Jahangirnagar University

Department/Institute: Department of Public Health and Informatics.

Honours 3rd year Final Examination-2019

Assignment for Final Examination

Course No.# PHI 307

Course Title# Food Contamination,

Adulteration and Safety.

Name of the Student: Rakib Hossain

Class Roll No. # 1648

Examination Roll No. # 172106

Registration No. # 45404

Academic Session # 2016-2017

Total number of written pages in the assignment # 16

Date of Submission: 27th, July 2021

Instructions:
1. Don’t copy from other’s assignment. Copying from others will be punished
severely.
2. The student must submit the assignment online (Google
classroom/email/google form etc.) as the course-teacher prescribes.
3. You must use your name# your EXAM ID only for naming your submitted
file.

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 Table of Contents

1. Introduction: ............................................................................................................................ 4

2. Concept of Climate Change:.................................................................................................... 4

2.1. Concept of Food Production and Availability: .................................................................. 6

3. Climate Change Impacts on Food Production ......................................................................... 7

4. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Availability. ............................................ 11

5. Climate Change and Food Production: Bangladesh Perspective........................................... 12

6. Controlling The Impact of Climate Change on Food Production and Availability: ............. 13

7. Conclusion: ............................................................................................................................ 15

References ..................................................................................................................................... 15

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS’ EFFECT ON
FOOD PRODUCTION AND AVAILABILITY.

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1. Introduction:

The world population is expected to grow to almost 10 billion by 2050. With 3.4 billion more
mouths to feed, and the growing desire for meat and dairy, global demand for food could increase
by between 59 and 98 percent. This means that agriculture around the world needs to step up
production and increase yields. But scientists say that the impacts of climate change—higher
temperatures, extreme weather, drought, increasing levels of carbon dioxide and sea level rise—
threaten to decrease the quantity and jeopardize the quality of our food supplies and availability.
The changing climate is having far reaching impacts on agricultural production, which are likely
to challenge food security and availability of food in the future.

2. Concept of Climate Change:

According to WMO (World Meteorological Organization), “Climate is the average weather

conditions for a particular location and over a long period of time.” The classical period used for
describing a climate is 30 years, as defined by WMO.

Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define
Earth’s local, regional, and global climates.

Climate change may occur due to two factors as follows,

a) Natural Factors: Natural processes can also contribute to climate change, including
o Internal variability (e.g., cyclical ocean patterns like El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation).
o External forcing (e.g., volcanic activity, changes in the Sun’s energy output, variations
in Earth’s orbit).
b) Anthropological Factors:
o Burning of fossil fuels.
o Deforestation.
o Changing in land use due to:
(i) Agriculture and cattle farming.

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 (ii) Industrial activities and urbanization.

Figure 2: Natural factors influencing climate change.

Figure 1: Causes of Climate Change.

Figure 3: Graph shows that climate change occurs mainly due to anthropogenic factors.

Climate change may cause weather patterns to be less predictable. These unexpected weather
patterns can make it difficult to maintain and grow crops in regions that rely on farming because
expected temperature and rainfall levels can no longer be relied on. Climate change has also related
to other damaging weather events such as more frequent and more intense hurricanes, floods,
downpours, and winter storms.

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 Figure 4: Overall impact of climate change.

2.1. Concept of Food Production and Availability:

Food production is all about preparing food, in which raw materials are converted into ready-
made food products for human use either in the home or in the food processing industries.
Agriculture is the process of producing food, feed, fiber, and many other desired products by the
cultivation of certain plants and the raising of domesticated animals (livestock).

Food production is the base for food security. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
defines food security as a ‘‘situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical,
social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’’

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This definition comprises four key dimensions of food supplies: Availability, Stability, Access,
and Utilization.

The first dimension, Availability of sufficient food implies that the overall ability of the
agricultural system to meet food demand. Its subdimensions include the agro-climatic
fundamentals of crop and pasture production and the entire range of socio-economic and cultural
factors that determine where and how farmers perform in response to markets.

3. Climate Change Impacts on Food Production

Climate change is among the greatest threats of our generation—and of generations to come—to
public health, ecosystems, and the economy. Agriculture is an important sector for world’s most
of the countries. Changes in the world's climate will bring major shifts in food production. The
crops, livestock, seafood produced, and other agriculture related sources controls the economic
and Health status for many countries around the globe.

Due to the enormous uncertainties surrounding global climate change, estimates of cropland
reductions vary widely--from 10 to 50 percent.

Figure 5: Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century.

So, this is clear that global warming and climate change is likely to alter production of rice, wheat,
corn, soybeans, and potatoes--staples for billions of people and major food crops across the globe.
The followings are some impacts of climate change on food production:

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 A) Climate Change Impacts on Crops Production:
o Higher CO2 Levels:
a) Higher CO2 levels can affect crop yields. Some laboratory experiments suggest that
elevated CO2 levels can increase plant growth. However, other factors, such as
changing temperatures, ozone, and water and nutrient constraints, may counteract
these potential increases in yield.
b) Elevated CO2 has been associated with reduced protein and nitrogen content in
alfalfa and soybean plants, resulting in a loss of quality. Reduced grain and forage
quality can reduce the ability of pasture and rangeland to support grazing livestock.

Figure 6: Projected losses in food production due to climate change by 2080 in corporating carbon
fertilization effect.

o More Extreme Temperature:

a) Moderate local warming (1-3˚C) means slightly increased yields in mid- to high-
latitudes, depending on crop. Even small local temperature increases (1- 2˚C) would
decrease yields in low-latitudes, especially in tropical and seasonally dry areas, which
would increase risk of hunger. Further warming of >3˚C has increasingly negative
impacts; global food production is projected to decrease.

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 b) More extreme temperature and precipitation can prevent crops from growing.
Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields.
c) Projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia but
could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by mid-21st century. Taken
together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanization,
the risk of hunger projected to remain very high in several Asian developing
countries.

Figure 7: Decrease in crop yields due to unusual climate events.

Source: USGCRP (2009)

o Droughts:
a) Dealing with drought could become a challenge in areas where rising summer
temperatures cause soils to become drier. Although increased irrigation might be
possible in some places, in other places water supplies may also be reduced, leaving
less water available for irrigation when more is needed.

o Weeds and Pests Manifestations:

a) Many weeds, pests, and fungi thrive under warmer temperatures, wetter climates,
and increased CO2 levels. The ranges and distribution of weeds and pests are likely
to increase with climate change. This could cause new problems for farmers' crops
previously unexposed to these species.

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 o Reduced Nutritional Food Values:
a) Though rising CO2 can stimulate plant growth, it also reduces the nutritional value
of most food crops. Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reduce the
concentrations of protein and essential minerals in most plant species, including
wheat, soybeans, and rice. This direct effect of rising CO2 on the nutritional value
of crops represents a potential threat to human health. Human health is also
threatened by increased pesticide use due to increased pest pressures and reductions
in the efficacy of pesticides.
B) Climate Change Impacts on Live Stocks:
o Heat waves, which are projected to increase under climate change, could directly threaten
livestock. Heat stress affects animals both directly and indirectly. Over time, heat stress
can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk production.
o Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces the amount of quality
forage available to grazing livestock. Some areas could experience longer, more intense
droughts, resulting from higher summer temperatures and reduced precipitation. For
animals that rely on grain, changes in crop production due to drought could also become a
problem.
o Climate change may increase the prevalence of parasites and diseases that affect livestock.
The earlier onset of spring and warmer winters could allow some parasites and pathogens
to survive more easily. In areas with increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens could
thrive.
o Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase the productivity of pastures but may also
decrease their quality. Increases in atmospheric CO2 can increase the productivity of plants
on which livestock feed. However, the quality of some of the forage found in pasturelands
decreases with higher CO2. As a result, cattle would need to eat more to get the same
nutritional benefits.
C) Climate Change Impact on Fisheries:
o Many fisheries already face multiple stresses, including overfishing and water pollution.
Climate change may worsen these stresses. In particular, temperature changes could lead
to significant impacts.

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 o Some marine disease outbreaks have been linked with changing climate. Higher water
temperatures and higher estuarine salinities have enabled an oyster parasite to spread
farther north along the Atlantic coast.
o Changes in temperature and seasons can affect the timing of reproduction and migration.
Many steps within an aquatic animal's lifecycle are controlled by temperature and the
changing of the seasons.

Figure 8: The annual centers of biomass for three species in the northeastern United
States from 1968 to 2015.
Source: US EPA (2016). Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Marine Species Distribution. Data Source:
NOAA (2016).

4. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Availability.

The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail,
consumption, loss, and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the
livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than
30%. However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million
children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron
deficiency.

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 o The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income
growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and
non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access,
utilization, and stability).
o Climate change is already affecting food security through increasing temperatures, changing
precipitation patterns, and greater frequency of some extreme events.
o Food security will be increasingly affected by projected future climate change.
o Fruit and vegetable production, a key component of healthy diets, is also vulnerable to
climate change.
o Food security and climate change have strong gender and equity dimensions:
Worldwide, women play a key role in food security, although regional differences exist.
Climate change impacts vary among diverse social groups depending on age, ethnicity,
gender, wealth, and class.
o Impacts of Climate Change on Food Utilization: Climate change will also affect the
ability of individuals to use food effectively by altering the conditions for food safety and
changing the disease pressure from vector, water, and food-borne diseases. The main concern
about climate change and food security is that changing climatic conditions can initiate a
vicious circle where infectious disease causes or compounds hunger, which, in turn, makes
the affected populations more susceptible to infectious disease. The result can be a substantial
decline in labor productivity and an increase in poverty and even mortality. Essentially all
manifestations of climate change, be they drought, higher temperatures, or heavy rainfalls
have an impact on the disease pressure, and there is growing evidence that these changes
affect food safety and food security.

5. Climate Change and Food Production: Bangladesh Perspective

Bangladesh predominantly depends on agriculture, which is strongly dependent on seasonal

weather patterns and climatic conditions. Agricultural in Bangladesh has been greatly influenced
by seasonal characteristic and climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day
length, etc. Crop agriculture is often constrained by different hazards and disasters such as floods,
droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclones, and storm surges. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

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Laboratory (GFDL) model predicted an approximate 17% decline in overall rice production for
Bangladesh and as high as a 61 percent decline in wheat production under a 4oC change in
temperature. The highest impact would therefore be on wheat followed by rice. The Canadian
Climate Change Model (CCCM) also predicted a significant fall in food-grain production. Extreme
temperature due to climate change would affect livestock.

High temperatures cause great discomfort, decrease feed intake, and alter nutrient metabolism,
leading to high loss of energy. The combined effects of discomfort and nutrient metabolisms
reduce animals’ productivity, resulting in financial losses for the farmers.
Apart from extreme temperature, natural disasters such as cyclones and tidal surges, as mentioned
previously, cause immense loss and suffering to livestock through destruction of forage crops as
well as shelter.

6. Controlling The Impact of Climate Change on Food Production and

Availability:

Many practices can be optimized and scaled up to advance adaptation throughout the food system
to control the Impact of Climate Change on Food Production and Availability. Some of the
initiatives are:

Supply-side Adaptions: Supply-side options include increased soil organic matter and erosion
control, improved cropland, livestock, grazing land management, and genetic improvements for
tolerance to heat and drought. Diversification in the food system (e.g., implementation of
integrated production systems, broad-based genetic resources, and heterogeneous diets) is a key
strategy to reduce risks.

Demand-side Adaptation: It includes adoption of healthy and sustainable diets, in conjunction

with reduction in food loss and waste, can contribute to adaptation through reduction in additional
land area needed for food production and associated food system vulnerabilities.

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Reducing the Green House Gas Emission
from Every Steps in Food Production: About
21–37% of total greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions are attributable to the food system.
These are from agriculture and land use, storage,
transport, packaging, processing, retail, and
consumption. Supply-side practices can
contribute to climate change mitigation by
reducing crop and livestock emissions,
sequestering carbon in soils and biomass, and by
decreasing emissions intensity within sustainable
production systems.

Eating Healthy Sustainable Diets: Consumption of healthy and sustainable diets presents major
opportunities for reducing GHG emissions
from food systems and improving health
outcomes. Examples of healthy and
sustainable diets are high in coarse grains,
pulses, fruits and vegetables, and nuts and
seeds; low in energy-intensive animal-
sourced and discretionary foods (such as
sugary beverages); and with a carbohydrate
threshold

Reduction of Food Waste: Reduction of

food loss and waste could lower GHG
emissions and improve food security.

Proper Governance and Policies: For adaptation and mitigation throughout the food system,
enabling conditions need to be created through policies, markets, institutions, and governance.

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7. Conclusion:

Climate change affects the global food system in such a way that those who already suffer from
hunger and undernutrition are those most vulnerable to these added threats. Climate change may
affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production, to changes in
markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. By promoting enhanced production of
healthy and nutritious foods while also improving markets in low-income countries, we can lower
prices and increase accessibility of healthy and sustainable diets. Politicians can also tackle
systemic inequalities by redirecting agricultural subsidies to promote healthy foods, as well as
investing in infrastructure like rural roads, electricity, storage, and cooling chain. Change must
happen at every level if we want to build a better food system. International participation and
resource-sharing can spread regional solutions across countries. And working for change at the
ground level—among individuals, communities, local and federal governments, and private
entities—can help fight hunger and food inequality firsthand.

References
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https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2018/07/25/climate-change-food-agriculture/

2. Climate Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA.
(2017). United States Environmental Protection Agency.
https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-
food-supply_.html

3. Driver, K. (2019, November 19). Food and Climate Change. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg
School of Public Health. https://www.foodsystemprimer.org/food-production/food-and-
climate-change/

4. FutureLearn. (2021, February 4). Impact of climate change on agriculture.

https://www.futurelearn.com/info/courses/climate-smart-agriculture/0/steps/26565

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6. Hossain, M., & Majumder, A. (2018). Impact of climate change on agricultural production
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8. National Geographic Society. (2019, March 27). Climate Change.

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