Quarter 3: January- March 2021

Edited by Authors
Dr. Madina M. Guloba
The MedardEconomy
Ugandan Kakuru, Today
Dr. Ibrahim Kasirye
Regean Mugume,
Aida K. Nattabi,

Ugandan
Justine Luwedde,
Rehema Kahunde,

The
Blessing Atwine and
Enock W.N. Bulime

Economy Today
The “Ugandan Economy Today” is a quarterly review of the economic performance of Uganda. The publication presents a trend analysis of selected key indicators in the agricultural,
industrial, transport and communication sectors of the economy. It also highlights trends in major price indices such as inflation, exchange rates and interest rates. The policy section
reviews monetary and fiscal policy stances as well as international trade developments

Monetary policy
Treasury Bills
Private Sector UGX 17,911.9 to
Credit UGX 18,370.7
Exchange rates
UGX Sales
UGX 3,667 to UGX 3,692

International trade
Exports receipts 8%
Coffee export
receipts 26 %
Inflation
Core and headline Energy fuels & Food
inflation prices
0.2% 0.1%

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Agricultural
sector
Dry weather conditions
were experienced in most
bimodal-rainfall areas
during the quarter. At the same time, the
dry season that had started in the previous
quarter continued for the Karamoja sub-
region. Quarantines were imposed in the
western and some parts of the central cattle
corridors to limit Foot and Mouth disease
spread. The dry season and the limitations
on cattle movements affected household
incomes; however, most households were
food secure. Wholesale market prices around
Kampala for maize and beans were generally
THE REAL SECTOR
lower, while rice prices were high. Major
cross border activities increased, with leading
destinations for Ugandans food commodities
consistently being Kenya and South Sudan.
Energy
During the quarter, power tariffs
remained unchanged except for
commercial and large industrial
consumers. The period also saw energy
purchases and sales increase by 8.6 percent
and 14.4 percent, respectively, owing to
growth in power generation at Bujagali and
Isimba power dams. Additionally, petrol
prices fell from UGX3,812 per litre in January
and stagnated at UGX3,808 per litre for the
rest of the quarter, while diesel prices initially
declined in February but later rose by 0.7
percent in March.
Transport and
infrastructure
In the transport sector, air
arrivals and departures grew
by 32.4 percent and 36.8 percent between
January and March, respectively, due to
increased business activity. Further, Uganda
Airlines received a second Airbus A330
aircraft, bringing the total fleet of the national
carrier to six. The new aircraft is expected to
promote Uganda’s tourism and business in
the diaspora.

Quarter 1: January-March 2021 1


Telecommunication
sector
During the quarter under review,
the sector registered an increase
in telephone subscriptions of
about 590,000, resulting in a teledensity of
almost 7 lines for every 10 Ugandans. Total
LEADING PRICE INDICATORS
Inflation
Headline inflation increased
from 0.2 percent in January
but later stagnated at 0.3
percent in the last two months of the
quarter under review. The increase in
headline inflation is attributed to the rise in
core inflation, resulting from an increase in
services inflation. The quarterly average of
food and related items inflation and energy
fuels and utilities inflation increased in the
current quarter compared to the previous
quarter.
Exchange rates
During the quarter under
review, there was an
appreciation of the shilling
from UGX3,692 per USD in January to
UGX3,663 per USD in March. These
movements in the cost of the USD are
explained by the trends in the value of
exports. Both foreign currency sales and
purchases increased during the quarter
by USD151 million and USD158 million
respectively between February and March
2021, with a sharp rise in the post-election
period.
2 Quarter 3: January-March 2021
internet subscriptions grew slightly to 21.5
million in March 2021 from 21.4 million in
December 2020 despite the internet and
social media restrictions during the election
period. In the same period, mobile money
accounts grew to 30.5 million accounts by
the end of March 2021 from 28 million at
the end of December 2020.
Interest rates
Various interest rates
stagnated throughout the
quarter under review. However,
the Central Bank Rate, rediscount rate
and the bank rate to commercial banks
remained constant at 7 percent, 10 percent
and 11 percent, respectively, throughout
the quarter. However, average lending rates
fluctuated throughout the quarter while
monthly Treasury Bills yields registered a
persistent decrease throughout the quarter
under review.
Monetary Policy
Treasury Bills holdings
fluctuated slightly between
January and March, with
the highest value of UGX 6,075.6 billion
registered in February. Private Sector Credit
grew from an average of UGX 17,911.9
billion in the last quarter to UGX 18,370.7
billion in the current quarter – representing
a minimal increase of UGX 458.1 million.
Money supply exhibited slow growth and
eventually declined by 0.2 percent in
March.
International Trade
In the quarter under review,
export receipts increased by 8
The Ugandan Economy Today
percent between January and March 2021.
Compared to the previous quarter, the
value of imports reduced from USD 842.1
million to USD 722.2 million in the quarter
under review, mainly due to a decline in
both oil and non-oil import volumes. The
quarter under review also registered a
reduction in the trade deficit by 16 percent.
Fiscal operations
The quarter under review
registered deteriorations
in the revenue and
grants collections, expenditures, and net
lending compared to the previous quarter.
Revenues and grants were reduced from
UGX 5,509 billion (October–December) to
UGX 4,751 billion (January–March) due
to noticeable shortfalls in domestic taxes
and grants. Conversely, expenditures and
net lending decreased by UGX 188 billion
between quarters [(October–December)
and (January–March)], despite the
continued efforts to bolster economic
recovery and support to the health sector.
In addition, though the actual spending in
this quarter was reduced, the fiscal deficit
increased by UGX 570 billion compared to
the previous quarter.
 The Ugandan Economy Today

PERFORMANCE OF THE REAL SECTOR

The Agricultural sector
Areas with bimodal seasons experienced
mainly dry weather conditions during the
quarter under review. This enabled most
households to harvest crops and prepare
and plough-land in preparation for the
first cropping season. During this quarter,
the excellent bumper harvest improved
household food security and incomes that
resulted from the crop sales and reduced
market food prices due to increased supply
of food staples.
Regarding livestock, the dry season
experienced reduced pasture and available
water during the quarter, affecting animal
weight and milk production. Relatedly,
quarantines were imposed in the western
cattle corridor and some parts of the
central region to limit the spread of
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), initially
reported in December 2020. This affected
the incomes of most livestock dependent
households as animal markets were closed
due to prohibited animal movements and
sales.
the quarter under review compared to the
previous quarter with observable monthly
price fluctuations (Figure 1). For instance,
the price of maize was USD 177.4/MT in
the current quarter and USD 196.6/MT in
the previous quarter, representing a 9.8
percent decline. Similarly, the price of rice
was USD 629.5/MT in the current quarter
and USD 632.2 in the previous quarter. The
low prices were attributed to the increased
supply of foodstuffs from the second
season harvests and Kenya’s ban on maize
imports due to safety concerns in March.
Conversely, the wholesale market price of
beans in Kampala was generally higher
in the current quarter, at USD 671.5/MT,
than in the previous quarter, at USD 622.4,
Figure 1 Wholesale monthly commodity prices in Kampala market (USD/
MT): Oct’20–Mar’21
representing a 7.9 percent increase.
Regarding cross border trade, South
Sudan and Kenya continue to be the main
export destinations for Uganda’s cereal
commodities (Table 1). Generally, all
commodities recorded an increase in cross
border trade by value. Notably, the value
of maize traded with Kenya increased from
USD 13.8 million in the previous quarter
to USD 16.7 million in the current quarter,
representing a 21.3 percent increment. The
reduction in the value of maize exported to
South Sudan is a result of a price decline.
The export value increased as well, other
than rice, during the quarter under review
for other commodities.

In the Karamoja sub-region, the dry

spell observed since November 2020
had started to affect water availability
leading to poor livestock production–a
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from FAO - (GIEWS), 2021
significant livelihood activity. This also
affected poor households that experienced
Table 1 Cross border trade values selected commodities between
food insecurity. Many households sold Uganda and her neighbours in 2020 (USD)
a significant portion of their harvests to
meet their non-food needs and pay debts Value (,000)
From To Commodity
incurred during the extended lean season Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20 Jan-Mar’21
of 2020. There were reported incidents of South Sudan 6,280 7,733 7,646
Uganda Maize
insecurity involving inter-communal and Kenya 12,866 13,807 16,741
cross-border conflict because of the theft South Sudan 4,416 9,509 15,283
of livestock in Moroto, Napak, Kotido and Uganda Kenya Sorghum 796 1,250 6,032
Kaabong districts. The conflicts hindered Rwanda 0.6 0.9 0.8
households from accessing usual dry Uganda South Sudan Rice 19,170 19,937 18,699
season grazing areas and watering points. South Sudan 31,376 11,943 18,850
Uganda Kenya Beans 5,705 53,132 36,265
Wholesale market prices around Kampala DRC 2.3 1.9 2.0
for major select food commodities were Source: EPRC’s computation using data from FEWS Net and price data from GIEWS (FAO, 2021).
generally lower for maize and rice during

Quarter 1: January-March 2021 3

 The Ugandan Economy Today

Energy, Transport, and slightly increased by 0.7 kWh over the UGX3,370 per litre in December 2020 to
same period. The reduction in power tariffs UGX3,346 per litre in January 2021 but
Communication sector for commercial and medium industrial slightly increased by 0.7 percent in March.
consumers was driven by the need to The decline in prices could be explained
Energy sector protect the Small and Medium Enterprises by the appreciation of the Uganda shilling
Power tariffs for most consumer categories from the effects of the pandemic and against the dollar during the quarter. On the
other than commercial, medium and associated containment measures. contrary, Kerosene (BIK) prices registered a
large industrial customers have remained slight increase by UGX 5 per litre during the
stagnant from April 2020 to March 2021 In the quarter under review, petroleum quarter between January and March 2021.
(Table 2). Specifically, power tariffs fuel prices continued to decline from the
for commercial and medium industrial previous quarter. Notably, petrol (PMK) During the quarter, energy purchases and
consumer categories were reduced by 0.7 prices fell from UGX3,812 per litre in sales first declined in February but after
Kwh and 7.7 Kwh between the previous January and stagnated at UGX3,808 per that increased by March 2021 (Figure
and current quarters. On the contrary, litre for the rest of the quarter (Figure 2). 3). For example, purchases dropped by
tariffs for large industrial consumers Similarly, Diesel (AG) prices declined from 12MW between January and February

Table 2 Average quarterly retail power tariffs by consumer category (UGX): April 2020–March 2021
Consumer category April-June ‘20 July-Sept ‘20 Oct-Dec 20’ Jan-Mar ‘21
Domestic customers (First 15kwh) 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0
Domestic customers (more than 15kwh) 750.9 750.9 750.9 750.9
Commercial customers 645.6 645.3 645.6 644.3
Medium industrial customers 570.9 570.9 570.9 563.2
Large industrial customers 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.8
Extra-large industrial consumers 301.7 301.5 301.7 301.7
Street lighting 370.0 370.0 370.0 370.0
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2021).

Figure 2 Monthly fuel prices (UGX/Litre): October 2020 – March 2021

EPRC’s construction using data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2021).

Figure 3 Energy purchases, sales and losses in Megawatt hour (MWh), October 2020 – March 2021

Source: EPRC’s construction using data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2021).

4 Quarter 3: January-March 2021

 The Ugandan Economy Today

but then increased by 46MW by March, by rail grew throughout the quarter from Communication sector
while sales declined and increased by the 14,000 passengers in January to 31,000 By the end of the quarter under review,
same margins over the review period. The passengers by March, largely due to the the telecommunication subsector had
increase in the last month is attributed to complete opening of the railway transport registered a net telephone subscription of
increased power generation from Isimba from the COVID-19 lockdown. 590,000 additions leading to an increase
and Bujagali power dams. Energy exports in total telephone subscriptions from 27.7
steadily rose throughout the quarter from Relatedly, Uganda Airlines also received million in December 2020 to 28.3 million
24MW in January to 31MW in March, her second Airbus A330 aircraft, bringing by the end of March 2021. The increase
primarily due to increased exports to Kenya the total fleet of the national carrier to translates into a penetration rate of almost
and Tanzania. six. The new airbuses are intended to 7 lines for every 10 Ugandans (Table 4).
make flights to the longer routes such as
Transport sector China, the United Kingdom and the United Despite the internet and social media
Generally, the number of passengers States of America to promote business and restrictions at the beginning of the
increased irrespective of travel mode. tourism in Uganda. quarter, internet subscriptions increased
Specifically, concerning air transport, by 120,000 new subscriptions from 21.4
arrivals and departures increased by Concerning road transport, the government million in December 2020 to 21.6 million
32.4 percent and 36.8 percent between announced a transition in issuing driving by the end of the quarter under review.
January and March, respectively (Table 3). permits from Uganda Computerized Driving Relatedly, Lyca mobile, a UK mobile
However, cargo transport by air reduced System to the Uganda Driving Licenses virtual network operator, was awarded a
substantially from 22,000 tonnes in System. This change was due to the telecom operator license to deploy national
December 2020 to 3,000 tonnes in January contract expiry of the South African based telecommunications infrastructure and
2021, equivalent to an 86.4 percent company Face Technologies in February services to boost 4G connectivity beyond
decline. This is partly attributed to a fall 2021. The Uganda Driving Licenses System Uganda.
in fresh fruits and vegetable exports and is a joint venture between Uganda Printing
cut flowers that are highly perishable. In and Publishing Company (UPPC) and From Table 4, the registration of mobile
contrast, passenger and cargo transport Veridos GmbH, a German firm. money wallets increased from 28 million in

Table 3 Table 3: Air and railway transport usage: October 2020 – March 2021
Transport Category Oct-20 Nov-21 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Air Enplaned (passengers) 15,535 21,656 30,566 29,409 31,084 38,946
Deplaned (passengers) 23,921 26,408 33,579 24,095 26,904 32,958
Imports (‘000’ Tonnes) 27 28 36 2 2 2
Exports (‘000’ Tonnes) 10 20 22 3 3 4
Railway Passengers ‘000’ 0 20 13 14 26 31
Cargo (‘000’ Tonnes) 23,253 23,776 19,546 16,577 12,726 20380
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2021).

Table 4 Quarterly performance in the communication’s sector

Communication Sector Category Jul – Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20 Jan – Mar’21
Telephone subscription and Tel- Fixed line subscribers (000s) 88.9 90.8 97
density Mobile line subscribers (000s) 26,437 27,689 28,272
Total subscribers (000s) 26,437 27,779 28,369
Telephone subscription (Per 100 subscribers 64 67 69
Internet subscription and Tel-density Fixed internet subscribers (000s) 30.5 34.6 34.8
Mobile internet subscribers (000s) 20,117 21,408 21,529
Total internet subscribers (000s) 20,147 21,443 21,564
Internet connection per 100 subscribers 48 52 51
Mobile financial services Mobile money registration (000s) 27,720 28,045 30,546
Active mobile money wallets (000s) 22,433 22,522 20,298
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Uganda Communications Commission (2021).

Quarter 1: January-March 2021 5

 The Ugandan Economy Today

the quarter ending December 2020 to 30.5
million at the end of March 2021. On the
other hand, active mobile money accounts
declined from 22.5 million by the end of
December 2020 to 20.3 million by the end
of March. The decline is attributed to the
cleaning of mobile money account registers
by Mobile Network Operators (MNO).
At the beginning of the quarter under review,
print giants such as New Vision and Daily
monitor launched a paid online e-paper
version. In addition, the quarter saw an
introduction of live online broadcasts on
social media for political actors to reach
their voters. A local radio station, Radio
One FM 90 has been carried to the DStv
audio channel bouquet. Radio One FM 90
can now be accessed on Channel 897 on
all Multichoice decoders. This presents
a new alternative distribution channel for
domestic FM Stations.
prices. On the contrary, energy fuels and changes in foreign currency inflows from
utilities inflation registered a decline in the exports sector.
February by 0.1 percent, attributed mainly
to a decrease in prices of solid fuels. Foreign exchange purchases and sales
continued to rise throughout the quarter
Foreign Exchange Rates by USD 151 million and USD158 million,
Throughout the quarter under review, the respectively, between February and March
mid-rate exchange rate was on a downward 2021. The sharp increase was attributed
trend from a sharp increase observed to the resumption of normal business
between December 2020 and January 2021 activities in the post-election period. This
from UGX 3,667 per USD to UGX 3,692 per could be explained by the market correction
USD respectively to UGX 3,663 per USD by measures taken by the central bank to
March (Figure 4). The movements in the stabilise the economy following the end of
exchange rate could be attributed to the the election period in January 2021.
Figure 4 Selected foreign exchange market indicators, January-March 2021

LEADING PRICE
INDICATORS

Inflation Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Bank of Uganda (2021).
Headline inflation increased from 0.2
percent in January to 0.3 percent in the last Table 6 Selected key policy rates, October 2020 – March 2021
two months of the quarter under review
Indicator Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb’21 Mar’21
(Table 5). This explains the quarterly
Central Bank Rate 7 7 7 7 7 7
average inflation rise from 0.0 percent in
the previous quarter to 0.3 in the current Rediscount rate 10 10 10 10 10 10
quarter. Regarding the non-core inflation Bank rate 11 11 11 11 11 11
indicators, quarterly average food crops Lending rates 19.3 19.6 17.1 17.4 19.9 18.6
and related items and energy fuel and Treasury Bill Yields
utilities inflation increased in the current 91-day TB yield 7.3 7.6 8.3 8.6 7.8 7.2
quarter compared to the previous quarter. 182-day TB yield 9.4 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.9 10.4
The increase in the average food crops 364-day TB yield 12.2 12.8 13.5 13.8 12.3 11.7
and related items inflation in the current Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Bank of Uganda (2021).

quarter was due to a rise in vegetable Interest rates

Table 5 Monthly inflation rates, October 2021 - March 2021 There were no changes in the various
interest rates during the quarter under
Category Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb’21 Mar’21 review except the lending rates (Table 6).
All Items Index (Headline) 0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 As in the previous quarter, the Central
Core inflation 0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 Bank Rate (CBR), rediscount rate, and
Non-Core commercial banks’ bank rate remained
Food crops and Related Items 1.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.1 2.2 1.5 at 7 percent, 10 percent, and 11 percent,
Energy Fuel and Utilities 0.4 -0.6 -2.4 2.8 -0.1 1.0 respectively. The decline in lending rates is
due to the monetary policy interventions by
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2021).

6 Quarter 3: January-March 2021

 The Ugandan Economy Today

the central bank. reported in February – UGX 22,866.1 International Trade

Regarding the monthly Treasury Bills (TB),
the average quarterly yields indicate an
increase in the 91 and 182-day TBs, while
the monthly yields registered a continuous
decrease during the quarter. The decline
in the interest rates on TB is attributed
to the increased demand for government
securities caused by the excess liquidity in
the money market.
Monetary Policy
During the quarter under review, TBs
fluctuated slightly between January and
March, with the highest value of UGX
6,075.6 billion registered in February
(Table 7). This can be attributed to the six
TBs auctions held during the quarter to
raise government expenditures and debt
financing funds.
billion but declined by 0.17 percent to UGX
22,827.6 billion in March. Notably, while
private demand deposits and private time
and savings deposits continued to grow
during the quarter, money in circulation
declined, likely due to a drop in spending
at the end of the election cycle. The
improved performance of PSC is indicative
of a slow economic recovery, albeit signs of
increasing confidence in the private sector
by lenders and rising issuance of credit
during the quarter.
Figure 4 Imports and exports October 2020 – March 2021
In the quarter under review, export receipts
increased by 8 percent from USD 410.4
million in January to USD 444.1 million
in March (Table 8). The increase was
primarily driven by better earnings from
coffee, which increased by 26 percent from
USD 39.7 million in January 2021 to USD
53.5 million in March 2021. A comparison
to the last quarter indicates a 2.2 percent
increment from USD 424.1 million to USD
433.8 million in the quarter under review.

Private Sector Credit (PSC) increased

from an average of UGX 17,911.9 billion
the last quarter to UGX 18,370.7 billion,
a minimal increase of UGX 458.1 million.
Besides, Money Supply (M2) exhibited
slow growth and eventual decline at the Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Bank of Uganda (2021).
end of the quarter. The highest M2 was
Compared to the previous quarter, the value
Table 7 Select fiscal and monetary indicators: October 2020- March 2021 of imports reduced by 16 percent from
USD 842.1 million to USD 722.2 million
Indicator (UGX billions) Oct’20 Nov’20 Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb’21 Mar’21
in the quarter under review, mainly due
Money Supply M2 22,347 22,585 22,956 22,782.6 22,866.1 22,827.6
to a decline in both oil and non-oil import
BoU Claims on Government 8,345 9,013 7,767 8,868.9 9,600.4 9,734.9
volumes. The quarter under review also
Private Sector Credit 17,699 17,787 18,249 18,315.6 18,310.0 18,486.6
registered a reduction in the trade deficit to
Treasury Bill Holdings 5,687 5,830 6,204 6,016.9 6,075.6 6,027.9
USD 288.4 million in March 2021 compared
Stock of Bonds 15,600 16,328 17,500 17,447.2 18,153.3 18,583.6 to USD 418.0 million in December 2020,
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Bank of Uganda (2021).
owing to the decline in government imports
Table 8 Exports of select commodities by value in USD Million from Oct during the period (Figure 4).
’20 - Mar ‘21
Description Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Fiscal operations
Total Exports 396.31 420.58 455.52 410.40 447.05 454.48 Revenues and grants for the quarter under
Coffee 38.61 38.29 37.78 39.73 50.55 53.52 review were reduced by UGX 758 billion from
Tea 7.59 7.96 7.32 6.56 7.23 7.10 the previous quarter (Table 9). In addition,
Cocoa beans 7.65 7.66 10.95 10.09 12.47 13.27 the actual revenue and grants performed
Sugar 4.50 3.51 4.02 9.23 7.83 7.89 at 82 percent against the target for the
Beans 4.59 9.46 11.78 5.17 5.15 5.26 quarter, mainly attributed to shortfalls in
Flowers 4.16 3.41 4.05 4.48 6.28 5.96 the collections on domestic taxes (direct
ICBT Exports 33.55 38.69 39.89 42.84 33.90 38.77 and indirect taxes), especially on Pay as You
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from Bank of Uganda (2021).
Earn, Corporation tax and Value Added Tax.

Quarter 1: January-March 2021 7

 The Ugandan Economy Today

The underperformance is partly attributed
to the increased uncertainty due to national
elections held in January and February
2021, the associated post-election fears
and the internet shutdown. In addition,
the lingering effects of the COVID-19
pandemic increased the hardships faced
by business enterprises. Notably, there
was an improvement in the performance of
grants – with grants increasing from UGX
194 billion in the previous quarter to UGX
247 billion in the current quarter. Despite
the increase in grants, their performance
was below average.
Despite the government’s continued efforts
to bolster economic recovery, expenditure
and lending for this quarter slightly declined
compared to the previous quarter. Table
10 shows that the actual spending and
lending reduced by UGX 188 billion from
UGX 8,166 billion for October–December
2020 to UGX 7,978 billion for January–
March 2021. The decline is mainly due
to the underperformance of the external
development expenditures, which has
been a recurrent occurrence exacerbated
by the pandemic. Despite the reduction
in spending, the budget performance for
the quarter was at 93 percent compared
to 82 percent for the previous quarter.
In particular, the current expenditures
performed at 100.2 percent against the
target for the quarter, with supplementary
budgets passed for the health sector.
Other noticeable shortfalls in the budget
performance were observed for the net
lending or repayments (5.6 percent) and
domestic arrears repayment (62.1 percent)
due to increasing fiscal pressure.
Despite the reduction in the actual spending
in this quarter, the fiscal deficit increased
by UGX 570 billion between the October-
December and January-March quarters
(Table 10). Notably, the actual fiscal deficit
for this quarter was higher (UGX 3,227
billion) than the planned fiscal deficit (UGX
2,795 billion). The deterioration in the fiscal
deficit could be attributed to the revenue
shortfalls and expenditure overruns
(supplementary budgets) to revive the
economy from the economic downturn and
contain the pandemic.

Table 9 Uganda’s revenues quarterly performance (UGX Billion) for

Oct 2020–March 2021
Oct-Dec Jan Feb March January–March
Actual Target Performance, %
Revenue and 5,509 1,445 1,636 1,670 4,751 5,797
grants 82.0
Revenues 5,315 1,442 1,415 1,647 4,504 5,289 85.2
Tax 5,055 1,391 1,339 1,520 4,250 4,881 87.1
Non-tax 260 51 76 127 254 407 62.3
Grants 194 3 221 23 247 508 48.6
Budget support 0 0 21 0 21 109 19.6
Project Support 194 3 200 23 225 399 56.5
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from MoFPED (2020/21).

Table 10 Uganda’s expenditure performance (UGX Billion), October

2020–March 2021
Oct-Dec, 2020 January–March 2021
 
Actual Target Performance, %
Expenditures and Lending 8,166 7,978 8,592 92.8
Current expenditures 4,540 4,387 4,379 100.2
Wages and salaries 1,340 1,284 1,319 97.3
Interest payments 865 1,086 1,092 99.4
o/w domestic 618 839 839 100.0
o/w external 247 247 254 97.4
Other recurrent expenditure 2,335 2,018 1,968 102.5
Development expenditures 3,317 3,509 3,910 89.7
Domestic 2,640 2,434 1,725 141.1
External 676 1,075 2,185 49.2
Net lending/repayments 146 10 188 5.6
Domestic arrears repayment 297 71 114 62.1
Overall fiscal deficit -2,657 -3,227 -2,795 115.4
Source: EPRC’s construction using data from MoFPED (2020/21).

8 Quarter 3: January-March 2021