Tyler Younge

Professor Herrera

ENC 2135

1/25/2022

Overpopulation

As a topic that could frankly change the fate of humanity within the decades to come,

overpopulation is an intricate concern that is increasingly coming to the attention of nations

worldwide. Although estimates vary, the world population is expected to reach between 8.5 to 12

billion by the year 2100. With current technology and available resources, many scientists

project the world’s carrying capacity to be around ten billion people, suggesting that the current

population trajectory is far ahead of what our planet is able to support. As the severity of

overpopulation rises, scientists are looking towards practical solutions to tackle the numerous

problems that are associated with a rise in population such as, access to food, water,

transportation, housing, energy, healthcare, environmental damage, disease control, and

territorial disputes. Many countries, particularly undeveloped nations, are already experiencing

these issues, as they lack the wealth that is needed to support just the basic needs of citizens,

resulting in minimal leftover funds to direct towards population control, leaving them in a

continuous loop of a climbing population. This paper will provide background information to the

state of overpopulation that exists today, as well as analyze the core issues of present-day global

overpopulation and their potential risk to the future of humanity.

Context of today’s current state of population

 Since human beings began to form populations and come together as a means for

survival, increasing numbers was often advantageous when it came to hunting for food, fighting

off rival groups, surviving natural disasters, etc. In fact, increasing the population as much as

possible proved to be advantageous all the way up until the industrial revolution where

innovative technology was being produced constantly, that made it easier to survive, acquire

basic needs, and most importantly, to live longer. As stated by Professor William Penfound in his

work, The Problems of Overpopulation,

Now, we air-condition the tropics, drain the swamps, water the desert and warm the arctics. We

control disease, eliminate plagues and reduce infant deaths almost to zero. Man's greatest

remaining threat to survival on this planet is finally man himself - through his power to

exterminate all of mankind in war, and through his new ability to overpopulate the finite land

masses of earth," in other words, through depopulation by nuclear warfare or overpopulation by

excessive breeding.1

As shown by this quotation, in the last one percent of humanities existence, technology has made

such a drastic difference in how we live our lives to the point where we no longer have to worry

about primal concerns, but rather, now the concern has shifted to producing technology that

allows humans to live more sustainably as natural resources diminish and the extent of

untouched land on earth diminishes. In other words, “The trouble is that industrial man has

raised not only his productivity but also his reproductivity, and the latter is now threatening to

outrun the former”.

Environmental and Natural resources concerns

1
Penfound, William T. “The Problems of Overpopulation.” Bios, vol. 39, no. 2, Beta Beta Beta
Biological Society, 1968, pp. 56–62, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4606831.
 As mankind’s population increases, so does the severity of the risks associated with a

high population such as access to food, water, transportation, housing, energy, healthcare,

environmental damage, and disease control. While humanity creeps closer and closer to the

earth’s estimated carrying capacity, competition for a favorable standard of living will grow as

the resources we appreciate today become more and more scarce. Of those resources, the two of

most concern are the basic needs of food and water. In less wealthy countries, access to these

basic needs is already a great concern with the state of our current population, let alone ten

billion people. In nations that already struggle with poverty and a lack of resources, families are

often practically bound to having many children to support the family, only increasing the

problem of overpopulation. Regarding access to water, although it is a popular belief that water

is an unlimited resource, fresh water for human consumption is undoubtedly finite, making up

roughly three percent of available water on Earth. As stated by Daniel Altieri in his article titled,

The Effects of Overpopulation on Water Resources and Water Security,

Approximately fifty percent of the worlds’ population will be living in regions around the globe

that are considered “water stressed”, a term defined as when the demand for water exceeds the

amount that is available, either due to lack of it, or poor quality, by the year 2030 (compared to

fifteen percent currently)2

As roughly ten percent of today’s population lives in extreme poverty, the majority of the world

has yet to experience what it's like to have to go without food or water. With the current statistic

of fifteen percent of people living in water stressed areas, the wealthier population of people

worldwide has most likely had ample access to drinking water. Whereas in thirty years where the

2
Altieri, Daniel. "The effects of overpopulation on water resources and water
security." Department of Engineering, Swarthmore College. Available from fubini.
swarthmore. edu/~ ENVS2/dan/Essay4. html (2016)
percentage of people living in water stressed areas is expected to skyrocket from fifteen to fifty,

even those who have been used to having access to as much drinking water as they please will be

forced to live with restricted access to water as roughly half of the human inhabited world will be

considered “water stressed”. On top of a demand for drinkable water, an often-forgotten aspect

of a water shortage is that water is also essential for agriculture, the revolutionary concept that

shifted the population from a few million hunter-gatherers to producing enough food to feed

billions. However, as humans reproduce faster than basic needs can be produced, chaos will

certainly arise.

Along with water, food security is also a major concern, as it has been an everlasting problem

before the concept of overpopulation ever existed. As water and food production are linked, its

important to understand how much effort is put into modern food production. An article written

by scientists at Stanford University states,

To produce enough food to sustain the planet’s population, it is estimated that 52.8 million

gallons of water per second are required. Of our total water consumption, food accounts for

roughly 66%. It is ubiquitously hidden in everything we consume. For example, one needs 240

gallons of water to produce a loaf of bread.3

As sixty six percent of global water consumption is devoted to just food production, agricultural

innovations will be essential in preparing the globe for the next few billions of people, or else

major famine will most likely occur.

As more people populate the planet, it is a given that more people will spread out and

begin to habit areas that were once untouched by man, thus raising environmental concerns. The

3
“Overpopulation Effects.” Everything Connects,
https://www.everythingconnects.org/overpopulation-effects.html.
surface area expansion of mankind not only causes habitat loss, but mowing down millions of

trees and the wildlife that once lived there can also cause a chain reaction of associated

problems. Most importantly, the demolition of habitats further escalates the loss of biodiversity,

adding on to what is one of the greatest mass extinctions in the history of Earth. As stated in an

article written by an Environmentalists organization called Everything Connects,

If present trends continue, scientists warn that within a few decades, at least half of all plant and

animal species on Earth will be extinct, as a result of climate change, habitat loss, pollution,

acidifying oceans, invasive species, over-exploitation of natural resources, overfishing, poaching

and human overpopulation. Human overpopulation has been dominating planetary physical,

chemical, and biological conditions and limits.4

Along with a loss of biodiversity, habitat loss also additionally cuts into our finite supply of

natural resources which increases the urgency of the need for technological advancements that

allow people to use sustainable energy at a feasible price. Lastly, human expansion worsens the

effects of climate change which may one day become unreversible if current trends continue.

Humanitarian concerns

As the population count climbs into the double digits, not only are the natural elements a

concern, but also humanitarian aspects such as transportation, housing, and disease control.

Although these concerns are focused on the standard of living within cities, a rise in population

often leads to the creation and expansion of cities, as roughly half of the world’s population

4
Permaculture by Local Food Initiative | Flickr. “Overpopulation and Water Scarcity Leading to
World Future Food Crisis.” MAHB, 10 Dec. 2021,
https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/overpopulation-and-water-scarcity-leading-to-world-
future-food-crisis/.
currently lives within urban areas.5 Although not much can be done to stop the spread of

communicable diseases within crowded areas, interests in urban planning has grown as more

people are flooding into and around cities. With an excessive amount of people crowding into

tight areas, having enough space for everyone to live and commute around the city will prove to

be an issue, as most cities' transportation systems and housing layouts are set to function and

operate with a certain amount of people. As these basic infrastructure systems slowly experience

an increase in numbers, particularly of the elderly population, many necessary changes will need

to occur in the near future, adding further stress to nations and cities worldwide.

In discussions concerning overpopulation and its risks, one of the often-untouched

subjects is the possibility of violent altercations over land and resources as they become scarce.

As territorial disputes have been a characteristic of humans since the beginning of time, large

scale conflicts are bound to occur if humanity is ever faced with such dire complications. As

stated quite frankly by Penfound, “Over-population inevitably results in war because "it is not

conceivable that human beings will ever hesitate to kill one another when . . . they find that war

is the only alternative to starvation." The idea of having to resort to violence to resolve

overpopulation problems is not a common resolution because of the cruelty associated with the

circumstance, but many history books point towards the common theme of resorting to violence

when it becomes the very last option.

Past and future efforts

In the last few decades, an increasing amount of attention has been shifted towards the

problem of overpopulation, and fields ranging from urban planning to sustainable energy have

5
“Overview.” World Bank, www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#1.
been involved in two core strategies. Slowing down or even reversing the increase in population

and inventing new technologies to help the earth sustain more people. In past efforts, countries

like China have initiated laws such as their one child policy, while other nations have

implemented family planning programs that advocate for women’s rights and sexual education

curriculums.6 Although these programs have been in place for decades, and have certainly

benefited countries that were in desperate need, on a global scale, these programs have not been

effective enough, as population growth trajectories still point towards unsustainable numbers.

Of all the causes of overpopulation, the deepest-rooted cause is undoubtedly extreme

poverty. As many developed countries have an average family size of one to two children,

families in developing countries often have double or triple the number of children in order to

support their family financially. Based on this occurrence, the most logical and effective means

of slowing down overpopulation is to eliminate poverty and educate the masses on concepts such

as birth control. Of course, the idea of eliminating poverty is much easier said than done, so as an

alternative, a lot of attention has been put into scientific fields in an effort to prepare the world

for a double-digit population rather than just trying to prevent it. The most successful efforts in

preparing for overpopulation has been the recent progress made in the renewable energy field.

Although many experts are skeptical as to the possibility of slowing down or even

reversing the climb in population, the numerous risks such as access to food, water,

transportation, housing and energy have caught the attention of experts in many fields

worldwide, and it seems like action is finally being taken. Even though the threat of

overpopulation isn't covering the front page of every news article or broadcast, its slow but sure

6
Pimentel, David, et al. “Overpopulation and Sustainability.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment,
vol. 4, no. 3, Ecological Society of America, 2006, pp. 155–61, http://www.jstor.org/stable/3868686.
progress could eventually lead to one of the biggest challenges humanity has ever faced as the

possibilities of what could happen are seemingly endless. In an intriguing article written by

Thomas Jukes, he states, “The primary cause of death is, of course birth, and overpopulation is

inseparable from births, except that everyone's definition of overpopulation necessarily is the

birth of other people than himself.”7 In this unusual take on the concept of overpopulation, Jukes

allows his readers to question the true cause of death for every war, famine, or pandemic that

humanity has ever encountered. In other words, also stated by Jukes, “people die because they

were there”.

Works Cited

7
Jukes, Thomas H. “Overpopulation.” Science, vol. 173, no. 3996, American Association for the
Advancement of Science, 1971, pp. 475–475, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1732227.
 Altieri, Daniel. "The effects of overpopulation on water resources and water

security." Department of Engineering, Swarthmore College. Available from

fubini. swarthmore. edu/~ ENVS2/dan/Essay4. html (2016)

 Penfound, William T. “The Problems of Overpopulation.” Bios, vol. 39, no. 2, Beta Beta

Beta Biological Society, 1968, pp. 56–62, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4606831.

 Permaculture by Local Food Initiative | Flickr. “Overpopulation and Water Scarcity Leading to

World Future Food Crisis.” MAHB, 10 Dec. 2021,

https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/overpopulation-and-water-scarcity-leading-to-world-

future-food-crisis/.

 “Overpopulation Effects.” Everything Connects,

https://www.everythingconnects.org/overpopulation-effects.html.

 “Overview.” World Bank, www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview#1.

 Pimentel, David, et al. “Overpopulation and Sustainability.” Frontiers in Ecology and the

Environment, vol. 4, no. 3, Ecological Society of America, 2006, pp. 155–61,

http://www.jstor.org/stable/3868686.

 Jukes, Thomas H. “Overpopulation.” Science, vol. 173, no. 3996, American Association

for the Advancement of Science, 1971, pp. 475–475,

http://www.jstor.org/stable/1732227.