
a U.S. subsidiary in need of $52,000,000 to finance a capital expenditure with an economic life of
five years. The German parent could raise €40,000,000 in the German bond market at a fixed rate
of 6 percent and convert the funds to dollars to finance the expenditure.
• The German parent could issue Eurodollar bonds, but since it is not well known its borrowing cost
would be, say, a fixed rate of 9 percent.
• Design a swap agreement. it is assumed that the bid and ask swap rates charged by the swap
bank are the same; that is, there is no bid-ask spread.
THANK YOU
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
krishnakumars@pes.edu
International Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Exchange rate numerical – Cash/Spot/Forwards – Cross Currency
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Objectives
Premium/Discount – if the swap points are in ascending order, the points denote
premium and if the Swap points are in descending order, the points denote discount
If the base currency is at a premium, add premium to the Spot rate to arrive at the
Forward rate.
If the base currency is at a discount, deduct discount from the Spot rate to arrive at
the Forward rate.
Calculation of Exchange rates
On the similar lines of EUR/USD., calculate GBP/INR rates given the following details :
USD/INR 74.3500/74.3600
Swap points 3 months 45/46., 6 months 166/169
GBP/USD Spot 1.3447/1.3457
Swap Points 3 months 27/25., 6 months 35/30.,
Calculate GBP/INR Value Cash., GBP/INR Value spot., GBP/INR value 3 months.,
GBP/INR value 6 months
International Financial Management
Hedging Foreign Exchange Exposure
Exchange rate numerical – Cash/Spot/Forwards – USD/INR
Krishna Kumar S
Department of Management Studies
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Objectives
Calculate purchase rate and the sale rate for the Customer assuming a margin of 5
paise for both purchase and sale transactions.
1.USD/INR Value Cash
2.USD/INR Value 1 month
3.USD/INR value 6 months
4.USD/INR value 12 months
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Solution : (1) - cash rates
Inter-Bank Spot Buy 74.3500 Spot Sell 74.3600
Deduct C/S 0.0300 Deduct C/S 0.0200
(Deduct Max for Purchase/Min for Sale).
Inter-Bank Cash 74.3200 74.3400
Bank’s margin 0.0500 0.0500
(Deduct margin for Purchase/Add margin for sale)
Customer’s rate 74.2700 74.3900
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates
Solution : (2) - 1 Month forward rate
Inter-Bank Spot Buy 74.3500 Spot Sell 74.3600
+ 1 month premium 0.1900 0.2100
(Premium is added for Purchase & for Sale).
Inter-Bank Forward 74.5400 74.5700
Bank’s margin 0.0500 0.0500
(Deduct margin for Purchase/Add margin for sale)
Customer’s rate 74.4900 74.6200
Foreign Exchange Markets – determination of exchange rates