TODAY'S PAPER | DECEMBER 02, 2021

Hybrid warfare
Munir Akram | Published December 9, 2018

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

THE 2018 IDEAS Expo in Karachi featured a high-level seminar on hybrid warfare. This
was a timely recognition that threats to national security can and do assume complex
forms.

For over 60 years, nuclear weapons have deterred a major conflict between nuclear-armed
states, and, because of the global revulsion against the use of nuclear weapons, the nuclear
powers have been also unable to realise offensive objectives through nuclear coercion, even
against non-nuclear weapon states. Thus, most conflicts are in the form of conventional
military interventions against smaller or weaker states, sub-conventional (guerrilla or
irregular) conflicts or ‘hybrid warfare’.

Western analysts have termed the comprehensive approach employed by Russia in Ukraine
(encompassing narrative control, cyberattacks, use of anonymous militias and irregular
forces, clandestine supplies and diplomatic support) as “hybrid warfare”. The Russians refer
to it as the ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ (after the Russian military chief). This form of warfare is also
called: asymmetrical, non-conventional, gray zone conflict, ‘new generation warfare’, ‘whole
of government’ approach and so on. It is emerging as the preferred modality in today’s
contests between the great powers.

Often, hybrid war may not be a war at all. The objective may not be to secure an adversary’s
immediate defeat, but to erode its morale; isolate it; ‘soften’ it up before a conflict; deflect it
from pursuing unacceptable military or political objectives; disrupt its communications,
command and control and/or important infrastructure; impose economic pain to secure
adherence to political demands; delegitimise an adversary’s government; compromise its
leaders.

The objective may not be to secure an

adversary’s immediate defeat, but to erode
its morale.

The toolbox of instruments that can be used to wage such ‘hybrid’ warfare is rapidly
expanding and becoming more sophisticated: eg autonomous weapons, advanced cyber
programmes, social media, data mining, algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI), etc. By
2020, the ‘internet of things’ will reportedly connect 30 billion devices. Power will rest with
the people who control these devices.
Technology is progressively blurring the distinction between hybrid and conventional
warfare and increasing the incentives, opportunities and compulsions for the preemptive or
‘first-use’ of offensive action by adversaries eg to knock out an enemy’s command and control
through a cyber strike. Given the complexities of defence and offence in such complex
conflict, it will become increasingly difficult to prevent the escalation of hybrid wars to the
conventional and even the nuclear level.

Pakistan was the target of hybrid or indirect ‘war’ in 1971. New Delhi’s hybrid strategy
(promotion of Mujib’s six-point plan, the genocide and refugees narrative, training the Mukti
Bahini, the Indo-Soviet ‘Friendship Treaty’) all laid the ground for the coup de grâce of Indian
military intervention in East Pakistan.

Since then, Pakistan has been the target of multiple ‘hybrid’ campaigns. Exaggerated
proliferation concerns and coercive diplomacy were utilised to hold back Pakistan’s nuclear
and missile programmes. The legitimacy of the Kashmiri freedom struggle was eroded by its
projection as terrorism including through false-flag operations, infiltration of militant
Kashmiri groups and concerted propaganda. The onus for America’s colossal military and
political failure in Afghanistan was ascribed to alleged Afghan Taliban ‘safe havens’ in
Pakistan. The Pakistan Army and the ISI remain a special focus of propaganda and fake news.

Today, the hybrid war against Pakistan is focused on Balochistan, the former Fata region,
Gilgit-Baltistan and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Pakistan has developed credible capabilities to deter nuclear and conventional aggression.
However, it remains very vulnerable to hybrid warfare. Pakistan’s adversaries enjoy
considerable prowess in IT, cyber, media projection and narrative construction, including
‘fake news’, subversion and sabotage, and sponsorship of terrorism, including ‘false-flag’
operations.

The main modality of this ‘indirect war’ against Pakistan is the media, including social media.
Very few Indian media personalities enjoy the ‘freedom’ to be critical of their country or their
current government. Meanwhile, Pakistan print and electronic media speaks with many
voices. There is little space for pro-Pakistani narratives in the Western media. An army of
Indian trolls has been recruited to malign Pakistan on the internet.

There are numerous other ‘agents of influence’ who are used to develop and project an anti-
Pakistan narrative. Many foreign funded and directed non-governmental organisations have
been ubiquitous in developing negative critiques about Pakistan within Pakistan. Some
among our local elite are co-opted by these organisations through jobs, travel and other
perks. No wonder there has been such a hue and cry about the long overdue diligence
conducted recently by the government and the Foreign Office on these organisations.

The hybrid campaign incorporates some ethnic and religious groups. Foreign sponsorship of
the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan is well established. Some
others need to be subjected to close scrutiny.

Any foreign funding of any Pakistani organisation ought to be declared and officially
approved. Receipt of undeclared foreign payments should be a crime. This is an international
norm. (Surely, the Financial Action Task Force will approve.)

Pakistan’s agencies must be equipped with the most advanced surveillance and data
collection techniques to detect future Jadhevs or Osamas and neutralise any ‘black ops’, ‘false-
flag’ or infiltration operations planned by enemy agencies.
Pakistan must possess the cyber capability to defend its crucial command-and-control
systems and its industrial and transport infrastructure against enemy attack. But to deter
such attack, Pakistan must also have the capability for offensive cyber action.

The technologies for waging a “comprehensive” conflict and “new generation warfare” are
being actively developed by every significant State. Pakistan cannot afford to be left behind.
To acquire credible capacity to defend against and repel hybrid wars, Pakistan will need to
make dedicated efforts, comparable to those deployed to develop its nuclear and missile
programmes.

However, there are certain elements of such warfare (cyberattacks, autonomous weapons,
false-flag operations) which pose the threat of systemic and global disruption, destabilisation
and military escalation. Pakistan and other responsible nations should take an initiative in
relevant international forums to secure a global ban or restrictions on such dangerous
elements of hybrid warfare.

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

Published in Dawn, December 9th, 2018

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