January Call Forecast Summary ‘Ambulance Emergency: ERT forecasting was initially completed for January during November (refined early December) when Delta cases were steadily dropping. Increased public capacity and social mixing, with the ‘admixture of Omicron variant had asserted themselves by Christmas. The New Year weekend, traditionally a high demand period, combined with heat health alerts and escalating transmission rates began January with record volumes. Although volumes declined in the second half of the month, we saw the second highest ever recorded monthly demand, A forecast recut - increasing the expected number of calls - was added on 2/1. Code Brown was declared on 18/1 and greater ‘ambulance availability suppressed 000 demand for the next month, which was reflected in forecast amendments from that date. Police + SES: Main review of January forecast was initially completed in late Nov with a view that lockdown easing could potentially increase volumes back toward pre-pandemic levels. ‘After considering various factors including the holiday periods in January, intelligence from VICPOL regarding major public events - the Police/SES forecast was set to follow a 2% increase from the corresponding period in 2021. ‘The expectation however was for actual volumes to be lower than forecast due primarily to ongoing effect of shadow lockdown which was seen throughout late Nov and Dec 2021. ‘This high forecast was conservative in nature to help maintain staffing at levels greater than what was expected to be required. Weather information together with severe thunderstorms was also monitored throughout the month to ensure changes were made as required, particularly for SES call activity. January ended up being close to 18% lower than 2021 and 2020 and service level targets were achieved. FSV + CFA: After review of the emerging trends from the beginning of Fire season, together with climate drivers such as persitent La Nina conditions, the FSV/CFA forecast was set at a level consistent with alow activity fire season as predicted by BOM in Sept/Oct. “This was adjusted as FOR ratings and weather information (particularly windspeeds and rainfall lable throughout the month.Call Forecast Data: 1/01/2022 696 5551 3368 | - 2/01/2022 446 4142 3027 | - 3/01/2022 391 3853 3016 | - 4/01/2022 357 3749 3534 361 5/01/2022 327 3780 3500 348 6/01/2022 417 4259 3476 343 7/01/2022 613 4953 3574 353 8/01/2022 813 4141 3457 | - 9/01/2022 584 3931 3476 | - 10/01/2022 524 3467 3610 371 11/01/2022 300 3445 3360 374 12/01/2022 287 3399 3432 360 13/01/2022 313 3429 3408 345 14/01/2022 371 3960 3504 354 15/01/2022 454 4373, 3232 | - 16/01/2022 316 4062 3362 | - 17/01/2022 286 3717 3300 374 18/01/2022 270 3587 3195 371 19/01/2022 257 3581 3166 360 20/01/2022 286 3693 3190 361 21/01/2022 336 4085 3306 367 22/01/2022 401 4476 3275 | - 23/01/2022 295 4245 3309 | - 24/01/2022 264 3603 3350 372 25/01/2022 257 3761 3165 377 26/01/2022 246 4306 3038 | - 27/01/2022 279 4336 3128 391 28/01/2022 332 5040, 3110 363 29/01/2022 412 4204 2937 | - 30/01/2022 303 4045 2973 | - 31/01/2022 278 3768 3052 381