Reg. No.

Question Paper Code : 89516

M.Tech. (Five Years) Dual DEGREE (B.Tech./M.Tech.) EXAMINATIONS,

NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2021.

Fifth Semester

Software Engineering

UMA 51 — PROBABILITY AND QUEUING THEORY

(Common to Information Technology)

(Regulations 2008)

Time : Three hours Maximum : 100 marks

Answer ALL questions.

PART A — (10  2 = 20 marks)

1. Assuming neither A nor B has zero probability, if A and B are mutually

exclusive, will they be independent?
2. Let X be a random variable with probability density function
1
 if x   1,3
f x    4 . Find  x t  .
 0 otherwise

3. In a house, an attempt is made to kill the rats. If the probability of killing a rat
is 0.4, what is the probability that a rat will be killed on tenth attempt?

  
4. If X is a uniformly distributed random variable in   ,  , find the pdf of
 2 2
Y  tan X .

5. The two lines of regression are 8x  10 y  66  0; 40x  18 y  214  0. Find the

mean values of x and y.
6. State Central limit theorem.
7. Define strictly sense stationary process.
8. Define Markov process.
9. Write down Little’s formula for the queuing model (MIM/1) (N/FIFO).
10. What are the characteristics of a queuing system?
 PART B — (5  16 = 80 marks)

11. (a) (i) A random variable X has the following probability distribution
x: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
p(x) : 0 k 2k 2k 3k k2 2k2 7k2+k
Find
(1) the value of K
(2) P 1.5  X  4.5 X  2 and

1
(3) the smallest value of  for which P X     . (8)
2
(ii) There are 3 true coins and 1 false coin with ‘head’ on both sides. A
coin is chosen at random and tossed 4 times. If ‘head’ occurs all the
4 times, what is the probability that the false coin has been chosen
and used? (8)
Or

(b) (i) The probability function of an infinite discrete distribution is given

1
by P X  j   j , j  1,2,... Verify that the total probability is 1 and
2
find the mean and variance of the distribution. Find also
P X is even  , P X  5 and P X is divisible by 3 . (8)

(ii) Find the moment generating function of binomial distribution and

hence find its mean and variance. (8)

12. (a) (i) In a large consignment of electric bulbs, 10 percent are defective. A
random sample of 20 is taken for inspection. Find the probability
that (1) all are good bulbs (2) at most there are 3 defective bulbs
(3) exactly there are 3 defective bulbs. (8)

(ii) Find the moment generating function of Poisson distribution and

hence find its mean and variance. (8)

Or

(b) (i) State and prove memory less property of exponential distribution.
Use it to solve the following problem.

The time (in Hours) required to repair a machine is exponentially

1
distributed with parameter   . What is the conditional
2
probability that a repair takes at atleast 10 h given that its
duration exceeds 9 h? (10)

(ii) Find the moment generating function of Gamma distribution. (6)

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13. (a) (i) The joint distribution of X and Y is given by p(x, y) = k (2x + 3y) for
x = 0,1,2 and y = 1,2,3. Find the marginal distribution of X and Y,
the conditional distribution of X for given Y = 1 and the conditional
distribution of Y for the given X = 2. (8)

(ii) The joint probability density function of a two dimensional random

variable X ,Y  is given by f x , y   kxye  x , x  0, y  0 . Find the
2
 y2

value of k . Are X & Y independent. (8)

Or

(b) (i) Obtain the two regression lines from the following data: (8)
x 22 26 29 30 31 31 34 35

y 20 20 21 29 27 24 27 31

(ii) If X i , i  1,2,3...50, are independendent random variables each

having a poisson distribution with   0.03 and
Sn  X 1  X 2  X 3  ....  X n evaluate P Sn  3 using Central limit
theorem. (8)

14. (a) (i) Show that the random process X(t) = 10 cos(200t +  ) is wide sense
stationary where  is a uniformly distributed random variable in
0,2  . (8)

(ii) Briefly explain birth and death process. (8)

Or

(b) (i) Prove that the difference of two independence Poisson processes is
not a Poisson process. (8)

(ii) The transition probability matrix of a Markov chain

 0 . 1 0 . 5 0 .4 
 
X n , n  1,2,3,.... having 3 states 1, 2 and 3 is P =  0.6 0.2 0.2 
 0 .3 0 .4 0 . 3 
 
and the initial distribution is p 0  = (0.7,0.2,0.1). Find P X 2  3
and P X 3  2, X 2  3, X 1  3, X 0  2 . (8)

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15. (a) A bank has two counters for with drawals counter I handles with drawals
of value less than . 3000 and counter II . 3000 and above. Analysis of
service time shows a negative exponential distribution with mean service
time of 6 minutes per customer for both the counters. Arrival of
customers follows Poisson distribution with mean 8 per hour for counter I
and 5 per hour for counter II. What are the average waiting times per
customer of each counter? If each counter could handle all withdrawals
irrespective of their value, how would the average waiting time change?
(16)

Or
(b) For {(M/G/I) (  /FCFS)} queueing model, derive the Pollaczek-Khintehine
formula for expected number of customers in the system. (16)

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